A few things:
1. Skinner’s defensive play isn’t the only problem. It was bad in 22-23 as well, but he was a strong net positive. It’s his lack of ability to drive and support possession. When his linemates are on and pulling the load for him, Skinner is boppin. If one or both are not 100%, he is a giveaway machine and cannot hold possession.
2. Of course they plan to add to the top 6 this offseason. Adams said it directly. There are too many options that work IMO to think that they won’t. Kane, Buchnevich, Ehlers, whoever comes out of Tampa. Even a guy like Mangiapane would be fine as a second line wing with Benson putting upward pressure.
nice summary and your take on his play is spot on..he needs both linemates to pull the load..something the Hurricanes understood when they let him go
great skater, great hands, knows the way to the net
I know this may be unpopular but....in my opinion I always thought Krueger was correct about Skinner's defensive play. One may disagree with how Krueger addressed it by essentially burying him on the 'taxi' squad. Did Botts over pay? Yes but remember Sabres sucked then too and at the time Jeff scored 40 g and played all 82..not sign him after? Botz would have been run out of town
Many are placing great hope on Benson
let's not forget he will be 19 yo
That's why they let him go for a 2nd and Cliff Pu. This is also why I don't want a replica like Necas. The trade was fine enough at that time but resigning him, which we all wanted, proved to be a massive mistake
I was vocally against it at the time and ate downvotes constantly lol. Skinner's game has never changed and it was obvious who he was. Someone who had the hottest October/November of their lives in a contract year. Also known as the perfect deadline trade bait for a rebuilding team. But most fans are impatient. Which is also why we are buying him out.
It was absolutely the right decision at the time. There's no way we could have replaced his production and we still won't. We'll be long shots for playoffs without him imo. It looking like a mild step back this year is the plan.
The hurricanes were clear about why they dumped him and it wasn't his play
>"I think we felt culturally that we needed to make some changes," Hurricanes GM Don Waddell said. "This was the right time for us to move on and provide Jeff with a fresh start in Buffalo."
Evaluating and executing are two separate skills. Maybe Krueger could evaluate (maybe) but he 100% could not execute a competent plan. Dahlin is a great example - dude nearly wrecked him before Donny brought him back.
Yes. But insiders have been long-hinting that Botterill did not want to do the deal and was Pegula-forced to do anything to sign him (rather than letting go). Botterill was let go a year later after they extended him, and he wouldn't fire staff. He said no to being their 'yes' man anymore.
1. His on-ice goal differential last year was +22. Best on the team.
2. Dahlin, Cozens, Power, and Byram all had more total giveaways than Skinner (33). Tuch was only 2 behind him.
He's never been great defensively , but he was far from the train wreck he's made out to be.
+22 isn't super impressive when you see he has 191 minutes on the PP vs 3 minutes on the PK. He leads the team because most of our top players were on the PK
yeah but what is it for before thompson was injured and after? felt like skinner started off super hot and nobody was even questioning his role and around the time thompson got injured skinners production just fell off and never really recovered.
They just one part of the picture, yes.
I'm not arguing that he's the next Peca. Just that the 'he's the worst defensive player in the history of hockey' narratives are a bit much.
Those gosh darn Skinner Stans saying it's a good buyout since Kevyn Adams will likely use the space to add a legit, younger player to the top 6.
For real, the entire old top line of Skinner - Thompson - Tuch had a down year last year. We know Tage played through an injury most of the year and that definitely affected his game and Tuch and Skinner's games as well. They both had very similar seasons this year (Skinner 55.29 GF%, 47.2 xGF% | Tuch 54.55 GF%, 48.13 xGF%).
The difference is one guy was being crucified by the fanbase because he smiled during practice, and the other guy was being held up as a potential captain to replace Okposo because he's from a city two hours away. And now one of them is getting bought out and the other is sticking around, which I'll agree makes sense with how bad Skinner's contract is and how friendly Alex Tuch's is.
The reason why Skinner is likely to be bought out has very little to do with his down production last year. Just like Carolina didn't move off him after a down 49 point season in 2017-18 from 37g and 63p the season before. Regardless if he scores 20 goals or 40 goals, his issues are always the same and worse is his issues are effort related. It's not that he is bad at defense, it's that he doesn't give a fuck about playing defense. It's not that he smiled during practice, it's that he never has shown having issue in playing over 1000 games and not making the playoffs.
