This is a bit morbid, but apparently someone has been keeping a list of all of the Russian soldiers who have been filmed committing suicide after being wounded, usually by Ukrainian drones. They are up to 64 so far.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/wiki/list/](https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/wiki/list/)
Number 49 is particularly brutal.
Putin's time is running out.
Putin’s speech today was very weak. He confirmed what we knew all this time: russia’s invasion of Ukraine was driven by one goal - imperialistic ambitions to conquer Ukraine.
https://x.com/rshereme/status/1801783787983954038?t=DOC6pWaBLdJtX6CfT9qWQA&s=19
Russia has a FPV drone gap with Ukraine. (Assuming videos are released at similar rates).
That is great news. Both sides are using dozens a day. It wouldn’t surprise me if it increases to hundreds assuming both sides can produce enough.
Even each side using 1k+ a day would be just a small fraction of global production. (Shows how terrifying China would be in a war).
One piece of bad news is Russia is using a lot of lancets. I don’t think Ukraine has an analog yet.
https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1801810180029452742
There was some talk very early in the war so they much have had a few and the recent package was said to contain a bunch. One of the AA system destruction videos from a couple days ago someone mentioned this was probably a switchblade attack. it certainly didn't look like atypical FPV drone hit
New DeepStateMap update for today (after all!). Russia is confirmed to have taken some 2 km2 of Ukrainian territory today.
[About 1 km2 in Chasiv Yar direction](https://deepstatemap.live/en#15/48.6042/37.8856) (a forest between Bohdanivka and Kanal); However, they have been [pushed back about 1 km2 in Kliishchivka](https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/48.5427/37.9730), south from there.
2.4 km2 in Avdiivka sector ([towards Novopokrovske and Yasnobrodivka](https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.1464/37.5564))
Additionally, Ukrainians [have pushed back the Russians at Serebryanske Forest](https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/48.9747/38.1885), near Bilohorivka, by some 0.4 km2
[Ukraine Presents Versatile ARK-1 Robot that Offers a Multifaceted Defense Solution | Defense Express | June 2024](https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ukraine_presents_versatile_ark_1_robot_that_offers_a_multifaceted_defense_solution-10840.html)
*Ukraine is deeply committed to the field of robotics, dedicating significant time and resources to its advancement. The robotization is crucial for safeguarding the lives of Ukrainian defenders, Mykhailo Fedorov, Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, reports.*
*One notable development in this area is the ARK-1 robot. This compact, nearly silent, all-wheel-drive robot is utilized by the military for various missions. It can reach speeds of up to 45 kilometers per hour and is capable of delivering light ammunition, medical supplies, and provisions to forward positions. Additionally, it can operate as a kamikaze, targeting and neutralizing enemy equipment and fortifications. A key advantage of the ARK-1 robot is that its operator can control it from a safe distance of up to 20 kilometers.*
*The military has already integrated the ARK-1 robot into active operations and is planning future missions with its use. Notably, UNITED24 is currently fundraising to support the deployment of these systems.*
> At the #DefMin, Ministers addressed #NATO deterrence & defence and agreed a plan for NATO to lead coordination of security assistance & training to #Ukraine. In a more dangerous world NATO is stronger than ever, with more than 500,000 troops at high readiness.
https://x.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1801655523722543320
> Putin's comments today are:
> - NOT a peace proposal, but an ultimatum;
> - NOT based on the principles of the UN Charter as he tries to replace law with force, murder, and destruction;
> - NOT lawful because he demands that a sovereign country withdraw from its sovereign territory rather than withdrawing from occupied territories himself;
> - NOT legitimate because Ukraine is in full right to seek NATO membership after Putin scrapped all security treaties with Ukraine by invading us;
> - NOT serious but a mere smokescreen as he is nerve-racking because of the upcoming success of the Peace Summit to be held in Switzerland tomorrow.
> Everything Putin says about peace is nothing more than a PR stunt until he stops showering Ukraine with barrages of missiles and sending more cannon fodder to the battlefield.
https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1801722626655555773
Calling it a ceasefire only serves the interests of insidious Russian propaganda. It is a capitulation ultimatum, just the same as all of Russia's supposed attempts at "negotiations," going all the way back to the start of the full-scale invasion.
[Slovenia Sends Old Yugoslav BOV Armored Vehicles to Ukraine that Similar to Soviet BRDM-2 | Defense Express | June 2024](https://en.defence-ua.com/news/slovenia_sends_old_yugoslav_bov_armored_vehicles_to_ukraine_that_similar_to_soviet_brdm_2-10843.html)
*During the full-scale war of the Russian federation against Ukraine, Slovenia supplies Ukraine with rather exotic weapons that are currently used by the Defense Forces of Ukraine. For instance, we earlier reported that in addition to M-55S tanks and M-80A infantry fighting vehicles, Slovenia could also provide Ukraine with 200 Zastava anti-aircraft guns against the Shahed drones, as well as other weapons and ammunition.*
*However, it turned out that in early 2024, Slovenia also supplied Ukraine with a batch of Yugoslav-made BOV armoured personnel carriers. They are similar to the Soviet BRDM-2 amphibious armoured scout cars.*
*According to 24ur, Slovenia has handed over 20 BOV armored vehicles with 12.7 mm machine guns and three such armored vehicles with three-barreled M55 Zastava anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine.*
*24ur was the first to report about BOV armored vehicles from Slovenia in the Defense Forces of Ukraine. Another interesting fact is that these armored vehicles are quite rare in the Balkans.*
*According to the Military Balance 2023, at the beginning of the last year, the Serbian Armed Forces had up to 70 BOV armored vehicles of various modifications in service, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Croatia had 6 such armored vehicles, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina had 32 BOV armored vehicles in tank hunter version. At the beginning of 2023 Slovenia decommissioned BOV armored personnel carriers.*
*Serial production of these vehicles that was in the 1970s and 1990s, is not currently taking place. How Slovenia's BOVs are serviced within the Defense Forces of Ukraine is an open question at the moment. There is also the question of how the Defense Forces of Ukraine can use BOVs from Slovenia. So far, these vehicles have not been seen in combat footage from the frontline or in military trainings for new brigades.*
*There is an example when one of the mobile groups of the National Guard of Ukraine showed Romanian TAB-71 armored personnel carrier at its disposal.*
Latest 3-day Oryx update [musklink](https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1801664587994988593). Russian-Ukrainian losses followed by my speculation.
- tanks: 5-3
- IFVs: 17-6
- mobile artillery: 5-2
- missile anti-air: 4-2
This one isn't as good as the last but my general feeling is that ratios got a bit better since the US aid package passed. Russia also tried a big attack yesterday near Mariinka, it seems to have failed with decent loss numbers.
There's a new count by Jompy of russian storages using early 2024 images, and it looks like Russia only had ~1.2k decent condition BMPs left in storage. They could finally face serious problems in 2025.
Every week of little progress and solid vehicle attrition is bad for Russia. The window republicans gave Putin is closing.
If Trump wins, they should just say that Putin tried making Biden win so it upsets Trump and he wants revenge so he decides to continue aiding Ukraine.
>Ukraine turned to prisons to recruit inmates for the military as it continues to experience manpower shortages. The Kyiv Independent got access to two Ukrainian prisons, providing a glimpse into how the recruitment is going and how inmates feel about this new option.
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3kuvxnms6xs2a
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3l5DuYibqNQ
An important distinction is that Ukraine allows only non-violent offenders to join, unlike Russia where even Chikatilo could've joined the SMO.
In case you don't know who Chikatilo was.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Chikatilo
100% this is the distinction. I saw today a video a guy charged w ‘possessing arms’ in a UA prison wanting to fight for his country. Indeed, he felt like this was his life cause. 😢
Toward the beginning of the battle for Bakhmut, back when prisoners were just starting to be employed by Wagner, it was noted that they were some of the most motivated soldiers with the most to prove. I think that it could be a pretty huge benefit to Ukraine as long as they can avoid it turning into straight up conscription wasted on Storm Z style meatwave assaults.
> Ambassadors agreed in principle on the negotiating frameworks for the accession negotiations of Ukraine 🇺🇦 and Moldova 🇲🇩.
> The Belgian presidency will call the first intergovernmental conferences on 25 June.
https://x.com/eu2024be/status/1801690558316036166
Russia’s window on Moldova is rapidly closing. If they don’t get their attempt to disrupt the election there this fall to work, it’ll be hard.
The closer Moldova is to accession, the harder the EU will push back on meddling.
Doesn't Moldova having territory that's technically at war due to foreign occupation make it a messy prospect to get it into the EU unless they officially concede independence to that region?
Same with Ukraine for that matter
> Cyprus
Ah yes
The complete clusterfuck of a territory where both parties involved in the cultural dispute being NATO members is the only thing preventing them going to all-out war over it
If a foreign group is illegally occupying part of your territory you're technically at war with them because they invaded you.
Just like Ukraine is at war with Russia because Russia invaded them and started illegally occupying Eastern Oblasts
*"Russia always offers negotiations when it is struggling, when plans are falling apart, in order to buy time, regroup, correct mistakes, find a weak spot, and then strike again with renewed strength!" – Dzhokhar Dudayev*
https://twitter.com/golub/status/1801669978870919479
That was my first thought at Putin saying that
He's basically admitting that the Kremlin considers taking much more of Ukraine a lost cause and wants to try and cut a deal before he's driven out of what's already occupied on top of it
This has to be highlighted over and over, Putin is boxed in an he knows it, his attempt at "peace" is nothing more than a demand for Ukraine to surrender 4 of its Oblasts to the Vatnik Kleptostate, something that cannot be tolerated or allowed as this pattern of aggression has already been seen in Hitlers Nazi Germany and that ended in a world war. Putin's Vatnik Russia is a poorer more incompetent form of that but more importantly the only way to force him to capitulate is to give him nothing and take everything from him that he stole.
The only way of ending this war in Ukraine along with Putins Vainglorious Delusions is to break the back of his mafia state in Ukraine, it can be done, it's being done but only going in hard and giving Ukraine all the support it needs with no hesitation will this force him to end this and leave and as for any temptations for the Nuclear Threat that's been made clear already: They try it, they sign their own death warrants.
*This is about half of the pre-2022 Black Sea fleet vessels that have been damaged or destroyed so far by Ukraine via missile and drone strikes*
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1801699916672340200
Depends on how you count "Black Sea Fleet vessels". By my count, at the start of the war, the fleet had 30 "front line" (i.e. carrying offensive weapons capable of projecting force, e.g. Moskva, Admiral Makarov) vessels in the Black Sea, another 47 "second line" (i.e. carrying mainly defensive or short-ranged weapons, e.g. Minsk, Ivan Golubets), and 19 "auxiliary" (i.e. unarmed or only armed with machine guns, e.g. Ivan Khurs, Kommuna), for 96 commissioned naval ships. Plus a smattering of civilian vessels used to transport military cargo.
