> Sky Middle East correspondent Alistair Bunkall says he has been told the deal has not been made "with the cooperation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu".
That seems interesting
As soon as the war ends, Netanyahu is done politically and will likely face corruption charges when he leaves office. He wants this war to go on as long as possible.
Reddit always thinks Bibi is about to get booted out and yet years and years of this being predicted and he's still around. We'll see, war or not I don't think he's going away like you predict.
The reason he stayed in power for so long was not because he is well liked, but because of how the voting system works in Israel. The coalition he has is held up by a thread with idiots like Smotrich and Ben Gvir who don’t have a lot of voters.
The opposition had a huge problem of not being able to build a cohesive government and ended up failing, mostly because of Netanyahu managed to split the country.
Anyway, at the last elections, many people didnt know who to vote for anymore, the opposition’s government just fell down and it felt like its either Netanyahu or another election season, so lots of people didnt vote anymore.
I can 100% guarantee you that the next elections will look different. Ever since trying to change the judicial system, it was clear that the vast majority of his followers started to crack and go out against him, and then 7/10 in my opinion was the final nail in the coffin for him. He played every card he has in his hands. Of course he has one more card - becoming a dictator, but I don’t think he can achieve that when all other branches of the government and the army are wary of him
Bibi has to answer for laughable border security resulting in the death of over 1,000 Israeli citizens on Oct 7th. Bibi also has to handle accusations he ignored advanced American warnings of the attack and tolerating Hamas because he thought the PLO on the West Bank was more dangerous.
This makes me thing I was thinking even better. When I saw that headline I was really curious why this was being said by Biden and not by someone from Israel. It felt a lot like an outsider deciding that the war is over while the people actually in the war not being aware of that decision. Now your comment makes that even crazier.
Then again if this just means that other people in power in Israel have agreed to this deal but just Netanyahu not being part of that but the terms of the deal can still be kept even without him, that's good enough for me. Just like when it comes to America, it's not the American people that we don't like, it's your government and the people in power. So, nothing against Israeli citizens (apart from settlers, screw them.), but screw the Israeli government, specifically Netanyahu.
That's weird, from the news here in Israel everyone says it was a unanimous vote of the war cabinet, meaning he did approve the deal.
What was made without informing our government was Biden making the deal public. To my understanding it was supposed to stay under the table until agreed upon by both sides
Some more details from [the BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cw8860gn1nwo):
>Speaking at the White House on Friday, Mr Biden said that the first phase of the proposed plan would include a "full and complete ceasefire", the withdrawal of IDF forces from populated areas and the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners.
>
>"This is truly a decisive moment," he said. "Hamas says it wants a ceasefire. This deal is an opportunity to prove whether they really mean it."
>
>The ceasefire, he added, would allow more humanitarian aid to reach the beleaguered territory, with "600 trucks carrying aid into Gaza every single day."
>
>The second phase would see all remaining living hostages returned, including male soldiers. The ceasefire would then become "the cessation of hostilities, permanently."
>
>In his speech, Mr Biden acknowledged that negotiations between phase one and phase two would be difficult.
>
>The third phase would see the final remains of any deceased Israeli hostages returned, as well as a "major reconstruction plan" with US and international assistance to rebuild homes, schools and hospitals.
... Doing that in Western Europe after WWII is exactly how the U.S. became the global superpower that led the West through the Cold War. You might want to read about the Marshall Plan, the political payback, the American ownership of foreign infrastructure, the preferential trade agreements, and everything else that came out of using U.S. tax dollars to rebuild far larger regions that had been far more thoroughly destroyed. Much of the American economy, even today, is built on the preferential trade that comes from security guarantees the U.S. can logistically support because of the alliances that came out of those tax dollars.
It works pretty well. The U.S. protects a bunch of governments, including some brutal and nasty ones, from aggressive neighbors and often-much-nastier rebels. In exchange, it gets so many exceptions to protectionist policies that most Americans don't know how difficult international business (outside of trading blocs like the E.U.) is for everyone else. The huge cash inflow from stuff like not paying 80% taxes for resource extraction or 30% "licensing fees" (bribes) wherever they want to sell stuff then supports a lot of jobs domestically.
EDIT: The 80% taxes I was thinking of were Saudi taxes on foreign corporations extracting oil there. The 30% is of operating costs (not sales), which, until recently at least, was where the Canadian justice system drew the line between normal costs of doing business and being an accomplice to bribery.
Yeah but the US has to do a shit load of expensive stuff in every region of the world every single day in order to remain the #1 power in the world.
What’s that you say, you don’t care about the US being the #1 power in the world? It’s easy to say something like that when the only life you have ever known is a life lived inside that #1 world power.
I get frustrated too but the superpower age has been fairly stable with significant increases of life expectancy and quality of life in developing nations around the world and I think this is a price we pay. It’s not fair but the world is so messy
Standard American practice since WWII. We build up our own middle and working class by 1) building arms to ship to use in foreign wars and 2) exporting necessities and luxuries to places that can't produce the goods themselves, due to the bombing of their infrastructure.
It's a guaranteed decade long (at a minimum) job security program in all 50 states.
How many Americans are actually making a living by us supplying bombs to other countries? Not that it means anything but I've lived in 5 different states and I have yet to meet some blue collar guy who works at a bomb factory and has a decent house and a family and all that. How much of that bomb money goes into the pockets of people who make less than $150k/year?
They follow the same patterns as all the other businesses. Raython (and most defense contractors) have the majority of their business and engineering offices in the mid Atlantic, from NJ, PA, VA, MD, due to the proximity to DC and factories (aka the bomb building guys) in Texas, Louisiana, and Alabama, and tech centers in Cali, NC, and PA, and TX.
BAE Systems has its offices in PA as well as in VA, several shipyards in FL and CA, and others in MN, TN, and AZ.
It's all public data, you can look it up on their sites
Come to the mid Atlantic and every fifth engineer you meet works for a defense contractor.
My favorite part is when they dismantle the billions in infrastructure we build for them, and use it make shitty homemade rockets that will then be blown up by rockets we supply to the other side.
> but we can't have universal healthcare or do something about home prices or fund programs for stronger workers rights.
Even the neolibs have been on board with all of those recently. You can thank conservatives for no domestic spending on any of those issues, not this administration.
So according to this article this deal was offered without cooperation or agreement from Benjamin Netanyahu government. Forgive me but how can you make a deal without major player being part of it? How is this different to what happened with Egypt two weeks ago?
I was reading the terms of the deal and they suck from Israeli perspective- if they were not involved or agreed to it this would make perfect sense. WTH
But that still would dissolve the government as Gantz is not part of Bibi coalition, just war cabinet? Or am I misunderstanding? Even if Bibi government collapses, until a new one is put in, he gets to call the shots
You need to understand the current hierarchy, there are 4 elements at play here :
1. **The Government** - This is the coalition of parties governing the parliament, it has 64 of 120 parliament members (min req 61), they area the lawmakers and completely irrelevant for this topic unless they quit the government, I'll add an important note that it currently has an additional party of 12 members in the government solely for a 'war unity gov' but if they quit nothing changes, the government only collapses if they go below 61
2. **The Cabinet** - This is the original forum for security and diplomacy matters (or anything very important), it currently has 6 permanent members from the coalition (4 Likud, 1 Religious Zionism, 1 Jewish Might, basically all the leaders) with an additional 7 members (3 Likud, 3 National Unity, 1 non affiliated minister), 1 observer, 5 permanent VIPs (AG, Chief of National Security+1, Military Secretary for PM+Defense Minister) and to close it all off, these meetings typically take place with a whole host of VIPs such as the Chief of Staff/ISA/Mossad and basically all the liaisons or important and relevant security personnel
Technically speaking this is the 'real' forum, but due to the war, the War Cabinet was established for faster and dedicated decision making
3. **The War Cabinet** - This includes Netanyahu, Gallant (Defense Minister), Gantz (Opposition party leader that joined the gov solely for war purposes, currently Netanyahu's biggest political rival and former Chief of Staff) and a couple observers (one of which is also a former chief of staff), this is where all the real decisions are being made
4. **The Negotiators** - assigned a mandate by the War Cabinet, which as stated received immense flexibility (this means Netanyahu didn't need to agree to 100% of it from the get go)
The term of the deal does suck for Israel, I believe Netanyahu relies on Hamas to fuck it up and ruin negotiations on the 3rd stage, afterwhich Israel may resume fighting but will already have all the hostages, a war with Lebanon might also overshadow all this deal, if we get the female hostages at the very least, Netanyahu will be relieved of A LOT of domestic pressure
From Israel's standpoint, this deals means returning to a worse state than oct 6, because all the 'axis of resistance' (Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and so on) are emboldened and will claim victory (They already do) and showcase that armed resistance is the only way to achieve their goals, Israel basically surrenders to get its hostages back and will return to war at a later date in worse conditions, especially if a 2 state solution is forced upon them
The US just wants it to end, they are hoping Gaza's hostilities ending will stop the Houtis and Hezbollah (and Iraq) from attacking too and they want to tie it all in with a Saudi normalization deal and a 2 state solution, all before elections, they are in for a disappointing reality...
I think Biden held a press conference and announced this because he didn’t want international media twisting the narrative like they did with the last ceasefire debacle.
last time, the international press reported that Hamas had accepted a ceasefire proposal and put the onus on Israel to respond even though Israel hadn’t even seen the proposal and the new terms Hamas agreed to seemed to be dictated by Hamas (we later learned there was Egyptian espionage at play that sabotaged the deal)
This time Biden is making very clear whose court the ball is in.
Smart leadership, the international press can’t be trusted at this point.
And the US and Israel were both completely betrayed by Egypt, who had their own side-negotiations going on and lied to everyone else about what they were showing Hamas.
