######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
2024 MLB record: 31-9-1
Last POTD: Rockies ML W
Today's POTD: Seattle mariner vs ny Yankees under 8.5 -115 (mgm)
Baseball. MLB. 12:35 PM EST
Holy fucking shit that was sweaty but awesome. Possibly my wildest POTD that ended up being worth staying up to watch two shitty teams go 12 innings. Pumped we were able to get it at +124 by first pitch.
Anyway writing this on my phone from bed at the conference so it’s gonna be brief. Roi and spreadsheet on hiatus until I get back but I like the under in this game. Gil is a strikeout machine and Seattle strikes out at almost a 30’percenr clip. Castillo as a 2.82 career era vs Yankees and the Yankees day game average is their weakest split.
Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cash app, chuteboxhero on PayPal (DM for Venmo)
EDIT: I originally got this at 8.5 on fanduel but it went down to 8 everywhere when I made this post at 1 am lol. As u/code_u24 pointed out, MGM has it at 8.5 right now at -115. Still love 8 but -115 for 8.5 is even better than I got it for so jump on that if you can.
Well fuck Chute, that last bet man… imploded the fucking candle. I’m gonna have to break it into pieces and put it in a wax burner now. I was at work, game looking good. Then Rockies switch pitchers, bad fucking move. I see the A’s tie the mother fucker. I call up the wife. No answer. I’m in the middle of a team meeting. Griping my melachite saying to myself, “strike ass strike ass strike ass,” each time the A’s are up to bat. Finally the wife gets back to me. The candle is in bad shape. So she had to improvise in order to get that wax to melt. So she put another candle underneath the mystic bees wax candle. The Rockies score twice. I take a breath. Knowing this is in the bag. Suddenly the A’s score. Like you son of a butch so I whip of the malachite again murmuring to myself during this team meeting. Strike fucking ass let’s go damnit. Finally it happened. After another pitcher swap. As for the candle though. Might have to look for another.
https://preview.redd.it/w8ofb93a742d1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e5fdc1a2fd6196ef721ae8afd062a6c9787b35f8
What is the main reason for under 8 on this one? I’m trying to understand the pick and baseball more? Just considering their last 3 games have all went around 9-10 runs?
I’ve been a part of this sub for a little over a year I think. This is the most community connected it has ever been. When Grampa disappeared I was devastated. We need to get him back. He’s family.
Record 21-12-0
Net Units: +22.3 ROI: 21.7%
Last 10: ❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Mavericks 1H Total Team Points under 52.5 (-115) for 3.0 units ❌
Event: Basketball | NBA | Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics 7:00PM CST
Pick: Indiana Pacers 1st Half Total Team Points over 54.5 (-118) on DraftKings for 3.0 units
Write Up: RUN IT BACK…AGAIN!
Pacers leading all teams in the first half at 60.9 points. Scored 64 points in the first half of Game 1 that included a 3:24 stretch to start the game without scoring and a 2:02 stretch to start the second quarter without scoring.
Tip Welcome: Venmo/Paypal link in profile.
Best of Luck! 🎰
I don’t envision it going over 55.5 so I would maybe wait and see if it comes back down to 54.5 (unless you have access to alternative lines). Don’t love 55.5 unless you can get it at even money or more, from a value standpoint.
gonna make this bet today, can't wait to screw it up for y'all. feels like a trap line. Celtics almost lost a game 1 at home, i feel like theyre really gonna put on a show tonight. but who tf knows
ive been the victim of some pretty brutal bad beats before but damn that was rough. still ended the quarter with 51 points literally anything in the first 6 mintues of the quarter and its an easy cash unbelievable lol
POTD Record: 61 - 35
Last POTD: Ruud 1st/ML - L
Pick: Alexander Bublik ML vs Pavel Kotov (+112 odds via FD) 1U
Event: ATP Lyon Quarterfinal 7:00 A.M. CST
Bublik doesn't particularly love clay however he is in a good head space mentally and looked great in his first round match against Vukic. Bublik is up to ATP world number 19 while his opponent sits at number 57. Both of these players have a tendency to spiral however I like the way Bublik is playing and if anything, he will get the crowd on his side, and French crowds tend to be rowdy.
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US)
[Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
POTD Record: 12-6 (+5.45 U)
Last 10: ✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅
Last Pick: Braves ML vs Cubs ✅
Today's Pick: Myles Turner O 8.5 Rebounds + Assists vs Celtics (1.76)
Basketball | NBA | 8:00pm ET
Tight game until the Braves put up 6 runs in the 7th inning and cruised to a 9-2 win. Love to see it.
Travel day in the MLB so we'll go to the NBA Playoffs. I'll be targeting the Pacers Center Myles Turner to grab us some boards.
The Celtics are without their 7'3 Center Kristaps Porzingis again in game 2, which leaves Al Horford as their Center. He's old and shorter than Myles Turner, it's a great matchup to take advantage of. He had 14 RA in Game 1, 13 of them in regular time.
Myles Turner had 10 Rebounds with a game high 17 Potential Rebounds. If he gets this many potentials in game 2, I'm confident he gets more than 10 Rebounds. He also picked up 4 Assists on 5 Potentials, and has had 1+ Assist in every playoff game, so I'll take the upside for another multi assist game.
TLDR: Love the matchup for Myles Turner against Al Horford
BOL if you choose to tail 🫡
My book doesn't offer 8.5RA but does offer 9.5RA and 7R, which would you suggest? I'm leaning towards the 7R but please let me know your take, thanks!
Edit: It also offers 1.5A if that changes anything, thanks man.
**Record:** 3-2
**Net Units:** +0.3u
**My Betting Process:** In a nutshell, I have a tennis model that predicts the winning odds of each player in the matches that I analyze. When there is at least a 5% gap between the offered win odds and my model-implied win odds, I will make a bet and use the Kelly criterion for bet sizing (I use the lesser of 1/10 Kelly and 3 units, recognizing that my model is a work in progress and my edge is uncertain). Before making a bet, however, I review a player’s match logs to ensure that they are not injured or otherwise in terrible form. This helps me to avoid value traps but is far from foolproof.
**Last Pick:** Rebecca Sramkova ML (-155) vs. Linda Fruhvirtova. Sramkova won in split sets and our thin value bet paid off! ✅
**Event:** ATP Lyon | Luciano Darderi vs. Arthur Rinderknech (tennis)
**Time:** 6:20am EDT
**Pick:** Luciano Darderi ML (-155)
**Units:** 2.5 units
**Write Up:** Darderi is in good form, having won 8 of his last 10 matches dating back to early May. His opponent, Arthur Rinderknech, is also in decent form, having won his last two matches including an impressive straight sets win over Francis Tiafoe. At -155 odds, we’re getting implied win odds of 60.8% on Darderi. My model has his win odds at \~70.4%, representing a 10% gap in our favor. I do not have any reason to distrust my model as neither competitor appears to be injured and both have been playing on clay for months. Given the size of my perceived edge, I am putting a 2.5 unit bet on the Darderi moneyline. Good luck to anyone tailing!
**Update:** This one ended up being a walkover so if anyone sees this I would recommend the Alexander Bublik ML (+110) vs. Pavel Katov (1 unit).
**2nd Update:** Bewbs won an up-and-down 3-setter. ✅
Hi- appreciate the feedback. My model was showing a decent profit until a major downswing yesterday. Those things will happen. I’m only 215 bets into this model and I’ve already had downswings of 20+ units. I’ve also had upswings of 20+ units. I’m aiming to get about 1,000 bets under my belt before I make a conclusive judgment one way or another. Best of luck!
Record: 13-5
Total Units: +7.38
Last Pick Celtics vs Pacers 3rd Quarter Total o54.5
We did it! Easy dub. Amazing game. I was going absolutely wild when JB hit that 3!!! Bleeding green for #18!!!
Today's Game: Celtics vs Pacers 8:00 PM EST
Today's Pick: TJ McConnell o9.5 points at -120(DK)
Reasoning: First off, TJ had a very impactful game in game one. He came in and brought that energy and steadied the ship when Haliburton was turning the ball over. McConnell only had one turnover last game so I expect him to get the same impactful minutes. He's gone over this line in 7 out of the last 9 games(7 out of 10 to be fair, but also 7-9). There's a ton of value here. Coach Carlisle is going to Lean on his veteran presence and defensive energy so I see him playing at least 24/25 minutes again. I know everybody saw the super high scoring game one and some people think that the series will be like that, but I'm just forewarning you. I also expect tonight to go under 225. Again, that's not my pick of the day but it's something I will be playing on the side. That being said, tail or fade, just do so responsibly!
***LET'S GO CELTICS!!!***
Exactly ten games, he's gotten double digits in 7 of them.
https://preview.redd.it/dxelufui272d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=60ed73c03f8be2082c184997c377afc37f9a26a8
MLB 2024 Record: 4-2
Streak: W3
Last pick: Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins Under 8 -160 🔥🔥(Wow what a sweat free one that last one was! Only 1 run scored the entire game haha the starters dominated as suspected.)
This pick: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees Under 8 -112
Reasoning: For today we will be going to Yankee stadium for the earliest game on the sleight with the Yankees and Luis Gil hosting Luis Castillo and the mariners. I like this pick because both starters have been dominating as of late and Castillo in his career has always pitched well vs the Yankees, and Gil should continue to do well vs a mariners lineup that is very up and down and prone to not scoring many runs. (I also like Yankees ML here or possibly the over for Gil strikeouts prop, just a bit riskier in a different way)
Not too much to choose from on the sleight that really feels like a huge slam dunk besides this play, possibly the over in Rockies/A’s or over in Cincinnati but I like the under in the Yankees game for today the most. As always best of luck for all your gambling endeavors!
If you want to tip me pm for my Zelle ! Thanks guys ☄️
**Record: 3-0** ✅✅✅
**Last POTD: Football** | **UEFA Europa League** | **21:00/ CET / Leverkusen vs Atalanta** Total offsides under 4.5 @ 1.5✅
**Today's POTD: Football** | **Superettan Swedish league league** | 19:00 **CET IK Brage vs Degerfors**
**Pick:** **Over 9.5 corners** (both teams total) @ 1.52 cloudbet
**Write Up:**
There's an 88% chance that the game will have over 9.5 corners. Also, in all of IK Brage's matches this season, the total corners between them and the team against they play have always exceeded 9.5.
**Why Bet on Over 9.5 Corners?**
* **High Consistency:** IK Brage's games always go over 9.5 corners this season.
* **Strong Odds:** An 88% probability makes this a solid bet.
BOL my friends and lets get this straight to 100-0. :P
[https://buymeacoffee.com/teddycucumber](https://buymeacoffee.com/teddycucumber) I love reading books so if you feel generous it will be highly appreciated <3
EDIT: STARTING TIME EDITED, my bad ! BOL once again
EDIT #2 : ODDS were not added, sorry, I'm new here <3
I watched the whole game. The amount of times the Rockies had people on bases and couldn’t put the runs in was insane. I think taking over 8 is smart here.
My Pick of the Day Record: 21W - 17L | Profit in Units: +18.14
My pick of the day: Cagliari vs fiorentina// Cagilari double chance 1X// odds:2.09//+109 bet 5 units
REFRESHING AFTER THAT LOSS TO BREAK THE STREAK OF WINS.
THE REASON WE LOST IS BECAUSE I BET A PUSSY BET
ODDS:1.7 ARE MORE SAFE THAN RISKY AND THAT DOESN'T SIT RIGHT WITH THE BIG BALLS ENERGY.
THE BIG BALLS ENERGY IS HAVING SO MUCH FAITH TO DO THE INCREDIBLY RISKY DECISION KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE IN YOUR FAVOUR.
EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED IN THE JUVENTUS GAME WE TOOK THE HIGHEST ODD BET IN 1X2 KNOWING THAT IT IS A DRAW AND THAT IT IS WHAT WE DO TODAY
It is refreshing none the less to lose, it's like taking a vacation away from work and to reflect and get some leisure time.
BUT WE GO BACK HARDER THAN EVER, TO THE TOP, TO ROB THE CASINOS, TO VICTORY WE MARCH
REASONING: First Fiorentina hasn't been able to beat cagilari in their home stadium and this goes backkkkk.
In fact, cagilari has beat fiorentina in their home stadium multiple times, but fiorentina has only been able to squeeze a draw (2D 2L)
Furthermore, Cagliari are undefeated in the last 6 games at home going against good teams like ATALANTA (who ended bayern leverkusen's undefeated streak yesterday ) and winning 2-1, 2-2 against juventus, 1-1 against napoli
Teams that were able ot be cagliari at home are always solid teams, like Lazio who are literally the 1 day who are either tigers or cats and have unpredictable playstyles, Ac milan inter roma all solid italian teams.
But when it comes to fiorentina they are literally to play the UEFA EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE FINAL, which is their most important match and that will be 1 week from now.
They have nothing to achieve with this game, They are less focused while cagliari needs to end their season with what could be their highest rating in the table if they win this game.