Even if Tuch never reaches the level of 36g/79p again he brings value because he can and is willing to play up and down the lineup. His low contract is just a bonus. The only way Skinner works is if he plays top line minutes. He value goes down drastically the farther down the lineup he is placed.
Combined is why Skinner is likely to be bought out. The hard truth is he should have never been given a NMC, he just isn't a player that earned that. But he knew the situation the Sabres were in when he signed the deal and now is holding on to it. It's his right to do so but this is the result of that.
Gotta trust GMKA on this one. I think holding him one more year is the better option on paper and see how it goes. We have the cap space this year to do just about whatever we want w/o the buyout, but the following 2 years will be tough. Limiting the cap hit, perhaps figuring out a trade-deadline trade to a contender with 50% retained (assuming Skinner agreed), or whatever other similar scenario would math out better. I'm also not convinced that Ruff wouldn't be able to make Skinner a better 2-way player. If his 0% defense went to 25% w/o a major loss in production, could turn out keeping him would have been better.
But we don't know what conversations GMKA had with Skinner, with Ruff, with his player evaluators, with other GMs, etc. I assume all of that information that we don't have added up to an answer that made a buyout the better option. I just have no idea how we make year 3 of cap hit work AND add meaningfully to the roster this year AND sign our RFAs.
I think we're going to have to move on from someone else and rely a bit on some entry level contracts to make the numbers pencil if we do try to add meaningfully this year.
I always defended Skinner on this team. I thought he was a good addition. However when you end up on the 3rd line and you look at the depth chart and notice that's where he belongs and he's being paid $9 million a year... it's time for him to go
Plus if I know Lindy from the last time he was here, he's gonna want bigger, more defensive and physical players on this team
Skinner was a player that was ruined by Krueger for 2 years, he bounced back with Granato though his defensive numbers were awful for all of those seasons. Like u/Rougemutantbrain said when his linemates weren’t at 100 he wasn’t either. I don’t know how many times I’ve seen him turnover the puck on neutral ice, enough to dub it the “skinner special” though.
If the buyout does happen though we either need to sign a solid top line guy, or move Peterka up on line one and sign a 3rd line contributor like an Anthony Mantha or Daniel Sprong.
I don't know if I necessarily saw him turn it over more than anyone else, it was the backcheck, defensive zone play, willingness to get in the corner and win battles, play positional hockey. Still the smoothest skater I've seen and his game was fine past the blue line. But you'd still like to see him play like an actual power forward sometimes.
Skinner is going to go have a 40 goal season on a contender team, but still end up being -2 by the end of the season. This one definitely stings a bit at first glance but when you break the numbers down, they will be okay without him.
Don't know why you're getting downvoted for sharing an opinion.
Yes, the year 3 of the buyout is going to hurt, but hopefully that's off-set a bit by an additional 4m in cap and then the year after we will be able to spend again
Saves $7.5M this season, $4.5M next, and $2.5M in year three.
The cost? $2.44M in 4, 5, and 6 seasons from now. That should be pretty manageable, cap wise.
The saving 4.5 still means another 4.5 of dead cap, and new players are going to reflect the new higher cap in their signings. Players due that year: jjp, Quinn, Levi, Ryan Johnson, Byram and some "fringe-rs". Some of them aren't small contracts, and that's not including the cost of Skinners replacement, as well as the dead cap.
The dead cap in the twos I'm not so concerned about. 4.5 sucks tho. I'd be trying to trade with about 2.5 mill retained. Skinner at 6.5 is a lot better value wise, and would have some intrerest. He's not a bad player, just a flawed one being paid too much. Problem being that damn no move.
We could always bridge jjp, Quinn, I suppose. I don't think Byram will be willing so he's probably going to be expensive or gone. I've a very poor appetite for Reinharting (bridged forever until the best option is trading, despite consistently trending up every year) more players, although with injuries Quinn kinda fits a bridge.
Tldr: I think 4.5 is alot of dead cap, and that sucks. Also, I got really ramble-ly. My bad.
Why don't we make him the 13th forward? We have the cap space for the next 2 years.....maybe he'll waive his no movement. I'd rather eat half his salary for 3 more years.
