i get 7-month to 1 year CDs through my regional bank. i am not sending my $$ away to a random online bank liaison/middleman that could fold overnight to get 0.25% more or lets say robinhood. i am an old.
wasn’t referring to credible brokers. fidelity has a superb reputation and if schwab screws up td ameritrade’s operations, fidelity is my first option to consider.
You don't know where we stand. The finacial market still has to digest 20 trillion additional cash from the ZIRP and the corona bonds. Could easily happen that the inflation returns and nominal sharevalues shoot up another 20%.
lol "digest".
40% of all USD in existence was printed in the last 5 years. This is only the beginning to be felt, and its impacts and scale far dwarf 20T total imapct. This will be with us for the next 15, 20, 25 years...
Yea, what I meant all that cash is gonna get invested at some point which inflates the stock prices. Its pretty naive to think we are at an especially high nominal point.
Any rising market chart is going to hit all time highs, time and time again. Look at the S&P 500 chart, zoom out to max, scan from left to right and count the number of ATH peaks.
Why not add duration to rip equity like returns from bonds? If stocks go 10-15% south we probably have a recession and rates will be priced for aggressive fed cuts
I pulled out my Honda mower today after being neglected and sitting idle for 9 months in my garage, unwintered with the gas and oil in it left over from last year. Fired up on the first pull and crushed my lawn. Long Honda.
I mean they are definitely more expensive that the average mower, so there's that but I think that's also a detriment to their sales seeing how broke people are.
Well shit, good thing I have a Honda mower that will last. It's already 8 years old, but runs just as good as the day I bought her.... may have to actually start taking care of her now so she lasts until I can't physically mow no mo.
People are sleeping on PYPL but then they say things like “the market is really overvalued”
No, no it’s not. But investing is risky, and risks sometimes pay off. They are generally proportional to reward, too.
If you feel yourself needing to leave this market because it’s risky, maybe you’re getting old.
The market has never been more ripe for investment, due to cryptocurrency overshadowing real, tangible investments with earnings backings. That’s “boring” these days.
I bought PYPL last fall at $58. I like the fundamentals and I feel it’s undervalued, but my thoughts and feelings are irrelevant to what happens. It’s gone up a little bit, but it’s not exciting or a big mover. If you’re doing it right there shouldn’t be many “exciting” moments in stock buying/selling, if you’re gambling…. HELLS YES, but know when you’re investing or gambling.
Decent growth.
Low P/E.
New leadership.
Brand recognition with Venmo.
Large active seller/buyer platform that is baked in with an ecosystem.
I’m an idiot, so I recommend you don’t take my advice.
Boeing is probably too big to die, but it's a terrible company. Any engineer who go work at Boeing has settled for a cushy job consisting of filling out paperwork and doing nothing. Just go to the boeing subreddit to find out.
There's a worldwide need for about 2,500 airliners each year and only two companies making them, along with certain airlines having loyalty to the brand. They'll get through this.
It's interesting because a month ago the stock path looked about how the flight paths look, but it seems like they were able to correct the stock path. Shame the engineering focus isn't as strong as the business focus though.
How much was the opportunity cost of holding 50% cash?
How high has the market gone? How much higher will it go? S&P500 is up 12% so far this year, who knows if it’ll go higher or lower from here. But we all know anyone not invested missed out on that 12%.
Not to mention there are definitely good deals out there. Just need to be strong enough to buy. If you aren’t willing to buy while stocks go up, will you be able to buy when they’re going down?
> If you aren’t willing to buy while stocks go up, will you be able to buy when they’re going down?
Yep, it always seems so logical that a correction might come and then when it comes I'll buy and suddenly (if it happens) it feels like catching a falling knife, so you try to wait for the bottom, hmm it's going up, probably a bulltrap and then all the gains are made by others.
I guess rare to beat spy by any stock in downturn. It is safe way dip into market when you can’t find a bargain. Or get into stocks in spy index with relatively cheaper valuations. But they are cheap for a reason. Spy or MM.
That was lynch who only managed a fund starting from the very bottom of a market in 1977 to the best bull run in market history till 1990. He never faced a major bear market in his short tenure. Obviously, in a bull market, you will outperform with high risk equities.
Basically he was the Kathy of the time but Kathy eventually got hammered by two major bear markets. Those destroyed her overall returns to the point that she has probably under performed the S&P at this point, through her long career.
Also note in his final 3 years (1987 to early1990), the bull market finally started to normalize and he probably under performed the S&P in that span. Truth is his performance is largely front loaded based on entering at the bottom of a bear market which was just luck, not skill. From 1984 to 1990 he wasnt very impressive at all compared to a plain S&P500 index. In fact his last 6 years he only outperformed the S&P by about 2.7% yoy. Not exactly fantastic when you consider people were paying fees on this that were likely higher than his out performance.
Point being, the best investors faced bear markets and still performed well. Peter is unproven. Maybe he is good or maybe he was just lucky. We have no idea.
What I can tell you
As I said elsewhere, I'm probably lowballing it. Here's a fun exercise:
Go back 5 years to when the dow was about 26000. Multiply that total by the high end of inflation-adjusted returns (say, 1.085%) for 5 years and you get today's number of about 40k. Run that same calculation for the next 5 years and you get about 58,700.
