Well. I think you’ll see a mass exodus this year once the sprints are done. That last week looks like fresh hell. And there are no dreams of a win in Paris. Id think a ton of team will withdraw their pure sprinters after sprints are done. I don’t know the exact number off my head, I think it’s stage 16 or 17.
But as far as failing to complete it, I think it depends on weather. Usually the days that clean them out is a rainy/cold or super hot mountains day. If we get heavy rain on stage 4 I’d be prepared for some DNS/DNF.
There’s also that Covid rumor with pogi.
I did place a bet on less than 144 riders finishing haha, so I do expect it to be quite heavy
Good call. I didn’t even think about the final stage not being a sprint. Maybe some will drop out before the last sprint and give Cav one last chance for the record.
why would they do this😭unless they’re injured or sick, the sprinters would 100% be looking to maximise their opportunities to win…
I want Cav to get his record, but the others aren’t just gonna gift it to him.
I mean they’re not going to drop out just to give Cav a chance. I just meant drop out because they’re tired. And hopefully Cav sticks around.
Currently not looking great for that though…
Last stage is a Monaco to Nice Individual Time Trial over the Col d'Eze of Paris-Nice fame.
They couldn't use Paris this year because the Olympics start Friday after the Tour finishes in Paris.
I suspect we'll see a TTT in the next 2-3 years. They've tested it with new rules in Paris-Nice recently which generally means they're likely to use it on the Tour soon.
Also get ready for a proper climbing stage early. The Galibier is on stage 4. Almost like they said no Paris sprint? Ok throw everything we know out on this route.
My initial thought for this Tour was also Pedersen and Wout, but I could also see either/both of them bailing to focus on the Olympics if things aren't going well
That’s what I was wondering…If anyone would bail early because of the Olympics. But then I was wondering if anyone was planning on doing both the TdF & the Olympics. I heard the commentators mention a couple of riders who weren’t doing the tour bc they were focusing on the Olympics so I didn’t know if it was a one-or-the-other situation.
Yes i wonder if he will just try to get his one stage win to beat the record and then just.. leave? lol. Which would leave Astana kinda headless since they are very much built around him.
Getting the record would be as much advertising as they'd need to justify the team.
I think he'll stay for the sprints even if he beats the record, because one more would be even better and his mindset is as a winner.
Hopefully not. It would do a lot for his "douche bag" image if he sticks around after a possible win and just acts as a domestic for his other teams mates and helps them stage hunt from a breakaway
Just curious why do you say that?
Win and then drop out? Crash and drop out? Or realize he’s outgunned and drop out?
I think he wants it bad. He can hang on. I think he’ll stick it out. There’s a lot of chances.
But the Olympics is not a sprinters course this time. 1km at 6.5% with 9.5 km to go and team sizes maxed at 4 per team equals classics attackers and not sprinters. And while stage 18 doesn't look like a sprint stage I think it will be one keeping a bunch of sprinters around. No reason not to finish if you get to stage 18.
Hot take: GC battle will OTL at least 10 sprinters including Jakobsen before the second rest day. Half of Astana will also be washed. So Cav needs to get going.
If they all OTL, they’ll petition and be let stay. Especially if Cav is in that group. They aren’t going to deal with all that bad PR about costing him the record for an OTL.
There's only one sure sprint stage and one possible sprint after rest day 2. And that second one is almost certainly beyond the true flatlander sprinters like Cavendish (stage 18).
(https://www.rouleur.cc/blogs/the-rouleur-journal/what-is-the-tour-de-france-time-cut-and-how-does-it-work)
Yes it has happened. Also with Cav in the group.
Well. I think you’ll see a mass exodus this year once the sprints are done. That last week looks like fresh hell. And there are no dreams of a win in Paris. Id think a ton of team will withdraw their pure sprinters after sprints are done. I don’t know the exact number off my head, I think it’s stage 16 or 17. But as far as failing to complete it, I think it depends on weather. Usually the days that clean them out is a rainy/cold or super hot mountains day. If we get heavy rain on stage 4 I’d be prepared for some DNS/DNF. There’s also that Covid rumor with pogi. I did place a bet on less than 144 riders finishing haha, so I do expect it to be quite heavy
considering we're only in the south of france, yeah, heat is a thing. <144 doable
Good call. I didn’t even think about the final stage not being a sprint. Maybe some will drop out before the last sprint and give Cav one last chance for the record.
why would they do this😭unless they’re injured or sick, the sprinters would 100% be looking to maximise their opportunities to win… I want Cav to get his record, but the others aren’t just gonna gift it to him.
