Both. Reducing deprived areas budget by 32% and affluent areas by 3% during austerity is absolutely malicious. Running a Brexit campaign that included a facsimile of the NHS logo on their advertising is criminally malicious.
They're also incompetent fucks. Every post Brexit trade deal shows that, the car crash interviews on basic questions shows that.
It's the worst of the options, incompetent and malicious.
Suspending the belief for a second that high-ranking Tories only care about themselves rather than the party, I think this question is a valid one. In the pessimistic sense that things are still likely to get worse rather than better with how it’s all been setup, Tory strategy could be that Labour has to deal with the worst of the fallout during its first years in office, without seeing the benefits of all this work before the next election. All the problems of the strikes, trains, HS2, housing, interest/debt, budget, etc. are all immediately on the Labour plate rather than things the Tories have to solve before the required election date. Ergo, Labour has all these fires to fight even before implementing their own agenda, and the Tory bet could be they won’t be able to attain a standard of living better than what Britain had before the pandemic. Then, in 5 years the Tories will just comoletely ignore they were in office from 2020-24, and point to how the 2010s under Tory governance were better than the 2020s under Labour’s governance.
Once again, this is entirely dependent that current leadership actually cares about the party, as it’ll never actually benefit them personally, but it’s a “rip off the bandaid and run” strategy to get back in the running for 2029.
All started in 2019 - Johnson and Cummings got rid of anyone who wouldn't do what they were told - Sajid Javid being a prime example - and the party was largely populated by inexperienced, though very loyal, brexiters basically.
That might have been "ok" under Johnson and Cummings, both big characters with strong political instincts. But rishi sunak has neither of those. He isn't popular with the electorate, and he can't see which way the wind is blowing most of the time. With people like Gove stepping down, they are left with the blind leading the blind.
They've also received staggeringly small volumes.of donations with which to run their operations - less money then the lib dems have received I think I read somewhere. That won't help either.
If you want a conspiracy, I think rishi called the election because he was about to face a vote of no confidence, or some other internal issue, and called the election to make sure that if he goes down, everyone else goes down with him.
Policy decisions are normally ideological, and so, if your ideology is different to the tories this is where maliciousness comes into play.
That ideology also *in part* impacts on their response to events so some degree of maliviousness there. What I think *all* have been stunned by is how untalented and poor at dealing with unexpected (or predicting expected) events they are. This is where the incompetence argument comes in.
They are not mutually exclusive factors, and on informs the perception we have of the other.
I don't really believe in conspiracy anything to be honest. But this level of perceived incompetence seems maddening to me. Obviously I am one point of view here.
I think there is something to be said for the idea of being "on a roll". It's like when things are going well, you relax, you have the room to experiment with new ideas, some things are already on your side which makes other things easier.
The opposite is also true. When things are going badly, you panic and make bad decisions, you're stressed out and come across annoyed and unlikeable, your resources are stretched, etc etc. I think that's what's happening.
It's not just incompetence, they are also dysfunctional, clan infighting within the party from before Brexit. Brexit was supposed to resolve this, but it destroyed the UK and not all Tories really wanted that on their heads. Cycling through incompetent PMs to one who just doesn't give a sh\*t because he's so rich.
What you are seeing is not the result of a long game plan, but the natural result of the Peter Principle compounded by Murphy's Law.
It's quite disappointing really, when I first followed politics I thought it would be more House of Cards like with 4D chess and grand plans
Every year since then I grow more and more disappointed that there is no shadow cabal, or mastermind pulling the strings, they're just shit
I thought The Thick Of It was supposed to be a comedy not a documentary
I’d generally agree *if* Starmer didn’t have similar neoliberal politics. I just think it’s a handover - the passing of the baton to someone that will have more political power.
They didn't need to *try* to lose this election, they could have continued to bumble along and not done anything specific to appeal to anyone new and it would have just happened, so there's no reason to try to intentionally lose.
If they perform at the worse end of the range of current possibilities they risk being wiped out to the point that rebuilding will be harder than it really needed to be, so there's a very good reason *not* to try to intentionally lose.
People tend to want to find patterns that explain things - "this is happening, therefore someone wanted this to happen", but a lot of the time the people in charge are just fucking incompetent.
The simple answer is that this election and every stupid thing they've done is the best the current crop of Tories are capable of.
“Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity”
honestly they’re just shit at this, they’ve churned through or rejected many of their more experienced political
operators, their ideology is fractured and contradictory, and they’re also just ‘tired’ (out of ideas and excuses)
should have been put out to pasture years ago
This is not adequately explained by stupidity though? It's sp bizarre to see Rishi deliberately taking Ls after Ls.
He might want to leave the ship early. Not sure about others
Stupidity isn’t quite the right word, I think it’s more he lacks any real political awareness - no sense for the optics of a situation and that keeps backfiring
Though he’s certainly surrounded himself by fuckwits which doesn’t help either
No I just think that Rishi legitimately thought if he lowered inflation and had the Rwanda bill passed then the public would somehow back them. Shows how completely out of touch the party is, they’re on a different planet.
They are not trying to lose but they know it's inevitable so they're not exactly trying their best to win either.
What I do believe they have done, somewhat in line with what you are suggesting, is push a load of issues down the road for Labour to deal with, with the intent of shortening Labours period of incumbancy. Or at the least planted rhetoric now with which to beat LAB with post election.
Childcare changes that probably aren't sustainable schedule into the next government.
Inflated house prices and avoided drops with stamp duty changes.
Rwanda instead of meaningful action (I don't care enough about this issue to know what meaningful action is but I know it ain't Rwanda)
Compounding impact of cost of living crisis eventually drowning the bottom third (or more) of society.
'Promising' to remove National Insurance.
One theory is that they have haemorraged so much cash that if they didn't have it now they wouldn't just be morally bankrupt, they'd be literally bankrupt.
And deep down they were likely hoping for a worst scenario of Labour not having enough seats for a majority and a subsequent election being called.
If the polls are accurate their best case scenario is the worst result ever and the worst case scenario is to be virtually wiped out. A loss so catastrophically bad that it would ordinarily take a decade or more to rebuild but many of their usual voters simply will not have that long left. And it's doubtful that newspaper industry has that long left too.
So my belief is that the Tories are finished.
Tories knew it was game over after Liz Truss. There's nothing the Tories could do or promise that would make up for the shambolic state of the country after 14 years of lying to parliament, COVID parties, Truss crashing the economy and backroom sleaze and corrupt contracts for their mates. The people aren't even enthusiastic about other parties, they are just really, really angry at the Tories.
On a personal level Sunak clearly wants out. He can do a Nick Clegg earning a ton for a piss easy job at some tech company in California. Sunak's heart was never in politics n the first place. There's no obvious replacement candidate and the party is trapped in an existential political quagmire they won't escape from any time soon.
Nah.
First, it's spelled 'lose', with a single o.
The Tory leadership is incompetent, and has been at least since May was ousted. No need to assume malice in what is explained by stupidity. And it's the nature of politics that the next government is going to face the mess that the current one created, and they may get blamed for it. That's how it goes, everywhere.
>has been at least since May was ousted.
I think you might be looking back with rose tinted glasses there. Theresa May failed in virtually everything she set out to achieve and lost her majority through incompetence.
The Tory leadership has been a mess since the Brexit vote. It was masked by Boris populism, Jeremy Corbyn then the pandemic for a while but it's always been there under the surface.
Agreed. I was going to follow "at least May" with "or Cameron", but just left it out.
I think all commentators agree that May is a serious politician, not a charlatan like Johnson. I think she was seriously misguided in taking on delivering Brexit, a decision she disagreed with in the first place. I don't know if she was just blinded by the idea of becoming PM. Her own explanation was that since Brexit won by four precentage points in the referendum, it had to be implemented, so she was going to make the best of it. The trouble is that a wrong decision is still the wrong decision, even if it won the popular vote, and that the brexiteers of her own party were not acting in good faith and she couldn't bring them in line.
