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Man Freedom Day sucks. I'm usually following PM now.
I like my normal daily routine. I do my real work when I'm rested and refreshed in the morning and then from 2:30pm-9pm GMT when I'm mentally fatigued, lack concentration and have poor judgement I trade short dated options. I find it works for me.
[Wife's programming algo intro quiz had this question](https://imgur.com/a/MjsU1DI)
How do I tell her the answer is definitely C not B like her book believes?
Okay so if C means put it into production like push the product out to consumers and then understand the problem that’s wrong
I’m drunk but from a work perspective C doesn’t make sense
Survived another day. Heading home tomorrow morning.
Gotta say, not sure how I made it through today. I got like 4 hours of broken sleep last night. Oh right, coffee. A fuck ton of coffee.
to be a sandwich, it has to have bread.
courts have ruled "subway bread is not bread"
"A panel of five judges dismissed the appeal on Wednesday, affirming that Subway bread is not legally bread because its sugar content is five times the qualifying limit under law."
holy fuck
i rolled a holy trinity joint (thats just what i call a joint with shatter, kief and hash all in one)
fucked me up bro
was liostening to alice in chains "bleed the freak" and managed to time my cum shot to when the bass comes back in at 2:40
if you know you know
holy fuck i shot ropes
I've been considering pulling all my US infestmenrs and investing locally
your country is going to shit lets.be real.
unfortunately my country only has two companies worth investing in, and one of them is only on nasdaq not local
Millennials Were Optimistic About Their Financial Future—but Now, Not So Much
Tldr
They thought QE was forever but forgot that some of them have to be poor so the others can remain paid.
Everyone is above average (if you are educated in the public school system).
[https://psychology.fandom.com/wiki/Lake\_Wobegon\_effect](https://psychology.fandom.com/wiki/Lake_Wobegon_effect)
AST Spacemobile. They're building a satellite based mobile network. It's a risky bet, but I think it might be a winner in the long run (5-7 years). They're launching a test sat in Septembre.
buying SQQQ says you expect markets to go down further
ASTS will not rally without your SQQQ position turning red and vice versa
And don't even say it's different time frames, because if you think QQQ will go down to make SQQQ green, then you should wait to buy ASTS, and if you think ASTS will go up then you should wait to buy SQQQ. You're basically saying "I don't know so I'm going to buy a call and a put so I can claim I won either way and hopefully nullify the bad one"
they follow each other relatively closely, but not so closely. i'm dca-ing into one over long term and trading the other one short term until the bearish trend reverses.
but why am i even talking to you
As "the powers that be" have not produced 0dte Challenge results as of 5:55pm PDST on SUNDAY, I have removed all evidence of my 13,000% winner. You will not be able to find any proof of that incredible play on this sub, on this site, even on the internet. Don't be mad at me, I did this out of principle. I had to. I wish you could've seen it.
So I'm convinced some people don't have a decision made (about everything, until you present the question then they choose a side) and depending on how you present the button the response may vary
So how do I get th se fuckers to stop calling ebhind and catching up x🤡🔫
Schrodinger's call
Thought it was alright. First part of season 4 was better (best since season 1) with the mystery, pacing, and tension. Parts of the finale dragged on too much, especially the whole thing with Russia.
Like
If I choose NLHE I have to deal with unreal variance
If I choose trading full time I have to deal with straight manipulation
Fucking hate having money but not enough money
When I was poor at least I was under the illusion shit would get better 🤡
Yup. The idea of a robust public bus system would require infrastructure that isn't really feasible in the suburbs in my opinion
The moment we started branching out from urban life to suburban life and even more rural Life cars are effectively the most efficient tool to get from point A to point B
Now you can make a very strong argument that fuel economy as well as thighs restrictions on cars could do more to alleviate the environmental and physical toll that they take on the world
For the problem is if I want to go to Walmart it's more effective for me to hop in my car drive 2 mi back and forth than have an entire bus line that comes from my house to that location and having breakfast run from point A to B to c to F to a1b110 whatever without sufficient volume which still means you have to build the buses you still have to keep them running pay drivers and effectively create this Frankenstein monster that will probably collapse in and of itself
Blah blah blah "..in my opinion"
nobody asked for it
if you want a counterargument, "Not just bikes"'s YouTube channel is full of hypnotic videos that 100% counter your argument by showing differences between how the US and cities like Amsterdam have done their city planning
now lets get back to some good old degenerate money burning.
