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He had a 1/3 chance before 2016.
To be clear, I think his chances of winning will actually be 'worse' this time, but that doesn't mean you presume anything. We 'must' do more than just "barely win". We must win as big as possible, work to hold the senate (not an easy task, but absolutely possible), flip the house, and do anything we can to fix the judiciary. We must organize and r/votedem.
We cannot afford to slack off here whether or not Trump is vulnerable. Polling doom despair which creates apathy and its opposite end, overconfident complacency, works both ways, and can be a tool of the rich that gets manipulated in either direction, rather than the data science one claims it should be.
As somebody from a land down under, I can’t believe it’s even close. Trump is the most grotesque human being drawing breath. He shouldn’t have a whisper of a chance. Yet here we are. Nearly half of the USA will vote for a convicted felon, confirmed rapist, buffoonish coward who once took money from a kids cancer charity fund. WTF???
I agree. I'm Canadian and shocked. The fact that he even has people still supporting him in Congress and so on just shocks the hell out of me. These people are evil. Any educated person and most uneducated know he's an absolute fucking dangerous moron.
Oh the irony that your export, Rupert Murdoch is the one that made this all possible. His network has been fostering hatred for Democrats for almost 30 years now, and they work tirelessly to normalize all things Trump to this day. They remain the #1 news network in the US with something insane like 35% of all news consumption. This is what makes everything else possible. I know FOX News junkies personally. Their brains have been re-written. It's depressing and infuriating.
Honestly, I truly question if it is. I don't think he has the advantages he had in 2016. I think the polls are not at all reliable this cycle in either direction and we're flying a lot more blind than people realize. Election trends themselves paint a 'much' bleaker picture for the GOP as a whole, so far...
However, I stand by my original statement. It's foolish to ever get complacent, and we need a big win to deal with the real threat, [which is project 2025.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYwqpx6lp_s) Which does not even need Trump to implement if the GOP gets back in power without a humiliating defeat to make the party shift and change priorities.
The simple truth is the GOP always wanted a full fascist takeover, but needed the SCOTUS to begin implementing their real agenda. Trump gave them what was needed, partially by design, partially by sheer dumb luck. 50 years of a seemingly more secular society fooled people into thinking those norms would be permanent, and by most reasonable accounts they would be, except for the fact that religious authoritarianism turns out to be a tool rich fascists to try and control the rest of us, which is much harder to stamp out when wealth concentration has gotten as bad and as globalized as it has in recent decades.
We have a lot of reasons to be hopeful. The GOP's con is starting to become much more obvious to most people, but we are simultaneously also more vulnerable than ever. If we don't push back electorally now, there may well not be another chance. Replacing Trump will be extraordinarily difficult, and that's the one good thing about soundly defeating him we may have on our side.
Those odds just seem so off.
Someone recently said “everyone on my social media is voting for Trump.” But on my social media…it’s a goddamned ghost town, let alone people going public this election with their voting intentions.
Yeah everyone in your social media is pretty homogenous. That's how the algorithms work. I look at one MMA video on Facebook and my feed turns really right wing really fast.
It's weird because I give the algo's plenty to work with, I'm online far too much. But if I accidentally click on one wrong short YouTube assumes I only want to see Chem trails and authoritarianism for like, 1-2 days.
Ain't that the truth. I was watching a video where they sourced a right wing commentator and I wanted a bit more context and hunted down the clip they used to watch the 15min video where they pulled a 50s clip from. Next thing I know I'm getting "LOL LIBERAL SOYBOY CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH" type videos plastering themselves across YouTube. They're almost all gone now, but for a few days it was whack.
Alternatively I watched 1 Mario kart 8 speed run yesterday and now I have my feed full of "GO FROM PLAIN JOE TO PRO WITH THESE EASY MOVES" and I have to filter that out now too.
When stuff like this happens on YouTube, if you know the video that got YouTube thinking you now want right wing bs, you can go to your watch history and delete it (and any others in the same vein after that one). That should get you back to not seeing them.
Ok. As far as I understand this is how it works.
People who watch that shit REALLY watch that shit and therefore it gets pushed harder.
If I listen to an eminem song I'm not getting that stuff pushed. This tells me that people listening to one don't necessarily click on another. Therefore the algorytm doesn't push it that badly. I can go and listen to a few songs of artists without it taking over my recommended.
But a person clicking right wing shit does click right wing shit, again, and again, and again.
There's life outside of the internet, try talking to some real people. I have no political affiliation but many and I can't stress enough how many people are voting for Trump. Minorities especially.
2016 taught us to not take this shit for granted.
Yep, and it feels like real conversations might be able to impact to some extent, because many are not turning to Trump as a man with great ideas, but because they're frustrated. The political noise pushes people to blame whoever's in power for everything wrong in the world, while attempting to posture the opponent as a polar opposite, so their ideas must be good or potentially work better.
It's appalling the number of people who harbor resentment and blame, but whose basis for those sentiments is not rooted in tangible evidence, but rather ecochambers promoting homogenized blame campaigns.
Most people aren’t terminally online and have goldfish memories, they aren’t constantly reminded how much of a shit show Trump was and will continue to be if reelected. The general sentiment from most people who don’t follow politics closely is that republicans are better when it comes to the economy, despite 30+ years of counter proof.
The issue is that this will come down to basically 6 percent of the population in 6battlegrounds, those being Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.
Unless some drastic shift in either Florida or Texas happen and it flips for Biden, Trump is actually fucking favored to win. Our electoral system is fucked.
Go out and vote, even if your state is deep blue. I’m in New Jersey and we are slight blue with a lot of republicans coming out recently. I will do my part to stopping it from even becoming close to a toss up
I really do not know what to think in terms of who has what chance to win. I feel like previous models just don't account for the current bizarre situation. At the same time, I don't want to fall into some kind of relaxed thinking that Trump's lead is just propaganda that can be ignored.
I cannot stand how this absolute wreck of a political system is consuming more and more of our time and psychic energy with every cycle.
This sub is so misleading and echo chambery sometimes. It reminds me when Bernie vs Biden was a thing and Bernie was getting demolished/this sub made it seem like Bernie was doing great.
These numbers are fucking terrifying. 538 has it as a toss up. Economist as a domination for Trump.
As an outsider (not American), this just seems insane. Trump has no platform, no policies, no vision, is now a convicted Felon, and has already lost to Biden once. The idea that he would dominate in this election seems unbelievable - and if it turns out to be accurate, is frankly embarrassing for the US.
Definitely. Only a fool, like this headline, tries to predict the future. Most of us on this sub know their extremely dirty play style and every election season they've pushed that envelope further. Expect the worst and get as many to the polls as possible. In urban areas, bring grandpa's wheelchair, water, snacks and a battery pack for the phone. Camp out that shit.
I still find it utterly surreal that this conniving , traitorous grifter, the man who caused a violent attempt to overthrow the peaceful transition of power, is even being fucking considered. Seriously, WTF?
trump should be polling at <1%. In a healthy system, trump would have been behind bars well before he ever had a chance to run in 2016. This is all such a damning indictment of just how corrupt the system is and it's becoming more corrupt by the day.
We live in two very different media spheres. If Fox "Entertainment" News and all the other professional propagandists were required to be truthful in their storytelling we wouldn't be in this situation in the first place.
Correct!
LONG, LONG gone are the days where fact checking and truth mattered. It was easy then to know what the “bogus news” was, as it was the Star or National Enquirer.
Trump showed the world that you can say and do whatever the hell you want and suffer little, if any, consequences.
Hell, Fox had to pay $700 million for doing that, but did it stop them?
The fact that he’s relevant AT ALL today shows how utterly fucked up the GOP is. I’d be beyond embarrassed to say I’m a Republican today.
This all started during the Reagan administration when the [Fairness Doctrine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairness_doctrine) was repealed. Fox News was created shortly after.
EDIT: Others have pointed out that the fairness doctrine didn't apply to cable, I guess it was coincidence that cable TV started taking off right after it was repealed. But I do believe it opened the door to being able to just make shit up.
Fairness doctrine repeal didn't directly give us Fox if I remember the law correctly. It did create right wing talk am radio.
Basically, the FCC fairness doctrine was applied to OTA broadcast - because the airwaves are publicly owned and limited - so licenses to broadcast are supposed to serve public interest.
Cable TV didn't really have to worry about this kind of thing either way. I guess the fairness doctrine repeal did help create the format and set the stage though.
The '96 Telecom bill really accelerated things, though, where large businesses could own more of the local stations... so you got things like the rise of Sinclair.
Almost everything that was enacted from Reagan through Bush 2 was *extremely bad* even if it seemed like a good idea and progressive at the time, or just sort of "inside baseball" unimportant industry shit. If you ever wonder why something evil exists in the US, start with the Reagan admin and work forward. It's in there.
Definitely need a comprehensive 21st-century marketplace of ideas law that covers everything from social media to public broadcasting. The First Amendment should never be used as a defense of being willfully, profoundly untruthful or fraudulent. Problem is it wouldn’t pass in a million years and the corrupt court would strike it down before the ink was dry.
Although the Fairness Doctrine did not apply to cable, there's no reason why it couldn't have been expanded to include cable
The argument a lot of people make is that broadcast channels were limited, whereas cable is not... but cable is pretty damn limited too.
The other big problem is that ownership rules were loosened both by Republican presidents and by Bill Clinton, which is how you get Rush Limbaugh on every podunk AM station in the lower 48, huge newspaper chains, Sinclair owning lots of local TV stations, and so on.
Put those two things together and you get a vast right wing propaganda sphere... and that's not even counting the increasingly corporate-controlled internet.
When I did political polling, it was a huge pain to get data on Republicans because they’d say they “didn’t belong to a political party” or “just follow the truth” or get offended we even asked.
Then they’d take the survey and give near verbatim Fox News talking points for 20 minutes.
