Snapshot of _Nigel Farage to stand in General Election for Reform UK_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://news.sky.com/story/election-latest-news-uk-sunak-starmer-tories-labour-live-12593360?postid=7765391#liveblog-body) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://news.sky.com/story/election-latest-news-uk-sunak-starmer-tories-labour-live-12593360?postid=7765391#liveblog-body)
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The sole reason Cameron went ahead with Brexit was to neutralise threat Farage was posing on Conservatives.
What a great and well executed idea that was...
I don't really care, my love for this country is bigger than my detest for the Tories and Farage is far more dangerous for our democracy than Tories are.
Yet over the past decade he had more impact on this country than anyone else outside the parliament.
He doesn't need to his party or himself to be in power to have influence. Look what he did with the Tories.
Because he peddles lies and deliberately misleads people. Just look at how he sells himself as a man of the people when he's the multi-millionaire privately educated son of a stockbroker with supposed links to the Huguenots (so pseudo-aristocratic *and* an immigrant 😉)
The news cycle is way too fast nowadays for his lies to be fact checked in real time and by the time they are revealed as lies people have moved on to the next outrageous thing he's said. He's a populist and will say whatever he thinks will get him some attention which makes him very dangerous to democracy which cannot function if based on lies.
I wish we'd all stop giving him the attention he so desperately craves so he can bugger off back to the us and shit in their bed instead.
The man conned people into biggest self harm the world seen in the modern history. All of this based on lies.
His closest political ally is the guy who didn't accept he lost election and as a result caused an attack on US parliament.
He also either purposely or coincidentally tends to play to the Russia's tune. And so happens do all the likes of him all over Europe (Le Pen, Orban, etc.)
If that's not enough for you to see him as a danger then I don't think I can convince you.
>The man conned people into biggest self harm the world seen in the modern history. All of this based on lies.
Depends what you count as 'modern' (post WW2?) but I can think of many things FAR worse than Brexit could ever be.
[Great Leap Forward - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward)
[Iraq War - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War)
Both of the cases you mention arose in authoritarian states. It's not likely that either of them would have occurred in a democratic state. Brexit, on the other hand, required lying and conning on a large scale in a well-developed democracy. Farage managed that.
Those second two points have absolutely nothing to do with your claim.
>Because easy answers based on scapegoating on an effort to enrich and heighten his own profile rather than a genuine interest in improving the country is not good for anyone.
And what are you basing this on?
>His raison d'etre was getting us out of the EU he achieved that, and it turned out that it wasn't the be all and end all promised
At what point was Farage in charge of Brexit again? I must've missed when he was elected into parliament
>What other institutions that act as protectors of the freedoms and by extension the democracy we enjoy.
So your saying that if he runs on a platform of leaving X, and then people vote for him and leave X, that is against democracy? Gonna have to explain that one for me.
>His association with trump who has tested the strength of institutions with violence before and made veiled threats to do it again is not a good reflection on his views of democracy or the rule of law. (This also reflects on Bojo and the lettuce).
Again, nothing to do with your point.
>As to my first point. He doesn't have any answers he's running cause piers called him out on question time. He's simply saying it's all shit cause of this that and everything else and his only suggestion is to take his ball and go home.
And what are you basing that on?
Nothing. Absolutely nothing. You are assuming
Its like you forgot what point you were making in the first place
Came here to say this. The torys shot our country in the dick to avoid farage. Well motherfuckers, hes back. Pray the history books record what and why the torys have done.
This is pure revisionism. Yes UKIP were eating the Tory’s lunch, but their popularity was swelling. What fucked the country was decades of everyone blaming the EU for all of Britains problems such that there were few things that Remain could point to as EU benefits.
The referendum was going to happen at some point. It had been brewing for a decade at that point. Remain should have walked it.
Yeah, I agree - regardless of the tactical concerns for the Tories that lead to them calling the referendum, the prevailing wisdom that you should only give people a say when you're confident they're going to do what you want is, I think, partly *why* people voted to upset the apple cart.
What fucked the country was the majority of the media enabling tory stupidity in a variety of ways and not pulling them on their bs.
Ftfy.
Yes remain should have walked it in any rational universe
It could have been SO different.
Imagine... No second or third lockdown. No partygate. PM Johnson, after listening to his base moves the country towards a zero net migration model and in May 2024, net migration figures are releasing showing net negative 10,000 migration. Johnson calls an election. I can guarantee that the Conservatives would be doing FAR better than they are doing now if this had happened and Reform probably wouldn't exist / be getting 1-2% at most.
Cameron happened. He figured out that people will vote for you if you say you'll do what they want, even if you never intend to actually follow through with it. Everything wrong with politics right now comes from Cameron. Calling the Brexit referendum without ever intending to follow through, then resigning the second his gig was up meant that we entered Brexit negotiations without any plans or a proper leader. It meant the Tories had to elect a new leader and that leader get through Brexit, the most party-splitting decision in recent political history. That essentially guaranteed all would fail unless they purged the party, so they purged and burned through everyone experienced until we got Boris. The second we voted leave and Cameron stepped down the clownfest was locked in.
Cameron also started the policy of promising to reduce immigration while actually increasing it massively. This has caused massive distrust in politics and will, if not corrected by by Starmer in the first term, lead to increasingly extreme backlash.
The way austerity happened has meant that all the supposedly temporary sacrifices are now permanent. Cutting investment in favour of increasing economically unproductive outflows like pensions, and ultimately being false economies. If we had instead actually bit the bullet and gone hard into fixing the economy rather than trying to do he least electorally damaging approach we'd be far further ahead than we are now.
Cameron's electoral short-termism has broken this country, and he's mostly got away with it.
