The most recent flailing and pouting coming from the Kremlin certainly appears as if they're frustrated with their inability to make any significant gain.
As an American I think it's time Halliburton and other American PMC's provide 'support' so that Delta can start affecting.
[OSINT agency reveals details of Russian soldiers behind attacks on Kharkiv Oblast | New Voice of Ukraine | June 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/molfar-identified-55-russian-soldiers-responsible-for-daily-attacks-on-kharkiv-and-oblast-50431053.html)
*Fifty-five Russian soldiers involved in the daily attacks on Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast and its administrative center were identified by the Molfar open-source intelligence (OSINT) agency and named on its website, along with their ranks, home addresses, phone numbers, family information, and passport data.*
*They serve in military unit 45117, based in Voronezh, Russia, where the 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment is stationed. This unit regularly receives orders to bomb Kharkiv, including the deadly May 25 strike on the Epicenter hypermarket that killed 19 people, and repeated attacks on nearby Derhachi, Vovchansk, and other settlements in the region.*
*Notable individuals on the list include Oleg Makovetsky, a native of Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast, a Major General and commander of the 6th Army of the Russian Air Force and Air Defense, who gives orders to bomb Ukrainian cities.*
*Colonel Oleksei Loboda, commander of the 47th Bomber Aviation Regiment, is also identified as ordering attacks on residential areas and civilians.*
*The report also mentioned Maksim Krishtop, the deputy commander of the 47th Bomber Aviation Regiment, who was captured and exchanged in 2023, was involved in the strikes.*
*Molfar stressed that everyone on the list, which also names engineers and pilots, including those who carry out attacks with unguided munitions, are involved in “numerous war crimes” and must face the consequences. "They are knowingly carrying out criminal orders. But they must also realize the inevitability of punishment for these crimes," the report said.*
*Russian forces are carrying out daily attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns with glide bombs, missiles, drones, artillery, and various other weapons. The frontline oblasts of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya, Kherson, Sumy, Donetsk, and Luhansk are among the hardest hit, along with the southern oblasts of Odesa and Mykolaiv.*
*On June 29, at least 12 civilians were injured and five others went missing in a Russian missile strike on the administrative center of Dnipro, which damaged a multi-story residential building.*
*Four people were killed and 10 others were wounded by Russian shelling in Ukraine's frontline Kherson Oblast over the past day, regional Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on Telegram on the morning of June 29.*
I think there is a good chance they take a lot of land back, but I doubt they'll encircle that many forces. Kherson told us that Russia knows when to run.
>Ukraine is allocating significant resources to expedite advances in the Vovchansk direction, aiming for a decisive victory through the use of encirclement.
[Ukraine’s explosive ordnance disposal units clear 30,000 square kilometers of land in two years | EuroMaidenPress | June 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/06/29/ukraines-explosive-ordnance-disposal-units-clear-30000-square-kilometers-of-land-in-two-years/)
*Ukrainian Colonel Ruslan Berehulia, the head of the Main Department of Mine Action, said that Defense Ministry specialists checked and cleared 30,000 square kilometers of Ukraine during the last two years, as per ArmyInform.*
*The area is comparable to the size of countries like Belgium (30.7 thousand square km) or Moldova (33.8 thousand square km).*
*Since 2022, nearly 174,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian land have been contaminated with explosives. As a result, 144,000 square kilometers are considered to be potentially dangerous due to mines and explosive remnants of war, noted Ruslan Berehulia.*
*In April 2022, Ukraine set up the Corps of Deminers. As of 2024, units from the Defense Ministry and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have joined the organization to carry out tasks in de-occupied territories.*
*According to him, these units already operate in Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Kharkiv regions. The Corps of Deminers will include 5,000 specialists.*
*Earlier, Ukrainian Navy sailors destroyed a World War II-era naval anchor mine found in one of the shipping channels in the Black Sea, the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Facebook.*
The defenestrations of Minsk continue. A lot of Belarusian politicians have been getting killed since the war started. I have yet to see analysis on who is doing it and why.
https://x.com/brennpunktua/status/1807173024174559477
Just saw a post on Musklinks that a foreign legion person confirmed first strikes by F16 in Ukraine, sounds like the day has finally arrived.
Bless those pilots, those airframes, and all who worked to make it happen.
Happy hunting!
Edit: https://x.com/PeurAvion/status/1806995235739664524
The amount of work since 2022 to arrive at this exact moment is mind boggling. From nothing to fully fledged NATO-level aviation (ok, not quite here yet), in two years, with forests of red tape on the way and multiple countries with different interests and sensitivities involved.
It's very hard to compare this war to any other in history, but is there any equivalent in the past of a massive shift/upgrade like that ?
Sort of an odd choice, but the American Revolution in some ways, from barely organized militias to a properly drilled European style army with siege artillery.
Oryz update over last few days. Russian-Ukrainian losses then my speculation
- tanks: 9-4
- IFBs: 17-5
- mobile artillery: 5-0
- missile air defence: 2-0
Frontline ratio not so great today but there were other good updates recently. As soon as you look at artillery and SAMs it's a good update though.
I'm still seriously concerned about Ukraine's tank fleet, the public info combined with visible losses look really bad. Some sources think Ukraine is ok for a bit longer but I believe they need more new promises sometime soon.
That's my impression too, but plenty of smart people and some soldiers I've seen interviewed talk about tank uses.
I guess we'll see but the Ukrainian tank attrition has been unsustainable for the last month or perhaps more, which suggests they're using them a lot. I suspect because they have a use, and in offensives it'd be even more.
An earlier DeepStateMap update for today. According to it, Ukraine has liberated some 1.6 km2 of [Serebryanske Forest, near Bilohorivka](https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/48.9399/38.1995). There is definitely a momentum in Ukraine's favor in that section of the frontline ([Terny-Serebryanske-Bilohorivka](https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/49.0077/38.1102)).
