Snapshot of _New Ipsos poll for the Evening Standard: Lab 47% Con 20% LD 9% Green 8% Reform 8% Lowest Tory % ever recorded in an Ipsos poll going back to the start of their regular polling in 1978._ :
A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1764585117249327228)
A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/Samfr/status/1764585117249327228/)
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Samfr/status/1764585117249327228) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Samfr/status/1764585117249327228)
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I'm looking forward to the usual speech from a losing party 1 day after the election 'what this country clearly wants, and clearly needs, is a CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT'
[Basically this, but it's Badenoch speaking, more sinister and the words Tory government tacked onto the end. ](https://youtu.be/1CKP-00yaEg?si=SzZ7uIDEy1VgnsL-)
While we probably won't see any accusations of "stolen elections" from the Conservatives, they're definitely edging towards the "deep state" rhetoric and embracing the politicking of the Republican Party. Of course, we recently had Truss use the term verbatim while in the States.
It worries me. The Tories are rebranding themselves to align with the style of populism found in far-right parties in Poland, Italy, France, etc. The use of "cultural Marxism" (ironic when they accuse everyone else of antisemitism) is simply a rebranding of "cultural Bolshevism", and they're implicitly leaning straight into the "great replacement" conspiracy theories that inspired people like Breivik, Tarrant and Gendron.
The tories may have thought UKIP were a one off - and having the brexit vote would've ended them, but it seems there's long been another right leaning party (with some lefty bits thrown in to get some vote share) waiting, and each time it gets a little more professional and well rounded.
We had the BNP, who managed a couple of MEP seats and seemed to get prominence, UKIP in a couple of incarnations, then the Brexit Party, far more focused and slick, and now Reform UK taking that mantle. Folks running these parties aren't going away, there will always be a group to put pressure on the tory right.
For a long time the tories had a monopoly on centre right and right voters.
I'm convinced if we had a proportional voting system, the splits of the current parties would lead to a 'Pensioners Bloc' having a large number of seats.
>the splits of the current parties would lead to a 'Pensioners Bloc' having a large number of seats.
Might as well formalise the reality we already have at this point
And that's why when Labour moves to the centre the Tories are fucked. A left-leaning Labour is minority in the country, a center leaning Labour is not.
For all criticism about Labour being Tory-lite, that's how you win elections as Labour. There is nobody to spoiler Labour to the left in the same way the right-wing populists are doing with the Tories.
The Greens were polling as high as Reform a few months ago (and still are in some polls like this one). I'm not sure the left are any more united than the right.
You’d think, but just look at the US. It takes all of about nine seconds for the public to decide the democrats have had enough time to fix the latest republican economic disaster and decide to try that again.
I wonder if irregardless ever becomes a real word - like how 'literally' can officially mean 'figuratively' because it was used so much in that context.
Have the right wing in the US lost a significant amount of support? Seems they're in a bit of limbo atm with Trump's legal issues, but a significant portion of the people generally still support Trump/Conservativism?
It's insane. Trump is currently leading. There's some reason to think the polls are missing something (Trump in underperforming in the actual primaries that have happened and Biden is outperforming his margins, and Dems in general have outperformed since Roe went, plus some crosstabs are pretty suspect and I don't buy some things like Trump winning 18-29 or having by far the best margin ever with Americans) but ultimately it's insane it doesn't look like the polling in the UK right now.
The MAGA crowd are definitely a minority in the country - likely about 35% - but they all vote.
They've all effectively siloed themselves into a bubble that has a constant flow of media reaffirming their beliefs and feeding them lies about how the country is doing, just to keep them believing in Trump as their saviour.
Low turnout helps extremists, quite simply. If they can convince you "both sides are as bad as each other" and disengage you from the process, while they keep feeding their own supporters constant ragebait, they win.
Trump relies on turning out voters that typically turn out at lower rates in national elections in the US. If turnout drops in the presidential election it will hurt him and the GOP noticeably.
I mean they've only won the majority of the vote in a nationwide election twice in the 21st century, and only once in a presidential election they are just constantly in some kind of power anyway.
The difference is that Trump didn't lose that badly in 2020.
Trump's 2020 vote total is the second highest in American history behind only Biden in 2020.
Yes he lost, but he was still in a much better position than the Tories are in now
He got 46.8% in 2020.
2016 he got 46.1
Trumpism was far from crushed. A lot of Republicans were secretly quite pleased with their quantitative performance
Honestly given how long pundits said Boris Johnson would be in power after 2019 I wouldn't count my chickens. Fingers crossed Keir Starmer can avoid the litany of scandals that have plagued the Tories.