So basically again I think it's a matter of psychology the May CPI coming in exactly at 1% month over month sent a pretty strong signal across the board hey one freaking percent and similarly I think if you see 9% CPI annualized year over year that's another round number that you just can't ignore
And the final point on this is July the month we are now in begins the annual cola social security year over year comparison so I've seen some sort of shock to the system some of these groups are estimating a close to 11% increase in benefits which is unsustainable
Sick w/ the covid this weekend. Happy 4th strangers.
Also considering my trades Friday, there should be a warning on my port like,
⚠️Do not trade w/ body temp above 102 degrees⚠️
Clev fed shows CPI at 8.67 y/y estimated
.97 m/m
Now there's two factors that could cause this estimate to fail in either direction
First energy prices including natural gas and oil did fall pretty precipitously the last couple of weeks
But in may we had a .3 beat to the upside and I believe that was because of airfares as well as food away from home that came in hotter than expected
Somebody published analysis which indicated the Cleveland feds estimate is usually below what the consensus and the eventual print is
So if the Cleveland Fed was again off by about 3 this time around that would give you a year over year of nine and I would imagine 100 basis points calls will start immediately thereafter
Now if it comes to the downside I still see 75 but yeah I think bonds will start to rally until you see how July comes in because the assumption then would be where is oil going to be if we consistently see energy staying precipitously high because financial conditions haven't tightened to the extent where demand is destroyed along with soaring prices in food shelter etc it's basically going to make things worse
So in some way irrespective of the data the FED should be thinking 100 in July as a base case because they can see or hopefully see problems arising in the instance that they signal doveishness
That someone was me, and I'll have more details to post before the next CPI print. In the meantime [this article](https://www.researchaffiliates.com/publications/articles/933-no-excuses-plan-now-for-recession) has some insights about inflation nowcasting and what it means for where inflation is headed. If they're right it's not looking good.
Is computery_stuff actually Campbell Harvey?
On a serious note, the article seems to be a more concisely written/better organized summary of what's been thrown around here for the last few months.
🙃
Sorry, I was waiting on 2 people clarifying issues with their submissions but they never came back. I'll post the results in an little bit after I get my dog back from the park
American Airlines Group Inc. [US:AAL] and the union that represents its pilots are discussing extra pay for some pilots to compensate them for flying future flights that got dropped from their schedules because of a computer glitch, the union said Sunday.
The Allied Pilots Association union said the airline’s scheduling platform mistakenly allowed pilots early Saturday morning to drop thousands of future trips. As a result, as many as 12,075 flights throughout the month of July lacked a captain, a first officer, or both, the union said.
Airlines are fucked like cruise lines, car manufacturers, and truckers. The added pandemic paperwork for travel ("papers, comrade") is also noteworthy. Gotta keep the serfs on the feudal estate.
>flying future flights that got dropped from their schedules because of a computer glitch
Uh huh, sure, _thats_ how those flight legs disappeared and your gate reservations expired
Moves tomorrow include:
1. Pack in the morning while corralling 3 kids
2. Drive 4 hours home with a screaming toddler
3. Unpack and throw on a hasty dinner
4. Pray fireworks don’t wake toddler
5. Walk around neighborhood with oldest
Probably start drinking as early as #3.
No kid gang checking in.
1. Wake up and chill
2. Maybe play elden ring, maybe clean around the house
3. Sip beer and chill
4. Laugh at u/jinpiss and hope he enjoys those drinks
Alright, here’s what I need you to do tomorrow:
Post a pic of every drink/blunt/gummy you consume and a fucked up joke.
Tag me in it and anyone else you want. I will be checking in sporadically and living vicariously through you until I can join.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/03/inflation-homeless-rent-housing/
I know let's QE so people have more money
- fucking brain damaged MMT disciples.
Also from the article
“I made good money — last year I made almost $100,000 — and I can’t believe this happened to me,” she said. “But with prices the way they are, it can literally happen to anybody.”
Yeah because the morons at the fed and the idiots in Congress propped up all the rich people. They aren't going to work to help you.
