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This is it almost entirely.
White college educated suburban voters were a bedrock group for Republicans since Nixon.
They have shifted dramatically towards democrats post-trump.
There already appears to be an appeal from the new RNC co-chair Lara Trump for more donations to the Trump “legal fund.” It wouldn’t surprise me if these unscrupulous people don’t try to get elderly, white, low information Trump supporters, those who own their own homes, to take out slimy “reverse mortgages” to donate so Trump gets his hands on vast untapped financial resources. No one is going to feel bad for MAGA-hats that are fleeced, but they will have nothing to pass down their heirs. Inherited wealth has been a traditional avenue to become middle class for many, so that hurts younger generations who may not be the gullible rubes their parents are.
Everyone that has lost in life despite privilege can really relate to him. The worst thing is these losers have the time to vote so in a country with low voter turnout and ridiculous voting boundaries they can win
I think it’s a bad idea to push that narrative again, it fucked us last time. I would just target trump, and not rile up his base, those “people” are not going to listen to reason.
This merely feeds into their victim complex and drives in group cohesion. Better to simply stop engaging with them similar to the "grey rock" method of dealing with narcissists or abusive individuals.
The point of speaking up and challenging them in public isn't to convince them to change their views. It's to speak for and defend those who are unable to defend themselves. Letting their views go unchallenged in public just gives them a platform to spread hate unopposed. Staying silent isn't the solution.
You've misunderstood my point completely.
I'm not recommending that people ignore hate speech or abusive behavior. I'm recommending that rather than feed a victim complex with abuse that Trump supporters be treated with as little engagement as possible. I didn't think I had to specifically call out an exemption to this for outright racist or abusive behavior but I suppose "Reddit's gonna reddit".
I understood your point, and I disagree. Taking the high road so far has only encouraged trump and his cult to act worse. They are all bullies. Their default behavior to anyone in the "out group" is abusive. I don't know about you, but ignoring a bully has not once in my entire life ever worked for me. All it did was emboldened them to double down on their behavior.
The only thing a bully understands is force. Engaging with them as little as possible in public and avoiding confrontations just makes them to think they have more support with the public than they do. Silence gives consent.
On the other hand, if they are constantly confronted in public and treated with the scorn they deserve, they will eventually crawl back to the rocks they were hiding under before they felt safe to take the mask off after 2016.
So, now this has had a little while to sit, can you please answer this survey?
Did my calling you a piece of shit
a) cause you to stop speaking publicly
b) have no effect on you speaking publicly
c) increase your desire to speak publicly
In light of this interaction, do you think your plan will
a) have the effect you desire
b) have no discernable effect
c) have the opposite effect from what you desire
If you think that walking up to someone wearing a MAGA hat and telling them that they're a piece of shit makes this a better world to live in then I'd recommend that you treat the mirror the same way.
You're engaging in the same in group / out group dynamics and are supporting that people be bullied solely based on what you think their beliefs are.
And once you've bullied the MAGA supporters into silence, how long before you turn your attention to the next group you don't agree with?
It's true, for the most part they're not good people or, at best, don't consider the wider ramifications of their actions; which I suspect might be something you're also familiar with.
I disagree. It fucked us last time because the average American was absurdly naïve about how fucking depraved and degenerate the core of the red hat base truly are.
HRC was being naïve too, since the whole point of that comment was an attempt to say that while there are deplorable, there are still decent conservative people whom Trump and his ideology don’t represent. The past eight years have shown us that there are almost no conservatives who aren’t willing to jump on Trump’s train to hell. She gave them too much credit.
No, at this point we all know exactly what his base looks like, and “deplorable” is an exceedingly generous adjective.
There isn’t any doubt anymore. In 2016 a lot of moderates thought Trump’s reactionary sideshow was just a political ploy, but now they have seen who he is, and they have seen the character of the people who have lined up behind him.
In terms of long term repair to the fabric of the citizenry, merely targeting Trump himself is a band aid on a deeply infected wound. The real problem are the people who will eagerly prop up someone like Trump. He is going to be gone in ten years or so, but there will be plenty to replace him, and the root problem is the people who will vote for that, not the candidates themselves.
We don’t need to be diplomatic or generous with them anymore. They are deplorable people who fester aggressively outside of the core worldview of a majority of Americans.
Just saying we are wasting time and energy trying to shame these shameful people. They want that. They want to fight. Calling them names they probably don’t even know the meaning of is a waste of time. Just ignore them and vote. Just my opinion based on the last 10 years of this bullshit.
In my opinion, they have to be shamed back under the rocks from which they crept. Before social media made them feel like their echo chamber was the entire world's view and before trump emboldened them into thinking they could see the sun and be accepted, they lived on the outskirts of society. They belong there and their opinions have never mattered. Now the stupid news gives them a sandbox.
No, these people should be shamed every single time they open their mouths by every single person who has the ability to speak. They need to get it through their idiot heads that they aren't the majority, they aren't welcome, and they aren't wanted. Back to the margins they need to go and let the adults handle things, which will inevitably make their pathetic lives better when they get out of their own way.
This isn't the time to be silent and let them be. They are waging war against democracy. Vote, yes, but be very aggressive with these people who are aggressive cowards.
Everything you say is true, but how do you confront gullible people when so many evangelical churches give rise to this patriarchal hierarchy that benefits white, cis, males and makes them feel like they are a coalition of “Christian warriors?” I clearly see that they are being manipulated by fascist power freaks who want to turn the clock back to an imaginary time of “Mad Men” when women and POC were more under their thumbs. They believe they are godly family people. Even women who have been abused mentally and physically into subjugation buy into this myth.
Economically it has been more difficult for previously entitled white males to compete with smart women and POC who have obviously gained some independence. Also, many immigrants are hard workers that often work for less causing employers want to hire them instead of other working class. Therefore, I see the manipulation of the social conservative movement primarily in economic terms. Denying women agency over their own bodies and reproductive decisions, wanting to keep them bare foot and pregnant, is an effort to keep them financially dependent on men, who also become “head of the family.” Attacking LGBTQ is also a way to control “the family” as is, of course, laws restricting divorce. None of this is about “morals” however right wing religiosity frames it that way. To them, equality, inclusion, progression, diversity, and equity are alien terms and those who advocate for freedom and liberty are seen as enemies. So, again, how do you have conversations with so many people who have become right wing zealots?
> those “people” are not going to listen to reason.
Those "people" have also been dying in droves. Boomers are crossing the Rainbow Bridge to the tune of about [3000 per day](https://boont2.medium.com/about-3-000-boomers-die-each-day-and-that-number-will-soon-skyrocket-aae649fcfbfb.) In 2019, [56% of GOP / Lean GOP voters were 50 and older](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/10/26/what-the-2020-electorate-looks-like-by-party-race-and-ethnicity-age-education-and-religion/). Those numbers aren't being made up with new voters in any substantive way no matter how many .02% shifts toward the GOP a demographic makes (which is then reported as "bad for Biden").
They are still dying to covid and now RSV and the Flu are really bad this year too. I'm a healthy, in shape, middle aged person and RSV kicked my ass twice over the holidays.
This - why won’t more media organizations talk about this. For an incumbent who is supposed to have the GOP in the palm of his hand, the fact he isn’t sweeping the primaries with 90%+ of the vote is pretty pathetic.
Edit: Wow lot's of great discussion here! For those interested, Pod Save America had a really good breakdown of the South Carolina results and what some possible takes from it are in their most recent episode, I recommend folks check it out!
It worries me too, but how many of them won't? How many will stay home?
The GOP has done worse than expected in every election since 2016. Several times embarrassingly worse. Overall, this country hates trump. He's supported by a loud, angry minority. Candidates endorsed by him have repeatedly lost over the last 6 years. Aside from the 2016 upset, he has a horrible track record in elections.
2016 was an aberration. The factor that made that possible wasn’t trump. It was the opponent he was running against.
As long as the opponent is “neutral” and not off-putting… R’s get destroyed in every election under this new theory. (That you need not appeal to a broad swath of the electorate… you just need to animate the extreme right fringe).
It's both. It took the perfect storm of 'outsider/businessman' and the very definition of the establishment, embodied in the most vilified boogeyman of RW media history to get him elected by the slimmest margin imaginable.
They still can't or refuse to see it for the Hail Mary, fluke that it was.
They thought lightning would strike twice and if it didn't then surely some SCOTUS gimmick would.
And that’s why we are in a scary place. They refuse to entertain any other path to electoral success.
They have tunnel vision on this extreme angle.
Which, quite simply, cannot work in a functioning democracy.
So they came to a crossroads where they need to pick a different lane and try to win democratically… or they have to reject democracy.
And they blew past that intersection without even, seriously, considering it. They just throttled it on down the “reject democracy” path.
Leaving one of our only two political parties as an anti-democratic “Domestic Taliban” type of political operation.
And yeah… that’s not a good place for a prosperous first world country to be. Going to be incredibly difficult to remain prosperous and first world while, simultaneously, needing to expend so much of our energy trying to prevent a Taliban style takeover of our country.
We are, but if we can make it through to the other side, we might be able to push forward to a better place than we've been since Reagan set his sights on destroying the middle class.