We all knew that the more someone protested that they didn’t have a party or “didn’t get involved in politics” the further right their answers would be.
I agree with this 100 percent. I grew up in the Walter Cronkite era and later even Peter Jennings, Tom Brokaw, etc. where there were journalistic standards and ethics and the truth mattered. No “alternate facts” or spin.
Reagan got rid of the FCC’s Fairness Doctrine, which allowed Fox and other “entertainment news” channels to broadcast alternate facts. The GOP decided that they needed their own TV network during Nixon’s administration. Republicans have been working the long game for decades and here we are.
> Reagan got rid of the FCC’s Fairness Doctrine, which allowed Fox and other “entertainment news” channels to broadcast alternate facts.
The Fairness Doctrine only covered the airwaves because the FCC manages the broadcast spectrum. As soon as Cable TV became a thing it was obsolete.
If you want to place blame appropriately, you need to look at [The Telecommunications Act of 1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunications_Act_of_1996). That's the legislation that allowed the massive media consolidation you see that allows Sinclair to buy local media stations and push a coordinated Republican Message. That's what gave Clear Channel the ability to snarf up all your local radio stations and replace them with garbage. That was the bill that allowed the telecoms to buy each other which eventually eliminated the variety of choice for ISPs and it was the bill that allowed banks to merge with no limit, creating the "Too Big to Fail" monstrosities.
My pet conspiracy theory is the “Dean Scream” controversy was ginned up by the media because Howard Dean wanted to repeal the Telecom Act. IIRC, he was the only candidate against it.
That’s not actually what happened though. As television and radio took off, each station was granted a broadcast license that used radio spectrum from the public domain. Each station was actually being granted a little monopoly over a frequency, and that frequency was owned by the public, not the station. So in those early days, the notion that station licensees had a legal and moral obligation to serve the public’s interests were baked into station regulations.
The problem isn’t that any politician or agency deregulated the broadcast industry. It’s that the spectrum mandate that justified some regulation over broadcasters does not apply to cable delivery. And thus cable ushered in an entirely new unregulated paradigm. The ability of the government to regulate content that I pay for to have privately delivered to my home is, and should be, pretty much non-existent. And, here we are.
Combined with a systematic undermining of education from only one side of the aisle for over 40 years, and many of the populace lack critical thinking skills.
Not by mistake, but by design.
The media explains his elevation to the White House.
The media does not explain how he managed to be a career criminal for decades without a criminal record and only ever having to pay civil fines for clear criminal activity.
It shows how corrupting money is on not just our political system, but our judicial and criminal justice systems.
It also shows how corporate personhood shields white collar criminals from personal responsibility for criminal activity - even if the corporate personhood is only a handful of people.
It seems like the only time a white collar criminal faces consequences is if he defrauds a major corporation or other rich and connected people.
Also, people have justification to be so angry at our political system they are willing to risk letting it burn, even willing to vote for someone who promises to be a dictator.
At this point they don’t want policies they want punishment. They want retribution. And Trump is sociopathic enough to give them a list of groups and names to blame for everything, and he promised to be their retribution.
> At this point they don’t want policies they want punishment. They want retribution and Trump is sociopathic enough to give them a list of groups and names to blame for everything and promised to be their retribution.
This is a recurring theme in human history. Life is complicated and messy. An opportunistic political movement can exploit that messiness by convincing a majority that the bumps and bruises of daily life are being caused by some identifiable minority.
“We let black people have rights, and prices have gone up ever since. Ever notice that gas prices have gone up ever since we started letting women vote? We let gay people marry, and woman have reproductive rights, and now groceries are more expensive. When are we going to wake up and smell the roses and realize these people are destroying our country.”
That paragraph sounds utterly absurd to many of us, but also resonates deeply with enough people that you can build a groundswell on it.
It is so bad that they would now lose viewers by telling the truth. Their audience is offended by the truth. Reality is a place they don’t want to live.
Also how corrupt people are. I often ponder the likelihood that much of Trump's base supports him bc of their own history of sexuall assault, tax evasion, financial fraud, adultery, dishonesty, and violence.
It must be a relief to find those things legitimized by a "leader."
Didn’t he recently say something like “I don’t care about you just vote for me” at a rally?
Lmao not trying to nitpick I just remembered how insane that was.
It's mostly this. Primarily against immigrants. The one common denominator that I've experienced with Trump supporters in my own life has been statements about the country being full, complaining about people getting benefits while they have to work, etc. I can usually shut them up for a few minutes by pointing out their hypocrisy (it's not like our family came over on the Mayflower) and what they'd have to have gone through to even get super temporary benefits, but minutes to days later, they're right back at it.
And remember when boasting about how smart & strong you were would get you laughed out of a room? Every time that whiny doofus gets behind a podium he's like "I'm a big boy...I know big words" and because the Right has weaponized America's ignorance/hatred half the country eats it up.
Take heart: it’s way less than half, and always has been. Although there were indeed a lot of votes for him in the past, plenty of those were people holding their noses, not passionately in favor.
“You are the wolf you feed” plays here - if they support trump even begrudgingly, they’re just as ignorant/malicious as those who do so enthusiastically.
In every conversation I actually sit down and have with republicans, I eventually get past all the bullshit talking points and they slip up and say "I just like that he hates liberals and my side is winning"
Nothing actually matters the them except that they win and feel like the smart righteous side because of it
Seriously. I was recently in Florida for my high school reunion, and I saw a man, maybe 45 years old or so, at the park with his family wearing a t-shirt with a picture of Trump and the words "I **LOVE** TRUMP BECAUSE HE **PISSES OFF** THE PEOPLE I **CAN'T STAND**".
What a sentiment.
Meanwhile the people he "can't stand" are fighting for things that will benefit him and greater society: affordable healthcare, affordable housing, livable wages, sustainable energy, etc.
Seriously.
[Register to vote](https://www.vote.org/) (vote.org)
[How Voting Works - What to expect if you're voting for the first time](https://www.wikihow.com/Vote-in-the-United-States) (wikihow)
The footballification of politics has become too real.
How often do you see fans openly cheer for a player on their team who has been convicted of Rape, Domestic Abuse, Sexual Assault, Drug related charges etc.
A lot of fans and clubs DO NOT CARE so long as that player is wearing their colours.
Trump then brought pro wrestling into the mainstream of team sports politics. He is a WWE Hall of Famer after all. (Actually surprised he never brings that up)
Is he though?
Yeah, we have polls showing a close contest, but other streams of evidence don't appear to support that statement.
His once-bigly rallies are now a side show
His cult members are leaving in droves
Independents have swung bigly towards the left
Key minions and sycophants aside, we are starting to see shifts within the House and Senate
In red Texas, I see maybe 1 MAGA hat a week, as opposed to the 20 or 30 a day years ago; also no signs and most of the bumper stickers I've seen are faded
70% of Americans are pro-marijuana and 63% think abortion should be legal; these are massive issues and Donald is on the opposing side
There's also the felony conviction, rape, racism, and he is definitely succumbing to dementia. I despise the dude, but that is not a fun process and wouldn't wish it on anyone. I think many are taking note of the decline.
TL;DR: Polls are just one piece
I want to believe you, but everything you're saying other than the stats about certain issues, which I'd contend seem to matter less and less these days, are anecdotal. What evidence have you seen that his "cult members are leaving in droves"?
The evidence is that Trump has consistently underperformed the polls since 2018. Even 2022, in which Congress was going to be flooded by a red wave, the GOP only barely managed to take control of the House.
Don't just look at who wins a particular seat. Also pay attention to how much they won and how much they were expecting to win by.
This is why the GOP is freaking out right now. If the numbers were healthy, they would be gloating about it
The red wave being more of a splash is certainly a positive sign, but Trump has also been polling really well depending on which polls you look at. The poll cited in this very article says despite his slide he still maintains a sizable advantage.
Thinking the cult is leaving him "in droves" is reading far too much into some cherry picked evidence. This is a very unsafe assumption.
There are SO many things he has done that should’ve been the end of his political career (John McCain comments, mocking disabled reporter, grab her by the p*ssy, multiple failed businesses, ‘look at my African-American’, insulting a gold star family, Central Park Five, mishandling the pandemic, saying for years that his big, beautiful healthcare plan would be ready in two weeks, trying to overthrow the government, everything he doesn’t win is ‘rigged’). It has become so common that it’s now normalized.
I truly believe most people see right through his bullshit, as evidenced by him losing the popular vote twice, but it’s a vocal minority that always makes me wonder.
A lot of people are saying there might be Russian mafia ties in New York City going way back (Giuliani, Cohen).
And that his first political forays were soon after being taken to Russia.
The Russians hacked the DNC and released everything to the public, they hacked the RNC too and didn’t publish it but the party all swung behind him and all started to kiss his ass all the time.
The Republicans did it to themselves in 2016. Much like the Democrats did that year with Bernie, but on a much larger scale. Too many candidates stayed in too long. Had most dropped out and coalesced around one person against Trump- he wouldn’t have won the nomination. Rubio, and even Bush probably could’ve gotten the nomination in 2016. The fringe right (that mostly supports Trump today) had not yet started to show up in numbers for him.
None of the current GOP players that support Trump did so in 2016. They all switched to become his lap dog after seeing how vocal his supporters started to become. Which yes, is in large part due to the propaganda machine of right wing media (and the Russian social media bots spreading misinformation). We literally had senators and congressional representatives who were so much against Trump that now worship the ground he walks on. Literal hero worship. That kind of hero worship is so extremely dangerous. Example: Germany, 1933-1945.
Thanks electoral college. We are all beholden to the worse people and worse ideologies due to this archaic system where one’s votes can matter more than others. Makes no sense.
People who yell about the "tyranny of the majority" don't understand the steps that the founding fathers took to try to prevent that from being a problem. They also don't understand that "We're a republic, not a democracy!" is propaganda meant to take power away from citizens.
But really, they don't understand much of anything.