May is a serious politician yes and on paper she had all the credentials to succeed, but all of that means nothing if you don't get results.
A bit like this England performance we are about to witness....
"no need to assume malice in what is explained by stupidity" sounds like something I'd say to a trainee at work and I'll be using this.
Yes it is lose not loose. You're correct.
What Wilkinson's Sword don't want you to know:
Occam’s razor: Keep it simple, stupid.
Hanlon’s razor: People make mistakes. This doesn’t make them evil.
Hitchen’s razor: If it can’t be backed up, dismiss it.
Grice’s razor: Understand the true meaning, not the face value.
Even if this was the case it's likely the new government would discover it soon, and then it would be their equivalent of the "there's no money left" note, on steroids.
Sorry OP, I will be of no help as I am thinking the same.
I am retired and have lived through two major recessions. I am seeing all the same signs. People being made redundant and struggling to get jobs, cost of living crisis, etc. We would have had a recession earlier if it wasn't for massive immigration. More people buy more products. The Conservatives know this, hence the massive amount of immigration, but the public are seeing through the lies.
Unfortunately governments cannot seem to grow the UK economy without selling off public services or immigration. I am also of the belief that growth cannot be infinite, especially in mature economies. The only people who benefit from immigration are the super rich and business owners who benefit from cheap labour.
Rishi wants out. Starmer has no comprehension of how bad the situation is.
To quote Liam Byrne in 2010 "There is no money".
I'm only 35 and I'm convinced this is the case. Just feel like some sort of conspiracy nut case. I don't know exactly What's not been told to us, but there's something.
Aggregate GDP growth isn't quite the same as GDP per capita growth. The lattee has been declining for a while now. Average person is poorer. Select individuals at the top have become MUCH richer, thus inflating the average
Exactly. Governments won't use GDP per capita adjusted for inflation as it paints a very depressing picture.
I think from memory, the last time we had "proper" growth was prior to 2008.
US gdp per capita in 2007: $48k
US gdp per capita in 2024: $85k
**UK gdp per capita in 2007: $50k**
**UK gdp per capita in 2024: $51k**
Growth my ass. It gets even worse. At some point in 2007, £1 = $2
£1 barely buys $1.20 these days
And why does no one on Question Time ever ask THIS question about growth per capita or how the government plan to grow the economy without relying on immigration or a booming housing market.
I never went to University (I'm old and only 3% of my generation went to University), but I sometimes think I have a better understanding of economics and what is better for the country as a whole and not just fat cats.
I am almost not sorry I will probably be dead in 20 years, less if I make average life expectancy. I fear for the future.
I am currently reading a book called The Spirit Level. It was written way back in 2009, but still relevant.
Nah, there is no tactics involved. The party is split and can't govern. Delaying any longer and Rishi would face no confidence vote. However bad things are for them now, going into an election with no confidence hanging over leader would be a total disaster.
>I'm almost completely convinced the Tories are trying to *lose* this election on purpose and the election was called at this time. Specifically to *lose* ... Please someone try and convince me I'm incorrect.
No, I think you're absolutely correct - sorry.
Ultimately, Europe has - yet again - been the undoing of the Conservative party, as it has done continually going all the way back to Ted Heath in the 1970s.
Here's my conspiracy theory for you - a bit tinfoil, sure, but it feels right:
Sunak is vindictive - we know this because it almost certainly he that released the photo of the garden party that more or less forced Johnson out.
Sunak also - of you recall - pointedly refused to shake hands with Mat Hancock after becoming leader.
So we have someone with form.
And since he became leader, has been beset by in-party squabbling which has included the very active seeking out of an alternative leader to the party, Mordaunt for instance, almost as soon as he took office.
So now we also have someone with motive.
His choice of the 4th of July sounds like a petty personal joke - my bet is he will be going to the US taking his hundreds of millions with him almost as soon as the election is over.
His further choice to visit the Titanic in Belfast just days after announcing the election date *cannot* be a mistake.
Party handlers are far, far too slick at media management and messaging to allow something so obviously signalling defeat.
And that was just the first gaffe of a whole range of others.
My conclusion is that Sunak is actively seeking to destroy his own party in vindictive revenge for its failure to back the spoddy little geek.
He's acting out, no doubt, some kind of revenge on the Winchester boys who I am certain will have bullied him at school.
I kind of agree with you, but in a less tin foily way
Sunak has had a very easy life where success just felt like the next stage for him. I don't think he's known failure in his entire life, probably not even at a small scale. His first ever taste of losing in a big way was when the party picked Liz Truss, Liz..Truss...over him. And right after when he had to walk into the leadership to "fix things" he found out what his party was really like, not as a challenger, but as the head of a dysfunctional, back stabbing moronic group of people who never had his back and kept on behaving like beasts, showing him up and advising him so badly it looks he wants to fail on purpose.
So I think it got to a point where he literally said "fuck this shit" You are all on your own, Im out here, and that probably didnt happen until very recently.
So, I agree with you he's not the "nice' man who paid for everyones furlough, he probably has a very nasty streak in private that hardly ever needs to come out..but it's got to a point where he couldnt care less whether MPs lose their seats or not anymore. Maybe he cares a little about his legacy, but he is young and loaded, Im sure he thinks he still has time to make his mark in AI in California. Soon this will be like an awful summer job you had once.
You say "in a less tin foily way", and that's fine, but it does seem to me that we are mostly in agreement.
>His first ever taste of losing in a big way was when the party picked Liz Truss, Liz..Truss...over him
This absolutely.
That would have stung anyone.
The woman's an idiot.
>the head of a dysfunctional, back stabbing moronic group of people who never had his back and kept on behaving like beasts, showing him up and advising him so badly it looks he wants to fail on purpose.
This exactly.
And as I say, this is his revenge.
>Maybe he cares a little about his legacy,
His legacy was assured the moment an Indian- heritage 'brown' man became the Prime Minister.
That is essentially his legacy, despite the fact that he wasn't voted in at a GE.
That legacy will see him dining out around the world - in the US and in India especially, but other countries too - until he chooses to retire.
I mean this is way more tinfoil than me. But also. I kind of see it, even if most of this is likely a coincidence it will make a good story in a few weeks time.
Well, I did say.
But the only tin-foil aspect to it, note, is that I have no direct evidence for what I've said.
It's speculation, sure, but speculation based on what we do know about his character and events within the party and parliament.
Nothing I've based the speculation on was made up.
And as explanations for the absolute disastrousness of the campaign go, it's as plausible as any others I've seen.
This echoes my thinking. I was betting on an election in early 2025. Based on all other moribund governments' action in my lifetime: MacMillan /Home 1959-64, Callaghan & Healey 1976-79, Major & Lamont 1990-92, Major & Clark 1992-97 and Brown & Darling 2007-10 all took it to the wire in the hope of a miracle, or a mistake by the other side. I wondered if Sunak was trying to emulate Wilson in 1966, by calling the vote during a football tournament. Otherwise, I think the simplest expanation of the observed facts is: things are not going to get better. Well, not quite the simplest - that would be: can't be bothered doing this any more, or (lol) conscience.
Don't forget, the day before the Titanic gaffe, Sunak went to Cardiff and wished Wales well for the Euros. I'm not sure that wasn't to wind us Welsh up, though. Remember him telling us he never thinks of the Brecon Beacons as the Bannau Brycheiniog or Snowdonia as Eryri. So what?
Call me cynical, but I am expecting things to take a turn for the worse in August or September.
And by then, Sunak will be living his new life in California.
>Party handlers are far, far too slick at media management and messaging to allow something so obviously signalling defeat.
The unfortunate fact is that all of the experienced people have either left or been purged from the party since 2019. No one is avoiding these gaffs because either no one has the capability or no one with an adequate voice is able to use it to avoid them. Sunak is the best candidate they had for leader, and they still don't have a viable candidate for who can replace him after the election. The incompetence we see at the top of the party is a reflection of the capability of the rest of the party
>The unfortunate fact is that all of the experienced people have either left or been purged from the party since 2019
Possibly.
