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She's playing the waiting game.... Waiting for (A) He gets convicted of one or more of his numerous crimes (B) The steady diet of fast food and his obesity lets mother nature take her course (C) His steady and apparent cognitive decline reach a crescendo when at one of his rallies he drops trow and has a bowel movement
I'm not a gambling man, but even so all those are worth a wager if the payoff is the eventual Republican nomination. The super PAC backing her seems pretty well funded and to be spending shrewdly. Given that a Haley/Biden matchup looks winnable, it's got to be worth a punt to the billionaires who have her in their pockets.
40% of the GOP said NO to Trump.
Biden is off winning 95%+ of the Dem vote, while Donnie Dementia is struggling to even get 60%
4 more years of Biden and a booming economy, lets go Bradon!
Even as late as Thursday he was predicted to win by 31 points.
"As of Thursday afternoon, Trump led Haley by almost a two-to-one margin, 64 percent to 33 percent, in 538's South Carolina polling average"
https://abcnews.go.com/538/south-carolinas-conservative-electorate-trump-big-edge/story?id=107445937
Funny how the media never reports the results this way. If Biden was only pulling 60 percent of the primary vote it would be seen as a collosal failure.
The Republican Party primaries represent 5-10% of Republican voters in each state.
In Iowa, 49% of Republican caucus voters refused to support Trump. He only won 51%.
In New Hampshire, 43% of Republican primary voters chose Haley. There is the caveat that NH allows independents to vote in that primary. 54% chose Trump.
In Nevada, 31% of Republican primary voters chose Haley. 63% chose Trump.
Keep in mind that about 40-70% of Haley voters will not vote for Trump in a general election. This means that of the Republican base, 5-15% will defect and vote Biden or third party in a Biden/Trump rematch. Trump already lost independents in the 2020 election and must win them back for 2024, yet has instead lost 10% of his own party.
To compare with the Democratic primaries, Biden won 64% in NH, 95% in SC, and 89% in NV.
Trump won 54% in NH, 60% in SC, 63% in NV, and 51% in IA.
Both Biden and Trump are considered incumbents for their party. A successful incumbent would win with the margins Biden has shown. A losing incumbent would barely win a majority, which is what Trump is showing.
Do not get complacent though. Get out and vote in every election. Get your family and friends to vote in every election. Complacency gave Trump his 2016 win. The Republicans used the OH and VA elections in 2023 to test drive their voter suppression and gerrymandering strategies. Every voter convicted of voter fraud since 2020 has been a Republican or independent Trump voter. People need to vote so overwhelmingly for Democrats the Republican attempts to cheat are blown out of the water.
Trump is not the incumbent. Only Groover Cleveland has been sworn in as president again after losing an election. If Trump can continue carrying on by winning like this, republicans will fall in line.
You could argue Biden is running unopposed because democrats are rallying around him. Trump is essentially the incumbent for Republicans, and party leadership is treating him as such. It’s really surprising Haley can get 40% of a deep red state.
You could, but it is a ridiculous position to take. It is the incumbent’s (and maybe their family’s) responsibility to say enough is enough and have an actual robust primary with debates and multiple candidates by stepping aside.
We are looking down the barrel of a Kamala presidency and having this same “incumbent” narrative in 2028.
Cherry picking words doesn't make something true. How many incumbents have lost in the primaries? How many times has someone that lost the presidency once has held a big of a margin of victory as Trump?
For the last one it's not many, not because of Trump, because there is a pageantry and ceremony to elections too. Off the top of my head I can only think of two former presidents running after losing an election: Cleveland and Teddy Roosevelt.
That's cuz Trump is a non-incumbent running against a credible opponent in her home state. He's projected to beat Haley by a bigger margin in Michigan. Biden otoh would get crushed by Whitmer in Michigan. Biden should be replaced with Whitmer.
Tell us you don't live in Michigan without saying "I've never even been near a Great Lake". None of us want Whitmer to leave the governor's office before 2026, the actual end of her term. Not to mention that she has said repeatedly that she is uninterested in running for president in 2024 and she's one of the co-chairs of Biden's reelection campaign.
Stop peddling this divisive nonsense, Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee.
She’s staying in because she knows he’s guilty of criminal behavior and is going to be held accountable for it and it’s going to be there to pick up the pace right after he gets taken down
The only reason he would get taken down is because he actually did commit crimes
Nobody is witch hunting, nobody made him do it he did it of his own free will
The issue for Haley is that Trump will have locked up the delegate count before anything major happens on the legal front. They will be Trump delegates. They will never back Haley.
Despite it being winner take all for the delegates, Haley got 2/3 as many votes as Trump in SC. That is hardly a major victory and indicates a lot of division within the GOP.
It’s a reflection of the sorry state of journalism in the US that no news source (to my knowledge) is highlighting the drastic decline in Donnie’s winning percentage in all GOP 2024 primaries compared to 2020 primaries. I would estimate that he’s taking 20-30% less of the vote in all GOP 2024 primaries to date.
