I have one account that is for martingale and the other that is for regular bets. Yes it works but you have to pick your spots. I only do Martingale in MLB. I wait till the first round of games are over, and take the loser to win one game of the next two left in the series. Lost on the Astros š” but philly and baltimore came through for me.
Losing 10 in a row , starting with 20$, using martingale strategy, would result in a 20k plus wager , after already being down 20k.
Itās not a terrible strategy, but if you keep doing it you will eventually lose everything.
Trouble with this method is independent events don't have memory. Everyone thinks if red 15 times must be black next. But the table doesn't think I should really mix this up
> So youāre betting on the 93.75% chance it doesnāt land heads four times.
No you're betting on the 50% chance of the next flip - it doesn't matter what happened before, the next flip is still 50/50. The coin doesn't have a memory, the result of the next flip is not influenced at all by past results and Tails isn't "due" just because there was a string of several Heads beforehand. In fact it doesn't even matter if you bet on Heads or Tails for the next flip, the odds are exactly the same (Heads-Heads-Heads-Heads and Heads-Heads-Heads-Tails both have the exact same probability).
I think you misunderstand still. That bet is 50/50. You keep doubling your bet each time you lose because the actually bet is the string of 5 in a row. Not the one. Hope that helps clarify. And yes, if the odds are truly the same on both sides then it doesnāt actually matter red or black you just have to keep doubling the bet.
Chasing your losses by doubling your bet doesn't change the fact that you're still betting on a single outcome. Regardless, the Martingale system has been proven to be a losing system long-term as there is a 100% certainty that you will eventually run into a losing streak that will either bankrupt you or simply exceed the wager limits. And it's much more likely to happen than you think:
> the probability of losing 6 times in a row (i.e. encountering a streak of 6 losses)Ā at some pointĀ during a string of 200 plays is approximately 84%. Even if the gambler can tolerate betting ~1,000 times their original bet, a streak of 10 losses in a row has an ~11% chance of occurring in a string of 200 plays.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)
Itās not chasing your losses friend. Itās essentially a reverse parlay where youāre the book. But Iām glad you finally googled it. And yes, you can have a catastrophic loss if you donāt have deep enough pockets or if youāre capped by a max bet. Everyone knows that lol. Doesnāt mean the math isnāt sound for string probability.
Except, in reality it is an individual events. Flipping a coin on the second time is independent of the first. Iāve used it on roulette and hit 16 black in a row. (I stopped after 10 because I ran out of cash) but ya.
The Martingale can work, but itās also kinda silly. If you start your first bet at $20 like this guy is and lose 5 bets, on the 6th bet youāre already betting $300 just to win your original $20 (so risking $300 just to make a measly 5%) Youāre better off with straight bets, or to only double your bets x amount of times.
But if youāre winning, keep on keepin on. Theyāll max out your bet eventually or you bet $4800 just to win $20..
Yes brother, I understand the math works on paper. Iām saying it gets silly when you lose 10 or 12 times. Start with $1,000 rather than $1.
Gambling in real life and putting your funds up is a little different than putting the numbers in an excel spreadsheet.
Your ROI calcs are way off if you have lost 5 in a row lol. If you lost 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, and won the 640 bet. You ROI is 20 dollars out of 1260 wagered for a ROI of less than 1%, not 50 %. So this info is just bad.
That was an example of my longest loss streak, not the overall picture. Iāve been doing it for months. I think my personal edge is why Iām maintaining that return %. Not necessarily the strategy as some have pointed out.
Well you better stop very soon because it doesn't matter how much you are up when martingale is guaranteed to lose at the end. Good you make money now but its just a terrible strategy. 10 in a row is an actual lock due to Benfords law (and practically it really isnt that hard) and you can't take that.
Cold streaks are real. If ur doing martingale the gods will punish and wipe everything you have made at some point
5 straight losses aināt shit. You will absolutely lose 10 straight at some point. Itās probably more likely to happen than not. Happens to me all the time and itās no sweat
Why donāt you just increase your unit size and make flat bets and be disciplined? If youāre willing to drop 20k on a martingale āstrategyā just make ur unit size $200. Will prob make more
Iām bad at math but I feel like this is survivor ship bias. You say you are up 50%, but isnāt that pretty much the bare minimum when you are double down on every bet? Youāre either up 50% or down 100% generally speaking
Not trying to be a dick bro but this is not going to work out IF you do not take ur profit and change strategy at some point.
In theory, I like the idea of the martingale system with live betting a baseball game. Bet there will be a run scored on the first inning and if not continue until the end of the game. Of course there would be games with no score til extra innings but you could call it quits if it reaches the 10th and take the loss for the day. Iām guessing the major hurdle would be the odds changing as the game goes on. Iāve never tried this but it sounds intriguing to me.
MLB season Iām going to live by the Baltimore orioleās money line/ run line especially with there run line being + money both games this season how could I not
I did it with Pete Alonso home runs last year I think I was up about 800 and he had an injury and I stopped. Was a lot of fun though. I would start at 5 and double each day a Homer wasnāt hitā¦ I may start again just with a smaller starting bet..
just admit it is -EV and you do it bc you find it fun. Then we wouldn't have a problem; your money, you're free to spend it how you like. The issue is that you seem to be encouraging others to try to make money using a martingale, and we don't want to see people fall into that trap
You didn't ask about tweaks at all in the initial post; in any case, it would also be good to clear that tweaks would just modify how -EV this is, not somehow make it +EV.