So the 24 damaged or destroyed vessels is more like 25% of the overall fleet. Which is still a hilariously massive loss rate.
First imagery of the airbase strike is out. Looks like multiple destroyed including a hit on a hanger that burned / blew up ( drone warheads not big enough to do that) and left aircraft colors visible.
https://x.com/bradyafr/status/1801629416545521924?t=HC5-2Xmfcwgd0z6Jlmkw1g&s=19
( drone warheads not big enough to do that)
Depends on which drone they used . I ran some numbers on the one they make out the kit airplane and discovered it had room for a couple of hundred or more pounds of explosives with the fuel on board to reach the range quoted. If less distance needed then even more bang can be packed.
Edit. A close up of the damage, with slightly better view showing the 2 aircraft still in it.
[https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1801642213752897706](https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1801642213752897706)
>Edit. A close up of the damage, with slightly better view showing the 2 aircraft still in it.
- The fact that a hangar roof was blown off - a strong structure designed to withstand strong winds and heavy snow, suggests that the explosions were substantial & likely damaged the planes below.
Could have cleaned it though. There is no way to tell, the images are 10 days apart. Just like the planes in the hanger could have been parked inside afterwards.
It would take too long for them to move 6 planes to another airbase unless they had prior warning before the drones were launched.
While it's possible a recon mission could have spotted preparations more likely someone in the AFU sold them info.
I'm pretty sure a previous attack failed to damage any aircraft. FighterBomber said the jets were moved out of the way.
A big problem with the long-range drones where I've seen experts talking, is that they are pre-programmed with coordinates.
If the target moves a few hundred metres then you're gonna miss.
The imagery this time looks more hopeful. 70 claimed drones, even on the expensive end, is maybe $10m. A single jet taken out is a win, especially if it makes them waste air defence ammo too.
Millerovo is quite close to the border, it wouldn't take much more than an hour.
Russia hasnnot been so great at protecting their assets without pre-planning, let alone in such a tight time frame.
[Ukraine returns 14 children from Russian occupation | New Voice of Ukraine | June 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-returns-14-children-from-russian-occupation-50427323.html)
*The Save Ukraine charity has secured the return of 14 Ukrainian children from Russia-occupied territory, Save Ukraine's leader Mykola Kuleba announced on June 14.*
*In a Telegram message, Kuleba said that two of the rescued children are orphans. All 14 children were returned over the course of the week. He recounted the story of two teenage girls, Alisa and Milana. Russian tanks had fired at their homes, forcing them and their families to hide and sleep in damp basements for a while. They witnessed Russian punitive raids, their parents were interrogated and pressured to apply for Russian citizenship.*
*“Rescuing each child is a difficult task, so every successful attempt is a small victory on the path to our common victory over the enemy,” Kuleba added.*
*He noted that their team has so far returned home 373 children who were either forcibly relocated to Russia or found themselves under occupation.*
*In 2023, the European Parliament reported that the number of illegally deported Ukrainian children to Russia could reach 300,000. EMPs believe that the forced relocation of Ukrainian children to Russia began in 2014, following the occupation of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.*
The cargo volume of the port of Odesa is back at 50% of pre-war levels, another failure of the Russian navy.
Russia left the grain initiative that limited the exports only to grains, which they constantly hindered by delaying the mandated inspections, but now without the initiative Ukraine exports everything and Russia cannot enforce the blockade anymore:
>As many as 46 million tonnes of goods, including agricultural products, have been exported through the ports of the Odesa region since the beginning of the year, a 70% increase compared to last year.
>"Despite the naval blockade and enemy shelling, we managed to reach 50% of the pre-war turnover today. Since the beginning of this year, 46 million tonnes of products have already been exported through the ports of the Odesa region - this is 70% more than last year's figure,"
`https://www (dot) ukrinform (dot) net/rubric-economy/3875042-46m-tonnes-of-products-exported-from-ports-of-odesa-region-this-year.html`
At NATO today to stress that UK support for Ukraine will never waiver.
https://x.com/grantshapps/status/1801600778026520790?t=xIKEb9dsmEo5yLgvtoP0dw&s=19
When discussions of Ukraine "trading land for peace" come up usually the reason Ukraine refuses to agree to a ceasefire is based on an unwillingness to surrender millions of Ukrainians to Russian domination as well as complete lack of trust that the peace deal would be permanent and not just lead to Russia restarting the war at their own convenience later on. These are the two most important reasons and a failure of outsiders to acknowledge this means that any ceasefire is unlikely no matter what supposed "realists" try to say.
That said there is also a lesser discussed third reason and that's simply that the Kharkiv, Kherson, the Donbas and Zaporizhia have the best defensive ground and that's where Ukraine has spent years fortifying. If Ukraine walks away from these Russian claimed areas (areas that Russia doesn't actually control) then stopping a future Russian invasion would be significantly harder. The Donbas was some of the hardest area to take in WWII as well as in Russia's 2014 invasion and 2022 full invasion. The Sudetenland had Czechoslovakia's best defenses in the 1930s and when they traded their best defenses for "peace" they got neither. Even if a future invasion failed Russia could always use the previous ceasefire lines as the basis for any future negotiations as well.
If Ukraine hands over the areas Russia has annexed they will doom millions of people to Russian oppression, it will not satisfy Russia's long term goals, they will not get the areas back and it will destroy Ukraine's future ability to resist Russian invasions. The people who propose this "deal" are either ignorant or not operating in good faith. There is simply no real way for Ukraine to trade land for peace. That "deal" does not exist.
i hate to say it, lots of Crimea and Donbas residents 'want to be part of russia.' be it pensions, trust, propaganda, but it is true. i am from both regions and have family in both. they like putin. he will absolutely use them as pawns, but lots of russians trust and 'prefer' russia. pensions, stability, a war like assertive attitude.
how much of that however is the miniprity being stirred up to seem larger than it is combined with Ukranians being displaced though? you're from the region, can you give an indication of that or is it those regions have always legitimately been majority pro russian regardless?
What are you talking about? Ukraine isn't giving up areas it controls. I know Putin said that but that's not happening. As far as areas already under Russia controls. The likelihood is that Ukraine will never recover those.
> The likelihood is that Ukraine will never recover those.
The same people who say that are the same people who thought Kyiv would fall within a few weeks. If Ukraine gets the quantity and quality of weapons needed they absolutely can break the Russian war machine and eventually get their land back. It won't be quick or cheap but it's absolutely possible and depends largely on the political will both within Ukraine and within the countries supporting Ukraine.
Nobody said there is no scenario in which that is possible. We are talking probability here. And the probability of them getting everything they need is already low. Next is the probability of if they get everything they need being able to put together credible combined arms offensive to break entrenched Russian lines. They have not shown the ability to do that and, the capacity to do that in doubtful bc its very hard. The probability of both of those happening is extremely low.
Russia's currency is literally at the mercy of China now. Killing a bunch of invaders isnt the only way to win the war. Bleeding them out over time can lead to a collapse at the front. Is it likely? Who knows. But I definitely wouldnt say "The likelihood is that Ukraine will never recover those." Ukraine still has the support of the west and it has only picked up recently after US republicans stopped dragging their feet. Russia is crumbling, their "allies" of north korea and china are just using this to get the best deals they can. It's unsustainable.
You're making a lot of unfounded assumptions and speculations with very little evidence and then trying to pass that off as sober and rational analysis.
Right now the Russian lines are holding because Russia can still maintain sufficient amount of artillery fire and send sufficient numbers of tanks, armored vehicles and other heavy weapons to the front meanwhile western production and supply isn't at the pace needed to truly give Ukraine a material advantage as of today. The problem for Russia is that their current advantage comes largely from stockpiles and much less from new production whereas the west can outproduce Russia but doesn't have the massive stockpiles. If the current trends continue Russia's combat effectiveness will drop and Ukraine's combat effectiveness will rise until eventually Russia is unable to compete (and no Ukraine doesn't need to master combined arms warfare for this to happen).
You can speculate and say "the current trend will shift in favor of Russia" but that's just speculation. If NATO countries stop passing these large aid bills that we've seen in 2022, 2023 and 2024 then Ukraine is unlikely to recover their land. If the aid bills continue and the quality of arms keeps increasing then the situation will grow increasingly dire for Russia.
You are making the same amount of unfounded assumptions. You are assuming that funding for Ukraine will continue at least at present levels and will increase, essentially indefinitely. You are assuming that Russian combat effectiveness will decrease while in fact, in many respects it has increased. There have been many reports that Russia has improved its EW capabilities, that they have significantly degraded Western precision weapons. Most importantly, you are confusing the very important distinction between offense and defense. Ukraine has a vast attritional advantage now mostly bc its defending and Russia is attacking. Once Ukraine goes on offensive, which they must do to recover lost land, Russia will gain the defensive advantage. Yes, Russia is losing a ton of vehicles etc and everyone points out that they will eventually run out...and they may...but that is for offensive operations. They can effectively freeze the front lines, bunker behind their minefields and then the vehicles don't matter much. Ultimately, Ukraine has a much smaller population, the war is being fought almost exclusively on Ukrainian land, and it can afford to lose far less people than Russia.
Ukraine already kind of did that with Crimea in 2014. They kept fighting the civil war against DPR and LPR, but never tried to move the war into Crimea.
Not having the capacity is not the same as formally surrendering territory. And at that point Russia had lots of capability to escalate, whereas now they are already throwing in everything they have.
That's part of it. There are also a lot more points you could go into but I'd agree that Russia "projecting strength even while weakening" is certainly part of how they operate. It also has some upsides for Russia given that the view "Ukraine can't win a long war" has contributed to significantly slower aid provided by the west. If western leaders and voters had bought into the idea that Ukraine could win starting in March then the war would have taken on a whole new dynamic and possibly have been over by now.
> I arrived in Switzerland for the Global Peace Summit. There will be two days of active work with countries from all parts of the world, with different nations that are nonetheless united by a common goal of bringing a just and lasting peace in Ukraine closer.
> The Peace Summit will provide an opportunity for the global majority to take specific steps in areas that matter for everyone in the world: nuclear safety, food security, and the return of prisoners of war and all deported persons, including deported Ukrainian children.
> Around 100 countries and international organizations are set to participate in the summit. I am grateful to everyone who chose to attend and demonstrate global leadership and commitment to peace, international law, and the UN charter.
> Together, as responsible global majority, we must make every effort to ensure that wars, aggressions, and colonial occupation can be ended and that they will never repeat. I am certain that everyone in the world is interested in just peace and respect for every nation.
> This is why the summit is designed in such a way that each nation has the opportunity to demonstrate leadership in achieving shared goals. The voice of the responsible global majority has the potential to bring peace closer and restore full force to the UN Charter. #PathtoPeace #PeaceforUkraine
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1801642229330505880
They tried a concern troll post last night and they got busted busted busted lol. So now it's the good old pollute the sub with repugnant crap so nobody wants to read it (with a little "the west is weak and divided" because hey, quotas.)