"Conniving, traitorous grifter"?
Who can you mean?
Surely not convicted on 34 counts felon, adjudicated rapist, wife beater, twice impeached, multiple bankruptee, and loser of the 2020 US Presidential Election Donald J. Trump?
Him?
> I still find it utterly surreal that this conniving , traitorous grifter, the man who caused a violent attempt to overthrow the peaceful transition of power, is even being fucking considered. Seriously, WTF?
Half of the US population is full blown idiots, just like every other place on Earth. A single person can be smart, but people in general are dumb as fuck.
Lot of rich motherfuckers who stand to gain who can also game the system, and also way too many dumb motherfuckers who don’t know a fucking thing about politics but love reality tv.
He was never planning on “winning” they ARE planning on stealing.
As per Roger Stone, Bannon and Lara Trump.
They are going to sue, cheat, steal and fix everything they can to draw this out and sabotage America.
Bush Vs Gore was when the supreme court handed the election to Bush. Had they allowed the recount to proceed, Gore would have won.
The GOP and Supreme Court already have form for this and it worked once before.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore
That was dependent on a spectacularly close election (EDIT: And..I'd argue - a Chief Justice that was going senile - Rhenquest wasn't in great health when he grabbed that case, it was seen in the moment as a clumsy bid for legacy).
There is no evidence that another Biden/Trump matchup will create a close result in the electoral college.
Biden beat Trump by the same EC margin Trump beat Clinton.
What can Biden do about it? His job is to let the system play out the way it’s intended, and whoop trump’s ass at the polls. Beyond that, there’s no scheming to be done in the Biden camp.
They don't seem to be doing enough.
You cant say Trump has not been successful in using his judges / the courts to his advantage? Gumming up and deflecting any real repercussions for his actions.
Suing Fani Willis and delaying that case, The Supreme Court slow walking his immunity, Judge Eileen Cannon, you cant say they dont have the ability to cause significant damage, delays, distractions, repetitional damage. And, they could even steal the election.
We have out and out rogue states that are making laws to prevent democracy. Not just the usual voter manipulation, dropping voter rolls, Gerrymandering. Out and out laws that say "we decide."
This is not without risk and real damage.
This should be the top comment. This is a dumb, meaningless article with a completely deceptive title.
The comments are full of people saying “don’t believe it! Vote!” as if the article said that trump can’t win now. He’s still the clear favorite in the model they refer to.
It’s so boring and predictable. Every Newsweek article is that way. I don’t know why they haven’t blacklisted Newsweek. It’s not a legitimate news organization.
At the top of this article for me was a link to another article from 3 days ago about how his chances have increased in 538’s model. They’re taking statistical noise and turning it into stupid clickbait.
That said, I hope people on the left will understand that Trump doesn’t just have a chance at winning, he’s on track to win. The only way that changes is if enough people in swing states vote for Biden.
>That said, I hope people on the left will understand that Trump doesn’t just have a chance at winning, he’s on track to win
Yeah man, people on this sub are really struggling to grapple with that fact. Most people here seem to think Trump has no chance and is going to lose in a landslide, in spite of there being literally no evidence of that at all. I saw a guy the other day saying there is "no math that gives Trump a victory" and I'm like... no math?? When he's currently ahead in every swing state? I've seen others say that they think Texas and Florida are going to flip blue and others say that we're likely to see the biggest Democratic landslide since 1932. When I ask people why they think this in spite of all evidence pointing in the other direction, it's pretty much just their gut saying so
Don't believe any poll anywhere, at any time. Just get out and vote against the greatest threat to American democracy in our lifetimes. Remember, Putin isn't resting in his Irregular Warfare where he's using proxies, yes you Republicans and MAGA cultists to defeat America. Add in the countless billions of dollars that are being spent by the nation's richest people and other interested parties overseas, and we are very close to losing our American democracy.
I agree and can't wait until the Rapist Fascist Felon X34 with 57 pending, is not in our faces every damn day.
I don't know how the stupid cult listens to this moron. He always sounds so fucking stupid. Just a lying sack of vomit
This far in advance, polls mean jack fucking all, and we are increasingly running into things where methodology matters, and matters a lot.
I generally trust Nate Silver’s analysis, but that’s not “polling” in the traditional sense. And it’s accurate largely in a way that requires one to understand how statistics work, looking at odds of winning, not how the 100 people they got to pick up a phone are likely to vote.
Another challenge is finding an *authentic* random sampling of the population. Many polls are done via text/mobile. Who the hell picks up the phone or replies to a strange phone number? A good number of people view unsolicited contact as intrusive. Others may immediately dismiss it as either spam or a scam.
Meanwhile, some demographics are more susceptible/eager to respond to these solicitations. Others have mistrust in institutions. Some may be eager beavers and will give their opinion to anybody who will listen.
Factor in polls conducted by landline. Who owns a landline phone anymore? You might receive a number of seniors or rural individuals. That might be fine and dandy if that's your targeted audience.
Perhaps online panels. There's a problem with those, though. Weigh the concerns with the survey link expiration. A lot of polling wants to be fast, which sacrifices accuracy. Individuals who sign up for online panels may have life obligations, preventing them from providing an immediate response. This could be anything from employment/school, a *second* job, family, errands, etc. A day or two go by and you finally get around to it. Except now, the invite has expired and the survey is closed.
Even short attention spans. "*Ehh... I just got this email. I'll respond later*." Again, the survey is no longer accepting responses.
Political attitudes and voter trends will be very difficult to measure based on methodology, especially in this digital age. Then you have terms of "likely voters" versus "registered voters". Individuals answering these polls may be *likely* voters, but also should not infer they \*will\* vote in the primaries or election day. While more people may have voted in 2020, actual turnout was somewhat abysmal at ~66%.
Whether you're chronically online or belong to an under-served demographic with limited/no online access, it may be an uphill battle to reach individuals for their opinions. The sampling becomes less and less random. Toss in methodology of how the questions were asked, the wording, results interpretation, bias for who the poll is being conducted for (e.g. specific new network, party, et al.), and a slew of other problems. Data quality.
Also remember, the [polling numbers in 2020 contained the highest level of error since 19**80**](https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/13/politics/2020-polling-error-research/index.html). And this was \*after\* poll predictors were adamant resolving the discrepancies from the 2016 election cycle. These pollsters still have a lot of work to do.
I remember clutching my pearls as the possibility of Clinton getting a BJ was the most horrendous thing a president ever did. I love how Republicans will say stuff like Jack Black is an actor and he needs to shut up and act. This from the party that elected Arnold, Reagan and Trump.
the propaganda from the right is going to be cranked to 11 in the coming months. if you think its bad now, just wait until we're a month away from election and they're backed into a corner. all their projections about 'false flag' operations are going to come true as the dirtiest tricks used to sway a people are used.
Volunteer to get the vote out. If you have the chance to spend a couple of months doing something much more meaningful than joining the army to kill someone, then do it.
Everybody is going to vote. Everybody knows that this is basically Armageddon for the US. The fate of the country has never rested on an election like it does in November. I don't think it is an overstatement to say that the only more fateful event since the founding was the Civil War.
That time [Nixon sabotaged peace talks](https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/06/nixon-vietnam-candidate-conspired-with-foreign-power-win-election-215461/) because he knew he'd get more votes if the Vietnam war was still raging... that's got to be up there.
Reagan and Republicans very likely negotiated with Iran to retain hostages until after the election as well. It's almost like the GOP is a group of really bad people...
Same thing today, the GOP are the ones unanimously pushing for more military aid to Israel, but they're perfectly content with letting people believe that the Palestinian deaths are on Biden. Literally fueling their campaign with Palestinian blood.
And that's not even the half of it. The invasion of Ukraine was timed for a reason. Putin has long had plans for that, and it would have been much more convenient for him had his little buddy won reelection in 2020/succeeded in his coup attempt in 2021. Saudi Arabia has leveraged its control to keep gas prices high. Corporations have been gouging prices and hiding behind the inflation excuse the whole way. Some of it is greed, but a lot of it is aimed at helping Trump/Republicans get back into power.
When they do focus groups, people talk about inflation and gas prices. It's absurd because neither have much to do with who's president. But that's how a lot of people vote.
And the age issue. Even though Trump is just a few years younger, he projects more energy and vigor. People ignore the nonsensical things he's saying that indicate age.
It's all absurd but this is what seems to be going on.
Not just favored, heavily favored with, according to the economist, a 66% chance at winning down from 75%. Pretty sure both that publication and newsweek are garbage. Still doesn’t change the fact that people need to vote.
I don't believe anything that comes out from newsweek anymore. This is by far the worst source of information full of click baits and for some reason the mods here are fine with it.
Their plan is not to win. It is to create chaos. A hundred thousand poll watchers, each reporting or concocting every "fishy" thing they saw, or every way they were barred from "fairly" monitoring the election. Followed by frivolous lawsuits in all of the swing states, anywhere they can raise a question. Republicans in Congress will give this "legitimacy" by going to media and by declaring on the House and Senate floors that there needs to be an investigation. The suits will get to the SCOTUS, who will toss it to the House to decide. They will do a state by state vote. Republicans have more states in Congress, so they will vote Trump and he will win. That's their plan. They don't have to win. They have to put on a really big show.
The best hope we have is to not have close votes in swing states. I don't know how to make that clear and urgent enough to the people in these states, but that's what needs to happen.
I still can’t believe that there’s genuine people out there across the pond that idolise this man.. the fact that people drive around with their political beliefs plastered all over their car is a surreal thing to see for us Brits.
ive seen a concerning amount of news with headlines like “trump numbers are down and he wont win election” theyre trying to trick us to not vote because they want us to think were in the clear and he wont win no matter what. GO VOTE dont listen to these headlines this is their tactic to keep people from voting that think everything is under control.
Hey anti Biden progressives who don’t want to vote for him because of Israels genocide.