That you were "asking if someone else saw similar success" is kinda my point; I don't know what you intended the effect of that question to be, but in effect, if naive gamblers stumble into a thread like this and see a bunch of people saying how the martingale has worked for them, you're gonna be creating converts
It's not like this is a new thing. It has a name and has been around for forever. We know it's not a great idea. Dumb post honestly. Asking if there are others having similar success and about tweaks? Just go read some shit, or did you already? And it told you it was a bad idea.
I like to Martingale Tennis points when the opponents are kinda close in talent. The underdog for each set will almost always take at least one point. But I'm talking like 50 cents starting bet.
I am 7/11 on baseball bets. I take the game props score. Typically do both teams over 2.5 or 3.5.
This gives me a +120 or so. It doubles the winnings. So I am a little over even at this point.
I also only place .10 bets. I am not losing the mortgage and family over betting, but I do find it to add extra fun to a game even if my winnings are only a stick of gum.
And your point? Whatās wrong with not losing my life savings on something that is typically a win by the house?
My approach has me up $120 in the last year. Itās not much but itās not a loss.
My point is that most peoples free time is worth more than your average bet size for whatever amount of time it takes you to do all of that.
Or 120$ for the total over the year.
To each their own.
How much you make typing out these comments?
..... let's not act like what one does in their free time should be or is usually a calculation of financial utility. People play video games, scroll social media, listen to music, read books, meditate. Putting a dollar sign on what one does in their free time is kinda useless.
Some people just bet for entertainment and don't need a lot of money riding on it to get that entertainment. Being able to do that shows a lot of discipline imo.
I profusely apologize for having an opinion.
Excuse me while I go do hours of research and place some nickel bets at the highest +EV I can find
Thank you for your service š«”
Apologizing for something irrelevant to the issue is just passive-aggressive. If your contrition were genuine, youād apologize for holding onto an unconsidered opinion.
I used this method with a $25 unit. Kept everything in a notebook by split by sport so even if the sport was different i could stomach an unprecedented losing streak
It was fun and profitable for a while but trust me when i say you will find out. Havenāt been daily betting since December since when i did, fuck around and find out
Also once you start losing and you get up there in price going back down to the single unit wins/profit seem like nothing at all once you just survived the $1000 bet and that adrenaline rush
I still use this method sometimes and at the casino but havenāt been betting much. Just donāt think its fool proof. Just my two cents
I turned 1k into 10k in a week or so, cashing out because Iāve been doing this a while and know myself, Iāll lose it all if I keep going. Will try again in a few months
I use this method as well and have been pretty successful last couple years. I select a few NBA stars and bet their over every game. Double amount every time he goes under. I stop betting on last winning bet if there are under 12 games to go in season.
I see what you're saying, but you're assuming his $20 initial bet was his starting "bankroll." If he started with 10k and is up 5k that's up 50%. Him starting at 20 is smart. With that starting point he's saying he can afford to lose up to an $80,000 bet if he loses 12 in a row.
I bet college basketball, with an edge, and I'm very profitable. That being said, I've lost over 15 bets in a row before, at roughly 50% implied probability. You will eventually lose everything with this strategy.
There are about 8000 D1 NCAA basketball games per season. I bet live in-game only. I'm able to find an edge on average once a game roughly. Some games I might have 3 or more bets, some games I might have none. The reason for the volume is just basically, because I can. No reason not to bet as much as you can if you have an edge. I keep the bets on the smaller side too because larger bets automatically tend to trigger an inspection by the book, so the volume is necessary.
I'm able to identify a particular bet, usually on the full game side or total, that is mispriced at a particular sportsbook at some point while the game is ongoing.
The thing thatās so dangerous about the martingale is how quickly your bet size increases with a loss streak. But Iām not sure you know what the martingale is based on your post / some comments or are just totally blind to how devastating of an approach it can be
You say your starting unit is $20 - 6 losses in a row and your bet would already be over $1,000. (Youād have lost the 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640). I understand that nobody thinks theyāll actually lose 10-15 in a row (tho it can absolutely happen) it doesnāt need to get to that point to already be burying. 5-6 losses in a row is extremely likely to happen at some point and ask yourself if you like the idea of having to bet over 1k just to net $20
And as a btw, if you do happen to lose 10 in a row that puts you down over 10kā¦.
Luckily I got to learn this with VR money on my occulus. Went on a run up to 30 million in poker and then somehow lost 30 straight nba bets to lose it all. Fake money but the lesson felt real because I was actually trying to win š
I did this with tennis points for a while. Find a match where it's like +140 against the serve on both sides. It works until it doesn't lol. A lot of bets and a lot of stress for minimal profit. Really only works if you have unlimited money. But hey, have fun and entertain yourself.
This doesnāt work if you donāt already have an edge. If you do have a legitimate edge, it could work in the long run, but so would straight unit bets.
It works without an edge as long as you size your bets correctly so that a win covers all the losses and leaves you with a profit. The only limitation is bankroll and bet limits.
Quick story. Friend of mine deployed this strategy at the roulette table. Started with $300 and bet the table minimum ($10) on red or black. Didn't think he could lose more than five in a row. And for a long time, he didn't. He had fun and a lot of butt clench moments for a couple hours, but he was up a decent chunk of money. I went to play BJ for a short time, couldn't have been gone for more than 20 minutes. When I came back, I found him off to the side shaking his head. He held his hand out, showing me one single $25 chip he had colored up for. It was a great lesson for me. This strategy can and probably will work for awhile, but inevitably, it will lose.
