######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Tuesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
All-Time POTD: 198-141-2, +56.5u, +7.2% ROI
**Today’s pick: Avalanche ML (+105) vs Stars** 3u
*Odds via Draftkings Sportsbook*
NHL 🏒🥅 9:40pm EDT
Rolling with the Avalanche tomorrow night as they take on the Stars in Dallas. The Avs are coming off a 4-1 series win over the Winnipeg Jets in which they dominated them in nearly every facet. They will be coming off a week of rest, while the Stars finished a grueling 7 game series yesterday and will be playing off of two nights rest. Now in the playoffs long rests can sometimes be a disadvantage as they can come out sluggish, and I’m hoping that isn’t the case tomorrow but it is something to be wary of. The Avs are a more offensive team and play a faster game than the Stars who pride themselves on defense, so we will have contrasting styles, but I think the Avs offense will be too much for the Stars D this series. The Stars do have the edge in goaltending as the Avs tendies have been shaky, but this is playoff hockey and anything goes. I have the Avs winning the series in 6 starting with a dub tomorrow night.
For all plays follow me on X @ DrMoneyline
Also predators had 11 days off and looked terrible their first game back in playoffs, now they are not as good as a team as the AVS but still was a factor.
i like the Avs in this spot too, but i was hot on the Panthers tonight and we saw what happened there. I'm sprinkling this play, but treading lightly in Game 1's when a team has been resting for a week and the other coming off a Game 7 victory in the future.
𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝: 17-4
𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤: MLB Baseball \\\\ Dodgers \\\\ -2.5 runline \\\\ even
𝐁𝐞𝐭: 1u to win 1u ......... 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐬: +8.95
𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞: Yamamoto has been lights out for LA, but Cabrera has been bad -- even against mediocre hitting teams -- and the Dodgers are ***much*** better than mediocre.
https://preview.redd.it/xqbe2cukzwyc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=abf5dbad9ea519e64107e13351ffa6ad297bd6ce
Is this the right bet? Sorry still trying to understand run line
even = +100 (or -100, which is mathematically the same, but it's always represented as +100) or 2.0.
It means you win profit equal to your stake. +110 is "plus money", +100 is "even money".
**Pick Record: 12W - 2L (Push: 1)**
**✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅**
**Previous POTD: Crystal Palace Over 16.5 Total Shots @ 1.72 ✅**
**I apologize for the sweat…. 5 shots at half, 18 Shots total.**
**Today’s POTD: Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5 corners @ 1.56 ✅**
**Game: PSG VS Borussia Dortmund**
**League/Time: Champions League / 3:00 PM**
Just feel like odds on this are a bit generous, Borussia have a one goal lead and know that that will not be enough to see them through to the finals and should gun for goal and use Sancho to attack the lines. They've played 11 Champions League games this season and have covered this line in 10/11 of those games.
Dortmund have played PSG 3 times this season already and have covered this line each time, managing 7, 4, and 4 corners.
**Side note: Please bet responsibly!**
**Coffee Link:** [**https://buymeacoffee.com/squareprintt**](https://buymeacoffee.com/squareprintt)
**Only adding for those asking, everything and anything is appreciated!**
Varies by league, but ~10 total is the average in the Champions League and skews a bit toward the home team having more.
Dortmund average like 5 per game on the season, but books might be anticipating a more defensive approach with the 1-0 agg. lead as an away side in a knockout round.
Oof. Ironically, that corner (that they didn't really deserve) probably hurts the chances of getting 3 corners given they scored on it and now lead 2-0 in aggregate. But maybe they'll get another random one on a breakaway
Edit: never mind! Let me put some more reverse jinx into the world for those of us on o3.5. They will absolutely not get another one.
Edit 2: Let's go!
Congrats on the W. If anyone sees that dumbass "nachoshd," tell him I send my regards. This idiot talking shit and then deletes his comments when he's wrong.
tailed you with Crystal Palace and what a sweat it was. Had Crystal Palace ML so that helped me digest the ending there. I'm on PSG and the over for this game. Rooting for some Dortmund corners for you and this thread though.
Noticed these odds as better than what you posted so just want to confirm this is the correct bet
https://preview.redd.it/rsezsau6uzyc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=13e735d1a54ba5d8f4fb692fe01558aef7e0031c
POTD RECORD: 64-35
Last POTD: Jalen Brunson U8.5 Ast ✅
Todays POTD: **PJ Washington O10.5P @1.71**
Form: ✅✅❌✅❌
NBA (Dallas Mavericks)
As predicted my dawg focused more on scoring and the passing lanes were shut down by the Pacers im happy my Knicks won too
We move fellas and I’m targeting Mr Capital, first game of the series so not really sure what to expect but what I do know is that OKC allow tons of Corner 3’s, MOST this season and that’s PJ’s speciality he’s always lurking over there and has Avg 3rd most corner 3 FGA in the post season and top 5 FGM, also top 10 in corner 3 FGA since traded to Dallas. So our guy should get some points from three, he’s also a threat on the drive and in transitions so there should be plenty of opportunities
• 1/2 against OKC since joining the Mavericks
14 & 6 points, in the game he had 6 points he was 0/7 from three just unfortunate but crazy volume
• Over in 20/L31 with 30+ minutes
• Avg 35.3 minutes in the playoffs
• 21/24 with 35+ minutes
Volume should be there, it’ll be up to PJ to cash us out, let’s go mf feed your boys man
Tail or fade, still cheeks
https://preview.redd.it/09stzjhzixyc1.jpeg?width=2817&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=baf58cd5698d892183124dc68a032e2bc604889b
Another sweep in the props section 🧹
Tailing broski!!!! I like Luka o3.5 trey bombs too. For -118 on DK. This is his bounce back (hardley call it a bad series lol) series imo. Big games from him. Thanks always big dog!
Record: 12-5 (+8.24 units)
✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌
Last POTD: NY Knicks -6
Today’s POTD: Boston Celtics TT over 56.5 first half
Odds: -115 on DK for 2 units
NBA/ 7:10pm ET/ Cleveland Cavs at Boston Celtics
Knicks win a great gritty game but don’t cover the spread. Game went back and forth and I end up with my first 2 game losing streak…
The Cavs just finished a grueling series with the Magic. They now head to Boston to play the top seeded Celtics. If I can get this line under 60 I’m gonna play it all day. If you have tailed me at all and read any of my write ups Boston is the best 1st half team in the NBA. They also average right around 60 in the first half and around 63 in the first half at home. They shoot a ton of 3’s and get baskets in the transition. They have a ton of options on the offensive end and any number of players could get hot. They cleared this line in 4/5 games against the Heat in the first round. Let’s hope for a bounce back! Tail or fade….Bet responsibly
Tip options in profile. Any tips are appreciated and not expected. I’m glad I found this group to try and win some money together. Best of luck!
Love this pick. Spotted this last night and got it. Lines at 57.5 for -105 on DK now. Has gone up. But I like their TT for the game too at 112.5. Celtics avg 123 at home all year.
POTD Record: 50-27-1 +46.40🔥
Last Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 (-110) vs Orlando Magic
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌❌❌✅
Today's Pick: Phillies ML (-135) vs Toronto Blue Jays
Good bounce back! Early looks, nothing stood out to me on NBA. Time to start getting into a flow in Baseball!
P.S I hate that I can’t post parlays on here, i have cashed a few POTD that i couldn’t post, im sorry!
Phillies are the hottest team in baseball with the best record. They have won 17 of their last 20, 9 of their 10, 6 straight, and 10 straight at home. They have a +58 run differential over that time (+2.9 runs per game) over the last 20. On the other side, we have the Toronto have lost 4 of 5, 7 of 10, and have a run differential of -37 on the season. Sanchez, who will be on the mound for Philly, has had a slow start to the year. Tomorrow he will face off against a Blue Jaysoffense that ranks 25th in MLB with 255 total hits (on a .226 batting average). The squad also slugs a collective .362 (23rd in MLB) with 30 total home runs (23rd in MLB). This a great spot for him to find his groove facing a Blue Jays team who is 3/13 as an underdog. Let’s back Philly to take care as the best team in baseball right now, this time in the MLB!
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️
P.S i may or may not be in attendance for this game… Have a work trip in Delaware for the week and have the night available to drive to the game! 🤫
[Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24)
[PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
I was thinking Phillies too. But DK hasn’t given me the 2 runs up and you win promo yet today.
Does anyone know if they stop giving the promo if you’re winning? I’ve hit the last 4-5 lol
**MLB POTD RECORD:** 31-13
**2024 MLB record:** 20-5
**Last POTD:** Mets ML
**Today's POTD:** Houston Astros F5 ML vs New York Yankees
**Baseball | MLB | 7:06 PM ET**
Bitter sweet win honestly. Great that we got back on track but frustrated that that Hollywood picks guy stole my picks AND my write up gets credit for the win but I am here to help you guys so I am gonna stay put but post the write ups later so they don't get stolen again lol. If you want pick earlier you can message me.
Anyway onto today's play.The thing I love here is the starting pitching matchup but the bullpen situation worries me so I am going to go with first five innings instead of full ML. As always I am using stats from the past 21 days.
The Yankees batting average splits are not great. .They 228 at night (17^(th)), .231 at home (21^(st)), and .176 on Tuesdays (30^(th)). The one split that does favor them is their .247 vs righthanders (6^(th)). However, I think this is an outlier of circumstances where that won’t matter and possibly have an adverse effect.
Despite being a righthander, Verlander has a spectacular .143 batting against vs lefties. For his career, his batting average against for lefties is 20 points lower than vs righties. The Yankees lineup features lefties Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, and Anthony Rizzo who have played a very significant role in that sixth place batting average vs righties. In terms of matchup analysis, Verlander might as well be a lefty so all right handed logic goes out the window. Aaron Judge is also hitting .162 in his career against Verlander (although he does have 3 HR).
The Astro's batting splits are not their best possible but they are definitely better than the Yankees are for today. They bat .243 at night (11^(th)), .254 on the road (8^(th)), .259 on Tuesdays (10^(th)), and .229 vs right handers (14^(th)).
Luis Gil is one of the most fascinating players in the league to analyze. The dude has absolutely electric stuff with a strike-out rate of over 30 percent. He also has awful control, with a league-worst 15.4 walk percentage. Gil has one of the worst strike percentages in the league (60%) but one of the best contact percentages (68%). Essentially, he relies on his limited strikes to avoid being put in play. He has been performing very well against teams that don’t walk a lot, like Baltimore and Tampa Bay, but has struggled against teams that don’t. The Astros are around league average walk percentage wise but they have by far the lowest strikeout percentage, swinging strikes, and sky-high contact percentage. They also only average three pitches per at bat, given how much better the Astros are than every other team in the league at not swinging and missing, Gil is going to have to have a tough time. His batted balls percentages ate league average. League average batted balls statistics should put someone within 30 points of the league average batting average on balls In play. Gil is is a very high 65 points below the league average meaning he has had a lot of good fortune likely due to the lack of balls being put in play. The Astros will likely increase the number of balls put in play significantly against Gil which could lead to him regressing to the mean.
The bullpen situation scares me that is why I am fading any full game ML bets. The Yankees have one of the best bullpens in baseball and have Clay Holmes fresh. Even if Gil gets shelled, the pen likely won’t add much to the damage. The Astros pen has been much more of a liability and have been used a lot. Josh Hader has pitched two days in a row when he's thrown over 60 pitches total. The only high leverage reliever on normal rest is Ryan Pressley who the Yankees have dominated throughout his career (.337 batting average against in 20 games). Also, when these two teams played during the first week of the season, the Astros bullpen blew multiple leads that ended up in Yankee wins.
**TLDR: Yankees in bad split situation, Astros are not. Verlander dominates lefties the Yankees have a very lefthanded-heavy roster, he also has great numbers vs Judge, Gil relies on swings and misses which the Astros rarely do, the ball being in play will take away his biggest weapon, The reason I am going first 5 and not the whole game is because I do not trust the Astros bullpen at all but very much trust the Yankees bullpen to maintain however may runs they inherit.**
Tips $chuteboxhero on cashapp
I also made a spreadsheet with all my picks of the day as well as my record picking games with individual teams as well as my records with O/U, money line and run line picks in case you are interested when considering tailing. See below:
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing)
Let’s go chute , tailing and Mets pick came through clutch as an awful display of the nuggets had me taking a handful of Ls. I have to remind myself that it’s part of gambling, hopefully you are finding your mojo again and going on a heater :) , this whole community is a refreshing hobby. Have a great day win lose or draw 😀
https://preview.redd.it/xkddw5gqe2zc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=50bee954936eece643f657d53c236166decb3560
Which one is it? Cant find money line 😅
first one. 0.0 means ML so if the game is tied at end of 5th inning you get your money back. if you select -0.50 instead you lose if the game is tie at end of 5th inning. hope it helps.
Well, he seemingly looked at every metric except the obvious one, the series. How can it be a surprise when the yankees were already up 4-0?
This is the most classic 'can't see the wood for the trees' pick I have ever seen.
POTD Record 20-7
Last 5: ✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️
Last Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 ✅️
Todays Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 (win by 2)
MLB: LA Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins 7:10pm PST
Odds: -145
Unit: 5
Net units: +53.08
I don't post potd where the odds are like this, but I like, I really like.
Dodgers looked great in the 1st game vs. Marlins. I feel even more confident with Yamamoto pitching. Everything I said last write up but with more confidence.
If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
**Record:** 5-2
**Net Units:**+11.1u
**ROI:** +53.66%
**MLB** Giants v Rockies
**Last Pick**: Guardians @ -122 (3u✅️)
**Today’s Pick**: Giants @ -164 (3u)
**Write Up**: The Giants have a slightly better offense, slightly better defense, and a much better starting pitcher in this matchup. Kyle Harrison has been pitching well and Dakota Hudson has been destroyed his past 3 games and Giants hitters have had a lot of success vs him as well.
Record: 5-6
Return: -1.44 units
Last 10 (new > old): ✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅
Last pick (4/18/24): Tennis - Barcelona / Dušan Lajović ML ✅
* First set was a sweat, but Lajović was able to hang in there and push it to a tiebreak and save 4 set points to win the tiebreak 12-10. He was able to then take it easy in the 2nd set and turn on the jets in the 3rd.