Vote for Biden,
Trump stated he will help Netanyahu finish the job completely.
Kushner said the West Bank will be developed for luxury condos.
I’m an anti Biden progressive and I’m going to vote for him AGAIN.
Also research project 2025.
If trump wins, there will not be future elections.
Vote
I'm almost 70 and I guess that most of you are pretty young. All I can say is you all better damn well vote because you will be deciding the composition of SCOTUS for the next 50 years. Let that sink in.
Vote! Learn the lesson of 2016 and don't be over confident. Tell all your family and friends to vote. The more people that vote the higher the chance he doesn't get elected.
I dunno about other states, but in my hellhole of a state, I would estimate that 70-80% of (white) people are voting for Trump. They're well aware of all his bad behavior - they just don't care. To them, whatever Trump has done, "the libs" and "the Dems" are 100000000x worse because of what Faux News and Facebook Bob tell them.
So many Trump flags and upside down US flags outside of shacks and trailers in MO. Don't have a pot to piss in, but supporting a billionaire who hates poor people and wants to gut programs they rely on to survive.
It's that way for some white voters. Others have erroneously latched onto issues like inflation and gas prices, which Trump had no role in controlling.
More likely, he probably would've put pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates and send the economy into recession. But people don't get this.
The media underestimated 2 things: That not all R voters are MAGA-nuts, and for many people in that group a candidate being a convicted felon is a considerable issue.
Biden will win with either the same or slightly larger lead as last time.
Or throwing a coup. Brannon is out there planting seeds. Basically, if Trump loses its because Biden stole the election and we’ll need a civil war to fix it.
His followers don’t, but his associates do. That’s why Roger Stone has lawyers and judges on speed dial. They’re definitely planning to steal the election and they have had four years to sort out what they did wrong last time.
Oh, they have actually learned *a lot* from their mistakes. They're actually *more* dangerous this time around because they know where the guardrails are still standing and how to remove them.
When I read over there at r/conservative - I read he's sure win. When I am at r/politics (which might as well be r/liberal btw) - I read he's sliding.
Gawd knows who will win. But I am terrified of another Trump presidency. Much more than I am terrified of a potential Kamala Harris presidency.
Hope Biden wins and is able to carry on in his duties for next 4 years. That man should never really have had to run at such an old age but the extremists in both parties have lost their marbles and here we are.
20-30% of the population are complete and total morons. They are always hopeless and you just have to drag them along. Every study shows it. They believe in flat earth, ghosts, can’t read, and certainly can’t take in information and form reasonable opinions. The other 20% the GOP has a grasp on are evil hateful people or the just barely smarter than moron group. That’s all they got, a big ole basket of deplorables.
From the article:
"The race will likely continue to narrow, as is typical, by November," he said. "We can only hope that our news media begin to move away from the horse-race model of 'who is ahead' based on polls and models that have at best a mixed record of accuracy—and instead focus more on deeper analysis of the policy differences so that whatever choice the public makes is an informed one."
“Policy differences?” Trump has policies? I sure would like to hear them. Anyone know what they are?
TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED because
DEMOCRACY IS ON THE LINE:
*Donald Trump admires dictators.
*Donald Trump says he’ll be a dictator on day one.
*Donald Trump is racist,misogynistic, and homophobic. He also hates liberals/ democrats and Rinos( Republicans in name only).
*Donald Trump will strip women of their rights.
*Donald Trump wants to exact revenge on his enemies. This includes anyone who he feels has wronged him.
*Donald Trump will pardon and reward people who he perceives as loyal to him.
That includes January 6th prisoners who killed or injured Capitol police, trashed our sacred Capitol building, threatened lawmakers, trashed lawmakers officers.
*Donald Trump will get rid of the EPA and the department of education. Our health will be put at risk and indoctrination will replace exposure to science, history, various forms of literature and free thinking.
*Donald Trump will assign people loyal to him, not the Constitution, to high ranking government jobs.
*Donald Trump will stifle the free press and most likely jail his opponents without a trial- or after a bogus one.
*Donald Trump will pull the United States out of NATO and will take an isolationist approach ignoring the fact that we depend on our alliance with other countries for goods, services, and national security.
*Donald Trump will be friendly to the dictators of the world and wary of the leaders of our allied countries. Which will open up the possibility of dictators who want to take control of this country, to manipulate Trump and jeopardize our national security.
EVERYONE WHO’S VOTING BLUE must show up to the polls. Vote EARLY if possible.
💙🌊🇺🇸💙🌊🇺🇸💙
When the pandemic hit, Trump didn’t care because it was mostly hitting Blue states/cities.
Think about that . We brushed it off but if any other leader said anything like this they would be drummed out of office .. for Trump it was just another Tuesday.
The Electoral College continues to demonstrate how damaging it is to this republic. It came out of compromise based on assumptions that haven't been true in nearly 200 years and one of the concerns it was supposed to address was to prevent mob rule \*and\* to avoid a cult of personality forming around a demagogue. The fact that they've subverted the popular vote repeatedly and this model showing that the EC is set to do so again highlights just how flawed the assumptions were that lead to it's creation.
It has to go, for the good of the country.
Scrap the electoral college. The popular vote should be how our national elections are won. Minority rule doesn’t seem to working really well for our democracy.
This cretinous, lobotomized drone will never be potus again. I've got my coven meeting three times a week and we're casting spells to keep him out of the WH, and mired in his legal troubles until the cows come home.
And they ain't a-comin' home anytime soon, orange cheetohead.
If this dictator wins you can kiss your sweet life goodbye as you know it. He only wants to get himself out of the deep dodo he’s in with with the law & then get back at anyone he thinks hurt him unjustly. He’s a Looser. Watch him take a major tantrum & have a meltdown when he looses.
I can't understand how trump has any chance at all, much less his cult45 sycophants and their ferocious devotion to a criminal. He's a convicted felon which makes him ineligible to go to something like 43 countries. He can't get a security clearance as a convicted felon. Those are essential things for a president.
He's nothing but a bully and flagrant liar. I struggle with the absolute insanity of how this happened! Are Americans just stupid? Or is it that they love the drama of the "us against them" mob mentality? Trump has kicked a hornet's nest and his magats are frothing at the mouth with a win at all costs attitude. They are a bunch of mean spirited, gullible imbeciles. They have no idea that their demigod doesn't give a crap about them and wants nothing more than power and to stay out of prison. He can't even articulate a coherent thought. I am very afraid for the future. I feel like I am living in a real life Idiocracy.
I don't think he ever had a chance to begin with. He manipulates the polling just like everything else. He is a two time popular vote loser BEFORE he threw a coup and became a 34x felon. But you know the MAGA vote can't be swayed by indecency, they live in that galaxy. Get out and vote and flush the turd for good.
Newsweek is weak news, but if Trumps numbers drop and he gets jail time at his hearing, they better watch him like a hawk so no Epstein shit happens. I would rather see him as a live loser than a dead Martyr. With no VP having been chosen and the conspiracy wackos losing their shit I could see Mike Johnson getting the nomination at the convention and the Federalists backing him the whole way.
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Don’t listen to the noise on the right. Organise and Vote.
Even if you did listen to the noise, this article is talking about Trump’s chances sliding from 3/4 to 2/3 to win.
He had a 1/3 chance before 2016. To be clear, I think his chances of winning will actually be 'worse' this time, but that doesn't mean you presume anything. We 'must' do more than just "barely win". We must win as big as possible, work to hold the senate (not an easy task, but absolutely possible), flip the house, and do anything we can to fix the judiciary. We must organize and r/votedem. We cannot afford to slack off here whether or not Trump is vulnerable. Polling doom despair which creates apathy and its opposite end, overconfident complacency, works both ways, and can be a tool of the rich that gets manipulated in either direction, rather than the data science one claims it should be.
As somebody from a land down under, I can’t believe it’s even close. Trump is the most grotesque human being drawing breath. He shouldn’t have a whisper of a chance. Yet here we are. Nearly half of the USA will vote for a convicted felon, confirmed rapist, buffoonish coward who once took money from a kids cancer charity fund. WTF???
I agree. I'm Canadian and shocked. The fact that he even has people still supporting him in Congress and so on just shocks the hell out of me. These people are evil. Any educated person and most uneducated know he's an absolute fucking dangerous moron.
I'm American and I'm still shocked. I really thought we were better than this and am deeply disappointed.
Just like his lips are surgically attached to Putin’s asscheeks
Oh the irony that your export, Rupert Murdoch is the one that made this all possible. His network has been fostering hatred for Democrats for almost 30 years now, and they work tirelessly to normalize all things Trump to this day. They remain the #1 news network in the US with something insane like 35% of all news consumption. This is what makes everything else possible. I know FOX News junkies personally. Their brains have been re-written. It's depressing and infuriating.
Honestly, I truly question if it is. I don't think he has the advantages he had in 2016. I think the polls are not at all reliable this cycle in either direction and we're flying a lot more blind than people realize. Election trends themselves paint a 'much' bleaker picture for the GOP as a whole, so far... However, I stand by my original statement. It's foolish to ever get complacent, and we need a big win to deal with the real threat, [which is project 2025.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYwqpx6lp_s) Which does not even need Trump to implement if the GOP gets back in power without a humiliating defeat to make the party shift and change priorities. The simple truth is the GOP always wanted a full fascist takeover, but needed the SCOTUS to begin implementing their real agenda. Trump gave them what was needed, partially by design, partially by sheer dumb luck. 50 years of a seemingly more secular society fooled people into thinking those norms would be permanent, and by most reasonable accounts they would be, except for the fact that religious authoritarianism turns out to be a tool rich fascists to try and control the rest of us, which is much harder to stamp out when wealth concentration has gotten as bad and as globalized as it has in recent decades. We have a lot of reasons to be hopeful. The GOP's con is starting to become much more obvious to most people, but we are simultaneously also more vulnerable than ever. If we don't push back electorally now, there may well not be another chance. Replacing Trump will be extraordinarily difficult, and that's the one good thing about soundly defeating him we may have on our side.
