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I mean, it's still possible they come 4th, if they have a few point swing to the Lib-Dems and Reform gains a few points from them its absolutely possible and if anyone can achieve it Sunak can.
In 2015, UKIP got 12.6% of the vote share but only 1 seat. Lib Dems only got 7.9% but won 8 seats.
I imagine we will see similar with Reform this year.
We had a referendum on PR and the British public were too stupid to go for it. I tried explaining the Maths behind it in the office at work and people didn't get it.
Massively lower immigration over years and end the feedback loop of trying to important Newcastle every year (annual net) just try squeeze 0.1 percent GDP on the newspaper headlines. It’s not viable or a sound strategy.
Look at Poland. A darling of the EU, yet by you lots metric they should be a fascist state because they have low immigration and avoid clashing cultures.
Donald Tusk firm favourite. They are outstripping the U.K. and are setting a fantastic example to most the west.
Brits will want to migrate there one day.
It would need ridiculous circumstances! SNP aren't standing enough to overtake the tory worse case scenario, and Greens and Reform will be lucky to get 5 seats combined.
It's a long shot they will be in third as it would need a huge effort by Lib Dems.
Last poll put Lib-dems on 14 and Tories on 18, it would only take a 2 point swing from Tories to Lib-dems for them to be neck and neck.
I don't know if it will happen but it is very possible.
Worth saying, the overall percentage of voters doesn't directly relate to number of seats.
Now they could be 3rd or 4th in popularity, but in terms of MPs, they're very likely to be 2nd.
They have a number of constituencies that are reliably going to vote for them. I know that there are some excited reports that put these at risk, but it's still very likely they'll be voted in in those areas.
I know that they had success in the northern red wall constituencies in the past. But they're likely not chasing these as high a priority this time round. So the 20% of the votes are likely over a smaller number of constituencies, leading to a higher seat returns.
Considering Rishi and the Tories keep blundering from one mistake to the next with seemingly no effort to correct anything during this campaign, it wouldn't surprise me if the Lin Dems overtook the Tories.
The implosion of the SNP is the untold story of the coming election. It's a sideshow for us down here but it's pretty significant for our Scottish bretheren.
But all the predictions don't seem to indicate an implosion unless I've missed some. They will lose some seats but still somehow seem likely to be the biggest party in Scotland, or very close to it.
really it's a knife edge in scotland, a 1% swing either way can make huge changes in seats, and the indy/union dynamic encourages tactical voting even more than England. Will be very interesting.
No, there's no way that they come 4th in terms of number of MPs. It is possible that Reform get the second most votes and only a handful of MPs. That's first past the post for you. In 2015, UKIP got 12% of the votes and one MP. The tories will certainly also get more votes than the Lib dems, but it is possible that the lib dems finish fourth in terms of vote numbers but get the second most MPs.
So there is a scenario where the tories finish third in vote numbers, second to Reform and third in MPs, second to Lib dems. But the tories are not going to finish fourth.
Yes but imagine if he had waited until the winter....no flights to Rwanda, inflation back up, record debt, record arrivals via small boats, more sewage in the waters, another nhs crisis, more strikes, post office payout, infected blood payout, WASPI payout, more bankrupt councils - his last chance was that giveaway at the start of the year by Hunt. Did you notice all the extra money? No, me neither...
Trump could have helped a bit...he would have kept Farage out of Clacton for one. Also, with many of the loony wing being Trump fans, an endorsement might have helped. We seem to have this idea of the "special relationship" which isn't even mentioned in the states
It's so delicious. I've been waiting for this moment since Maybot made that ridiculous coalition to cling to the threads of power. What a farce they are and now everyone sees it and it is undeniable. They are not leaders. They are privately educated cum stains that are taught to think themselves as better than all the rest.
Lib Dems as the opposition to Labour is the best possible (realistic) scenario I can actually imagine... Therefore I assume it won't happen due to past experience.
Under normal circumstances I’d agree with you, but I remember thinking anything was possible in June 2020. For once it seemed like the future was completely unknown. However: 5 years ago, absolutely.
I mean that is pretty much how bad it's going...it's gone from being defending champions to a relegation dog fight!
So poor at politics. He's being squeezed by Reform (those who voted from the red wall were voting for Johnson over Corbyn and were never going to stick with tories) but refuses to attack them, instead tripping over himself in attacking a party that will win by a country mile. At least the other parties recognise this and are instead aiming to improve their number of seats
Sunak hasn't got a political bone in his body. He cannot for the life of him see the elephant traps he's walking in to.
Compounding the above is, apparently, his advisors or communication team in No.10 are equally asleep at the wheel, despite them being the best money can buy with the coffers full from a certain racist donor's £15m.
I assume some of these ideas have been coming from the team but as Sunak can't do politics for toffee, he doesn't veto them. You'd never have this number of mis-steps in a campaign for Blair or Cameron, for example.
To be fair, because of FPTP, he's probably right to stick with their line that a vote for Reform is basically a vote for Labour. The choice is still either Sunak or Starmer for prime minister, ultimately.
It's almost like doing this song and dance of garnering right wing votes for immediate gains is an extremely poor long term solution. Conservative governments' strengths are always that they are more unified as they agree on more basic principles, but when you appeal to the far right it's inevitable that purity testing starts as everyone tries to say they're the "REAL" conservatives.
