> It is clear that with the backdrop of a full-fledged war in #Europe, the main event of the #NATOSummit in July cannot simply be the celebration of the 75th anniversary of the Alliance. Both friends and enemies will be looking forward to fundamental decisions that will help end the greatest defeat of the Evil Alliance since the #WorldWarII. #Ukraine needs NATO's support, but #NATO also needs an independent Ukraine on its eastern border.
> We do understand the concern that Ukraine's membership would activate Article 5 on mutual defense and draw NATO into a war with #Russia. That is why today, and this is obvious, we are not demanding the membership. We propose to extend a clear invitation to a large state with the strongest army in the region to join the alliance after the war.
> Along with the invitation, NATO should invest in strengthening Ukraine so that it can defeat Rf, not just survive the war.
> In the early 1990s, the accession of the former Soviet bloc states to NATO seemed fantastic. Today, #Poland and the Baltic states are among the alliance's exemplary members. Similarly, Ukraine can become the pearl and foundation of NATO. And finally put an end to the "eternal expansionism of the Russian world"...
https://x.com/Podolyak_M/status/1803410200885428677
> I was glad to meet with Poland’s Sejm Marshal @Szymon_Holownia in Kyiv.
> Following the first Peace Summit in Switzerland, we discussed further ways to engage with countries in Africa, Asia, and South America.
> We also focused on Ukrainian-Polish cooperation, as well as preparations for the Washington NATO Summit and the signing of a bilateral security agreement.
> The active interaction at the parliamentary level confirms the strategic nature of our countries' relations and is critical for advancing our shared international initiatives.
https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1803457021062291807
Russia Krasnodar railway station, gooooool.
https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1803578398004085061?t=19FtEcfiOTVY-XBk_JHWcA&s=19
Ukraine also stuck Russian Lukoil oil depot in Krasnodar Krai this morning, with drones.
https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1803608572661735797?t=19FtEcfiOTVY-XBk_JHWcA&s=19
[ US Arms Giant Northrop Grumman to Produce Medium Caliber Ammo in Ukraine | Kyiv Post | June 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34544)
*A senior executive from the security and aerospace behemoth Northrop Grumman on Monday said his firm plans to fabricate ammunition in Ukraine, in the first open-source announcement by a major American arms producer of intent to manufacture munitions in the country.*
*Dave Bartell, Director of International Business at Northrop Grumman Defense System (NG) made the comment at the Eurostatory arms show in Paris, and said Ukrainian defense funds would pay to set up the assembly line, which would produce “medium caliber” ammunition.*
*Stanley Brown, a US State Department official also speaking at the arms show, acknowledged Washington expects production to go forward and said a $2 billion US-financed Ukraine assistance program might help with financing.*
*The security industry information group Breaking Defense broke the story and news of Bartell’s and Brown’s remarks, effectively confirming the first-ever American ammunition production line slated to operate inside Ukraine.*
*NG manufactures a range of shells, usually fired by chain gun cannon, in the calibers 25mm, 30mm, 40mm, & 50mm. NG hopes to expand that production capacity in Ukraine into tank ammunition and 155mm artillery ammunition, Bartell said.*
*Currently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are known to operate US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles using 25mm cannon and shells manufactured by NG. The weapon is popular with troops for its reliability, accuracy and powerful warhead, which is sometimes able to take out a Russian tank. The Ukrainian Navy has mounted a small number of the chain guns on patrol boats.*
*The Ukrainian military widely uses a Soviet-era 30mm cannon and shell not produced previously by NG, and small numbers of Swedish-built Stridsfordon-90 infantry fighting vehicles equipped with a 40mm cannon manufactured by Bofors, a longtime Northrop Grumman competitor.*
*Bartell’s limited comments did not offer detail on what AFU weapons systems, aside from 25mm cannon, the assembly line to be set up in Ukraine might manufacture ammunition for.*
*According to the Breaking Defense article, NG in future hopes to expand Ukraine production to 155mm shells, but prefers to manufacture its own design rather than the US Army's current M795 or M1128 shells, both of which were extensively used by the Ukrainian army from May 2022 – December 2023.*
*The US cut off Ukraine from ammunition supplies at the end of 2023 because of Congressional unwillingness to finance further arms deliveries and political infighting. Congress reversed its ban on arms transfers to Ukraine in late April 2024.*
*Northrop Grumman is entering the Ukrainian market on the back of a growing presence in Poland. Its flagship project is an air defense command and control system designed to process information about possibly threatening incoming aircraft or missiles across hundreds of kilometers of air space, and to allow rapid decision-making on how to take the threats out.*
*The system, called Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS), links together real-time data collected by military sensors like satellites, ground radars and even sightings by soldiers for review and analysis by technicians at workstations. A Defense News article called IBCS “the brain” of modern air defense and reported research and development cost $2.7 billion.*
*The Pentagon awarded Northrop Grumman $1.4 billion in 2021 to begin full-rate production of the IBCS system. First delivery of a production IBCS took place in December 2023 and by June 2024 the system was deployed to Poland, a June 17 corporate statement said.*
*The Polish military is integrating the IBCS system with its own forces as part of an investment into a fully modernized national medium-range air and missile defense network called Wisla, a corporate statement said.*
*Aside from air defense network technologies, Northrop Grumman supplies Warsaw with 30mm cannon and ammunition for Polish Army infantry fighting vehicles, and 25mm cannon and ammunition for Polish Air Force Apache attack helicopters.*
> No one will know what happened
Lmao, you are not familiar with export control. People get caught all the time for shit like that and much less. People have been put in jail for things like revealing oil pump designs.
[New beheading of Ukrainian soldier under investigation](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-investigates-suspected-beheading-soldier-by-russia-prosecutors-say-2024-06-18/)
To be fair why is Russians beheading a Ukrainian worse then Russians blowing them to bits with artillery or bullets?
Most deaths Russians have brought to Ukraine is artillery which tears bodies apart like mush
Like... thousands of innocent Ukrainians have died from missiles and shells that tears them apart
What makes a beheading worse?
No it that it's not fucking abhorrent but dont the thousands dying from even worse means matter just as much?
Genuine question
If you can behead someone, you can take them captive.
It’s that. Killing from a distance is a necessity of war.
Beheading a combatant is done purely out of malice.
The Russians really are idiots, this type of thing only makes your enemies even more determined to resist and in this case Ukraine will go out of their way to track down the perpetrators and drop a gift on their heads. It’s likely they will be hunted down even if the war ends and they go back to Russia.
Well, ruzzians think they are winning because their propaganda is telling them so.
The other reason for this is to make Ukrainians do the same with ruzzian POW, so that ruzzians will be afraid to surrender and will fight more desperately.
In fact, ruzzian propaganda does tell ruzzian soldiers that Ukrainians torture ruzzian POWs.
So, some ruzzian soldiers prefer to kill themselves instead of surrendering.
Now, here's the best part: if ruzzian soldier commits suicide, his relatives won't receive compensation. No exception.
As for ruzzians who killed POWs this time, I suspect Ukrainians will find out their names in next 1-4 months and they'll be killed before the war ends.
Because Russian propaganda have spent decades dehumanising Ukrainians. This dates way back to the soviet era when they worked to purge the region of ukrainian nationalism.
https://uacrisis.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/2.-HOW-DEHUMANIZATION-WORKS-IN-RUSSIAN-PROPAGANDA-scaled.jpg
A lot of people who fight in wars are psychopaths. Not just in this war, for instance I recall that lots of war criminals during the Yugoslav wars who did heinous things were either sociopaths or psychopaths.
I mean just look at the leader of the neo-n\*zi Rusich group (Milchakov), he grew infamous in Russia in early 2010s for posting videos of beheading small animals. He also called for the murder of elderly, women, children. And now he is fighting in Donbass, brutalizing Ukrainian troops whenever he has a chance (apparently he was the orchestrator of that first beheading video that was published last year). He probably had something terrible happen to him in the childhood so he went on that train. That still doesn't excuse them nor their behavior. Putin however capitalizes on folks like that being sent on the frontlines, for they fight with extra zeal as brutality turns them on. And if they die, well the Russian society will have one less scoundrel. It's a win-win for him.
Nature versus nurture is of course a very complex thing - but it's just as likely that this guy was born this way and that nothing particularly bad happened to him. Somewhere out there there's probably an anthropologist who says this kind of psychopathy is a normal variation that ensures species survival in extreme conditions. Who knows. But absolutely this guy needs to be put down as quickly as possible.
I'd argue most humans have the potential to do horrific things
They simply need to either be:forced to,filled with rage and hate to an enemy they dehumanize or simply exhausted to te point of not caring about stuff anymore
If milions of conscripted soldiers in WW2 could do it then I imagine most of us could to if filled with enough hate,fear and emotional exhaustion
Absolutely. Though I do think your average soldier doesn't take pleasure from the acts they have to commit. I can't remember the exact figures, but a reasonable % of WW2 veterans admitted deliberately missing targets on occasions where their life wasn't directly under threat. But, in keeping with what you say above, I'm sure that % reduced once they saw friends injured and killed, the impact the other side was having on civilians etc.
Based on his new, innovative technique of postcombat interviews, Marshall (1978) concluded in his landmark book Men Against Fire, that only **15 to 20 percent** of the individual riflemen in World War II fired their weapons at an exposed enemy soldier.
https://academic.oup.com/book/12748/chapter/162864298#:\~:text=Based%20on%20his%20new%2C%20innovative,at%20an%20exposed%20enemy%20soldier.
Don't forget that there are literally criminals in the ranks of the Russian invasion forces. Russia emptied it's prison cells into it's armed forces, that includes serial killers, murderers and psychopaths
Brutality is embedded in Russian culture.
A lot of what Russian parents do to their children would be considered crimes against humanity in the West.
I remember a Russian telling me that he didn't know one person his age that had a good relationship with their parents.
I think it's a way to stiffen Russian resolve and prevent surrender. The thinking is that by committing public acts of atrocity you have so enraged your enemy that they won't be willing to accept honorable surrender, and so there is no other option than to fight fanatically.
Something similar was reported by Anthony Loyd regarding the Serbo/Croatian/Bosnian civil war in his book *My War Gone By, I Miss It So*. In it, a Croatian warlord hangs a Muslim fighter from a construction crane for all to see, and laughs at the author who wonders if it will lower morale. Instead, he points out that the entire town is now considered war criminals by their enemies and that everyone has made an irrevocable choice to join the defense, whether willing or not.