> because Putin didnt want to freeze the war at the lines we have now.
I don't think Ukraine would have agreed to that proposal anyway. They know that Russia wants to completely destroy Ukraine so any ceasefire is just a mechanism for Russia to rearm and then try again when there is a more favorable political climate in western countries and as a result Ukraine has taken the stance of "no ceasefire" which is reasonable to me.
I agree with you. But Ukraine cant stand alone, If the aid its cut, they are fucked.
We both know this.
Ukraine has a very hard path, use diplomacy but also show how the west is not doing enough, and it worked.... i am also guessing they promised some ressources after the war to.
The sad thing is that ukraine can win with just weapons, they dont really need soldiers and we cant even do that right. But If we keep doing this bullshit, of playing games with weapons, yes they will need soldiers.
What does Putin's statement on peace talks mean - the day before the Swiss peace summit and right after sanctions were imposed on the Moscow Stock Exchange?
◾️ Basically, Putin recognized that he could not achieve his goals in the war with Ukraine militarily - the Russian Armed Forces are currently unable to capture major Ukrainian cities: neither Zaporizhzhia, nor Kherson, nor even the cities of the Donetsk region.
◾️ Putin also made it almost directly clear: sanctions are very painful for the Russian Federation, which is why he wants them lifted.
◾️ Putin is unable to do anything to counteract NATO's expansion: as a result of the war, the border between Russia and NATO has become much wider, and it is increasingly difficult for the Russian army, weakened by more than two years of war, to "hold the perimeter"
◾️ The Russian population's demand for peace is about 70% - this is how many Russians are ready to support Putin's decision to end the "SMO." Moreover, a significant part of the population (20-25%) is ready to support stopping the war on any terms.
◾️ The flow of Western arms to Ukraine has resumed, and long-term contracts are being signed. F16s are coming soon.
◾️ Ukraine has been allowed to strike Russian territory with Western weapons.
◾️ Russia has an obvious manpower problem. If the war continues, Putin will be forced to conduct mobilization, which is unpopular among Russians.
◾️ China is blatantly taking advantage of Russian weakness.
◾️ Trump is a "dark horse" for Putin. His actions are unpredictable.
◾️ Sanctions are becoming really sensitive and will be extended. Among other things, the tanker fleet will fall under them. This will leave the Russian Federation without key budget revenues from oil trade.
◾️ Based on all this, Putin has stepped up his rhetoric about negotiations and freezing the war. Today, his initiative may look like a proposal from a position of strength, but I am sure he will go down in history as the man who finally brought down the "Russian empire."
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1801622942150692868?t=lo1utFUlJhhea6QRHnW-sA&s=19
The more RU talks about freezing things, the closer we all are to the end. This is a harbinger of strategic culmination.
You heard it from Putin himself - the only way to get them out of occupied territory is to physically beat them out. Western countries better start planning accordingly. The frog is boiling, now toss in some Sodium to drive the point home.
"Putin demands the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, after which peace negotiations can begin."
link: [https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/russias-putin-outlines-conditions-for-peace-talks-with-ukraine.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/russias-putin-outlines-conditions-for-peace-talks-with-ukraine.html)
\^That sounds like the same garbage we've been hearing for years now. No change in the rhetoric whatsoever
> The more RU talks about freezing things, the closer we all are to the end. This is a harbinger of strategic culmination.
I don't think this is necessarily true. Sometimes Russia can talk about freezing the war because they know Ukraine won't (and shouldn't) agree to it. That way when the "peace talks" fall through Russia can pretend like they are the reasonable ones.
it is part of pretending they did not invade unilaterally and blaming ukraine by sharing responsibility for 'both sides' fighting each other. ukraine had no role in the fighting, so stopping is up to russia since they started it. it is more FSB gaslighting
> The Russian population's demand for peace is about 70% - this is how many Russians are ready to support Putin's decision to end the "SMO." Moreover, a significant part of the population (20-25%) is ready to support stopping the war on any terms.
I'm sorry, but this sounds like bullshit. Nothing we see from the general Russian population hints at this.
Many Russians consider the invasion a mistake. Unfortunately, most of them believe that losing the war would be worse than continuing it. To counter that, Ukraine and its allies need to show that Russia will inevitably lose in a way that the Russian can't explain.
I mean the way it's currently going is great. With the latest sanctions Russia is so much more at the mercy of China now. As their economy crumbles more and more at some point they will realize that this might end in a way that ends up much much worse for them than simply ending it on any terms right now. You basically have to promise that their future will be a living hell if they continue the war. The US finally getting that aid package done and other countries jumping back on board in the last few weeks is the first step towards that.
Any polling taken in Russia needs to be treated with extreme caution and even then the normal caveats of polling still apply. For instance if the question asks "if the Russian government ended the war in Ukraine would you support that decision" and the answer is "overwhelmingly yes" then that's very different than a question that asks "do you oppose the Russian government continuing the war." Of course if someone is trying to drum up a news story that shows Russians actually hate the war they might take the first question as indicative of opposition to the war.
It's not bullshit but it's more like "70-80% of Russians will accept peace if they keep occupied territory" as in actually win the war.
Geraschanko is an arm of Ukrainian propaganda, he only posts positive stuff or puts a positive spin on negative stuff.
[President Zelensky arrived in Switzerland for the Global Peace Summit](https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/14-june-president-zelensky-arrived-in-switzerland-for-the)
it looks like the tipping point has been reached..
in the last month or so the west had donated about 600-700 armored vehicles.. spain, france, baltics, UK, US, etc....
1000+ support vehicles.. japan sent 110 this month alone with many more to come
50,000 more drones of all sizes... 50K
production is ongoing and increasing in ukraine for armored vehicles..
thousands of ATGMs are headed to ukraine..
3 times more aircraft are headed there than russia can make in 5 years... us, france, and Argentina... Argentina!!!!
5-6 long range ADA systems are headed there
so please tell me again, is russia winning?
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1801638886977757430?t=Tnl3SG5MDl2MNPTH7SHtXg&s=19
All this, along with their own production capabilities being brought back online, Ukraine is going to have one of the most formidable armies in the world.. right.. next.. door.. to Russia.
Well done, Putin.
They took a long time to be delivered. They were pledged over a year ago. I’m unsure if it’s the only instances.
They were unarmored military vehicles. Think humvees/G-wagons.
Plus some tracked engineering vehicles.
RU may be bigger than UA, but not even close to bigger than 3/4 of the industrialized globe set against them.
Unless you count raw land I guess.. Not exactly the key success metric I would select in this case.
RU is hosed, only question is their stubborn self-imposed cost to get there.
Make sure to not delude yourself. Russia may be horribly outclassed by any economic metric, but all of those metrics have to be multiplied by an engagement factor. That factor is MUCH higher for Russia and has some potential to drop significantly come november.
*RU is hosed*
I'm going to believe that when said aid starts translating to widespread, offensive, battlefield victories. And we still got a ways to go on that one.
> RU may be bigger than UA, but not even close to bigger than 3/4 of the industrialized globe set against them.
To put things in perspective .... Western defence budget (NATO + allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia and others) is around the amount of the Russian GDP. So.... how the fuck did Putin think he can fight the West? With what?
He didn't plan to still be fighting. The might of Russia would cause Ukrainian resistance to quickly collapse long before the west could respond. Assisted by stooges in and outside of Ukraine who would slow and complicated any response.
Endless respect for all Ukrainians who looked at an army much bigger than theirs and resolved to fight regardless. Which is what exposed Putin's serious miscalculation and the flaws in the illusion of Russian military might.
That comparison is an over-simplification of the problem. Most of that budgetary difference is spent on research and development and personnel wages, not on raw war material like shells and missiles. Western nations have much higher wages for military personnel, and huge chunks of our military budgets are spent on pensions for retired personnel.
Even after removing those massive pieces of the pie from the budget, overall Western military expenditures on weapons procurement is still dramatically higher than Russia, but a lot of what's left is spent on advanced, cutting-edge weapons like the latest generation of cruise missiles, satellites, stealth aircraft and naval assets. Most of these weapons are built only in enough quantities to defend Western countries from a direction confrontation with Russia or China, so they are not on the table to be donated to Ukraine.
The whole reason Russia is able to compete in this war at all is because we aren't producing the same raw war material that Russia and Ukraine are consuming in vast quantities, and it is very time-consuming to set up production for those cheap materials. Russia already has the infrastructure to pump out tanks, IFVs, artillery, and ammunition. We don't. We can set up that infrastructure, but it takes 3-5 years to get it rolling on the conservative side.
Now that the war is nearly 2.5 years old, some of those production lines are finally starting to pump out decent numbers. It'll still take another two years for us to catch up to Russian production rates though.
The other cost of these measures, however, is political willpower, and that part is more of a wild card. A lot of Western voter bases are simply not willing to spend extra taxes on war material. Cold War-level commitments for 2+% GDP spending on military armaments is a tough sell for most NATO members even today, this deep into the Ukraine War.
When the war started NATO's GDP was about 20 times that of Russia. I think it's currently about 26 or 27 times that of Russia and that doesn't even factor in Ukraine itself or other NATO aligned countries which are supportive of Ukraine.
There's been a lot of discourse that "Ukraine can't win a long war against Russia" which I think is absolutely BS. It falsely assumes that Ukraine's strategy would always be to match Russian manpower 1:1 and sustain casualties with Russia at a 1:1 rate and that Russian will to fight is equal or greater than Ukrainian will to fight. Rather I think a better way to look at it is that Ukraine's allies have the ability to arm Ukraine to the point where Russia would be facing a significant disadvantage on the battlefield and if western will to support Ukraine remains strong and Ukrainian will to keep fighting endures then it creates a situation where Russia can not win long term.
The Russian defenses are strong enough that they are likely going to prevent Ukraine from winning a war of maneuver in the short term. That much is clear. There is a danger though that people look at the Russian defenses and say "this means Ukraine can't get back their territory" and I think that logic is very flawed.
What matters now is ability to generate combat effectiveness, replace losses and keep the guns running. There was a time when the Hindenburg line was effectively impossible to penetrate in WWI but eventually Germany was unable to keep pace with Entente firepower and manpower and so the line crumbled. The Russian defenses are largely holding because their rates of fire are sufficiently high and they can still send enough tanks, armored vehicles and infantry to the line to make Ukrainian advances too costly to be worthwhile. If Ukraine gets the weapons they need in the quantities they need then the balance will swing the other way and Russia will be unable to move their forces into an area of the front without being ripped apart by shelling. This process is not going to be cheap or short but ultimately it's a war that can be won by production. In the long term that favors Ukraine if support holds.
> When the war started NATO's GDP was about 20 times that of Russia. I think it's currently about 26 or 27 times that of Russia and that doesn't even factor in Ukraine itself or other NATO aligned countries which are supportive of Ukraine.