See: the complete unraveling of the US GOP we're watching under Trump.
It will have been the first time in my entire life seeing Tories come third (if it happens). Imagine the chaos. However, I have seen the electorate make some dumb ass decisions *cough Brexit cough* so I will be watching the result with beady eyes.
I’d certainly hope it’s the first time in your life - the Tories have pretty much ALWAYS been either winners or second in General Elections - unless you’re like 200 years old or something when they were the actual Tory party and not Conservatives!
It is a once in a lifetime opportunity to end the “two cheeks of the same arse” revolving politics that the UK has.
Vote to place Tories in fourth or fifth. Or they will bounce back in a few years like a turd in the toilet.
>It is a once in a lifetime opportunity to end the “two cheeks of the same arse” revolving politics that the UK has.
I'm not sure choosing the arsehole instead will help much.
Fourth is the absolute lowest they could conceivably place (behind Labour, Lib Dems, and SNP) and would require a major downturn on their current abysmal polling.
Number two on voting intentions. Not number two on seats. Reform will be over the moon with winning five seats total and would beat basically all expectations if they did so. The Tories will definitely have at least double-digit seats.
I'd rather have two cheeks of the same arse than have reform in opposition.
Having a wife gulf between the two parties is just a recipe for further polarisation.
It will be the first time in history
They are the oldest political party(older than the union itself) in the world and they've always been first or second
This might actually be the beginning of the end for them
It's not the end, they'll just be in the doldrums for a period.
The little conservative social clubs up and down the country aren't suddenly going to shut up shop and they won't turn into Reform clubs either.
They're flail around in opposition, lurching more rightwards and inwards, as is tradition for opposition parties, then they'll need a Cameron 2.0 to march them back towards the centre ground and hugging a hoodie.
The problem is
Before the torys could count on people getting older to vote for them
Now most people under 60 hate them and by hate this is active despise
The lib dems still haven't recovered from the coalition years
Labour is still facing problems from there actions in the 1970s
The torys have fucked themselves
You're not wrong but a couple of points, if I may.
> The lib dems still haven't recovered from the coalition years
This will be the election lib dems shrug off that black mark and get back on track. It's unlikely but there's a chance they could become the official opposition, for example. Although that probably does say more about the state of the tories over lib dems, granted. But if people *still* had a chip on their shoulder about the coalition, we wouldn't even be talking about the chance of them becoming the official opposition at all, would we?
> Labour is still facing problems from there actions in the 1970s
Agreed but that circles back around to elderly voters. Down the pub I drink with a group that includes said elderly and although, thankfully, most are actually anti-tory, the ones that are life long tory voters always tell me "but you don't remember the 70s!" as if that has any relevance to today's Labour party. So whilst it's off putting to that cohort, it's now a rapidly shrinking cohort. The millennial generation weren't even born yet, so they're not going to have the same bad memories of it.
I think the tories are going to really have to reform themselves, ironically. Like you say, they've got a generation of voters that hate them now and are not turning tory as they age. That's an existential threat. If they do not start to appeal to younger voters that have more centre ground beliefs they will truly be doomed in the years to come.
Don't know if I like lib dems but if they have a chance I might vote for them here. Labour and Tories can get fucked. If lib dems have no chance then green.
The problem they've got is 8% of people under 50 will vote for them. That is extinction level support. In 1997 27% of the youngest age group voted Tory for comparison.
Does conversative social clubs continuing to exist actually translate to national-level politics, though? I would have thought that their membership was more in line with the kind of ostensibly business-focused party the Tories were before this lurch to the right they've done in the last few years, so they may just focus on local politics rather than try to prop up the remains of a party they're disillusioned with anyway.
A Government who won with an 80 majority last time is now having to say they are fighting to even be the opposition. In a country with FPTP? Jesus wept. They really are in trouble.
As a messaging strategy, this is disastrous. The public don't back losers in elections, they never have. Most people who vote, take it pretty seriously, even if that is the sum total of their political interaction, so why waste it on a doomed party or one not even trying to win?
We are missing some positive politics in this election and both Labour and the Tories are guilty of being far too mute on when it comes to giving people hope. I desperately hope that Labour seize this opportunity with half the campaign left to now hit the afterburners and come out with some tub thumping, positive messages. Not Johnsonesque bullshit, but at least some "we will do this" rather than "we'll do our best".
This is the moment for Labour to kill the Tories completely and start to take on Reform, who whilst unlikely to get many seats, are a nasty cancer in the heart of our politics right now. They need to be excised.
Predictions now are putting the Tories at around 80 seats. From a majority of 80 to only 80 seats total would be some achievement. However with 3 weeks of the election left and Sunak quickly becoming a figure of fun I'm sure the Tories can dig an even deeper hole for themselves.
In terms of general strategy they seem to be trying to position themselves as the only credible opposition to Labour, and pointedly ignoring Reform. This I think is a critical mistake - they have already lost to Labour but an unchallenged Reform could absolutely eat them alive in traditional Right-Wing areas while the Lib Dems pick off seats in more 'sensible' constituencies. The Tories could be left with absolute scraps if they aren't careful.
Yes. Being squeezed between Reform, Lib Dems and Labour, each nibbling away at a different wing of the party's support base, is the ultimate nightmare for the Tories.