I honestly don't think they did. I think the party is quite cognizant of its inability to compete fairly. The reason that every media outlet is bent full steam towards another Hail Mary election outcome is clearly indicative of weakness - not belief.
I think they knew in '16, and know now, that this version of conservatism is underwater in popularity, and requires a charismatic front man to distract from the fact they have no answers. This was always the failure point in the Reagan model (and, imo, the entire modern conservative populist model), it only works if a majority of people buy into the salesman.
They had the "roadmap" back in 2012. It certainly could have worked, after all, much of the roadmap was the same stuff George W. Bush had done to build his political machine in Texas.
But it was too late, the Tea Party revolution was here and the lunatics had taken over the asylum. They tossed the roadmap away and started doubling and tripling down on reactionary racial resentment.
They never learned the lessons of 2012, they thought they found a path avoiding the warnings. Driven into madness. Now they've painted themselves into a corner and the GOP probably won't survive Trump.
All true, and of course did matter. What I'm really getting at is that he *wasn't* a politician going in - and that was the appeal to independents in 2016.
Hillary was known, and had been purposely (and disingenuously) cast in a much darker light politically as an insider or establishment candidate (as the first woman ever on the ballot for President as the nominee of either party, no less).
I'm convinced the reason trump won was entirely because of the veneer of him not being a politician, and thus not beholden to traditional electoral coalitions or party politics. That sure isn't true any longer, he's the most notorious single politician in America now.
Comey's letter a couple of days before the 2016 vote fucked up the accuracy of the polling which couldn't capture it because it happened too late. Pollsters erroneously put their miss down to some "hidden Trump supporter" phenomenon and have been overcompensating ever since.
Unfortunately Fox News, House Republicans, and their various social media trolls know thus and will be out in full force trying to make Biden and Harris look bad in every way.
Apparently I live smack dab in the middle of that angry minority. Everyone is all about trump around me, which makes it seem almost impossible that he won't get elected. Also, a vast majority have no clue whatsoever about all of these cases he's in the middle of right now. Not like they just don't believe it, they're straight up oblivious it's even happening. These people don't even watch Fox or News Max I don't think. They just committed to trump in 2016, and haven't thought about it much since.
I see more sane Republicans voting for RFK than Democrats. I think most Democrat know the stakes.
People are tired of Trump. 2016 was a fluke. Most people didn't know Trump other than from his scripted reality show which falsely portrayed him as an astute businessman with cash. Most people know him now.
The 2016 analogy here would be Trump is 2016 Hillary. People may not care for Biden that much but the hatred against Trump is like the hatred against Hillary.
2016-God I hate her she's such a shrew!
2024-God I hate Trump so much he should be in jail! When a large segment of the voters can't even stand to hear your name-you ain't wining. But he can still raid the RNC coffer until Nov so win!
Republicans are about 30% of the electorate, Democrats are slightly more. Ignoring the independent vote, which Trump lost badly in 2020, losing even a 100k Republican voters across the swing states could sink Trump.
Even if you assume half of Haley's ~40% support is Democrats voting in Republican primaries and 80% of Haley voters will hold their nose and vote for Trump, that's still 4% of Republicans that are never Trumpers - more than enough to matter in a close election.
Somwhere around 25% of the GOP base is on the record as never Trumpers. 40% of Haley's supporters in NC said they would not vote for him if he wins. Those are people he would have won in 2020 (with Haley's support). He's pushed independents out. He's destroyed the GOP hold on suburban women. He makes sure that everyone whom hates him, remembers why they hate him, right up until election day. He has no chill, 2020 was the best he can do and he is no where near his "best" outside the die-hards. Biden got 90+ % of the dem primary, we don't have to wonder what they may do. Trump will polarize the democratic base while alienating many others. This is all a desperate grift to try and save his skin. When it's apparent that he can't, Trump will turn his angry, bully assholery right back at those that supported him - because it will always be someone elses' fault win he loses.
100%. Anybody who think's today's Trump will re-evaluate and alter course is living in a fantasy world. Narcissists don't self-reflect, they double down, then double down again.
A lot, BUT even so that’s a wide split for what is essentially (in some ways) in the incumbent position. So say 3/4 of that other half vote for him in the general, that’s not enough to win.
I heard a republican bragging about how passionate republican voters are for trump compared to democrats for Biden. That is true, but he didn’t take into account the passion against Trump which is strong as well.
https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-voter-analysis-trump-bests-haley-her-home-state.amp
From a Fox News exit poll: “These concerns may explain why 6-in-10 Haley voters (59%) say they would not support Trump in the general election if he were the nominee; very few of her supporters (12%) would be satisfied if he were the nominee.”
To win Republican primaries you need to be more radical than your opponents, but that radicalism doesn’t translate well into the general election.
It is like a Frat Party, the guys who drinks the most and yells the Frat slogan the loudest and boasts about shagging the most sorority girls is really popular. But when the Frat guy goes to the lecture hall that obnoxiousness becomes off-putting.
They do talk about it in this article. As they point out, around half of Haley's voters are Biden voters who never supported Trump. Once you take them out, then Trump has clearly dominated with Republicans.
If they voted for Biden in 2020, they're not part of Trump's base, so the headline is accurate. We're not seeing many people actually turn from Trump to Haley.
Yeah but honestly I don't think the people voting in these primaries see him as an incumbent, he's probably more like a new candidate to them if you will. So I wouldn't be surprised if it's a lot of Republicans voting for Haley, hoping for something new, and then holding their noses come November and voting for Trump anyway.
because about 25% of registered republicans are planning on staying home in november.
because the vast majority of swing voters have allready decided they are voting biden.
Also like,
Nobody wants to talk about the skeleton in the room
But excess deaths in the US for the last 4 years -mostly covid but also things like accidents, premature natural deaths, drug overdose and suicide- have been hitting the far right way, way harder than the rest of the country. There's a lot of underlying social and economic reasons, but those reasons intersect really hard across the same demographics as trump voters.
A lot of Trump supporters are straight up dead and he has not been making inroads with new voters.
yeah that will come up in the actual campaign.
the fact that trump is driectly responsible for so many deaths across the usa and that those people were more likely to be ralated to his voters will not get ignored.
His actual Base is only around 1/3 of the GOP. (Or around 10% of the US voting age population). MAGA is a minority party in America, but holds a larger sway on politics thanks to republicans gerrymandering efforts and low moral character taking dark money (aka special intrests groups) .
This has helped the GOP gain a disproportionate amount of power and control, but it allowed for the really crazy ones to rise up from no-contest districts thanks to that same gerrymandering.
Those extremists MAGA canidates are slowly tearing the gop apart.
The Republican Party primaries represent 5-10% of Republican voters in each state.
In Iowa, 49% of Republican caucus voters refused to support Trump. He only won 51%.
In New Hampshire, 43% of Republican primary voters chose Haley. There is the caveat that NH allows independents to vote in that primary. 54% chose Trump.
In Nevada, 31% of Republican primary voters chose Haley. 63% chose Trump.
Keep in mind that about 40-70% of Haley voters will not vote for Trump in a general election. This means that of the Republican base, 5-15% will defect and vote Biden or third party in a Biden/Trump rematch. Trump already lost independents in the 2020 election and must win them back for 2024, yet has instead lost 10% of his own party.
To compare with the Democratic primaries, Biden won 64% in NH, 95% in SC, and 89% in NV.
Trump won 54% in NH, 60% in SC, 63% in NV, and 51% in IA.
Both Biden and Trump are considered incumbents for their party. A successful incumbent would win with the margins Biden has shown. A losing incumbent would barely win a majority, which is what Trump is showing.
Do not get complacent though. Get out and vote in every election. Get your family and friends to vote in every election. Complacency gave Trump his 2016 win. The Republicans used the OH and VA elections in 2023 to test drive their voter suppression and gerrymandering strategies. Every voter convicted of voter fraud since 2020 has been a Republican or independent Trump voter. People need to vote so overwhelmingly for Democrats the Republican attempts to cheat are blown out of the water.
Not to mention the exit polling showed a majority of Haley voters said no matter what they won’t vote for Trump come the general election. Those are not good signs for any campaign but especially one that relies on its base as much as republicans
Well there are a lot of Dems voting the primaries against him, and those who voted Haley have mostly said they'd vote Trump too. So it's not really a big concern for him I don't think.
That’s actually false from exit polls, 80% said they will not vote for trump if convicted while 25% said they will not vote for him period. As for Dems voting in primaries, I doubt it would be material enough to make a difference.
The article here says otherwise:
>Haley was Trump’s lone major challenger by South Carolina, but the gauntlet of the early states highlighted the limitations of her campaign pitch.
>Some of Haley’s supporters in New Hampshire and South Carolina were voters who told AP VoteCast they identified as Democrats or independents. More importantly, these voters tended to have backed Biden in 2020. In South Carolina and Iowa, about 4 in 10 Haley voters supported Biden nearly four years ago. Roughly half of her New Hampshire voters voted for Biden.
>The challenge for Haley is that this group is a minority within the GOP. They constituted anywhere between 11% and 24% of GOP voters in each of the three contests, putting a low ceiling on her support. Many of Haley’s remaining supporters in each state said they voted third party or didn’t vote in the 2020 general election, also a distinct minority of voters in GOP nominating contests.
