We won’t hear anything official about the F-16’s being in theater until it’s opportune. There will be leaks and I’m personally excited to see those aircraft seeding freedom all across the temporary occupied territories.
I'm suspecting something like a V1.
Cheap and easy to manufacture, given Ukraine's resources and technical knowledge and it could be easily be given an accuracy within 100 feet.
It's an ultra long range early warning radar, just meant to give S-300 and S-400 radars a heads up to be on the lookout for something.
In this instance, it's likely meant to help give the upcoming F-16s a bit more breathing room before being detected. Not really a game changer unfortunately, particularly given a far newer and more capable Nebo-M was destroyed in Crimea last year with no real battlefield advantage able to leveraged out of it.
It's been a year, and the frontline where the Nebo-M was stationed has actually pushed further into Ukraine. There was no battlefield advantage out of its destruction.
The same *MAY* not be true of this Nebo-SVU due to the addition of F-16s, but all the S-300 and S-400 batteries will still have their long range acquisition radars that are capable of tracking a combat loaded F-16, so that's a fairly slim possibility.
What makes you so confident that there was no battlefield advantage from the crimea Nebo-m? In the past year the number of drone and missile strikes on Crimean ports and airfields have increased. Maybe it’s unrelated, maybe it’s not, I’m not qualified to confidently say either way.
I really doubt the NEBO system is that capable, they market it heavily as an anti stealth radar based off a very lucky shoot down of a F117 by the P-18. Same concept, low frequency radars can detect stealth but can’t provide a track.
They make their claims based off stealth technology with its bomb bay doors open from almost 5 decades ago.
Edit: Ukraine just released satellite imagery of a NEBO-M radar installation destroyed by ATACMS in Luhansk.
LOL.
I have a feeling that taking out the Nebo-M in Crimea last year did help enable a number of the Storm Shadow strikes in and around Sevastopol. It may have also forced them to deploy their A-50's more forward, two of which they also lost.
Nebo svu is vertically polarized which is bad news for stealth. It is a big deal when these are taken out.
[source one](https://www.sandboxx.us/news/how-effective-is-russias-nebo-m-counter-stealth-radar/)
[source two](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebo-SVU)
Edit: [better one](https://ausairpower.net/APA-Nebo-SVU-Analysis.html)
> which is bad news for stealth
Says who?
> Igor Krylov at NNIIRT. He was interviewed by Russian television in 2002, cite: "We can see the Stealth [F-117A] as clearly as any other plane"
> Viktor Ozherelev, head of NNIIRT's department of scientific and technical information, stated: "Now even the Americans have begun to make such [VHF] radars as well, as they understand that their 'stealth' program has failed. These radars can detect aircraft constructed using 'stealth' technology. We have a number of prospects who want to procure a metric band radar."
Oh, Russian "techs". Sounds trustworthy.
> Russia claims the low-frequency arrays leveraged by the Nebo-M can detect the F-117 Nighthawk at a range of 350 kilometers (217 miles) in an environment free from electronic warfare (EW), and potentially as far as 72 kilometers (45 miles) under heavy jamming. This detection range is the basis for many S-400 counter-stealth claims, but it fails to acknowledge the difference between detecting a stealth fighter and targeting one.
> The figures above represent the detection range for the S-400 system’s low-frequency radars versus the F-117, which offers an RCS that’s approximately 30 times larger than the F-22 and at least twice the size of the F-35. As a result, both detection and targeting ranges for these more modern fighters will be reduced dramatically.
> Based on assessments, the S-400 can target aircraft like the F-35, but likely not until the jet flies within 20 miles of the system.
So, not really that bad news for any of the modern stealth aircraft.
Typically, a SEAD mission (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) is conducted in close coordination with friendly air assets. Surfacr-to-surface fire support (cannons, mortars, rockets, missiles) neutralize air defense artillery or air defense detection equipment, while friendly aircraft is in a holding pattern out of range of enemy air defense systems. When the surface to surface strike is completed, friendly aircraft synchronize their ingress to the target area immediately after surface-to-surface fire support munitions impact the air defense systems. Friendly air assets neutralize the true target, and race out of the target area and into friendly skies, where they can be reasonably safe from enemy air-to-air engagements thanks to friendly air defense systems on standby, which in this scenario, would most likely be the air carrier that the hornets or other aircraft originated from. Surprisingly enough, maverick (top gun) depicted this fairly accurately. However, because this strike was conducted with drones, and because no friendly air followed, there will be no follow on incursion. By this time, the Russian Federation has already moved temporary air defense systems into the destroyed sensors area, and set up a hasty air defense identification zone to cover the the destroyed sensors radar fan.
Long story short? The potential for a subsequent strike was eliminated hours later, on the same day this sensor was destroyed, because there isn't a pilot who wants to fly in to air defense systems, even if they are less effective replacement systems temporarily covering for the repair of the one destroyed. Because they are still highly effective. How do I know? This was my job for many years in the Army.
It's an early warning nuclear ICBM detector radar. Basically it just put a blind spot on Russia's nuclear detection capabilities. They once said any threat to that capability would justify their use for nukes. Let's see what happens 🙈
A three day special operation, where Ukraine dropped to their knees, weeping tears of joy that they were being liberated from corrupt western ideals.
I don't know what type, or quantity of drugs one must consume to experience that kind of hallucination, but I would like to try.
Well Ghani had just fled Afghanistan with suitcases full of cash. How were they to know that stand up comedy requires immense bravery... I don't think you can laugh in Russia unless someone is suffering due to your actions.
"I don't need a ride... I need ammo" will go down as some of the greatest words every spoken at a moment they were needed.
Yeah, it’s up there with “blood, toil, tears, and sweat” and “we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields.”
They expected to see all the tanks and armored vehicles that vastly outnumbered anything Ukraine had at the time and expected Ukraine to roll over instead of getting destroyed. And it wasn’t a totally ridiculous idea. That is pretty much what happened to Crimea. There was political chaos in Ukraine at the time, but they rolled in and installed a puppet legislation that said Crimea was now part of Russia. And no one did anything. So Putin thought he could just repeat that.
Problem is, the first time he didn’t spend many months compiling an entire army along the border. This gave Ukraine enough time for America to import Javelins and other useful materials, train on those new weapons, and have America advise them on how best to defend against an army with superior numbers.
> expected to see all the tanks and armored vehicles that vastly outnumbered anything Ukraine
Do you remember when that line of tanks got stuck on the same road in the beginning and they got destroyed one after another.
Yes. If I remember correctly Ukraine were completely outgunned in that situation, but Russia employed horrible fighting techniques. Ukraine used Javelins to destroy the front and rear of that tank column, which trapped almost the entire thing. Then they could call in indirect fire on the rest, or reposition and fire more Javelins. A lot of that armor ended up being abandoned instead of destroyed.