To put it in another perspective .... the West spends just on defence around as much as the total output of the Russian economy.
Going from 2% to 4% wouldn't even make a dent in the West and that would be TWO Russian economies per year for defence.
Yep. Obviously there are also a lot of caveats. It's much cheaper to produce weapons in Russia than in western Europe or North America, Russia will spend a larger portion of GDP on the war than NATO will, Russia doesn't have the same commitments to other parts of the world and can use a larger percentage of the weapons available to them on this war.
Even with those important caveats though the west still comes out on top. The west has the resources to essentially fund Ukraine indefinitely while Russia doesn't have the resources to fight this level of war indefinitely. Every single year that passes the gap between Russia and NATO just grows larger as well economically and even if Russia can seize some territory it's not nearly economically productive enough to make up for the cost of taking it.
Russia also doesn't have deep meaningful alliances in the same way the west does. Democracies can stick together because trade enriches all and they have a common interest in building international partnerships that mutually benefit them. This isn't the case with Russia's allies. Countries like China and Iran may be pointing their guns in the same direction as Russia today but long term they are both threats to Russia and threatened by Russia. They are Russian allies but not trustworthy allies. The Sino-Soviet split was one of the factors that resulted in the USSR losing the Cold War and in the 21st century neither Moscow nor Beijing is interested in being the other's puppet. Contrast that relationship with Washington-Ottawa or Berlin-Paris and it's a pretty glaring Russian weakness long term.
Feels like there's just this big delay between when plans get made and when they turn battlefield conditions around so much that Ukraine can regain territory.
To me it feels like shit should really hit the fan when Russia runs out of stockpiles of artillery barrels and high quantity vehicles like that where they don't have close to the capacity to make new stuff as quickly.
Footage emerged from the repelled attack near Heorhiivka by the 46th Air Mobile Brigade. In total, 13 pieces of heavy Russian equipment were destroyed.
Well done guys!
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1801638133324284293?t=P_HrR5FOCSDJsMHor2lUEg&s=19
The fact that 2 vehicles are driving on the same road, the front gets blown up and the latter one just keeps moving and then gets blown up in the same spot just does it for me.
The aftermath of Ukraine's recent strike on Morozovsk air base in Russia is visible in new satellite imagery.
The base was last struck by Ukraine earlier this year in April.
https://x.com/bradyafr/status/1801629416545521924?t=pXuLCKqt7mlWkGW5ffhCXA&s=19
Highly detailed footage of a Russian BMP-2 with MEAT protection on top, receiving a straight hit by an FPV drone. The crew runs, but are hunted down by drones. The BMP-2 itself is finished off in the end.
This is how warfare in 2024 looks like. Work by the 43rd Mechanized Brigade.
NSFW
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1801634365358645694?t=xKCjL40gmCNlHHr35oy7Nw&s=19
Holy crap that is brutal.
I support the Ukrainians defending themselves from enemies invading their country, but it's still hard to watch people get hunted down like this, no matter who they are.
When the alternative is them being alive to threaten Ukrainian lives this is an acceptable outcome. They have a clear path home and the security of Russia is not under any real threat.
... I've gotten sort of used to it. Watching Russians hug grenades to end themselves is mostly mystifying in how a society can fuck itself over so thoroughly. Lucky to live in a mostly functional democracy but a good lesson in what the alternative it.
Edited to add Mastodon link as well.
[https://t](https://t) dot me/c/1718080940/15840
I'm not certain but I think this is the same video. Just replace dot and spaces with a period
[https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112615627505448088](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112615627505448088)
It's because you have to be logged in to twitter to see NSFW links. All the more reason to stop using the platform owned by one of Ukraine's most vocal enemies but u/stirly80, u/M795, u/roejoganlife, and u/crimsonlancet don't give a single solitary shit about that.
I understand your sentiment, but unfortunately, some news arrives much quicker via shitter, and I'm grateful that those guys are willing to sift through that cesspit, so the rest of us don't have to.
Looking at the r/new feed of the various Ukraine subs it feels like there's a lot more activity/good news than we've had in a long while. Sukhoi factory on fire, Moscow flooded, bank run, su57's hit, vovchansk steadily gaining back ground. Feels like maybe we turned a page?
It’s a positive twist/turn but there is a very, very long way to go yet. This is the (ebb/)flow from the passage of the US aid bill.
Russia saw that Ukraine was low on supplies so they set up a move on Kharkiv which Ukraine defends solidly against now, thanks to the timely resupply.
Ukraine has one particular major problem arising now, though. They lack electricity power generation and supply lines after more than two years of russian attacks on the grid. They’ll need to ration power for the rest of the war.
russia is spending more than they can sustain. They will become exhausted as time goes on. Their one and only chance to turn the war is another Trump inauguration. Outside that, Ukraine will certainly survive and win with the support of the USA, EU, UK, and other Nations. Russia’s only hope is for Trump to break apart that coalition.
It was just announced in this past week, maybe just a couple of days ago, that they are working on rebuilding one of the blown up power plants (I seem to remember it’s a geothermal plant); a country is donating and delivering the materials. Sorry my memory isn’t that good to remember the country (there’s certainly been a lot of good news lately!)
That’s one silver lining. What is destroyed must be rebuilt. Ukraine has the opportunity to re-construct their power systems knowing they want to integrate with European neighbors and do not need to plan to interoperate with russia.
The electrical grid is a big problem. They can only take so much damage. what happens when it's critical. Russia is losing a lot of ppl and equipment but how does a modern country function without electricity. That could be his only shot to slowly destroy the power supply. It seems kinda ignored tho I expect ppl are worried about it behind the scenes
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 06.14.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 524,060 (+1,250) people,
tanks ‒ 7936 (+8),
armored combat vehicles ‒ 15234 (+26),
artillery systems – 13818 (+48),
MLRS – 1101 (+2),
air defense equipment ‒ 849 (+3),
planes – 359 (+0),
helicopters – 326 (+0),
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 11097 (+22),
cruise missiles ‒ 2286 (+1),
ships/boats - 28 (+0),
submarines - 1 (+0),
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 18,854 (+60),
**special equipment ‒ 2310 (+16)**
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/14/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1250-okupantiv-48-artsistem-26-bojova-bronovana-mashina/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/14/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1250-okupantiv-48-artsistem-26-bojova-bronovana-mashina/)
How accurate or what's even counted as artillery. Seems losing insane amounts. Surely, they will get low on it eventually, where they can't just bombard everything.
> I met with Indian Prime Minister @NarendraModi during my working visit to Italy for the G7 Summit.
> We discussed the development of bilateral relations and trade, in particular in the context of the Black Sea export corridor functioning. We explored the possibility of exchanging experience in the use of new technologies in agriculture.
> We also talked about the Global Peace Summit and issues on its agenda. I thank Prime Minister Modi for sending a high-level delegation to the Summit.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1801602211023118489
I hope Ukraine reminds Russia that they gave their nukes to Russia in exchange for security and peace when responding to Putin’s demand that they give up seeking NATO membership
Which demonstrates now why Ukraine wants NATO membership. Previously they did not. They only wanted closer association with the EU. Russia is pushing its neighbors to NATO.
> Russia is pushing its neighbors to NATO.
The nice thing is; as soon as every nation that borders Russia is in NATO, Russia won't be worried about being tempted to invade their neighbors anymore, and maybe they can focus on improving their own land and industry, rather than trying to steal everyone else's. It will probably bring about a new golden age for Russians.
>Germany to transfer two more IRIS-T air defense systems, three HIMARS to Ukraine – Bundeswehr
>Germany announced another package of military assistance to Ukraine, which included, in particular, two IRIS-T air defense systems, three HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems and ten Leopard 1A5 tanks.
>This follows from a message posted on the Bundeswehr website on Friday.
>The package reportedly included:
>* 20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles;
* ten Leopard 1A5;
* ammunition for Leopard 1 and Marder infantry fighting vehicle;
* one IRIS-T SLM air defense system;
* one IRIS-T SLS air defense system;
* three HIMARS launch rocket systems;
* 21,000 155 mm shells;
* 128 smoke/illumination rounds;
* four anti-drone sensors;
* two Beaver bridge laying machines;
* two DACHS engineering vehicles;
* one Bergepanzer 2 recovery vehicle;
* four WISENT 1 mine clearing vehicles;
* materials for disposal of explosive ordnance;
* three AMPS systems for helicopter protection;
* 100 night vision goggles;
* IT equipment;
* 16 Zetros tank trucks;
* 100 MK 556 assault rifles;
* 85 precision rifles HLR 338;
* 100 CR 308 rifles;
* 4 million rounds of ammunition for firearms;
* rescue boats.
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/993620.html
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1dg9ehb/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
This is a bit morbid, but apparently someone has been keeping a list of all of the Russian soldiers who have been filmed committing suicide after being wounded, usually by Ukrainian drones. They are up to 64 so far. [https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/wiki/list/](https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/wiki/list/) Number 49 is particularly brutal.
Putin's time is running out. Putin’s speech today was very weak. He confirmed what we knew all this time: russia’s invasion of Ukraine was driven by one goal - imperialistic ambitions to conquer Ukraine. https://x.com/rshereme/status/1801783787983954038?t=DOC6pWaBLdJtX6CfT9qWQA&s=19
Russia has a FPV drone gap with Ukraine. (Assuming videos are released at similar rates). That is great news. Both sides are using dozens a day. It wouldn’t surprise me if it increases to hundreds assuming both sides can produce enough. Even each side using 1k+ a day would be just a small fraction of global production. (Shows how terrifying China would be in a war). One piece of bad news is Russia is using a lot of lancets. I don’t think Ukraine has an analog yet. https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1801810180029452742
Switchblade 600
Do we have any confirmation of those being used? I’ve only ever seen 300 videos.
Yes the Pentagon didn't want videos of Switchblade 600 out there.
Yes, there was a video from 4 days ago reportedly showing a Buk SAM getting destroyed by a Switchblade 600.
That drone had a really interesting flight pattern at the end.
There was some talk very early in the war so they much have had a few and the recent package was said to contain a bunch. One of the AA system destruction videos from a couple days ago someone mentioned this was probably a switchblade attack. it certainly didn't look like atypical FPV drone hit
New DeepStateMap update for today (after all!). Russia is confirmed to have taken some 2 km2 of Ukrainian territory today. [About 1 km2 in Chasiv Yar direction](https://deepstatemap.live/en#15/48.6042/37.8856) (a forest between Bohdanivka and Kanal); However, they have been [pushed back about 1 km2 in Kliishchivka](https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/48.5427/37.9730), south from there. 2.4 km2 in Avdiivka sector ([towards Novopokrovske and Yasnobrodivka](https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.1464/37.5564)) Additionally, Ukrainians [have pushed back the Russians at Serebryanske Forest](https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/48.9747/38.1885), near Bilohorivka, by some 0.4 km2
Does the Andrew (I think that’s what his name is, my bad if it’s not) guy still do the daily Russian/Ukraine loss counts? I miss them :(
Perpetua, yes. https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1801054055038349682
Thank you!!