I see what youāre saying but roulette is completely different from sports betting where you can research lines and use data and general knowledge of sports to make educated bets.
Absolutely they do but itās entirely possible to be profitable lifetime. I will also admit I didnāt know what the martingale strategy was until now and that shit is dumb.
In what way is it not different? If youāre betting just black or red you have a 47.4% chance of winning. Cappers can easily maintain a 70% win rate. Thatās a huge difference.
70% Win rate at -110 odds = 33% Edge. You might be able to get an edge like this on a obscure sport with incredibly inefficient markets (I know of a beach volleyball capper that is in the range) but you simply cannot get en edge like this on any main markets, or even props. Highest prop edge Iāve seen is MAYBE 15%. If you do have information with an edge of 30%+ on a main market, for the love of god DM me LOL. I hope your getting a couple Kās down on this information.
Yeah but trivial means āof little value or importanceā which I donāt believe that definition really applies here. So I donāt understand the point you are trying to make
I thought I came up with this strategy when I was like 10yrs old, and could do it on route when I got old enough.... lol, later I realized this was already a strategy (saw it in movies/tv shows) that had been tried, and when a color/bet loses 8-15 times in a row your busted, and even well before that your risking 1000s trying to just to get back even. Not a good strategy
Starting at $20 is pretty brutal as others have stated since the inevitable is bound to happen. Would otherwise be a fun strategy if your first unit is very very low stakes
Itās basically gamblers fallacy where you think you canāt lose multiple games in a row.
If OP wins his 20 dollar bet, he bets 20 dollars on the next game and the cycle restarts.
If OP loses the bet, he bets 80 on the next game and then 160 on the game after that if he loses again, and keeps doubling it until he wins and nets 20 dollars
Youāll eventually hit your bet š¬ I cannot actually fathom losing 14 bets (-110) in a row that I do diligence on šššš not sure how down bad some of you are.
Ok now what if you lose 14 in a row. Itās a statistical inevitability and I highly doubt you have $320k to make the next bet. And if that one loses since itās a 50/50? Youāre eventually going to hit this and lose everything
$20 is an insanely low unit for me betting wise. Iām cool stomaching a few thousand dollar bet it if it comes to that BUT Iād probably ditch the Strat when I lose 7+ in a row. Iām not stupid. Iām just stating itās been working for me lately. Thatās all. People are so sensitive on here. Itās funny.
This is how I use the strategy on my game of choice. I pick a ālevelā that Iāll stop at on a loss.
My 10 cent unit can win via martingale 32 times before I lose 6 straight bets. When I lose 6 straight, I start all over again. If/when the bankroll allows, Iāll jump it up to a 7th bet.
My problem is discipline. Once I have a bankroll I play other games. And lose.
Discipline is one of your two problems here, if you want to make money longterm. The other problem is using a martingale. In fact, if you had less discipline and abandoned the martingale, that would (ironically) help matters somewhat, ceteris paribus!
So you'd ditch it which isn't the strategy. You wipe all your wins if you ditch it. It's picking up pennies in front of a steam roller, similar to betting heavy favorite MLs to win pennies. It works until it doesn't.
I'll add that if $20 isn't much to you then why are you putting so much work into winning $20?
Anybody who has a starting unit of $20 should never be betting $1k or $5k on a game.
That is what you are going to end up doing.
Stop doing this.
$20 per game is within your means.
Obviously $5k on a game probably is not..otherwise you wouldn't be betting $20 per game to start.
Seriously. Stop doing this.
Hey, can you really stomach losing 10 in a row like you said in your post?
The 10th bet would be about $10k...after you just lost the $5k bet on the 9th loss.
Sorry for interrupting your fun. But I truly wasn't trying to stop you from living. I mean, I don't even know who or where you are so any efforts by me to try to kill you wouldn't go very far. Didn't mean to give you that impression.
Yah Martingale is tough unless you are betting a very small % of bankroll so please just bet responsibly!
Personally not a fan but if it works for you then bol!
Canāt wait to come back in a few months āI lost 14 bets in a row using martingale. My wife divorced me. My children hate me and Iām 200k in debtā
One a more serious note tho. Please stop. Youāre inevitably going to ruin your life. It is clear you do not know what youāre doing. You can talk about having a bankroll big enough but when it comes time to place that 20k bet or 40k bet, itās a different story. And if you manage to lose on the 11th day, 12th day, 13th day, what is the plan then?
Youāre getting outperformed by a Hysa with 20k in itā¦
Brother, I am not low IQ. Sports betting is a hobby. Iām not going to go past 7+ losses most likely. I want my ego to get checked cause I donāt remember the last time I missed 6+ -110 bets in a row (that I do DD on) I have a spreadsheet tracker of over 200+ bets past few months and Iām at 57% right now.
let me make this easy for you. If you're hitting at that rate, decide on a standard bet size. maybe $100 or $200 (idk what your bankroll is)
and just bet that same amount each time you decide on your pick...
Instead of this double down sillyness to chase losses in an attempt to make it back despite the truly extreme risk. Just think about your risk reward. you're risking potentially thousans to be up under 100. whereas if you stick to a standard bet size, sure youll lose some, but if you truly are hitting at that rate you'll be drastically more in the green than whatever you're $20 increments is yielding you
Then fund an account properly with 1000 dollar units and you would be up big time. Instead you are up a few pennies. You will inevitably lose 7 in a row and be down 2.5k. Are your martingale winnings 2.5k as of now? Of course not. A 7 loss streak is nothing. It happens all of the time.
