When I have Al Horford unders he is flying all over the court. When I have Al Horford overs he is a statue standing in the corner bent over looking stupid
Posted late last night for my pick of the day
🚨 Luka most points first half (+110 FD)
Said I’d Include a sprinkle of something, maybe Luka triple double (still like this)
But my sprinkle will be
PJ Washington over 5.5 rebounds (-138 FD)
You may can find better odds somewhere else, I usually odds shop, and not sure if you can call this a sprinkle, at -138 odds, but I like the play! It seems safe.
Got a $10 Bonus bet and 30% boost on FD
Looking at this right here. Staying away from the game props just cause of last game.
https://preview.redd.it/w3h3wywbq77d1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=75ace466d370d2490654fbd03f43a46082b6130b
Derrick Jones Jr. hasn’t hit this line but 1x in the L10 games. Whether he plays 30+ minutes or not and also being a starter.
Kyrie just can’t get right in Boston as we all know and besides, he has a crazy game then has either a decent or no-show type of game the next. So I think this is pretty much a freebie.
P.J. is one of the people we were warned about before the series even started. He’s been doing his part the whole series except last game due to a blowout and foul trouble. I don’t see this game being like the last for him. Plus he’s hit this line comfortably the 1st 3 games this series.
Last but not least, Gafford. He only played 10 min last game and hasn’t been getting much PT overall since Lively’s been back. But even when he’s on the court, he’s hit this line 3/4 of the last games. Even only playing that 10 min last game he still hit this line.
To me this is pretty much a no brainer considering all of these have happened this consistently with AND without a blowout from both teams. BOL if tailing !
Let’s cash !
See I would agree with you, but every time I put faith in this dude, he lets me down. Plus, if Boston is doing their thing, which they will tonight, Kyrie doesn’t perform. He’s either up or down, and tonight I don’t see him being up the slightest. GL either way though brother !🤝🏽
Got PJ for 10+ and 12+ points, I could easily see him hitting on 3s also if that’s the case.
I will say he did try to drive a lot more in those first two games imo. Statistically he has a better chance of hitting on 3s in DAL.
Got PJ for RBs too, I think he’ll hit his line again easily as he went over both those games at well. Plus I see Kyrie/Luka shooting (and missing) a lot of 3s lol.
Thanks I have faith he will, he outscored Kyrie both games in Boston. With Porzingis now available, I’m expecting a similar outcome of the first two games lol.
Anyone peep P.J. Washington Ast + Reb on DK? It's set at 7.5 for +102. He only played 14 minutes last game with early foul trouble / blowout. But before that, he's 10, 8, 9, 9, 7, 10 L/6. Seems like great value.
I’m going with Tatum O 15.5 R+A reason being cause he hasn’t hit his line in the two away games & I feel he’s gonna want to close it out tonight by being more involved in the trenches.
According to this sub, these are all locks. LFG
https://preview.redd.it/hy0snrxen67d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8deecc2719673248076664469b3c965499de0b82
I think mavs have one more game and they lose the next one. It still follows Celtics “script” and mavs still put up a fight without just turning over and dying. That’s one of the best scenarios
What are people's thoughts on Lively O 8.5 rebounds? Seems to have been getting more playing time the last two games, and hit 13 and 12 rebounds in those games. (7 and 5 first two games of finals).
Depends if you think the game will be relatively close. Lively is gonna outplay gafford either way but djj is gonna play 30+ minutes if the game is close at all
I mean game 3 was pretty close and jones sat a lot of that game too. THJ started to heat up in a blowout game 4, wouldn’t be surprised if he gets more run today if DJ struggles early
More picks on my blog (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/2024/06/nba-players-props-analysis-17062024.html
Season record: 382-312
Last picks record: 6-5
Recap of last picks (14/06/2024):
Celtics @ Mavericks
1. Derrick Jones Jr O5.5P Odd 1.89 Unibet❌
2. Derrick Jones Jr O2.5R Odd 1.88 Sportsbet❌
3. Daniel Gafford O6.5P Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes✅
4. Kyrie Irving O32.5PRA Odd 1.83 Bet365❌
5. Al Horford U16.5PR Odd 1.85 Ladbrokes✅
6. Dereck Lively II U8.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes❌
7. Luka Donicic U42.5PR Odd 1.85 Sportsbet✅
8. PJ Washington O21.5PRA Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes❌
9. Jayson Tatum O1.5SB Odd 1.85 Unibet✅
10 Jaylen Brown U11.5RA Odd 1.62 Ladbrokes✅
11. Sam Hauser O2.5RA Odd 1.8 Bet365✅
17/06's NBA Props (To be updated)
Mavericks @ Celtics
1. Luka Donicic O16.5RA Odd 1.8 Sportsbet
This line is very low for Luka's standard. Luka has to try his best from the very start of the game just like what he showed last game. He has nothing to lose and he will play smart and careful on defense to avoid foul trouble. I expect a near triple-double this game from Luka.