Greens too. Not an insignificant number of their support, membership, and councillors come from rural conservative communities. NIMBY types who are attracted to Green politics because of conservation of nature and rural life.
He put the final nail in the coffin with the D-day debacle.
Halfway through the election, near the end of the election, at the start it wouldn’t matter.
Majority of conservatives are very, very proud British people and absolutely love the war heroes and will not tolerate disrespect towards them, this played straight into reforms hands, as there whole ideology (whether you agree with it or not) is British people first, Britain first and get the foreigners out pretty much, which appeals to many conservative voters.
I'm more than happy for the conservative vote being split between tories and reform, paves the way for a larger majority for labour although I do sincerely wish we had a more left leaning labour rather than david cameron in a kier starmer skinsuit
I think that will come.
The two main parties always have to compete for the middle ground at election time as most people are moderate in their politics. They tend to veer back to their default positions once they get into power.
What's more, Labour know that a largely right-leaning press is analysing everything they put out, and so they have to be careful not to scare the horses.
Besides, this is only their manifesto. They can still do other things on top of it, time permitting.
All this can be traced back to Cameron with his fucked up Austerity and pandering to ukip resulting in the fuckup that is Brexit.
Fuck anyone who voted for unicorns and think the Tories ever cared about anything but themselves and their bank balances.
The irony of Sunak trotting out Cameron over the last few weeks as if he’s gonna save the day has been pretty delicious given he set the whole chain of events in motion. If I didn’t know better I’d think Sunak is making Cameron own his own fuck up.
It's hilarious that the same fuckwads who voted Brexit , think that voting Farage will stop the immigration crisis caused by him.
In an ideal world the Tories and reform self immolate. ....for the greater good.
Yep instead of governing in the interests of the people, Cameron and Osborne went on an ideological enshittification spree, now it's finally sunk in that everything in this country has turned to shit, and Sunak gets the blame. I wonder if Cameron feels bad.
>I'm not actually sure he or any other 'top tories' believe there's much of a chance they'll come 3rd
[Currently 2.9 to 1 on Reform getting more votes than Tories.](https://smarkets.com/event/43879868/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/2024/07/04/21-00/conservative-vs-reform-uk)
Imagine leading a party that has been ruling over the country for large chunks of the past 250+ years and saying you'll fight to stop them coming third. Pathetic
If they are decimated, imagine if they start being in favour of some kind of proportional representation voting scheme instead of FPTP. Could be something positive to come out of this political period.
No one likes voting for a loser as well. The fact he has essentially conceded the election could see moderate Tory voters voting more in line with their Green/Lib Dem/Reform instincts as Tories just seem like a wasted vote now.
I think he can do it.
No one could have believed it a few weeks ago before he called the election in the rain, but I really believe he can drag them down to fourth.
As funny as this headline was to read, I suspect the Tories strategy is now to try and scare their very loyal base into voting for them to prevent a perceived wipeout.
Honestly though, one of the greatest trainwrecks in the history of British politics. I don't particularly dislike Sunak, but my god the guy is an absolutely useless politician.
Somewhat depressing that this is where we have got to.
One....seriously one...poll with a margin of error of +/- 3 points puts Reform 1 point ahead, which is massively the outlier, and we've stopped discussing policy or the future of the country and obsessed over the Tory/Reform horse race.
Meanwhile most polls have Lib Dems getting a few percentage points further back and the Greens a few further back from them, and I'm not seeing their leaders given anything like the air time of Reform, nor their policies getting anything like the attention they should.
Has a sitting prime minister ever so directly admitted defeat (and floated the possibility of not even being the opposition) prior to an election before?
Amazing how attacking everyone under a certain age eventually created a population of people that won’t vote for your party. At least those bribes to pensioners didn’t leave a lasting problem with our finances.
Unless you are really quite wealthy, what do the Tories now offer you? They've hammered the middle classes, Reform are taking the far right vote. Liberals are for the EU rejoiners. They don't occupy the moderate centre ground. I just don't know who except wealthy people vote Tory now. Probably also suburban pensioners, but I imagine Reform also looks attractive to them now.
I am shocked that anyone is still voting Conservative. I hope Reform and Lib Dems overtake them. They deserve to be wiped out and made extinct as lesson for what they did to their voters betraying their trust. The arrogance of them playing musical chairs with the role of PM and Chancellor and Gov Ministers. It is indefensible. Which is why poor Penny been wheeled out just shouting about tax rises from Labour. Gurl the game is up. We don't care even if Labour get 600 seats and Ed Davey LOTO. You and your party are done. I voting Reform this election because if otherwise you would never have had my vote.
If anyone predicted that in 2024 the Tories would, by their own admission, be “fighting not to come third” in a general election, I would’ve laughed them out of the room.
First he needs to stop lying…
Second. Accept he’s out touch and really shouldnt pretend otherwise
Lastly…. Ahh fuck it. They are all bell ends! Tory scum out!!
What are the bookies saying about the SNP staying in as 3rd biggest party?
Seems a long stretch, but if reform and tories split the vote so much, could Labour get so many seats SNP are main opposition?
This would have been an inconceivable thought at any previous election over the last 100 years, just shows how badly the Tories have down in their 3 terms in power.