I am sitting behind a keyboard and, blissfully, have no experience in such matters. I have never been so happy to be a fat, peaceful, Westerner.
While we can't understand the lack of humanity of these monsters, we must channel our anger into never ever forgetting the things they've done whenever we hear and combat pro Russian sentiments in the west.
New DeepStateMap update. In the past 24 hours or so, Russia took hold of some 1.7 km2 of Ukrainian territory.
They were [pushed back 0.3 km2 at Olexandropil](https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/48.2715/37.7773) (Toretsk direction), but they took [2 km2 near Ploshchanka](https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/49.2046/38.0481) (West Luhansk direction)
>The garrisons and military bases of the Russian land forces near the Finnish border are still almost empty, although Russia has announced that it will reinforce the forces.
>- On average, 80 percent of the equipment and soldiers have been transferred to the war in Ukraine, says a high-ranking Finnish military intelligence source to Yle.
>Norway is on the same lines as Finland's military intelligence.
>The country's intelligence service has estimated that the number of ground forces has collapsed by 80 percent. However, the figure stated in the annual report only applies to the ground forces of Russia's northern region on the Kola Peninsula.
>The intelligence service estimates that after the end of the war in Ukraine, it will take Russia 3-5 years to restore the combat capability of its armed forces.
>An intelligence source tells Yle that all the first-line equipment has already been taken to war. Old equipment has also been put into use by refurbishing.
>- According to our yardstick, it's pretty bad equipment, but according to the Russian yardstick, it can still be OK, an intelligence source tells Yle.
>Even if part of the equipment is rusted, it doesn't matter either, because it's not sensitive high-tech.
https://yle.fi/a/74-20093440
What is "restoring" is the question here?
There is a good chance they opt for a smaller better trained army that prioritizes drones over armour.
After all that has changed in this war things tactically will not return to the status quo
>There is a good chance they opt for a smaller better trained army that prioritizes drones over armour.
They cannot bully their neighbors with a smaller army, so that's never going to happen on purpose. Also, in general, their ability for good training is questionable.
Honestly, even though they have shown some capacity to adapt, I can't see the Russian army changing dramatically any time soon. At least not for the better.
> There is a good chance they opt for a smaller better trained army that prioritizes drones over armour.
That would be a pretty big shift for them, but it's possible since nothing is as good a driver for change as getting your ass beat by a (on paper) much weaker opponent.
I would expect them to most likely just keep doing the same thing in the future, so masses of poorly trained soldiers and armored vehicles, just with some drones in the mix, like they're doing now.
He died prior to the recent iteration of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which itself feels like it started eons ago as a result to the daily reports.
It was pretty crazy to watch his arc over those final 6 months. The rant videos, the almost-coup, and then the demise that pretty much everyone knew was coming. Absolute scumbag, but the dude was shone bright!
>The shortage of drinking water is getting closer. Wear of treatment plants in Russia reached 90%
>Most of the treatment facilities in Russia were built in the 60s and 70s of the last century and were carried out on average by 80% in the country, and in some regions - 90%, said Izvestia, a member of the State Duma Committee on Construction and Housing Sergey Kolunov.
>There are about 60,000 in the country. water treatment facilities, 21 thousand sewage pumping stations and 12,000. sewage treatment plants, said Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Ecology, Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Alexander Kogan. Another 20% of the country's population, he said, live in the absence of centralized or local treatment facilities.
>At the same time, only 1-2% of the municipal infrastructure is updated annually, although annual wear is 3%, State Duma Deputy Ilya Wolfson emphasizes.
>The wear of treatment facilities does not just worsen the state of water (disrupes of untreated wastewater contribute to the reproduction of cyanobacilli, lead to the death of fish and underwater flora, poisoning of people, etc. d.), but also increases the cost of water treatment in cases where drinking water is taken from the reservoirs, said Kogan.
>(MTL)
[https://www.moscowtimes.eu/2024/06/19/strana-idet-k-defitsitu-pitevoi-vodi-iznos-ochistnih-sooruzhenii-v-rossii-dostig-90-a134348](https://www.moscowtimes.eu/2024/06/19/strana-idet-k-defitsitu-pitevoi-vodi-iznos-ochistnih-sooruzhenii-v-rossii-dostig-90-a134348)
The news from "superpower"
If the west wasn’t so weak willed Ukraine could continue to stretch Russian air defense by targeting these with cheap drones, but Sullivan et al would kvetch about it.
Actually, just allowing to use ATACMS on every military targets would greatly change things.
Because, the next thing that will happen is ruzzian air fields getting destroyed with cluster munition missiles.
It'll greatly hinder ruzzian war efforts, since ruzzian air force constantly launches guided bombs towards Ukrainian positions.
What happens instead is ruzzians preparing for this possibility and building hangars to protect their flying junk.
And shooting it with AA missiles from F-16/Patriots in the air would be much more expensive and dangerous.
As I understand it most water outside of Moscow in Russia is generally not considered safe to drink without boiling. Probably won't give you cholera or dysentery but has a high chance of giving you a stomach bug.
This is an interesting video that Civ Div just posted on the process of making FPV kamikaze drones and some of the considerations that go into them. I take no responsibility for any watchlists viewing this video may put you on: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzOQ7Q\_P6Ak](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzOQ7Q_P6Ak)
In think this war will be ultimately decided by a rapid capitulation of one side or the other rather than through grinding offensives. In fact, grinding offensives like we see now, with km2 advances at massive costs are what will lead to defeat, rather than victory.
I agree that actually taking Crimea will be damned difficult and a siege is probably appropriate, but I don't agree with the author that Ukraine should instead focus on attacking the Donbass region head-on. Russia has had a decade to fortify the area and suppress pro-Ukrainian civilians, the area has direct road and rail connections allowing resupply from Russia, plus the heavily industrialized areas would be brutal to capture. An extra 50,000 troops (or whatever) aren't going to be enough to capture it, just more meat for the grinder.
If it were me, if you want to insist on an offensive operation, I would try to split the southern and eastern fronts by driving a wedge in the Berdyansk direction. Then you cut Kherson off from the Donbass, and cut Crimea off from Kherson (as noted in the article), and have access to the Sea of Azov to frustrate Russian resupply there and more easily attack the bridge.
All that being said, I'm not sure I see any future where either side is able to make massive armored thrusts and take huge swaths of territory. The manpower, training, organization, and equipment for that just aren't available. Attrition and collapse are the only way I see this ending at this point.
The disgusting irony is that probably Russian territory would be much more easy to take than it would be to retake most Ukranian territory, but that would be too much escalation
Yeah, agreed. If you ignore the geopolitical realities, trying to either capture Belgorod and surrounding areas to trade for Ukrainian territory or doing an end run around and behind the Donbass to outflank Russian positions would be far more tactically sound.
Always wonderd if brief incursions into Russian territory like Belgorod to basically destroy military installations,infrastructure etc then move out and use "merely rendering this place ineffective for attacks on our territory" would be a possible or viable move both strategically and from a propaganda pov
>If it were me, I would try to split the southern and eastern fronts by driving a wedge in the Berdyansk direction.
Genius idea, they should try it! Oh wait…
I never claimed it would be easy, I just think that if you insist on conducting an offensive, the Berdyansk axis offers the most benefits. Like I said, I don't think either side is really capable of major offensive actions at this point, just hoping to outlast the other.
Air superiority is what is needed to take back territory on a large scale.
Minefields and other fortifications are simply too developed for a quick land assault to break through. Air superiority gives your land troops the time they need to clear and advance while not under constant bombardment. It also allows you to disrupt resupply to the enemy.
Of course, actually achieving air superiority is so much harder than saying that you need to get it. F-16s should help, but I'm not sure that they'll be enough to tip the scales enough for Ukraine to feel confident that they own the skies.
Yeah, F-16s will help, but even in an absolute best case scenario, you are probably talking 5 years or more before you can even consider talking about air superiority as a serious proposal.
Honestly, I think air superiority and is a bit of a red herring. That's NATO doctrine and the western way to do it, but was never Soviet or Ukrainian doctrine, and the time and resources needed to train an entire air force to achieve it, and an entire army to coordinate with it, just aren't available during a war. I think if Ukraine wants to go on the offensive any time in the next few years they need to develop new ground-based tactics or technologies that don't rely on air superiority. For example, Germany in WWI finally figured out that small unit stormtrooper assault tactics were an effective strategy to break the deadlock in WWI. There's no reason that Ukraine can't come up with some new tactic like that.
> small unit stormtrooper assault tactics were an effective strategy to break the deadlock in WWI. There's no reason that Ukraine can't come up with some new tactic like that.
The issue is that in Ukraine both sides have so many drones up that any large concentrations of soldiers gets spotted and is hit by long range fires and drones before they can get to the front lines to attack. And of course this gives you time to warn your soldiers that an attack is coming so they are on high alert, assuming the attack isn't already broken up before it ever gets to them.
This is why Russia grinds forwards with wave after of small unit attacks, anything larger is sure to be spotted long before it reaches the front lines and have even less chance of success.
So for Ukraine to come up with a new tactic requires a solution which renders constant observation of the battlefield either undoable or the enemy in the area is already so degraded that knowing the attack is coming doesn't do the defenders much good. Jamming is never going to be 100% effective and also affects your own forces as well. So we're most likely talking about long range attacks on positions and trying to cut off their supply routes that they can't mount a decent defense. Easy to say, hard to do of course.
Hopefully the F-16's will push back Russian planes that make glide bomb attacks from high altitude as that is a big part of how Russia tries to degrade Ukraine's defences before they send in the waves of small unit attacks. And even then the cost for Russia to take ground is often horrific, that isn't a trade that Ukraine is willing to make.
It's a tough problem which neither side has solved yet, Russia is just willing to lose a lot more troops for small gains.
Well, I think you can see the start of the new tactics with how Ukraine has successfully utilized drones, which offer some of the benefits of air superiority without requiring as much investment in a standing air force.
But you're basically right - so long as Russia's S-300 and S-400 launchers are effective against Ukraine's air force, and Ukraine's Patriots are effective against Russia, neither side can reasonably expect to achieve air superiority as long as they can keep enough launchers in theater.
The real problem with relying on a land assault can really be summed up in the minefields. If they can find an answer to that, it really opens things up. Air superiority is one answer, because it lets you project force beyond your land control and take the time to work through the minefields. Drone forces could become an answer, if you can find a way to leverage your drone forces to create a safe pocket around your traditional land troops while they clear mines.