2. Al Horford O17.5PRA Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes
With KP still likely out this game, I expect Horford to play around 30 minutes this game. Horford also tends to play better at home.
7. Kyrie Irving U24.5P Odd 1.8 Ladbrokes
Irving has not performed well at the Garden and I expect a similar trend this game. Celtics guards are great defenders and scoring 25+ points is never an easy task.
8. Derek Lively U8.5P Odd 1.96 Sportsbet
Same for Lively. He only got 2 points for both game 1 and game 2. He is very consistent with rebounds but for scoring he is still limited.
For latest picks and results, check out my blog (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com
Possible live game smash spot. Since Luka has been crushing his 1st quarter line, by halftime, his points line has been inflated close to 37.5 when he does...definitely an under spot if it gets to this line (or close to it). Something to monitor.
Back again for Game 5! I've gone ahead and subbed to Outlier so you don't have to. Here are a bunch Player Prop Insights they have for tonights game
**These insights went [8 for 10](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1ddw3z7/comment/l89sf3e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) on Game 3.** We did get a bit shelled on Game 4 though with that Mavs blowout. Bit of an outlier game though
There are a ton that show up in the insights feed so I just picked 5 for each team tonight. I also tried to keep all the odds below -150 and have solid hit rates too. You can find most of these markets on DFS apps too.
Lmk if you want to see more
**Boston Celtics**
- Jrue Holiday has failed to exceed 1.5 steals + blocks in 5 of his last 6 games **vs. top 10 defenses for blocks allowed (1.2 steals + blocks/game average).**
- H2H: 63%
- Best odds = u1.5 Steals + Blocks on Draftkings +105
- Hit Rate: ✅✅✅❌✅✅
---
- Payton Pritchard has exceeded 2.5 rebounds + assists in 17 of his last 18 games **vs. bottom 10 defenses for assists allowed (8.3 rebounds + assists/game average).**
- Best odds = o2.5 Rebs + Assists on Draftkings -135
- H2H: 63%
- Hit Rate: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅
---
- Derrick White has exceeded 19.5 points + assists in 8 of his last 9 games **vs. bottom 10 defenses for assists allowed (21.3 points + assists/game average).**
- H2H: 50%
- Best odds = o19.5 P+A on Draftkings -120
- Hit Rate: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌
---
- Jayson Tatum has failed to exceed 1.5 steals + blocks in 7 of his last 8 games **vs. top 10 defenses for blocks allowed (1.1 steals + blocks/game average).**
- H2H: 50%
- Best odds = o1.5 1Q Rebs on Draftkings -102
- Hit Rate: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌
- ---
- Jaylen Brown has exceeded 1.5 1Q rebounds in 6 of his last 7 games **vs. bottom 10 defenses for rebounds allowed (1.9 1Q rebounds/game average).**
- H2H: 50%
- Best odds = u1.5 Steals + Blocks on Draftkings -120
- Hit Rate: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌
- ---
**Dallas Mavericks**
- Derrick Jones Jr. has failed to exceed 5.5 points in 4 of his last 5 games **vs. top 10 defenses for points allowed (5.6 points/game average).**
- Best odds = u5.5 Points on Draftkings +102
- Hit Rate: ✅✅❌✅✅
---
- P.J. Washington Jr. has failed to exceed 0.5 steals in 5 straight games **vs. top 10 defenses for steals allowed (0.0 steals/game average).**
- Best odds = u0.5 Steals on Draftkings +11-
- Hit Rate: ✅✅✅✅✅
---
- Maxi Kleber has failed to exceed 4.5 points + rebounds in 5 of his last 6 games **vs. top 10 defenses for points allowed (3.0 points + rebounds/game average).**
- Best odds = u4.5 P+R on Draftkings -130
- Hit Rate: ✅✅✅✅✅❌
