Snapshot of _Electcalculus MRP poll projects that the Liberal Democrats will be forming the official opposition_ :
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Reform get 18 MPs according to this. That's got to be their highest forecast number by some distance?
Don't see how the Tories try to unite the right with an outcome like that. More likely to see a 50/50 partnership than the Tories absorbing Reform.
I'd argue that's a good thing in the long run. They'd still be a minority and when people are drawn to the extremes due a hideous lack of representative governance, including them somewhat lays the groundwork for a more moderate and useful co-opertive minority parliament to emerge and reduces the influence of people looking to foment extreme political opinions, eroding their base in the longer term.
Are they really the extreme?
You have labour who are centrist to center left
The Tories are saying they are center right but all their actions are pretty much what labour are promising.
Then you have Reform who are just promising centre right politics like low tax and controlled immigration. Effectively what the Tories promised in all their last election wins.
They are far from the BNP.
Another way of interpreting this though is that the Overton window has shifted considerably to the right. You say Labour are centre left, but economically their manifesto doesn’t differ hugely from the Conservatives. There is no real intention at any form of wealth redistribution (as there was in Corbyn’s manifesto, a focus on taxing higher earners). There is no real emphasis on regulating the financial markets either.
On things like immigration, welfare, disability benefits etc, Starmer and Rishi aren’t worlds apart either. Rishi last night was more confident in saying he would cut benefits to those not prepared to work, but Starmer still had little sympathy for those on benefits. Any actual difference is saved for issues such as the trans debate, which whilst I have huge sympathy and complete support for the trans community, is an issue which only effects 0.5% of the population. On the issues which effect the majority, they more or less agree on a traditional right wing stance.
You say Reform isn’t far right, and you’re right in that the definition is vague enough to say it with certainty, but it’s clear to see why the label gets thrown around. It’s led by a man who campaigned for Brexit with a poster which mirrored a Nazi poster targeted at the Jewish community, and 40 of its members are social media friends with a known public fascist. The Deputy leader said the party would cut benefits to those who couldn’t find a job in 4 months, not explaining what they were expected to do… after the 4 months.
You can try and make out the far right label is unwarranted, but for most it’s quite easy to see the connection.
Labour is losing votes directly to Reform. And I think it's partly a function of having moved too far to the right on economics. If voters decide that economics aren't really at stake in this election, then you get to make the decision solely on culture wars and immigration, and that plays greatly to Reform's advantage.
So the only thing on reform policy you said is this:
"The Deputy leader said the party would cut benefits to those who couldn’t find a job in 4 months, not explaining what they were expected to do… after the 4 months."
Is telling people they need to find a job within 4 months far right now?
If you can't find a job in 4 months you're either:
1. Not trying
2. Looking for jobs that don't exist
3. Looking for jobs you're not qualified to do
Cutting people’s benefits, which would be the only thing stopping them from starving/their children from starving, yes, most would consider far-right.
In Britain, one indicator of where you lie on the political spectrum has always been in relation to your views on the welfare state. If you believe that too much of it leads to something like the ‘underclass’ forming, eg Charles Murray/Thatcherite perspective, you are going to be tending towards the right wing perspective, dependent on how ruthless your opinion is. If very ruthless, it would be a far right perspective
If you believe the role of the state is to support those who need it and or are vulnerable, then you will traditionally lean more left. As Reform have made it clear they will happily cut benefits, reducing them entirely (!) for those out of work for 4 months, I think it’s reasonable to say this policy leans far right, yes.
The underclass theory put forward by Murray, it is also worth noting, is generally disregarded like most of his now-outdated work within the field of sociology. Some of his work is dangerously close to eugenics. Which the Nazis used.
The reason I mentioned the Overton window, if you missed it, was because I’m implying the reason you don’t think reform are far-right, is precisely because you see Starmers Labour Party as ‘centre left’. If someone stated they believed Mussolini was a centre politician, they might also be lead to believe that as a result, Hitler wasn’t far right, which is obviously nonsensical.
I think this is one of the most mental things I've read on reddit.
