If I’m placing a bet on the premarket trend I set up a debit spread before close the day before.
If I’m unsure of premarket volatility, I won’t enter until 10:30am EST to give time to the opening auction and 10am market data to settle and remove the volatility.
The market tends to have a pattern:
9:30-10:30 - High Volatility on the open - opening auctions, data, funds rebalancing all positions so it’ll bounce around a bit. Only get in if you can stomach the risk. By this point a lot of the high speed traders are basically done with their day having blown through their margin or hitting their profit targets.
10:30-12:00 - Confirmation or Retrace - 10am data comes in, if an overbought/oversold condition comes in, there’s usually a switch in direction as long as volume remains low. Key here is watching volume.
12:00-2:00 - Steady support - Bond auctions finish up at 1ish. Usually lower volume and supports the general market sentiment for the day.
2:00-3:00 - Retrace - Usually a short reversal to trim RSI or a pause for consolidation. Volume tends to be low.
3:00-3:30 - False finish - Volatlity, high speed, day traders all start to step back in looking for deals.
3:30-4:15 - Chaos to the finish line - Brokerage auto close options, and bets during earnings season kick in for the finish. I say 4:15 as there are late close options like SPY and QQQ that provide material support and volatility until that time.
On data days, the direction is pretty much set if the data comes in as expected. The issue is when data comes in too hot or too cool. Then all hell breaks loose.
This is why I like this sub.
Too bad the mods here encourage the cult-like, degen degenerate due diligence than solid fundamental analysis - with a hint of regard behavior.
Sir, this is Reddit. No one is making any money. Blame the CEO. u/spez is a shrill.
Edit: I completely read this comment completely wrong and out of context. Will keep up anyways because lolz 😂
Sorry
You’re not wrong though cause at each macro i was thinking of 1 day where the opposite happened lol. But at the same point the gates seem to be pretty static on if there’s swing those would be the time posts to look at.
This is great! Quite helpful for me as I’ve had some enduring confusion. I actually like to trade SPY contracts right at the end (4-4:15,) lately and now understand a bit better why! Thank you. (Screenshot it!)
Directional moves between 10:30-12:00 are generally done on lower volumes so if you’re trying to read the tea leaves it makes it hard to know if that’s what the market is actually thinking.
If volume remains elevated compared to normal daily volume averages it could signal more conviction and you should act to not get caught with your pants down.
On days where the market just goes straight parabolic or in a single direction (I call it a death march) the low volume signals tend to disappear leaving those trying to find the retraces dropping like flies and having to cover throughout the day.
Thank you kindly for the explanations.
That means I look at the direction taken at 09:30-10:30 while also keeping an eye on volume. If volume remains high or is elevated, this would more or less confirm the direction taken in the first hour. If I see a drop in volume then the direction will most likely change to the opposite of the first hour.
Is that it? Or did I misunderstand something?
For the most part that’s right. Volume will drop but you need to compare it to the daily norms. Like if the average drop in volume is down from 300K to 100K, a drop to 200K isn’t as significant as say a starting volume of 1.1M down to 500K. You want to look at where it’s going proportionally to the churn - excluding indexes (i.e. SPY, QQQ, DIA).
I usually look at the 200 Day since it smooths out any exceptions pretty well. If you’re closely following a stock though, you’ll know when you see the volume spike since it’ll be pretty obvious.
dont trade it, unless you stayed up all night tracking chinese pork belly futures, because you are data deficient and at a significant disadvantage.
come to wsb first, see whar everyone is doing, and do the opposite.
First move is usually fake with a lot of volatility. Usually by 45 mins to an hour after open the market will adjust to new information and trend that way for a few hours.
You can't. Don't bother. First hour day trading is extremely volatile and will usually lead to losses instead. The wallstreet people know your moves and will simply inverse it to trap you to close your position.