That really wasn't the sole reason, you'd had a substantial chunk of parliamentary Tories pushing for Brexit for decades, and promises were made internally, Cameron himself came up on the right of the party for a lot of issues, his clever liberal branding didn't make him an EU loving lib dem. Win and he's the referendum champion, lose and there's scope to junk a lot of regulation and move the country rightward, still a loss but not the end of the world for the Tory project by any means
From recall, the Tories are funded to a large extent by legacies and bequests so there is an everlasting supply of cash for anyone who has signing rights to the party chequebook.
This is it. He wants to do to the Tories what Trump has done to the Republicans. If he wins Clayton, he will cross the floor to the Tories and bring all the dirt from the Reclaim Party with him. Reclaim can fold and the Tories will just become the UK version of the GOP, he will have Truss and Laurence Fox, both who are praising the likes of Steve Bannon and Marjorie Taylor Green in the US. Anybody that is not taking him seriously is extremely naive. He really needs to lose in Clacton, but I don’t think that area has the brightest of people and will still believe his lies.
The current rules of the Conservative Party state that to be leader they must be a sitting MP.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01366/
Of course they could change the rules as they see fit but his easiest route to becoming Tory leader is getting elected as an MP and then switching party to being a Tory, then winning the leadership election.
I think the question of who is going to be the next Tory leader is the most interesting in this election.
If you look at predictions: Braverman gone, Mordaunt gone, Badenoch gone, Hunt gone, Patel gone, Cleverly gone
They may end up in a situation where all possible Sunak successors are out of the parliament and they will have to find someone else.
The question is whether it wil lbe someone who will move the party back towards the center or push it even further right.
Either way, interesting times ahead for the Tory party.
Yes, actually, or rather no, but basically yes. The Prime Minister nominates them all (apart from the hereditary peers and the lords spiritual), but by convention, he nominates some chosen by the other parties.
I never thought I'd write these words... but I kinda feel sorry for Richard Tice.
He has spent millions trying to make himself relevant and has been up staged by grifters at every single point. I honestly don't understand what he is getting out of all of this other than ritual humiliation.
There was no reform/Brexit candidate in 2019 with 60% turnout. The constituency voted 70% Leave with 75% turnout in the Brexit referendum.
I think he'll win it.
He’s lost a few times before when he has tried to stand. He may be well known but that doesn’t always translate into enough votes to win under a FPTP system
As much as I dislike Farage, he is significantly better known now than for any of those previous attempts.
Although hopefully there's enough people who would never consider voting for him in Clacton.
Name recognition can be a good thing but also a bad thing. It leads to more people voting for him, but I suspect those are mostly people who would be voting Newkip anyway.
On the other hand it leads to more people voting against him, and potentially voting tactically to keep him out.
Look at the Electoral Calculus website. Labour currently polls 40% there, Conservatives 39% and Reform 13%. Farage running just makes it more likely that Labour will win it.
I hate to ask this, but is there any realistic way that reform end up being the end largest party?
I guess the other option is he gets in with a small number of Reform mps, but he negotiates to merge with the small Tory party in exchange for becoming their leader.
That’s not true - Keir Starmer could reveal himself to be a megapaedo during the leaders debates, and Farage knocks him out to prevent him noncing a young member of the audience.
But I admit that’s not very likely.
Not if Nigel becoming leader and standing causes more Tory voters to switch to Reform. Could cause allot more seats to go Labour. Even safe tory seats.
I wouldn't be so sure, it's Clacton he's standing in. It's a deprived coastal town, overwhelmingly white, working class, strongly anti immigration and massively pro brexit. You couldn't invent a more sympathetic constituency for Farage's politics and with such a weak conservative party I wouldn't be betting against him.
Do have to laugh at people making fun of the failed attempts to gain a seat in a FPTP system, when Farages single issue parties succeeded in their goal of the UK leaving the EU.
Love him or hate him, Farage is an effective campaigner and politician.
Farage seems to think they'll split enough for Reform to replace them altogether.
I'm sceptical, we'll see if he can even win a seat for himself first (eighth time lucky)
Possibly but also possibly not.
There's still a lot of loyal Conservatives who were against Brexit and can't stand Farage. My parents being a couple of them.
That entire announcement was fucking hilarious.
"I had a normal day, I walked the dog, I went down the pub, I ate fish and chips like a normal person. I'm just like you plebs"
Are 7 straight defeats not enough? He must have a public humiliation fetish.
The prick hayes foreigners but has a German wife, went to a private school that charged 30k a year and went straight into work as a city banker. Hes as establishment as rishi sunak
yeah his persona is as fake as Boris being a man of the people.
it's such a shame this grifter still not out of public airwaves, they gave him so much airtime to spout his lies and nonsense it's just a joke.
>The prick hayes foreigners but has a German wife,
Ah! But she is white! He despises only non white people!!
Also...he tried to obtain German citizenship one day after the EU referendum.
>In a worldwide exclusive, the [SKWAWKBOX](https://skwawkbox.org/2019/04/23/farage-applied-for-german-passport-on-day-after-2016-referendum-and-did-not-deny-having-one/) can reveal reports that not only did Nigel Farage apply for a German passport, but he did so on the day after the EU referendum – and is under police investigation for allegedly providing false information.
Please do not underestimate what he is capable of doing - after causing havoc with Brexit, if people like him come into power, they have the ability to wreck whatever is left of the UK.
He might be, or he might just be morally bankrupt enough to use xenophobia as a tool to increase his influence. Personally, I don't care which it is, he's a ghoul either way.
Yeah the ‘x hates foreigners because they want lower immigration’ is something that has been annoying for the last 25 years.
Not a reform voter, but i have never seen any clearethnic or race based assertions made by farage, despite the anti immigration standpoint
> as loads of military-age criminal gangs coming on boats with no checks whatsoever
How dare you talk about our incoming doctors and engineers like that?