But I still do not believe that any party with a media management team of some kind could make such a gaffe by accident.
Especially not one after another after another as it has been in such a short space of time.
The only thing that could excuse is if - like some nightmare scene from The Thick of It - there are factions within the media managers working in effect against one another, undermining the whole.
Conspiracy theories attribute planning, agency and motive where there is none or where there or simple correlation, or plain stupidity, or an accident.
The tories are SO bad it "has" to be intentional. No it doesnt. They are so bad because they have depleted the party of talent, over promoted terrible people, pursued harmful ideological policies (like brexit and austerity) and they have a level of hubris and arrogance that is quite hard to find in other walks of life.
I dont think the tories know theres going to be a world war three and want to avoid being in power then, or hiding some terrible scandal that somehow is worse than the scandals of the last few years...they simply thought they could get away with this forever, and who can blame them, because they have for a long time, but enough is enough. Thats all
Parties may see a silver lining in loosing an election but would always rather win it. 2010 was my first general election and the big brain theory at the time was that Labour would be happy to lose so that the Conservatives would have to deal with the financial crisis and Labour could come back into power in 2015. How did that work out?
Being the incumbent is always an advantage. Unpopular governments are relected all the time, unpopular opposition are rarely elected.
That the Conservatives are performing this badly in the election campaign, is despite their advantages.
The Tories want power, even if it's during some major event. They don't care about anything else.
I would say they are incompetent, out of ideas, with a weak and ineffective leader, that's why it looks like they are throwing it away.
I have absolutely no doubt that all the shit they've sown, they'll blame on Labour but it's no conspiracy theory.
Sunak had limited choices:
1) Now after inflation has fallen
2) August/ September after \*no\* flights have taken off
3) The winter when their supporters don't fancy the rain/frost/snow
The options where never great
I think Sunak thought falling inflation, an interest rate cut and a good national spirit around the England Football team would give him a small but fighting chance. With only the first happening and it not really shifting the dial he is all out of ideas. I don’t believe there is a plan B which is why it looks like they are deliberately trying to lose. The emergency panicked plan seems to be to shout ‘tax’ and ‘supermajority’ as much as possible.
The proof that this isn't the case is the fact that they very clearly and very clearly dropped their attack plan of making thr election about national security. Just before calling the election and in the speech that announced it, Sunak was clearly trying to sell that we were heafing towards a national security crisis and only a Conservative government could handle it. If they *knew* that this was the case and that a labour government was inevitable, they would have kept hammering in about it to have the right to "I told you so" in the next election. This whole line of campaigning really went as far as the national service policy and then just dithered out
I think Sunak is a truly terrible campaigner, but he's also deliberately leaving a poisoned chalice for Labour. E.g. putting NI down just before the election when he knows it isn't affordable.
I don't know about conspiring, but it is pretty evident that things aren't going to get a whole lot better in the next 5 years. Labour can only control what they do via the resources and tools they have. Brexit and COVID only complicated things further here, so it's really about trying to fix the biggest leak first. I'd be amazed if Starmer can fix the big issues quickly, but they'll most likely be 10+ years before those issues are fixed. Then there's the pending/looming issues, like global warming floods, AI impacting jobs and even more cyber attacks which many of the governing body offices aren't remotely ready for.
I speak as an out of work tech consultant who saw many projects with public sector projects always with the same issues: under-skilled and overworked workers, lack of strong IT equipment and just an ever filling sense of things failing.
So to put it lightly: they aren't that clever to set up a loss like that, they've just slow but surely steadied their way to failure (something us Brits are just too used to by now)
I think it was for a much simpler reason - the imminent collapse of Sunak's flagship Rwanda flights policy. With the writing on the wall for another conservative failed policy, calling an election was the lesser of two evils.
The truth will out after the election I'm sure.
I have pondered on whether Sunak had just come to hate his back-stabbing, self-serving, treacherous colleagues that he just decided “oh fuck ‘em all” and called it. Otherwise he’d have spent his summer fighting off the bitching attempts to replace him, and still lose anyway. That’s he’s then gone on to run the second worst campaign in history (May’s being the worst) does suggest perhaps it’s malice, but the reality is it’s most likely incompetence.
My view is that they knew they were going to really struggle to get back in. The only thing they had was timing. They would have looked to see what could they possibly do to make their chances better. If they thought the next 9 months or so we're going to be more harmful than helpful then they call the election. Their time was very limited and for.me, they just came to the realisation that this was the best time to do it from the limited options they had left to them.
My theory is that they know they're fucked regardless of when it's called but doing it now means they can relax over the Summer without the pressure of an impending election, and they've at least stitched up Labour who'll now have to work over the Summer recess. Going out like the nasty bastards they've been in power!
Whether it's a plan or a coincidence, shitting the bed then leaving your partner to wake up and change the sheets is pretty much where we're going with this. Labour will have a very hard time improving things enough for a very fickle electorate before 2029, and there's a lot of stuff they clearly aren't willing to do (e.g. look at reversing Brexit) that might help.
I don't think it's that deep. Just before Sunak called it, there were rumours about *another* set of letters going in to Graham Brady, and by the end of July the Rwanda flights would probably have been stopped *again,* so he was caught between lots of different problems coming up that could be 'solved' by having an election. Ultimately there had to be one in this year, and if he thought the chances were getting worse, not better, why not bite the bullet and get it done?
List of UK recessions
1973-1975
1980-1981
1990-1991
2008-2009
Also two negative quarters in 2020 and 2023
A recession is overdue. The only reason we have not gone full blown is thanks to high levels of immigration. (More people buy more things) and the pressure on the housing market.
The Tories have been fobbing off the public with high levels of immigration and realised they can't do it anymore without spending £££s on infrastructure.
I moved home in 2021. A similar house came on the market last week at 10% less than we paid for ours. Thankfully we downsized to move here, so got the benefit of the uplift on our sale.
It's more likely they know they're going to lose, whatever happens, and believe that removing everyone involved with the last few years puts them in a better position in 5 or 10 years.
If I am being fully conspiracy boris and truss both were taken out by their peers. If someone has power and is petty they could push for the party to be damaged and blame it on the ones who betrayed them.
I think it's true that some in the conservatives would like to lose the election badly, largely so they can point at it say, we should have moved further to the right. That said, I think it's likely a minority, and I don't think that's why the election was called, and I don't think that they wanted to do this badly.
Just before the election was call there was talk of MPs sending in VONC letters. My money is on the idea that Rishi said he would call an election if more MPs were to send in VONC letters, they called his bluff, so he had to call it.
It is not too dissimilar to now, how lots of labour supporters genuinely believe that Labour were untouchable in their last run, and that they are *really* different to the Tories.
The fact that it's obvious to all which party is coming in next also feeds into that rose tinted spectacles crew mindset.
We will most likely be miserable for another 8 years or so, under a Labour government, in some sort of shock that not much has been changed for the better. Meanwhile, super muppet parties will be growing in numbers, and I suspect will be even more of a concern for a lot of people.
They were going to lose whenever they called the election and have been absolutely terrible at politics for a good few years now. Sunak's team are awful and before that we had Truss and Johnson - they've been failing constantly. The only difference now is that there is extra scrutiny and very little goodwill to the Tories.
And, if the plan was to foist the blame for something onto Labour so they can come back later, pushing themselves to electoral oblivion doesn't seem like the best idea.
To be fair, I agree with you that it felt like a weird time to call it, but consensus amongst most people seems to be because they're expecting inflation to rise again/a worsening of the economy and Rwanda to not deliver any joy. So, from that perspective, they chose what they thought was the least worst time (I believe Oliver Dowden pushed for it for this reason, if I remember correctly).
I don't think there's a particularly gruesome dead body they're trying to cover up or pin on someone else. They're just totally inept. Sunak's Debacle-Day, for example, is just him being a bad political operator and you can see glimmers of the same in how he dealt with furlough, eat out to help out and all the rest of it.