If you believe in people who are quite capable of work, and choosing not to work, should have a FOUR MONTH limit on job seekers allowance then you basically believe in eugenics 😂😂😂
Holy shit, you've drank all of the cool aid.
We live in a world where you can download an app and get work, we have delivery jobs going through the roof, we are short of fruit pickers and have to import them to harvest crops, we have a shortage of basically all trademen... Who is realistically going to require 4 months to find employment in 2024 unless you are choosing not to work?
>The reason I mentioned the Overton window, if you missed it, was because I’m implying the reason you don’t think reform are far-right, is precisely because you see Starmers Labour Party as ‘centre left’.
Please educate me on how Starmer isn't centre left, please oh please do that.
>If someone stated they believed Mussolini was a centre politician, they might also be lead to believe that as a result, Hitler wasn’t far right, which is obviously nonsensical.
Please don't vote.
Those are EC numbers, which outside of small shifts between established parties are useless. EC should not be looked at as anything other than entertainment for this election. An actual MRP trying to allocate voters more accurately than a more-or-less uniform swing approach will give different results, especially when so many seats are tory-ref swing.
An MRP calculates voting rates for different groups, then works backwards. If middle class people are found to be likely to switch from Tory to Green, then this will count how many middle class people there are per constituency and calculate their contribution to the swing.
Confusingly this MRP was done by EC, when I referenced EC I meant their "your prediction" calculator, which is a very simple tool so can't capture any nuance.
A lot of those 18 make no sense at all. E.g. Buxton highest UKIP vote was 17%, Skipton & Ripon 14%, Cotswolds 11%. There is no chance in hell of a third of those listed going reform.
Given this odd ness it does throw into question the whole MRP.
They came first in 414 seats in the European Election of 2019. Only looking at general elections misses that an awful lot of people have voted Brexit/Reform before.
At some point the Tory bleed to Reform will mean Reform becomes a genuinely viable option. Although I hope they don't.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom_by_Westminster_constituency
Normally, absolutely. But this isn't normal.
Those people who voted Brexit as a protest against the Tories in 2019 are just as annoyed now as back then, and the Tories haven't given them any reason to take Sunak seriously.
I just don't see how the old MRP model will actually work when you introduce a new party like Reform 2 weeks from the election, how will the old model be accurate when the landscape has changed.
Why not? If the Tory vote collapses in those areas, Reform are likely to be major beneficiaries. In the High Peak constituency (covering Buxton) for example, it's been neck and neck between the two main parties since 2017. Combining the Brexit Party vote with the Tory vote from 2019 would lead to Reform success.
The vote share must be getting to tipping point where they start to pick up seats, a couple of percent suddenly makes a huge difference. I don't see a partnership happening, Reform sit slightly outside of the left / right dynamic, their aim is to kill the Tories not prop them up.
I think whether Reform wants to destroy the Tories or absorb them will be determined by who the Tories select as the new party leader. If it's someone who's soft on illegal migration and soft on legal migration then "Zero Seats" makes sense, if it's someone like Suella Braverman or Kemi Badenoch then a partnership would be more likely.
I think it's more likely they get around 5 or 6 MPs and around 5 or 6 million votes and potentially come 2nd in over a hundred constituencies (most of which would be more traditional Labour seats). Which would still be a great outcome for Reform, 18 seems unthinkable to me.
As much as I’d love to see the Lib Dem’s be the opposition… if Tory and Reform votes combined could displace LD’s as the opposition then I fear that’d be the fastest scenario for a formal Farage takeover of the Conservative Party. Especially if Nigel does have a decent number of seats to bring to the table.
There’s no way the remnants of the Tories could live with third place and there’s no way Nigel could live without the attention of being LOTO if that was a realistic possibility for him.
If the LD’s do end up in opposition I hope it’s with a majority that the Tories and Reform can’t topple.
If that takeover does happen there is the chance some of the less rabid tories then defect from the party. Though there probably won’t be many of those left
I'm in one of the 10 safest tory seats in the country and the EC MRP predicts it going Lib Dem (just). From what I'm seeing locally that is at least a possibility
True. But in this hypothetical nightmare scenario there would probably be enough DUP MP’s to replace any moderate Tories who couldn’t stomach Farage.