>BREAKING NEWS: @TSA officers screened 2,490,490 people at airport security checkpoints nationwide yesterday, Friday, July 1. It was the highest checkpoint volume since Feb. 11, 2020, when 2,507,588 people were screened. We are back to pre-pandemic checkpoint volume.
>https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/vp9kn1/weekend_discussion_thread/ielyxkx/
Was thinking about Cutie's comment a bit more. This data doesn't really mean much in isolation - I'd rather have actual passenger flights booked _and completed_. There are definitely fewer flight legs available, so many flights are getting canceled, pilot shortage is still being complained about if you're listening to any of the flyboy channels - I don't believe we're back at pre-pandemic volume at all.
I can see this making sense in 1 scenario - there are so many flights getting canceled and rebooked for the next day or days later that enough people are going through security twice (or more) for the same leg and that's hugely inflating the TSA numbers. [Looking at flightradar24, we can see the tracked commercial flights are well below pre-pandemic level by a good margin \(>10%\)](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) - and that's just _tracked_ flights, I'm not sure if that number also including canceled flights (since those are still scheduled commercial flights and so could be considered tracked).
January - March 2022 data from FAA (most recent I can find publicly released) https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/2022-06/June%202022%20ATCR.pdf
January - March 2019 data from FAA (to compare same relative times pre-post pandemic) https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/2020-06/June%202019%20ATCR%20revised%206-30-2020.pdf
Notable info on page 41 - Passenger Enplanmenet numbers (note: All U.S. airlines with at least half of one percent of total domestic scheduled-service passenger revenues plus any branded codeshare partners. - but on cursory comparison the airline list is the same between the two reports)
I see 166,751,879 passengers enplaned January-March 2022 and 195,732,814 passengers for January-March 2019
So that's still only 85% of the pre-pandemic passenger level.
Base site (if you want to poke around the other reports): https://www.transportation.gov/airconsumer/air-travel-consumer-report-archive
From there I found the Bureau of Transportation Stats page listing the airline on-time performance data - haven't really parsed any of this aside from grabbing April 2022 and April 2019 and looking at total number of flight entries - we see there 580,346 flights logged in the 2022 data and 668,364 flights in the 2019 data - or about 86% as many flights in the 2022 data as in 2019, matches pretty close to the passenger volume number above.
So basically - I believe air traffic is _not_ at pre-pandemic levels, and is actually around 85% of pre-pandemic levels - despite the deceptive TSA news blurb above.
/u/cutiesarustimes2
[I figured out what they did lol check it out here](https://ibb.co/DQPm4QL) (yes I know it's ugly - yellow is 2019 and blue is 2022, you have daily numbers overlaid on the 10 day average with the key data points labeled)
Pulled TSA numbers from https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput (so this is US only - and also the data they used for their release)
Guess what happened end of June/earlyJuly in 2019? A glut of about 500k passengers from the running average, and about 700k from the local average, that was quickly picked back up after the weekend.
Meanwhile this year we had no sudden decrease of passengers going through checkpoints. I don't see anything particularly noteworthy doing a google news search for air traffic with a two week buffer around July 01 2019 - but the TSA announcement is a bit disingenuous comparing typical peak season with typical low season anyway, and it doesn't seem coincidental they made that release on the same date that would have you looking at year-over-year data seeing an increase, too.
Next up is finding my US-only flight data again - that should give us a more accurate accounting of the actual flight numbers. Just thought this was funny and should be pointed out while I was looking at it.
/u/SuicidalInsanity /u/cutiesarustimes2
Hmm seems to have linked not to the filtered page I was looking at. I thought I was looking at US only flights - I'll have to recheck that when I'm back at my computer
Well it takes about 48 hours to replace a pint of blood. Then 4-8 weeks to completely replace the red blood cells. Solid plan if you’re waiting for that deposit to hit your account tomorrow👌
Just got back from a nice camp weekend with no reception, I missed the last few hours of trading on Friday. Looks like I’m down about 30% on my Tesla put, I can’t figure out if the delivery and production numbers are good or bad for my position. Seems to me it was within analyst expectations, not enough of a mess to really hurt the share price. If we see a rally in the markets I’m fucked.
I am currently working with 5 US mates here in Poland. We are throwing with the rest of the team (like 20 people, majorly Polish, but other EU citizens too) a barbecue with all that vein stuffing food, some fishing (the office is at a lake with camping space) and a fireplace at the evening.