This bet is a solid easy W,
BIG BALLERS OUR TIME TO ATTACK THE CASINO WITH 1 POWERFUL BLOW, MAIN BET DOUBLE CHANCE, SIDE BET DRAW, TOP BET 1-1
LETS FUCKING CASH
give your roses to the godfather: [Paypal.me/thegodfather28](http://Paypal.me/thegodfather28)
Edit: obviously the referee had to rig it at the end there adding 7 extra minutes on top of the 5 extra minutes, giving a very skeptical penalty.
as I watched the game I just couldn't help but notice the referee keeping the game alive when it was done, he wanted fiorentina to win and he made sure that happens,
A man's whole aim in life is to inspire, to do his very best so others can notice and say hey I want to be like this guy what does he do?
I am grateful to god that me writing a post has lead you to a path of self-discipline.
What can you expect from retention?
everything and nothing.
100% rigged, young ref playing over 10 mins OT even if given was 5 and a pen in the 11th additional minute from again 5, the hell, 3 goals not given for cag, the fuck
glad i cashed at 95% of payout, tho
Cagliari achieved safety last match and have nothing to play for they’re already on vacation. Fiorentina need to keep winning to maintain a European slot for next year and the conference league final isn’t for a week.
What the fuck was that ending! I got in Double Chance Cagliari Draw at +275 at half and felt great only to have a penalty given at 90+8 when only +5 was allotted. Fucking Italians.
5 - 2
+3.08U / +25.6% ROI
🏀 NBA | Indiana Pacers vs Boston Celtics 8:00PM EST
Total over 218.5 -200 3U
Last game between these high-scoring teams ended at 261 (234 not including OT). Throughout this ‘23 - ‘24 year they’ve averaged 245 pts against each other, lowest being 219.
POTD record : 2-1 / Units: +0.57 / Wins: 2
Only 1 unit picks
Previous POTD: Djokovic vs Hanfmann under19.5 games ✅ Nole managed to come back from 0-3 in the 2nd set and went on to win 6 games in a row while displaying some quality tennis to secure the win .
Streak: WWL
Today’s POTD: **under [email protected](-125)**✅
WTA Strasbourg **Danielle Collins vs Clara Burel**
8AM est time
Reasoning: Going with the good form that Collins showed on clay courts in the last month . She thrashed Siniakova yesterday and I'm expecting her to do the same thing to Burel today. Even if the french showed improvements in her game and managed to get wins against Svitolina and Pliskova in the last few days , I don't think her game will be strong enough to impose problems for Collins.
Banking on the american's good serve and returns.
Score prediction : 6-3 6-2
If tailing please bet responsibly thanks BOL !!
see more picks in the tennis thread
POTD Record : 26-14
Last 7 - ✅✅🤡✅🤡✅✅
Last pick: WTA Strasbourg Danielle Collins -3.5 (-135) vs Katerina Siniakova 0400am EST ✅
POTD - ATP Geneva Alexander Shevchenko vs Flavio Cobolli ML (-150) 1320 EST 1unit✅
I Would love to ride Danielle Collins again but the odds are too juicy so we got #61 vs #56 Cobolili. Cobolili is coming off an impressive win against Ben Shelton. These two have similar styles but Cobolili has a monster serve. His ability to cover the court and turning defense into offense will put a lot of pressure on Shevchenko.
BOL Guys.
Edit Cash Easy day!
Been a little over 6 month since my last pick : Current Record 2-2
Last POTD: BTTS Pattaya Dolphins United 1st half ML (+210) @ Chanthaburi FC Thailand Division 2
**Today’s POTD**
**Arda vs Slavia Sofia | BTTS 1st Half (+450), Bulgaria Parva Liga, Conference League Group | Kick Off 8:15am ET**
Reasoning:
Slavia Sofia has been finding the back of the net recently, while Arda hasn’t been able to put together goals. The head to head streaks with these teams point to a low scoring affair, but they do have a few past matchups that have ended 3-2 which is exactly how i think this one ends.. I think Arda finds form tomorrow while Slavia Sofia still have no problem finding the net.
(it’s +450 for a reason)
Tail or fade and hopefully early goals in Bulgaria :)
BTTS HIT IN THE 41st minute ! ✅✅✅✅
**Record 99-1-53 | +56.25u**
Form: WWLWWLWWWLW
*NRL: Bulldogs vs Dragons / Dragons Total Score under 18.5 $1.84* 2u (SportsBet) 7:50PM AEST
---
**I first posted here in March 2019 and here I am 5 years later trying to get the boys the 100th win.**
Been very impressed with the Bulldogs defense this year where they've kept 6 teams at 20 points or less, including Penrith and Melbourne. Ciraldo has their line looking rather sharp and they've got absolute workhorses in their mobile forwards King, Hughes and Salmon, who will be able to counter the preferred edge play of the Dragons.
The Dragons have only surpassed this amount 3 times in away games this year and have scored most of their tries down that right edge. A lot of them have been freak plays from Hunt and Lomax though, so don't expect it to continue. Xerri may be a weak spot in defense but he's supported by strong defensive players inside him.
If your line is 17.5, I'd rather take the Dragons scoring between 11-20 total points.
BOL
2024 record 8-3
Last pick: Yankees vs Mariners o 8.5 (W)
Maybe too obvious of a pick but taking the Orioles -1.5 and obviously I would also take the other option.
Also thank you for the praise. Now I’m scared if I lose I’ll lose reputation and I’ll I feel guilty if my pick loses. I see people get a lot of hate. But I understand.
Chow
**Record: 15-8 (+4.87u)**
**Last Pick: Artturi Lehkonen o2.5 shots on goal -125**
Said I'd be back after my week vacation but had a lot going on when I got back, so had to take a bit of a longer break. Let's get back into it! NHL is my fav sport but may not always have a pick I really like with only 1 game on each day so I'll go to other sports when that's the case.
**Pick: Yankees/Mariners u8.5 -130 (MLB, 1u bet)**
Midday game tomorrow in New York for the last of the 4 game series between the Mariners and Yankees, with the Mariners up 2-1. I know all 3 games have gone over so far (5-4 SEA, 6-3 SEA, 7-3 NYY) but I like the under in the finale. Starting with the pitching matchup of Gil vs Castillo - I've liked what I've seen from both of these guys so far. Gil is 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has gone at least 6 innings in each of his last 4 games without giving up more than 1 earned run, and on top of that he's been great at home (the only game this season where he's given up more than 1 earned run was on the road). He's coming off a 14 strikeout game against the White Sox, and Seattle strikes out at a high rate so I like the matchup for him. Castillo is only 4-5, and with a 3.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. After giving up 4 earned runs in each of his first 3 starts, he hasn't given up more than 2 in 7 straight. He's also had some success against this Yankees lineup, as they're hitting .156 against him. Castillo has played the Yankees three times since joining the Mariners, and the total went under in 2 of those games (the 1 over was because the Mariners hit 3 home runs in a 6-run first inning en route to a 7-3 win). Yes, the Yankees lineup with Judge and Soto can be scary but there is also a chance New York rests someone when they have an early start after playing Wednesday night, and looking ahead to travelling to San Diego. Lastly, both bullpens have been pretty solid this season, especially New York's, so I'm not too worried about bullpens blowing up after the starters come out of the game. This line is 8 at most books right now, I took 8.5 on TheScore Bet but even if your book has 8 you can do the alt under of 8.5 to get the push protection.
**Record:** 11-4
**Net Units:** *+12.75 Units*
**Previous Pick: Port Adelaide -7.5 1st Quarter Handicap.** Mentioned how topsy turvy Port Adelaide are as a team and they really proved it. Shouldn't be trusting them at all and I made the mistake of following them in. It's a tricky balance of picking 1 particular play for the POTD thread when you have a slate of 5-6 picks but still learning and still growing, more importantly still profitable and will continue that.
**Event**: Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs
**Time**: 7:30pm AEST 23/05
**Bookie**: Ladbrokes
**Play**: To Score 2+ Goals, Will Hayward.
**Odds**: $2 (AUS) or +100 (US)
**Units**: 1 Unit
**Analysis**: Last play for tonight. We all know that the Swans are in absolutely ELITE form this year, hard to deny. Dogs playing Swans tonight who obviously have been firing on all cylinders but I actually expect tonight to be fairly competitive and probably closer than the odds would indicate. In terms of attacking stats, Bulldogs do have a good offensive pack but clearly Swans are #1 this year, at this point. They win good contested possessions but they also can attack hard off half-back with the likes of Florent and Blakey. Hayward has been on absolute fire for about 5+ weeks now, he's converting at a super high percentage and not only that, he's just being way more attacking and threating in terms of winning the ball. In his last 5 matches, he has kicked 13 goals and against some decent defensive teams like Fremantle and GWS. I think he will get a pretty good matchup tonight given key tall defenders like Jones and O'Donnell will likely be chasing McDonald, Amartey and McLean around. Doggies historically struggle with those crafty half forwards especially in recent weeks with the likes of Banfield (3.1), Bolton (2.1) and Greene (3.0) each kicking over 2 goals against them. In his last 5 games against the dogs, he has kicked 5 goals, 6 behinds. Averaging 2 goals in his last 7/10. I think he's in way better form currently, is playing for a renewed contract and should have plenty of success at ground level and I think he can really compete again tonight. Keen to get back on the winning path for POTD. Let's go!
https://preview.redd.it/96kbv79m132d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=18223c354e7b687720592312b39afa5384f61f7d
**MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW SO YOU DON'T MISS POST NOTIFICATIONS!**
My book doesn’t have player props for Aussie rules, are there any alternatives you’d feel comfortable with? Often enough the write ups give me a general idea even with no try scorer option but the spread in my book is +8.5 which is a bit close. Too close?
POTD RECORD: 68-46
Last pick: Derrick Jones Jr O11.5 PR ✅
Another cash fellas by the smallest margin
Todays pick: __Jrue Holiday O10.5 RA @1.80__
NBA (Boston Celtics)
We move, Jrue absolutely feasted in game 1 in all departments and even scored 28 points which I don’t think the Pacers can let happen again and I do not see him put up another scoring performance like that. But what I do think is he’ll continue to facilitate and be crucial in the defensive end. He went over the RA line with ease, OT bumped the stats a bit or course but not a lot. He got a good amount of potentials and rebound chances which if they converts only makes this pick better. As mentioned on the JB pick was the Pacers single man coverage, but they did in fact send a few double teams where the Celtics ball movement was just too good and resulted in open threes not to mention the transitions for Jrue to find some dimes
• 1/1 vs the Pacers in this series
(14 RA, 7 Rebs & 8 Ast)
• 14 rebound chances & 13 potential assists
(27 potential RA)
• Over in 5/L10 games
• 4/6 against the Pacers this season
• Over in 8/L10 games against the Pacers
Avg 13.8 RA
Let’s go Jrue, let us cash again
Tail or fade, you’re the dawg
RECORD: 7W 3L UNITS WON: 6.48
LAST PICK: PICK: kyrie 30 PRA ✅
NOTE: Kyrie covered by the 3rd 😜
PICK: Australian rugby league NRL bulldogs -4.5 ✅
BET: 1 unit to win 1.98 on bet365
NOTE: 2 teams with really good striking attack on both sides and they can both score from anywhere this should be a high scoring game, but I think dogs should win by a converted try
Game starts in just over 4 hours
https://preview.redd.it/uzdtj6m7742d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=74984a6c65ff7937aa08da9fe14c70d46274f4b3
\*\*Pick Record: 4W ✅ - 1L
Previous POTD: Hugo Gaston vs Francisco Cerundolo over 20.5 games at 1.70 odds ✅
Today’s POTD: Giovanni Perricard ML at 1.72 vs Hugo Gaston✅✅✅✅✅
League/ Sport: Tennis / ATP Lyon
Perricard es la promesa francesa del Tennis actual. Es un jugador muy hábil, joven y viene de ganarle a Sonego quien es un jugador más experimentado. Hugo Gaston ayer le ganó a Cerundolo en un match que prácticamente Cerundolo regaló inexplicablemente y no jugó a su 100%. Este match se lo debería llevar Perricard sin problemas
BOL
EDIT: WIN IN 3 SETS ✅✅✅✅
Record: 170-142-8 (LWWLLWWLWWWWLLLLWWLLWLWLWLWWLWLLWWWW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: DAL Mavericks at MIN Timberwolves | Karl-Anthony Towns o8.5 rebounds at 2.14 odds for 2 units
Completely misread the game. But still fuck KAT, my mistake for betting on him
POTD: IND Pacers at BOS Celtics | Pascal Siakam o3.4 assist at 2.14 odds for 5 units
Reasons:
* Plus money. Let's eat.
* Had 7 assist last game as the effective offense ran through him
* Hit this mark last three games
* Boston has their defensive lapses and Pacers are able to exploit some of them with their pace.
* I love the over on this game also. Expecting the ball to move quickly, quick runs on turnover/defensive stops and shots to be taken earlier in the shot clock.
* Can't forget about that championship pedigree. His experience is valuable in these moments. This is what the FO was trading for and it's paying off.
Best of luck!
**Record:** 2-1 [+1.5units]
Wonderful race by Age of Gold, the horse made it comfortable and took 1st place.