Ukraine hasn't liberated that much land since 2024 started, less than 25 km2 in total. However, of those, nearly 12 km2 were liberated this June (they made some small gains at Luhivske on June 2nd (Zaporizhzhia front), and also two gains at Serebryanske and one at Terny, these past few days)
[ Ukraine Returns 10 Civilian Prisoners from Russian, Belarusian Captivity | Kyiv Post | June 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/35058)
*In a deal mediated by the Vatican, Ukraine managed to secure the return of 10 civilian prisoners from Russian and Belarusian captivity, announced President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday evening.*
*“Thanks to everyone who helped! Thanks to our team working on the release of prisoners. I would also like to note the Vatican's efforts to bring these people home,” said Zelensky in his Telegram announcement.*
*The prisoners returned included a Crimean Tatar politician and two priests.*
*This included Nariman Dzhelal, deputy chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people – the only higher authorized representative and executive body of the Crimean Tatar population – who was likely captured in Crimea in 2021.*
*Bohdan Geleta and Ivan Levitskyi, two priests from the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, were captured in Berdyansk after the 2022 full-scale invasion for reportedly resisting the occupying Russian troops.*
*Olena Pekh, a historian and researcher at the Horlivka Art Museum in the Donetsk region, was detained by local occupation regimes in 2018. Valery Matyushenko, a political prisoner, was detained by occupation regimes in the Donetsk region in July 2017 and illegally sentenced to 10 years in prison. The remaining civilian prisoners – Mykola Shvets, Natalia Zakharenko, Pavlo Kuprienko, Lyudmila Honcharenko and Kateryna Bryukhanova – were originally arrested in Belarus, including on charges of aiding the Ukrainian forces by providing information on Russian military movements, as reported by AFP.*
*Ukraine’s Coordinating Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War said the return of the 10 civilian prisoners was part of the 53rd prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, which started on June 25 with the release of 90 Ukrainian soldiers.*
*However, the role of the Vatican State, as well as the identity of Russian prisoners exchanged in return for the Ukrainian civilian prisoners, is not immediately clear.*
Akhmat and the 153rd tank regiment refused orders in Vovchansk when they found themselves on the frontlines, no longer as backup
Russian TG
https://x.com/albafella1/status/1807134507428163622?s=46
> On the sidelines of the Dubrovnik Forum in Croatia, I met Special Representative of the Chinese Government on European Affairs Wu Hongbo.
> I informed him about the first Peace Summit, which was held in Switzerland. We exchanged views on further efforts to restore just and lasting peace in Ukraine based on respect to the UN Charter and international law.
> Ukraine and China will continue dialogue on peace and development. I emphasized the importance of strategically viewing our relationship both from a bilateral perspective and through the lens of Ukraine’s future membership in the European Union.
https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1807008152245977437
> During our meeting, Armenia’s Foreign Minister @AraratMirzoyan and I discussed the security situation in Europe and the South Caucasus.
> I thanked Armenia for attending the first Peace Summit in Switzerland and informed my counterpart about further work on implementing the Peace Formula on the path to a just and sustainable peace in Ukraine.
> We also focused on ways to deepen our bilateral ties and international cooperation, particularly in light of Ukraine’s future EU membership.
https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1807032571009679834
> I was pleased to meet with North Macedonia’s newly appointed Foreign Minister @TimcoMucunski.
> We discussed ways to expand our bilateral cooperation and advance our countries’ EU accession process. We also focused on the preparation of our bilateral security agreement.
> I thanked North Macedonia for attending the inaugural Peace Summit. We discussed further joint steps to restore international security and long-term peace in accordance with the UN Charter and the Peace Formula.
https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1807039694129041514
I was honestly very scared of the newly elected ruling party of North Macedonia, as they were very anti-NATO and Russophilic in the past. But it seems that ever since Gruevski was ousted, they slowly moderated their stances, and recently did a 180 and now support Ukraine.
> During our today’s discussion at @DubrovnikForum in Croatia, I stressed that Ukraine's victory will be the creation of a reality in which a new Russian attack will be impossible.
> As we know from our own recent history, as well as from the history of other regions, peace without justice leads to a new war. Therefore, the goal is not just to end the war, but to create a reality in which peace is just and lasting, and a new war becomes impossible.
> In this context, the Peace Summit in Switzerland was key. It brought together countries from all over the world—north, south, east, and west—and demonstrated that they all share adherence to the he UN Charter, the principles of international law and the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries.
> When we see that all these countries are ready to stand together and act together, it certainly gives us confidence that a just and lasting peace is possible. #DubrovnikForum2024
https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1806999435559289050
> In Dubrovnik, I met with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State @StateEUR Jim O’Brien to thank the United States for its firm support for Ukraine.
> We appreciate the latest critical U.S. decisions to support Ukrainian strikes on military targets in Russia, to prioritize Ukraine in air defense ammunition supplies, and its work with third countries to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities.
> Delivering additional Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine was the main focus of our conversation. We positively assessed progress made and coordinated next steps to this end. We also discussed joint efforts to provide Ukraine with additional weapons and ammunition.
> Upcoming NATO summit in Washington and its expected outcomes were on the agenda, too.
https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1807049415963644042
>Ukrainian forces have driven Russians out of Terny and Yampolivka in Donetsk Oblast, securing the liberated positions, the press service of the 12th Azov Special Purpose Brigade reported on Telegram on June 29.
>The Russians retreated following a successful operation conducted by the 12th Azov Special Operations Brigade, the 95th Air Assault Brigade, and adjacent units.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/russians-retreated-from-terny-and-yampolovka-azov-released-a-video-from-defended-positions-50431061.html
> Forbes: Russians may have lost an entire brigade in Vovchansk
> A few weeks after the start of the offensive, 30,000 Russian troops are bogged down in the city of Vovchansk.
OK, does that mean a brigade is 30,000 people -- or is that intentionally misleading (or heck, even just plain lazy) reporting? It's never been clear to me...
No a brigade is not 30k. They've supposedly lost a brigade already, while 30k are claimed to be surrounded.
If that's true and it holds (which it might not, Russia will be trying hard to break through), it would be a lot more than a brigade.
(edit: small correction)
The most modern estimate of the Russian TO&E I can find, is from the Foreign Military Studies Office from 2016, called the “Russian way of war”. According to this, Russian motor rifle brigades have an authorized strength of 3,000 to 4,500 troops. This makes them about as big as two regiments of 2,000 each, which is the building block of most divisions. A brigade is traditionally half a division size in Russia.
Pre-2022 formation sources aren't very helpful. That's a definition on paper, not reality. Both Ukraine and Russia regularly fight with formations that would be considered too understrength to be a complete unit by NATO standards. 50% and lower fulfilment is not unusual.
30k is the number of troops in kursk and belgorod. As already stated one brigade should be around 3 to 4.5k depending on if it's a full brigade and the type (infantry assault brigades have more manpower than artillery or tank brigades).
A normal Russian brigade should have about 3-4.5k. 30k is probably the whole number of russians fighting in and around Vovchansk, not that they’ve lost so many. I mean, *we expect* them to lose 30k for a small town, but still.