If the Tories could take another term of power they absolutely would.
No - they really are just that incompetant - and possibly scared - Sunak is the first priminister "of colour" and sadly I suspect he and his family will receive a lot of nasty threats. Which really sucks actually - butI wouldnt want that job, and you cant overlook personal matters when it comes to politicians motivations for doing things. For the record f the tories - I cant wait for them to be booted out. But the idea its all some massive elaborate plan - nah - I really dont think theyre that competant or long sighted. Just look at the state of things. I put it down to personal things and grabbing everything they can before being booted out. Labour has inherited a mess and it will take a long time to recover if at all. Starmer is not taking the environment seriously by not vetoing new gas and oil exploitation in the north sea - so hes hardly rocking the boat in that regard - and it is the most important issue we face.
The tories are incompetent beyond belief but I think they have realised just how impossible the current situation is to save and so instead of going down with the ship have decided it’s best to stick carrots in the holes and slink off allowing those who want to take over to sink instead
I genuinely think it was because he realised that if he stayed in just a few weeks longer, the Rwanda flights would have to go ahead and he suddenly grew a conscience that some of the people he was set to send would almost certainly not be left alive for long over there.
That and, like you said, the fact that they have fucked the economy so badly, that they don't want to be blamed for the pain we're all going to face over the next 5-10 years. Better let Labour fix their mess and get the blame for it, then they can come back in once the economy is working again and start the whole selfish merry-go-round all over again
I'd say the scarier scenario is that the Tories are just utterly lost and incompetent and we are teetering 1 Labour fuck up away from following the seemingly world wide trend of electing the even further right wing to office in the next election after this.
I'd suggest that, very slowly, the Tories' chickens are coming home to roost.
1. Underinvestment — there's been underinvestment in infrastructure (particularly neglected maintenance) for decades — at least since the 1970s. There are reasons for this failure that become clear. But only now is it showing, as sewers, roads, schools, hospitals and railways disintegrate.
2. Industrial Policy. What Industrial Policy? Industry only pays off in the long term, and the Tories have, instead, dashed for quick cash via financial services.
3. Brexit. A symptom, rather than a cause, Brexit was a nonsensical policy, except as a nationalistic electoral wheeze. It bought the Tories another few years in power, but at what cost to the nation?
4. Corruption. It's always lurking at the margins of politics, but the Tories have been entirely consumed by it. While you can get away with this sh¡t for a while, eventually, the truth will out. And it has.
5. Governance. There's a flavour of libertarian who actually feels that government (any government!) is a bad thing. "Instead of abolishing it, just do it so badly it's useless" could be a deliberate strategy.
6. Demographics. The Tory literally base is old. And they're dying. Their priorities are driven by their supporters—so the proposition, "Short term disruption for a better future" (which is baked into housebuilding, HS2, infrastructure renewal, green investment as so on) is unappealing. It's always a short-term outlook, not focused on the future.
These structural Tory challenges are all squeezing relentlessly—the consequences can't be avoided. They've run out of road. They literally can't agree where to go.
You might have a point about something worse coming down the track, and that influencing the timing of the election, but that's more a "oh shit this moment might actually be our best chance" than a "we need to get out of dodge right the fuck now and make someone else carry the can".
There certainly are a whole bunch of colossal shit shows lined up for later in the year - the US elections, food price increases and shortages, and the political problems in France are the headlining ones that are pretty well baked in at this point, and there are also the ongoing looming threats to... Everything, like China's continued posturing over Taiwan and the risks of escalation in Ukraine. Doubtless too that when Labour get in and start digging, there will be some horrific things buried by the Tories that they'll unearth, and it may be that those as yet unknown scandals are currently reaching the point that they're going to come out anyways.
However, I don't think any of that constitutes a reason for the Tory party, i.e. the people who see themselves as the default, natural rulers of this country, to deliberately attempt to lose the election.
While part of me still quite likes the idea that some sleeper agent from one of the other parties has gotten into the Tory Comms team, the reality is that they genuinely *are* this shit at this.
Partly that's a function of the information space they inhabit, dominated as it is by the Telegraph and Daily Mail, both papers which have long since parted company with reality (seriously, if ever you want to stare into The Abyss, have a read of Alister Heath's and David Frost's columns) and which in their experience also cover for their screwups and make them go away. It's also partly the arrogance that comes with being Part Of The Ruling Class - having gone to public school and Oxbridge and then on to careers in high finance or politics without so much as a moment of personal failure to teach you how to deal with it, nor that will force you to question and examine your ideals and ideology.
This is why Sunak gets so tetchy when challenged - he's never had to develop the mental or emotional toolkit to deal with the possibility that he might be wrong, and so he just gets angry and defensive.
This is why they initially just went ahead and ran the attack ad with the roulette wheel despite the betting scandal having erupted - in their heads they genuinely didn't see anything wrong with those bets, and thought that the roulette and was a really good idea - after all, it was one of theirs.
So no, I don't think they're deliberately trying to lose - they're just that bad at this.
I don’t mind Mr Sunak. He’s ok. I much prefer him to Mr Johnson. He does come across like he doesn’t want to do the job though.
I don’t even think anybody really wants the job of being the next party in power. Look at how uninspiring everyone is.
To be fair, yes I think they are. I don’t mind cheap and cheerful and I know to get air time to talk sensibly there sometimes has to be a hook.
I’m personally unhappy about how vague their women’s rights are but that’s just my preference of policies.
It's broadly that but you feel it's been largely by luck rather than judgement. What they will broadly need is Starmer to be so buried by the mess they've left by Christmas; Murdoch and Harmsworth and Co at the Mail can start a mass pile on. Trump wins in the US and turns a blind eye to a genocide of Democrat voters that don't proverbially bend the knee to him. Macrons gamble in France fails. Slowly the UK starts to look like the odd person out and the Reformed Conservatives led by Farage sail to an easy win due to a notably minority of the electorate being as thick as shit and reasoning that believing in fairy stories will pay their monthly bills.
Sorry, but they are really just divided and totally incompetent. Most of the relatively sensible and competent Tories were driven out by Johnson in 2019, and it’s been a mess since at least then. There’s no conspiracy here.
i think it was the previous one that they were supposed to lose, and no one has had any ideas or any real interest in governing and it's permeated through the party structure.
having started with a sensible moderate comment to keep you reading, the only conspiracy theory i think makes sense is that some secret cabal of world leaders has decreed that its labour/starmer's turn.
I'll try help, what in the last 5 years has shown you that they're smart enough to pull that off? Their public school hubris alone would make them think they alone could solve the problem.
They have left an 18bil hole in the public finances and they know it. It's important to keep pointing this out. Also remember if it was labour that caused the financial crash then it was the tories that caused the war/COVID (using their logic against them!)
The IFS have stated they have a massive hole in the spending plan, basically whoever gets in is screwed, they cam blame Labour if they don't do well and disavow all knowledge of their self made disaster. It's cynical and it's nasty.
Some of you give the Tories way too much credit. Not everything is a conspiracy. Sometimes people are just incompetent
Incompetent or malicious - that's been the question for the last few years it seems.
Both. Reducing deprived areas budget by 32% and affluent areas by 3% during austerity is absolutely malicious. Running a Brexit campaign that included a facsimile of the NHS logo on their advertising is criminally malicious. They're also incompetent fucks. Every post Brexit trade deal shows that, the car crash interviews on basic questions shows that. It's the worst of the options, incompetent and malicious.