>reform 19%
>conservatives 18%
Slight tangent, but are there any forecasts estimating how many seats Reform might actually win?
I remember in 2015 UKIP got nearly 4 million votes yet no seats in parliament (contrast that with the SNP that got 56 seats from 1.8 million votes).
At least, he's sorta realistic. Second is out of reach because the tories are cunts and his leaving early during a D-Day cermony to do a political interview backfired big time.
Hell, Lord Buckethead is likely to do far better then the tories.
I don't think the Tories being squeezed out really benefits labour as much as you might think. If the Tories get pushed into third and the lib-dems become the opposition then it could well be the end of first past the post and 2 party politics. The FPTP system only works if there are two obvious parties to choose between. If the next election does not gave an obvious second party then PR seems inevitable.
Personally I am hoping for this result and for politics to shift leftward as a result of the lib dems being the opposition and Labour being the main parties (an odd result of the Farrage intervention). But if I were the Labour party right now I might start thinking about how much of a battering I really want the Tories to take ...
Has anyone else noticed that it seems to be Labour vs Reform vs Rishi Sunak?
Where is Jacob Reese-Mogg? Where is Jeremy Hunt? Where is Michael Gove (I know he's quitting but you'd expect him to give some support on his way out). Kimi Badenoch?
So many otherwise vocal MPs are all trying to distance themselves from their own party, leaving the brown kid to clean up the mess, like they did at Eton.
They're one of the two largest parties in the UK - I would honestly have thought getting 1st or 2nd would happen automatically for them. But now they think 3rd is a prospect, and they hope "not to have fucked it up too badly"...
Even Sunak is admitting he knows he's shit. When even that happens, why would anyone vote for them?
See if they can go even lower than 3rd.
Lol... at this point, coming in SECOND would be an achievement for the guy. And good on the Times to call them the tories. Tories should not be confused with conservatives. Conservatives want to CONSERVE, while the Tories have no such desire
Also, given your treatment of disabled people and rising foodbank use, your party should be outlawed as an extremist group with the lot of you jailed for life
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I mean, it's still possible they come 4th, if they have a few point swing to the Lib-Dems and Reform gains a few points from them its absolutely possible and if anyone can achieve it Sunak can.
>if anyone can achieve it Sunak can. :D
This is the “reaping” part
The plan is working!
"In a bizzare turn of events, the Prime Minister was caught throwing a Sky dish through the window of the D-Day museum in Portsmouth"
"It's ok, I was throwing it at what I thought was a messerschmitt. Fortunately, it was just a crow with a shiny thing in its beak"
Ed Davey becomes Leader of the Opposition. Lib Dems still offered less seats on Question Time than Farage.
But Farage is a man of the people, init.
This is how people talk. No Nigel, this is how racists talk.
Racists who hang out with other racists think that that's how all people talk.
Lowering immigraiton isn’t racist. The country has voted for it since like 2010.
No that's fair. But being racist is racist.
Just they didn’t get what they voted for 😂
Saying we shouldn't have opposed the Nazis is racist though. You can find plenty more examples of Farage and his friends being openly racist as well.
"My mummy says you hate foreigners"
Reform is polling higher than Lib Dem’s…
Doesn't mean shit. Because of how FPTP works reform will still only get 1-2 seats max while lib dems are aiming for 60+ seats.
In 2015, UKIP got 12.6% of the vote share but only 1 seat. Lib Dems only got 7.9% but won 8 seats. I imagine we will see similar with Reform this year.
Just proves what’s wrong with our electoral system
Farage ahead of Lib Dem’s. Objectively his immigration proposals are in line with public votes and sentiment and the LD’s aren’t:
But Lib Dems will likely win more seats due to the distribution. But tbh it's so volatile anything could happen.
FPTP has to go.
We had a referendum on PR and the British public were too stupid to go for it. I tried explaining the Maths behind it in the office at work and people didn't get it.
I voted to get rid of it in 2011, but if it keeps one extreme right-wing twazzock out of Westminster I’m happy to have lost.
What are those proposals?
Massively lower immigration over years and end the feedback loop of trying to important Newcastle every year (annual net) just try squeeze 0.1 percent GDP on the newspaper headlines. It’s not viable or a sound strategy. Look at Poland. A darling of the EU, yet by you lots metric they should be a fascist state because they have low immigration and avoid clashing cultures.
I asked what their proposals were, not what their goals are. Proposals are how you reach those goals.
> Look at Poland. A darling of the EU, They are not a darling of the EU or even close to that.
Donald Tusk firm favourite. They are outstripping the U.K. and are setting a fantastic example to most the west. Brits will want to migrate there one day.
*Fewer seats.
It would need ridiculous circumstances! SNP aren't standing enough to overtake the tory worse case scenario, and Greens and Reform will be lucky to get 5 seats combined. It's a long shot they will be in third as it would need a huge effort by Lib Dems.
Last poll put Lib-dems on 14 and Tories on 18, it would only take a 2 point swing from Tories to Lib-dems for them to be neck and neck. I don't know if it will happen but it is very possible.