Slacking off is what created the mess.
If we flip the House, Senate and take the WH, the right is going to have a serious meltdown. I imagine a lot of them ending up in prison.
The problem is the electoral college. He could conceivably lose by over 20 million votes or more and still win because of that BS.
Project 25 is more than just Trump. Get these clowns out of reach of public office!
Those odds just seem so off. Someone recently said “everyone on my social media is voting for Trump.” But on my social media…it’s a goddamned ghost town, let alone people going public this election with their voting intentions.
Yeah everyone in your social media is pretty homogenous. That's how the algorithms work. I look at one MMA video on Facebook and my feed turns really right wing really fast.
It's weird because I give the algo's plenty to work with, I'm online far too much. But if I accidentally click on one wrong short YouTube assumes I only want to see Chem trails and authoritarianism for like, 1-2 days.
Ain't that the truth. I was watching a video where they sourced a right wing commentator and I wanted a bit more context and hunted down the clip they used to watch the 15min video where they pulled a 50s clip from. Next thing I know I'm getting "LOL LIBERAL SOYBOY CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH" type videos plastering themselves across YouTube. They're almost all gone now, but for a few days it was whack. Alternatively I watched 1 Mario kart 8 speed run yesterday and now I have my feed full of "GO FROM PLAIN JOE TO PRO WITH THESE EASY MOVES" and I have to filter that out now too.
When stuff like this happens on YouTube, if you know the video that got YouTube thinking you now want right wing bs, you can go to your watch history and delete it (and any others in the same vein after that one). That should get you back to not seeing them.
Ok. As far as I understand this is how it works. People who watch that shit REALLY watch that shit and therefore it gets pushed harder. If I listen to an eminem song I'm not getting that stuff pushed. This tells me that people listening to one don't necessarily click on another. Therefore the algorytm doesn't push it that badly. I can go and listen to a few songs of artists without it taking over my recommended. But a person clicking right wing shit does click right wing shit, again, and again, and again.
Because people falling down rightwing rabbit holes consume videos constantly and drive ad revenue and aren't smart enough to enable ad blockers.
There's life outside of the internet, try talking to some real people. I have no political affiliation but many and I can't stress enough how many people are voting for Trump. Minorities especially. 2016 taught us to not take this shit for granted.
Yep, and it feels like real conversations might be able to impact to some extent, because many are not turning to Trump as a man with great ideas, but because they're frustrated. The political noise pushes people to blame whoever's in power for everything wrong in the world, while attempting to posture the opponent as a polar opposite, so their ideas must be good or potentially work better. It's appalling the number of people who harbor resentment and blame, but whose basis for those sentiments is not rooted in tangible evidence, but rather ecochambers promoting homogenized blame campaigns.
Most people aren’t terminally online and have goldfish memories, they aren’t constantly reminded how much of a shit show Trump was and will continue to be if reelected. The general sentiment from most people who don’t follow politics closely is that republicans are better when it comes to the economy, despite 30+ years of counter proof.
noise that makes you think trump cant win is noise helping the reps.
The issue is that this will come down to basically 6 percent of the population in 6battlegrounds, those being Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. Unless some drastic shift in either Florida or Texas happen and it flips for Biden, Trump is actually fucking favored to win. Our electoral system is fucked. Go out and vote, even if your state is deep blue. I’m in New Jersey and we are slight blue with a lot of republicans coming out recently. I will do my part to stopping it from even becoming close to a toss up
I really do not know what to think in terms of who has what chance to win. I feel like previous models just don't account for the current bizarre situation. At the same time, I don't want to fall into some kind of relaxed thinking that Trump's lead is just propaganda that can be ignored. I cannot stand how this absolute wreck of a political system is consuming more and more of our time and psychic energy with every cycle.
This sub is so misleading and echo chambery sometimes. It reminds me when Bernie vs Biden was a thing and Bernie was getting demolished/this sub made it seem like Bernie was doing great. These numbers are fucking terrifying. 538 has it as a toss up. Economist as a domination for Trump.
As an outsider (not American), this just seems insane. Trump has no platform, no policies, no vision, is now a convicted Felon, and has already lost to Biden once. The idea that he would dominate in this election seems unbelievable - and if it turns out to be accurate, is frankly embarrassing for the US.
And it's worth reminding that Trump isn't everything. Republicans need to be eliminated downballot everywhere.
Exactly this. No one should take this election lightly. The maga movement intends to do harm to our democracy and will if the rest of us fail to vote.
Definitely. Only a fool, like this headline, tries to predict the future. Most of us on this sub know their extremely dirty play style and every election season they've pushed that envelope further. Expect the worst and get as many to the polls as possible. In urban areas, bring grandpa's wheelchair, water, snacks and a battery pack for the phone. Camp out that shit.
The poll that matters is on election day. Hillary was on track to win until Comey did his thing.
Agreed. Don't care about these clickbait articles, polls, or opinion pieces. VOTE, VOTE, VOTE, VOTE, VOTE, VOTE.
I still find it utterly surreal that this conniving , traitorous grifter, the man who caused a violent attempt to overthrow the peaceful transition of power, is even being fucking considered. Seriously, WTF?
trump should be polling at <1%. In a healthy system, trump would have been behind bars well before he ever had a chance to run in 2016. This is all such a damning indictment of just how corrupt the system is and it's becoming more corrupt by the day.
We live in two very different media spheres. If Fox "Entertainment" News and all the other professional propagandists were required to be truthful in their storytelling we wouldn't be in this situation in the first place.
Correct! LONG, LONG gone are the days where fact checking and truth mattered. It was easy then to know what the “bogus news” was, as it was the Star or National Enquirer. Trump showed the world that you can say and do whatever the hell you want and suffer little, if any, consequences. Hell, Fox had to pay $700 million for doing that, but did it stop them? The fact that he’s relevant AT ALL today shows how utterly fucked up the GOP is. I’d be beyond embarrassed to say I’m a Republican today.
This all started during the Reagan administration when the [Fairness Doctrine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairness_doctrine) was repealed. Fox News was created shortly after. EDIT: Others have pointed out that the fairness doctrine didn't apply to cable, I guess it was coincidence that cable TV started taking off right after it was repealed. But I do believe it opened the door to being able to just make shit up.
Fairness doctrine repeal didn't directly give us Fox if I remember the law correctly. It did create right wing talk am radio. Basically, the FCC fairness doctrine was applied to OTA broadcast - because the airwaves are publicly owned and limited - so licenses to broadcast are supposed to serve public interest. Cable TV didn't really have to worry about this kind of thing either way. I guess the fairness doctrine repeal did help create the format and set the stage though.
The '96 Telecom bill really accelerated things, though, where large businesses could own more of the local stations... so you got things like the rise of Sinclair.
Give a billionaire a cookie, and he'll spend the rest of his life scheming to steal the rest of the cookies. Its pathological.
I fucking love learning.
Almost everything that was enacted from Reagan through Bush 2 was *extremely bad* even if it seemed like a good idea and progressive at the time, or just sort of "inside baseball" unimportant industry shit. If you ever wonder why something evil exists in the US, start with the Reagan admin and work forward. It's in there.
Proving you aren’t a Republican in the process
Definitely need a comprehensive 21st-century marketplace of ideas law that covers everything from social media to public broadcasting. The First Amendment should never be used as a defense of being willfully, profoundly untruthful or fraudulent. Problem is it wouldn’t pass in a million years and the corrupt court would strike it down before the ink was dry.
Although the Fairness Doctrine did not apply to cable, there's no reason why it couldn't have been expanded to include cable The argument a lot of people make is that broadcast channels were limited, whereas cable is not... but cable is pretty damn limited too. The other big problem is that ownership rules were loosened both by Republican presidents and by Bill Clinton, which is how you get Rush Limbaugh on every podunk AM station in the lower 48, huge newspaper chains, Sinclair owning lots of local TV stations, and so on. Put those two things together and you get a vast right wing propaganda sphere... and that's not even counting the increasingly corporate-controlled internet.
When I did political polling, it was a huge pain to get data on Republicans because they’d say they “didn’t belong to a political party” or “just follow the truth” or get offended we even asked. Then they’d take the survey and give near verbatim Fox News talking points for 20 minutes. We all knew that the more someone protested that they didn’t have a party or “didn’t get involved in politics” the further right their answers would be.
It’s the same folx that say “oh I never see color or race” gmafb
I agree with this 100 percent. I grew up in the Walter Cronkite era and later even Peter Jennings, Tom Brokaw, etc. where there were journalistic standards and ethics and the truth mattered. No “alternate facts” or spin.
I grew up with out 24 hr cable news that needed to fill content with opinion posing as news
Thing is, they still teach journalistic standards in college. Problem is the networks don’t want that. They want biased, entertainment writers
Odd that the "Entertainment" news channel's chosen candidate was a reality show entertainer
I've started to see a lot more speculative articles. When the media doesn't have have any new facts to report on they fill the space with speculation.
Lots of opinion pieces masquerading as news as well.
Reagan got rid of the FCC’s Fairness Doctrine, which allowed Fox and other “entertainment news” channels to broadcast alternate facts. The GOP decided that they needed their own TV network during Nixon’s administration. Republicans have been working the long game for decades and here we are.
> Reagan got rid of the FCC’s Fairness Doctrine, which allowed Fox and other “entertainment news” channels to broadcast alternate facts. The Fairness Doctrine only covered the airwaves because the FCC manages the broadcast spectrum. As soon as Cable TV became a thing it was obsolete. If you want to place blame appropriately, you need to look at [The Telecommunications Act of 1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunications_Act_of_1996). That's the legislation that allowed the massive media consolidation you see that allows Sinclair to buy local media stations and push a coordinated Republican Message. That's what gave Clear Channel the ability to snarf up all your local radio stations and replace them with garbage. That was the bill that allowed the telecoms to buy each other which eventually eliminated the variety of choice for ISPs and it was the bill that allowed banks to merge with no limit, creating the "Too Big to Fail" monstrosities.