Oh of course. Pegula had to sign skinner forever at 9milion a season a few years ago but now he sucks so bad we have to pay him to go away. That is so quintessentially Buffalo Sabres.
We just better freaking be good next year. Tired of this bullshit. I’m a fan since 71 and I’m so disgusted with the never-ending ineptitude I almost can’t stand the sight of our sweater anymore. Great job killing a once-proud franchise, Pegula. 5 more of your players just got their names on the cup as a reward for escaping the disaster you created.
A few things: 1. Skinner’s defensive play isn’t the only problem. It was bad in 22-23 as well, but he was a strong net positive. It’s his lack of ability to drive and support possession. When his linemates are on and pulling the load for him, Skinner is boppin. If one or both are not 100%, he is a giveaway machine and cannot hold possession. 2. Of course they plan to add to the top 6 this offseason. Adams said it directly. There are too many options that work IMO to think that they won’t. Kane, Buchnevich, Ehlers, whoever comes out of Tampa. Even a guy like Mangiapane would be fine as a second line wing with Benson putting upward pressure.
nice summary and your take on his play is spot on..he needs both linemates to pull the load..something the Hurricanes understood when they let him go great skater, great hands, knows the way to the net I know this may be unpopular but....in my opinion I always thought Krueger was correct about Skinner's defensive play. One may disagree with how Krueger addressed it by essentially burying him on the 'taxi' squad. Did Botts over pay? Yes but remember Sabres sucked then too and at the time Jeff scored 40 g and played all 82..not sign him after? Botz would have been run out of town Many are placing great hope on Benson let's not forget he will be 19 yo
That's why they let him go for a 2nd and Cliff Pu. This is also why I don't want a replica like Necas. The trade was fine enough at that time but resigning him, which we all wanted, proved to be a massive mistake
I was vocally against it at the time and ate downvotes constantly lol. Skinner's game has never changed and it was obvious who he was. Someone who had the hottest October/November of their lives in a contract year. Also known as the perfect deadline trade bait for a rebuilding team. But most fans are impatient. Which is also why we are buying him out.
If there is anything I've learned is that there is no talking sense into reddit hivemind narratives. Our brains were clouded by desperation
It was absolutely the right decision at the time. There's no way we could have replaced his production and we still won't. We'll be long shots for playoffs without him imo. It looking like a mild step back this year is the plan.
The hurricanes were clear about why they dumped him and it wasn't his play >"I think we felt culturally that we needed to make some changes," Hurricanes GM Don Waddell said. "This was the right time for us to move on and provide Jeff with a fresh start in Buffalo."
Evaluating and executing are two separate skills. Maybe Krueger could evaluate (maybe) but he 100% could not execute a competent plan. Dahlin is a great example - dude nearly wrecked him before Donny brought him back.
You can't micromanage in hockey. The game is too fluid. You can try, but players just become robotic and you take the soul out of them
agree 100 percent!
Krueger tried to reach Dahlin how to be responsible defensively, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that.
Botterill was out of a job because he wouldn't agree to giving Skinner the big contract.
Botterill was the GM May 11, 2017 – June 16, 2020. Skinner signed his 8 year deal with Buffalo in June 2019.
Yes. But insiders have been long-hinting that Botterill did not want to do the deal and was Pegula-forced to do anything to sign him (rather than letting go). Botterill was let go a year later after they extended him, and he wouldn't fire staff. He said no to being their 'yes' man anymore.
the long hunting rumours probably were correct.
1. His on-ice goal differential last year was +22. Best on the team. 2. Dahlin, Cozens, Power, and Byram all had more total giveaways than Skinner (33). Tuch was only 2 behind him. He's never been great defensively , but he was far from the train wreck he's made out to be.
What is on ice goal differential that makes it different than +/-?
It considers ALL goals scored (for or against) when a player is on the ice. Traditional +/- doesn't consider power play goals.
Hmm that’s interesting. Through Dahlin, Power, Tuch, Thompson, Cozens, and Benson play on the penalty kill, while Jeff doesn’t.