**Today's Pick:** Tijuana Two Step [Place in top 3]
**Event:** Race #8 Gatton When: 19 hours from post.
**Wager/Odds:** 1 unit/$1.75
**Why?** *This horse is in great form, from 4 starts it has 3 wins, and one 2nd place. Hard to go past and I believe the odds are going to change. I managed to pick these Odds at $1.95 but as typing it's gone down 20 cents. You may be able to get higher odds then I've posted but I've got to play at current rate to be honest. The odds will shift alot but that could be a bad thing. Tijuana Two Step has a favourable gate. My personal wager will be a little on the win and a bit more on the place. But my POTD is the place for security*
**I just noticed, odds shifted as the favourite horse was scratched, so $1.75 is still extremely high value**
POTD
Record: 1-1
Net Units/ROI: +0.6/15%
Last Pick: Timberwolves ML (-180)❌ just a bad pick, Minnesota looked pretty mediocre particularly in the second half
NBA | 8:00 PM EST | Celtics vs Pacers
Pick: Ben Sheppard O0.5 3PM (-162 DK) 1U
In this postseason, 72% of Ben Sheppard’s attempted field goals have been threes.
He is averaging 2.9 3PA, having 0 attempts only once. He has made at least one three in 11/14 games. He is shooting 44% from three. The concern is that these numbers are step ups from his regular season splits of only 31% on 2.7 attempts, meaning he could be cooling down. He didn’t make any threes in game 1, although he had 3 attempts. He improved in 3P% every year he played in college all the way up to 41% his senior year, so that assures me a little bit that hes still a fine shooter. This is purely a numbers play and hoping he can get at least a few looks to where the numbers say hes likely to make at least one. The Pacers are clearly trying to play with pace, and the hope is that he can some wide open looks on fast breaks or from Halliburton’s playmaking. Tail at your own risk as it could cash anywhere from the first quarter to the waning minutes of the game lol
A bit risky, but not a bad play. I just hate the odds on it, otherwise I’d say it’s a great pick. Shep doesn’t shoot much. It’s usually from 3 when he does, but that juice is a bit much for a 2-5 shot attempts guy. I’d love it at -110 to -120.
🎯 PREMIER LEAGUE PLAY-OFFS 🎯
POTD 37-27
DARTS RECORD **37-24** (+3.49U) | All POTD bets between 1U-2U
Last pick: Conor Heneghan ML vs Bradley Brooks **@ 1.87** (2U) ❌
Todays Pick: **Littler vs Smith Total Legs** **OVER 16.5 @ 1.93** (1.5U)
I am so fuc\*ing glad that there's some proper darts on again, it feels like its been an eternity since the last major tournament. MSS has been okay, some profit has been made, but ultimately its childs play in comparison and I cannot wait for the Premier League play-offs tonight.
Most predictors seem to be writing Smith off and suggesting a comfortable Littler win which is strange to me and I think its naive. Everybody loves the child sensation that is Littler and for good reason - he's amazing. But so is Michael Smith. In the last few months I think he's finally settled with his new Shot darts and we are gradually getting the old Smith back. Last week he won the last night of the league format besting Aspinall, Littler and Humphries. Additionally, he boasts a 5-2 head-to-head record vs Littler which is surprising but impressive, and all 7 meetings have come in the Premier League.
Not only that but if we look into the statistics for the past 2 months it's close again. 96.3 plays 97.8 in averages, 105 plays 107 in first 9, double % 40.5 plays 42.2. This match-up is closer than many think. I've not spoke about Littler at all really because we've come to expect a very consistent high level from the kid and I don't think that changes. I think this could be a spectacular match and I'm pretty confident neither will get smoked.
If tailing please bet what you can afford to lose, and if you're a degenerate who's going to message me shit after a loss please tail someone elses pick (and grow up). Ta! Edit: formatting
Record: 3-7
Last pick: Reds ML❌
What up mofo’s? He’s baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!?!?! I took a couple days break to identify such a quality pick.
Form: ❌✅✅❌❌❌❌❌❌✅
Today’s game: BOS Celtics vs IND Pacers
Pick: Payton Prichard over 8.5 points( +114 on DK as of write up)
Write Up: Never have I been so confident with a pick until today. When you think of the mother loving Celtics, you think Tatum, Brown, and Derrick White. You don’t think mister Prichard, do you? MY POINT EXACTLY. Indy is going to lock down (or try to) their star players, giving people like my boy Paypay to step in and get those opportunities. You saw it yesterday when he started to get more minutes (22 minutes) and he was lights out in shooting(3/4). He is making buckets and will continue to have these opportunities as the team will tighten up and really look take away chances for their stars.
Give me the money and Paypay takes us to the bank boys and girlssssssss! We coming for you haters, don’t you worry. Let’s GOOOOOOOOOOOO
Good luck to you, better luck to me 🍀
Let me know if you tail or fade. I love the feedback! 

This clown is a full fade for me after game 1. I would have won $750 on a 5 leg parlay if he scored 10 points. He had 8 very early in the first half and never took another shot after that. I was pretty heated. Good luck tho
POTD Record: 5-4
Last POTD: Hanfmann +5.5 against Nole ❌
Todays POTD: ATP Lyon Mpetshi Perricard - Gaston: 17:30 CEST
Pick: Mpetshi Perricard winning @1.73
According to the bookies, this should be a 50-50 match. However, we believe that Mpetshi is more rested than Gaston. The French Open will start this week on Sunday, so Gaston may try to make this quarterfinal easier to get some rest before one of the biggest tournaments of the season.
P.S. whole write up: https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2024/05/23/atp-lyon-best-bets-including-bublik-vs-kotov/
Time to get back into the winning form!
Potd record 2-1
Last pick: Newcastle vs Tottenham. Newcastle or draw✅✅
Todays potd: Boston Celtics vs Indians Pacers (pacers +10.5) NBA 8pm Eastern time
Reasoning: Pacers should have won the last game, brown clutched when it mattered most and the celtics got a get out of jail card. Pacers are a strong team and as an Irish Minnesota fan I would much rather face the celtics than the pacers. The spread and the odds its offering seem wrong right now and I thought this offer was too good not to take.
Best of luck to any tailing
**POTD**: O16.5 Outs - Paul Skenes (-120 DraftKings/-110 FanDuel; Risking 5.7u to win 5u)
**League/Time**: MLB - SF @ PIT (12:35PM EST)
**2024 Record**: 19-18-1 (51.35%) | -5.4454u | ROI: -6.62% | Current Streak (1 Loss)(L to R): ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌\_✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅❌
**2023 Record**: 86-52 (62.32%) | +54.8644u | ROI 19.84%
**Last Pick (5.22.24)**: To Record a Win - Tyler Glasnow (-110 DraftKings; Risking 1.1u to win 1u)❌
**Reasoning**: Paul Skenes is an absolute unit. This is only his 3rd start but he remains the most hyped pitcher prospect coming out of the minors so far this year. He's only covered this 1/2 times but in his last outing vs CHC he was stretched out to 100 pitches across 18 outs recorded. PIT's [short bullpen is also looking a little tired these days](https://triblive.com/sports/shorthanded-pirates-bullpen-in-need-of-rest-as-paul-skenes-prepares-to-make-3rd-mlb-start/) including an extra innings game last night.
https://preview.redd.it/cc9xm678c62d1.png?width=557&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ba6457acdd9eb8841c56c66698731246c0afe12
SF's offense is mid to better than mid. They are a tick above league average in pitches per plate appearance (SF: 3.89 P/PA vs MLB Avg: 3.88 P/PA) while their per game averages leave them 18th in At-Bats, 13th in Hits, 13th in Walks, and 18th in Runs. They also strikeout the 11th least.
Lastly, Pirates play in a very pitcher friendly park. Check out this [helpful post](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1cctnsw/which_parks_are_best_for_home_runs/) for info related to batter vs pitcher friendly parks.
**Anti-Reasoning**: Paul is a young pitcher pitching in only his 3rd game at the major level. Such pitchers are prone to inconsistency. Despite that I may add an additional unit to this POTD.
[Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
**Pre-Game Edit**: FanDuel just released their Outs Recorded prop at a better price: -110. Added another 3.3u/3u. Added link to article about PIT's tired bullpen and the need for Skenes to go longer than 6IP. Line is shifting at other major books it seems to O/U 17.5 Outs. FanDuel still has it at O/U 16.5 as of 10:20am EST.
POTD Record: 26-18 ❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 16.5U
Last pick: New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers | 1:50pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Sunia Turuva anytime tryscorer @1.83 on Sportsbet | 4U❌
This game was a shit show for the panthers …
Today’s pick: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Dragons | 7:50pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Zac Lomax anytime tryscorer @2.2 on Ladbrokes | 4U
He did us good last week. Lomax on the wing again, very dangerous player this season. He scored 7 tries in 10 appearances. Bulldogs are a solid team so that should be a close one but Dragons should still be able to score a couple, and to me, Lomax has higher chances to score than any other players on the dragons side. I’ll put my $ on him tonight.
Also really like Addo-Carr and Kiraz to score for the dogs.
BOL !
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 15-18 (-1.30 units)**
**Last 10**: **✅❌✅❌✅✅❌❌❌✅**
**Last Pick**: Andreas Harrysson & Andrew Davidson over 5.5 (-175) **✅** 4-3
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 11:35 AM EST
**Pick**: Andrew Davidson & Andreas Harrysson over 5.5 (-200)
* Series 7. Week 13. Group C (Championship Week)
**Reason**: Beau Greaves won group A as expected. Harrysson got hot yesterday, but just missed out on group B. Now we start with clean slate in group C. Davidson has played in 14/15 overs. Harrysson has played in 12/15 overs. Davidson leads the series 2-1 with each match going 7 legs. They have matched up well, so running it back.
Andrew Davidson
* Record 5-10
* Legs 46-52
* Average 88.60
* 180s 12. 140s 64
* Checkouts 46/144 31.94%
Andreas Harrysson
* Record 7-8
* Legs 49-47
* Average 92.18
* 180s 19. 140s 76
* Checkouts 49/125 39.20%
**LOSS ❌ 4-1**
Average 97.78 vs 81.12. Checkouts 4/9 vs 1/3
Dud. First three legs went with throw and then Davidson broke the 4th with a 13 darter. Cleaned up the 5th. One hot leg sunk this bet.
POTD Record: 13-9-0
Form:❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Mavericks @ Timberwolves Total Under 209❌
Pick of the day: Pacers +9.5
Tail with caution as the only reason im taking this is Boston lost both game 2s at home in their series against miami and the series against cavs. Taking the points for insurance in case of another close loss.
Record: 8W-6L-0P ✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌
Net Units: +3.7 units
Last Pick: 5/10 | Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves; Naz Reid over 10.5 points❌
Today’s Game: NBA playoffs | Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics | 8:00pm ET
Pick: Obi Toppin over 14.5 PRA | -115 BetMGM | 4 units
Write Up: Obi Toppin has been extremely impactful for the Pacers throughout the playoffs. In game one against the Celtics, he scored 15 points in 21 minutes off the bench, as well as racking up 6 R+A. His athleticism and ability to knock down key threes has allowed him to be a major factor in Indiana’s 2nd unit success. They will need him to continue to provide quality minutes in order to stand a chance against this Celtics team. I see the pacers continuing to keep him involved and hit this line easily.
Let’s get this dub!
2024 MLB POTD record: 23-19 Average Odds -100 (2.003), Average Winning Odds -105, ROI +6.8%/+2.87u
L5: ❌✅✅❌❌
POTD (5/22) SEA @ NYY Bryce Miller u16.5 Outs (-105/1.96) ❌
Recap: Well, Miller got hit hard, but hit hard *efficiently*: all five of his runs given up were via the home run, so he was allowed to finish the sixth.
POTD (5/23) TOR @ DET Jack Flaherty o17.5 Outs (-115/1.87) (DraftKings)
I'm a bit thrown by this line for Flaherty. Toronto sees the third-most pitches per plate appearance in baseball, sure. but every other indicator is that this line should be much shorter.
Toronto is a below-average team (97 wRC+) against RHP this season. On the road, that plummets to 78, 4th-worst in baseball. Flaherty has gone 6 full innings in 8/9 starts this year. Pitch count hasn't been an issue as he's thrown 97+ pitches in 6 of his last 7 starts, the 7th being a 93-pitch start in which he tossed 14 Ks in 6.2 scoreless IP. Flaherty has been the model of consistency this year and Toronto simply isn't good enough to merit coin-flip odds that he goes over a line he's hit in 8/9 starts this year.
**POTD** Record: 18-1-17
CAGLIARI VS FIORENTINA
Date: 23 May 2024 at 20:45
BET ON: Both teams to score- Yes
Odd: 1.65
- Fiorentina haven’t yet secured a European placement in Serie A which is why they still need to win in Cagliari on Thursday.
- Tuttosport reports that coach Vincenzo Italiano is considering resting some starters ahead of the Conference League final against Olimpiacos. These are captain Cristiano Biraghi , Giacomo Bonaventura and Nico Gonzalez , who could start the match starting from the bench. We'll see if the coach confirms the sensations of the day preceding the last outing of the rossoblù and viola.
- Cagliari is approaching the match against Fiorentina which will have a particular flavour. Not only for the salvation achieved in the last round of Serie A against Sassuolo. The match against Viola will be Claudio Ranieri 's last on the bench as he has decided to say goodbye to Sardinia for the second time.