Suspending the belief for a second that high-ranking Tories only care about themselves rather than the party, I think this question is a valid one. In the pessimistic sense that things are still likely to get worse rather than better with how it’s all been setup, Tory strategy could be that Labour has to deal with the worst of the fallout during its first years in office, without seeing the benefits of all this work before the next election. All the problems of the strikes, trains, HS2, housing, interest/debt, budget, etc. are all immediately on the Labour plate rather than things the Tories have to solve before the required election date. Ergo, Labour has all these fires to fight even before implementing their own agenda, and the Tory bet could be they won’t be able to attain a standard of living better than what Britain had before the pandemic. Then, in 5 years the Tories will just comoletely ignore they were in office from 2020-24, and point to how the 2010s under Tory governance were better than the 2020s under Labour’s governance. Once again, this is entirely dependent that current leadership actually cares about the party, as it’ll never actually benefit them personally, but it’s a “rip off the bandaid and run” strategy to get back in the running for 2029.
Hanlon’s Razor - “Never attribute to malice that which is equally well explained by stupidity”.
Boris’ razor: incompetence and malice are not mutually exclusive, especially when discussing the behaviour of tories.
Good point, well made.
Sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice
All started in 2019 - Johnson and Cummings got rid of anyone who wouldn't do what they were told - Sajid Javid being a prime example - and the party was largely populated by inexperienced, though very loyal, brexiters basically. That might have been "ok" under Johnson and Cummings, both big characters with strong political instincts. But rishi sunak has neither of those. He isn't popular with the electorate, and he can't see which way the wind is blowing most of the time. With people like Gove stepping down, they are left with the blind leading the blind. They've also received staggeringly small volumes.of donations with which to run their operations - less money then the lib dems have received I think I read somewhere. That won't help either. If you want a conspiracy, I think rishi called the election because he was about to face a vote of no confidence, or some other internal issue, and called the election to make sure that if he goes down, everyone else goes down with him.
I think people let the Tories off an awful lot by blaming incompetence. A lot of the last 14 years was intentional.
This is what I want to say. Their "incompetence" sure has benefited them as a party until now.
Policy decisions are normally ideological, and so, if your ideology is different to the tories this is where maliciousness comes into play. That ideology also *in part* impacts on their response to events so some degree of maliviousness there. What I think *all* have been stunned by is how untalented and poor at dealing with unexpected (or predicting expected) events they are. This is where the incompetence argument comes in. They are not mutually exclusive factors, and on informs the perception we have of the other.
Agree. I work in Whitehall and I really think they have just run out of rope…
I don't really believe in conspiracy anything to be honest. But this level of perceived incompetence seems maddening to me. Obviously I am one point of view here.
Its exactly how incompetent they've been for at least 8 years so I don't know why it would be unbelievable.
I think it's the fact that since May it feels like it's been a fever dream to be honest.
I think there is something to be said for the idea of being "on a roll". It's like when things are going well, you relax, you have the room to experiment with new ideas, some things are already on your side which makes other things easier. The opposite is also true. When things are going badly, you panic and make bad decisions, you're stressed out and come across annoyed and unlikeable, your resources are stretched, etc etc. I think that's what's happening.
I think calling the election now was more cock up than plan. Inflation falling felt like a good moment to a PM in danger of being removed.
It's not just incompetence, they are also dysfunctional, clan infighting within the party from before Brexit. Brexit was supposed to resolve this, but it destroyed the UK and not all Tories really wanted that on their heads. Cycling through incompetent PMs to one who just doesn't give a sh\*t because he's so rich. What you are seeing is not the result of a long game plan, but the natural result of the Peter Principle compounded by Murphy's Law.
Well you clearly do believe in conspiracy theories.
It's quite disappointing really, when I first followed politics I thought it would be more House of Cards like with 4D chess and grand plans Every year since then I grow more and more disappointed that there is no shadow cabal, or mastermind pulling the strings, they're just shit I thought The Thick Of It was supposed to be a comedy not a documentary
"Never ascribe to malice what can be put down as simple dipshittery."
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. - Hanlon’s Razor
I’d generally agree *if* Starmer didn’t have similar neoliberal politics. I just think it’s a handover - the passing of the baton to someone that will have more political power.
They didn't need to *try* to lose this election, they could have continued to bumble along and not done anything specific to appeal to anyone new and it would have just happened, so there's no reason to try to intentionally lose. If they perform at the worse end of the range of current possibilities they risk being wiped out to the point that rebuilding will be harder than it really needed to be, so there's a very good reason *not* to try to intentionally lose. People tend to want to find patterns that explain things - "this is happening, therefore someone wanted this to happen", but a lot of the time the people in charge are just fucking incompetent. The simple answer is that this election and every stupid thing they've done is the best the current crop of Tories are capable of.
“Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity” honestly they’re just shit at this, they’ve churned through or rejected many of their more experienced political operators, their ideology is fractured and contradictory, and they’re also just ‘tired’ (out of ideas and excuses) should have been put out to pasture years ago
This is not adequately explained by stupidity though? It's sp bizarre to see Rishi deliberately taking Ls after Ls. He might want to leave the ship early. Not sure about others
Stupidity isn’t quite the right word, I think it’s more he lacks any real political awareness - no sense for the optics of a situation and that keeps backfiring Though he’s certainly surrounded himself by fuckwits which doesn’t help either
Every time I see him online, he always looks and acts like a robot. Genuinely feels like a skit in which I'm being pranked
No I just think that Rishi legitimately thought if he lowered inflation and had the Rwanda bill passed then the public would somehow back them. Shows how completely out of touch the party is, they’re on a different planet.
They are not trying to lose but they know it's inevitable so they're not exactly trying their best to win either. What I do believe they have done, somewhat in line with what you are suggesting, is push a load of issues down the road for Labour to deal with, with the intent of shortening Labours period of incumbancy. Or at the least planted rhetoric now with which to beat LAB with post election. Childcare changes that probably aren't sustainable schedule into the next government. Inflated house prices and avoided drops with stamp duty changes. Rwanda instead of meaningful action (I don't care enough about this issue to know what meaningful action is but I know it ain't Rwanda) Compounding impact of cost of living crisis eventually drowning the bottom third (or more) of society. 'Promising' to remove National Insurance.
One theory is that they have haemorraged so much cash that if they didn't have it now they wouldn't just be morally bankrupt, they'd be literally bankrupt. And deep down they were likely hoping for a worst scenario of Labour not having enough seats for a majority and a subsequent election being called. If the polls are accurate their best case scenario is the worst result ever and the worst case scenario is to be virtually wiped out. A loss so catastrophically bad that it would ordinarily take a decade or more to rebuild but many of their usual voters simply will not have that long left. And it's doubtful that newspaper industry has that long left too. So my belief is that the Tories are finished.
Tories knew it was game over after Liz Truss. There's nothing the Tories could do or promise that would make up for the shambolic state of the country after 14 years of lying to parliament, COVID parties, Truss crashing the economy and backroom sleaze and corrupt contracts for their mates. The people aren't even enthusiastic about other parties, they are just really, really angry at the Tories. On a personal level Sunak clearly wants out. He can do a Nick Clegg earning a ton for a piss easy job at some tech company in California. Sunak's heart was never in politics n the first place. There's no obvious replacement candidate and the party is trapped in an existential political quagmire they won't escape from any time soon.
Nah. First, it's spelled 'lose', with a single o. The Tory leadership is incompetent, and has been at least since May was ousted. No need to assume malice in what is explained by stupidity. And it's the nature of politics that the next government is going to face the mess that the current one created, and they may get blamed for it. That's how it goes, everywhere.
>has been at least since May was ousted. I think you might be looking back with rose tinted glasses there. Theresa May failed in virtually everything she set out to achieve and lost her majority through incompetence. The Tory leadership has been a mess since the Brexit vote. It was masked by Boris populism, Jeremy Corbyn then the pandemic for a while but it's always been there under the surface.
Agreed. I was going to follow "at least May" with "or Cameron", but just left it out. I think all commentators agree that May is a serious politician, not a charlatan like Johnson. I think she was seriously misguided in taking on delivering Brexit, a decision she disagreed with in the first place. I don't know if she was just blinded by the idea of becoming PM. Her own explanation was that since Brexit won by four precentage points in the referendum, it had to be implemented, so she was going to make the best of it. The trouble is that a wrong decision is still the wrong decision, even if it won the popular vote, and that the brexiteers of her own party were not acting in good faith and she couldn't bring them in line.