+22 isn't super impressive when you see he has 191 minutes on the PP vs 3 minutes on the PK. He leads the team because most of our top players were on the PK
JJ Peterka had 157 PP mins, 0:33 shorthanded. His OIGD was +21. Are we saying that Peterka is now a defensive train wreck?
special teams don’t count for +-
This isn't just +/- it's on ice goal differential. His normal +/- is -2.
sorry i misread lol
https://www.reddit.com/r/sabres/comments/1dixgnp/for_those_interested_heres_skinners_stats_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
yeah but what is it for before thompson was injured and after? felt like skinner started off super hot and nobody was even questioning his role and around the time thompson got injured skinners production just fell off and never really recovered.
That's been his entire career. Very , very streaky.
Stats like "total goal differential" and "total giveaways" aren't really great metrics on their own. Not agreeing or disagreeing, just sayin.
They just one part of the picture, yes. I'm not arguing that he's the next Peca. Just that the 'he's the worst defensive player in the history of hockey' narratives are a bit much.
Yes yes this!
So much for between two stalls. It was fun. Poor Cole.
I want playoffs, not skits.
Yes! Who doesn't?
I just bought a Skinner jersey.
☠️
Stuart?
A bunch of us did, I think (I did too)
Same, how hard is it to have the name/numbers removed?
Hopefully Alex Tuch at least offers to help him move since Jeff took a lot of the heat away from how bad Tuch was last season.
Tuch is a 2nd/3rd liner on a good team. Normal expectations should not be 80 point seasons (Welcome downvotes)
Is this what we can expect from Skinner Stans? Shitting on anyone that's left?
Those gosh darn Skinner Stans saying it's a good buyout since Kevyn Adams will likely use the space to add a legit, younger player to the top 6. For real, the entire old top line of Skinner - Thompson - Tuch had a down year last year. We know Tage played through an injury most of the year and that definitely affected his game and Tuch and Skinner's games as well. They both had very similar seasons this year (Skinner 55.29 GF%, 47.2 xGF% | Tuch 54.55 GF%, 48.13 xGF%). The difference is one guy was being crucified by the fanbase because he smiled during practice, and the other guy was being held up as a potential captain to replace Okposo because he's from a city two hours away. And now one of them is getting bought out and the other is sticking around, which I'll agree makes sense with how bad Skinner's contract is and how friendly Alex Tuch's is.
The reason why Skinner is likely to be bought out has very little to do with his down production last year. Just like Carolina didn't move off him after a down 49 point season in 2017-18 from 37g and 63p the season before. Regardless if he scores 20 goals or 40 goals, his issues are always the same and worse is his issues are effort related. It's not that he is bad at defense, it's that he doesn't give a fuck about playing defense. It's not that he smiled during practice, it's that he never has shown having issue in playing over 1000 games and not making the playoffs. Even if Tuch never reaches the level of 36g/79p again he brings value because he can and is willing to play up and down the lineup. His low contract is just a bonus. The only way Skinner works is if he plays top line minutes. He value goes down drastically the farther down the lineup he is placed. Combined is why Skinner is likely to be bought out. The hard truth is he should have never been given a NMC, he just isn't a player that earned that. But he knew the situation the Sabres were in when he signed the deal and now is holding on to it. It's his right to do so but this is the result of that.
If they use the cap savings to bring in a legit top-6 forward, good. If this is Terry trying to save a few bucks, bad.
So who is he winning the cup with? Colorado? Dallas? Vegas?
Toronto picks him up. Miss playoffs by one point.
Toronto picks him up. Loses to Buffalo in the first round.
But..... that means Skinner makes playoffs. Be funny if didn't if he gets his choice of team....
How about they just do that without taking one of my favorite players down with them?
Gotta trust GMKA on this one. I think holding him one more year is the better option on paper and see how it goes. We have the cap space this year to do just about whatever we want w/o the buyout, but the following 2 years will be tough. Limiting the cap hit, perhaps figuring out a trade-deadline trade to a contender with 50% retained (assuming Skinner agreed), or whatever other similar scenario would math out better. I'm also not convinced that Ruff wouldn't be able to make Skinner a better 2-way player. If his 0% defense went to 25% w/o a major loss in production, could turn out keeping him would have been better. But we don't know what conversations GMKA had with Skinner, with Ruff, with his player evaluators, with other GMs, etc. I assume all of that information that we don't have added up to an answer that made a buyout the better option. I just have no idea how we make year 3 of cap hit work AND add meaningfully to the roster this year AND sign our RFAs. I think we're going to have to move on from someone else and rely a bit on some entry level contracts to make the numbers pencil if we do try to add meaningfully this year.