> In a 2014 interview on the LBC radio station, Farage said that he would feel "concerned" if a group of Romanian men moved next door to him. When interviewer James O'Brien inquired what would be the difference between Romanian men moving next door and a group of German children, in reference to Farage's German wife and children, Farage replied: "You know the difference."
Think you'd need to do some serious mental gymnastics to construe this as anything other than xenophobia. It is prejudice in the most literal, textbook sense, in that he is pre-judging people of a specific nationality.
He also praised Enoch Powell, which isn't great.
Provided reform don't actually start drawing enough votes to begin winning lots of seats, and I don't think they will at all, then it just hurts the Tories imo. Labour don't need to get all of the votes in each constituency, they just need more than second place.
I think reform could potentially decimate the Tory party lol
Didn't pass a view on that, just making the point that if they decimate the tory vote, labour will win the seats. Reform are just a more hyperbolic Tory party anyway, they're just slightly more to the right. I think there needs to be thought about the difference between wanting the best for the country and simply wanting to exact revenge upon the Tories lol.
To be fair. The tories are the worst of both worlds. The only plusses to a right-wing party would be the ability to somewhat control immigration and be good at law an order. Yet we have 750k immigration and prisoners being let out early. At least reform would have all the shit bits of the tory party, but maybe would manage to keep criminals locked up or implement a mors reasonable immigration system.
I'm not someone who supports the right of politics, but I'd rather have an *actual* right wing option (smaller state etc). I have a very slight libertarian streak in me, so when I hear about smoking bans/prisoners being released early.. I'm wondering what the fucking point in the tories is.
Constituency representation is huge. Having grifters in the seats will make life worse for tens of thousands of people.
It's all funny and good that the Tory party is being screwed, but I'd prefer a competent Tory (there are still a few about) as an opposition MP than whatever dirt reform will put in
From what I remember seeing, they do take some from Labour but it isn’t enough to make a material difference because they take so many more from the Tories.
Likely a bit, one of his aims he set out in his speech was to drive down Labour's share of the vote, whilst acknowledging Labour is going to win anyway.
Aye up lads, he actually stands a good chance of winning this time, look at the voting history:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
As I've said before, the equation for people supporting ukip (as they were then) is inversely proportional to the number of migrants living in their area.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-explains-ukips-success-in-clacton-but-nowhere-else/
Best part of this was when he took a dig at the conservative party for having an unelected leader, whilst he takes over his party last minute with no say from anyone
Utterly utterly shameless. Wherever the profits are highest, he arrives like a moth to a flame. Clearly Trump’s fraud case didn’t go the way Farage wanted.
Declaring his undying love for an American presidential candidate the vast majority of Britons hate and fear, right before returning to stand in a British election.
9D chess
Really wanna know if this is just a narcissistic final attempt for parliament or if he really does believe the Tories are gonna get trounced so bad if he gets a few reform MP's in his influence will be large.
Such a flip-flopper. Between this and his admission that Brexit has been a failure you just never know where he stands on anything other than taking Russian money.
There's one really important part of today's news, more fundamental than him standing for office, that everyone needs to understand & take note. Farage has become leader of Reform. No vote, no membership involvement. He's simply become leader, because he wants to. Reform is not a political party, it is his personal fiefdom & he has no commitment to democratic process, in HIS party nor in the country
Not a good thing at all. The tories should lose, sure. But this person has lied and manipulated the country into so much self inflicted pain already once, he should not be eligible to stand.
The winner from this will be the Liberal Democrats. Reform will take votes from both Labour and the Tories but I can't see Lib Dem voters making the jump.
Maybe...
My theory is that the LibDems are totally focused on presenting themselves as the default choice for disillusioned Tory voters who can't stomach voting for Labour, and in the absence of Reform I think they'd see more of those.
I'm sure that's what all Ed Davey's goofing around has been: just getting his name and the LibDem logo into as much media footage as possible so that people staring blankly at their voting slip and reluctant to put their X on either the Tories or Labour will think "Well, that Ed Davey seems like a likeable chap and I have been hearing a lot about the LibDems recently..."
I can't imagine Reform taking many votes directly from Labour - it's a massive political leap for a traditional Labour voter to move that far right. Similarly, I can't really imagine that many of the former Tory voters who will now vote reform would genuinely have considered a move to the left instead.
Honestly, I think the Conservatives are really the only party that will be significantly hurt by Reform.
Whilst Reform might cost the LibDems some potential votes, on the whole I think that the benefit to them in Reform's weakening of the Tories offsets this. It's far from impossible (though perhaps not likely) that the LibDems will become the official opposition this summer - something they could never have dreamed of before now - and reform take some of the credit for that.
I think if it was a more marginal seat, Farage might have a chance but the majority of the current MP is very hard to overcome. At best, he might siphon a few votes.
Farage stands in Clacton and Tice and a few others, Tories stand down in those in exchange for their top 100 at risk seats where Reform stand down their candidates
It'll be all about a grubby deal this.
Whilst that was the playbook of the 2019 election,
I have a suspicion that the Tories aren't in a mood to conduct such a deal, neither are reform, this is more about putting the boot into them, a scorched earth policy to allow the default right-wing party to be rebuilt anew.
Seems odd that just a few days ago he was adamant that 6 weeks wasn’t enough time and he had a whole spiel about how he felt that the US Election was far more important to the UK than our own one.
Maybe Donald is slowing his push? Or maybe their Russian paymasters are switching things up.
Either way they will be lucky to get one seat but will take some Tory votes in the process so win/win.
Farage has no more interest in Clacton than Galloway has about Rochdale, to be fair i'd be surprised if he could find Clacton on a map or even spell it properly. If the people vote for him expecting 'reform' then i despair.
The new series of The Nigel Farage Show is here! And, it’s gonna be as shit as 2016, expect Trump in a few weeks….