Those you're referring to who said they won't vote for him were Biden voters or nonvoters in 2020, so they're not part of Trump's base. We'll see if conviction matters. That's another story that's yet to be determined.
if that’s true than trumps turnouts for gop voters is even worse than I thought lol it’s the same story. Trump does well with Maga and lifer gop, Haley does well with moderates, it’s why he will lose in November.
Also 5% of the vote was democrats
[https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/trump-2024-south-carolina-primary-voter-exit-polls/](https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/trump-2024-south-carolina-primary-voter-exit-polls/)
Let’s be honest though, it’s also a voter depression strategy. When people aren’t thrilled about their options (a charming, practical centrist who already is the oldest sitting president or a crazed fascist who whips people up in to a frenzy with fearmongering) then it’s likely that people just won’t show up and that hurts Dems more.
Bases don’t win “general elections” (outside of deep red/gerrymandered districts).
The entire country is not one of these districts.
This is the RNC’s chief failure. Their operatives have successfully made so many districts where the primary IS the general.
And the politics that wins that primary only works in those vacuums.
The RNC no longer has a separate strategy for winning moderate districts or presidential elections.
Without it, they’re doomed. They don’t know it yet, but they’ll find out.
Pretty sure Biden is losing in the polls. Unless Trump gets charged or Biden does something to reanimate his image it would do this party justice to stop assuming the win.
His best chance is a lower turnout. If Democrats mobilize and show out like in 2020, then they'll retain, but if people stay home he has a chance because you know the Trump Republican base is going to be out and voting. Do Democratic voters feel the same level of urgency that they had 4 years ago?
I'm shocked that Cheeto Benito can't broaden his base of support on a platform of vindictive retribution, authoritarian bulling, racist dog-whistles, gluttonous grifting and copious amounts of provable lies!
Shocked I tell ya.
It's always been about turnout, and Trumps folks are going to turnout hard for him come the general. The question for me is will Biden voters turnout, especially young voters.
The problem isn't the Trump folks, there aren't quite enough of them. The problem are the "I'd rather have the fascist than a Democrat" red voters that will pinch their nose and pull the lever for Trump.
Dont forget there are obnoxious, perfection demanding folks who are progressive who wont vote for Biden because of Palestine, despite knowing Trump would be much worse for them.
"Blue Maga" as well with their "Biden can't perfectly and unilaterally fix everything that makes me feel bad! He has to earn *my* vote!" short sighted, self absorbed narcissism.
Also, the problem is the "Biden too old" crowd and those disillusioned with the two-party system. Yes, Biden is too old. Yes, both parties suck, but voting Trump is basically saying "please usher a reign of Christian facism that I will ultimately suffer from".
Swallow your pride and vote Biden--KEEP TRUMP OUT. Hell, I'm less advocating voting Biden and more just saying vote for Biden to really stick it to Trump. I don't want Trump in office so he can finish selling secrets to foreign countries
It only matters in a few states.
Last time a republican won the popular vote was 2004. That same year MySpace was the most popular social media site and the Facebook was launched in a dorm room.
The Senate map is hard to near impossible with regular Dem turnout. even the kind from the past 8 years.
Its going to have to be an even stronger turnout for those competitive seats
*This* is my concern. Trump will never increase his votes and has probably lost a big chunk of more moderate republicans. My concern is how many Gen Z and Muslim Americans that voted for Biden in 2020 will simply sit out this year.
I think the closer we get, the more focused the media will be on Trump and that in turn will make viewers more angry at him and turn out just to shut him down.
At least that's my belief
Donald is his own worst enemy and as much as people love him; the other majority can't stand him.
Agreed. His “popularity” is, really, limited. Only about 1 in 5 people would gravitate to a human like him. Tops. The other 4 out of 5 are, literally, revolted.
So turnout has been great among gen z the last few years and really improving with millennials, two distinctly more leftist generations. But like you said, it's not a sure thing, so keep hyping your friends, family and anyone else to register and actually drive them to the polls if you have to.
What is more of a sure thing but less statistically obvious is that a lot of Trump supporters are dead. Excess deaths in the US- mostly from covid but also things like accidents, premature natural deaths and suicide- are hitting the demographics that have supported trump way, way, WAY harder than the rest of the US. Lots of people who voted for him last time who normally would be alive to vote for him this time are gone.
A lot of Biden voters are also dead of excess deaths, but not nearly as many as trump voters. So between the high turnout of new voters and the uh. Fatality rate of Trump voters, there may have been a really big political demographic shift that nobody is reporting on.
This is becoming very common, and it's great:
https://americanjournalnews.com/more-than-48600-18-year-olds-are-registered-to-vote-in-ohio-a-35-increase-from-late-august/
He doesn't need to broaden his base, he needs to splinter the opposition, and only in a few states, and not by very much. Thus he benefits from No Labels, Cornell West, Jill Stein, RFK Jr; probable concerted social media disinformation efforts concentrated in suburbs; Election Day shenanigans from Officials who are election deniers; innumerable unsubstantiated claims of fraud and tsunami of lawsuits; moves by state legislatures to invalidate results and officially substitute electors; etc. Have I missed anything? Maybe Ashley Biden's incriminating laptop this time, around Columbus Day
Everything Trump is doing is out of a fascist coup handbook.
His strategy is to get 20% of the population so ANGRY if they lose that they'll turn a blind eye to violence and cheating in order to gain power, and then they'll act as the brownshirts that protect the coup in the aftermath.
HOWEVER, America is not nearly bad off enough for this to work like it does in economically ravaged countries, historically speaking.
The best outcome of a Trump loss (for him) would be Trump operating a "rebel" government out of Maralago where he tells GOP reps how to vote and castigates those that don't fall in line. Maybe get a few state legislatures to openly defy Federal law.
>America is not nearly bad off enough for this to work
Keep in mind right-wing media is working tirelessly to convince their viewers the America is currently in the shitter and Trump is the way to prosperity. Just look at all the shit people are blaming Biden for. I got told a few days ago by someone I know IRL that it's Biden's fault groceries cost so much but of course they couldn't tell me WHY because they just hear shit on the radio or podcast and believe it. It worked with Obama too and that's how we got to Trump.
Like they are pulling out all the same tricks this election that they did 2015. Exact same. 1)"Bombshell" corruption charges
2) "Caravans" of immigrants
3) Blame current Dem POTUS for rising prices instead of corporate greed and inflation (that magically don't become issues under a Republican administration)
4) Unrest in a foreign country
They did this shit in 2019 and if it wasn't for COVID, which they had no playbook to handle politically, Trump might've been re-elected and the US would no longer be a part of NATO and we'd have 4 more years of a Russian puppet government.
While you're not wrong it's done very little to effect his supporters. In fact donations continue to pour in.
Unless he is actually removed from the ballot people will vote for him.
This will come down to turnout. People need to get out and vote because Trump supporters will be out in droves come election day.
>In fact donations continue to pour in.
He's still raising millions per month, but he's spending millions more than he's taking in and a huge chunk of that is going to legal fees, not campaigning. Yes, it is technically early in the campaign cycle, but his fundraising picture is dire and even some of MAGA is balking at the idea of donating to fund his legal fees.
> He's still raising millions per month,
[Citation Needed]
> but he's spending millions more than he's taking in and a huge chunk of that is going to legal fees, not campaigning.
And that's also stealing from downticket campaigns if he actually is "taking in millions".
He is in the process of taking over the RNC - to pay his legal bills and, thanks to him, the RNC is already running out of money. If the only candidate the RNC can support, ends up being Trump, where does that leave (already struggling) down ballot candidates? The answer is, he doesn't care and they will suffer, probably losing the House and the Senate. There are good odds 2024 sweeps all three branches. Trump will then just cash in where he is most capable. Complaining about how others fix issues and pretending he he would be better. We know he's not, because he showed us already. But he and his core will continue to scream "unfair" all the way to the dump.
No, his strategy has always been to demoralize others to the point of either not voting, or going third party. While giving his base enough fear and anger to ensure they'll be there.
I'm more concerned he'll have some sort of health event like a heart attack while campaigning and we'll never hear the end of Biden/FBI/CIA/Communists/LGBT Community/Mexico/you name it killed trump conspiracies.
Actually virtually all polls said Hillary would win. This is from an ad hoc [review](https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AAPOR-2016-Election-Polling-Report.pdf)
>The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. Pre-election polls fueled high-profile predictions that Hillary Clinton’s likelihood of winning the presidency was about 90 percent, with estimates ranging from 71 to over 99 percent. When Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidency in the early hours of November 9th, it came as a shock even to his own pollsters (Jacobs and House 2016). There was (and continues to be) widespread consensus that the polls failed.
But did the polls fail? And if so why? Those are the central questions addressed in this report.
I've said this around here before, but my husband and I both have families and extended social circles that historically lean heavily conservative.
However, only a few of these people are still part of the MAGA cult - most never were truly part of it in the first place. They voted for Trump in 2016, but by 2020 had seen the error of their ways and voted for Biden, which is still their plan this year assuming Trump is the GOP nominee.
From the MAGAs I've heard from thus far, they are emphatic that if Nikki Haley somehow becomes the nominee, they will not vote for her. Trump is their god, period, the end. Some of them, I think, would've maybe voted for DeSantis had it gotten to that point, but Haley is a hard pass.