That video of Skinner and the guys goofing around at practice really backfired huh
Skinner to the Leafs confirmed
I always defended Skinner on this team. I thought he was a good addition. However when you end up on the 3rd line and you look at the depth chart and notice that's where he belongs and he's being paid $9 million a year... it's time for him to go Plus if I know Lindy from the last time he was here, he's gonna want bigger, more defensive and physical players on this team
I hope they don’t. Unless they have big plans to land a bonafide top 6 forward to replace him. Bringing up a prospect won’t cut it.
With how bad he is defensively I think his replacement level is lot lower than people think.
Dude is buns if he isn’t scoring goals and he goes 20+ without doing that
Luckily you aren’t GM then
Makes no sense from a cap stand point. The Sabres don't spend to the cap. I guess it's just maintaining lifestyle savings?
Skinner was a player that was ruined by Krueger for 2 years, he bounced back with Granato though his defensive numbers were awful for all of those seasons. Like u/Rougemutantbrain said when his linemates weren’t at 100 he wasn’t either. I don’t know how many times I’ve seen him turnover the puck on neutral ice, enough to dub it the “skinner special” though. If the buyout does happen though we either need to sign a solid top line guy, or move Peterka up on line one and sign a 3rd line contributor like an Anthony Mantha or Daniel Sprong.
I don't know if I necessarily saw him turn it over more than anyone else, it was the backcheck, defensive zone play, willingness to get in the corner and win battles, play positional hockey. Still the smoothest skater I've seen and his game was fine past the blue line. But you'd still like to see him play like an actual power forward sometimes.
Skinner is going to go have a 40 goal season on a contender team, but still end up being -2 by the end of the season. This one definitely stings a bit at first glance but when you break the numbers down, they will be okay without him.
If couldn’t trade him, then I’m more than ok with this
And the rebuild continues......
Ick I don't like how the buyout breaks down. This sucks
Don't know why you're getting downvoted for sharing an opinion. Yes, the year 3 of the buyout is going to hurt, but hopefully that's off-set a bit by an additional 4m in cap and then the year after we will be able to spend again
Isn’t the point of Reddit to downvote people you disagree with?
Downvotes used to be for rule breaking, off topic and non-contributing content. Now it's just opinions you don't like.
Saves $7.5M this season, $4.5M next, and $2.5M in year three. The cost? $2.44M in 4, 5, and 6 seasons from now. That should be pretty manageable, cap wise.
The saving 4.5 still means another 4.5 of dead cap, and new players are going to reflect the new higher cap in their signings. Players due that year: jjp, Quinn, Levi, Ryan Johnson, Byram and some "fringe-rs". Some of them aren't small contracts, and that's not including the cost of Skinners replacement, as well as the dead cap. The dead cap in the twos I'm not so concerned about. 4.5 sucks tho. I'd be trying to trade with about 2.5 mill retained. Skinner at 6.5 is a lot better value wise, and would have some intrerest. He's not a bad player, just a flawed one being paid too much. Problem being that damn no move. We could always bridge jjp, Quinn, I suppose. I don't think Byram will be willing so he's probably going to be expensive or gone. I've a very poor appetite for Reinharting (bridged forever until the best option is trading, despite consistently trending up every year) more players, although with injuries Quinn kinda fits a bridge. Tldr: I think 4.5 is alot of dead cap, and that sucks. Also, I got really ramble-ly. My bad.
It’s really not bad
Awesome, so that makes him the next future Stanley Cup winner then?
Why don't we make him the 13th forward? We have the cap space for the next 2 years.....maybe he'll waive his no movement. I'd rather eat half his salary for 3 more years.
Oh of course. Pegula had to sign skinner forever at 9milion a season a few years ago but now he sucks so bad we have to pay him to go away. That is so quintessentially Buffalo Sabres. We just better freaking be good next year. Tired of this bullshit. I’m a fan since 71 and I’m so disgusted with the never-ending ineptitude I almost can’t stand the sight of our sweater anymore. Great job killing a once-proud franchise, Pegula. 5 more of your players just got their names on the cup as a reward for escaping the disaster you created.
Jaja
Bad move.
False