Snapshot of _Sunak to lose seat in Tory wipeout, major poll predicts | Exclusive survey for The Telegraph also shows party on track to slump to 53 seats with around three-quarters of the Cabinet voted out_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-to-lose-seat-tory-wipeout-major-poll-predicts/) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-to-lose-seat-tory-wipeout-major-poll-predicts/)
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I cannot fucking believe this.
My marginal seat has been Tory since 2010. I thought finally, finally I might have an MP that's more representative of my political leanings. Then the boundary changes happened, they took my town out of the marginal constituency and lumped it in with the fucking iron clad safest Tory seat in existence next door.
He may very well be literally one of the last Tories standing, but looks like I'll be subjected to local Tory rule for the foreseeable...
Don't lose hope! My seat was the safest of safe Tory seats but went Lib Dem at a by election and now is set to stay yellow. You never know!
Unless you're in East Grinstead and Uckfield. They are saddled with both a daft name and a seemingly unshakeable Tory deathgrip.
You mean Kristi Noem, the *governor* of South Dakota?
That still has to be one of the worst self-inflicted political injuries in recent American history. Noem was always an awful person (She's banned from something like 20% of her own state thanks to racist remarks she's made against Native Americans) but I have no idea why she thought bragging about killing a puppy and a goat for being a fucking goat would help her.
Just try and bribe him/her and record it. It seems the tories are incapable of resisting and unable to detect a dodgy situation, you could be holding your phone up and visibly recording the sting and theyd plough on with it
Nuclear MRP poll.
Conservative Party HQ is probably screaming about now, as doubt anyone expected any MRP poll to be showing so few seats.
Labour Majority of 382 - LOL. They could split off the Coop party and become the opposition with ease.
>Labour Majority of 382
Read this as 382 Labour seats at first, but no, just their *majority*. The numbers coming out now are frankly difficult to comprehend
I literally saw a video of a poor couple who "really hope the tories get back in because they helped provide food banks so we could eat"
It's startling that they dont realize the tories are the reason they need a food bank
Yeah. That's people like my old uncle. Lifelong Tory voter but not at all engaged with day to day politics.
He'd vote for anyone with the rosette on.
Even he saw what a bad idea Brexit was yet still voted for them again because "that's who I vote for"
I guess that covers a fair amount of the base
* "There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing
Is it raining, is it snowing
Is a hurricane a–blowing
Not a speck of light is showing
So the danger must be growing
Are the fires of Hell a–glowing
Is the grisly reaper mowing" *
These polls vary wildly. Sky have just released one where Labour have a 200 majority. It's clear they're going to win comfortably but there's no consensus on how much.
Yep - largely because of FPTP.
Smaller parties hate it because they can win a significant vote share, win next to no MPs, large parties love it because it locks the smaller parties out. However, in this case, the Tories are so far underwater now, at that magical cross-over point where half a percentage point shift in the polls (i.e. a shift within the margin of error) is the difference between 50 seats in the commons and 150.
> They could split off the Coop party and become the opposition with ease.
Oh wow, I hadn't considered this. Technically it's riskier since you can't easily discipline, but this just *breaks* the commons.
They're going to be punished for having a stonking majority no matter what next election, I'm fairly sure.
My assumption is every other party is going to pivot to electoral reform front and centre, with the aim of making labour do a cameron and blink.
Given the current political climate, there is every possibility this labour government ends in a war cabinet. (Assuming you would even bother with a majority that large.)
The alternative is this just shifts British politics as the collapse of the liberal party did following the 1918 elections.
To be fair the combined Tory and Reform vote would put them not very far behind Labour. Achieving a large shift from Reform to Tory won't win them the election but it would save them from the impending wholesale slaughter they're staring in the face.
At this point the Tories know they're losing. What they're hoping to do is minimise the damage so they have as much as possible to rebuild from for 2029 or 2034.
Can you educate me what splitting off the coop party means? How many lab MPs are COOP. I've never really understood the distinction and sort of assumed labour and coop were one and the same.
It’s a bit like labour’s relationship with trade unions only a lot closer, they support the Labour Party financially and with grass root campaigning but the MPs themselves are beholden to the party, it’s just that the party is influenced by the coop
There’s a list of their MPs here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Labour_Co-operative_MPs#A
A fair few names you’d recognise in there, like Jon Ashworth, Anneliese Dodds, Ed Balls, Luciana Berger etc.
The interesting thing is that they don’t have an actual party leader.
>Penny Mordaunt, the Commons Leader, Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, and Robert Jenrick, the former migration minister, all lose their seats on this prediction.
>So too do Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, and James Cleverly, the Home Secretary
Blimey.
It is brutal. But what else do they deserve? They are all complicit in the mess the tories have created.
It is just a shame that Reform will rise from the ashes. Not a Lib Dem or some other opposition.
Heard the same about trump and the Republican party.
I suspect a lot of money and serious dodgy characters are behind a lot of the right wing movements we are seeing spreading across Europe and America.
Also Mel Stride (Work and Pensions Sec) in Central Devon is predicted to lose his seat to Labour, which would be astonishing. Has always been Tory and has quite a strong Lib Dem presence. Can't wait.
It’s a shame they’ve fucked the NHS up so much, because there’s absolutely no chance this thing is going away in the next four hours and I could really do with seeing a doctor
From the Mayo Clinic's website:
"If you have an erection lasting more than four hours, you need emergency care. The emergency room doctor will determine whether you have ischemic priapism or nonischemic priapism."