- ---
- Kyrie Irving has failed to exceed 2.5 turnovers in 5 of his last 6 games **vs. bottom 10 defenses for turnovers forced (1.5 turnovers/game average).**
- Best odds = u2.5 Turnovers on Draftkings -192
- Hit Rate: ✅✅❌✅✅✅
- ---
Derrick Jones Jr. O 0.5 1Q pts (-110 @ DK)
Jones playing time has been suspect the last 2 games but he continues to start games, playing nearly 8 mins in 1Q of game 4. Avg 2.9 pts per 8 mins in the regular season and 2.4 pts per 8 in the playoffs. 65% hit rate on the year including L 14/20
Dante Exum O 1.5 RA (-125 @ DK)
Played 14 mins in game 4, could have played more if they needed him to here's what Kidd had to say about him after the game "Exum has played at a high level for us all season. He's been able to run the offense. He stepped up and made big shots for us to win ... He was aggressive while he was out on the floor. He was great. We're going to need that on the road." Over in 27/27 games this season w/ 10-20 mins including 15/15 w/ 10-15 mins. DAL is +22 w/ him on the court this series, i expect him to see some run w/ their season on the line.
https://x.com/sammygprops
Playoff record: 0-0
Dallas Mavericks ML
Dallas Mavericks first half ML
Derrick White to score 10+ points
Derrick White 2+ three’s
Derrick White to record 2+ assists
Jrue Holiday to score 10+ points
Jrue Holiday 1+ three’s
Jrue Holiday to record 2+ assists
Jaylen Brown to score 20+ points
Jaylen Brown 1+ made three’s
Jaylen Brown to record 2+ assists
Jaylen Brown to record 4+ rebounds
Luka Doncic 3+ made three’s
Luka Doncic to score a double double
Luka Doncic to record 6+ rebounds
Luka Doncic to score over 31.5 points
Kyrie Irving 1+ made three’s
Kyrie Irving to score 15+ points
PJ Washington 1+ made three’s
PJ Washington to record 4+ rebounds
Al Horford 1+ made three’s
Al Horford to record 4+ rebounds
Sam Hauser 1+ made three
Jayson Tatum to record 6+ rebounds
Dereck Lively to record 4+ rebounds
25-leg parlay +10888
$0.50 to win $54.94
# NBA Finals Game 5 Predictions
* Luka Doncic Over 32.5 Points (-115)
# Celtics vs. Mavericks NBA Finals Game 5 Best Bet: Luka Doncic Over 32.5 Points (-115)
Luka Doncic has been the cornerstone of the Mavericks' offense, averaging 29.5 points per game in the series. In Game 4, he scored 29 points without even playing the fourth quarter, showcasing his scoring prowess. With the Mavericks facing elimination, Doncic will be relied upon heavily to keep their hopes alive. Given Boston’s strategy of removing Dallas’ roleplayers from the scoring equation and almost forcing Doncic and Irving to do it themselves, we should see both players step up as a result. Expect a big performance from Doncic, making the over on 32.5 points a solid bet.
Game 5 of the NBA Finals promises to be an exciting contest with significant implications. The Boston Celtics are poised to cover the -6.5 spread, driven by their desire to close out the series at home. Meanwhile, the total points are expected to go over 209.5, influenced by the Mavericks' potential pace and the Celtics' offensive rebound. Lastly, Luka Doncic's scoring capability in a high-pressure game makes the over on his points a compelling bet. These picks highlight the dynamics at play and offer promising angles for bettors as the Finals continue.
https://preview.redd.it/clwbwn28u17d1.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6b900f9184540abfc93636a058ce966ac250df4
Definitely fading this. He hasn't gone over this line yet in the finals, and the Celtics clearly were tanking last game and pulled everyone so they can finish this at home. It may go over (I'm a fan of his), but I just feel the play is under on such a high # that a lot has to go right to hit. GL tonight.