"I am proud of you, I hope I have been a worthy representative of Sardinia. There will be the last match, at night, and I will hug you warmly." Said coach Claudio Ranieri.
"We need points to secure 8th place and have Fiorentina participate in a cup again. Tomorrow we will focus totally on the championship, we cannot abandon it. The final gives us the opportunity to stay focused and attentive, we can't switch off: in Cagliari we will have to play a real match." Said Viola coach Vincenzo Italiano.
- We expect a festive game with goals from both sides. It won't be easy for the Viola to win, Cagliari are motivated and will play for coach Ranieri, they'll play freely and aggressively.
Not sure why this is being downvoted. Seems like a solid bet not only because of their quotes but how often these teams have been scoring recently. Tailing!
**Pick of the Day - May 23rd**
Record: 2-0-0\*
Net Units: +4.83 units
[***Baseball / Japan Baseball / 5:00am EST***](https://www.sofascore.com/en-us/baseball/match/yokohama-dena-baystars-tokyo-yakult-swallows/iRBskRB#id:11985943)
Pick:
**Over 4 Runs (First 5 Innings)** Yokohama Dena Baystars @ Tokyo Yakult Swallows @ 1.91 via FanDuel
Recap / Write Up:
Other than a rocky start Q1, previous pick Chemnitz 99 ML cashed sweat free. Congrats to all who tailed. I was looking at Liaoning ML again for yesterday's POTD to take them on a series sweep; unfortunately ended up buried at work and POTD thread for Wed was not open when I had time to make the post :( If anyone knows the approx time this thread opens daily, please share below so I can plan better around it. (I checked at \~7/8pm and didn't see anything...why so late??)
For today, we have a match-up in 2hrs that you'll need to catch pre-match before the option closes. I will be risking 1 unit.
If the O/U on this match was set at 7, I'd be taking that route, however, the hook turns me off because I believe this match is likely to be a 7-8 run match-up. I also favor Swallows to take the W so we'll possibly lose the opportunity to see a bottom of the 9th. If you see the line drop to a flat 7 and odds are > 1.90, I would find that to be attractive, but would still rank >4 runs first 5 higher.
4+ total runs in the first 5 innings has been covered in 4/5 of the past match-ups between these two teams. In the one where it was not covered, the full game only reached a total of 3 runs.
BOL if tailing.
\*You can verify my record by viewing prior posts in my comments. Wins are noted by a ✅ and losses by a ❌ in the headline of each post.
p.s. I apologize that my posts are so close to start time...once I have a better idea of when the thread opens I'll hopefully be able to avoid that going forward lol.
Record: 7-6
Last 10: WLWWWLLLWW
Net units: -.75
ROI: 0%
MLB: Seattle Mariner @ New York Yankees 12:36(EDT)
Pick: NRFI -120 @ FD 1.2
to win 1
Once again, I’m going to pick against one of the scariest YRFI teams.
The exasperated curses of Yankee fans everywhere could be heard when Cole went to the IL. While you can still hear them muttering under their breath, Gil has eased their pain. He is stepping into the limelight and his stuff has been exciting and he’s sporting a legit 2.39 ERA. His fastball and slider are elite and he’s coming off a 13K performance. Seattle is batting .229 against righties.
Castillo is a known quantity and a 3X All-Star. He likes a big stage and he’s got the 4 seamer (95 mph) and an elite change-up (88 mph) Hasn’t allowed a first inning run to the Yankees over the last 3 season (4 starts)
9mph out to right
BOL to all
POTD Record: 11-7-1
Previous POTD: Tanner Houck over 17.5 PO’s - ❌
Houck finished on 17. After 2 decent 4 and 3 win runs, I hit my first rough patch with 3 straight losses. Stopped posting for a few days and I began bouncing back, let’s see if I still have the magic or my posts are cursed.
Today’s POTD: Jack Flaherty over 17.5 PO’s (-125 on DK)
Baseball | MLB | TOR Blue Jays v DET Tigers | 6:40 PM ET
Was going to go with the under on the pirates and giants but the line moved down and I don’t like it. So I’m going back to my usual strategy. Flaherty has covered this line 8/9 starts this season and is going up against a TOR squad that has been mediocre against RHP’s, boasting a bottom 10 batting average against them. The tigers have gone deeper into their bull pens lately so I expect Flaherty to have a longer leash and stay on the mound long enough to cover.
Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
POTD Record: 5W - 0P - 2L
Last Pick: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-122 via DK)
**Today's Pick:** **Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5** (+124 via DK)
Event: MLB San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates 12:35 PM
The Pirates are hot with a 4-1 record in their last five games. Rookie pitcher Paul Skenes is set for his third career start this afternoon. In his first 10 innings, Skenes has racked up 18 strikeouts while allowing just three walks. His last outing was particularly impressive, as he left the game after six no-hit innings. With Skenes on the mound, this team is poised for another strong performance as the Giants will struggle to score.
Let's keep the early streak going, building my portfolio up here and excited compete with the best in this reddit thread.
**2024 POTD Record:** 2-1
**Last POTD:** Chicago Cubs ML (+105) ✅ | **LAST 5** - ✅✅❌️
**Today's POTD:** Phillies -1.5 (-105) ESPN BET
Baseball | MLB | DELAYED (at the moment) - 5/23/24
**Fast Analysis:** It's a last minute pick as the game is currently delayed. Hopefully some eyeballs see this before the game kicks off or even an early live bet should be good too! Zack Wheeler has been outstanding this season and is more favored at home with an 1.63 ERA and his 0.83 WHIP. The Rangers are missing a sizable amount of key starting pitchers to injuries and have been struggling as of lately.
Good luck everyone!
**POTD Record:** 3-1
**Net Units:** +7.92u
**Last Pick:** Christian Braun Over 9.5 Players Points + Assists + Rebounds, 3 Units at 1.95 ✅
**Today's Pick:** Basketball | NBA | IND @ BOS 8pm EST
* **Pacers 1st Quarter Team Total OVER 27.5 POINTS, 2 Units at 1.83**
**Write Up:**
Covered last game despite the Pacers not scoring for the first few minutes of the game. Indiana has a tremendous record with this line and typically like to get off running early to set the tone for the game, running off of both makes and misses.
Boston has a tendency to start slow defensively and they also give significant 1Q minutes to defensive liabilities like Sam Hauser and Luke Kornet.
Line has moved in the right direction, as I managed to get some action in at a lower number yesterday. Jump on this one while you can.
Side note: If I made a BuyMeACoffee is that cringe? I know it's only been 4 picks I don't wanna get ahead of myself here.
2024 record: 5-2
Last POTD: New York Yankees ML -148 ✅
Baseball | MLB
Recap: That makes three wins in a row! We got a streak going! The game went exactly how we thought it would, a pretty clean win for the Yankees.
Nothing for tomorrow since the slate is small and it's been pretty busy at work. Not going to force anything so see you guys for the next POTD!
POTD Record: 2-3
2023 Record: 1-3
2024 Record: 2-0
Form: WW
Net Units: +2.8
Last pick - Maastricht ML
Pick: Bochum - Fortuna Dusseldorf BTTS betting 2 units to win 1.4 units
BTTS hit in 10/12 home games for Bochum this year and in 9/13 away games for Dusseldorf. Both can score and both leak goals. Both teams should be extra motivated for the full 90 minutes as this is the 1st leg of the relegation/promotion playoff
**Record 2024: 18-0-17**
**Net Units Played 2024: 168**
**ROI 2024: -12.73%**
**Last Pick:** **BC Kalev** - Tartu Ulikool **1st quarter H1 -3.5**, 5 units, @ 2.02 ❌️
Basketball / Portugal playoffs / 21:00 / (CEST)
**Pick:** **Porto** - Ovarense **1st quarter H1 -3.5**, 5 units, @ 1.78 ✅️
**Write-up:** Not much to say here except that in the second game Porto needs a desperate win since they lost 70-73 in the first. And they lost after being up 11 points in the 1st Q.
I think they can repeat their strong start.
EDIT: 20-15
**Record:** 3-7 (-4.33 unit)
**Last POTD:** Luka Doncic over 28.5 pts ✅
**Today's Pick:** Obi Toppin over 8.5 points on Fanduel -125
**Bet:** 1 unit size to win 0.80 units
**Basketball | NBA | 8:00 PM ET**
**Recap:** Luka had me sweating for a second there. Shooting 1/7 behind the arc but then went off in the fourth. We keep moving!
**Write up:** I have a love hate relationship with Obi. When I bet on him, he fails, and when I dont, I get to watch him shoot lights out. We are going back! In the last 20 games, he has hit this over in 75% of games. He has played boston 6 times this season, all 6 times he has hit this over. Let's see 7!
POD record: 7-6
Last pick: Luka over 8.5 rebs LOSS
Today pick: Phillies -1.5 over Rangers (-105)
Welp, guess the data just doesn’t matter. Luka missed this rebound line for the first time in the last 6 games. Onto baseball. The Phillies are red hot - hottest team in the MLB. Rangers are on a three game losing streak. Game is in Philly, so I see them easily hitting this line. BOL.
POTD Record: 6-2
Last Pick: Atalanta vs Beyer Leverkusen BTTS ❌ | Still can’t believe that one went lame after the fast start. Feels impossible to me that Leverkusen wasn’t able to slip a goal in during the process of getting routed.
Today’s Pick: Andrew Heaney (TEX) OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Analysis: If you follow the Rangers this may seem like an odd pick upon first glance as Heaney is 0-5 this season in his starts. However, the 32 year old lefty still averages just under a K per inning this season with 44 Ks in 44.2 IP. The Phillies strikeout more than any other team in the league with 162 Ks. The next closest team has 140! Schwarber, Harper, Castellanos, and Marsh are all in the top 15 in the league this season for strikeouts against lefties. With this play we are really just hoping Heaney can get to 5 innings, make it more than 1.5 times through the Phillies lineup, and pick up a strikeout per inning as he’s done all year. In his past 6 starts, Heaney has struck out 5 or more in 5 of 6 so I see no reason why he can’t easily get to 5 in this early afternoon game. Trust the Phillies to keep whiffing and bag this one early.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
2024 MLB record: 31-9-1 Last POTD: Rockies ML W Today's POTD: Seattle mariner vs ny Yankees under 8.5 -115 (mgm) Baseball. MLB. 12:35 PM EST Holy fucking shit that was sweaty but awesome. Possibly my wildest POTD that ended up being worth staying up to watch two shitty teams go 12 innings. Pumped we were able to get it at +124 by first pitch. Anyway writing this on my phone from bed at the conference so it’s gonna be brief. Roi and spreadsheet on hiatus until I get back but I like the under in this game. Gil is a strikeout machine and Seattle strikes out at almost a 30’percenr clip. Castillo as a 2.82 career era vs Yankees and the Yankees day game average is their weakest split. Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cash app, chuteboxhero on PayPal (DM for Venmo) EDIT: I originally got this at 8.5 on fanduel but it went down to 8 everywhere when I made this post at 1 am lol. As u/code_u24 pointed out, MGM has it at 8.5 right now at -115. Still love 8 but -115 for 8.5 is even better than I got it for so jump on that if you can.
Well fuck Chute, that last bet man… imploded the fucking candle. I’m gonna have to break it into pieces and put it in a wax burner now. I was at work, game looking good. Then Rockies switch pitchers, bad fucking move. I see the A’s tie the mother fucker. I call up the wife. No answer. I’m in the middle of a team meeting. Griping my melachite saying to myself, “strike ass strike ass strike ass,” each time the A’s are up to bat. Finally the wife gets back to me. The candle is in bad shape. So she had to improvise in order to get that wax to melt. So she put another candle underneath the mystic bees wax candle. The Rockies score twice. I take a breath. Knowing this is in the bag. Suddenly the A’s score. Like you son of a butch so I whip of the malachite again murmuring to myself during this team meeting. Strike fucking ass let’s go damnit. Finally it happened. After another pitcher swap. As for the candle though. Might have to look for another. https://preview.redd.it/w8ofb93a742d1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e5fdc1a2fd6196ef721ae8afd062a6c9787b35f8
This is why I love Reddit 🤣
We might be in the shits tomorrow now due to a candle being placed on the IR
https://preview.redd.it/3lzpzi60o52d1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ec4f0a83febea8c31712a669279cb3d5eb86c4bf
Rip candle, sacrifice will not be forgotten
This is my religion now
When you find another let me know so I too can light the candle
Holy Candle 🕯️
isnt your last POTD is the rockies? That 9th inning made my heart drop lmao. Glad they got it on OT
yeah hes copying from his phone so probably why
Yeah my bad there lol
Thank God I used the up 2 promo. Was able to go to bed like 5 minutes into the game 😅 glad it still cashed out overall though!
Cash it!
We aren’t worthy
Would you take F5 u4.5 (-125) also? Not sure about either teams bullpen for this game but would hate to get rocked by them
I'll be rocking that instead of under 8.0. Let the studs deal and not worry about the bullpen
Great fucking call on the alt play.
8.5 available at ESPN Bet for -130 if you want to avoid the push and give up a little profit.
Take it!