I suspect that electoral priapism is a subset of nonischemic priapism. But I'm not a doctor, so you would be better to consult a specialist.
I don't care if I have to stay up all night, if Braverman is going to lose her seat I will fucking well be there with popcorn and a large alcoholic drink to watch her stood a dimly-lit sports centre at 4am getting her marching orders. I hope she ugly-cries and tries to grab the mic before she's escorted off before never hearing from her again.
If Northern England goes entirely red (bar the odd spot of orange) I will be quietly satisfied, I'll admit.
This is with the Tories on an estimated 23%, too, which is certainly looking like the higher end of their range at the moment.
The stupid thing is a lot of northern voters bought into the "levelling up" nonsense. All the Tories had to do was chuck some money up north for anything and they could have cemented a bunch of seats. But instead "levelling up" was just more talk with no actual action and now the voters are drifting back to labour.
The current crop of conservatives seem genuinely bad at politics.
>The stupid thing is a lot of northern voters bought into the "levelling up" nonsense.
My understanding is that these seats were just becoming more in line with other seats in the country. i.e. after accounting for demographics & voter profiles, the "red wall" seats are now voting the same way as other seats with similar profiles. That what was odd about them was how before 2017 they were much more labour leaning, despite having voter profiles more aligned with the conservatives.
They did chuck some money up north but because the UK Government has zero idea how to run a large structural fund scheme they pumped it through local authorities who, mostly, had no idea what to do with the money and funded a mixture of tat, tiny projects and church hall renovations (only partial exaggeration).
And UKG still ended up with an underspend.
Meanwhile in Wales, where universities delivered £300m worth of projects between 2014 and 2021 from EU structural funds, the money was divided up between the ridiculously large number of local authorities (some as small as 60,000 people) who mostly just funded small fry projects meaning Wales lost research and innovation infrastructure because there was no reasonable way to join it all up...
The problem is in my seat we voted in a tory mp and all of a sudden there is infrastructure being built (100% increase in train platforms, new swimming pool just broke ground, rejuvenation of burnt out buildings in the city centre)
The thing is. I'm not a expert. But from the sounds of it. The polls are quite conservative and have tons of things baked in to lessen any cock ups like the errors in the brexit vote/1992 etc. so..theory, the actual numbers could be worse for the the Tories.
Forgive my ignorance here - but what's the seating arrangement in the chamber if Labour were to win so many seats? Do they cross over and sit on the far side too?
Another reason we need to move Parliament out of the Palace of Westminster, close it for repairs and reopen it as a museum. Parliament needs a new, purpose built building not being crammed into a decaying relic
Basically, it's very rare that anything like all the MPs are actually there, and it would end up feeling awfully dead and empty.
From https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/building/palace/architecture/palacestructure/churchill/
> Designed by Giles Gilbert Scott along similar lines to the old, its small size (containing only 427 seats for 640 MPs) and confrontational design helps to keep debates lively and robust but also intimate.
There's only 427 actual seats in the chamber, so after pretty much every election there's not enough space to fit all of the winning party on one side. After the 2017 election, neither Labour nor the Tories had enough space to fit their whole party on one side.
Time to extend the seating. You could fit a few 'upper level' rows above the main doors into parlement, even as a temporary measure. That'd add seating for around 60 people, which still wouldn't be enough.
For all the lies, the gaslighting of the public, the nastiness towards sections of society, the rank incompetence. I have never been so happy to see a party get their comeuppance. It’s long overdue.
I agree. Remember when Theresa May told the Tory HQ that they are viewed as the 'nasty party'? With Boris in the mix it killed any hope of changing it back into a decent party and now it's run to the ground.
I actually used to respect the Tories, not necessarily agreeing with them, but I was able to respect their positions.
Now, they’re public enemy number 1 and they deserve that label for all of the suffering they’ve caused.
I don’t think there’s a decent party left in that rotting corpse anymore.
Absolutely. May is also retiring, Philip Hammond is gone, Rory Stewart is gone, it's unknown if the party could ever become good again. I see two scenarios (they are not 'dead', they still will get probably some 100 seats and lots more councillors around the country): either they gain a really good leadership now that unites and fixes it like Starmer did to Labour, or (more likely) they will fail to fix and possibly turn further right for 1 or 2 elections, losing both of them, before they are finally reformed and healthier under a new leader.
When they were in tatters in 1997 and 2001 they had to go through two leaders before the winning third came along in David Cameron.
I've never been a fan of the Torys but as you say, you could at least respect them. They were doing what they felt was right for the country. From Cameron onwards though they changed very much into a self serving club. The back hand deals, contracts going to mates, etc.
They stopped being a party that thought they were doing the right thing and started being one that wanted to serve its own interests. At least with Cameron they still gave the impression they gave a damn. Once we got to Boris, Truss and Sunak it was blatently obvious that they couldn't give a crap about the country and were just there to serve whoever was handing them the biggest brown envelope (metaphorically speaking).
Be careful looking at these polls… you need to go out and vote, vote for whoever in your constituency can get the Tory out. They do not deserve 53 MPs, they don’t deserve any voice, they only use their voice to tell lies and for me, that’s no longer acceptable.