5/7/24:
Sport / League - Tennis / ATP Mauthausen Challenger (Clay) - Round of 32 (Round 1)
Match - Joel Josef Schwaerzler (AUT) vs. Mats Rosenkranz (GER)
Time - 4:00am PDT / 7:00am EDT / 11:00 GMT \~9 hours from post
**POTD: Joel Josef Schwaerzler (AUT) -1.5 set spread (-110)** \[Bovada\] ✅
Wager Size: 3U (Risking 3.3 units to win 3.0 units)
Write Up:
This is for the SET spread, not the game spread. This is the same as Schwaerzler winning 2-0.
Schwaerzler is an 18 year old Austrian just starting his career. He played last year in M15 events, and just started playing in clay court challengers last month. He’s much better than his current rank of 743; he just hasn’t played the matches yet to get the points. He crushed JJ Wolf (Rank 102; the #1 seed of the Savannah Challenger) 6-2, 6-1. Now he’s coming home to Austria and getting a wildcard entry into the main round of the challenger.
Rosenkranz plays in M15, M25 and Challenger events. He doesn’t produce any particularly good results against higher ranked players. He’s been hovering in ranking between the mid 300’s and high 500’s for the last 3 years, currently at 447. He had to play in 2 qualifying matches for this event over the last 2 days, both lasting over 2 hours each. He will not be as fresh as Schwaerzler.
When Schwaerzler wins, he almost always wins in 2 sets. Of the 18 matches he’s won, 16 have been in 2 sets. The last 14 matches he’s won have been 2-setters.
BOL!
*Update: W* ✅ *Schwaerzler wins 2-0 (7-6, 6-4). He saved a set point in the first set and got broken his first game in the 2nd set, but was able to pull it through when he needed to. Rosenkranz' 10 double faults didn't hurt either.*
**POTD Record: 34-25**
Last 10: ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌
Last pick: Wolves vs Nuggets | 7:00 PST | Nikola Jokic OVER 41.5 Points and Rebounds (-120) Bet365 1u ❌
Yeah, this one was frustrating. I will never be one to make excuses but this wouldn’t have been my POTD had I know Gobert was going to be out. Wolves defensive plan on Jokic completely changes without him on the court. He was doubled teamed every possession and forced to be a passer. Sorry to those who tailed.
**Today’s pick: Cavs vs Celtics | 4:00 PST | Jayson Tatum OVER 9.5 Rebounds (+100) BetMGM 1u** ✅
Look, idk what it is about the playoffs but this man is an absolute rebounding machine this time of year.
- Last 10 playoff games avg 10.4
- Last 20 playoff games avg 10.8
- Hit last 8/10 playoff games
- Avg 11.4 vs Cavs last 5 games
- 3/3 this year vs the Cavs (10,11 and 13)
This is just a pure numbers play and I honestly feel like this is the one stat category where we can really trust Tatum to be consistent. We also get a Cavs team off a tough 7 game series so hopefully we can get some tired legs and a lot of missed shots! Get us back on track Tatum!!
**Belle's Pick of the Day**
**Record:** 7-1-0 (Win-Loss-Push) ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
**Last POTD:** PIT Pirates v LA Angels Under 8.0 (-110) ✅
**Balance:** +3.5 Units
**Today's Pick: CHI White Sox v TB Rays Over 8.0 (-105) (MLB, 3:50PM PST, Wager: 0.5 Unit)**
**Why This Pick?**
Today’s pitchers come to the mound with a combined average ERA of over 10 runs; White Sox pitcher Michael Soroka (0-3) carries an ERA of 6.48, while Rays pitcher Zach Eflin (1-4) has an ERA of 4.17. Not only have Chicago and Tampa Bay hit the Over total in 3 of their last 4 games, but both of today’s pitchers carry a losing record. I’m going to wager this game sees plenty of runs, and back the Over to cash friends.
--
[Buy Me a Coffee ☕️](https://buymeacoffee.com/coffeeforb)
Record: 25-10 | Net: +10.37U | Streak: 1W
Last pick: Aaron Gordon [Under 0.5] 3 pointers made (-105) ✅
Twolves defense looks incredible. He bounced back in game 2 but look for him to struggle on the road.
POTD: Daniel Gafford [Over 15.5] points+rebounds +assists (-140)
DAL @ Okc | 9:30 PM ET
Summary: Gafford will be relied upon for 20+ min a game this series with Kleber out indefinitely and the Thunder vulnerable to physical bigs. He had 19/9 in just 17 min off the bench and 19/15/1 in a start without Luka playing. Thunder were abused in the limited minutes Valenciunas was able to play and I don’t believe they will be able to run Gafford off the floor as easily.
Record: 30W-32L
Net Units: -4.03u | ROI: -2.37%
CS2 | ESL Pro League Season 19 | 19:30 / CET
Pick: Faze -1.5 vs Monte, 3u @ 1.87
I think taking one look at the player ratings for this event says enough. Faze's worst rated player is ropz at 1.04 whereas Monte has Gizmy sitting at a meagre 0.92 and ryu at a 1.01 rating. That isn't surprising, considering they just came off Monte's academy team, but that's not something that you want versus one of the best teams in CS2.
When it comes to form in their respective groups I think Faze also looked a lot more reliabe, even though they did lose to Astralis, they also beat a lot more formidable teams than Monte did. And while Monte did make it into the playoffs they did it struggling every inch of the way. They only beat teams like Forze and Furia whom are both in really bad spots with their roster right now.
When it comes to veto Faze'll probably pick Nuke, which should be a comfortable win for them. Monte usually opts for Mirage, but they might decide to try to punish Faze with an Anubis pick. That shouldn't be a problem, since Faze had a week off and Karrigan said in an interview that they'd work on the weak spots in their map pool. That's why I think Faze 2-0 at these odds is a strong bet.
Best of luck everyone!
Love this pick. Monte is only in the playoffs because their group was terrible. Only thing that sucks is no crowd but Faze should probably roll anyway.
**POTD** Record: 15-1-15
BOLTON VS BARNSLEY
Date: 07 May 2024 at 21:00
BET ON: Both teams to score- Yes
Odd: 1.70
- Barnsley are missing Robbie Cundy and Josh Benson.
- Bolton are missing Jon Dadi Bodvarsson and Carlos Mendes Gomes.
- The Toughsheet Community Stadium is Sold Out.
- Wanderers will be aware that a 4-0 advantage was overturned by Sheffield Wednesday in last season’s League One play-offs, and for a spell in the second half on Friday night Barnsley provided evidence that they can fight their way back into the contest with the right encouragement.
“Barnsley showed in that 15-minute spell that they can put you under heavy pressure and we want to avoid that if we can. So, we need everybody to help see this through. We need to do our job.” Said coach Ian Evatt.
“It will be a similar gameplan but we have to get that early goal and put them on the back foot. We have to cut out the mistakes and try to attack them as best we can.” Said Barnsley interim boss Martin Devaney.
- The pressure is off for the Whites as they go into the game as heavy underdogs, against Bolton looking to control the first half to avoid conceding a goal and fast in transition. We expect both teams to score.
POTD Record: 18-7
Net Units: +24.95u
Game: CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | CCT Europe Series 2 | 5:00 (UCT-5)
Last Pick: **Endpoint ML (-125)** vs. SINNERS 5u**❌**
Today's Pick: **Permitta ML** (-130) vs. Enterprise 2.6u
[Match Page:](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2371888/permitta-vs-enterprise-cct-season-2-europe-series-2)
[Stream:](https://www.twitch.tv/cct_cs2)
**Writeup:**
-Gonna keep it short and simple today, I don't love this pick, this is a lighter play then normal. This is an elimination game and I am just going purely off the eye test here. Permitta have been bad but have looked competitive in a lot of games even when using a coach. They have looked relatively good against strong teams like Insilio BLEED and AMKAL. Enterprise have been trending downwards to me for a while, they basically rebranded PGE Turow, the roster over performed for one tournament and got a ton of overhype, and haven't been the same since. Enterprise are 2-8 in their last 10 matches while Permitta are 3-7.
-This is really going to be a mid off, I am choosing who I think is the slightly less mid team here in Permitta.
-Permitta and Enterprise have faced off 3 times h2h since March 2024, Permitta beat them 2-0 on March 3'd, lost 2-0 on April 3rd, and most recently beat them 2-1 on April 27th.
-Map Pool is close but I favor Permitta, Mirage/Ancient I give Permitta a decent edge on, Nuke is definitely an Enterprise favorite and a map I give them, Vertigo and Anubis are close to 50/50 for me with both teams struggling winrate wise on them. If I had to pick a favorite, I give Enterprise Vertigo and Permitta Anubis. Giving Permitta 3/5 of the maps which they should get 2 of them, as well as feeling better about Permitta winning their map pick.
Best of Luck!
Record: 10-7-0
Net Units: +7.5
ROI: 13.9%
Last Five: ✅❌✅❌✅
Last Pick: Dansby Swanson under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-155) for 3 units ✅
Event: Basketball | NBA| Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder 8:30PM CST
Pick: 1st Quarter under 55.5 total points (-104) on FanDuel for 3.0 units
Write Up: The Thunder averaged 24 points in the first quarter in their first round sweep of the Pelicans, and that was skewed by 35 points in one game. They put up 17 points in Game 1 after a 7 day break between it and the end of the regular season. This time, the Thunder have had an 8 game break before Game 1 against the Mavericks.
The Mavericks averaged 23 points in the first quarter in their first round series. Also skewed by Game 6, which they scored 34 points.
POTD Record: 15-6
Last POTD: Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees - Soto over 0.5 hits @ 1.60 ❌
POTD: San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs - Chicago Cubs ML @ 1.75
Chicago Cubs have dominated in 11 out of their last 15 matchups against teams from the National League West. Shota Imanaga, the starting pitcher for the Cubs, has kicked off his MLB career with remarkable success. Holding an immaculate record of 5-0, the lefty boasts an outstanding ERA of 0.78. With 35 strikeouts and just four walks to his name, Imanaga has showcased remarkable control on the mound. Across six starts this season, he has conceded a mere three earned runs over 34.2 innings pitched. Additionally, Imanaga boasts a strikeout rate of 9.1 per nine innings, alongside an impressive 1.8 WAR and a stellar 1.03 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Cubs as a collective unit maintain a solid 3.75 ERA, ranking 13th in the league, and are limiting opponents to a .233 batting average, placing them 12th overall. Conversely, the San Diego Padres struggle with a team ERA of 4.28, positioning them 21st in the league, and their opponents are hitting .241 on average, placing them 18th. The Padres' recent loss of Joe Musgrove to the injured list has further weakened their starting rotation, adding to their challenges.
Always remember to never bet with money you can't afford to loose, always tail with responsibility.
Just some points why i think this bet could lose, I would love to hear your take if you could provide me some pushback.
-San Diego are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs.
-San Diego are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Chi Cubs.
-San Diego are 6-2 vs lefties
-San Diego beat Cubs yesterday 6-3 both starting pitchers gave 0 runs, seems like bullpen might be an issue concern for cubs?
-Shota gave up 3 runs in 6 innings in his last outing at home vs the lowly ranked Miami
- R Vasquez is bound to have a bounce back game at some point, perhaps maybe this game?
Any thoughts? I was going to pick cubs but then i noticed this when researching. Thanks!
Thanks for the comment! For me, I am aware of the 6-2 Padres, but I dont like stats from recent seasons that much, different team, different situation, different season.
The Padres is the 4th worst team this season in batting against lefties (.201 avg) and when they meet one of the best ones, I'm feeling good here.
I indeed agree that his last outing at home was not the best, but the pitching last game vs the Mets with 7 innings pitched and only allowed 3 hits, 0 runs, I'm sold. And his total for the season is only allowing 22 hits and 5 runs in 34.2 innings. Impressive stuff.
For sure Vásquez will at some point bounce back, but in the pitching matchup here I favor the Cubs quite a lot. I dont like the Padres bullpen to much either.
For me I really like the value of the Cubs here. But thanks a lot for questioning the pick here, I would rather get some questions asked and try to answer my point of it, than people tailing blindly. What do you think, you favor the Padres here?
Tail or fade, good luck🤝
I am tailing for sure, thank you for your insight.
I think Vasquez will get hit for a few runs 2-4 perhaps and cubs do what cubs do from there on in with their bullpen hopefully being better than padres. I watched some tape on Shota, you're right he has been exceptional apart from that one game so i have confidence in him not giving up more than a run at most.
That was an interesting stat about Padres being 4th worst against lefties this season, i did not know that and that changes things.
Thanks also for taking my message positively, and best of luck as I too will be backing cubs!
POTD Record: 25-23-1 | Profit: -1.44U
NBA Record: 21-20-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0
L10 (new -> old): ❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅
Last pick: Donte DiVincenzo o3.5 Rebounds @ 1.80 odds ❌
Donte had 3 in the first half, making me feel real confident, then let us all down with 0 in the second.
Game: CLE Cavaliers @ BOS Celtics, 7:00 PM EST
Pick: **Sam Hauser o1.5 3pointers made @ 1.60 odds (DK) placing 2U** ❌
Write Up: Hauser hit in 3 of 5 in the series against the Heat, and hit in 8 of the last 10. He averaged 2.5 3pm per game this season. He went over 2 out of 3 games vs. the Cavs in the regular season. Cavs are 17th in the league out of 30 for opponent 3p%. BOL to those tailing, cheers!
**EDIT:** Jesus Christ... in 16 minutes Hauser shot the ball once (and missed), finishing with 0 points, 0 assists and 1 rebound. Bad beat by me, god damn.
Record: 6-4-0
Trailing record: ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌♻️❌
Balance: +0.99u / Avg odds - 1.81 / ROI: 9.9%
Last Pick: Marc-Andrea Hüsler -1.5 games vs Misolic @ 1.8 (Bet365) ❌
Husler got ruined. Horrible pick apologies. I got a few messages about this one and though I am sorry and lost money on this too, it is betting and I hope you are doing your own research and not betting more than you can afford.
Sport: TENNIS
Pick: Duje Ajdukovic / Francesco Passaro o22.5 games @ 1.80 (Bet365) ✅
Time: 7 May 19:00 AEST Event: ATP Rome
BOL and let me know if tailing!
** Record: 6-2 **
Last pick:
WTA Madrid:
Iga Swiatek tt u12.5 -120 🚫
Today’s pick:
WTA Rome:
Maria Carle -1.5s -160 vs Preston - 5:30am est 🚫
Recap + Write Up:
Gutty win by Iga and a quick and easy L for under bettors. On the bright side, we’re officially due.