As an egyptian, its not clear at all where Egypt even stands. They seem to hate Hamas and Israel equally, ignoring what their people are feeling as usual
Thats a good point actually. I always believed they just REALLY didnt want to be a part of this conflict, so they just wanted it to end asap so that sabotage attempt was made. But thinking about it, it makes no sense that they fr thought Israel would just accept the changed deal without realizing it has changed
The only thing I know for sure is that Egypt does NOT want Hamas in Sina, so theyre not letting Palestinians in
>The only thing I know for sure is that Egypt does NOT want Hamas in Sina, so theyre not letting Palestinians in
Considering all the tunnels that were found recently, it is likely there are some Hamas members who have fled to the Sinai.
Yeah unfortunately.. Our government isnt being too public about how it feels, so we dont know if they expected this or if it was a surprise or etc etc, so no clue what are their plans to deal with that
Honestly I think it's one of those you monitor the ones you know about because even if you destroy every one that you find others are going to be dug, and it you keep a few up and watch them you can at least track some of who or what is moved across the border
That is also a common insult I’ve seen growing up. Especially if that Jewish person does something “stereotypical” of being Jewish.
Like being extremely handsome for example.
Tbh. Good point. Im just so used to people Using it as an insult here in arabic that it didnt strike me that the same is done but in English. Its like both are different insults because theyre different languages. Bilingual brain fuck on my part
To be calling someone something they aren’t is usually an insult in English because usually it’s done when that person is doing something “stereotypical” of that group.
Calling someone something they aren't is pretty much an insult everywhere.
Anyway in this case, I'm guessing calling a non-Jew Jew has to do with the stereotype that Jews are stingy with money? I saw that happening only maybe a couple of times in my whole life and those times were within that context.
I wonder if looking the other way at the tunnels was a bribe to keep Hamas out of Egypt. The last thing Egypt needs economically are Islamic radicals bombing tour buses of American and European retirees at historic sites.
Hamas started as a "charity organization" created by the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt.
They basically created more mosques and got control of the ones there and attempted to control the religious narrative in Gaza.
The Muslim Brotherhood was labeled a terrorist organization and kicked out of Egypt.
Egypt doesn't want that shit coming back into their nation.
It's literally a win-win for Egypt. It throws a wrench into the Israel-KSA treaty talks while also reducing the risk of Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood to Egypt.
Part of the reason that Egypt doesn't join in against Israel is because of American aid. After the Camp David accords, Egypt quickly became one of the biggest recipients of US foreign aid. It is understood that if Egypt breaks their neutrality, they lose all that aid, and it won't come back anytime soon.
So what do you do if you're Egypt? Join a war against a country that you've never beaten, and lose a bunch of free money in the process?
Is Israel really getting weaker? People might be upset by this, but fighting in urban warfare situations, utilizing drones, airstrikes, tanks, etc. This is honestly just a proving ground for the IDF to learn and adapt to modern warfare, without having to worry about an enemy air force.
Israel has already defeated Egypt twice decisively. This renewed training for IDF soldiers and pilots is only going to make them an even more formidable fighting force should the arab coalition ever try again.
I think Egypt had a good ~~smuggling~~ trade deal that was going with Gaza, even before Hamas took over. There has been tunnels going into Egypt since the 80's at least, for smuggling arms and goods after Israel took (kept, Egypt refused to accept it back) the territory in 67. Since then there has always been smuggling to and from Egypt. In recent years Egypt has cracked down on the tunnels, claiming to destroy some 1,500(!) of them yet dozens more were left undamaged and just now 20 were discovered within days of Israel taking the Gaza side of the border.
In my opinion, the human trafficking out of Gaza and arms and goods trafficking into Gaza provided a stable and profitable enough business to certain Egyptian individuals that they managed to convince the government to leave the tunnels open.
I'm still not sure what they really stand to gain, though? By no means am I well versed in the Egyptian government, but they don't seem to have a huge military or anything. I don't see them gaining any actual territory out of this. Even if Palestine is left a smoldering ruin, unable to defend itself, Israel will never let Egypt actually claim any ground there. I know there's probably a lot more to ot than that, but still.
The Egyptian military is its own rabbit hole. It operates in a decent portion of the Egyptian economy and has pretty darn good equipment for the region.
Unfortunately it also utilizes unpopular conscription and has a focus on maintaining internal control. That plus dividing its energy into turning profit means it is never really deployed in an effective fashion for external conflict, nor are large parts of it trained adequately for modern combat.
Your analysis on territory seems correct to me. Weakening Hamas could reduce odds of radical influence in their territory though, and a weaker Israel might give them more leverage as a “reasonable”country in the area with international partners.
Palestine goes away and Israel seriously compromises it's long term support from Western nations.
The US may not take the ICC warrants seriously but the Europeans do, even if those warrants will never be actively served. They act as a de facto ban from the EU at the very least.
Egypt wants to see relations between Israel and the west break down.
Egypt has the most powerful military in the Middle East irc. It's the 15th strongest in the world.
[https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=egypt]
I am surprised that Egypt has not attacked the Houthis if anyone was impacted by their attacks it's been the Suez Cannel and Egypt. Not only that but Houthis missiles hit Taba in the Sinai.
Suez canal fees make up around 2.5 percent of Egypt's GDP. Traffic is currently down by 50%. That's a painful cut, but not painful enough for Sisi to risk bringing up a large part of Egypt's population against his rule by siding with Israel.
Things in Egypt are a bit unstable now too. Sisi got his job because he presented himself as a savior from Morsi/Muslim Brotherhood. And his supporters always used the line "At least its not as bad as when Morsi was in charge"
But now it is. Probably much worse with how our economy is. People are really angry at him but theyre too scared to sacrifice their life for a revolution.. But when you see how much egyptians fight each other regarding boycotting alone..
Yeah openly supporting Israel in such a way could be the flare that brings Sisi and his regime down.
As much as I want that man and his military rule to go, I dont think its a good idea at all for another revolution to come so suddenly
1.25% of your GDP gone seems really huge tbh. That's like if a quarter of US construction work just disappeared. Why couldn't Egypt just paint it as defending the canal alongside the US and others who struck back at the Houthis rather than engaging with the Houthis' stated goals?
Worth pointing out that getting in to a conflict with the Houthis as a neighboring regional power is up there with "land war in afganistan" levels of nope.
I don't even think it was a good idea for the US to take offensive operations against them, but the US is already loosely affiliated with Saudi side of the ongoing civil war in Yemen.
It’s a tough position for Egypt. They don’t want Palestinian refugees flooding in, they don’t want Muslim Brotherhood Islamists toppling the current regime, they wouldn’t take Gaza if it were free, and the last Egyptian head of state who signed a peace accord with Israel got riddled with bullets.
Tbh El-Saddatt's peace deal is considered to be a great move here and he is respected as a wise man and a lover of peace.
But considering people are already calling Sisi, our current president, a Jew traitor.. Yeah it wont end well for him if he signs a deal with Israel.
Anwar Sadat did indeed prove he was a righteous and wise man who was a lover of peace. Unfortunately it did not rub off on his people.
Sisi apparently knows his people much better than Sadat.
Last time they got free elections they elected a Muslim Brotherhood associated party, supposedly the muslim brotherhood are now more "pacifists" than before, but considering that they started making extremist militia groups the second they got into power in Egypt, i will go ahead and doubt that.
The Muslim Brotherhood quickly lost the support of the Egyptian public after winning the elections.
https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/05/Egypt-Report-03.png
Oh absolutely not. There are some that still do, but whether theyre majority or minority.. Theyre staying quiet.
The Muslim Brotherhood had their chance to rule egypt and failed miserably with Morsi back in 2013~, I cant remember the exact date. Since then, muslim Brotherhood Name has had a huge taboo on it and youd definitely get arrested if you show any support to them publicly enough.
Heck, I remember they changed a famous poem taught in school because it contained the word "اخواني" which means "my friends" but also is the word used to refer to a member of the muslim Brotherhood. They are that hated here.
That's what I thought, I was confused about how Egypt was ignoring what their people were feeling as Hamas is Muslim brotherhood
Article 2 of Hamas' Charter defines Hamas as one of the branches of the Muslim Brotherhood in Palestine
People in Egypt are a bit ignorant. Education isnt the best here which is a huge reason why studying overseas is very popular and a dream here. Heck, even I want to go and study at MIT for my Master's.
And even tho I love to hear both sides regarding this conflict.. I didnt even know Hamas was a branch of the muslim brotherhood so I really doubt a random egyptian in his 40-50s is going to know that.. So Id say its mostly due to ignorance that they support Hamas
As an outsider, it seems to me that Egypt stands for Egypt.
A lot of the politics in the Middle East are scars from the Cold War when global super powers wanted you to either join Club West or the USSR, bloc. For a while, Islamism was seen as a third option but most Muslim majority nations don't really have an interest in Islamism as a political group. Saudi Arabia and Iran are in a tug of war over who gets to be the face of an Islamic bloc, but nations like Turkey and Egypt have the opportunities to not play the game. For a lot of the Middle East, Israel vs Palestine is the rallying cry for Islamism as a political identity separate from the so-called West, but this doesn't define the word stage anymore. Israel's been a nation for a while, regardless any representation, and for that reason more nations like Egypt see a value in staying neutral on the conflict and trading with whoever serves their interest.
It's not like Egypt want to conquer the Gaza strip, but a powerful/stable Israel and Palestine means more ships paying the toll for the Suez
Id say Sisi cares about himself and his regime more than Egypt itself. But youre on point.
I cant speak for the rest of the middle east but I assure you egyptian people do not want islamist rule. We got our fair share when Morsi was in charge and the people are still scarred from Muslim Brotherhood
Thank you for sharing your thoughts - I invite you to share any further insights that you might care to offer, since Egypt is likely to play a significant role in any outcome.