>It feels like it has reached a point where the general public's opinion is anyone but the Tories now.
Indeed, enthusiasm for Starmer remains quite feint yet he's about to storm to victory.
However, It was anyone but Corbyn just a few years ago...
These are death throes - the electorate are swinging wildly, in reaction to the inexorable fall in living standards, the rise in poverty/inequality/corruption.
The swings are probably going to grow ever more violent - Labour are going to be *incredibly* hamstrung and it's highly unlikely they will be able to halt the economic decline, despite best efforts. Simply too much damage has been done over the last 14+ years.
So the question is - what comes ***after*** Labour have failed to halt the decline?
Very unlikely to be a Tory government.
I don't know what it will be...but it will be something fcuking nasty - of that I am confident.
Yup, if we don't get regulation of media & social media. If we don't get some form of PR. 2029 is gonna be a shitshow, that's before climate change disrupts the food supply and makes current migration trends clear for the trivial problem it is.
Clearly swings are a lot quicker these days, going from a Tory landslide in 2019 to a potentially even bigger Labour one in 2024. Which of course carries the risk that voters may swing away from Labour equally quickly - not necessarily back towards the Tories though.
>It feels like it has reached a point where the general public's opinion is anyone but the Tories now
I wouldn't be so sure, they're still at 20% and it wouldn't take much to get back to an electable %. I'm sure this will rise as we approach an election too
It'll be interesting to see what happens as we approach an election. It feels like the Tories have been in full campaigning mode for the past 5 years, so they may not have much space left to get a campaigning bump. Labour on the other hand have basically kept quiet for ages, so do have some scope to change people's opinions when they properly announce their policies.
The consensus has always been thst as the election approaches the tory % will go up. I was totally buying into that line of thinking as well. But the election *is* approaching, and the number keeps going down.
In the actual campaign the big advantage Labour and the Tories have is ground game - they have at least *some* presence virtually everywhere, and this will get picked up in the polling. The Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens will have candidates everywhere, but there will only be a few target seats that they throw everything at.
Though outside the campaign itself they are losing support. The best time for Sunak to call an election was in May of last year as that would have been a defeat only as bad as 1997.
[Just need one more point swing from the Tories to Labour and the Tories would be exclusively a Scottish Party…](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=10&LAB=48&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=17&SCOTLAB=35&SCOTLIB=7.5&SCOTReform=2&SCOTGreen=1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=33&display=AllChanged®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2019nbbase)
If that’s your worst case scenario, what’s your actual assumption?
Because your worst case scenario for the tories is what I actually assume to happen lol - maybe not mid 400s for Labour, but I see the Tories in the upper level of 100, and Labour above 400 but by like 10, or 20.
I think that is what is most likely to happen. I confused the two. Worst case scenario is like 80 seats for the Tories. No matter what happens I think labour will do better than 1997.
Agreed, but better to view it in the lens of being compared to Labour rather than Lib Dems. As Lib Dems would also be under represented with these figures and Labour vastly over represented.
Also this large swing results in Labour taking lots of seats from third place. Some of these would probably go Lib dem. This had Labour winning Henley and Thame as a three way marginal, when they were a distant third in 2019
A few in London, mainly from seats that were Change Uk, ( Finchley and Golders green), however most seats will go Liberal Democrat instead of Labour. Finchley and Golders green is the Only seat that I think labour will win straight from third, since in Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster, they would be second under the new boundaries.
This is not including Exmouth and Exeter East, Ashfield or Beaconsfield, where Labour can gain from third, but not with the Lib dems Second
I looked at the seats the Conservatives are projected to win and that number has 2 caveats
1) national polling can cause weird regional results, this has the conservatives winning 6 seats in Scotland, which I doubt will happen in a scenario such as this.
2) 2 seats are effected by independents being in second place in 2019, Beaconsfield and Exmouth and exeter east. Both Would probably change hands.
Total number of conservative seats is probably closer to 20
Just a note that UK wide polls, even those done with 1000+ responses, are typically not very accurate at predicting outcomes in Wales and Scotland. These places need their own large samples.
For example. The last Ipsos Scotland-specific poll had the SNP winning 40 seats, here it is 18.
They're reasonably ok in wales (mainly because plaid is a non factor in most constituencies) but bad in Scotland mainly because every non island seat in Scotland is marginal and could be potentially be won or lost by the snp on a relatively small swing.
They target a smaller amount of seats compared to the big parties. The Tories collapse in southern England is also helping the lib dems win some of the Tory/LD margins despite their vote share not increasing by an insane amount in these seats.