Worth saying, the overall percentage of voters doesn't directly relate to number of seats. Now they could be 3rd or 4th in popularity, but in terms of MPs, they're very likely to be 2nd. They have a number of constituencies that are reliably going to vote for them. I know that there are some excited reports that put these at risk, but it's still very likely they'll be voted in in those areas. I know that they had success in the northern red wall constituencies in the past. But they're likely not chasing these as high a priority this time round. So the 20% of the votes are likely over a smaller number of constituencies, leading to a higher seat returns.
Yeah, fair point, I was only talking in terms of popular vote, not seats.
That is true right now, but if reform keep taking their votes it will flip very quickly to them in third in every seat and LibDems as the opposition
Some people may agree with everything that Reform says but are nonetheless too posh to vote anything but Conservative.
Considering Rishi and the Tories keep blundering from one mistake to the next with seemingly no effort to correct anything during this campaign, it wouldn't surprise me if the Lin Dems overtook the Tories.
The implosion of the SNP is the untold story of the coming election. It's a sideshow for us down here but it's pretty significant for our Scottish bretheren.
But all the predictions don't seem to indicate an implosion unless I've missed some. They will lose some seats but still somehow seem likely to be the biggest party in Scotland, or very close to it.
really it's a knife edge in scotland, a 1% swing either way can make huge changes in seats, and the indy/union dynamic encourages tactical voting even more than England. Will be very interesting.
the recent raft of SNP scandals is just.... exactly what SNP voters were hating on the tories for - when not hating on them for actual policy.
Sunak sunak! He's our man. If he can't do it, no one can!
Another pledge he may fail to complete then
No, there's no way that they come 4th in terms of number of MPs. It is possible that Reform get the second most votes and only a handful of MPs. That's first past the post for you. In 2015, UKIP got 12% of the votes and one MP. The tories will certainly also get more votes than the Lib dems, but it is possible that the lib dems finish fourth in terms of vote numbers but get the second most MPs. So there is a scenario where the tories finish third in vote numbers, second to Reform and third in MPs, second to Lib dems. But the tories are not going to finish fourth.
With the SNPs help, they could become 5th
I’d argue it’s even likely. The SNP may well end up with more power in westminster than the tories.
How can they collapse so much in a single Parliament?
They achieved the literal opposite of what their voters voted them in for.
Bloody hell. The man's went from trying to mitigate not losing too badly to Labour, to not losing too badly to the Lib Dems. He called this election.
Yes but imagine if he had waited until the winter....no flights to Rwanda, inflation back up, record debt, record arrivals via small boats, more sewage in the waters, another nhs crisis, more strikes, post office payout, infected blood payout, WASPI payout, more bankrupt councils - his last chance was that giveaway at the start of the year by Hunt. Did you notice all the extra money? No, me neither...
Not to mention he'd have left it too late to enrol his kids in school in LA.
Ahhhh, that's the reason
I'd add on to that: no euros win to look forward to and a Donald Trump presidency dominating headlines.
Trump could have helped a bit...he would have kept Farage out of Clacton for one. Also, with many of the loony wing being Trump fans, an endorsement might have helped. We seem to have this idea of the "special relationship" which isn't even mentioned in the states
The future's so bright...
In fairness it started going rotten around 2014...this is just the most rancid bit at the end.
There is a theory if he didn't call it, he would have been booted.
At this point just another Tuesday.
It's so delicious. I've been waiting for this moment since Maybot made that ridiculous coalition to cling to the threads of power. What a farce they are and now everyone sees it and it is undeniable. They are not leaders. They are privately educated cum stains that are taught to think themselves as better than all the rest.
Lib Dems as the opposition to Labour is the best possible (realistic) scenario I can actually imagine... Therefore I assume it won't happen due to past experience.
Think of the poor man not having Sky TV growing up ffs!
Just imagine showing this headline to someone four years ago - they’d never believe it.
Under normal circumstances I’d agree with you, but I remember thinking anything was possible in June 2020. For once it seemed like the future was completely unknown. However: 5 years ago, absolutely.
I mean that is pretty much how bad it's going...it's gone from being defending champions to a relegation dog fight! So poor at politics. He's being squeezed by Reform (those who voted from the red wall were voting for Johnson over Corbyn and were never going to stick with tories) but refuses to attack them, instead tripping over himself in attacking a party that will win by a country mile. At least the other parties recognise this and are instead aiming to improve their number of seats
Sunak hasn't got a political bone in his body. He cannot for the life of him see the elephant traps he's walking in to. Compounding the above is, apparently, his advisors or communication team in No.10 are equally asleep at the wheel, despite them being the best money can buy with the coffers full from a certain racist donor's £15m. I assume some of these ideas have been coming from the team but as Sunak can't do politics for toffee, he doesn't veto them. You'd never have this number of mis-steps in a campaign for Blair or Cameron, for example. To be fair, because of FPTP, he's probably right to stick with their line that a vote for Reform is basically a vote for Labour. The choice is still either Sunak or Starmer for prime minister, ultimately.
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It's almost like doing this song and dance of garnering right wing votes for immediate gains is an extremely poor long term solution. Conservative governments' strengths are always that they are more unified as they agree on more basic principles, but when you appeal to the far right it's inevitable that purity testing starts as everyone tries to say they're the "REAL" conservatives. See: the complete unraveling of the US GOP we're watching under Trump.
It will have been the first time in my entire life seeing Tories come third (if it happens). Imagine the chaos. However, I have seen the electorate make some dumb ass decisions *cough Brexit cough* so I will be watching the result with beady eyes.