I'm in what was previously South Norfolk and is becoming Waveney Valley. Green looks more likely than Labour here - most of the tactical voting recommendations are for Greens because they're pushing really hard while Labour and the Lib Dems aren't really actively campaigning. There's Green placards everywhere.
The prospective new Tory MP wrote a piece moaning about the Greens so it would probably piss him off no end if they beat him.
It’s not from Labour being highly popular mind, it’s because RefUK has split the Tories so hard.
It’s how the Conservatives won a lot of seats in 2019, the Lib Dems and Greens split Labour
3 major polls released today and this is by far the most damning of them for the Tories
But there's also a huge gulf in the results of the largest parties. One of them says Labour only just get 400~ but here we're north of 500? And we still have 2 weeks to go?
The general trends are fascinating to look at either way
If you look at the article there's a little widget part way through for the "17 Tory Big Beasts" who are predicted to lose their seat.
Some of those predictions are admittedly worse for the Tories than other current polls, but it still makes for pretty steamy browsing.
I mean, this would be legit amazing. obviously... but I still think Tories will be on well over 100 come election night.
But seeing an exit poll that says \~53 would be 🧑🍳💋
I loved how they tried that with one of the council elections in recent years.
They were "predicting" losses of up to 1000 seats and the other parties told them to cut the crap, because everyone knew they were just managing expectations so when they lost "only" 800 or so they could say to the press that things actually went better than expected etc etc.
Then they lost *over* 1000.
The question about Sunaks seat is- would you prefer him to lose humiliatingly or be forced to spend the next 5 years being humiliated and unable to slip off to California?
You can resign as an MP whenever you like. And presumably you can just move to California as an MP if you want, I don’t know how anyone would stop you doing that. It’d be funny if he had to stay in a rump Conservative Party serving as an MP for 5 years, but there’s no way to make that happen.
Lose. I want him to lose his seat as the electorate vote him out. I want to watch him squirm in an acceptance speech of losing. Stick it in my veins...
If this was the final numbers and if during the term, Lib Dems won 6 Bi elections from the Torys... would the Lib dems become the official opposition or does that get "locked in" at the start of parliament?
The Lid dems would probably take over. The formal definition of the opposition party is “the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the Government, to assume office”. Source: [https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2016-06-29/debates/16062967000002/PointOfOrder#340](https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2016-06-29/debates/16062967000002/PointOfOrder#340)
If a government resigns, the party which takes over is the biggest minority party on the day the government resigns, *not* who was the biggest minority party at the previous election. The necessary consequence of that definition is that the opposition party can change, depending on seats.
> “the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the Government, to assume office”
Not necessarily the opposition party with the most MPs. After the 2016 ‘coup’ against Corbyn, he didn’t actually have enough MPs who were willing to take shadow ministerial office in order to fill all the roles; the SNP, somewhat tongue in cheek, claimed that since they could actually have spokespeople for each government position, they were the party which was most “prepared, in the event of the resignation of the Government, to assume office”.
The speaker didn’t buy it at the time but, if the coup was even more severe (imagine if Corbyn only had 6 MPs willing to sit in his shadow cabinet), then there is a more legitimate argument.
Every time a new poll comes out you imagine that it cannot get worse for the Tories. Then it does!
It is difficult to comprehend how they could possibly got everything so wrong from timing, crap policy announcements, leaving a gap for Farage to waltz into & failing to confront the twin threats of Labour & the Lib Dems in Red & Blue walls.
It'll form a text book study of how not to conduct an election campaign for a long time to come.
I think Labour will be their own opposition!
Now if someone can cause the Tories to lose 4 more seats.. that would be freaking insane.
Love seeing that Orange and green. Granted Reform not winning anything is just flat out silly. Them and Lib Dems I think will have plenty of reason to be happy on the 4th.
Can you imagine a UK where the government is Labour and the opposition is the Liberal Democrat’s. Pushing a Labour government to be more left wing.
I really hope we get to see this.
Being a poll in the Torygraph I suspect this has been carefully constructed to scare their readers away from voting Reform. There may be some truth to it, but I'd take this result with a grain of salt.
I don't buy it. The "shy Tory" is a well known phenomena. They pretend they're undecided in public but in the privacy of the booth they vote like they always have. Rory Stewart is a classic example. He's always criticizing the Tories but you just know he's going to vote for them.
My thoughts too. If anything, the massive mess the government has made over the past few years has just made shy Tories even shyer. In public they will say “gotta read the manifestos still hmm lots to chew over” and when they get into the voting booth they will open their grubby little macs and like perverts they will spaff their big X all over the Tory box
I think we will likely see a lot of those shy tories not voting.
Think the perception is Starmer doesn't worry them like Corbyn did, and they don't like the Tory party under Rishi so are content to sit this one out.
The number of undecideds is pretty low now. They would have to strongly go to Tories. I think it's those saying they'll vote Reform that will turn out to revert back to the Tories.
Treat this was caution. It's in the Conservative interest to scare its traditional voters who are considering voting for someone else into thinking Labour are going to win overwhelmingly.
The Telegraph may have 'set the filters' on the poll to be as favourable as possible to Labour and LibDems to get a poll just like this. They even allude to a key Conservative campaign message about a 'supermajority' in the write up.
This sort of news is exactly how you get voters to get apathetic and think it's not necessary to get out and vote.
Please don't let that be you. Vote people, vote!
