**Pick:** TB -1.5 (+200, FanDuel)
**Record:** 7-15-1, 0.38u (all picks are to win 0.5u)
**Yesterday's pick:** TOR/CLE over 10.5 (W)
This is a case of one starter who's stats indicate he's benefited from some luck and another starter who's been penalized with luck.
Bryan Woo currently sits at a 2.83 FIP this year, but his SIERA and xFIP tell a different story, at 4.07 and 4.05 respectively. Meanwhile Tampa's starter, Taj Bradley, has a 3.32 SIERA and 3.39 xFIP but has recorded a 4.41 FIP. Bradley gets a SEA lineup that hasn't hit RHP well all season and ranks 26th overall (22nd in last 30 days). The Rays are in the same boat against RHP, but they've been hitting the ball much better in the last 2 weeks, with a .328 wOBA and .745 OPS.
https://preview.redd.it/z1ya9xqp4i8d1.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e63690a76fd66857d151be10f84a9c614d5c8fa
**POTD RECORD**: 5:15
**PROFIT**: -6,43 pts
**Race:** 5.45 Ballinrobe (race 2)
**Selection**: Babich 2,85, 2Pt
Very good 2nd on debut at Killarney. Was then thrown into a deep race next time out and was also drawn widest of all in stall 20. That effort can be excused and a repeat of his debut run will see him very hard to beat here.
Ok, I Know this is gonna sound ridiculous, but I think betting on Costa Rica's defense vs Brazil is +EV. That means I believe 0-0 @34 or 1-0 Brazil @10 are good bets. The reason is simple: Costa Rica's coach is Alfaro, known for his extremely defensive schemes. Knowing that he is coaching such a dog as Costa Rica vs Brazil, I think he's gonna try to hold the 0-0. Is he going to succeed? Probably not, which is why it is @34, but I think it is worth a shot. Also, lately Brazil has been unimpressive, so I think everyone is overestimating its attacking capability based solely on the fact that they are Brazil vs a small team.
I think Argentina to win to nil @2.3 is +EV. Argentina has a clean sheet way more frequently than 43% of the matches, and Chile is not looking good at all. This is the World Champions with great performances vs a team that's been doing pretty terrible. I just don't see any dog plays here.
Mexico had the right idea to shut Vini Jr down by triple teaming him and hitting him hard and fast, if Costa Rica can copy that and finish shots off better than Mexico they have a high chance, Brazil seems to not be in tune as much, I hate to bet against Vini but it might be the play
**Pick:** TB -1.5 (+200, FanDuel) **Record:** 7-15-1, 0.38u (all picks are to win 0.5u) **Yesterday's pick:** TOR/CLE over 10.5 (W) This is a case of one starter who's stats indicate he's benefited from some luck and another starter who's been penalized with luck. Bryan Woo currently sits at a 2.83 FIP this year, but his SIERA and xFIP tell a different story, at 4.07 and 4.05 respectively. Meanwhile Tampa's starter, Taj Bradley, has a 3.32 SIERA and 3.39 xFIP but has recorded a 4.41 FIP. Bradley gets a SEA lineup that hasn't hit RHP well all season and ranks 26th overall (22nd in last 30 days). The Rays are in the same boat against RHP, but they've been hitting the ball much better in the last 2 weeks, with a .328 wOBA and .745 OPS. https://preview.redd.it/z1ya9xqp4i8d1.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e63690a76fd66857d151be10f84a9c614d5c8fa
**POTD RECORD**: 5:15 **PROFIT**: -6,43 pts **Race:** 5.45 Ballinrobe (race 2) **Selection**: Babich 2,85, 2Pt Very good 2nd on debut at Killarney. Was then thrown into a deep race next time out and was also drawn widest of all in stall 20. That effort can be excused and a repeat of his debut run will see him very hard to beat here.
Ok, I Know this is gonna sound ridiculous, but I think betting on Costa Rica's defense vs Brazil is +EV. That means I believe 0-0 @34 or 1-0 Brazil @10 are good bets. The reason is simple: Costa Rica's coach is Alfaro, known for his extremely defensive schemes. Knowing that he is coaching such a dog as Costa Rica vs Brazil, I think he's gonna try to hold the 0-0. Is he going to succeed? Probably not, which is why it is @34, but I think it is worth a shot. Also, lately Brazil has been unimpressive, so I think everyone is overestimating its attacking capability based solely on the fact that they are Brazil vs a small team.
Your a gotdamn genius. What are your picks for Argentina game
I think Argentina to win to nil @2.3 is +EV. Argentina has a clean sheet way more frequently than 43% of the matches, and Chile is not looking good at all. This is the World Champions with great performances vs a team that's been doing pretty terrible. I just don't see any dog plays here.
This was the one bet I tailed in this subreddit today. Let’s goooo
Congratulations! I bet it myself, it was one hell of a fun sweat
Mexico had the right idea to shut Vini Jr down by triple teaming him and hitting him hard and fast, if Costa Rica can copy that and finish shots off better than Mexico they have a high chance, Brazil seems to not be in tune as much, I hate to bet against Vini but it might be the play