Russia’s biggest weakness (at least early on) was that it didn’t really fight like modern armies. They rolled a bunch of armor together, but didn’t have advanced scout troops clearing the way of anti-tank units or have their helicopters providing overwatch. They would get their armor stuck somewhere and have to abandon it. That is how farmers end up hauling perfectly intact tanks around the country.
> That is how farmers end up hauling perfectly intact tanks around the country.
We should film a joke in the internet about a ukrainian farmer who doesn't want to lose his found prize.
TBF Ukraine has been getting NATO ready since the Obama years. That was Obama's response to Crimea, not escalation with Ukrainian army that was a shell bc of Putins cronies. But training, weapons, and integration w western intel for the day they needed to bring it all together
I think it was possible... did they know that US companies had already hardened the command and control infrastructure of Ukraine? And how much of Russian incompetence in the early stages was really down to sabotage? At the time it looked as though the Americans had cleverly led Russia into a trap they were preparing for quite some time in advance. The Russian campaign probably could have succeeded if not for those early interventions.
I'm only speculating, but we saw lots of examples of supposedly gross incompetence. It could be down to "Herp derp forgot about logistics" like people have been saying, or it could have been due to misinformation being put up the chain of command, saboteurs within the Russian army, etc etc. It seems likely because Ukraine and USA had clearly both been anticipating and cooperating on preparations for this invasion.
Like when they dug trenches in the red forest? I dunno man. I think they were just high on their own bullshit.
Russia thought it would roll through and dominate. They went straight for Kiev and couldn’t even secure the airport. They were absolutely sabotaged along the way but their big fuckups are their own.
Biden, more than anyone, should be applauded for his role in all this. It doesn’t get mentioned ever but he was put in charge of helping Ukraine after the invasion of Crimea. Obama sent Biden. They got American military trainers in, it’s honestly mind boggling how much they improved since Crimea. That was all Obama and Biden.
It’s no secret Trump was Putin’s attempt at removing the US from the Ukraine equation. He was impeached for it.
Biden called out every move early in the war. He shared intelligence openly with the public and Ukraine that the invasion was imminent, and even Ukraine thought otherwise at that point.
Biden has fought relentlessly for Ukraine, going back 10 years now. If they make it it’ll be in a large part because of Biden’s support.
Nobody talks about it. Shit doesn’t get more “presidential” than that.
Yeah I agree, Biden is very interested in Ukraine. Also Antony Blinken's dad was the US diplomat who went to sign the Budapest memorandum, so it's not like he's naive about what's going on either. Russia took a real good swing at dismantling the US State Dept but it's back online now. Even Zelensky seems like he was groomed for the role and not surprised by anything that happened.
Well sure but incompetence =/= sabotage. I mean you can say Russia sabotaged there own success due to incompetence and corruption but sabotage tends to imply more intent - hence i'd assumed there were factions in the Russian military that deliberately sabotaged their own military. I suppose there was in the sense that the intelligence that was passed regarding Ukrainian morale on was wrong - but even then that was more just to 'tell the boss what he wants to hear' rather then an act of deliberate sabotage.
I thought the whole campaign failed due to China telling Putin to wait until the Olympics were finished which by then the ground had thawed and with the mud season convoys had to travel into Ukraine by road and were easily blocked.
> Can you elaborate a bit on Russian incompetence caused by sabotage?
There was one big queue of tanks rolling in getting stuck on the same road and being destroyed one after another.
The same like when they invaded Crimea:
A weak Ukrainian response, a few strong words from the west and a more or less indifferent occupied population.
EU/NATO offered a ride , only one man made sure Ukraine initially fought back . If he hadn't fought back EU/NATO wouldn't have stood up against Putin at all.
Well they did come reasobably close to success with their initial 2 week plan. The Battle of Hostomel and the Antonov airport were key, if Russia succeed their, they probably would have won the entire invasion.
That'd be said, and as said even back in those first weeks, the chances of Russia successfully annexing Ukraine are now next to nil. Each day that goes on, the chance is less. And even if somehow they could pull it off at this point, like if Trump was re elected for example, and broke up NATO ending support, even then because of all the bad blood, Ukrainian loyalists and insurrectionists would be fighting Russian control for at least a 100 years, and it'll only cost Russia vast amounts of money to maintain control at this point.
Any sane or reasonable leader would cancel the invasion, or just get a white peace with some annexed lands. But Putin is a sociopath guided by his ego, who would gladly sacrifice a million Russians to look good in history books and maintain his billionaire lifestyle, so its not going to happen.
I don't think people realize this was a close run thing. Imagine if one of those saboteurs placed in Kiev had been able to kill or injure Zelensky. Even a few hours of chaos - generals or politicians bickering over who is in charge now - could have been fatal. Fortunately nothing like this happened, and Russian military capabilities are generally overestimated because of all the corruption and shitty leadership that waters down the recipe.
>Imagine if one of those saboteurs placed in Kiev had been able to kill or injure Zelensky. Even a few hours of chaos - generals or politicians bickering over who is in charge now - could have been fatal.
From the videos that I have watched over the years it seems like most of the initial defenders were actually not organised on any sort of larger scale. This means that what you postulated wouldn't have had the effect that you think it might have. The question is whether having anyone other than Zelensky at the wheel would have kept Ukraine as unified as it has been once the initial invasion had been blunted.
Russians have been swallowing their own propaganda for a long time. Some believed that they would be treated as liberators in Ukraine. That’s why they’ve been pushing the narrative that Ukraine isn’t a real nation, rather an invention of the West to sow discord in Russia.
Yeah all things considered the Soviet-Afghan War really wasn't that bad, I think people blame it for collapsing the USSR because putting the blame on Gorbachev's liberalization policies is seen as not being "pro-democracy".
>because putting the blame on Gorbachev's liberalization policies is seen as not being "pro-democracy"
The USSR was in a death spiral long before Gorbachev got into power.
The U.S. also fought significantly worse enemies with less funding, weapons, support, and training.
Technological advances also further widened the gap as the U.S. had advanced equipment while their enemy wasn’t even as well equipped as their Soviet-Afghan War counterparts.
The enemies the U.S. fought had far less allies and support compared to the Mujahideen that was heavily supported by the U.S., Pakistan, and many Western countries. Supported to the point where their undercover agents would engage Soviet troops.
The Soviets and U.S. fought completely different enemies.
I thought it'd be a combination of that and Chechnya. I knew they were fucked eventually when they went in but god damn was I wrong! I underestimated these tough, smart, quick and beautiful people so much.