I read an article on this a few days ago. I believe that Brigade was about 2,000 people and naturally a part of the greater 30K. The brigade was repeatedly sent on missions taking huge losses, then some troops were refusing to fight and now it seems they’re all gone. There had been a social media post from a member saying they were on day 3 with no food, water or support during their stretch of combat.
thanks, my crib notes from the video,
T72 - not enough left to field replacement
T90 - not enough produced
T55 & T62 - have inv. but ancient
T80 -
only viable MBT left in significant number
turbine engine, more complex than diesel, more fuel
in past wars T72 was the preferred tank over the T80
started with 1200, now less than 300
in a vatnik's fantasy, if all covered garages had T80's, there's 1000 left
CC's upper possible estimate is 500 T80's left in storage
T80's will never completely disappear as there are repair and recycle facilities for that model.
> in a vatnik's fantasy, if all covered garages had T80's, there's 1000 left
And as he points out logic dictates that the tanks in the best condition were most likely in the garages so most of them are probably already gone as you would of course take the ones easiest to get back into service first. No matter how you look at it when all the examples that don't look like they're in ruins are already gone from outside it's got to mean in a year or two at most Russia is going to only have the couple hundred new tanks a month that they can produce which is not nearly enough to replace losses. And that 200 a month in new tank production is probably a generous estimate, I've seen everything from 30-40, to 140 with 200 the largest number suggested that I have come across.
So as Covert Cabal said they won't ever completely run out but they will have far fewer tanks on the front lines than they can field at present. Edit: typo
They are currently being used to drive infantry to the front line, shoot at the enemy, then flee. Not much training required.
If they ever have to engage in some combined ops or tank vs tank warfare, training makes all the difference.
So, if I understood correctly, there were ~15,000 tanks of two varieties pre-war, and ~8000 lost so far from the various "Daily Combat Losses" posts.
Half gone in two years. Two more years plus, until they "run out". Not particularly encouraging.
They have a very large active battle-front and other borders they need to arm, so they need large numbers of vehicles distributed along that line. The use of alternate transport and aged tanks mean it is already limiting their capabilities and that should continue to get worse given how many they are losing in offensive actions.
The count is from satellite photos, so condition is not easy to determine, in addition to their being large sheds on site. It is quite likely some percentage have already been looted for parts.
That’s very encouraging! If Russia runs out, even though it’s four years of war, we’re talking about a massive stockpile that can never be reactivated again. Russia as a threat to all of Europe is neutralized and Ukraine’s defensive position post-war is very strong.
They lack the industrial facilities to pump out tanks. They can't create factories and train workers out of thin air. They have a severe shortage of weapons grade steel. You're talking something that under ideal circumstances takes almost a decade to get up and running to any reasonable scale.
Russia doesn’t lack factories or workers. The arms industry is 20% of the manufacturing industry
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_industry_of_Russia
The Russian Arms industry was in significant decline resulting in the Putin era consolidation of companies and reduction in manufacturing facilities.
You are missing decades of post-Soviet industrial decline and corruption.
Russian Federation built equipment is junk while their more reliable Soviet era equipment stockpile is drained at a rate faster than the Russian Federation has ever built them.
They absolutely lack tank factories. IIRC they only have one operational factory making T90's and one factory doing refurbishments on T72's. All other refurbishments are being done hodgepodge. It's just not possible for them to produce enough to mitigate losses.
Then why don't we see masses of newly built tanks arriving on the frontline? Why do we see only handful of those come of out the factories every month, while seeing all the old stockpile disappearing so quickly?
Why use your new stuff on the frontline when the old equipment can handle the gap? Why rush production when you need to shift lines over and you’re attempting to mitigate the full shift to a work economy?
Same reason Europe is only recently shifting their production facilities towards arms and equipment
Hell, there’s even reports the T64’s thicker armor is mitigating the impact of drones and giving it higher serviceability than the T72
The Russian Federation is not the industrial powerhouse the Soviet Union was.
Tanks now take a lot more to make than WWII era tanks.
Russia does not have the ability to even get close to those numbers now.
You don’t have to make current tanks, you can just mass create older designs that are cheaper and quicker to pump out
The idea that Russia is going to run out of tanks is silly
They'll never run out but they'll run low. Which means using them more and more sparingly as time goes on. This will severely weaken their offensive capabilities as commanders will be more adverse to losing them. Remotely keeping up with daily losses in their current state is an absolute impossibility.
I disagree with running low entirely. It’s also a two pronged issue, they can out produce Ukraine’s production and still maintain higher amounts on the battlefield
Ukraine is losing significantly less tanks every day than Russia, they don't have the same attritional rate even when production is taken into account.
Running low is simple math. They're losing as many tanks as they can produce in a month every 2-3 days. Their Soviet stock piles are rapidly depleting and they're starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel. Russia simply doesn't have the tank factories to change that equation.
Ukraine has lost significantly less *because they’re on the defensive*. Losses matched Russian rates during the counteroffensive. They also have significantly less in the first place to use. They did not have built up stockpiles even close to Russia, hence the need for foreign armor despite their losses being of T64 and T72 being in the hundreds
You can’t argue a Ukrainian victory without accounting for attrition rates being on an offensive basis, not defensive
Even if they could reactivate 15,000, and they can't, many of those are scrap already, they couldn't reactivate 10,000 in 4 years. They don't have 2 more years.
They don't have the engines to place into the tanks in storage. Many parts, they don't have optics for all of them, they're relying on North Korea, Iran, Syria, and Belarus.
A modern FPV drone carries enough ordinance to punch through the armor of any Cold War Era piece of shit the Russians can trundle out to the front lines. I actually think they are doing Ukraine a favor by putting an experienced tank crew in such a vulnerable target, inevitably destroyed by one guy sitting at a desk miles away from the frontline.
Much better than Russia having manufacturing capability equal to their current losses, and still better than an estimate that they run out in four years. Also I think that as Ukraine receives more and more weaponry from the west, their capabilities grow stronger. So assuming linear loss rates on the Russian side might not be accurate.
keep in mind that treating numbers of "tanks in storage" for "can be used in battle" is kind of misleading. They were not normally handled - this is 100% for sure - and 8000 can be very well the best of them. I mean easiest to repair are naturally repairing first - using parts from the rest of the stock
The turtle tanks that have been showing up appears to be used for troop transport and to soak up drones. They only sometimes have functioning turrets as they dip into less functional stocks for those.
I think ultimately if it’s in a state where it can propel forward, it will end up on the battlefield and fill one function or another.
Damn, you're good! I checked like an hour ago and he hadn't posted anything yet. I've been anxiously awaiting the next tank count.