We know it doesn't return so simply or predictably, but even if it misses that mark it would be very likely to achieve it in a corrected state at some point near to the 5 year outlook. Maybe that number is achieved in 6 years who knows.
Always has, always will, until it doesn't and then at that point it won't matter. So just sick with the first half of this sentence. What else you gunna do?
Just adding more to your point. Totally agree.
Because everyone has heard a story of someone picking a book stock or for example buying at the bottom of the covid dip. Might as well buy scratch tickets though if you’re hoping for that.
Yeah it’ll probably be higher than that in 5 years (unless there’s a recession for whatever reason).
This actually got me to look up the formula for compounding interest because I couldn’t work it out in my head. Hadn’t thought about that since college lol
Exactly. The timidness of this sub compared to the craziness of that other sub... its striking. Just buy now and in a decade you will still make money.
What is it with Redditors who know only two modes: buy at any price or you're timing the market?
Puts or shorting do require timing. OP might be interested in neither. One may very well think that most stocks are overvalued and a high yield savings account would be wise until prices return to reason. May take a year, may take two, no assumption on when.
PE ratios do not grow to infinity. And a crash is not the only possibility. Stocks can also correct over time by staying flat while earnings increase as expected. A savings account returned more since November 2020 than Tesla, whose revenue tripled and operating income quadrupled during that period.
And if you think a S&P500 ETF is guaranteed, 1) you're on the wrong sub, 2) ETF's spread the risk across multiple companies. If all those companies are overvalued, your ETF runs a similar risk level. That's what OP is saying. He's not advocating for timing the market. BRK holds nearly $200B in cash for that very reason.
This exactly.
Im holding a lot of cash. I just sold Apple for 18$ a share.
I dont see many deals. Im willing to buy, but only if the value is good. Im not going to buy Apple at this peak to hope that it increases by more than 7%.
Im going to buy when I see it is a bargain. And thus, I reduce my level of risk. Because there is less chance of losing money or stagnating on a trade hoping it'll do something.
sp500 forward PE in 2012 was 12, much lower than forward PE of 15-16 in 2006. It was actually one of the cheapest forward PE outside of the bottom of 2008 recession. SP500 forward PE is about 21 now, highest among any period outside of 2021 and 1999. You're exaggerating way too much about the past.
Problem is that 2012 was also a period following extreme asset deflation and multiples priced in this risk.
One could argue 2012 stocks were too cheap and today we're just moving to what it should be to reflect appropriate tail risk in a very different environment. Better regulation, better capitalized system, higher liquidity / safeguards, etc.
2024: “The market is overvalued.”
2014: “The market is overvalued.”
2004: “The market is overvalued.”
1994: “The market is overvalued.”
1984: “The market is overvalued.”
1974: “The market is overvalued.”
That's what I said last year, 2 years (during the crash), and 5 years ago when i started really investing. It's always expensive. When its cheap during a crash, you're hesitant to buy.
In 2022, I guarantee you most of us were NOT buying facebook and Amazon. If we were the prices would never have dropped that low. The general message here was to not invest in facebook stock as it was dying after its failed VR release, and that Amazon was going down due to post-pandemic buying patterns.
Heck, even like 3 months ago, when google was down to like 130 a share, the sentiment here was not to buy google, and that it was time for a correction. It shot back up one month later.
Hold stocks in the long term.
I personally hold 25 percent in individual stocks (<10 stocks), 50 percent into ETFs (Roth/IRA in VOO, VXUS, and SCHD), and 25 percent into cash in an AMEX HYSA. I need that 25 percent liquidity as we may be buying a large purchase in the next 2.5 years, so needed funds that weren't volatile.
I don't see what's wrong with holding cash at 5% when the market is at an all time high... The fact that very few people are entertaining any near term risk in stocks right now is interesting.
What people that hold don't understand is that every day millions of peoples 401k is automatically buying into the market... Upward pressure is inevitable
Uh, there is value all over the place. Forward pe 10x, 13, 12, on shit projecting upper single digit cagrs. TTM is not useful, I gauge everything 1 year out and if it's 30% below historic multiples with steady growth that's a value. Also do not mistake elevated pe as overpriced, look at the projections, if it's a 15 or 20% cagr expect 30x+ forward pe
People want deals to fall out of the sky but don't have the patience to wait until wonderful companies hit fair prices. There are always opportunities in the market.
I will be hearing this sentiment for decades to come.
Meanwhile, I will be DCAing all of my investments while you sit here and try to time the market, missing out of even more gains.
There will always be buying opportunities. Just because the market is at ath, doesn’t mean all the stocks are. In a bull market, you buy what’s cheap. In a bear market, you buy the best stocks that are cheap
I went 50% cash a few weeks ago in my retirement prior to the last pull back, felt like a genius. Market was down 5% over a week or something like that. I had a major stake in TSM which dropped hard. Fast forward a week it has bounced back dramatically, with TsM cruising way past what I sold for. Now I feel like you that it’s all overpriced but it doesn’t matter, it’s going to keep riding upward I think until a big pullback due to some major news of some kind
Don’t be so timid.
This shit is not going down anytime soon with the costs of buying houses reaching unaffordable levels millennial and Gen Zs only option is to pump the stock market.