Quoted here daily, most days anyway.
That’s what I’ve been used to. Haven’t seen him posted here the last three days unless I’m blind
He lost telegram access for a few hours a couple of days (?) back and sorting that out put him behind.
[Ukraine Presents Versatile ARK-1 Robot that Offers a Multifaceted Defense Solution | Defense Express | June 2024](https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ukraine_presents_versatile_ark_1_robot_that_offers_a_multifaceted_defense_solution-10840.html) *Ukraine is deeply committed to the field of robotics, dedicating significant time and resources to its advancement. The robotization is crucial for safeguarding the lives of Ukrainian defenders, Mykhailo Fedorov, Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, reports.* *One notable development in this area is the ARK-1 robot. This compact, nearly silent, all-wheel-drive robot is utilized by the military for various missions. It can reach speeds of up to 45 kilometers per hour and is capable of delivering light ammunition, medical supplies, and provisions to forward positions. Additionally, it can operate as a kamikaze, targeting and neutralizing enemy equipment and fortifications. A key advantage of the ARK-1 robot is that its operator can control it from a safe distance of up to 20 kilometers.* *The military has already integrated the ARK-1 robot into active operations and is planning future missions with its use. Notably, UNITED24 is currently fundraising to support the deployment of these systems.*
> At the #DefMin, Ministers addressed #NATO deterrence & defence and agreed a plan for NATO to lead coordination of security assistance & training to #Ukraine. In a more dangerous world NATO is stronger than ever, with more than 500,000 troops at high readiness. https://x.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1801655523722543320
> Putin's comments today are: > - NOT a peace proposal, but an ultimatum; > - NOT based on the principles of the UN Charter as he tries to replace law with force, murder, and destruction; > - NOT lawful because he demands that a sovereign country withdraw from its sovereign territory rather than withdrawing from occupied territories himself; > - NOT legitimate because Ukraine is in full right to seek NATO membership after Putin scrapped all security treaties with Ukraine by invading us; > - NOT serious but a mere smokescreen as he is nerve-racking because of the upcoming success of the Peace Summit to be held in Switzerland tomorrow. > Everything Putin says about peace is nothing more than a PR stunt until he stops showering Ukraine with barrages of missiles and sending more cannon fodder to the battlefield. https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1801722626655555773
Calling it a ceasefire only serves the interests of insidious Russian propaganda. It is a capitulation ultimatum, just the same as all of Russia's supposed attempts at "negotiations," going all the way back to the start of the full-scale invasion.
His speech was truly dire- the ‘west’ too has nuclear weapons. PS 💙💛 Kuleba- class act
[Slovenia Sends Old Yugoslav BOV Armored Vehicles to Ukraine that Similar to Soviet BRDM-2 | Defense Express | June 2024](https://en.defence-ua.com/news/slovenia_sends_old_yugoslav_bov_armored_vehicles_to_ukraine_that_similar_to_soviet_brdm_2-10843.html) *During the full-scale war of the Russian federation against Ukraine, Slovenia supplies Ukraine with rather exotic weapons that are currently used by the Defense Forces of Ukraine. For instance, we earlier reported that in addition to M-55S tanks and M-80A infantry fighting vehicles, Slovenia could also provide Ukraine with 200 Zastava anti-aircraft guns against the Shahed drones, as well as other weapons and ammunition.* *However, it turned out that in early 2024, Slovenia also supplied Ukraine with a batch of Yugoslav-made BOV armoured personnel carriers. They are similar to the Soviet BRDM-2 amphibious armoured scout cars.* *According to 24ur, Slovenia has handed over 20 BOV armored vehicles with 12.7 mm machine guns and three such armored vehicles with three-barreled M55 Zastava anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine.* *24ur was the first to report about BOV armored vehicles from Slovenia in the Defense Forces of Ukraine. Another interesting fact is that these armored vehicles are quite rare in the Balkans.* *According to the Military Balance 2023, at the beginning of the last year, the Serbian Armed Forces had up to 70 BOV armored vehicles of various modifications in service, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Croatia had 6 such armored vehicles, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina had 32 BOV armored vehicles in tank hunter version. At the beginning of 2023 Slovenia decommissioned BOV armored personnel carriers.* *Serial production of these vehicles that was in the 1970s and 1990s, is not currently taking place. How Slovenia's BOVs are serviced within the Defense Forces of Ukraine is an open question at the moment. There is also the question of how the Defense Forces of Ukraine can use BOVs from Slovenia. So far, these vehicles have not been seen in combat footage from the frontline or in military trainings for new brigades.* *There is an example when one of the mobile groups of the National Guard of Ukraine showed Romanian TAB-71 armored personnel carrier at its disposal.*
Latest 3-day Oryx update [musklink](https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1801664587994988593). Russian-Ukrainian losses followed by my speculation. - tanks: 5-3 - IFVs: 17-6 - mobile artillery: 5-2 - missile anti-air: 4-2 This one isn't as good as the last but my general feeling is that ratios got a bit better since the US aid package passed. Russia also tried a big attack yesterday near Mariinka, it seems to have failed with decent loss numbers. There's a new count by Jompy of russian storages using early 2024 images, and it looks like Russia only had ~1.2k decent condition BMPs left in storage. They could finally face serious problems in 2025. Every week of little progress and solid vehicle attrition is bad for Russia. The window republicans gave Putin is closing.
If Trump wins, they should just say that Putin tried making Biden win so it upsets Trump and he wants revenge so he decides to continue aiding Ukraine.
Yeah but Trump's Russian handlers will shut that down quick
>Ukraine turned to prisons to recruit inmates for the military as it continues to experience manpower shortages. The Kyiv Independent got access to two Ukrainian prisons, providing a glimpse into how the recruitment is going and how inmates feel about this new option. https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3kuvxnms6xs2a https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3l5DuYibqNQ
An important distinction is that Ukraine allows only non-violent offenders to join, unlike Russia where even Chikatilo could've joined the SMO. In case you don't know who Chikatilo was. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Chikatilo
100% this is the distinction. I saw today a video a guy charged w ‘possessing arms’ in a UA prison wanting to fight for his country. Indeed, he felt like this was his life cause. 😢
Toward the beginning of the battle for Bakhmut, back when prisoners were just starting to be employed by Wagner, it was noted that they were some of the most motivated soldiers with the most to prove. I think that it could be a pretty huge benefit to Ukraine as long as they can avoid it turning into straight up conscription wasted on Storm Z style meatwave assaults.
> Ambassadors agreed in principle on the negotiating frameworks for the accession negotiations of Ukraine 🇺🇦 and Moldova 🇲🇩. > The Belgian presidency will call the first intergovernmental conferences on 25 June. https://x.com/eu2024be/status/1801690558316036166 Russia’s window on Moldova is rapidly closing. If they don’t get their attempt to disrupt the election there this fall to work, it’ll be hard. The closer Moldova is to accession, the harder the EU will push back on meddling.
Doesn't Moldova having territory that's technically at war due to foreign occupation make it a messy prospect to get it into the EU unless they officially concede independence to that region? Same with Ukraine for that matter
I mean Cyprus is in the EU as well.
> Cyprus Ah yes The complete clusterfuck of a territory where both parties involved in the cultural dispute being NATO members is the only thing preventing them going to all-out war over it
It’s not technically at war. Everyone considers it part of Moldova.
If a foreign group is illegally occupying part of your territory you're technically at war with them because they invaded you. Just like Ukraine is at war with Russia because Russia invaded them and started illegally occupying Eastern Oblasts
*"Russia always offers negotiations when it is struggling, when plans are falling apart, in order to buy time, regroup, correct mistakes, find a weak spot, and then strike again with renewed strength!" – Dzhokhar Dudayev* https://twitter.com/golub/status/1801669978870919479
That was my first thought at Putin saying that He's basically admitting that the Kremlin considers taking much more of Ukraine a lost cause and wants to try and cut a deal before he's driven out of what's already occupied on top of it
This has to be highlighted over and over, Putin is boxed in an he knows it, his attempt at "peace" is nothing more than a demand for Ukraine to surrender 4 of its Oblasts to the Vatnik Kleptostate, something that cannot be tolerated or allowed as this pattern of aggression has already been seen in Hitlers Nazi Germany and that ended in a world war. Putin's Vatnik Russia is a poorer more incompetent form of that but more importantly the only way to force him to capitulate is to give him nothing and take everything from him that he stole. The only way of ending this war in Ukraine along with Putins Vainglorious Delusions is to break the back of his mafia state in Ukraine, it can be done, it's being done but only going in hard and giving Ukraine all the support it needs with no hesitation will this force him to end this and leave and as for any temptations for the Nuclear Threat that's been made clear already: They try it, they sign their own death warrants.
*This is about half of the pre-2022 Black Sea fleet vessels that have been damaged or destroyed so far by Ukraine via missile and drone strikes* https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1801699916672340200
Depends on how you count "Black Sea Fleet vessels". By my count, at the start of the war, the fleet had 30 "front line" (i.e. carrying offensive weapons capable of projecting force, e.g. Moskva, Admiral Makarov) vessels in the Black Sea, another 47 "second line" (i.e. carrying mainly defensive or short-ranged weapons, e.g. Minsk, Ivan Golubets), and 19 "auxiliary" (i.e. unarmed or only armed with machine guns, e.g. Ivan Khurs, Kommuna), for 96 commissioned naval ships. Plus a smattering of civilian vessels used to transport military cargo. So the 24 damaged or destroyed vessels is more like 25% of the overall fleet. Which is still a hilariously massive loss rate.
25% including the naval flagship. Which is even funnier.
True!
First imagery of the airbase strike is out. Looks like multiple destroyed including a hit on a hanger that burned / blew up ( drone warheads not big enough to do that) and left aircraft colors visible. https://x.com/bradyafr/status/1801629416545521924?t=HC5-2Xmfcwgd0z6Jlmkw1g&s=19
When was the actual recent attack? We have a Jun 4 before photo and a Jun 14 after photo.
( drone warheads not big enough to do that) Depends on which drone they used . I ran some numbers on the one they make out the kit airplane and discovered it had room for a couple of hundred or more pounds of explosives with the fuel on board to reach the range quoted. If less distance needed then even more bang can be packed. Edit. A close up of the damage, with slightly better view showing the 2 aircraft still in it. [https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1801642213752897706](https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1801642213752897706)
>Edit. A close up of the damage, with slightly better view showing the 2 aircraft still in it. - The fact that a hangar roof was blown off - a strong structure designed to withstand strong winds and heavy snow, suggests that the explosions were substantial & likely damaged the planes below.
Looks like they removed all the planes on the tarmac beforehand(spies in AFU probably) but might have still had 1 or 2 left in the hangar.