Imagine if Biden had opponents in the Dem primaries who were garnering 30%, 40%, or even 50% of the vote (as has been the case for Trump); media would have been all over it, screaming hysterically about a crisis in confidence for the presumed nominee. Trump’s false claim that the GOP has never been more united is, characteristically for him, a big fat delusional insecurity-induced lie.
I don't understand why Biden and the Democratic leadership don't push for all Democrats to vote for Haley. If Trump loses the primary, he’ll run third party guaranteed. Why wouldn’t the Dems want that?
Only a limited number of states have open primaries in which any registered voter can vote, regardless of party affiliation. In most other states, Democratic voters would actually have to change party affiliation in advance in order to vote in the Republican primary. The subsequent downside in some Democratic primaries might then be that the turnout/perceived support for Biden would fall and/or that other Democratic candidates would have a good showing vs. Biden - either of which would be terrible optics.
Because polls show Nikki beats Biden by a wide margin but Biden has a chance against Trump.
Regardless, I live in an open primary and will be voting for Nikki or Dean because voting for Biden is throwing your vote away in the primary.
She’ll be in the race until the convention. The elites backing her already have the script. They don’t want Trump bankrupting the RNC to pay for his legal bills. They firmly believe he will be held accountable and will be convicted criminally before July and they have a shot to flip delegates to Haley during the convention (because rules) even if she loses almost every primary. The ultra rich are in survival mode.
After this goes down and they inevitably fail, I wouldn’t be surprised “if” Trump wins the Presidency he doesn’t just increase taxes on the rich out of spite.
Aside from any wrongdoing or whatever, he could just pop his clogs with a stroke or something. Same for Biden, although he doesn’t seem to subsist solely on McDonalds.
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
She's playing the waiting game.... Waiting for (A) He gets convicted of one or more of his numerous crimes (B) The steady diet of fast food and his obesity lets mother nature take her course (C) His steady and apparent cognitive decline reach a crescendo when at one of his rallies he drops trow and has a bowel movement
C, A and B...in that order please
I'm not a gambling man, but even so all those are worth a wager if the payoff is the eventual Republican nomination. The super PAC backing her seems pretty well funded and to be spending shrewdly. Given that a Haley/Biden matchup looks winnable, it's got to be worth a punt to the billionaires who have her in their pockets.
She is the- “Understudy “ and all that goes with it.
40% of the GOP said NO to Trump. Biden is off winning 95%+ of the Dem vote, while Donnie Dementia is struggling to even get 60% 4 more years of Biden and a booming economy, lets go Bradon!
Not only that, but a month ago Haley was projected to lose by 40 points. She's clearly closing the gap.
Even as late as Thursday he was predicted to win by 31 points. "As of Thursday afternoon, Trump led Haley by almost a two-to-one margin, 64 percent to 33 percent, in 538's South Carolina polling average" https://abcnews.go.com/538/south-carolinas-conservative-electorate-trump-big-edge/story?id=107445937
Right now it is a waiting game. She just has to wait out the court cases.
I think the gap is closing. If she can stay the course more will see that dumping Trump makes sense for a real shot in November.
Funny how the media never reports the results this way. If Biden was only pulling 60 percent of the primary vote it would be seen as a collosal failure.
Well he is old... CNN probably
While simultaneously ignoring that trump is almost as old.
The Republican Party primaries represent 5-10% of Republican voters in each state. In Iowa, 49% of Republican caucus voters refused to support Trump. He only won 51%. In New Hampshire, 43% of Republican primary voters chose Haley. There is the caveat that NH allows independents to vote in that primary. 54% chose Trump. In Nevada, 31% of Republican primary voters chose Haley. 63% chose Trump. Keep in mind that about 40-70% of Haley voters will not vote for Trump in a general election. This means that of the Republican base, 5-15% will defect and vote Biden or third party in a Biden/Trump rematch. Trump already lost independents in the 2020 election and must win them back for 2024, yet has instead lost 10% of his own party. To compare with the Democratic primaries, Biden won 64% in NH, 95% in SC, and 89% in NV. Trump won 54% in NH, 60% in SC, 63% in NV, and 51% in IA. Both Biden and Trump are considered incumbents for their party. A successful incumbent would win with the margins Biden has shown. A losing incumbent would barely win a majority, which is what Trump is showing. Do not get complacent though. Get out and vote in every election. Get your family and friends to vote in every election. Complacency gave Trump his 2016 win. The Republicans used the OH and VA elections in 2023 to test drive their voter suppression and gerrymandering strategies. Every voter convicted of voter fraud since 2020 has been a Republican or independent Trump voter. People need to vote so overwhelmingly for Democrats the Republican attempts to cheat are blown out of the water.
Don’t kid yourself. They will fall in line. Republicans always do.
Trump is not the incumbent. Only Groover Cleveland has been sworn in as president again after losing an election. If Trump can continue carrying on by winning like this, republicans will fall in line.