I've always thought it's better to die early in such circumstances but if enough of you agree you might not have to die at all...
As counterintuitive as it may sound - the russian government falling apart would be a disaster for the entire world. Just imagine the chaos that would ensue if multiple local warlords, each claiming to be the successor to the russian government, end up having access to a portion of russia‘s vast nuclear arsenal.
Unfortunately, Russia is "too big to fail". While no doubt a major aggressor, Putin‘s government is still a rational actor concerning their vast nuclear arsenal.
It doesn't have to be like that though. Once Putin is deposed or shuffles off, the West can collectively support democracy and reform, giving resources to any politicians that are not terrorists, criminals or ex-intelligence.
The huge carrot that can accomplish this is normalizing and improving trade and investment with any friendly democratic regimes in Russia, while freezing out the terrorist and criminal backed politicians.
Yeah - a replacement of the current regime with a proper democracy would be great.
I am referring to the proposed scenario of "What‘s a Russia?", clearly indicating a complete breakup of the russian state. The idea of "converting" authoritarian governments to democracies through trade and appeasement clearly failed miserably. This is true even more so if they are local warlords with nukes.
Sure. But local warlords are a *lot* less likely to have the wherewithal, both in money and expertise to maintain nukes. It'd be a lot easier for international forces to pick off belligerent ones and make deals with compliant ones than dealing with a unified government.
It would almost take MAD off the table too, just dealing with smaller entities with less capabilities, not that I think Russia is still up to making MAD work in the way most people think. I think their capabilities are shrinking and shrinking, and they could take a lot of people with them but it would be a lot more one sided than most people are expecting.
nuclear ussr already dissolved, and skies didn't fall
though no one would get rid of nukes anymore after Ukraine scenario
talking about warlords it's current russia regime who keep raising ones + as small part of prighozhin convoy team (fracture of fracture of wagner) managed to size object 45 without a single shot (or maybe there was few but it was short), it kind of obvious current regime provide pretty much weak protection of nukes vs said boogeymans
The West couldn’t achieve that without outright invading the place / putting some kind of peacekeeping mission in place. There’s 100s of oligarchs and politicians who will be vying for putins position once he’s gone - odds are whoever ends up on top of that isn’t going to reform the country into a stable democracy.
> the West can collectively support democracy and reform, giving resources to any politicians that are not terrorists, criminals or ex-intelligence
They tried that shit in Afghanistan...the regimes almost never survive after the backer propping them up pulls out. You can't afford a fuckup of that magnitude though sitting on top of one of the biggest nuclear arsenals. Even a few rogue tactical nukes or spent fuel rods would be a nightmare in the wrong hands.
So you are saying we shouldn't pull out this time.
I agree. It worked with Germany and Japan. We are *still* there. As fucked up as I think the War on Terror was, I think we should have never left. You break it you bought it.
The thing about Japan and Germany is they stopped fighting, they surrendered. They *wanted* to reform for the most part.
There is no way Russians all lay down and take a NATO or EU backed regime to rule the country just like Afghanistan didn't. The occupation force would have to be massive to keep a lid on things, and most likely incite more resistance with its presence. Weapons are going to be smuggled in across their huge borders from China, North Korea, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Armenia, Belarus, etc. The big catch with democracy is they could also just referendum the western powers out and wipe out western legitimacy overnight if occupation continues or the referendum is sidelined artificially.
Afghanistan wasn't going to work out. Shit was corrupt all the way through, motivation was pretty bad, and the insurgents were getting stronger not weaker over time. Votes from pacifists don't do shit to warlords willing to fight.
I think you are kind of vastly understating how much Germany and Japan wanted to surrender. Laughably so.
Russians are also *mostly* poor developing world folks, with a huge amount of brain drain from people with more education and resources fleeing the country to avoid the draft. They mostly just want what everyone wants, to live their lives and raise their kids. They are currently pretty propagandized, much like, say, the German people or the Japanese were so long ago. But I don't think they are the diehards you are implying.
I think you are mistaking 'The Current Russian Government' for 'The Russian People'. And the Russian People don't want this heat.
No one wants to occupy Russia. But I think you don't understand something here. Russia is putting itself at opposition to not just the country it invaded, and not just the US. It's fucking around with dealing with a worldwide response. And that's not going to go well for ordinary russians.
Germany got shown the horrors of the Holocaust, Japan got nuked and the supposedly divine emperor himself told his people to stand down. Japan also happened to be an island, nobody is smuggling weapons in to stir shit.
Afghanistan had a majority of people wanting peace, but enough motivated people willing to fight and enough smuggling routes to keep them fighting.
> It's fucking around with dealing with a worldwide response. And that's not going to go well for ordinary russians.
That's the thing *you* don't understand. The worse it gets for them, the more nations turn against them, the more they get their backs pressed against the wall, the more they fight. Beaten down and angry people are the easiest to rally into resistance movements. China has almost the entire world aligned against their agenda, and they just double down on that sentiment to their people as proof the world is against their rise to power. Everyone in their area hates Israel's living guts but they just fight harder and crack down to the foundations. That message doesn't have to work for everyone, just enough people to fight.
It failed so abjectly in Afghanistan because *there is no Afghanistan* … the country effectively doesn’t exist other than as a descriptor of land borders. It’s just a bunch of unaffiliated tribes, who also mostly hate each other
> each claiming to be the successor to the russian government, end up having access to a portion of russia‘s vast nuclear arsenal
As part of their surrender, they should be required to dismantle their nuclear arsenal.
From the perspective of a nuclear power (especially with the ambition of being a superpower), surrendering their nuclear weapons is effectively equivalent to the destruction of their state. This would obviously be unacceptable for Russia - trying to militarily achieve this goal would very much warrant a nuclear strike according to MAD.
Let’s just keep it realistic. We all know that this will not happen.
I think the Achaemenid Empire’s invasion of Greece went much worse. The Mongol invasions of Japan were also a debacle. There have been some pretty bad ones, but this is one of the worst in a long, long time.
The Persian / Sassanian invasion of the East Roman Empire would have to rank up there as well.
One of the most brutal wars in history and accomplished nothing.
Yeah, but at least the Mongols got wiped out as a nomadic stepped people trying a naval landing and assault that got trashed by typhoons a thousand miles from their homeland.
Russia is getting their teeth kicked in during an armor/artillery showdown right on their border. They are supposed to be good at this, the Mongols were never supposed to be good at naval landings.
They wanted the entire country of Finland as evidenced by, well, pretty much everything but the most telling things were the Soviet Finnish puppet government they created and what happened to every other country under the Soviet sphere from the molotov-ribbentrop pact, (they were all annexed / conquered except for Finland).