I’ll keep it short today because I’m pressed on time. Today’s pick, we head to Rome to take Maria Carle in straights vs Preston. This is a rematch from two weeks ago in Madrid where Carle won in straight sets. She’s been on an absolute tear on clay this season with a 15-2 record and a couple lower level titles. In Madrid, she ran through the first 4 rounds (including qualies) without dropping a set before ultimately going down to Ostapenko in the 3rd round. She’s in great form and flying up the rankings. Her opponent for today’s match is Taylah Preston, who is fairly new to the tour at 18 years old and has extremely limited experience on clay with only 7 career matches on this surface and a 2-5 record. With 276 career clay matches across all levels and recording a 186-90 record in them, I expect Carle’s form and experience to come through and get us back on track. LFG Carle 🇦🇷
❄️🏦
beer me:
3PwJ3CW5p9oJZKmX8F2eePqWJEkqbNk7cu
https://cash.app/$champagnekevy
POTD record 0-0
POTD: Orioles -1.5 @-135
Been on here for about 2 yrs finally dropping my nuts 🥜 Nothing much to say here Orioles are nice this year. Putting our faith in Corbin once again! I’ll never fade the orioles!! Oh and the Nationals are trashola!!!
2024 record: 1-2
Last POTD: Padres vs Cubs: Total Runs o7.5 +105 ✅
Today's POTD: Cavaliers vs Celtics: Jayson Tatum o9.5 Rebounds -105 (Hard Rock Bet)
Basketball | NBA | 7:00 PM ET
Finally got a win on the board with the Padres vs Cubs game. Padres bats have been so consistent lately. They got a ways to go to catch the Dodgers but they are easily going to hold 2nd place in their division playing like this.
For today’s pick I’m going back to basketball and going to pick a more safe bet. Pretty simple, Tatum getting 10 rebounds. He’s averaging 10.4 a game in the post season. Regular season he averaged 8.1. It’s a home game, game one of the series, Tatum should be firing on all cylinders. The Cavaliers barely scraped by against the Magic and the Celtics are just a much more complete team. I think we are going to see the Celtics dominate both offense and defense. I’m actually surprised on the lines for Tatum on rebounds as well. -105 seems like a steal.
Good luck to all of you on your picks today!
POTD Record: 4-3-0
L10: ❌❌✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Denver Nuggets -5.5
nuggets bout to get swept fr fr
Fade of the Day: Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder/Total under 218.5 @ 1.93
I must be insane for taking Under on these teams with really good offense and players like Luka, Kyrie, and Shai. But during their first round series, both teams showcased their defense instead with Mavs holding Clippers to an average of 99.5 ppg and OKC allowing only 82.75 ppg from the Pelicans. I expect both teams to again try to win with their defense.
Record: 10-5 (+2.68U)
Previous pick : Napoli O4.5 SOT - 1.76 (1u) ❌
4 SOT in the 2nd half but 0 in the first half, annoying L
Form : ❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅
Botola | 9:00PM CET
Pick : RS Berkane ML - 1.67 (1u)
Match : RS Berkane - MAT Tetouan
Reasoning : Berkane is in great form and have been great at home only losing 1 in 12 games, and conceding only 7 goals. Tetouan struggles to score away from home with only 11 goals in 12 games, expecting a low scoring game but Berkane to come out on top.
Record 2-4
Last 5: ✅❌❌✅❌
Last Pick: Crystal Palace vs Man United /ML Crystal Palace @ 2.25 bpremium✅
Todays Pick: PSG vs Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund to reach the final
2 Units
Units: -4.19
UEFA Champions League Soccer
PSG vs Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund are a tournament team this season and have had a great season in the Champions League so far. In the last round they came through as underdogs against Atlético Madrid, more than deservedly, and also showed in the first leg that they have what it takes to beat Paris. Dortmund has very good counterattack players in Sancho and Adeyemi. Paris has to score two goals and will have to take some action.
That's why i believe that Dortmund will ultimately reach the next round.
POTD R : 6-1
Last Pick : Rangers ML vs A’s -W
Todays Pick : Yankees ML vs Astros (-122DK) 1U
Info : MLB - 6:05P
Write up : Welp no free game of the day on the MLB app today but that won’t stop us from making a pick. Today i’m on the Yankees, i’ll get into some more statistical reasoning but this is more of a “do you ever get that feeling” kind of day. Just watched the Knicks get one for the city an I expect the Yankees to keep this rolling. The bronx are loving this shit right now an so am I.
We’ve got two good arms on the mound today with Verlander being 1-2 on the year with a 2.08 ERA an 1.15 WHIP, he’s been about 50/50 against this team all time but with inflammation in his shoulder I find it hard to be able to put my faith in him fully as well as Stros in general. Gil on the other hand has looked pretty solid so far being 37th in K’s on the season, going 2-1 on the year while posing a 3.19 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP.
I feel this will come down to the bats being hot or not. When looking at the statistics for offense they matchup pretty evenly with the Astros taking a few areas such as ba% an producing more walks causing arms to get shortened but the Yankees take important areas such as runs batted in, obp%, while holding opponents to a .216 ERA. I expect the Yankees to come out performing well an continue this winning streak especially against a team they swept early in the year.
BOL my fellow degens, let’s stay hot!
*KBO Record: Overall 221-229-14** (Streak WW, Last 10: 5-5) Down 9.27u over 464 KBO picks, 49.1% success rate, -2.06% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 17-19-0, 47.2% success rate, Down 0.65u, -1.80% ROI)
**Last:** NC +142 at SSG (NC won 8-6.)
NC's bats stayed hot and SSG's starter struggled. All according to plan.
**Pick:** Doosan at Kiwoom **First 5 Innings Under 5.5 -110**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
Not in love with today's slate as two games should get rained out and the other three featurd teams sitting as roughly -200 favorites.
We're trying a little over/under today. Kiwoom's dome has traditionally depressed scoring. In 4 fames this month, Kiwoom and Dooszn are the two lowest scoring teams. And in April, they both ranked in the bottom half of the league.
Doosan's starter has been very good in 3 of his last 4 starts. Kiwoom's starter has just 2 starts, but in his last, he held his opponent yo 1 run in 5 innings.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Record: 6W-4L-0P ✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌
Net Units: +2.4 units
Last Pick: 5/6 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Kansas City Royals; over 8.5 runs ❌
Watching Pasquantino ground out into two double plays with runners in scoring position both times was extremely frustrating🤦♂️ I coulda went up there and struck out and had a more productive at bat than him😂 first back to back Ls
Today’s Game: MLB baseball | Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 4:07pm EDT
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 RL | -148 DraftKings | 3 units
Write Up: Not much explaining to do for this one. The Dodgers are rolling rn and the Marlins are terrible… I expect them to win by a large margin with Yamamoto on the mound and the offense producing the way they have been.
Expecting this to be a popular play today but will be taking it as well since I need a bounce back! Good luck to all!
POTD Record: 20-12
Baseball / MLB / 7:45 EST
Pick: New York Mets ML -104
Write Up:
All picks are based on team wrc+ splits and pitcher expected stats.
Butto is pitching better than Miko and NYM are stronger on offense than STL. Mets are looking to get back to .500.
POTD Record: 141 wins / 84.5 losses
Event: Football > Champions League > **Paris Saint-Germain v Borussia Dortmund** (starting in 1 hr)
Pick: **Under 3.75 goals** @ 1.75
This is a 2nd leg elimination game and goals line seems to me a bit off based on the importance of the match (a place in the final). I expect it to be rather tactical than high scoring & open battle. GL!
**POTD | 26-17 | +9.45U**
Previous Pick: Miami Heat ML \[Risk 1.30u To Win 1.00u\]❌
**Today’s pick: Corbin Burnes o5.5 K's (+102 FD)**
Last 10:❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅
NFL 2-0 +2.0u MLB 8-2 +5.37u NBA 13-12 +.58u NHL 1-0 +2.0 NCAAB 3-3 -.4u
Corbin Burnes is likely to strike out more than 5.5 batters tonight for several reasons. Firstly, his strong track record this season showcases an impressive strikeout ability, with 41 strikeouts over just 35.1 innings pitched, averaging well over a strikeout per inning. His strikeout capabilities are further emphasized by his history of achieving six or more strikeouts in nine of his last ten road appearances against National League opponents. Burnes's effectiveness is largely due to his arsenal of pitches, including a devastating cutter and an excellent curveball, which have consistently baffled hitters. Additionally, his ability to command these pitches effectively in various counts allows him to finish off hitters and accumulate high strikeout totals. Considering these factors and his current form, it's quite probable that Burnes will surpass the 5.5 strikeout threshold in tonight's game against the Nationals.
POTD Record: 1-0 (+1u)
Recent form: ✅
Last pick: Mike Conley over 2.5 rebounds (-188 on FD) 1.88u
Today’s pick: Donovan Mitchell over 27.5 points (-120 on FD) 1.2u
NBA Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics 7:00 pm
Nice to see Conley give us a no sweat with an early third quarter cash in a blowout game.
Today’s pick I’m riding with Spida! He’s been hot recently and I’m looking for him to keep his mojo going. He hit the over in this line in both games against the Celtics this season. He has also hit this line in his last 5 Game 1s scoring 30 or more points in all of those. I expect him to come out trying to assert himself in this series and set the tone for the Cavs 💪
Tips: Venmo is cs1015 - In no way do I expect tips, especially so early on, but just want to put it here in case people tail and feel generous!
Best of luck to anyone who tails and to all those on the thread. Let me know if you’re tailing!!
**| Record: 6-3 | Net Units: 10.15u | ROI: 42.29% | Winrate: 66.67% | Avg. odds: 2.02 |**
**| eSport |** [ESL Pro League Season 19](https://www.hltv.org/events/7440/esl-pro-league-season-19) **| 16:15 CEST|**
**| Pick:** **BIG +1.5 Maps** \[vs. G2\] **|** ***1.710*** ***odds*** **|** ***3u*** **|**
**Reasoning:** When reviewing the head-to-head statistics, particularly in this match-up, it becomes evident that G2 should be considered the heavy favorite. Over the past two and a half years, BIG has struggled to secure a victory against G2, failing to clinch even a single map. Despite numerous close encounters, BIG has consistently come up short, losing every map played. However, today holds promise for BIG to break this pattern and secure a map win in this match-up. Here's why:
G2 boasts a superior lineup, with the core trio of NiKo, huNter, and Monesy exhibiting remarkable skill and precision that many teams find challenging to contend with. NiKo stands out as arguably one of the best riflers in the game's history, showcasing unparalleled raw talent and precision, effortlessly dispatching opponents with precision headshots. Monesy, a youthful prodigy, has seamlessly assumed the role of AWPer and currently stands as one of the best in the game, at least in my estimation. huNter, NiKo's cousin, adds depth to the team with his strategic prowess and consistent performance. Following Nexa's departure some years back, his return to the team during the winter break raised eyebrows, with rumors circulating that NiKo intended to assemble a full Balkan roster. While Nexa may not be a standout player, his wealth of in-game leadership experience is undeniable. However, the team's Achilles' heel lies in HooXi, whose subpar performance is puzzling given his prolonged tenure with the team. Sporting a lackluster 0.91 rating over the last three months, HooXi's inconsistent contributions, particularly in negative performances, raise questions about his continued role within the team. While he exhibits flashes of brilliance and occasional carry performances, such instances are rare and fail to align with the consistency and improvement essential for a successful team dynamic. Despite his aptitude for calling plays and leading the team in-game, his overall impact falls short. The reluctance of G2 to part ways with HooXi remains a perplexing aspect of their lineup, especially considering the inconsistency he brings to their gameplay.
Assessing BIG proves to be a nuanced task. The team oscillates between delivering textbook-perfect Counter-Strike and faltering with lackluster performances. Throughout the years, BIG has undergone numerous roster changes, experimenting with academy players and reverting to familiar faces. There was a period where BIG dominated as the premier Dust2 team globally. However, their results have remained middling, characterized by victories against formidable opponents like Astralis, G2, and FaZe juxtaposed with unexpected losses to tier 2 teams. At the helm of BIG is tabseN, whose leadership embodies the essence of the team. A formidable player with a strategic mindset and unwavering determination, tabseN's influence is pivotal. Despite a recent slump in form following syrsoN's return to the team, the likes of Krimbo and JDC offer promising prospects. JDC has showcased his potential as a formidable force when motivated, while Krimbo, in particular, has emerged as a standout performer, exhibiting exceptional prowess at just 21 years old. His impressive 1.23 rating in the ESL Pro League underscores his importance to BIG's success. While the German lineup has delivered satisfactory results since the winter break, occasional losses to lesser opponents detract from their stature as the preeminent German team. While defeat against tier 2 teams is forgivable on occasion, recurring losses are cause for concern.
While G2 undeniably possesses superior talent and raw skill, other factors such as map pool, current form, and rumors come into play. This is where today's match becomes intriguing. G2 eSports' current form has been lackluster, characterized by subpar performances throughout the ESL Pro League, despite narrowly clinching a playoff spot. Despite facing relatively manageable opponents, G2's struggles have been evident, with defeats to unexpected challengers such as Mongolz and M80 raising doubts about their firepower and consistency. The absence of camaraderie and enthusiasm among the players further compounds G2's woes, reflecting a lack of passion for the game.
In contrast, BIG has had ample time to prepare for today's encounter. Armed with the knowledge that G2 holds an 8-0 advantage in head-to-head matchups, BIG is poised to overturn this record. Today presents a golden opportunity for the Germans to capitalize on G2's weaknesses and secure their first map victory against them in a considerable amount of time. Krimbo, in particular, appears primed to lead the charge, buoyed by a wave of confidence and preparation evident in German interviews leading up to the match.
The veto process promises to be intriguing, especially given tabseN's recent statement expressing a preference for Inferno over Nuke. While Inferno traditionally served as BIG's permaban, recent weeks have seen them incorporate it into their map pool more frequently. G2's ban of Mirage seems inevitable, while BIG's likely choice of Vertigo aligns with their strengths and G2's weaknesses. G2's selection of Inferno further underscores BIG's opportunity to exploit their vulnerabilities, with Anubis potentially serving as the decisive battleground.
In summary, the stage is set for BIG to seize victory today. G2's current weaknesses, coupled with rumors of impending lineup changes, provide BIG with a window of opportunity to assert their dominance. If there ever were a day for BIG to clinch a map victory, it is undoubtedly today.