Those 5 mates know shit. They think the gift was a 4hr working day (4th of July is not a day off here), they don't know this 4 hours are the above lol
it’s hard being me when it comes to wanting a relationship
Use razz berrys and ultra balls not pinaps and great balls
Anyone playing Levi's earnings on Thursday. This is ripe for 0dte plays. Just not sure what to do here. Maybe start loading puts tomorrow.
My wife wanted sex and I rejected her... I'm getting old :( SPY to $310 EoM :)
Have her DM me.
Hi I'm his wife wink wink
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
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$lyt momo day 2
Man Freedom Day sucks. I'm usually following PM now. I like my normal daily routine. I do my real work when I'm rested and refreshed in the morning and then from 2:30pm-9pm GMT when I'm mentally fatigued, lack concentration and have poor judgement I trade short dated options. I find it works for me.
Sellin' all my canadian shares at open
They selling themselves, don’t worry profits are transitory
Transitory is derogatory, we prefer trans-inflation adjusted individuals
[Wife's programming algo intro quiz had this question](https://imgur.com/a/MjsU1DI) How do I tell her the answer is definitely C not B like her book believes?
Okay so if C means put it into production like push the product out to consumers and then understand the problem that’s wrong I’m drunk but from a work perspective C doesn’t make sense
*Laughs in production debugging*
do you work for Bethesda?
I didn't see "futilely chase elusive bug, descend into madness" as an option. Unrealistic
I just count that part as my lunch.
corn dogs are burritos? this can’t be…
I prefer to think of them as breaded meatsicles
#LAUNCHING GRISTLE MISSILE
I would argue they're empanadas
i come back to argue the corn bread wrap is closer to a burrito’s tortilla than an empanada’s fried dough
IT'S DEEP FRIED YA PLEB
only time a corn dog is fried is at the fair. everybody else microwaves or ovens them
[Reference](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSMa6V7rJjQ&ab_channel=LifewithPapa)
The microwaved or ovened ones are fried at the factory numbnuts
This guy fucks
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Is a calzone an empanada?
Yes
what gives you the authority motherfucker
Survived another day. Heading home tomorrow morning. Gotta say, not sure how I made it through today. I got like 4 hours of broken sleep last night. Oh right, coffee. A fuck ton of coffee.
You at band camp?
OGs after dark: hotdog-sandwich debate Wtf people, where’s the pics of booze, food, and parties?
I just want to sleep man
Me at home with gummies and scared doggies What up fam
Yep. Built a fort out of couch cushions and blankets for the dog. Seemed to work pretty well.
tiddies?
Definitely tiddies
The mad downvoter is running amok.
Blade Trinity still good watching. Coootchie coo
Grillin
Why am I checking futes & not getting pussy lol
Username relevant
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That’s kinda weird dawg
Aye man if he teaching me how to make 💰 I could care less
[Make 💰?](https://static.india.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/avengers-415x246.jpg)
I just took a shower I think I'm gonna take another
HOTDOG WITH A HOTDUG BUN IS NOT SANWICH
I bet you think the meatball sub from subway also isn't a sandwich
to be a sandwich, it has to have bread. courts have ruled "subway bread is not bread" "A panel of five judges dismissed the appeal on Wednesday, affirming that Subway bread is not legally bread because its sugar content is five times the qualifying limit under law."
Ice cream sandwiches don't have real bread either, yet remain sandwiches But also the subway thing is only in Ireland lmao
Haven’t had it so I wouldn’t know
holy fuck i rolled a holy trinity joint (thats just what i call a joint with shatter, kief and hash all in one) fucked me up bro was liostening to alice in chains "bleed the freak" and managed to time my cum shot to when the bass comes back in at 2:40 if you know you know holy fuck i shot ropes
We call that a jeeter
***STICKY*** icky
What a weekend
hot dogs are sandwiches
Okay but no. Sandwiches are horizontal but hotdog is vertical so your fucking wrong
eat a hotdog horizontally and it become a sandwich. It's all about perspective.
What about his fucking wrong?
If you wrapped your dick in a hot dog bun it wouldn’t be a sandwich but if you put it in bread like a sandwich it would be
This bitch didn't grow up eating hotdogs out of bread.