Tory/Reform/DUP Frankenstein opposition. Nigel has recently talked up the DUP as well, much to the chagrin of the TUV.
Unionists are furious with the Tories following Brexit, the quickest way to lose their seats apart from jumping off a tall building is to join the Tories.
I can’t see the DUP agreeing to merge with anyone. They’d have to say yes to something to do that! Without a formal merger I don’t think coalition oppositions are a thing
I think if the Tories end up with this few MPs, most of them will be from the One Nation wing of the party. Spectacular infighting is guaranteed either way.
apparently rival parties combining to just about form an opposition is so small-time, I can’t believe the ego of either a party on the up or a party in decline could go for it
can the official opposition change during the term of parliament? So if it started off as lib dems then the tory and reform merger happened, would they replace the lib dems as oppo, or would they have to wait until the next opening of parliament?
can the official opposition change during the term of parliament? So if it started off as lib dems then the tory and reform merger happened, would they replace the lib dems as oppo, or would they have to wait until the next opening of parliament?
Reform seats are a big unknown, their voters seem enthusiastic so I think they will actually go out and vote. The Tories collapsing leaves them with a gap to exploit.
The big question with Reform voters is how concentrated are they are and how susceptible they are to a squeeze by the Tories in individual seats. The only real hard data point we have is UKIP in 2015 they were very spread out. We won't really know if they have sufficient grouping anywhere apart from perhaps Clacton until the votes are counted.
there was plenty written at the time about how clustered they were, 2nd in 120 seats etc.
not enough to get more than one seat but I was hoping for more substance in your response than “they won one seat”
The Reform numbers look way OTT... so i doubt this poll is anywhere close to what reality is.
LDs have been put in second place in a fair few different polls lately. More than the Tories have, so i don't doubt they'll likely be in opposition.
To me this shouldn't be a desirable outcome for Labour. Your opposition will call you to account and it is really difficult to argue back if you deflect to a party that isn't even the opposition.
Yeah have had this theory for a while. Labour would prefer the Tory bogeyman to be a threat. Their whole election machine is based on shouting 'It's us or the Tories!!' at people, even in places where the Tories have no hope.
The Lib Dems won't seem as unappealing to people if and when they become disgruntled with Labour.
> Their whole election machine is based on shouting 'It's us or the Tories!!' at people
They'd still get to do that. If the LibDems become the opposition this parliament, they'll lose it in 2029. Ultimately there's 35-45% of voters that will vote for right wing parties, and unless the LibDems massively shift to the right to accommodate them their time as opposition will become a pub quiz question.
It would be great for Labour and great for the country. Next election would be a cakewalk for Labour. It would take longer then 5 years for LibDems to build up an election winning machine on a scale that Tories have. And without exposure that's coming from being LotO it would be hard for Tories to mount a comeback. Then if LibDems manage to secure LotO position on those elections as well, then they could become a real challenger with majority of Tory donors probably switching over to them. Which would be awesome, an election with a choice between 2 sensible parties... One can dream...
Surely Keir "Country before party, always" Starmer would still want it though. The Lib Dems being the Opposition would probably be good for the country. Not only would they probably be a better Opposition than the Tories but it'd probably end up shifting the overton window in Labours' direction.
Obviously it'd be bad for the Labour party but I honestly think it'd be better overall for the country.
I feel this is not accurate.
Reform wont get 17 and Lib Dems won't get above 60 without another proper 3-4% rise.
Greens on 4!? they will be lucky to retain there only seat in my view.
I am Lib Dem and even I say this bad projection.
>Lib Dems won't get above 60 without another proper 3-4% rise.
I think you underestimate how efficiently the lib dem and Lab vote has become. Tactical voting has gone insane in his election
Greens on 4 is very plausible. There are constituency level polls showing them with a huge lead in North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley. Bristol Central is very winnable for them as well.
> Reform wont get 17 and Lib Dems won't get above 60 without another proper 3-4% rise.
I don't think those numbers are impossible, but it's weird that they seem to have Reform missing out on some of their bigger targets where UKIP did particularly well in the past yet winning a few affluent Tory safe seats. Unless everyone is wrong about the kinds of people who are going to vote Reform.