Edit - Best estimate is that storage runs out around early 2026.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 06.29.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 541,560 (+1,070) people,
tanks ‒ 8073 (+7) units,
armored combat vehicles ‒ 15,505 (+25) units,
of artillery systems — 14,480 (+57) units,
MLRS – 1109 (+0) units,
air defense equipment ‒ 871 (+0) units,
aircraft – 360 (+0) units,
helicopters – 326 (+0) units,
UAVs of operational-tactical level - 11538 (+29),
cruise missiles ‒ 2331 (+2),
ships/boats ‒ 28 (+0) units,
submarines - 1 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 19,568 (+54) units,
special equipment ‒ 2436 (+5)
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win!
Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/29/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1070-okupantiv-57-artilerijskih-sistem-25-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/29/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1070-okupantiv-57-artilerijskih-sistem-25-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/)
Compilation of previously unpublished SBU strikes on Russian air defence systems. 4xTOR, 3xPantsir-S1 and 1xBUK air defence system equipment were targeted.
For the majority of the shown strikes loitering munitions were used.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1806978984137113917?t=v_OlEIqTToVBTxZ_B_-LLg&s=19
Nothing is as refreshing as reading eu reddit users praising draft dodgers with vatniks :D So...we are fucked, here in Ukraine? I have a feeling that if nato doesn't intervene, we're fucked, but western youth doesn't want to fight, which is not surprising... Well that's how these totalitarian scum win
Are you talking about that thread in r/europe ? all the anti Ukraine people are coming out of the woodwork there so just ignore it. theyre acting like all of Ukraine doesn’t want to fight. There are still many Ukrainians in the front and they demand weapons. We in the west must still support them with aid.
Blah blah blah EUROPE WEAK blah blah UKRAINE FUCKED blah blah NATO blah blah WESTERN YOUTH WEAK blah blah REBEL SCUM SEE I'M ONE OF YOU
Injecting keywords that's what they're talking about. They're freaking obsessed with NATO it's their tell.
It's one reason why optimistic propaganda is bad even when it successfully boosts morale. It also primes people for overly extreme disappointment and demoralization when occasional verified negative news hits.
I see so many posts in this livethread every day where the contributor is trying to "keep people motivated for Ukraine" and "keep up hope." The problem is, if you are doing that at the cost of giving people a more realistic picture of the war, you are setting your audience up for failure down the line. And we have seen this happen repeatedly over the last two years, with big operations like the defense of Bakhmut, the Summer '23 counteroffensive, and the defense of Avdiivka.
One of the most frustrating things I see regularly ITT is the insistence that the next batch of Western technology will become a watershed moment in the war, despite the overwhelming objective evidence in front of us that that will not be the case. Examples include the stubborn insistence that the Leo2s and Abrams would be uniquely capable of breaking through the Russian southern front lines, and this year people are making the similarly incorrect claim that the F-16 will give Ukraine air superiority.
The evidence has always been very clear that neither of these technologies would give Ukraine a significant leg up in the war -- what they do is help Ukraine hang on, incrementally improving their defensive capabilities over a slow and long-spanning period of several years. Yet posters ITT still insist on fantastical, obviously false narratives like F-16s sweeping the Russian front lines out of a misguided attempt to inspire hope.
Hope is fine, but it must always be tempered by honest and verifiable reports, not optimistic speculation and wish fulfillment. I swear to God the number of times I have corrected false claims about a development in this war, only for the other person to reply "I know it's not real but I just like imagining that it could happen." Dude get out of here with that nonsense. This is a news thread, not an unrealistic hype thread. Speculative hype only damages Western support for Ukraine's war needs because it is so likely to be proven false later down the line.
Moral in Ukraine is crazy low wtf are you talking about. We're sitting without power for 12+ hours every day (and winter will be deadly), the government insanely jacks up prices for electricity and services. Draconic mobilization laws making every male a criminal, shitty news every single day, with no end in sight... Russia deepening ties with Iran and nk, helping with ammo and manpower, drones, bombs, escalation after escalation. People are going crazy here.
Terrible article, but people need to know this:
https://texty.org.ua/articles/112816/russian-death-camp-three-stories-ukrainian-prisoners/
>In early January 2024, I received information from another cellmate of my husband. This time, I heard that my husband was being tortured. On January 24, a Kyiv investigator called me and said there was an exchange of bodies in December 2023, and they had my husband's body.
>I couldn’t believe it; I said they had made a mistake and hung up. Later, the investigator sent me a photo of the tattoo, and I recognized him by the tattoo.
>It was the worst day of my life.
>When we arrived in Kyiv for body identification on January 25, I was shocked by what I saw. It was a very horrifying sight. What struck me the most was how emaciated the body was. The pathologist said that he weighed less than fifty kilograms.
>Sasha was tall—180 cm. Before captivity, he weighed 110 kg and was physically healthy. What was left of him were just bones and skin. His head was all bruised, his nose was crooked, and his index fingers had no nails. Whether they were ripped out or smashed, I do not know. There were signs of torture all over his body.
>His cellmates later told me how they were tortured. Every day, they were beaten. They were beaten either in the cell or taken outside. They beat them very brutally, especially my husband. Because he was tall, stately, from western Ukraine, and didn’t want to speak Russian.
Horrible, horrible. They took a page from Hitler’s Nazis. The Hague for all the ruzzian soldiers still alive at the end of the war, which is really too good for them.
[Return from Russian captivity. The pictures speak for themselves.](https://www.reddit.com/r/YUROP/comments/1drcckf/return_from_russian_captivity_the_pictures_speak/)
[Russian military blogger Kirill Fedorov published an interview with a Russian military man, who told how Ukrainians in the occupied territories are kidnapped and tortured for using Ukrainian language Not even for a political position, just for speak Ukrainian](https://x.com/i/status/1805541835294597520)
The "russian world" needs to up and die at the end of this. Keep the people, re-educate them, but the government at ALL levels must be purged. Europe is fucking sick of russia always raping and pillaging its neighbors.
Still not anywhere close to as bad as the video I saw where a Russian was hit by an FPV drone. It blew his back wide open but didn't kill him. Then the recon drone watching this zoomed in on him in ultra HD and you could see that his heart was completely exposed but still beating.
Having been duly warned of the contents, here is the video if you are so inclined: [https://v.redd.it/b2447k4uhp7d1](https://v.redd.it/b2447k4uhp7d1)
Well, the definition of clinical death is "the medical term for cessation of blood circulation and breathing, the two criteria necessary to sustain the lives of human beings and of many other organisms. It occurs when the heart stops beating in a regular rhythm, a condition called cardiac arrest." He may well have been brain dead, but clinically he was still alive.