My pet conspiracy theory is the “Dean Scream” controversy was ginned up by the media because Howard Dean wanted to repeal the Telecom Act. IIRC, he was the only candidate against it.
A "both sides" policy was also what led to the BBC giving so much airtime to Andrew Wakefield when he started spouting his anti MMR vaccine nonsense.
There should be a museum tour with this info that ends with pissing on Roger Ailes' grave.
That’s not actually what happened though. As television and radio took off, each station was granted a broadcast license that used radio spectrum from the public domain. Each station was actually being granted a little monopoly over a frequency, and that frequency was owned by the public, not the station. So in those early days, the notion that station licensees had a legal and moral obligation to serve the public’s interests were baked into station regulations. The problem isn’t that any politician or agency deregulated the broadcast industry. It’s that the spectrum mandate that justified some regulation over broadcasters does not apply to cable delivery. And thus cable ushered in an entirely new unregulated paradigm. The ability of the government to regulate content that I pay for to have privately delivered to my home is, and should be, pretty much non-existent. And, here we are.
Combined with a systematic undermining of education from only one side of the aisle for over 40 years, and many of the populace lack critical thinking skills. Not by mistake, but by design.
The media explains his elevation to the White House. The media does not explain how he managed to be a career criminal for decades without a criminal record and only ever having to pay civil fines for clear criminal activity. It shows how corrupting money is on not just our political system, but our judicial and criminal justice systems. It also shows how corporate personhood shields white collar criminals from personal responsibility for criminal activity - even if the corporate personhood is only a handful of people. It seems like the only time a white collar criminal faces consequences is if he defrauds a major corporation or other rich and connected people. Also, people have justification to be so angry at our political system they are willing to risk letting it burn, even willing to vote for someone who promises to be a dictator. At this point they don’t want policies they want punishment. They want retribution. And Trump is sociopathic enough to give them a list of groups and names to blame for everything, and he promised to be their retribution.
> At this point they don’t want policies they want punishment. They want retribution and Trump is sociopathic enough to give them a list of groups and names to blame for everything and promised to be their retribution. This is a recurring theme in human history. Life is complicated and messy. An opportunistic political movement can exploit that messiness by convincing a majority that the bumps and bruises of daily life are being caused by some identifiable minority. “We let black people have rights, and prices have gone up ever since. Ever notice that gas prices have gone up ever since we started letting women vote? We let gay people marry, and woman have reproductive rights, and now groceries are more expensive. When are we going to wake up and smell the roses and realize these people are destroying our country.” That paragraph sounds utterly absurd to many of us, but also resonates deeply with enough people that you can build a groundswell on it.
It is so bad that they would now lose viewers by telling the truth. Their audience is offended by the truth. Reality is a place they don’t want to live.
Maybe. It would certainly help but I have to believe many are willing ignorant. One has to willfully watch Fox and not know it’s disinformation.
Also how corrupt people are. I often ponder the likelihood that much of Trump's base supports him bc of their own history of sexuall assault, tax evasion, financial fraud, adultery, dishonesty, and violence. It must be a relief to find those things legitimized by a "leader."
And their own stupidity. When he speaks, we shake our heads in disbelief and laugh; his supporters say, "He sounds just like me!"
Or at the very least, "Hey, this guy doesn't talk down to me."
Except he does and they *still* eat it up
He tells it like it is: "I don't care about you. I just want your votes."
Didn’t he recently say something like “I don’t care about you just vote for me” at a rally? Lmao not trying to nitpick I just remembered how insane that was.
And don't forget the casual racism!
It's mostly this. Primarily against immigrants. The one common denominator that I've experienced with Trump supporters in my own life has been statements about the country being full, complaining about people getting benefits while they have to work, etc. I can usually shut them up for a few minutes by pointing out their hypocrisy (it's not like our family came over on the Mayflower) and what they'd have to have gone through to even get super temporary benefits, but minutes to days later, they're right back at it.
Aren't these the same people that talk about how the consequence of hell is the only reason people don't commit immoral acts?
Everyday the system lets thousands of mini trumps off the hook just for being rich.
And remember when boasting about how smart & strong you were would get you laughed out of a room? Every time that whiny doofus gets behind a podium he's like "I'm a big boy...I know big words" and because the Right has weaponized America's ignorance/hatred half the country eats it up.
Take heart: it’s way less than half, and always has been. Although there were indeed a lot of votes for him in the past, plenty of those were people holding their noses, not passionately in favor.
“You are the wolf you feed” plays here - if they support trump even begrudgingly, they’re just as ignorant/malicious as those who do so enthusiastically.
I don’t think there is begrudging support. If you are sitting at a dinner table with nine Nazis there are ten Nazis at the table.
In every conversation I actually sit down and have with republicans, I eventually get past all the bullshit talking points and they slip up and say "I just like that he hates liberals and my side is winning" Nothing actually matters the them except that they win and feel like the smart righteous side because of it
Seriously. I was recently in Florida for my high school reunion, and I saw a man, maybe 45 years old or so, at the park with his family wearing a t-shirt with a picture of Trump and the words "I **LOVE** TRUMP BECAUSE HE **PISSES OFF** THE PEOPLE I **CAN'T STAND**". What a sentiment.
Meanwhile the people he "can't stand" are fighting for things that will benefit him and greater society: affordable healthcare, affordable housing, livable wages, sustainable energy, etc.
But they'd have to share those things with black people, so they don't want anyone to have anything.
Seriously. [Register to vote](https://www.vote.org/) (vote.org) [How Voting Works - What to expect if you're voting for the first time](https://www.wikihow.com/Vote-in-the-United-States) (wikihow)
The footballification of politics has become too real. How often do you see fans openly cheer for a player on their team who has been convicted of Rape, Domestic Abuse, Sexual Assault, Drug related charges etc. A lot of fans and clubs DO NOT CARE so long as that player is wearing their colours.
Trump then brought pro wrestling into the mainstream of team sports politics. He is a WWE Hall of Famer after all. (Actually surprised he never brings that up)
He never brings up sports or sports entertainment. He’s a trust fund baby, utterly separate from the interests of normal people.
Is he though? Yeah, we have polls showing a close contest, but other streams of evidence don't appear to support that statement. His once-bigly rallies are now a side show His cult members are leaving in droves Independents have swung bigly towards the left Key minions and sycophants aside, we are starting to see shifts within the House and Senate In red Texas, I see maybe 1 MAGA hat a week, as opposed to the 20 or 30 a day years ago; also no signs and most of the bumper stickers I've seen are faded 70% of Americans are pro-marijuana and 63% think abortion should be legal; these are massive issues and Donald is on the opposing side There's also the felony conviction, rape, racism, and he is definitely succumbing to dementia. I despise the dude, but that is not a fun process and wouldn't wish it on anyone. I think many are taking note of the decline. TL;DR: Polls are just one piece
I want to believe you, but everything you're saying other than the stats about certain issues, which I'd contend seem to matter less and less these days, are anecdotal. What evidence have you seen that his "cult members are leaving in droves"?
The evidence is that Trump has consistently underperformed the polls since 2018. Even 2022, in which Congress was going to be flooded by a red wave, the GOP only barely managed to take control of the House. Don't just look at who wins a particular seat. Also pay attention to how much they won and how much they were expecting to win by. This is why the GOP is freaking out right now. If the numbers were healthy, they would be gloating about it
The red wave being more of a splash is certainly a positive sign, but Trump has also been polling really well depending on which polls you look at. The poll cited in this very article says despite his slide he still maintains a sizable advantage. Thinking the cult is leaving him "in droves" is reading far too much into some cherry picked evidence. This is a very unsafe assumption.
I'm still trying to comprehend how he got the nomination in 2016 if we're being honest. This guy was never taken seriously before.
I thought he was done when he insulted John McCain for being a PoW. Shows what I know.
There are SO many things he has done that should’ve been the end of his political career (John McCain comments, mocking disabled reporter, grab her by the p*ssy, multiple failed businesses, ‘look at my African-American’, insulting a gold star family, Central Park Five, mishandling the pandemic, saying for years that his big, beautiful healthcare plan would be ready in two weeks, trying to overthrow the government, everything he doesn’t win is ‘rigged’). It has become so common that it’s now normalized. I truly believe most people see right through his bullshit, as evidenced by him losing the popular vote twice, but it’s a vocal minority that always makes me wonder.
A lot of people are saying there might be Russian mafia ties in New York City going way back (Giuliani, Cohen). And that his first political forays were soon after being taken to Russia. The Russians hacked the DNC and released everything to the public, they hacked the RNC too and didn’t publish it but the party all swung behind him and all started to kiss his ass all the time.
The Republicans did it to themselves in 2016. Much like the Democrats did that year with Bernie, but on a much larger scale. Too many candidates stayed in too long. Had most dropped out and coalesced around one person against Trump- he wouldn’t have won the nomination. Rubio, and even Bush probably could’ve gotten the nomination in 2016. The fringe right (that mostly supports Trump today) had not yet started to show up in numbers for him. None of the current GOP players that support Trump did so in 2016. They all switched to become his lap dog after seeing how vocal his supporters started to become. Which yes, is in large part due to the propaganda machine of right wing media (and the Russian social media bots spreading misinformation). We literally had senators and congressional representatives who were so much against Trump that now worship the ground he walks on. Literal hero worship. That kind of hero worship is so extremely dangerous. Example: Germany, 1933-1945.
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No puppet, no puppet, you're the puppet!
Thanks electoral college. We are all beholden to the worse people and worse ideologies due to this archaic system where one’s votes can matter more than others. Makes no sense.
"B-b-but tyranny of the majority!" Because a tyranny of the minority is soooo much better.