You should see what stats for lefties model shows on twitter. There model using this polls shows the tories winning 4 seats if an election was held today. Lol.
I think he genuinely thinks he can turn this around.
The bigger the mountain he conquers, the bigger the statues and parades will be in his honour, the more chapters will be devoted to him in the history books.
Boris believed it and I think Sunak thinks the same.
I don't think the public can even conceptualise how high an opinion of themselves the political class of this country has. Their minds have completely locked out the concept of personal failure. You will never be able to convince them they have made a mistake or are doing something wrong.
I dunno. I think they all knew the inevitable way back when they appointed Truss.
I reckon he's been given the task of staying the course until a GE has to be called to give the party time to make plans for the upcoming disintegration.
They'll use this to clean house and get the party back to what they think it should be and Sunak will have a master key access to the party in his future corporate endeavours in the US.
This sets a future Tory party up for some prime right wing, US corporate deals when attempting to privatise the fuck out of things like the NHS.
> I reckon he's been given the task of staying the course until a GE has to be called to give the party time to make plans for the upcoming disintegration.
The problem is that no one actually told Sunak this. He clearly believes he's not a caretaker PM.
I'm sure somebody told him early on "just sit there and for fuck's sake don't touch anything" but while you can make people hear you saying words you can't make them listen to you.
Sunak seems to be the only person who thinks there's a chance in hell of him winning, but it's very difficult to determine whether he's just not publicly admitting he's screwed (because who would do that?) or if he actually believes there's a chance. I'm inclined towards the latter, just because he's really bad at politics and I think maintaining a "fake it till you make it" facade is beyond his very limited capabilities.
He needs the John Major mindset, he knew from 1992 that conservatives weren't gonna win again, and so to set the party up for success, he saved a bunch of money for the government, which when labour got into power, the conservatives then used to say labour was spending all the money conservatives gained.
The thing with FPTP is that there’s a fine line between a shit result and annihilation.
Waiting it out because it could get better but can’t get much worse is a risky game, because it doesn’t need to get much worse to have catastrophic effects.
Not that I think annihilation is likely, mind. But what’s their game plan?
> Waiting it out because it could get better but can’t get much worse is a risky game, because it doesn’t need to get much worse to have catastrophic effects.
Especially when every single month people come off their fixed term mortgage...there is no getting better in that circumstance.
If he thought he could turn it around, the Tories wouldn't be preparing to poison the well at the budget next week.
Tax cuts and public service cuts are designed to make Labour's life in government impossible. The Tories know full well that these things are economically criminal in the current climate.
Fanfuckingtastic. I always thought the Tories being wiped off the face of the earth was just my wishful thinking but I can see it actually happening. They’ve earned their annihilation and if there’s a god it will happen
Still surprised it's that high. I don’t know how anyone could look at the last 14 years and say "yes please I want more of that." They've really done a number on this country
I'm assuming that 20% have mostly paid off their mortgages and have an income that's not as dependent on the omnishambles going on right now as most people's. That and culture warriors.
On my village Facebook group (tory mp) there's still a contingent of boomers who circle jerk every week about how our lib dem councillors haven't fixed their gp having no appointments and potholes etc. I tried engaging with it but there is no facts that can influence these people
It really infuriates me when I hear that, and I do at least once a week at work. I’m no massive fan of labour, but anything has to be better than this.
Literally saw someone on the Labour sub getting upvoted for saying that Cons are a better party to support than Labour. Social media is fucking stupid.
I thought they were after 97. However I think what the difference between then and now is who will be left in parliament in the aftermath. After 97, there was still enough MPs left (Howard, Clarke, Lilley, Redwood off the top of my head) who had held office in at least the Major government and some in the Thatcher government. They could be considered to be the "adults in the room". I am not sure that the same will be said in the probable aftermath of the next GE.
This will pull the overton window to the left allowing the current labour party to become the centre party, but at slightly left of centre and then another party to become further left and, ideally, become the official opposition at the next election.
It is hopefully a reset to the pre-2010 state of British politics.
As much as I want that to be the case, I'm not holding out hope.
A crushing GE result will give Starmer's Labour a blank cheque to be Blairism 2.0, offering the nice caveats of 'Not being the Tories' but perpetuating the undercurrents of neoliberalism that have governed Britain since Thatcher, and ultimately doing nothing to combat the foundational problems the country faces which New Labour simply papered over the cracks with.
* Voted in on a platform of drastically reducing immigration
* Instead increase immigration to the point we're importing a city the size of Birmingham's population each year
* Collapse in the polls
Tories: Shocked Pikachu face
Levelling up was an even bigger pledge than immigration. It helped Boris do well in non traditional Tory areas.