Exactly. I have ate a hotdog out of bread BUT if you use a hotdog bun IT IS NOT A SANDWICH
Missing core memories
ban
Wrong They are tacos
Porque no los dos?
taco sandwiches?
Taco hotdog sandwiches?
That’s just sad tacos
Yas!
DAME BRUH IM DEAD ASS ABOUT TO BE THE FIRST MOFO ON SECTION 8 In the meta verse FOOK I FUTURES !!! 🥵🥵🥵
Can I get guaranteed government rent payment?
In UST
🥃 and Billy Joel to kick off 4th of July Cheers
Cheers dude 😎
Just always remember inflation is transitory boys
# DEEZ NUT ARE TRANSITORY Wait hold on… 🤔😳
They be around your knees shortly— let me check- yup at least your knees- gravity isnt kind to age
Yo I've got a four month wait on my snip snip Might have to resort to condoms.
You need at least 2 more tax deductions
Nope
You forgot to make it plural. Unless a tragedy has occurred. In which case, I'm sorry.
My brain is 4 beers in tonight 🥴
Only?
Lightweight checking in
It’s not the titanic 🤡
I can’t wait for the fake corn rally that will last a couple days… only to dump to the depths of hell
Bbby updated their return policy to exclude products that have been Significantly used lol
Back massagers in shambles.
Bloomberg confirms that Q2 stock outflows from the Asian Tigers were DOUBLE the prior record set in 2008.
foreigners have bought a lot of US stock (specifically large cap tech) in the last decade it'll be a big unwind if it does happen.
I've been considering pulling all my US infestmenrs and investing locally your country is going to shit lets.be real. unfortunately my country only has two companies worth investing in, and one of them is only on nasdaq not local
Millennials Were Optimistic About Their Financial Future—but Now, Not So Much Tldr They thought QE was forever but forgot that some of them have to be poor so the others can remain paid.
Everyone is above average (if you are educated in the public school system). [https://psychology.fandom.com/wiki/Lake\_Wobegon\_effect](https://psychology.fandom.com/wiki/Lake_Wobegon_effect)
I bet some of it has to do with stock-based compensation and how much it is worth after the last 6 month.
Futes red 😳 Don't come to the market tomorrow 😈
They’ve been a lot less predictive lately
Inverse predictive
Yas!
It's right there in the star spangled banner *Rockets red glare* They meant those red dildos rocketing down to the corem
Keep loading up on $ASTS and $SQQQ.
TF is ASTS?
AST Spacemobile. They're building a satellite based mobile network. It's a risky bet, but I think it might be a winner in the long run (5-7 years). They're launching a test sat in Septembre.
Pumping asts against qqq removes any of your post's legitimacy
uh no the market is bearish w rates hikes and this is cheap right now. buy when others are scared right?
buying SQQQ says you expect markets to go down further ASTS will not rally without your SQQQ position turning red and vice versa And don't even say it's different time frames, because if you think QQQ will go down to make SQQQ green, then you should wait to buy ASTS, and if you think ASTS will go up then you should wait to buy SQQQ. You're basically saying "I don't know so I'm going to buy a call and a put so I can claim I won either way and hopefully nullify the bad one"
they follow each other relatively closely, but not so closely. i'm dca-ing into one over long term and trading the other one short term until the bearish trend reverses. but why am i even talking to you
i WaNt tO InVeST iN SPacEx aNd KnOW ThEy aRE KiNG BuT tHeY AReNt pUbLIc So I wIlL ThRoW MoNEy aT pEnNy-To-BE SPacE StOCks anD cAlL iT InVeSTing
Hey I can retroactively downvote all your posts too, rocket scientist
I remember a dude pumping it when it was at it's top. It's interesting at least
GTFO THAT UN MERICAN HOW FUTURES THIS RED BRUH
Wait till Tuesday’s opening- all stocks are transitory in the drop
As "the powers that be" have not produced 0dte Challenge results as of 5:55pm PDST on SUNDAY, I have removed all evidence of my 13,000% winner. You will not be able to find any proof of that incredible play on this sub, on this site, even on the internet. Don't be mad at me, I did this out of principle. I had to. I wish you could've seen it.
i broked the 0dte challenge with a sick $4 gain
So I'm convinced some people don't have a decision made (about everything, until you present the question then they choose a side) and depending on how you present the button the response may vary So how do I get th se fuckers to stop calling ebhind and catching up x🤡🔫 Schrodinger's call
I’ve been told that I’m easily influenced and I believe it
Limit?