Your broader point though is spot on though, it's a real waste that his heart couldn't be used for good.
NOEL Reports:
In the latest episode of deluded Z-channels.
"Military correspondents report that Ukraine is moving troops to the border with Belarus and is preparing for an invasion in several directions. The plan to seize the territory of Belarus by collaborators was approved by Boris Johnson."
(Full text)
“Military correspondents report that Ukraine is moving troops to the border with Belarus and is preparing for an invasion on several fronts
Ukraine is pulling troops, weapons, and military equipment to the borders of Belarus. American infantry fighting vehicles, MLRS and heavy long-range artillery are deployed in the Zhytomyr region
Yesterday, border guards discovered RDK militants in the zone of responsibility of the Zhytomyr border detachment
On a drone planted in the Gomel region, the special services found files proving that it was reconnaissance on industrial facilities and border infrastructure.
Military correspondent Pridybaylo writes: “according to available data, the plan to seize the territory of Belarus by collaborators was approved by Boris Johnson”
He notes that ready-made shock fists are available both in Ukraine and in Poland. One of the goals of the operation is the destruction of Alexander Lukashenko.”
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1807008571269218716?s=46&t=VUqNqjdwahL39seuvtxeiQ
What I really 'like' about this is the way they don't seem to get how democracies work, and how Boris Johnson hasn't been part of any decisions for some time now.
Additionally, [Lord Buckethead](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eQ0s4SBefU) probably has more popular support. At least, I would fervently hope so. Our benevolent Alien Overlord makes a lot of sense.
Although I'll have to admit he's now got strong competition from Count Binface.
> The plan to seize the territory of Belarus by collaborators was approved by Boris Johnson.
Ah, of course: foreign invasions always require approval from the MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip-- that is, the disgraced former one who hasn't been in Parliament for a year.
lmfao
When Boris Johnson was PM, his numerous scandals and indiscretions began to catch up with him and his (and his partys) popular support took a nose dive. So to counter this, BJ dialed UKs military support for Ukraine to 11, with UK becoming the first to send advanced weapons and other support.
This didn't help him at home much, but made him very popular in Ukraine and, understandebly, less so in Russia.
Pravda.com “Mine cut off from power grid in Donetsk Oblast because of Russian attacks”. (All 73 miners were safely brought to the surface)
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/29/7463210/
There's a terrifying thought. Mining is dangerous enough as is, then to add in the risk that your life support equipment or the power plant supplying electricity gets destroyed by enemy action.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1807009114561651142?t=gH7M0Iqw8omipL8LCv37Iw&s=19
:The SBU special forces destroyed eight Russian air defense systems using "RAM" strike drones, including four TOR-M2 SAMs, three Pantsyr-S1, and one BUK air defense system."
OPINION: NAFO Claims Another High-Profile Victim.
The information war with Russia has demonstrated what a powerful weapon ridicule can be against a Moscow bent on undermining Western aid to Ukraine.
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/34772
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1drsz81/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
The most recent flailing and pouting coming from the Kremlin certainly appears as if they're frustrated with their inability to make any significant gain. As an American I think it's time Halliburton and other American PMC's provide 'support' so that Delta can start affecting.
Delta?
Delta Force...you didn't see the movie? I think Chuck Norris was in it
[OSINT agency reveals details of Russian soldiers behind attacks on Kharkiv Oblast | New Voice of Ukraine | June 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/molfar-identified-55-russian-soldiers-responsible-for-daily-attacks-on-kharkiv-and-oblast-50431053.html) *Fifty-five Russian soldiers involved in the daily attacks on Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast and its administrative center were identified by the Molfar open-source intelligence (OSINT) agency and named on its website, along with their ranks, home addresses, phone numbers, family information, and passport data.* *They serve in military unit 45117, based in Voronezh, Russia, where the 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment is stationed. This unit regularly receives orders to bomb Kharkiv, including the deadly May 25 strike on the Epicenter hypermarket that killed 19 people, and repeated attacks on nearby Derhachi, Vovchansk, and other settlements in the region.* *Notable individuals on the list include Oleg Makovetsky, a native of Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast, a Major General and commander of the 6th Army of the Russian Air Force and Air Defense, who gives orders to bomb Ukrainian cities.* *Colonel Oleksei Loboda, commander of the 47th Bomber Aviation Regiment, is also identified as ordering attacks on residential areas and civilians.* *The report also mentioned Maksim Krishtop, the deputy commander of the 47th Bomber Aviation Regiment, who was captured and exchanged in 2023, was involved in the strikes.* *Molfar stressed that everyone on the list, which also names engineers and pilots, including those who carry out attacks with unguided munitions, are involved in “numerous war crimes” and must face the consequences. "They are knowingly carrying out criminal orders. But they must also realize the inevitability of punishment for these crimes," the report said.* *Russian forces are carrying out daily attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns with glide bombs, missiles, drones, artillery, and various other weapons. The frontline oblasts of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya, Kherson, Sumy, Donetsk, and Luhansk are among the hardest hit, along with the southern oblasts of Odesa and Mykolaiv.* *On June 29, at least 12 civilians were injured and five others went missing in a Russian missile strike on the administrative center of Dnipro, which damaged a multi-story residential building.* *Four people were killed and 10 others were wounded by Russian shelling in Ukraine's frontline Kherson Oblast over the past day, regional Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on Telegram on the morning of June 29.*
It would be magnificent if this maneuver in Vovchansk was successful.
I think there is a good chance they take a lot of land back, but I doubt they'll encircle that many forces. Kherson told us that Russia knows when to run.
What maneuver?
Double envelopment on the salient. Reporting from Ukraine did a video on it today/yesterday depending on where you are
Thank you for the extra context. I knew of the fighting in the area and that Russia had been bogged down but past that not much.
>Ukraine is allocating significant resources to expedite advances in the Vovchansk direction, aiming for a decisive victory through the use of encirclement.
Gotcha, thanks. :)
[Ukraine’s explosive ordnance disposal units clear 30,000 square kilometers of land in two years | EuroMaidenPress | June 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/06/29/ukraines-explosive-ordnance-disposal-units-clear-30000-square-kilometers-of-land-in-two-years/) *Ukrainian Colonel Ruslan Berehulia, the head of the Main Department of Mine Action, said that Defense Ministry specialists checked and cleared 30,000 square kilometers of Ukraine during the last two years, as per ArmyInform.* *The area is comparable to the size of countries like Belgium (30.7 thousand square km) or Moldova (33.8 thousand square km).* *Since 2022, nearly 174,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian land have been contaminated with explosives. As a result, 144,000 square kilometers are considered to be potentially dangerous due to mines and explosive remnants of war, noted Ruslan Berehulia.* *In April 2022, Ukraine set up the Corps of Deminers. As of 2024, units from the Defense Ministry and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have joined the organization to carry out tasks in de-occupied territories.* *According to him, these units already operate in Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Kharkiv regions. The Corps of Deminers will include 5,000 specialists.* *Earlier, Ukrainian Navy sailors destroyed a World War II-era naval anchor mine found in one of the shipping channels in the Black Sea, the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Facebook.*
The defenestrations of Minsk continue. A lot of Belarusian politicians have been getting killed since the war started. I have yet to see analysis on who is doing it and why. https://x.com/brennpunktua/status/1807173024174559477
I think it’s the Russians?