They’ve completely failed in this regard. Regional inequality has exploded. Butchering HS2 and then announcing it Manchester was absolutely hilarious.
The real Big 21st Century Tory Failure was the economy
Elected in 2010 on a promise to get the economy back on track and fucked it every step of the way.
Before Brexit, before levelling up - the original pitch and the Big Tory Fuck Up has been their bread and butter issue, the economy
I keep getting reddit ads about how they're levelling up Birmingham.
They've cancelled HS2 and let the council go bankrupt. Why are they even bothering? Surely they don't expect anyone to believe this shit?
Green gain Bristol Central (successor to Bristol West), Plaid would gain Carmathen From the conservatives. Labour's other loss would be Sheffield Hallam
When people expect labour to win they feel less insecure voting for a third party. If I knew labout would get a majority I'd almost certainly vote green or other, not because I particularly like the Greens, but because I think it's important to have another voice on the left when you have a left wing government to stop said government monopolising the political landscape.
I would be interested in how the poll was taken. I wish these numbers were totally accurate and could be taken into a GE. Politics moves fast & I'm thinking Sunak is hoping for a major world event.
However don't forget the old joke..
3 voters coming out of a polling station and are asked "who did you vote for?"
I voted Labour
I voted lib dem
That's between me and the ballot box!!
I’d have thought being like a broken Akai S900* and endlessly repeating a few sound bites would win over millions 🤷♂️: “sticking to the plan, captain hindsight, labour has no plan, he doesn’t even know what a woman is, hamas sympathisers, antisemitism in their party, getting on with the job” *apologies to Akai, your old samplers were far better than Sunak, you could turn them off for a start.
Salt the earth. That is all the tories have left to do.
Which if they continue the press and the public need to hold them to account. But it would seem we’ve short memories.
Having typed that.. the tories do have another option… Boris.
Snapshot of _New Ipsos poll for the Evening Standard: Lab 47% Con 20% LD 9% Green 8% Reform 8% Lowest Tory % ever recorded in an Ipsos poll going back to the start of their regular polling in 1978._ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1764585117249327228) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/Samfr/status/1764585117249327228/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Samfr/status/1764585117249327228) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Samfr/status/1764585117249327228) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
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I'm looking forward to the usual speech from a losing party 1 day after the election 'what this country clearly wants, and clearly needs, is a CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT'
[Basically this, but it's Badenoch speaking, more sinister and the words Tory government tacked onto the end. ](https://youtu.be/1CKP-00yaEg?si=SzZ7uIDEy1VgnsL-)
Honestly, would Saxon really be much worse than the current crop of tories
At least if you where 1 of the 10% you would know it was nothing to do with your socio-economic situation just luck of the draw.
True, and in a sick way, he also followed through with his promises
The Tory version of "but we won the argument".
It'll be the deep state's fault. They're gonna go full republican.
While we probably won't see any accusations of "stolen elections" from the Conservatives, they're definitely edging towards the "deep state" rhetoric and embracing the politicking of the Republican Party. Of course, we recently had Truss use the term verbatim while in the States. It worries me. The Tories are rebranding themselves to align with the style of populism found in far-right parties in Poland, Italy, France, etc. The use of "cultural Marxism" (ironic when they accuse everyone else of antisemitism) is simply a rebranding of "cultural Bolshevism", and they're implicitly leaning straight into the "great replacement" conspiracy theories that inspired people like Breivik, Tarrant and Gendron.
The tories may have thought UKIP were a one off - and having the brexit vote would've ended them, but it seems there's long been another right leaning party (with some lefty bits thrown in to get some vote share) waiting, and each time it gets a little more professional and well rounded. We had the BNP, who managed a couple of MEP seats and seemed to get prominence, UKIP in a couple of incarnations, then the Brexit Party, far more focused and slick, and now Reform UK taking that mantle. Folks running these parties aren't going away, there will always be a group to put pressure on the tory right. For a long time the tories had a monopoly on centre right and right voters. I'm convinced if we had a proportional voting system, the splits of the current parties would lead to a 'Pensioners Bloc' having a large number of seats.
'Pensioners Bloc' is the name of the retro Indie disco night I'll be attending in 30 years.
>the splits of the current parties would lead to a 'Pensioners Bloc' having a large number of seats. Might as well formalise the reality we already have at this point
The pensioners Bloc would just be the leftover Tory party, reduced to around 20-30% in a standard election.
And that's why when Labour moves to the centre the Tories are fucked. A left-leaning Labour is minority in the country, a center leaning Labour is not. For all criticism about Labour being Tory-lite, that's how you win elections as Labour. There is nobody to spoiler Labour to the left in the same way the right-wing populists are doing with the Tories.