Record: ✅️❌️ 1-0-1
Net Units: +0
Previous Bet : SK Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg,
SK Sturm Graz Winn and over 1.5 was lost ( 1-1 )
Football, Turkish Cup Besiktas vs Ankaragücü 19:30 CET
Pick: Besiktas to Winn @ 1.60 (1 Unit)
Besiktas won 1-0
Write Up: Besiktas is in a great form especially at home. 5th in Turkish League plays against 14th. Ankaragücü only with 2 winns out of all away games. They played against each other on 19.4.24 and Besiktas won 2-0 at home. Result 1-0 Besiktas
That SK sturm pick was brutal. Red card 9 mins into the game is what screwed us. Otherwise, I think they definitely had that game in the bag.
Tailing today too though
POTD Record: 7-3-1
Previous POTD: Rudy Gobert o 13.5 RA - Push
Nuggets we’re garbage. Beating the lakers took everything from them apparently. With how trash they were with their shots, Gobert would’ve feasted and likely covered with ease. Too bad it voids
Today’s POTD: Jalen Williams o 4.5 assists(-130 on DK)
Basketball | NBA | Dal Mavericks vs OKC Thunder | 9:35 PM ET
Williams has been very active as a facilitator and passer for the Thunder this playoffs. He averaged 5 assists on 8.8 potentials in the first round. He also led the team in passes made. In 4 matchups against Dallas this season, he averaged 5 assists on 26 minutes. He’s been consistently getting over 30 mins in the playoffs, so with more minutes/playing time he should be more than capable of cashing for us.
Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
Edit: Jalen finishes on exactly 5 and cashes another POTD. 8-3-1 💵
POTD 5/7/24
Record 2-1 +5.2U
Last POTD: Lakers ML 5U
Today's POTD: OKC -3.5 2u @ 1.89
extra long rest and game planning for a mavs team that was barely surviving in a series against the clippers without their best option.
POTD Record: 0-0
Today's Pick: San Diego Padres ML
Odds: 2.15
Note: The San Diego Padres have shown flashes of brilliance this season, most recently with 6 runs in the sixth inning against the Cubs in their most recent encounter. I'm looking to see them find some more consistency in this game and put down the Cubs again to go up 2-0 in their series. Although the books have them as the dog in this game, I see a lot of value in this pick and think it's worth the risk.
**Record: 0-0**
**Net Units: -**
**ROI: -**
**Football** | **AUS NSW FFA Cup** | **4:30PM (GMT+8)**
**Pick:** Maitland Vs Charlestown City Blues - **Over 2.5+BTTS @ 1.66 (Paripesa)**
**Write Up:** Hello Guys, first time posting here so go easy on me please HAHAHAH. Anyways, on to the pick.
Matches between these 2 has for the most part seen goals from both ends:
11/18 Games being Over 2.5
14/18 Games being BTTS
In previous matches between Maitland and Charlestown City Blues, there have been an average of 3.22 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 78% of the matches.
Just basing off of stats alone, my pick will be Over 2.5+BTTS. Good luck if tailing guys, BOL!
Oh shoot, I had trouble finding it as well but I just searched up their name and it was the only game that popped up. Maybe you could try going through all the Australian games today. It'll be under Australia Cup. Hope this helps!
Tough luck mate. 23 total SOG so they tried but ultimately 0-2 score. I’ll be honest- predicting one thing in soccer is hard enough, never had much luck predicting two things haha.
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 9-11 (-1.35 units)**
**Last 10**: **✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅**
**Last Pick**: Ted Evetts & Fallon Sherrock over 5.5 legs (-200) **✅** 4-2 (6 Legs)
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 5:25 AM EST
**Pick**: Devon Petersen & Michel van der Horst over 5.5 legs (-200)
* Series 7. Week 11. Group A
**Reason**: Bovada continues to list Tommy Morris incorrectly on their site and will potentially void all bets like they have in the best. So, I'm playing with a shorter deck because I can't use his matches in a bet. After Monday, nobody really stands out as everybody is on 2 or 3 wins. I'm going to gamble with a total on how close the first day went. 12 of 15 matches went over yesterday. Michel went over all 5 matches with the first 4 of them going the full 7 legs. After a 5 leg match, Petersen went over his next 4 matches. Michel beat Petersen 4-3 yesterday, so here's looking for each player winning a minimum of 2 legs each.
Devon Petersen
* Record 2-3
* Legs 14-17
* Average 86.13
* 180s 4. 140s 23
* Checkouts 14/46 30.43%
Michel van der Horst
* Record 2-3
* Legs 17-17
* Average 84.81
* 180s 4. 140s 21
* Checkouts 17/49 34.69%
**LOSS ❌ 4-1**
The first three legs went with throw. Michel gave it away in the 4th. Missed three darts to win and with only one dart attempt for the checkout, Peterson sniped him. That was it. He was no threat in leg 5.
Average 87.71 vs 83.67. Checkouts 4/9 vs 1/5
POTD Record: 1-1 (-0.2 U)
Form: ❌✅
Last Pick: Nikola Jokic O 41.5 PR vs Timberwolves ❌
Today's Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 vs Chicago White Sox (1.90)
Baseball | MLB | 6:50pm ET
That was tough to watch, the Timberwolves dominated the Nuggets from start to finish. Jokic only had 13 shot attempts...
Today we go to the MLB, and I love fading a bad team like the White Sox. The Rays have had a tough start to the season, but have strung together 4 wins in a row and their offense has finally woken up. But the main reason I love this pick is Rays pitcher Zach Eflin. His numbers look mediocre, with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, but he has an xERA of 3.50. He's also in the 98th percentile of pitchers when it comes to walking batters, with a 2.3 BB%. The White Sox also hit .217 against RHP, good for 3rd worst in the MLB.
Starting for the White Sox is Michael Soroka. His numbers are awful, with a 6.48 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. His xERA is 6.70, so the poor start isn't just a fluke. He's in the 2nd percentile of pitchers in K%, 3rd in Whiff %, and 17th in BB% (the lower the number, the worse they are). The Rays have had success against RHP, batting .238 which is tied for 11th best in the MLB.
Tail or Fade, I wish you luck today 👍
**Record: 1-2**
**Net Units: -1 units**
**ROI: -20%**
**Last Pick:** Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers – UNDER 5 Goals @ 2.18 with Expekt | 1 unit ❌
L10: ❌ ✅️ ❌
**Soccer** | **Champions League** | **21:00 CET**
**Pick:** Borussia Dortmund +1 ASH @ 2.12 with Expekt | 1 unit
**Write Up:** This all comes to motivation. I saw the first game, and even though PSG are slightly more talented, **Borussia** wanted this game more. They took the lead and **PSG** tried to equalize for 10-15 minutes and hit the post twice, but after that you could clearly see they were happy with the 0-1 loss.
I wouldn’t be too surprised if **PSG** takes 1-0 lead and fails to quickly get the 2-0 and relax and await extra time and get punished by **Borussia**.
**POTD Record: 120-144-4 (-19.57 Units)**
**Best Bet Series: 45-27-1 (+12.86 Units)**
Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
Cautionary Tails: 5-12 (-5.38 Units)
Last Pick: **Nuggets Halftime/Fulltime❌**
Today's Pick: **Yoshinobu Yamamoto to record a Win**
Odds: -105
Wager Amount: 1.05U to win 1U
League: MLB
Event: Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers (9PM CDT on MLB Network)
*Be Advised*: *Handicapping Best Bets for the entire of May! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!*
**Recap**: I was SHOCKED that the Nuggets didn't come out of this one! That's the last thing Michael Malone and the Nuggets want to do, get in a 0-2 hole heading to Target Center. Sports is unpredictable at times, which is why you don't unload your bankroll on a single bet. But I would have lay the wood on the Nuggets ML if it was more of a PK price. I'm glad the Nuggets were more than a 2-1 faves because I would have lost a hefty amount on them yesterday, I was that convicted that they would win!
**Matchup:** Moving back to the MLB market and I'm handicapping Yoshinobu Yamamoto to record a Win. Yamamoto has really settled in after a shaky start in Republic of Korea. Since his nightmarish-single-inning-5-allowed-runs debut, he has struckout 40 batters in just 33 innings and ERA has been a solid 1.63! He is what I thought he would be, coming from the NPB as a champion and MVP for Orix Buffaloes, a very good strikeout pitcher. There is a narrative of Yoshinobu allowing tons of hits and runs, but I think he should be fine, now that he is settled in and won't have to deal wit MLB debut nerves. Not saying that he won't start allowing a rampant of runs or even losing games, he'll prolly regress at some point, but I just don't see that today against a Marlins team that is bottom 10 in OPS and mid BA team against RHP. Yamamoto should be throwing fireballs off the mound and get a lot of swings and misses. He should also get the support he needs from his high octane offensive team, especially when his fellow Japanese teammate Shohei Ohtani is hitting HRs at rapid pace.
**The Play & Prediction:** 1.05U on Yoshinobu Yamamoto to record a Win. Also pluggin in Dodgers ML for parlays. Yamamoto goes 6 and 1/3 inning and allows 2 runs, in line for the win, winning 4-2. Dodgers' pen hold the Marlins and win 5-3.
**RECORD: 77W-5P-62L**
Previous Pick: Crystal Palace vs Manchester United- Manchester United +0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.53 ❌️
**Today's Pick:** PSG vs Borussia Dortmund - PSG to Win
**TIME:** 7 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 1.5 units
(❌️❌️❌️✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️) last 10 results
As a Manchester United fan, that team is an embarrassment, let's move to the Champions league with PSG vs Dortmund.
I bet on Over 2.5 goals last game and got burned but I believe this one will hit...hopefully. PSG only lost 1-0 last game and at Dortmund's Home ground, Dortmund can be formidable against anyone at the Signal Park but away its a different story.
PSG have won 3 out of 5 of their recent Champions League matches pus the last time they faced Dortmund at Home, they won 2-0. While Dortmund have won 2/5 away UCL matches and lost their last Champions league away match against Atlético Madrid.
Also in 21 Home matches, they've only lost once. Impressive record. Dortmund were solid in their last match against PSG but away I believe PSG have the better squad and the likes of Mbappe, Dembele and Vitinha will be determined to make it to the final. Goodluck if you're tailing.
POTD RECORD: 0-0
Todays POTD: OKC to win against Dallas Mavericks @1.61 @bet365
Game: Oklahoma City Thunder - Dallas Mavericks: 9:30PM EST MAY 7
Looking at the head-to-head meetings, the Thunder and Mavericks have played four times this season against each other. The Thunder won three of them, winning both home games easily. The last time the Thunder lost at home was late in March against the Rockets. We believe that they have a deeper roster, and that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will lead his team to victory and protect the home court.
Record: 0-3Net Units: -3
Basketball | NBA | Mavericks @ Thunder 9:30pm EST
Last POTD: Nicks to Cover -5.5 @ -110 1U ❌
Recap: Nicks came up with the win but 2 pts shy of covering.
Today’s POTD: Luka Doncic Under 19.5 @ -100 1U
Write up: Luka is nursing a leg injury which I think will bring his rebound number down. However with decreased mobilization increases the assist, hence the value. So looking for a young Thunder team to get after the rebounds and steel some passes.
Record: 0-0
Net Units: +0
ROI: 0
Sport | MLB | 7:20pm / EST
Pick: Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves, U7.5 +124, 3 Units
Write Up: Both pitchers have been dealing and few batters from either team have seen them much. I expect the bullpens to continue to close out the game but if you don’t trust that take F5 innings under. Boston has had decent success against this dominant braves team of the past two years in their last 5 so I expect the same. Good luck if you’re tailing and here goes nothing for my first attempt at this.
*posted on yesterdays accidentally so reposting here
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Tuesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
All-Time POTD: 198-141-2, +56.5u, +7.2% ROI **Today’s pick: Avalanche ML (+105) vs Stars** 3u *Odds via Draftkings Sportsbook* NHL 🏒🥅 9:40pm EDT Rolling with the Avalanche tomorrow night as they take on the Stars in Dallas. The Avs are coming off a 4-1 series win over the Winnipeg Jets in which they dominated them in nearly every facet. They will be coming off a week of rest, while the Stars finished a grueling 7 game series yesterday and will be playing off of two nights rest. Now in the playoffs long rests can sometimes be a disadvantage as they can come out sluggish, and I’m hoping that isn’t the case tomorrow but it is something to be wary of. The Avs are a more offensive team and play a faster game than the Stars who pride themselves on defense, so we will have contrasting styles, but I think the Avs offense will be too much for the Stars D this series. The Stars do have the edge in goaltending as the Avs tendies have been shaky, but this is playoff hockey and anything goes. I have the Avs winning the series in 6 starting with a dub tomorrow night. For all plays follow me on X @ DrMoneyline
Not sure if the long break helps(looking at boston-florida tonight) but i love this pick. Tailing
My first thought.
What was your second thought?
Doubting his first thought I guess
*scratches his butthole* Hm stinky
Also predators had 11 days off and looked terrible their first game back in playoffs, now they are not as good as a team as the AVS but still was a factor.
i like the Avs in this spot too, but i was hot on the Panthers tonight and we saw what happened there. I'm sprinkling this play, but treading lightly in Game 1's when a team has been resting for a week and the other coming off a Game 7 victory in the future.
DR. MONEYLINE! 🏆
Welp. .
Yeah that's a tough first period...
For real! First time trying hockey too 🥵
Dawg... new sport already. This drought is unreal.
👀
Avs all year have been doo doo after long breaks. Hopefully their playoff mojo stays true and they get the dub.
What an unreal finish…wow!
I'm tailing this. I took a little break and was about to spot this as my pick. Really like the pick. BOL hope we hit.
This pick is a 12 pick instead of 1X2, right?
Snagged them at +3.5 after the first intermission! Hoping for the comeback man goodluck!!!
I’m biting my nails right now! I hope they get this 😂
TIE MATCH
𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝: 17-4 𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤: MLB Baseball \\\\ Dodgers \\\\ -2.5 runline \\\\ even 𝐁𝐞𝐭: 1u to win 1u ......... 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐬: +8.95 𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞: Yamamoto has been lights out for LA, but Cabrera has been bad -- even against mediocre hitting teams -- and the Dodgers are ***much*** better than mediocre.
Grampa r u getting to old or wha?? Surely u mean -2.5 right? 🤨😭
OH sh!t you're right !! Damn told y'all I was senile .. let me change that one
😂
https://preview.redd.it/xqbe2cukzwyc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=abf5dbad9ea519e64107e13351ffa6ad297bd6ce Is this the right bet? Sorry still trying to understand run line
interesting way to flex $24CAD 😉
Yea bro
Thank you! So does it mean dodgers have to win by 3?