So if you buy, they'll say "haha fuck you" and then make the price continue fall. If you sell, they'll say "haha fuck you" again and then make the price rise like mad.
This is why everyone here likes to say they can 'move markets inversely' by simply taking a position. It's not a joke. It's real. Retail investors are being screwed over daily
Ez. Never trust your first judgement. And never let them know your next move. Go long while shorting the long in your shorts then go long after the short with longshorts
If I’m
Gambling, I look at the bollinger bands and if it breaks the upper or lower, I play mean reversion, quick 5-10% profit and get out….specifically on SPY.
It’s easier if you just pick a side. I’m a perma bull. I look for upside setups. If I don’t see anything good I don’t take any trades. If I try something and it doesn’t work I take the L and wait for something else. Stocks don’t only go up but they do go up most of the time. I’ll take puts when we’re actually in a downtrend, which is rare.
Feeling like you have to trade every day while not knowing what side you should be on leads to all kinda bad shit. Mainly just getting chopped up like oh it’s up wait shit calls didn’t work it’s going down I’ll try puts oh shit it bounced ok back to calls maybe calls on this and some puts on that oh shit that thing I sold 30 minutes ago is up 3x shit I shoulda just stuck with that now I’ll chase back in oh no it reversed again then it’s 4 hours later you’ve made 12 trades and (maybe) made like $34. Then a real opportunity presents itself and you’re either out of money or too mentally worn down to see it.
What Porsche guy said. But back when I was slowly winning my account back to even I wouldn’t trade during that time at all it’s a complete crapshoot. Of course as soon as I went even though I had to gamble again and now I might have to play it safe once more
The first 30 minutes. can be a good way to average down on positions if your thesis is still playing out. Typically it can be a fake out.
I use the daily chart to establish thesis of price movement over days or a week.
Then use the GEX profiles and the daily chart to find entry or exit points.
Typically only trade QQQ or Mag 7.
It's a crapshoot. It can be up in premarket then up during the day, down in premarket then new record close, up in premarket then bottom falls out after earnings during the day. It's not worth your energy.
Dont trade during the first hour of market open. Trust me. Lost alot of money that way. The first hour is always fake and meant to fuck retail investors in the ass real hard. It doesnt matter whether you buy or sell, or can even predict the future. The wallstreet bankers will just automatically inverse you to fuck you hard in the ass hole. I believed I've single-handedly caused stocks to reach their ATH or ATH lows in a day just buying the fucked position
I trade the first 30min the way I trade any other time in the day, only hopping in if one of the 2 setups I use daily are present.
I only trade false breakdowns/breakouts or actual breakouts/breakdowns off the backtests.
You might like j bravo on YouTube, he talks about swing trading a lot. Might be bullcrap but it at least looks like he’s using various technical indicators and reading tea leaves, also his disclaimer is that it’s all paper trading but he somewhat hides that information sometimes cause he’s just hustling courses but I have learned a couple interesting strategies for losing money
I've had ok luck selling the rip or buying the dip from premarket lol or it'll make a quick pullback (bear/bull trap) and resume the trend from the prior day. Know your key support/resistances. But uhhh yeah I'm scared to hold shit overnight lol
Consider what the market is anticipating and pay attention to the data released and data that will be released. And pay attention to the bigger timeframes.
Tried it with nvda. Options data show optimism. Yet it keeps dumping.
Thought MU would rise with good earnings. Yet it didn’t.
Thought pce data in line with expectations would have been bullish. Nope.
PCE data was already priced in and climaxed with the released. I felt confident enough that the market was going to drop last Friday or have a weak move after the news. MU has been parabolic. Look at the weekly and monthly charts, it needed to cold down. Also current earnings is not the only thing that matter, it is the guidances too. NVDA was also overextended. I caught the recent bottom when I saw it kept dropping post-market. That made it oversold and I profited 10% in a single day from that (you also had the NVDA annual meeting after that). It takes a lot of thinking to understand and many times what we think we understand turn out to be wrong because we are missing pieces from the puzzle or misinterpreting things which can happen often. One thing I have really learned is to be patient and wait. One reason why I kept losing money is because I was rushing to be part of a trade thinking I will miss out. I would suggest to go to higher timeframes where things are more clear and less noises.