I think the market is pricing/front running a sharp rate cut cycle (recession) hence the run on somewhat expensive tech stocks while the others still swimming at the bottom of the ocean. Especially look at Gold’s price level. The market basically calling Fed’s bluff, that might not end well to the market and economy. There are still some opportunities here and there but not a lot.
The most effective way to get people to share what they know, tell them you know how it is and encourage them to correct you. I’d say there’s never been a better time to be in gold or bonds. Aggressive hike cycle, large cap driven bull run, prolific uncertainty/ reasonable probability of recession, geopolitical volatility etc. Wait a year or so and your favorite companies will be 10% cheaper.
Intel is so undervalued right now it's almost like buying it 10 years ago. I'm tech head, and all my reasoning tells me it's a strong buy. But I don't know jack about business and investing so I hesitate.
Intel is pretty entrenched, but they got complacent and fucked up big time and let AMD start innovating harder than they were.
Intel isn't going anywhere, but it's not as cool as it once was.
STNE is cheap relative to growth, SE is cheap relative to growth, Fairfax holdings is cheap relative to how much float it generates and its balance sheet
INTC is cheap relative in spite of its dog shit culture
Buy copper and gold stocks they are way undervalued. I currently have a significant number of shares in Arizona metals and Equinox Gold Corp. But do you own research
I’m all in on a LETF and call options, and call options on LETFs. I don’t mean to belittle those of opposing beliefs, but as a child you are taught money has value, the system is there to help you, and things/people are valued at their actual worth. As you grow you realize money is as “real” as the number 0, the people who control the market are also invested in it, and price can be chosen.
There’s no shot in hell nancy pelosi and the incumbent party are going to let the market slide, and damn sure not in an election year. Hop in and take the free money while it’s there to grab.
After the election, democrats in office is usually better for the market, and donald trump pumped the thing like a fine Estonian whore. My only question is will 2025 be a 15% or a 30% year.
We are at such a rare moment in time. I feel so blessed to be alive right now.
The last one was the Internet which is how was able to retire with 8 kids in my 40s.
But now we got an even bigger one with AI. That is where you want to play.
Companies like Google are NOT expensive, IMO, when you consider just how much money they will make in the next decade as AI takes over everything.
Things like Waymo is just one example of applying AI. There are so many more. Pretty much every industry will be disrupted because of AI.
Just invest accordingly and sit back and enjoy.
Buffet is not you and I and his investing opportunities are significantly less than a retail investor I wouldn't even reference his strategy for the normal ppl lol
Dude, it's good to have cash on hand in case of a once-in-lifetime crash. But you also need to be in the market. One thing that I've been doing is a weekly dump into ITOT. Sometimes I buy high, sometimes, low... Whatever happens, I try not to think about it. There are some great large caps trading at discounts: Accenture, Cisco, Lowe's, PayPal, Nike, etc. But nothing "guaranteed" is cheap right now. I'm investing heavily in Polestar (PSNY) but I'm not going past 0.75% of my total portfolio. And this is a long term hold.
The mathematicians out there can probably answer better. Your cash in a money market account is returning 5%/year. These are pretty good gains TBH. I think this is why a lot of people are holding onto cash right now. I think anywhere from 5%-25% cash right now is acceptable. I think more important though is to make sure you have money in the market. This is why, yes, I'm diversified, started new positions in HRL, OEC, OPRA, ACN, and PSNY (which is my longshot), and I'm looking for new adds... but in the meantime, I have my weekly contributions into ITOT--my single largest investment (25% of portfolio) and has returned my largest gains.
Things are just swinging around. Mining is doing great, banks are undervalued and set to soar, and a lot are going to wallow and do nothing for a long time.
Just so everyone knows, Buffett is wrong and he readily admits he is many times.
I'm nervous as hell but not ready to sell yet.
Not american, from Sweden and out inflation has been even worse than in USA, so cash isn't great, but sitting on about 75% Stocks/ETF's, 12.5% cash, 12.5% crypto (haven't bought crypto in like 2 years, just letting it sit).
I’m 300k into T bills. I do have a lot in equities and keep investing as usual. But I feel comfortable having at least 250k in safe investments even if it isn’t making too much. If I see opportunities, I’ll invest more. Otherwise, DCA every pay day. Also the money that I’m making from T bills gets invested every month into vtsax and vtiax.
I wouldn’t be so sure. US stocks are generally higher priced compared to INT because of expectations/mature market/more innovation, but interest rates also limit investment and consumer purchases of goods. I think it’s fair to assume that stocks will go higher as interest rates lower
The sad part is that it’s really hard to beat the S&P, like ridiculously hard to pick winners over brain dead funds.
Right now it’s about pulling out before the crash to come.
Where’s the safe harbour?
How do you know stocks are overvalued? By historical standards? The market cares nothing about history only about valuing perceived future earnings today. If stocks keep rising then it was undervalued when you said it was overvalued. The market only looks to the future. It cares nothing about the past.
I only buy during pessimism, and tap margin if markets fall further after I've deployed my cash. Right now I'm paying down margin and rebuilding my cash hoard. This is the way.
I think there are definitely some stocks out there that are underweight, but the market is definitely reaching new highs. Honestly, we don't know what will happen, I'm sure prices now look absolutely crazy compared to those even during the tech boom.
