Snapshot of _Britain Predicts/New Statesman Model Projection June 22nd: LAB 435 MPs (+235 vs 2019), CON 96 (-276), LDEM 66 (+55), SNP 24 (-24), REF 6 (+6), GRN 4 (+3), PC 3 (+1)_ :
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This isn't an opinion poll, for those confused. This is a model that uses all the reputable opinion polls as its basis and then tries to create a pattern from them. Whether it's accurate or not we won't know till after the election, but it does have some experienced people behind it.
The TV exit polls announced on the stroke of 10pm on election night have been getting very good in recent years. In particular, the exit poll announced in 2005 was almost completely perfect and was a gnat's hair away from being the actual result.
2015 was a bit dodgy though and didn't spot Cameron's majority.
Was a little dodgy but Professor Curtice had warned of the majority from the word go, so I’d mark that down as a known fault which has likely been ironed out. They were right when it came to the most hotly contested aspects which were the Lib Dem collapse and the failure of opinion polls.
For those interested, the 3 Green gains are North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley (gains from Conservative) and Bristol Central (gain from Labour), while they hold Brighton Pavilion. These are all four seats that the Greens were targeting this election.
The 6 Reform gains (perhaps obviously) include Clacton and Boston & Skegness, but they also pick up Mid Buckinghamshire [candidate is Stephanie Harwood], Hornchurch & Upminster [Nicholas Palmer], South Basildon & East Thurrock [James McMurdock] and Castle Point [Keiron McGill]. All gains from Conservative.
Labour regains Rochdale and Islington North from Galloway and Corbyn respectively.
Ben Walker from Britain Elects went through this last night [on his YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/live/9pWPHxMSNZo?si=2nrEU9-Rvtrl-t3w). He says his model currently doesn't account for Muslim voters who may have been put off Labour by Gaza etc but he's working on it with urgency.
I'll watch that tomorrow. This forecast is pretty whack overall so I'm interested to hear what he has to say. He always seems pretty sensible whenever I see interviews with him. If he's got this one right, that will be massively impressive.
I think that’s a combination of Ashfield Independents getting a huge chunk of the Reform-leaning vote and relatively tight margins just keep them out. Like Great Yarmouth, a combined Reform-Tory vote of 36.6% would trump the 29.1% of Labour.
Hang on, I live in Mid Buckinghamshire. I know it's a safe Tory seat (or at least it used to be) but I assumed the main threat came from the Lib Dems - I never thought Reform stood a serious chance. It's mostly wealthy rural retirees around here, which is a demographic that heavily skews Tory but I assume is quite different from a strong Reform target like Clacton.
Mid Bucks isn't even on this list of Reform's top 28 target seats: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/04/seats-reform-threat-general-election-right-wing-tory-votes/
Can this poll be trusted? Where's the evidence that Reform are popular in Mid Buckinghamshire?
YouGov MRP gives you a very comfortable hold for Tories in that seat. I'd take that one as more reliable as the methodology here isn't at constituency level and taking things into account that are likely to be unlikely (national swings playing out at local levels, using local election results).
I gotta admit, I was a bit thrown by that myself. Apparently, this isn’t really a poll, but rather a model based on all the polls to level them out. I also don’t know how accurate it is, but it’s apparently been accurate in the past.
Yeah it also has Labour in third place here ahead of the Lib Dems which I think would be a surprise to the local Labour candidate as Labour barely seem to be campaigning around here, and the Lib Dems are promoting themselves as the only viable chance of beating the Tories.
Either this poll is very wrong, or we are living in extremely strange political times. Both are plausible.
Looks like it’s close there. It has a Labour gain on 29.1%, Tories second with 26.2% (a loss of 39.6%!) and Reform third with 24.9%. A unified Reform-Tory vote would regain it.
I really don’t see very much of that coming to pass.
Whatever the methodology for this model it seems to skew heavily for the smaller parties compared to all the other polls I’ve seen.
Not much has been written about how much stronger Reform support is in Essex, compared to elsewhere in the home counties. Three (plus one now in London but historically Essex) or their six seats there.
Not surprised Bristol Central is going Green. Marvin Rees fucked up our city as mayor and did such a piss-poor job that we voted to abolish the position entirely.
A terrible mayor is how Labour managed to burn a lot of support in Bristol.
the greens are an utter embarrassment and if they get seats and a platform for people to actually hear their ideas beyond green = environment :) they will be wiped out
horse-shoe with farage on supporting russia through wanting to leave nato
Amongst people I know which are predominantly Conservative voters there is an overwhelming majority for Reform. That is one thing, what is really shocking is that amongst those I know that have never voted they're suddenly aware of Farage and voting Reform. This isn't me being unaware of previously held beliefs, this is simply Farage having cut though. My brain is telling me 3-4 Reform seats but my gut is telling me something weird is happening.
Tbh I imagine the Conservatives are over the moon that they didn't crack down on postal votes, imagine how bad their polling will be after just under 2 weeks of gamblegate, they're lucky some of their voters have already posted their vote!
Social media is a bad indication. It seems that Reform supporters have been told to spam social media as much as possible. Even my local Facebook group which saw nothing more interesting than ads for car valeting has been completely taken over by them.
This. These polls struggle to account for smaller parties votes. And I've seen seats that are safe as safe Tory seats going by massive swings (30/40). I feel like the models cant account for that level of difference. But also from the sounds of it. There's alot of factoring in to account for shy Tories etc. so, taking into account the direction of travel. May actually be worse for the Tories.
My worry is that reform will establish themselves as the clear alternative to cons this govt and by the next election when labour inevitably do absolutely nothing to fix the country the pendulum will swing back and reform will win the election.
The reform peak is 25-30%. They can break through into the disillusioned Tory and Labour voters to a certain extent, but when push comes to shove, the majority of the country do see them for what they truly are
The majority of the country have not voted Tory in the last 14 years
Even just looking at those who voted -
2010 - Conservative 36%, Labour 29%, LibDem 23%
2014 - Conservative 37%, Labour 30%, LibDem 8%
2017 - Conservative 42%, Labour 40%, Libdem 8%
2019 - Conservative - 44%, Labour 32%, LibDen 7%
No of which were a majority of voters
No party has received a majority of votes since WW2. The only government that has had a majority of votes was the 2010 coalition, but that was of course not a single party.
> the majority of the country do see them for what they truly are
No, most are just programmed to vote for the uniparty courtesy of FPTP. Perhaps this will change someday..
That argument is a decade out of date.
In 2010 economists were arguing that the current high level of immigration may need to increase by 10, 20 or even - at the highest end - 30% in order to cover the demographic shift of the UK.
It has increased by 300%. There is no sound economic argument for this.
The problem with that analysis is we left the EU. But no one wants to talk about that.
We needed a 30% increase in immigration, but we traded EU migration for non-EU migration. And the non-EU migrants want to bring their families with them; they're paying far more (so are richer and more likely to have a family), they can't travel as easily back to visit their families (and risk being not allowed back in if they leave), and with such a big investment they're looking to settle in the UK more permanently.
So 30% more workers, plus 200% because everyone is bringing 1-3 people with them.
The rest are the Hong Kong/Ukraine schemes, plus the increase in students due to the Government cutting their funds.
I'm not saying all of the immigration is needed, but we do need some and I expect if you talk to the people likely to vote for 0 immigration reform, they won't understand that some immigration is good and that's an important distinction.