However, from the non-MAGA Republicans, most of them have been quite clear that they are only voting GOP at the top of the ticket if Nikki Haley is the nominee, that if it's a choice between Trump or Biden, they will once again vote for Biden.
I'm not complacent, and god knows there's still plenty of time between now and the election for anything to happen, but I'd honestly be a lot more concerned about a GOP victory if Haley was on the ballot. She'd get the non-MAGA Republicans to vote for her, at least some small percentage of the dedicated MAGAs who would pinch their nose and vote for her to avoid a Democrat victory, and probably at least some independents. Trump's not getting any of those people except for his base.
This is exactly what we said would happen.
Trump has no ability to expand his voting base and it's constantly shrinking, so unless something wild happens, the election outcome from 2020 will be the same as 2024.
I had high hopes that America would do what’s right and that Trump would lose in a landslide but then I read 538 poll analysis and it is terrifying and so last weekend’s(?) NYT Opinion pages had a moderated discussion with independent voters and it was also scary. I don’t think we realize just how many people are not paying attention to the news… at all! Or don’t understand how our government works! Or understand the implications of Trumps rants and the things people around him are saying. My hope is that the low-information people will just sit it out. My hope is that Biden’s campaign will ramp up and start calling out every cognitive misstep, every indictment, every fascist phrase uttered by Trump (and point out to the American public, the implications for the fascist rant) will be broadcast far and wide and scare the bejesus out of people in to voting.
Do I want Biden to step down and Ms. Wittier run or Mr. Newsom to run? Yes I do. But that’s not the hand we have been dealt with. Not voting or giving your vote to a 3rd party is simply a vote for fascism. And more than likely, it be the last time you will ever have to chance to vote if you don’t.
I'm not a political genius, but I do know people. And people across the board are sick and tired of Trump.
They're tired of seeing him, they're tired of hearing about him, they're tired of the impressions, the soundbytes, the jokes, and the threats.
Nobody wants another 4 years of this fucking asshole in our lives. People just want to go back to not caring about politics anymore. They want stability, they want to stop worrying, and they want to stop being embarrassed about being an American.
At this point, everyone knows the consequences of voting him in again. They know what he said he's going to do, and they know *at best* it's going to be what happened in 2016.
And this time Trump doesn't have the benefit of the doubt. He's not gaining supporters, and nobody is falling for his lies. He's hemorrhaging support on the ground, and there's nothing that's going to stop the bleeding.
Whoever he picks for VP is going to be a known Trump sycophant, and that's going to make voting for him look even worse. Nobody wants MGT or Boebert as Vice President, his base is too racist for a Tim Scott; There's nobody that can help boost support for him.
I think, barring any shenanigans, he's going to lose the election and lose it BADLY.
What a terrible first half of this headline but terrible headlines are the norm now. He has underperformed polling and drastically underperformed for a quasi-incumbent. Trump and winning are not synonymous and should not be together in any headline.
Indeed there are few new voters coming his way. The ones that support him are the loudest. If you sway a couple to at least not vote for Trump, that would be a plus.
This is so obvious, but it is rarely stated. Everyone prefers treating 2024 as if it's still 2016, and he's still an unknown or outsider deserving of a chance to try something different.
You don't get a mulligan after an entire administration of failure just because you didn't like it that he didn't get reelected.
His base isn't large enough to win an election, he'll need independents and they've been voting against Republican candidates despite not liking Biden that much.
*His voters so far are overwhelmingly white, mostly older than 50 and generally without a college degree.*
If the youth vote turns out this November, Biden will win. Please don't take this election lightly because a lot of people's livelihoods is riding on this vote.
[www.vote.org](https://www.vote.org) and find out how you can contribute at r/VoteDEM
That's why red state voter suppression efforts will be in full force. Biden didn't win by that many votes in the swing states. all Republican have to is get those torals down for biden.
It’s like living through 2016 again.
Few things have hit me harder than what my wife (then-girlfriend) said on election night 2016: “What the fuck am I going to tell my kids tomorrow?”
She was a public school teacher at an elementary school with a lot of BIPOC and Muslim students at the time.
None of that really matters.
He lost the popular vote by millions in 2016 and still became President.
What DOES matter is a few tens of thousands of votes in exactly the right districts in a few swing states. In fact, that's the ONLY thing that matters in a Presidential election. We've found that out multiple times already.
Fact he's not. He's losing more and more suburban women and this time it's Republican suburban women-many of whom just want him to shut up and go away. He has no problem in rural areas but everyone knows that cities are the ones to elect POTUS. If he's doing bad in Charleston, SC-he's pretty much toast.
But that's not the horse-race analysis that the media want.
I think his base is clueless at how off-putting and weird they've become. Too-Online people are used to it somewhat but outside of that context, Trump Supporters make people uncomfortable.
Maga can’t win an election I’m amazed at how utterly stupid trump is for thinking they can. Trump won 1 election where a lot of people had the thought of how bad can it be. Well people found out pretty fucking quickly and since then it’s been one loss after another. Look at the primary results yeah he’s won them all but only getting a small margin of victory. I can’t imagine many independents voting trump
I’m straight up terrified we are about to lose our democracy. I live in California which is very blue, however, I know so many trump supporters now. It freaking scares me. Trump is getting people through Tucker fucking Carlson on You Tube.
Big concern is Michigan. Before the October Israel/ Iran conflict, Mich was solidly in Biden’s camp. Especially after Roe and all that. But after Israel carpet bombed Gaza and Biden’s blind and unquestioning support of Israel, there are lots of Muslims and young people in Mich that are pissed. Not myself, but I know many who are one-issue voters that have said they will never vote Biden. They may not vote for Trump but they will not show up. Has me very concerned.
What scares me is the undecideds. There are people who haven’t been paying attention who don’t know how bad trump actually is. All they hear on true news is Biden is old and trump is crazy. Maybe some Joe Schmo in Milwaukee will think inflation isn’t slowing down fast enough and will vote for trump because the media keeps calling Biden old
He’s going to end up with that base plus an ever shrinking remainder of the r’s. Please vote. Especially in swing states. I hope this election is an even larger margin than ‘20
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His base: The basket of deplorables?
HRC got so much backlash and yet deplorable ended up being far too lenient a term for the average Trump supporter.
She wasn't even referring to the average trump voter. Just the shit bags that surround him. Now it's even fucking worse.
https://www.axios.com/2024/02/25/trump-voter-demographics-problem-election-2024 > Two-thirds of Trump voters were white and didn't go to college.
This is it almost entirely. White college educated suburban voters were a bedrock group for Republicans since Nixon. They have shifted dramatically towards democrats post-trump.
can you remind me why we need to count their votes? the votes of literal traitors?
I would've said the bucket of shit stains but nobody asked me.
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I like this 👍🏼
Well I mean he does represent them well….His full diaper isn’t a bug, it’s a feature….
They got so upset after HRC under sold how many of them were deplorable.
The handbaskets of deplorables.
His base is a cult. If anything they’ll start capping themselves. Nobody is hopping over. Still need to vote like the dickens tho whatever that means
They will die and will their meager estates to him.
There already appears to be an appeal from the new RNC co-chair Lara Trump for more donations to the Trump “legal fund.” It wouldn’t surprise me if these unscrupulous people don’t try to get elderly, white, low information Trump supporters, those who own their own homes, to take out slimy “reverse mortgages” to donate so Trump gets his hands on vast untapped financial resources. No one is going to feel bad for MAGA-hats that are fleeced, but they will have nothing to pass down their heirs. Inherited wealth has been a traditional avenue to become middle class for many, so that hurts younger generations who may not be the gullible rubes their parents are.
It means, "like the devil". Dickens was a euphemism for devil during Shakespeare's time.
Everyone that has lost in life despite privilege can really relate to him. The worst thing is these losers have the time to vote so in a country with low voter turnout and ridiculous voting boundaries they can win
It’s more of a wet pillowcase now.
I think it’s a bad idea to push that narrative again, it fucked us last time. I would just target trump, and not rile up his base, those “people” are not going to listen to reason.
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They feed off hate, apathy is a better move.
Ehhh, I believe Edmund Burke would disagree. >The only thing necessary for evil to triumph in the world is that good men do nothing
There's a middle ground between doing nothing and being openly insulting.
Apathy is a weapon tho. It pisses people off, especially people that are convinced of being right, and aware that they might be wrong.
Meh, whatever…
There it is…👆
This merely feeds into their victim complex and drives in group cohesion. Better to simply stop engaging with them similar to the "grey rock" method of dealing with narcissists or abusive individuals.
The point of speaking up and challenging them in public isn't to convince them to change their views. It's to speak for and defend those who are unable to defend themselves. Letting their views go unchallenged in public just gives them a platform to spread hate unopposed. Staying silent isn't the solution.
You've misunderstood my point completely. I'm not recommending that people ignore hate speech or abusive behavior. I'm recommending that rather than feed a victim complex with abuse that Trump supporters be treated with as little engagement as possible. I didn't think I had to specifically call out an exemption to this for outright racist or abusive behavior but I suppose "Reddit's gonna reddit".