If I were gay…
my bankroll has been absolutely destroyed this month, please save me chute 😔 ur like the last air bender
THE GOAT!!! hey, can someone point me a good site to have stats of games and players ? thanks in advance!
What is the main reason for under 8 on this one? I’m trying to understand the pick and baseball more? Just considering their last 3 games have all went around 9-10 runs?
Two stud pitchers for each team who are really good, and Mariners offense sucks ass
Particularly they strike out the most of any teams and Gil is a top 10 strikeout percentage pitcher
Pitchers matter. A lot.
sweaty as fuck but we did it! that 2 run hr saved our ass
For sure great pick woke the wife up screaming in bed watching the last 3 inning on my phone lol
So much confidence in you I laddered 1st, 5th, and total unders. Thank you kind sir, now let's finish this game off strong.
Little nervous about it cus of the way the under panned out night before last. I fear bullpens
That was a god awful pick last night. Gil and Castillo are light years ahead of Corbin’s bitch ass
Currently u8.5 at -115 on MGM, for those looking for a non-push line.
Thankfully used my 2UP on the Rockies and slept like a baby.
Major sweat but badass!
Goat!!!!
Jesus SEA, just get outta the 7th and I'll feel better.
Real talk. Do you cash out when it's only. 4-5$ difference to avoid a bad beat?
I never cash out
chute, what do you think about posting a 3-5 team parlay every once in awhile? Even 2 teams would be great value with your expertise!
Lisan Al gaib 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
Once again, you da man! Now I've got all day to think of another baseball bet. O's -2 @ -125 worth a squeeze?
Tailing
Absolute banger yesterday. got at +115, saw +125 available and put more down.
last leg jfc. I can’t believe they didn’t throw Mason Miller! What a fucking rush. Hell yeah. https://imgur.com/a/a13NO49
is the under 8, 2-way? does it push if its exactly 8 runs?
🐐
Tailing
Just gotta make it through the bullpen and we're eating!
Great pick! Never a doubt!
another great pick sir! thankyou until tomrrow
Cuz he’s the chutebox hero na na dubee dooo the chutebox heroooo na na dubedoo!!!
Another no sweat bet Lets goooo!
https://preview.redd.it/pvw7bdg3s32d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=47ff1bf9db070e9309ef9959850ddb0eb6923294 WE miss you Grampa 😔
I’ve been a part of this sub for a little over a year I think. This is the most community connected it has ever been. When Grampa disappeared I was devastated. We need to get him back. He’s family.
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Chute in the lab! Let him cook 👨🏼🍳
I'm in here every day hoping to see him posting again 😭
Probably just fell asleep
Lmao
Record 21-12-0 Net Units: +22.3 ROI: 21.7% Last 10: ❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Mavericks 1H Total Team Points under 52.5 (-115) for 3.0 units ❌ Event: Basketball | NBA | Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics 7:00PM CST Pick: Indiana Pacers 1st Half Total Team Points over 54.5 (-118) on DraftKings for 3.0 units Write Up: RUN IT BACK…AGAIN! Pacers leading all teams in the first half at 60.9 points. Scored 64 points in the first half of Game 1 that included a 3:24 stretch to start the game without scoring and a 2:02 stretch to start the second quarter without scoring. Tip Welcome: Venmo/Paypal link in profile. Best of Luck! 🎰
"Pacers first half over" this one weird trick that sportsbooks hate!
Been printing $$$ 😊
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I don’t envision it going over 55.5 so I would maybe wait and see if it comes back down to 54.5 (unless you have access to alternative lines). Don’t love 55.5 unless you can get it at even money or more, from a value standpoint.
So you’re expecting precisely 55? If this ages well I’ll be truly shook
No that’s not what I was saying. I don’t think the value is there as much at 55.5, unless it’s even money or plus odds
I was just clowning mate, I’m tailing regardless unless we’re betting unders again. They seem to be misfortunate
o55.5 on Fanduel for even money. Thanks for the picks. Pacers gonna drop 60.
gonna make this bet today, can't wait to screw it up for y'all. feels like a trap line. Celtics almost lost a game 1 at home, i feel like theyre really gonna put on a show tonight. but who tf knows
0 points in 2 min holy fuck need a miracle
Brutal ass second quarter, was on pace after first but pacers decided to not score for the first 5min
Pretty solid bro
I love this and can’t bet. Fuckin SC.
ive been the victim of some pretty brutal bad beats before but damn that was rough. still ended the quarter with 51 points literally anything in the first 6 mintues of the quarter and its an easy cash unbelievable lol
We had a good run guys... 
POTD Record: 61 - 35 Last POTD: Ruud 1st/ML - L Pick: Alexander Bublik ML vs Pavel Kotov (+112 odds via FD) 1U Event: ATP Lyon Quarterfinal 7:00 A.M. CST Bublik doesn't particularly love clay however he is in a good head space mentally and looked great in his first round match against Vukic. Bublik is up to ATP world number 19 while his opponent sits at number 57. Both of these players have a tendency to spiral however I like the way Bublik is playing and if anything, he will get the crowd on his side, and French crowds tend to be rowdy. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
No way this dude was up 4-1 in both sets and blew both. Swear every day with tennis I see crazier and crazier shit
You can’t make it up. What an unbelievable choke job in both sets
What a SWEAT I live for this shit!!!
ayoooo lets go
He really gonna double fault as soon as tie break starts smh
POTD Record: 12-6 (+5.45 U) Last 10: ✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅ Last Pick: Braves ML vs Cubs ✅ Today's Pick: Myles Turner O 8.5 Rebounds + Assists vs Celtics (1.76) Basketball | NBA | 8:00pm ET Tight game until the Braves put up 6 runs in the 7th inning and cruised to a 9-2 win. Love to see it. Travel day in the MLB so we'll go to the NBA Playoffs. I'll be targeting the Pacers Center Myles Turner to grab us some boards. The Celtics are without their 7'3 Center Kristaps Porzingis again in game 2, which leaves Al Horford as their Center. He's old and shorter than Myles Turner, it's a great matchup to take advantage of. He had 14 RA in Game 1, 13 of them in regular time. Myles Turner had 10 Rebounds with a game high 17 Potential Rebounds. If he gets this many potentials in game 2, I'm confident he gets more than 10 Rebounds. He also picked up 4 Assists on 5 Potentials, and has had 1+ Assist in every playoff game, so I'll take the upside for another multi assist game. TLDR: Love the matchup for Myles Turner against Al Horford BOL if you choose to tail 🫡
I like the cut of your jib. I’m in
Thanks for the compliment of my jib, BOL
Tailing !
BOL, tailing the Lomax pick as well 👍
My book doesn't offer 8.5RA but does offer 9.5RA and 7R, which would you suggest? I'm leaning towards the 7R but please let me know your take, thanks! Edit: It also offers 1.5A if that changes anything, thanks man.
I think he hits both, but I'd lean RA, he's had 2+ assists in 9/14 this playoffs. Just take whichever one has better odds.
Well this is god awful 😂😂
**Record:** 3-2 **Net Units:** +0.3u **My Betting Process:** In a nutshell, I have a tennis model that predicts the winning odds of each player in the matches that I analyze. When there is at least a 5% gap between the offered win odds and my model-implied win odds, I will make a bet and use the Kelly criterion for bet sizing (I use the lesser of 1/10 Kelly and 3 units, recognizing that my model is a work in progress and my edge is uncertain). Before making a bet, however, I review a player’s match logs to ensure that they are not injured or otherwise in terrible form. This helps me to avoid value traps but is far from foolproof. **Last Pick:** Rebecca Sramkova ML (-155) vs. Linda Fruhvirtova. Sramkova won in split sets and our thin value bet paid off! ✅ **Event:** ATP Lyon | Luciano Darderi vs. Arthur Rinderknech (tennis) **Time:** 6:20am EDT **Pick:** Luciano Darderi ML (-155) **Units:** 2.5 units **Write Up:** Darderi is in good form, having won 8 of his last 10 matches dating back to early May. His opponent, Arthur Rinderknech, is also in decent form, having won his last two matches including an impressive straight sets win over Francis Tiafoe. At -155 odds, we’re getting implied win odds of 60.8% on Darderi. My model has his win odds at \~70.4%, representing a 10% gap in our favor. I do not have any reason to distrust my model as neither competitor appears to be injured and both have been playing on clay for months. Given the size of my perceived edge, I am putting a 2.5 unit bet on the Darderi moneyline. Good luck to anyone tailing! **Update:** This one ended up being a walkover so if anyone sees this I would recommend the Alexander Bublik ML (+110) vs. Pavel Katov (1 unit). **2nd Update:** Bewbs won an up-and-down 3-setter. ✅
Tiafoe has been on a really bad streak lately, so winning against him isn't really that impressive, which supports more your pick, tailing my man!
> I do not have any reason to distrust my model Isn’t the fact your model’s losing money a reason to distrust your model
Hi- appreciate the feedback. My model was showing a decent profit until a major downswing yesterday. Those things will happen. I’m only 215 bets into this model and I’ve already had downswings of 20+ units. I’ve also had upswings of 20+ units. I’m aiming to get about 1,000 bets under my belt before I make a conclusive judgment one way or another. Best of luck!
Tailing brother, let's get that win!
walkover
Too bad!
Record: 13-5 Total Units: +7.38 Last Pick Celtics vs Pacers 3rd Quarter Total o54.5 We did it! Easy dub. Amazing game. I was going absolutely wild when JB hit that 3!!! Bleeding green for #18!!! Today's Game: Celtics vs Pacers 8:00 PM EST Today's Pick: TJ McConnell o9.5 points at -120(DK) Reasoning: First off, TJ had a very impactful game in game one. He came in and brought that energy and steadied the ship when Haliburton was turning the ball over. McConnell only had one turnover last game so I expect him to get the same impactful minutes. He's gone over this line in 7 out of the last 9 games(7 out of 10 to be fair, but also 7-9). There's a ton of value here. Coach Carlisle is going to Lean on his veteran presence and defensive energy so I see him playing at least 24/25 minutes again. I know everybody saw the super high scoring game one and some people think that the series will be like that, but I'm just forewarning you. I also expect tonight to go under 225. Again, that's not my pick of the day but it's something I will be playing on the side. That being said, tail or fade, just do so responsibly! ***LET'S GO CELTICS!!!***
To me it looks like he's only hit this 6/10 times in the last 10 games. But maybe I missed something.
Exactly ten games, he's gotten double digits in 7 of them. https://preview.redd.it/dxelufui272d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=60ed73c03f8be2082c184997c377afc37f9a26a8
the time has come to sweat
MLB 2024 Record: 4-2 Streak: W3 Last pick: Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins Under 8 -160 🔥🔥(Wow what a sweat free one that last one was! Only 1 run scored the entire game haha the starters dominated as suspected.) This pick: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees Under 8 -112 Reasoning: For today we will be going to Yankee stadium for the earliest game on the sleight with the Yankees and Luis Gil hosting Luis Castillo and the mariners. I like this pick because both starters have been dominating as of late and Castillo in his career has always pitched well vs the Yankees, and Gil should continue to do well vs a mariners lineup that is very up and down and prone to not scoring many runs. (I also like Yankees ML here or possibly the over for Gil strikeouts prop, just a bit riskier in a different way) Not too much to choose from on the sleight that really feels like a huge slam dunk besides this play, possibly the over in Rockies/A’s or over in Cincinnati but I like the under in the Yankees game for today the most. As always best of luck for all your gambling endeavors! If you want to tip me pm for my Zelle ! Thanks guys ☄️
Can get 8.5 for -130 at ESPN Bet to avoid the push.
thoughts on first 5 innings under 4.5?
**Record: 3-0** ✅✅✅ **Last POTD: Football** | **UEFA Europa League** | **21:00/ CET / Leverkusen vs Atalanta** Total offsides under 4.5 @ 1.5✅ **Today's POTD: Football** | **Superettan Swedish league league** | 19:00 **CET IK Brage vs Degerfors** **Pick:** **Over 9.5 corners** (both teams total) @ 1.52 cloudbet **Write Up:** There's an 88% chance that the game will have over 9.5 corners. Also, in all of IK Brage's matches this season, the total corners between them and the team against they play have always exceeded 9.5. **Why Bet on Over 9.5 Corners?** * **High Consistency:** IK Brage's games always go over 9.5 corners this season. * **Strong Odds:** An 88% probability makes this a solid bet. BOL my friends and lets get this straight to 100-0. :P [https://buymeacoffee.com/teddycucumber](https://buymeacoffee.com/teddycucumber) I love reading books so if you feel generous it will be highly appreciated <3 EDIT: STARTING TIME EDITED, my bad ! BOL once again EDIT #2 : ODDS were not added, sorry, I'm new here <3
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I watched the whole game. The amount of times the Rockies had people on bases and couldn’t put the runs in was insane. I think taking over 8 is smart here.
What a sweat. It took all 9 innings but it hit.
Lets goooooo. Was getting nervous but good shit brotha!
Talk about a nail biter. Nice pick!