True but he's been really close 30,32,27 (fouled out with 5 mins left) and 29 last game. This probably will be his highest scoring game this series both teams should come out swinging. I would stay away from the under if you wanna be safer do take luka for 30+ points.
Playoff record 3-1
All 4 of my picks has been Luka. And we ain’t breaking the trend, my last pick was Luka most points first quarter at +105 and this smashed .
🚨 Today, we’re gonna give him some extra time to help win this bet and give him most points first half. (+110 FD) 🚨
feel free to take first quarter money at (-110 FD)
I usually include a sprinkle bet, and will look early Monday morning for one. First considering is Luka for a triple double (+600 FD….this was at +480 when I played this last time and it hit game 2 I believe?)
Game 5 Picks
**PJ Washington Over 11.5 Points**
(-120 DK)
Pick of the Day 💣
This guy has failed me once and it was last game due to only playing 14 minutes. ( foul trouble + blowout)
- He has gone over this line in 5/6 games VS Boston, averaging 13.4 PPG this season.
- PJ has been guarded by Derrick White for the majority of the games. I know White is a great defender but PJ has a size advantage that he can put at his advantage against him.
- PJ has played 36+ minutes in 8/L9 games and he is over this line in 11/14 games in the Playoffs when he plays at least 36 minutes.
- Heading into Game 5, The Mavs will need him to play good and I expect him to have plenty of opportunities to go over his points line.
**Al Horford Under 17.5 Points, Assists and Rebounds**
(-110 Bet365)
- Al Horford has averaged 14.8 PRA in the Finals and has went over in only 1 game.
- He has averaged 5.5 RPG and 2.8 APG vs the Mavs.
- Even with KP out, Horford has gone over in ONLY 6/18 games, averaging in this NBA Playoffs. With the possibility of KP playing in Game 5, he could lose some minutes.
- Also, when Horford is on the floor it creates mismatches in favour of Luka and Kai to exploit, this could lead to less playing time for big Al.
- I don't expect much from Horford beside spacing the floor in offence and maybe hit 1 or 2 threes for Boston. That is why I'm going with his under.
Masterclass incoming from Luka🤔
**Might add one more**
**BOL Everyone!**
[Twitter🏀](https://x.com/locksmelo?s=21)
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Wow good for Jaylen Brown bruh. Deserves that shit
When I have Al Horford unders he is flying all over the court. When I have Al Horford overs he is a statue standing in the corner bent over looking stupid
Needed one more rebound from Lively smh 🤦🏽♂️
Who noticed what Holiday did regarding his RA?
Celtics did their thing man. Salute
Triple double alert for Tatum? Needs 6 boards and 1 assists ?
who else had luka points 2nite? join me in a drink
Here. Kill me. Time to take a few months off.
lol ya imma go to bed early...& for a few months
I'm taking jaylen brown over 26 I don't think Dallas can stop him. Or tatum
Derrick jones jr said fuck r/sportsbook
What do you guys think about Josh green over 8.5 points?
Is Tatum going to show up tonight orrrrr
2am here in Monaco…..not going to bed until hauser over 5.5 points hits Edit: that was easy….nite folks!
Posted late last night for my pick of the day 🚨 Luka most points first half (+110 FD) Said I’d Include a sprinkle of something, maybe Luka triple double (still like this) But my sprinkle will be PJ Washington over 5.5 rebounds (-138 FD) You may can find better odds somewhere else, I usually odds shop, and not sure if you can call this a sprinkle, at -138 odds, but I like the play! It seems safe.
Ouch this did not age well
PJ hit Atleast
https://preview.redd.it/k0lzg69sz77d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c1bad254b3375e78c68db1cf2fe36337976fc709 Fuck it, sprinkle
Luka over 9.5 1st Quarter odd just went from -140 to -115 boys, anyone know why?