Reform aren't calling for zero immigration, they are calling for net zero, or in other words about 400k per year.
Please define your definition of "some", because 400k sounds like a hell of a lot to me
illegal immigrants cost us a couple billion each year, but it pales in comparison to the amount boomers are stealing through the state pension. somehow, nobody wants to speak about it.
They're stealing even more when you consider their rent seeking stranglehold on the planning system. Paying over the odds in a supply-constricted housing market, lost growth and hence lost wages from inability to build, borrowing for elderly welfare that will ultimately fall on taxpayers. So much of our economy is built around siphoning wealth away from workers and towards the geriatric.
Sorry, how are boomers "stealing" a state pension that they are legally entitled to and have paid NI for the past 40+ years on? You may disagree and want to change that, but they're not stealing anything.
They're stealing from the next generation who are paying through the nose (see also housing) and won't see anything close for their own retirement.
Boomers have torn up the social contract.
First of all when they paid NI, they were funding the NHS and Welfare, not the state pension.
Even if they were, compare what they paid in and what they receive
You can dress up what they paid and what it was used for all you like, the state pension as it stands is a legal entitlement. No one is stealing anything and your use of that term undermines whatever student politics you're grasping at.
Both my parents (ex nurse and ex police) are of state pension age. They get the state pension alongside their (modest) workplace and private pensions. Are they thieves?
I reckon they’ll get about 16-18% and the Conservatives within about 2% of that. (Mainly due to lower than usual turnout from their disillusioned base.)
Definitely going to be the most interesting election night in… ever… So many seats will be pretty close 2-3-4 way seats on the night.
Prediction 1: SHOCKING results!! (Coz the media love a nice shock.)
Prediction 2: The Conservatives only win 11 seats.
Even in the traditionally very safe Tory seat of Salisbury, I reckon it's going to be 20-30% between the big 4 parties. The frustrating thing is there's no clear tactical vote here.
My folks live in a nearby “safe” Tory seat and the vibes I’m getting are not good for the Conservatives. The oldies are just “fed up”. My folks will probably vote Lib Dem because that’s the best tactical vote against the Cons who they are just sick of.
They’ve voted for the Conservatives many times in the last, but not anymore. I think many of their friends are the same. Some will stay home. Some will switch. The ones who are staying blue are genuinely shy conservatives lol.
We’ll see on the day, but I’m feeling a much bigger upset than almost anyone is predicting.
(11. Seats.)
That’s fair but then all we have to go on is polling which for all parties is showing massive differences. We might have silent reform voters but I do wonder if there are a number of silent labour/lib dem voters as well, especially in those traditional rural tories seats. Getting hit from both ends by silent voters.
I think so as well. I have a feeling there will be a lot of shocked people, and I'm afraid they are going to win a number of seats, and put some real nutters in. I'm also afraid that the Tories will try to strike a deal with them and put some in the Shadow Cabinet, which will turn Parliament into a shit show.
If Reform do any kind of deal with the Torries, they are finished, the entire point in them is a fight against the establishment, jump into bed with the establishment and they are over; won’t happen.
Reform are so far outside the normal range that I can't see why they'd have quiet voters. Their voters are shouting proudly about it, and I can't see many votes from the rest of the mainstream going that way.
Right, (and indeed, the inverse is true in other parts of the country) - but if we are talking about "silent" in terms of polling, why keep that quiet? The MRP boffin isn't going to toss his mcflurry at you in the street.
It's not the boffin that's the problem. It's the thought the data might leak. There's some data point out there linking your name to Reform.
Hell, if I supported reform and my office found out I'd either get fired or a lot of abuse.
Doesn't seem very likely to happen, but why take the chance? What do you get out of being honest?
No political poll Ive ever been asked to take has asked for any identifiable information though, they'll just ask if you're registered and intend to vote - and which constituency sometimes.
In fact, the only time your vote and identifiable information would be put together is on the actual polling card, so if people are so ashamed of voting Reform (which, raises a load of other questions) then they should tell the anonymised pollsters they'll vote Reform and then not do it on July 4th.
Like I said not likely. But people are kinda understandably more paranoid these days.
If you were invited by email, then there's probably a pseudomonised link in the system somewhere.
The software probably scoops up your IP. Possibly Mac code. Maybe your postcode is in there somewhere?
Why take the chance?
Agreed, the reform vote will either be nowhere, or way higher than we expect, and I'm leaning towards the latter.
The next few years will be important to see how reform will go, personally I think that if the Tories are not destroyed then Reform will get stronger. If the Tories are sent to 3rd party status then Reform will likely die on the vine as they need a more mainstream party to deflect the scrutiny they cannot stand under.
It's all the more reason to vote against the Tories tactically to get rid of as many of their MPs as possible and cut off the advance of reform.
Reform will definitely get more of the popular vote over conservatives but less seats because of FPTP. However reform is not silent at all. They are very loud on social media!
They will easily match the 2015 UKIP vote tally IMO, and that was one of Farage's objectives.
Farage himself is also a dead cert to finally win a seat in the HoC.
I have the opposite opinion that the Reform vote will shift Tory on election day. Sunak to remind everyone he will step down as leader if he loses the election. Then it's not for him you're directly voting.
I think the silent Tory vote is larger this year than ever. I bet loads will go to the ballot box and vote Conservative and never admit it. I'm sceptical of any poll putting Conservatives below 150 let alone 100 seats. Wouldn't be surprised if they have close to 200, and Sunak is furious as he planned on pissong off to California.
Been doorstepping for Labour in East Anglia. Reform are likely to come 2nd by a clear margin in my town and their supporters aren't particularly silent, if anything they're proud about it. Many shy Tories though.
> I think the silent Reform vote will shock people.
Never underestimate the quiet bat(shit) people.
Edit: lol, touched a nerve with some reform lurkers
>South West Norfolk:
>Con 27.8
>Ref 26.0
The model predicts a pretty good result for Reform in South West Norfolk...Liz Truss's seat.
I doubt that she will lose as it is extremely safe for the Tories, but it's interesting nonetheless.
>Richmond and Northallerton:
>Con 27.8
>Lab 23.1
>Ref 19.5
>LDem 11.3
>Oth 11.2
The race for Sunak's seat might be closer than we think. I find it really interesting how the vote share for other candidates is at 11.2%, that is really high.
>Maidenhead:
>LDem 33.9
>Con 32.0
Maidenhead is going to the Lib Dems according the model which was, until the dissolution of Parliament, Theresa May's seat.
It's a pity there aren't more Lib-Labour electoral pacts to oust prominent Conservatives.
Although I do look forward to the impending by-election in Richmond.
Maidenhead used to be my parents constituency, and I can't help but feel this is in no small part down to the fact that Theresa May is standing down as well.
She was a very well liked local MP and to be fair to her was still active there even when she was PM, and had she remained I could have seen them retaining it because she was at least one of the slightly more sane Tories.
The prediction for Beaconsfield, traditionally the 5st safest Tory seat where they get \~60% of the vote, is both exciting for how close it will be to them loosing & worrying how close Reform are if accurate. Hoping the Lib Deb result is an underestimate as they didn't stand last time
|PARTY|PCT.|CHG.|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Con|25.4 |- 30.1|
|LDem|21.7 |+ 21.7|
|Ref|19.3 |+ 19.3|
|Lab|17.0 |+ 7.1|
|Oth|10.0 |- 21.0|
Beaconsfield resident here. The libs stood aside as Dominic Cummings stood as an independent.