I can't find the numbers quickly but I'm guessing Russia controls around 1/10 of Ukraine. Also Ukraine's losses sound like they're not far off Russia's losses, which isnt great for a defending nation.
I'd gladly lose 1/10 of my land to stay independent when the other option is becoming part of the Soviet Union.
So you're basically saying that if Ukraine would sign a peace deal now losing territory but keeping independence would be desirable outcome. When talking about worst outcomes for a bigger aggressor this is hardly it, there must be numerous times in history when a smaller force have repelled attackers completely and even got gains.
It’s quite different in this case because of the amount of people that are trapped in the occupied regions, or who already got kidnapped or deported (just as happened in the past… sigh)
The territory is not nearly so important to them as the people within it I think, if they could get all the people back I think concessions would be considered much more seriously. So long as they are also allowed to join NATO as well - otherwise they’ll just get invaded yet again, for even more land.
Absolutely not lmao. In ancient history it happened often enough that a much more powerful aggressor would see their army totally wiped out due to mismanagement.
For Ancient Rome, the battle of Carrhae and the massacre at Teoterburg Forest are much worse. I think the Soviet Winter War might be worse too.
Isn’t this supposed to be part of the 3 radar array that goes with the s400 that can supposedly detect an f35? Has it been proven to be a heaping pile of shit unable to detect even drones again?
"Aircraft type"--general aviation aircraft converted to robotic kamikazes. I find it very unlikely they could actually sneak through--but stopping them both requires seeing them and putting ordnance on target. They sent seven, we don't know how many got through. We have repeatedly seen that Russia has little air defense away from the battle area. In the old days that wouldn't have been a problem as it's very unlikely anyone would send out planes that couldn't make it home. (There was the Doolittle raid, though--the bombers couldn't return but could reach friendly territory.)
Now, however, low tech kamikazes have really changed the battlefield. And we have learned that our GPS-guided weapons need a redesign, they're too easy to jam.
F16s aren’t going to fly into Russia even with permission. For the most part the Ukrainian Air Force uses planes to shoot down drones and missiles. They are too important to risk like that. For CAS missions I expect they’ll be using glide bombs.
Yup, they will mostly sling HARMs and air to ground munitions, maybe also air to air when necessary (like for incoming cruise missiles to take some load off the SAMs)
Those are having a hard enough time with surface drones, who needs a $50m hammer when a 50k scalpel will do.
But yeah, that would be a better application for them. I expect they’ll be mostly AA.
As I said years ago when this all started, if Russia couldn't win in the first three weeks, the chances of them succeeding after years is almost moot.
It's next to impossible for the invasion to succeed at this point, but Putin's ego will not allow for a retreat, so I'm guessing the war continue for as long as Putin is in power.
Eventually, Ukraine will repel them.
It may be more about Putin's survival than his ego. It would be hard to stay alive after personally causing their military and people to be decimated for zero gain.
Technically ‘decimated’ means being reduced by 10%
But in reality the Russian forces are already reduced by over 50% so it seems. NATO will have a clearer picture.
> after which satellite reconnaissance detected that emissions from the system could no longer be detected.
We probably have been sending anti-military equipment to satellites recently to help counter little shit's invasion attempt. I didn't see that coming.
I love imagining Putin getting so angry he starts smashing up his office and rolling round on the floor screaming while his cronies try to slip out the room without being noticed.
Hey Russia, those drones?
They’re never going to run out of them. This will be your everyday until you abandon this war. There are numerous countries shipping these drones.
Well done, Ukraine.
And if I may add, FUCK ELON MUSK
[удалено]
Could be targeting Russian most expensive equipment that is most difficult to replace. But also yes.
Maximum inconvenience should be the goal until they can get in and do real damage. Chip away.
In the past hitting air defense sites was a precursor to the conversion of Russian ships into submersibles.
They didn't sink. They took on a special under sea operation very suddenly.
It was so secret no one knew it would be confused
More specifically clearing away obstacles before the F-16s come online later this month.
Ukraine has been destroying S-300, S-400, other numerous radars in Crimea for the last couple of months.
Hahaha, cobblers.
I guess they are prepping for a more active air campaign.
Those f-16s are getting close
The Ukrainian pilots have been training for months now, probably.
Think it was reported they started training last summer? not sure though.
Many (12 pilots iirc) have already finished the first phase of training in Arizona. I think they’re moving to the next phase in Europe.
Those are just the American trained pilots. There's more in Europe that have finished iirc ......
Holy shit. It’s coming. The F-16 is gonna change everything. They’re also getting waaay more himars soon too.
I'm thinking there will be a steady flow of pilots for at least until the war is over and Ukraine can train their own pilots.
Saw some fly over me in Scotland a few weeks ago. UK doesn't operate f16s so I assume it was a couple of ukranians getting their training hours in.
Those pilots have already flown there first mission.
We won’t hear anything official about the F-16’s being in theater until it’s opportune. There will be leaks and I’m personally excited to see those aircraft seeding freedom all across the temporary occupied territories.
I'm suspecting something like a V1. Cheap and easy to manufacture, given Ukraine's resources and technical knowledge and it could be easily be given an accuracy within 100 feet.
Just making it safer for those F-16s.
It's an ultra long range early warning radar, just meant to give S-300 and S-400 radars a heads up to be on the lookout for something. In this instance, it's likely meant to help give the upcoming F-16s a bit more breathing room before being detected. Not really a game changer unfortunately, particularly given a far newer and more capable Nebo-M was destroyed in Crimea last year with no real battlefield advantage able to leveraged out of it.
Leveraged yet*
It's been a year, and the frontline where the Nebo-M was stationed has actually pushed further into Ukraine. There was no battlefield advantage out of its destruction. The same *MAY* not be true of this Nebo-SVU due to the addition of F-16s, but all the S-300 and S-400 batteries will still have their long range acquisition radars that are capable of tracking a combat loaded F-16, so that's a fairly slim possibility.
What makes you so confident that there was no battlefield advantage from the crimea Nebo-m? In the past year the number of drone and missile strikes on Crimean ports and airfields have increased. Maybe it’s unrelated, maybe it’s not, I’m not qualified to confidently say either way.
I really doubt the NEBO system is that capable, they market it heavily as an anti stealth radar based off a very lucky shoot down of a F117 by the P-18. Same concept, low frequency radars can detect stealth but can’t provide a track. They make their claims based off stealth technology with its bomb bay doors open from almost 5 decades ago. Edit: Ukraine just released satellite imagery of a NEBO-M radar installation destroyed by ATACMS in Luhansk. LOL.
True but we also have to account for the six months of no supplies. It will be much more interesting what the next six months bring.