Yeah, the minefields are a real killer, they are so damn slow to clear and the engineering vehicles are so vulnerable. I've suggested it before and I know some people think it's a dumb idea, but I personally think small (4-6 person) commercial hovercraft offer one potential solution because they are very fast and can pass over the mines without setting them off. Unarmored of course, but I think trading armor for speed makes sense in this case.
Basically, fire a short but intense artillery barrage to suppress Russian soldiers, use half a dozen small hovercraft to launch a rapid frontal attack, take the first trench line and set up MANPADS and ATGMS to hold the trench line against counterattacks while engineers clear a path for vehicles, then rinse and repeat for the next minefield and trench line. Once you are through the main minefields, then you can revert to conventional armored vehicles.
The problem is you'd cross the minefield but probably be spotted by someone and when you're forced to dismount at a second line of defense like tank traps or anti-vehicle ditches they'd start firing.
Yeah, it's certainly not a perfect magic bullet solution. But at least it gets you to the tank traps in the first place, which is an improvement over getting stopped by the minefield.
Then again, there's a reason I'm a nobody commenting on Reddit, not a military tactician, so....
that or go back to WW1 era tactics where they had mine flails (giant chains on rollers) ahead of tanks.
Push armour forward and cut a path through that way. Most russian mines dont seem to be overly complex compared to mines from that era so the ony issue is preventing your advancing mine sweepers from behind hit by enemy artillery, which is where drones come into play.
I think both sides have tried that... but the density of mines either bypasses or destroys the roller fairly quickly. I have certainly seen imagery of destroyed tanks with mine-rollers.
Ukraine have and it's drones. They are moving towards a constant blanket of surveillance drones, anti drone drones to protect them, grenade dropping drones, and fast fpv bombs with last 300m self targeting to negate EW.
Sure, they definitely have drones, but as useful as drones are, they still aren't a total substitute for proper aircraft. The technology just isn't there yet.
They need to get to a place where drones are able to disrupt, distract and\\or destroy enough russian anti-air capability so that proper aircraft are able to take control.
Yep - no way Russian AA systems are designed to cope with cheap drones swarms. Just have to get close enough to launch them.
Imagine the crazy drone delivery systems Lockheed Martin must be working on now.
Yes, you are right. From what I have seen, Ukraine and Russia are both really good at using short-range FPV drones, there is continual back-and-forth for control of drone airspace. Anything within 10 miles of the front line is just saturated with drones. And Ukraine has done a fantastic job, far better than Russia, at using pre-programmed, long-range drones to attack strategic targets like airfields and refineries.
But right now, Russia has the advantage with mid-range drones, things in the 10 to 100 mile range, with Lancet. And that's the sort of drone you need to take out a lot of air defenses. Something with a decent range that can be guided by a human and isn't reliant on GPS. Unless you can get AI targeting to be good enough to use autonomous drones.
I know Ukraine was working on a copy of the Lancet, but I don't think I've seen any reports of it being used yet.
Tokmak. It hasn’t been in the news since last spring, but that is the keystone needed to cut the front down to the sea. And yes, Robotyne and Novoprokopivka are annoyingly close.
They’re pretty far, actually. Robotyne is about a third of the way from the 2023 spring frontlines to tokmak. And Tokmak is maybe 2/5thsof the way to melitopol. Not to mention ukraine recently lost Robotyne. Any large offensive from both sides are deemed to fail.
Looks like the momentum might be shifting in Ukraine's favor as far as drone warfare is concerned. So much footage of these FPV drones in actions lately, you love to see it!
Some kind of breakthrough was made not too long ago that has made FPV drones equipped with thermal cameras economically feasible, thus greatly increasing their lethality. Combined with the volume of these things that they're cranking out each month I'm sure it's been an unpleasant development for the Russians on the ground, to say the least.
The biggest advantage of drones is the oversight advantage, Ukraine had to use their drones in FPV attack capacity because of shell shortages but now that they should be getting enough ammunition I expect they'll use their drones more for recon and targeting than actually attacking themselves.
Which would probably be the end of the Russian barn tanks: welding corrugated armour outside protects well against drones but little else.
Turns out, they do much better when they're well armed rather than rationing everything while they wait for the American and European political systems to work.
Deepstatemap numbers.
The total area occupied by russia on 1st January 2023 was equal (to the nearest sq km) to the area they occupied on 2nd February 2024.
Russia has since expanded control by 477 sq km.
Putin's recent demand for Ukrainian surrender included handing over the remaining 26,860 sq km of free oblasts Russia wants. That doesn't include Kharkiv, where 184 sq km of the occupation recently happened.
Russia has been progressing around ~100 sq km and losing 250+ tanks and BMPs per month.
To complete the conquest that Putin screamed for the other week, the current rate would take about 22 years + 67,000 tanks and BMPs.
They have, but not in any actually significant way. It is worth remembering that
1: No wars are won by killing 100% of the population. Instead, the will to fight will collapse long before that. Germany as a fighting combatant in WW2 was completely beaten with losses totaling \~2 million dead (and about a further 2 million "missing"), with a pre war population of 78 million (including areas claimed before 1939). If Russia would reach the same rate of casualties, that would mean 3,6 million casualties. This is not a perfect measurement, but considering how completely Germany folded towards the end, it is a good starting point.
2: It takes more than just 1 soldier to do the job of an army. Each US soldier is supported by \~4 people, with a quick google saying for each infanteer there is 5-6 others in the army. If we just take the US estimate, those 8 million dead would need a further 32 million supporters (ignoring the fact that these people are easier to "recycle" than soldiers in the line of fire), meaning 40 million people are active in the Russian military then, completely ignoring the ones who arent dead. Compare this to the US military: 1.4 million people. The US doesnt have the world largest army, but it does have the largest military budget and twice the population (and change).
It is in no way realistic to say that 8 million casualties wouldnt collaps the entire Russian system. Yes, it's only 2,5% of their population, but it's a significant portion of their economy and capabilities as a state. That's 8 million (plus supporting, plus surviving other soldiers) that's not working in industry, with social wellfare, as doctors etc etc.
As a sidenote, Russian vehicles would run out far before they reach 8 million dead. Alot of hay is being made of Russia producing more tanks etc that their western counterpart, but alot of these arent actually being made fresh from scrap, theyre reactivated from storage. Russia in its reporting seldomly makes a distinction between the two meaning reports looking at Russia dont make the distinction either. Old tanks still have cannons and still stop bullets, but ask a soldier if theyd rather fight something produced in 2019 or something produced in the 1950's and youll have a clear answer. Dont get me wrong, Russia has ALOT of metal and wont fold due to that bottle neck for something like 2-3 years, but you cant lose 2856 tanks (Oryx visually confirmed March 2024) and not feel it. They can produce an impressive amount of brand new T90M, but the number they produce seems to be about 50-60 tanks per year... AFTER ramping up production. That cant keep up with how many are lost in Ukraine, nowhere near. In the last two and a half years of the war, we can estimate roughly \~120-150 tanks have been produced. And 2856 destroyed. The Soviet stockpiles are vast. Theyre not 1000+ tanks lost per year for 22 years vast.
(Also small note: Russia has started bringing out vehicles that they havent brought out basically at all in the entirety of this massive conflict. They still shoot, they still stop bullets, but there is a reason they havent been brought out basically at all in this war)
Germany had WW2 military deaths of about 4m and wounded about the same out of a pre-war population of 80m or about 10% total casualties. If the same happened to Russia it would no doubt collapse.
However, OP claimed that 22 years of war at the current intensity would kill more than the entire population of Russia, which is obviously wrong.
From NAFOraccoon:
Many have been wondering why russia cannot rescue their guys surrounded at the aggregate plant
The answer is, their offensive potential is exhausted & Ukrainians are in complete control
Ukrainians are bombarding the sacrificial sukas using Stugna P while eating bread & sausage.
https://x.com/naforaccoon/status/1803084855321698316?s=46&t=VUqNqjdwahL39seuvtxeiQ
We as Romanians have a breed of pig who’s layer of fat is very thick, the slana from that pig is usually very soft and tasty,it melts in your mouth you don’t need to chew it even “ cured “ as someone corrected me above. With the harder pieces we just put them on a wood stick and fry it very slowly and patiently and we drip the melted fat on slices of fresh bread and onion. Plum, pears or apple brandy is a must aperitif.
>“There is no need for radio frequency. The Chimera is invisible! The most sophisticated jamming systems, especially those of the Russians, cannot do anything”.
>Developed by entrepreneur Jérôme Beuclair, the Chimera is a propeller-driven drone capable of carrying a 155 mm shell into the air. So far, 🇺🇦 has bought 2️⃣5️⃣0️⃣ units.
I highly doubt that it's fully jam resistant. But holy shit, those drone drop videos are about to get interesting. Have you ever seen a direct hit of a 155 onto someone's head? We're about to find out.
> I highly doubt that it's fully jam resistant.
It's wire guided, which should make it **very** resistant to jamming if correctly done.
It's done by a new small company which currently has no other customer. I guess we'll know soon enough whether it's a good weapon or not.
Yes, that's a lot. Wire guided missiles have less than 10km I think.
I assume it kind of works as they managed to make a sale. I have no idea whether it works well enough in real conditions.
> During my meeting with Poland’s Sejm Marshal @szymon_hołownia, we discussed the frontline situation and Russia’s ongoing aerial terror. We also talked about cooperation to protect Ukrainian skies.
> Separately, we reviewed the Global Peace Summit outcomes and preparations for signing a bilateral security agreement.
> We appreciate Poland's advocacy for Ukraine's EU membership and are grateful for its comprehensive assistance to our country.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1803395696604709254
> I am grateful to Antigua and Barbuda for joining the Global Peace Summit’s communiqué.
> It is the first country that did not attend the Summit but later joined the final document.
> This demonstrates that our Peace Formula and vision for a just and lasting peace are shared by every continent and region of the world, from Europe to the Caribbean. And this coalition will only grow.
> A truly stable world is one of real equality, where all nations have a say and can demonstrate their leadership.
> This is precisely why we created the Peace Summit format, which we will continue to develop by involving new participants and working thoroughly to bring peace closer. #PathtoPeace #PeaceforUkraine
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1803312143887966617
> One more signature for the first Peace Summit communique. The Organization of American States joined the document.
