as far as I can remember I've never heard George talk about pages but only months, POVs, chapters, dates, years, I think that's his best way to say he's running out.
I also warn people who have not understood how Martin writes that the missing pages could be the first of the book
practically yes, he never used these terms, but it is also true that the chapter on the red wedding (Cat , asos ) was written 6 months after the rest of the book, so by now we know what kind of writer we are waiting for, so let's meet fingers and that's it!
Martin usually talks in manuscript pages so I think it's good. 500 manuscript pages might be 300 published pages, and the fact he's giving more specific estimates suggests he finally has an idea of how to actually get there.
There's part of me that thinks all of the progress updates on Winds in the last year have been to cynically drive interest for his other works, or perhaps he genuinely has found some motivation.
Yep, he’s referring to manuscript pages. In the interview he mentions he has 1100-1200 pages done
For comparison, the first draft of Dance was just over 1600 pages and got to 1510 when it was sent to the publishers.
So this is all right on track with his prediction that I’ll be his longest book and also his prediction from a month or two ago that he was roughly 3/4 done.
I think this is the takeaway from me, he knows where he's going and how to get there . A lot of these pages could well be roughed out so I'm actually really excited here.
Shortest book in the series. All my copies are just shy of 1,000 though for what it's worth. My illustrated edition is the shortest at about 850 without counting the appendix etc.
Shortest book but largest one by itself in my case. Since every other book is in two volumes they are individually smaller. But GoT is one huge volume.
I agree with a lot of what you say, but if he were just cynically looking for hype surely he could get some writing assistants to do the grunt work and get those 300 pages out in 6 months?
When he had ~500 pages left of ADwD, he sped up and finished it in a year and a half.
https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2011/05/19/talking-about-the-dance/
It's good that he still respects us enough to give us updates. Alot of authors don't. But it's also not exactly bad, just should be taken with a grain of salt. It could take him 5 years to write those words.
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Well he says he has 1100+ pages, and needs 400+ more. It took us 11 years to get here, so roughly 100 pages/year, so 4 more years. That's of course assuming this means pages of new material and that 1100 doesn't count the scrapped material from the end of Dance. In which case his rate is slower.
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I wonder if the experience with COVID changed the direction he was going to take the greyscale and pale mare outbreaks. It's hard to imagine that living through a global pandemic would not affect how he writes the mass outbreak of disease in the book.
I genuinely don't wanna read about it though, George loves history and a black plague esq event may have been on the cards always.
I personally am just done with discussing/thinking about the pandemic and just want my fantasy book. Not saying it wouldn't be good or that he shouldn't do it but just for my own personal sanity and enjoyment I wish it doesn't go in that direction.
I'm with you, I really don't want TWOW to become a reenactment of 2020 set in Westeros. I'm not trying to suggest that all of a sudden those plotlines, though, will turn into a total allegory for COVID. Even before COVID we could only speculate on where these storylines would go so it's impossible to say what may happen now. I just can't imagine that a worldwide event like COVID wouldn't have some kind of an effect, whether huge or tiny, on the way GRRM writes about the growing danger of highly contagious and dangerous diseases in the book.
I'm not trying to predict anything, just recognizing that something, large or small, will probably change. Maybe GRRM’s wary of TWOW being read as a commentary on COVID and is trying to minimize the role of greyscale and the pale mare; conversely, maybe after the experience of the pandemic he wanted to make them more prominent. Also, I could see that it has basically no effect on the plot and he just tweaked the way people talk about the diseases or how people deal with it in the background. Finally, maybe those were never going to become major plot points anyway and he doesn't have to do or change much.
We got "I wrote hundreds and hundreds of pages in 2020"
That does not equal 250, I'd say thats 400 pages in 2020.
On the r/pureasoiaf discord we're very optimistic for 2024. (Some of us for 2023)
Being positive? I’d say 2+ years to write, longer to edit and publish. 2025 release date.
Being realistic? 8 years would be my best guess.
Being as negative as my first prediction was positive? He dies 35 years from now without TWoW being publishing.
My guess 2-4 years sounds about right. If he needs 500 more pages and he’s about 3/4 done I think he could have to book finished by 2026 at the LATEST (hopefully, with George we never know)
The fact that he is so accurate about his progress and gives precise page counts is, in my opinion, a good sign. Until recently, a typical update was just "Yes, yes I'm working on it".
If 400-500 manuscript pages is 225-300 published pages, then that's the equivalent of 15-20 chapters.
When I think of it that way, it really doesn't sound too bad.
Something is better than nothing my friend.