I understood your point, and I disagree. Taking the high road so far has only encouraged trump and his cult to act worse. They are all bullies. Their default behavior to anyone in the "out group" is abusive. I don't know about you, but ignoring a bully has not once in my entire life ever worked for me. All it did was emboldened them to double down on their behavior. The only thing a bully understands is force. Engaging with them as little as possible in public and avoiding confrontations just makes them to think they have more support with the public than they do. Silence gives consent. On the other hand, if they are constantly confronted in public and treated with the scorn they deserve, they will eventually crawl back to the rocks they were hiding under before they felt safe to take the mask off after 2016.
So, now this has had a little while to sit, can you please answer this survey? Did my calling you a piece of shit a) cause you to stop speaking publicly b) have no effect on you speaking publicly c) increase your desire to speak publicly In light of this interaction, do you think your plan will a) have the effect you desire b) have no discernable effect c) have the opposite effect from what you desire
If you think that walking up to someone wearing a MAGA hat and telling them that they're a piece of shit makes this a better world to live in then I'd recommend that you treat the mirror the same way. You're engaging in the same in group / out group dynamics and are supporting that people be bullied solely based on what you think their beliefs are. And once you've bullied the MAGA supporters into silence, how long before you turn your attention to the next group you don't agree with? It's true, for the most part they're not good people or, at best, don't consider the wider ramifications of their actions; which I suspect might be something you're also familiar with.
They CRAVE your hate. It energizes them. They laugh at it. Don’t give it to them. Ignore them like you would a spam phone number.
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No. Again, they would LOVE that. They’d thank you for it while gushing tears of joy.
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The National attention they’d revive would be well with it to them.
I disagree. It fucked us last time because the average American was absurdly naïve about how fucking depraved and degenerate the core of the red hat base truly are. HRC was being naïve too, since the whole point of that comment was an attempt to say that while there are deplorable, there are still decent conservative people whom Trump and his ideology don’t represent. The past eight years have shown us that there are almost no conservatives who aren’t willing to jump on Trump’s train to hell. She gave them too much credit. No, at this point we all know exactly what his base looks like, and “deplorable” is an exceedingly generous adjective. There isn’t any doubt anymore. In 2016 a lot of moderates thought Trump’s reactionary sideshow was just a political ploy, but now they have seen who he is, and they have seen the character of the people who have lined up behind him. In terms of long term repair to the fabric of the citizenry, merely targeting Trump himself is a band aid on a deeply infected wound. The real problem are the people who will eagerly prop up someone like Trump. He is going to be gone in ten years or so, but there will be plenty to replace him, and the root problem is the people who will vote for that, not the candidates themselves. We don’t need to be diplomatic or generous with them anymore. They are deplorable people who fester aggressively outside of the core worldview of a majority of Americans.
Just saying we are wasting time and energy trying to shame these shameful people. They want that. They want to fight. Calling them names they probably don’t even know the meaning of is a waste of time. Just ignore them and vote. Just my opinion based on the last 10 years of this bullshit.
In my opinion, they have to be shamed back under the rocks from which they crept. Before social media made them feel like their echo chamber was the entire world's view and before trump emboldened them into thinking they could see the sun and be accepted, they lived on the outskirts of society. They belong there and their opinions have never mattered. Now the stupid news gives them a sandbox. No, these people should be shamed every single time they open their mouths by every single person who has the ability to speak. They need to get it through their idiot heads that they aren't the majority, they aren't welcome, and they aren't wanted. Back to the margins they need to go and let the adults handle things, which will inevitably make their pathetic lives better when they get out of their own way. This isn't the time to be silent and let them be. They are waging war against democracy. Vote, yes, but be very aggressive with these people who are aggressive cowards.
Everything you say is true, but how do you confront gullible people when so many evangelical churches give rise to this patriarchal hierarchy that benefits white, cis, males and makes them feel like they are a coalition of “Christian warriors?” I clearly see that they are being manipulated by fascist power freaks who want to turn the clock back to an imaginary time of “Mad Men” when women and POC were more under their thumbs. They believe they are godly family people. Even women who have been abused mentally and physically into subjugation buy into this myth. Economically it has been more difficult for previously entitled white males to compete with smart women and POC who have obviously gained some independence. Also, many immigrants are hard workers that often work for less causing employers want to hire them instead of other working class. Therefore, I see the manipulation of the social conservative movement primarily in economic terms. Denying women agency over their own bodies and reproductive decisions, wanting to keep them bare foot and pregnant, is an effort to keep them financially dependent on men, who also become “head of the family.” Attacking LGBTQ is also a way to control “the family” as is, of course, laws restricting divorce. None of this is about “morals” however right wing religiosity frames it that way. To them, equality, inclusion, progression, diversity, and equity are alien terms and those who advocate for freedom and liberty are seen as enemies. So, again, how do you have conversations with so many people who have become right wing zealots?
> those “people” are not going to listen to reason. Those "people" have also been dying in droves. Boomers are crossing the Rainbow Bridge to the tune of about [3000 per day](https://boont2.medium.com/about-3-000-boomers-die-each-day-and-that-number-will-soon-skyrocket-aae649fcfbfb.) In 2019, [56% of GOP / Lean GOP voters were 50 and older](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/10/26/what-the-2020-electorate-looks-like-by-party-race-and-ethnicity-age-education-and-religion/). Those numbers aren't being made up with new voters in any substantive way no matter how many .02% shifts toward the GOP a demographic makes (which is then reported as "bad for Biden").
i wonder how much of his base was eliminated by covid.
They are still dying to covid and now RSV and the Flu are really bad this year too. I'm a healthy, in shape, middle aged person and RSV kicked my ass twice over the holidays.
Don’t forget measles, lel I’m assuming polio or some long forgotten, eradicated disease next
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This - why won’t more media organizations talk about this. For an incumbent who is supposed to have the GOP in the palm of his hand, the fact he isn’t sweeping the primaries with 90%+ of the vote is pretty pathetic. Edit: Wow lot's of great discussion here! For those interested, Pod Save America had a really good breakdown of the South Carolina results and what some possible takes from it are in their most recent episode, I recommend folks check it out!
Yeah but how many of them will still vote for him in the general despite not voting for him in the primary? That's what worries me.
It worries me too, but how many of them won't? How many will stay home? The GOP has done worse than expected in every election since 2016. Several times embarrassingly worse. Overall, this country hates trump. He's supported by a loud, angry minority. Candidates endorsed by him have repeatedly lost over the last 6 years. Aside from the 2016 upset, he has a horrible track record in elections.
2016 was an aberration. The factor that made that possible wasn’t trump. It was the opponent he was running against. As long as the opponent is “neutral” and not off-putting… R’s get destroyed in every election under this new theory. (That you need not appeal to a broad swath of the electorate… you just need to animate the extreme right fringe).
It's both. It took the perfect storm of 'outsider/businessman' and the very definition of the establishment, embodied in the most vilified boogeyman of RW media history to get him elected by the slimmest margin imaginable.
Which the Republican Party mistook for a proven and repeatable process.
They still can't or refuse to see it for the Hail Mary, fluke that it was. They thought lightning would strike twice and if it didn't then surely some SCOTUS gimmick would.
And that’s why we are in a scary place. They refuse to entertain any other path to electoral success. They have tunnel vision on this extreme angle. Which, quite simply, cannot work in a functioning democracy. So they came to a crossroads where they need to pick a different lane and try to win democratically… or they have to reject democracy. And they blew past that intersection without even, seriously, considering it. They just throttled it on down the “reject democracy” path. Leaving one of our only two political parties as an anti-democratic “Domestic Taliban” type of political operation. And yeah… that’s not a good place for a prosperous first world country to be. Going to be incredibly difficult to remain prosperous and first world while, simultaneously, needing to expend so much of our energy trying to prevent a Taliban style takeover of our country.
We are, but if we can make it through to the other side, we might be able to push forward to a better place than we've been since Reagan set his sights on destroying the middle class.
I honestly don't think they did. I think the party is quite cognizant of its inability to compete fairly. The reason that every media outlet is bent full steam towards another Hail Mary election outcome is clearly indicative of weakness - not belief. I think they knew in '16, and know now, that this version of conservatism is underwater in popularity, and requires a charismatic front man to distract from the fact they have no answers. This was always the failure point in the Reagan model (and, imo, the entire modern conservative populist model), it only works if a majority of people buy into the salesman.
They had the "roadmap" back in 2012. It certainly could have worked, after all, much of the roadmap was the same stuff George W. Bush had done to build his political machine in Texas. But it was too late, the Tea Party revolution was here and the lunatics had taken over the asylum. They tossed the roadmap away and started doubling and tripling down on reactionary racial resentment.
They never learned the lessons of 2012, they thought they found a path avoiding the warnings. Driven into madness. Now they've painted themselves into a corner and the GOP probably won't survive Trump.
Don’t forget he was a reality tv star, that helped a lot. He was already a household name, not for good reasons, but people knew the Trump name.
All true, and of course did matter. What I'm really getting at is that he *wasn't* a politician going in - and that was the appeal to independents in 2016. Hillary was known, and had been purposely (and disingenuously) cast in a much darker light politically as an insider or establishment candidate (as the first woman ever on the ballot for President as the nominee of either party, no less). I'm convinced the reason trump won was entirely because of the veneer of him not being a politician, and thus not beholden to traditional electoral coalitions or party politics. That sure isn't true any longer, he's the most notorious single politician in America now.