New stranger things go hard
Thought it was alright. First part of season 4 was better (best since season 1) with the mystery, pacing, and tension. Parts of the finale dragged on too much, especially the whole thing with Russia.
I do agree. With the russia part I feel like not much was accomplished
A parallel to real life, I suppose
There is a very good chance that I won’t lose any money tomorrow, so I have that going for me.
Hospital trips are expensive, and I'd personally value each finger on my hani at at least 10k. Be careful with the cherry bombs
Futures dying.
No open to stop the bleed either.
Down half a percent and you call it dying? Seriously? We closed at a recent high on Friday of course there'll be some sell the rippers.
I am futures
Like If I choose NLHE I have to deal with unreal variance If I choose trading full time I have to deal with straight manipulation Fucking hate having money but not enough money When I was poor at least I was under the illusion shit would get better 🤡
EASTERN CHINA CITIES TIGHTEN COVID CURBS AS NEW CLUSTERS EMERGE Well rip
r/fuckcars is a weird place.
I hate that sub, those fuckars
Disappointed that it’s not people fucking cars
Cars are useful but overused
they’re an absolute must in a lot of places. i wont argue they’re not overused tho
Yup. The idea of a robust public bus system would require infrastructure that isn't really feasible in the suburbs in my opinion The moment we started branching out from urban life to suburban life and even more rural Life cars are effectively the most efficient tool to get from point A to point B Now you can make a very strong argument that fuel economy as well as thighs restrictions on cars could do more to alleviate the environmental and physical toll that they take on the world For the problem is if I want to go to Walmart it's more effective for me to hop in my car drive 2 mi back and forth than have an entire bus line that comes from my house to that location and having breakfast run from point A to B to c to F to a1b110 whatever without sufficient volume which still means you have to build the buses you still have to keep them running pay drivers and effectively create this Frankenstein monster that will probably collapse in and of itself
Blah blah blah "..in my opinion" nobody asked for it if you want a counterargument, "Not just bikes"'s YouTube channel is full of hypnotic videos that 100% counter your argument by showing differences between how the US and cities like Amsterdam have done their city planning now lets get back to some good old degenerate money burning.
Futures red. Not surprising since the only ones trading right now on this national day of beer and BBQ are commies with no friends and family 😠.
Realists are trading now. And for the next 6 months.
So basically again I think it's a matter of psychology the May CPI coming in exactly at 1% month over month sent a pretty strong signal across the board hey one freaking percent and similarly I think if you see 9% CPI annualized year over year that's another round number that you just can't ignore And the final point on this is July the month we are now in begins the annual cola social security year over year comparison so I've seen some sort of shock to the system some of these groups are estimating a close to 11% increase in benefits which is unsustainable
Sick w/ the covid this weekend. Happy 4th strangers. Also considering my trades Friday, there should be a warning on my port like, ⚠️Do not trade w/ body temp above 102 degrees⚠️
Oh my hot gourd. Hope you feel better soon man, sucks being sick on holidays.
Thanks, man. Trying to make the best of it.
Clev fed shows CPI at 8.67 y/y estimated .97 m/m Now there's two factors that could cause this estimate to fail in either direction First energy prices including natural gas and oil did fall pretty precipitously the last couple of weeks But in may we had a .3 beat to the upside and I believe that was because of airfares as well as food away from home that came in hotter than expected Somebody published analysis which indicated the Cleveland feds estimate is usually below what the consensus and the eventual print is So if the Cleveland Fed was again off by about 3 this time around that would give you a year over year of nine and I would imagine 100 basis points calls will start immediately thereafter Now if it comes to the downside I still see 75 but yeah I think bonds will start to rally until you see how July comes in because the assumption then would be where is oil going to be if we consistently see energy staying precipitously high because financial conditions haven't tightened to the extent where demand is destroyed along with soaring prices in food shelter etc it's basically going to make things worse So in some way irrespective of the data the FED should be thinking 100 in July as a base case because they can see or hopefully see problems arising in the instance that they signal doveishness
That someone was me, and I'll have more details to post before the next CPI print. In the meantime [this article](https://www.researchaffiliates.com/publications/articles/933-no-excuses-plan-now-for-recession) has some insights about inflation nowcasting and what it means for where inflation is headed. If they're right it's not looking good.