As much as I relish the idea of the conservatives getting a well deserved thrashing, its also extremely shitty that our voting system allows Labour to get this much power with less than 45% of the vote.
This is amazing. Good fucking riddance.
My worry now is that voter apathy will kick in and also the ‘shy Tories’ will be out in force.
Hopefully Refuk, my new name for Reform UK, have pinched lots of right wing votes to offset this concern.
I have been waiting this day for a while, since the full of false propaganda about Brexit, I knew they would fuck things up, even without the pandemic.
It's still not going to be a wipeout. I can't see reform getting more than a couple of seats. Tories will probably get well over 100. Lib Dems will probably pick up a few, probably 20-30.
And the usual assortment of nationalist/separatist. SNP will probably lose a few, but no great change overall.
Rishi will hang on, but I suspect will resign despite the promise.
Snapshot of _Sunak to lose seat in Tory wipeout, major poll predicts | Exclusive survey for The Telegraph also shows party on track to slump to 53 seats with around three-quarters of the Cabinet voted out_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-to-lose-seat-tory-wipeout-major-poll-predicts/) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-to-lose-seat-tory-wipeout-major-poll-predicts/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
53 seats can still become zero seats if Sunak keeps working as hard and campaigning as rigorously as he has been
I cannot fucking believe this. My marginal seat has been Tory since 2010. I thought finally, finally I might have an MP that's more representative of my political leanings. Then the boundary changes happened, they took my town out of the marginal constituency and lumped it in with the fucking iron clad safest Tory seat in existence next door. He may very well be literally one of the last Tories standing, but looks like I'll be subjected to local Tory rule for the foreseeable...
Don't lose hope! My seat was the safest of safe Tory seats but went Lib Dem at a by election and now is set to stay yellow. You never know! Unless you're in East Grinstead and Uckfield. They are saddled with both a daft name and a seemingly unshakeable Tory deathgrip.
Those who were part of Lewes constituency - Maria Caulfield end up with Mimms Davies
We had Mimms as Mp in Eastleigh, fucking useless at her job. Never there
Living in the south west is the same. For some of those ironclad Tory seats to flip, Sunak would have to murder a puppy on live TV and even then…
He could admit he did in his memoir like that woman from South Dakota.
You mean Kristi Noem, the *governor* of South Dakota? That still has to be one of the worst self-inflicted political injuries in recent American history. Noem was always an awful person (She's banned from something like 20% of her own state thanks to racist remarks she's made against Native Americans) but I have no idea why she thought bragging about killing a puppy and a goat for being a fucking goat would help her.
Kristi Noem
Not true for Liam Fox! Will finally be rid of him!
Mine Tory is gone if this is true! Macclesfield has always been Tory since it was established after WW1. But our MP "only" has a 10K majority.
My town has been conservative for the past 110 years. But is now predicted to be Labour after the elections. There’s always hope.
Just try and bribe him/her and record it. It seems the tories are incapable of resisting and unable to detect a dodgy situation, you could be holding your phone up and visibly recording the sting and theyd plough on with it
A Canada style wipeout is due
Think he's been keeping a low profile the last few days to avoid getting worse
He was on LBC this morning, looked kind of defeated to me
His protection officer has just been done for betting on election dates. You never know, he might have a few more d-days up his sleeve.
Nuclear MRP poll. Conservative Party HQ is probably screaming about now, as doubt anyone expected any MRP poll to be showing so few seats. Labour Majority of 382 - LOL. They could split off the Coop party and become the opposition with ease.
>Labour Majority of 382 Read this as 382 Labour seats at first, but no, just their *majority*. The numbers coming out now are frankly difficult to comprehend
That is properly insane.
What's insane is around 20% of the population thinking, the last 14 years have been great. More of the same please
I literally saw a video of a poor couple who "really hope the tories get back in because they helped provide food banks so we could eat" It's startling that they dont realize the tories are the reason they need a food bank
Jesus Wept
Imagine the most average motherfucker you know. Half of people are even thicker, and barely qualified to operate shoes.
That's an astonishing level of stupidity and/or mental gymnastics.
I know "consciousness raising" is now the punchline to a joke about 60s feminists, but if there was ever a case for it...
Yeah. That's people like my old uncle. Lifelong Tory voter but not at all engaged with day to day politics. He'd vote for anyone with the rosette on. Even he saw what a bad idea Brexit was yet still voted for them again because "that's who I vote for" I guess that covers a fair amount of the base
This is what is puzzling me.
For as long as the Tories enforce the triple lock they will always have a minimum 15% of the vote. The other 5% I make no excuses for
No, this is very sane, the incumbants have to go
Of course. I mean, insane in that I have never ever seen anything like this and I'm old.
With that, the could be pretty bold, pass anything, assuming decent party unity that is.
They wouldn't even need decent party unity, they'd just need some mild level of party unity...
Labour One Party State 🎵The People's flag is deepest red, it shrouded oft our martyred dead!🎵
Is there a chance the track could bend?
I'm afraid so my Hindu friend
* "There's no earthly way of knowing Which direction we are going There's no knowing where we're rowing Or which way the river's flowing Is it raining, is it snowing Is a hurricane a–blowing Not a speck of light is showing So the danger must be growing Are the fires of Hell a–glowing Is the grisly reaper mowing" *
These polls vary wildly. Sky have just released one where Labour have a 200 majority. It's clear they're going to win comfortably but there's no consensus on how much.