This time round Labour aren't really door knocking but the Cons, Ref and Libs are carpet bombing leaflets.
(I'm assuming you mean Dominic Grieve)
I've had 3 leaflets from the Lib Dems, 2 from the Cons & 1 from Reform. Lib Dems & Cons got theirs out before the postal vote ballots. Nothing at all from Labour yet, only reason I know their candidates name was the postal ballot paper.
Anecdotally there are quite a few Lib Dem garden signs/posters about, when there aren't normally any. Though I'm in the more historically lib dem friendly ward, the only ward Grieve won in last time.
Everyone’s going to talk about the conservatives but the SNP losing half of their seats, including all of Glasgow would make for quite a night (and personally quite satisfying).
Most Scottish seats are very marginal so honestly these seat projections have quite a wide margin of error there.
Couple of interesting Green seats and Reform gaining a London seat is a first too.
True Scottish central belt is highly marginal, i reckon the best result of the snp will be early 30s, which will still be a loss for them, worst case is mid teens. Either way I doubt they will be beat pleased with the result.
There are indeed polls showing the SNP losing every seat in Glasgow and the central belt being a toss-up. There was also another one showing Joanna Cherry being left as their sole Edinburgh MP.
Western Isles is going Labour for sure. It's been polling red for ages, plus the vote for the new SNP candidate will be split with Angus MacNeil.
I know the green seat in Hereford is almost completely because the candidate has talked to basically every person in the county, and labour had it so far down their list that they haven’t had support to do anything serious. Now reform has taken a chunk it’s gone from 50% tory margin down to low 30s for tories and green with momentum in the greens favour
Wild differences compared to YouGov MRP. Labour get 435 MPs here but different seats than the 425 there. Take Aylesbury as an example, going Lib Dem in this poll but YouGov have it Labour ahead. I don't know that this one is very accurate. In that seat they see Labour losing support, which seems unlikely.
Looked at some others and the swings aren't logical, they're a little strange. Small positive for Labour when Reform and Tory end up with a higher vote share then the last election.
Finchley and Golders Green is another interesting one. YouGov is seeing a drop in support for Lib Dems squeezed between Tory and Labour (and as a Tory hold). This is making it a 3 way marginal with Labour winning.
My theory is that they're overplaying the national position for Lib Dem and missing that the local support can be different and how their vote plays out. Might be the same for Reform too.
> Finchley and Golders Green is another interesting one. YouGov is seeing a drop in support for Lib Dems squeezed between Tory and Labour (and as a Tory hold). This is making it a 3 way marginal with Labour winning.
That seat in 2019 had unusual dynamics at play. It's the seat with the highest Jewish population in the UK, and the Lib Dem candidate was Luciana Berger, an ex-Labour MP, who's Jewish and left the party due to antisemitism. Momentum/rogue activists ran a very negative campaign against her, so the 2019 result may be unrepresentative.
Yep indeed and that's why I think the YouGov MRP is more accurate and that this one is unable to look at local constituencies with accuracy. The rise in vote for Lib Dems looks very wrong there.
> My theory is that they're overplaying the national position for Lib Dem and missing that the local support can be different and how their vote plays out. Might be the same for Reform too.
This model apparently incorporates things like local election results which (AFAIK) MRP polls don't, they mainly look at demographics.
At least that's the impression I got from watching the guy behind it [talk on his livestream last night](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pWPHxMSNZo).
Yes but that's not really an accurate reflection of the coming elections and is giving some results that at a local level don't make sense. I highlighted one specifically in Finchley and Golders Green to demonstrate it.
I used to be Eastleigh, now Hamble Valley and it looks like it's going to be a Tory stronghold. Why? How can anyone think, gee, more of the same please!
It's by no means a long term guarantee that this would work the way you hope it will if the UK starts to align with France and Germany on the right wing political leanings of the younger Gen Z/Gen Alpha. Interestingly there may even be signs of this beginning now with Farage and his broccoli heads on TikTok.
RN in France gained a lot of their current popularity only after they dropped the idea of leaving the EU, not in a vacuum sure other things have changed, but it's a difference with the British right
The voting age dropped from 21 to 18 in 1974, in between the _two_ elections that were held that year.
I don't know why the voting age was lowered at that point, but I guess it had the effect of widening the electorate and ensuring the second contest actually returned a different result to the first one.
What I'm interested in is the seats where the incumbent is standing down. Will they be held by the same party's new candidate?
Places like Maidenhead, for example. It was a new seat in 1997 and the now-retiring Theresa May has been their only MP. Will it be won by the new CON candidate?
I hope you're right, but my Twitter feed is going mental with Reform talking about first time voters in their 60's. If that's true, then we could be in Referendum territory.
In my experience the vast majority of “first time” voters aren’t that all but I could be wrong, but twitter has gone from being a left wing echo chamber to a right wing one so we just never know.
True, although the referendum polling didn't register the *I've never voted* contingent. There was a throw away comment by IDS on the night on BBC, where he talked about having high turn out from council estates. That's a cohort that tends to be politically disengaged, Farage is absolutely capable of getting that vote out, he's done it before.
Hopefully I'm spooked about nothing, but you never know.
That’s my preferred scenario but I think he’s going to finally win this time. Although, I do wonder how long he’d last, part of me wouldn’t be surprised if he wins but resigns within a year or two because it puts too much “constraints” on him.
Hopefully the recent Farage kissing Putins ass with even Zelensky commenting on it will take a couple percent away from reform and a decent amount go to Lib Dems. It's frustrating how Lib Dems are around 3% within being the opposition and if it wont happen now then I doubt it will be many more elections.
But with everyone else but Reform sucking when it comes to immigration I can see why Reform voters might not be deterred by anything no matter how much the rest of their policies suck. Even Lib Dems kind of dodge the whole thing completely when they can and I literally have no idea where they stand on reducing net immigration even after watching an Ed Davey interview when he was questioned on it. Apparently a big solution for him is raising the minimum wage for care workers by £2? Like whats that gonna do?
If Lib Dems openly wanted to reduce net yearly immigration to the amount just 5-10 years ago I bet they could be where Reform is right now and hugely ahead of Conservatives in terms of MPs. But nope. I don't get why either since it's not exactly controversial to want that.
I don’t mean to pick on you particularly, but this idea that because farage has said something that you, a lib dem voter, REALLY object to, means that the lib dems will pick up votes is a good example of the kind of wishful thinking that gives reform room to emerge
I do wonder if the Reform vote will cause some unexpected results - especially in former red wall seats.
There has been assumption that Tory voters would switch back to Labour - but what if they go Reform instead? Reform could end up splitting the anti Tory vote.
Think this is a super fair prediction tbh. Have to wait for Survation (hah!) to publish their second, maybe final? MRP to really get a lock on if anything lower than this is plausible for the Tories.
The sad reality if the Tories end up with even 100ish seats is that it just ends up with the party lurching to the far right. They'll still have the client media and their guaranteed TV spots every week, meaning they get a path to rebuild too.