Dead on arrival
they knew lol
Tempted by Lively double double @ +300
Got a $10 Bonus bet and 30% boost on FD Looking at this right here. Staying away from the game props just cause of last game. https://preview.redd.it/w3h3wywbq77d1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=75ace466d370d2490654fbd03f43a46082b6130b Derrick Jones Jr. hasn’t hit this line but 1x in the L10 games. Whether he plays 30+ minutes or not and also being a starter. Kyrie just can’t get right in Boston as we all know and besides, he has a crazy game then has either a decent or no-show type of game the next. So I think this is pretty much a freebie. P.J. is one of the people we were warned about before the series even started. He’s been doing his part the whole series except last game due to a blowout and foul trouble. I don’t see this game being like the last for him. Plus he’s hit this line comfortably the 1st 3 games this series. Last but not least, Gafford. He only played 10 min last game and hasn’t been getting much PT overall since Lively’s been back. But even when he’s on the court, he’s hit this line 3/4 of the last games. Even only playing that 10 min last game he still hit this line. To me this is pretty much a no brainer considering all of these have happened this consistently with AND without a blowout from both teams. BOL if tailing ! Let’s cash !
Kyrie knows this though. I back him going off this game
See I would agree with you, but every time I put faith in this dude, he lets me down. Plus, if Boston is doing their thing, which they will tonight, Kyrie doesn’t perform. He’s either up or down, and tonight I don’t see him being up the slightest. GL either way though brother !🤝🏽
What y’all think about Derrick jones Jr 1+ three
He’s gonna attempt one for sure, wanted to play it last game but I couldn’t commit 😅😅
Fuck I might do PJ 2+ threes and D jones 1+ threes
Got PJ for 10+ and 12+ points, I could easily see him hitting on 3s also if that’s the case. I will say he did try to drive a lot more in those first two games imo. Statistically he has a better chance of hitting on 3s in DAL.
I’m hoping he hits and d jones hits a garbage time 3
Got PJ for RBs too, I think he’ll hit his line again easily as he went over both those games at well. Plus I see Kyrie/Luka shooting (and missing) a lot of 3s lol.
https://preview.redd.it/3qjotuym287d1.jpeg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=87f0031ec4fda4873b7ce7fcf974cff2db15f3f7
Good luck to you tonight 🙏🍀(sorry if the clover is in bad taste)
Good luck to you too sir hopefully PJ shows up
Thanks I have faith he will, he outscored Kyrie both games in Boston. With Porzingis now available, I’m expecting a similar outcome of the first two games lol.
Anyone peep P.J. Washington Ast + Reb on DK? It's set at 7.5 for +102. He only played 14 minutes last game with early foul trouble / blowout. But before that, he's 10, 8, 9, 9, 7, 10 L/6. Seems like great value.
im looking at that now after you say that, i thinking about throwing $25 to it. great value
Cash money. Hopefully you put something on it.
yessir, that 25 looks like 50 now, great call. if brown and white get 20 i’ll have a great end to the nba season
Man, I need Tatum to get 8 more points...fuck this game. Glad you cashed that though!
That's what I'm saying. BOL
[удалено]
I’m going with Tatum O 15.5 R+A reason being cause he hasn’t hit his line in the two away games & I feel he’s gonna want to close it out tonight by being more involved in the trenches.
Who else is on the fence about Luka o9.5 pts in Q1?
According to this sub, these are all locks. LFG https://preview.redd.it/hy0snrxen67d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8deecc2719673248076664469b3c965499de0b82
Tailing with a boost +1200
Praying DJJ doesn’t hit two corner 3s
Dereck Lively O 17.5 PR https://preview.redd.it/md151ci6767d1.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3acfdc49a3db14e01ea6bceef6b029d7b8b9093
What app is that?
outlier app
I think mavs have one more game and they lose the next one. It still follows Celtics “script” and mavs still put up a fight without just turning over and dying. That’s one of the best scenarios
What are people's thoughts on Lively O 8.5 rebounds? Seems to have been getting more playing time the last two games, and hit 13 and 12 rebounds in those games. (7 and 5 first two games of finals).
Before reading this I put him in my parlay. BOL
Love it , without KP he should dominate boards
Tim Hardaway props?
Gafford and DJJ have played a lot less these past two games, are we taking under on both these guys?