I try my best honestly. Egypt is a big country yes, but reddit isnt really a popular platform here so its rare to see Egyptians out of their chambers at r/egypt or likewise, so I understand my perspective Might be valuable to people interested in this conflict.
As an American, I'm not really sure what *Egyptians* feel, knowing that autocratic leaders generally only do what they think is most likely to preserve their power.
Isreal was negotiating a ceasefire for a certain number of living hostages, then Hamas "accepted" their own peace deal for a lower number of potentially alive hostages.
Then everyone hammered Isreal for not agreeing to a deal they hadn't even heard about.
Someone is making deals without everyone at the table.
Can I ask a bit of a nasty question? What press do you guys even trust on this? I follow generalist national and international press, I can't really imagine where you could get something approximating a more reasonable overview of events than there. Israeli and Arab press are useful as a comparison tool to see the internal perspective, but I don't want to get my news from the parties directly involved in the conflict.
Every time there's an article on Israel-Palestine I hear people saying that 'the press' is lying to everyone all the time or whatever, but I can never figure out what better sources we can use, unless I am meant to just pick my preferred primary state department source to get my info diet from.
To be honest there is no true reliable press. Unfortunately, They're all driven by bias and not integrity
Best way to analyse this is to read up on history (check your sources too)
And analyze news and people's perspectives from both sides and from neighbouring countries.
For Arab news is also important to note what they tell to middle eastern audiences may tell a different narrative from what Arab news say to westerners.
Not that western media is exactly honest but it's important to be aware what is exactly told to different audiences
It's also best not to jump into conclusions and take everything in face value. Always wait until more details is revealed.
That's the most advice I can give you.
It's not easy, but the most important thing in general is to be patient with breaking news because that's where misinformation is most common. It doesn't hurt me at all to wait a few days, weeks or months to form a strong opinion on an event until there's enough evidence and I understand what happened well enough.
When it comes to legal things like the various ICJ rulings that have been misreported those are public record so I try to read them myself to see if they match what I'm being told. I'm not a legal expert though so I'll hold any insights I read from it lightly until I also try to look for less biased legal experts to comment on it and see if I can match up what they say to the document or any relevant history they're mentioning.
For history I think it's important to try to read primary sources or their translations whenever possible and to avoid pop historians. Even with more respected historians who can read the original languages I'd generally try to read about the same things from both the Arab and Israeli perspective.
In general whether in or out of the I/P context never trust quotes or video clips without going and independently finding the context. And keep in mind that while the situation seems intractable there have been a number of significant changes within both sides at various points in time so there's a tendency for propogandists to take a quote or policy from a decade or more before an event and try to apply it to the event. Same with trying to figure out how much someone speaks for a cause at the time they said the thing, one person, even in a position of leadership, doesn't speak for millions of people on either side. A lot of Israeli's hate Ben Gvir and a lot of Palestinians hate Sinwar, them being in leadership doesn't even mean everyone in their own parties agree with them.
But, again, above all, it's okay not to have a strong opinion for however long it takes to be able to do enough research to justify a strong opinion.
If you want a look with a largely military focus, I'm a fan of [Between the Lines with Preston Stewart](https://m.youtube.com/@PrestonStewart) for news and analysis. It's on Substack and on YouTube.
If you want a look at how shit impacts shipping, and from a naval perspective, [What's Going On With Shipping](https://m.youtube.com/@wgowshipping), on YouTube.
The BBC, which everyone accuses of bias against them regardless of which side your on. It's certainly not perfect, but it's still one of the best options.
There is only one outlet that I know of that can be reasonably trusted: Bellingcat.
They are an investigative group that aims to back up every statement they make with publically available information. The catch here is that they can take weeks to "break" a story because they can spend so long verifying everything. They also focus on russia-related events.
Aside from that, you're best getting news from as many sources as possible *even things like al Jazeera*.
The goal is to be abe to build a bigger picture and understand bias in sources, so that you can parse the information you are getting. I also find just reddit comments are a useful source. They are't reliable but as the ancient adage goes; "the best way to get accurate information is to post something wrong on the internet."
I think bellingcat is a generally well intention org that does more thorough research than most major news outlets. But Elliott Higgins was a senior fellow at the Atlantic council for several years and still works with them. And they get funding from the national endowment for democracy.
I'm not saying they're CIA stooges, but anyone getting money from the NED is going to be at least somewhat slanted in favor of the US. Everyone has their slant to be sure, I'm not dismissing them of course.
> Smart leadership, the international press can’t be trusted at this point.
I hate feeling that way, but yeah, this war has really black pilled me on a lot of media organizations. Et tu, the Guardian? Et tu?
New York Times had to issue an early apology, too.
Or at least, their version of one:
Editors’ Note: Gaza Hospital Coverage https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/23/pageoneplus/editors-note-gaza-hospital-coverage.html
They’ve issued two retractions at least I think: this one, and then *one* of the many, many rape allegations (that particular one was based on a doctor’s testimony that the doctor himself had realized was incorrect and apologized). The latter is an unfortunate situation because the UN commission on sexual violence has thoroughly investigated it and determined that there was overwhelming circumstantial evidence of rape as a tactic on Oct 7.
Oh, man, did you ever read their coverage of the 2017 Hamas charter? People share it as proof that Hamas wants to live side by side with Israel.
The Guardian straight-up lied about the whole piece. It says nothing like that.
I saw a thread on twitter about the *massive* differences between Al Jazeera articles in English vs Arabic concerning this war. The coverage for the same incident will be *wildly* different.
Agreed. This is a testament to how deceptive the media has been and how Biden seems to be trying his best to navigate a difficult domestic political situation and a difficult geopolitical situation.
It probably has to do with the fact that the defense minister told the hostages families that securing a deal to rescue the hostages was not the primary goal of the operation.
I believe you are referring to the National Security Advisor, not the defense minister, it’s a more political position that hold much less power in internal politics and the overall war efforts.
And Netanyahu's best hope for a U.S. green light on broadening the campaign is now a convicted felon. A lot of time left, but I suspect several world leaders hoping to "wait it out" on Biden *may* see it's possible they'll be dealing with him a bit longer (though elections are never certain).
It's apparently been modified by the US:
> "Sources close to Mr Netanyahu" have told him they do not "wholly recognise or agree with" the proposal outlined by Mr Biden
I see what you are saying but also Biden made threats to Israel about stopping arms and the Rafah bombing just happened so he had to make a stance soon regardless.
I do think it has to do with the American election but in a different way. I think they were signaling to Biden that they are willing to extend the war all the way up to the election as a kind of threat
The Israeli statement was that combat can last through the end of the year. It wasn’t tied to the US election, it was tied to the calendar. The statement was:
> We are now in the fifth month of 2024, which means we expect another seven months of fighting to deepen our achievements and achieve our goal of destroying the military and governmental capabilities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad
Also, the US election is in a little over 5 months, not seven. And I believe Israel made its proposal a couple days ago. Biden is making a speech about it now, I *think* because the proposal was barely reported in the press and when it was reported it was with a pro-Hamas slant.
This money should be used to help out regular Palestinians it was meant for. So there should be international pressure on Quatar to return blatantly stolen funds.
This is such a delusional take. There has been a widening rift between Hamas’ political bureau in Qatar - who are corrupt but savvy politicians and widely disliked in Gaza - and the ground leadership in Gaza led by Yahya Sinwar who are by now dominated by radicals in favour of all-out war for some time now.
That rift blew wide open on Oct 7 and since then Sinwar calls the shots with Haniyeh in Qatar being his mouthpiece despite being technically his senior. If Qatar pulls the plug, the Hamas fat cats in Doha will be hurt but it won’t change a damn thing for Sinwar and Co. in Gaza, they’ll probably reject any ceasefire or hostage deal since they have nothing to lose.
They couldn’t keep them alive because they are a miserable rag tag militia that can barely keep itself alive. They never expected to capture hundreds of hostages so they had no way of reaching them or housing them. Add on the brutal war and they had little chance of surviving 7 months.
I think Israel’s constant barrage of war crimes has been horrific (and let’s be clear, the moment they dropped white phosphorous, they were war criminals. that’s a war crime. period), to say the least. I’m also sick of people genuinely believing that Hamas is the Rebel Alliance from Star wars. I WATCHED THE OCT 7 VIDEOS BECAUSE THEY UPLOADED THEMSELVES. If you gleefully kill dogs and kidnap children and light people’s houses on fire with them inside and then upload the video to brag about it, you can fuck all the way off to hell.
I think a lot of people can’t wrap their heads around the fact that this is not a binary conflict. There is no “good guy” and “bad guy” here, this is an extremely complex situation where both armies do not see the civilian populace on the other side as human.
Yes. But hamas is not an intelligent hivemind. It's a bunch of religious fanatics. You hired your goons with the promise of "killing all jews" and now there's jews in front of them. They're more rabid dogs on a leash than soldiers. And now you need to tell the dogs to guard the ham, without eating it.
the deal says nothing about alive hostages, it´s actually the worst deal i have ever seen, it doesn´t even demand the immediate release of all alive hostages, honestly biden would never make this deal for the us if these were his hostages
"The first phase would last for six weeks ... \[and\] would include a full and complete cease-fire, withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza, the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly, the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners," Biden said.
"Then phase two would be in exchange for the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, Israeli forces, with withdrawal from Gaza – and as long as Hamas lives up to its commitments, a temporary cease-fire would become, in the words of the Israeli proposal, a cessation of hostilities permanently," Biden continued.