> Greens on 4!?
According to the bookies, the Greens are slight favourites in Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central, and slight underdogs behind the Tories in North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley. Anything between 0 and 4 seats is perfectly plausible for them.
The only hope is that the campaign is being well targeted by the Lib Dems, something that any polling, even MRP, is going to struggle to understand.
Unfortunately I suspect that limitations on resources mean it just won't be possible for the Lib Dems to target every seat they could have been competitive in.
I guess we find out how broken or not their model is next week.
It is possible but I don’t think it’s likely. I think floating around 4 or 5 would be a very good result.
16 would have been better than anyone at Reform ever expected.
interested in your list - I think reform can outperform, though I think the actual seats may surprise a little, based on nothing but a belief there’ll be a lot of 3 and 4 horse races where they could get a nose.
I think obvious targets may suffer from poor candidates, e.g. the dog-kicker
Last time I checked Electoral Calculus, Rochdale was apparently in play for Reform UK (presumably due to vote-splitting between Labour and Galloway); do you think they have a chance there?
I don’t think you can really compare against 2015, especially for UKIP. The political climate was much different back then and the main issue being brexit. Heck even I was swayed by UKIP back then, I was naive. People change their minds as well. So should be taken with a grain of salt.
From what I understand, you’re comparing UKIP performance in 2015 with their current chances of winning in those seats. What I’m saying is UKIP voters back then aren’t necessarily the Reform voters today. So whilst those seats did well for UKIP in 2015 I don’t think you can just presume that they will perform about the same.
I just don’t know where the evidence is that “Reform will outpoll UKIP significantly”? From what I can see it just feels like a big assumption. But maybe I’m missing something obvious.
Appreciate this - it’s at the very least a reasoned look at things.
I could well believe that reform eventually underperform because of the poorness of their candidates and messaging.
however, on this subreddit I find myself at odds with the median view, which seems to simultaneously believe that the reform vote won’t cluster in a way that wins seats, but also freak out if they see e.g. Oxford West having Reform on an impossibly high 6% or whatever
it’s as if reform should poll 0% in the seats they are unlikely to win, and no more than their national average in their target seats outside clacton - that’s about what it would take to satisfy people here
The big thing to watch for in the election is whether Reform get 7 or more seats, because that's the threshold for a party getting public funding for any "wasted" votes.
We’ve always talked about the ‘shy Tories’ who only manifest on polling day but what if there are ‘shy Reformists’ too? The thing about a parvenu party like Reform is that it could develop a self-propelling momentum. If Tories see a Labour majority as inevitable, they could find the courage to vote Reform and give the Tories a kick. Reform winning more seats than the conventional wisdom suggests isn’t too far beyond realm of possibility.
I believe there probably is a large wedge of "shy Reformists". A party of far-right views and an alternative to the spiralling Tories, there will be swathes of voters not comfortable with saying they're a "Reformist" in fear of being branded a racist, etc. Once they're in a polling booth however...
The oddest seat forecast is for Fareham which it is suggesting will be won by Reform, presumably because the locals see them as more moderate than their current MP, Braverman.
> presumably because the locals see them as more moderate than their current MP, Braverman
I'd actually assume it's because they want something done about immigration, and have seen the Tories are all talk on that front.
Snapshot of _Electcalculus MRP poll projects that the Liberal Democrats will be forming the official opposition_ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1805998278385029368) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/MarwanData/status/1805998278385029368/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/MarwanData/status/1805998278385029368) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/MarwanData/status/1805998278385029368) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Reform get 18 MPs according to this. That's got to be their highest forecast number by some distance? Don't see how the Tories try to unite the right with an outcome like that. More likely to see a 50/50 partnership than the Tories absorbing Reform.
Right. I've seen them on 3-6. 18 seems to be a big outlier.
I imagine once they hit a certain percentage (circa 20%) they start gaining a lot of seats very quickly. Thanks FPTP.
To be fair it's thanks to FPTP they aren't getting the 100-150 they would/should have under PR.
PR would put them on a lot more seats...