To give you an idea of the magnitude of a projected 276 Conservative losses, here is an AI generated news report of the 1906 general election when Arthur Balfour as Conservative Prime Minister: "The Daily Gazette : January 26, 1906
The Whirlwind Election: An Epochal Conservative Defeat
In what can only be described as a political cataclysm, the results of the General Election have resounded across the nation with a thunderous roar, shaking the very foundations of our political landscape. The Conservative Party, which has held the reins of power with confidence and command, has been met with an unprecedented defeat, losing a staggering 211 seats. This seismic shift has not spared even the highest echelons of leadership, as Prime Minister Arthur Balfour himself has faced the ignominy of losing his seat.
Words scarcely suffice to capture the magnitude of this upheaval. Our nation stands in a state of collective astonishment, for never in our contemporary history has there been such a precipitous and profound change in the political tides. The House of Commons, once a bastion of Conservative dominance, has been transformed into a stronghold of Liberal ascendency.
It is a rare occasion when one must concede the limits of language to convey the depth of a momentous event. This is such an occasion. The sheer scale of the Conservative defeat defies easy description and evokes a sense of historic gravity that will undoubtedly reverberate through the ages.
Prime Minister Balfour, a figure of significant stature and intellect, now faces the bitter reality of political mortality. His leadership, once marked by resolute policies and unyielding principles, has been decisively repudiated by the electorate. The Liberals, under the banner of new leadership and renewed vision, have captured the public's imagination and trust.
Reflecting upon this extraordinary election, one is compelled to ponder the future. Will such a dramatic political reversal ever occur again? It is difficult to envisage a recurrence of this scale within our lifetimes. As I pen these words, I am struck by the thought that if such an event were to transpire again, it would not be my son reporting on it, nor my grandson, nor even my great-grandson. Indeed, it may well fall to my great-great-grandson to witness and chronicle such an epochal shift.
In the annals of British politics, the election of 1906 will stand as a testament to the unpredictable and oftentimes tumultuous nature of democratic governance. As the nation absorbs the full import of this moment, we are reminded of the power vested in the collective will of the people. The electorate has spoken with clarity and conviction, and their mandate has set us on a new and uncharted course.
Only time will reveal the true implications of this historic election. For now, we watch with bated breath as the Liberal Party takes up the mantle of leadership, ushering in an era that promises change and perhaps, hope"
This would be the largest number of Conservatives losses EVER
I think that unless we start seeing loads of arrests come out of the Gambling Commission investigation in the next two weeks, this will be an accurate representation of the results.
I also think the shift towards Reform is being understated. If the gap widens by a few percentage points, they could become the opposition.
This seems more accurate. People will keep jerking it to a nub over zErO sEaTs LaDs Le FuNnY jOkE, but the Tories will in all likelihood still be the opposition in July. Which is a good thing IMO. The Tories need to do some soul searching, but destroying them only to be replaced by a right win party with zero institutional memory or experience in how to run a country is bad. Pluralism is key to a healthy democracy.
Disagree. If the Tories still have "experience in how to run a country" - and they arguably don't anymore, since Brexit and Boris - then it's only experience of how to make rich people even richer while keeping the rest of the nation just about running on fumes.
I do want them destroyed.
I'd say the real key to a healthy democracy isn't pluralism, it's political parties who actually represent the wishes of their constituents. Right now Reform is the only party who represent millions upon millions of people who are **desperately fucking sick of the huge number of immigrants**.
reform don't have a clue. they're a bunch of racists and bigots who want the world to go back to when you could slap your secretary on the arse and they'd say thank you.
if the tories die then it'll be Labour running the country for a thousand years. you'll never get 40% to vote for the politics of Nigel Farage. he's a one trick pony and reasonable people see him for what he is. it's only head bangers who think he's actually got the goods.
Nothing of the sort. Many young people aren’t voting. Many Muslims aren’t voting or if mobilised split amongst independents, decreasing the Lab vote either way. So that will mean a smaller Lab majority and larger traditional conservative turn out.
Things to watch -
1/ will the Gaza anti Labour vote fell the party in Muslim seats or will the independents running split the vote (Blackburn).
2/ will the failure of young people showing up destroy Bristol for the greens?
3/ will the conservative vote stay Tory or become a Reform vote.
My prediction: 80-140 Lab majority. But some Muslim scalps will include Jess Phillips in Birmingham and LD or Reform take Tory seats.
YouGov have Blackburn very strongly Labour with 47% of the vote. Same with Birmingham Yardley. Think you're overplaying the possibility of change in those constituencies.
Polls seem to suggest 60% of 18-25 year olds are saying they'll definitely vote. Significantly higher than the 50% polling and turnout for that age group in 2019.
Another thing to consider though is disillusioned Tories staying home. Usually they have excellent turnout. They may not switch to Reform or Lib Dem or Labour… but a lot of them are just fed up. I predict traditional Tory turnout to be way down. Many will sit this one out.
And that’s what’s going to truly kill them.
(Eleven. Seats.)
Snapshot of _Britain Predicts/New Statesman Model Projection June 22nd: LAB 435 MPs (+235 vs 2019), CON 96 (-276), LDEM 66 (+55), SNP 24 (-24), REF 6 (+6), GRN 4 (+3), PC 3 (+1)_ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1804830183192428753) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/BritainElects/status/1804830183192428753/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1804830183192428753) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1804830183192428753) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
This isn't an opinion poll, for those confused. This is a model that uses all the reputable opinion polls as its basis and then tries to create a pattern from them. Whether it's accurate or not we won't know till after the election, but it does have some experienced people behind it.
The TV exit polls announced on the stroke of 10pm on election night have been getting very good in recent years. In particular, the exit poll announced in 2005 was almost completely perfect and was a gnat's hair away from being the actual result. 2015 was a bit dodgy though and didn't spot Cameron's majority.
Was a little dodgy but Professor Curtice had warned of the majority from the word go, so I’d mark that down as a known fault which has likely been ironed out. They were right when it came to the most hotly contested aspects which were the Lib Dem collapse and the failure of opinion polls.
For those interested, the 3 Green gains are North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley (gains from Conservative) and Bristol Central (gain from Labour), while they hold Brighton Pavilion. These are all four seats that the Greens were targeting this election. The 6 Reform gains (perhaps obviously) include Clacton and Boston & Skegness, but they also pick up Mid Buckinghamshire [candidate is Stephanie Harwood], Hornchurch & Upminster [Nicholas Palmer], South Basildon & East Thurrock [James McMurdock] and Castle Point [Keiron McGill]. All gains from Conservative. Labour regains Rochdale and Islington North from Galloway and Corbyn respectively.
corbyn doesn’t appear to have been included in the model
Ben Walker from Britain Elects went through this last night [on his YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/live/9pWPHxMSNZo?si=2nrEU9-Rvtrl-t3w). He says his model currently doesn't account for Muslim voters who may have been put off Labour by Gaza etc but he's working on it with urgency.
I'll watch that tomorrow. This forecast is pretty whack overall so I'm interested to hear what he has to say. He always seems pretty sensible whenever I see interviews with him. If he's got this one right, that will be massively impressive.
Would have thought one of the reform gains would be Ashfield but seems to be a labour gain.
The Ashfield Independents are a wildcard in that constituency as well.
I think that’s a combination of Ashfield Independents getting a huge chunk of the Reform-leaning vote and relatively tight margins just keep them out. Like Great Yarmouth, a combined Reform-Tory vote of 36.6% would trump the 29.1% of Labour.