Is computery_stuff actually Campbell Harvey? On a serious note, the article seems to be a more concisely written/better organized summary of what's been thrown around here for the last few months. 🙃
u/RAGE_CAKES 🥺
Sorry, I was waiting on 2 people clarifying issues with their submissions but they never came back. I'll post the results in an little bit after I get my dog back from the park
Didn’t he get super lit last night?
Yes
American Airlines Group Inc. [US:AAL] and the union that represents its pilots are discussing extra pay for some pilots to compensate them for flying future flights that got dropped from their schedules because of a computer glitch, the union said Sunday. The Allied Pilots Association union said the airline’s scheduling platform mistakenly allowed pilots early Saturday morning to drop thousands of future trips. As a result, as many as 12,075 flights throughout the month of July lacked a captain, a first officer, or both, the union said.
Jesus. Airlines have been completely fucked since covid
Airlines are fucked like cruise lines, car manufacturers, and truckers. The added pandemic paperwork for travel ("papers, comrade") is also noteworthy. Gotta keep the serfs on the feudal estate.
You would think they'd have some sort of plausibility check instead of code cowboying it.
>flying future flights that got dropped from their schedules because of a computer glitch Uh huh, sure, _thats_ how those flight legs disappeared and your gate reservations expired
Fucking yikes lmao
Feels like they're back in college right trying to add or drop a course
Moves tomorrow include: 1. Pack in the morning while corralling 3 kids 2. Drive 4 hours home with a screaming toddler 3. Unpack and throw on a hasty dinner 4. Pray fireworks don’t wake toddler 5. Walk around neighborhood with oldest Probably start drinking as early as #3.
No kid gang checking in. 1. Wake up and chill 2. Maybe play elden ring, maybe clean around the house 3. Sip beer and chill 4. Laugh at u/jinpiss and hope he enjoys those drinks
Alright, here’s what I need you to do tomorrow: Post a pic of every drink/blunt/gummy you consume and a fucked up joke. Tag me in it and anyone else you want. I will be checking in sporadically and living vicariously through you until I can join.
Unfortunately I'm only allowed to drink and have the memory of a goldfish so if you're lucky, I'll be able to deliver one
You can do it, I believe in you.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/03/inflation-homeless-rent-housing/ I know let's QE so people have more money - fucking brain damaged MMT disciples. Also from the article “I made good money — last year I made almost $100,000 — and I can’t believe this happened to me,” she said. “But with prices the way they are, it can literally happen to anybody.” Yeah because the morons at the fed and the idiots in Congress propped up all the rich people. They aren't going to work to help you.
Why are you readied wapo?
Saw it on my feed
Alcohol & fireworks 🎆
>BREAKING NEWS: @TSA officers screened 2,490,490 people at airport security checkpoints nationwide yesterday, Friday, July 1. It was the highest checkpoint volume since Feb. 11, 2020, when 2,507,588 people were screened. We are back to pre-pandemic checkpoint volume. >https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/vp9kn1/weekend_discussion_thread/ielyxkx/ Was thinking about Cutie's comment a bit more. This data doesn't really mean much in isolation - I'd rather have actual passenger flights booked _and completed_. There are definitely fewer flight legs available, so many flights are getting canceled, pilot shortage is still being complained about if you're listening to any of the flyboy channels - I don't believe we're back at pre-pandemic volume at all. I can see this making sense in 1 scenario - there are so many flights getting canceled and rebooked for the next day or days later that enough people are going through security twice (or more) for the same leg and that's hugely inflating the TSA numbers. [Looking at flightradar24, we can see the tracked commercial flights are well below pre-pandemic level by a good margin \(>10%\)](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) - and that's just _tracked_ flights, I'm not sure if that number also including canceled flights (since those are still scheduled commercial flights and so could be considered tracked).