The bloke is shameless. It’ll be all about him now.
The only plus side, is hopefully he will take votes off the tories 😂
I don't live in Clacton. But if I did I might, despite being a tribal Labour voter, think about a tactical Tory vote. Because once Farage demonstrates that he a narcissistic, dishonest, racist, pound shop fascist, vulgar little shit.
Considering the Tories are already Reform the only point I can see is to make it official with Farage as leader. I suppose Farage could be that simple.
This is where Douglas Carswell switched from Tory to UKIP, won a by election and held the seat in the 2015 general election.
If he can split the Tory and Labour vote he might come through the middle, but it's unlikely.
Bit of an odd seat, in my view if I’m honest - Clacton is sitting on a just short of 25k majority and people don’t often vote ‘off script’ in GE’s. I think he’d have been better off in his old haunt of South Thanet, where there isn’t an incumbent standing and the majority is much much lower.
Carswell was only UKIP MP through defection and pulling off a reelection campaign in a by-election when its not unusual to see big swings into populism.
Farage also lacks the relevance he had in the pre-Brexit political make up in the country. What’s he gonna pledge? Physical towing the country off the continental shelf?
Labour will win Thanet. He picked that seat in 2015 because it was a three way marginal where he could get in on a lower percentage.
In Clacton, it's incredibly pro Brexit and they've got data and volunteers from the ukip days. Demographically it's the strongest seat in the country for Reform. A poll from January had Farage winning the seat by 10%.
There are no safe seats for the conservatives. They are going to be completely wiped out. A 73% vote in 2019 does in no way guarantee a victory in 2024. Those votes were for Brexit, as evidenced by it being the highest Leave constituency in the country. They will 100% vote for Farage.
Snapshot of _Nigel Farage to stand in General Election for Reform UK_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://news.sky.com/story/election-latest-news-uk-sunak-starmer-tories-labour-live-12593360?postid=7765391#liveblog-body) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://news.sky.com/story/election-latest-news-uk-sunak-starmer-tories-labour-live-12593360?postid=7765391#liveblog-body) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The sole reason Cameron went ahead with Brexit was to neutralise threat Farage was posing on Conservatives. What a great and well executed idea that was...
Say what you want about Farage but he makes the Tories shit the bed
The problem with this phasing is that the UK is the bed.
Lmao.
I don't really care, my love for this country is bigger than my detest for the Tories and Farage is far more dangerous for our democracy than Tories are.
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Yet over the past decade he had more impact on this country than anyone else outside the parliament. He doesn't need to his party or himself to be in power to have influence. Look what he did with the Tories.
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Because he peddles lies and deliberately misleads people. Just look at how he sells himself as a man of the people when he's the multi-millionaire privately educated son of a stockbroker with supposed links to the Huguenots (so pseudo-aristocratic *and* an immigrant 😉) The news cycle is way too fast nowadays for his lies to be fact checked in real time and by the time they are revealed as lies people have moved on to the next outrageous thing he's said. He's a populist and will say whatever he thinks will get him some attention which makes him very dangerous to democracy which cannot function if based on lies. I wish we'd all stop giving him the attention he so desperately craves so he can bugger off back to the us and shit in their bed instead.
How is Farage dangerous for democracy?
The man conned people into biggest self harm the world seen in the modern history. All of this based on lies. His closest political ally is the guy who didn't accept he lost election and as a result caused an attack on US parliament. He also either purposely or coincidentally tends to play to the Russia's tune. And so happens do all the likes of him all over Europe (Le Pen, Orban, etc.) If that's not enough for you to see him as a danger then I don't think I can convince you.
>The man conned people into biggest self harm the world seen in the modern history. All of this based on lies. Depends what you count as 'modern' (post WW2?) but I can think of many things FAR worse than Brexit could ever be. [Great Leap Forward - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward) [Iraq War - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War)
Both of the cases you mention arose in authoritarian states. It's not likely that either of them would have occurred in a democratic state. Brexit, on the other hand, required lying and conning on a large scale in a well-developed democracy. Farage managed that.
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We must remove the presence of the dissidents to ensure a healthy democracy comrade!
I have no problem with dissidents. I do have a problem with liars and con-men.
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Those second two points have absolutely nothing to do with your claim. >Because easy answers based on scapegoating on an effort to enrich and heighten his own profile rather than a genuine interest in improving the country is not good for anyone. And what are you basing this on?
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>His raison d'etre was getting us out of the EU he achieved that, and it turned out that it wasn't the be all and end all promised At what point was Farage in charge of Brexit again? I must've missed when he was elected into parliament >What other institutions that act as protectors of the freedoms and by extension the democracy we enjoy. So your saying that if he runs on a platform of leaving X, and then people vote for him and leave X, that is against democracy? Gonna have to explain that one for me. >His association with trump who has tested the strength of institutions with violence before and made veiled threats to do it again is not a good reflection on his views of democracy or the rule of law. (This also reflects on Bojo and the lettuce). Again, nothing to do with your point. >As to my first point. He doesn't have any answers he's running cause piers called him out on question time. He's simply saying it's all shit cause of this that and everything else and his only suggestion is to take his ball and go home. And what are you basing that on? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. You are assuming Its like you forgot what point you were making in the first place
Well said. Nail on head.
Cameron assumed Remain would win, what we are seeing play out now was baked in the moment Leave won.
not quite, this is a result of rishi naively assuming that avoiding recession through massive immigration was a good idea. it wasnt
Surely May, Johnson and Truss should take some blame for being unable to sort anything out.
Came here to say this. The torys shot our country in the dick to avoid farage. Well motherfuckers, hes back. Pray the history books record what and why the torys have done.