Weāve all had the martingale revelation brother. It is a canon moment for most in this sub. Admit youāre dumb. That you donāt understand basic math and move on before you blow your entire life savings. Unless you have unlimited money it does not work. You have 80 comments telling you that youāre wrong. Wake up. Take your head out of the sand.
Your overall win percentage means nothing. Just because you hit 57% does not mean you hit every other bet. There are streaks both ways. Youāre not just low IQ like everybody is saying. You are beneath that. Youāre delusional as well
āWeāve all had the martingale revelationā is a good way of putting it.
Itās fun & it doesnāt work beyond short-term.
That said, so long as you have a bankroll youāre OK to lose & donāt have a gambling problem, then enjoy and have the revelation as well.
> Brother, I am not low IQ
Yeah no, you are. The way you speak about Martingale makes it clear. You're gonna cry like a bitch when you lose it all. Have fun with that!
OP wagered 20$ per day and his maximum bet was 320 dollars(5 losses in a row). You think he earned$10 per day? No way. If somebody says 50%+ then it means they are unserious.
So then how would you have rephrased my question in order to understand it in context. Because you are coming off like the āknow it all kidā from polar express.
If you and i were to have this conversation in person would you have understood what i was getting at? Or would you have retorted with the āevery bet has a vigā pulled up your pants and readjusted your glasses. You are what is wrong with reddit. You must be a blast at parties. Yes, every bet had a vig. You acknowledgeed the -110 is a vig line. The OP was talking about betting -100 bets.
Your question āare you using alt lines to avoid the vigā doesnāt make sense though. If you asked ME in person Iād be pretty confused, probably because of the word avoid.
From your replies I think you mean is he using alt lines to account for vig so the lines are +100 and itās more a true double up Martingale strategy, and if so thatās a reasonable question and something I was wondering, too. But itās not what you asked, so maybe take a deep breath.
And though there are worse gambling strategies out there, OPās is pretty bad and will, given enough time and bets, lose a lot of money.
Vig is the % of a bet that a sports book gets from each bet. Thatās why you see odds like -110/-110 rather than 100/-100. Understanding vig, also called juice, is a super important part to being a profitable bettor, so be sure to read up on it! Lots of good sources you can google
honestly if you put in research I think itās pretty smart and much harder to fail at than say black jack or roulette because you have more control over it at least
Blackjack can be mathematically beaten. Unless OP has infinite money(he doesnāt) and can guarantee to get the necessary money down(he canāt), martingale is a mathematical certainty to lose.
All it comes down to is, if the bets are +EV it will work well. If they're-EV then it's no different than betting black.
And on top of that should probably aim for more like -200 bets.
If you can run a -200 bet (implied hit rate of 66.6) but have + EV where your hit rate is 70%+, your chance of 5 wrong in a row is only .2%. Personally I'd probably go for something a little better than 50/50 if you're going to martingale.
At the end of the day though if you're already +EV just doing straight bets is going to be the safest route
Wish me luck today. Fighting a bet 7.. Dodgers ML -166.
Yankees ML -225 Lets go!
š¤š¤
Never been this down bad.
I have one account that is for martingale and the other that is for regular bets. Yes it works but you have to pick your spots. I only do Martingale in MLB. I wait till the first round of games are over, and take the loser to win one game of the next two left in the series. Lost on the Astros š” but philly and baltimore came through for me.
Losing 10 in a row , starting with 20$, using martingale strategy, would result in a 20k plus wager , after already being down 20k. Itās not a terrible strategy, but if you keep doing it you will eventually lose everything.
That's Impossible especially on the run line the most I lost was 3 in a row
Trouble with this method is independent events don't have memory. Everyone thinks if red 15 times must be black next. But the table doesn't think I should really mix this up
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
> So youāre betting on the 93.75% chance it doesnāt land heads four times. No you're betting on the 50% chance of the next flip - it doesn't matter what happened before, the next flip is still 50/50. The coin doesn't have a memory, the result of the next flip is not influenced at all by past results and Tails isn't "due" just because there was a string of several Heads beforehand. In fact it doesn't even matter if you bet on Heads or Tails for the next flip, the odds are exactly the same (Heads-Heads-Heads-Heads and Heads-Heads-Heads-Tails both have the exact same probability).
I think you misunderstand still. That bet is 50/50. You keep doubling your bet each time you lose because the actually bet is the string of 5 in a row. Not the one. Hope that helps clarify. And yes, if the odds are truly the same on both sides then it doesnāt actually matter red or black you just have to keep doubling the bet.
Chasing your losses by doubling your bet doesn't change the fact that you're still betting on a single outcome. Regardless, the Martingale system has been proven to be a losing system long-term as there is a 100% certainty that you will eventually run into a losing streak that will either bankrupt you or simply exceed the wager limits. And it's much more likely to happen than you think: > the probability of losing 6 times in a row (i.e. encountering a streak of 6 losses)Ā at some pointĀ during a string of 200 plays is approximately 84%. Even if the gambler can tolerate betting ~1,000 times their original bet, a streak of 10 losses in a row has an ~11% chance of occurring in a string of 200 plays. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)
Itās not chasing your losses friend. Itās essentially a reverse parlay where youāre the book. But Iām glad you finally googled it. And yes, you can have a catastrophic loss if you donāt have deep enough pockets or if youāre capped by a max bet. Everyone knows that lol. Doesnāt mean the math isnāt sound for string probability.