People who yell about the "tyranny of the majority" don't understand the steps that the founding fathers took to try to prevent that from being a problem. They also don't understand that "We're a republic, not a democracy!" is propaganda meant to take power away from citizens. But really, they don't understand much of anything.
"Conniving, traitorous grifter"? Who can you mean? Surely not convicted on 34 counts felon, adjudicated rapist, wife beater, twice impeached, multiple bankruptee, and loser of the 2020 US Presidential Election Donald J. Trump? Him?
> I still find it utterly surreal that this conniving , traitorous grifter, the man who caused a violent attempt to overthrow the peaceful transition of power, is even being fucking considered. Seriously, WTF? Half of the US population is full blown idiots, just like every other place on Earth. A single person can be smart, but people in general are dumb as fuck.
Lot of rich motherfuckers who stand to gain who can also game the system, and also way too many dumb motherfuckers who don’t know a fucking thing about politics but love reality tv.
Not to mention that this felon should have been thrown in jail years ago if justice actually worked.
He was never planning on “winning” they ARE planning on stealing. As per Roger Stone, Bannon and Lara Trump. They are going to sue, cheat, steal and fix everything they can to draw this out and sabotage America.
I believe the technical term is 'ratfuck'.
Wow, [Donald Segretti](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Segretti) is still alive.
Well they sucked at that last time while they were actually in power... good luck I guess?
Bush Vs Gore was when the supreme court handed the election to Bush. Had they allowed the recount to proceed, Gore would have won. The GOP and Supreme Court already have form for this and it worked once before. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore
That was dependent on a spectacularly close election (EDIT: And..I'd argue - a Chief Justice that was going senile - Rhenquest wasn't in great health when he grabbed that case, it was seen in the moment as a clumsy bid for legacy). There is no evidence that another Biden/Trump matchup will create a close result in the electoral college. Biden beat Trump by the same EC margin Trump beat Clinton.
As if Biden isn’t anticipating that though?
What can Biden do about it? His job is to let the system play out the way it’s intended, and whoop trump’s ass at the polls. Beyond that, there’s no scheming to be done in the Biden camp.
They don't seem to be doing enough. You cant say Trump has not been successful in using his judges / the courts to his advantage? Gumming up and deflecting any real repercussions for his actions. Suing Fani Willis and delaying that case, The Supreme Court slow walking his immunity, Judge Eileen Cannon, you cant say they dont have the ability to cause significant damage, delays, distractions, repetitional damage. And, they could even steal the election. We have out and out rogue states that are making laws to prevent democracy. Not just the usual voter manipulation, dropping voter rolls, Gerrymandering. Out and out laws that say "we decide." This is not without risk and real damage.
You think Biden’s going to unveil his strategy publically?
I think you are right but you know you still have to vote
Well yea of course
He went from 75% chance of winning to 66%.... according to one model.
This should be the top comment. This is a dumb, meaningless article with a completely deceptive title. The comments are full of people saying “don’t believe it! Vote!” as if the article said that trump can’t win now. He’s still the clear favorite in the model they refer to.
It’s so boring and predictable. Every Newsweek article is that way. I don’t know why they haven’t blacklisted Newsweek. It’s not a legitimate news organization.
Newsweek headlines are just fully optimized for /r/politics at this point
At the top of this article for me was a link to another article from 3 days ago about how his chances have increased in 538’s model. They’re taking statistical noise and turning it into stupid clickbait. That said, I hope people on the left will understand that Trump doesn’t just have a chance at winning, he’s on track to win. The only way that changes is if enough people in swing states vote for Biden.
>That said, I hope people on the left will understand that Trump doesn’t just have a chance at winning, he’s on track to win Yeah man, people on this sub are really struggling to grapple with that fact. Most people here seem to think Trump has no chance and is going to lose in a landslide, in spite of there being literally no evidence of that at all. I saw a guy the other day saying there is "no math that gives Trump a victory" and I'm like... no math?? When he's currently ahead in every swing state? I've seen others say that they think Texas and Florida are going to flip blue and others say that we're likely to see the biggest Democratic landslide since 1932. When I ask people why they think this in spite of all evidence pointing in the other direction, it's pretty much just their gut saying so
it's also a newsweek article. and therefore trash
Don't believe any poll anywhere, at any time. Just get out and vote against the greatest threat to American democracy in our lifetimes. Remember, Putin isn't resting in his Irregular Warfare where he's using proxies, yes you Republicans and MAGA cultists to defeat America. Add in the countless billions of dollars that are being spent by the nation's richest people and other interested parties overseas, and we are very close to losing our American democracy.
I agree and can't wait until the Rapist Fascist Felon X34 with 57 pending, is not in our faces every damn day. I don't know how the stupid cult listens to this moron. He always sounds so fucking stupid. Just a lying sack of vomit
Rapist Fascist Felon *Doe 174*, to be exact.
This far in advance, polls mean jack fucking all, and we are increasingly running into things where methodology matters, and matters a lot. I generally trust Nate Silver’s analysis, but that’s not “polling” in the traditional sense. And it’s accurate largely in a way that requires one to understand how statistics work, looking at odds of winning, not how the 100 people they got to pick up a phone are likely to vote.
Another challenge is finding an *authentic* random sampling of the population. Many polls are done via text/mobile. Who the hell picks up the phone or replies to a strange phone number? A good number of people view unsolicited contact as intrusive. Others may immediately dismiss it as either spam or a scam. Meanwhile, some demographics are more susceptible/eager to respond to these solicitations. Others have mistrust in institutions. Some may be eager beavers and will give their opinion to anybody who will listen. Factor in polls conducted by landline. Who owns a landline phone anymore? You might receive a number of seniors or rural individuals. That might be fine and dandy if that's your targeted audience. Perhaps online panels. There's a problem with those, though. Weigh the concerns with the survey link expiration. A lot of polling wants to be fast, which sacrifices accuracy. Individuals who sign up for online panels may have life obligations, preventing them from providing an immediate response. This could be anything from employment/school, a *second* job, family, errands, etc. A day or two go by and you finally get around to it. Except now, the invite has expired and the survey is closed. Even short attention spans. "*Ehh... I just got this email. I'll respond later*." Again, the survey is no longer accepting responses. Political attitudes and voter trends will be very difficult to measure based on methodology, especially in this digital age. Then you have terms of "likely voters" versus "registered voters". Individuals answering these polls may be *likely* voters, but also should not infer they \*will\* vote in the primaries or election day. While more people may have voted in 2020, actual turnout was somewhat abysmal at ~66%. Whether you're chronically online or belong to an under-served demographic with limited/no online access, it may be an uphill battle to reach individuals for their opinions. The sampling becomes less and less random. Toss in methodology of how the questions were asked, the wording, results interpretation, bias for who the poll is being conducted for (e.g. specific new network, party, et al.), and a slew of other problems. Data quality. Also remember, the [polling numbers in 2020 contained the highest level of error since 19**80**](https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/13/politics/2020-polling-error-research/index.html). And this was \*after\* poll predictors were adamant resolving the discrepancies from the 2016 election cycle. These pollsters still have a lot of work to do.
I remember clutching my pearls as the possibility of Clinton getting a BJ was the most horrendous thing a president ever did. I love how Republicans will say stuff like Jack Black is an actor and he needs to shut up and act. This from the party that elected Arnold, Reagan and Trump.
the propaganda from the right is going to be cranked to 11 in the coming months. if you think its bad now, just wait until we're a month away from election and they're backed into a corner. all their projections about 'false flag' operations are going to come true as the dirtiest tricks used to sway a people are used.
Get used to a shitton of AI generated garbage showing trump hanging out with his homies and Biden groping a child.
I don't believe it. VOTE!
Volunteer to get the vote out. If you have the chance to spend a couple of months doing something much more meaningful than joining the army to kill someone, then do it.
Everybody is going to vote. Everybody knows that this is basically Armageddon for the US. The fate of the country has never rested on an election like it does in November. I don't think it is an overstatement to say that the only more fateful event since the founding was the Civil War.
That time [Nixon sabotaged peace talks](https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/06/nixon-vietnam-candidate-conspired-with-foreign-power-win-election-215461/) because he knew he'd get more votes if the Vietnam war was still raging... that's got to be up there.
Reagan and Republicans very likely negotiated with Iran to retain hostages until after the election as well. It's almost like the GOP is a group of really bad people...
Same thing today, the GOP are the ones unanimously pushing for more military aid to Israel, but they're perfectly content with letting people believe that the Palestinian deaths are on Biden. Literally fueling their campaign with Palestinian blood.
And that's not even the half of it. The invasion of Ukraine was timed for a reason. Putin has long had plans for that, and it would have been much more convenient for him had his little buddy won reelection in 2020/succeeded in his coup attempt in 2021. Saudi Arabia has leveraged its control to keep gas prices high. Corporations have been gouging prices and hiding behind the inflation excuse the whole way. Some of it is greed, but a lot of it is aimed at helping Trump/Republicans get back into power.
Once a terrorist; always a terrorist
The fact he has any supporters blows my mind, these are the biggest morons in the country and it's not close.
When they do focus groups, people talk about inflation and gas prices. It's absurd because neither have much to do with who's president. But that's how a lot of people vote. And the age issue. Even though Trump is just a few years younger, he projects more energy and vigor. People ignore the nonsensical things he's saying that indicate age. It's all absurd but this is what seems to be going on.
Their numbers are staggering though and not to be underestimated.
Vote. Remember 2016? I remember the same things being said. Just vote.
The article still says Trump is favored. Of course we need to vote lol
Not just favored, heavily favored with, according to the economist, a 66% chance at winning down from 75%. Pretty sure both that publication and newsweek are garbage. Still doesn’t change the fact that people need to vote.
Why are so many people in this thread acting as if the article is saying Trump's campaign is dead? It's saying he's still in the lead.