This is pure revisionism. Yes UKIP were eating the Tory’s lunch, but their popularity was swelling. What fucked the country was decades of everyone blaming the EU for all of Britains problems such that there were few things that Remain could point to as EU benefits. The referendum was going to happen at some point. It had been brewing for a decade at that point. Remain should have walked it.
Yeah, I agree - regardless of the tactical concerns for the Tories that lead to them calling the referendum, the prevailing wisdom that you should only give people a say when you're confident they're going to do what you want is, I think, partly *why* people voted to upset the apple cart.
I guess there's a chance that Labour could have beaten the Tories with a bit more luck or David.
Maybe with David. The way Ed won the vote via the unions soured a lot of voters.
What fucked the country was the majority of the media enabling tory stupidity in a variety of ways and not pulling them on their bs. Ftfy. Yes remain should have walked it in any rational universe
It could have been SO different. Imagine... No second or third lockdown. No partygate. PM Johnson, after listening to his base moves the country towards a zero net migration model and in May 2024, net migration figures are releasing showing net negative 10,000 migration. Johnson calls an election. I can guarantee that the Conservatives would be doing FAR better than they are doing now if this had happened and Reform probably wouldn't exist / be getting 1-2% at most.
What has happened to create this timeline?
Cameron happened. He figured out that people will vote for you if you say you'll do what they want, even if you never intend to actually follow through with it. Everything wrong with politics right now comes from Cameron. Calling the Brexit referendum without ever intending to follow through, then resigning the second his gig was up meant that we entered Brexit negotiations without any plans or a proper leader. It meant the Tories had to elect a new leader and that leader get through Brexit, the most party-splitting decision in recent political history. That essentially guaranteed all would fail unless they purged the party, so they purged and burned through everyone experienced until we got Boris. The second we voted leave and Cameron stepped down the clownfest was locked in. Cameron also started the policy of promising to reduce immigration while actually increasing it massively. This has caused massive distrust in politics and will, if not corrected by by Starmer in the first term, lead to increasingly extreme backlash. The way austerity happened has meant that all the supposedly temporary sacrifices are now permanent. Cutting investment in favour of increasing economically unproductive outflows like pensions, and ultimately being false economies. If we had instead actually bit the bullet and gone hard into fixing the economy rather than trying to do he least electorally damaging approach we'd be far further ahead than we are now. Cameron's electoral short-termism has broken this country, and he's mostly got away with it.
Competent Boris Premiership
Voting to avoid chaos with Ed Miliband
That really wasn't the sole reason, you'd had a substantial chunk of parliamentary Tories pushing for Brexit for decades, and promises were made internally, Cameron himself came up on the right of the party for a lot of issues, his clever liberal branding didn't make him an EU loving lib dem. Win and he's the referendum champion, lose and there's scope to junk a lot of regulation and move the country rightward, still a loss but not the end of the world for the Tory project by any means
Farage realised he needs to be an MP to run for Tory leader after the election.
You might be on to something, you don’t have to be *elected* a Tory, he could cross the floor.
At the current polling rate, he wouldn't even need to get up, just shuffle up the bench a little bit.
Politely ask the four remaining Tories to move down the row.
That’s brilliant
Or he'll get all the conservative MPs to defect to him
I somehow think he will want the brand and the party machine. But yeah it could be a leveraged buyout.
From recall, the Tories are funded to a large extent by legacies and bequests so there is an everlasting supply of cash for anyone who has signing rights to the party chequebook.
Stick with the plan 😆
This is it. He wants to do to the Tories what Trump has done to the Republicans. If he wins Clayton, he will cross the floor to the Tories and bring all the dirt from the Reclaim Party with him. Reclaim can fold and the Tories will just become the UK version of the GOP, he will have Truss and Laurence Fox, both who are praising the likes of Steve Bannon and Marjorie Taylor Green in the US. Anybody that is not taking him seriously is extremely naive. He really needs to lose in Clacton, but I don’t think that area has the brightest of people and will still believe his lies.
Couldn't he get in as a lord? When Braverman becomes leader of the opposition by the end of the year, she could make him a Lord.
The current rules of the Conservative Party state that to be leader they must be a sitting MP. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01366/ Of course they could change the rules as they see fit but his easiest route to becoming Tory leader is getting elected as an MP and then switching party to being a Tory, then winning the leadership election.
According to most predictions I've seen Braverman is losing her seat so she may not be the next Tory leader.
Oh please let this be true. Good riddance to her.
I think the question of who is going to be the next Tory leader is the most interesting in this election. If you look at predictions: Braverman gone, Mordaunt gone, Badenoch gone, Hunt gone, Patel gone, Cleverly gone They may end up in a situation where all possible Sunak successors are out of the parliament and they will have to find someone else. The question is whether it wil lbe someone who will move the party back towards the center or push it even further right. Either way, interesting times ahead for the Tory party.
The opposition can create lords as well?
Yes, actually, or rather no, but basically yes. The Prime Minister nominates them all (apart from the hereditary peers and the lords spiritual), but by convention, he nominates some chosen by the other parties.
Lloyd-George operated a far simpler system; £50,000.
Haven't the Tories nominated enough lords with all their incoming + outgoing honours lists?
Never saw it coming, I'm shocked. He might actually win that seat. And if he puts his face around then the Tories could be in a bit more trouble.
Finally, they might book him to appear on Question Time...
That shrinking violet? Can't see him fancying the limelight.
Nah - the BBC wouldn’t think he was relev…. Oh wait
I for one welcome our new Reform overlords on the BBC
I never thought I'd write these words... but I kinda feel sorry for Richard Tice. He has spent millions trying to make himself relevant and has been up staged by grifters at every single point. I honestly don't understand what he is getting out of all of this other than ritual humiliation.
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Yes I like Jeremy Corbyn but he's a crap speaker, not a very good front man.