LOL you can call it whatever you want but it's mathematically guaranteed to lose long-term.
Except, in reality it is an individual events. Flipping a coin on the second time is independent of the first. Iāve used it on roulette and hit 16 black in a row. (I stopped after 10 because I ran out of cash) but ya. The Martingale can work, but itās also kinda silly. If you start your first bet at $20 like this guy is and lose 5 bets, on the 6th bet youāre already betting $300 just to win your original $20 (so risking $300 just to make a measly 5%) Youāre better off with straight bets, or to only double your bets x amount of times. But if youāre winning, keep on keepin on. Theyāll max out your bet eventually or you bet $4800 just to win $20..
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Yes brother, I understand the math works on paper. Iām saying it gets silly when you lose 10 or 12 times. Start with $1,000 rather than $1. Gambling in real life and putting your funds up is a little different than putting the numbers in an excel spreadsheet.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Hahah. I hear ya. I was in Cambodia on a roulette table using this and lost $2500. Itās not for the faint of heart. We shall live on and thrive!
This is how Ohtaniās translator got busted
Your ROI calcs are way off if you have lost 5 in a row lol. If you lost 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, and won the 640 bet. You ROI is 20 dollars out of 1260 wagered for a ROI of less than 1%, not 50 %. So this info is just bad.
That was an example of my longest loss streak, not the overall picture. Iāve been doing it for months. I think my personal edge is why Iām maintaining that return %. Not necessarily the strategy as some have pointed out.
Well you better stop very soon because it doesn't matter how much you are up when martingale is guaranteed to lose at the end. Good you make money now but its just a terrible strategy. 10 in a row is an actual lock due to Benfords law (and practically it really isnt that hard) and you can't take that.
Iāve tracked enough bets over time that I regularly see strings of 10 losses in a row on a Sportsbook. OP getting roughed up one day.
Cold streaks are real. If ur doing martingale the gods will punish and wipe everything you have made at some point 5 straight losses aināt shit. You will absolutely lose 10 straight at some point. Itās probably more likely to happen than not. Happens to me all the time and itās no sweat Why donāt you just increase your unit size and make flat bets and be disciplined? If youāre willing to drop 20k on a martingale āstrategyā just make ur unit size $200. Will prob make more Iām bad at math but I feel like this is survivor ship bias. You say you are up 50%, but isnāt that pretty much the bare minimum when you are double down on every bet? Youāre either up 50% or down 100% generally speaking Not trying to be a dick bro but this is not going to work out IF you do not take ur profit and change strategy at some point.
In theory, I like the idea of the martingale system with live betting a baseball game. Bet there will be a run scored on the first inning and if not continue until the end of the game. Of course there would be games with no score til extra innings but you could call it quits if it reaches the 10th and take the loss for the day. Iām guessing the major hurdle would be the odds changing as the game goes on. Iāve never tried this but it sounds intriguing to me.
It always sounds like a good strategy. But almost always people find a way to lose so many games they get taken out . .
MLB season Iām going to live by the Baltimore orioleās money line/ run line especially with there run line being + money both games this season how could I not
I did it with Pete Alonso home runs last year I think I was up about 800 and he had an injury and I stopped. Was a lot of fun though. I would start at 5 and double each day a Homer wasnāt hitā¦ I may start again just with a smaller starting bet..
It's the same you also. But I lost about $150 in 2020. Maybe I will try it today. Starting with just $7.
150$ ššš
I meant how l lost in the martingale method. Just every I bet, I was betting ended up losing.
There will without question be a stretch where every bet you LOVE loses and youāll lose your entire bankroll doing this.
just admit it is -EV and you do it bc you find it fun. Then we wouldn't have a problem; your money, you're free to spend it how you like. The issue is that you seem to be encouraging others to try to make money using a martingale, and we don't want to see people fall into that trap
Gotcha, yeah I was more asking if someone else saw similar success or what tweaks they made. Noted.
You didn't ask about tweaks at all in the initial post; in any case, it would also be good to clear that tweaks would just modify how -EV this is, not somehow make it +EV. That you were "asking if someone else saw similar success" is kinda my point; I don't know what you intended the effect of that question to be, but in effect, if naive gamblers stumble into a thread like this and see a bunch of people saying how the martingale has worked for them, you're gonna be creating converts
It's not like this is a new thing. It has a name and has been around for forever. We know it's not a great idea. Dumb post honestly. Asking if there are others having similar success and about tweaks? Just go read some shit, or did you already? And it told you it was a bad idea.
Its genius and great dont listen to the haters
ššš
I like to Martingale Tennis points when the opponents are kinda close in talent. The underdog for each set will almost always take at least one point. But I'm talking like 50 cents starting bet.
I am 7/11 on baseball bets. I take the game props score. Typically do both teams over 2.5 or 3.5. This gives me a +120 or so. It doubles the winnings. So I am a little over even at this point. I also only place .10 bets. I am not losing the mortgage and family over betting, but I do find it to add extra fun to a game even if my winnings are only a stick of gum.
Homie over here betting less than he could find from looking for a minute on the sidewalk for loose change? Odd flex
And your point? Whatās wrong with not losing my life savings on something that is typically a win by the house? My approach has me up $120 in the last year. Itās not much but itās not a loss.
My point is that most peoples free time is worth more than your average bet size for whatever amount of time it takes you to do all of that. Or 120$ for the total over the year. To each their own.
