Attrition is hitting Russia's army hard from just the battlefront in Ukraine alone (albeit a Ukraine aided by NATO countries). An all-out war with NATO would a turkey shoot.
It's not clear how long it would take to gain air superiority unfortunately...
I can't find it now, but back in 2022 a senior US Air Force commander was asked hypothetically how the US would have handled invading Ukraine (as a comparison against what the Russians did), and he said something along the lines of "over four weeks of SEAD missions before any non-SF troops crossed the border"...
F-22s alone would just allow the destruction of the Russian Air Force by our combat aircraft. They would not stand a shot against the US. It is very hard to accurately portray how much better the USAF is against Russia. And they know this.
There's two parts of what makes the 22 so incredible: 1) What it was made to do and actually was successful 2) The insane amount of progress past every plane in the world that it surpassed.
So the F-22 is a stealth fighter, on steroids. In terms of russia, it is VERY hard to be seen, VERY fast, and more imporantly good at doing it's job while being VERY fast. It can see you and shoot you before you see them because of it's incredible radar and EW (Electronic Warfare). It can jam ground anti-aircraft with it's EW. It can collect critical infromation on aircraft in the area, what they're doing, and then people can decide 1) Where should be most worries about and avoid? 2) Who should we kill first, and who can we safely wait to kill?
It can also do ground support but probably wouldn't be used for this in this conflict unless you consider being able to zero in on a SAM launch and destroy it while getting away part of ground support.
It can do more than this but that is classified even if it's open on the internet. It, however was super expensive and at least as we know publicly, no more are being made at all. The F-35 is supposed to take over most of it's roles but nothing will beat the F-22 for a long time. It's one of those rare aircraft that is just decades ahead of their time.
Edit: Should have said TLDR: It will kill anything in the sky, and maybe on the ground without being hit, and maybe not even seen, and get back and also have critical intelligence information. That is the perfect aircraft.
It’s pretty wild how little people understand about how insane NATOs air superiority advantage is. There are a like a dozen individual member nations with larger fifth generation fighters fleets than Russia, and even if China entered the fray it is a STAGGERING imbalance.
In short, the first sign for Russian pilots that F-22s are operating in the area during a direct conflict will be the master caution alarm signaling an incoming missile tracking on them. And once that alarm sounds, they'll have a few seconds to decide whether to attempt to evade it or just eject.
I once saw a comparison of Russian fighter costs to the F-22 and immediately knew it wasn't a fair comparison. The fair comparison is the cost of a Russian fighter against the cost of an AIM-120 AMRAAM missile.
Exactly. The higher up the tech goes, the more the gap increases. They do have good AA, but it’s not enough. Or even close. It would be…..bad for Russia.
A really interesting statistic is that of the top 5 largest air forces in the world, 4 of them are US military branches (USAF, USN, Russia, USAA, and USMC). The Coast Guard alone has half as much aircraft as the entire German airforce.
Given that the weapons don't require any sort of interface with the aircraft dropping them, and utilizes an already existing missile, the AGM-158 JASSM, capable of independent telemetry, I'd say it wouldn't be out of the question to see it pressed into service.
I’ve seen Alex Hollings explain it on YT and the concept is interesting. Yes, it seems very modular. I’m just wondering what the command and control hurdles are…stuff like targeting updates, etc. I’m sure those platforms (C-130, C-17, C-5) need to have some additional tech added to handle that…but maybe it’s part of the cargo load out…specialists with a fancy briefcase to speak to the racks of munitions in flight.
Lmao imagine using a C-5 for that mission. The absolute disrespect.
“Yeah we’re going to send our biggest, most lumber-y transport aircraft to fire a metric ton of cruise missile at you. And guess what? There’s absolutely nothing you can do about it”
I can't find anything saying that it's in service yet. the concept though is really quite simple so I'd be shocked if they couldn't rush it into service if needed
A SEAD mission stands for Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses. It's a military operation aimed at neutralizing an enemy's air defense systems like surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and anti-aircraft artillery (AAA). This allows friendly aircraft to operate freely in the airspace without being shot down. SEAD missions can be carried out through destroying enemy radar and missile sites or by deploying electronic warfare techniques to disrupt their operations. These missions are vital for achieving air superiority in a conflict.
The US has over 70 active Arleigh Burke destroyers, each with somewhere around 90 tomahawk missiles. Thousands of missiles ready to launch, obviously they aren't all in range of Russia, but hundreds are. Then of course there are air-launched missiles. All that to say, Russia could be overwhelmed pretty quickly from an air defense perspective.
I'm going to make a wild guess that if it comes to this, then China will make a move for Taiwan at the same time. This will split the US to two war fronts.
Edit: Yes I already knew the US can fight on 2 fronts. I'm just saying China will wait for a time as such to take their move.
My guess is that before doing anything, the US would have situated probably 4 aircraft carriers in the pacific as deterrent. I think with Russia, unlike say Iraq, regime change could end the entire conflict. I would expect the US would step back basically as soon as air defense and weapons manufacturing had been taken out. From there would be a primary goal of getting rid of Putin that would become a NATO led mission.
The US would never invade Russia proper, because that would cross a clear nuclear threshold and would permit Putin to use nuclear weapons "defensively," which he almost certainly would. So regime change might be the goal, but the method would be to cripple Russia's military and defense industrial base from afar, without triggering a nuclear response, so that the Russian government can no longer project power abroad or suppress dissent at home. And then they would let nature take its course, allowing the Russian people to figure out what to do with Putin, rather than anything involving boots on the ground and the potential for a nuclear quagmire. Even a short period of US/NATO air strikes would substantially improve the Ukrainians' ability to maintain their own defense, thus buying time for Ukraine while still permitting a quick pivot away from Russia to the pacific if the Chinese tried to take Taiwan.
Which standing US doctrine requires readiness for as standard protocol.
"War with 2 separate peer nations and 1 minor conflict simultaneously." <- Ever wondered why US military spending is out of control, this is why.
People who are critical of military spending are often naive to the fact we still have opposition across the world who would heavily prefer to see the US significantly destabilized.
The US Navy keeping maritime trade routes open and safe is one of the fundamental guarantors of global stability.
We really do underwrite the defense of a lot of nations with all that money.
> It's a military operation aimed at neutralizing an enemy's air defense systems like surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and anti-aircraft artillery (AAA).
Sort of. DEAD would be truly neutralizing them. SEAD is suppression, typically in support of other concurrent missions.
I would agree that it would take a long time to truly make it safe for enemy soldiers (just like the long air campaign preceeded the invasion of Iraq) but I would think that within 48 hours of conflict beginning, bombing runs by stealth aircraft would have destroyed enough Russian aircraft, radar arrays, and runways that the conclusion would no longer be in doubt.
Yeah, B-2 stealth bombers are based in Missouri, not forward deployed in Europe. That's probably the most distant asset that would be used in initial strikes. So it would be an annoyingly long flight, but stuff would start exploding the same day POTUS ordered the map cleaned up. Stuff like F-35's are based a lot closer, so they'd have a much shorter flight to get to the action. I wouldn't be surprised if the first strikes were in the air within a few hours of getting an order. Or perhaps minutes if there was advance warning that a presidential order was imminent.
Russian air defense systems would probably not be good at dealing with a dozen stealth bombers each with dozens of long range weapons dismantling the air defense. There might be a few weeks of cleanup to track down the last few systems that had been turned off during the first day or two. But the inactive systems don't pose a huge threat in the mean time until somebody turns them back on.
I mean, look at the recent strikes in Iraq and Syria. The US used B-1s based in Texas. Presumably as much as a show of power and ability to project force as anything else.
If Putin is okay with waging "asymmetrical activity" against the US, that tells me Putin is fine with the US waging asymmetrical activity against Russia. Period.
That's something for the history books.
I dunno, that's pretty clear if you ask me. Point is it's a question of weeks, not months or years, with minimal NATO losses.
Not to Red Alert this or anything but it's pretty clear Russia can't even stop pretty basic cruise missiles, let alone F35's. You could park HIMARS far enough back from the front that it's out of artillery range and Russia couldn't get anything to within 80km of the front.
While I mostly agree, do not underestimate the S300/400’s. They are killers… yes, they have been getting plugged by Ukraine from time to time but they are still one of the most feared AA batteries out there.