I’d certainly hope it’s the first time in your life - the Tories have pretty much ALWAYS been either winners or second in General Elections - unless you’re like 200 years old or something when they were the actual Tory party and not Conservatives!
He’s given away his vampire past
Not been the same since the Ultra-torries disbanded.
It is a once in a lifetime opportunity to end the “two cheeks of the same arse” revolving politics that the UK has. Vote to place Tories in fourth or fifth. Or they will bounce back in a few years like a turd in the toilet.
>It is a once in a lifetime opportunity to end the “two cheeks of the same arse” revolving politics that the UK has. I'm not sure choosing the arsehole instead will help much.
Fourth is the absolute lowest they could conceivably place (behind Labour, Lib Dems, and SNP) and would require a major downturn on their current abysmal polling.
Any party is more deserving than the party that literally betrayed the country. from recent poling Reform are number 2 behind Labour.
Number two on voting intentions. Not number two on seats. Reform will be over the moon with winning five seats total and would beat basically all expectations if they did so. The Tories will definitely have at least double-digit seats.
I doubt many are voting for the snp.
I'd rather have two cheeks of the same arse than have reform in opposition. Having a wife gulf between the two parties is just a recipe for further polarisation.
It will be the first time in history They are the oldest political party(older than the union itself) in the world and they've always been first or second This might actually be the beginning of the end for them
It's not the end, they'll just be in the doldrums for a period. The little conservative social clubs up and down the country aren't suddenly going to shut up shop and they won't turn into Reform clubs either. They're flail around in opposition, lurching more rightwards and inwards, as is tradition for opposition parties, then they'll need a Cameron 2.0 to march them back towards the centre ground and hugging a hoodie.
The problem is Before the torys could count on people getting older to vote for them Now most people under 60 hate them and by hate this is active despise The lib dems still haven't recovered from the coalition years Labour is still facing problems from there actions in the 1970s The torys have fucked themselves
You're not wrong but a couple of points, if I may. > The lib dems still haven't recovered from the coalition years This will be the election lib dems shrug off that black mark and get back on track. It's unlikely but there's a chance they could become the official opposition, for example. Although that probably does say more about the state of the tories over lib dems, granted. But if people *still* had a chip on their shoulder about the coalition, we wouldn't even be talking about the chance of them becoming the official opposition at all, would we? > Labour is still facing problems from there actions in the 1970s Agreed but that circles back around to elderly voters. Down the pub I drink with a group that includes said elderly and although, thankfully, most are actually anti-tory, the ones that are life long tory voters always tell me "but you don't remember the 70s!" as if that has any relevance to today's Labour party. So whilst it's off putting to that cohort, it's now a rapidly shrinking cohort. The millennial generation weren't even born yet, so they're not going to have the same bad memories of it. I think the tories are going to really have to reform themselves, ironically. Like you say, they've got a generation of voters that hate them now and are not turning tory as they age. That's an existential threat. If they do not start to appeal to younger voters that have more centre ground beliefs they will truly be doomed in the years to come.
Don't know if I like lib dems but if they have a chance I might vote for them here. Labour and Tories can get fucked. If lib dems have no chance then green.
The problem they've got is 8% of people under 50 will vote for them. That is extinction level support. In 1997 27% of the youngest age group voted Tory for comparison.
Does conversative social clubs continuing to exist actually translate to national-level politics, though? I would have thought that their membership was more in line with the kind of ostensibly business-focused party the Tories were before this lurch to the right they've done in the last few years, so they may just focus on local politics rather than try to prop up the remains of a party they're disillusioned with anyway.
The dumbest decision of all is not voting.
Surely first time ever? Maybe im not too well up on my political history, but theyve always been the gov or shadow gov, no?
A Government who won with an 80 majority last time is now having to say they are fighting to even be the opposition. In a country with FPTP? Jesus wept. They really are in trouble. As a messaging strategy, this is disastrous. The public don't back losers in elections, they never have. Most people who vote, take it pretty seriously, even if that is the sum total of their political interaction, so why waste it on a doomed party or one not even trying to win? We are missing some positive politics in this election and both Labour and the Tories are guilty of being far too mute on when it comes to giving people hope. I desperately hope that Labour seize this opportunity with half the campaign left to now hit the afterburners and come out with some tub thumping, positive messages. Not Johnsonesque bullshit, but at least some "we will do this" rather than "we'll do our best". This is the moment for Labour to kill the Tories completely and start to take on Reform, who whilst unlikely to get many seats, are a nasty cancer in the heart of our politics right now. They need to be excised.
Predictions now are putting the Tories at around 80 seats. From a majority of 80 to only 80 seats total would be some achievement. However with 3 weeks of the election left and Sunak quickly becoming a figure of fun I'm sure the Tories can dig an even deeper hole for themselves. In terms of general strategy they seem to be trying to position themselves as the only credible opposition to Labour, and pointedly ignoring Reform. This I think is a critical mistake - they have already lost to Labour but an unchallenged Reform could absolutely eat them alive in traditional Right-Wing areas while the Lib Dems pick off seats in more 'sensible' constituencies. The Tories could be left with absolute scraps if they aren't careful.