Phase three would encompass "a major reconstruction plan for Gaza," according to Biden, as well as the repatriation of the remains of deceased hostages to their families. "The people of Israel should know they can make this offer without any further risk to their own security, because they've devastated Hamas over the past eight months."
exactly, actually this has happened before and many people don´t know it, in 1972 a palestinian terrorist organization called black september infiltrated the olympic games and murdered all israeli athletes (you can find the actual footage of them with guns and masks taking over the complex, it´s awful) israel launched an attack and ended that organization, when they left gaza in 2005 hamas took over, if israel retreats now (with ot without wiping out hamas) another terrorist group will be born, they can´t be given "freedom" because they are all radicalized since birth (source, the son of hamas who has explained how children are raised) and also because there´s plenty of footage of children being taught hatred towards the jews and the so called martyr cause, after 9/11 the US obliterated isis murdering millions in the process, no one ever told them to stop, hell we saw ukraine vs russia, more than 1 million dead already we never saw manifestations at the level we saw for palestine
Don't get too excited, almost everything he said is a gross exaggeration over simplification or fabrication. For example, the rise of Hamas has absolutely nothing to do with black September's fall.
Several things:
The US reconstruction in Japan was sweeping and lasted almost a decade. The average Japanese citizen had a significantly higher standard of living a decade post-war than they did at the end of the war.
US troops supplied massive food aid across the country. They **declined** to dissolve the well respected monarchy while simultaneously transitioning the actual role of government to democracy, including the enfranchising women. Established a constitution, abolished the state religion (enabling the still large Buddhist population to practice their faith openly), established labor standards and weakened large industrial conglomerates (ironically an attempt to weaken Japan's industrial potential but almost certainly having the opposite effect).
They didn't just leave the Japanese people to live in squalor post war. It was possibly the greatest case of intentional nation building in history.
It seems like every wealthy nation should be doing this with every war torn one in the world. But maybe Japanese culture had something to do with it, too.
South Korea exploded into the modern era after some... tumultuous years following the war. But here we are now. South Korea during the Korean war was devastated.
It requires a complete surrender on the part of the occupied country. I don't think we've really had a formal surrender happen like that for a long time, and it seems fundamentally incompatible with terrorist organizations
To give some good perspective, Japans generals wanted to keep fighting *AFTER WE NUKED THEM, TWICE*.
Having an Emperor able to go over their heads and say "dude we just fucking lost" went really goddamn far.
"the enemy has begun to employ a new and most cruel bomb, the power of which to do damage is, indeed, incalculable, taking the toll of many innocent lives. Should we continue to fight, not only would it result in an ultimate collapse and obliteration of the Japanese nation, but also it would lead to the total extinction of human civilization."
"it is according to the dictates of time and fate that We have resolved to pave the way for a grand peace for all the generations to come by enduring the unendurable and suffering what is insufferable"
actual quotes (translated) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirohito_surrender_broadcast
The US wasn't just wealthy, it was one of the richest countries pre-war, and post war it was basically the only rich and powerful country that wasn't war torn, tired and traumatized, while also being owed monumental amounts of debt by every ally.
Also remember this only happened because Japan was promised complete annihilation should they refuse to capitulate. You think rich countries should be promising complete annihilation at every country they capture that refuses to follow their every order?
> It seems like every wealthy nation should be doing this with every war torn one in the world. But maybe Japanese culture had something to do with it, too.
That's called imperialism.
We essentially reformed their entire government and wrote complete demilitarization into their new constitution. It's actually apparently pretty hard to saber rattle when you're not allowed to own a saber. Metaphorically.
And to bring it around to this conflict, demilitarizing Gaza is a totally different beast since there is already effectively an arms embargo on them; everything they have is being smuggled in. And they have previously repurposed their own infrastructure into weapons, like digging up plumbing pipes to turn into rockets.
Yeah, it's the embargo and the construction of a friendly and effective government in tandem that made it work in the past. There's going to need to be a permanent presence willing and able to confiscate and dismantle smuggled/improvised weapons while rebuilding infrastructure and deradicalizing the population.
Because the US occupied Japan (and Germany) for a long time after the war and basically reconstructed a new democratic deradicalized state.
That wouldn't be the case here. Hamas would remain in power, Israel can't reform their state nor deradicalized the population.
Germany fucked over France and they’re close allies.
You can be horrible to each other but there’s gotta be a process to heal. Israel and Palestine have never done that.
Because Japan and Germany stood alone when they surrendered.
Palestine/Hamas does not stand alone. They have billions of allies in 55 countries who support them in their fight against Israel
Keyword is *populated*
Might exclude the Gazan border to Egypt and thus give Israel power over Hamas' smuggling routes they didn't enjoy since they left Gaza. This would be a long-term strategic win hidden in all the losses
This is exactly how I read it as well. Israel would presumably control a huge buffer area on the Egyptian border to prevent weapons smuggling. Also, given that the deepest smuggling tunnels under the border are thought to be 100 feet, it would not surprise me if Israel was to dig a trench 300 feet deep a half mile from the border. And then 6 months later dig it another 50 feet deeper.
Even if most of the hostages have been killed, the bodies need to come home. No one left behind. That said, to think of the prisoners released because of this, but hopefully this finally leads to the end of the Mardyr fund.
This feels like it’s going to end up just like post US Civil War reconstruction ended. Hamas is going to lose the war but win the peace. And that totally won’t cause problems for the next hundred years.
This isn't the first time. I'm not that old, but this is the third or fourth major flare-up in the area in my lifetime. Israel is basically a testing ground for "how do you stop ethnic group A from trying to murder another ethnic group B without killing everyone in ethnic group A" and it's kind of depressing that we don't seem to be getting closer to answering that.
So yes, there's a certain risk of that, but more to the point, Hamas will attack again within ten years.
I mean we played that game at least twice in the last century, in Japan and Germany, and we created lasting peace there. But first, both countries had to be conquered completely.
UN just said that Israel letting trucks with aid is not enough and Israel needs to secure the aid so it will get to its target.
Yes the UN blames Israel for Hamas crimes
The UN is just following the rest of the world with not holding Hamas (the elected government of Gaza) accountable for anything. They don't have to protect their civilians, distinguish between military and civilian targerts, build bomb shelters, satisfy ceasefire conditions, ANYTHING. It's all on Israel, and if Israel does it it's apartheid.
Probably about the same way as a ceasefire will turn out now. Regardless, Hamas can evidently be sufficiently amnesic about their "goal to exterminate all Jews" to sign a ceasefire agreement.
They'll sign it and kill more Jews in five years, knowing the world will pressure Israel into another cease fire after they butcher and kidnap more civilians.
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>The group said it was prepared for a "complete agreement", including hostage exchanges, if Israel stopped the war from its side, however.
Hamas is full of shit. They will start the war again if not now then in a few years.
I don't even think it's that insane. The US started a war over a sunk ship (maybe even 2!) and another one over some fog that made vaguely Vietnamese noises. Israel has been undergoing attacks from Hamas for more than a decade since they pulled out of Gaza iirc. and haven't done much.
this is a fairly common war by war standards. It's not especially brutal or cruel or anything. It's just war, and war sucks.
Now watch closely as Hamas rejects the offer again.
They don't want peace and they don't care about Palestinians - they want power for themselves and their primary mean to get it is to kill all the jews.
The more Palestinians, the better for their cause...
Sad fact but if people want Palestinians to have a decent opportunity to have some kind of normal lives, Hamas (leaders) needs to go.
> Sky Middle East correspondent Alistair Bunkall says he has been told the deal has not been made "with the cooperation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu". That seems interesting
As soon as the war ends, Netanyahu is done politically and will likely face corruption charges when he leaves office. He wants this war to go on as long as possible.
Reddit always thinks Bibi is about to get booted out and yet years and years of this being predicted and he's still around. We'll see, war or not I don't think he's going away like you predict.
The reason he stayed in power for so long was not because he is well liked, but because of how the voting system works in Israel. The coalition he has is held up by a thread with idiots like Smotrich and Ben Gvir who don’t have a lot of voters. The opposition had a huge problem of not being able to build a cohesive government and ended up failing, mostly because of Netanyahu managed to split the country. Anyway, at the last elections, many people didnt know who to vote for anymore, the opposition’s government just fell down and it felt like its either Netanyahu or another election season, so lots of people didnt vote anymore. I can 100% guarantee you that the next elections will look different. Ever since trying to change the judicial system, it was clear that the vast majority of his followers started to crack and go out against him, and then 7/10 in my opinion was the final nail in the coffin for him. He played every card he has in his hands. Of course he has one more card - becoming a dictator, but I don’t think he can achieve that when all other branches of the government and the army are wary of him
Get out of here with your insight and nuance.
Bibi has to answer for laughable border security resulting in the death of over 1,000 Israeli citizens on Oct 7th. Bibi also has to handle accusations he ignored advanced American warnings of the attack and tolerating Hamas because he thought the PLO on the West Bank was more dangerous.
This makes me thing I was thinking even better. When I saw that headline I was really curious why this was being said by Biden and not by someone from Israel. It felt a lot like an outsider deciding that the war is over while the people actually in the war not being aware of that decision. Now your comment makes that even crazier. Then again if this just means that other people in power in Israel have agreed to this deal but just Netanyahu not being part of that but the terms of the deal can still be kept even without him, that's good enough for me. Just like when it comes to America, it's not the American people that we don't like, it's your government and the people in power. So, nothing against Israeli citizens (apart from settlers, screw them.), but screw the Israeli government, specifically Netanyahu.