> 40% of the GOP said NO to Trump. that's only in SC, in Iowa, it was 49%
[удалено]
doesn't change the fact I laid out
Biden is also the incumbent president and is running almost unopposed. Cherry picking can be done many different ways.
You could argue Biden is running unopposed because democrats are rallying around him. Trump is essentially the incumbent for Republicans, and party leadership is treating him as such. It’s really surprising Haley can get 40% of a deep red state.
You could, but it is a ridiculous position to take. It is the incumbent’s (and maybe their family’s) responsibility to say enough is enough and have an actual robust primary with debates and multiple candidates by stepping aside. We are looking down the barrel of a Kamala presidency and having this same “incumbent” narrative in 2028.
Cherry picking words doesn't make something true. How many incumbents have lost in the primaries? How many times has someone that lost the presidency once has held a big of a margin of victory as Trump? For the last one it's not many, not because of Trump, because there is a pageantry and ceremony to elections too. Off the top of my head I can only think of two former presidents running after losing an election: Cleveland and Teddy Roosevelt.
That's cuz Trump is a non-incumbent running against a credible opponent in her home state. He's projected to beat Haley by a bigger margin in Michigan. Biden otoh would get crushed by Whitmer in Michigan. Biden should be replaced with Whitmer.
Tell us you don't live in Michigan without saying "I've never even been near a Great Lake". None of us want Whitmer to leave the governor's office before 2026, the actual end of her term. Not to mention that she has said repeatedly that she is uninterested in running for president in 2024 and she's one of the co-chairs of Biden's reelection campaign. Stop peddling this divisive nonsense, Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee.
She’s staying in because she knows he’s guilty of criminal behavior and is going to be held accountable for it and it’s going to be there to pick up the pace right after he gets taken down The only reason he would get taken down is because he actually did commit crimes Nobody is witch hunting, nobody made him do it he did it of his own free will
homie trump will be on the ballot in november. no chance he's held accountable even a little bit before the election.
Every vote for her is a no to Trumpism.
Biden vs Haley, Trump vs Courts 2024.
She lost, but by less than last time, and trump knows it. I hope she keeps bugging him.
To be fair, it was in her own turf. Will be interested to see how she performs in Super Tuesday.
Maybe if she had a few more flags, she might convince the racist misogynist base of the Republican Party to vote for her. /s
She's hoping he goes to jail, or luxury golf course arrest
The issue for Haley is that Trump will have locked up the delegate count before anything major happens on the legal front. They will be Trump delegates. They will never back Haley.
Despite it being winner take all for the delegates, Haley got 2/3 as many votes as Trump in SC. That is hardly a major victory and indicates a lot of division within the GOP.
It’s a reflection of the sorry state of journalism in the US that no news source (to my knowledge) is highlighting the drastic decline in Donnie’s winning percentage in all GOP 2024 primaries compared to 2020 primaries. I would estimate that he’s taking 20-30% less of the vote in all GOP 2024 primaries to date. Imagine if Biden had opponents in the Dem primaries who were garnering 30%, 40%, or even 50% of the vote (as has been the case for Trump); media would have been all over it, screaming hysterically about a crisis in confidence for the presumed nominee. Trump’s false claim that the GOP has never been more united is, characteristically for him, a big fat delusional insecurity-induced lie.
I’d stay in just to watch him rage and the inevitable defamation lawsuit
That’s a lot of flags! Overcompensating much!?
I don't understand why Biden and the Democratic leadership don't push for all Democrats to vote for Haley. If Trump loses the primary, he’ll run third party guaranteed. Why wouldn’t the Dems want that?
Only a limited number of states have open primaries in which any registered voter can vote, regardless of party affiliation. In most other states, Democratic voters would actually have to change party affiliation in advance in order to vote in the Republican primary. The subsequent downside in some Democratic primaries might then be that the turnout/perceived support for Biden would fall and/or that other Democratic candidates would have a good showing vs. Biden - either of which would be terrible optics.
Because polls show Nikki beats Biden by a wide margin but Biden has a chance against Trump. Regardless, I live in an open primary and will be voting for Nikki or Dean because voting for Biden is throwing your vote away in the primary.
I understand the Koch network just announced they are no longer funding her run?
Yep
She’ll be in the race until the convention. The elites backing her already have the script. They don’t want Trump bankrupting the RNC to pay for his legal bills. They firmly believe he will be held accountable and will be convicted criminally before July and they have a shot to flip delegates to Haley during the convention (because rules) even if she loses almost every primary. The ultra rich are in survival mode. After this goes down and they inevitably fail, I wouldn’t be surprised “if” Trump wins the Presidency he doesn’t just increase taxes on the rich out of spite.
Aside from any wrongdoing or whatever, he could just pop his clogs with a stroke or something. Same for Biden, although he doesn’t seem to subsist solely on McDonalds.
She's waiting to see if Trump is somehow removed from the race. As long as there's a chance of that, she's not going anywhere.