How much you make typing out these comments? ..... let's not act like what one does in their free time should be or is usually a calculation of financial utility. People play video games, scroll social media, listen to music, read books, meditate. Putting a dollar sign on what one does in their free time is kinda useless. Some people just bet for entertainment and don't need a lot of money riding on it to get that entertainment. Being able to do that shows a lot of discipline imo.
I profusely apologize for having an opinion. Excuse me while I go do hours of research and place some nickel bets at the highest +EV I can find Thank you for your service š«”
The problem is not that you have an opinion, itās that the opinion doesnāt hold up to scrutiny.
Again, I apologize for having a different viewpoint. Can I get back to my research now..... Please?
Apologizing for something irrelevant to the issue is just passive-aggressive. If your contrition were genuine, youād apologize for holding onto an unconsidered opinion.
Do you offer life coaching services? I'm clearly in need of them
I used this method with a $25 unit. Kept everything in a notebook by split by sport so even if the sport was different i could stomach an unprecedented losing streak It was fun and profitable for a while but trust me when i say you will find out. Havenāt been daily betting since December since when i did, fuck around and find out Also once you start losing and you get up there in price going back down to the single unit wins/profit seem like nothing at all once you just survived the $1000 bet and that adrenaline rush I still use this method sometimes and at the casino but havenāt been betting much. Just donāt think its fool proof. Just my two cents
Trust me.. It won't end well.. It works 99% of the time but when it loses. Ur f***d.. I did $1 bets and still lost thousands š
Jeez how many fucking bets you lose in a row ššš
Just as many as you're going to at some point š„“
Yeah, definitely!
I turned 1k into 10k in a week or so, cashing out because Iāve been doing this a while and know myself, Iāll lose it all if I keep going. Will try again in a few months
What unit size?
I use this method as well and have been pretty successful last couple years. I select a few NBA stars and bet their over every game. Double amount every time he goes under. I stop betting on last winning bet if there are under 12 games to go in season.
so youāre up $10 lol
I see what you're saying, but you're assuming his $20 initial bet was his starting "bankroll." If he started with 10k and is up 5k that's up 50%. Him starting at 20 is smart. With that starting point he's saying he can afford to lose up to an $80,000 bet if he loses 12 in a row.
yah and āifā my aunt had balls sheād be my uncle
Martingale works until it doesn't. And then you are fucked.
I thought this until I was at 5k down and finally gave up when the next 5k bet lost.
Sports?
If you did the 10k bet you would have been back on brother
lmao
Damn you're probably right
I bet college basketball, with an edge, and I'm very profitable. That being said, I've lost over 15 bets in a row before, at roughly 50% implied probability. You will eventually lose everything with this strategy.
So you flipped a coin and got tails 15 times. That takes skill.
I'm placing about 10000 bets a season, it's bound to happen
10000 sheesh. Impressive. Why so much volume? Genuinely curious.
There are about 8000 D1 NCAA basketball games per season. I bet live in-game only. I'm able to find an edge on average once a game roughly. Some games I might have 3 or more bets, some games I might have none. The reason for the volume is just basically, because I can. No reason not to bet as much as you can if you have an edge. I keep the bets on the smaller side too because larger bets automatically tend to trigger an inspection by the book, so the volume is necessary.
What do you mean by finding an edge
I'm able to identify a particular bet, usually on the full game side or total, that is mispriced at a particular sportsbook at some point while the game is ongoing.
Book limits my man.
The thing thatās so dangerous about the martingale is how quickly your bet size increases with a loss streak. But Iām not sure you know what the martingale is based on your post / some comments or are just totally blind to how devastating of an approach it can be You say your starting unit is $20 - 6 losses in a row and your bet would already be over $1,000. (Youād have lost the 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640). I understand that nobody thinks theyāll actually lose 10-15 in a row (tho it can absolutely happen) it doesnāt need to get to that point to already be burying. 5-6 losses in a row is extremely likely to happen at some point and ask yourself if you like the idea of having to bet over 1k just to net $20 And as a btw, if you do happen to lose 10 in a row that puts you down over 10kā¦.
This lmao
I Martingaled online blackjack from like $5 to $1,000. Stopped the bleeding and called it lesson.
Luckily I got to learn this with VR money on my occulus. Went on a run up to 30 million in poker and then somehow lost 30 straight nba bets to lose it all. Fake money but the lesson felt real because I was actually trying to win š
Online BJ is so rigged. Youāll have $100 down and get two face cards (20) and the dealer will go 4-4-3-3-Ace-6 (21) all of them are scams
Ah but you had that next one, for sure.
So you're up $10? I'm glad you have a bankroll of $200 to cover 10 losses..
$9.99!
I did this with tennis points for a while. Find a match where it's like +140 against the serve on both sides. It works until it doesn't lol. A lot of bets and a lot of stress for minimal profit. Really only works if you have unlimited money. But hey, have fun and entertain yourself.
Itās all about fun. Thank you
This doesnāt work if you donāt already have an edge. If you do have a legitimate edge, it could work in the long run, but so would straight unit bets.
Doesn't worth with an edge either. You'd run into liquidity issues trying to get down.
It works without an edge as long as you size your bets correctly so that a win covers all the losses and leaves you with a profit. The only limitation is bankroll and bet limits.
It works if you have unlimited money lol. Cold streaks happen, youāll lose your money eventually.