In this case I'm happy to hope that we can get winds in 2025 instead of just speculating in agony with no probable date in mind.
Also, since he's finished certain characters, those chapters are probably the same characters. I imagine writing two Tyrion chapters is easier than a Jaime and a Cersei (as examples).
I think a big problem for GRRM has been to figure out a good way to get the story toward the end he thought of. The writing by itself is not something he struggles with a lot, but the small-ish decisions like how to best make character A do something that makes character B do something else that leads to the end GRRM figured out, that’s difficult.
400 pages sounds like a lot, but it can be done very quickly if you already know how things are supposed to go.
If you still have to figure stuff out 400 pages is a LOT. Then we’re talking another five years at least, optimistically I could see the earliest release date being fall 2024.
I think he has said that we will probably have two volumes because the book will be too big, but it would not be like AFFC and ADWD, I have read other people who have said that in their countries ASOS and ADWD was published in two volumes, I think that will happen with TWOW, that book will be bigger than ASOS.
I actually think he's just been pressed to give an unrealistic deadline too early on, possibly he hadn't written anything else than the sample chapters at the time.
When the deadlines passed, and the years after the deadline passed too, he probably started to find it increasingly difficult to justify the actual completion of the books, so he's just stalling
Also, he probably has a very unrealistic view of his own motivation (takes one to know one)
In one of his updates a few months back he mentioned something about how the publisher would need to decide whether to split it into multiple physical books for release or not.
I’m pretty sure he’s said that Winds and Dream will be the longest books of the series so yeah that sounds about right. Also to be fair 2000 manuscript pages isn’t 2000 published pages
Well, for one, he said himself multiple times TWoW would be the longest book in the series, so yeah maybe.
Though, he's talking manuscript pages. I don't exactly understand what it means, my guess would be the editor trims part of the books once Martin has finished writing it
I'll take literally anything at this point. George could say he farted during the completion of a TWOW page and I'd be like, "TWOW IS COMING BOYS LET'S GOOOO"
That's an insane number if you look at other books, hell some of my history books are smaller than that lol.
Just to make it clear, I'm betting this book is gonna be fucking massive considering his other books in the series were either 700+,900+, or DWD which was 1000. This book is gonna be great when it comes out
I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe
I feel like these pages will be written quicker than the rest since the big hurdle was figuring out a lot of the plot points and now he just needs to wrap up the story.
Lmao at all the hopeful comments here. If I had a nickel for every time I read, "I'll take that as a good sign"...
It all sounds great until he decides to chuck out 700 pages and redo it...
Many people are misunderstanding the news, it does not mean that George has only written 400 or 500 pages, but that he has 400 or 500 pages left to finish.
In the absence of new material in the main story, I find him one of the most enjoyable ways to engage with it.
Like yeah he gets super tinfoil-y but that's part of the fun.
And when he dives into the thematic elements of the story, like his series on Brienne or his TWOW sample chapter analyses, he can be downright riveting.
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On average sure but realistically it was nothing until the pandamic where he wrote ~800 pages (plus the 300 or so leftover gives us the 1100 he has done now). He probably spent the first year or so taking a break, then he consulted on (and wrote a lot of the early) game of thrones, wrote the dunk and egg novelas, fire and blood, worked on elden ring, all while travelling to conventions and events.
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I mean, his books average a 1000 pages in the regular trade paperback, so he’s half way done with it? That’s not a good thing. But at least he has a framework and plan if he knows the page count? No surprises then?
Winds is going to be about 1500 pages or so we've been led to believe. And it does seem like he's had a productive few months on the book, he's talked about being near to wrapping up character arcs on his blog. It's a pity that he's going to rewrite some of it, but if he's at 500 pages left I'd call that the home stretch. Release date December 2029
> I mean, his books average a 1000 pages in the regular trade paperback, so he’s half way done with it?
No? How did you arrive at this math? He flat-out says he has 1100 pages completed.
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At this point, I couldn't give a fuck about winds of winter. He needs to finish dream of spring to get me interested. That way the series is done, rather than in this weird middle ground limbo.
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as far as I can remember I've never heard George talk about pages but only months, POVs, chapters, dates, years, I think that's his best way to say he's running out. I also warn people who have not understood how Martin writes that the missing pages could be the first of the book
Are you saying he is almost done?
practically yes, he never used these terms, but it is also true that the chapter on the red wedding (Cat , asos ) was written 6 months after the rest of the book, so by now we know what kind of writer we are waiting for, so let's meet fingers and that's it!