Know your enemy…
While I agree that they do significant damage in Ukraine *at the moment*, let's not forget those AA batteries are used against old soviet era planes. Factor in that these planes don't have any meaningful and modern EW capability and the S300/400 are probably tested during development against those specific planes employed by former soviet states and it makes sense that they are a force to be reckoned with in the current battlefield.
However, there's a good chances that western Gen4 fighters like the F16 with modern EW capabilities, do significantly better. Let alone if Gen5 fighters like the F35 and F22 hit the battlefield. While not impossible, I seriously doubt the S300, or even the S400 could make a significant dent in NATO's stealth fighter fleet. And once those stealth fighters have taken out the better part of Russia's AA capabilities, it's game over.
>And once those stealth fighters have taken out the better part of Russia's AA capabilities, it's game over.
Putin has taken care of that himself already. He's throwing everything the Russian military has at Ukraine, and they've already lost a significant number of those AA systems. A full on war with NATO would see them going in with already significantly depleted air defense resources, so they would get steamrolled very quickly.
Cool, but the US alone cannot force Ukraines surrender. Hell, with European supplies alone, Ukraine likely will be able to drag this war out for (very bloody) years.
We would lose some jets, but each time they fire one that site will get obliterated. They would HAVE to take out all our spy satellites as a first strike. Which in turn would give us a fair warning that action was about to happen. They are in a bad spot to attack a nato country IMHO.
They have the capability, so do we, how reliable is who knows. S400s are huge we can easily detect thermally from space. So even without using HARM munitions we can find them if they launch.
Ukraine has taken out so much more than "from time to time."
And taking out those A-50s, plus the A-50 repair site means it's getting much worse.
The attrition is hitting Russia hard, they've got huge stockpiles, but they're not unlimited, and they weren't exactly doing a great job with how those stockpiles were cared for - so it's a lot of refurbishment just to get those things out.
As a great example, due to sanctions and how much Russia now relies on outside manufacturing, they currently produce about 200 tanks a month, but they're losing well over that per month - so the stockpiles have kept shrinking and older and older tanks get seen on the battlefield.
Stuff that was good gear in the 60's is commonly seen these days, with occasional sightings of 50's era tanks.
Russia has a lot of stuff, but not enough to keep going like they've been going.
Imagine being the one asshole in the world that has justified the unification and pacts from the largest swaths of land in the northern hemisphere of the entire world. Not only is it enormous, it's also growing (e.g. Findland & Sweden) because you're just that much of a piece of shit that no one can trust you to stay in your lane.
The war in Ukraine is Putin's death warrant. The sherriff in town isn't wearing pants and has proven to be ineffective. If he doesn't conquer Ukraine, he's as good as dead, and that day cannot come soon enough.
People say this all the time but I just don’t think it’s true. Putin doesn’t need to “win” the war, all he needs is to show that he gained territory and he will be heralded as a hero. Do not underestimate Moscow’s ability to spin the truth. Putin has a ton of consolidated power and there aren’t any signs of that changing.
This is all just the New Generation Warfare Doctrine (or the Gerasimov Doctrine, if you happen to be called Valery Gerasimov) in action, it always has been the case that Russia has wanted to achieve their military aims by committing the least amount of physical resources to war as possible, and it has been the case for at least a decade that they will do this by causing as much social/political strife in their enemies as possible.
Liberal democracy is the least bad system of polity we have in my opinion, but it certainly isn’t perfect, specifically in this case, it’s exploitable, Russia can create divisions that didn’t exist before, and exploit ones that already did through the transmission of information alone.
Every time you hear him make a nuclear threat towards a NATO country for example, just think about how people, many of whom have little to no knowledge of geopolitics, would react. Some would be angry, some would be worried and some would pay no attention to it at all. Even just this specific fear as an example is dividing the German public on support for Ukraine at the moment, and all Putin has done to achieve this is simply said something. The same is happening all over western countries, it must be said though.
From now on whenever you hear Putin say something about a red line or a military/nuclear response for example, think about exactly who he is speaking to, because most of the time it’s the electorate in respective NATO countries. As long as legitimate scholarly sources such as Chatham House or the ISW (this can also include the US intelligence making press releases) say that asymmetrical warfare is still Putin’s preferred doctrine, he will continue to tailor a lot of his public statements towards dividing the western public over supporting Ukraine, either out of fear, or weird conservative isolationist sentiment in the US’s case.
At the end of the day Putin wants to commit the least amount of capitol, both physical, human and political, to the war, and by that logic he can only achieve this by having the west commit slightly less than he is, and he will try to do this by using information to his advantage to divide us over support.
A hybrid-autocracy like his has no issue with public divisions over support for the war, given their monopoly on information in Russia, but we do by the very system we are trying to uphold unfortunately, the information space in liberal democracies is anarchic and exploitable, but the more people who know this, the easier it will be to achieve our goals in Ukraine, don’t let the autocrats win.
TLDR: this has been Russia’s way of waging war for a decade or so, create/exploit social/political divisions in Liberal Democracies so their support for a Russian enemy wains out of public fear of Russian relation, or general misunderstanding of the situation. Putin will continue to use this as long as the Russian military doesn’t face a total collapse.
Ah cheers, I got my degree in German and Political science recently and I haven’t been able to find a (grown up) job yet so I try to keep my mind in the zone by furiously typing humongous walls of text about geopolitics on Reddit.
Also, let people be angry and throw insults around, it’s better than people saying something along the lines of “oh good, he just wants to take back land in his historical sphere of influence, even the US says he isn’t a threat to NATO”.
> "This will range from using energy to try to coerce cooperation and weaken Western unity on Ukraine, to military and security intimidation, malign influence, cyber operations. espionage, and subterfuge."
Fox News will still blame raising energy prices on Biden.
The Murdoch family, through spreading misinformation through their media empire (like Fox News) has probably killed 100s of thousands of people.
They've helped spread pro-war lies to spread support for unjust wars. They've spread doubt into life saving vaccinations. They've cause a political spectrum of people to want to stop support for Ukraine.
Look back over the last 30 years of Fox News... how many people have died because of the misinformation the Murdoch family has allowed to spread?
That family should be in court for the damage they have caused to families around the world.
Not even death, but my family is an example of elderly relatives being destroyed by the propaganda. I couldn't even talk to my grandpa in the final years of his life without Fox News garbage coming up. The news groups are doing SO MUCH harm even if it's not measurable.
I feel your pain. Literally the last communication I had with mine before he passed away was a message exchange of him telling me I wasn’t respectful and then me telling him that respect is earned and his behavior toward other family members wasn’t earning him any. He never responded and I honestly believe that was at least part of what robbed him of his will to keep going. Fox News basically poisoned him indirectly.
At the very least, Fox News spread lies and propaganda and slandered people, institutions, and companies all in support of an insurrection/coup attempt.
Their broadcast and corporate licenses should be revoked and all of their assets should be seized and auctioned off.
The damage of the destruction of the fourth estate here and elsewhere really can't be overstated. A functioning press is of ultimate importance to a democracy; the ability to vote barely matters anymore if few know what's actually going on.
I agree, and will add that a lot of small towns have lost their newspapers. Also, reporting is reduced everywhere. A 2018 study shows that corruption increases in "news deserts" because no one is investigating shady practices, resulting in banks charging more for loans, causing higher costs for local government.
> As local newspapers shrink or disappear, opportunities increase for politicians and public employees to reach into the cookie jar and help themselves. After all, one of journalism’s most important functions is to act as a watchdog on government. As far back as 2009, the internet scholar Clay Shirky said that he expected to see an explosion of “casual endemic corruption” as more and more small papers shut down.
> But how to quantify that? According to a new study, the lack of oversight can be measured by a rise in the cost of government in communities that lose their newspapers. Kriston Capps writes in CityLab that researchers at the University of Notre Dame and the University of Illinois at Chicago found that a municipality’s borrowing costs increase in statistically significant ways in “news deserts” — that is, in places where there is no longer a news outlet that reports on important local issues.
“A local newspaper provides an ideal monitoring agent,” the researchers write in their as-yet-unpublished paper. “Mismanaged projects can be exposed by investigative reporters employed by the local newspaper. When a newspaper closes, this monitoring mechanism also ceases to exist, leading to a greater risk that the cash flows generated by these projects will be mismanaged.”
https://www.wgbh.org/news/commentary/2018-06-06/a-new-study-measures-the-cost-of-corruption-when-the-local-newspaper-dies
They could have dumped 10% of their wealth at a food bank and then fucked off to a private island forever, and made the world a much better place overnight than doing all this fresh hell they've unleashed.