I agree with the other commentator. Who are you to say that and how could you know?
Also makes me wonder why the Ukrainians would continue to target these radars if it doesn’t really help? Are they stupid?
They're expensive and hard to replace, and therefore high-value targets. Russia has to pick and choose where to hide them.
I have a feeling that taking out the Nebo-M in Crimea last year did help enable a number of the Storm Shadow strikes in and around Sevastopol. It may have also forced them to deploy their A-50's more forward, two of which they also lost.
Nebo svu is vertically polarized which is bad news for stealth. It is a big deal when these are taken out. [source one](https://www.sandboxx.us/news/how-effective-is-russias-nebo-m-counter-stealth-radar/) [source two](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebo-SVU) Edit: [better one](https://ausairpower.net/APA-Nebo-SVU-Analysis.html)
> which is bad news for stealth Says who? > Igor Krylov at NNIIRT. He was interviewed by Russian television in 2002, cite: "We can see the Stealth [F-117A] as clearly as any other plane" > Viktor Ozherelev, head of NNIIRT's department of scientific and technical information, stated: "Now even the Americans have begun to make such [VHF] radars as well, as they understand that their 'stealth' program has failed. These radars can detect aircraft constructed using 'stealth' technology. We have a number of prospects who want to procure a metric band radar." Oh, Russian "techs". Sounds trustworthy. > Russia claims the low-frequency arrays leveraged by the Nebo-M can detect the F-117 Nighthawk at a range of 350 kilometers (217 miles) in an environment free from electronic warfare (EW), and potentially as far as 72 kilometers (45 miles) under heavy jamming. This detection range is the basis for many S-400 counter-stealth claims, but it fails to acknowledge the difference between detecting a stealth fighter and targeting one. > The figures above represent the detection range for the S-400 system’s low-frequency radars versus the F-117, which offers an RCS that’s approximately 30 times larger than the F-22 and at least twice the size of the F-35. As a result, both detection and targeting ranges for these more modern fighters will be reduced dramatically. > Based on assessments, the S-400 can target aircraft like the F-35, but likely not until the jet flies within 20 miles of the system. So, not really that bad news for any of the modern stealth aircraft.
What about the S500 and newer S600? The S300 and 400 are very old tech now.
that last link: war geeks are another breed
That entire site is incredible
This is why Russia are trying to attack from the North, to pull forces away from the south.
One thing for sure, it makes it easier to fly.
Typically, a SEAD mission (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) is conducted in close coordination with friendly air assets. Surfacr-to-surface fire support (cannons, mortars, rockets, missiles) neutralize air defense artillery or air defense detection equipment, while friendly aircraft is in a holding pattern out of range of enemy air defense systems. When the surface to surface strike is completed, friendly aircraft synchronize their ingress to the target area immediately after surface-to-surface fire support munitions impact the air defense systems. Friendly air assets neutralize the true target, and race out of the target area and into friendly skies, where they can be reasonably safe from enemy air-to-air engagements thanks to friendly air defense systems on standby, which in this scenario, would most likely be the air carrier that the hornets or other aircraft originated from. Surprisingly enough, maverick (top gun) depicted this fairly accurately. However, because this strike was conducted with drones, and because no friendly air followed, there will be no follow on incursion. By this time, the Russian Federation has already moved temporary air defense systems into the destroyed sensors area, and set up a hasty air defense identification zone to cover the the destroyed sensors radar fan. Long story short? The potential for a subsequent strike was eliminated hours later, on the same day this sensor was destroyed, because there isn't a pilot who wants to fly in to air defense systems, even if they are less effective replacement systems temporarily covering for the repair of the one destroyed. Because they are still highly effective. How do I know? This was my job for many years in the Army.
It's an early warning nuclear ICBM detector radar. Basically it just put a blind spot on Russia's nuclear detection capabilities. They once said any threat to that capability would justify their use for nukes. Let's see what happens 🙈
Not just ICBMs, it would be very useful to detect ATACMS and similar too
Space defense.
"a communication disruption can mean only one thing, invasion"
I can’t think what…
We all know what's coming.
What did Russia expect to happen?
A three day special operation, where Ukraine dropped to their knees, weeping tears of joy that they were being liberated from corrupt western ideals. I don't know what type, or quantity of drugs one must consume to experience that kind of hallucination, but I would like to try.
Well Ghani had just fled Afghanistan with suitcases full of cash. How were they to know that stand up comedy requires immense bravery... I don't think you can laugh in Russia unless someone is suffering due to your actions. "I don't need a ride... I need ammo" will go down as some of the greatest words every spoken at a moment they were needed.
Don't forget the dude can also do backflips. In HEELS.
Yeah, it’s up there with “blood, toil, tears, and sweat” and “we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields.”
Probably Vodka, and in large quantities.
They expected to see all the tanks and armored vehicles that vastly outnumbered anything Ukraine had at the time and expected Ukraine to roll over instead of getting destroyed. And it wasn’t a totally ridiculous idea. That is pretty much what happened to Crimea. There was political chaos in Ukraine at the time, but they rolled in and installed a puppet legislation that said Crimea was now part of Russia. And no one did anything. So Putin thought he could just repeat that. Problem is, the first time he didn’t spend many months compiling an entire army along the border. This gave Ukraine enough time for America to import Javelins and other useful materials, train on those new weapons, and have America advise them on how best to defend against an army with superior numbers.
> expected to see all the tanks and armored vehicles that vastly outnumbered anything Ukraine Do you remember when that line of tanks got stuck on the same road in the beginning and they got destroyed one after another.
Yes. If I remember correctly Ukraine were completely outgunned in that situation, but Russia employed horrible fighting techniques. Ukraine used Javelins to destroy the front and rear of that tank column, which trapped almost the entire thing. Then they could call in indirect fire on the rest, or reposition and fire more Javelins. A lot of that armor ended up being abandoned instead of destroyed. Russia’s biggest weakness (at least early on) was that it didn’t really fight like modern armies. They rolled a bunch of armor together, but didn’t have advanced scout troops clearing the way of anti-tank units or have their helicopters providing overwatch. They would get their armor stuck somewhere and have to abandon it. That is how farmers end up hauling perfectly intact tanks around the country.
> That is how farmers end up hauling perfectly intact tanks around the country. We should film a joke in the internet about a ukrainian farmer who doesn't want to lose his found prize.
TBF Ukraine has been getting NATO ready since the Obama years. That was Obama's response to Crimea, not escalation with Ukrainian army that was a shell bc of Putins cronies. But training, weapons, and integration w western intel for the day they needed to bring it all together
It’s what happened in Hungary in 1956.. It’s still surprising that Hungary is so pro-Russian.