Yes. Being squeezed between Reform, Lib Dems and Labour, each nibbling away at a different wing of the party's support base, is the ultimate nightmare for the Tories.
Greens too. Not an insignificant number of their support, membership, and councillors come from rural conservative communities. NIMBY types who are attracted to Green politics because of conservation of nature and rural life.
He put the final nail in the coffin with the D-day debacle. Halfway through the election, near the end of the election, at the start it wouldn’t matter. Majority of conservatives are very, very proud British people and absolutely love the war heroes and will not tolerate disrespect towards them, this played straight into reforms hands, as there whole ideology (whether you agree with it or not) is British people first, Britain first and get the foreigners out pretty much, which appeals to many conservative voters.
Not just d day There was the sky tv shit as well which put him way out of touch
I'm more than happy for the conservative vote being split between tories and reform, paves the way for a larger majority for labour although I do sincerely wish we had a more left leaning labour rather than david cameron in a kier starmer skinsuit
I think that will come. The two main parties always have to compete for the middle ground at election time as most people are moderate in their politics. They tend to veer back to their default positions once they get into power. What's more, Labour know that a largely right-leaning press is analysing everything they put out, and so they have to be careful not to scare the horses. Besides, this is only their manifesto. They can still do other things on top of it, time permitting.
All this can be traced back to Cameron with his fucked up Austerity and pandering to ukip resulting in the fuckup that is Brexit. Fuck anyone who voted for unicorns and think the Tories ever cared about anything but themselves and their bank balances.
The irony of Sunak trotting out Cameron over the last few weeks as if he’s gonna save the day has been pretty delicious given he set the whole chain of events in motion. If I didn’t know better I’d think Sunak is making Cameron own his own fuck up.
It's hilarious that the same fuckwads who voted Brexit , think that voting Farage will stop the immigration crisis caused by him. In an ideal world the Tories and reform self immolate. ....for the greater good.
Yep instead of governing in the interests of the people, Cameron and Osborne went on an ideological enshittification spree, now it's finally sunk in that everything in this country has turned to shit, and Sunak gets the blame. I wonder if Cameron feels bad.
..... probably doesn't give a flying pig fuck.
Now we know the only reason he called the election right now…
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It will be the Lib Dems that could put tories 3rd, not reform, depending on how well they do and how bad tories do.
>I'm not actually sure he or any other 'top tories' believe there's much of a chance they'll come 3rd [Currently 2.9 to 1 on Reform getting more votes than Tories.](https://smarkets.com/event/43879868/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/2024/07/04/21-00/conservative-vs-reform-uk)
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Imagine leading a party that has been ruling over the country for large chunks of the past 250+ years and saying you'll fight to stop them coming third. Pathetic
3rd would be a start, it would be nice to see the chances of them coming 4th, 5th or 6th.
I’m so glad I’m alive to hear a Tory prime minister say this. It feels like a dream, lol.
Defeatist attitude? "We can't win, we'll try for second."
If they are decimated, imagine if they start being in favour of some kind of proportional representation voting scheme instead of FPTP. Could be something positive to come out of this political period.
Even if you think you might come third you don't say it, not unless you want to lose more votes.
He thinks he might come fifth. He’s aiming for third.
No one likes voting for a loser as well. The fact he has essentially conceded the election could see moderate Tory voters voting more in line with their Green/Lib Dem/Reform instincts as Tories just seem like a wasted vote now.
This general election is going to be fucking brilliant. I hope the useless tossbag comes 5th
It’s a psychological trick to suppress the Labour vote.
I think he can do it. No one could have believed it a few weeks ago before he called the election in the rain, but I really believe he can drag them down to fourth.
As funny as this headline was to read, I suspect the Tories strategy is now to try and scare their very loyal base into voting for them to prevent a perceived wipeout. Honestly though, one of the greatest trainwrecks in the history of British politics. I don't particularly dislike Sunak, but my god the guy is an absolutely useless politician.
Somewhat depressing that this is where we have got to. One....seriously one...poll with a margin of error of +/- 3 points puts Reform 1 point ahead, which is massively the outlier, and we've stopped discussing policy or the future of the country and obsessed over the Tory/Reform horse race. Meanwhile most polls have Lib Dems getting a few percentage points further back and the Greens a few further back from them, and I'm not seeing their leaders given anything like the air time of Reform, nor their policies getting anything like the attention they should.
Has a sitting prime minister ever so directly admitted defeat (and floated the possibility of not even being the opposition) prior to an election before?
Amazing how attacking everyone under a certain age eventually created a population of people that won’t vote for your party. At least those bribes to pensioners didn’t leave a lasting problem with our finances.
Unless you are really quite wealthy, what do the Tories now offer you? They've hammered the middle classes, Reform are taking the far right vote. Liberals are for the EU rejoiners. They don't occupy the moderate centre ground. I just don't know who except wealthy people vote Tory now. Probably also suburban pensioners, but I imagine Reform also looks attractive to them now.
Rishi sharing the Russian Armed Forces approach to defining your "success" condition.
The best way he can achieve that is by coming fourth.
I am shocked that anyone is still voting Conservative. I hope Reform and Lib Dems overtake them. They deserve to be wiped out and made extinct as lesson for what they did to their voters betraying their trust. The arrogance of them playing musical chairs with the role of PM and Chancellor and Gov Ministers. It is indefensible. Which is why poor Penny been wheeled out just shouting about tax rises from Labour. Gurl the game is up. We don't care even if Labour get 600 seats and Ed Davey LOTO. You and your party are done. I voting Reform this election because if otherwise you would never have had my vote.