Weird but Tice sounds like a sensible politician. Farage sounds like your run of the mill right wing populist
Tice the climate change denier is sensible?
Sounds was the operative word
Tice is a smooth talker with a fracking / oil agenda
Richard Tice is the guy that founded Leave.eu. He and Farage are not decent or sensible.
Someone asked him why this time is different when he’s lost 7 times and he was like ‘only 1 of them counted lol’
“Only one of them counted, and they cheated that time I tells ya!”
He'll win Claction. One less seat for the Tories. Very inconsequential when it comes down to it.
Only seat UKIP won at a general election but super safe Conservative (72%) with incumbent standing again. Not a guarantee he wins it.
And UKIP only won it with an incumbent tory defector
It is worth noting that he won the seat twice on a UKIP platform.
He also quite publicly disliked Farage
Not when he won. That happened pretty much immediately before he stood down as an MP. It was mere months.
There was no reform/Brexit candidate in 2019 with 60% turnout. The constituency voted 70% Leave with 75% turnout in the Brexit referendum. I think he'll win it.
Farage has more name recognition and advantages than any MP in the country
He’s lost a few times before when he has tried to stand. He may be well known but that doesn’t always translate into enough votes to win under a FPTP system
As much as I dislike Farage, he is significantly better known now than for any of those previous attempts. Although hopefully there's enough people who would never consider voting for him in Clacton.
Yep, 20% support across the country represents an absolutely huge number of total supporters, but 20% support in a single riding is a guaranteed loss
7 times in the last 30 years.
He’s also lost every time he’s tried to stand for a U.K. MP role.
Name recognition can be a good thing but also a bad thing. It leads to more people voting for him, but I suspect those are mostly people who would be voting Newkip anyway. On the other hand it leads to more people voting against him, and potentially voting tactically to keep him out.
Look at the Electoral Calculus website. Labour currently polls 40% there, Conservatives 39% and Reform 13%. Farage running just makes it more likely that Labour will win it.
National swing isn’t gonna be relevant in a seat like this. He’s got a decent chance if there’s enough directionless ant-Tory sentiment.
he will win it, the tories only won it because brexit party stood aside
I bet Sunak is furious. Right before tomorrow’s debates too.
There's always a positive.
Having Farage in the house of commons for 5 years could be reasonably consequential - unless he has the same attendance record as when he was an MEP
I hate to ask this, but is there any realistic way that reform end up being the end largest party? I guess the other option is he gets in with a small number of Reform mps, but he negotiates to merge with the small Tory party in exchange for becoming their leader.
Reform? The largest party? In THIS election? There’s no realistic way that happens - the only way it even could feasibly occur is by rigging it.
That’s not true - Keir Starmer could reveal himself to be a megapaedo during the leaders debates, and Farage knocks him out to prevent him noncing a young member of the audience. But I admit that’s not very likely.
Sorry, my mistake... I meant to say largest opposition party!
Not if Nigel becoming leader and standing causes more Tory voters to switch to Reform. Could cause allot more seats to go Labour. Even safe tory seats.
I suspect both parties don't want him anywhere near parliament, the debates would suddenly become... Interesting
I think they imagine more people will shift to Reform now that Farage’s face is on it. He’s building up a bit of a cult a la Trump
And there goes the final nail in the Tory coffin.
i blame that woman on question time that scorched him
I was just thinking this- her and piers Morgan This is how Trump got started let’s not forget
It’s terrible how she besmirched his name as a seven time failure when he is going to meet his destiny as an eight time failure.
I wouldn't be so sure, it's Clacton he's standing in. It's a deprived coastal town, overwhelmingly white, working class, strongly anti immigration and massively pro brexit. You couldn't invent a more sympathetic constituency for Farage's politics and with such a weak conservative party I wouldn't be betting against him.
Do have to laugh at people making fun of the failed attempts to gain a seat in a FPTP system, when Farages single issue parties succeeded in their goal of the UK leaving the EU. Love him or hate him, Farage is an effective campaigner and politician.
I don't know, your guys have been in charge for so long, I think people are sick of them.
So err the con vote will get split even more?
most likely yes
Farage seems to think they'll split enough for Reform to replace them altogether. I'm sceptical, we'll see if he can even win a seat for himself first (eighth time lucky)
>Farage seems to think they'll split enough for Reform to replace them altogether. I mean long term maybe but not in this election.
Yes and we will likely see some Reform MP's as quite a lot of Labour's base like voting for Reform.
Possibly but also possibly not. There's still a lot of loyal Conservatives who were against Brexit and can't stand Farage. My parents being a couple of them.
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He was once an (apparently bad) commodities trader. So no.
That entire announcement was fucking hilarious. "I had a normal day, I walked the dog, I went down the pub, I ate fish and chips like a normal person. I'm just like you plebs" Are 7 straight defeats not enough? He must have a public humiliation fetish. The prick hayes foreigners but has a German wife, went to a private school that charged 30k a year and went straight into work as a city banker. Hes as establishment as rishi sunak
yeah his persona is as fake as Boris being a man of the people. it's such a shame this grifter still not out of public airwaves, they gave him so much airtime to spout his lies and nonsense it's just a joke.
>The prick hayes foreigners but has a German wife, Ah! But she is white! He despises only non white people!! Also...he tried to obtain German citizenship one day after the EU referendum. >In a worldwide exclusive, the [SKWAWKBOX](https://skwawkbox.org/2019/04/23/farage-applied-for-german-passport-on-day-after-2016-referendum-and-did-not-deny-having-one/) can reveal reports that not only did Nigel Farage apply for a German passport, but he did so on the day after the EU referendum – and is under police investigation for allegedly providing false information. Please do not underestimate what he is capable of doing - after causing havoc with Brexit, if people like him come into power, they have the ability to wreck whatever is left of the UK.