Fox news will keep blaming everything on Biden even 5 years after Biden is dead. They're still blaming Obama for stuff, and he hasn't been in office for over 7 years.
That been the cycle for way to long. Democrat spends most of their term trying to fix or at least triage things, then Republican benefits from the long term effects and claim credit as loot and destroy (starve the beast), then people realize they want a responsible adult in charge again and the cycle repeats.
While fickle pendulum voters just go to whoever is not the one in power currently if things are not going exceptionally well, so to keep cycle going GOP just has to obstruct and wait 4 years each time chipping away a bit more at the structures of the government.
>Then have a guy on that claims, "birds aren't real".
But that would mean they have someone on the air who knows what they are talking about, which doesn't really track for Faux News.
The SVR has significantly ramped up cyber attacks on the US in the last 6 months. Russia wants to sow as much chaos and do as much damage to NATO countries as it can using anything but it's military.
It's well past time we just put up a new Iron Curtain and just cut Russia off from the economy, culture, and resources of the west.
Russian to another. "We're at war with NATO."
Other: "So how's that going?"
"Not great, we've lost 400,000 men."
"How many has NATO lost?"
"None- they haven't arrived yet."
I watched his interview today and the man is really a psychopath.
I have trouble sleeping if I need to present remotely on a conference call the next day, but this guy is out her with billions of people calling for his head and looks cool as a cucumber.
I'm surprised one crazy guy has solved this problem for the world already. Not that the next guy would be much better, but I can't imagine taking out one 71 year old dude can be all that hard to do if you were really committed.
It wasn't his family that were threatened, the internal security services targeted the families of his officers. They were all basically told to stop or their families would pay the price.
That's quite impressive. Thanks. Not sure what they expected. They obviously had to get out of Ukraine because they were getting fucked up, but to think they could get away with marching on Moscow is crazy.
Agree. The play there was for Prighozen to say: “You touch a hair on any of our families’ heads… and we will do 10X worse to your families. You want to get depraved we are 10X more depraved I promise you. This is your warning.
If you leave your office peacefully, however, we will allow you and your families to seek asylum. You have my word, you and your families will not be tortured, mistreated, or killed.”
And keep right on marching. Heck, you go double time after that.
Prighozen and Wagner had Putin dead to rights… Moscow and the Kremlin were fucked… and then they just… stopped.
>Prighozen and Wagner had Putin dead to rights… Moscow and the Kremlin were fucked… and then they just… stopped.
There would have been a very bloody war in and around Moscow. The place is heavily fortified because the Moscovian elites have never trusted any other Russian.
This is true, and easily forgotten...in my case, as I have always maintained that the people jumping off the decks of penthouses in Russia, are in fact committing suicide, because they are being told, "If you do not do as we wish, your family or someone you love dearly will die". Putin really is the quintessential low life.
There's many different reasons including acquiring business interests/forced selling.
In Russia in the early and mid 90s the move was on to privatize state run business, industry and government assets. A number of criminal organizations sprung up, with many of them well educated, politically connected and ruthless.
There was much blood shed in Russia by Russians trying gain a foothold in/or get control of a various industries in Russia. It was the wild west for a few years and no doubt Poutine was part of it. I read an article years ago about it and they figures there was close to 200 people had died, been murdered in the fight for control of Russia aluminum industry. Some of these were innocents such as people working within government, in the industry as regulators or involved in the privatization process.
We all know no one can say anything really bad about Poutine or they pay the ultimate price. Navalny dying was no common heal crisis.
Unlikely; while his advance was rapid and relatively unopposed (relatively - they did still shoot down some helicopters and the like), Putin would have reserved reliable and well-equipped formations to defend himself and Moscow because he is, fundamentally, a coward.
I would stipulate that if nukes weren’t in the conversation NATO could march to Moscow and completely overthrow Putin’s government in 2-3 months max if it really wanted to. NATO has more troops, better training, better coordination strategy, better air and water support, better weapons, and better morale. It would be a bloodbath.
> completely overthrow Putin’s government in 2-3 months max
It'll probably be a 3 day special military operation and then 57 days of trying to figure out who's in-charge of fixing what
A few posts down there is an article with the Polish president saying we are living in pre war times in Europe, making it sound like war with Russia is inevitable.
Who to believe?
Both.
Putin did actually intend on starting WW3, but he was banking on China making a move on Taiwan to stretch the west thin. For one reason or another China backed out (hopefully because they saw what a disaster that would be) and left him to deal with it alone. He doesn't want an open conflict because he knows he can't win. Nukes won't be used because that's pretty much the end of Europe at least, with Russia included.
On the other hand he can't stop, because that would be the end of his regime. Authoritarians must show power and control at all times, otherwise they will disappear quite violently and another will take their place. That's also why they keep parroting domestically that an end to his life or order is an end to Russia itself. You might think that's exaggerated, but as he and his inner circle is concerned it's true. It's expand and keep the people busy or die (at least this iteration of government).
So the only thing left to do is continue a cold war, or an informational war, where they try subvert our democratic systems, meddle in elections, steer public opinion so that their allies (like Trump) get in office and help him out.
The Polish on the other hand know exactly what's gonna happen, because it's happened before. They know there is no world where they (and cut Europe in half, across Germany and Hungary and choose the right side) are allowed to simply exist and coexist with Russia. They know that this is an imperial movement that will only stop with violence, because talking to them is pointless, just like talking to Hitler was pointless.
So they are preparing for war, because the alternative is to trust the west and the US specifically that they won't give up on them when (not if) Russia decides to expand again as they've been doing since the 90s.
Edit: Like clockwork, I triggered the nest of troll farms with their post truth lies and alternate reality. You will not win.
I will always point to Putin’s objection to Poland gaining Patriot systems 15 years ago as the true indicator of Putin’s intentions.
This was a purely defensive weapons system, located on NATO territory. Which drew to the uncomfortable conclusion that Putin felt waging offensive action against existing NATO territory was on the table for him.
That more than anything else should have raised the fucking alarm bells amongst western leaders.
>For one reason or another China backed out (hopefully because they saw what a disaster that would be) and left him to deal with it alone.
Yup, he doesn't understand naval power, and his navy didn't explain that they needed more than 6 months flightops training on a converted, former bankrupt casino to take Taiwan, and he was furious to find that out.
It's why PLAN spending is off the fucking charts right now, he hoped to line up right after he finished getting HK wrapped up, and then he hoped putin would win and paralyze the west with fear after that and Afghanistan so they would basically give him Taiwan (or agree not to defend/supply it going forward, basically respect a blockade).
I thank God every day that Xi is such an idiot, I can't imagine how terrifying China could be if they weren't lead by someone who loves to stick their dick in a meat grinder as often as possible. We could vote Trump out, the Chinese are just fucked.
Part of me wonders if China did it on purpose and let Russia get wreckt so they can have unlimited access to natural resources. Who needs Taiwan when you can subjugate russia from all directions (resources, market domination, military alliance dependency, etc).
If they did steer things this way, Xi might be smarter than you think and it would be an incredibly impressive diplomatic op. At this point they are the only ones actually winning in this conflict (and India of course), but China has a lot more influence and power.
Russia is going to be completely economically dependent on China after the war. Regardless of who wins on the ground, the strategic victor will be Beijing.
They already are dependent on China. From vehicles to financial departments, to goods and whatnot. They are already so deep it would take decades to get out of it and find alternatives or develop their own.
That's why I wonder if China did it on purpose. It's a god damn economic and strategic miracle for them. 'Friendship without limits' my a\*\*, China is slowly turning them into NK 2.0 and Putin's gang seem more than eager to take up that role.
I think you're taking the causality backwards.
He attacked Ukraine largely because China was getting strong and he wanted to show he wasn't the junior partner, see mussolini attacking Ethiopia, which worked out slightly worse for Italy.
The US could have made that deal: we split Russia, they get Siberia, we get the west half, China would have spent 50 years digesting that mess, and not bothered anyone.
15 years ago my biggest fear was Russia and China finally figuring out how powerful their resources, manpower and tech would be when combined. I feel like an idiot, because at the end of the day it's still Russia, which is one of the worst allies you can burden anyone with, so let them combine, the poor Chinese saps.
>Part of me wonders if China did it on purpose and let Russia get wreckt so they can have unlimited access to natural resources.
I think you're right on the money here. They're eyeing the resources in the eastern part of Russia. It would *benefit* them to have Russia weakened, because they could swoop in to the land and start pillaging it.