Yep - largely because of FPTP. Smaller parties hate it because they can win a significant vote share, win next to no MPs, large parties love it because it locks the smaller parties out. However, in this case, the Tories are so far underwater now, at that magical cross-over point where half a percentage point shift in the polls (i.e. a shift within the margin of error) is the difference between 50 seats in the commons and 150.
The concerning thing is RefUK is also there, but travelling the other way
The fact that they only disagree on how many 100s the majority will be is insane.
The only real question is who will be LOTO
Big Eddie D
I should like this, but it makes me feel like Lionel Hutz thinking of a world without lawyers.
> They could split off the Coop party and become the opposition with ease. Oh wow, I hadn't considered this. Technically it's riskier since you can't easily discipline, but this just *breaks* the commons.
[удалено]
They're going to be punished for having a stonking majority no matter what next election, I'm fairly sure. My assumption is every other party is going to pivot to electoral reform front and centre, with the aim of making labour do a cameron and blink.
[удалено]
Of course, but you are in the megathread where memes are dreams and labour is the official opposition
Unless they make big sweeping changes and they start actually working for people.
Given the current political climate, there is every possibility this labour government ends in a war cabinet. (Assuming you would even bother with a majority that large.) The alternative is this just shifts British politics as the collapse of the liberal party did following the 1918 elections.
As fun as this idea is, the speaker would just tell them to stop dicking around.
Honestly, I’d vote coop over labour but I don’t think they would go over with most of the nation who don’t even know they exist.
We do know they exist, and paying £2.20 for a loaf of bread or £3.25 for a jar of Dolmio sauce is ridiculous.
382 seat majority and STILL the Conservatives are moving right as they're scared of losing a handful to Reform.
To be fair the combined Tory and Reform vote would put them not very far behind Labour. Achieving a large shift from Reform to Tory won't win them the election but it would save them from the impending wholesale slaughter they're staring in the face. At this point the Tories know they're losing. What they're hoping to do is minimise the damage so they have as much as possible to rebuild from for 2029 or 2034.
Can you educate me what splitting off the coop party means? How many lab MPs are COOP. I've never really understood the distinction and sort of assumed labour and coop were one and the same.
It’s a bit like labour’s relationship with trade unions only a lot closer, they support the Labour Party financially and with grass root campaigning but the MPs themselves are beholden to the party, it’s just that the party is influenced by the coop
There’s a list of their MPs here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Labour_Co-operative_MPs#A A fair few names you’d recognise in there, like Jon Ashworth, Anneliese Dodds, Ed Balls, Luciana Berger etc. The interesting thing is that they don’t have an actual party leader.
>Penny Mordaunt, the Commons Leader, Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, and Robert Jenrick, the former migration minister, all lose their seats on this prediction. >So too do Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, and James Cleverly, the Home Secretary Blimey.
It is brutal. But what else do they deserve? They are all complicit in the mess the tories have created. It is just a shame that Reform will rise from the ashes. Not a Lib Dem or some other opposition.
It does predict 0 seats for reform. Not sure I believe that, one can hope. I suspect Farage might win this time
Well you can’t blame Clacton for being so worried about immigration. The population there is only 96% white after all.
And 2% yellow. (From alcohol poisoning.)
That’s a very jaundiced view of the place
What do you mean? Lib Dems are going to do very well out of this election. Will probably double their seats.
It’s futile. Doubling their seats means nothing
Reform will lead them further down a blind alley, just like Corbyn did with labour.
Reform are like the corbyn effect but worse. If they cuddle up with reform then they're done as a serious potential party of government
Heard the same about trump and the Republican party. I suspect a lot of money and serious dodgy characters are behind a lot of the right wing movements we are seeing spreading across Europe and America.
They all deserve to lose their seats. They are all hopeless un serious people
Also Mel Stride (Work and Pensions Sec) in Central Devon is predicted to lose his seat to Labour, which would be astonishing. Has always been Tory and has quite a strong Lib Dem presence. Can't wait.
It’s a shame they’ve fucked the NHS up so much, because there’s absolutely no chance this thing is going away in the next four hours and I could really do with seeing a doctor
From the Mayo Clinic's website: "If you have an erection lasting more than four hours, you need emergency care. The emergency room doctor will determine whether you have ischemic priapism or nonischemic priapism." I suspect that electoral priapism is a subset of nonischemic priapism. But I'm not a doctor, so you would be better to consult a specialist.
I don't care if I have to stay up all night, if Braverman is going to lose her seat I will fucking well be there with popcorn and a large alcoholic drink to watch her stood a dimly-lit sports centre at 4am getting her marching orders. I hope she ugly-cries and tries to grab the mic before she's escorted off before never hearing from her again.
I have never wanted anything more.
Former migration minister listed above Chancellor is weird
Everyone's known that Hunt and Cleverley could be in trouble for a while. The likes of Jenrick, Braverman and Sunak losing their seats is new
Who would even lead the party at that point?
Oh man, that's like the full house on my election night bingo sheet!
If Northern England goes entirely red (bar the odd spot of orange) I will be quietly satisfied, I'll admit. This is with the Tories on an estimated 23%, too, which is certainly looking like the higher end of their range at the moment.