He doesn’t hate foreigners, he just wants to lower immigration which is perfectly fair considering how high it is.
He can both want to reduce immigration, and that be coming from a place of him being very racist, which he is.
He might be, or he might just be morally bankrupt enough to use xenophobia as a tool to increase his influence. Personally, I don't care which it is, he's a ghoul either way.
Yeah the ‘x hates foreigners because they want lower immigration’ is something that has been annoying for the last 25 years. Not a reform voter, but i have never seen any clearethnic or race based assertions made by farage, despite the anti immigration standpoint
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> as loads of military-age criminal gangs coming on boats with no checks whatsoever How dare you talk about our incoming doctors and engineers like that?
Never? Are you forgetting his comments about Romanians and Poles?
> In a 2014 interview on the LBC radio station, Farage said that he would feel "concerned" if a group of Romanian men moved next door to him. When interviewer James O'Brien inquired what would be the difference between Romanian men moving next door and a group of German children, in reference to Farage's German wife and children, Farage replied: "You know the difference." Think you'd need to do some serious mental gymnastics to construe this as anything other than xenophobia. It is prejudice in the most literal, textbook sense, in that he is pre-judging people of a specific nationality. He also praised Enoch Powell, which isn't great.
[Yea, right.](https://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/576673f01500002b0073b557.jpeg)
Honestly can see him as the leader of one opposition… real monkey paw moment
When he inevitably brings up Starmers flip flops like he's done before I hope people remember this.
If he's allowed to change his mind about standing then can the voters be allowed to change their mind on Brexit?
Is it possible that REF overtakes CON? Could that happen
He's grifting harder than ever. He knows the media love him and if he's an actual candidate, they have more reason to give him airtime.
Does Farage standing hurt Labour too? He is appealing to Labour voters as well and he will bring in Brexit talk again.
I think some stats show that for every 5 labour votes reform takes they take 40 from Tories or similar so like it's alot more on sided
OK cool. Still hoping for a Labour landslide.
Provided reform don't actually start drawing enough votes to begin winning lots of seats, and I don't think they will at all, then it just hurts the Tories imo. Labour don't need to get all of the votes in each constituency, they just need more than second place. I think reform could potentially decimate the Tory party lol
Why don't we want Reform to win seats? It might be nice to consign the tories to the dustbin of History.
Didn't pass a view on that, just making the point that if they decimate the tory vote, labour will win the seats. Reform are just a more hyperbolic Tory party anyway, they're just slightly more to the right. I think there needs to be thought about the difference between wanting the best for the country and simply wanting to exact revenge upon the Tories lol.
To be fair. The tories are the worst of both worlds. The only plusses to a right-wing party would be the ability to somewhat control immigration and be good at law an order. Yet we have 750k immigration and prisoners being let out early. At least reform would have all the shit bits of the tory party, but maybe would manage to keep criminals locked up or implement a mors reasonable immigration system. I'm not someone who supports the right of politics, but I'd rather have an *actual* right wing option (smaller state etc). I have a very slight libertarian streak in me, so when I hear about smoking bans/prisoners being released early.. I'm wondering what the fucking point in the tories is.
Constituency representation is huge. Having grifters in the seats will make life worse for tens of thousands of people. It's all funny and good that the Tory party is being screwed, but I'd prefer a competent Tory (there are still a few about) as an opposition MP than whatever dirt reform will put in
Cons will be replaced by something even more insidious.
As long as he appeals to Tory voters more than Labour (which he definitely does) that’s all that matters surely
From what I remember seeing, they do take some from Labour but it isn’t enough to make a material difference because they take so many more from the Tories.
Likely a bit, one of his aims he set out in his speech was to drive down Labour's share of the vote, whilst acknowledging Labour is going to win anyway.
hes about as appealing as anal bleeding
Aye up lads, he actually stands a good chance of winning this time, look at the voting history: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency) As I've said before, the equation for people supporting ukip (as they were then) is inversely proportional to the number of migrants living in their area. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-explains-ukips-success-in-clacton-but-nowhere-else/
Well that will liven up what was promising to be an exceptionally dull election.
He clearly thought "maybe campaigning for a convicted felon in a foreign election isn't the best look" and bravely ran away.
Best part of this was when he took a dig at the conservative party for having an unelected leader, whilst he takes over his party last minute with no say from anyone
Utterly utterly shameless. Wherever the profits are highest, he arrives like a moth to a flame. Clearly Trump’s fraud case didn’t go the way Farage wanted.
Declaring his undying love for an American presidential candidate the vast majority of Britons hate and fear, right before returning to stand in a British election. 9D chess
Just a little bit of insight into the type of politics this bunch of muppets want to bring to the UK.
This entire press conference gives off very Alan Partridge vibes
Really wanna know if this is just a narcissistic final attempt for parliament or if he really does believe the Tories are gonna get trounced so bad if he gets a few reform MP's in his influence will be large.
Such a flip-flopper. Between this and his admission that Brexit has been a failure you just never know where he stands on anything other than taking Russian money.
He had said supporting the US election was more important to him, now Trump is a felon (on 34 felony counts) Nigel flip flops.
It’s surprising to me that people think the conviction will make much of a difference out there.
Oh good we can see him get beat by a dolphin again
Clacton/jaywick?!! Hahahaha he'll fit in
I wonder how many disaffected tories will turn to the right for reform?
It just keeps getting worse for the tories doesn't it
There's one really important part of today's news, more fundamental than him standing for office, that everyone needs to understand & take note. Farage has become leader of Reform. No vote, no membership involvement. He's simply become leader, because he wants to. Reform is not a political party, it is his personal fiefdom & he has no commitment to democratic process, in HIS party nor in the country
What sort of place is Clacton that they willingly elect Reform with a plurality (if not majority) of voters???