> I am grateful to @OAS_official, an important regional organization that brings together 32 states from South and North America and its Secretary General @Almagro_OEA2015 for supporting global efforts to restore the UN Charter's full strength.
> The communique of the first Peace Summit is being signed by an increasing number of states and organizations, demonstrating its global significance. The document reinforces respect for international law's fundamental norms, which protect all peace-loving nations.
> We continue to encourage everyone to join our global efforts that promote equality for all nations, bring a just peace for Ukraine closer, and provide opportunities for global leadership.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1803387444982579216
Every country that's ever been subject to colonialism should sign this very basic document. It's crazy that countries like South Africa and RDC did not sign it given their horrific experience with colonial powers committing atrocious crimes against them. And basically all African countries are dependent on Ukrainian grain, so they should come together and sign it.
> Our mobile firing groups and everyone in the Ukrainian Defense Forces fighting against Russian aerial terror deserve our deepest gratitude and further reinforcement.
> I highly appreciate all of the efforts to protect Ukrainian lives and disrupt Russia’s plans to terrorize our people.
> I also extend my gratitude to everyone around the world who is helping to build the Ukrainian air shield, which will serve as the foundation for the sky shield of our entire Europe.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1803359762114867550
> I am grateful to our Danish partners and Minister @troelslundp for the 19th military aid package for Ukraine.
> Among other, the package includes financial support for our defense industry - DKK 1.2 billion (2 donation packages) for 🇺🇦 defense industry acquisitions.
> F-16 additional material donation is also on the list.
https://x.com/rustem_umerov/status/1803348418384810257
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 19.06.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 529,750 (+1,130) people,
tanks ‒ 7984 (+10) units,
armored combat vehicles ‒ 15319 (+12) units,
artillery systems – 14,007 (+48) units,
MLRS – 1104 (+0) units,
air defense equipment ‒ 857 (+4) units,
aircraft – 359 (+0) units,
helicopters – 326 (+0) units,
Operational-tactical UAV – 11221 (+34),
cruise missiles ‒ 2297 (+0),
ships/boats ‒ 28 (+0) units,
submarines - 1 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 19,078 (+47) units,
special equipment ‒ 2351 (+7)
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/19/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1130-okupantiv-48-artilerijskih-sistem/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/19/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1130-okupantiv-48-artilerijskih-sistem/)
> If you think 2021 is wild, just wait till you see what happens in 2022.
There's no way the virus would mutate (making the vaccine less-effective) and continue to wreck our culture for another year, right? And there won't be crazed groups of assholes online spreading misinformation about anti-vax gaining political power into the runup of 2024 elections.
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Oh, lemme guess. You're talking about foreign policy events? Does ISIS-K in Afghanistan start stirring up shit again forcing us back to Afghanistan? I'm so over that as of 2021, hopefully no other major foreign policy events happen.
-------
...
Its like the old joke goes: What if COVID19 entering the start of 2020 was not the start of a bad year... but instead the start of a bad decade?
The Russian delegation had entered the meeting room but were then told to get out because Dear Leader is supposed to be seated first….
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1803416735690682462?s=46&t=VUqNqjdwahL39seuvtxeiQ
If Ukraine can get the average number of Russian casualties up to ~1800 per day while minimizing their own, then the same number of Russian soldiers being made combat ineffective will be the same as the number of Russian boys born every day. It's completely not possible to sustain. That would be the absolute hard limit on what Russia can handle for a very short period ( ignoring foreign mercenaries which will quickly fall off as Russian casualties mount).
I don't think you're "racing" the birth rate or anything similar. You need to remove russians (1) more quickly than they can be sent into theatre for operational gains or (2) more quickly than they can be recruited and trained for strategic gains.
Russia has probably mostly "used up" its supply of prison meat, and sacrificial soldiers from the 2014 occupied areas.
Supply and demand means, as it's harder to get volunteers they'll have to raise salaries even more. Or they'll mobilise people Putin considers "valuable", meaning white slavic men from the main cities. That comes with major political risks. So we've seen that Putin avoids doing that until the front cracks, like Kharkiv in 2022. Next time we want the front to crack and for an equipped Ukrainian army to make much bigger gains.
It's even worse for Russia when you consider the ~16 year gap from baby to soldier. Additionally when you wound a Russian soldier, you take 3 people out of the battle. The initial soldier, the one to drag him back, and the medic.
I suspect if that happens you will see Russia dig in and adopt a mainly defensive posture - in an effort to hold the line until after US elections, depending on Trump to cut off aid to Ukraine. We saw what happened when the Republicans blocked aid for months - Russia gained an advantage and was able to press an offensive. Russia may be betting on that effect.
They will adapt to the circumstances. In some areas adopting defense when needed and assaulting elsewhere when possible. They’re not gonna get atop down command that says everyone hunker down. If you’re currently located somewhere along the front that’s less defensible. You’d have to move back somewhere defensible and then give up territory. Every acre Russia holds is a bargaining chip.
Recent war on the rocks episode states that the 30k/month was true last year/some months ago and that it's probably less new. Of course can't be known for sure but Koffman estimates 20-25k.
Remember to take those #s with a large grain of salt. When you're not actually counting them in front of you it's guesswork, not to mention propaganda purposes. It's likely 30% overcounted for civilian and military morale.
The breakpoint is earlier than that. You forgot there is a percentage of any society that is rendered unfit for the workforce during their lives and the percentage that leaves the country never to return(others arrive so this one usually cancels out a little).
In functional workforce metrics Russia is likely already in the negatives or very close.
Why 18? Hitler used little kids when things got rough, Putin wouldn't fall behind. Not to mention this would be a huge propaganda win: "Little Boris was 10 y.o. loved trains and dreamed becoming a train driver when he grow up. His life was cut short by Ukrainian Nazis...". Burried deep inside the article: "...while he was storming Chasiv Yar", but who reads that?
There is a 10 year gap from baby to 10 year old still. It's just like the problem of reforestation. Yeah, you can cut a tree down and even plant 3x the saplings, but the time to maturity is a long way off.
I remember seeing both a Ukrainian and a Russian source where they collect data via social media, local news etc.
https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-over-50-400-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/
North Korea doing a sunflower parade in front of Putin. I guess the memes didn't reach North Korea yet.
https://x.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1803373790614736978
"😍🔥
🇺🇦Ukrainian «BULAVA» battalion of the Presidential Brigade strikes 🇷🇺Russian 220mm heavy flame-throwing system TOS-1A «Solntsepek» with night-vision FPV drones."
https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1803364394379739195?t=Ye92ecdNRSHUrxiBtiuJWQ&s=19
I saw exactly nothing in this video. The FPV had so much noise that I couldnt see what was going on. Then the surveying drone footage cut out before the fpv hit it.
well they likely have more bad news coming. a statement needs to be made in the south China sea. If Biden wins this election Russia will likly fold in Ukraine and then the US and the pacific allies need to make some example there VS China. China is doing the same thing Russia did only because Russia has been allowed to get away with it in Ukraine.
Why though? NK won't suddenly become less friendly with China because of this. China's main interest in NK is it serving as a buffer zone. It doesn't stop serving this function if it trades a bit more with Russia. In fact, I think China would prefer if NK normalized a bit.
ruzzia is giving NK technologies for nuclear subs and also technologies allowing NK to make precise nuclear strikes on any location in US.
What do you think is going to happen next? More stuff like US military bases near China. More Western weapons flooding Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc.
Japan significantly increasing defense spending.
Basically all the things China prefers not to happen.
Because NK fraternizing with Russia only invites more US interest into the region, and China doesn't want the US in the area anymore than they already are.
Because China is scared of dealing with a massive refugee problem if NK ever falls completely apart and can’t stop their starving populace from storming the border
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1dk2mpr/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
> It is clear that with the backdrop of a full-fledged war in #Europe, the main event of the #NATOSummit in July cannot simply be the celebration of the 75th anniversary of the Alliance. Both friends and enemies will be looking forward to fundamental decisions that will help end the greatest defeat of the Evil Alliance since the #WorldWarII. #Ukraine needs NATO's support, but #NATO also needs an independent Ukraine on its eastern border. > We do understand the concern that Ukraine's membership would activate Article 5 on mutual defense and draw NATO into a war with #Russia. That is why today, and this is obvious, we are not demanding the membership. We propose to extend a clear invitation to a large state with the strongest army in the region to join the alliance after the war. > Along with the invitation, NATO should invest in strengthening Ukraine so that it can defeat Rf, not just survive the war. > In the early 1990s, the accession of the former Soviet bloc states to NATO seemed fantastic. Today, #Poland and the Baltic states are among the alliance's exemplary members. Similarly, Ukraine can become the pearl and foundation of NATO. And finally put an end to the "eternal expansionism of the Russian world"... https://x.com/Podolyak_M/status/1803410200885428677
> I was glad to meet with Poland’s Sejm Marshal @Szymon_Holownia in Kyiv. > Following the first Peace Summit in Switzerland, we discussed further ways to engage with countries in Africa, Asia, and South America. > We also focused on Ukrainian-Polish cooperation, as well as preparations for the Washington NATO Summit and the signing of a bilateral security agreement. > The active interaction at the parliamentary level confirms the strategic nature of our countries' relations and is critical for advancing our shared international initiatives. https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1803457021062291807
Russia Krasnodar railway station, gooooool. https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1803578398004085061?t=19FtEcfiOTVY-XBk_JHWcA&s=19 Ukraine also stuck Russian Lukoil oil depot in Krasnodar Krai this morning, with drones. https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1803608572661735797?t=19FtEcfiOTVY-XBk_JHWcA&s=19
I’m glad I looked! I was just about to post Lukoil!!