I don't believe anything that comes out from newsweek anymore. This is by far the worst source of information full of click baits and for some reason the mods here are fine with it.
Vote like your life depends on it. Regardless.
Just remember, they’re planning Reichstag. Vote blue.
They’re planning Gilead.
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From a 100% service-connected disabled combat veteran. Please VOTE BLUE and suffer the awkwardness of asking others to do so as well.
Their plan is not to win. It is to create chaos. A hundred thousand poll watchers, each reporting or concocting every "fishy" thing they saw, or every way they were barred from "fairly" monitoring the election. Followed by frivolous lawsuits in all of the swing states, anywhere they can raise a question. Republicans in Congress will give this "legitimacy" by going to media and by declaring on the House and Senate floors that there needs to be an investigation. The suits will get to the SCOTUS, who will toss it to the House to decide. They will do a state by state vote. Republicans have more states in Congress, so they will vote Trump and he will win. That's their plan. They don't have to win. They have to put on a really big show. The best hope we have is to not have close votes in swing states. I don't know how to make that clear and urgent enough to the people in these states, but that's what needs to happen.
Yes, and I’ll add - make sure you know your state’s poll watching laws. Do not let these fuckwads break the law. Report anything you find suspicious.
I still can’t believe that there’s genuine people out there across the pond that idolise this man.. the fact that people drive around with their political beliefs plastered all over their car is a surreal thing to see for us Brits.
For us too, at least the sane ones.
ive seen a concerning amount of news with headlines like “trump numbers are down and he wont win election” theyre trying to trick us to not vote because they want us to think were in the clear and he wont win no matter what. GO VOTE dont listen to these headlines this is their tactic to keep people from voting that think everything is under control.
Anyone who votes for that asshole is an asshole themselves at this point. We know enough
Hey anti Biden progressives who don’t want to vote for him because of Israels genocide. Vote for Biden, Trump stated he will help Netanyahu finish the job completely. Kushner said the West Bank will be developed for luxury condos. I’m an anti Biden progressive and I’m going to vote for him AGAIN. Also research project 2025. If trump wins, there will not be future elections. Vote
I'm almost 70 and I guess that most of you are pretty young. All I can say is you all better damn well vote because you will be deciding the composition of SCOTUS for the next 50 years. Let that sink in.
Vote! Learn the lesson of 2016 and don't be over confident. Tell all your family and friends to vote. The more people that vote the higher the chance he doesn't get elected.
I dunno about other states, but in my hellhole of a state, I would estimate that 70-80% of (white) people are voting for Trump. They're well aware of all his bad behavior - they just don't care. To them, whatever Trump has done, "the libs" and "the Dems" are 100000000x worse because of what Faux News and Facebook Bob tell them.
So many Trump flags and upside down US flags outside of shacks and trailers in MO. Don't have a pot to piss in, but supporting a billionaire who hates poor people and wants to gut programs they rely on to survive.
It's that way for some white voters. Others have erroneously latched onto issues like inflation and gas prices, which Trump had no role in controlling. More likely, he probably would've put pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates and send the economy into recession. But people don't get this.
The media underestimated 2 things: That not all R voters are MAGA-nuts, and for many people in that group a candidate being a convicted felon is a considerable issue. Biden will win with either the same or slightly larger lead as last time.
Trump isn't counting on winning. He's counting on stealing the elections.
Or throwing a coup. Brannon is out there planting seeds. Basically, if Trump loses its because Biden stole the election and we’ll need a civil war to fix it.
well that didn't go so well last time, and his people don't come across as the types that learn from their mistakes.
His followers don’t, but his associates do. That’s why Roger Stone has lawyers and judges on speed dial. They’re definitely planning to steal the election and they have had four years to sort out what they did wrong last time.
Oh, they have actually learned *a lot* from their mistakes. They're actually *more* dangerous this time around because they know where the guardrails are still standing and how to remove them.
They will always figure out new ways to lie, cheat, and steal.
Trump's plan isn't to win. It is to steal.
Vote like the future of our democracy depends on it
When I read over there at r/conservative - I read he's sure win. When I am at r/politics (which might as well be r/liberal btw) - I read he's sliding. Gawd knows who will win. But I am terrified of another Trump presidency. Much more than I am terrified of a potential Kamala Harris presidency. Hope Biden wins and is able to carry on in his duties for next 4 years. That man should never really have had to run at such an old age but the extremists in both parties have lost their marbles and here we are.
I’m done with Newsweek articles. They are so full of ads it locks the Reddit app.
Don’t care. Fascism is on the ballot. Vote.
20-30% of the population are complete and total morons. They are always hopeless and you just have to drag them along. Every study shows it. They believe in flat earth, ghosts, can’t read, and certainly can’t take in information and form reasonable opinions. The other 20% the GOP has a grasp on are evil hateful people or the just barely smarter than moron group. That’s all they got, a big ole basket of deplorables.
From the article: "The race will likely continue to narrow, as is typical, by November," he said. "We can only hope that our news media begin to move away from the horse-race model of 'who is ahead' based on polls and models that have at best a mixed record of accuracy—and instead focus more on deeper analysis of the policy differences so that whatever choice the public makes is an informed one." “Policy differences?” Trump has policies? I sure would like to hear them. Anyone know what they are?
TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED because DEMOCRACY IS ON THE LINE: *Donald Trump admires dictators. *Donald Trump says he’ll be a dictator on day one. *Donald Trump is racist,misogynistic, and homophobic. He also hates liberals/ democrats and Rinos( Republicans in name only). *Donald Trump will strip women of their rights. *Donald Trump wants to exact revenge on his enemies. This includes anyone who he feels has wronged him. *Donald Trump will pardon and reward people who he perceives as loyal to him. That includes January 6th prisoners who killed or injured Capitol police, trashed our sacred Capitol building, threatened lawmakers, trashed lawmakers officers. *Donald Trump will get rid of the EPA and the department of education. Our health will be put at risk and indoctrination will replace exposure to science, history, various forms of literature and free thinking. *Donald Trump will assign people loyal to him, not the Constitution, to high ranking government jobs. *Donald Trump will stifle the free press and most likely jail his opponents without a trial- or after a bogus one. *Donald Trump will pull the United States out of NATO and will take an isolationist approach ignoring the fact that we depend on our alliance with other countries for goods, services, and national security. *Donald Trump will be friendly to the dictators of the world and wary of the leaders of our allied countries. Which will open up the possibility of dictators who want to take control of this country, to manipulate Trump and jeopardize our national security. EVERYONE WHO’S VOTING BLUE must show up to the polls. Vote EARLY if possible. 💙🌊🇺🇸💙🌊🇺🇸💙
Cool. So this d bag went from 75% chance of winning to 66%? What the fuck is wrong with people?
They want you complacent and a repeat of 2016. Vote! https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote
I'll believe it on Nov 6 if the headlines say he lost. And even still we'll have months & years of legal and other BS trying to overturn the election.
When the pandemic hit, Trump didn’t care because it was mostly hitting Blue states/cities. Think about that . We brushed it off but if any other leader said anything like this they would be drummed out of office .. for Trump it was just another Tuesday.
Cool. Whatever. Go vote.
The Electoral College continues to demonstrate how damaging it is to this republic. It came out of compromise based on assumptions that haven't been true in nearly 200 years and one of the concerns it was supposed to address was to prevent mob rule \*and\* to avoid a cult of personality forming around a demagogue. The fact that they've subverted the popular vote repeatedly and this model showing that the EC is set to do so again highlights just how flawed the assumptions were that lead to it's creation. It has to go, for the good of the country.
Doesn’t mean anything. Go vote.
Don't be fooled. Get out and vote like the future of the free world depends on it
Scrap the electoral college. The popular vote should be how our national elections are won. Minority rule doesn’t seem to working really well for our democracy.
As long as you don’t vote for trump, humanity loves you.
This cretinous, lobotomized drone will never be potus again. I've got my coven meeting three times a week and we're casting spells to keep him out of the WH, and mired in his legal troubles until the cows come home. And they ain't a-comin' home anytime soon, orange cheetohead.
If this dictator wins you can kiss your sweet life goodbye as you know it. He only wants to get himself out of the deep dodo he’s in with with the law & then get back at anyone he thinks hurt him unjustly. He’s a Looser. Watch him take a major tantrum & have a meltdown when he looses.
I can't understand how trump has any chance at all, much less his cult45 sycophants and their ferocious devotion to a criminal. He's a convicted felon which makes him ineligible to go to something like 43 countries. He can't get a security clearance as a convicted felon. Those are essential things for a president. He's nothing but a bully and flagrant liar. I struggle with the absolute insanity of how this happened! Are Americans just stupid? Or is it that they love the drama of the "us against them" mob mentality? Trump has kicked a hornet's nest and his magats are frothing at the mouth with a win at all costs attitude. They are a bunch of mean spirited, gullible imbeciles. They have no idea that their demigod doesn't give a crap about them and wants nothing more than power and to stay out of prison. He can't even articulate a coherent thought. I am very afraid for the future. I feel like I am living in a real life Idiocracy.
Get out and vote!! Or this will be our last election, where we can.
I don't think he ever had a chance to begin with. He manipulates the polling just like everything else. He is a two time popular vote loser BEFORE he threw a coup and became a 34x felon. But you know the MAGA vote can't be swayed by indecency, they live in that galaxy. Get out and vote and flush the turd for good.
I seem to recall them saying after 2022 losses that they were done w/Trump and needed to find another voice. Yet here they are.
Newsweek is weak news, but if Trumps numbers drop and he gets jail time at his hearing, they better watch him like a hawk so no Epstein shit happens. I would rather see him as a live loser than a dead Martyr. With no VP having been chosen and the conspiracy wackos losing their shit I could see Mike Johnson getting the nomination at the convention and the Federalists backing him the whole way.
He needs to grope Ivanka to get his strength back up
VOTE! Polls are always wrong.