My Pick of the Day Record: 21W - 17L | Profit in Units: +18.14 My pick of the day: Cagliari vs fiorentina// Cagilari double chance 1X// odds:2.09//+109 bet 5 units REFRESHING AFTER THAT LOSS TO BREAK THE STREAK OF WINS. THE REASON WE LOST IS BECAUSE I BET A PUSSY BET ODDS:1.7 ARE MORE SAFE THAN RISKY AND THAT DOESN'T SIT RIGHT WITH THE BIG BALLS ENERGY. THE BIG BALLS ENERGY IS HAVING SO MUCH FAITH TO DO THE INCREDIBLY RISKY DECISION KNOWING THAT IT WILL BE IN YOUR FAVOUR. EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED IN THE JUVENTUS GAME WE TOOK THE HIGHEST ODD BET IN 1X2 KNOWING THAT IT IS A DRAW AND THAT IT IS WHAT WE DO TODAY It is refreshing none the less to lose, it's like taking a vacation away from work and to reflect and get some leisure time. BUT WE GO BACK HARDER THAN EVER, TO THE TOP, TO ROB THE CASINOS, TO VICTORY WE MARCH REASONING: First Fiorentina hasn't been able to beat cagilari in their home stadium and this goes backkkkk. In fact, cagilari has beat fiorentina in their home stadium multiple times, but fiorentina has only been able to squeeze a draw (2D 2L) Furthermore, Cagliari are undefeated in the last 6 games at home going against good teams like ATALANTA (who ended bayern leverkusen's undefeated streak yesterday ) and winning 2-1, 2-2 against juventus, 1-1 against napoli Teams that were able ot be cagliari at home are always solid teams, like Lazio who are literally the 1 day who are either tigers or cats and have unpredictable playstyles, Ac milan inter roma all solid italian teams. But when it comes to fiorentina they are literally to play the UEFA EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE FINAL, which is their most important match and that will be 1 week from now. They have nothing to achieve with this game, They are less focused while cagliari needs to end their season with what could be their highest rating in the table if they win this game. This bet is a solid easy W, BIG BALLERS OUR TIME TO ATTACK THE CASINO WITH 1 POWERFUL BLOW, MAIN BET DOUBLE CHANCE, SIDE BET DRAW, TOP BET 1-1 LETS FUCKING CASH give your roses to the godfather: [Paypal.me/thegodfather28](http://Paypal.me/thegodfather28) Edit: obviously the referee had to rig it at the end there adding 7 extra minutes on top of the 5 extra minutes, giving a very skeptical penalty. as I watched the game I just couldn't help but notice the referee keeping the game alive when it was done, he wanted fiorentina to win and he made sure that happens,
Brotha your energy got me retaining my semen now.
A man's whole aim in life is to inspire, to do his very best so others can notice and say hey I want to be like this guy what does he do? I am grateful to god that me writing a post has lead you to a path of self-discipline. What can you expect from retention? everything and nothing.
Yo was that game fixed 😂 wtf just happened
100% rigged, young ref playing over 10 mins OT even if given was 5 and a pen in the 11th additional minute from again 5, the hell, 3 goals not given for cag, the fuck glad i cashed at 95% of payout, tho
i don’t know who or what anything is in that bet but this writeup is great
Lol wtf
warning: fade
Im tailing hope this one cashhhh
90+13 penalty?? LOL wtf
Cagliari achieved safety last match and have nothing to play for they’re already on vacation. Fiorentina need to keep winning to maintain a European slot for next year and the conference league final isn’t for a week.
What the fuck was that ending! I got in Double Chance Cagliari Draw at +275 at half and felt great only to have a penalty given at 90+8 when only +5 was allotted. Fucking Italians.
5 - 2 +3.08U / +25.6% ROI 🏀 NBA | Indiana Pacers vs Boston Celtics 8:00PM EST Total over 218.5 -200 3U Last game between these high-scoring teams ended at 261 (234 not including OT). Throughout this ‘23 - ‘24 year they’ve averaged 245 pts against each other, lowest being 219.
Pushing the limits and taking over 230 for 2.40
Celtics fan here. Agreed !
POTD record : 2-1 / Units: +0.57 / Wins: 2 Only 1 unit picks Previous POTD: Djokovic vs Hanfmann under19.5 games ✅ Nole managed to come back from 0-3 in the 2nd set and went on to win 6 games in a row while displaying some quality tennis to secure the win . Streak: WWL Today’s POTD: **under [email protected](-125)**✅ WTA Strasbourg **Danielle Collins vs Clara Burel** 8AM est time Reasoning: Going with the good form that Collins showed on clay courts in the last month . She thrashed Siniakova yesterday and I'm expecting her to do the same thing to Burel today. Even if the french showed improvements in her game and managed to get wins against Svitolina and Pliskova in the last few days , I don't think her game will be strong enough to impose problems for Collins. Banking on the american's good serve and returns. Score prediction : 6-3 6-2 If tailing please bet responsibly thanks BOL !! see more picks in the tennis thread
Why didn't I bet the house on this??? Collins is a grown ass woman vs a kid. I need to learn me some tennis.
Thanks for the cash! You were only 1 game off from your prediction.
POTD Record : 26-14 Last 7 - ✅✅🤡✅🤡✅✅ Last pick: WTA Strasbourg Danielle Collins -3.5 (-135) vs Katerina Siniakova 0400am EST ✅ POTD - ATP Geneva Alexander Shevchenko vs Flavio Cobolli ML (-150) 1320 EST 1unit✅ I Would love to ride Danielle Collins again but the odds are too juicy so we got #61 vs #56 Cobolili. Cobolili is coming off an impressive win against Ben Shelton. These two have similar styles but Cobolili has a monster serve. His ability to cover the court and turning defense into offense will put a lot of pressure on Shevchenko. BOL Guys. Edit Cash Easy day!
Been a little over 6 month since my last pick : Current Record 2-2 Last POTD: BTTS Pattaya Dolphins United 1st half ML (+210) @ Chanthaburi FC Thailand Division 2 **Today’s POTD** **Arda vs Slavia Sofia | BTTS 1st Half (+450), Bulgaria Parva Liga, Conference League Group | Kick Off 8:15am ET** Reasoning: Slavia Sofia has been finding the back of the net recently, while Arda hasn’t been able to put together goals. The head to head streaks with these teams point to a low scoring affair, but they do have a few past matchups that have ended 3-2 which is exactly how i think this one ends.. I think Arda finds form tomorrow while Slavia Sofia still have no problem finding the net. (it’s +450 for a reason) Tail or fade and hopefully early goals in Bulgaria :) BTTS HIT IN THE 41st minute ! ✅✅✅✅
**Record 99-1-53 | +56.25u** Form: WWLWWLWWWLW *NRL: Bulldogs vs Dragons / Dragons Total Score under 18.5 $1.84* 2u (SportsBet) 7:50PM AEST --- **I first posted here in March 2019 and here I am 5 years later trying to get the boys the 100th win.** Been very impressed with the Bulldogs defense this year where they've kept 6 teams at 20 points or less, including Penrith and Melbourne. Ciraldo has their line looking rather sharp and they've got absolute workhorses in their mobile forwards King, Hughes and Salmon, who will be able to counter the preferred edge play of the Dragons. The Dragons have only surpassed this amount 3 times in away games this year and have scored most of their tries down that right edge. A lot of them have been freak plays from Hunt and Lomax though, so don't expect it to continue. Xerri may be a weak spot in defense but he's supported by strong defensive players inside him. If your line is 17.5, I'd rather take the Dragons scoring between 11-20 total points. BOL
Winner winner
2024 record 8-3 Last pick: Yankees vs Mariners o 8.5 (W) Maybe too obvious of a pick but taking the Orioles -1.5 and obviously I would also take the other option. Also thank you for the praise. Now I’m scared if I lose I’ll lose reputation and I’ll I feel guilty if my pick loses. I see people get a lot of hate. But I understand. Chow
It’s all good man. Don’t worry about it. We just post what we see and others tail if they like it. It’s on them. BOL
**Record: 15-8 (+4.87u)** **Last Pick: Artturi Lehkonen o2.5 shots on goal -125** Said I'd be back after my week vacation but had a lot going on when I got back, so had to take a bit of a longer break. Let's get back into it! NHL is my fav sport but may not always have a pick I really like with only 1 game on each day so I'll go to other sports when that's the case. **Pick: Yankees/Mariners u8.5 -130 (MLB, 1u bet)** Midday game tomorrow in New York for the last of the 4 game series between the Mariners and Yankees, with the Mariners up 2-1. I know all 3 games have gone over so far (5-4 SEA, 6-3 SEA, 7-3 NYY) but I like the under in the finale. Starting with the pitching matchup of Gil vs Castillo - I've liked what I've seen from both of these guys so far. Gil is 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has gone at least 6 innings in each of his last 4 games without giving up more than 1 earned run, and on top of that he's been great at home (the only game this season where he's given up more than 1 earned run was on the road). He's coming off a 14 strikeout game against the White Sox, and Seattle strikes out at a high rate so I like the matchup for him. Castillo is only 4-5, and with a 3.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. After giving up 4 earned runs in each of his first 3 starts, he hasn't given up more than 2 in 7 straight. He's also had some success against this Yankees lineup, as they're hitting .156 against him. Castillo has played the Yankees three times since joining the Mariners, and the total went under in 2 of those games (the 1 over was because the Mariners hit 3 home runs in a 6-run first inning en route to a 7-3 win). Yes, the Yankees lineup with Judge and Soto can be scary but there is also a chance New York rests someone when they have an early start after playing Wednesday night, and looking ahead to travelling to San Diego. Lastly, both bullpens have been pretty solid this season, especially New York's, so I'm not too worried about bullpens blowing up after the starters come out of the game. This line is 8 at most books right now, I took 8.5 on TheScore Bet but even if your book has 8 you can do the alt under of 8.5 to get the push protection.
**Record:** 11-4 **Net Units:** *+12.75 Units* **Previous Pick: Port Adelaide -7.5 1st Quarter Handicap.** Mentioned how topsy turvy Port Adelaide are as a team and they really proved it. Shouldn't be trusting them at all and I made the mistake of following them in. It's a tricky balance of picking 1 particular play for the POTD thread when you have a slate of 5-6 picks but still learning and still growing, more importantly still profitable and will continue that. **Event**: Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs **Time**: 7:30pm AEST 23/05 **Bookie**: Ladbrokes **Play**: To Score 2+ Goals, Will Hayward. **Odds**: $2 (AUS) or +100 (US) **Units**: 1 Unit **Analysis**: Last play for tonight. We all know that the Swans are in absolutely ELITE form this year, hard to deny. Dogs playing Swans tonight who obviously have been firing on all cylinders but I actually expect tonight to be fairly competitive and probably closer than the odds would indicate. In terms of attacking stats, Bulldogs do have a good offensive pack but clearly Swans are #1 this year, at this point. They win good contested possessions but they also can attack hard off half-back with the likes of Florent and Blakey. Hayward has been on absolute fire for about 5+ weeks now, he's converting at a super high percentage and not only that, he's just being way more attacking and threating in terms of winning the ball. In his last 5 matches, he has kicked 13 goals and against some decent defensive teams like Fremantle and GWS. I think he will get a pretty good matchup tonight given key tall defenders like Jones and O'Donnell will likely be chasing McDonald, Amartey and McLean around. Doggies historically struggle with those crafty half forwards especially in recent weeks with the likes of Banfield (3.1), Bolton (2.1) and Greene (3.0) each kicking over 2 goals against them. In his last 5 games against the dogs, he has kicked 5 goals, 6 behinds. Averaging 2 goals in his last 7/10. I think he's in way better form currently, is playing for a renewed contract and should have plenty of success at ground level and I think he can really compete again tonight. Keen to get back on the winning path for POTD. Let's go! https://preview.redd.it/96kbv79m132d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=18223c354e7b687720592312b39afa5384f61f7d **MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW SO YOU DON'T MISS POST NOTIFICATIONS!**
My book doesn’t have player props for Aussie rules, are there any alternatives you’d feel comfortable with? Often enough the write ups give me a general idea even with no try scorer option but the spread in my book is +8.5 which is a bit close. Too close?
Tailing boss, LESSGEDDITTT
We are back baby. Let’s go! Good luck my friend
Beautiful play. Just 🎯 being of 2nd half. Nice call!
Absolute beaut of a pick, thank you brother!
POTD RECORD: 68-46 Last pick: Derrick Jones Jr O11.5 PR ✅ Another cash fellas by the smallest margin Todays pick: __Jrue Holiday O10.5 RA @1.80__ NBA (Boston Celtics) We move, Jrue absolutely feasted in game 1 in all departments and even scored 28 points which I don’t think the Pacers can let happen again and I do not see him put up another scoring performance like that. But what I do think is he’ll continue to facilitate and be crucial in the defensive end. He went over the RA line with ease, OT bumped the stats a bit or course but not a lot. He got a good amount of potentials and rebound chances which if they converts only makes this pick better. As mentioned on the JB pick was the Pacers single man coverage, but they did in fact send a few double teams where the Celtics ball movement was just too good and resulted in open threes not to mention the transitions for Jrue to find some dimes • 1/1 vs the Pacers in this series (14 RA, 7 Rebs & 8 Ast) • 14 rebound chances & 13 potential assists (27 potential RA) • Over in 5/L10 games • 4/6 against the Pacers this season • Over in 8/L10 games against the Pacers Avg 13.8 RA Let’s go Jrue, let us cash again Tail or fade, you’re the dawg
Tailing!