Exactly, they need to win by 3 or more
Grampa knows his mlb..keep crushing it!
What it means "even" on that pick?
even = +100 (or -100, which is mathematically the same, but it's always represented as +100) or 2.0. It means you win profit equal to your stake. +110 is "plus money", +100 is "even money".
Can find on Caesars for +118
**Pick Record: 12W - 2L (Push: 1)** **✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅** **Previous POTD: Crystal Palace Over 16.5 Total Shots @ 1.72 ✅** **I apologize for the sweat…. 5 shots at half, 18 Shots total.** **Today’s POTD: Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5 corners @ 1.56 ✅** **Game: PSG VS Borussia Dortmund** **League/Time: Champions League / 3:00 PM** Just feel like odds on this are a bit generous, Borussia have a one goal lead and know that that will not be enough to see them through to the finals and should gun for goal and use Sancho to attack the lines. They've played 11 Champions League games this season and have covered this line in 10/11 of those games. Dortmund have played PSG 3 times this season already and have covered this line each time, managing 7, 4, and 4 corners. **Side note: Please bet responsibly!** **Coffee Link:** [**https://buymeacoffee.com/squareprintt**](https://buymeacoffee.com/squareprintt) **Only adding for those asking, everything and anything is appreciated!**
Bro you should’ve seen my face when i got the notification it cashed, couldn’t believe it 😭
I'm not a football expert, but isn't 2.5 corners VERY low?
Nah, they’ll be playing in Paris as big underdogs and I’m guessing they’ll hardly have the ball
PSG don't have the kind of midfield to retain and hold possession. So they'll definitely have the ball.
Varies by league, but ~10 total is the average in the Champions League and skews a bit toward the home team having more. Dortmund average like 5 per game on the season, but books might be anticipating a more defensive approach with the 1-0 agg. lead as an away side in a knockout round.
Line on my book is at 3.5 +110 over
I would take it but max 3.5
Tailing! Got o3.5 @ +110, now its back to o2.5 @ -185. Lets hope I got it good
Tailing again!! Might’ve had to change my pants but in the end it was all worth it!!! Thank you again.
Oof. Ironically, that corner (that they didn't really deserve) probably hurts the chances of getting 3 corners given they scored on it and now lead 2-0 in aggregate. But maybe they'll get another random one on a breakaway Edit: never mind! Let me put some more reverse jinx into the world for those of us on o3.5. They will absolutely not get another one. Edit 2: Let's go!
I only have over 3.5 at evens on betmgm
Congrats on the W. If anyone sees that dumbass "nachoshd," tell him I send my regards. This idiot talking shit and then deletes his comments when he's wrong.
Hell of a record. Trying to get more into soccer, so trying a tail here. Edit: hm, DK doesn’t seem to do ALT corner lines? Any experience with them?
tailed you with Crystal Palace and what a sweat it was. Had Crystal Palace ML so that helped me digest the ending there. I'm on PSG and the over for this game. Rooting for some Dortmund corners for you and this thread though.
How do you feel about parlaying this with PSG o4. 5 corners for some extra juice?
I’m hammering Dortmund to qualify and over 2.5 corners for +250. Don’t disappoint me Germany
Noticed these odds as better than what you posted so just want to confirm this is the correct bet https://preview.redd.it/rsezsau6uzyc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=13e735d1a54ba5d8f4fb692fe01558aef7e0031c
Cash!! Ty
Thank you for this pic good man
EZ 4 u are the legend
How many units for this bet?
3U, same as yesterday
I like it, adding Dortmund keeper to make 2+ saves to bring the juice down to -149
good option!
Did anyone find this on FD?
Yea over 2.5 Away Corners but at -225
ESPN has Borussia Dortmund corners set at 3.5.
will corners count if it goes into extra time or only in regulation?
Regulation
Damn snuck by again. Took the 17.5 yesterday and over 3.5 today. Appreciate your picks!
Perfect. Added the PSG goalkeeper to have 2.5 saves for the extra juice. Cash money!
POTD RECORD: 64-35 Last POTD: Jalen Brunson U8.5 Ast ✅ Todays POTD: **PJ Washington O10.5P @1.71** Form: ✅✅❌✅❌ NBA (Dallas Mavericks) As predicted my dawg focused more on scoring and the passing lanes were shut down by the Pacers im happy my Knicks won too We move fellas and I’m targeting Mr Capital, first game of the series so not really sure what to expect but what I do know is that OKC allow tons of Corner 3’s, MOST this season and that’s PJ’s speciality he’s always lurking over there and has Avg 3rd most corner 3 FGA in the post season and top 5 FGM, also top 10 in corner 3 FGA since traded to Dallas. So our guy should get some points from three, he’s also a threat on the drive and in transitions so there should be plenty of opportunities • 1/2 against OKC since joining the Mavericks 14 & 6 points, in the game he had 6 points he was 0/7 from three just unfortunate but crazy volume • Over in 20/L31 with 30+ minutes • Avg 35.3 minutes in the playoffs • 21/24 with 35+ minutes Volume should be there, it’ll be up to PJ to cash us out, let’s go mf feed your boys man Tail or fade, still cheeks https://preview.redd.it/09stzjhzixyc1.jpeg?width=2817&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=baf58cd5698d892183124dc68a032e2bc604889b Another sweep in the props section 🧹
Billy boy tailing ass always 🤪
Tailing again, let’s get this 🍞
billy, my brother. tailing🫡
Tailing broski!!!! I like Luka o3.5 trey bombs too. For -118 on DK. This is his bounce back (hardley call it a bad series lol) series imo. Big games from him. Thanks always big dog!
Cmon lets hope
Def not over bro just mf’s thinking it’s over at half, just saying that one missed quarter hurts
Thoughts on taking his o18.5 PRA? Books have him at +105
Tailing! Let's keep going!
Smashing this.
Have faith boys!
just one more pt pls
Tough break...he had so long to get that last point too. Welp onto tomorrow
Record: 12-5 (+8.24 units) ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌ Last POTD: NY Knicks -6 Today’s POTD: Boston Celtics TT over 56.5 first half Odds: -115 on DK for 2 units NBA/ 7:10pm ET/ Cleveland Cavs at Boston Celtics Knicks win a great gritty game but don’t cover the spread. Game went back and forth and I end up with my first 2 game losing streak… The Cavs just finished a grueling series with the Magic. They now head to Boston to play the top seeded Celtics. If I can get this line under 60 I’m gonna play it all day. If you have tailed me at all and read any of my write ups Boston is the best 1st half team in the NBA. They also average right around 60 in the first half and around 63 in the first half at home. They shoot a ton of 3’s and get baskets in the transition. They have a ton of options on the offensive end and any number of players could get hot. They cleared this line in 4/5 games against the Heat in the first round. Let’s hope for a bounce back! Tail or fade….Bet responsibly Tip options in profile. Any tips are appreciated and not expected. I’m glad I found this group to try and win some money together. Best of luck!
Love this play, Boston starts strong and it was one of my fav bets of round 1. Let's fuckin go!
Line moved to 57.5. Still tailing. LFG
Great pick boss
Good shit mate🔥
Love this pick. Spotted this last night and got it. Lines at 57.5 for -105 on DK now. Has gone up. But I like their TT for the game too at 112.5. Celtics avg 123 at home all year.
Cash it! 2 game skid is over!
POTD Record: 50-27-1 +46.40🔥 Last Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 (-110) vs Orlando Magic ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌❌❌✅ Today's Pick: Phillies ML (-135) vs Toronto Blue Jays Good bounce back! Early looks, nothing stood out to me on NBA. Time to start getting into a flow in Baseball! P.S I hate that I can’t post parlays on here, i have cashed a few POTD that i couldn’t post, im sorry! Phillies are the hottest team in baseball with the best record. They have won 17 of their last 20, 9 of their 10, 6 straight, and 10 straight at home. They have a +58 run differential over that time (+2.9 runs per game) over the last 20. On the other side, we have the Toronto have lost 4 of 5, 7 of 10, and have a run differential of -37 on the season. Sanchez, who will be on the mound for Philly, has had a slow start to the year. Tomorrow he will face off against a Blue Jaysoffense that ranks 25th in MLB with 255 total hits (on a .226 batting average). The squad also slugs a collective .362 (23rd in MLB) with 30 total home runs (23rd in MLB). This a great spot for him to find his groove facing a Blue Jays team who is 3/13 as an underdog. Let’s back Philly to take care as the best team in baseball right now, this time in the MLB! Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️ P.S i may or may not be in attendance for this game… Have a work trip in Delaware for the week and have the night available to drive to the game! 🤫 [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
just post your other picks in the MLB thread like everyone else? you can even have a separate record for those in that thread
Will do that moving forward, thanks🫡🤝
I will be looking for them and tailing!
I'm a little hesitant with Berios on the mound for TOR. But still leaning towards tailing.
Only thing that worries me is that the jays run a like 8-9 righty lineup and I’m always worried they’ll shell a lefty but hopefully it’s all good
I was thinking Phillies too. But DK hasn’t given me the 2 runs up and you win promo yet today. Does anyone know if they stop giving the promo if you’re winning? I’ve hit the last 4-5 lol
Comes out at 10am eastern time.
Free money
Don’t jinx it, but i hope so!
Is anyone else limited to $10 for the DK MLB up 2 runs early payout ML?
**MLB POTD RECORD:** 31-13 **2024 MLB record:** 20-5 **Last POTD:** Mets ML **Today's POTD:** Houston Astros F5 ML vs New York Yankees **Baseball | MLB | 7:06 PM ET** Bitter sweet win honestly. Great that we got back on track but frustrated that that Hollywood picks guy stole my picks AND my write up gets credit for the win but I am here to help you guys so I am gonna stay put but post the write ups later so they don't get stolen again lol. If you want pick earlier you can message me. Anyway onto today's play.The thing I love here is the starting pitching matchup but the bullpen situation worries me so I am going to go with first five innings instead of full ML. As always I am using stats from the past 21 days. The Yankees batting average splits are not great. .They 228 at night (17^(th)), .231 at home (21^(st)), and .176 on Tuesdays (30^(th)). The one split that does favor them is their .247 vs righthanders (6^(th)). However, I think this is an outlier of circumstances where that won’t matter and possibly have an adverse effect. Despite being a righthander, Verlander has a spectacular .143 batting against vs lefties. For his career, his batting average against for lefties is 20 points lower than vs righties. The Yankees lineup features lefties Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, and Anthony Rizzo who have played a very significant role in that sixth place batting average vs righties. In terms of matchup analysis, Verlander might as well be a lefty so all right handed logic goes out the window. Aaron Judge is also hitting .162 in his career against Verlander (although he does have 3 HR). The Astro's batting splits are not their best possible but they are definitely better than the Yankees are for today. They bat .243 at night (11^(th)), .254 on the road (8^(th)), .259 on Tuesdays (10^(th)), and .229 vs right handers (14^(th)). Luis Gil is one of the most fascinating players in the league to analyze. The dude has absolutely electric stuff with a strike-out rate of over 30 percent. He also has awful control, with a league-worst 15.4 walk percentage. Gil has one of the worst strike percentages in the league (60%) but one of the best contact percentages (68%). Essentially, he relies on his limited strikes to avoid being put in play. He has been performing very well against teams that don’t walk a lot, like Baltimore and Tampa Bay, but has struggled against teams that don’t. The Astros are around league average walk percentage wise but they have by far the lowest strikeout percentage, swinging strikes, and sky-high contact percentage. They also only average three pitches per at bat, given how much better the Astros are than every other team in the league at not swinging and missing, Gil is going to have to have a tough time. His batted balls percentages ate league average. League average batted balls statistics should put someone within 30 points of the league average batting average on balls In play. Gil is is a very high 65 points below the league average meaning he has had a lot of good fortune likely due to the lack of balls being put in play. The Astros will likely increase the number of balls put in play significantly against Gil which could lead to him regressing to the mean. The bullpen situation scares me that is why I am fading any full game ML bets. The Yankees have one of the best bullpens in baseball and have Clay Holmes fresh. Even if Gil gets shelled, the pen likely won’t add much to the damage. The Astros pen has been much more of a liability and have been used a lot. Josh Hader has pitched two days in a row when he's thrown over 60 pitches total. The only high leverage reliever on normal rest is Ryan Pressley who the Yankees have dominated throughout his career (.337 batting average against in 20 games). Also, when these two teams played during the first week of the season, the Astros bullpen blew multiple leads that ended up in Yankee wins. **TLDR: Yankees in bad split situation, Astros are not. Verlander dominates lefties the Yankees have a very lefthanded-heavy roster, he also has great numbers vs Judge, Gil relies on swings and misses which the Astros rarely do, the ball being in play will take away his biggest weapon, The reason I am going first 5 and not the whole game is because I do not trust the Astros bullpen at all but very much trust the Yankees bullpen to maintain however may runs they inherit.** Tips $chuteboxhero on cashapp I also made a spreadsheet with all my picks of the day as well as my record picking games with individual teams as well as my records with O/U, money line and run line picks in case you are interested when considering tailing. See below: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing)
thought it was odd i didn't see you at the top. tailing as always brotha.
We all knew it was your sauce good shit bro
Let’s go chute , tailing and Mets pick came through clutch as an awful display of the nuggets had me taking a handful of Ls. I have to remind myself that it’s part of gambling, hopefully you are finding your mojo again and going on a heater :) , this whole community is a refreshing hobby. Have a great day win lose or draw 😀
Theres only One Real Chuteboxhero🫡 thanks for everything so far bro lets get it!!
Lets get it King
He's back!!!
https://preview.redd.it/xkddw5gqe2zc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=50bee954936eece643f657d53c236166decb3560 Which one is it? Cant find money line 😅
first one. 0.0 means ML so if the game is tied at end of 5th inning you get your money back. if you select -0.50 instead you lose if the game is tie at end of 5th inning. hope it helps.
You had a good run bro
Well, he seemingly looked at every metric except the obvious one, the series. How can it be a surprise when the yankees were already up 4-0? This is the most classic 'can't see the wood for the trees' pick I have ever seen.
Bro what is wrong with you lmao. You had nothing to say when I was winning using the same logic 😂
New to MLB what’s F5 ML ?