[ US Arms Giant Northrop Grumman to Produce Medium Caliber Ammo in Ukraine | Kyiv Post | June 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34544) *A senior executive from the security and aerospace behemoth Northrop Grumman on Monday said his firm plans to fabricate ammunition in Ukraine, in the first open-source announcement by a major American arms producer of intent to manufacture munitions in the country.* *Dave Bartell, Director of International Business at Northrop Grumman Defense System (NG) made the comment at the Eurostatory arms show in Paris, and said Ukrainian defense funds would pay to set up the assembly line, which would produce “medium caliber” ammunition.* *Stanley Brown, a US State Department official also speaking at the arms show, acknowledged Washington expects production to go forward and said a $2 billion US-financed Ukraine assistance program might help with financing.* *The security industry information group Breaking Defense broke the story and news of Bartell’s and Brown’s remarks, effectively confirming the first-ever American ammunition production line slated to operate inside Ukraine.* *NG manufactures a range of shells, usually fired by chain gun cannon, in the calibers 25mm, 30mm, 40mm, & 50mm. NG hopes to expand that production capacity in Ukraine into tank ammunition and 155mm artillery ammunition, Bartell said.* *Currently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are known to operate US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles using 25mm cannon and shells manufactured by NG. The weapon is popular with troops for its reliability, accuracy and powerful warhead, which is sometimes able to take out a Russian tank. The Ukrainian Navy has mounted a small number of the chain guns on patrol boats.* *The Ukrainian military widely uses a Soviet-era 30mm cannon and shell not produced previously by NG, and small numbers of Swedish-built Stridsfordon-90 infantry fighting vehicles equipped with a 40mm cannon manufactured by Bofors, a longtime Northrop Grumman competitor.* *Bartell’s limited comments did not offer detail on what AFU weapons systems, aside from 25mm cannon, the assembly line to be set up in Ukraine might manufacture ammunition for.* *According to the Breaking Defense article, NG in future hopes to expand Ukraine production to 155mm shells, but prefers to manufacture its own design rather than the US Army's current M795 or M1128 shells, both of which were extensively used by the Ukrainian army from May 2022 – December 2023.* *The US cut off Ukraine from ammunition supplies at the end of 2023 because of Congressional unwillingness to finance further arms deliveries and political infighting. Congress reversed its ban on arms transfers to Ukraine in late April 2024.* *Northrop Grumman is entering the Ukrainian market on the back of a growing presence in Poland. Its flagship project is an air defense command and control system designed to process information about possibly threatening incoming aircraft or missiles across hundreds of kilometers of air space, and to allow rapid decision-making on how to take the threats out.* *The system, called Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS), links together real-time data collected by military sensors like satellites, ground radars and even sightings by soldiers for review and analysis by technicians at workstations. A Defense News article called IBCS “the brain” of modern air defense and reported research and development cost $2.7 billion.* *The Pentagon awarded Northrop Grumman $1.4 billion in 2021 to begin full-rate production of the IBCS system. First delivery of a production IBCS took place in December 2023 and by June 2024 the system was deployed to Poland, a June 17 corporate statement said.* *The Polish military is integrating the IBCS system with its own forces as part of an investment into a fully modernized national medium-range air and missile defense network called Wisla, a corporate statement said.* *Aside from air defense network technologies, Northrop Grumman supplies Warsaw with 30mm cannon and ammunition for Polish Army infantry fighting vehicles, and 25mm cannon and ammunition for Polish Air Force Apache attack helicopters.*
[удалено]
Nice try FSB
> No one will know what happened Lmao, you are not familiar with export control. People get caught all the time for shit like that and much less. People have been put in jail for things like revealing oil pump designs.
Message for stupid US weapons tech folks: Commit federal crimes by violating ITAR and other laws.
[New beheading of Ukrainian soldier under investigation](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-investigates-suspected-beheading-soldier-by-russia-prosecutors-say-2024-06-18/)
To be fair why is Russians beheading a Ukrainian worse then Russians blowing them to bits with artillery or bullets? Most deaths Russians have brought to Ukraine is artillery which tears bodies apart like mush Like... thousands of innocent Ukrainians have died from missiles and shells that tears them apart What makes a beheading worse? No it that it's not fucking abhorrent but dont the thousands dying from even worse means matter just as much? Genuine question
If you can behead someone, you can take them captive. It’s that. Killing from a distance is a necessity of war. Beheading a combatant is done purely out of malice.
Ain't shooting them that to? Like we know they have shot Ukrainian pow's to It's hardly a surprise. They have no limits
I hate it so much - just why? Someone give me some reason I literally hate it. Aware there is no reason
Terror tactic to scare Ukrainians. The same reason ruzzians deliberately target Ukrainian civilians when they can.
The Russians really are idiots, this type of thing only makes your enemies even more determined to resist and in this case Ukraine will go out of their way to track down the perpetrators and drop a gift on their heads. It’s likely they will be hunted down even if the war ends and they go back to Russia.
Well, ruzzians think they are winning because their propaganda is telling them so. The other reason for this is to make Ukrainians do the same with ruzzian POW, so that ruzzians will be afraid to surrender and will fight more desperately. In fact, ruzzian propaganda does tell ruzzian soldiers that Ukrainians torture ruzzian POWs. So, some ruzzian soldiers prefer to kill themselves instead of surrendering. Now, here's the best part: if ruzzian soldier commits suicide, his relatives won't receive compensation. No exception. As for ruzzians who killed POWs this time, I suspect Ukrainians will find out their names in next 1-4 months and they'll be killed before the war ends.
Because Russian propaganda have spent decades dehumanising Ukrainians. This dates way back to the soviet era when they worked to purge the region of ukrainian nationalism. https://uacrisis.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/2.-HOW-DEHUMANIZATION-WORKS-IN-RUSSIAN-PROPAGANDA-scaled.jpg
A lot of people who fight in wars are psychopaths. Not just in this war, for instance I recall that lots of war criminals during the Yugoslav wars who did heinous things were either sociopaths or psychopaths. I mean just look at the leader of the neo-n\*zi Rusich group (Milchakov), he grew infamous in Russia in early 2010s for posting videos of beheading small animals. He also called for the murder of elderly, women, children. And now he is fighting in Donbass, brutalizing Ukrainian troops whenever he has a chance (apparently he was the orchestrator of that first beheading video that was published last year). He probably had something terrible happen to him in the childhood so he went on that train. That still doesn't excuse them nor their behavior. Putin however capitalizes on folks like that being sent on the frontlines, for they fight with extra zeal as brutality turns them on. And if they die, well the Russian society will have one less scoundrel. It's a win-win for him.
Nature versus nurture is of course a very complex thing - but it's just as likely that this guy was born this way and that nothing particularly bad happened to him. Somewhere out there there's probably an anthropologist who says this kind of psychopathy is a normal variation that ensures species survival in extreme conditions. Who knows. But absolutely this guy needs to be put down as quickly as possible.
I'd argue most humans have the potential to do horrific things They simply need to either be:forced to,filled with rage and hate to an enemy they dehumanize or simply exhausted to te point of not caring about stuff anymore If milions of conscripted soldiers in WW2 could do it then I imagine most of us could to if filled with enough hate,fear and emotional exhaustion
Absolutely. Though I do think your average soldier doesn't take pleasure from the acts they have to commit. I can't remember the exact figures, but a reasonable % of WW2 veterans admitted deliberately missing targets on occasions where their life wasn't directly under threat. But, in keeping with what you say above, I'm sure that % reduced once they saw friends injured and killed, the impact the other side was having on civilians etc.
Based on his new, innovative technique of postcombat interviews, Marshall (1978) concluded in his landmark book Men Against Fire, that only **15 to 20 percent** of the individual riflemen in World War II fired their weapons at an exposed enemy soldier. https://academic.oup.com/book/12748/chapter/162864298#:\~:text=Based%20on%20his%20new%2C%20innovative,at%20an%20exposed%20enemy%20soldier.
Don't forget that there are literally criminals in the ranks of the Russian invasion forces. Russia emptied it's prison cells into it's armed forces, that includes serial killers, murderers and psychopaths
Brutality is embedded in Russian culture. A lot of what Russian parents do to their children would be considered crimes against humanity in the West. I remember a Russian telling me that he didn't know one person his age that had a good relationship with their parents.
I hate it Jack mate I don’t even know what else to do - I go to sleep thinking about UA - really I do. Maybe that’s on me but I hate it.
I think it's a way to stiffen Russian resolve and prevent surrender. The thinking is that by committing public acts of atrocity you have so enraged your enemy that they won't be willing to accept honorable surrender, and so there is no other option than to fight fanatically. Something similar was reported by Anthony Loyd regarding the Serbo/Croatian/Bosnian civil war in his book *My War Gone By, I Miss It So*. In it, a Croatian warlord hangs a Muslim fighter from a construction crane for all to see, and laughs at the author who wonders if it will lower morale. Instead, he points out that the entire town is now considered war criminals by their enemies and that everyone has made an irrevocable choice to join the defense, whether willing or not. I am sitting behind a keyboard and, blissfully, have no experience in such matters. I have never been so happy to be a fat, peaceful, Westerner.
While we can't understand the lack of humanity of these monsters, we must channel our anger into never ever forgetting the things they've done whenever we hear and combat pro Russian sentiments in the west.
Yep. Never ever again. Fuck they are absolute weirdos. That’s it
New DeepStateMap update. In the past 24 hours or so, Russia took hold of some 1.7 km2 of Ukrainian territory. They were [pushed back 0.3 km2 at Olexandropil](https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/48.2715/37.7773) (Toretsk direction), but they took [2 km2 near Ploshchanka](https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/49.2046/38.0481) (West Luhansk direction)
>The garrisons and military bases of the Russian land forces near the Finnish border are still almost empty, although Russia has announced that it will reinforce the forces. >- On average, 80 percent of the equipment and soldiers have been transferred to the war in Ukraine, says a high-ranking Finnish military intelligence source to Yle. >Norway is on the same lines as Finland's military intelligence. >The country's intelligence service has estimated that the number of ground forces has collapsed by 80 percent. However, the figure stated in the annual report only applies to the ground forces of Russia's northern region on the Kola Peninsula. >The intelligence service estimates that after the end of the war in Ukraine, it will take Russia 3-5 years to restore the combat capability of its armed forces. >An intelligence source tells Yle that all the first-line equipment has already been taken to war. Old equipment has also been put into use by refurbishing. >- According to our yardstick, it's pretty bad equipment, but according to the Russian yardstick, it can still be OK, an intelligence source tells Yle. >Even if part of the equipment is rusted, it doesn't matter either, because it's not sensitive high-tech. https://yle.fi/a/74-20093440
What is "restoring" is the question here? There is a good chance they opt for a smaller better trained army that prioritizes drones over armour. After all that has changed in this war things tactically will not return to the status quo
>There is a good chance they opt for a smaller better trained army that prioritizes drones over armour. They cannot bully their neighbors with a smaller army, so that's never going to happen on purpose. Also, in general, their ability for good training is questionable. Honestly, even though they have shown some capacity to adapt, I can't see the Russian army changing dramatically any time soon. At least not for the better.