May is a serious politician yes and on paper she had all the credentials to succeed, but all of that means nothing if you don't get results. A bit like this England performance we are about to witness....
"no need to assume malice in what is explained by stupidity" sounds like something I'd say to a trainee at work and I'll be using this. Yes it is lose not loose. You're correct.
What Wilkinson's Sword don't want you to know: Occam’s razor: Keep it simple, stupid. Hanlon’s razor: People make mistakes. This doesn’t make them evil. Hitchen’s razor: If it can’t be backed up, dismiss it. Grice’s razor: Understand the true meaning, not the face value.
The odd thing about Occam’s razor is that its logical meaning is “some shaving gear owned by a guy called Occam”
Truly the cutting-edge of philosophy!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor
Even if this was the case it's likely the new government would discover it soon, and then it would be their equivalent of the "there's no money left" note, on steroids.
Sorry OP, I will be of no help as I am thinking the same. I am retired and have lived through two major recessions. I am seeing all the same signs. People being made redundant and struggling to get jobs, cost of living crisis, etc. We would have had a recession earlier if it wasn't for massive immigration. More people buy more products. The Conservatives know this, hence the massive amount of immigration, but the public are seeing through the lies. Unfortunately governments cannot seem to grow the UK economy without selling off public services or immigration. I am also of the belief that growth cannot be infinite, especially in mature economies. The only people who benefit from immigration are the super rich and business owners who benefit from cheap labour. Rishi wants out. Starmer has no comprehension of how bad the situation is. To quote Liam Byrne in 2010 "There is no money".
I'm only 35 and I'm convinced this is the case. Just feel like some sort of conspiracy nut case. I don't know exactly What's not been told to us, but there's something.
Well, they made a big thing about stocking up on emergency supplies a few weeks ago..
Aggregate GDP growth isn't quite the same as GDP per capita growth. The lattee has been declining for a while now. Average person is poorer. Select individuals at the top have become MUCH richer, thus inflating the average
Exactly. Governments won't use GDP per capita adjusted for inflation as it paints a very depressing picture. I think from memory, the last time we had "proper" growth was prior to 2008.
US gdp per capita in 2007: $48k US gdp per capita in 2024: $85k **UK gdp per capita in 2007: $50k** **UK gdp per capita in 2024: $51k** Growth my ass. It gets even worse. At some point in 2007, £1 = $2 £1 barely buys $1.20 these days
And why does no one on Question Time ever ask THIS question about growth per capita or how the government plan to grow the economy without relying on immigration or a booming housing market. I never went to University (I'm old and only 3% of my generation went to University), but I sometimes think I have a better understanding of economics and what is better for the country as a whole and not just fat cats. I am almost not sorry I will probably be dead in 20 years, less if I make average life expectancy. I fear for the future. I am currently reading a book called The Spirit Level. It was written way back in 2009, but still relevant.
Nah, there is no tactics involved. The party is split and can't govern. Delaying any longer and Rishi would face no confidence vote. However bad things are for them now, going into an election with no confidence hanging over leader would be a total disaster.
>I'm almost completely convinced the Tories are trying to *lose* this election on purpose and the election was called at this time. Specifically to *lose* ... Please someone try and convince me I'm incorrect. No, I think you're absolutely correct - sorry. Ultimately, Europe has - yet again - been the undoing of the Conservative party, as it has done continually going all the way back to Ted Heath in the 1970s. Here's my conspiracy theory for you - a bit tinfoil, sure, but it feels right: Sunak is vindictive - we know this because it almost certainly he that released the photo of the garden party that more or less forced Johnson out. Sunak also - of you recall - pointedly refused to shake hands with Mat Hancock after becoming leader. So we have someone with form. And since he became leader, has been beset by in-party squabbling which has included the very active seeking out of an alternative leader to the party, Mordaunt for instance, almost as soon as he took office. So now we also have someone with motive. His choice of the 4th of July sounds like a petty personal joke - my bet is he will be going to the US taking his hundreds of millions with him almost as soon as the election is over. His further choice to visit the Titanic in Belfast just days after announcing the election date *cannot* be a mistake. Party handlers are far, far too slick at media management and messaging to allow something so obviously signalling defeat. And that was just the first gaffe of a whole range of others. My conclusion is that Sunak is actively seeking to destroy his own party in vindictive revenge for its failure to back the spoddy little geek. He's acting out, no doubt, some kind of revenge on the Winchester boys who I am certain will have bullied him at school.
I kind of agree with you, but in a less tin foily way Sunak has had a very easy life where success just felt like the next stage for him. I don't think he's known failure in his entire life, probably not even at a small scale. His first ever taste of losing in a big way was when the party picked Liz Truss, Liz..Truss...over him. And right after when he had to walk into the leadership to "fix things" he found out what his party was really like, not as a challenger, but as the head of a dysfunctional, back stabbing moronic group of people who never had his back and kept on behaving like beasts, showing him up and advising him so badly it looks he wants to fail on purpose. So I think it got to a point where he literally said "fuck this shit" You are all on your own, Im out here, and that probably didnt happen until very recently. So, I agree with you he's not the "nice' man who paid for everyones furlough, he probably has a very nasty streak in private that hardly ever needs to come out..but it's got to a point where he couldnt care less whether MPs lose their seats or not anymore. Maybe he cares a little about his legacy, but he is young and loaded, Im sure he thinks he still has time to make his mark in AI in California. Soon this will be like an awful summer job you had once.
You say "in a less tin foily way", and that's fine, but it does seem to me that we are mostly in agreement. >His first ever taste of losing in a big way was when the party picked Liz Truss, Liz..Truss...over him This absolutely. That would have stung anyone. The woman's an idiot. >the head of a dysfunctional, back stabbing moronic group of people who never had his back and kept on behaving like beasts, showing him up and advising him so badly it looks he wants to fail on purpose. This exactly. And as I say, this is his revenge. >Maybe he cares a little about his legacy, His legacy was assured the moment an Indian- heritage 'brown' man became the Prime Minister. That is essentially his legacy, despite the fact that he wasn't voted in at a GE. That legacy will see him dining out around the world - in the US and in India especially, but other countries too - until he chooses to retire.
I mean this is way more tinfoil than me. But also. I kind of see it, even if most of this is likely a coincidence it will make a good story in a few weeks time.
Well, I did say. But the only tin-foil aspect to it, note, is that I have no direct evidence for what I've said. It's speculation, sure, but speculation based on what we do know about his character and events within the party and parliament. Nothing I've based the speculation on was made up. And as explanations for the absolute disastrousness of the campaign go, it's as plausible as any others I've seen.
This echoes my thinking. I was betting on an election in early 2025. Based on all other moribund governments' action in my lifetime: MacMillan /Home 1959-64, Callaghan & Healey 1976-79, Major & Lamont 1990-92, Major & Clark 1992-97 and Brown & Darling 2007-10 all took it to the wire in the hope of a miracle, or a mistake by the other side. I wondered if Sunak was trying to emulate Wilson in 1966, by calling the vote during a football tournament. Otherwise, I think the simplest expanation of the observed facts is: things are not going to get better. Well, not quite the simplest - that would be: can't be bothered doing this any more, or (lol) conscience. Don't forget, the day before the Titanic gaffe, Sunak went to Cardiff and wished Wales well for the Euros. I'm not sure that wasn't to wind us Welsh up, though. Remember him telling us he never thinks of the Brecon Beacons as the Bannau Brycheiniog or Snowdonia as Eryri. So what? Call me cynical, but I am expecting things to take a turn for the worse in August or September. And by then, Sunak will be living his new life in California.
Interesting post.