Oh yeah. Fully believe the last bits are the ones that have been giving him the most grief
Is this Good or Bad or Both?
Martin usually talks in manuscript pages so I think it's good. 500 manuscript pages might be 300 published pages, and the fact he's giving more specific estimates suggests he finally has an idea of how to actually get there. There's part of me that thinks all of the progress updates on Winds in the last year have been to cynically drive interest for his other works, or perhaps he genuinely has found some motivation.
Yep, he’s referring to manuscript pages. In the interview he mentions he has 1100-1200 pages done For comparison, the first draft of Dance was just over 1600 pages and got to 1510 when it was sent to the publishers. So this is all right on track with his prediction that I’ll be his longest book and also his prediction from a month or two ago that he was roughly 3/4 done.
I think this is the takeaway from me, he knows where he's going and how to get there . A lot of these pages could well be roughed out so I'm actually really excited here.
A Game of Thrones was 694 published pages. What the hell George?
Shortest book in the series. All my copies are just shy of 1,000 though for what it's worth. My illustrated edition is the shortest at about 850 without counting the appendix etc.
Shortest book but largest one by itself in my case. Since every other book is in two volumes they are individually smaller. But GoT is one huge volume.
ACOK isn't in two parts. Or at least mine isn't.
I agree with a lot of what you say, but if he were just cynically looking for hype surely he could get some writing assistants to do the grunt work and get those 300 pages out in 6 months?
When he had ~500 pages left of ADwD, he sped up and finished it in a year and a half. https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2011/05/19/talking-about-the-dance/
Perfect. That's about how much time I need to reread the series up until now.
i think it's good if only because he's talking about page count instead of wishy washy percentage estimates.
It's good that he still respects us enough to give us updates. Alot of authors don't. But it's also not exactly bad, just should be taken with a grain of salt. It could take him 5 years to write those words.
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I'm not saying it definitely will take that long. Just that anything is possible.
Also George probably didn’t write more than 50-100 pages between 2011 and 2020. Meaning most of them has come since then.
He probably wrote more, but the only pages he kept/was satisfied with were on that level.
So only another 50 years until the book is finished, then
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Nothing. Respect isn't a currency, it's an acknowledgment of gratitude.
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I mean it seems to be exactly what we expected he said he was 3/4ths of the way done like a month ago.
Nothing short of "finished" is good at this point. It's been too long and too many broken promises otherwise.
Idk, he's finished some characters. I feel like at that point, that's substantial progress which helps guide the rest.
Well he says he has 1100+ pages, and needs 400+ more. It took us 11 years to get here, so roughly 100 pages/year, so 4 more years. That's of course assuming this means pages of new material and that 1100 doesn't count the scrapped material from the end of Dance. In which case his rate is slower.
The 1100 counts scrapped material from Dance as well
Oh cool, less than 1/3 a page per day over the last 11 years.....
Honestly, I think that he might have actually started writing new pages that weren’t from Dance in 2019.
It'll be another decade
Pretty bad imo, he is an under-estimator, not over-estimator. Those 500 could grow to be 4 novels
Its bad that he has that many pages left, but its good that…. No. No, its bad.. its all bad.
It's terrible. That means he's like half done. It's been over 10 fucking years.
Far, far beyond half done.
1100 manuscript pages in 11 years yippee
Honestly I'm growing more convinced that Preston's theory that he didn't actually start working on it properly until 2019 is true.
Same here. Denounced it at first but now I’m like…wait a minute
Link?
3/4 done actually
Depends on your book size. My books have been over 1000 pages.
yes.
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And being positive, how long will it take to write all those pages?
Optimistically, 12-18 months. Realistically, more like 2 years. Based on this update I think winter of 24-25 is a good guess for a release
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I wonder if the experience with COVID changed the direction he was going to take the greyscale and pale mare outbreaks. It's hard to imagine that living through a global pandemic would not affect how he writes the mass outbreak of disease in the book.
I genuinely don't wanna read about it though, George loves history and a black plague esq event may have been on the cards always. I personally am just done with discussing/thinking about the pandemic and just want my fantasy book. Not saying it wouldn't be good or that he shouldn't do it but just for my own personal sanity and enjoyment I wish it doesn't go in that direction.