China did seize Russian land by redrawing the border after Ukraine invasion.
Putin did not respond to the new border. It is now Chinese land.
Russia is so evil but China is also so comically evil they are in land dispute with every single neighboring country. Like wtf who just opens fronts in every direction?
Imagine if US just antagonized Mexico and Canada non stop.
Oh wait Trump did that.
It's almost as if conservatives in love with rigid hierarchies tend to put morons in charge.
I only needed to read your first paragraph to understand you have no clue what you are talking about. China lacks the capabilities to invade Taiwan. If China were to stage an invasion of Taiwan the whole world would have known months in advance. A simultaneous invasion of Taiwan and Ukraine wouldn’t stretch the West thin since one would be a naval war and the other would be a land war.
Also, China hasn't invaded Taiwan because they know it'd basically tank the entire global stock market. Taiwan and the US have both stated that the second China invades, they will blow up the advanced chip foundries responsible for the vast majority of high-end consumer electronics; if you recall the shortage during covid for things like cars/phones/laptops/computers/etc, imagine near *zero* supply for the next 4-6 years.
We’re always either “at war” or “living in pre war times”; this on the other hand is an explicit and clear official assessment published by US intelligence services, which were right on the money with their official assessments regarding Russia’s moves as far back as just before the beginning of the war
We ARE at war with Russia, for all intents & purposes - just not one with conventional weapons (yet). They are aggressively engaged in active measures against the US & NATO in the form of disinformation to influence elections (e.g. Hillary's emails) and to sow discord within our countries.
If you can't win by attacking a country from the outside, then you do it from within.
"Asymetcic activity" will include (yet again) internet troll farms to spread disinformation and exploit social/political rifts (like the American liberal/ conservative divide in an election year as well as race, gender/sexuality, 2A, social programs ect.)
Remember that when you see especially divisive posts on social media (even the ones from the side you agree with.....they actively play both sides) Anger, conflict and confusion are their goals. It's time we started being smarter. Don't give them the oxygen they need to fuel the fire.
"Asymmetric activity" is like how he made Donald Trump president.
In other words, he can do a LOT Of damage that way and turn nations against each other.
Exporting Kremlin disinfo into western democracies over the last 20+ years in order to weaken and undermine them from within is about Putin's only real success during his reign.
Plus brutalising and fascisting his own population.
A counter-operation is already underway. Exposure of Russia’s election interference leading to the election of a U.S. President with authoritarian tendencies spawned counter-messaging aimed at promoting democracy and denouncing dictatorship. Sure, intelligence is crucial to understanding the challenges our foes pose. But a society free to express interest, petition its government, and voice various opinions benefits from the law of large numbers when leveraging the wisdom of crowds via democratic means. So, we have and continue to see this message promoted by a free press that enjoys its freedom under the First Amendment, which also protects the free speech that informs the press.
Anyone with a brain knows that Russia easily loses a conventional confrontation with NATO. In a nuclear war, *everyone loses* but Russia especially loses. There’s no scenario where Russia comes out the other side better after battling NATO.
That’s why they want to destabilize Western unity. Get America out of NATO. Capture right wing political parties and help them win control. This is how they expand their borders and increase their global influence without suiciding themselves. They know what they are doing.
He doesn't want war with NATO because it would be the end of the line for him, and he knows it. In a war with NATO, with Russia fighting on several fronts, they would have to start mass conscripting every man in sight, and funerals would start happening in Moscow and other big cities instead of in villages in the far-flung territories. That would be the beginning of the end for the putin regime.
He wants to live in his 1B mansion, ride 700M his yacht and hang out with his "wives". He doesn't want war with NATO and nuclear warheads landing on his head. So the West is free to provide any weapons they want, all the "escalation" rhetoric is just a KGB deception operation to cut off weapons supply to Ukraine.
This seems so dangerous a parallel with Hitler’s repeated boundary-pushing attempts against the European nations. Wars too small to justify an upending of the balance of powers, including annexations and and claims of ethnic-based absorption of “German” populaces.
It worries me so much that we’re underestimating when he will stop.
I honestly think this is a change of heart for him. In the beginning of the war when most of the world expected it to be over in less than a week, I’m sure he would have considered an attack on the Baltics. Now, it’s suicide.
So, what does he do if Trump isn't elected in the fall, and the Democrats take both the House and the Senate? If the US decides to give Ukraine ALL the weapons, I don't know if he'll exactly take a double blow like that lying down. That being said, he's also a savvy enough politician to know that saying that out loud (elect Trump or else!) is a surefire way to ensure Trump DOESN'T get elected. Most Americans hate being told what to do with threats, especially by another country. The only way any of this works for Putin, is if he continues to lean on social media and drive propaganda via his massive bot networks, while trying to ensure that US counterintelligence doesn't address that threat with the gravity that it deserves.
Threatening the US publicly with everything but a military attack, and the American conservatives are still cozying up to putin and the orangeman. That's wild. A decade ago I figured every MURICAN was patriotic as fuck but now the world finds out half of them are faking it.
Attrition is hitting Russia's army hard from just the battlefront in Ukraine alone (albeit a Ukraine aided by NATO countries). An all-out war with NATO would a turkey shoot.
Once we had air superiority - which we would quickly - it would all be over.
It's not clear how long it would take to gain air superiority unfortunately... I can't find it now, but back in 2022 a senior US Air Force commander was asked hypothetically how the US would have handled invading Ukraine (as a comparison against what the Russians did), and he said something along the lines of "over four weeks of SEAD missions before any non-SF troops crossed the border"...
>"over four weeks of SEAD missions before any non-SF troops crossed the border" So....Gulf War?
But with F-35s instead of F-117s.
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F-22s alone would just allow the destruction of the Russian Air Force by our combat aircraft. They would not stand a shot against the US. It is very hard to accurately portray how much better the USAF is against Russia. And they know this.
Which is exactly what the F-22 was designed for, albeit Soviets instead of Russians.
There's two parts of what makes the 22 so incredible: 1) What it was made to do and actually was successful 2) The insane amount of progress past every plane in the world that it surpassed. So the F-22 is a stealth fighter, on steroids. In terms of russia, it is VERY hard to be seen, VERY fast, and more imporantly good at doing it's job while being VERY fast. It can see you and shoot you before you see them because of it's incredible radar and EW (Electronic Warfare). It can jam ground anti-aircraft with it's EW. It can collect critical infromation on aircraft in the area, what they're doing, and then people can decide 1) Where should be most worries about and avoid? 2) Who should we kill first, and who can we safely wait to kill? It can also do ground support but probably wouldn't be used for this in this conflict unless you consider being able to zero in on a SAM launch and destroy it while getting away part of ground support. It can do more than this but that is classified even if it's open on the internet. It, however was super expensive and at least as we know publicly, no more are being made at all. The F-35 is supposed to take over most of it's roles but nothing will beat the F-22 for a long time. It's one of those rare aircraft that is just decades ahead of their time. Edit: Should have said TLDR: It will kill anything in the sky, and maybe on the ground without being hit, and maybe not even seen, and get back and also have critical intelligence information. That is the perfect aircraft.
It’s pretty wild how little people understand about how insane NATOs air superiority advantage is. There are a like a dozen individual member nations with larger fifth generation fighters fleets than Russia, and even if China entered the fray it is a STAGGERING imbalance.
In short, the first sign for Russian pilots that F-22s are operating in the area during a direct conflict will be the master caution alarm signaling an incoming missile tracking on them. And once that alarm sounds, they'll have a few seconds to decide whether to attempt to evade it or just eject. I once saw a comparison of Russian fighter costs to the F-22 and immediately knew it wasn't a fair comparison. The fair comparison is the cost of a Russian fighter against the cost of an AIM-120 AMRAAM missile.
Exactly. The higher up the tech goes, the more the gap increases. They do have good AA, but it’s not enough. Or even close. It would be…..bad for Russia.
There was a video of an S-400 battery failing to intercept what appeared to be a single missile a couple days ago... yeah I think you might be right.
I killed many MIGs in F-22 Interceptor for Sega Genesis.
The F-22 is such a superior fighter that it’s entirely plausible that they would never be seen by any Russian jet they target.
A really interesting statistic is that of the top 5 largest air forces in the world, 4 of them are US military branches (USAF, USN, Russia, USAA, and USMC). The Coast Guard alone has half as much aircraft as the entire German airforce.