That's weird, from the news here in Israel everyone says it was a unanimous vote of the war cabinet, meaning he did approve the deal. What was made without informing our government was Biden making the deal public. To my understanding it was supposed to stay under the table until agreed upon by both sides
Some more details from [the BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cw8860gn1nwo): >Speaking at the White House on Friday, Mr Biden said that the first phase of the proposed plan would include a "full and complete ceasefire", the withdrawal of IDF forces from populated areas and the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners. > >"This is truly a decisive moment," he said. "Hamas says it wants a ceasefire. This deal is an opportunity to prove whether they really mean it." > >The ceasefire, he added, would allow more humanitarian aid to reach the beleaguered territory, with "600 trucks carrying aid into Gaza every single day." > >The second phase would see all remaining living hostages returned, including male soldiers. The ceasefire would then become "the cessation of hostilities, permanently." > >In his speech, Mr Biden acknowledged that negotiations between phase one and phase two would be difficult. > >The third phase would see the final remains of any deceased Israeli hostages returned, as well as a "major reconstruction plan" with US and international assistance to rebuild homes, schools and hospitals.
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... Doing that in Western Europe after WWII is exactly how the U.S. became the global superpower that led the West through the Cold War. You might want to read about the Marshall Plan, the political payback, the American ownership of foreign infrastructure, the preferential trade agreements, and everything else that came out of using U.S. tax dollars to rebuild far larger regions that had been far more thoroughly destroyed. Much of the American economy, even today, is built on the preferential trade that comes from security guarantees the U.S. can logistically support because of the alliances that came out of those tax dollars.
Still better than Soviet Russian influence, theft, exploitation and ownership. Not mention mass rapes.
It works pretty well. The U.S. protects a bunch of governments, including some brutal and nasty ones, from aggressive neighbors and often-much-nastier rebels. In exchange, it gets so many exceptions to protectionist policies that most Americans don't know how difficult international business (outside of trading blocs like the E.U.) is for everyone else. The huge cash inflow from stuff like not paying 80% taxes for resource extraction or 30% "licensing fees" (bribes) wherever they want to sell stuff then supports a lot of jobs domestically. EDIT: The 80% taxes I was thinking of were Saudi taxes on foreign corporations extracting oil there. The 30% is of operating costs (not sales), which, until recently at least, was where the Canadian justice system drew the line between normal costs of doing business and being an accomplice to bribery.
I appreciate your comments as this is not something I have ever considered or even known. Makes sense why the US economy is so far ahead now
Yeah but the US has to do a shit load of expensive stuff in every region of the world every single day in order to remain the #1 power in the world. What’s that you say, you don’t care about the US being the #1 power in the world? It’s easy to say something like that when the only life you have ever known is a life lived inside that #1 world power.
No joke, had someone tell me on here that the US Military was a waste of money because the US never gets invaded.
That is just… man. That person lacks the capacity for abstract thought.
Raytheon liked this post
Knife missles incoming!
I get frustrated too but the superpower age has been fairly stable with significant increases of life expectancy and quality of life in developing nations around the world and I think this is a price we pay. It’s not fair but the world is so messy
Standard American practice since WWII. We build up our own middle and working class by 1) building arms to ship to use in foreign wars and 2) exporting necessities and luxuries to places that can't produce the goods themselves, due to the bombing of their infrastructure. It's a guaranteed decade long (at a minimum) job security program in all 50 states.
How many Americans are actually making a living by us supplying bombs to other countries? Not that it means anything but I've lived in 5 different states and I have yet to meet some blue collar guy who works at a bomb factory and has a decent house and a family and all that. How much of that bomb money goes into the pockets of people who make less than $150k/year?
They follow the same patterns as all the other businesses. Raython (and most defense contractors) have the majority of their business and engineering offices in the mid Atlantic, from NJ, PA, VA, MD, due to the proximity to DC and factories (aka the bomb building guys) in Texas, Louisiana, and Alabama, and tech centers in Cali, NC, and PA, and TX. BAE Systems has its offices in PA as well as in VA, several shipyards in FL and CA, and others in MN, TN, and AZ. It's all public data, you can look it up on their sites Come to the mid Atlantic and every fifth engineer you meet works for a defense contractor.
My favorite part is when they dismantle the billions in infrastructure we build for them, and use it make shitty homemade rockets that will then be blown up by rockets we supply to the other side.
The EU built the water system with those pipes. But otherwise. Eyup
That's one of my least favorite parts.
> but we can't have universal healthcare or do something about home prices or fund programs for stronger workers rights. Even the neolibs have been on board with all of those recently. You can thank conservatives for no domestic spending on any of those issues, not this administration.
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This part honestly sounds pretty good
So according to this article this deal was offered without cooperation or agreement from Benjamin Netanyahu government. Forgive me but how can you make a deal without major player being part of it? How is this different to what happened with Egypt two weeks ago? I was reading the terms of the deal and they suck from Israeli perspective- if they were not involved or agreed to it this would make perfect sense. WTH
Netanyahu's coalition will collapse if Gantz pulls his support, as his wing has signaled. I'm guessing this deal was hammered out with his people.
But that still would dissolve the government as Gantz is not part of Bibi coalition, just war cabinet? Or am I misunderstanding? Even if Bibi government collapses, until a new one is put in, he gets to call the shots
You need to understand the current hierarchy, there are 4 elements at play here : 1. **The Government** - This is the coalition of parties governing the parliament, it has 64 of 120 parliament members (min req 61), they area the lawmakers and completely irrelevant for this topic unless they quit the government, I'll add an important note that it currently has an additional party of 12 members in the government solely for a 'war unity gov' but if they quit nothing changes, the government only collapses if they go below 61 2. **The Cabinet** - This is the original forum for security and diplomacy matters (or anything very important), it currently has 6 permanent members from the coalition (4 Likud, 1 Religious Zionism, 1 Jewish Might, basically all the leaders) with an additional 7 members (3 Likud, 3 National Unity, 1 non affiliated minister), 1 observer, 5 permanent VIPs (AG, Chief of National Security+1, Military Secretary for PM+Defense Minister) and to close it all off, these meetings typically take place with a whole host of VIPs such as the Chief of Staff/ISA/Mossad and basically all the liaisons or important and relevant security personnel Technically speaking this is the 'real' forum, but due to the war, the War Cabinet was established for faster and dedicated decision making 3. **The War Cabinet** - This includes Netanyahu, Gallant (Defense Minister), Gantz (Opposition party leader that joined the gov solely for war purposes, currently Netanyahu's biggest political rival and former Chief of Staff) and a couple observers (one of which is also a former chief of staff), this is where all the real decisions are being made 4. **The Negotiators** - assigned a mandate by the War Cabinet, which as stated received immense flexibility (this means Netanyahu didn't need to agree to 100% of it from the get go) The term of the deal does suck for Israel, I believe Netanyahu relies on Hamas to fuck it up and ruin negotiations on the 3rd stage, afterwhich Israel may resume fighting but will already have all the hostages, a war with Lebanon might also overshadow all this deal, if we get the female hostages at the very least, Netanyahu will be relieved of A LOT of domestic pressure From Israel's standpoint, this deals means returning to a worse state than oct 6, because all the 'axis of resistance' (Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and so on) are emboldened and will claim victory (They already do) and showcase that armed resistance is the only way to achieve their goals, Israel basically surrenders to get its hostages back and will return to war at a later date in worse conditions, especially if a 2 state solution is forced upon them The US just wants it to end, they are hoping Gaza's hostilities ending will stop the Houtis and Hezbollah (and Iraq) from attacking too and they want to tie it all in with a Saudi normalization deal and a 2 state solution, all before elections, they are in for a disappointing reality...
I think Biden held a press conference and announced this because he didn’t want international media twisting the narrative like they did with the last ceasefire debacle. last time, the international press reported that Hamas had accepted a ceasefire proposal and put the onus on Israel to respond even though Israel hadn’t even seen the proposal and the new terms Hamas agreed to seemed to be dictated by Hamas (we later learned there was Egyptian espionage at play that sabotaged the deal) This time Biden is making very clear whose court the ball is in. Smart leadership, the international press can’t be trusted at this point.
And the US and Israel were both completely betrayed by Egypt, who had their own side-negotiations going on and lied to everyone else about what they were showing Hamas.
As an egyptian, its not clear at all where Egypt even stands. They seem to hate Hamas and Israel equally, ignoring what their people are feeling as usual
Imo they want Israel and Hamas to continue fighting indefinitely. Like you said they view both as enemies so they likely want to weaken both.
Thats a good point actually. I always believed they just REALLY didnt want to be a part of this conflict, so they just wanted it to end asap so that sabotage attempt was made. But thinking about it, it makes no sense that they fr thought Israel would just accept the changed deal without realizing it has changed The only thing I know for sure is that Egypt does NOT want Hamas in Sina, so theyre not letting Palestinians in
>The only thing I know for sure is that Egypt does NOT want Hamas in Sina, so theyre not letting Palestinians in Considering all the tunnels that were found recently, it is likely there are some Hamas members who have fled to the Sinai.
Yeah unfortunately.. Our government isnt being too public about how it feels, so we dont know if they expected this or if it was a surprise or etc etc, so no clue what are their plans to deal with that
Honestly I think it's one of those you monitor the ones you know about because even if you destroy every one that you find others are going to be dug, and it you keep a few up and watch them you can at least track some of who or what is moved across the border
I mean, there are less than 100 Jews that live in Egypt. Egyptians aren't exactly friendly to Jews
Calling someone a Jew is an insult here. So youre spot on.
Calling someone a Jew who isn’t a Jew is more or less treated as an insult *everywhere*
calling someone a jew who is a jew can also be treated as an insult based on context and tone of how its said
That is also a common insult I’ve seen growing up. Especially if that Jewish person does something “stereotypical” of being Jewish. Like being extremely handsome for example.
Tbh. Good point. Im just so used to people Using it as an insult here in arabic that it didnt strike me that the same is done but in English. Its like both are different insults because theyre different languages. Bilingual brain fuck on my part
To be calling someone something they aren’t is usually an insult in English because usually it’s done when that person is doing something “stereotypical” of that group.
Calling someone something they aren't is pretty much an insult everywhere. Anyway in this case, I'm guessing calling a non-Jew Jew has to do with the stereotype that Jews are stingy with money? I saw that happening only maybe a couple of times in my whole life and those times were within that context.