I'd argue that's a good thing in the long run. They'd still be a minority and when people are drawn to the extremes due a hideous lack of representative governance, including them somewhat lays the groundwork for a more moderate and useful co-opertive minority parliament to emerge and reduces the influence of people looking to foment extreme political opinions, eroding their base in the longer term.
Are they really the extreme? You have labour who are centrist to center left The Tories are saying they are center right but all their actions are pretty much what labour are promising. Then you have Reform who are just promising centre right politics like low tax and controlled immigration. Effectively what the Tories promised in all their last election wins. They are far from the BNP.
Another way of interpreting this though is that the Overton window has shifted considerably to the right. You say Labour are centre left, but economically their manifesto doesn’t differ hugely from the Conservatives. There is no real intention at any form of wealth redistribution (as there was in Corbyn’s manifesto, a focus on taxing higher earners). There is no real emphasis on regulating the financial markets either. On things like immigration, welfare, disability benefits etc, Starmer and Rishi aren’t worlds apart either. Rishi last night was more confident in saying he would cut benefits to those not prepared to work, but Starmer still had little sympathy for those on benefits. Any actual difference is saved for issues such as the trans debate, which whilst I have huge sympathy and complete support for the trans community, is an issue which only effects 0.5% of the population. On the issues which effect the majority, they more or less agree on a traditional right wing stance. You say Reform isn’t far right, and you’re right in that the definition is vague enough to say it with certainty, but it’s clear to see why the label gets thrown around. It’s led by a man who campaigned for Brexit with a poster which mirrored a Nazi poster targeted at the Jewish community, and 40 of its members are social media friends with a known public fascist. The Deputy leader said the party would cut benefits to those who couldn’t find a job in 4 months, not explaining what they were expected to do… after the 4 months. You can try and make out the far right label is unwarranted, but for most it’s quite easy to see the connection.
Labour is losing votes directly to Reform. And I think it's partly a function of having moved too far to the right on economics. If voters decide that economics aren't really at stake in this election, then you get to make the decision solely on culture wars and immigration, and that plays greatly to Reform's advantage.
So the only thing on reform policy you said is this: "The Deputy leader said the party would cut benefits to those who couldn’t find a job in 4 months, not explaining what they were expected to do… after the 4 months." Is telling people they need to find a job within 4 months far right now? If you can't find a job in 4 months you're either: 1. Not trying 2. Looking for jobs that don't exist 3. Looking for jobs you're not qualified to do
Cutting people’s benefits, which would be the only thing stopping them from starving/their children from starving, yes, most would consider far-right. In Britain, one indicator of where you lie on the political spectrum has always been in relation to your views on the welfare state. If you believe that too much of it leads to something like the ‘underclass’ forming, eg Charles Murray/Thatcherite perspective, you are going to be tending towards the right wing perspective, dependent on how ruthless your opinion is. If very ruthless, it would be a far right perspective If you believe the role of the state is to support those who need it and or are vulnerable, then you will traditionally lean more left. As Reform have made it clear they will happily cut benefits, reducing them entirely (!) for those out of work for 4 months, I think it’s reasonable to say this policy leans far right, yes. The underclass theory put forward by Murray, it is also worth noting, is generally disregarded like most of his now-outdated work within the field of sociology. Some of his work is dangerously close to eugenics. Which the Nazis used. The reason I mentioned the Overton window, if you missed it, was because I’m implying the reason you don’t think reform are far-right, is precisely because you see Starmers Labour Party as ‘centre left’. If someone stated they believed Mussolini was a centre politician, they might also be lead to believe that as a result, Hitler wasn’t far right, which is obviously nonsensical.
I think this is one of the most mental things I've read on reddit. If you believe in people who are quite capable of work, and choosing not to work, should have a FOUR MONTH limit on job seekers allowance then you basically believe in eugenics 😂😂😂 Holy shit, you've drank all of the cool aid. We live in a world where you can download an app and get work, we have delivery jobs going through the roof, we are short of fruit pickers and have to import them to harvest crops, we have a shortage of basically all trademen... Who is realistically going to require 4 months to find employment in 2024 unless you are choosing not to work? >The reason I mentioned the Overton window, if you missed it, was because I’m implying the reason you don’t think reform are far-right, is precisely because you see Starmers Labour Party as ‘centre left’. Please educate me on how Starmer isn't centre left, please oh please do that. >If someone stated they believed Mussolini was a centre politician, they might also be lead to believe that as a result, Hitler wasn’t far right, which is obviously nonsensical. Please don't vote.