Hang on, I live in Mid Buckinghamshire. I know it's a safe Tory seat (or at least it used to be) but I assumed the main threat came from the Lib Dems - I never thought Reform stood a serious chance. It's mostly wealthy rural retirees around here, which is a demographic that heavily skews Tory but I assume is quite different from a strong Reform target like Clacton. Mid Bucks isn't even on this list of Reform's top 28 target seats: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/04/seats-reform-threat-general-election-right-wing-tory-votes/ Can this poll be trusted? Where's the evidence that Reform are popular in Mid Buckinghamshire?
YouGov MRP gives you a very comfortable hold for Tories in that seat. I'd take that one as more reliable as the methodology here isn't at constituency level and taking things into account that are likely to be unlikely (national swings playing out at local levels, using local election results).
I gotta admit, I was a bit thrown by that myself. Apparently, this isn’t really a poll, but rather a model based on all the polls to level them out. I also don’t know how accurate it is, but it’s apparently been accurate in the past.
Yeah it also has Labour in third place here ahead of the Lib Dems which I think would be a surprise to the local Labour candidate as Labour barely seem to be campaigning around here, and the Lib Dems are promoting themselves as the only viable chance of beating the Tories. Either this poll is very wrong, or we are living in extremely strange political times. Both are plausible.
Struggle to believe that Reform could gain those seats but not Great Yarmouth
Looks like it’s close there. It has a Labour gain on 29.1%, Tories second with 26.2% (a loss of 39.6%!) and Reform third with 24.9%. A unified Reform-Tory vote would regain it.
Hopefully the Labour candidate wins, we need another Keir on the green benches.
I really don’t see very much of that coming to pass. Whatever the methodology for this model it seems to skew heavily for the smaller parties compared to all the other polls I’ve seen.
Not much has been written about how much stronger Reform support is in Essex, compared to elsewhere in the home counties. Three (plus one now in London but historically Essex) or their six seats there.
Not surprised Bristol Central is going Green. Marvin Rees fucked up our city as mayor and did such a piss-poor job that we voted to abolish the position entirely. A terrible mayor is how Labour managed to burn a lot of support in Bristol.
I sincerely doubt Corbyn loses
Last polling I saw, he will lose, although it was very close.
the greens are an utter embarrassment and if they get seats and a platform for people to actually hear their ideas beyond green = environment :) they will be wiped out horse-shoe with farage on supporting russia through wanting to leave nato
I'm voting Labour, but I think the silent Reform vote will shock people.
Amongst people I know which are predominantly Conservative voters there is an overwhelming majority for Reform. That is one thing, what is really shocking is that amongst those I know that have never voted they're suddenly aware of Farage and voting Reform. This isn't me being unaware of previously held beliefs, this is simply Farage having cut though. My brain is telling me 3-4 Reform seats but my gut is telling me something weird is happening.
The amount of reform postal votes I saw on twitter has been crazy! Reform will do really well in this election mainly because of Farage’s momentum
there’s a lot of reform bots on social media lol
Well yes I am aware but I am talking about postal votes on twitter and I can check their profile to guess if it is a bot or not.
Tbh I imagine the Conservatives are over the moon that they didn't crack down on postal votes, imagine how bad their polling will be after just under 2 weeks of gamblegate, they're lucky some of their voters have already posted their vote!
Yes not thanks to the privatization of Royal mail, the odds of the votes arriving on time are not that great...
Social media is a bad indication. It seems that Reform supporters have been told to spam social media as much as possible. Even my local Facebook group which saw nothing more interesting than ads for car valeting has been completely taken over by them.
This. These polls struggle to account for smaller parties votes. And I've seen seats that are safe as safe Tory seats going by massive swings (30/40). I feel like the models cant account for that level of difference. But also from the sounds of it. There's alot of factoring in to account for shy Tories etc. so, taking into account the direction of travel. May actually be worse for the Tories.
I have heard other reports of farage having a weird effect on people's guts.
:,D
My worry is that reform will establish themselves as the clear alternative to cons this govt and by the next election when labour inevitably do absolutely nothing to fix the country the pendulum will swing back and reform will win the election.
The reform peak is 25-30%. They can break through into the disillusioned Tory and Labour voters to a certain extent, but when push comes to shove, the majority of the country do see them for what they truly are
the majority of the country have voted tory (and brexit) for the last 14 years but somehow it’s the party’s fault and not the public.
The majority of the country have not voted Tory in the last 14 years Even just looking at those who voted - 2010 - Conservative 36%, Labour 29%, LibDem 23% 2014 - Conservative 37%, Labour 30%, LibDem 8% 2017 - Conservative 42%, Labour 40%, Libdem 8% 2019 - Conservative - 44%, Labour 32%, LibDen 7% No of which were a majority of voters
No party has received a majority of votes since WW2. The only government that has had a majority of votes was the 2010 coalition, but that was of course not a single party.
Cons was still the leading vote regardless
Which is not what you said.
still the leading vote
I'm not denying that. Again. You said "the majority" of the UK voted for the Tory's. Which is undeniably false.
> the majority of the country do see them for what they truly are No, most are just programmed to vote for the uniparty courtesy of FPTP. Perhaps this will change someday..
Given how everyone else is sliding to the far right I worry that that's what's happening.
He’s ’cut through’ because he is the only person actually talking about immigration… Even people who don’t give a shit about politics aren’t blind.
Rishi talked about immigration at the debate - he asked Keir what to do about it and neither had any clue.
Reform don't seem to have a clue either tbh.
No one does, because the elephant in the room is we need it
That argument is a decade out of date. In 2010 economists were arguing that the current high level of immigration may need to increase by 10, 20 or even - at the highest end - 30% in order to cover the demographic shift of the UK. It has increased by 300%. There is no sound economic argument for this.
The problem with that analysis is we left the EU. But no one wants to talk about that. We needed a 30% increase in immigration, but we traded EU migration for non-EU migration. And the non-EU migrants want to bring their families with them; they're paying far more (so are richer and more likely to have a family), they can't travel as easily back to visit their families (and risk being not allowed back in if they leave), and with such a big investment they're looking to settle in the UK more permanently. So 30% more workers, plus 200% because everyone is bringing 1-3 people with them. The rest are the Hong Kong/Ukraine schemes, plus the increase in students due to the Government cutting their funds.
I'm not saying all of the immigration is needed, but we do need some and I expect if you talk to the people likely to vote for 0 immigration reform, they won't understand that some immigration is good and that's an important distinction.
Reform aren't calling for zero immigration, they are calling for net zero, or in other words about 400k per year. Please define your definition of "some", because 400k sounds like a hell of a lot to me
I might be mistaken, thought I saw somewhere that they wanted literal zero?
Sounds like you don't understand Reform's immigration policy.
illegal immigrants cost us a couple billion each year, but it pales in comparison to the amount boomers are stealing through the state pension. somehow, nobody wants to speak about it.
They're stealing even more when you consider their rent seeking stranglehold on the planning system. Paying over the odds in a supply-constricted housing market, lost growth and hence lost wages from inability to build, borrowing for elderly welfare that will ultimately fall on taxpayers. So much of our economy is built around siphoning wealth away from workers and towards the geriatric.