Comey's letter a couple of days before the 2016 vote fucked up the accuracy of the polling which couldn't capture it because it happened too late. Pollsters erroneously put their miss down to some "hidden Trump supporter" phenomenon and have been overcompensating ever since.
Yup.
Unfortunately, that aberration is going to fuck us for decades on account of the Supreme Court justices he got to install.
Unfortunately Fox News, House Republicans, and their various social media trolls know thus and will be out in full force trying to make Biden and Harris look bad in every way.
Apparently I live smack dab in the middle of that angry minority. Everyone is all about trump around me, which makes it seem almost impossible that he won't get elected. Also, a vast majority have no clue whatsoever about all of these cases he's in the middle of right now. Not like they just don't believe it, they're straight up oblivious it's even happening. These people don't even watch Fox or News Max I don't think. They just committed to trump in 2016, and haven't thought about it much since.
I see more sane Republicans voting for RFK than Democrats. I think most Democrat know the stakes. People are tired of Trump. 2016 was a fluke. Most people didn't know Trump other than from his scripted reality show which falsely portrayed him as an astute businessman with cash. Most people know him now. The 2016 analogy here would be Trump is 2016 Hillary. People may not care for Biden that much but the hatred against Trump is like the hatred against Hillary. 2016-God I hate her she's such a shrew! 2024-God I hate Trump so much he should be in jail! When a large segment of the voters can't even stand to hear your name-you ain't wining. But he can still raid the RNC coffer until Nov so win!
Republicans are about 30% of the electorate, Democrats are slightly more. Ignoring the independent vote, which Trump lost badly in 2020, losing even a 100k Republican voters across the swing states could sink Trump. Even if you assume half of Haley's ~40% support is Democrats voting in Republican primaries and 80% of Haley voters will hold their nose and vote for Trump, that's still 4% of Republicans that are never Trumpers - more than enough to matter in a close election.
Somwhere around 25% of the GOP base is on the record as never Trumpers. 40% of Haley's supporters in NC said they would not vote for him if he wins. Those are people he would have won in 2020 (with Haley's support). He's pushed independents out. He's destroyed the GOP hold on suburban women. He makes sure that everyone whom hates him, remembers why they hate him, right up until election day. He has no chill, 2020 was the best he can do and he is no where near his "best" outside the die-hards. Biden got 90+ % of the dem primary, we don't have to wonder what they may do. Trump will polarize the democratic base while alienating many others. This is all a desperate grift to try and save his skin. When it's apparent that he can't, Trump will turn his angry, bully assholery right back at those that supported him - because it will always be someone elses' fault win he loses.
This prediction is a lock. And yes he will do worse than 2020.
100%. Anybody who think's today's Trump will re-evaluate and alter course is living in a fantasy world. Narcissists don't self-reflect, they double down, then double down again.
A lot, BUT even so that’s a wide split for what is essentially (in some ways) in the incumbent position. So say 3/4 of that other half vote for him in the general, that’s not enough to win. I heard a republican bragging about how passionate republican voters are for trump compared to democrats for Biden. That is true, but he didn’t take into account the passion against Trump which is strong as well.
https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-voter-analysis-trump-bests-haley-her-home-state.amp From a Fox News exit poll: “These concerns may explain why 6-in-10 Haley voters (59%) say they would not support Trump in the general election if he were the nominee; very few of her supporters (12%) would be satisfied if he were the nominee.”
Less about voting for him and more about not being motivated to turn out for him.
To win Republican primaries you need to be more radical than your opponents, but that radicalism doesn’t translate well into the general election. It is like a Frat Party, the guys who drinks the most and yells the Frat slogan the loudest and boasts about shagging the most sorority girls is really popular. But when the Frat guy goes to the lecture hall that obnoxiousness becomes off-putting.
> This - why won’t more media organizations talk about this They are too busy talking about Biden’s age as if Trump is 40 years younger than him.
They do talk about it in this article. As they point out, around half of Haley's voters are Biden voters who never supported Trump. Once you take them out, then Trump has clearly dominated with Republicans.
they are republicans still maybe never trumpers.
If they voted for Biden in 2020, they're not part of Trump's base, so the headline is accurate. We're not seeing many people actually turn from Trump to Haley.
Yeah but honestly I don't think the people voting in these primaries see him as an incumbent, he's probably more like a new candidate to them if you will. So I wouldn't be surprised if it's a lot of Republicans voting for Haley, hoping for something new, and then holding their noses come November and voting for Trump anyway.
TRUMP WITH CRUSHING DEFEAT OF HALEY, WHILE BIDEN STRUGGLED TO GET 94%!
because about 25% of registered republicans are planning on staying home in november. because the vast majority of swing voters have allready decided they are voting biden.
Also like, Nobody wants to talk about the skeleton in the room But excess deaths in the US for the last 4 years -mostly covid but also things like accidents, premature natural deaths, drug overdose and suicide- have been hitting the far right way, way harder than the rest of the country. There's a lot of underlying social and economic reasons, but those reasons intersect really hard across the same demographics as trump voters. A lot of Trump supporters are straight up dead and he has not been making inroads with new voters.
yeah that will come up in the actual campaign. the fact that trump is driectly responsible for so many deaths across the usa and that those people were more likely to be ralated to his voters will not get ignored.
His actual Base is only around 1/3 of the GOP. (Or around 10% of the US voting age population). MAGA is a minority party in America, but holds a larger sway on politics thanks to republicans gerrymandering efforts and low moral character taking dark money (aka special intrests groups) . This has helped the GOP gain a disproportionate amount of power and control, but it allowed for the really crazy ones to rise up from no-contest districts thanks to that same gerrymandering. Those extremists MAGA canidates are slowly tearing the gop apart.
The Republican Party primaries represent 5-10% of Republican voters in each state. In Iowa, 49% of Republican caucus voters refused to support Trump. He only won 51%. In New Hampshire, 43% of Republican primary voters chose Haley. There is the caveat that NH allows independents to vote in that primary. 54% chose Trump. In Nevada, 31% of Republican primary voters chose Haley. 63% chose Trump. Keep in mind that about 40-70% of Haley voters will not vote for Trump in a general election. This means that of the Republican base, 5-15% will defect and vote Biden or third party in a Biden/Trump rematch. Trump already lost independents in the 2020 election and must win them back for 2024, yet has instead lost 10% of his own party. To compare with the Democratic primaries, Biden won 64% in NH, 95% in SC, and 89% in NV. Trump won 54% in NH, 60% in SC, 63% in NV, and 51% in IA. Both Biden and Trump are considered incumbents for their party. A successful incumbent would win with the margins Biden has shown. A losing incumbent would barely win a majority, which is what Trump is showing. Do not get complacent though. Get out and vote in every election. Get your family and friends to vote in every election. Complacency gave Trump his 2016 win. The Republicans used the OH and VA elections in 2023 to test drive their voter suppression and gerrymandering strategies. Every voter convicted of voter fraud since 2020 has been a Republican or independent Trump voter. People need to vote so overwhelmingly for Democrats the Republican attempts to cheat are blown out of the water.
Not to mention the exit polling showed a majority of Haley voters said no matter what they won’t vote for Trump come the general election. Those are not good signs for any campaign but especially one that relies on its base as much as republicans
Well there are a lot of Dems voting the primaries against him, and those who voted Haley have mostly said they'd vote Trump too. So it's not really a big concern for him I don't think.
That’s actually false from exit polls, 80% said they will not vote for trump if convicted while 25% said they will not vote for him period. As for Dems voting in primaries, I doubt it would be material enough to make a difference.
And the cherry on top. Biden likely only needs 6-10% of them
The article here says otherwise: >Haley was Trump’s lone major challenger by South Carolina, but the gauntlet of the early states highlighted the limitations of her campaign pitch. >Some of Haley’s supporters in New Hampshire and South Carolina were voters who told AP VoteCast they identified as Democrats or independents. More importantly, these voters tended to have backed Biden in 2020. In South Carolina and Iowa, about 4 in 10 Haley voters supported Biden nearly four years ago. Roughly half of her New Hampshire voters voted for Biden. >The challenge for Haley is that this group is a minority within the GOP. They constituted anywhere between 11% and 24% of GOP voters in each of the three contests, putting a low ceiling on her support. Many of Haley’s remaining supporters in each state said they voted third party or didn’t vote in the 2020 general election, also a distinct minority of voters in GOP nominating contests. Those you're referring to who said they won't vote for him were Biden voters or nonvoters in 2020, so they're not part of Trump's base. We'll see if conviction matters. That's another story that's yet to be determined.
if that’s true than trumps turnouts for gop voters is even worse than I thought lol it’s the same story. Trump does well with Maga and lifer gop, Haley does well with moderates, it’s why he will lose in November. Also 5% of the vote was democrats [https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/trump-2024-south-carolina-primary-voter-exit-polls/](https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/trump-2024-south-carolina-primary-voter-exit-polls/)
not really more than half of haley voters would defect to biden if trump wins.
His entire campaign strategy is to essentially piss off other groups of people to make the base cheer. That's never been a growth strategy.