They could have been removed after the strike. We don't know that.
What makes you say that? The lack of debris?
Lack of debris and all planes being removed beforehand except for possibly hangar queens speaks to foreknowledge of an attack.
Do we know that planes were removed beforehand? Where did that information come from?
No wreckage or planes nearby , they couldn't have flown them out damaged.
Could have cleaned it though. There is no way to tell, the images are 10 days apart. Just like the planes in the hanger could have been parked inside afterwards.
I can imagine that any report of drones flying in their general direction might cause the Russians to rapidly move aircraft around.
> spies in AFU probably Or radars.
It would take too long for them to move 6 planes to another airbase unless they had prior warning before the drones were launched. While it's possible a recon mission could have spotted preparations more likely someone in the AFU sold them info.
I'm pretty sure a previous attack failed to damage any aircraft. FighterBomber said the jets were moved out of the way. A big problem with the long-range drones where I've seen experts talking, is that they are pre-programmed with coordinates. If the target moves a few hundred metres then you're gonna miss. The imagery this time looks more hopeful. 70 claimed drones, even on the expensive end, is maybe $10m. A single jet taken out is a win, especially if it makes them waste air defence ammo too.
Drones can take literally hours to reach the target, and they wouldn’t have had to move them to another base, just get them in the air
Millerovo is quite close to the border, it wouldn't take much more than an hour. Russia hasnnot been so great at protecting their assets without pre-planning, let alone in such a tight time frame.
They might have heard the sound of flying lawnmowers and had time to scramble too.
The timing is absolutely amazing.
[Ukraine returns 14 children from Russian occupation | New Voice of Ukraine | June 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-returns-14-children-from-russian-occupation-50427323.html) *The Save Ukraine charity has secured the return of 14 Ukrainian children from Russia-occupied territory, Save Ukraine's leader Mykola Kuleba announced on June 14.* *In a Telegram message, Kuleba said that two of the rescued children are orphans. All 14 children were returned over the course of the week. He recounted the story of two teenage girls, Alisa and Milana. Russian tanks had fired at their homes, forcing them and their families to hide and sleep in damp basements for a while. They witnessed Russian punitive raids, their parents were interrogated and pressured to apply for Russian citizenship.* *“Rescuing each child is a difficult task, so every successful attempt is a small victory on the path to our common victory over the enemy,” Kuleba added.* *He noted that their team has so far returned home 373 children who were either forcibly relocated to Russia or found themselves under occupation.* *In 2023, the European Parliament reported that the number of illegally deported Ukrainian children to Russia could reach 300,000. EMPs believe that the forced relocation of Ukrainian children to Russia began in 2014, following the occupation of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.*
The cargo volume of the port of Odesa is back at 50% of pre-war levels, another failure of the Russian navy. Russia left the grain initiative that limited the exports only to grains, which they constantly hindered by delaying the mandated inspections, but now without the initiative Ukraine exports everything and Russia cannot enforce the blockade anymore: >As many as 46 million tonnes of goods, including agricultural products, have been exported through the ports of the Odesa region since the beginning of the year, a 70% increase compared to last year. >"Despite the naval blockade and enemy shelling, we managed to reach 50% of the pre-war turnover today. Since the beginning of this year, 46 million tonnes of products have already been exported through the ports of the Odesa region - this is 70% more than last year's figure," `https://www (dot) ukrinform (dot) net/rubric-economy/3875042-46m-tonnes-of-products-exported-from-ports-of-odesa-region-this-year.html`
At NATO today to stress that UK support for Ukraine will never waiver. https://x.com/grantshapps/status/1801600778026520790?t=xIKEb9dsmEo5yLgvtoP0dw&s=19
Wouldn't it be "waver"?
I knew what he meant
You are correct.
W8ver
When discussions of Ukraine "trading land for peace" come up usually the reason Ukraine refuses to agree to a ceasefire is based on an unwillingness to surrender millions of Ukrainians to Russian domination as well as complete lack of trust that the peace deal would be permanent and not just lead to Russia restarting the war at their own convenience later on. These are the two most important reasons and a failure of outsiders to acknowledge this means that any ceasefire is unlikely no matter what supposed "realists" try to say. That said there is also a lesser discussed third reason and that's simply that the Kharkiv, Kherson, the Donbas and Zaporizhia have the best defensive ground and that's where Ukraine has spent years fortifying. If Ukraine walks away from these Russian claimed areas (areas that Russia doesn't actually control) then stopping a future Russian invasion would be significantly harder. The Donbas was some of the hardest area to take in WWII as well as in Russia's 2014 invasion and 2022 full invasion. The Sudetenland had Czechoslovakia's best defenses in the 1930s and when they traded their best defenses for "peace" they got neither. Even if a future invasion failed Russia could always use the previous ceasefire lines as the basis for any future negotiations as well. If Ukraine hands over the areas Russia has annexed they will doom millions of people to Russian oppression, it will not satisfy Russia's long term goals, they will not get the areas back and it will destroy Ukraine's future ability to resist Russian invasions. The people who propose this "deal" are either ignorant or not operating in good faith. There is simply no real way for Ukraine to trade land for peace. That "deal" does not exist.
i hate to say it, lots of Crimea and Donbas residents 'want to be part of russia.' be it pensions, trust, propaganda, but it is true. i am from both regions and have family in both. they like putin. he will absolutely use them as pawns, but lots of russians trust and 'prefer' russia. pensions, stability, a war like assertive attitude.
how much of that however is the miniprity being stirred up to seem larger than it is combined with Ukranians being displaced though? you're from the region, can you give an indication of that or is it those regions have always legitimately been majority pro russian regardless?
What are you talking about? Ukraine isn't giving up areas it controls. I know Putin said that but that's not happening. As far as areas already under Russia controls. The likelihood is that Ukraine will never recover those.
> The likelihood is that Ukraine will never recover those. The same people who say that are the same people who thought Kyiv would fall within a few weeks. If Ukraine gets the quantity and quality of weapons needed they absolutely can break the Russian war machine and eventually get their land back. It won't be quick or cheap but it's absolutely possible and depends largely on the political will both within Ukraine and within the countries supporting Ukraine.
Nobody said there is no scenario in which that is possible. We are talking probability here. And the probability of them getting everything they need is already low. Next is the probability of if they get everything they need being able to put together credible combined arms offensive to break entrenched Russian lines. They have not shown the ability to do that and, the capacity to do that in doubtful bc its very hard. The probability of both of those happening is extremely low.
Russia's currency is literally at the mercy of China now. Killing a bunch of invaders isnt the only way to win the war. Bleeding them out over time can lead to a collapse at the front. Is it likely? Who knows. But I definitely wouldnt say "The likelihood is that Ukraine will never recover those." Ukraine still has the support of the west and it has only picked up recently after US republicans stopped dragging their feet. Russia is crumbling, their "allies" of north korea and china are just using this to get the best deals they can. It's unsustainable.
You're making a lot of unfounded assumptions and speculations with very little evidence and then trying to pass that off as sober and rational analysis. Right now the Russian lines are holding because Russia can still maintain sufficient amount of artillery fire and send sufficient numbers of tanks, armored vehicles and other heavy weapons to the front meanwhile western production and supply isn't at the pace needed to truly give Ukraine a material advantage as of today. The problem for Russia is that their current advantage comes largely from stockpiles and much less from new production whereas the west can outproduce Russia but doesn't have the massive stockpiles. If the current trends continue Russia's combat effectiveness will drop and Ukraine's combat effectiveness will rise until eventually Russia is unable to compete (and no Ukraine doesn't need to master combined arms warfare for this to happen). You can speculate and say "the current trend will shift in favor of Russia" but that's just speculation. If NATO countries stop passing these large aid bills that we've seen in 2022, 2023 and 2024 then Ukraine is unlikely to recover their land. If the aid bills continue and the quality of arms keeps increasing then the situation will grow increasingly dire for Russia.
You are making the same amount of unfounded assumptions. You are assuming that funding for Ukraine will continue at least at present levels and will increase, essentially indefinitely. You are assuming that Russian combat effectiveness will decrease while in fact, in many respects it has increased. There have been many reports that Russia has improved its EW capabilities, that they have significantly degraded Western precision weapons. Most importantly, you are confusing the very important distinction between offense and defense. Ukraine has a vast attritional advantage now mostly bc its defending and Russia is attacking. Once Ukraine goes on offensive, which they must do to recover lost land, Russia will gain the defensive advantage. Yes, Russia is losing a ton of vehicles etc and everyone points out that they will eventually run out...and they may...but that is for offensive operations. They can effectively freeze the front lines, bunker behind their minefields and then the vehicles don't matter much. Ultimately, Ukraine has a much smaller population, the war is being fought almost exclusively on Ukrainian land, and it can afford to lose far less people than Russia.
Cease fire talks are only a thing for pro-Russians and for people actively choosing not to pay attention to any details whatsoever.
Ukraine already kind of did that with Crimea in 2014. They kept fighting the civil war against DPR and LPR, but never tried to move the war into Crimea.
Not having the capacity is not the same as formally surrendering territory. And at that point Russia had lots of capability to escalate, whereas now they are already throwing in everything they have.
Yes and 4th Point: Russia is weakening and Putin always makes outrageous overtures from position of weakness
That's part of it. There are also a lot more points you could go into but I'd agree that Russia "projecting strength even while weakening" is certainly part of how they operate. It also has some upsides for Russia given that the view "Ukraine can't win a long war" has contributed to significantly slower aid provided by the west. If western leaders and voters had bought into the idea that Ukraine could win starting in March then the war would have taken on a whole new dynamic and possibly have been over by now.
> I arrived in Switzerland for the Global Peace Summit. There will be two days of active work with countries from all parts of the world, with different nations that are nonetheless united by a common goal of bringing a just and lasting peace in Ukraine closer. > The Peace Summit will provide an opportunity for the global majority to take specific steps in areas that matter for everyone in the world: nuclear safety, food security, and the return of prisoners of war and all deported persons, including deported Ukrainian children. > Around 100 countries and international organizations are set to participate in the summit. I am grateful to everyone who chose to attend and demonstrate global leadership and commitment to peace, international law, and the UN charter. > Together, as responsible global majority, we must make every effort to ensure that wars, aggressions, and colonial occupation can be ended and that they will never repeat. I am certain that everyone in the world is interested in just peace and respect for every nation. > This is why the summit is designed in such a way that each nation has the opportunity to demonstrate leadership in achieving shared goals. The voice of the responsible global majority has the potential to bring peace closer and restore full force to the UN Charter. #PathtoPeace #PeaceforUkraine https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1801642229330505880
using the interest on frozen assets against them, you love to see it
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Wrong sub for your fetishes
A girl can dream
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Wrong sub for your fetishes
Were all the dick metaphors really necessary?