>Party handlers are far, far too slick at media management and messaging to allow something so obviously signalling defeat. The unfortunate fact is that all of the experienced people have either left or been purged from the party since 2019. No one is avoiding these gaffs because either no one has the capability or no one with an adequate voice is able to use it to avoid them. Sunak is the best candidate they had for leader, and they still don't have a viable candidate for who can replace him after the election. The incompetence we see at the top of the party is a reflection of the capability of the rest of the party
>The unfortunate fact is that all of the experienced people have either left or been purged from the party since 2019 Possibly. But I still do not believe that any party with a media management team of some kind could make such a gaffe by accident. Especially not one after another after another as it has been in such a short space of time. The only thing that could excuse is if - like some nightmare scene from The Thick of It - there are factions within the media managers working in effect against one another, undermining the whole.
The inner rumblings say that the Tory leadership (i.e. Sunak) is getting advice from the party apparatus, but they're choosing to ignore it.
Conspiracy theories attribute planning, agency and motive where there is none or where there or simple correlation, or plain stupidity, or an accident. The tories are SO bad it "has" to be intentional. No it doesnt. They are so bad because they have depleted the party of talent, over promoted terrible people, pursued harmful ideological policies (like brexit and austerity) and they have a level of hubris and arrogance that is quite hard to find in other walks of life. I dont think the tories know theres going to be a world war three and want to avoid being in power then, or hiding some terrible scandal that somehow is worse than the scandals of the last few years...they simply thought they could get away with this forever, and who can blame them, because they have for a long time, but enough is enough. Thats all
Parties may see a silver lining in loosing an election but would always rather win it. 2010 was my first general election and the big brain theory at the time was that Labour would be happy to lose so that the Conservatives would have to deal with the financial crisis and Labour could come back into power in 2015. How did that work out? Being the incumbent is always an advantage. Unpopular governments are relected all the time, unpopular opposition are rarely elected. That the Conservatives are performing this badly in the election campaign, is despite their advantages.
The Tories want power, even if it's during some major event. They don't care about anything else. I would say they are incompetent, out of ideas, with a weak and ineffective leader, that's why it looks like they are throwing it away.
I have absolutely no doubt that all the shit they've sown, they'll blame on Labour but it's no conspiracy theory. Sunak had limited choices: 1) Now after inflation has fallen 2) August/ September after \*no\* flights have taken off 3) The winter when their supporters don't fancy the rain/frost/snow The options where never great
I think Sunak thought falling inflation, an interest rate cut and a good national spirit around the England Football team would give him a small but fighting chance. With only the first happening and it not really shifting the dial he is all out of ideas. I don’t believe there is a plan B which is why it looks like they are deliberately trying to lose. The emergency panicked plan seems to be to shout ‘tax’ and ‘supermajority’ as much as possible.
The proof that this isn't the case is the fact that they very clearly and very clearly dropped their attack plan of making thr election about national security. Just before calling the election and in the speech that announced it, Sunak was clearly trying to sell that we were heafing towards a national security crisis and only a Conservative government could handle it. If they *knew* that this was the case and that a labour government was inevitable, they would have kept hammering in about it to have the right to "I told you so" in the next election. This whole line of campaigning really went as far as the national service policy and then just dithered out
I think Sunak is a truly terrible campaigner, but he's also deliberately leaving a poisoned chalice for Labour. E.g. putting NI down just before the election when he knows it isn't affordable.
I don't know about conspiring, but it is pretty evident that things aren't going to get a whole lot better in the next 5 years. Labour can only control what they do via the resources and tools they have. Brexit and COVID only complicated things further here, so it's really about trying to fix the biggest leak first. I'd be amazed if Starmer can fix the big issues quickly, but they'll most likely be 10+ years before those issues are fixed. Then there's the pending/looming issues, like global warming floods, AI impacting jobs and even more cyber attacks which many of the governing body offices aren't remotely ready for. I speak as an out of work tech consultant who saw many projects with public sector projects always with the same issues: under-skilled and overworked workers, lack of strong IT equipment and just an ever filling sense of things failing. So to put it lightly: they aren't that clever to set up a loss like that, they've just slow but surely steadied their way to failure (something us Brits are just too used to by now)
I think it was for a much simpler reason - the imminent collapse of Sunak's flagship Rwanda flights policy. With the writing on the wall for another conservative failed policy, calling an election was the lesser of two evils. The truth will out after the election I'm sure.
You may possibly be right. Time will tell.
I have pondered on whether Sunak had just come to hate his back-stabbing, self-serving, treacherous colleagues that he just decided “oh fuck ‘em all” and called it. Otherwise he’d have spent his summer fighting off the bitching attempts to replace him, and still lose anyway. That’s he’s then gone on to run the second worst campaign in history (May’s being the worst) does suggest perhaps it’s malice, but the reality is it’s most likely incompetence.
My view is that they knew they were going to really struggle to get back in. The only thing they had was timing. They would have looked to see what could they possibly do to make their chances better. If they thought the next 9 months or so we're going to be more harmful than helpful then they call the election. Their time was very limited and for.me, they just came to the realisation that this was the best time to do it from the limited options they had left to them.
Got to get the kids settled before the Fall Semester starts.
😅. I wish this wasn't true
My theory is that they know they're fucked regardless of when it's called but doing it now means they can relax over the Summer without the pressure of an impending election, and they've at least stitched up Labour who'll now have to work over the Summer recess. Going out like the nasty bastards they've been in power!
Whether it's a plan or a coincidence, shitting the bed then leaving your partner to wake up and change the sheets is pretty much where we're going with this. Labour will have a very hard time improving things enough for a very fickle electorate before 2029, and there's a lot of stuff they clearly aren't willing to do (e.g. look at reversing Brexit) that might help.
I don't think it's that deep. Just before Sunak called it, there were rumours about *another* set of letters going in to Graham Brady, and by the end of July the Rwanda flights would probably have been stopped *again,* so he was caught between lots of different problems coming up that could be 'solved' by having an election. Ultimately there had to be one in this year, and if he thought the chances were getting worse, not better, why not bite the bullet and get it done?
[удалено]
Fair
Perhaps there's some momey riding on it. 'They" may stand to gain if the UK economy surges for example. There are other means but I'm no expert.
So your suggesting it would be something like the 2008 economic crash
List of UK recessions 1973-1975 1980-1981 1990-1991 2008-2009 Also two negative quarters in 2020 and 2023 A recession is overdue. The only reason we have not gone full blown is thanks to high levels of immigration. (More people buy more things) and the pressure on the housing market. The Tories have been fobbing off the public with high levels of immigration and realised they can't do it anymore without spending £££s on infrastructure. I moved home in 2021. A similar house came on the market last week at 10% less than we paid for ours. Thankfully we downsized to move here, so got the benefit of the uplift on our sale.
Yes, I agree with everything you said there
It's more likely they know they're going to lose, whatever happens, and believe that removing everyone involved with the last few years puts them in a better position in 5 or 10 years.
If I am being fully conspiracy boris and truss both were taken out by their peers. If someone has power and is petty they could push for the party to be damaged and blame it on the ones who betrayed them.
I think it's true that some in the conservatives would like to lose the election badly, largely so they can point at it say, we should have moved further to the right. That said, I think it's likely a minority, and I don't think that's why the election was called, and I don't think that they wanted to do this badly. Just before the election was call there was talk of MPs sending in VONC letters. My money is on the idea that Rishi said he would call an election if more MPs were to send in VONC letters, they called his bluff, so he had to call it.
It is not too dissimilar to now, how lots of labour supporters genuinely believe that Labour were untouchable in their last run, and that they are *really* different to the Tories. The fact that it's obvious to all which party is coming in next also feeds into that rose tinted spectacles crew mindset. We will most likely be miserable for another 8 years or so, under a Labour government, in some sort of shock that not much has been changed for the better. Meanwhile, super muppet parties will be growing in numbers, and I suspect will be even more of a concern for a lot of people.