Depends if you think the game will be relatively close. Lively is gonna outplay gafford either way but djj is gonna play 30+ minutes if the game is close at all
I mean game 3 was pretty close and jones sat a lot of that game too. THJ started to heat up in a blowout game 4, wouldn’t be surprised if he gets more run today if DJ struggles early
More picks on my blog (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com/2024/06/nba-players-props-analysis-17062024.html Season record: 382-312 Last picks record: 6-5 Recap of last picks (14/06/2024): Celtics @ Mavericks 1. Derrick Jones Jr O5.5P Odd 1.89 Unibet❌ 2. Derrick Jones Jr O2.5R Odd 1.88 Sportsbet❌ 3. Daniel Gafford O6.5P Odd 1.82 Ladbrokes✅ 4. Kyrie Irving O32.5PRA Odd 1.83 Bet365❌ 5. Al Horford U16.5PR Odd 1.85 Ladbrokes✅ 6. Dereck Lively II U8.5P Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes❌ 7. Luka Donicic U42.5PR Odd 1.85 Sportsbet✅ 8. PJ Washington O21.5PRA Odd 1.83 Ladbrokes❌ 9. Jayson Tatum O1.5SB Odd 1.85 Unibet✅ 10 Jaylen Brown U11.5RA Odd 1.62 Ladbrokes✅ 11. Sam Hauser O2.5RA Odd 1.8 Bet365✅ 17/06's NBA Props (To be updated) Mavericks @ Celtics 1. Luka Donicic O16.5RA Odd 1.8 Sportsbet This line is very low for Luka's standard. Luka has to try his best from the very start of the game just like what he showed last game. He has nothing to lose and he will play smart and careful on defense to avoid foul trouble. I expect a near triple-double this game from Luka. 2. Al Horford O17.5PRA Odd 1.87 Ladbrokes With KP still likely out this game, I expect Horford to play around 30 minutes this game. Horford also tends to play better at home. 7. Kyrie Irving U24.5P Odd 1.8 Ladbrokes Irving has not performed well at the Garden and I expect a similar trend this game. Celtics guards are great defenders and scoring 25+ points is never an easy task. 8. Derek Lively U8.5P Odd 1.96 Sportsbet Same for Lively. He only got 2 points for both game 1 and game 2. He is very consistent with rebounds but for scoring he is still limited. For latest picks and results, check out my blog (always updated before reddit): https://sportsenthusiastanalyst.blogspot.com
Your blog is not updated tho
Possible live game smash spot. Since Luka has been crushing his 1st quarter line, by halftime, his points line has been inflated close to 37.5 when he does...definitely an under spot if it gets to this line (or close to it). Something to monitor.
[удалено]
Do you remember what the PRA line was off the top of your head? I'll probably monitor that and the points to see which one looks better.
I like this pick, which means Luka will put up a 40 piece the one time I bet an inflated under.
This is actually pretty smart I did the same for Kyrie in the clipper series where he would have 4 at half and finish with 28 lol
Back again for Game 5! I've gone ahead and subbed to Outlier so you don't have to. Here are a bunch Player Prop Insights they have for tonights game **These insights went [8 for 10](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1ddw3z7/comment/l89sf3e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) on Game 3.** We did get a bit shelled on Game 4 though with that Mavs blowout. Bit of an outlier game though There are a ton that show up in the insights feed so I just picked 5 for each team tonight. I also tried to keep all the odds below -150 and have solid hit rates too. You can find most of these markets on DFS apps too. Lmk if you want to see more **Boston Celtics** - Jrue Holiday has failed to exceed 1.5 steals + blocks in 5 of his last 6 games **vs. top 10 defenses for blocks allowed (1.2 steals + blocks/game average).** - H2H: 63% - Best odds = u1.5 Steals + Blocks on Draftkings +105 - Hit Rate: ✅✅✅❌✅✅ --- - Payton Pritchard has exceeded 2.5 rebounds + assists in 17 of his last 18 games **vs. bottom 10 defenses for assists allowed (8.3 rebounds + assists/game average).