> There is a good chance they opt for a smaller better trained army that prioritizes drones over armour. That would be a pretty big shift for them, but it's possible since nothing is as good a driver for change as getting your ass beat by a (on paper) much weaker opponent. I would expect them to most likely just keep doing the same thing in the future, so masses of poorly trained soldiers and armored vehicles, just with some drones in the mix, like they're doing now.
Why does Yevgeny Prighozin’s death feel so long ago
He died prior to the recent iteration of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which itself feels like it started eons ago as a result to the daily reports.
I feel like that whole thing was one of those random TV show seaons that just goes off the rails and the next season is back to the same old.
It was pretty crazy to watch his arc over those final 6 months. The rant videos, the almost-coup, and then the demise that pretty much everyone knew was coming. Absolute scumbag, but the dude was shone bright!
If you're like me and tuning into war updates daily, his death can feel many updates ago.
>The shortage of drinking water is getting closer. Wear of treatment plants in Russia reached 90% >Most of the treatment facilities in Russia were built in the 60s and 70s of the last century and were carried out on average by 80% in the country, and in some regions - 90%, said Izvestia, a member of the State Duma Committee on Construction and Housing Sergey Kolunov. >There are about 60,000 in the country. water treatment facilities, 21 thousand sewage pumping stations and 12,000. sewage treatment plants, said Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Ecology, Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Alexander Kogan. Another 20% of the country's population, he said, live in the absence of centralized or local treatment facilities. >At the same time, only 1-2% of the municipal infrastructure is updated annually, although annual wear is 3%, State Duma Deputy Ilya Wolfson emphasizes. >The wear of treatment facilities does not just worsen the state of water (disrupes of untreated wastewater contribute to the reproduction of cyanobacilli, lead to the death of fish and underwater flora, poisoning of people, etc. d.), but also increases the cost of water treatment in cases where drinking water is taken from the reservoirs, said Kogan. >(MTL) [https://www.moscowtimes.eu/2024/06/19/strana-idet-k-defitsitu-pitevoi-vodi-iznos-ochistnih-sooruzhenii-v-rossii-dostig-90-a134348](https://www.moscowtimes.eu/2024/06/19/strana-idet-k-defitsitu-pitevoi-vodi-iznos-ochistnih-sooruzhenii-v-rossii-dostig-90-a134348) The news from "superpower"
If the west wasn’t so weak willed Ukraine could continue to stretch Russian air defense by targeting these with cheap drones, but Sullivan et al would kvetch about it.
Actually, just allowing to use ATACMS on every military targets would greatly change things. Because, the next thing that will happen is ruzzian air fields getting destroyed with cluster munition missiles. It'll greatly hinder ruzzian war efforts, since ruzzian air force constantly launches guided bombs towards Ukrainian positions. What happens instead is ruzzians preparing for this possibility and building hangars to protect their flying junk. And shooting it with AA missiles from F-16/Patriots in the air would be much more expensive and dangerous.
As I understand it most water outside of Moscow in Russia is generally not considered safe to drink without boiling. Probably won't give you cholera or dysentery but has a high chance of giving you a stomach bug.
This is an interesting video that Civ Div just posted on the process of making FPV kamikaze drones and some of the considerations that go into them. I take no responsibility for any watchlists viewing this video may put you on: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzOQ7Q\_P6Ak](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzOQ7Q_P6Ak)
The Coming Siege of Crimea? https://realcontextnews.com/the-coming-siege-of-crimea/
In think this war will be ultimately decided by a rapid capitulation of one side or the other rather than through grinding offensives. In fact, grinding offensives like we see now, with km2 advances at massive costs are what will lead to defeat, rather than victory.
I mean at the end one side will suddenly capitulate. But only because years of grinding finally wore them out.
I agree that actually taking Crimea will be damned difficult and a siege is probably appropriate, but I don't agree with the author that Ukraine should instead focus on attacking the Donbass region head-on. Russia has had a decade to fortify the area and suppress pro-Ukrainian civilians, the area has direct road and rail connections allowing resupply from Russia, plus the heavily industrialized areas would be brutal to capture. An extra 50,000 troops (or whatever) aren't going to be enough to capture it, just more meat for the grinder. If it were me, if you want to insist on an offensive operation, I would try to split the southern and eastern fronts by driving a wedge in the Berdyansk direction. Then you cut Kherson off from the Donbass, and cut Crimea off from Kherson (as noted in the article), and have access to the Sea of Azov to frustrate Russian resupply there and more easily attack the bridge. All that being said, I'm not sure I see any future where either side is able to make massive armored thrusts and take huge swaths of territory. The manpower, training, organization, and equipment for that just aren't available. Attrition and collapse are the only way I see this ending at this point.
Historically Crimea has always been much easier to attack/conquer than Donbas.
The disgusting irony is that probably Russian territory would be much more easy to take than it would be to retake most Ukranian territory, but that would be too much escalation
Yeah, agreed. If you ignore the geopolitical realities, trying to either capture Belgorod and surrounding areas to trade for Ukrainian territory or doing an end run around and behind the Donbass to outflank Russian positions would be far more tactically sound.
Always wonderd if brief incursions into Russian territory like Belgorod to basically destroy military installations,infrastructure etc then move out and use "merely rendering this place ineffective for attacks on our territory" would be a possible or viable move both strategically and from a propaganda pov
With what AD?
>If it were me, I would try to split the southern and eastern fronts by driving a wedge in the Berdyansk direction. Genius idea, they should try it! Oh wait…
I never claimed it would be easy, I just think that if you insist on conducting an offensive, the Berdyansk axis offers the most benefits. Like I said, I don't think either side is really capable of major offensive actions at this point, just hoping to outlast the other.
You're correct in your assessment. But the middle part of your message is completely unnecessary.
Air superiority is what is needed to take back territory on a large scale. Minefields and other fortifications are simply too developed for a quick land assault to break through. Air superiority gives your land troops the time they need to clear and advance while not under constant bombardment. It also allows you to disrupt resupply to the enemy. Of course, actually achieving air superiority is so much harder than saying that you need to get it. F-16s should help, but I'm not sure that they'll be enough to tip the scales enough for Ukraine to feel confident that they own the skies.
Yeah, F-16s will help, but even in an absolute best case scenario, you are probably talking 5 years or more before you can even consider talking about air superiority as a serious proposal. Honestly, I think air superiority and is a bit of a red herring. That's NATO doctrine and the western way to do it, but was never Soviet or Ukrainian doctrine, and the time and resources needed to train an entire air force to achieve it, and an entire army to coordinate with it, just aren't available during a war. I think if Ukraine wants to go on the offensive any time in the next few years they need to develop new ground-based tactics or technologies that don't rely on air superiority. For example, Germany in WWI finally figured out that small unit stormtrooper assault tactics were an effective strategy to break the deadlock in WWI. There's no reason that Ukraine can't come up with some new tactic like that.
> small unit stormtrooper assault tactics were an effective strategy to break the deadlock in WWI. There's no reason that Ukraine can't come up with some new tactic like that. The issue is that in Ukraine both sides have so many drones up that any large concentrations of soldiers gets spotted and is hit by long range fires and drones before they can get to the front lines to attack. And of course this gives you time to warn your soldiers that an attack is coming so they are on high alert, assuming the attack isn't already broken up before it ever gets to them. This is why Russia grinds forwards with wave after of small unit attacks, anything larger is sure to be spotted long before it reaches the front lines and have even less chance of success. So for Ukraine to come up with a new tactic requires a solution which renders constant observation of the battlefield either undoable or the enemy in the area is already so degraded that knowing the attack is coming doesn't do the defenders much good. Jamming is never going to be 100% effective and also affects your own forces as well. So we're most likely talking about long range attacks on positions and trying to cut off their supply routes that they can't mount a decent defense. Easy to say, hard to do of course. Hopefully the F-16's will push back Russian planes that make glide bomb attacks from high altitude as that is a big part of how Russia tries to degrade Ukraine's defences before they send in the waves of small unit attacks. And even then the cost for Russia to take ground is often horrific, that isn't a trade that Ukraine is willing to make. It's a tough problem which neither side has solved yet, Russia is just willing to lose a lot more troops for small gains.
Well, I think you can see the start of the new tactics with how Ukraine has successfully utilized drones, which offer some of the benefits of air superiority without requiring as much investment in a standing air force. But you're basically right - so long as Russia's S-300 and S-400 launchers are effective against Ukraine's air force, and Ukraine's Patriots are effective against Russia, neither side can reasonably expect to achieve air superiority as long as they can keep enough launchers in theater. The real problem with relying on a land assault can really be summed up in the minefields. If they can find an answer to that, it really opens things up. Air superiority is one answer, because it lets you project force beyond your land control and take the time to work through the minefields. Drone forces could become an answer, if you can find a way to leverage your drone forces to create a safe pocket around your traditional land troops while they clear mines.
Yeah, the minefields are a real killer, they are so damn slow to clear and the engineering vehicles are so vulnerable. I've suggested it before and I know some people think it's a dumb idea, but I personally think small (4-6 person) commercial hovercraft offer one potential solution because they are very fast and can pass over the mines without setting them off. Unarmored of course, but I think trading armor for speed makes sense in this case. Basically, fire a short but intense artillery barrage to suppress Russian soldiers, use half a dozen small hovercraft to launch a rapid frontal attack, take the first trench line and set up MANPADS and ATGMS to hold the trench line against counterattacks while engineers clear a path for vehicles, then rinse and repeat for the next minefield and trench line. Once you are through the main minefields, then you can revert to conventional armored vehicles.
The problem is you'd cross the minefield but probably be spotted by someone and when you're forced to dismount at a second line of defense like tank traps or anti-vehicle ditches they'd start firing.
Yeah, it's certainly not a perfect magic bullet solution. But at least it gets you to the tank traps in the first place, which is an improvement over getting stopped by the minefield. Then again, there's a reason I'm a nobody commenting on Reddit, not a military tactician, so....
that or go back to WW1 era tactics where they had mine flails (giant chains on rollers) ahead of tanks. Push armour forward and cut a path through that way. Most russian mines dont seem to be overly complex compared to mines from that era so the ony issue is preventing your advancing mine sweepers from behind hit by enemy artillery, which is where drones come into play.
I think both sides have tried that... but the density of mines either bypasses or destroys the roller fairly quickly. I have certainly seen imagery of destroyed tanks with mine-rollers.
Ukraine have and it's drones. They are moving towards a constant blanket of surveillance drones, anti drone drones to protect them, grenade dropping drones, and fast fpv bombs with last 300m self targeting to negate EW.