The idea of trillion dollar companies pre-2007 seemed farcical... now you have Apple sitting valued at 3 trillion dollars, and some people are still expecting that to go up.
I'm a conservative guy, so I'm actually something similar to yourself. About 50% in stocks and shares, most of that just tracking the market. I like the current interest rates and changes to UK ISA rules regardless of inflation I like to have a decent buffer of cash on hand just incase.
We are exiting a bear cycle..the next bull cycle could run 6 years.. stocks today could be much cheaper than they will be in 6 years.. the biggest question is. How long till you need to cash out.. 20 years you might be better in than waiting to time..5 years you might be better stock piling some cash for yield..
Cannabis stocks aren’t overvalued? Lol.
Greenthumb and trulieve trading at 5% FCf yield for a growth company, 6-7x ev/ebitda when cpg trades 14x +.
Custody will open eventually - and when it opens the re-rate will happen quickly, or likely the rerate will happen just before custody opens.
>about 50% cash atm What's not to like about > 5% yield on Tbills while you're waiting to acquire equity at the right price?
Some money market funds which are closer to cash equivalent are paying around 5% anyway.
No state tax on treasuries.
i get 7-month to 1 year CDs through my regional bank. i am not sending my $$ away to a random online bank liaison/middleman that could fold overnight to get 0.25% more or lets say robinhood. i am an old.
Fidelity cash sweep pays 5%. They’re about as reputable and durable as they come.
wasn’t referring to credible brokers. fidelity has a superb reputation and if schwab screws up td ameritrade’s operations, fidelity is my first option to consider.
Schwab already screwed up. I moved to Fidelity and haven’t looked back
Also moved to fidelity from TD. Very happy
yep, fidelity ftw
Does it really matter if the bank folds if it's FDIC insured?
Earn 5% on cash. Use cash as collateral for selling puts. Profit.
Sell puts at all time high? That doesn't seem risky at all...
You don't know where we stand. The finacial market still has to digest 20 trillion additional cash from the ZIRP and the corona bonds. Could easily happen that the inflation returns and nominal sharevalues shoot up another 20%.
i understood some of these words
Money printer went brrrr so stonks go up.
lol "digest". 40% of all USD in existence was printed in the last 5 years. This is only the beginning to be felt, and its impacts and scale far dwarf 20T total imapct. This will be with us for the next 15, 20, 25 years...
Yea, what I meant all that cash is gonna get invested at some point which inflates the stock prices. Its pretty naive to think we are at an especially high nominal point.
Any rising market chart is going to hit all time highs, time and time again. Look at the S&P 500 chart, zoom out to max, scan from left to right and count the number of ATH peaks.
Missing time in the market.
Maybe stock market returning 20% last 12 months?
Why not add duration to rip equity like returns from bonds? If stocks go 10-15% south we probably have a recession and rates will be priced for aggressive fed cuts
Even a High Yield Savings is earning close to 5% lol
Honda is cheap. Paypal is cheap. Many banks are cheap.
I pulled out my Honda mower today after being neglected and sitting idle for 9 months in my garage, unwintered with the gas and oil in it left over from last year. Fired up on the first pull and crushed my lawn. Long Honda.
Dude; same
Buy one mower and keep it for life? Doesn't sound like recurring revenue to me. Short Honda.
This is why we can’t have nice things anymore
I mean they are definitely more expensive that the average mower, so there's that but I think that's also a detriment to their sales seeing how broke people are.
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https://www.lawnsite.com/threads/honda-places-stop-sale-order-on-hrn216-and-hrx217k-mowers.515518/ https://www.protoolreviews.com/honda-exiting-gas-lawn-mower-market/ Everyone is going ego.
Well shit, good thing I have a Honda mower that will last. It's already 8 years old, but runs just as good as the day I bought her.... may have to actually start taking care of her now so she lasts until I can't physically mow no mo.
Not like that!
Arizona tea is still cheap!!
Cost co hot dog or pizza combo is cheap!
Shit, a trip around the sun while on earth is still free… till some corporation figures out how to tax us for it.
Hondas are inexpensive for the quality of the automobile- not cheap.
What’s sweet about Hondas is they’re all classified as mowers so OWIs don’t count in them
I lurrrve Honda engines. Bomb proof rev monsters.
Automakers are cheap in general Volkswagen is trading at less than 4x earnings with a 6% dividend.
Not like that!
People are sleeping on PYPL but then they say things like “the market is really overvalued” No, no it’s not. But investing is risky, and risks sometimes pay off. They are generally proportional to reward, too. If you feel yourself needing to leave this market because it’s risky, maybe you’re getting old. The market has never been more ripe for investment, due to cryptocurrency overshadowing real, tangible investments with earnings backings. That’s “boring” these days.
I bought PYPL last fall at $58. I like the fundamentals and I feel it’s undervalued, but my thoughts and feelings are irrelevant to what happens. It’s gone up a little bit, but it’s not exciting or a big mover. If you’re doing it right there shouldn’t be many “exciting” moments in stock buying/selling, if you’re gambling…. HELLS YES, but know when you’re investing or gambling.
What makes you think it's undervalued? I worry it will be easily replaced by other services in the future. What advantage does it have?