I'm with you, I really don't want TWOW to become a reenactment of 2020 set in Westeros. I'm not trying to suggest that all of a sudden those plotlines, though, will turn into a total allegory for COVID. Even before COVID we could only speculate on where these storylines would go so it's impossible to say what may happen now. I just can't imagine that a worldwide event like COVID wouldn't have some kind of an effect, whether huge or tiny, on the way GRRM writes about the growing danger of highly contagious and dangerous diseases in the book. I'm not trying to predict anything, just recognizing that something, large or small, will probably change. Maybe GRRM’s wary of TWOW being read as a commentary on COVID and is trying to minimize the role of greyscale and the pale mare; conversely, maybe after the experience of the pandemic he wanted to make them more prominent. Also, I could see that it has basically no effect on the plot and he just tweaked the way people talk about the diseases or how people deal with it in the background. Finally, maybe those were never going to become major plot points anyway and he doesn't have to do or change much.
We got "I wrote hundreds and hundreds of pages in 2020" That does not equal 250, I'd say thats 400 pages in 2020. On the r/pureasoiaf discord we're very optimistic for 2024. (Some of us for 2023)
I want to cry
Being positive? I’d say 2+ years to write, longer to edit and publish. 2025 release date. Being realistic? 8 years would be my best guess. Being as negative as my first prediction was positive? He dies 35 years from now without TWoW being publishing.
I doubt George is making it to 109 years old. More seriously, I could see him finishing in 2024 and the book then being released in early 2025.
I for one could not.
8 years hahahaha we are never getting this book
Another 1.5 years to write, 6 months for editing, marketing and printing.
My guess 2-4 years sounds about right. If he needs 500 more pages and he’s about 3/4 done I think he could have to book finished by 2026 at the LATEST (hopefully, with George we never know)
The fact that he is so accurate about his progress and gives precise page counts is, in my opinion, a good sign. Until recently, a typical update was just "Yes, yes I'm working on it".
If 400-500 manuscript pages is 225-300 published pages, then that's the equivalent of 15-20 chapters. When I think of it that way, it really doesn't sound too bad.
It's on now. Winds is coming in mid 2025 /s. Seriously it might be true
Bruh that’s 3 years the fuck
I know right, 3 years is pretty conservative
Something is better than nothing my friend. In this case I'm happy to hope that we can get winds in 2025 instead of just speculating in agony with no probable date in mind.
Also, since he's finished certain characters, those chapters are probably the same characters. I imagine writing two Tyrion chapters is easier than a Jaime and a Cersei (as examples).
I agree. Concrete numbers is a very good thing and combined with the amount of good updates recently I have some hope it’s only a few years away
I think a big problem for GRRM has been to figure out a good way to get the story toward the end he thought of. The writing by itself is not something he struggles with a lot, but the small-ish decisions like how to best make character A do something that makes character B do something else that leads to the end GRRM figured out, that’s difficult. 400 pages sounds like a lot, but it can be done very quickly if you already know how things are supposed to go. If you still have to figure stuff out 400 pages is a LOT. Then we’re talking another five years at least, optimistically I could see the earliest release date being fall 2024.
i think that maybe, hopefully, by having done most of the rest of the book, he's figured this out. 2024 seems realistic
Wasn't he like 75% done a few months ago? Is he writing a 2000 page long book?
Honestly I think he is
It would be funny if finally we got the next two books... but it ends up being an affc/adwd situation
I can't. Not again. I'm not... strong enough.
I think he has said that we will probably have two volumes because the book will be too big, but it would not be like AFFC and ADWD, I have read other people who have said that in their countries ASOS and ADWD was published in two volumes, I think that will happen with TWOW, that book will be bigger than ASOS.
Do you mean with a 10 year gap in between the two? Yeah that might just happen yes.
I assume they meant splitting the cast again.
If its split it won't be by location. That'll just take more time to edit and delay the release
I actually think he's just been pressed to give an unrealistic deadline too early on, possibly he hadn't written anything else than the sample chapters at the time. When the deadlines passed, and the years after the deadline passed too, he probably started to find it increasingly difficult to justify the actual completion of the books, so he's just stalling Also, he probably has a very unrealistic view of his own motivation (takes one to know one)
In one of his updates a few months back he mentioned something about how the publisher would need to decide whether to split it into multiple physical books for release or not.
I’m pretty sure he’s said that Winds and Dream will be the longest books of the series so yeah that sounds about right. Also to be fair 2000 manuscript pages isn’t 2000 published pages
Well, for one, he said himself multiple times TWoW would be the longest book in the series, so yeah maybe. Though, he's talking manuscript pages. I don't exactly understand what it means, my guess would be the editor trims part of the books once Martin has finished writing it
He is talking in manuscript pages.
Iirc he said this would be as big as it could be without splitting into two books
So just a few lunch descriptions left
My question is how will this be published? Feast and Dance were massive books, maybe Winds will have to be split into 2 volumes?