POTD Record 20-7 Last 5: ✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️ Last Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 ✅️ Todays Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 (win by 2) MLB: LA Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins 7:10pm PST Odds: -145 Unit: 5 Net units: +53.08 I don't post potd where the odds are like this, but I like, I really like. Dodgers looked great in the 1st game vs. Marlins. I feel even more confident with Yamamoto pitching. Everything I said last write up but with more confidence. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
**Record:** 5-2 **Net Units:**+11.1u **ROI:** +53.66% **MLB** Giants v Rockies **Last Pick**: Guardians @ -122 (3u✅️) **Today’s Pick**: Giants @ -164 (3u) **Write Up**: The Giants have a slightly better offense, slightly better defense, and a much better starting pitcher in this matchup. Kyle Harrison has been pitching well and Dakota Hudson has been destroyed his past 3 games and Giants hitters have had a lot of success vs him as well.
Tailing again!! Thank you!
tailing -155 on DK
Just a little more insight on this..Kyle Harrison throws a 92 Mph fastball 60% of the time.Just something to be aware of.
Record: 5-6 Return: -1.44 units Last 10 (new > old): ✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅ Last pick (4/18/24): Tennis - Barcelona / Dušan Lajović ML ✅ * First set was a sweat, but Lajović was able to hang in there and push it to a tiebreak and save 4 set points to win the tiebreak 12-10. He was able to then take it easy in the 2nd set and turn on the jets in the 3rd. 5/7/24: Sport / League - Tennis / ATP Mauthausen Challenger (Clay) - Round of 32 (Round 1) Match - Joel Josef Schwaerzler (AUT) vs. Mats Rosenkranz (GER) Time - 4:00am PDT / 7:00am EDT / 11:00 GMT \~9 hours from post **POTD: Joel Josef Schwaerzler (AUT) -1.5 set spread (-110)** \[Bovada\] ✅ Wager Size: 3U (Risking 3.3 units to win 3.0 units) Write Up: This is for the SET spread, not the game spread. This is the same as Schwaerzler winning 2-0. Schwaerzler is an 18 year old Austrian just starting his career. He played last year in M15 events, and just started playing in clay court challengers last month. He’s much better than his current rank of 743; he just hasn’t played the matches yet to get the points. He crushed JJ Wolf (Rank 102; the #1 seed of the Savannah Challenger) 6-2, 6-1. Now he’s coming home to Austria and getting a wildcard entry into the main round of the challenger. Rosenkranz plays in M15, M25 and Challenger events. He doesn’t produce any particularly good results against higher ranked players. He’s been hovering in ranking between the mid 300’s and high 500’s for the last 3 years, currently at 447. He had to play in 2 qualifying matches for this event over the last 2 days, both lasting over 2 hours each. He will not be as fresh as Schwaerzler. When Schwaerzler wins, he almost always wins in 2 sets. Of the 18 matches he’s won, 16 have been in 2 sets. The last 14 matches he’s won have been 2-setters. BOL! *Update: W* ✅ *Schwaerzler wins 2-0 (7-6, 6-4). He saved a set point in the first set and got broken his first game in the 2nd set, but was able to pull it through when he needed to. Rosenkranz' 10 double faults didn't hurt either.*
Fuck it, we ride!
UserName checks out
Thanks for the tip
Great pick. Thank you, sir.
**POTD Record: 34-25** Last 10: ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌ Last pick: Wolves vs Nuggets | 7:00 PST | Nikola Jokic OVER 41.5 Points and Rebounds (-120) Bet365 1u ❌ Yeah, this one was frustrating. I will never be one to make excuses but this wouldn’t have been my POTD had I know Gobert was going to be out. Wolves defensive plan on Jokic completely changes without him on the court. He was doubled teamed every possession and forced to be a passer. Sorry to those who tailed. **Today’s pick: Cavs vs Celtics | 4:00 PST | Jayson Tatum OVER 9.5 Rebounds (+100) BetMGM 1u** ✅ Look, idk what it is about the playoffs but this man is an absolute rebounding machine this time of year. - Last 10 playoff games avg 10.4 - Last 20 playoff games avg 10.8 - Hit last 8/10 playoff games - Avg 11.4 vs Cavs last 5 games - 3/3 this year vs the Cavs (10,11 and 13) This is just a pure numbers play and I honestly feel like this is the one stat category where we can really trust Tatum to be consistent. We also get a Cavs team off a tough 7 game series so hopefully we can get some tired legs and a lot of missed shots! Get us back on track Tatum!!
Line moved down to 8.5. Time to smash
Gonna tail! BOL
 We back! ✅
**Belle's Pick of the Day** **Record:** 7-1-0 (Win-Loss-Push) ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ **Last POTD:** PIT Pirates v LA Angels Under 8.0 (-110) ✅ **Balance:** +3.5 Units **Today's Pick: CHI White Sox v TB Rays Over 8.0 (-105) (MLB, 3:50PM PST, Wager: 0.5 Unit)** **Why This Pick?** Today’s pitchers come to the mound with a combined average ERA of over 10 runs; White Sox pitcher Michael Soroka (0-3) carries an ERA of 6.48, while Rays pitcher Zach Eflin (1-4) has an ERA of 4.17. Not only have Chicago and Tampa Bay hit the Over total in 3 of their last 4 games, but both of today’s pitchers carry a losing record. I’m going to wager this game sees plenty of runs, and back the Over to cash friends. -- [Buy Me a Coffee ☕️](https://buymeacoffee.com/coffeeforb)
Record: 25-10 | Net: +10.37U | Streak: 1W Last pick: Aaron Gordon [Under 0.5] 3 pointers made (-105) ✅ Twolves defense looks incredible. He bounced back in game 2 but look for him to struggle on the road. POTD: Daniel Gafford [Over 15.5] points+rebounds +assists (-140) DAL @ Okc | 9:30 PM ET Summary: Gafford will be relied upon for 20+ min a game this series with Kleber out indefinitely and the Thunder vulnerable to physical bigs. He had 19/9 in just 17 min off the bench and 19/15/1 in a start without Luka playing. Thunder were abused in the limited minutes Valenciunas was able to play and I don’t believe they will be able to run Gafford off the floor as easily.
its still o15.5 -110 on ESPN if you dont mind that devil of a book
Record: 30W-32L Net Units: -4.03u | ROI: -2.37% CS2 | ESL Pro League Season 19 | 19:30 / CET Pick: Faze -1.5 vs Monte, 3u @ 1.87 I think taking one look at the player ratings for this event says enough. Faze's worst rated player is ropz at 1.04 whereas Monte has Gizmy sitting at a meagre 0.92 and ryu at a 1.01 rating. That isn't surprising, considering they just came off Monte's academy team, but that's not something that you want versus one of the best teams in CS2. When it comes to form in their respective groups I think Faze also looked a lot more reliabe, even though they did lose to Astralis, they also beat a lot more formidable teams than Monte did. And while Monte did make it into the playoffs they did it struggling every inch of the way. They only beat teams like Forze and Furia whom are both in really bad spots with their roster right now. When it comes to veto Faze'll probably pick Nuke, which should be a comfortable win for them. Monte usually opts for Mirage, but they might decide to try to punish Faze with an Anubis pick. That shouldn't be a problem, since Faze had a week off and Karrigan said in an interview that they'd work on the weak spots in their map pool. That's why I think Faze 2-0 at these odds is a strong bet. Best of luck everyone!
Love this pick. Monte is only in the playoffs because their group was terrible. Only thing that sucks is no crowd but Faze should probably roll anyway.
**POTD** Record: 15-1-15 BOLTON VS BARNSLEY Date: 07 May 2024 at 21:00 BET ON: Both teams to score- Yes Odd: 1.70 - Barnsley are missing Robbie Cundy and Josh Benson. - Bolton are missing Jon Dadi Bodvarsson and Carlos Mendes Gomes. - The Toughsheet Community Stadium is Sold Out. - Wanderers will be aware that a 4-0 advantage was overturned by Sheffield Wednesday in last season’s League One play-offs, and for a spell in the second half on Friday night Barnsley provided evidence that they can fight their way back into the contest with the right encouragement. “Barnsley showed in that 15-minute spell that they can put you under heavy pressure and we want to avoid that if we can. So, we need everybody to help see this through. We need to do our job.” Said coach Ian Evatt. “It will be a similar gameplan but we have to get that early goal and put them on the back foot. We have to cut out the mistakes and try to attack them as best we can.” Said Barnsley interim boss Martin Devaney. - The pressure is off for the Whites as they go into the game as heavy underdogs, against Bolton looking to control the first half to avoid conceding a goal and fast in transition. We expect both teams to score.
Bolton up 3-1 on aggregate, so I think Barnsley will be pressing for goals which will leave their defense vulnerable. Tailing, LFG
Great pick thank you 🤝
POTD Record: 18-7 Net Units: +24.95u Game: CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | CCT Europe Series 2 | 5:00 (UCT-5) Last Pick: **Endpoint ML (-125)** vs. SINNERS 5u**❌** Today's Pick: **Permitta ML** (-130) vs. Enterprise 2.6u [Match Page:](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2371888/permitta-vs-enterprise-cct-season-2-europe-series-2) [Stream:](https://www.twitch.tv/cct_cs2) **Writeup:** -Gonna keep it short and simple today, I don't love this pick, this is a lighter play then normal. This is an elimination game and I am just going purely off the eye test here. Permitta have been bad but have looked competitive in a lot of games even when using a coach. They have looked relatively good against strong teams like Insilio BLEED and AMKAL. Enterprise have been trending downwards to me for a while, they basically rebranded PGE Turow, the roster over performed for one tournament and got a ton of overhype, and haven't been the same since. Enterprise are 2-8 in their last 10 matches while Permitta are 3-7. -This is really going to be a mid off, I am choosing who I think is the slightly less mid team here in Permitta. -Permitta and Enterprise have faced off 3 times h2h since March 2024, Permitta beat them 2-0 on March 3'd, lost 2-0 on April 3rd, and most recently beat them 2-1 on April 27th. -Map Pool is close but I favor Permitta, Mirage/Ancient I give Permitta a decent edge on, Nuke is definitely an Enterprise favorite and a map I give them, Vertigo and Anubis are close to 50/50 for me with both teams struggling winrate wise on them. If I had to pick a favorite, I give Enterprise Vertigo and Permitta Anubis. Giving Permitta 3/5 of the maps which they should get 2 of them, as well as feeling better about Permitta winning their map pick. Best of Luck!
Record: 10-7-0 Net Units: +7.5 ROI: 13.9% Last Five: ✅❌✅❌✅ Last Pick: Dansby Swanson under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-155) for 3 units ✅ Event: Basketball | NBA| Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder 8:30PM CST Pick: 1st Quarter under 55.5 total points (-104) on FanDuel for 3.0 units Write Up: The Thunder averaged 24 points in the first quarter in their first round sweep of the Pelicans, and that was skewed by 35 points in one game. They put up 17 points in Game 1 after a 7 day break between it and the end of the regular season. This time, the Thunder have had an 8 game break before Game 1 against the Mavericks. The Mavericks averaged 23 points in the first quarter in their first round series. Also skewed by Game 6, which they scored 34 points.
POTD Record: 15-6 Last POTD: Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees - Soto over 0.5 hits @ 1.60 ❌ POTD: San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs - Chicago Cubs ML @ 1.75 Chicago Cubs have dominated in 11 out of their last 15 matchups against teams from the National League West. Shota Imanaga, the starting pitcher for the Cubs, has kicked off his MLB career with remarkable success. Holding an immaculate record of 5-0, the lefty boasts an outstanding ERA of 0.78. With 35 strikeouts and just four walks to his name, Imanaga has showcased remarkable control on the mound. Across six starts this season, he has conceded a mere three earned runs over 34.2 innings pitched. Additionally, Imanaga boasts a strikeout rate of 9.1 per nine innings, alongside an impressive 1.8 WAR and a stellar 1.03 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Cubs as a collective unit maintain a solid 3.75 ERA, ranking 13th in the league, and are limiting opponents to a .233 batting average, placing them 12th overall. Conversely, the San Diego Padres struggle with a team ERA of 4.28, positioning them 21st in the league, and their opponents are hitting .241 on average, placing them 18th. The Padres' recent loss of Joe Musgrove to the injured list has further weakened their starting rotation, adding to their challenges. Always remember to never bet with money you can't afford to loose, always tail with responsibility.
Just some points why i think this bet could lose, I would love to hear your take if you could provide me some pushback. -San Diego are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs. -San Diego are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Chi Cubs. -San Diego are 6-2 vs lefties -San Diego beat Cubs yesterday 6-3 both starting pitchers gave 0 runs, seems like bullpen might be an issue concern for cubs? -Shota gave up 3 runs in 6 innings in his last outing at home vs the lowly ranked Miami - R Vasquez is bound to have a bounce back game at some point, perhaps maybe this game? Any thoughts? I was going to pick cubs but then i noticed this when researching. Thanks!
Thanks for the comment! For me, I am aware of the 6-2 Padres, but I dont like stats from recent seasons that much, different team, different situation, different season. The Padres is the 4th worst team this season in batting against lefties (.201 avg) and when they meet one of the best ones, I'm feeling good here. I indeed agree that his last outing at home was not the best, but the pitching last game vs the Mets with 7 innings pitched and only allowed 3 hits, 0 runs, I'm sold. And his total for the season is only allowing 22 hits and 5 runs in 34.2 innings. Impressive stuff. For sure Vásquez will at some point bounce back, but in the pitching matchup here I favor the Cubs quite a lot. I dont like the Padres bullpen to much either. For me I really like the value of the Cubs here. But thanks a lot for questioning the pick here, I would rather get some questions asked and try to answer my point of it, than people tailing blindly. What do you think, you favor the Padres here? Tail or fade, good luck🤝
I am tailing for sure, thank you for your insight. I think Vasquez will get hit for a few runs 2-4 perhaps and cubs do what cubs do from there on in with their bullpen hopefully being better than padres. I watched some tape on Shota, you're right he has been exceptional apart from that one game so i have confidence in him not giving up more than a run at most. That was an interesting stat about Padres being 4th worst against lefties this season, i did not know that and that changes things. Thanks also for taking my message positively, and best of luck as I too will be backing cubs! 