** - Best odds = o2.5 Rebs + Assists on Draftkings -135 - H2H: 63% - Hit Rate: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ --- - Derrick White has exceeded 19.5 points + assists in 8 of his last 9 games **vs. bottom 10 defenses for assists allowed (21.3 points + assists/game average).** - H2H: 50% - Best odds = o19.5 P+A on Draftkings -120 - Hit Rate: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌ --- - Jayson Tatum has failed to exceed 1.5 steals + blocks in 7 of his last 8 games **vs. top 10 defenses for blocks allowed (1.1 steals + blocks/game average).** - H2H: 50% - Best odds = o1.5 1Q Rebs on Draftkings -102 - Hit Rate: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌ - --- - Jaylen Brown has exceeded 1.5 1Q rebounds in 6 of his last 7 games **vs. bottom 10 defenses for rebounds allowed (1.9 1Q rebounds/game average).** - H2H: 50% - Best odds = u1.5 Steals + Blocks on Draftkings -120 - Hit Rate: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌ - --- **Dallas Mavericks** - Derrick Jones Jr. has failed to exceed 5.5 points in 4 of his last 5 games **vs. top 10 defenses for points allowed (5.6 points/game average).** - Best odds = u5.5 Points on Draftkings +102 - Hit Rate: ✅✅❌✅✅ --- - P.J. Washington Jr. has failed to exceed 0.5 steals in 5 straight games **vs. top 10 defenses for steals allowed (0.0 steals/game average).** - Best odds = u0.5 Steals on Draftkings +11- - Hit Rate: ✅✅✅✅✅ --- - Maxi Kleber has failed to exceed 4.5 points + rebounds in 5 of his last 6 games **vs. top 10 defenses for points allowed (3.0 points + rebounds/game average).** - Best odds = u4.5 P+R on Draftkings -130 - Hit Rate: ✅✅✅✅✅❌ - --- - Kyrie Irving has failed to exceed 2.5 turnovers in 5 of his last 6 games **vs. bottom 10 defenses for turnovers forced (1.5 turnovers/game average).** - Best odds = u2.5 Turnovers on Draftkings -192 - Hit Rate: ✅✅❌✅✅✅ - ---
You have the Tatum and browns props flipped
im so shook bout player prop overs after what happened last game lol
Derrick Jones Jr. O 0.5 1Q pts (-110 @ DK) Jones playing time has been suspect the last 2 games but he continues to start games, playing nearly 8 mins in 1Q of game 4. Avg 2.9 pts per 8 mins in the regular season and 2.4 pts per 8 in the playoffs. 65% hit rate on the year including L 14/20 Dante Exum O 1.5 RA (-125 @ DK) Played 14 mins in game 4, could have played more if they needed him to here's what Kidd had to say about him after the game "Exum has played at a high level for us all season. He's been able to run the offense. He stepped up and made big shots for us to win ... He was aggressive while he was out on the floor. He was great. We're going to need that on the road." Over in 27/27 games this season w/ 10-20 mins including 15/15 w/ 10-15 mins. DAL is +22 w/ him on the court this series, i expect him to see some run w/ their season on the line. https://x.com/sammygprops
Is Jr. starting?
Hes started 39 straight games including every game this postseason so i have no reason to think he isnt
Playoff record: 0-0 Dallas Mavericks ML Dallas Mavericks first half ML Derrick White to score 10+ points Derrick White 2+ three’s Derrick White to record 2+ assists Jrue Holiday to score 10+ points Jrue Holiday 1+ three’s Jrue Holiday to record 2+ assists Jaylen Brown to score 20+ points Jaylen Brown 1+ made three’s Jaylen Brown to record 2+ assists Jaylen Brown to record 4+ rebounds Luka Doncic 3+ made three’s Luka Doncic to score a double double Luka Doncic to record 6+ rebounds Luka Doncic to score over 31.5 points Kyrie Irving 1+ made three’s Kyrie Irving to score 15+ points PJ Washington 1+ made three’s PJ Washington to record 4+ rebounds Al Horford 1+ made three’s Al Horford to record 4+ rebounds Sam Hauser 1+ made three Jayson Tatum to record 6+ rebounds Dereck Lively to record 4+ rebounds 25-leg parlay +10888 $0.50 to win $54.94
Go buy a gum ball to chew instead
Idk why this isnt at the top, this is a lockkk bro keep gambling your one bet away from being a millionaire🔥
If you can’t afford to even bet a dollar, don’t bet at all
You shouldn’t be betting bro just save your money😂
Hey, it only needs to hit 3x to afford a modest dinner out.