They better be released simultaneously, another AFFC/ADWD situation will finish me off
ASOS and ADWD where published simultaneously in two volumes in several languages/countries due to size issues.
Yup, they were in my native Britain. There’s no way it won’t be the same sitch w winds
They could do the same thing like the Stormlight archive, where I live you could rarely find a complete book, it is usually split in two.
This book is either 5k pages long, or this man has rewritten it 10x
Only 10x? That’s cute
His author homies are ripping him apart lmao
They're grouping on our poor ol George.
Peer pressure will keep him in line
Good. Until it causes him stress.
This information comes from a comedy skit though, right? Are we sure it can be taken seriously?
I'll take literally anything at this point. George could say he farted during the completion of a TWOW page and I'd be like, "TWOW IS COMING BOYS LET'S GOOOO"
Yes.
That's an insane number if you look at other books, hell some of my history books are smaller than that lol. Just to make it clear, I'm betting this book is gonna be fucking massive considering his other books in the series were either 700+,900+, or DWD which was 1000. This book is gonna be great when it comes out
Fall 2023 release let's gooooo
Mid 2025 most likely. But still let's gooo
My mans counting pages like I did words in a high school essay.
*Sigh* I appreciate the update but that’s still like two years away. GDI George.
I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe
This is all meaningless, of course. He said he thought he was 3 months away - how many years ago was that? I think 7 years now.
Take your time dude! It’s not like you’ve got a fervent fan base that’s been desperately waiting for the next book for a decade or so.
I feel like these pages will be written quicker than the rest since the big hurdle was figuring out a lot of the plot points and now he just needs to wrap up the story.
If this was Stephen King he'd be done tomorrow
Lmao at all the hopeful comments here. If I had a nickel for every time I read, "I'll take that as a good sign"... It all sounds great until he decides to chuck out 700 pages and redo it...
Many people are misunderstanding the news, it does not mean that George has only written 400 or 500 pages, but that he has 400 or 500 pages left to finish.
So... 33%? That's old news isn't it?
Preston said as much but everyone dogpiled him
There's a significant chunk of the fandom that just lives to hate on Preston
Don't know why. He's such a good guy and makes good videos until the last part of his video where he goes over the top. Which i find very funny.
In the absence of new material in the main story, I find him one of the most enjoyable ways to engage with it. Like yeah he gets super tinfoil-y but that's part of the fun. And when he dives into the thematic elements of the story, like his series on Brienne or his TWOW sample chapter analyses, he can be downright riveting.
Well said.
ok
That's nice, George. Not having any expectations whatsoever.
He’s probably been finished with the book and is just fuckin with people
Isn't that like half of ASOS?
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I’m 8 years past giving a damn.
Yet here you are.
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So he's approximately 2/3 of the way done....... after over a decade..... what a complete joke
I definitely just made a very dissatisfied, angry, impatient, dismayed noise between a groan and snort reading this.
This means he’s written approximately 50 words per year since aDwD released, on average. It’s….something!
On average sure but realistically it was nothing until the pandamic where he wrote ~800 pages (plus the 300 or so leftover gives us the 1100 he has done now). He probably spent the first year or so taking a break, then he consulted on (and wrote a lot of the early) game of thrones, wrote the dunk and egg novelas, fire and blood, worked on elden ring, all while travelling to conventions and events.
At this point? I no longer care
This subreddit is filled with users who regularly comment this, yet for some reason, they continue doing it.
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I mean, his books average a 1000 pages in the regular trade paperback, so he’s half way done with it? That’s not a good thing. But at least he has a framework and plan if he knows the page count? No surprises then?
Winds is going to be about 1500 pages or so we've been led to believe. And it does seem like he's had a productive few months on the book, he's talked about being near to wrapping up character arcs on his blog. It's a pity that he's going to rewrite some of it, but if he's at 500 pages left I'd call that the home stretch. Release date December 2029
> I mean, his books average a 1000 pages in the regular trade paperback, so he’s half way done with it? No? How did you arrive at this math? He flat-out says he has 1100 pages completed.
Until i get the book into my Hands idc,perhaps i wont even care at that moment
But you still visit this subreddit and continue to participate 😊
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Yeah, sure...
Did george lise a lot of weight? I hope that‘s not a bad sign
At this point, I couldn't give a fuck about winds of winter. He needs to finish dream of spring to get me interested. That way the series is done, rather than in this weird middle ground limbo.
My guess we’ll never get book 7.
This book is never going to happen. He has lost interest. It’s a shame because it’s a great story, but he has moved on.
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