Sorry, how are boomers "stealing" a state pension that they are legally entitled to and have paid NI for the past 40+ years on? You may disagree and want to change that, but they're not stealing anything.
They've paid in nowhere near close to what they're taking out.
Not the question. Are they thieves, as in likely to be arrested for theft at some point soon?
They're stealing from the next generation who are paying through the nose (see also housing) and won't see anything close for their own retirement. Boomers have torn up the social contract.
First of all when they paid NI, they were funding the NHS and Welfare, not the state pension. Even if they were, compare what they paid in and what they receive
You can dress up what they paid and what it was used for all you like, the state pension as it stands is a legal entitlement. No one is stealing anything and your use of that term undermines whatever student politics you're grasping at. Both my parents (ex nurse and ex police) are of state pension age. They get the state pension alongside their (modest) workplace and private pensions. Are they thieves?
We’re in for a Brexit-styled shock I think, this all feels very familiar
Not sure reform voters are silent tbh, they seem pretty vocal.
Imagine if they’re an iceberg though. Shouty on top, but lurking underneath…. It’s a Nigeslide!
Well we are fucked if that’s the case, but I don’t think he’s as popular as people think. I think 13-14% is the realistic level he’s at
I reckon they’ll get about 16-18% and the Conservatives within about 2% of that. (Mainly due to lower than usual turnout from their disillusioned base.) Definitely going to be the most interesting election night in… ever… So many seats will be pretty close 2-3-4 way seats on the night. Prediction 1: SHOCKING results!! (Coz the media love a nice shock.) Prediction 2: The Conservatives only win 11 seats.
Even in the traditionally very safe Tory seat of Salisbury, I reckon it's going to be 20-30% between the big 4 parties. The frustrating thing is there's no clear tactical vote here.
My folks live in a nearby “safe” Tory seat and the vibes I’m getting are not good for the Conservatives. The oldies are just “fed up”. My folks will probably vote Lib Dem because that’s the best tactical vote against the Cons who they are just sick of. They’ve voted for the Conservatives many times in the last, but not anymore. I think many of their friends are the same. Some will stay home. Some will switch. The ones who are staying blue are genuinely shy conservatives lol. We’ll see on the day, but I’m feeling a much bigger upset than almost anyone is predicting. (11. Seats.)
Same in Maidstone where my parents are. Theres a whiff of a suspicion that Labour might nick it.
As long as Labour win like 500 I’ll be happy with that lmao
Heck yes!
15% is Reform's bare minimum floor. It'll almost certainly be higher.
The thing is. How many are real and how many are bots
That’s fair but then all we have to go on is polling which for all parties is showing massive differences. We might have silent reform voters but I do wonder if there are a number of silent labour/lib dem voters as well, especially in those traditional rural tories seats. Getting hit from both ends by silent voters.
That's actually interesting. I didn't think about them been shy.
Some boomers I speak to say they are voting reform and people they speak to are voting Reform, shy Tories are now shy Reformers.
I think so as well. I have a feeling there will be a lot of shocked people, and I'm afraid they are going to win a number of seats, and put some real nutters in. I'm also afraid that the Tories will try to strike a deal with them and put some in the Shadow Cabinet, which will turn Parliament into a shit show.
If Reform do any kind of deal with the Torries, they are finished, the entire point in them is a fight against the establishment, jump into bed with the establishment and they are over; won’t happen.
Reform are so far outside the normal range that I can't see why they'd have quiet voters. Their voters are shouting proudly about it, and I can't see many votes from the rest of the mainstream going that way.
Depends where. In London, you keep voting Reform/Tory to yourself, lest you be on the receiving end of some rabid vitriol.
Right, (and indeed, the inverse is true in other parts of the country) - but if we are talking about "silent" in terms of polling, why keep that quiet? The MRP boffin isn't going to toss his mcflurry at you in the street.
It's not the boffin that's the problem. It's the thought the data might leak. There's some data point out there linking your name to Reform. Hell, if I supported reform and my office found out I'd either get fired or a lot of abuse. Doesn't seem very likely to happen, but why take the chance? What do you get out of being honest?
No political poll Ive ever been asked to take has asked for any identifiable information though, they'll just ask if you're registered and intend to vote - and which constituency sometimes. In fact, the only time your vote and identifiable information would be put together is on the actual polling card, so if people are so ashamed of voting Reform (which, raises a load of other questions) then they should tell the anonymised pollsters they'll vote Reform and then not do it on July 4th.
Like I said not likely. But people are kinda understandably more paranoid these days. If you were invited by email, then there's probably a pseudomonised link in the system somewhere. The software probably scoops up your IP. Possibly Mac code. Maybe your postcode is in there somewhere? Why take the chance?
Agreed, the reform vote will either be nowhere, or way higher than we expect, and I'm leaning towards the latter. The next few years will be important to see how reform will go, personally I think that if the Tories are not destroyed then Reform will get stronger. If the Tories are sent to 3rd party status then Reform will likely die on the vine as they need a more mainstream party to deflect the scrutiny they cannot stand under. It's all the more reason to vote against the Tories tactically to get rid of as many of their MPs as possible and cut off the advance of reform.
Reform will definitely get more of the popular vote over conservatives but less seats because of FPTP. However reform is not silent at all. They are very loud on social media!
They will easily match the 2015 UKIP vote tally IMO, and that was one of Farage's objectives. Farage himself is also a dead cert to finally win a seat in the HoC.
I have the opposite opinion that the Reform vote will shift Tory on election day. Sunak to remind everyone he will step down as leader if he loses the election. Then it's not for him you're directly voting.
I think some will. But some will stay. Which at this point is enough to hurt them
I think the silent Tory vote is larger this year than ever. I bet loads will go to the ballot box and vote Conservative and never admit it. I'm sceptical of any poll putting Conservatives below 150 let alone 100 seats. Wouldn't be surprised if they have close to 200, and Sunak is furious as he planned on pissong off to California.
No way they get 200.
I think it's going to be very hard to predict and just has to fully pick up in polling.
Been doorstepping for Labour in East Anglia. Reform are likely to come 2nd by a clear margin in my town and their supporters aren't particularly silent, if anything they're proud about it. Many shy Tories though.
The silent racists you mean
The Tory voters will be the silent ones, not Reform
> I think the silent Reform vote will shock people. Never underestimate the quiet bat(shit) people. Edit: lol, touched a nerve with some reform lurkers
>South West Norfolk: >Con 27.8 >Ref 26.0 The model predicts a pretty good result for Reform in South West Norfolk...Liz Truss's seat. I doubt that she will lose as it is extremely safe for the Tories, but it's interesting nonetheless. >Richmond and Northallerton: >Con 27.8 >Lab 23.1 >Ref 19.5 >LDem 11.3 >Oth 11.2 The race for Sunak's seat might be closer than we think. I find it really interesting how the vote share for other candidates is at 11.2%, that is really high. >Maidenhead: >LDem 33.9 >Con 32.0 Maidenhead is going to the Lib Dems according the model which was, until the dissolution of Parliament, Theresa May's seat.
It's a pity there aren't more Lib-Labour electoral pacts to oust prominent Conservatives. Although I do look forward to the impending by-election in Richmond.
What do you mean by the by-election in Richmond ? Out of the loop
They're implying that Sunak will stand down after the election and there will be a by-election for his seat.