And most of all those are logistics planes. It’s absolutely insane how much more logistics planes and ships it has over everyone else by so far.
Is Rapid Dragon operational?
Given that the weapons don't require any sort of interface with the aircraft dropping them, and utilizes an already existing missile, the AGM-158 JASSM, capable of independent telemetry, I'd say it wouldn't be out of the question to see it pressed into service.
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I’ve seen Alex Hollings explain it on YT and the concept is interesting. Yes, it seems very modular. I’m just wondering what the command and control hurdles are…stuff like targeting updates, etc. I’m sure those platforms (C-130, C-17, C-5) need to have some additional tech added to handle that…but maybe it’s part of the cargo load out…specialists with a fancy briefcase to speak to the racks of munitions in flight.
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Lmao imagine using a C-5 for that mission. The absolute disrespect. “Yeah we’re going to send our biggest, most lumber-y transport aircraft to fire a metric ton of cruise missile at you. And guess what? There’s absolutely nothing you can do about it”
I can't find anything saying that it's in service yet. the concept though is really quite simple so I'd be shocked if they couldn't rush it into service if needed
You won't know either way
Speaking of the F-117, the public had absolutely no idea it even existed until it was in service for *7 full years.*
That's generally the nature of the military. Public seems to be behind about 10 years.
And it’s still being used
Oh man I have not heard about this Rapid Dragon business and this is kind of awesome, haha.
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WE WILL SIMPLY DROP BOMBS FROM *EVERYTHING!*
Rapid Dragon - Bringing more mass to the fight! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2d-lQ5dUh8c
Worked out pretty well
A SEAD mission stands for Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses. It's a military operation aimed at neutralizing an enemy's air defense systems like surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and anti-aircraft artillery (AAA). This allows friendly aircraft to operate freely in the airspace without being shot down. SEAD missions can be carried out through destroying enemy radar and missile sites or by deploying electronic warfare techniques to disrupt their operations. These missions are vital for achieving air superiority in a conflict.
The US has over 70 active Arleigh Burke destroyers, each with somewhere around 90 tomahawk missiles. Thousands of missiles ready to launch, obviously they aren't all in range of Russia, but hundreds are. Then of course there are air-launched missiles. All that to say, Russia could be overwhelmed pretty quickly from an air defense perspective.
I'm going to make a wild guess that if it comes to this, then China will make a move for Taiwan at the same time. This will split the US to two war fronts. Edit: Yes I already knew the US can fight on 2 fronts. I'm just saying China will wait for a time as such to take their move.
My guess is that before doing anything, the US would have situated probably 4 aircraft carriers in the pacific as deterrent. I think with Russia, unlike say Iraq, regime change could end the entire conflict. I would expect the US would step back basically as soon as air defense and weapons manufacturing had been taken out. From there would be a primary goal of getting rid of Putin that would become a NATO led mission.
The US would never invade Russia proper, because that would cross a clear nuclear threshold and would permit Putin to use nuclear weapons "defensively," which he almost certainly would. So regime change might be the goal, but the method would be to cripple Russia's military and defense industrial base from afar, without triggering a nuclear response, so that the Russian government can no longer project power abroad or suppress dissent at home. And then they would let nature take its course, allowing the Russian people to figure out what to do with Putin, rather than anything involving boots on the ground and the potential for a nuclear quagmire. Even a short period of US/NATO air strikes would substantially improve the Ukrainians' ability to maintain their own defense, thus buying time for Ukraine while still permitting a quick pivot away from Russia to the pacific if the Chinese tried to take Taiwan.
Which standing US doctrine requires readiness for as standard protocol. "War with 2 separate peer nations and 1 minor conflict simultaneously." <- Ever wondered why US military spending is out of control, this is why.
People who are critical of military spending are often naive to the fact we still have opposition across the world who would heavily prefer to see the US significantly destabilized.
Well that and we are essentially the protector of nearly every blue water based trade route in the world. Takes a lot of money.
The US Navy keeping maritime trade routes open and safe is one of the fundamental guarantors of global stability. We really do underwrite the defense of a lot of nations with all that money.
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You're assuming NATO is only the US, when the reality is NATO can beat Russia even without the US.
Poland could beat Russia with one hand tied behind their back.
> It's a military operation aimed at neutralizing an enemy's air defense systems like surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and anti-aircraft artillery (AAA). Sort of. DEAD would be truly neutralizing them. SEAD is suppression, typically in support of other concurrent missions.
That makes sense yeah, same thing was done during the preliminary strikes on Iraq in 2003
The runways too if I remember. Can’t takeoff or land. That screws them as well.
I would agree that it would take a long time to truly make it safe for enemy soldiers (just like the long air campaign preceeded the invasion of Iraq) but I would think that within 48 hours of conflict beginning, bombing runs by stealth aircraft would have destroyed enough Russian aircraft, radar arrays, and runways that the conclusion would no longer be in doubt.
Yeah, B-2 stealth bombers are based in Missouri, not forward deployed in Europe. That's probably the most distant asset that would be used in initial strikes. So it would be an annoyingly long flight, but stuff would start exploding the same day POTUS ordered the map cleaned up. Stuff like F-35's are based a lot closer, so they'd have a much shorter flight to get to the action. I wouldn't be surprised if the first strikes were in the air within a few hours of getting an order. Or perhaps minutes if there was advance warning that a presidential order was imminent. Russian air defense systems would probably not be good at dealing with a dozen stealth bombers each with dozens of long range weapons dismantling the air defense. There might be a few weeks of cleanup to track down the last few systems that had been turned off during the first day or two. But the inactive systems don't pose a huge threat in the mean time until somebody turns them back on.
I mean, look at the recent strikes in Iraq and Syria. The US used B-1s based in Texas. Presumably as much as a show of power and ability to project force as anything else.
If Putin is okay with waging "asymmetrical activity" against the US, that tells me Putin is fine with the US waging asymmetrical activity against Russia. Period. That's something for the history books.
I dunno, that's pretty clear if you ask me. Point is it's a question of weeks, not months or years, with minimal NATO losses. Not to Red Alert this or anything but it's pretty clear Russia can't even stop pretty basic cruise missiles, let alone F35's. You could park HIMARS far enough back from the front that it's out of artillery range and Russia couldn't get anything to within 80km of the front.
While I mostly agree, do not underestimate the S300/400’s. They are killers… yes, they have been getting plugged by Ukraine from time to time but they are still one of the most feared AA batteries out there. Know your enemy…
While I agree that they do significant damage in Ukraine *at the moment*, let's not forget those AA batteries are used against old soviet era planes. Factor in that these planes don't have any meaningful and modern EW capability and the S300/400 are probably tested during development against those specific planes employed by former soviet states and it makes sense that they are a force to be reckoned with in the current battlefield. However, there's a good chances that western Gen4 fighters like the F16 with modern EW capabilities, do significantly better. Let alone if Gen5 fighters like the F35 and F22 hit the battlefield. While not impossible, I seriously doubt the S300, or even the S400 could make a significant dent in NATO's stealth fighter fleet. And once those stealth fighters have taken out the better part of Russia's AA capabilities, it's game over.
>And once those stealth fighters have taken out the better part of Russia's AA capabilities, it's game over. Putin has taken care of that himself already. He's throwing everything the Russian military has at Ukraine, and they've already lost a significant number of those AA systems. A full on war with NATO would see them going in with already significantly depleted air defense resources, so they would get steamrolled very quickly.
Except that one presidential candidate will withdraw support to Ukraine and de facto surrender it to Poutine
Cool, but the US alone cannot force Ukraines surrender. Hell, with European supplies alone, Ukraine likely will be able to drag this war out for (very bloody) years.
Hopefully NATO will provide full support .
We would lose some jets, but each time they fire one that site will get obliterated. They would HAVE to take out all our spy satellites as a first strike. Which in turn would give us a fair warning that action was about to happen. They are in a bad spot to attack a nato country IMHO.
dont forget the US has a missile thats goal is to get locked onto and relay that info back to friendly forces or other missiles
Ah yes, the Miniature Air-Launched Decoy aka MALD
>They would HAVE to take out all our spy satellites as a first strike Serious question: Is that even possible?
They have the capability, so do we, how reliable is who knows. S400s are huge we can easily detect thermally from space. So even without using HARM munitions we can find them if they launch.
Oh agreed, we will absolutely lose assets to those unfortunately. The good thing is, we will definitely have overwhelming numbers in the air.