Those are EC numbers, which outside of small shifts between established parties are useless. EC should not be looked at as anything other than entertainment for this election. An actual MRP trying to allocate voters more accurately than a more-or-less uniform swing approach will give different results, especially when so many seats are tory-ref swing.
It works on uniform swing I believe? Whereas it could be proportional swing or nothing at all.
An MRP calculates voting rates for different groups, then works backwards. If middle class people are found to be likely to switch from Tory to Green, then this will count how many middle class people there are per constituency and calculate their contribution to the swing. Confusingly this MRP was done by EC, when I referenced EC I meant their "your prediction" calculator, which is a very simple tool so can't capture any nuance.
A lot of those 18 make no sense at all. E.g. Buxton highest UKIP vote was 17%, Skipton & Ripon 14%, Cotswolds 11%. There is no chance in hell of a third of those listed going reform. Given this odd ness it does throw into question the whole MRP.
They came first in 414 seats in the European Election of 2019. Only looking at general elections misses that an awful lot of people have voted Brexit/Reform before. At some point the Tory bleed to Reform will mean Reform becomes a genuinely viable option. Although I hope they don't. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom_by_Westminster_constituency
People do tend to treat general elections differently to local/european ones though. There's much more tactical voting and far less protest voting.
Normally, absolutely. But this isn't normal. Those people who voted Brexit as a protest against the Tories in 2019 are just as annoyed now as back then, and the Tories haven't given them any reason to take Sunak seriously.
I just don't see how the old MRP model will actually work when you introduce a new party like Reform 2 weeks from the election, how will the old model be accurate when the landscape has changed.
Why not? If the Tory vote collapses in those areas, Reform are likely to be major beneficiaries. In the High Peak constituency (covering Buxton) for example, it's been neck and neck between the two main parties since 2017. Combining the Brexit Party vote with the Tory vote from 2019 would lead to Reform success.
The vote share must be getting to tipping point where they start to pick up seats, a couple of percent suddenly makes a huge difference. I don't see a partnership happening, Reform sit slightly outside of the left / right dynamic, their aim is to kill the Tories not prop them up.
I think whether Reform wants to destroy the Tories or absorb them will be determined by who the Tories select as the new party leader. If it's someone who's soft on illegal migration and soft on legal migration then "Zero Seats" makes sense, if it's someone like Suella Braverman or Kemi Badenoch then a partnership would be more likely.
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I think it's more likely they get around 5 or 6 MPs and around 5 or 6 million votes and potentially come 2nd in over a hundred constituencies (most of which would be more traditional Labour seats). Which would still be a great outcome for Reform, 18 seems unthinkable to me.
As much as I’d love to see the Lib Dem’s be the opposition… if Tory and Reform votes combined could displace LD’s as the opposition then I fear that’d be the fastest scenario for a formal Farage takeover of the Conservative Party. Especially if Nigel does have a decent number of seats to bring to the table. There’s no way the remnants of the Tories could live with third place and there’s no way Nigel could live without the attention of being LOTO if that was a realistic possibility for him. If the LD’s do end up in opposition I hope it’s with a majority that the Tories and Reform can’t topple.
If that takeover does happen there is the chance some of the less rabid tories then defect from the party. Though there probably won’t be many of those left
Sunak parachuted a fair number of one nationers into very safe seats
I'm in one of the 10 safest tory seats in the country and the EC MRP predicts it going Lib Dem (just). From what I'm seeing locally that is at least a possibility
True. But in this hypothetical nightmare scenario there would probably be enough DUP MP’s to replace any moderate Tories who couldn’t stomach Farage. Tory/Reform/DUP Frankenstein opposition. Nigel has recently talked up the DUP as well, much to the chagrin of the TUV.