Maidenhead used to be my parents constituency, and I can't help but feel this is in no small part down to the fact that Theresa May is standing down as well. She was a very well liked local MP and to be fair to her was still active there even when she was PM, and had she remained I could have seen them retaining it because she was at least one of the slightly more sane Tories.
The prediction for Beaconsfield, traditionally the 5st safest Tory seat where they get \~60% of the vote, is both exciting for how close it will be to them loosing & worrying how close Reform are if accurate. Hoping the Lib Deb result is an underestimate as they didn't stand last time |PARTY|PCT.|CHG.| |:-|:-|:-| |Con|25.4 |- 30.1| |LDem|21.7 |+ 21.7| |Ref|19.3 |+ 19.3| |Lab|17.0 |+ 7.1| |Oth|10.0 |- 21.0|
The seat of Joy Morrissey a potential future leader.
Beaconsfield resident here. The libs stood aside as Dominic Cummings stood as an independent. This time round Labour aren't really door knocking but the Cons, Ref and Libs are carpet bombing leaflets.
It was Dominic Grieve not Cummings, Lib Dems liked Grieve, not so much Cummings
(I'm assuming you mean Dominic Grieve) I've had 3 leaflets from the Lib Dems, 2 from the Cons & 1 from Reform. Lib Dems & Cons got theirs out before the postal vote ballots. Nothing at all from Labour yet, only reason I know their candidates name was the postal ballot paper. Anecdotally there are quite a few Lib Dem garden signs/posters about, when there aren't normally any. Though I'm in the more historically lib dem friendly ward, the only ward Grieve won in last time.
Everyone’s going to talk about the conservatives but the SNP losing half of their seats, including all of Glasgow would make for quite a night (and personally quite satisfying). Most Scottish seats are very marginal so honestly these seat projections have quite a wide margin of error there. Couple of interesting Green seats and Reform gaining a London seat is a first too.
True Scottish central belt is highly marginal, i reckon the best result of the snp will be early 30s, which will still be a loss for them, worst case is mid teens. Either way I doubt they will be beat pleased with the result.
There are indeed polls showing the SNP losing every seat in Glasgow and the central belt being a toss-up. There was also another one showing Joanna Cherry being left as their sole Edinburgh MP. Western Isles is going Labour for sure. It's been polling red for ages, plus the vote for the new SNP candidate will be split with Angus MacNeil.
I know the green seat in Hereford is almost completely because the candidate has talked to basically every person in the county, and labour had it so far down their list that they haven’t had support to do anything serious. Now reform has taken a chunk it’s gone from 50% tory margin down to low 30s for tories and green with momentum in the greens favour
Wild differences compared to YouGov MRP. Labour get 435 MPs here but different seats than the 425 there. Take Aylesbury as an example, going Lib Dem in this poll but YouGov have it Labour ahead. I don't know that this one is very accurate. In that seat they see Labour losing support, which seems unlikely. Looked at some others and the swings aren't logical, they're a little strange. Small positive for Labour when Reform and Tory end up with a higher vote share then the last election. Finchley and Golders Green is another interesting one. YouGov is seeing a drop in support for Lib Dems squeezed between Tory and Labour (and as a Tory hold). This is making it a 3 way marginal with Labour winning. My theory is that they're overplaying the national position for Lib Dem and missing that the local support can be different and how their vote plays out. Might be the same for Reform too.
> Finchley and Golders Green is another interesting one. YouGov is seeing a drop in support for Lib Dems squeezed between Tory and Labour (and as a Tory hold). This is making it a 3 way marginal with Labour winning. That seat in 2019 had unusual dynamics at play. It's the seat with the highest Jewish population in the UK, and the Lib Dem candidate was Luciana Berger, an ex-Labour MP, who's Jewish and left the party due to antisemitism. Momentum/rogue activists ran a very negative campaign against her, so the 2019 result may be unrepresentative.
Yep indeed and that's why I think the YouGov MRP is more accurate and that this one is unable to look at local constituencies with accuracy. The rise in vote for Lib Dems looks very wrong there.
> My theory is that they're overplaying the national position for Lib Dem and missing that the local support can be different and how their vote plays out. Might be the same for Reform too. This model apparently incorporates things like local election results which (AFAIK) MRP polls don't, they mainly look at demographics. At least that's the impression I got from watching the guy behind it [talk on his livestream last night](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pWPHxMSNZo).
Yes but that's not really an accurate reflection of the coming elections and is giving some results that at a local level don't make sense. I highlighted one specifically in Finchley and Golders Green to demonstrate it.
One more heave and we're [here.](https://imgur.com/a/se61mDJ)
I used to be Eastleigh, now Hamble Valley and it looks like it's going to be a Tory stronghold. Why? How can anyone think, gee, more of the same please!
I’m next door in Winchester and there’s lots of shy Tories in the villages… it’s going to be much closer between blue and yellow here.
The fact the conservatives will get even than many seats after the betting scandal is concerning about people’s judgment.
I wonder who is still voting for them
boomers, who else. for context boomer polling (65+) show that over 60% will vote tory or reform. We need to abolish their pension
This is why I think voting age being reduced to 16/17 has a lot of merit. Much more people to vote against the old fucks.
It's by no means a long term guarantee that this would work the way you hope it will if the UK starts to align with France and Germany on the right wing political leanings of the younger Gen Z/Gen Alpha. Interestingly there may even be signs of this beginning now with Farage and his broccoli heads on TikTok.
RN in France gained a lot of their current popularity only after they dropped the idea of leaving the EU, not in a vacuum sure other things have changed, but it's a difference with the British right
You're assuming that 16 and 17 year olds will vote the way you want them to.
Not the way I want no, I just believe the youth are far more likely to vote progressively.
You're assuming that 16 and 17 year olds will vote ~~the way you want them to.~~
The voting age dropped from 21 to 18 in 1974, in between the _two_ elections that were held that year. I don't know why the voting age was lowered at that point, but I guess it had the effect of widening the electorate and ensuring the second contest actually returned a different result to the first one.
Do take into account the marginality of these seats. You're still right. But if the bulk are marginal I am happy
I don't think the betting scandal would have come through the polls yet, which means it won't be accounted for in the model
The previous worst result ever for the Tories is 156 seats (1906 election). Less than 100 seats would break that record by a wide margin.
That’s pretty good for Reform, anything over 7 seats would be a fantastic result for them
What I'm interested in is the seats where the incumbent is standing down. Will they be held by the same party's new candidate? Places like Maidenhead, for example. It was a new seat in 1997 and the now-retiring Theresa May has been their only MP. Will it be won by the new CON candidate?
Can’t see reform winning more than two tbh but I’m ready to be wrong
I hope you're right, but my Twitter feed is going mental with Reform talking about first time voters in their 60's. If that's true, then we could be in Referendum territory.
In my experience the vast majority of “first time” voters aren’t that all but I could be wrong, but twitter has gone from being a left wing echo chamber to a right wing one so we just never know.
True, although the referendum polling didn't register the *I've never voted* contingent. There was a throw away comment by IDS on the night on BBC, where he talked about having high turn out from council estates. That's a cohort that tends to be politically disengaged, Farage is absolutely capable of getting that vote out, he's done it before. Hopefully I'm spooked about nothing, but you never know.