After levelling up turned into lets cancel as much infrastructure as possible I'm not surprised
The stupid thing is a lot of northern voters bought into the "levelling up" nonsense. All the Tories had to do was chuck some money up north for anything and they could have cemented a bunch of seats. But instead "levelling up" was just more talk with no actual action and now the voters are drifting back to labour. The current crop of conservatives seem genuinely bad at politics.
>The stupid thing is a lot of northern voters bought into the "levelling up" nonsense. My understanding is that these seats were just becoming more in line with other seats in the country. i.e. after accounting for demographics & voter profiles, the "red wall" seats are now voting the same way as other seats with similar profiles. That what was odd about them was how before 2017 they were much more labour leaning, despite having voter profiles more aligned with the conservatives.
The new northern powerhouse is levelling up.
They did chuck some money up north but because the UK Government has zero idea how to run a large structural fund scheme they pumped it through local authorities who, mostly, had no idea what to do with the money and funded a mixture of tat, tiny projects and church hall renovations (only partial exaggeration). And UKG still ended up with an underspend. Meanwhile in Wales, where universities delivered £300m worth of projects between 2014 and 2021 from EU structural funds, the money was divided up between the ridiculously large number of local authorities (some as small as 60,000 people) who mostly just funded small fry projects meaning Wales lost research and innovation infrastructure because there was no reasonable way to join it all up...
The problem is in my seat we voted in a tory mp and all of a sudden there is infrastructure being built (100% increase in train platforms, new swimming pool just broke ground, rejuvenation of burnt out buildings in the city centre)
The thing is. I'm not a expert. But from the sounds of it. The polls are quite conservative and have tons of things baked in to lessen any cock ups like the errors in the brexit vote/1992 etc. so..theory, the actual numbers could be worse for the the Tories.
6 Lab MPs should defect to LD to let them become the official opposition.
That would be really amusing
LibDems only get 46? That's disappointing.
Forgive my ignorance here - but what's the seating arrangement in the chamber if Labour were to win so many seats? Do they cross over and sit on the far side too?
Yeah they'd just sit on both sides of the house
Yeah they did that back in 97 I think.
Thanks. That'd make some of the banter a bit more interesting.
Not reeeally tbh, it’s pretty much a given at this point so not that exciting. Anything above 400 and it happens.
There aren't enough seats (by design) anyway, I don't think they could reasonably sit on the opposition benches. Just have to stand, maybe!
Another reason we need to move Parliament out of the Palace of Westminster, close it for repairs and reopen it as a museum. Parliament needs a new, purpose built building not being crammed into a decaying relic
Yeah, it’s not like we need it in Central London. Holyrood is a bit further out in Edinburgh, not super far but far enough
why by design?
Basically, it's very rare that anything like all the MPs are actually there, and it would end up feeling awfully dead and empty. From https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/building/palace/architecture/palacestructure/churchill/ > Designed by Giles Gilbert Scott along similar lines to the old, its small size (containing only 427 seats for 640 MPs) and confrontational design helps to keep debates lively and robust but also intimate.
There's only 427 actual seats in the chamber, so after pretty much every election there's not enough space to fit all of the winning party on one side. After the 2017 election, neither Labour nor the Tories had enough space to fit their whole party on one side.
Seats like bunk beds, stacked atop one another, with then just one half full bean bag for the lone Tory
Time to extend the seating. You could fit a few 'upper level' rows above the main doors into parlement, even as a temporary measure. That'd add seating for around 60 people, which still wouldn't be enough.
For all the lies, the gaslighting of the public, the nastiness towards sections of society, the rank incompetence. I have never been so happy to see a party get their comeuppance. It’s long overdue.
I agree. Remember when Theresa May told the Tory HQ that they are viewed as the 'nasty party'? With Boris in the mix it killed any hope of changing it back into a decent party and now it's run to the ground.
I actually used to respect the Tories, not necessarily agreeing with them, but I was able to respect their positions. Now, they’re public enemy number 1 and they deserve that label for all of the suffering they’ve caused. I don’t think there’s a decent party left in that rotting corpse anymore.
Absolutely. May is also retiring, Philip Hammond is gone, Rory Stewart is gone, it's unknown if the party could ever become good again. I see two scenarios (they are not 'dead', they still will get probably some 100 seats and lots more councillors around the country): either they gain a really good leadership now that unites and fixes it like Starmer did to Labour, or (more likely) they will fail to fix and possibly turn further right for 1 or 2 elections, losing both of them, before they are finally reformed and healthier under a new leader. When they were in tatters in 1997 and 2001 they had to go through two leaders before the winning third came along in David Cameron.
Two leaders, no problem be on to the fifth or sixth by next summer.
Labour was in tatters in 2019. We are in the process of creating our own Le Pen/Geert Wilders unfortunately.
I've never been a fan of the Torys but as you say, you could at least respect them. They were doing what they felt was right for the country. From Cameron onwards though they changed very much into a self serving club. The back hand deals, contracts going to mates, etc. They stopped being a party that thought they were doing the right thing and started being one that wanted to serve its own interests. At least with Cameron they still gave the impression they gave a damn. Once we got to Boris, Truss and Sunak it was blatently obvious that they couldn't give a crap about the country and were just there to serve whoever was handing them the biggest brown envelope (metaphorically speaking).