If you’re day trading, just skip the open until you look at a lot of charts. For longer term, intraday volatility shouldn’t be enough to hit your stop unless it’s from big news
EZ
If green buy calls for over-inflated value at 9:31 and loses 65% when it drops and IV lowers
If red buy calls for under-inflated value at 9:31 watch the stock drop until a 65% loss.
Repeat until one day the FD's bought at opening print so hard I make up for 2 years of loses!
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If I’m placing a bet on the premarket trend I set up a debit spread before close the day before. If I’m unsure of premarket volatility, I won’t enter until 10:30am EST to give time to the opening auction and 10am market data to settle and remove the volatility. The market tends to have a pattern: 9:30-10:30 - High Volatility on the open - opening auctions, data, funds rebalancing all positions so it’ll bounce around a bit. Only get in if you can stomach the risk. By this point a lot of the high speed traders are basically done with their day having blown through their margin or hitting their profit targets. 10:30-12:00 - Confirmation or Retrace - 10am data comes in, if an overbought/oversold condition comes in, there’s usually a switch in direction as long as volume remains low. Key here is watching volume. 12:00-2:00 - Steady support - Bond auctions finish up at 1ish. Usually lower volume and supports the general market sentiment for the day. 2:00-3:00 - Retrace - Usually a short reversal to trim RSI or a pause for consolidation. Volume tends to be low. 3:00-3:30 - False finish - Volatlity, high speed, day traders all start to step back in looking for deals. 3:30-4:15 - Chaos to the finish line - Brokerage auto close options, and bets during earnings season kick in for the finish. I say 4:15 as there are late close options like SPY and QQQ that provide material support and volatility until that time. On data days, the direction is pretty much set if the data comes in as expected. The issue is when data comes in too hot or too cool. Then all hell breaks loose.
Woefully undervoted comment rn. Nice rundown. Salivating.
This is why I like this sub. Too bad the mods here encourage the cult-like, degen degenerate due diligence than solid fundamental analysis - with a hint of regard behavior.
You can’t make insane money without some insane thoughts!
Sir, this is Reddit. No one is making any money. Blame the CEO. u/spez is a shrill. Edit: I completely read this comment completely wrong and out of context. Will keep up anyways because lolz 😂 Sorry
This made me laugh so hard when I first read it
TLDR: sometimes up, sometimes down. Monkey brain says buy. Stoopid monkey brain giving away my money!
Basically. As I was writing this I was thinking about it this way too lol
Actually a good write up on the macros of the daily market. I'm just having a bit of fun.
You’re not wrong though cause at each macro i was thinking of 1 day where the opposite happened lol. But at the same point the gates seem to be pretty static on if there’s swing those would be the time posts to look at.
This is great! Quite helpful for me as I’ve had some enduring confusion. I actually like to trade SPY contracts right at the end (4-4:15,) lately and now understand a bit better why! Thank you. (Screenshot it!)
Thanks for the detailed rundown, spectacular! Could you maybe elaborate the volume point for 10:30 - 12:00. What am I watching out for specifically?
Directional moves between 10:30-12:00 are generally done on lower volumes so if you’re trying to read the tea leaves it makes it hard to know if that’s what the market is actually thinking. If volume remains elevated compared to normal daily volume averages it could signal more conviction and you should act to not get caught with your pants down. On days where the market just goes straight parabolic or in a single direction (I call it a death march) the low volume signals tend to disappear leaving those trying to find the retraces dropping like flies and having to cover throughout the day.