Quick story. Friend of mine deployed this strategy at the roulette table. Started with $300 and bet the table minimum ($10) on red or black. Didn't think he could lose more than five in a row. And for a long time, he didn't. He had fun and a lot of butt clench moments for a couple hours, but he was up a decent chunk of money. I went to play BJ for a short time, couldn't have been gone for more than 20 minutes. When I came back, I found him off to the side shaking his head. He held his hand out, showing me one single $25 chip he had colored up for. It was a great lesson for me. This strategy can and probably will work for awhile, but inevitably, it will lose.
I see what youāre saying but roulette is completely different from sports betting where you can research lines and use data and general knowledge of sports to make educated bets.
Fair point. I would counter to that by saying even the very best handicappers go cold sometimes
Absolutely they do but itās entirely possible to be profitable lifetime. I will also admit I didnāt know what the martingale strategy was until now and that shit is dumb.
Its most definitely not different
In what way is it not different? If youāre betting just black or red you have a 47.4% chance of winning. Cappers can easily maintain a 70% win rate. Thatās a huge difference.
On a even money line? Thatās not a thing
Nobody making educated bets is betting money line. Betting spreads and O/U at a 70% win rate is absolutely achievable.
70% Win rate at -110 odds = 33% Edge. You might be able to get an edge like this on a obscure sport with incredibly inefficient markets (I know of a beach volleyball capper that is in the range) but you simply cannot get en edge like this on any main markets, or even props. Highest prop edge Iāve seen is MAYBE 15%. If you do have information with an edge of 30%+ on a main market, for the love of god DM me LOL. I hope your getting a couple Kās down on this information.
This comment is so funny
I meant the odds given was evens. Not the market. Either way someone hitting 70% on those -110 is not as trivial as you make it be.
Do you know what trivial means? I said itās achievable which is just a completely different thing than trivial.
You used the word easily.
Yeah but trivial means āof little value or importanceā which I donāt believe that definition really applies here. So I donāt understand the point you are trying to make
I thought I came up with this strategy when I was like 10yrs old, and could do it on route when I got old enough.... lol, later I realized this was already a strategy (saw it in movies/tv shows) that had been tried, and when a color/bet loses 8-15 times in a row your busted, and even well before that your risking 1000s trying to just to get back even. Not a good strategy
Starting at $20 is pretty brutal as others have stated since the inevitable is bound to happen. Would otherwise be a fun strategy if your first unit is very very low stakes
Good point. Maybe drop to $5 for longevity sake.
How does it work? I have cash to burn
Itās basically gamblers fallacy where you think you canāt lose multiple games in a row. If OP wins his 20 dollar bet, he bets 20 dollars on the next game and the cycle restarts. If OP loses the bet, he bets 80 on the next game and then 160 on the game after that if he loses again, and keeps doubling it until he wins and nets 20 dollars
The odds of loss of each subsequent spin would be less and less as you go, not that you canāt lose, but wrong as you noted
How are the odds less as you go?
This is the dumbest thing Iāve ever heard
Youāll eventually hit your bet š¬ I cannot actually fathom losing 14 bets (-110) in a row that I do diligence on šššš not sure how down bad some of you are.
What would eventually happen is youād get on a losing streak where youād reach a bet size you couldnāt tolerate
Do/did "due diligence" on
Ok now what if you lose 14 in a row. Itās a statistical inevitability and I highly doubt you have $320k to make the next bet. And if that one loses since itās a 50/50? Youāre eventually going to hit this and lose everything
$20 is an insanely low unit for me betting wise. Iām cool stomaching a few thousand dollar bet it if it comes to that BUT Iād probably ditch the Strat when I lose 7+ in a row. Iām not stupid. Iām just stating itās been working for me lately. Thatās all. People are so sensitive on here. Itās funny.
This is how I use the strategy on my game of choice. I pick a ālevelā that Iāll stop at on a loss. My 10 cent unit can win via martingale 32 times before I lose 6 straight bets. When I lose 6 straight, I start all over again. If/when the bankroll allows, Iāll jump it up to a 7th bet. My problem is discipline. Once I have a bankroll I play other games. And lose.
Discipline is one of your two problems here, if you want to make money longterm. The other problem is using a martingale. In fact, if you had less discipline and abandoned the martingale, that would (ironically) help matters somewhat, ceteris paribus!
>Iām not stupid >uses martingale Pick one.
Last few months Iāve been making great money. Pays to be stupid baby!
Until you lose 8 straight and lose all the profits you make lmfao.
Stay tunedā¦
No need I know how this story ends. āPicking a line I LOVEā is also a great way to lose money lmao
Yeah, someone needs to fade me. One of us will get rich.
Fading you is just martingaling which, again, is dumb as rocks
So you'd ditch it which isn't the strategy. You wipe all your wins if you ditch it. It's picking up pennies in front of a steam roller, similar to betting heavy favorite MLs to win pennies. It works until it doesn't. I'll add that if $20 isn't much to you then why are you putting so much work into winning $20?
Because like many sports bettors, I plan on going on a solid losing streak š
Anybody who has a starting unit of $20 should never be betting $1k or $5k on a game. That is what you are going to end up doing. Stop doing this. $20 per game is within your means. Obviously $5k on a game probably is not..otherwise you wouldn't be betting $20 per game to start. Seriously. Stop doing this.
Let me live & have fun.
Hey, can you really stomach losing 10 in a row like you said in your post? The 10th bet would be about $10k...after you just lost the $5k bet on the 9th loss. Sorry for interrupting your fun. But I truly wasn't trying to stop you from living. I mean, I don't even know who or where you are so any efforts by me to try to kill you wouldn't go very far. Didn't mean to give you that impression.