Be careful looking at these polls… you need to go out and vote, vote for whoever in your constituency can get the Tory out. They do not deserve 53 MPs, they don’t deserve any voice, they only use their voice to tell lies and for me, that’s no longer acceptable.
That map suggests Lincolnshire, Norfolk, High Leicestershire, and Rutland turning Labour. My mind melts at the thought...it's far too good to be true.
I'm in what was previously South Norfolk and is becoming Waveney Valley. Green looks more likely than Labour here - most of the tactical voting recommendations are for Greens because they're pushing really hard while Labour and the Lib Dems aren't really actively campaigning. There's Green placards everywhere. The prospective new Tory MP wrote a piece moaning about the Greens so it would probably piss him off no end if they beat him.
The Greens also hold most of the council seats within that constituency.
Will we have three Green MPs?
Some predictions say so.
If Lincolnshire goes red I will eat my first born child There's no way that's happening.
Agree...Boston? Sleaford? SKEGNESS??
It’s not from Labour being highly popular mind, it’s because RefUK has split the Tories so hard. It’s how the Conservatives won a lot of seats in 2019, the Lib Dems and Greens split Labour
I don’t believe it. As some from Lincolnshire you’d see the second coming of Christ before you see it go to Labour.
Same with Rutland. I just can’t see that happening. Lib Dem possibly, but never Labour.
Yeah as much as I think it would be poetic and amazing for Rishi to lose in Richmond I just don't see that happening
If the Lib Dem and Green voters in Richmond vote tactically, then Sunak would 100% lose. It’s a big if, though.
It might be because those areas are more prone to see Conservatives defect to Reform than seats in the south.
3 major polls released today and this is by far the most damning of them for the Tories But there's also a huge gulf in the results of the largest parties. One of them says Labour only just get 400~ but here we're north of 500? And we still have 2 weeks to go? The general trends are fascinating to look at either way
It seems to be around the 40-140 seats mark for the Tories. The reform results are Abit fifty because it's a small party.
It feels like we've reached a point where the numbers are so ridiculous that electoral calculus just breaks down.
Not to exaggerate, but I’d genuinely bust down my leg
If you look at the article there's a little widget part way through for the "17 Tory Big Beasts" who are predicted to lose their seat. Some of those predictions are admittedly worse for the Tories than other current polls, but it still makes for pretty steamy browsing.
There are no Tory big beasts, that idiom doesn’t make sense anymore.
Eric Pickles is still in the Lords
The entire country would in unison.
The whole of the nation smelling like a teenagers bedroom for a week.
Nope, don't like that. Might need to rethink my vote.
A dribbler I see
I mean, this would be legit amazing. obviously... but I still think Tories will be on well over 100 come election night. But seeing an exit poll that says \~53 would be 🧑🍳💋
I plan on stocking up on energy drinks to help stay up all night but if that exit poll came through then I wouldn't need them.
God I'm so hyped for election night it's going to be hilarious, total tory destruction
Looks like the Tories weren’t “Getting on with delivering for the country” after all.
Quick CCHQ, tell everyone you're going to lose and to vote for you so you don't lose that badly
I loved how they tried that with one of the council elections in recent years. They were "predicting" losses of up to 1000 seats and the other parties told them to cut the crap, because everyone knew they were just managing expectations so when they lost "only" 800 or so they could say to the press that things actually went better than expected etc etc. Then they lost *over* 1000.
Really ramp it up! Tell them how humiliating it's going to be for you!!!
The question about Sunaks seat is- would you prefer him to lose humiliatingly or be forced to spend the next 5 years being humiliated and unable to slip off to California?
You can resign as an MP whenever you like. And presumably you can just move to California as an MP if you want, I don’t know how anyone would stop you doing that. It’d be funny if he had to stay in a rump Conservative Party serving as an MP for 5 years, but there’s no way to make that happen.
Sentencing someone to five years of Tory would definitely be "cruel and unusual punishment"
I suppose you're right. That's what I'd prefer if it were available.
Lose. I want him to lose his seat as the electorate vote him out. I want to watch him squirm in an acceptance speech of losing. Stick it in my veins...
He'll just piss off to Cali anyway. He might come back to do the odd spot of lobbying or entertaining when his Mrs' Dad commands him to
Nah, have his legacy be the first sitting PM to lose their seat, that would be so delicious.
Thing is if he doesnt lose his seat, he'll still be off to California, which means his constituents get an even shitter MP than usual.
I'm voting Labour. But I'll consider the election lost if the Tories arent driven to near extinction and overtook by the Lib Dems.
If this was the final numbers and if during the term, Lib Dems won 6 Bi elections from the Torys... would the Lib dems become the official opposition or does that get "locked in" at the start of parliament?
The Lid dems would probably take over. The formal definition of the opposition party is “the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the Government, to assume office”. Source: [https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2016-06-29/debates/16062967000002/PointOfOrder#340](https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2016-06-29/debates/16062967000002/PointOfOrder#340) If a government resigns, the party which takes over is the biggest minority party on the day the government resigns, *not* who was the biggest minority party at the previous election. The necessary consequence of that definition is that the opposition party can change, depending on seats.
> “the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the Government, to assume office” Not necessarily the opposition party with the most MPs. After the 2016 ‘coup’ against Corbyn, he didn’t actually have enough MPs who were willing to take shadow ministerial office in order to fill all the roles; the SNP, somewhat tongue in cheek, claimed that since they could actually have spokespeople for each government position, they were the party which was most “prepared, in the event of the resignation of the Government, to assume office”. The speaker didn’t buy it at the time but, if the coup was even more severe (imagine if Corbyn only had 6 MPs willing to sit in his shadow cabinet), then there is a more legitimate argument.