I’ve seen it many a time growing up. But ya you’re totally right, calling anyone something they aren’t is usually an insult.
I wonder if looking the other way at the tunnels was a bribe to keep Hamas out of Egypt. The last thing Egypt needs economically are Islamic radicals bombing tour buses of American and European retirees at historic sites.
There's been a couple of terrorist attacks in Sinai this century, most recently: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Sinai_mosque_attack
Hamas started as a "charity organization" created by the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt. They basically created more mosques and got control of the ones there and attempted to control the religious narrative in Gaza. The Muslim Brotherhood was labeled a terrorist organization and kicked out of Egypt. Egypt doesn't want that shit coming back into their nation.
Which makes sense for prolonging the war. Hamas has no chance of winning a war against Israel, so they get Israel to do the fighting for Egypt
It's literally a win-win for Egypt. It throws a wrench into the Israel-KSA treaty talks while also reducing the risk of Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood to Egypt.
Part of the reason that Egypt doesn't join in against Israel is because of American aid. After the Camp David accords, Egypt quickly became one of the biggest recipients of US foreign aid. It is understood that if Egypt breaks their neutrality, they lose all that aid, and it won't come back anytime soon. So what do you do if you're Egypt? Join a war against a country that you've never beaten, and lose a bunch of free money in the process?
Is Israel really getting weaker? People might be upset by this, but fighting in urban warfare situations, utilizing drones, airstrikes, tanks, etc. This is honestly just a proving ground for the IDF to learn and adapt to modern warfare, without having to worry about an enemy air force. Israel has already defeated Egypt twice decisively. This renewed training for IDF soldiers and pilots is only going to make them an even more formidable fighting force should the arab coalition ever try again.
I think Egypt had a good ~~smuggling~~ trade deal that was going with Gaza, even before Hamas took over. There has been tunnels going into Egypt since the 80's at least, for smuggling arms and goods after Israel took (kept, Egypt refused to accept it back) the territory in 67. Since then there has always been smuggling to and from Egypt. In recent years Egypt has cracked down on the tunnels, claiming to destroy some 1,500(!) of them yet dozens more were left undamaged and just now 20 were discovered within days of Israel taking the Gaza side of the border. In my opinion, the human trafficking out of Gaza and arms and goods trafficking into Gaza provided a stable and profitable enough business to certain Egyptian individuals that they managed to convince the government to leave the tunnels open.
I'm still not sure what they really stand to gain, though? By no means am I well versed in the Egyptian government, but they don't seem to have a huge military or anything. I don't see them gaining any actual territory out of this. Even if Palestine is left a smoldering ruin, unable to defend itself, Israel will never let Egypt actually claim any ground there. I know there's probably a lot more to ot than that, but still.
The Egyptian military is its own rabbit hole. It operates in a decent portion of the Egyptian economy and has pretty darn good equipment for the region. Unfortunately it also utilizes unpopular conscription and has a focus on maintaining internal control. That plus dividing its energy into turning profit means it is never really deployed in an effective fashion for external conflict, nor are large parts of it trained adequately for modern combat. Your analysis on territory seems correct to me. Weakening Hamas could reduce odds of radical influence in their territory though, and a weaker Israel might give them more leverage as a “reasonable”country in the area with international partners.
Palestine goes away and Israel seriously compromises it's long term support from Western nations. The US may not take the ICC warrants seriously but the Europeans do, even if those warrants will never be actively served. They act as a de facto ban from the EU at the very least. Egypt wants to see relations between Israel and the west break down.
Egypt has a very large army for the region and in the past they've also been offered the Gaza strip several times. They've declined every time
Egypt has the most powerful military in the Middle East irc. It's the 15th strongest in the world. [https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=egypt]
I am surprised that Egypt has not attacked the Houthis if anyone was impacted by their attacks it's been the Suez Cannel and Egypt. Not only that but Houthis missiles hit Taba in the Sinai.
Suez canal fees make up around 2.5 percent of Egypt's GDP. Traffic is currently down by 50%. That's a painful cut, but not painful enough for Sisi to risk bringing up a large part of Egypt's population against his rule by siding with Israel.
Things in Egypt are a bit unstable now too. Sisi got his job because he presented himself as a savior from Morsi/Muslim Brotherhood. And his supporters always used the line "At least its not as bad as when Morsi was in charge" But now it is. Probably much worse with how our economy is. People are really angry at him but theyre too scared to sacrifice their life for a revolution.. But when you see how much egyptians fight each other regarding boycotting alone.. Yeah openly supporting Israel in such a way could be the flare that brings Sisi and his regime down. As much as I want that man and his military rule to go, I dont think its a good idea at all for another revolution to come so suddenly
1.25% of your GDP gone seems really huge tbh. That's like if a quarter of US construction work just disappeared. Why couldn't Egypt just paint it as defending the canal alongside the US and others who struck back at the Houthis rather than engaging with the Houthis' stated goals?
Worth pointing out that getting in to a conflict with the Houthis as a neighboring regional power is up there with "land war in afganistan" levels of nope. I don't even think it was a good idea for the US to take offensive operations against them, but the US is already loosely affiliated with Saudi side of the ongoing civil war in Yemen.
It’s a tough position for Egypt. They don’t want Palestinian refugees flooding in, they don’t want Muslim Brotherhood Islamists toppling the current regime, they wouldn’t take Gaza if it were free, and the last Egyptian head of state who signed a peace accord with Israel got riddled with bullets.
Tbh El-Saddatt's peace deal is considered to be a great move here and he is respected as a wise man and a lover of peace. But considering people are already calling Sisi, our current president, a Jew traitor.. Yeah it wont end well for him if he signs a deal with Israel.
Anwar Sadat did indeed prove he was a righteous and wise man who was a lover of peace. Unfortunately it did not rub off on his people. Sisi apparently knows his people much better than Sadat.
Do Egyptian people support the Muslim brotherhood? I thought they had a base of support, but never the majority
Last time they got free elections they elected a Muslim Brotherhood associated party, supposedly the muslim brotherhood are now more "pacifists" than before, but considering that they started making extremist militia groups the second they got into power in Egypt, i will go ahead and doubt that.
Yeah they had their chance and heavily failed to keep the rule, thankfully. So Id bet money that the majority absolutely despises them
The Muslim Brotherhood quickly lost the support of the Egyptian public after winning the elections. https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/05/Egypt-Report-03.png
Oh absolutely not. There are some that still do, but whether theyre majority or minority.. Theyre staying quiet. The Muslim Brotherhood had their chance to rule egypt and failed miserably with Morsi back in 2013~, I cant remember the exact date. Since then, muslim Brotherhood Name has had a huge taboo on it and youd definitely get arrested if you show any support to them publicly enough. Heck, I remember they changed a famous poem taught in school because it contained the word "اخواني" which means "my friends" but also is the word used to refer to a member of the muslim Brotherhood. They are that hated here.
That's what I thought, I was confused about how Egypt was ignoring what their people were feeling as Hamas is Muslim brotherhood Article 2 of Hamas' Charter defines Hamas as one of the branches of the Muslim Brotherhood in Palestine
People in Egypt are a bit ignorant. Education isnt the best here which is a huge reason why studying overseas is very popular and a dream here. Heck, even I want to go and study at MIT for my Master's. And even tho I love to hear both sides regarding this conflict.. I didnt even know Hamas was a branch of the muslim brotherhood so I really doubt a random egyptian in his 40-50s is going to know that.. So Id say its mostly due to ignorance that they support Hamas
As an outsider, it seems to me that Egypt stands for Egypt. A lot of the politics in the Middle East are scars from the Cold War when global super powers wanted you to either join Club West or the USSR, bloc. For a while, Islamism was seen as a third option but most Muslim majority nations don't really have an interest in Islamism as a political group. Saudi Arabia and Iran are in a tug of war over who gets to be the face of an Islamic bloc, but nations like Turkey and Egypt have the opportunities to not play the game. For a lot of the Middle East, Israel vs Palestine is the rallying cry for Islamism as a political identity separate from the so-called West, but this doesn't define the word stage anymore. Israel's been a nation for a while, regardless any representation, and for that reason more nations like Egypt see a value in staying neutral on the conflict and trading with whoever serves their interest. It's not like Egypt want to conquer the Gaza strip, but a powerful/stable Israel and Palestine means more ships paying the toll for the Suez
Id say Sisi cares about himself and his regime more than Egypt itself. But youre on point. I cant speak for the rest of the middle east but I assure you egyptian people do not want islamist rule. We got our fair share when Morsi was in charge and the people are still scarred from Muslim Brotherhood
Thank you for sharing your thoughts - I invite you to share any further insights that you might care to offer, since Egypt is likely to play a significant role in any outcome.
I try my best honestly. Egypt is a big country yes, but reddit isnt really a popular platform here so its rare to see Egyptians out of their chambers at r/egypt or likewise, so I understand my perspective Might be valuable to people interested in this conflict.
The generals are getting kickbacks from the tunnels. All of this is a hissy fit because Israel turned the spigot off.
As an American, I'm not really sure what *Egyptians* feel, knowing that autocratic leaders generally only do what they think is most likely to preserve their power.
Most Egyptians want the extinction of the Israeli people, so forgive me if I don’t really care
Completely justified. I dont share those views with my people at all, so I get it
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>about what they were showing Hamas. What is this referring to?
Isreal was negotiating a ceasefire for a certain number of living hostages, then Hamas "accepted" their own peace deal for a lower number of potentially alive hostages. Then everyone hammered Isreal for not agreeing to a deal they hadn't even heard about. Someone is making deals without everyone at the table.
Egypt presumably, who is the intermediary.