Like this one. Tailing.
Nice little streak going here
RECORD: 7W 3L UNITS WON: 6.48 LAST PICK: PICK: kyrie 30 PRA ✅ NOTE: Kyrie covered by the 3rd 😜 PICK: Australian rugby league NRL bulldogs -4.5 ✅ BET: 1 unit to win 1.98 on bet365 NOTE: 2 teams with really good striking attack on both sides and they can both score from anywhere this should be a high scoring game, but I think dogs should win by a converted try Game starts in just over 4 hours https://preview.redd.it/uzdtj6m7742d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=74984a6c65ff7937aa08da9fe14c70d46274f4b3
\*\*Pick Record: 4W ✅ - 1L Previous POTD: Hugo Gaston vs Francisco Cerundolo over 20.5 games at 1.70 odds ✅ Today’s POTD: Giovanni Perricard ML at 1.72 vs Hugo Gaston✅✅✅✅✅ League/ Sport: Tennis / ATP Lyon Perricard es la promesa francesa del Tennis actual. Es un jugador muy hábil, joven y viene de ganarle a Sonego quien es un jugador más experimentado. Hugo Gaston ayer le ganó a Cerundolo en un match que prácticamente Cerundolo regaló inexplicablemente y no jugó a su 100%. Este match se lo debería llevar Perricard sin problemas BOL EDIT: WIN IN 3 SETS ✅✅✅✅
Record: 170-142-8 (LWWLLWWLWWWWLLLLWWLLWLWLWLWWLWLLWWWW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: DAL Mavericks at MIN Timberwolves | Karl-Anthony Towns o8.5 rebounds at 2.14 odds for 2 units Completely misread the game. But still fuck KAT, my mistake for betting on him POTD: IND Pacers at BOS Celtics | Pascal Siakam o3.4 assist at 2.14 odds for 5 units Reasons: * Plus money. Let's eat. * Had 7 assist last game as the effective offense ran through him * Hit this mark last three games * Boston has their defensive lapses and Pacers are able to exploit some of them with their pace. * I love the over on this game also. Expecting the ball to move quickly, quick runs on turnover/defensive stops and shots to be taken earlier in the shot clock. * Can't forget about that championship pedigree. His experience is valuable in these moments. This is what the FO was trading for and it's paying off. Best of luck!
siakim is on my shit list. missed out points and made threes.
**Record:** 2-1 [+1.5units] Wonderful race by Age of Gold, the horse made it comfortable and took 1st place. **Today's Pick:** Tijuana Two Step [Place in top 3] **Event:** Race #8 Gatton When: 19 hours from post. **Wager/Odds:** 1 unit/$1.75 **Why?** *This horse is in great form, from 4 starts it has 3 wins, and one 2nd place. Hard to go past and I believe the odds are going to change. I managed to pick these Odds at $1.95 but as typing it's gone down 20 cents. You may be able to get higher odds then I've posted but I've got to play at current rate to be honest. The odds will shift alot but that could be a bad thing. Tijuana Two Step has a favourable gate. My personal wager will be a little on the win and a bit more on the place. But my POTD is the place for security* **I just noticed, odds shifted as the favourite horse was scratched, so $1.75 is still extremely high value**
POTD Record: 1-1 Net Units/ROI: +0.6/15% Last Pick: Timberwolves ML (-180)❌ just a bad pick, Minnesota looked pretty mediocre particularly in the second half NBA | 8:00 PM EST | Celtics vs Pacers Pick: Ben Sheppard O0.5 3PM (-162 DK) 1U In this postseason, 72% of Ben Sheppard’s attempted field goals have been threes. He is averaging 2.9 3PA, having 0 attempts only once. He has made at least one three in 11/14 games. He is shooting 44% from three. The concern is that these numbers are step ups from his regular season splits of only 31% on 2.7 attempts, meaning he could be cooling down. He didn’t make any threes in game 1, although he had 3 attempts. He improved in 3P% every year he played in college all the way up to 41% his senior year, so that assures me a little bit that hes still a fine shooter. This is purely a numbers play and hoping he can get at least a few looks to where the numbers say hes likely to make at least one. The Pacers are clearly trying to play with pace, and the hope is that he can some wide open looks on fast breaks or from Halliburton’s playmaking. Tail at your own risk as it could cash anywhere from the first quarter to the waning minutes of the game lol
A bit risky, but not a bad play. I just hate the odds on it, otherwise I’d say it’s a great pick. Shep doesn’t shoot much. It’s usually from 3 when he does, but that juice is a bit much for a 2-5 shot attempts guy. I’d love it at -110 to -120.
I'm not seeing any Sheppard lines on DK
🎯 PREMIER LEAGUE PLAY-OFFS 🎯 POTD 37-27 DARTS RECORD **37-24** (+3.49U) | All POTD bets between 1U-2U Last pick: Conor Heneghan ML vs Bradley Brooks **@ 1.87** (2U) ❌ Todays Pick: **Littler vs Smith Total Legs** **OVER 16.5 @ 1.93** (1.5U) I am so fuc\*ing glad that there's some proper darts on again, it feels like its been an eternity since the last major tournament. MSS has been okay, some profit has been made, but ultimately its childs play in comparison and I cannot wait for the Premier League play-offs tonight. Most predictors seem to be writing Smith off and suggesting a comfortable Littler win which is strange to me and I think its naive. Everybody loves the child sensation that is Littler and for good reason - he's amazing. But so is Michael Smith. In the last few months I think he's finally settled with his new Shot darts and we are gradually getting the old Smith back. Last week he won the last night of the league format besting Aspinall, Littler and Humphries. Additionally, he boasts a 5-2 head-to-head record vs Littler which is surprising but impressive, and all 7 meetings have come in the Premier League. Not only that but if we look into the statistics for the past 2 months it's close again. 96.3 plays 97.8 in averages, 105 plays 107 in first 9, double % 40.5 plays 42.2. This match-up is closer than many think. I've not spoke about Littler at all really because we've come to expect a very consistent high level from the kid and I don't think that changes. I think this could be a spectacular match and I'm pretty confident neither will get smoked. If tailing please bet what you can afford to lose, and if you're a degenerate who's going to message me shit after a loss please tail someone elses pick (and grow up). Ta! Edit: formatting
Whats wrong with Smith, he looks like dogshit and is hitting the single 20 in the dead center lol
Record: 3-7 Last pick: Reds ML❌ What up mofo’s? He’s baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!?!?! I took a couple days break to identify such a quality pick. Form: ❌✅✅❌❌❌❌❌❌✅ Today’s game: BOS Celtics vs IND Pacers Pick: Payton Prichard over 8.5 points( +114 on DK as of write up) Write Up: Never have I been so confident with a pick until today. When you think of the mother loving Celtics, you think Tatum, Brown, and Derrick White. You don’t think mister Prichard, do you? MY POINT EXACTLY. Indy is going to lock down (or try to) their star players, giving people like my boy Paypay to step in and get those opportunities. You saw it yesterday when he started to get more minutes (22 minutes) and he was lights out in shooting(3/4). He is making buckets and will continue to have these opportunities as the team will tighten up and really look take away chances for their stars. Give me the money and Paypay takes us to the bank boys and girlssssssss! We coming for you haters, don’t you worry. Let’s GOOOOOOOOOOOO Good luck to you, better luck to me 🍀 Let me know if you tail or fade. I love the feedback!   
This clown is a full fade for me after game 1. I would have won $750 on a 5 leg parlay if he scored 10 points. He had 8 very early in the first half and never took another shot after that. I was pretty heated. Good luck tho
tailing champ
All the way to the m’fing bank baby!!!
In
POTD Record: 5-4 Last POTD: Hanfmann +5.5 against Nole ❌ Todays POTD: ATP Lyon Mpetshi Perricard - Gaston: 17:30 CEST Pick: Mpetshi Perricard winning @1.73 According to the bookies, this should be a 50-50 match. However, we believe that Mpetshi is more rested than Gaston. The French Open will start this week on Sunday, so Gaston may try to make this quarterfinal easier to get some rest before one of the biggest tournaments of the season. P.S. whole write up: https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2024/05/23/atp-lyon-best-bets-including-bublik-vs-kotov/ Time to get back into the winning form!
Potd record 2-1 Last pick: Newcastle vs Tottenham. Newcastle or draw✅✅ Todays potd: Boston Celtics vs Indians Pacers (pacers +10.5) NBA 8pm Eastern time Reasoning: Pacers should have won the last game, brown clutched when it mattered most and the celtics got a get out of jail card. Pacers are a strong team and as an Irish Minnesota fan I would much rather face the celtics than the pacers. The spread and the odds its offering seem wrong right now and I thought this offer was too good not to take. Best of luck to any tailing
Maybe I’m making this up but I feel like when home favourites barely squeak by in game 1 they blow the team out in game 2 but we will see. BOL
**POTD**: O16.5 Outs - Paul Skenes (-120 DraftKings/-110 FanDuel; Risking 5.7u to win 5u) **League/Time**: MLB - SF @ PIT (12:35PM EST) **2024 Record**: 19-18-1 (51.35%) | -5.4454u | ROI: -6.62% | Current Streak (1 Loss)(L to R): ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌\_✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅❌ **2023 Record**: 86-52 (62.32%) | +54.8644u | ROI 19.84% **Last Pick (5.22.24)**: To Record a Win - Tyler Glasnow (-110 DraftKings; Risking 1.1u to win 1u)❌ **Reasoning**: Paul Skenes is an absolute unit. This is only his 3rd start but he remains the most hyped pitcher prospect coming out of the minors so far this year. He's only covered this 1/2 times but in his last outing vs CHC he was stretched out to 100 pitches across 18 outs recorded. PIT's [short bullpen is also looking a little tired these days](https://triblive.com/sports/shorthanded-pirates-bullpen-in-need-of-rest-as-paul-skenes-prepares-to-make-3rd-mlb-start/) including an extra innings game last night. https://preview.redd.it/cc9xm678c62d1.png?width=557&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ba6457acdd9eb8841c56c66698731246c0afe12 SF's offense is mid to better than mid. They are a tick above league average in pitches per plate appearance (SF: 3.89 P/PA vs MLB Avg: 3.88 P/PA) while their per game averages leave them 18th in At-Bats, 13th in Hits, 13th in Walks, and 18th in Runs. They also strikeout the 11th least. Lastly, Pirates play in a very pitcher friendly park. Check out this [helpful post](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1cctnsw/which_parks_are_best_for_home_runs/) for info related to batter vs pitcher friendly parks. **Anti-Reasoning**: Paul is a young pitcher pitching in only his 3rd game at the major level. Such pitchers are prone to inconsistency. Despite that I may add an additional unit to this POTD. [Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone! **Pre-Game Edit**: FanDuel just released their Outs Recorded prop at a better price: -110. Added another 3.3u/3u. Added link to article about PIT's tired bullpen and the need for Skenes to go longer than 6IP. Line is shifting at other major books it seems to O/U 17.5 Outs. FanDuel still has it at O/U 16.5 as of 10:20am EST.
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POTD Record: 26-18 ❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 16.5U Last pick: New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers | 1:50pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Sunia Turuva anytime tryscorer @1.83 on Sportsbet | 4U❌ This game was a shit show for the panthers … Today’s pick: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Dragons | 7:50pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Zac Lomax anytime tryscorer @2.2 on Ladbrokes | 4U He did us good last week. Lomax on the wing again, very dangerous player this season. He scored 7 tries in 10 appearances. Bulldogs are a solid team so that should be a close one but Dragons should still be able to score a couple, and to me, Lomax has higher chances to score than any other players on the dragons side. I’ll put my $ on him tonight. Also really like Addo-Carr and Kiraz to score for the dogs. BOL !
Addo Carr, boost on BETR for those playing down under
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 15-18 (-1.30 units)** **Last 10**: **✅❌✅❌✅✅❌❌❌✅** **Last Pick**: Andreas Harrysson & Andrew Davidson over 5.5 (-175) **✅** 4-3 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 11:35 AM EST **Pick**: Andrew Davidson & Andreas Harrysson over 5.5 (-200) * Series 7. Week 13. Group C (Championship Week) **Reason**: Beau Greaves won group A as expected. Harrysson got hot yesterday, but just missed out on group B. Now we start with clean slate in group C. Davidson has played in 14/15 overs. Harrysson has played in 12/15 overs. Davidson leads the series 2-1 with each match going 7 legs. They have matched up well, so running it back. Andrew Davidson * Record 5-10 * Legs 46-52 * Average 88.60 * 180s 12. 140s 64 * Checkouts 46/144 31.94% Andreas Harrysson * Record 7-8 * Legs 49-47 * Average 92.18 * 180s 19. 140s 76 * Checkouts 49/125 39.20% **LOSS ❌ 4-1** Average 97.78 vs 81.12. Checkouts 4/9 vs 1/3 Dud. First three legs went with throw and then Davidson broke the 4th with a 13 darter. Cleaned up the 5th. One hot leg sunk this bet.