If anyone predicted that in 2024 the Tories would, by their own admission, be “fighting not to come third” in a general election, I would’ve laughed them out of the room.
Tories are the Spurs of the political world, they're going to finish third in a two-horse race.
It's still not too late for him to resign in order to give the tories a fighting chance.
It is too late. He's weak because he's getting creamed, he's not getting creamed because he's weak.
God himself could become the party leader and they would not have a fighting chance.
First he needs to stop lying… Second. Accept he’s out touch and really shouldnt pretend otherwise Lastly…. Ahh fuck it. They are all bell ends! Tory scum out!!
I’m trying to imagine what the Commons will look like. The government side will have to overflow to the Opposition benches.
Too late. Tories will behind the LibDems. Haha Tories will fight the Greens… with fantastic green policies. That will be funny.
When was the last time the top 2 parties were not Labour and the Tories?
You are supposed to fight to come first, not second
Man is really doing a Tottenham and coming 3rd in a 2 horse race lol
What are the bookies saying about the SNP staying in as 3rd biggest party? Seems a long stretch, but if reform and tories split the vote so much, could Labour get so many seats SNP are main opposition?
Will he though? Or will he just say ‘fuck it, let’s come last’ ? It’s a wipeout either way
I'd wish you good luck with that......but I wouldn't mean it.
We're halfway through the campaign. At this rate he'll be announcing his strategy to retain at least 1 seat by polling day
Note: even with a historic 40% swing to Labour, the Conservatives will still win at least 100 seats. Reform will be very very lucky to get 3.
This would have been an inconceivable thought at any previous election over the last 100 years, just shows how badly the Tories have down in their 3 terms in power.
At this point he couldn’t fight his way out of a plastic bag all he has been doing is putting layers of bag over himself lol good luck
The Tories are obliterated. They won't be back for decades. Whatever comes next I'm going to inject this into my veins. Squirm Sunak, squirm!
>reform 19% >conservatives 18% Slight tangent, but are there any forecasts estimating how many seats Reform might actually win? I remember in 2015 UKIP got nearly 4 million votes yet no seats in parliament (contrast that with the SNP that got 56 seats from 1.8 million votes).
You won't be the government You won't even be the opposition This is great for the UK.
Fight who? Himself or his imaginary friend jsicheb?
Dude thinks he can run a country when he couldn't even run a washing machine.
A lot of this messaging is to sow complacency in Labour voters by making it sound like a foregone conclusion
Bet the Tories are begging for all this to be over so they can just change leader and start fresh
At least, he's sorta realistic. Second is out of reach because the tories are cunts and his leaving early during a D-Day cermony to do a political interview backfired big time. Hell, Lord Buckethead is likely to do far better then the tories.
This is the sort of rousing, passionate rhetoric that got Sunak in as PM.
5th July "I said we wouldn't come third. Congratulations to Labour, Lib Dems and Reform for coming higher. Now I have a flight to catch. Toodles."
Isn’t the goal to form a coalition with reform now?
He should just give up, no one wants them - scratch that, no one with a brain and a heart should want them.
I don't think the Tories being squeezed out really benefits labour as much as you might think. If the Tories get pushed into third and the lib-dems become the opposition then it could well be the end of first past the post and 2 party politics. The FPTP system only works if there are two obvious parties to choose between. If the next election does not gave an obvious second party then PR seems inevitable. Personally I am hoping for this result and for politics to shift leftward as a result of the lib dems being the opposition and Labour being the main parties (an odd result of the Farrage intervention). But if I were the Labour party right now I might start thinking about how much of a battering I really want the Tories to take ...
Has anyone else noticed that it seems to be Labour vs Reform vs Rishi Sunak? Where is Jacob Reese-Mogg? Where is Jeremy Hunt? Where is Michael Gove (I know he's quitting but you'd expect him to give some support on his way out). Kimi Badenoch? So many otherwise vocal MPs are all trying to distance themselves from their own party, leaving the brown kid to clean up the mess, like they did at Eton.
Has he got Sky yet? It’ll help him keep up to date.
The Tories in 3rd , I think we might be close to finally finding a Brexit benefit
IMO the Tories are such a poisoned name it may not matter, an SNP + Plaid + Lib dems might have more seats than them
Do, is he admitting that 1st Place is out of the question ?
They're one of the two largest parties in the UK - I would honestly have thought getting 1st or 2nd would happen automatically for them. But now they think 3rd is a prospect, and they hope "not to have fucked it up too badly"... Even Sunak is admitting he knows he's shit. When even that happens, why would anyone vote for them? See if they can go even lower than 3rd.
Yeah….the tories are definitely done for. Rightfully so
Lol... at this point, coming in SECOND would be an achievement for the guy. And good on the Times to call them the tories. Tories should not be confused with conservatives. Conservatives want to CONSERVE, while the Tories have no such desire Also, given your treatment of disabled people and rising foodbank use, your party should be outlawed as an extremist group with the lot of you jailed for life
It’s not the Olympic Games of who can tell the most believable lies.