They tried a concern troll post last night and they got busted busted busted lol. So now it's the good old pollute the sub with repugnant crap so nobody wants to read it (with a little "the west is weak and divided" because hey, quotas.)
They're not cocking about, so yes.
I dont know, they came across as a bit testes to me.
> because Putin didnt want to freeze the war at the lines we have now. I don't think Ukraine would have agreed to that proposal anyway. They know that Russia wants to completely destroy Ukraine so any ceasefire is just a mechanism for Russia to rearm and then try again when there is a more favorable political climate in western countries and as a result Ukraine has taken the stance of "no ceasefire" which is reasonable to me.
I agree with you. But Ukraine cant stand alone, If the aid its cut, they are fucked. We both know this. Ukraine has a very hard path, use diplomacy but also show how the west is not doing enough, and it worked.... i am also guessing they promised some ressources after the war to.
I assume based on your talk of how tough we need to be, that you have volunteered as a soldier to fight for Ukraine?
The sad thing is that ukraine can win with just weapons, they dont really need soldiers and we cant even do that right. But If we keep doing this bullshit, of playing games with weapons, yes they will need soldiers.
Be gone vatnik
Soo either join the war effort or don't wish for a tougher response on Russia. Got it
What does Putin's statement on peace talks mean - the day before the Swiss peace summit and right after sanctions were imposed on the Moscow Stock Exchange? ◾️ Basically, Putin recognized that he could not achieve his goals in the war with Ukraine militarily - the Russian Armed Forces are currently unable to capture major Ukrainian cities: neither Zaporizhzhia, nor Kherson, nor even the cities of the Donetsk region. ◾️ Putin also made it almost directly clear: sanctions are very painful for the Russian Federation, which is why he wants them lifted. ◾️ Putin is unable to do anything to counteract NATO's expansion: as a result of the war, the border between Russia and NATO has become much wider, and it is increasingly difficult for the Russian army, weakened by more than two years of war, to "hold the perimeter" ◾️ The Russian population's demand for peace is about 70% - this is how many Russians are ready to support Putin's decision to end the "SMO." Moreover, a significant part of the population (20-25%) is ready to support stopping the war on any terms. ◾️ The flow of Western arms to Ukraine has resumed, and long-term contracts are being signed. F16s are coming soon. ◾️ Ukraine has been allowed to strike Russian territory with Western weapons. ◾️ Russia has an obvious manpower problem. If the war continues, Putin will be forced to conduct mobilization, which is unpopular among Russians. ◾️ China is blatantly taking advantage of Russian weakness. ◾️ Trump is a "dark horse" for Putin. His actions are unpredictable. ◾️ Sanctions are becoming really sensitive and will be extended. Among other things, the tanker fleet will fall under them. This will leave the Russian Federation without key budget revenues from oil trade. ◾️ Based on all this, Putin has stepped up his rhetoric about negotiations and freezing the war. Today, his initiative may look like a proposal from a position of strength, but I am sure he will go down in history as the man who finally brought down the "Russian empire." https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1801622942150692868?t=lo1utFUlJhhea6QRHnW-sA&s=19
The more RU talks about freezing things, the closer we all are to the end. This is a harbinger of strategic culmination. You heard it from Putin himself - the only way to get them out of occupied territory is to physically beat them out. Western countries better start planning accordingly. The frog is boiling, now toss in some Sodium to drive the point home.
"Putin demands the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, after which peace negotiations can begin." link: [https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/russias-putin-outlines-conditions-for-peace-talks-with-ukraine.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/russias-putin-outlines-conditions-for-peace-talks-with-ukraine.html) \^That sounds like the same garbage we've been hearing for years now. No change in the rhetoric whatsoever
its the same thing Putin said in th first month of the war during the Belgium "peace" negotiation. Except he threw full disarmament into the mix too.
this is some premium KGB style brain washing propaganda
> The more RU talks about freezing things, the closer we all are to the end. This is a harbinger of strategic culmination. I don't think this is necessarily true. Sometimes Russia can talk about freezing the war because they know Ukraine won't (and shouldn't) agree to it. That way when the "peace talks" fall through Russia can pretend like they are the reasonable ones.
it is part of pretending they did not invade unilaterally and blaming ukraine by sharing responsibility for 'both sides' fighting each other. ukraine had no role in the fighting, so stopping is up to russia since they started it. it is more FSB gaslighting
> The Russian population's demand for peace is about 70% - this is how many Russians are ready to support Putin's decision to end the "SMO." Moreover, a significant part of the population (20-25%) is ready to support stopping the war on any terms. I'm sorry, but this sounds like bullshit. Nothing we see from the general Russian population hints at this.
Many Russians consider the invasion a mistake. Unfortunately, most of them believe that losing the war would be worse than continuing it. To counter that, Ukraine and its allies need to show that Russia will inevitably lose in a way that the Russian can't explain.
I mean the way it's currently going is great. With the latest sanctions Russia is so much more at the mercy of China now. As their economy crumbles more and more at some point they will realize that this might end in a way that ends up much much worse for them than simply ending it on any terms right now. You basically have to promise that their future will be a living hell if they continue the war. The US finally getting that aid package done and other countries jumping back on board in the last few weeks is the first step towards that.
The problem is, Russians still think Russia can win. To change that a strategic defeat might be necessary. A blockade of Crimea, for example.
Any polling taken in Russia needs to be treated with extreme caution and even then the normal caveats of polling still apply. For instance if the question asks "if the Russian government ended the war in Ukraine would you support that decision" and the answer is "overwhelmingly yes" then that's very different than a question that asks "do you oppose the Russian government continuing the war." Of course if someone is trying to drum up a news story that shows Russians actually hate the war they might take the first question as indicative of opposition to the war.
It's not bullshit but it's more like "70-80% of Russians will accept peace if they keep occupied territory" as in actually win the war. Geraschanko is an arm of Ukrainian propaganda, he only posts positive stuff or puts a positive spin on negative stuff.
[President Zelensky arrived in Switzerland for the Global Peace Summit](https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/14-june-president-zelensky-arrived-in-switzerland-for-the)
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Probably because it is designed to try and find solutions to the conflict, 2 day old reddit account
it looks like the tipping point has been reached.. in the last month or so the west had donated about 600-700 armored vehicles.. spain, france, baltics, UK, US, etc.... 1000+ support vehicles.. japan sent 110 this month alone with many more to come 50,000 more drones of all sizes... 50K production is ongoing and increasing in ukraine for armored vehicles.. thousands of ATGMs are headed to ukraine.. 3 times more aircraft are headed there than russia can make in 5 years... us, france, and Argentina... Argentina!!!! 5-6 long range ADA systems are headed there so please tell me again, is russia winning? https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1801638886977757430?t=Tnl3SG5MDl2MNPTH7SHtXg&s=19
All this, along with their own production capabilities being brought back online, Ukraine is going to have one of the most formidable armies in the world.. right.. next.. door.. to Russia. Well done, Putin.
Is this the first time Japan sent vehicles?
They took a long time to be delivered. They were pledged over a year ago. I’m unsure if it’s the only instances. They were unarmored military vehicles. Think humvees/G-wagons. Plus some tracked engineering vehicles.
RU may be bigger than UA, but not even close to bigger than 3/4 of the industrialized globe set against them. Unless you count raw land I guess.. Not exactly the key success metric I would select in this case. RU is hosed, only question is their stubborn self-imposed cost to get there.
Make sure to not delude yourself. Russia may be horribly outclassed by any economic metric, but all of those metrics have to be multiplied by an engagement factor. That factor is MUCH higher for Russia and has some potential to drop significantly come november.
*RU is hosed* I'm going to believe that when said aid starts translating to widespread, offensive, battlefield victories. And we still got a ways to go on that one.
Most of it tundra unusable till global thaw
What do you think has the Orange One singing Putin praises but the goal is all that sweet, sweet Arctic coastline that opens up with global warming.
> RU may be bigger than UA, but not even close to bigger than 3/4 of the industrialized globe set against them. To put things in perspective .... Western defence budget (NATO + allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia and others) is around the amount of the Russian GDP. So.... how the fuck did Putin think he can fight the West? With what?
He didn't plan to still be fighting. The might of Russia would cause Ukrainian resistance to quickly collapse long before the west could respond. Assisted by stooges in and outside of Ukraine who would slow and complicated any response. Endless respect for all Ukrainians who looked at an army much bigger than theirs and resolved to fight regardless. Which is what exposed Putin's serious miscalculation and the flaws in the illusion of Russian military might.
Russia is still taking this a lot more seriously than the west is. With equal effort it’s obvious. The effort isn’t equal.
That comparison is an over-simplification of the problem. Most of that budgetary difference is spent on research and development and personnel wages, not on raw war material like shells and missiles. Western nations have much higher wages for military personnel, and huge chunks of our military budgets are spent on pensions for retired personnel. Even after removing those massive pieces of the pie from the budget, overall Western military expenditures on weapons procurement is still dramatically higher than Russia, but a lot of what's left is spent on advanced, cutting-edge weapons like the latest generation of cruise missiles, satellites, stealth aircraft and naval assets. Most of these weapons are built only in enough quantities to defend Western countries from a direction confrontation with Russia or China, so they are not on the table to be donated to Ukraine. The whole reason Russia is able to compete in this war at all is because we aren't producing the same raw war material that Russia and Ukraine are consuming in vast quantities, and it is very time-consuming to set up production for those cheap materials. Russia already has the infrastructure to pump out tanks, IFVs, artillery, and ammunition. We don't. We can set up that infrastructure, but it takes 3-5 years to get it rolling on the conservative side. Now that the war is nearly 2.5 years old, some of those production lines are finally starting to pump out decent numbers. It'll still take another two years for us to catch up to Russian production rates though. The other cost of these measures, however, is political willpower, and that part is more of a wild card. A lot of Western voter bases are simply not willing to spend extra taxes on war material. Cold War-level commitments for 2+% GDP spending on military armaments is a tough sell for most NATO members even today, this deep into the Ukraine War.
When the war started NATO's GDP was about 20 times that of Russia. I think it's currently about 26 or 27 times that of Russia and that doesn't even factor in Ukraine itself or other NATO aligned countries which are supportive of Ukraine. There's been a lot of discourse that "Ukraine can't win a long war against Russia" which I think is absolutely BS. It falsely assumes that Ukraine's strategy would always be to match Russian manpower 1:1 and sustain casualties with Russia at a 1:1 rate and that Russian will to fight is equal or greater than Ukrainian will to fight. Rather I think a better way to look at it is that Ukraine's allies have the ability to arm Ukraine to the point where Russia would be facing a significant disadvantage on the battlefield and if western will to support Ukraine remains strong and Ukrainian will to keep fighting endures then it creates a situation where Russia can not win long term.