I think it was possible... did they know that US companies had already hardened the command and control infrastructure of Ukraine? And how much of Russian incompetence in the early stages was really down to sabotage? At the time it looked as though the Americans had cleverly led Russia into a trap they were preparing for quite some time in advance. The Russian campaign probably could have succeeded if not for those early interventions.
Can you elaborate a bit on Russian incompetence caused by sabotage?
I'm only speculating, but we saw lots of examples of supposedly gross incompetence. It could be down to "Herp derp forgot about logistics" like people have been saying, or it could have been due to misinformation being put up the chain of command, saboteurs within the Russian army, etc etc. It seems likely because Ukraine and USA had clearly both been anticipating and cooperating on preparations for this invasion.
Like when they dug trenches in the red forest? I dunno man. I think they were just high on their own bullshit. Russia thought it would roll through and dominate. They went straight for Kiev and couldn’t even secure the airport. They were absolutely sabotaged along the way but their big fuckups are their own. Biden, more than anyone, should be applauded for his role in all this. It doesn’t get mentioned ever but he was put in charge of helping Ukraine after the invasion of Crimea. Obama sent Biden. They got American military trainers in, it’s honestly mind boggling how much they improved since Crimea. That was all Obama and Biden. It’s no secret Trump was Putin’s attempt at removing the US from the Ukraine equation. He was impeached for it. Biden called out every move early in the war. He shared intelligence openly with the public and Ukraine that the invasion was imminent, and even Ukraine thought otherwise at that point. Biden has fought relentlessly for Ukraine, going back 10 years now. If they make it it’ll be in a large part because of Biden’s support. Nobody talks about it. Shit doesn’t get more “presidential” than that.
Yeah I agree, Biden is very interested in Ukraine. Also Antony Blinken's dad was the US diplomat who went to sign the Budapest memorandum, so it's not like he's naive about what's going on either. Russia took a real good swing at dismantling the US State Dept but it's back online now. Even Zelensky seems like he was groomed for the role and not surprised by anything that happened.
Well sure but incompetence =/= sabotage. I mean you can say Russia sabotaged there own success due to incompetence and corruption but sabotage tends to imply more intent - hence i'd assumed there were factions in the Russian military that deliberately sabotaged their own military. I suppose there was in the sense that the intelligence that was passed regarding Ukrainian morale on was wrong - but even then that was more just to 'tell the boss what he wants to hear' rather then an act of deliberate sabotage.
I thought the whole campaign failed due to China telling Putin to wait until the Olympics were finished which by then the ground had thawed and with the mud season convoys had to travel into Ukraine by road and were easily blocked.
Given all that’s happened - I think it’s adequately explained by simple incompetence.
> Can you elaborate a bit on Russian incompetence caused by sabotage? There was one big queue of tanks rolling in getting stuck on the same road and being destroyed one after another.
A regular influx (few cups a day) of blackmarket-grade vodka will do.
Enough vodka you will believe anything
The same like when they invaded Crimea: A weak Ukrainian response, a few strong words from the west and a more or less indifferent occupied population.
[удалено]
EU/NATO offered a ride , only one man made sure Ukraine initially fought back . If he hadn't fought back EU/NATO wouldn't have stood up against Putin at all.
So effective was Putin’s propaganda…
Well they did come reasobably close to success with their initial 2 week plan. The Battle of Hostomel and the Antonov airport were key, if Russia succeed their, they probably would have won the entire invasion. That'd be said, and as said even back in those first weeks, the chances of Russia successfully annexing Ukraine are now next to nil. Each day that goes on, the chance is less. And even if somehow they could pull it off at this point, like if Trump was re elected for example, and broke up NATO ending support, even then because of all the bad blood, Ukrainian loyalists and insurrectionists would be fighting Russian control for at least a 100 years, and it'll only cost Russia vast amounts of money to maintain control at this point. Any sane or reasonable leader would cancel the invasion, or just get a white peace with some annexed lands. But Putin is a sociopath guided by his ego, who would gladly sacrifice a million Russians to look good in history books and maintain his billionaire lifestyle, so its not going to happen.
I don't think people realize this was a close run thing. Imagine if one of those saboteurs placed in Kiev had been able to kill or injure Zelensky. Even a few hours of chaos - generals or politicians bickering over who is in charge now - could have been fatal. Fortunately nothing like this happened, and Russian military capabilities are generally overestimated because of all the corruption and shitty leadership that waters down the recipe.
>Imagine if one of those saboteurs placed in Kiev had been able to kill or injure Zelensky. Even a few hours of chaos - generals or politicians bickering over who is in charge now - could have been fatal. From the videos that I have watched over the years it seems like most of the initial defenders were actually not organised on any sort of larger scale. This means that what you postulated wouldn't have had the effect that you think it might have. The question is whether having anyone other than Zelensky at the wheel would have kept Ukraine as unified as it has been once the initial invasion had been blunted.
Putin is not going to last..
They didn't realize how badly their army had rotted with corruption.
I really enjoyed the videos of “plastic explosive” that was wood blocks wrapped in paper.
They expected USA and Europe to stay away completely, I imagine.
Russians have been swallowing their own propaganda for a long time. Some believed that they would be treated as liberators in Ukraine. That’s why they’ve been pushing the narrative that Ukraine isn’t a real nation, rather an invention of the West to sow discord in Russia.
We all thought the ruzzians in afghan did badly.
Boi were we wrong. Afghanistan was Russia's BEST.
I mean they did decent in Afghanistan. 14k KIA over 9 years and most urban areas were under their control while foreign agents funded their opponents.
Now that much KIA is just a matter of two weeks.
Yeah all things considered the Soviet-Afghan War really wasn't that bad, I think people blame it for collapsing the USSR because putting the blame on Gorbachev's liberalization policies is seen as not being "pro-democracy".
>because putting the blame on Gorbachev's liberalization policies is seen as not being "pro-democracy" The USSR was in a death spiral long before Gorbachev got into power.
You mean it?
They did decent by what metric? The US were there with a similar sized force for twice as long and lost less than 2k to enemy action.
The U.S. also fought significantly worse enemies with less funding, weapons, support, and training. Technological advances also further widened the gap as the U.S. had advanced equipment while their enemy wasn’t even as well equipped as their Soviet-Afghan War counterparts. The enemies the U.S. fought had far less allies and support compared to the Mujahideen that was heavily supported by the U.S., Pakistan, and many Western countries. Supported to the point where their undercover agents would engage Soviet troops. The Soviets and U.S. fought completely different enemies.
I thought it'd be a combination of that and Chechnya. I knew they were fucked eventually when they went in but god damn was I wrong! I underestimated these tough, smart, quick and beautiful people so much. I've always thought it's better to die early in such circumstances but if enough of you agree you might not have to die at all...