You two should kiss
Right, that was adorable 😂 BOL everyone let's break the books 💪🏾
Hahah
POTD Record: 25-23-1 | Profit: -1.44U NBA Record: 21-20-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0 L10 (new -> old): ❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅ Last pick: Donte DiVincenzo o3.5 Rebounds @ 1.80 odds ❌ Donte had 3 in the first half, making me feel real confident, then let us all down with 0 in the second. Game: CLE Cavaliers @ BOS Celtics, 7:00 PM EST Pick: **Sam Hauser o1.5 3pointers made @ 1.60 odds (DK) placing 2U** ❌ Write Up: Hauser hit in 3 of 5 in the series against the Heat, and hit in 8 of the last 10. He averaged 2.5 3pm per game this season. He went over 2 out of 3 games vs. the Cavs in the regular season. Cavs are 17th in the league out of 30 for opponent 3p%. BOL to those tailing, cheers! **EDIT:** Jesus Christ... in 16 minutes Hauser shot the ball once (and missed), finishing with 0 points, 0 assists and 1 rebound. Bad beat by me, god damn.
He had 3 in the first quarter so I thought it was done deal. Too bad. FYI you still have knicks vs pacers in the game, guessing that’s wrong
Record: 6-4-0 Trailing record: ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌♻️❌ Balance: +0.99u / Avg odds - 1.81 / ROI: 9.9% Last Pick: Marc-Andrea Hüsler -1.5 games vs Misolic @ 1.8 (Bet365) ❌ Husler got ruined. Horrible pick apologies. I got a few messages about this one and though I am sorry and lost money on this too, it is betting and I hope you are doing your own research and not betting more than you can afford. Sport: TENNIS Pick: Duje Ajdukovic / Francesco Passaro o22.5 games @ 1.80 (Bet365) ✅ Time: 7 May 19:00 AEST Event: ATP Rome BOL and let me know if tailing!
Tailing!
Nice bounce back!🤙🏻
Nice pick. Rarest of tennis matches with maximum number of games played at 39. Probably rarer than the double bagel of 12 games, right?
** Record: 6-2 ** Last pick: WTA Madrid: Iga Swiatek tt u12.5 -120 🚫 Today’s pick: WTA Rome: Maria Carle -1.5s -160 vs Preston - 5:30am est 🚫 Recap + Write Up: Gutty win by Iga and a quick and easy L for under bettors. On the bright side, we’re officially due. I’ll keep it short today because I’m pressed on time. Today’s pick, we head to Rome to take Maria Carle in straights vs Preston. This is a rematch from two weeks ago in Madrid where Carle won in straight sets. She’s been on an absolute tear on clay this season with a 15-2 record and a couple lower level titles. In Madrid, she ran through the first 4 rounds (including qualies) without dropping a set before ultimately going down to Ostapenko in the 3rd round. She’s in great form and flying up the rankings. Her opponent for today’s match is Taylah Preston, who is fairly new to the tour at 18 years old and has extremely limited experience on clay with only 7 career matches on this surface and a 2-5 record. With 276 career clay matches across all levels and recording a 186-90 record in them, I expect Carle’s form and experience to come through and get us back on track. LFG Carle 🇦🇷 ❄️🏦 beer me: 3PwJ3CW5p9oJZKmX8F2eePqWJEkqbNk7cu https://cash.app/$champagnekevy
F it we ball I’m nuking Carle just to win! BOL to y’all on the -1.5s
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I had to cash out she’s looking too bad to take the risk at this point
She looks terrible so far. Hope she wakes up
tailing. WTA Rome btw in the write up
Appreciate the write up. Looks like she definitely had the skills to take the first set, just had a bad match today. We’ll get it back tomorrow
4-1 Last pick tampa ml mlb winner Today's pick pirates ml Reason: laa sucks, 2-8 last 10, L3 in a row. Sp has 1.7 whip
POTD record 0-0 POTD: Orioles -1.5 @-135 Been on here for about 2 yrs finally dropping my nuts 🥜 Nothing much to say here Orioles are nice this year. Putting our faith in Corbin once again! I’ll never fade the orioles!! Oh and the Nationals are trashola!!!
I'll tail your first potd!! Let's go!
2024 record: 1-2 Last POTD: Padres vs Cubs: Total Runs o7.5 +105 ✅ Today's POTD: Cavaliers vs Celtics: Jayson Tatum o9.5 Rebounds -105 (Hard Rock Bet) Basketball | NBA | 7:00 PM ET Finally got a win on the board with the Padres vs Cubs game. Padres bats have been so consistent lately. They got a ways to go to catch the Dodgers but they are easily going to hold 2nd place in their division playing like this. For today’s pick I’m going back to basketball and going to pick a more safe bet. Pretty simple, Tatum getting 10 rebounds. He’s averaging 10.4 a game in the post season. Regular season he averaged 8.1. It’s a home game, game one of the series, Tatum should be firing on all cylinders. The Cavaliers barely scraped by against the Magic and the Celtics are just a much more complete team. I think we are going to see the Celtics dominate both offense and defense. I’m actually surprised on the lines for Tatum on rebounds as well. -105 seems like a steal. Good luck to all of you on your picks today!
POTD Record: 4-3-0 L10: ❌❌✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Denver Nuggets -5.5 nuggets bout to get swept fr fr Fade of the Day: Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder/Total under 218.5 @ 1.93 I must be insane for taking Under on these teams with really good offense and players like Luka, Kyrie, and Shai. But during their first round series, both teams showcased their defense instead with Mavs holding Clippers to an average of 99.5 ppg and OKC allowing only 82.75 ppg from the Pelicans. I expect both teams to again try to win with their defense.
Record: 10-5 (+2.68U) Previous pick : Napoli O4.5 SOT - 1.76 (1u) ❌ 4 SOT in the 2nd half but 0 in the first half, annoying L Form : ❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅ Botola | 9:00PM CET Pick : RS Berkane ML - 1.67 (1u) Match : RS Berkane - MAT Tetouan Reasoning : Berkane is in great form and have been great at home only losing 1 in 12 games, and conceding only 7 goals. Tetouan struggles to score away from home with only 11 goals in 12 games, expecting a low scoring game but Berkane to come out on top.
Record 2-4 Last 5: ✅❌❌✅❌ Last Pick: Crystal Palace vs Man United /ML Crystal Palace @ 2.25 bpremium✅ Todays Pick: PSG vs Borussia Dortmund Dortmund to reach the final 2 Units Units: -4.19 UEFA Champions League Soccer PSG vs Borussia Dortmund Dortmund are a tournament team this season and have had a great season in the Champions League so far. In the last round they came through as underdogs against Atlético Madrid, more than deservedly, and also showed in the first leg that they have what it takes to beat Paris. Dortmund has very good counterattack players in Sancho and Adeyemi. Paris has to score two goals and will have to take some action. That's why i believe that Dortmund will ultimately reach the next round.
Risky play. I feel this has ET/PKs written all over it and if that happens it’s a complete and utter toss up. Bol
POTD R : 6-1 Last Pick : Rangers ML vs A’s -W Todays Pick : Yankees ML vs Astros (-122DK) 1U Info : MLB - 6:05P Write up : Welp no free game of the day on the MLB app today but that won’t stop us from making a pick. Today i’m on the Yankees, i’ll get into some more statistical reasoning but this is more of a “do you ever get that feeling” kind of day. Just watched the Knicks get one for the city an I expect the Yankees to keep this rolling. The bronx are loving this shit right now an so am I. We’ve got two good arms on the mound today with Verlander being 1-2 on the year with a 2.08 ERA an 1.15 WHIP, he’s been about 50/50 against this team all time but with inflammation in his shoulder I find it hard to be able to put my faith in him fully as well as Stros in general. Gil on the other hand has looked pretty solid so far being 37th in K’s on the season, going 2-1 on the year while posing a 3.19 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP. I feel this will come down to the bats being hot or not. When looking at the statistics for offense they matchup pretty evenly with the Astros taking a few areas such as ba% an producing more walks causing arms to get shortened but the Yankees take important areas such as runs batted in, obp%, while holding opponents to a .216 ERA. I expect the Yankees to come out performing well an continue this winning streak especially against a team they swept early in the year. BOL my fellow degens, let’s stay hot!
*KBO Record: Overall 221-229-14** (Streak WW, Last 10: 5-5) Down 9.27u over 464 KBO picks, 49.1% success rate, -2.06% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 17-19-0, 47.2% success rate, Down 0.65u, -1.80% ROI) **Last:** NC +142 at SSG (NC won 8-6.) NC's bats stayed hot and SSG's starter struggled. All according to plan. **Pick:** Doosan at Kiwoom **First 5 Innings Under 5.5 -110**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET Not in love with today's slate as two games should get rained out and the other three featurd teams sitting as roughly -200 favorites. We're trying a little over/under today. Kiwoom's dome has traditionally depressed scoring. In 4 fames this month, Kiwoom and Dooszn are the two lowest scoring teams. And in April, they both ranked in the bottom half of the league. Doosan's starter has been very good in 3 of his last 4 starts. Kiwoom's starter has just 2 starts, but in his last, he held his opponent yo 1 run in 5 innings. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
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He’s out of town or something. Last post said something about not being around next few days.
They’re writing their dissertation due this Thursday so they’re taking a break.
Record: 6W-4L-0P ✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌ Net Units: +2.4 units Last Pick: 5/6 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Kansas City Royals; over 8.5 runs ❌ Watching Pasquantino ground out into two double plays with runners in scoring position both times was extremely frustrating🤦♂️ I coulda went up there and struck out and had a more productive at bat than him😂 first back to back Ls Today’s Game: MLB baseball | Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 4:07pm EDT Pick: Dodgers -1.5 RL | -148 DraftKings | 3 units Write Up: Not much explaining to do for this one. The Dodgers are rolling rn and the Marlins are terrible… I expect them to win by a large margin with Yamamoto on the mound and the offense producing the way they have been. Expecting this to be a popular play today but will be taking it as well since I need a bounce back! Good luck to all!
POTD Record: 20-12 Baseball / MLB / 7:45 EST Pick: New York Mets ML -104 Write Up: All picks are based on team wrc+ splits and pitcher expected stats. Butto is pitching better than Miko and NYM are stronger on offense than STL. Mets are looking to get back to .500.
POTD Record: 141 wins / 84.5 losses Event: Football > Champions League > **Paris Saint-Germain v Borussia Dortmund** (starting in 1 hr) Pick: **Under 3.75 goals** @ 1.75 This is a 2nd leg elimination game and goals line seems to me a bit off based on the importance of the match (a place in the final). I expect it to be rather tactical than high scoring & open battle. GL!
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Too easy ✅
**POTD | 26-17 | +9.45U** Previous Pick: Miami Heat ML \[Risk 1.30u To Win 1.00u\]❌ **Today’s pick: Corbin Burnes o5.5 K's (+102 FD)** Last 10:❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅ NFL 2-0 +2.0u MLB 8-2 +5.37u NBA 13-12 +.58u NHL 1-0 +2.0 NCAAB 3-3 -.4u Corbin Burnes is likely to strike out more than 5.5 batters tonight for several reasons. Firstly, his strong track record this season showcases an impressive strikeout ability, with 41 strikeouts over just 35.1 innings pitched, averaging well over a strikeout per inning. His strikeout capabilities are further emphasized by his history of achieving six or more strikeouts in nine of his last ten road appearances against National League opponents. Burnes's effectiveness is largely due to his arsenal of pitches, including a devastating cutter and an excellent curveball, which have consistently baffled hitters. Additionally, his ability to command these pitches effectively in various counts allows him to finish off hitters and accumulate high strikeout totals. Considering these factors and his current form, it's quite probable that Burnes will surpass the 5.5 strikeout threshold in tonight's game against the Nationals.
POTD Record: 1-0 (+1u) Recent form: ✅ Last pick: Mike Conley over 2.5 rebounds (-188 on FD) 1.88u Today’s pick: Donovan Mitchell over 27.5 points (-120 on FD) 1.2u NBA Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics 7:00 pm Nice to see Conley give us a no sweat with an early third quarter cash in a blowout game. Today’s pick I’m riding with Spida! He’s been hot recently and I’m looking for him to keep his mojo going. He hit the over in this line in both games against the Celtics this season. He has also hit this line in his last 5 Game 1s scoring 30 or more points in all of those. I expect him to come out trying to assert himself in this series and set the tone for the Cavs 💪 Tips: Venmo is cs1015 - In no way do I expect tips, especially so early on, but just want to put it here in case people tail and feel generous! Best of luck to anyone who tails and to all those on the thread. Let me know if you’re tailing!!