Can I ask a bit of a nasty question? What press do you guys even trust on this? I follow generalist national and international press, I can't really imagine where you could get something approximating a more reasonable overview of events than there. Israeli and Arab press are useful as a comparison tool to see the internal perspective, but I don't want to get my news from the parties directly involved in the conflict. Every time there's an article on Israel-Palestine I hear people saying that 'the press' is lying to everyone all the time or whatever, but I can never figure out what better sources we can use, unless I am meant to just pick my preferred primary state department source to get my info diet from.
To be honest there is no true reliable press. Unfortunately, They're all driven by bias and not integrity Best way to analyse this is to read up on history (check your sources too) And analyze news and people's perspectives from both sides and from neighbouring countries. For Arab news is also important to note what they tell to middle eastern audiences may tell a different narrative from what Arab news say to westerners. Not that western media is exactly honest but it's important to be aware what is exactly told to different audiences It's also best not to jump into conclusions and take everything in face value. Always wait until more details is revealed. That's the most advice I can give you.
It's not easy, but the most important thing in general is to be patient with breaking news because that's where misinformation is most common. It doesn't hurt me at all to wait a few days, weeks or months to form a strong opinion on an event until there's enough evidence and I understand what happened well enough. When it comes to legal things like the various ICJ rulings that have been misreported those are public record so I try to read them myself to see if they match what I'm being told. I'm not a legal expert though so I'll hold any insights I read from it lightly until I also try to look for less biased legal experts to comment on it and see if I can match up what they say to the document or any relevant history they're mentioning. For history I think it's important to try to read primary sources or their translations whenever possible and to avoid pop historians. Even with more respected historians who can read the original languages I'd generally try to read about the same things from both the Arab and Israeli perspective. In general whether in or out of the I/P context never trust quotes or video clips without going and independently finding the context. And keep in mind that while the situation seems intractable there have been a number of significant changes within both sides at various points in time so there's a tendency for propogandists to take a quote or policy from a decade or more before an event and try to apply it to the event. Same with trying to figure out how much someone speaks for a cause at the time they said the thing, one person, even in a position of leadership, doesn't speak for millions of people on either side. A lot of Israeli's hate Ben Gvir and a lot of Palestinians hate Sinwar, them being in leadership doesn't even mean everyone in their own parties agree with them. But, again, above all, it's okay not to have a strong opinion for however long it takes to be able to do enough research to justify a strong opinion.
If you want a look with a largely military focus, I'm a fan of [Between the Lines with Preston Stewart](https://m.youtube.com/@PrestonStewart) for news and analysis. It's on Substack and on YouTube. If you want a look at how shit impacts shipping, and from a naval perspective, [What's Going On With Shipping](https://m.youtube.com/@wgowshipping), on YouTube. The BBC, which everyone accuses of bias against them regardless of which side your on. It's certainly not perfect, but it's still one of the best options.
There is only one outlet that I know of that can be reasonably trusted: Bellingcat. They are an investigative group that aims to back up every statement they make with publically available information. The catch here is that they can take weeks to "break" a story because they can spend so long verifying everything. They also focus on russia-related events. Aside from that, you're best getting news from as many sources as possible *even things like al Jazeera*. The goal is to be abe to build a bigger picture and understand bias in sources, so that you can parse the information you are getting. I also find just reddit comments are a useful source. They are't reliable but as the ancient adage goes; "the best way to get accurate information is to post something wrong on the internet."
I think bellingcat is a generally well intention org that does more thorough research than most major news outlets. But Elliott Higgins was a senior fellow at the Atlantic council for several years and still works with them. And they get funding from the national endowment for democracy. I'm not saying they're CIA stooges, but anyone getting money from the NED is going to be at least somewhat slanted in favor of the US. Everyone has their slant to be sure, I'm not dismissing them of course.
> Smart leadership, the international press can’t be trusted at this point. I hate feeling that way, but yeah, this war has really black pilled me on a lot of media organizations. Et tu, the Guardian? Et tu?
New York Times had to issue an early apology, too. Or at least, their version of one: Editors’ Note: Gaza Hospital Coverage https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/23/pageoneplus/editors-note-gaza-hospital-coverage.html
They’ve issued two retractions at least I think: this one, and then *one* of the many, many rape allegations (that particular one was based on a doctor’s testimony that the doctor himself had realized was incorrect and apologized). The latter is an unfortunate situation because the UN commission on sexual violence has thoroughly investigated it and determined that there was overwhelming circumstantial evidence of rape as a tactic on Oct 7.
Oh, man, did you ever read their coverage of the 2017 Hamas charter? People share it as proof that Hamas wants to live side by side with Israel. The Guardian straight-up lied about the whole piece. It says nothing like that.
It made me realize just how many liberal westerners take Al Jazeera, of all sources, at their word.
I saw a thread on twitter about the *massive* differences between Al Jazeera articles in English vs Arabic concerning this war. The coverage for the same incident will be *wildly* different.
anything on al jazeera is pro palestinian and nothing else, do take note when u consume their media.
Agreed. This is a testament to how deceptive the media has been and how Biden seems to be trying his best to navigate a difficult domestic political situation and a difficult geopolitical situation.
>This time Biden is making very clear whose court the ball is in. Or, by announcing it, he's twisting Israel's arm. Either way, it \*is\* a smart move
If it's an Israeli proposal, how would announcing it be twisting Israel's arm?
It probably has to do with the fact that the defense minister told the hostages families that securing a deal to rescue the hostages was not the primary goal of the operation.
I believe you are referring to the National Security Advisor, not the defense minister, it’s a more political position that hold much less power in internal politics and the overall war efforts.
Biden outright stated there are members of the Israeli government unconcerned with getting back the hostages in favor of total victory.
Twisting Netanyahu's arm. Israel is like five factions wearing a trench coat lately.
And Netanyahu's best hope for a U.S. green light on broadening the campaign is now a convicted felon. A lot of time left, but I suspect several world leaders hoping to "wait it out" on Biden *may* see it's possible they'll be dealing with him a bit longer (though elections are never certain).
It's apparently been modified by the US: > "Sources close to Mr Netanyahu" have told him they do not "wholly recognise or agree with" the proposal outlined by Mr Biden
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I see what you are saying but also Biden made threats to Israel about stopping arms and the Rafah bombing just happened so he had to make a stance soon regardless.
Didn’t we send over an aid package like immediately after that statement tho lol
The reporting on that has been off but we blocked air dropped bombs, and we sent artillery and vehicles, so the air dropped bombs are still blocked.
I do think it has to do with the American election but in a different way. I think they were signaling to Biden that they are willing to extend the war all the way up to the election as a kind of threat
The Israeli statement was that combat can last through the end of the year. It wasn’t tied to the US election, it was tied to the calendar. The statement was: > We are now in the fifth month of 2024, which means we expect another seven months of fighting to deepen our achievements and achieve our goal of destroying the military and governmental capabilities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad Also, the US election is in a little over 5 months, not seven. And I believe Israel made its proposal a couple days ago. Biden is making a speech about it now, I *think* because the proposal was barely reported in the press and when it was reported it was with a pro-Hamas slant.
Nah man, these terms and details of the proposal usually take a few weeks to figure out
If Qatar made an ultimatum to Hamas accept the deal or we crush you, we would have cease fire in 2 minutes.
No need to crush anybody. Just take over all the Hamas leadership's palace and aid money they have been stealing.
This money should be used to help out regular Palestinians it was meant for. So there should be international pressure on Quatar to return blatantly stolen funds.
Qatar is quite happy playing kingmaker and using Hamas. They are not returning anything. Besides, there will aaaaaalways be more aid money for Gaza.
This is such a delusional take. There has been a widening rift between Hamas’ political bureau in Qatar - who are corrupt but savvy politicians and widely disliked in Gaza - and the ground leadership in Gaza led by Yahya Sinwar who are by now dominated by radicals in favour of all-out war for some time now. That rift blew wide open on Oct 7 and since then Sinwar calls the shots with Haniyeh in Qatar being his mouthpiece despite being technically his senior. If Qatar pulls the plug, the Hamas fat cats in Doha will be hurt but it won’t change a damn thing for Sinwar and Co. in Gaza, they’ll probably reject any ceasefire or hostage deal since they have nothing to lose.
Hamas won't accept it because they can't. They've killed and lost probably most of the hostages.
I'm an idiot, but surely the entire point of hostages are for bargaining power? If they killed them all, they have no chips?
They know that Israel still wants the bodies back for a Jewish funeral.
Also would obliterate a large amount of propaganda by revealing the extent of rape and torture.
Eh, "obliterate" is too strong a term to use, given that there's already plenty of evidence that people are ignoring as-is.
They couldn’t keep them alive because they are a miserable rag tag militia that can barely keep itself alive. They never expected to capture hundreds of hostages so they had no way of reaching them or housing them. Add on the brutal war and they had little chance of surviving 7 months.
I think Israel’s constant barrage of war crimes has been horrific (and let’s be clear, the moment they dropped white phosphorous, they were war criminals. that’s a war crime. period), to say the least. I’m also sick of people genuinely believing that Hamas is the Rebel Alliance from Star wars. I WATCHED THE OCT 7 VIDEOS BECAUSE THEY UPLOADED THEMSELVES. If you gleefully kill dogs and kidnap children and light people’s houses on fire with them inside and then upload the video to brag about it, you can fuck all the way off to hell. I think a lot of people can’t wrap their heads around the fact that this is not a binary conflict. There is no “good guy” and “bad guy” here, this is an extremely complex situation where both armies do not see the civilian populace on the other side as human.
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Yes. But hamas is not an intelligent hivemind. It's a bunch of religious fanatics. You hired your goons with the promise of "killing all jews" and now there's jews in front of them. They're more rabid dogs on a leash than soldiers. And now you need to tell the dogs to guard the ham, without eating it.