Because MAGA isn’t a political ideology; it’s an ever-expanding list of people and things they hate.
It’s also the single biggest motivator of democratic and moderate turnout against him.
Let’s be honest though, it’s also a voter depression strategy. When people aren’t thrilled about their options (a charming, practical centrist who already is the oldest sitting president or a crazed fascist who whips people up in to a frenzy with fearmongering) then it’s likely that people just won’t show up and that hurts Dems more.
I can’t believe the number of people who are happy spending their hard earned money on his legal bills.
“hAy’D dO iT fEr MaY!”
Last I checked Joe Exotic is still in prison. Still waiting on that pardon.
Bases don’t win elections, moderates do.
Bases don’t win “general elections” (outside of deep red/gerrymandered districts). The entire country is not one of these districts. This is the RNC’s chief failure. Their operatives have successfully made so many districts where the primary IS the general. And the politics that wins that primary only works in those vacuums. The RNC no longer has a separate strategy for winning moderate districts or presidential elections. Without it, they’re doomed. They don’t know it yet, but they’ll find out.
Pretty sure Biden is losing in the polls. Unless Trump gets charged or Biden does something to reanimate his image it would do this party justice to stop assuming the win.
Pretty sure the only poll that really matters is the one at the ballot box, which is what we are discussing here.
Polls have been spectacularly wrong for years now. Why did they suddenly get accurate?
In 6 states.
His best chance is a lower turnout. If Democrats mobilize and show out like in 2020, then they'll retain, but if people stay home he has a chance because you know the Trump Republican base is going to be out and voting. Do Democratic voters feel the same level of urgency that they had 4 years ago?
I'm shocked that Cheeto Benito can't broaden his base of support on a platform of vindictive retribution, authoritarian bulling, racist dog-whistles, gluttonous grifting and copious amounts of provable lies! Shocked I tell ya.
Don’t forget the incoherent mumbling!
It's always been about turnout, and Trumps folks are going to turnout hard for him come the general. The question for me is will Biden voters turnout, especially young voters.
The problem isn't the Trump folks, there aren't quite enough of them. The problem are the "I'd rather have the fascist than a Democrat" red voters that will pinch their nose and pull the lever for Trump.
Dont forget there are obnoxious, perfection demanding folks who are progressive who wont vote for Biden because of Palestine, despite knowing Trump would be much worse for them.
"Blue Maga" as well with their "Biden can't perfectly and unilaterally fix everything that makes me feel bad! He has to earn *my* vote!" short sighted, self absorbed narcissism.
Also, the problem is the "Biden too old" crowd and those disillusioned with the two-party system. Yes, Biden is too old. Yes, both parties suck, but voting Trump is basically saying "please usher a reign of Christian facism that I will ultimately suffer from". Swallow your pride and vote Biden--KEEP TRUMP OUT. Hell, I'm less advocating voting Biden and more just saying vote for Biden to really stick it to Trump. I don't want Trump in office so he can finish selling secrets to foreign countries
Both parties don't suck. One of them sucks and one of them is OK.
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Seriously. The odds were like 40/60, and everyone is acting like math stopped working because we lost at odds just better than a coin toss.
abortion and IVF will have people turning up, let alone all of the other shit going on.
That’s why we’re seeing all the ‘both sides are bad’ posts. Try to convince non-Trump supporters to stay home
I think we've seen enough evidence over the past 8 years that Dem voters are not having any difficulties with turnout
It only matters in a few states. Last time a republican won the popular vote was 2004. That same year MySpace was the most popular social media site and the Facebook was launched in a dorm room.
And that was an incumbent in the middle of a war. Have to go back to HW in '88 for the last 'real' Republican popular vote win
The Senate map is hard to near impossible with regular Dem turnout. even the kind from the past 8 years. Its going to have to be an even stronger turnout for those competitive seats
*This* is my concern. Trump will never increase his votes and has probably lost a big chunk of more moderate republicans. My concern is how many Gen Z and Muslim Americans that voted for Biden in 2020 will simply sit out this year.
This. They don’t understand how UNPOPULAR and immoral their positions are, so they’re willing to go full accelerationist and screw us all.
not many muslim americans even vote for dems.
I think the closer we get, the more focused the media will be on Trump and that in turn will make viewers more angry at him and turn out just to shut him down. At least that's my belief Donald is his own worst enemy and as much as people love him; the other majority can't stand him.
Agreed. His “popularity” is, really, limited. Only about 1 in 5 people would gravitate to a human like him. Tops. The other 4 out of 5 are, literally, revolted.
So turnout has been great among gen z the last few years and really improving with millennials, two distinctly more leftist generations. But like you said, it's not a sure thing, so keep hyping your friends, family and anyone else to register and actually drive them to the polls if you have to. What is more of a sure thing but less statistically obvious is that a lot of Trump supporters are dead. Excess deaths in the US- mostly from covid but also things like accidents, premature natural deaths and suicide- are hitting the demographics that have supported trump way, way, WAY harder than the rest of the US. Lots of people who voted for him last time who normally would be alive to vote for him this time are gone. A lot of Biden voters are also dead of excess deaths, but not nearly as many as trump voters. So between the high turnout of new voters and the uh. Fatality rate of Trump voters, there may have been a really big political demographic shift that nobody is reporting on.
This is becoming very common, and it's great: https://americanjournalnews.com/more-than-48600-18-year-olds-are-registered-to-vote-in-ohio-a-35-increase-from-late-august/
He doesn't need to broaden his base, he needs to splinter the opposition, and only in a few states, and not by very much. Thus he benefits from No Labels, Cornell West, Jill Stein, RFK Jr; probable concerted social media disinformation efforts concentrated in suburbs; Election Day shenanigans from Officials who are election deniers; innumerable unsubstantiated claims of fraud and tsunami of lawsuits; moves by state legislatures to invalidate results and officially substitute electors; etc. Have I missed anything? Maybe Ashley Biden's incriminating laptop this time, around Columbus Day
Everything Trump is doing is out of a fascist coup handbook. His strategy is to get 20% of the population so ANGRY if they lose that they'll turn a blind eye to violence and cheating in order to gain power, and then they'll act as the brownshirts that protect the coup in the aftermath. HOWEVER, America is not nearly bad off enough for this to work like it does in economically ravaged countries, historically speaking. The best outcome of a Trump loss (for him) would be Trump operating a "rebel" government out of Maralago where he tells GOP reps how to vote and castigates those that don't fall in line. Maybe get a few state legislatures to openly defy Federal law.
>America is not nearly bad off enough for this to work Keep in mind right-wing media is working tirelessly to convince their viewers the America is currently in the shitter and Trump is the way to prosperity. Just look at all the shit people are blaming Biden for. I got told a few days ago by someone I know IRL that it's Biden's fault groceries cost so much but of course they couldn't tell me WHY because they just hear shit on the radio or podcast and believe it. It worked with Obama too and that's how we got to Trump. Like they are pulling out all the same tricks this election that they did 2015. Exact same. 1)"Bombshell" corruption charges 2) "Caravans" of immigrants 3) Blame current Dem POTUS for rising prices instead of corporate greed and inflation (that magically don't become issues under a Republican administration) 4) Unrest in a foreign country They did this shit in 2019 and if it wasn't for COVID, which they had no playbook to handle politically, Trump might've been re-elected and the US would no longer be a part of NATO and we'd have 4 more years of a Russian puppet government.
Trump is losing bigly in the courts. $465M and counting.
While you're not wrong it's done very little to effect his supporters. In fact donations continue to pour in. Unless he is actually removed from the ballot people will vote for him. This will come down to turnout. People need to get out and vote because Trump supporters will be out in droves come election day.
>In fact donations continue to pour in. He's still raising millions per month, but he's spending millions more than he's taking in and a huge chunk of that is going to legal fees, not campaigning. Yes, it is technically early in the campaign cycle, but his fundraising picture is dire and even some of MAGA is balking at the idea of donating to fund his legal fees.
> He's still raising millions per month, [Citation Needed] > but he's spending millions more than he's taking in and a huge chunk of that is going to legal fees, not campaigning. And that's also stealing from downticket campaigns if he actually is "taking in millions".
It's effect on Trump himself is where I think the longer term political impact may well come from
He is in the process of taking over the RNC - to pay his legal bills and, thanks to him, the RNC is already running out of money. If the only candidate the RNC can support, ends up being Trump, where does that leave (already struggling) down ballot candidates? The answer is, he doesn't care and they will suffer, probably losing the House and the Senate. There are good odds 2024 sweeps all three branches. Trump will then just cash in where he is most capable. Complaining about how others fix issues and pretending he he would be better. We know he's not, because he showed us already. But he and his core will continue to scream "unfair" all the way to the dump.
No, his strategy has always been to demoralize others to the point of either not voting, or going third party. While giving his base enough fear and anger to ensure they'll be there.
After Hillary lost, I stopped believing in polls. I believe Trump will lose and my concern is what he and his base will do when he loses *again*.
I'm more concerned he'll have some sort of health event like a heart attack while campaigning and we'll never hear the end of Biden/FBI/CIA/Communists/LGBT Community/Mexico/you name it killed trump conspiracies.