The Greens were polling as high as Reform a few months ago (and still are in some polls like this one). I'm not sure the left are any more united than the right.
You’d think, but just look at the US. It takes all of about nine seconds for the public to decide the democrats have had enough time to fix the latest republican economic disaster and decide to try that again.
I think the difference is that Americans felt economically better under trump, irregardless of the statistics. The same can’t be said over here
*he said irregardless*
I wonder if irregardless ever becomes a real word - like how 'literally' can officially mean 'figuratively' because it was used so much in that context.
antidisirregardlessism
It’s been in the dictionary for over a century…
Have the right wing in the US lost a significant amount of support? Seems they're in a bit of limbo atm with Trump's legal issues, but a significant portion of the people generally still support Trump/Conservativism?
It's insane. Trump is currently leading. There's some reason to think the polls are missing something (Trump in underperforming in the actual primaries that have happened and Biden is outperforming his margins, and Dems in general have outperformed since Roe went, plus some crosstabs are pretty suspect and I don't buy some things like Trump winning 18-29 or having by far the best margin ever with Americans) but ultimately it's insane it doesn't look like the polling in the UK right now.
If Labour had been in charge since 2020 like the American Democrats, their polling would probably be a lot closer.
MAGA has alienated alot of traditional republicans over there.
The MAGA crowd are definitely a minority in the country - likely about 35% - but they all vote. They've all effectively siloed themselves into a bubble that has a constant flow of media reaffirming their beliefs and feeding them lies about how the country is doing, just to keep them believing in Trump as their saviour. Low turnout helps extremists, quite simply. If they can convince you "both sides are as bad as each other" and disengage you from the process, while they keep feeding their own supporters constant ragebait, they win.
Trump relies on turning out voters that typically turn out at lower rates in national elections in the US. If turnout drops in the presidential election it will hurt him and the GOP noticeably.
I mean they've only won the majority of the vote in a nationwide election twice in the 21st century, and only once in a presidential election they are just constantly in some kind of power anyway.
The difference is that Trump didn't lose that badly in 2020. Trump's 2020 vote total is the second highest in American history behind only Biden in 2020. Yes he lost, but he was still in a much better position than the Tories are in now
He got 46.8% in 2020. 2016 he got 46.1 Trumpism was far from crushed. A lot of Republicans were secretly quite pleased with their quantitative performance
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Even with population growth, getting more votes than he got 4 years before isn't a catastrphic result as was implied
a higher percentage of the population turned out for trump in 2020 than in 2016.
They’re in a culture war really
Honestly given how long pundits said Boris Johnson would be in power after 2019 I wouldn't count my chickens. Fingers crossed Keir Starmer can avoid the litany of scandals that have plagued the Tories.
>It feels like it has reached a point where the general public's opinion is anyone but the Tories now. Indeed, enthusiasm for Starmer remains quite feint yet he's about to storm to victory. However, It was anyone but Corbyn just a few years ago... These are death throes - the electorate are swinging wildly, in reaction to the inexorable fall in living standards, the rise in poverty/inequality/corruption. The swings are probably going to grow ever more violent - Labour are going to be *incredibly* hamstrung and it's highly unlikely they will be able to halt the economic decline, despite best efforts. Simply too much damage has been done over the last 14+ years. So the question is - what comes ***after*** Labour have failed to halt the decline? Very unlikely to be a Tory government. I don't know what it will be...but it will be something fcuking nasty - of that I am confident.
Yup, if we don't get regulation of media & social media. If we don't get some form of PR. 2029 is gonna be a shitshow, that's before climate change disrupts the food supply and makes current migration trends clear for the trivial problem it is.
Exactly. The result could be so emphatic that it guarantees Labour two terms.
I don't think that's possible anymore. The political situation is just way too unstable these days.
Clearly swings are a lot quicker these days, going from a Tory landslide in 2019 to a potentially even bigger Labour one in 2024. Which of course carries the risk that voters may swing away from Labour equally quickly - not necessarily back towards the Tories though.
>It feels like it has reached a point where the general public's opinion is anyone but the Tories now I wouldn't be so sure, they're still at 20% and it wouldn't take much to get back to an electable %. I'm sure this will rise as we approach an election too
It'll be interesting to see what happens as we approach an election. It feels like the Tories have been in full campaigning mode for the past 5 years, so they may not have much space left to get a campaigning bump. Labour on the other hand have basically kept quiet for ages, so do have some scope to change people's opinions when they properly announce their policies.