It's going to be a big effort to actually break through Russian defencea and kick them out. Havnt they dug in and mined some places like crazy
The Russian defenses are strong enough that they are likely going to prevent Ukraine from winning a war of maneuver in the short term. That much is clear. There is a danger though that people look at the Russian defenses and say "this means Ukraine can't get back their territory" and I think that logic is very flawed. What matters now is ability to generate combat effectiveness, replace losses and keep the guns running. There was a time when the Hindenburg line was effectively impossible to penetrate in WWI but eventually Germany was unable to keep pace with Entente firepower and manpower and so the line crumbled. The Russian defenses are largely holding because their rates of fire are sufficiently high and they can still send enough tanks, armored vehicles and infantry to the line to make Ukrainian advances too costly to be worthwhile. If Ukraine gets the weapons they need in the quantities they need then the balance will swing the other way and Russia will be unable to move their forces into an area of the front without being ripped apart by shelling. This process is not going to be cheap or short but ultimately it's a war that can be won by production. In the long term that favors Ukraine if support holds.
> When the war started NATO's GDP was about 20 times that of Russia. I think it's currently about 26 or 27 times that of Russia and that doesn't even factor in Ukraine itself or other NATO aligned countries which are supportive of Ukraine. To put it in another perspective .... the West spends just on defence around as much as the total output of the Russian economy. Going from 2% to 4% wouldn't even make a dent in the West and that would be TWO Russian economies per year for defence.
Yep. Obviously there are also a lot of caveats. It's much cheaper to produce weapons in Russia than in western Europe or North America, Russia will spend a larger portion of GDP on the war than NATO will, Russia doesn't have the same commitments to other parts of the world and can use a larger percentage of the weapons available to them on this war. Even with those important caveats though the west still comes out on top. The west has the resources to essentially fund Ukraine indefinitely while Russia doesn't have the resources to fight this level of war indefinitely. Every single year that passes the gap between Russia and NATO just grows larger as well economically and even if Russia can seize some territory it's not nearly economically productive enough to make up for the cost of taking it. Russia also doesn't have deep meaningful alliances in the same way the west does. Democracies can stick together because trade enriches all and they have a common interest in building international partnerships that mutually benefit them. This isn't the case with Russia's allies. Countries like China and Iran may be pointing their guns in the same direction as Russia today but long term they are both threats to Russia and threatened by Russia. They are Russian allies but not trustworthy allies. The Sino-Soviet split was one of the factors that resulted in the USSR losing the Cold War and in the 21st century neither Moscow nor Beijing is interested in being the other's puppet. Contrast that relationship with Washington-Ottawa or Berlin-Paris and it's a pretty glaring Russian weakness long term.
Feels like there's just this big delay between when plans get made and when they turn battlefield conditions around so much that Ukraine can regain territory. To me it feels like shit should really hit the fan when Russia runs out of stockpiles of artillery barrels and high quantity vehicles like that where they don't have close to the capacity to make new stuff as quickly.
It's the ATACMS hits on SAM placements that has me really jazzed.
Rumor has it they have caused enough havoc that Russia is sending parts of (unconfirmed last I saw) one of their only S-500 batteries to Crimea.
Don’t forget ww1 planes penetrating russian airspace
Footage emerged from the repelled attack near Heorhiivka by the 46th Air Mobile Brigade. In total, 13 pieces of heavy Russian equipment were destroyed. Well done guys! https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1801638133324284293?t=P_HrR5FOCSDJsMHor2lUEg&s=19
Non twitter link. [https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112615713031172298](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112615713031172298)
The fact that 2 vehicles are driving on the same road, the front gets blown up and the latter one just keeps moving and then gets blown up in the same spot just does it for me.
Every post that's not from x dot com is a win!
Mastodon just views better than xitter, thanks
No problem. I'll try to keep doing it as much as possible.
I love that Ukraine is demilitarizing Russia! Keep it up!
The aftermath of Ukraine's recent strike on Morozovsk air base in Russia is visible in new satellite imagery. The base was last struck by Ukraine earlier this year in April. https://x.com/bradyafr/status/1801629416545521924?t=pXuLCKqt7mlWkGW5ffhCXA&s=19
Did the drones have cameras? I thought they all did!!
It’s way too far to send video back, and they can’t use satellite link there afaik
Thanks!
Excellent destruction right there. Looking forward to the ultimate confirmation of how many Russian jets were destroyed.
If those planes were in the same spot, they got every one of them, per scorchy scorch marks on the ground in said locations.
Hot damn. I wonder how many of those planes they effectively wrecked. Looks like a minimum of three.
Highly detailed footage of a Russian BMP-2 with MEAT protection on top, receiving a straight hit by an FPV drone. The crew runs, but are hunted down by drones. The BMP-2 itself is finished off in the end. This is how warfare in 2024 looks like. Work by the 43rd Mechanized Brigade. NSFW https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1801634365358645694?t=xKCjL40gmCNlHHr35oy7Nw&s=19
Holy crap that is brutal. I support the Ukrainians defending themselves from enemies invading their country, but it's still hard to watch people get hunted down like this, no matter who they are.
When the alternative is them being alive to threaten Ukrainian lives this is an acceptable outcome. They have a clear path home and the security of Russia is not under any real threat. ... I've gotten sort of used to it. Watching Russians hug grenades to end themselves is mostly mystifying in how a society can fuck itself over so thoroughly. Lucky to live in a mostly functional democracy but a good lesson in what the alternative it.
Link isn't working
Edited to add Mastodon link as well. [https://t](https://t) dot me/c/1718080940/15840 I'm not certain but I think this is the same video. Just replace dot and spaces with a period [https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112615627505448088](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112615627505448088)
It's because you have to be logged in to twitter to see NSFW links. All the more reason to stop using the platform owned by one of Ukraine's most vocal enemies but u/stirly80, u/M795, u/roejoganlife, and u/crimsonlancet don't give a single solitary shit about that.
I understand your sentiment, but unfortunately, some news arrives much quicker via shitter, and I'm grateful that those guys are willing to sift through that cesspit, so the rest of us don't have to.
Yeah it is.
Looking at the r/new feed of the various Ukraine subs it feels like there's a lot more activity/good news than we've had in a long while. Sukhoi factory on fire, Moscow flooded, bank run, su57's hit, vovchansk steadily gaining back ground. Feels like maybe we turned a page?
It’s a positive twist/turn but there is a very, very long way to go yet. This is the (ebb/)flow from the passage of the US aid bill. Russia saw that Ukraine was low on supplies so they set up a move on Kharkiv which Ukraine defends solidly against now, thanks to the timely resupply. Ukraine has one particular major problem arising now, though. They lack electricity power generation and supply lines after more than two years of russian attacks on the grid. They’ll need to ration power for the rest of the war. russia is spending more than they can sustain. They will become exhausted as time goes on. Their one and only chance to turn the war is another Trump inauguration. Outside that, Ukraine will certainly survive and win with the support of the USA, EU, UK, and other Nations. Russia’s only hope is for Trump to break apart that coalition.
It was just announced in this past week, maybe just a couple of days ago, that they are working on rebuilding one of the blown up power plants (I seem to remember it’s a geothermal plant); a country is donating and delivering the materials. Sorry my memory isn’t that good to remember the country (there’s certainly been a lot of good news lately!)
That’s one silver lining. What is destroyed must be rebuilt. Ukraine has the opportunity to re-construct their power systems knowing they want to integrate with European neighbors and do not need to plan to interoperate with russia.
The electrical grid is a big problem. They can only take so much damage. what happens when it's critical. Russia is losing a lot of ppl and equipment but how does a modern country function without electricity. That could be his only shot to slowly destroy the power supply. It seems kinda ignored tho I expect ppl are worried about it behind the scenes
Ukrainians will be burning Russian corpses for heat this winter.
Hearing Putin bleat about a potential cease-fire certainly doesn't hurt such a supposition.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 06.14.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 524,060 (+1,250) people, tanks ‒ 7936 (+8), armored combat vehicles ‒ 15234 (+26), artillery systems – 13818 (+48), MLRS – 1101 (+2), air defense equipment ‒ 849 (+3), planes – 359 (+0), helicopters – 326 (+0), UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 11097 (+22), cruise missiles ‒ 2286 (+1), ships/boats - 28 (+0), submarines - 1 (+0), automotive equipment and tank trucks - 18,854 (+60), **special equipment ‒ 2310 (+16)** The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/14/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1250-okupantiv-48-artsistem-26-bojova-bronovana-mashina/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/14/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1250-okupantiv-48-artsistem-26-bojova-bronovana-mashina/)
Sixteen candles
How accurate or what's even counted as artillery. Seems losing insane amounts. Surely, they will get low on it eventually, where they can't just bombard everything.
> I met with Indian Prime Minister @NarendraModi during my working visit to Italy for the G7 Summit. > We discussed the development of bilateral relations and trade, in particular in the context of the Black Sea export corridor functioning. We explored the possibility of exchanging experience in the use of new technologies in agriculture. > We also talked about the Global Peace Summit and issues on its agenda. I thank Prime Minister Modi for sending a high-level delegation to the Summit. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1801602211023118489
I hope Ukraine reminds Russia that they gave their nukes to Russia in exchange for security and peace when responding to Putin’s demand that they give up seeking NATO membership
Which demonstrates now why Ukraine wants NATO membership. Previously they did not. They only wanted closer association with the EU. Russia is pushing its neighbors to NATO.
> Russia is pushing its neighbors to NATO. The nice thing is; as soon as every nation that borders Russia is in NATO, Russia won't be worried about being tempted to invade their neighbors anymore, and maybe they can focus on improving their own land and industry, rather than trying to steal everyone else's. It will probably bring about a new golden age for Russians.
Nah, they would just turn to the ‘stans of Central Asia and try and annex them instead.
I’m sure that’ll go great for them. China definitely won’t care if Russia takes more territory in Asia, right?
>Germany to transfer two more IRIS-T air defense systems, three HIMARS to Ukraine – Bundeswehr >Germany announced another package of military assistance to Ukraine, which included, in particular, two IRIS-T air defense systems, three HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems and ten Leopard 1A5 tanks. >This follows from a message posted on the Bundeswehr website on Friday. >The package reportedly included: >* 20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles; * ten Leopard 1A5; * ammunition for Leopard 1 and Marder infantry fighting vehicle; * one IRIS-T SLM air defense system; * one IRIS-T SLS air defense system; * three HIMARS launch rocket systems; * 21,000 155 mm shells; * 128 smoke/illumination rounds; * four anti-drone sensors; * two Beaver bridge laying machines; * two DACHS engineering vehicles; * one Bergepanzer 2 recovery vehicle; * four WISENT 1 mine clearing vehicles; * materials for disposal of explosive ordnance; * three AMPS systems for helicopter protection; * 100 night vision goggles; * IT equipment; * 16 Zetros tank trucks; * 100 MK 556 assault rifles; * 85 precision rifles HLR 338; * 100 CR 308 rifles; * 4 million rounds of ammunition for firearms; * rescue boats. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/993620.html