January - March 2022 data from FAA (most recent I can find publicly released) https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/2022-06/June%202022%20ATCR.pdf January - March 2019 data from FAA (to compare same relative times pre-post pandemic) https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/2020-06/June%202019%20ATCR%20revised%206-30-2020.pdf Notable info on page 41 - Passenger Enplanmenet numbers (note: All U.S. airlines with at least half of one percent of total domestic scheduled-service passenger revenues plus any branded codeshare partners. - but on cursory comparison the airline list is the same between the two reports) I see 166,751,879 passengers enplaned January-March 2022 and 195,732,814 passengers for January-March 2019 So that's still only 85% of the pre-pandemic passenger level. Base site (if you want to poke around the other reports): https://www.transportation.gov/airconsumer/air-travel-consumer-report-archive From there I found the Bureau of Transportation Stats page listing the airline on-time performance data - haven't really parsed any of this aside from grabbing April 2022 and April 2019 and looking at total number of flight entries - we see there 580,346 flights logged in the 2022 data and 668,364 flights in the 2019 data - or about 86% as many flights in the 2022 data as in 2019, matches pretty close to the passenger volume number above. So basically - I believe air traffic is _not_ at pre-pandemic levels, and is actually around 85% of pre-pandemic levels - despite the deceptive TSA news blurb above. /u/cutiesarustimes2
[I figured out what they did lol check it out here](https://ibb.co/DQPm4QL) (yes I know it's ugly - yellow is 2019 and blue is 2022, you have daily numbers overlaid on the 10 day average with the key data points labeled) Pulled TSA numbers from https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput (so this is US only - and also the data they used for their release) Guess what happened end of June/earlyJuly in 2019? A glut of about 500k passengers from the running average, and about 700k from the local average, that was quickly picked back up after the weekend. Meanwhile this year we had no sudden decrease of passengers going through checkpoints. I don't see anything particularly noteworthy doing a google news search for air traffic with a two week buffer around July 01 2019 - but the TSA announcement is a bit disingenuous comparing typical peak season with typical low season anyway, and it doesn't seem coincidental they made that release on the same date that would have you looking at year-over-year data seeing an increase, too. Next up is finding my US-only flight data again - that should give us a more accurate accounting of the actual flight numbers. Just thought this was funny and should be pointed out while I was looking at it. /u/SuicidalInsanity /u/cutiesarustimes2
Ya, that's an unusual drop.
Were there storms or something? I couldn't find anything relevant on a cursory search, but maybe you remember something
Nothing I remember, but I don't live in the states. Maybe Delta covid wave?
No that was later in 2020
But you are comparing global data (flight radar) vs. US only data (TSA). How much of that missing 10% is just flights to russia?
Hmm seems to have linked not to the filtered page I was looking at. I thought I was looking at US only flights - I'll have to recheck that when I'm back at my computer
How sustainable do you think drinking your own blood is?
infinite iron glitch
Well it takes about 48 hours to replace a pint of blood. Then 4-8 weeks to completely replace the red blood cells. Solid plan if you’re waiting for that deposit to hit your account tomorrow👌
Fuck around and ~~find~~ pass out
Hmm NQ lower than funny money Tuesday might be interesting
Probably some move to eat some steak then make some moves in the bathroom.
My moves are to bring some nice pet-nats to the bbq and check my phone every 5 minutes to see if the Lakers actually get Kyrie
Just got back from a nice camp weekend with no reception, I missed the last few hours of trading on Friday. Looks like I’m down about 30% on my Tesla put, I can’t figure out if the delivery and production numbers are good or bad for my position. Seems to me it was within analyst expectations, not enough of a mess to really hurt the share price. If we see a rally in the markets I’m fucked.
Probably rally on that, then crash when China announces further shanghai lockdowns (still doing 0 covid)
What are your moves tomorrow: beer and titties
My government wants to take away my juul pods, I finally [understand](https://youtu.be/XebF2cgmFmU) the sovereign citizen movement
Blokes got me on the penis people
I am currently working with 5 US mates here in Poland. We are throwing with the rest of the team (like 20 people, majorly Polish, but other EU citizens too) a barbecue with all that vein stuffing food, some fishing (the office is at a lake with camping space) and a fireplace at the evening. Those 5 mates know shit. They think the gift was a 4hr working day (4th of July is not a day off here), they don't know this 4 hours are the above lol
Sounds awesome