Every time a new poll comes out you imagine that it cannot get worse for the Tories. Then it does! It is difficult to comprehend how they could possibly got everything so wrong from timing, crap policy announcements, leaving a gap for Farage to waltz into & failing to confront the twin threats of Labour & the Lib Dems in Red & Blue walls. It'll form a text book study of how not to conduct an election campaign for a long time to come. I think Labour will be their own opposition!
I won't be happy until Lib Dems are the official opposition.
Holy moly. From the telegraph too.
They would absolutely decide to report this to galvanize Tory voters anyway.
Newspapers get reputable polling companies to poll on their behalf, so you can't read much into the newspaper that reports on it.
As much as I believe the Tories will end up with over 200 seats I never fail to be delighted by these projections
Down to 53 seats and still the opposition. Can Labour just endorse the Lib Dems in 4 marginal constituencies? lol
Now if someone can cause the Tories to lose 4 more seats.. that would be freaking insane. Love seeing that Orange and green. Granted Reform not winning anything is just flat out silly. Them and Lib Dems I think will have plenty of reason to be happy on the 4th.
*squints to see if my constituency is still blue* It's still blue. It's been blue for like 250 years straight at this point.
Can you imagine a UK where the government is Labour and the opposition is the Liberal Democrat’s. Pushing a Labour government to be more left wing. I really hope we get to see this.
If anything it would make sense for the lib dems to try to become the main center-right party, squeeze out the cons while they chase after reform.
Oh dear
MOAR! I'm not going to be happy until my MP is on track to lose her seat.
If it comes to pass that Sunak looses his seat I’ll crack open my special vodka
Being a poll in the Torygraph I suspect this has been carefully constructed to scare their readers away from voting Reform. There may be some truth to it, but I'd take this result with a grain of salt.
53 seats too many Zero seats is the only acceptable outcome
Can we go negative?
We can certainly try
I don't buy it. The "shy Tory" is a well known phenomena. They pretend they're undecided in public but in the privacy of the booth they vote like they always have. Rory Stewart is a classic example. He's always criticizing the Tories but you just know he's going to vote for them.
My thoughts too. If anything, the massive mess the government has made over the past few years has just made shy Tories even shyer. In public they will say “gotta read the manifestos still hmm lots to chew over” and when they get into the voting booth they will open their grubby little macs and like perverts they will spaff their big X all over the Tory box
I think we will likely see a lot of those shy tories not voting. Think the perception is Starmer doesn't worry them like Corbyn did, and they don't like the Tory party under Rishi so are content to sit this one out.
It's a well-known phenomenon, which is why it is now accounted for by polling companies.
The number of undecideds is pretty low now. They would have to strongly go to Tories. I think it's those saying they'll vote Reform that will turn out to revert back to the Tories.
Treat this was caution. It's in the Conservative interest to scare its traditional voters who are considering voting for someone else into thinking Labour are going to win overwhelmingly. The Telegraph may have 'set the filters' on the poll to be as favourable as possible to Labour and LibDems to get a poll just like this. They even allude to a key Conservative campaign message about a 'supermajority' in the write up.
This would be the punishment, and complete rejection, that the Tories deserve for the last 14 years.
I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again,, ignore ignore ignore ignore ignore. Nothing has been won yet. Make sure you vote on 4th July.
anyone else not impressed and, instead, worried about complacency?
Tell everyone you know to get out and vote.
Has a sitting Prime Minister ever lost their seat in an UK election before?
No. Never.
Ooh, so looks like there's a target to achieve.
Though this map would have you believe otherwise, Northern Ireland exists.
What is the general feel in NI, out of interest?
Wonder if he'd secretly prefer it, then he can go hide without breaking another promise.
One thing I'll say for Nige, he destroyed the Tories
This sort of news is exactly how you get voters to get apathetic and think it's not necessary to get out and vote. Please don't let that be you. Vote people, vote!
As much as I relish the idea of the conservatives getting a well deserved thrashing, its also extremely shitty that our voting system allows Labour to get this much power with less than 45% of the vote.
That old meme of Keir Starmer painting a map of Britain red is actually gonna come true.
Off the back of this would any cabinet ministers loose their deposits..... that would be brilliant 👏
This is amazing. Good fucking riddance. My worry now is that voter apathy will kick in and also the ‘shy Tories’ will be out in force. Hopefully Refuk, my new name for Reform UK, have pinched lots of right wing votes to offset this concern.
Ironically, the greater torture (from his perspective) would be in him keeping the seat.
Sunak: "Oh, oh nooo, that's *awful*, that's the last thing I want to happen, I so want to be a backbench opposition MP, oh noooooo..." 👀
I have been waiting this day for a while, since the full of false propaganda about Brexit, I knew they would fuck things up, even without the pandemic.
It's still not going to be a wipeout. I can't see reform getting more than a couple of seats. Tories will probably get well over 100. Lib Dems will probably pick up a few, probably 20-30. And the usual assortment of nationalist/separatist. SNP will probably lose a few, but no great change overall. Rishi will hang on, but I suspect will resign despite the promise.