They seem to have developed way more destructive drones in just the past few weeks.
Sure, they definitely have drones, but as useful as drones are, they still aren't a total substitute for proper aircraft. The technology just isn't there yet.
They need to get to a place where drones are able to disrupt, distract and\\or destroy enough russian anti-air capability so that proper aircraft are able to take control.
Yep - no way Russian AA systems are designed to cope with cheap drones swarms. Just have to get close enough to launch them. Imagine the crazy drone delivery systems Lockheed Martin must be working on now.
Yes, you are right. From what I have seen, Ukraine and Russia are both really good at using short-range FPV drones, there is continual back-and-forth for control of drone airspace. Anything within 10 miles of the front line is just saturated with drones. And Ukraine has done a fantastic job, far better than Russia, at using pre-programmed, long-range drones to attack strategic targets like airfields and refineries. But right now, Russia has the advantage with mid-range drones, things in the 10 to 100 mile range, with Lancet. And that's the sort of drone you need to take out a lot of air defenses. Something with a decent range that can be guided by a human and isn't reliant on GPS. Unless you can get AI targeting to be good enough to use autonomous drones. I know Ukraine was working on a copy of the Lancet, but I don't think I've seen any reports of it being used yet.
Tokmak. It hasn’t been in the news since last spring, but that is the keystone needed to cut the front down to the sea. And yes, Robotyne and Novoprokopivka are annoyingly close.
They’re pretty far, actually. Robotyne is about a third of the way from the 2023 spring frontlines to tokmak. And Tokmak is maybe 2/5thsof the way to melitopol. Not to mention ukraine recently lost Robotyne. Any large offensive from both sides are deemed to fail.
Looks like the momentum might be shifting in Ukraine's favor as far as drone warfare is concerned. So much footage of these FPV drones in actions lately, you love to see it!
Some kind of breakthrough was made not too long ago that has made FPV drones equipped with thermal cameras economically feasible, thus greatly increasing their lethality. Combined with the volume of these things that they're cranking out each month I'm sure it's been an unpleasant development for the Russians on the ground, to say the least.
The biggest advantage of drones is the oversight advantage, Ukraine had to use their drones in FPV attack capacity because of shell shortages but now that they should be getting enough ammunition I expect they'll use their drones more for recon and targeting than actually attacking themselves. Which would probably be the end of the Russian barn tanks: welding corrugated armour outside protects well against drones but little else.
Turns out, they do much better when they're well armed rather than rationing everything while they wait for the American and European political systems to work.
Deepstatemap numbers. The total area occupied by russia on 1st January 2023 was equal (to the nearest sq km) to the area they occupied on 2nd February 2024. Russia has since expanded control by 477 sq km. Putin's recent demand for Ukrainian surrender included handing over the remaining 26,860 sq km of free oblasts Russia wants. That doesn't include Kharkiv, where 184 sq km of the occupation recently happened. Russia has been progressing around ~100 sq km and losing 250+ tanks and BMPs per month. To complete the conquest that Putin screamed for the other week, the current rate would take about 22 years + 67,000 tanks and BMPs.
Now calculate how many soldiers it will take. Hint: it's more than the population of Russia.
22 years at a casualty rate of 1,000 per day is 8 million. Current Russian population is about 140 million.
Odd, I guess their advances have improved.
More than your math.
They have, but not in any actually significant way. It is worth remembering that 1: No wars are won by killing 100% of the population. Instead, the will to fight will collapse long before that. Germany as a fighting combatant in WW2 was completely beaten with losses totaling \~2 million dead (and about a further 2 million "missing"), with a pre war population of 78 million (including areas claimed before 1939). If Russia would reach the same rate of casualties, that would mean 3,6 million casualties. This is not a perfect measurement, but considering how completely Germany folded towards the end, it is a good starting point. 2: It takes more than just 1 soldier to do the job of an army. Each US soldier is supported by \~4 people, with a quick google saying for each infanteer there is 5-6 others in the army. If we just take the US estimate, those 8 million dead would need a further 32 million supporters (ignoring the fact that these people are easier to "recycle" than soldiers in the line of fire), meaning 40 million people are active in the Russian military then, completely ignoring the ones who arent dead. Compare this to the US military: 1.4 million people. The US doesnt have the world largest army, but it does have the largest military budget and twice the population (and change). It is in no way realistic to say that 8 million casualties wouldnt collaps the entire Russian system. Yes, it's only 2,5% of their population, but it's a significant portion of their economy and capabilities as a state. That's 8 million (plus supporting, plus surviving other soldiers) that's not working in industry, with social wellfare, as doctors etc etc. As a sidenote, Russian vehicles would run out far before they reach 8 million dead. Alot of hay is being made of Russia producing more tanks etc that their western counterpart, but alot of these arent actually being made fresh from scrap, theyre reactivated from storage. Russia in its reporting seldomly makes a distinction between the two meaning reports looking at Russia dont make the distinction either. Old tanks still have cannons and still stop bullets, but ask a soldier if theyd rather fight something produced in 2019 or something produced in the 1950's and youll have a clear answer. Dont get me wrong, Russia has ALOT of metal and wont fold due to that bottle neck for something like 2-3 years, but you cant lose 2856 tanks (Oryx visually confirmed March 2024) and not feel it. They can produce an impressive amount of brand new T90M, but the number they produce seems to be about 50-60 tanks per year... AFTER ramping up production. That cant keep up with how many are lost in Ukraine, nowhere near. In the last two and a half years of the war, we can estimate roughly \~120-150 tanks have been produced. And 2856 destroyed. The Soviet stockpiles are vast. Theyre not 1000+ tanks lost per year for 22 years vast. (Also small note: Russia has started bringing out vehicles that they havent brought out basically at all in the entirety of this massive conflict. They still shoot, they still stop bullets, but there is a reason they havent been brought out basically at all in this war)
Germany had WW2 military deaths of about 4m and wounded about the same out of a pre-war population of 80m or about 10% total casualties. If the same happened to Russia it would no doubt collapse. However, OP claimed that 22 years of war at the current intensity would kill more than the entire population of Russia, which is obviously wrong.
And that's just to fully take the four "annexed" provinces. We know he won't stop there
From NAFOraccoon: Many have been wondering why russia cannot rescue their guys surrounded at the aggregate plant The answer is, their offensive potential is exhausted & Ukrainians are in complete control Ukrainians are bombarding the sacrificial sukas using Stugna P while eating bread & sausage. https://x.com/naforaccoon/status/1803084855321698316?s=46&t=VUqNqjdwahL39seuvtxeiQ
They actually eat slana , smoked pig fat on bread with fresh onion 🧅. Fucking legends man !
Sounds damn good to me honestly.
We as Romanians have a breed of pig who’s layer of fat is very thick, the slana from that pig is usually very soft and tasty,it melts in your mouth you don’t need to chew it even “ cured “ as someone corrected me above. With the harder pieces we just put them on a wood stick and fry it very slowly and patiently and we drip the melted fat on slices of fresh bread and onion. Plum, pears or apple brandy is a must aperitif.
Ate it as a kid with my rural grandparents. People are wired to enjoy the combination of bread, fat, salt, smoke, and acid.
Or just a very potent plum brandy 🥃
It’s cured not smoked. But it is damn good.
The Chimera - a new type of drone France is sending to Ukraine!: https://x.com/aidefranceukr/status/1803360958259061189?s=46&t=VUqNqjdwahL39seuvtxeiQ
Controlled by 50km long fiber optics cable?
Worth trying. Hopefully it can cut the wire and return home if tangled.
>“There is no need for radio frequency. The Chimera is invisible! The most sophisticated jamming systems, especially those of the Russians, cannot do anything”. >Developed by entrepreneur Jérôme Beuclair, the Chimera is a propeller-driven drone capable of carrying a 155 mm shell into the air. So far, 🇺🇦 has bought 2️⃣5️⃣0️⃣ units. I highly doubt that it's fully jam resistant. But holy shit, those drone drop videos are about to get interesting. Have you ever seen a direct hit of a 155 onto someone's head? We're about to find out.
> I highly doubt that it's fully jam resistant. It's wire guided, which should make it **very** resistant to jamming if correctly done. It's done by a new small company which currently has no other customer. I guess we'll know soon enough whether it's a good weapon or not.
So it has 250km of wire behind it? Seems a bit much to me
The wire is 50km long. It's optical fiber.
Yea oopsie but still 50km of wire?
Yes, that's a lot. Wire guided missiles have less than 10km I think. I assume it kind of works as they managed to make a sale. I have no idea whether it works well enough in real conditions.
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Got it, I didn't read the comment section where that was said. Thanks for clarifying.
> During my meeting with Poland’s Sejm Marshal @szymon_hołownia, we discussed the frontline situation and Russia’s ongoing aerial terror. We also talked about cooperation to protect Ukrainian skies. > Separately, we reviewed the Global Peace Summit outcomes and preparations for signing a bilateral security agreement. > We appreciate Poland's advocacy for Ukraine's EU membership and are grateful for its comprehensive assistance to our country. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1803395696604709254
> I am grateful to Antigua and Barbuda for joining the Global Peace Summit’s communiqué. > It is the first country that did not attend the Summit but later joined the final document. > This demonstrates that our Peace Formula and vision for a just and lasting peace are shared by every continent and region of the world, from Europe to the Caribbean. And this coalition will only grow. > A truly stable world is one of real equality, where all nations have a say and can demonstrate their leadership. > This is precisely why we created the Peace Summit format, which we will continue to develop by involving new participants and working thoroughly to bring peace closer. #PathtoPeace #PeaceforUkraine https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1803312143887966617 > One more signature for the first Peace Summit communique. The Organization of American States joined the document. > I am grateful to @OAS_official, an important regional organization that brings together 32 states from South and North America and its Secretary General @Almagro_OEA2015 for supporting global efforts to restore the UN Charter's full strength. > The communique of the first Peace Summit is being signed by an increasing number of states and organizations, demonstrating its global significance. The document reinforces respect for international law's fundamental norms, which protect all peace-loving nations. > We continue to encourage everyone to join our global efforts that promote equality for all nations, bring a just peace for Ukraine closer, and provide opportunities for global leadership. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1803387444982579216
Every country that's ever been subject to colonialism should sign this very basic document. It's crazy that countries like South Africa and RDC did not sign it given their horrific experience with colonial powers committing atrocious crimes against them. And basically all African countries are dependent on Ukrainian grain, so they should come together and sign it.