Might as well give that 50 cents to charity
What’s the point of posting this in the finals
# NBA Finals Game 5 Predictions * Luka Doncic Over 32.5 Points (-115) # Celtics vs. Mavericks NBA Finals Game 5 Best Bet: Luka Doncic Over 32.5 Points (-115) Luka Doncic has been the cornerstone of the Mavericks' offense, averaging 29.5 points per game in the series. In Game 4, he scored 29 points without even playing the fourth quarter, showcasing his scoring prowess. With the Mavericks facing elimination, Doncic will be relied upon heavily to keep their hopes alive. Given Boston’s strategy of removing Dallas’ roleplayers from the scoring equation and almost forcing Doncic and Irving to do it themselves, we should see both players step up as a result. Expect a big performance from Doncic, making the over on 32.5 points a solid bet. Game 5 of the NBA Finals promises to be an exciting contest with significant implications. The Boston Celtics are poised to cover the -6.5 spread, driven by their desire to close out the series at home. Meanwhile, the total points are expected to go over 209.5, influenced by the Mavericks' potential pace and the Celtics' offensive rebound. Lastly, Luka Doncic's scoring capability in a high-pressure game makes the over on his points a compelling bet. These picks highlight the dynamics at play and offer promising angles for bettors as the Finals continue. https://preview.redd.it/clwbwn28u17d1.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6b900f9184540abfc93636a058ce966ac250df4
cornerstone? AI shit
Did AI write that
Definitely fading this. He hasn't gone over this line yet in the finals, and the Celtics clearly were tanking last game and pulled everyone so they can finish this at home. It may go over (I'm a fan of his), but I just feel the play is under on such a high # that a lot has to go right to hit. GL tonight.
True but he's been really close 30,32,27 (fouled out with 5 mins left) and 29 last game. This probably will be his highest scoring game this series both teams should come out swinging. I would stay away from the under if you wanna be safer do take luka for 30+ points.
Playoff record 3-1 All 4 of my picks has been Luka. And we ain’t breaking the trend, my last pick was Luka most points first quarter at +105 and this smashed . 🚨 Today, we’re gonna give him some extra time to help win this bet and give him most points first half. (+110 FD) 🚨 feel free to take first quarter money at (-110 FD) I usually include a sprinkle bet, and will look early Monday morning for one. First considering is Luka for a triple double (+600 FD….this was at +480 when I played this last time and it hit game 2 I believe?)
Game 5 Picks **PJ Washington Over 11.5 Points** (-120 DK) Pick of the Day 💣 This guy has failed me once and it was last game due to only playing 14 minutes. ( foul trouble + blowout) - He has gone over this line in 5/6 games VS Boston, averaging 13.4 PPG this season. - PJ has been guarded by Derrick White for the majority of the games. I know White is a great defender but PJ has a size advantage that he can put at his advantage against him. - PJ has played 36+ minutes in 8/L9 games and he is over this line in 11/14 games in the Playoffs when he plays at least 36 minutes. - Heading into Game 5, The Mavs will need him to play good and I expect him to have plenty of opportunities to go over his points line. **Al Horford Under 17.5 Points, Assists and Rebounds** (-110 Bet365) - Al Horford has averaged 14.8 PRA in the Finals and has went over in only 1 game. - He has averaged 5.5 RPG and 2.8 APG vs the Mavs. - Even with KP out, Horford has gone over in ONLY 6/18 games, averaging in this NBA Playoffs. With the possibility of KP playing in Game 5, he could lose some minutes. - Also, when Horford is on the floor it creates mismatches in favour of Luka and Kai to exploit, this could lead to less playing time for big Al. - I don't expect much from Horford beside spacing the floor in offence and maybe hit 1 or 2 threes for Boston. That is why I'm going with his under. Masterclass incoming from Luka🤔 **Might add one more** **BOL Everyone!** [Twitter🏀](https://x.com/locksmelo?s=21)
Tailing both of these 🤞🏽
Lets cash bro🔥✅
126-98 __Jrue Holiday O10.5 RA__
My man went back to the well outside of disc 😂😎 gotta respect it he can’t burn us 3x
🤣🤣🤣