The consensus has always been thst as the election approaches the tory % will go up. I was totally buying into that line of thinking as well. But the election *is* approaching, and the number keeps going down.
The election isn't really approaching until campaigning officially starts, for all we know we're 9 months away still
> we're 9 months away still There's a joke to be made here about screwing the country
In the actual campaign the big advantage Labour and the Tories have is ground game - they have at least *some* presence virtually everywhere, and this will get picked up in the polling. The Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens will have candidates everywhere, but there will only be a few target seats that they throw everything at. Though outside the campaign itself they are losing support. The best time for Sunak to call an election was in May of last year as that would have been a defeat only as bad as 1997.
The subsequent post suggests a labour majority of 424, with Lib Dems as official opposition on 47 seats and the tories reduced to 25.
INJECT IT INTO MY VIENS
[Just need one more point swing from the Tories to Labour and the Tories would be exclusively a Scottish Party…](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=10&LAB=48&LIB=9&Reform=8&Green=8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=17&SCOTLAB=35&SCOTLIB=7.5&SCOTReform=2&SCOTGreen=1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=33&display=AllChanged®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2019nbbase)
Would be a highly amusing evening.
Presumably Chope will still be one of the 25.
Oh god I hope not
Sir Christopher needs to be on the chope'ing block at the election.
Hahahahahahahahaha.
Indeed. Electoral calculus suggests Labour need a 30.1% victory margin to defeat him.
I popped a rod so fast I went blind for a full minute.
I think this is unlikely to happen but it would be... incredible.
Yeah. I see the Tories winning north of 100 seats in the worst case scenario and labour in the mid 400s.
If that’s your worst case scenario, what’s your actual assumption? Because your worst case scenario for the tories is what I actually assume to happen lol - maybe not mid 400s for Labour, but I see the Tories in the upper level of 100, and Labour above 400 but by like 10, or 20.
I think that is what is most likely to happen. I confused the two. Worst case scenario is like 80 seats for the Tories. No matter what happens I think labour will do better than 1997.
Weird how your worst case scenario is my best case scenario.
Reform and the Greens getting 1% fewer votes than the Lib Dems, but 47/46 fewer seats would be disgustingly undemocratic
Agreed, but better to view it in the lens of being compared to Labour rather than Lib Dems. As Lib Dems would also be under represented with these figures and Labour vastly over represented.
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Also this large swing results in Labour taking lots of seats from third place. Some of these would probably go Lib dem. This had Labour winning Henley and Thame as a three way marginal, when they were a distant third in 2019
There will definitely be seats labour climbs from first to third especially in greater London.
A few in London, mainly from seats that were Change Uk, ( Finchley and Golders green), however most seats will go Liberal Democrat instead of Labour. Finchley and Golders green is the Only seat that I think labour will win straight from third, since in Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster, they would be second under the new boundaries. This is not including Exmouth and Exeter East, Ashfield or Beaconsfield, where Labour can gain from third, but not with the Lib dems Second
I looked at the seats the Conservatives are projected to win and that number has 2 caveats 1) national polling can cause weird regional results, this has the conservatives winning 6 seats in Scotland, which I doubt will happen in a scenario such as this. 2) 2 seats are effected by independents being in second place in 2019, Beaconsfield and Exmouth and exeter east. Both Would probably change hands. Total number of conservative seats is probably closer to 20
Exeter East will probably go to Labour, the indie isn't standing and the Exeter labour lot are campaigning pretty hard there at the moment.
Well that would be farcical. Would the Lib Dems even have enough seats to form a Shadow Cabinet?
We're getting the coalition back together, but with a twist.
David Cameron’s going to be prime minister from the House of Lords?
The Shadow Coalition sounds like something from a badly written fantasy book But then tbf so do most of the recent tory scandals
With these numbers Labour could "split" and be the opposition and 3rd place party. PMQs would be fun....
With those figures they'll delay the election as long as possible.
Just a note that UK wide polls, even those done with 1000+ responses, are typically not very accurate at predicting outcomes in Wales and Scotland. These places need their own large samples. For example. The last Ipsos Scotland-specific poll had the SNP winning 40 seats, here it is 18.
They're reasonably ok in wales (mainly because plaid is a non factor in most constituencies) but bad in Scotland mainly because every non island seat in Scotland is marginal and could be potentially be won or lost by the snp on a relatively small swing.
Anybody know why lib Dems are so much better at converting votes into seats?
They target a smaller amount of seats compared to the big parties. The Tories collapse in southern England is also helping the lib dems win some of the Tory/LD margins despite their vote share not increasing by an insane amount in these seats.