Decent growth. Low P/E. New leadership. Brand recognition with Venmo. Large active seller/buyer platform that is baked in with an ecosystem. I’m an idiot, so I recommend you don’t take my advice.
Personally I feel like PayPal is getting destroyed by everything from stripe to Cashapp
They do own Venmo, who's still big player
How long until Zelle takes that away? More and more of my friends are switching to Zelle
Brand recognition
Anybody who's looked into PayPal properly will release its undervalued.
PayPal doesn't get any love
Banks are cheap for a reason
Mainly just bears waiting for a recession that’s not coming for the next decade
I was just reading about an undervalued stock. A company that fixes airplanes.
Boeing is probably too big to die, but it's a terrible company. Any engineer who go work at Boeing has settled for a cushy job consisting of filling out paperwork and doing nothing. Just go to the boeing subreddit to find out.
There's a worldwide need for about 2,500 airliners each year and only two companies making them, along with certain airlines having loyalty to the brand. They'll get through this.
Yes, those airplanes do indeed need fixing...
It's interesting because a month ago the stock path looked about how the flight paths look, but it seems like they were able to correct the stock path. Shame the engineering focus isn't as strong as the business focus though.
Whole small cap index is cheap relative to history Index VTWO Bonds are disgustingly cheap. I don't know how anyone can look at TLT and not see a deal
I’ve actually been using this as an opportunity to buy bonds (for the first time in my life).
Yea I bought some BND for the first time two weeks ago
How much was the opportunity cost of holding 50% cash? How high has the market gone? How much higher will it go? S&P500 is up 12% so far this year, who knows if it’ll go higher or lower from here. But we all know anyone not invested missed out on that 12%. Not to mention there are definitely good deals out there. Just need to be strong enough to buy. If you aren’t willing to buy while stocks go up, will you be able to buy when they’re going down?
> If you aren’t willing to buy while stocks go up, will you be able to buy when they’re going down? Yep, it always seems so logical that a correction might come and then when it comes I'll buy and suddenly (if it happens) it feels like catching a falling knife, so you try to wait for the bottom, hmm it's going up, probably a bulltrap and then all the gains are made by others.
Don't buy stocks, buy the market.
This. Then if the market blows up, sell out of the market and buy stocks for a bigger rebound
actually a smart idea, never thought about that
No guarantee the stocks you pick will rebound harder than the benchmark or rebound at all.
OP believes we should be pricing stuff like the 1920s, when it is actually the opposite.
>when it is actually the opposite. The 1920s should be pricing us?
Just sold thank you
The 1920s should be pricing stuff like OP believes
I guess rare to beat spy by any stock in downturn. It is safe way dip into market when you can’t find a bargain. Or get into stocks in spy index with relatively cheaper valuations. But they are cheap for a reason. Spy or MM.
Bought Walmart sir, what now?
Eat the market Profit
Was it Charlie Munger or Peter Lynch who said, “more money’s been lost waiting for the next drop than was ever lost in a crash.” Or thereabouts.
That was lynch who only managed a fund starting from the very bottom of a market in 1977 to the best bull run in market history till 1990. He never faced a major bear market in his short tenure. Obviously, in a bull market, you will outperform with high risk equities. Basically he was the Kathy of the time but Kathy eventually got hammered by two major bear markets. Those destroyed her overall returns to the point that she has probably under performed the S&P at this point, through her long career. Also note in his final 3 years (1987 to early1990), the bull market finally started to normalize and he probably under performed the S&P in that span. Truth is his performance is largely front loaded based on entering at the bottom of a bear market which was just luck, not skill. From 1984 to 1990 he wasnt very impressive at all compared to a plain S&P500 index. In fact his last 6 years he only outperformed the S&P by about 2.7% yoy. Not exactly fantastic when you consider people were paying fees on this that were likely higher than his out performance. Point being, the best investors faced bear markets and still performed well. Peter is unproven. Maybe he is good or maybe he was just lucky. We have no idea. What I can tell you
Dow will be at 50k within 5 years, if not sooner. Don't be so timid, you're missing out on the upside.
That’s less than 4% gain per year. Might as well buy 5 year bonds which have a 4.5% par
As I said elsewhere, I'm probably lowballing it. Here's a fun exercise: Go back 5 years to when the dow was about 26000. Multiply that total by the high end of inflation-adjusted returns (say, 1.085%) for 5 years and you get today's number of about 40k. Run that same calculation for the next 5 years and you get about 58,700. We know it doesn't return so simply or predictably, but even if it misses that mark it would be very likely to achieve it in a corrected state at some point near to the 5 year outlook. Maybe that number is achieved in 6 years who knows.
You are lowballing 10 years. Look kids. The bear market did its job. Will we recess? Yes. But the market will be higher then than when we recover.
Always has, always will, until it doesn't and then at that point it won't matter. So just sick with the first half of this sentence. What else you gunna do? Just adding more to your point. Totally agree.
Time in the market beats timing the market.
Not sure why this is so difficult for people to accept.
Cuz buy and hold is relatively boring and people don’t feel like the main character of a movie while they lose money on their trades
Because everyone has heard a story of someone picking a book stock or for example buying at the bottom of the covid dip. Might as well buy scratch tickets though if you’re hoping for that.