Ukraine has taken out so much more than "from time to time." And taking out those A-50s, plus the A-50 repair site means it's getting much worse. The attrition is hitting Russia hard, they've got huge stockpiles, but they're not unlimited, and they weren't exactly doing a great job with how those stockpiles were cared for - so it's a lot of refurbishment just to get those things out. As a great example, due to sanctions and how much Russia now relies on outside manufacturing, they currently produce about 200 tanks a month, but they're losing well over that per month - so the stockpiles have kept shrinking and older and older tanks get seen on the battlefield. Stuff that was good gear in the 60's is commonly seen these days, with occasional sightings of 50's era tanks. Russia has a lot of stuff, but not enough to keep going like they've been going.
Considering the size of Russia, it will be full of blank spot to navigate anyway
Imagine being the one asshole in the world that has justified the unification and pacts from the largest swaths of land in the northern hemisphere of the entire world. Not only is it enormous, it's also growing (e.g. Findland & Sweden) because you're just that much of a piece of shit that no one can trust you to stay in your lane. The war in Ukraine is Putin's death warrant. The sherriff in town isn't wearing pants and has proven to be ineffective. If he doesn't conquer Ukraine, he's as good as dead, and that day cannot come soon enough.
People say this all the time but I just don’t think it’s true. Putin doesn’t need to “win” the war, all he needs is to show that he gained territory and he will be heralded as a hero. Do not underestimate Moscow’s ability to spin the truth. Putin has a ton of consolidated power and there aren’t any signs of that changing.
This is all just the New Generation Warfare Doctrine (or the Gerasimov Doctrine, if you happen to be called Valery Gerasimov) in action, it always has been the case that Russia has wanted to achieve their military aims by committing the least amount of physical resources to war as possible, and it has been the case for at least a decade that they will do this by causing as much social/political strife in their enemies as possible. Liberal democracy is the least bad system of polity we have in my opinion, but it certainly isn’t perfect, specifically in this case, it’s exploitable, Russia can create divisions that didn’t exist before, and exploit ones that already did through the transmission of information alone. Every time you hear him make a nuclear threat towards a NATO country for example, just think about how people, many of whom have little to no knowledge of geopolitics, would react. Some would be angry, some would be worried and some would pay no attention to it at all. Even just this specific fear as an example is dividing the German public on support for Ukraine at the moment, and all Putin has done to achieve this is simply said something. The same is happening all over western countries, it must be said though. From now on whenever you hear Putin say something about a red line or a military/nuclear response for example, think about exactly who he is speaking to, because most of the time it’s the electorate in respective NATO countries. As long as legitimate scholarly sources such as Chatham House or the ISW (this can also include the US intelligence making press releases) say that asymmetrical warfare is still Putin’s preferred doctrine, he will continue to tailor a lot of his public statements towards dividing the western public over supporting Ukraine, either out of fear, or weird conservative isolationist sentiment in the US’s case. At the end of the day Putin wants to commit the least amount of capitol, both physical, human and political, to the war, and by that logic he can only achieve this by having the west commit slightly less than he is, and he will try to do this by using information to his advantage to divide us over support. A hybrid-autocracy like his has no issue with public divisions over support for the war, given their monopoly on information in Russia, but we do by the very system we are trying to uphold unfortunately, the information space in liberal democracies is anarchic and exploitable, but the more people who know this, the easier it will be to achieve our goals in Ukraine, don’t let the autocrats win. TLDR: this has been Russia’s way of waging war for a decade or so, create/exploit social/political divisions in Liberal Democracies so their support for a Russian enemy wains out of public fear of Russian relation, or general misunderstanding of the situation. Putin will continue to use this as long as the Russian military doesn’t face a total collapse.
You have no idea how much I had to scroll to find a comment with common sense like yours and not just full of insults.
Ah cheers, I got my degree in German and Political science recently and I haven’t been able to find a (grown up) job yet so I try to keep my mind in the zone by furiously typing humongous walls of text about geopolitics on Reddit. Also, let people be angry and throw insults around, it’s better than people saying something along the lines of “oh good, he just wants to take back land in his historical sphere of influence, even the US says he isn’t a threat to NATO”.
Thanks for your post. Adding below Wikipedia about Gerasimov Doctrine for quick reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerasimov_doctrine
And here's a good description of the current Russian strategy and gerasimov doctrine : https://youtu.be/ZUBTyAZg5OA
> "This will range from using energy to try to coerce cooperation and weaken Western unity on Ukraine, to military and security intimidation, malign influence, cyber operations. espionage, and subterfuge." Fox News will still blame raising energy prices on Biden.
I mean, yeah of course. Aren't they the vehicle for a lot of the aforementioned weakening of Western Unity?
Rupert Murdoch and his family just chillin while helping to destroy press and democracy.
The Murdoch family, through spreading misinformation through their media empire (like Fox News) has probably killed 100s of thousands of people. They've helped spread pro-war lies to spread support for unjust wars. They've spread doubt into life saving vaccinations. They've cause a political spectrum of people to want to stop support for Ukraine. Look back over the last 30 years of Fox News... how many people have died because of the misinformation the Murdoch family has allowed to spread? That family should be in court for the damage they have caused to families around the world.
Not even death, but my family is an example of elderly relatives being destroyed by the propaganda. I couldn't even talk to my grandpa in the final years of his life without Fox News garbage coming up. The news groups are doing SO MUCH harm even if it's not measurable.
I feel your pain. Literally the last communication I had with mine before he passed away was a message exchange of him telling me I wasn’t respectful and then me telling him that respect is earned and his behavior toward other family members wasn’t earning him any. He never responded and I honestly believe that was at least part of what robbed him of his will to keep going. Fox News basically poisoned him indirectly.
At the very least, Fox News spread lies and propaganda and slandered people, institutions, and companies all in support of an insurrection/coup attempt. Their broadcast and corporate licenses should be revoked and all of their assets should be seized and auctioned off.
The damage of the destruction of the fourth estate here and elsewhere really can't be overstated. A functioning press is of ultimate importance to a democracy; the ability to vote barely matters anymore if few know what's actually going on.
I agree, and will add that a lot of small towns have lost their newspapers. Also, reporting is reduced everywhere. A 2018 study shows that corruption increases in "news deserts" because no one is investigating shady practices, resulting in banks charging more for loans, causing higher costs for local government. > As local newspapers shrink or disappear, opportunities increase for politicians and public employees to reach into the cookie jar and help themselves. After all, one of journalism’s most important functions is to act as a watchdog on government. As far back as 2009, the internet scholar Clay Shirky said that he expected to see an explosion of “casual endemic corruption” as more and more small papers shut down. > But how to quantify that? According to a new study, the lack of oversight can be measured by a rise in the cost of government in communities that lose their newspapers. Kriston Capps writes in CityLab that researchers at the University of Notre Dame and the University of Illinois at Chicago found that a municipality’s borrowing costs increase in statistically significant ways in “news deserts” — that is, in places where there is no longer a news outlet that reports on important local issues. “A local newspaper provides an ideal monitoring agent,” the researchers write in their as-yet-unpublished paper. “Mismanaged projects can be exposed by investigative reporters employed by the local newspaper. When a newspaper closes, this monitoring mechanism also ceases to exist, leading to a greater risk that the cash flows generated by these projects will be mismanaged.” https://www.wgbh.org/news/commentary/2018-06-06/a-new-study-measures-the-cost-of-corruption-when-the-local-newspaper-dies
They could have dumped 10% of their wealth at a food bank and then fucked off to a private island forever, and made the world a much better place overnight than doing all this fresh hell they've unleashed.
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True, although weakened western unity can be repaired quickly if someone could put Mikey-boy in a safe place away from sharp tools.
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Fox news will keep blaming everything on Biden even 5 years after Biden is dead. They're still blaming Obama for stuff, and he hasn't been in office for over 7 years.
It’s not only Obama’s fault, but his personal fault. /s
The man had the audacity to wear a tan suit
Don't forget the dijon mustard. That bastard...
And arugula.
One time his wife wore a sleeveless dress!
While fist bumping that other socialist in the White House
The Audacity of Taupe
That been the cycle for way to long. Democrat spends most of their term trying to fix or at least triage things, then Republican benefits from the long term effects and claim credit as loot and destroy (starve the beast), then people realize they want a responsible adult in charge again and the cycle repeats. While fickle pendulum voters just go to whoever is not the one in power currently if things are not going exceptionally well, so to keep cycle going GOP just has to obstruct and wait 4 years each time chipping away a bit more at the structures of the government.