I hope this doesn't come to fruition. As much as I'd rather labour win, they need an opposition to keep them in check!
Lib Dems keeping them in check would be better than Tories.
Mother of god!
You should see what stats for lefties model shows on twitter. There model using this polls shows the tories winning 4 seats if an election was held today. Lol.
I think he genuinely thinks he can turn this around. The bigger the mountain he conquers, the bigger the statues and parades will be in his honour, the more chapters will be devoted to him in the history books. Boris believed it and I think Sunak thinks the same. I don't think the public can even conceptualise how high an opinion of themselves the political class of this country has. Their minds have completely locked out the concept of personal failure. You will never be able to convince them they have made a mistake or are doing something wrong.
I dunno. I think they all knew the inevitable way back when they appointed Truss. I reckon he's been given the task of staying the course until a GE has to be called to give the party time to make plans for the upcoming disintegration. They'll use this to clean house and get the party back to what they think it should be and Sunak will have a master key access to the party in his future corporate endeavours in the US. This sets a future Tory party up for some prime right wing, US corporate deals when attempting to privatise the fuck out of things like the NHS.
> I reckon he's been given the task of staying the course until a GE has to be called to give the party time to make plans for the upcoming disintegration. The problem is that no one actually told Sunak this. He clearly believes he's not a caretaker PM.
I'm sure somebody told him early on "just sit there and for fuck's sake don't touch anything" but while you can make people hear you saying words you can't make them listen to you. Sunak seems to be the only person who thinks there's a chance in hell of him winning, but it's very difficult to determine whether he's just not publicly admitting he's screwed (because who would do that?) or if he actually believes there's a chance. I'm inclined towards the latter, just because he's really bad at politics and I think maintaining a "fake it till you make it" facade is beyond his very limited capabilities.
He needs the John Major mindset, he knew from 1992 that conservatives weren't gonna win again, and so to set the party up for success, he saved a bunch of money for the government, which when labour got into power, the conservatives then used to say labour was spending all the money conservatives gained.
The thing with FPTP is that there’s a fine line between a shit result and annihilation. Waiting it out because it could get better but can’t get much worse is a risky game, because it doesn’t need to get much worse to have catastrophic effects. Not that I think annihilation is likely, mind. But what’s their game plan?
> Waiting it out because it could get better but can’t get much worse is a risky game, because it doesn’t need to get much worse to have catastrophic effects. Especially when every single month people come off their fixed term mortgage...there is no getting better in that circumstance.
If he thought he could turn it around, the Tories wouldn't be preparing to poison the well at the budget next week. Tax cuts and public service cuts are designed to make Labour's life in government impossible. The Tories know full well that these things are economically criminal in the current climate.
Salting the earth of your own country to sabotage your political opponents. It's fucking treasonous.
Fanfuckingtastic. I always thought the Tories being wiped off the face of the earth was just my wishful thinking but I can see it actually happening. They’ve earned their annihilation and if there’s a god it will happen
Still surprised it's that high. I don’t know how anyone could look at the last 14 years and say "yes please I want more of that." They've really done a number on this country
I'm assuming that 20% have mostly paid off their mortgages and have an income that's not as dependent on the omnishambles going on right now as most people's. That and culture warriors.
This is literally me but I wouldn't be caught dead voting tory
On my village Facebook group (tory mp) there's still a contingent of boomers who circle jerk every week about how our lib dem councillors haven't fixed their gp having no appointments and potholes etc. I tried engaging with it but there is no facts that can influence these people
lAbOuR wOuLd dO wOrSe Somehow.
It really infuriates me when I hear that, and I do at least once a week at work. I’m no massive fan of labour, but anything has to be better than this.
Literally saw someone on the Labour sub getting upvoted for saying that Cons are a better party to support than Labour. Social media is fucking stupid.
Boomers
Time will tell, but I think this may be the beginning of the end of the Tory party as we know it.
I wouldn't be so sure. People were saying that about the Tories in 2001.
I thought they were after 97. However I think what the difference between then and now is who will be left in parliament in the aftermath. After 97, there was still enough MPs left (Howard, Clarke, Lilley, Redwood off the top of my head) who had held office in at least the Major government and some in the Thatcher government. They could be considered to be the "adults in the room". I am not sure that the same will be said in the probable aftermath of the next GE.
Exactly!!
They had 165 seats. Thats still recoverable. <50 seats where you end up with the LDs as the main opposition? Thats Tory party collapse territory
*If* that happens. It's a big if. I don't see them getting less than 100 seats.
People were saying this about Labour in 2019...
They were, but a lot has happened to the Tory party since.
Labour majority with a Lib Dem opposition is like a wet dream, I just wish the current Labour Party were further to the left.