Yeah it’ll probably be higher than that in 5 years (unless there’s a recession for whatever reason). This actually got me to look up the formula for compounding interest because I couldn’t work it out in my head. Hadn’t thought about that since college lol
DIA has a monthly dividend (currently near 2%) and they compound. Compounding is powerful.
But this guy will successfully guess 1 recession out of his 1000 guesses.
It's like all the bears. Call a recession often enough, and you'll be right eventually. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Exactly. The timidness of this sub compared to the craziness of that other sub... its striking. Just buy now and in a decade you will still make money.
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What’s that thing about the market versus your liquidity …… The 2000 tech bull market went way longer than it had any right to
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
Our entire reality basically relies on the stock market succeeding. Not the best thing to bet against.
What is it with Redditors who know only two modes: buy at any price or you're timing the market? Puts or shorting do require timing. OP might be interested in neither. One may very well think that most stocks are overvalued and a high yield savings account would be wise until prices return to reason. May take a year, may take two, no assumption on when. PE ratios do not grow to infinity. And a crash is not the only possibility. Stocks can also correct over time by staying flat while earnings increase as expected. A savings account returned more since November 2020 than Tesla, whose revenue tripled and operating income quadrupled during that period. And if you think a S&P500 ETF is guaranteed, 1) you're on the wrong sub, 2) ETF's spread the risk across multiple companies. If all those companies are overvalued, your ETF runs a similar risk level. That's what OP is saying. He's not advocating for timing the market. BRK holds nearly $200B in cash for that very reason.
Because Reddit is full of dumbasses who think “if you’re not with us, you’re against us”.
This exactly. Im holding a lot of cash. I just sold Apple for 18$ a share. I dont see many deals. Im willing to buy, but only if the value is good. Im not going to buy Apple at this peak to hope that it increases by more than 7%. Im going to buy when I see it is a bargain. And thus, I reduce my level of risk. Because there is less chance of losing money or stagnating on a trade hoping it'll do something.
You don't "time the market" . You follow the market trend. People who try to 'time the market" will lose a lot of money fast.
Things I heard in 2017 Things I heard in 2012
sp500 forward PE in 2012 was 12, much lower than forward PE of 15-16 in 2006. It was actually one of the cheapest forward PE outside of the bottom of 2008 recession. SP500 forward PE is about 21 now, highest among any period outside of 2021 and 1999. You're exaggerating way too much about the past.
Problem is that 2012 was also a period following extreme asset deflation and multiples priced in this risk. One could argue 2012 stocks were too cheap and today we're just moving to what it should be to reflect appropriate tail risk in a very different environment. Better regulation, better capitalized system, higher liquidity / safeguards, etc.
2024: “The market is overvalued.” 2014: “The market is overvalued.” 2004: “The market is overvalued.” 1994: “The market is overvalued.” 1984: “The market is overvalued.” 1974: “The market is overvalued.”
That's what I said last year, 2 years (during the crash), and 5 years ago when i started really investing. It's always expensive. When its cheap during a crash, you're hesitant to buy. In 2022, I guarantee you most of us were NOT buying facebook and Amazon. If we were the prices would never have dropped that low. The general message here was to not invest in facebook stock as it was dying after its failed VR release, and that Amazon was going down due to post-pandemic buying patterns. Heck, even like 3 months ago, when google was down to like 130 a share, the sentiment here was not to buy google, and that it was time for a correction. It shot back up one month later. Hold stocks in the long term. I personally hold 25 percent in individual stocks (<10 stocks), 50 percent into ETFs (Roth/IRA in VOO, VXUS, and SCHD), and 25 percent into cash in an AMEX HYSA. I need that 25 percent liquidity as we may be buying a large purchase in the next 2.5 years, so needed funds that weren't volatile.
I bought estate and banking industry stocks last year when everyone was saying they're in big trouble, I'm 20% ytd right now
When the majority of stocks were cheap in late 2022 and 2023. if you mentioned buying them you got downvoted on this sub.
I don't see what's wrong with holding cash at 5% when the market is at an all time high... The fact that very few people are entertaining any near term risk in stocks right now is interesting.
Wait until NVDA hits 1500 and they split the stock…
Holding is foolish. I did this and it burned me every time. Just DCA and never think.
What people that hold don't understand is that every day millions of peoples 401k is automatically buying into the market... Upward pressure is inevitable
ABB. always be buying
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Uh, there is value all over the place. Forward pe 10x, 13, 12, on shit projecting upper single digit cagrs. TTM is not useful, I gauge everything 1 year out and if it's 30% below historic multiples with steady growth that's a value. Also do not mistake elevated pe as overpriced, look at the projections, if it's a 15 or 20% cagr expect 30x+ forward pe
People want deals to fall out of the sky but don't have the patience to wait until wonderful companies hit fair prices. There are always opportunities in the market.
I will be hearing this sentiment for decades to come. Meanwhile, I will be DCAing all of my investments while you sit here and try to time the market, missing out of even more gains.
watch hedge fund buys. There are opportunities out there
Monkey see, monkey do! Joking aside, it does work. Also watch Pelosi’s buys…
Small caps are completely cheap if we avoid a recession.
There will always be buying opportunities. Just because the market is at ath, doesn’t mean all the stocks are. In a bull market, you buy what’s cheap. In a bear market, you buy the best stocks that are cheap
Its always good to keep some cash on the side. But I don't think this market is going down.