Unionists are furious with the Tories following Brexit, the quickest way to lose their seats apart from jumping off a tall building is to join the Tories.
A Farage led Tory party though would be a different beast entirely. They would eat that shit up.
I can’t see the DUP agreeing to merge with anyone. They’d have to say yes to something to do that! Without a formal merger I don’t think coalition oppositions are a thing
I think if the Tories end up with this few MPs, most of them will be from the One Nation wing of the party. Spectacular infighting is guaranteed either way.
I don't think its a matter of commanded votes. Its about who is the second largest party in the chamber.
Unfortunately this MRP puts reform at 18MPs. So the two combined *could* risk shattering the Sir Ed LOTO Dream.
apparently rival parties combining to just about form an opposition is so small-time, I can’t believe the ego of either a party on the up or a party in decline could go for it
can the official opposition change during the term of parliament? So if it started off as lib dems then the tory and reform merger happened, would they replace the lib dems as oppo, or would they have to wait until the next opening of parliament?
can the official opposition change during the term of parliament? So if it started off as lib dems then the tory and reform merger happened, would they replace the lib dems as oppo, or would they have to wait until the next opening of parliament?
Reform seats are a big unknown, their voters seem enthusiastic so I think they will actually go out and vote. The Tories collapsing leaves them with a gap to exploit.
The big question with Reform voters is how concentrated are they are and how susceptible they are to a squeeze by the Tories in individual seats. The only real hard data point we have is UKIP in 2015 they were very spread out. We won't really know if they have sufficient grouping anywhere apart from perhaps Clacton until the votes are counted.
very spread out seems a stretch - what are you basing that on?
They got 1 seat.
there was plenty written at the time about how clustered they were, 2nd in 120 seats etc. not enough to get more than one seat but I was hoping for more substance in your response than “they won one seat”
The Reform numbers look way OTT... so i doubt this poll is anywhere close to what reality is. LDs have been put in second place in a fair few different polls lately. More than the Tories have, so i don't doubt they'll likely be in opposition.
Be careful, we’re in unprecedented times right now, stranger things have happened.
To me this shouldn't be a desirable outcome for Labour. Your opposition will call you to account and it is really difficult to argue back if you deflect to a party that isn't even the opposition.
Yeah have had this theory for a while. Labour would prefer the Tory bogeyman to be a threat. Their whole election machine is based on shouting 'It's us or the Tories!!' at people, even in places where the Tories have no hope. The Lib Dems won't seem as unappealing to people if and when they become disgruntled with Labour.
> Their whole election machine is based on shouting 'It's us or the Tories!!' at people They'd still get to do that. If the LibDems become the opposition this parliament, they'll lose it in 2029. Ultimately there's 35-45% of voters that will vote for right wing parties, and unless the LibDems massively shift to the right to accommodate them their time as opposition will become a pub quiz question.
It would be great for Labour and great for the country. Next election would be a cakewalk for Labour. It would take longer then 5 years for LibDems to build up an election winning machine on a scale that Tories have. And without exposure that's coming from being LotO it would be hard for Tories to mount a comeback. Then if LibDems manage to secure LotO position on those elections as well, then they could become a real challenger with majority of Tory donors probably switching over to them. Which would be awesome, an election with a choice between 2 sensible parties... One can dream...
Surely Keir "Country before party, always" Starmer would still want it though. The Lib Dems being the Opposition would probably be good for the country. Not only would they probably be a better Opposition than the Tories but it'd probably end up shifting the overton window in Labours' direction. Obviously it'd be bad for the Labour party but I honestly think it'd be better overall for the country.
At this point, the Lib Dems are to the left of Labour
Looks like the Lib Dems might finally get their time in the spotlight as the official opposition—who saw that coming?
Not to brag (ok I want to brag) I was saying a year ago this very scenario was severely underpriced
Man I'm going to be out of commission on the 5th
I feel this is not accurate. Reform wont get 17 and Lib Dems won't get above 60 without another proper 3-4% rise. Greens on 4!? they will be lucky to retain there only seat in my view. I am Lib Dem and even I say this bad projection.
MRP seems to be struggling with how different this election is.