POTD Record: 13-9-0 Form:❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Mavericks @ Timberwolves Total Under 209❌ Pick of the day: Pacers +9.5 Tail with caution as the only reason im taking this is Boston lost both game 2s at home in their series against miami and the series against cavs. Taking the points for insurance in case of another close loss.
Record: 8W-6L-0P ✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌ Net Units: +3.7 units Last Pick: 5/10 | Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves; Naz Reid over 10.5 points❌ Today’s Game: NBA playoffs | Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics | 8:00pm ET Pick: Obi Toppin over 14.5 PRA | -115 BetMGM | 4 units Write Up: Obi Toppin has been extremely impactful for the Pacers throughout the playoffs. In game one against the Celtics, he scored 15 points in 21 minutes off the bench, as well as racking up 6 R+A. His athleticism and ability to knock down key threes has allowed him to be a major factor in Indiana’s 2nd unit success. They will need him to continue to provide quality minutes in order to stand a chance against this Celtics team. I see the pacers continuing to keep him involved and hit this line easily. Let’s get this dub!
2024 MLB POTD record: 23-19 Average Odds -100 (2.003), Average Winning Odds -105, ROI +6.8%/+2.87u L5: ❌✅✅❌❌ POTD (5/22) SEA @ NYY Bryce Miller u16.5 Outs (-105/1.96) ❌ Recap: Well, Miller got hit hard, but hit hard *efficiently*: all five of his runs given up were via the home run, so he was allowed to finish the sixth. POTD (5/23) TOR @ DET Jack Flaherty o17.5 Outs (-115/1.87) (DraftKings) I'm a bit thrown by this line for Flaherty. Toronto sees the third-most pitches per plate appearance in baseball, sure. but every other indicator is that this line should be much shorter. Toronto is a below-average team (97 wRC+) against RHP this season. On the road, that plummets to 78, 4th-worst in baseball. Flaherty has gone 6 full innings in 8/9 starts this year. Pitch count hasn't been an issue as he's thrown 97+ pitches in 6 of his last 7 starts, the 7th being a 93-pitch start in which he tossed 14 Ks in 6.2 scoreless IP. Flaherty has been the model of consistency this year and Toronto simply isn't good enough to merit coin-flip odds that he goes over a line he's hit in 8/9 starts this year.
**POTD** Record: 18-1-17 CAGLIARI VS FIORENTINA Date: 23 May 2024 at 20:45 BET ON: Both teams to score- Yes Odd: 1.65 - Fiorentina haven’t yet secured a European placement in Serie A which is why they still need to win in Cagliari on Thursday. - Tuttosport reports that coach Vincenzo Italiano is considering resting some starters ahead of the Conference League final against Olimpiacos. These are captain Cristiano Biraghi , Giacomo Bonaventura and Nico Gonzalez , who could start the match starting from the bench. We'll see if the coach confirms the sensations of the day preceding the last outing of the rossoblù and viola. - Cagliari is approaching the match against Fiorentina which will have a particular flavour. Not only for the salvation achieved in the last round of Serie A against Sassuolo. The match against Viola will be Claudio Ranieri 's last on the bench as he has decided to say goodbye to Sardinia for the second time. "I am proud of you, I hope I have been a worthy representative of Sardinia. There will be the last match, at night, and I will hug you warmly." Said coach Claudio Ranieri. "We need points to secure 8th place and have Fiorentina participate in a cup again. Tomorrow we will focus totally on the championship, we cannot abandon it. The final gives us the opportunity to stay focused and attentive, we can't switch off: in Cagliari we will have to play a real match." Said Viola coach Vincenzo Italiano. - We expect a festive game with goals from both sides. It won't be easy for the Viola to win, Cagliari are motivated and will play for coach Ranieri, they'll play freely and aggressively.
Fiorentina -> permabanned.
Not sure why this is being downvoted. Seems like a solid bet not only because of their quotes but how often these teams have been scoring recently. Tailing!
Maybe because many are betting Fiorentina ML. Hope it goes Viola & btts, so it's a win win for everyone. Thank you tho.
**Pick of the Day - May 23rd** Record: 2-0-0\* Net Units: +4.83 units [***Baseball / Japan Baseball / 5:00am EST***](https://www.sofascore.com/en-us/baseball/match/yokohama-dena-baystars-tokyo-yakult-swallows/iRBskRB#id:11985943) Pick: **Over 4 Runs (First 5 Innings)** Yokohama Dena Baystars @ Tokyo Yakult Swallows @ 1.91 via FanDuel Recap / Write Up: Other than a rocky start Q1, previous pick Chemnitz 99 ML cashed sweat free. Congrats to all who tailed. I was looking at Liaoning ML again for yesterday's POTD to take them on a series sweep; unfortunately ended up buried at work and POTD thread for Wed was not open when I had time to make the post :( If anyone knows the approx time this thread opens daily, please share below so I can plan better around it. (I checked at \~7/8pm and didn't see anything...why so late??) For today, we have a match-up in 2hrs that you'll need to catch pre-match before the option closes. I will be risking 1 unit. If the O/U on this match was set at 7, I'd be taking that route, however, the hook turns me off because I believe this match is likely to be a 7-8 run match-up. I also favor Swallows to take the W so we'll possibly lose the opportunity to see a bottom of the 9th. If you see the line drop to a flat 7 and odds are > 1.90, I would find that to be attractive, but would still rank >4 runs first 5 higher. 4+ total runs in the first 5 innings has been covered in 4/5 of the past match-ups between these two teams. In the one where it was not covered, the full game only reached a total of 3 runs. BOL if tailing. \*You can verify my record by viewing prior posts in my comments. Wins are noted by a ✅ and losses by a ❌ in the headline of each post. p.s. I apologize that my posts are so close to start time...once I have a better idea of when the thread opens I'll hopefully be able to avoid that going forward lol.
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Record: 7-6 Last 10: WLWWWLLLWW Net units: -.75 ROI: 0% MLB: Seattle Mariner @ New York Yankees 12:36(EDT) Pick: NRFI -120 @ FD 1.2 to win 1 Once again, I’m going to pick against one of the scariest YRFI teams. The exasperated curses of Yankee fans everywhere could be heard when Cole went to the IL. While you can still hear them muttering under their breath, Gil has eased their pain. He is stepping into the limelight and his stuff has been exciting and he’s sporting a legit 2.39 ERA. His fastball and slider are elite and he’s coming off a 13K performance. Seattle is batting .229 against righties. Castillo is a known quantity and a 3X All-Star. He likes a big stage and he’s got the 4 seamer (95 mph) and an elite change-up (88 mph) Hasn’t allowed a first inning run to the Yankees over the last 3 season (4 starts) 9mph out to right BOL to all
POTD Record: 11-7-1 Previous POTD: Tanner Houck over 17.5 PO’s - ❌ Houck finished on 17. After 2 decent 4 and 3 win runs, I hit my first rough patch with 3 straight losses. Stopped posting for a few days and I began bouncing back, let’s see if I still have the magic or my posts are cursed. Today’s POTD: Jack Flaherty over 17.5 PO’s (-125 on DK) Baseball | MLB | TOR Blue Jays v DET Tigers | 6:40 PM ET Was going to go with the under on the pirates and giants but the line moved down and I don’t like it. So I’m going back to my usual strategy. Flaherty has covered this line 8/9 starts this season and is going up against a TOR squad that has been mediocre against RHP’s, boasting a bottom 10 batting average against them. The tigers have gone deeper into their bull pens lately so I expect Flaherty to have a longer leash and stay on the mound long enough to cover. Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
POTD Record: 5W - 0P - 2L Last Pick: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-122 via DK) **Today's Pick:** **Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5** (+124 via DK) Event: MLB San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates 12:35 PM The Pirates are hot with a 4-1 record in their last five games. Rookie pitcher Paul Skenes is set for his third career start this afternoon. In his first 10 innings, Skenes has racked up 18 strikeouts while allowing just three walks. His last outing was particularly impressive, as he left the game after six no-hit innings. With Skenes on the mound, this team is poised for another strong performance as the Giants will struggle to score.
Let's keep the early streak going, building my portfolio up here and excited compete with the best in this reddit thread. **2024 POTD Record:** 2-1 **Last POTD:** Chicago Cubs ML (+105) ✅ | **LAST 5** - ✅✅❌️ **Today's POTD:** Phillies -1.5 (-105) ESPN BET Baseball | MLB | DELAYED (at the moment) - 5/23/24 **Fast Analysis:** It's a last minute pick as the game is currently delayed. Hopefully some eyeballs see this before the game kicks off or even an early live bet should be good too! Zack Wheeler has been outstanding this season and is more favored at home with an 1.63 ERA and his 0.83 WHIP. The Rangers are missing a sizable amount of key starting pitchers to injuries and have been struggling as of lately. Good luck everyone!
**POTD Record:** 3-1 **Net Units:** +7.92u **Last Pick:** Christian Braun Over 9.5 Players Points + Assists + Rebounds, 3 Units at 1.95 ✅ **Today's Pick:** Basketball | NBA | IND @ BOS 8pm EST * **Pacers 1st Quarter Team Total OVER 27.5 POINTS, 2 Units at 1.83** **Write Up:** Covered last game despite the Pacers not scoring for the first few minutes of the game. Indiana has a tremendous record with this line and typically like to get off running early to set the tone for the game, running off of both makes and misses. Boston has a tendency to start slow defensively and they also give significant 1Q minutes to defensive liabilities like Sam Hauser and Luke Kornet. Line has moved in the right direction, as I managed to get some action in at a lower number yesterday. Jump on this one while you can. Side note: If I made a BuyMeACoffee is that cringe? I know it's only been 4 picks I don't wanna get ahead of myself here.
2024 record: 5-2 Last POTD: New York Yankees ML -148 ✅ Baseball | MLB Recap: That makes three wins in a row! We got a streak going! The game went exactly how we thought it would, a pretty clean win for the Yankees. Nothing for tomorrow since the slate is small and it's been pretty busy at work. Not going to force anything so see you guys for the next POTD!
POTD Record: 2-3 2023 Record: 1-3 2024 Record: 2-0 Form: WW Net Units: +2.8 Last pick - Maastricht ML Pick: Bochum - Fortuna Dusseldorf BTTS betting 2 units to win 1.4 units BTTS hit in 10/12 home games for Bochum this year and in 9/13 away games for Dusseldorf. Both can score and both leak goals. Both teams should be extra motivated for the full 90 minutes as this is the 1st leg of the relegation/promotion playoff
**Record 2024: 18-0-17** **Net Units Played 2024: 168** **ROI 2024: -12.73%** **Last Pick:** **BC Kalev** - Tartu Ulikool **1st quarter H1 -3.5**, 5 units, @ 2.02 ❌️ Basketball / Portugal playoffs / 21:00 / (CEST) **Pick:** **Porto** - Ovarense **1st quarter H1 -3.5**, 5 units, @ 1.78 ✅️ **Write-up:** Not much to say here except that in the second game Porto needs a desperate win since they lost 70-73 in the first. And they lost after being up 11 points in the 1st Q. I think they can repeat their strong start. EDIT: 20-15
**Record:** 3-7 (-4.33 unit) **Last POTD:** Luka Doncic over 28.5 pts ✅ **Today's Pick:** Obi Toppin over 8.5 points on Fanduel -125 **Bet:** 1 unit size to win 0.80 units **Basketball | NBA | 8:00 PM ET** **Recap:** Luka had me sweating for a second there. Shooting 1/7 behind the arc but then went off in the fourth. We keep moving! **Write up:** I have a love hate relationship with Obi. When I bet on him, he fails, and when I dont, I get to watch him shoot lights out. We are going back! In the last 20 games, he has hit this over in 75% of games. He has played boston 6 times this season, all 6 times he has hit this over. Let's see 7!
POD record: 7-6 Last pick: Luka over 8.5 rebs LOSS Today pick: Phillies -1.5 over Rangers (-105) Welp, guess the data just doesn’t matter. Luka missed this rebound line for the first time in the last 6 games. Onto baseball. The Phillies are red hot - hottest team in the MLB. Rangers are on a three game losing streak. Game is in Philly, so I see them easily hitting this line. BOL.
POTD Record: 6-2 Last Pick: Atalanta vs Beyer Leverkusen BTTS ❌ | Still can’t believe that one went lame after the fast start. Feels impossible to me that Leverkusen wasn’t able to slip a goal in during the process of getting routed. Today’s Pick: Andrew Heaney (TEX) OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-160) Analysis: If you follow the Rangers this may seem like an odd pick upon first glance as Heaney is 0-5 this season in his starts. However, the 32 year old lefty still averages just under a K per inning this season with 44 Ks in 44.2 IP. The Phillies strikeout more than any other team in the league with 162 Ks. The next closest team has 140! Schwarber, Harper, Castellanos, and Marsh are all in the top 15 in the league this season for strikeouts against lefties. With this play we are really just hoping Heaney can get to 5 innings, make it more than 1.5 times through the Phillies lineup, and pick up a strikeout per inning as he’s done all year. In his past 6 starts, Heaney has struck out 5 or more in 5 of 6 so I see no reason why he can’t easily get to 5 in this early afternoon game. Trust the Phillies to keep whiffing and bag this one early.