The Daily Mail and Express have certainly not given up judging by their bat shit crazy headlines
They were going to lose whenever they called the election and have been absolutely terrible at politics for a good few years now. Sunak's team are awful and before that we had Truss and Johnson - they've been failing constantly. The only difference now is that there is extra scrutiny and very little goodwill to the Tories. And, if the plan was to foist the blame for something onto Labour so they can come back later, pushing themselves to electoral oblivion doesn't seem like the best idea. To be fair, I agree with you that it felt like a weird time to call it, but consensus amongst most people seems to be because they're expecting inflation to rise again/a worsening of the economy and Rwanda to not deliver any joy. So, from that perspective, they chose what they thought was the least worst time (I believe Oliver Dowden pushed for it for this reason, if I remember correctly). I don't think there's a particularly gruesome dead body they're trying to cover up or pin on someone else. They're just totally inept. Sunak's Debacle-Day, for example, is just him being a bad political operator and you can see glimmers of the same in how he dealt with furlough, eat out to help out and all the rest of it. If the Tories could take another term of power they absolutely would.
No - they really are just that incompetant - and possibly scared - Sunak is the first priminister "of colour" and sadly I suspect he and his family will receive a lot of nasty threats. Which really sucks actually - butI wouldnt want that job, and you cant overlook personal matters when it comes to politicians motivations for doing things. For the record f the tories - I cant wait for them to be booted out. But the idea its all some massive elaborate plan - nah - I really dont think theyre that competant or long sighted. Just look at the state of things. I put it down to personal things and grabbing everything they can before being booted out. Labour has inherited a mess and it will take a long time to recover if at all. Starmer is not taking the environment seriously by not vetoing new gas and oil exploitation in the north sea - so hes hardly rocking the boat in that regard - and it is the most important issue we face.
The tories are incompetent beyond belief but I think they have realised just how impossible the current situation is to save and so instead of going down with the ship have decided it’s best to stick carrots in the holes and slink off allowing those who want to take over to sink instead
I genuinely think it was because he realised that if he stayed in just a few weeks longer, the Rwanda flights would have to go ahead and he suddenly grew a conscience that some of the people he was set to send would almost certainly not be left alive for long over there. That and, like you said, the fact that they have fucked the economy so badly, that they don't want to be blamed for the pain we're all going to face over the next 5-10 years. Better let Labour fix their mess and get the blame for it, then they can come back in once the economy is working again and start the whole selfish merry-go-round all over again
I hope you're enjoying your 'guy feeling'. Get stuck in.
I agree, I feel like they should either be made to clean up the mess or be put in jail.
I'd say the scarier scenario is that the Tories are just utterly lost and incompetent and we are teetering 1 Labour fuck up away from following the seemingly world wide trend of electing the even further right wing to office in the next election after this.
I'd suggest that, very slowly, the Tories' chickens are coming home to roost. 1. Underinvestment — there's been underinvestment in infrastructure (particularly neglected maintenance) for decades — at least since the 1970s. There are reasons for this failure that become clear. But only now is it showing, as sewers, roads, schools, hospitals and railways disintegrate. 2. Industrial Policy. What Industrial Policy? Industry only pays off in the long term, and the Tories have, instead, dashed for quick cash via financial services. 3. Brexit. A symptom, rather than a cause, Brexit was a nonsensical policy, except as a nationalistic electoral wheeze. It bought the Tories another few years in power, but at what cost to the nation? 4. Corruption. It's always lurking at the margins of politics, but the Tories have been entirely consumed by it. While you can get away with this sh¡t for a while, eventually, the truth will out. And it has. 5. Governance. There's a flavour of libertarian who actually feels that government (any government!) is a bad thing. "Instead of abolishing it, just do it so badly it's useless" could be a deliberate strategy. 6. Demographics. The Tory literally base is old. And they're dying. Their priorities are driven by their supporters—so the proposition, "Short term disruption for a better future" (which is baked into housebuilding, HS2, infrastructure renewal, green investment as so on) is unappealing. It's always a short-term outlook, not focused on the future. These structural Tory challenges are all squeezing relentlessly—the consequences can't be avoided. They've run out of road. They literally can't agree where to go.
The Grenfell Inquiry Report is due in September….
You might have a point about something worse coming down the track, and that influencing the timing of the election, but that's more a "oh shit this moment might actually be our best chance" than a "we need to get out of dodge right the fuck now and make someone else carry the can". There certainly are a whole bunch of colossal shit shows lined up for later in the year - the US elections, food price increases and shortages, and the political problems in France are the headlining ones that are pretty well baked in at this point, and there are also the ongoing looming threats to... Everything, like China's continued posturing over Taiwan and the risks of escalation in Ukraine. Doubtless too that when Labour get in and start digging, there will be some horrific things buried by the Tories that they'll unearth, and it may be that those as yet unknown scandals are currently reaching the point that they're going to come out anyways. However, I don't think any of that constitutes a reason for the Tory party, i.e. the people who see themselves as the default, natural rulers of this country, to deliberately attempt to lose the election. While part of me still quite likes the idea that some sleeper agent from one of the other parties has gotten into the Tory Comms team, the reality is that they genuinely *are* this shit at this. Partly that's a function of the information space they inhabit, dominated as it is by the Telegraph and Daily Mail, both papers which have long since parted company with reality (seriously, if ever you want to stare into The Abyss, have a read of Alister Heath's and David Frost's columns) and which in their experience also cover for their screwups and make them go away. It's also partly the arrogance that comes with being Part Of The Ruling Class - having gone to public school and Oxbridge and then on to careers in high finance or politics without so much as a moment of personal failure to teach you how to deal with it, nor that will force you to question and examine your ideals and ideology. This is why Sunak gets so tetchy when challenged - he's never had to develop the mental or emotional toolkit to deal with the possibility that he might be wrong, and so he just gets angry and defensive. This is why they initially just went ahead and ran the attack ad with the roulette wheel despite the betting scandal having erupted - in their heads they genuinely didn't see anything wrong with those bets, and thought that the roulette and was a really good idea - after all, it was one of theirs. So no, I don't think they're deliberately trying to lose - they're just that bad at this.
I don’t mind Mr Sunak. He’s ok. I much prefer him to Mr Johnson. He does come across like he doesn’t want to do the job though. I don’t even think anybody really wants the job of being the next party in power. Look at how uninspiring everyone is.
The LibDems are trying their hardest.
To be fair, yes I think they are. I don’t mind cheap and cheerful and I know to get air time to talk sensibly there sometimes has to be a hook. I’m personally unhappy about how vague their women’s rights are but that’s just my preference of policies.
It's broadly that but you feel it's been largely by luck rather than judgement. What they will broadly need is Starmer to be so buried by the mess they've left by Christmas; Murdoch and Harmsworth and Co at the Mail can start a mass pile on. Trump wins in the US and turns a blind eye to a genocide of Democrat voters that don't proverbially bend the knee to him. Macrons gamble in France fails. Slowly the UK starts to look like the odd person out and the Reformed Conservatives led by Farage sail to an easy win due to a notably minority of the electorate being as thick as shit and reasoning that believing in fairy stories will pay their monthly bills.
Sorry, but they are really just divided and totally incompetent. Most of the relatively sensible and competent Tories were driven out by Johnson in 2019, and it’s been a mess since at least then. There’s no conspiracy here.
Sunak blindsided the party by calling the election, I reckon enough letters had gone into Brady and a leadership contest was imminent.
i think it was the previous one that they were supposed to lose, and no one has had any ideas or any real interest in governing and it's permeated through the party structure. having started with a sensible moderate comment to keep you reading, the only conspiracy theory i think makes sense is that some secret cabal of world leaders has decreed that its labour/starmer's turn.
I'll try help, what in the last 5 years has shown you that they're smart enough to pull that off? Their public school hubris alone would make them think they alone could solve the problem.
They have left an 18bil hole in the public finances and they know it. It's important to keep pointing this out. Also remember if it was labour that caused the financial crash then it was the tories that caused the war/COVID (using their logic against them!)
The IFS have stated they have a massive hole in the spending plan, basically whoever gets in is screwed, they cam blame Labour if they don't do well and disavow all knowledge of their self made disaster. It's cynical and it's nasty.