Nah, it's just clumsiness & bad luck. Nothing (but sidewalk) to see here
Just saw a post on Musklinks that a foreign legion person confirmed first strikes by F16 in Ukraine, sounds like the day has finally arrived. Bless those pilots, those airframes, and all who worked to make it happen. Happy hunting! Edit: https://x.com/PeurAvion/status/1806995235739664524
F-16 O'Clock, BABY! Let's fucking COOK!
Can we see the post please?
Yeah I replied to my comment below
It doesn't look like it posted, probably caught in the spam filter.
Thanks, was wondering why it wasn’t being commented on! Edited my op
Woooow let’s gooooo
I like Fourth of July fireworks.
After all the false alarms and bs that I’ve heard, I’m pretty sure that this is finally the real deal. Let’s fucking go!
Hit Putin’s Palace! Bomb his stripper pole!
Better not! That will cross a red line and prompt more unsubstantiated warnings! Oh no! What will we do!? /s
I hope it's true, the Danish ones were supposed to arrive in June and the other day they said they were on schedule..
The amount of work since 2022 to arrive at this exact moment is mind boggling. From nothing to fully fledged NATO-level aviation (ok, not quite here yet), in two years, with forests of red tape on the way and multiple countries with different interests and sensitivities involved. It's very hard to compare this war to any other in history, but is there any equivalent in the past of a massive shift/upgrade like that ?
When the CIA armed the Mujahideen against the Soviet Union.
Sort of an odd choice, but the American Revolution in some ways, from barely organized militias to a properly drilled European style army with siege artillery.
Waiting for evidence, hoping you are right!
Oryz update over last few days. Russian-Ukrainian losses then my speculation - tanks: 9-4 - IFBs: 17-5 - mobile artillery: 5-0 - missile air defence: 2-0 Frontline ratio not so great today but there were other good updates recently. As soon as you look at artillery and SAMs it's a good update though. I'm still seriously concerned about Ukraine's tank fleet, the public info combined with visible losses look really bad. Some sources think Ukraine is ok for a bit longer but I believe they need more new promises sometime soon.
Tanks aren't nearly as important as IFVs.
That's my impression too, but plenty of smart people and some soldiers I've seen interviewed talk about tank uses. I guess we'll see but the Ukrainian tank attrition has been unsustainable for the last month or perhaps more, which suggests they're using them a lot. I suspect because they have a use, and in offensives it'd be even more.
An earlier DeepStateMap update for today. According to it, Ukraine has liberated some 1.6 km2 of [Serebryanske Forest, near Bilohorivka](https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/48.9399/38.1995). There is definitely a momentum in Ukraine's favor in that section of the frontline ([Terny-Serebryanske-Bilohorivka](https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/49.0077/38.1102)). Ukraine hasn't liberated that much land since 2024 started, less than 25 km2 in total. However, of those, nearly 12 km2 were liberated this June (they made some small gains at Luhivske on June 2nd (Zaporizhzhia front), and also two gains at Serebryanske and one at Terny, these past few days)
Thanks once again for your updates and details u/glavurdan. You don't get much feedback but I find your updates and context really informative 👍
Always here to keep everyone updated :)
Kerch Bridge is closed. Come on Ukraine!
Why?
F16s doing an airshow
Because Ukraine is attacking Crimea. The bridge always gets closed when this happens. Doesn't mean that it is in danger though.
OP made it sound like the bridge was attacked or something.
It happens literally every two days now for several months.
Yeah looks like I got too excited
Ukraine should attack Crimea every day in a way that closes the Kerch until it is destroyed.
[ Ukraine Returns 10 Civilian Prisoners from Russian, Belarusian Captivity | Kyiv Post | June 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/35058) *In a deal mediated by the Vatican, Ukraine managed to secure the return of 10 civilian prisoners from Russian and Belarusian captivity, announced President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday evening.* *“Thanks to everyone who helped! Thanks to our team working on the release of prisoners. I would also like to note the Vatican's efforts to bring these people home,” said Zelensky in his Telegram announcement.* *The prisoners returned included a Crimean Tatar politician and two priests.* *This included Nariman Dzhelal, deputy chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people – the only higher authorized representative and executive body of the Crimean Tatar population – who was likely captured in Crimea in 2021.* *Bohdan Geleta and Ivan Levitskyi, two priests from the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, were captured in Berdyansk after the 2022 full-scale invasion for reportedly resisting the occupying Russian troops.* *Olena Pekh, a historian and researcher at the Horlivka Art Museum in the Donetsk region, was detained by local occupation regimes in 2018. Valery Matyushenko, a political prisoner, was detained by occupation regimes in the Donetsk region in July 2017 and illegally sentenced to 10 years in prison. The remaining civilian prisoners – Mykola Shvets, Natalia Zakharenko, Pavlo Kuprienko, Lyudmila Honcharenko and Kateryna Bryukhanova – were originally arrested in Belarus, including on charges of aiding the Ukrainian forces by providing information on Russian military movements, as reported by AFP.* *Ukraine’s Coordinating Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War said the return of the 10 civilian prisoners was part of the 53rd prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, which started on June 25 with the release of 90 Ukrainian soldiers.* *However, the role of the Vatican State, as well as the identity of Russian prisoners exchanged in return for the Ukrainian civilian prisoners, is not immediately clear.*
Akhmat and the 153rd tank regiment refused orders in Vovchansk when they found themselves on the frontlines, no longer as backup Russian TG https://x.com/albafella1/status/1807134507428163622?s=46
Akhmat are supposed to be blocking troops, not frontline troops.
When Akhmat realised it was no longer TikTok videos they quickly went hell nah
Vovchansk trees are breathing a sigh of relief. Won't be playing the bad guys in their next movie
Don’t forget the traffic lights!
when the frontline troops are wiped out and the frontlines have advanced, guess who gets promoted to frontline?