I mean they’re not going to drop out just to give Cav a chance. I just meant drop out because they’re tired. And hopefully Cav sticks around. Currently not looking great for that though…
Where is the tour ending this year? No Paris sprint?!
Last stage is a Monaco to Nice Individual Time Trial over the Col d'Eze of Paris-Nice fame. They couldn't use Paris this year because the Olympics start Friday after the Tour finishes in Paris.
Makes sense! I do remember reading this now! Thank you for responding! Should be a hell of a TT! Are there any Team TT this year?!
Nope. There's a second ITT on stage 7 though. 25km and a categorized hill midway through.
Darn! Someday they will bring a TTT back! Oh, can’t wait to see if anyone makes a bike change! 👀
I suspect we'll see a TTT in the next 2-3 years. They've tested it with new rules in Paris-Nice recently which generally means they're likely to use it on the Tour soon.
Also get ready for a proper climbing stage early. The Galibier is on stage 4. Almost like they said no Paris sprint? Ok throw everything we know out on this route.
Between that and the gravel stage this could get real nuts! And I wanna get nuts!
Only the guy in green will finish the tour. The rest of them will probably leave after the last stage that could end up in a sprint.
Philipsen is really capable in the mountains for a sprinter. Can see the battle for green being him, Wout and Mads Pedersen.
My initial thought for this Tour was also Pedersen and Wout, but I could also see either/both of them bailing to focus on the Olympics if things aren't going well
Except if Jonas or Matteo need the support (with Wout that is)
That’s what I was wondering…If anyone would bail early because of the Olympics. But then I was wondering if anyone was planning on doing both the TdF & the Olympics. I heard the commentators mention a couple of riders who weren’t doing the tour bc they were focusing on the Olympics so I didn’t know if it was a one-or-the-other situation.
That guy Fabio!
Cav will probably exit stage 6
Yes i wonder if he will just try to get his one stage win to beat the record and then just.. leave? lol. Which would leave Astana kinda headless since they are very much built around him.
Getting the record would be as much advertising as they'd need to justify the team. I think he'll stay for the sprints even if he beats the record, because one more would be even better and his mindset is as a winner.
He wouldnt do that. Would he? Seems like an ass thing to do.
Hopefully not. It would do a lot for his "douche bag" image if he sticks around after a possible win and just acts as a domestic for his other teams mates and helps them stage hunt from a breakaway
Just curious why do you say that? Win and then drop out? Crash and drop out? Or realize he’s outgunned and drop out? I think he wants it bad. He can hang on. I think he’ll stick it out. There’s a lot of chances.
He took that as a challenge :/
Plus the upcoming Olympics could be a reason to leave early.
But the Olympics is not a sprinters course this time. 1km at 6.5% with 9.5 km to go and team sizes maxed at 4 per team equals classics attackers and not sprinters. And while stage 18 doesn't look like a sprint stage I think it will be one keeping a bunch of sprinters around. No reason not to finish if you get to stage 18.
Hot take: GC battle will OTL at least 10 sprinters including Jakobsen before the second rest day. Half of Astana will also be washed. So Cav needs to get going.
If they all OTL, they’ll petition and be let stay. Especially if Cav is in that group. They aren’t going to deal with all that bad PR about costing him the record for an OTL.
There's only one sure sprint stage and one possible sprint after rest day 2. And that second one is almost certainly beyond the true flatlander sprinters like Cavendish (stage 18).
Has this ever happened? Can the organisers just change the rules? Will UCI allow it?
(https://www.rouleur.cc/blogs/the-rouleur-journal/what-is-the-tour-de-france-time-cut-and-how-does-it-work) Yes it has happened. Also with Cav in the group.
This might be happening sooner than expected...
Stage 1 looks pretty brutal this year for a first day. I’m wondering if there might be some that don’t finish right off the bat. Would suck for them.
Wout Van Art