🇺🇦Slava Ukraini!🇺🇦
The mujahideen didn’t have no F-16s, baby.
This must be the most disasterous war in human history for a larger, more "powerful" aggressor?
Hopefully it will be known as The Great Russian Blunder
Hopefully it will elicit questions like "What's a 'Russia'?"
As counterintuitive as it may sound - the russian government falling apart would be a disaster for the entire world. Just imagine the chaos that would ensue if multiple local warlords, each claiming to be the successor to the russian government, end up having access to a portion of russia‘s vast nuclear arsenal. Unfortunately, Russia is "too big to fail". While no doubt a major aggressor, Putin‘s government is still a rational actor concerning their vast nuclear arsenal.
It doesn't have to be like that though. Once Putin is deposed or shuffles off, the West can collectively support democracy and reform, giving resources to any politicians that are not terrorists, criminals or ex-intelligence. The huge carrot that can accomplish this is normalizing and improving trade and investment with any friendly democratic regimes in Russia, while freezing out the terrorist and criminal backed politicians.
Yeah - a replacement of the current regime with a proper democracy would be great. I am referring to the proposed scenario of "What‘s a Russia?", clearly indicating a complete breakup of the russian state. The idea of "converting" authoritarian governments to democracies through trade and appeasement clearly failed miserably. This is true even more so if they are local warlords with nukes.
Sure. But local warlords are a *lot* less likely to have the wherewithal, both in money and expertise to maintain nukes. It'd be a lot easier for international forces to pick off belligerent ones and make deals with compliant ones than dealing with a unified government. It would almost take MAD off the table too, just dealing with smaller entities with less capabilities, not that I think Russia is still up to making MAD work in the way most people think. I think their capabilities are shrinking and shrinking, and they could take a lot of people with them but it would be a lot more one sided than most people are expecting.
nuclear ussr already dissolved, and skies didn't fall though no one would get rid of nukes anymore after Ukraine scenario talking about warlords it's current russia regime who keep raising ones + as small part of prighozhin convoy team (fracture of fracture of wagner) managed to size object 45 without a single shot (or maybe there was few but it was short), it kind of obvious current regime provide pretty much weak protection of nukes vs said boogeymans
The West couldn’t achieve that without outright invading the place / putting some kind of peacekeeping mission in place. There’s 100s of oligarchs and politicians who will be vying for putins position once he’s gone - odds are whoever ends up on top of that isn’t going to reform the country into a stable democracy.
Russian people would probably not accept that as legitimate. It's like if maga was a country over there.
> the West can collectively support democracy and reform, giving resources to any politicians that are not terrorists, criminals or ex-intelligence They tried that shit in Afghanistan...the regimes almost never survive after the backer propping them up pulls out. You can't afford a fuckup of that magnitude though sitting on top of one of the biggest nuclear arsenals. Even a few rogue tactical nukes or spent fuel rods would be a nightmare in the wrong hands.
So you are saying we shouldn't pull out this time. I agree. It worked with Germany and Japan. We are *still* there. As fucked up as I think the War on Terror was, I think we should have never left. You break it you bought it.
The thing about Japan and Germany is they stopped fighting, they surrendered. They *wanted* to reform for the most part. There is no way Russians all lay down and take a NATO or EU backed regime to rule the country just like Afghanistan didn't. The occupation force would have to be massive to keep a lid on things, and most likely incite more resistance with its presence. Weapons are going to be smuggled in across their huge borders from China, North Korea, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Armenia, Belarus, etc. The big catch with democracy is they could also just referendum the western powers out and wipe out western legitimacy overnight if occupation continues or the referendum is sidelined artificially. Afghanistan wasn't going to work out. Shit was corrupt all the way through, motivation was pretty bad, and the insurgents were getting stronger not weaker over time. Votes from pacifists don't do shit to warlords willing to fight.
I think you are kind of vastly understating how much Germany and Japan wanted to surrender. Laughably so. Russians are also *mostly* poor developing world folks, with a huge amount of brain drain from people with more education and resources fleeing the country to avoid the draft. They mostly just want what everyone wants, to live their lives and raise their kids. They are currently pretty propagandized, much like, say, the German people or the Japanese were so long ago. But I don't think they are the diehards you are implying. I think you are mistaking 'The Current Russian Government' for 'The Russian People'. And the Russian People don't want this heat. No one wants to occupy Russia. But I think you don't understand something here. Russia is putting itself at opposition to not just the country it invaded, and not just the US. It's fucking around with dealing with a worldwide response. And that's not going to go well for ordinary russians.
Germany got shown the horrors of the Holocaust, Japan got nuked and the supposedly divine emperor himself told his people to stand down. Japan also happened to be an island, nobody is smuggling weapons in to stir shit. Afghanistan had a majority of people wanting peace, but enough motivated people willing to fight and enough smuggling routes to keep them fighting. > It's fucking around with dealing with a worldwide response. And that's not going to go well for ordinary russians. That's the thing *you* don't understand. The worse it gets for them, the more nations turn against them, the more they get their backs pressed against the wall, the more they fight. Beaten down and angry people are the easiest to rally into resistance movements. China has almost the entire world aligned against their agenda, and they just double down on that sentiment to their people as proof the world is against their rise to power. Everyone in their area hates Israel's living guts but they just fight harder and crack down to the foundations. That message doesn't have to work for everyone, just enough people to fight.
It failed so abjectly in Afghanistan because *there is no Afghanistan* … the country effectively doesn’t exist other than as a descriptor of land borders. It’s just a bunch of unaffiliated tribes, who also mostly hate each other
> each claiming to be the successor to the russian government, end up having access to a portion of russia‘s vast nuclear arsenal As part of their surrender, they should be required to dismantle their nuclear arsenal.
From the perspective of a nuclear power (especially with the ambition of being a superpower), surrendering their nuclear weapons is effectively equivalent to the destruction of their state. This would obviously be unacceptable for Russia - trying to militarily achieve this goal would very much warrant a nuclear strike according to MAD. Let’s just keep it realistic. We all know that this will not happen.
A lot seems to hang on democratic elections all over the world. I wouldn't count anything out.
hopefully it leads to the balkanization of Russia. they'd actually have to get their shit together and would probably become a useful member of the EU
They would most likely fall to fighting and nuke each other, which would be a terrible humanitarian disaster.
Why? What makes you think if that happened they would not conquer the territories they can and continue doing what they always have?
maybe on par with the disastrous Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05
I think the Achaemenid Empire’s invasion of Greece went much worse. The Mongol invasions of Japan were also a debacle. There have been some pretty bad ones, but this is one of the worst in a long, long time.