FoxNews will blame Biden when a pigeon shits on a car and claim Biden to be the most pro-pigeon-shit President ever.
Meanwhile, Trump could shit in their mouth in times square and they would lick his taint and ask for more.
And blame Biden for their bad breath
> claim Biden to be the most pro-pigeon-shit President ever Then have a guy on that claims, "birds aren't real".
>Then have a guy on that claims, "birds aren't real". But that would mean they have someone on the air who knows what they are talking about, which doesn't really track for Faux News.
Fake bird lawyer here, it checks
It’s easier to blame Biden then explain to its audience how market participants like OPEC and global supply/demand impact prices.
Fox News IS the malign influence and subterfuge
Putin has absolutely no issue causing misery on a global scale. It's his own head he's worried about. So yeah, definitely a coward.
He's destabilizing everything.
The SVR has significantly ramped up cyber attacks on the US in the last 6 months. Russia wants to sow as much chaos and do as much damage to NATO countries as it can using anything but it's military. It's well past time we just put up a new Iron Curtain and just cut Russia off from the economy, culture, and resources of the west.
Hes just waiting for his buddy back in office next year
Russian to another. "We're at war with NATO." Other: "So how's that going?" "Not great, we've lost 400,000 men." "How many has NATO lost?" "None- they haven't arrived yet."
I’m so tired of this fuck
Every fucking time I look at the news I see his wrinkly diseased face
And if it’s not him it’s the Orange Hell Clown. 2020s suck.
Should get American to vote, unfortunately it will affect all of us living outside america
I watched his interview today and the man is really a psychopath. I have trouble sleeping if I need to present remotely on a conference call the next day, but this guy is out her with billions of people calling for his head and looks cool as a cucumber.
Can't see this fucking ugly face anymore. He looks like Freddy Krueger in his 80s.
I'm surprised one crazy guy has solved this problem for the world already. Not that the next guy would be much better, but I can't imagine taking out one 71 year old dude can be all that hard to do if you were really committed.
The agressoer never wants war, he would very much like you to just surrender…
Just like all bullies.
Putin and his shitty army couldn’t handle an attack from NATO, it would be over in less than 3 days.
Fuck Prigozhin alone probably could have taken Moscow in 24 hours if he didn't turn around.
Yep....and he should have. The alternative? Falling out of the sky from 30,000 feet.
No doubt his entire family were threatened, leading to his surrender.
It wasn't his family that were threatened, the internal security services targeted the families of his officers. They were all basically told to stop or their families would pay the price.
That's quite impressive. Thanks. Not sure what they expected. They obviously had to get out of Ukraine because they were getting fucked up, but to think they could get away with marching on Moscow is crazy.
\* and shooting down invaluable command aircraft That made me believe it wasnt a staged coup, would totally not be needed for a believable staging
All the more reason to keep going. The only way to stay safe is to dislodge Putin once and for all.
Agree. The play there was for Prighozen to say: “You touch a hair on any of our families’ heads… and we will do 10X worse to your families. You want to get depraved we are 10X more depraved I promise you. This is your warning. If you leave your office peacefully, however, we will allow you and your families to seek asylum. You have my word, you and your families will not be tortured, mistreated, or killed.” And keep right on marching. Heck, you go double time after that. Prighozen and Wagner had Putin dead to rights… Moscow and the Kremlin were fucked… and then they just… stopped.
>Prighozen and Wagner had Putin dead to rights… Moscow and the Kremlin were fucked… and then they just… stopped. There would have been a very bloody war in and around Moscow. The place is heavily fortified because the Moscovian elites have never trusted any other Russian.
Probably should have considered that
Yeah, I’m really shocked that he didn’t get his family to safety before starting that fiasco
Maybe he thought he did
Oh that would explain it all
It wasn’t just his family but all the officers with him. We may never really know hy he stopped short.
He knew....There were many people walking off of penthouse patios.
This is true, and easily forgotten...in my case, as I have always maintained that the people jumping off the decks of penthouses in Russia, are in fact committing suicide, because they are being told, "If you do not do as we wish, your family or someone you love dearly will die". Putin really is the quintessential low life.
He probably had them killed just to tie loose ends
There's many different reasons including acquiring business interests/forced selling. In Russia in the early and mid 90s the move was on to privatize state run business, industry and government assets. A number of criminal organizations sprung up, with many of them well educated, politically connected and ruthless. There was much blood shed in Russia by Russians trying gain a foothold in/or get control of a various industries in Russia. It was the wild west for a few years and no doubt Poutine was part of it. I read an article years ago about it and they figures there was close to 200 people had died, been murdered in the fight for control of Russia aluminum industry. Some of these were innocents such as people working within government, in the industry as regulators or involved in the privatization process. We all know no one can say anything really bad about Poutine or they pay the ultimate price. Navalny dying was no common heal crisis.
I forgot about that guy. He really…vanished.
NATO should've airdropped those guys rations and vodka
Unlikely; while his advance was rapid and relatively unopposed (relatively - they did still shoot down some helicopters and the like), Putin would have reserved reliable and well-equipped formations to defend himself and Moscow because he is, fundamentally, a coward.
Didn't Putin flee Moscow?
I would stipulate that if nukes weren’t in the conversation NATO could march to Moscow and completely overthrow Putin’s government in 2-3 months max if it really wanted to. NATO has more troops, better training, better coordination strategy, better air and water support, better weapons, and better morale. It would be a bloodbath.
> completely overthrow Putin’s government in 2-3 months max It'll probably be a 3 day special military operation and then 57 days of trying to figure out who's in-charge of fixing what
It’s kind of a silly conversation. NATO is 32 counties constituting like a billion population. Yeah they could take one
At this point we should let the Finns or the Poles solo it.
They need the xp
The real 3-day operation.
Half his army would probably abandon positions.
A few posts down there is an article with the Polish president saying we are living in pre war times in Europe, making it sound like war with Russia is inevitable. Who to believe?
Both. Putin did actually intend on starting WW3, but he was banking on China making a move on Taiwan to stretch the west thin. For one reason or another China backed out (hopefully because they saw what a disaster that would be) and left him to deal with it alone. He doesn't want an open conflict because he knows he can't win. Nukes won't be used because that's pretty much the end of Europe at least, with Russia included. On the other hand he can't stop, because that would be the end of his regime. Authoritarians must show power and control at all times, otherwise they will disappear quite violently and another will take their place. That's also why they keep parroting domestically that an end to his life or order is an end to Russia itself. You might think that's exaggerated, but as he and his inner circle is concerned it's true. It's expand and keep the people busy or die (at least this iteration of government). So the only thing left to do is continue a cold war, or an informational war, where they try subvert our democratic systems, meddle in elections, steer public opinion so that their allies (like Trump) get in office and help him out. The Polish on the other hand know exactly what's gonna happen, because it's happened before. They know there is no world where they (and cut Europe in half, across Germany and Hungary and choose the right side) are allowed to simply exist and coexist with Russia. They know that this is an imperial movement that will only stop with violence, because talking to them is pointless, just like talking to Hitler was pointless. So they are preparing for war, because the alternative is to trust the west and the US specifically that they won't give up on them when (not if) Russia decides to expand again as they've been doing since the 90s. Edit: Like clockwork, I triggered the nest of troll farms with their post truth lies and alternate reality. You will not win.
I will always point to Putin’s objection to Poland gaining Patriot systems 15 years ago as the true indicator of Putin’s intentions. This was a purely defensive weapons system, located on NATO territory. Which drew to the uncomfortable conclusion that Putin felt waging offensive action against existing NATO territory was on the table for him. That more than anything else should have raised the fucking alarm bells amongst western leaders.
>For one reason or another China backed out (hopefully because they saw what a disaster that would be) and left him to deal with it alone. Yup, he doesn't understand naval power, and his navy didn't explain that they needed more than 6 months flightops training on a converted, former bankrupt casino to take Taiwan, and he was furious to find that out. It's why PLAN spending is off the fucking charts right now, he hoped to line up right after he finished getting HK wrapped up, and then he hoped putin would win and paralyze the west with fear after that and Afghanistan so they would basically give him Taiwan (or agree not to defend/supply it going forward, basically respect a blockade). I thank God every day that Xi is such an idiot, I can't imagine how terrifying China could be if they weren't lead by someone who loves to stick their dick in a meat grinder as often as possible. We could vote Trump out, the Chinese are just fucked.