Exactly, which is a widely suspected reason of why they refuse to show proof of life. They can’t and it would show they have no chips.
the deal says nothing about alive hostages, it´s actually the worst deal i have ever seen, it doesn´t even demand the immediate release of all alive hostages, honestly biden would never make this deal for the us if these were his hostages "The first phase would last for six weeks ... \[and\] would include a full and complete cease-fire, withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza, the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly, the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners," Biden said. "Then phase two would be in exchange for the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, Israeli forces, with withdrawal from Gaza – and as long as Hamas lives up to its commitments, a temporary cease-fire would become, in the words of the Israeli proposal, a cessation of hostilities permanently," Biden continued. Phase three would encompass "a major reconstruction plan for Gaza," according to Biden, as well as the repatriation of the remains of deceased hostages to their families. "The people of Israel should know they can make this offer without any further risk to their own security, because they've devastated Hamas over the past eight months."
Phase 2: "All remaining hostages? We just ran out of em"
or we claim they are dead like the bibas kids but we actually sold them or something
This just gives Hamas another opportunity to indoctrinate their population with hate so they can refill their ranks in 10 years and start another war.
exactly, actually this has happened before and many people don´t know it, in 1972 a palestinian terrorist organization called black september infiltrated the olympic games and murdered all israeli athletes (you can find the actual footage of them with guns and masks taking over the complex, it´s awful) israel launched an attack and ended that organization, when they left gaza in 2005 hamas took over, if israel retreats now (with ot without wiping out hamas) another terrorist group will be born, they can´t be given "freedom" because they are all radicalized since birth (source, the son of hamas who has explained how children are raised) and also because there´s plenty of footage of children being taught hatred towards the jews and the so called martyr cause, after 9/11 the US obliterated isis murdering millions in the process, no one ever told them to stop, hell we saw ukraine vs russia, more than 1 million dead already we never saw manifestations at the level we saw for palestine
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Don't get too excited, almost everything he said is a gross exaggeration over simplification or fabrication. For example, the rise of Hamas has absolutely nothing to do with black September's fall.
So what exactly are you proposing be done, if ceasefire/withdrawal is off the table?
Not who you asked, but the unconditional surrender of Hamas would work.
How is it that the US literally dropped two nuclear weapons on Japan and they don’t have as much hate for the USA as Palestine does for Israel?
Several things: The US reconstruction in Japan was sweeping and lasted almost a decade. The average Japanese citizen had a significantly higher standard of living a decade post-war than they did at the end of the war. US troops supplied massive food aid across the country. They **declined** to dissolve the well respected monarchy while simultaneously transitioning the actual role of government to democracy, including the enfranchising women. Established a constitution, abolished the state religion (enabling the still large Buddhist population to practice their faith openly), established labor standards and weakened large industrial conglomerates (ironically an attempt to weaken Japan's industrial potential but almost certainly having the opposite effect). They didn't just leave the Japanese people to live in squalor post war. It was possibly the greatest case of intentional nation building in history.
I don’t really see the Palestinians capitulating and submitting themselves to that degree of Israeli control though.
It seems like every wealthy nation should be doing this with every war torn one in the world. But maybe Japanese culture had something to do with it, too.
South Korea exploded into the modern era after some... tumultuous years following the war. But here we are now. South Korea during the Korean war was devastated.
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It requires a complete surrender on the part of the occupied country. I don't think we've really had a formal surrender happen like that for a long time, and it seems fundamentally incompatible with terrorist organizations
To give some good perspective, Japans generals wanted to keep fighting *AFTER WE NUKED THEM, TWICE*. Having an Emperor able to go over their heads and say "dude we just fucking lost" went really goddamn far.
"Fellas, we do not want a third one of those things dropped here."
"the enemy has begun to employ a new and most cruel bomb, the power of which to do damage is, indeed, incalculable, taking the toll of many innocent lives. Should we continue to fight, not only would it result in an ultimate collapse and obliteration of the Japanese nation, but also it would lead to the total extinction of human civilization." "it is according to the dictates of time and fate that We have resolved to pave the way for a grand peace for all the generations to come by enduring the unendurable and suffering what is insufferable" actual quotes (translated) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirohito_surrender_broadcast
The US wasn't just wealthy, it was one of the richest countries pre-war, and post war it was basically the only rich and powerful country that wasn't war torn, tired and traumatized, while also being owed monumental amounts of debt by every ally. Also remember this only happened because Japan was promised complete annihilation should they refuse to capitulate. You think rich countries should be promising complete annihilation at every country they capture that refuses to follow their every order?
> It seems like every wealthy nation should be doing this with every war torn one in the world. But maybe Japanese culture had something to do with it, too. That's called imperialism.
We essentially reformed their entire government and wrote complete demilitarization into their new constitution. It's actually apparently pretty hard to saber rattle when you're not allowed to own a saber. Metaphorically.
And to bring it around to this conflict, demilitarizing Gaza is a totally different beast since there is already effectively an arms embargo on them; everything they have is being smuggled in. And they have previously repurposed their own infrastructure into weapons, like digging up plumbing pipes to turn into rockets.
Yeah, it's the embargo and the construction of a friendly and effective government in tandem that made it work in the past. There's going to need to be a permanent presence willing and able to confiscate and dismantle smuggled/improvised weapons while rebuilding infrastructure and deradicalizing the population.
Because the US occupied Japan (and Germany) for a long time after the war and basically reconstructed a new democratic deradicalized state. That wouldn't be the case here. Hamas would remain in power, Israel can't reform their state nor deradicalized the population.
Germany fucked over France and they’re close allies. You can be horrible to each other but there’s gotta be a process to heal. Israel and Palestine have never done that.
Fundamentalist Islam is a hell of a thing.
Because Japan and Germany stood alone when they surrendered. Palestine/Hamas does not stand alone. They have billions of allies in 55 countries who support them in their fight against Israel
Japanese are not religious fanatics.
Keyword is *populated* Might exclude the Gazan border to Egypt and thus give Israel power over Hamas' smuggling routes they didn't enjoy since they left Gaza. This would be a long-term strategic win hidden in all the losses
This is exactly how I read it as well. Israel would presumably control a huge buffer area on the Egyptian border to prevent weapons smuggling. Also, given that the deepest smuggling tunnels under the border are thought to be 100 feet, it would not surprise me if Israel was to dig a trench 300 feet deep a half mile from the border. And then 6 months later dig it another 50 feet deeper.
Israel probably knows that.
Even if most of the hostages have been killed, the bodies need to come home. No one left behind. That said, to think of the prisoners released because of this, but hopefully this finally leads to the end of the Mardyr fund.
This feels like it’s going to end up just like post US Civil War reconstruction ended. Hamas is going to lose the war but win the peace. And that totally won’t cause problems for the next hundred years.
This isn't the first time. I'm not that old, but this is the third or fourth major flare-up in the area in my lifetime. Israel is basically a testing ground for "how do you stop ethnic group A from trying to murder another ethnic group B without killing everyone in ethnic group A" and it's kind of depressing that we don't seem to be getting closer to answering that. So yes, there's a certain risk of that, but more to the point, Hamas will attack again within ten years.
I mean we played that game at least twice in the last century, in Japan and Germany, and we created lasting peace there. But first, both countries had to be conquered completely.
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UN just said that Israel letting trucks with aid is not enough and Israel needs to secure the aid so it will get to its target. Yes the UN blames Israel for Hamas crimes
The UN is just following the rest of the world with not holding Hamas (the elected government of Gaza) accountable for anything. They don't have to protect their civilians, distinguish between military and civilian targerts, build bomb shelters, satisfy ceasefire conditions, ANYTHING. It's all on Israel, and if Israel does it it's apartheid.
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Israel and Hamas signed a ceasefire in 2014.
Yes and... How did that turn out?
Probably about the same way as a ceasefire will turn out now. Regardless, Hamas can evidently be sufficiently amnesic about their "goal to exterminate all Jews" to sign a ceasefire agreement.
Yea any peace will be temporary. Better than nothing, but that area is going to be a powder keg for the foreseeable future.
>but that area is going to be a powder keg for the foreseeable future. This has been the case since the end of the Ottoman Empire.
> Yea any peace will be temporary. of course its just a cease fire deal, not an actual peace deal.
They'll sign it and kill more Jews in five years, knowing the world will pressure Israel into another cease fire after they butcher and kidnap more civilians. [Edited for typing stuff]
>The group said it was prepared for a "complete agreement", including hostage exchanges, if Israel stopped the war from its side, however. Hamas is full of shit. They will start the war again if not now then in a few years.
And when they do, and Israel retaliates, we'll go through the same exact insane reaction. Terrorism is very effective
I don't even think it's that insane. The US started a war over a sunk ship (maybe even 2!) and another one over some fog that made vaguely Vietnamese noises. Israel has been undergoing attacks from Hamas for more than a decade since they pulled out of Gaza iirc. and haven't done much. this is a fairly common war by war standards. It's not especially brutal or cruel or anything. It's just war, and war sucks.
Biden is up for reelection now, not in a few years. That's all that matters
Hamas doesn't even know where the hostages are...
They'll just ask the UNRWA
Now watch closely as Hamas rejects the offer again. They don't want peace and they don't care about Palestinians - they want power for themselves and their primary mean to get it is to kill all the jews.
Or watch as they accept and break it within half a day.
The more Palestinians, the better for their cause... Sad fact but if people want Palestinians to have a decent opportunity to have some kind of normal lives, Hamas (leaders) needs to go.
Won't happen because the hostages are almost certainly dead.
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Hamas does not consider stopping the war right now to be in the best interest of Iran. So I really doubt they will accept a ceasefire.
Good luck trying to negotiate a ceasefire with terrorists who hide behind women and children.
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This deal sounds great for Hamas.