Thank you kindly for the explanations. That means I look at the direction taken at 09:30-10:30 while also keeping an eye on volume. If volume remains high or is elevated, this would more or less confirm the direction taken in the first hour. If I see a drop in volume then the direction will most likely change to the opposite of the first hour. Is that it? Or did I misunderstand something?
For the most part that’s right. Volume will drop but you need to compare it to the daily norms. Like if the average drop in volume is down from 300K to 100K, a drop to 200K isn’t as significant as say a starting volume of 1.1M down to 500K. You want to look at where it’s going proportionally to the churn - excluding indexes (i.e. SPY, QQQ, DIA).
Awesome, thanks for the clarification! On which timeframe is that method most reliable? And on which timeframe can it be traded?
I usually look at the 200 Day since it smooths out any exceptions pretty well. If you’re closely following a stock though, you’ll know when you see the volume spike since it’ll be pretty obvious.
If green I open up the Porsche Configurator If red I close the Porsche Configurator
I thought this was some stock software I was not privy to at first. LOL
It's a nice bit of kit.
Same here
dont trade it, unless you stayed up all night tracking chinese pork belly futures, because you are data deficient and at a significant disadvantage. come to wsb first, see whar everyone is doing, and do the opposite.
First move is usually fake with a lot of volatility. Usually by 45 mins to an hour after open the market will adjust to new information and trend that way for a few hours.
So in answer to OP’s question you fomo in within the first 45 minutes then you sell at a loss at the days end
That's what I'm trying to correct.
You can't. Don't bother. First hour day trading is extremely volatile and will usually lead to losses instead. The wallstreet people know your moves and will simply inverse it to trap you to close your position. So if you buy, they'll say "haha fuck you" and then make the price continue fall. If you sell, they'll say "haha fuck you" again and then make the price rise like mad. This is why everyone here likes to say they can 'move markets inversely' by simply taking a position. It's not a joke. It's real. Retail investors are being screwed over daily
Ez. Never trust your first judgement. And never let them know your next move. Go long while shorting the long in your shorts then go long after the short with longshorts
Usually the move in the first 30 minutes is the fake one. And then around 10:10 the real move starts
That's what I've learned too. Do you try to capitalise on the movement in teh first 30 minutes?
I tried that. I don't recommend it.
If I’m Gambling, I look at the bollinger bands and if it breaks the upper or lower, I play mean reversion, quick 5-10% profit and get out….specifically on SPY.
This is truly how you make money. Playing SPY 0dte.
This is truly how I lose money. 0DTE everyday.
I am patient and use the force young padawan.
I use the size of my boner as direction in the morning.
In that case, the market is always going down
It’s easier if you just pick a side. I’m a perma bull. I look for upside setups. If I don’t see anything good I don’t take any trades. If I try something and it doesn’t work I take the L and wait for something else. Stocks don’t only go up but they do go up most of the time. I’ll take puts when we’re actually in a downtrend, which is rare. Feeling like you have to trade every day while not knowing what side you should be on leads to all kinda bad shit. Mainly just getting chopped up like oh it’s up wait shit calls didn’t work it’s going down I’ll try puts oh shit it bounced ok back to calls maybe calls on this and some puts on that oh shit that thing I sold 30 minutes ago is up 3x shit I shoulda just stuck with that now I’ll chase back in oh no it reversed again then it’s 4 hours later you’ve made 12 trades and (maybe) made like $34. Then a real opportunity presents itself and you’re either out of money or too mentally worn down to see it.
Sell it at open if things going 50% to 90% then wait for the second run up.
What Porsche guy said. But back when I was slowly winning my account back to even I wouldn’t trade during that time at all it’s a complete crapshoot. Of course as soon as I went even though I had to gamble again and now I might have to play it safe once more
Fake pump! Wait at least an hour before you decide to jump in!
Exit all green red positions then watch them turn green at 9:55.