Yah Martingale is tough unless you are betting a very small % of bankroll so please just bet responsibly! Personally not a fan but if it works for you then bol!
Canāt wait to come back in a few months āI lost 14 bets in a row using martingale. My wife divorced me. My children hate me and Iām 200k in debtā One a more serious note tho. Please stop. Youāre inevitably going to ruin your life. It is clear you do not know what youāre doing. You can talk about having a bankroll big enough but when it comes time to place that 20k bet or 40k bet, itās a different story. And if you manage to lose on the 11th day, 12th day, 13th day, what is the plan then? Youāre getting outperformed by a Hysa with 20k in itā¦
Brother, I am not low IQ. Sports betting is a hobby. Iām not going to go past 7+ losses most likely. I want my ego to get checked cause I donāt remember the last time I missed 6+ -110 bets in a row (that I do DD on) I have a spreadsheet tracker of over 200+ bets past few months and Iām at 57% right now.
let me make this easy for you. If you're hitting at that rate, decide on a standard bet size. maybe $100 or $200 (idk what your bankroll is) and just bet that same amount each time you decide on your pick... Instead of this double down sillyness to chase losses in an attempt to make it back despite the truly extreme risk. Just think about your risk reward. you're risking potentially thousans to be up under 100. whereas if you stick to a standard bet size, sure youll lose some, but if you truly are hitting at that rate you'll be drastically more in the green than whatever you're $20 increments is yielding you
I bet you will go past 7 losses.
Then fund an account properly with 1000 dollar units and you would be up big time. Instead you are up a few pennies. You will inevitably lose 7 in a row and be down 2.5k. Are your martingale winnings 2.5k as of now? Of course not. A 7 loss streak is nothing. It happens all of the time. Weāve all had the martingale revelation brother. It is a canon moment for most in this sub. Admit youāre dumb. That you donāt understand basic math and move on before you blow your entire life savings. Unless you have unlimited money it does not work. You have 80 comments telling you that youāre wrong. Wake up. Take your head out of the sand. Your overall win percentage means nothing. Just because you hit 57% does not mean you hit every other bet. There are streaks both ways. Youāre not just low IQ like everybody is saying. You are beneath that. Youāre delusional as well
āWeāve all had the martingale revelationā is a good way of putting it. Itās fun & it doesnāt work beyond short-term. That said, so long as you have a bankroll youāre OK to lose & donāt have a gambling problem, then enjoy and have the revelation as well.
> Brother, I am not low IQ Yeah no, you are. The way you speak about Martingale makes it clear. You're gonna cry like a bitch when you lose it all. Have fun with that!
Iād be happy to message you when that happens. Unless youād like to see my wins.
And your ROI is?
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So heās up $10 over a few months then?
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OP wagered 20$ per day and his maximum bet was 320 dollars(5 losses in a row). You think he earned$10 per day? No way. If somebody says 50%+ then it means they are unserious.
Is it me or +50% not a lot
50% ROI is insanity. A lot of the sharpest bettors arenāt even sniffing 10% ROI let alone 50
All good til you get limited
What sport? Are you using alt lines to avoid the vig?
Betting a -100 doesn't mean there isn't vig
All the lines i see start at -110.
If an alt line is -100, there is still vig
Why are game line odds set at -110 or -115 instead of -100?
Vig
So then how would you have rephrased my question in order to understand it in context. Because you are coming off like the āknow it all kidā from polar express.
I guess just "are you using alt lines"
If you and i were to have this conversation in person would you have understood what i was getting at? Or would you have retorted with the āevery bet has a vigā pulled up your pants and readjusted your glasses. You are what is wrong with reddit. You must be a blast at parties. Yes, every bet had a vig. You acknowledgeed the -110 is a vig line. The OP was talking about betting -100 bets.
Your question āare you using alt lines to avoid the vigā doesnāt make sense though. If you asked ME in person Iād be pretty confused, probably because of the word avoid. From your replies I think you mean is he using alt lines to account for vig so the lines are +100 and itās more a true double up Martingale strategy, and if so thatās a reasonable question and something I was wondering, too. But itās not what you asked, so maybe take a deep breath. And though there are worse gambling strategies out there, OPās is pretty bad and will, given enough time and bets, lose a lot of money.
Whatās the vig?
Vig is the % of a bet that a sports book gets from each bet. Thatās why you see odds like -110/-110 rather than 100/-100. Understanding vig, also called juice, is a super important part to being a profitable bettor, so be sure to read up on it! Lots of good sources you can google
Thank you. Idk why my comment got downvoted. So odd no pun intended
gotcha, thank you.
honestly if you put in research I think itās pretty smart and much harder to fail at than say black jack or roulette because you have more control over it at least
Blackjack can be mathematically beaten. Unless OP has infinite money(he doesnāt) and can guarantee to get the necessary money down(he canāt), martingale is a mathematical certainty to lose.
All it comes down to is, if the bets are +EV it will work well. If they're-EV then it's no different than betting black. And on top of that should probably aim for more like -200 bets. If you can run a -200 bet (implied hit rate of 66.6) but have + EV where your hit rate is 70%+, your chance of 5 wrong in a row is only .2%. Personally I'd probably go for something a little better than 50/50 if you're going to martingale. At the end of the day though if you're already +EV just doing straight bets is going to be the safest route
Iāll keep yall posted