I went 50% cash a few weeks ago in my retirement prior to the last pull back, felt like a genius. Market was down 5% over a week or something like that. I had a major stake in TSM which dropped hard. Fast forward a week it has bounced back dramatically, with TsM cruising way past what I sold for. Now I feel like you that it’s all overpriced but it doesn’t matter, it’s going to keep riding upward I think until a big pullback due to some major news of some kind
Don’t be so timid. This shit is not going down anytime soon with the costs of buying houses reaching unaffordable levels millennial and Gen Zs only option is to pump the stock market.
Sell CC
Intel is cheap
Everything is over priced. Want a house - 500k. Want a new car - 100k. Want a baby- 150k. Want a marriage- 20k. Want a fucking mcchicken 25$
McChickens were 89c at my local McDOnald's in like 2004. Pretty sure they're like $3 or some shit now, it's bananas xD
I’ve been in Sharkninja for 2 years. Well run company and the stock just keeps chugging along.
Hell yeah, I love every product I've ever bought from them. I use my air-fryer on like a daily basis lol. And their blenders are pretty damn good too.
$COPP is copper etf, copper is having a big run due to data center demand. Still has plenty of room to run.
You have to remember the massive amount of inflation we have. Prices look expensive but that's just the new reality
Champions don’t sit on the sidelines.
I think the market is pricing/front running a sharp rate cut cycle (recession) hence the run on somewhat expensive tech stocks while the others still swimming at the bottom of the ocean. Especially look at Gold’s price level. The market basically calling Fed’s bluff, that might not end well to the market and economy. There are still some opportunities here and there but not a lot.
The most effective way to get people to share what they know, tell them you know how it is and encourage them to correct you. I’d say there’s never been a better time to be in gold or bonds. Aggressive hike cycle, large cap driven bull run, prolific uncertainty/ reasonable probability of recession, geopolitical volatility etc. Wait a year or so and your favorite companies will be 10% cheaper.
Intel is so undervalued right now it's almost like buying it 10 years ago. I'm tech head, and all my reasoning tells me it's a strong buy. But I don't know jack about business and investing so I hesitate.
Intel is pretty entrenched, but they got complacent and fucked up big time and let AMD start innovating harder than they were. Intel isn't going anywhere, but it's not as cool as it once was.
It looks like a good buy to me, also idk what I'm doing.
STNE is cheap relative to growth, SE is cheap relative to growth, Fairfax holdings is cheap relative to how much float it generates and its balance sheet INTC is cheap relative in spite of its dog shit culture
When in doubt, go for SPY. Or high dividends. Whichever floats your boat.
Buy copper and gold stocks they are way undervalued. I currently have a significant number of shares in Arizona metals and Equinox Gold Corp. But do you own research
I’m all in on a LETF and call options, and call options on LETFs. I don’t mean to belittle those of opposing beliefs, but as a child you are taught money has value, the system is there to help you, and things/people are valued at their actual worth. As you grow you realize money is as “real” as the number 0, the people who control the market are also invested in it, and price can be chosen. There’s no shot in hell nancy pelosi and the incumbent party are going to let the market slide, and damn sure not in an election year. Hop in and take the free money while it’s there to grab. After the election, democrats in office is usually better for the market, and donald trump pumped the thing like a fine Estonian whore. My only question is will 2025 be a 15% or a 30% year.
Rio Tinto?
Foreign equities are pretty cheap, especially in Europe
We are at such a rare moment in time. I feel so blessed to be alive right now. The last one was the Internet which is how was able to retire with 8 kids in my 40s. But now we got an even bigger one with AI. That is where you want to play. Companies like Google are NOT expensive, IMO, when you consider just how much money they will make in the next decade as AI takes over everything. Things like Waymo is just one example of applying AI. There are so many more. Pretty much every industry will be disrupted because of AI. Just invest accordingly and sit back and enjoy.
We’ve had two bear markets in the last four years. If you didn’t load up in either of those then you may have to admit stock picking is not for you.
I've seen these type of posts for years now. You would've left a lot of money on the table if you listened to people like OP
This is why you're not making money.
Shopify is cheap
Buffet agrees with you.
Buffet is not you and I and his investing opportunities are significantly less than a retail investor I wouldn't even reference his strategy for the normal ppl lol
In 5 years you’ll look back and say “damn it was cheap back then”.
at some point in time not too far from now, we'll think of a $21 burrito as the halcyon days xD
China, Tobacco, & REITs are still cheap
A year ago everything was at lows, META crashed to $100 from $355 in 2022 and it happened in a year. It’ll happen again. Profits have to be taken..
Long shot : BA Short term: SPYD QQQ
Mining stocks are cheap And unloved despite higher metal prices?
When the Fed gives a rate cut, stocks are going to really soar…
im always 100% in thw market. up 26% last year and 12% so far this year EF in SGOV
Mining stocks are still very cheap.
Dude, it's good to have cash on hand in case of a once-in-lifetime crash. But you also need to be in the market. One thing that I've been doing is a weekly dump into ITOT. Sometimes I buy high, sometimes, low... Whatever happens, I try not to think about it. There are some great large caps trading at discounts: Accenture, Cisco, Lowe's, PayPal, Nike, etc. But nothing "guaranteed" is cheap right now. I'm investing heavily in Polestar (PSNY) but I'm not going past 0.75% of my total portfolio. And this is a long term hold.