> Our mobile firing groups and everyone in the Ukrainian Defense Forces fighting against Russian aerial terror deserve our deepest gratitude and further reinforcement. > I highly appreciate all of the efforts to protect Ukrainian lives and disrupt Russia’s plans to terrorize our people. > I also extend my gratitude to everyone around the world who is helping to build the Ukrainian air shield, which will serve as the foundation for the sky shield of our entire Europe. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1803359762114867550
> I am grateful to our Danish partners and Minister @troelslundp for the 19th military aid package for Ukraine. > Among other, the package includes financial support for our defense industry - DKK 1.2 billion (2 donation packages) for 🇺🇦 defense industry acquisitions. > F-16 additional material donation is also on the list. https://x.com/rustem_umerov/status/1803348418384810257
Is this 1k plus becoming a trend lately or ? Unfortunately I am during an exam period and I didn’t follow up much lately .
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 19.06.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 529,750 (+1,130) people, tanks ‒ 7984 (+10) units, armored combat vehicles ‒ 15319 (+12) units, artillery systems – 14,007 (+48) units, MLRS – 1104 (+0) units, air defense equipment ‒ 857 (+4) units, aircraft – 359 (+0) units, helicopters – 326 (+0) units, Operational-tactical UAV – 11221 (+34), cruise missiles ‒ 2297 (+0), ships/boats ‒ 28 (+0) units, submarines - 1 (+0) units, automotive equipment and tank trucks - 19,078 (+47) units, special equipment ‒ 2351 (+7) The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/19/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1130-okupantiv-48-artilerijskih-sistem/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/19/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1130-okupantiv-48-artilerijskih-sistem/)
Governor: Kupiansk direction is more important for Russia than offensive north of Kharkiv >
Russia begging North Korea for weapons and ammo was not on my 2021 bingo card. My how the mighty have fallen.
NK humiliating ruzzian ministers is a new thing too :D
If you think 2021 is wild, just wait till you see what happens in 2022.
> If you think 2021 is wild, just wait till you see what happens in 2022. There's no way the virus would mutate (making the vaccine less-effective) and continue to wreck our culture for another year, right? And there won't be crazed groups of assholes online spreading misinformation about anti-vax gaining political power into the runup of 2024 elections. ----- Oh, lemme guess. You're talking about foreign policy events? Does ISIS-K in Afghanistan start stirring up shit again forcing us back to Afghanistan? I'm so over that as of 2021, hopefully no other major foreign policy events happen. ------- ... Its like the old joke goes: What if COVID19 entering the start of 2020 was not the start of a bad year... but instead the start of a bad decade?
My personal favorite was on Jan 6/7 of 2021 were all the Gatsby toast memes of "welp, here's to hoping 2021 will be better then 2020."
I have some bad news bud, you’ve missed a few years somehow.
Probably encased in carbonite for two years.
Covid man…
The Russian delegation had entered the meeting room but were then told to get out because Dear Leader is supposed to be seated first…. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1803416735690682462?s=46&t=VUqNqjdwahL39seuvtxeiQ
The weirdest part is that this video was shared with the world. What can have been the intent ?
Humiliation. Demonstration of power. And well deserved too. Beggars can be choosers.
It was NK - an obvious way to humiliate Putin. (I am assuming it was NK, since they don’t allow photography or video by any outsiders)
It's an old Putin trick, so using it against him is an easy demonstration of power.
My favorite is the use of the extremely low chair. Nobody looks powerful when their knees are higher than their hips.
The proud powerful almighty Russia is now reduced to waiting in the hallways for the leader of N. Korea to be seated first. What a joke of a country.
and then Putin comes last because likes to make people wait
"Roscosmos head" Russia trading space technologies for ammunition. Pathetic.
You mean ballistic missile technology.
Which is space technology.
If Ukraine can get the average number of Russian casualties up to ~1800 per day while minimizing their own, then the same number of Russian soldiers being made combat ineffective will be the same as the number of Russian boys born every day. It's completely not possible to sustain. That would be the absolute hard limit on what Russia can handle for a very short period ( ignoring foreign mercenaries which will quickly fall off as Russian casualties mount).
We should hand off some Warthogs, get them converted over to fully remote controlled, and use that as additional drone support.
> hand off some Warthogs, They look more like a big cat. Like a Puma.
I understood that reference Tex!
Even before the war, more russians were dying than being born. So this number wouldn't change a thing.
I don't think you're "racing" the birth rate or anything similar. You need to remove russians (1) more quickly than they can be sent into theatre for operational gains or (2) more quickly than they can be recruited and trained for strategic gains. Russia has probably mostly "used up" its supply of prison meat, and sacrificial soldiers from the 2014 occupied areas. Supply and demand means, as it's harder to get volunteers they'll have to raise salaries even more. Or they'll mobilise people Putin considers "valuable", meaning white slavic men from the main cities. That comes with major political risks. So we've seen that Putin avoids doing that until the front cracks, like Kharkiv in 2022. Next time we want the front to crack and for an equipped Ukrainian army to make much bigger gains.
It's even worse for Russia when you consider the ~16 year gap from baby to soldier. Additionally when you wound a Russian soldier, you take 3 people out of the battle. The initial soldier, the one to drag him back, and the medic.
The medic...good one. Russia leave their men to die.
Hard disagree with your third point. We’ve seen plenty of Russians suffer and die alone, completely unassisted after their initial injuries.
Russian casualties are high when they're assaulting. If Russia really starts running low on men - they'll just stagger assaults more.
I suspect if that happens you will see Russia dig in and adopt a mainly defensive posture - in an effort to hold the line until after US elections, depending on Trump to cut off aid to Ukraine. We saw what happened when the Republicans blocked aid for months - Russia gained an advantage and was able to press an offensive. Russia may be betting on that effect.
They will adapt to the circumstances. In some areas adopting defense when needed and assaulting elsewhere when possible. They’re not gonna get atop down command that says everyone hunker down. If you’re currently located somewhere along the front that’s less defensible. You’d have to move back somewhere defensible and then give up territory. Every acre Russia holds is a bargaining chip.
There is no maybe about it. This war is for sure continuing until the election results are clear.
Vote for Democrats up and down the ballot!
Probably less than that right now. Estimates are that Russia can train/equip 30k a month.
Recent war on the rocks episode states that the 30k/month was true last year/some months ago and that it's probably less new. Of course can't be known for sure but Koffman estimates 20-25k.
Since their casualty rate is currently over 1k a day - ouch.
Remember to take those #s with a large grain of salt. When you're not actually counting them in front of you it's guesswork, not to mention propaganda purposes. It's likely 30% overcounted for civilian and military morale.
I understand that the math will never be perfect in war, but 30% still means they can't keep up.
The breakpoint is earlier than that. You forgot there is a percentage of any society that is rendered unfit for the workforce during their lives and the percentage that leaves the country never to return(others arrive so this one usually cancels out a little). In functional workforce metrics Russia is likely already in the negatives or very close.
Well, new children are pretty irrelevant unless this war lasts another 18 years.
Why 18? Hitler used little kids when things got rough, Putin wouldn't fall behind. Not to mention this would be a huge propaganda win: "Little Boris was 10 y.o. loved trains and dreamed becoming a train driver when he grow up. His life was cut short by Ukrainian Nazis...". Burried deep inside the article: "...while he was storming Chasiv Yar", but who reads that?
There is a 10 year gap from baby to 10 year old still. It's just like the problem of reforestation. Yeah, you can cut a tree down and even plant 3x the saplings, but the time to maturity is a long way off.
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The simple and long answer are both no.
I remember seeing both a Ukrainian and a Russian source where they collect data via social media, local news etc. https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-over-50-400-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/
Soldiers or civilians?
Once again Western nations get rewarded for supplying humanitarian aid to dictatorships and radical hellholes. O wait.
Somebody is funding Putin, Hamas, Israel, China, North Korea
North Korea doing a sunflower parade in front of Putin. I guess the memes didn't reach North Korea yet. https://x.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1803373790614736978
Zero chance that was an unplanned oopsie. NK gives Putin a master class in establishing the pecking order on home turf.
Yep, they're domming him. It's quite obvious. Risky move when you're playing with a guy that has absolutely no rules or limits to his depravity.
They actually used sunflowers! Oh man, that is absolutely hilarious.
From the comments: > They're crying out "I love Putin" in English! Guess we know who the real audience is. Kinda funny.
Alternate headline: Trump BFFs take ride in a German built car.
This happens when you don't use Internet, get generals that don't tell you of actual losses and have to beg international pariah for ammunition.
Beg North Korea. Who's next on the tour, Haiti?
"😍🔥 🇺🇦Ukrainian «BULAVA» battalion of the Presidential Brigade strikes 🇷🇺Russian 220mm heavy flame-throwing system TOS-1A «Solntsepek» with night-vision FPV drones." https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1803364394379739195?t=Ye92ecdNRSHUrxiBtiuJWQ&s=19
I saw exactly nothing in this video. The FPV had so much noise that I couldnt see what was going on. Then the surveying drone footage cut out before the fpv hit it.
Probably why Andrew Perpetua has it marked as damaged rather than destroyed.
Can't imagine China is thrilled with the NK visit.
well they likely have more bad news coming. a statement needs to be made in the south China sea. If Biden wins this election Russia will likly fold in Ukraine and then the US and the pacific allies need to make some example there VS China. China is doing the same thing Russia did only because Russia has been allowed to get away with it in Ukraine.
Of course not. NK is a massive destabilising factor in China’s periphery.
Why though? NK won't suddenly become less friendly with China because of this. China's main interest in NK is it serving as a buffer zone. It doesn't stop serving this function if it trades a bit more with Russia. In fact, I think China would prefer if NK normalized a bit.
ruzzia is giving NK technologies for nuclear subs and also technologies allowing NK to make precise nuclear strikes on any location in US. What do you think is going to happen next? More stuff like US military bases near China. More Western weapons flooding Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc. Japan significantly increasing defense spending. Basically all the things China prefers not to happen.
Because NK fraternizing with Russia only invites more US interest into the region, and China doesn't want the US in the area anymore than they already are.
Because China is scared of dealing with a massive refugee problem if NK ever falls completely apart and can’t stop their starving populace from storming the border
Yes, but closer ties with Russia will only make that less likely to happen. NK is trading their garbage weapons for actually useful stuff.