*confused math lada
> On the sidelines of the Dubrovnik Forum in Croatia, I met Special Representative of the Chinese Government on European Affairs Wu Hongbo. > I informed him about the first Peace Summit, which was held in Switzerland. We exchanged views on further efforts to restore just and lasting peace in Ukraine based on respect to the UN Charter and international law. > Ukraine and China will continue dialogue on peace and development. I emphasized the importance of strategically viewing our relationship both from a bilateral perspective and through the lens of Ukraine’s future membership in the European Union. https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1807008152245977437 > During our meeting, Armenia’s Foreign Minister @AraratMirzoyan and I discussed the security situation in Europe and the South Caucasus. > I thanked Armenia for attending the first Peace Summit in Switzerland and informed my counterpart about further work on implementing the Peace Formula on the path to a just and sustainable peace in Ukraine. > We also focused on ways to deepen our bilateral ties and international cooperation, particularly in light of Ukraine’s future EU membership. https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1807032571009679834 > I was pleased to meet with North Macedonia’s newly appointed Foreign Minister @TimcoMucunski. > We discussed ways to expand our bilateral cooperation and advance our countries’ EU accession process. We also focused on the preparation of our bilateral security agreement. > I thanked North Macedonia for attending the inaugural Peace Summit. We discussed further joint steps to restore international security and long-term peace in accordance with the UN Charter and the Peace Formula. https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1807039694129041514
I was honestly very scared of the newly elected ruling party of North Macedonia, as they were very anti-NATO and Russophilic in the past. But it seems that ever since Gruevski was ousted, they slowly moderated their stances, and recently did a 180 and now support Ukraine.
> During our today’s discussion at @DubrovnikForum in Croatia, I stressed that Ukraine's victory will be the creation of a reality in which a new Russian attack will be impossible. > As we know from our own recent history, as well as from the history of other regions, peace without justice leads to a new war. Therefore, the goal is not just to end the war, but to create a reality in which peace is just and lasting, and a new war becomes impossible. > In this context, the Peace Summit in Switzerland was key. It brought together countries from all over the world—north, south, east, and west—and demonstrated that they all share adherence to the he UN Charter, the principles of international law and the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries. > When we see that all these countries are ready to stand together and act together, it certainly gives us confidence that a just and lasting peace is possible. #DubrovnikForum2024 https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1806999435559289050
> In Dubrovnik, I met with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State @StateEUR Jim O’Brien to thank the United States for its firm support for Ukraine. > We appreciate the latest critical U.S. decisions to support Ukrainian strikes on military targets in Russia, to prioritize Ukraine in air defense ammunition supplies, and its work with third countries to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities. > Delivering additional Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine was the main focus of our conversation. We positively assessed progress made and coordinated next steps to this end. We also discussed joint efforts to provide Ukraine with additional weapons and ammunition. > Upcoming NATO summit in Washington and its expected outcomes were on the agenda, too. https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1807049415963644042
>Ukrainian forces have driven Russians out of Terny and Yampolivka in Donetsk Oblast, securing the liberated positions, the press service of the 12th Azov Special Purpose Brigade reported on Telegram on June 29. >The Russians retreated following a successful operation conducted by the 12th Azov Special Operations Brigade, the 95th Air Assault Brigade, and adjacent units. https://english.nv.ua/nation/russians-retreated-from-terny-and-yampolovka-azov-released-a-video-from-defended-positions-50431061.html
> Forbes: Russians may have lost an entire brigade in Vovchansk > A few weeks after the start of the offensive, 30,000 Russian troops are bogged down in the city of Vovchansk. OK, does that mean a brigade is 30,000 people -- or is that intentionally misleading (or heck, even just plain lazy) reporting? It's never been clear to me...
No a brigade is not 30k. They've supposedly lost a brigade already, while 30k are claimed to be surrounded. If that's true and it holds (which it might not, Russia will be trying hard to break through), it would be a lot more than a brigade. (edit: small correction)
The most modern estimate of the Russian TO&E I can find, is from the Foreign Military Studies Office from 2016, called the “Russian way of war”. According to this, Russian motor rifle brigades have an authorized strength of 3,000 to 4,500 troops. This makes them about as big as two regiments of 2,000 each, which is the building block of most divisions. A brigade is traditionally half a division size in Russia.
Pre-2022 formation sources aren't very helpful. That's a definition on paper, not reality. Both Ukraine and Russia regularly fight with formations that would be considered too understrength to be a complete unit by NATO standards. 50% and lower fulfilment is not unusual.
30k is the number of troops in kursk and belgorod. As already stated one brigade should be around 3 to 4.5k depending on if it's a full brigade and the type (infantry assault brigades have more manpower than artillery or tank brigades).
A normal Russian brigade should have about 3-4.5k. 30k is probably the whole number of russians fighting in and around Vovchansk, not that they’ve lost so many. I mean, *we expect* them to lose 30k for a small town, but still.
Yeah takes 30 days at 1,000 a day - grain of salt
I read an article on this a few days ago. I believe that Brigade was about 2,000 people and naturally a part of the greater 30K. The brigade was repeatedly sent on missions taking huge losses, then some troops were refusing to fight and now it seems they’re all gone. There had been a social media post from a member saying they were on day 3 with no food, water or support during their stretch of combat.
How wonderful! I hope more brigades meet the same fate in the future!
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thanks, my crib notes from the video, T72 - not enough left to field replacement T90 - not enough produced T55 & T62 - have inv. but ancient T80 - only viable MBT left in significant number turbine engine, more complex than diesel, more fuel in past wars T72 was the preferred tank over the T80 started with 1200, now less than 300 in a vatnik's fantasy, if all covered garages had T80's, there's 1000 left CC's upper possible estimate is 500 T80's left in storage T80's will never completely disappear as there are repair and recycle facilities for that model.
> in a vatnik's fantasy, if all covered garages had T80's, there's 1000 left And as he points out logic dictates that the tanks in the best condition were most likely in the garages so most of them are probably already gone as you would of course take the ones easiest to get back into service first. No matter how you look at it when all the examples that don't look like they're in ruins are already gone from outside it's got to mean in a year or two at most Russia is going to only have the couple hundred new tanks a month that they can produce which is not nearly enough to replace losses. And that 200 a month in new tank production is probably a generous estimate, I've seen everything from 30-40, to 140 with 200 the largest number suggested that I have come across. So as Covert Cabal said they won't ever completely run out but they will have far fewer tanks on the front lines than they can field at present. Edit: typo
How much training is needed to operate those tanks? That could be an issue as well
They are currently being used to drive infantry to the front line, shoot at the enemy, then flee. Not much training required. If they ever have to engage in some combined ops or tank vs tank warfare, training makes all the difference.
yeah I can't see the 1000 either. yes, accurate new tank production figures would frame the significance of the T80's that remain.