>Lib Dems won't get above 60 without another proper 3-4% rise. I think you underestimate how efficiently the lib dem and Lab vote has become. Tactical voting has gone insane in his election
Greens on 4 is very plausible. There are constituency level polls showing them with a huge lead in North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley. Bristol Central is very winnable for them as well.
> Reform wont get 17 and Lib Dems won't get above 60 without another proper 3-4% rise. I don't think those numbers are impossible, but it's weird that they seem to have Reform missing out on some of their bigger targets where UKIP did particularly well in the past yet winning a few affluent Tory safe seats. Unless everyone is wrong about the kinds of people who are going to vote Reform. > Greens on 4!? According to the bookies, the Greens are slight favourites in Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central, and slight underdogs behind the Tories in North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley. Anything between 0 and 4 seats is perfectly plausible for them.
The only hope is that the campaign is being well targeted by the Lib Dems, something that any polling, even MRP, is going to struggle to understand. Unfortunately I suspect that limitations on resources mean it just won't be possible for the Lib Dems to target every seat they could have been competitive in. I guess we find out how broken or not their model is next week.
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It is possible but I don’t think it’s likely. I think floating around 4 or 5 would be a very good result. 16 would have been better than anyone at Reform ever expected.
interested in your list - I think reform can outperform, though I think the actual seats may surprise a little, based on nothing but a belief there’ll be a lot of 3 and 4 horse races where they could get a nose. I think obvious targets may suffer from poor candidates, e.g. the dog-kicker
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Last time I checked Electoral Calculus, Rochdale was apparently in play for Reform UK (presumably due to vote-splitting between Labour and Galloway); do you think they have a chance there?
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Galloway gets a surprising number of votes from reform inclined types, he might actually be able to squeeze their vote.
I don’t think you can really compare against 2015, especially for UKIP. The political climate was much different back then and the main issue being brexit. Heck even I was swayed by UKIP back then, I was naive. People change their minds as well. So should be taken with a grain of salt.
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From what I understand, you’re comparing UKIP performance in 2015 with their current chances of winning in those seats. What I’m saying is UKIP voters back then aren’t necessarily the Reform voters today. So whilst those seats did well for UKIP in 2015 I don’t think you can just presume that they will perform about the same. I just don’t know where the evidence is that “Reform will outpoll UKIP significantly”? From what I can see it just feels like a big assumption. But maybe I’m missing something obvious.
Appreciate this - it’s at the very least a reasoned look at things. I could well believe that reform eventually underperform because of the poorness of their candidates and messaging. however, on this subreddit I find myself at odds with the median view, which seems to simultaneously believe that the reform vote won’t cluster in a way that wins seats, but also freak out if they see e.g. Oxford West having Reform on an impossibly high 6% or whatever it’s as if reform should poll 0% in the seats they are unlikely to win, and no more than their national average in their target seats outside clacton - that’s about what it would take to satisfy people here
The big thing to watch for in the election is whether Reform get 7 or more seats, because that's the threshold for a party getting public funding for any "wasted" votes.
We’ve always talked about the ‘shy Tories’ who only manifest on polling day but what if there are ‘shy Reformists’ too? The thing about a parvenu party like Reform is that it could develop a self-propelling momentum. If Tories see a Labour majority as inevitable, they could find the courage to vote Reform and give the Tories a kick. Reform winning more seats than the conventional wisdom suggests isn’t too far beyond realm of possibility.
I believe there probably is a large wedge of "shy Reformists". A party of far-right views and an alternative to the spiralling Tories, there will be swathes of voters not comfortable with saying they're a "Reformist" in fear of being branded a racist, etc. Once they're in a polling booth however...
I wish there were shy Reform voters
Can't see this as much as I'd like it to be true, but still enjoying it as it will make some tories extra miserable.
The oddest seat forecast is for Fareham which it is suggesting will be won by Reform, presumably because the locals see them as more moderate than their current MP, Braverman.
> presumably because the locals see them as more moderate than their current MP, Braverman I'd actually assume it's because they want something done about immigration, and have seen the Tories are all talk on that front.
Long term Liberal watcher. No chance they get this many seats.