> The Mongol invasions of Japan Indeed, the Ghost dealt with them swiftly.
The Persian / Sassanian invasion of the East Roman Empire would have to rank up there as well. One of the most brutal wars in history and accomplished nothing.
Yeah, but at least the Mongols got wiped out as a nomadic stepped people trying a naval landing and assault that got trashed by typhoons a thousand miles from their homeland. Russia is getting their teeth kicked in during an armor/artillery showdown right on their border. They are supposed to be good at this, the Mongols were never supposed to be good at naval landings.
Worse than the Winter War? Seems like the Russians know how to lose
They lost a lot of troops and equipment but they got 1/10th our land area.
They wanted the entire country of Finland as evidenced by, well, pretty much everything but the most telling things were the Soviet Finnish puppet government they created and what happened to every other country under the Soviet sphere from the molotov-ribbentrop pact, (they were all annexed / conquered except for Finland). I can't find the numbers quickly but I'm guessing Russia controls around 1/10 of Ukraine. Also Ukraine's losses sound like they're not far off Russia's losses, which isnt great for a defending nation. I'd gladly lose 1/10 of my land to stay independent when the other option is becoming part of the Soviet Union.
So you're basically saying that if Ukraine would sign a peace deal now losing territory but keeping independence would be desirable outcome. When talking about worst outcomes for a bigger aggressor this is hardly it, there must be numerous times in history when a smaller force have repelled attackers completely and even got gains.
It’s quite different in this case because of the amount of people that are trapped in the occupied regions, or who already got kidnapped or deported (just as happened in the past… sigh) The territory is not nearly so important to them as the people within it I think, if they could get all the people back I think concessions would be considered much more seriously. So long as they are also allowed to join NATO as well - otherwise they’ll just get invaded yet again, for even more land.
They've already out-Vietnamed us pretty hard. It's nice to have given up the quagmire crown. Thanks, Pootie
They had already done that in Afghanistan
Pretty sure the Six Day War easily beats this.
Napoleon marched in to Russia with the combined armies of France, Austria, Prussia, and I think Spain. He suffered something like 90% losses.
He did at least result in Moscow being set on fire, so, cheers Napoleon
I mean Hitler/Germany in WW2 was pretty disastrous in the end. They had an advantage for awhile.
*cough*Vietnam*cough*
Absolutely not lmao. In ancient history it happened often enough that a much more powerful aggressor would see their army totally wiped out due to mismanagement. For Ancient Rome, the battle of Carrhae and the massacre at Teoterburg Forest are much worse. I think the Soviet Winter War might be worse too.
Not in the level of sinking Moskva in Black Sea but none the less another embarrassment losing hard to replace weapons system.
Isn’t this supposed to be part of the 3 radar array that goes with the s400 that can supposedly detect an f35? Has it been proven to be a heaping pile of shit unable to detect even drones again?
"Aircraft type"--general aviation aircraft converted to robotic kamikazes. I find it very unlikely they could actually sneak through--but stopping them both requires seeing them and putting ordnance on target. They sent seven, we don't know how many got through. We have repeatedly seen that Russia has little air defense away from the battle area. In the old days that wouldn't have been a problem as it's very unlikely anyone would send out planes that couldn't make it home. (There was the Doolittle raid, though--the bombers couldn't return but could reach friendly territory.) Now, however, low tech kamikazes have really changed the battlefield. And we have learned that our GPS-guided weapons need a redesign, they're too easy to jam.
Well after smashing it to bits, it’s not going to detect anything..
Hmmm, radar being taken out and f16s coming with permission to proceed into Russian territory - looks encouraging
F16s aren’t going to fly into Russia even with permission. For the most part the Ukrainian Air Force uses planes to shoot down drones and missiles. They are too important to risk like that. For CAS missions I expect they’ll be using glide bombs.
Yup, they will mostly sling HARMs and air to ground munitions, maybe also air to air when necessary (like for incoming cruise missiles to take some load off the SAMs)
And shoot down any Russian military aircraft in range.
If I was a Russian ship in the Black Sea I’d worried about the f16s.
Those are having a hard enough time with surface drones, who needs a $50m hammer when a 50k scalpel will do. But yeah, that would be a better application for them. I expect they’ll be mostly AA.
As I said years ago when this all started, if Russia couldn't win in the first three weeks, the chances of them succeeding after years is almost moot. It's next to impossible for the invasion to succeed at this point, but Putin's ego will not allow for a retreat, so I'm guessing the war continue for as long as Putin is in power. Eventually, Ukraine will repel them.
It may be more about Putin's survival than his ego. It would be hard to stay alive after personally causing their military and people to be decimated for zero gain.
Technically ‘decimated’ means being reduced by 10% But in reality the Russian forces are already reduced by over 50% so it seems. NATO will have a clearer picture.
With western help yes. The longer this goes on, the weaker Russia will get..
Ahhh, feels good, well done
I see no problem here
Russia is about to learn what FAFO means now that superior technology can cross into their path
I feel like with a little planning Ukraine should capture Moscow in 3 days.
I see what you did there…
A communications disruption can mean only one thing. Invasion!
Hello there Gov. Bibble.
This pile of wire costs $100 Million?
Yep, but now the scrap value is pretty minimal
I would love a good pile of wires
The more advanced/newer Nebo is sold for 45 Mio, so probably not worth that much. But still expensive and not easy / fast replaced.
Slava ukraini!!
$100 million could still mean you might get it for $10000 on Alibaba though..
Turns out that’s just a bail of chicken wire for sale… /s
Sounds expensive
Bang for buck. Good stuff. Let Russia burn
That’s a mighty big antenna array
Was…
little shit in kreml is getting russia bombed back to middle ages.
> after which satellite reconnaissance detected that emissions from the system could no longer be detected. We probably have been sending anti-military equipment to satellites recently to help counter little shit's invasion attempt. I didn't see that coming.
I nice feel good news story for a change
Were you under a rock yesterday?
Good good.
It's always a pleasure to see russia kicked in the wallet.
I love imagining Putin getting so angry he starts smashing up his office and rolling round on the floor screaming while his cronies try to slip out the room without being noticed.
“likely turned into a colander” lol
It looks a bit like the Angel of the North by Antony Gormley. Well, probably not any more.
A Big Win.
Hey Russia, those drones? They’re never going to run out of them. This will be your everyday until you abandon this war. There are numerous countries shipping these drones.
Can anyone explain how the missles got through?
I think they should hit all the radar sites at once! Even Stevie Wonder can see what’s coming next!
Go, Ukraine there’s a lot of us cheering for you.
Time for 99 red "balloons" to go by?
f16s be in da haus