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Actually virtually all polls said Hillary would win. This is from an ad hoc [review](https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AAPOR-2016-Election-Polling-Report.pdf) >The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. Pre-election polls fueled high-profile predictions that Hillary Clinton’s likelihood of winning the presidency was about 90 percent, with estimates ranging from 71 to over 99 percent. When Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidency in the early hours of November 9th, it came as a shock even to his own pollsters (Jacobs and House 2016). There was (and continues to be) widespread consensus that the polls failed. But did the polls fail? And if so why? Those are the central questions addressed in this report.
But the last two general elections significantly underestimated Republican support, why do you think it's flipped now?
Trump can lose the election and still win the electoral college...
I've said this around here before, but my husband and I both have families and extended social circles that historically lean heavily conservative. However, only a few of these people are still part of the MAGA cult - most never were truly part of it in the first place. They voted for Trump in 2016, but by 2020 had seen the error of their ways and voted for Biden, which is still their plan this year assuming Trump is the GOP nominee. From the MAGAs I've heard from thus far, they are emphatic that if Nikki Haley somehow becomes the nominee, they will not vote for her. Trump is their god, period, the end. Some of them, I think, would've maybe voted for DeSantis had it gotten to that point, but Haley is a hard pass. However, from the non-MAGA Republicans, most of them have been quite clear that they are only voting GOP at the top of the ticket if Nikki Haley is the nominee, that if it's a choice between Trump or Biden, they will once again vote for Biden. I'm not complacent, and god knows there's still plenty of time between now and the election for anything to happen, but I'd honestly be a lot more concerned about a GOP victory if Haley was on the ballot. She'd get the non-MAGA Republicans to vote for her, at least some small percentage of the dedicated MAGAs who would pinch their nose and vote for her to avoid a Democrat victory, and probably at least some independents. Trump's not getting any of those people except for his base.
This is exactly what we said would happen. Trump has no ability to expand his voting base and it's constantly shrinking, so unless something wild happens, the election outcome from 2020 will be the same as 2024.
I had high hopes that America would do what’s right and that Trump would lose in a landslide but then I read 538 poll analysis and it is terrifying and so last weekend’s(?) NYT Opinion pages had a moderated discussion with independent voters and it was also scary. I don’t think we realize just how many people are not paying attention to the news… at all! Or don’t understand how our government works! Or understand the implications of Trumps rants and the things people around him are saying. My hope is that the low-information people will just sit it out. My hope is that Biden’s campaign will ramp up and start calling out every cognitive misstep, every indictment, every fascist phrase uttered by Trump (and point out to the American public, the implications for the fascist rant) will be broadcast far and wide and scare the bejesus out of people in to voting. Do I want Biden to step down and Ms. Wittier run or Mr. Newsom to run? Yes I do. But that’s not the hand we have been dealt with. Not voting or giving your vote to a 3rd party is simply a vote for fascism. And more than likely, it be the last time you will ever have to chance to vote if you don’t.
I'm not a political genius, but I do know people. And people across the board are sick and tired of Trump. They're tired of seeing him, they're tired of hearing about him, they're tired of the impressions, the soundbytes, the jokes, and the threats. Nobody wants another 4 years of this fucking asshole in our lives. People just want to go back to not caring about politics anymore. They want stability, they want to stop worrying, and they want to stop being embarrassed about being an American. At this point, everyone knows the consequences of voting him in again. They know what he said he's going to do, and they know *at best* it's going to be what happened in 2016. And this time Trump doesn't have the benefit of the doubt. He's not gaining supporters, and nobody is falling for his lies. He's hemorrhaging support on the ground, and there's nothing that's going to stop the bleeding. Whoever he picks for VP is going to be a known Trump sycophant, and that's going to make voting for him look even worse. Nobody wants MGT or Boebert as Vice President, his base is too racist for a Tim Scott; There's nobody that can help boost support for him. I think, barring any shenanigans, he's going to lose the election and lose it BADLY.
What a terrible first half of this headline but terrible headlines are the norm now. He has underperformed polling and drastically underperformed for a quasi-incumbent. Trump and winning are not synonymous and should not be together in any headline.
Indeed there are few new voters coming his way. The ones that support him are the loudest. If you sway a couple to at least not vote for Trump, that would be a plus.
And they’ve nearly raised enough money to pay all of the judgements against him. Nearly!
This is so obvious, but it is rarely stated. Everyone prefers treating 2024 as if it's still 2016, and he's still an unknown or outsider deserving of a chance to try something different. You don't get a mulligan after an entire administration of failure just because you didn't like it that he didn't get reelected.
His base isn't large enough to win an election, he'll need independents and they've been voting against Republican candidates despite not liking Biden that much.
Cult in love with cult leader, everyone else, not so much. I would hardly call that winning.
*His voters so far are overwhelmingly white, mostly older than 50 and generally without a college degree.* If the youth vote turns out this November, Biden will win. Please don't take this election lightly because a lot of people's livelihoods is riding on this vote. [www.vote.org](https://www.vote.org) and find out how you can contribute at r/VoteDEM
You can’t cure them and you can’t change them. We just have to beat them and beat them bad.
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That's why red state voter suppression efforts will be in full force. Biden didn't win by that many votes in the swing states. all Republican have to is get those torals down for biden.
>8 in 10 support social security They are really not very bright, are they?
Candidates can't win a primary without Trump. Candidates can't win a general with Trump. This includes candidate Trump.
His base lost the last election
It’s like living through 2016 again. Few things have hit me harder than what my wife (then-girlfriend) said on election night 2016: “What the fuck am I going to tell my kids tomorrow?” She was a public school teacher at an elementary school with a lot of BIPOC and Muslim students at the time.
None of that really matters. He lost the popular vote by millions in 2016 and still became President. What DOES matter is a few tens of thousands of votes in exactly the right districts in a few swing states. In fact, that's the ONLY thing that matters in a Presidential election. We've found that out multiple times already.
And the people at his rallies are not gonna show to the polls since every thing is rigged against trump
Much of his base are now felons.
He loses support every time he opens his mouth.
It’s absolutely impossible for him to broaden his support. he has painted himself into a corner.
He's not winning big with his base either. He is barely mustering a majority. It's clear her doesn't even have a super majority among republicans.
Fact he's not. He's losing more and more suburban women and this time it's Republican suburban women-many of whom just want him to shut up and go away. He has no problem in rural areas but everyone knows that cities are the ones to elect POTUS. If he's doing bad in Charleston, SC-he's pretty much toast. But that's not the horse-race analysis that the media want.
I think his base is clueless at how off-putting and weird they've become. Too-Online people are used to it somewhat but outside of that context, Trump Supporters make people uncomfortable.
His support is overblown.
Maga can’t win an election I’m amazed at how utterly stupid trump is for thinking they can. Trump won 1 election where a lot of people had the thought of how bad can it be. Well people found out pretty fucking quickly and since then it’s been one loss after another. Look at the primary results yeah he’s won them all but only getting a small margin of victory. I can’t imagine many independents voting trump
And they are dying off.
He’s going to take the same “L” he took last time, but this time prison time and bankruptcy will be waiting on the other side!☑️
All the bigots are sticking with the orange turd
The more extreme he gets, the smaller his base will get. He will only have very vocal rabid cultists left. Not enough to get elected.
He’s toast. His base are cultists. There is nobody jumping on his team at this point, it’s an embarrassing skidmark on the underpants of democracy.
No sign? I read two articles yesterday that said his support for black people in Michigan has quadrupled. I think it was Mother Jones too.
This story has been recycled from the 2015 republican primaries.
This. I'm getting so much deja vu.
...and yet Biden and Trump are tied in the polls.
Trump is beating Biden in most of the swing states according to the newest polling.
I’m straight up terrified we are about to lose our democracy. I live in California which is very blue, however, I know so many trump supporters now. It freaking scares me. Trump is getting people through Tucker fucking Carlson on You Tube.
Wow a guy is doing well with the people that support him? Incredible news. Really digging deep on these articles.
This headline is absolutely the worst I have read so far in regards to accuracy in relation to the content - or reality
So much makeup
Cult leader hold on to cult following… wow.
Big concern is Michigan. Before the October Israel/ Iran conflict, Mich was solidly in Biden’s camp. Especially after Roe and all that. But after Israel carpet bombed Gaza and Biden’s blind and unquestioning support of Israel, there are lots of Muslims and young people in Mich that are pissed. Not myself, but I know many who are one-issue voters that have said they will never vote Biden. They may not vote for Trump but they will not show up. Has me very concerned.
Been saying this for over 2 years. He’s a weak candidate.
How about the polls that show him doing way better than in 2020? Do those count as a sign?
What scares me is the undecideds. There are people who haven’t been paying attention who don’t know how bad trump actually is. All they hear on true news is Biden is old and trump is crazy. Maybe some Joe Schmo in Milwaukee will think inflation isn’t slowing down fast enough and will vote for trump because the media keeps calling Biden old
He’s a badly behaved AI in training, seeking to score points that weight individual passion over sheer numbers.
He’s going to end up with that base plus an ever shrinking remainder of the r’s. Please vote. Especially in swing states. I hope this election is an even larger margin than ‘20
He doesn't *need* broad support anymore than Hitler did in Germany. He just needs people to not care enough to vote against him.