Part of me wonders if China did it on purpose and let Russia get wreckt so they can have unlimited access to natural resources. Who needs Taiwan when you can subjugate russia from all directions (resources, market domination, military alliance dependency, etc). If they did steer things this way, Xi might be smarter than you think and it would be an incredibly impressive diplomatic op. At this point they are the only ones actually winning in this conflict (and India of course), but China has a lot more influence and power.
Russia is going to be completely economically dependent on China after the war. Regardless of who wins on the ground, the strategic victor will be Beijing.
They already are dependent on China. From vehicles to financial departments, to goods and whatnot. They are already so deep it would take decades to get out of it and find alternatives or develop their own. That's why I wonder if China did it on purpose. It's a god damn economic and strategic miracle for them. 'Friendship without limits' my a\*\*, China is slowly turning them into NK 2.0 and Putin's gang seem more than eager to take up that role.
I think you're taking the causality backwards. He attacked Ukraine largely because China was getting strong and he wanted to show he wasn't the junior partner, see mussolini attacking Ethiopia, which worked out slightly worse for Italy. The US could have made that deal: we split Russia, they get Siberia, we get the west half, China would have spent 50 years digesting that mess, and not bothered anyone. 15 years ago my biggest fear was Russia and China finally figuring out how powerful their resources, manpower and tech would be when combined. I feel like an idiot, because at the end of the day it's still Russia, which is one of the worst allies you can burden anyone with, so let them combine, the poor Chinese saps.
>Part of me wonders if China did it on purpose and let Russia get wreckt so they can have unlimited access to natural resources. I think you're right on the money here. They're eyeing the resources in the eastern part of Russia. It would *benefit* them to have Russia weakened, because they could swoop in to the land and start pillaging it.
China did seize Russian land by redrawing the border after Ukraine invasion. Putin did not respond to the new border. It is now Chinese land. Russia is so evil but China is also so comically evil they are in land dispute with every single neighboring country. Like wtf who just opens fronts in every direction? Imagine if US just antagonized Mexico and Canada non stop. Oh wait Trump did that. It's almost as if conservatives in love with rigid hierarchies tend to put morons in charge.
Any sources on the claim that Putin intended to start WW3 with Chinas backing?
WW3 fanfiction
They completely pulled it out of their ass lmao
I only needed to read your first paragraph to understand you have no clue what you are talking about. China lacks the capabilities to invade Taiwan. If China were to stage an invasion of Taiwan the whole world would have known months in advance. A simultaneous invasion of Taiwan and Ukraine wouldn’t stretch the West thin since one would be a naval war and the other would be a land war.
And US military doctrine is based upon being able to fight in multiple theaters at once.
Also, China hasn't invaded Taiwan because they know it'd basically tank the entire global stock market. Taiwan and the US have both stated that the second China invades, they will blow up the advanced chip foundries responsible for the vast majority of high-end consumer electronics; if you recall the shortage during covid for things like cars/phones/laptops/computers/etc, imagine near *zero* supply for the next 4-6 years.
We’re always either “at war” or “living in pre war times”; this on the other hand is an explicit and clear official assessment published by US intelligence services, which were right on the money with their official assessments regarding Russia’s moves as far back as just before the beginning of the war
Well lets hope they are right, against what seems like every other western leader and politician, who are saying war seems to be on the horizon.
We ARE at war with Russia, for all intents & purposes - just not one with conventional weapons (yet). They are aggressively engaged in active measures against the US & NATO in the form of disinformation to influence elections (e.g. Hillary's emails) and to sow discord within our countries. If you can't win by attacking a country from the outside, then you do it from within.
They put bounties on our soldiers in Afghanistan. We owe them for that.
Si vis pacem, para bellum
How about just spend your time trying to improve the country you're head of instead of fucking around with other countries?
Things **could** be nice. That’s the disturbing part
"Asymetcic activity" will include (yet again) internet troll farms to spread disinformation and exploit social/political rifts (like the American liberal/ conservative divide in an election year as well as race, gender/sexuality, 2A, social programs ect.) Remember that when you see especially divisive posts on social media (even the ones from the side you agree with.....they actively play both sides) Anger, conflict and confusion are their goals. It's time we started being smarter. Don't give them the oxygen they need to fuel the fire.
"Asymmetric activity" is like how he made Donald Trump president. In other words, he can do a LOT Of damage that way and turn nations against each other.
Exporting Kremlin disinfo into western democracies over the last 20+ years in order to weaken and undermine them from within is about Putin's only real success during his reign. Plus brutalising and fascisting his own population.
Why would Putin want war with NATO? I know it's cliche but he can't even handle a slightly NATO backed underdog.
Then we should counter his asymmetric activity and fuck up what’s left of his rotting dungheap of a country.
A counter-operation is already underway. Exposure of Russia’s election interference leading to the election of a U.S. President with authoritarian tendencies spawned counter-messaging aimed at promoting democracy and denouncing dictatorship. Sure, intelligence is crucial to understanding the challenges our foes pose. But a society free to express interest, petition its government, and voice various opinions benefits from the law of large numbers when leveraging the wisdom of crowds via democratic means. So, we have and continue to see this message promoted by a free press that enjoys its freedom under the First Amendment, which also protects the free speech that informs the press.
Obviously but Dickhead Johnson is standing in the way of that.
The nickname is superfluous.
Erm the elephant in the room? WTF IS GOING ON WITH HIS BLOATY ASS FACE?
I was thinking the same thing seeing him speak on TV today. It looks almost comical
> WTF IS GOING ON WITH HIS BLOATY ASS FACE Huge doses of steroids to treat a chronic illness.
They've been asymmetrically active since at least 2014. Gonna be a dark day for the world if they manage to get the Mango Orangutan elected again.
As an Indonesian, I'm gravely offended. Orangutans are peaceful creatures. They rarely show aggressive behavior towards each other and humans.
Hey hey, orangutans are definitely smarter
Anyone with a brain knows that Russia easily loses a conventional confrontation with NATO. In a nuclear war, *everyone loses* but Russia especially loses. There’s no scenario where Russia comes out the other side better after battling NATO. That’s why they want to destabilize Western unity. Get America out of NATO. Capture right wing political parties and help them win control. This is how they expand their borders and increase their global influence without suiciding themselves. They know what they are doing.
Nasty little coward
>Nasty little *rat-faced* coward
He doesn't want war with NATO because it would be the end of the line for him, and he knows it. In a war with NATO, with Russia fighting on several fronts, they would have to start mass conscripting every man in sight, and funerals would start happening in Moscow and other big cities instead of in villages in the far-flung territories. That would be the beginning of the end for the putin regime.
He wants to live in his 1B mansion, ride 700M his yacht and hang out with his "wives". He doesn't want war with NATO and nuclear warheads landing on his head. So the West is free to provide any weapons they want, all the "escalation" rhetoric is just a KGB deception operation to cut off weapons supply to Ukraine.
Is that a recent photo? Dude looks like shiiiiit!
This seems so dangerous a parallel with Hitler’s repeated boundary-pushing attempts against the European nations. Wars too small to justify an upending of the balance of powers, including annexations and and claims of ethnic-based absorption of “German” populaces. It worries me so much that we’re underestimating when he will stop.
I honestly think this is a change of heart for him. In the beginning of the war when most of the world expected it to be over in less than a week, I’m sure he would have considered an attack on the Baltics. Now, it’s suicide.
Asymmetric activity = backing Trump.
lol what the fuck does that even mean
So, what does he do if Trump isn't elected in the fall, and the Democrats take both the House and the Senate? If the US decides to give Ukraine ALL the weapons, I don't know if he'll exactly take a double blow like that lying down. That being said, he's also a savvy enough politician to know that saying that out loud (elect Trump or else!) is a surefire way to ensure Trump DOESN'T get elected. Most Americans hate being told what to do with threats, especially by another country. The only way any of this works for Putin, is if he continues to lean on social media and drive propaganda via his massive bot networks, while trying to ensure that US counterintelligence doesn't address that threat with the gravity that it deserves.
Threatening the US publicly with everything but a military attack, and the American conservatives are still cozying up to putin and the orangeman. That's wild. A decade ago I figured every MURICAN was patriotic as fuck but now the world finds out half of them are faking it.
How about he fucks off with his asymmetric activity too
Just rub your dicks together and pack it up, move out of Ukraine.