Clacton voted for UKIP in 2015. It’s the only seat UKIP ever won. 70% of Clacton voted leave. If anywhere can elect Reform, it will be Clacton.
Farage looks like he stinks of cigs and ale.
Well nothing will make me happier than if he fails (again) to get elected. Happier even than a Labour landslide.
Not a good thing at all. The tories should lose, sure. But this person has lied and manipulated the country into so much self inflicted pain already once, he should not be eligible to stand.
Labour landslide... But at what cost? Tories going further psychotic?
The winner from this will be the Liberal Democrats. Reform will take votes from both Labour and the Tories but I can't see Lib Dem voters making the jump.
Maybe... My theory is that the LibDems are totally focused on presenting themselves as the default choice for disillusioned Tory voters who can't stomach voting for Labour, and in the absence of Reform I think they'd see more of those. I'm sure that's what all Ed Davey's goofing around has been: just getting his name and the LibDem logo into as much media footage as possible so that people staring blankly at their voting slip and reluctant to put their X on either the Tories or Labour will think "Well, that Ed Davey seems like a likeable chap and I have been hearing a lot about the LibDems recently..." I can't imagine Reform taking many votes directly from Labour - it's a massive political leap for a traditional Labour voter to move that far right. Similarly, I can't really imagine that many of the former Tory voters who will now vote reform would genuinely have considered a move to the left instead. Honestly, I think the Conservatives are really the only party that will be significantly hurt by Reform. Whilst Reform might cost the LibDems some potential votes, on the whole I think that the benefit to them in Reform's weakening of the Tories offsets this. It's far from impossible (though perhaps not likely) that the LibDems will become the official opposition this summer - something they could never have dreamed of before now - and reform take some of the credit for that.
Why? Can't imagine they're targeting Clacton are they? Or do you think Farage running will make people in other seats more interested
I guess campaigning for a convicted felon in USA wasn't his style
I'd say that's exactly his style.
Is that right? The limit is £200 for free shop-lifting now? Only I'll be passing through at the weekend, seeing the brother.
I think if it was a more marginal seat, Farage might have a chance but the majority of the current MP is very hard to overcome. At best, he might siphon a few votes.
Farage stands in Clacton and Tice and a few others, Tories stand down in those in exchange for their top 100 at risk seats where Reform stand down their candidates It'll be all about a grubby deal this.
Whilst that was the playbook of the 2019 election, I have a suspicion that the Tories aren't in a mood to conduct such a deal, neither are reform, this is more about putting the boot into them, a scorched earth policy to allow the default right-wing party to be rebuilt anew.
Why on earth people flock to this tedious charlatan is beyond me. I suppose no one ever went bust by shouting about foreigners.
Does this mean that the gobshite wont be allowed to platform himself on GB News during the election cycle anymore? If so, I'm all for it.
Seems odd that just a few days ago he was adamant that 6 weeks wasn’t enough time and he had a whole spiel about how he felt that the US Election was far more important to the UK than our own one. Maybe Donald is slowing his push? Or maybe their Russian paymasters are switching things up. Either way they will be lucky to get one seat but will take some Tory votes in the process so win/win.
Farage has no more interest in Clacton than Galloway has about Rochdale, to be fair i'd be surprised if he could find Clacton on a map or even spell it properly. If the people vote for him expecting 'reform' then i despair.
They will get a MP that never visits and doesn't care about them. Clacton continues it's decline as a ghost town theme park. Will the people notice?
To be fair, farage wouldn't b out of place as the creepy owner of a haunted theme park
That's a nice triple lock on Reform not getting my vote.
The new series of The Nigel Farage Show is here! And, it’s gonna be as shit as 2016, expect Trump in a few weeks…. The bloke is shameless. It’ll be all about him now. The only plus side, is hopefully he will take votes off the tories 😂
I don't live in Clacton. But if I did I might, despite being a tribal Labour voter, think about a tactical Tory vote. Because once Farage demonstrates that he a narcissistic, dishonest, racist, pound shop fascist, vulgar little shit.
i'm so so lost with this. is this a vote splitting effort?
The beginning of his attempt to merge the Tories and Reform.
Considering the Tories are already Reform the only point I can see is to make it official with Farage as leader. I suppose Farage could be that simple.
This is where Douglas Carswell switched from Tory to UKIP, won a by election and held the seat in the 2015 general election. If he can split the Tory and Labour vote he might come through the middle, but it's unlikely.
He might actually have a chance this time
Bit of an odd seat, in my view if I’m honest - Clacton is sitting on a just short of 25k majority and people don’t often vote ‘off script’ in GE’s. I think he’d have been better off in his old haunt of South Thanet, where there isn’t an incumbent standing and the majority is much much lower. Carswell was only UKIP MP through defection and pulling off a reelection campaign in a by-election when its not unusual to see big swings into populism. Farage also lacks the relevance he had in the pre-Brexit political make up in the country. What’s he gonna pledge? Physical towing the country off the continental shelf?
Labour will win Thanet. He picked that seat in 2015 because it was a three way marginal where he could get in on a lower percentage. In Clacton, it's incredibly pro Brexit and they've got data and volunteers from the ukip days. Demographically it's the strongest seat in the country for Reform. A poll from January had Farage winning the seat by 10%.
There are no safe seats for the conservatives. They are going to be completely wiped out. A 73% vote in 2019 does in no way guarantee a victory in 2024. Those votes were for Brexit, as evidenced by it being the highest Leave constituency in the country. They will 100% vote for Farage.
Looks like an easy seat. There's no historical appetite for Labour, they loved ukip, and the tories are toast
Please someone just shut him up, I'm loosing the will to live watching this live.
So Tice spent millions of his own money just to be brushed to the side? Does he have a humiliation kink or is he just a loser?