This will pull the overton window to the left allowing the current labour party to become the centre party, but at slightly left of centre and then another party to become further left and, ideally, become the official opposition at the next election. It is hopefully a reset to the pre-2010 state of British politics.
Got to say I disagree there. Thatcher described Blair as her greatest achievement for a reason. We've seen this pattern play out before
As much as I want that to be the case, I'm not holding out hope. A crushing GE result will give Starmer's Labour a blank cheque to be Blairism 2.0, offering the nice caveats of 'Not being the Tories' but perpetuating the undercurrents of neoliberalism that have governed Britain since Thatcher, and ultimately doing nothing to combat the foundational problems the country faces which New Labour simply papered over the cracks with.
* Voted in on a platform of drastically reducing immigration * Instead increase immigration to the point we're importing a city the size of Birmingham's population each year * Collapse in the polls Tories: Shocked Pikachu face
Levelling up was an even bigger pledge than immigration. It helped Boris do well in non traditional Tory areas. They’ve completely failed in this regard. Regional inequality has exploded. Butchering HS2 and then announcing it Manchester was absolutely hilarious.
The real Big 21st Century Tory Failure was the economy Elected in 2010 on a promise to get the economy back on track and fucked it every step of the way. Before Brexit, before levelling up - the original pitch and the Big Tory Fuck Up has been their bread and butter issue, the economy
I keep getting reddit ads about how they're levelling up Birmingham. They've cancelled HS2 and let the council go bankrupt. Why are they even bothering? Surely they don't expect anyone to believe this shit?
Tories about to the first party ever to get a negative number of seats
Looking at the MPs that are returned that would mean a gain each for plaid and the greens. I wonder where they would be?
Are greens tipped for Lewes? Edit: Looks like Bristol West is their aim
Think it's the Tories who are tipped to lose mate
The one sure bet right now!
What about suffolk?
Im skeptical that Plaid will pick seats up but the Greens have a decent chance in Bristol in one
Green gain Bristol Central (successor to Bristol West), Plaid would gain Carmathen From the conservatives. Labour's other loss would be Sheffield Hallam
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Only about a third of Reform voters are ex Tory voters.
Any other labour leader would be 28% ahead StArMeR OuT
this MUST be sarcasm surely
Obviously This is uk sub I didn't think I needed to put a blatant /s
as I just replied to someone else, some people on this sub genuinely think like that so maybe the sarcasm tag wouldn't have gone amiss
Nah it's just you mate. "StArMeR OuT" makes it even more obvious they weren't being serious
It’s a common meme
Yeah I'm aware of that, but without the "/s" you can't always know. Some idiots on Reddit genuinely think like the OP.
The alternate capital and lower case letters is basically a /s
I'll readily admit that I completely missed that
If you require the /s the problem is you. It's the equivalent to McBain saying "that's the joke"
Please oh please oh please can we see both Reform and Cons on 14% each.
How are the Greens on 8%!? That's shockingly high.
When people expect labour to win they feel less insecure voting for a third party. If I knew labout would get a majority I'd almost certainly vote green or other, not because I particularly like the Greens, but because I think it's important to have another voice on the left when you have a left wing government to stop said government monopolising the political landscape.
They always poll higher than the result they actually end up with
They've been like that for the last few years.
I would be interested in how the poll was taken. I wish these numbers were totally accurate and could be taken into a GE. Politics moves fast & I'm thinking Sunak is hoping for a major world event. However don't forget the old joke.. 3 voters coming out of a polling station and are asked "who did you vote for?" I voted Labour I voted lib dem That's between me and the ballot box!!
Can you imagine if Boris goes down as the last Tory to ever win an election? Can't say we didn't warn them!
Reform from 14% to 8% from another pollster is wild.
I’d have thought being like a broken Akai S900* and endlessly repeating a few sound bites would win over millions 🤷♂️: “sticking to the plan, captain hindsight, labour has no plan, he doesn’t even know what a woman is, hamas sympathisers, antisemitism in their party, getting on with the job” *apologies to Akai, your old samplers were far better than Sunak, you could turn them off for a start.
Salt the earth. That is all the tories have left to do. Which if they continue the press and the public need to hold them to account. But it would seem we’ve short memories. Having typed that.. the tories do have another option… Boris.
I'm sure these numbers will turn right round just as soon as the Budget is released.
Can’t wait to see Reform and Conservatives swap.
https://youtu.be/NVIbCvfkO3E?si=KLqtFVX5zkrllzY7 can see I might need this a lot as my official theme for election evening. Cue the Freddie Mercury.