What % cash do you think is appropriate?
The mathematicians out there can probably answer better. Your cash in a money market account is returning 5%/year. These are pretty good gains TBH. I think this is why a lot of people are holding onto cash right now. I think anywhere from 5%-25% cash right now is acceptable. I think more important though is to make sure you have money in the market. This is why, yes, I'm diversified, started new positions in HRL, OEC, OPRA, ACN, and PSNY (which is my longshot), and I'm looking for new adds... but in the meantime, I have my weekly contributions into ITOT--my single largest investment (25% of portfolio) and has returned my largest gains.
Silver?
solar is cheap. except no one wants to touch it. waiting for SEDG to get down to $44 and then gonna go all-in.
95% invested
So just DCA and buy when it gets cheaper???? Why are people acting like this is a new thing lol
There is literally always good companies at good prices. Finding them is hard. And the idea that everyone you looked at is “expensive” is sad
$RKLB undervalued, coming into profitability around Q3-25.
Things are just swinging around. Mining is doing great, banks are undervalued and set to soar, and a lot are going to wallow and do nothing for a long time. Just so everyone knows, Buffett is wrong and he readily admits he is many times. I'm nervous as hell but not ready to sell yet.
Warren is that you?
PAGS Seguro is inexpensive compared to peers
This is gonna get downvoted but I think Novovax is a solid investment
That’s why I sold it all
Inflation my friend
IBRX ImmunityBio
Talking is cheap
Set a recurring buy every week, 2 weeks, or month for ETFs and stocks you like. Set and forget. Timing the market is tough
I’ve been sitting on 2x leveraged QQQ and SPY ETFs since 2008, and will continue doing so for the next 10-15 years It’s very easy
Not american, from Sweden and out inflation has been even worse than in USA, so cash isn't great, but sitting on about 75% Stocks/ETF's, 12.5% cash, 12.5% crypto (haven't bought crypto in like 2 years, just letting it sit).
I’m about 33% cash. Don’t see much cheap. Locking some cash away in one year fixed savings accounts.
coinbase?
I’m 300k into T bills. I do have a lot in equities and keep investing as usual. But I feel comfortable having at least 250k in safe investments even if it isn’t making too much. If I see opportunities, I’ll invest more. Otherwise, DCA every pay day. Also the money that I’m making from T bills gets invested every month into vtsax and vtiax.
TSMC is laughable undervalued for what it is. Especially when it diversifies to the US and can function withouth their Taiwanese holdings.
Wait for the inevitable crash brother
If you're an American pretty much any foreign stock is cheap right now.
I wouldn’t be so sure. US stocks are generally higher priced compared to INT because of expectations/mature market/more innovation, but interest rates also limit investment and consumer purchases of goods. I think it’s fair to assume that stocks will go higher as interest rates lower
50% cash? How long have you been sidelined for lol
Short
>Majority of stocks are overvalued Go short if you're convinced about this.
You might want to look up dollar cost averaging
This is about the 100th post I’ve seen about stocks being overvalued the last two years.
The sad part is that it’s really hard to beat the S&P, like ridiculously hard to pick winners over brain dead funds. Right now it’s about pulling out before the crash to come. Where’s the safe harbour?
How do you know stocks are overvalued? By historical standards? The market cares nothing about history only about valuing perceived future earnings today. If stocks keep rising then it was undervalued when you said it was overvalued. The market only looks to the future. It cares nothing about the past.
I only buy during pessimism, and tap margin if markets fall further after I've deployed my cash. Right now I'm paying down margin and rebuilding my cash hoard. This is the way.
Nothing wrong with just holding cash it’s always good to be patient.
I think there are definitely some stocks out there that are underweight, but the market is definitely reaching new highs. Honestly, we don't know what will happen, I'm sure prices now look absolutely crazy compared to those even during the tech boom. The idea of trillion dollar companies pre-2007 seemed farcical... now you have Apple sitting valued at 3 trillion dollars, and some people are still expecting that to go up. I'm a conservative guy, so I'm actually something similar to yourself. About 50% in stocks and shares, most of that just tracking the market. I like the current interest rates and changes to UK ISA rules regardless of inflation I like to have a decent buffer of cash on hand just incase.
We are exiting a bear cycle..the next bull cycle could run 6 years.. stocks today could be much cheaper than they will be in 6 years.. the biggest question is. How long till you need to cash out.. 20 years you might be better in than waiting to time..5 years you might be better stock piling some cash for yield..
Are you looking for cheap stocks, or are you looking for great businesses. I screen for cheap stocks and look for great businesses.
Canadian banks are on sale now and low risk for default + fair dividends?
Lots of opportunities in the small cap space as well as international. Broaden your horizons.
Cannabis stocks aren’t overvalued? Lol. Greenthumb and trulieve trading at 5% FCf yield for a growth company, 6-7x ev/ebitda when cpg trades 14x +. Custody will open eventually - and when it opens the re-rate will happen quickly, or likely the rerate will happen just before custody opens.
INTC just crashed and is probably cheap.