I think 2-4
I'd find it amusing if they win a couple but lose Clacton
That’s my preferred scenario but I think he’s going to finally win this time. Although, I do wonder how long he’d last, part of me wouldn’t be surprised if he wins but resigns within a year or two because it puts too much “constraints” on him.
Hopefully the recent Farage kissing Putins ass with even Zelensky commenting on it will take a couple percent away from reform and a decent amount go to Lib Dems. It's frustrating how Lib Dems are around 3% within being the opposition and if it wont happen now then I doubt it will be many more elections. But with everyone else but Reform sucking when it comes to immigration I can see why Reform voters might not be deterred by anything no matter how much the rest of their policies suck. Even Lib Dems kind of dodge the whole thing completely when they can and I literally have no idea where they stand on reducing net immigration even after watching an Ed Davey interview when he was questioned on it. Apparently a big solution for him is raising the minimum wage for care workers by £2? Like whats that gonna do? If Lib Dems openly wanted to reduce net yearly immigration to the amount just 5-10 years ago I bet they could be where Reform is right now and hugely ahead of Conservatives in terms of MPs. But nope. I don't get why either since it's not exactly controversial to want that.
I don’t mean to pick on you particularly, but this idea that because farage has said something that you, a lib dem voter, REALLY object to, means that the lib dems will pick up votes is a good example of the kind of wishful thinking that gives reform room to emerge
I do wonder if the Reform vote will cause some unexpected results - especially in former red wall seats. There has been assumption that Tory voters would switch back to Labour - but what if they go Reform instead? Reform could end up splitting the anti Tory vote.
Looking at the map there appear to be quite a few that are close for Reform, especially near East Anglia, maybe 3-5% more and they go CON>REF
Shocker is Mid Bucks, projected for reform. Don’t quite think that is right
Think this is a super fair prediction tbh. Have to wait for Survation (hah!) to publish their second, maybe final? MRP to really get a lock on if anything lower than this is plausible for the Tories. The sad reality if the Tories end up with even 100ish seats is that it just ends up with the party lurching to the far right. They'll still have the client media and their guaranteed TV spots every week, meaning they get a path to rebuild too.
To give you an idea of the magnitude of a projected 276 Conservative losses, here is an AI generated news report of the 1906 general election when Arthur Balfour as Conservative Prime Minister: "The Daily Gazette : January 26, 1906 The Whirlwind Election: An Epochal Conservative Defeat In what can only be described as a political cataclysm, the results of the General Election have resounded across the nation with a thunderous roar, shaking the very foundations of our political landscape. The Conservative Party, which has held the reins of power with confidence and command, has been met with an unprecedented defeat, losing a staggering 211 seats. This seismic shift has not spared even the highest echelons of leadership, as Prime Minister Arthur Balfour himself has faced the ignominy of losing his seat. Words scarcely suffice to capture the magnitude of this upheaval. Our nation stands in a state of collective astonishment, for never in our contemporary history has there been such a precipitous and profound change in the political tides. The House of Commons, once a bastion of Conservative dominance, has been transformed into a stronghold of Liberal ascendency. It is a rare occasion when one must concede the limits of language to convey the depth of a momentous event. This is such an occasion. The sheer scale of the Conservative defeat defies easy description and evokes a sense of historic gravity that will undoubtedly reverberate through the ages. Prime Minister Balfour, a figure of significant stature and intellect, now faces the bitter reality of political mortality. His leadership, once marked by resolute policies and unyielding principles, has been decisively repudiated by the electorate. The Liberals, under the banner of new leadership and renewed vision, have captured the public's imagination and trust. Reflecting upon this extraordinary election, one is compelled to ponder the future. Will such a dramatic political reversal ever occur again? It is difficult to envisage a recurrence of this scale within our lifetimes. As I pen these words, I am struck by the thought that if such an event were to transpire again, it would not be my son reporting on it, nor my grandson, nor even my great-grandson. Indeed, it may well fall to my great-great-grandson to witness and chronicle such an epochal shift. In the annals of British politics, the election of 1906 will stand as a testament to the unpredictable and oftentimes tumultuous nature of democratic governance. As the nation absorbs the full import of this moment, we are reminded of the power vested in the collective will of the people. The electorate has spoken with clarity and conviction, and their mandate has set us on a new and uncharted course. Only time will reveal the true implications of this historic election. For now, we watch with bated breath as the Liberal Party takes up the mantle of leadership, ushering in an era that promises change and perhaps, hope" This would be the largest number of Conservatives losses EVER
Horsham going yellow would be a seismic shock. That seat has ALWAYS been Tory.
I think that unless we start seeing loads of arrests come out of the Gambling Commission investigation in the next two weeks, this will be an accurate representation of the results. I also think the shift towards Reform is being understated. If the gap widens by a few percentage points, they could become the opposition.
Still too much blue on that map, pump those anti blue numbers.
Is the second place party by default the opposition or could LibDem & SNP enter some sort of agreement to be the opposition
This seems more accurate. People will keep jerking it to a nub over zErO sEaTs LaDs Le FuNnY jOkE, but the Tories will in all likelihood still be the opposition in July. Which is a good thing IMO. The Tories need to do some soul searching, but destroying them only to be replaced by a right win party with zero institutional memory or experience in how to run a country is bad. Pluralism is key to a healthy democracy.
Disagree. If the Tories still have "experience in how to run a country" - and they arguably don't anymore, since Brexit and Boris - then it's only experience of how to make rich people even richer while keeping the rest of the nation just about running on fumes. I do want them destroyed. I'd say the real key to a healthy democracy isn't pluralism, it's political parties who actually represent the wishes of their constituents. Right now Reform is the only party who represent millions upon millions of people who are **desperately fucking sick of the huge number of immigrants**.
reform don't have a clue. they're a bunch of racists and bigots who want the world to go back to when you could slap your secretary on the arse and they'd say thank you. if the tories die then it'll be Labour running the country for a thousand years. you'll never get 40% to vote for the politics of Nigel Farage. he's a one trick pony and reasonable people see him for what he is. it's only head bangers who think he's actually got the goods.
Nothing of the sort. Many young people aren’t voting. Many Muslims aren’t voting or if mobilised split amongst independents, decreasing the Lab vote either way. So that will mean a smaller Lab majority and larger traditional conservative turn out. Things to watch - 1/ will the Gaza anti Labour vote fell the party in Muslim seats or will the independents running split the vote (Blackburn). 2/ will the failure of young people showing up destroy Bristol for the greens? 3/ will the conservative vote stay Tory or become a Reform vote. My prediction: 80-140 Lab majority. But some Muslim scalps will include Jess Phillips in Birmingham and LD or Reform take Tory seats.
YouGov have Blackburn very strongly Labour with 47% of the vote. Same with Birmingham Yardley. Think you're overplaying the possibility of change in those constituencies.
Polls seem to suggest 60% of 18-25 year olds are saying they'll definitely vote. Significantly higher than the 50% polling and turnout for that age group in 2019.
Another thing to consider though is disillusioned Tories staying home. Usually they have excellent turnout. They may not switch to Reform or Lib Dem or Labour… but a lot of them are just fed up. I predict traditional Tory turnout to be way down. Many will sit this one out. And that’s what’s going to truly kill them. (Eleven. Seats.)
The Heritage Party are standing in my seat. I've just looked at their website - [they're mostly mental](https://heritageparty.org/manifesto/).