I usually don’t make moves in the first 30 minutes of trading because I’ve seen too many fake outs
The first 30 minutes. can be a good way to average down on positions if your thesis is still playing out. Typically it can be a fake out. I use the daily chart to establish thesis of price movement over days or a week. Then use the GEX profiles and the daily chart to find entry or exit points. Typically only trade QQQ or Mag 7.
Premarket and after hours mean nothing to me unless I’m up big, then I may sell before normal trading hours…
Sir this is a casino
I don't touch the market for at least 1hr
First hour is amateur hour.
You don’t. You wait until actual volume comes in to see which direction trends are going. Pre/Post is too little volume to makes moves on.
It's a crapshoot. It can be up in premarket then up during the day, down in premarket then new record close, up in premarket then bottom falls out after earnings during the day. It's not worth your energy.
Dont trade during the first hour of market open. Trust me. Lost alot of money that way. The first hour is always fake and meant to fuck retail investors in the ass real hard. It doesnt matter whether you buy or sell, or can even predict the future. The wallstreet bankers will just automatically inverse you to fuck you hard in the ass hole. I believed I've single-handedly caused stocks to reach their ATH or ATH lows in a day just buying the fucked position
I trade the first 30min the way I trade any other time in the day, only hopping in if one of the 2 setups I use daily are present. I only trade false breakdowns/breakouts or actual breakouts/breakdowns off the backtests.
I usually rail a fat line of adderall and stare into my crystal ball
screwed= trading gap ups/down. no screwed = no trading gap ups/down?
So if you want to dca a stock what time during market open is stable to do it on the daily ?
I wanna swing trade.
You might like j bravo on YouTube, he talks about swing trading a lot. Might be bullcrap but it at least looks like he’s using various technical indicators and reading tea leaves, also his disclaimer is that it’s all paper trading but he somewhat hides that information sometimes cause he’s just hustling courses but I have learned a couple interesting strategies for losing money
I've had ok luck selling the rip or buying the dip from premarket lol or it'll make a quick pullback (bear/bull trap) and resume the trend from the prior day. Know your key support/resistances. But uhhh yeah I'm scared to hold shit overnight lol
ES goes down a bit around 10am CET then Vs up till spx opens
These days I feel like I must adapt: Opening will dip more than pre market, if not close position and buy intraday dip
Watch. Just watch.
I always watch what was the first moves at 4am on the 5min chart. I feel it often sets the tone for the day
I usually panic sell everything
Panik
Spy down? Buy! It isn’t going up.
Consider what the market is anticipating and pay attention to the data released and data that will be released. And pay attention to the bigger timeframes.
Tried it with nvda. Options data show optimism. Yet it keeps dumping. Thought MU would rise with good earnings. Yet it didn’t. Thought pce data in line with expectations would have been bullish. Nope.
PCE data was already priced in and climaxed with the released. I felt confident enough that the market was going to drop last Friday or have a weak move after the news. MU has been parabolic. Look at the weekly and monthly charts, it needed to cold down. Also current earnings is not the only thing that matter, it is the guidances too. NVDA was also overextended. I caught the recent bottom when I saw it kept dropping post-market. That made it oversold and I profited 10% in a single day from that (you also had the NVDA annual meeting after that). It takes a lot of thinking to understand and many times what we think we understand turn out to be wrong because we are missing pieces from the puzzle or misinterpreting things which can happen often. One thing I have really learned is to be patient and wait. One reason why I kept losing money is because I was rushing to be part of a trade thinking I will miss out. I would suggest to go to higher timeframes where things are more clear and less noises.
If you’re day trading, just skip the open until you look at a lot of charts. For longer term, intraday volatility shouldn’t be enough to hit your stop unless it’s from big news
EZ If green buy calls for over-inflated value at 9:31 and loses 65% when it drops and IV lowers If red buy calls for under-inflated value at 9:31 watch the stock drop until a 65% loss. Repeat until one day the FD's bought at opening print so hard I make up for 2 years of loses!