**| Record: 6-3 | Net Units: 10.15u | ROI: 42.29% | Winrate: 66.67% | Avg. odds: 2.02 |** **| eSport |** [ESL Pro League Season 19](https://www.hltv.org/events/7440/esl-pro-league-season-19) **| 16:15 CEST|** **| Pick:** **BIG +1.5 Maps** \[vs. G2\] **|** ***1.710*** ***odds*** **|** ***3u*** **|** **Reasoning:** When reviewing the head-to-head statistics, particularly in this match-up, it becomes evident that G2 should be considered the heavy favorite. Over the past two and a half years, BIG has struggled to secure a victory against G2, failing to clinch even a single map. Despite numerous close encounters, BIG has consistently come up short, losing every map played. However, today holds promise for BIG to break this pattern and secure a map win in this match-up. Here's why: G2 boasts a superior lineup, with the core trio of NiKo, huNter, and Monesy exhibiting remarkable skill and precision that many teams find challenging to contend with. NiKo stands out as arguably one of the best riflers in the game's history, showcasing unparalleled raw talent and precision, effortlessly dispatching opponents with precision headshots. Monesy, a youthful prodigy, has seamlessly assumed the role of AWPer and currently stands as one of the best in the game, at least in my estimation. huNter, NiKo's cousin, adds depth to the team with his strategic prowess and consistent performance. Following Nexa's departure some years back, his return to the team during the winter break raised eyebrows, with rumors circulating that NiKo intended to assemble a full Balkan roster. While Nexa may not be a standout player, his wealth of in-game leadership experience is undeniable. However, the team's Achilles' heel lies in HooXi, whose subpar performance is puzzling given his prolonged tenure with the team. Sporting a lackluster 0.91 rating over the last three months, HooXi's inconsistent contributions, particularly in negative performances, raise questions about his continued role within the team. While he exhibits flashes of brilliance and occasional carry performances, such instances are rare and fail to align with the consistency and improvement essential for a successful team dynamic. Despite his aptitude for calling plays and leading the team in-game, his overall impact falls short. The reluctance of G2 to part ways with HooXi remains a perplexing aspect of their lineup, especially considering the inconsistency he brings to their gameplay. Assessing BIG proves to be a nuanced task. The team oscillates between delivering textbook-perfect Counter-Strike and faltering with lackluster performances. Throughout the years, BIG has undergone numerous roster changes, experimenting with academy players and reverting to familiar faces. There was a period where BIG dominated as the premier Dust2 team globally. However, their results have remained middling, characterized by victories against formidable opponents like Astralis, G2, and FaZe juxtaposed with unexpected losses to tier 2 teams. At the helm of BIG is tabseN, whose leadership embodies the essence of the team. A formidable player with a strategic mindset and unwavering determination, tabseN's influence is pivotal. Despite a recent slump in form following syrsoN's return to the team, the likes of Krimbo and JDC offer promising prospects. JDC has showcased his potential as a formidable force when motivated, while Krimbo, in particular, has emerged as a standout performer, exhibiting exceptional prowess at just 21 years old. His impressive 1.23 rating in the ESL Pro League underscores his importance to BIG's success. While the German lineup has delivered satisfactory results since the winter break, occasional losses to lesser opponents detract from their stature as the preeminent German team. While defeat against tier 2 teams is forgivable on occasion, recurring losses are cause for concern. While G2 undeniably possesses superior talent and raw skill, other factors such as map pool, current form, and rumors come into play. This is where today's match becomes intriguing. G2 eSports' current form has been lackluster, characterized by subpar performances throughout the ESL Pro League, despite narrowly clinching a playoff spot. Despite facing relatively manageable opponents, G2's struggles have been evident, with defeats to unexpected challengers such as Mongolz and M80 raising doubts about their firepower and consistency. The absence of camaraderie and enthusiasm among the players further compounds G2's woes, reflecting a lack of passion for the game. In contrast, BIG has had ample time to prepare for today's encounter. Armed with the knowledge that G2 holds an 8-0 advantage in head-to-head matchups, BIG is poised to overturn this record. Today presents a golden opportunity for the Germans to capitalize on G2's weaknesses and secure their first map victory against them in a considerable amount of time. Krimbo, in particular, appears primed to lead the charge, buoyed by a wave of confidence and preparation evident in German interviews leading up to the match. The veto process promises to be intriguing, especially given tabseN's recent statement expressing a preference for Inferno over Nuke. While Inferno traditionally served as BIG's permaban, recent weeks have seen them incorporate it into their map pool more frequently. G2's ban of Mirage seems inevitable, while BIG's likely choice of Vertigo aligns with their strengths and G2's weaknesses. G2's selection of Inferno further underscores BIG's opportunity to exploit their vulnerabilities, with Anubis potentially serving as the decisive battleground. In summary, the stage is set for BIG to seize victory today. G2's current weaknesses, coupled with rumors of impending lineup changes, provide BIG with a window of opportunity to assert their dominance. If there ever were a day for BIG to clinch a map victory, it is undoubtedly today.
This stuff feels so rigged. I don’t believe any pick in here on these esports has hit in a week or so. I’ll save the little I throw at this stuff.
Record: ✅️❌️ 1-0-1 Net Units: +0 Previous Bet : SK Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg, SK Sturm Graz Winn and over 1.5 was lost ( 1-1 ) Football, Turkish Cup Besiktas vs Ankaragücü 19:30 CET Pick: Besiktas to Winn @ 1.60 (1 Unit) Besiktas won 1-0 Write Up: Besiktas is in a great form especially at home. 5th in Turkish League plays against 14th. Ankaragücü only with 2 winns out of all away games. They played against each other on 19.4.24 and Besiktas won 2-0 at home. Result 1-0 Besiktas
That SK sturm pick was brutal. Red card 9 mins into the game is what screwed us. Otherwise, I think they definitely had that game in the bag. Tailing today too though
POTD Record: 7-3-1 Previous POTD: Rudy Gobert o 13.5 RA - Push Nuggets we’re garbage. Beating the lakers took everything from them apparently. With how trash they were with their shots, Gobert would’ve feasted and likely covered with ease. Too bad it voids Today’s POTD: Jalen Williams o 4.5 assists(-130 on DK) Basketball | NBA | Dal Mavericks vs OKC Thunder | 9:35 PM ET Williams has been very active as a facilitator and passer for the Thunder this playoffs. He averaged 5 assists on 8.8 potentials in the first round. He also led the team in passes made. In 4 matchups against Dallas this season, he averaged 5 assists on 26 minutes. He’s been consistently getting over 30 mins in the playoffs, so with more minutes/playing time he should be more than capable of cashing for us. Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰 Edit: Jalen finishes on exactly 5 and cashes another POTD. 8-3-1 💵
POTD 5/7/24 Record 2-1 +5.2U Last POTD: Lakers ML 5U Today's POTD: OKC -3.5 2u @ 1.89 extra long rest and game planning for a mavs team that was barely surviving in a series against the clippers without their best option.
POTD Record: 0-0 Today's Pick: San Diego Padres ML Odds: 2.15 Note: The San Diego Padres have shown flashes of brilliance this season, most recently with 6 runs in the sixth inning against the Cubs in their most recent encounter. I'm looking to see them find some more consistency in this game and put down the Cubs again to go up 2-0 in their series. Although the books have them as the dog in this game, I see a lot of value in this pick and think it's worth the risk.
**Record: 0-0** **Net Units: -** **ROI: -** **Football** | **AUS NSW FFA Cup** | **4:30PM (GMT+8)** **Pick:** Maitland Vs Charlestown City Blues - **Over 2.5+BTTS @ 1.66 (Paripesa)** **Write Up:** Hello Guys, first time posting here so go easy on me please HAHAHAH. Anyways, on to the pick. Matches between these 2 has for the most part seen goals from both ends: 11/18 Games being Over 2.5 14/18 Games being BTTS In previous matches between Maitland and Charlestown City Blues, there have been an average of 3.22 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 78% of the matches. Just basing off of stats alone, my pick will be Over 2.5+BTTS. Good luck if tailing guys, BOL!
It’s a bit crazy that I’m in Aus and can’t find this game anywhere 😂
Oh shoot, I had trouble finding it as well but I just searched up their name and it was the only game that popped up. Maybe you could try going through all the Australian games today. It'll be under Australia Cup. Hope this helps!
Tough luck mate. 23 total SOG so they tried but ultimately 0-2 score. I’ll be honest- predicting one thing in soccer is hard enough, never had much luck predicting two things haha.
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 9-11 (-1.35 units)** **Last 10**: **✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅** **Last Pick**: Ted Evetts & Fallon Sherrock over 5.5 legs (-200) **✅** 4-2 (6 Legs) **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 5:25 AM EST **Pick**: Devon Petersen & Michel van der Horst over 5.5 legs (-200) * Series 7. Week 11. Group A **Reason**: Bovada continues to list Tommy Morris incorrectly on their site and will potentially void all bets like they have in the best. So, I'm playing with a shorter deck because I can't use his matches in a bet. After Monday, nobody really stands out as everybody is on 2 or 3 wins. I'm going to gamble with a total on how close the first day went. 12 of 15 matches went over yesterday. Michel went over all 5 matches with the first 4 of them going the full 7 legs. After a 5 leg match, Petersen went over his next 4 matches. Michel beat Petersen 4-3 yesterday, so here's looking for each player winning a minimum of 2 legs each. Devon Petersen * Record 2-3 * Legs 14-17 * Average 86.13 * 180s 4. 140s 23 * Checkouts 14/46 30.43% Michel van der Horst * Record 2-3 * Legs 17-17 * Average 84.81 * 180s 4. 140s 21 * Checkouts 17/49 34.69% **LOSS ❌ 4-1** The first three legs went with throw. Michel gave it away in the 4th. Missed three darts to win and with only one dart attempt for the checkout, Peterson sniped him. That was it. He was no threat in leg 5. Average 87.71 vs 83.67. Checkouts 4/9 vs 1/5
Goes over all until we take it ahaha
POTD Record: 1-1 (-0.2 U) Form: ❌✅ Last Pick: Nikola Jokic O 41.5 PR vs Timberwolves ❌ Today's Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 vs Chicago White Sox (1.90) Baseball | MLB | 6:50pm ET That was tough to watch, the Timberwolves dominated the Nuggets from start to finish. Jokic only had 13 shot attempts... Today we go to the MLB, and I love fading a bad team like the White Sox. The Rays have had a tough start to the season, but have strung together 4 wins in a row and their offense has finally woken up. But the main reason I love this pick is Rays pitcher Zach Eflin. His numbers look mediocre, with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, but he has an xERA of 3.50. He's also in the 98th percentile of pitchers when it comes to walking batters, with a 2.3 BB%. The White Sox also hit .217 against RHP, good for 3rd worst in the MLB. Starting for the White Sox is Michael Soroka. His numbers are awful, with a 6.48 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. His xERA is 6.70, so the poor start isn't just a fluke. He's in the 2nd percentile of pitchers in K%, 3rd in Whiff %, and 17th in BB% (the lower the number, the worse they are). The Rays have had success against RHP, batting .238 which is tied for 11th best in the MLB. Tail or Fade, I wish you luck today 👍
**Record: 1-2** **Net Units: -1 units** **ROI: -20%** **Last Pick:** Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers – UNDER 5 Goals @ 2.18 with Expekt | 1 unit ❌ L10: ❌ ✅️ ❌ **Soccer** | **Champions League** | **21:00 CET** **Pick:** Borussia Dortmund +1 ASH @ 2.12 with Expekt | 1 unit **Write Up:** This all comes to motivation. I saw the first game, and even though PSG are slightly more talented, **Borussia** wanted this game more. They took the lead and **PSG** tried to equalize for 10-15 minutes and hit the post twice, but after that you could clearly see they were happy with the 0-1 loss. I wouldn’t be too surprised if **PSG** takes 1-0 lead and fails to quickly get the 2-0 and relax and await extra time and get punished by **Borussia**.
Dortmund are a different team at Signal Iduna
**POTD Record: 120-144-4 (-19.57 Units)** **Best Bet Series: 45-27-1 (+12.86 Units)** Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) Cautionary Tails: 5-12 (-5.38 Units) Last Pick: **Nuggets Halftime/Fulltime❌** Today's Pick: **Yoshinobu Yamamoto to record a Win** Odds: -105 Wager Amount: 1.05U to win 1U League: MLB Event: Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers (9PM CDT on MLB Network) *Be Advised*: *Handicapping Best Bets for the entire of May! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!* **Recap**: I was SHOCKED that the Nuggets didn't come out of this one! That's the last thing Michael Malone and the Nuggets want to do, get in a 0-2 hole heading to Target Center. Sports is unpredictable at times, which is why you don't unload your bankroll on a single bet. But I would have lay the wood on the Nuggets ML if it was more of a PK price. I'm glad the Nuggets were more than a 2-1 faves because I would have lost a hefty amount on them yesterday, I was that convicted that they would win! **Matchup:** Moving back to the MLB market and I'm handicapping Yoshinobu Yamamoto to record a Win. Yamamoto has really settled in after a shaky start in Republic of Korea. Since his nightmarish-single-inning-5-allowed-runs debut, he has struckout 40 batters in just 33 innings and ERA has been a solid 1.63! He is what I thought he would be, coming from the NPB as a champion and MVP for Orix Buffaloes, a very good strikeout pitcher. There is a narrative of Yoshinobu allowing tons of hits and runs, but I think he should be fine, now that he is settled in and won't have to deal wit MLB debut nerves. Not saying that he won't start allowing a rampant of runs or even losing games, he'll prolly regress at some point, but I just don't see that today against a Marlins team that is bottom 10 in OPS and mid BA team against RHP. Yamamoto should be throwing fireballs off the mound and get a lot of swings and misses. He should also get the support he needs from his high octane offensive team, especially when his fellow Japanese teammate Shohei Ohtani is hitting HRs at rapid pace. **The Play & Prediction:** 1.05U on Yoshinobu Yamamoto to record a Win. Also pluggin in Dodgers ML for parlays. Yamamoto goes 6 and 1/3 inning and allows 2 runs, in line for the win, winning 4-2. Dodgers' pen hold the Marlins and win 5-3.
**RECORD: 77W-5P-62L** Previous Pick: Crystal Palace vs Manchester United- Manchester United +0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.53 ❌️ **Today's Pick:** PSG vs Borussia Dortmund - PSG to Win **TIME:** 7 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 1.5 units (❌️❌️❌️✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️) last 10 results As a Manchester United fan, that team is an embarrassment, let's move to the Champions league with PSG vs Dortmund. I bet on Over 2.5 goals last game and got burned but I believe this one will hit...hopefully. PSG only lost 1-0 last game and at Dortmund's Home ground, Dortmund can be formidable against anyone at the Signal Park but away its a different story. PSG have won 3 out of 5 of their recent Champions League matches pus the last time they faced Dortmund at Home, they won 2-0. While Dortmund have won 2/5 away UCL matches and lost their last Champions league away match against Atlético Madrid. Also in 21 Home matches, they've only lost once. Impressive record. Dortmund were solid in their last match against PSG but away I believe PSG have the better squad and the likes of Mbappe, Dembele and Vitinha will be determined to make it to the final. Goodluck if you're tailing.
POTD RECORD: 0-0 Todays POTD: OKC to win against Dallas Mavericks @1.61 @bet365 Game: Oklahoma City Thunder - Dallas Mavericks: 9:30PM EST MAY 7 Looking at the head-to-head meetings, the Thunder and Mavericks have played four times this season against each other. The Thunder won three of them, winning both home games easily. The last time the Thunder lost at home was late in March against the Rockets. We believe that they have a deeper roster, and that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will lead his team to victory and protect the home court.
Record: 0-3Net Units: -3 Basketball | NBA | Mavericks @ Thunder 9:30pm EST Last POTD: Nicks to Cover -5.5 @ -110 1U ❌ Recap: Nicks came up with the win but 2 pts shy of covering. Today’s POTD: Luka Doncic Under 19.5 @ -100 1U Write up: Luka is nursing a leg injury which I think will bring his rebound number down. However with decreased mobilization increases the assist, hence the value. So looking for a young Thunder team to get after the rebounds and steel some passes.
Record: 0-0 Net Units: +0 ROI: 0 Sport | MLB | 7:20pm / EST Pick: Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves, U7.5 +124, 3 Units Write Up: Both pitchers have been dealing and few batters from either team have seen them much. I expect the bullpens to continue to close out the game but if you don’t trust that take F5 innings under. Boston has had decent success against this dominant braves team of the past two years in their last 5 so I expect the same. Good luck if you’re tailing and here goes nothing for my first attempt at this. *posted on yesterdays accidentally so reposting here