So, if I understood correctly, there were ~15,000 tanks of two varieties pre-war, and ~8000 lost so far from the various "Daily Combat Losses" posts. Half gone in two years. Two more years plus, until they "run out". Not particularly encouraging.
They have a very large active battle-front and other borders they need to arm, so they need large numbers of vehicles distributed along that line. The use of alternate transport and aged tanks mean it is already limiting their capabilities and that should continue to get worse given how many they are losing in offensive actions.
Does the 15k include tanks that cannot be resurrected?
The count is from satellite photos, so condition is not easy to determine, in addition to their being large sheds on site. It is quite likely some percentage have already been looted for parts.
That’s very encouraging! If Russia runs out, even though it’s four years of war, we’re talking about a massive stockpile that can never be reactivated again. Russia as a threat to all of Europe is neutralized and Ukraine’s defensive position post-war is very strong.
You do realize they can produce more in turn with the war..: right? The Russians produced 87,500 tanks during WW2. The US produced similar figures
WW2 tanks didn't require electronics
I'am sure T34 will be really helpful on the frontlines.
The Soviet Union produced a shitload of tanks. That’s not super helpful for the Russians. The Kharkiv tank works no longer support them.
Russia isnt a small country and lacking industrial output
Lol, Russia lacks a lot of industrial output and has been highly dependent on the west for quality products.
They lack the industrial facilities to pump out tanks. They can't create factories and train workers out of thin air. They have a severe shortage of weapons grade steel. You're talking something that under ideal circumstances takes almost a decade to get up and running to any reasonable scale.
Russia doesn’t lack factories or workers. The arms industry is 20% of the manufacturing industry https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_industry_of_Russia
The Russian Arms industry was in significant decline resulting in the Putin era consolidation of companies and reduction in manufacturing facilities. You are missing decades of post-Soviet industrial decline and corruption. Russian Federation built equipment is junk while their more reliable Soviet era equipment stockpile is drained at a rate faster than the Russian Federation has ever built them.
They absolutely lack tank factories. IIRC they only have one operational factory making T90's and one factory doing refurbishments on T72's. All other refurbishments are being done hodgepodge. It's just not possible for them to produce enough to mitigate losses.
Then why don't we see masses of newly built tanks arriving on the frontline? Why do we see only handful of those come of out the factories every month, while seeing all the old stockpile disappearing so quickly?
Why use your new stuff on the frontline when the old equipment can handle the gap? Why rush production when you need to shift lines over and you’re attempting to mitigate the full shift to a work economy? Same reason Europe is only recently shifting their production facilities towards arms and equipment Hell, there’s even reports the T64’s thicker armor is mitigating the impact of drones and giving it higher serviceability than the T72
The Russian Federation is not the industrial powerhouse the Soviet Union was. Tanks now take a lot more to make than WWII era tanks. Russia does not have the ability to even get close to those numbers now.
You don’t have to make current tanks, you can just mass create older designs that are cheaper and quicker to pump out The idea that Russia is going to run out of tanks is silly
They'll never run out but they'll run low. Which means using them more and more sparingly as time goes on. This will severely weaken their offensive capabilities as commanders will be more adverse to losing them. Remotely keeping up with daily losses in their current state is an absolute impossibility.
I disagree with running low entirely. It’s also a two pronged issue, they can out produce Ukraine’s production and still maintain higher amounts on the battlefield
They already seem to be running low. They are fielding fewer and older tanks each month.
Ukraine is losing significantly less tanks every day than Russia, they don't have the same attritional rate even when production is taken into account. Running low is simple math. They're losing as many tanks as they can produce in a month every 2-3 days. Their Soviet stock piles are rapidly depleting and they're starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel. Russia simply doesn't have the tank factories to change that equation.
Ukraine has lost significantly less *because they’re on the defensive*. Losses matched Russian rates during the counteroffensive. They also have significantly less in the first place to use. They did not have built up stockpiles even close to Russia, hence the need for foreign armor despite their losses being of T64 and T72 being in the hundreds You can’t argue a Ukrainian victory without accounting for attrition rates being on an offensive basis, not defensive
Even if they could reactivate 15,000, and they can't, many of those are scrap already, they couldn't reactivate 10,000 in 4 years. They don't have 2 more years. They don't have the engines to place into the tanks in storage. Many parts, they don't have optics for all of them, they're relying on North Korea, Iran, Syria, and Belarus.
I'm guessing they run low on something important by the end of this year. Early signs like golf carts are already here.
Well WW2 tanks easier to destroy if that helps
A modern FPV drone carries enough ordinance to punch through the armor of any Cold War Era piece of shit the Russians can trundle out to the front lines. I actually think they are doing Ukraine a favor by putting an experienced tank crew in such a vulnerable target, inevitably destroyed by one guy sitting at a desk miles away from the frontline.
Much better than Russia having manufacturing capability equal to their current losses, and still better than an estimate that they run out in four years. Also I think that as Ukraine receives more and more weaponry from the west, their capabilities grow stronger. So assuming linear loss rates on the Russian side might not be accurate.
This is why elections this year are so crucial. putin is counting on Trumpovich and other right wingers to cut off aid from Ukraine.
I guess this is the most favourable projection for Russia? So most likely it's worse than that for them.
keep in mind that treating numbers of "tanks in storage" for "can be used in battle" is kind of misleading. They were not normally handled - this is 100% for sure - and 8000 can be very well the best of them. I mean easiest to repair are naturally repairing first - using parts from the rest of the stock
The turtle tanks that have been showing up appears to be used for troop transport and to soak up drones. They only sometimes have functioning turrets as they dip into less functional stocks for those. I think ultimately if it’s in a state where it can propel forward, it will end up on the battlefield and fill one function or another.
That\`s fair, but it is already far-far away of the functions that come in mind speaking of tanks :)
Damn, you're good! I checked like an hour ago and he hadn't posted anything yet. I've been anxiously awaiting the next tank count. Edit - Best estimate is that storage runs out around early 2026.
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I think you're right. My gut feeling is that stuff in the garages was in the best condition and was sent first.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 06.29.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 541,560 (+1,070) people, tanks ‒ 8073 (+7) units, armored combat vehicles ‒ 15,505 (+25) units, of artillery systems — 14,480 (+57) units, MLRS – 1109 (+0) units, air defense equipment ‒ 871 (+0) units, aircraft – 360 (+0) units, helicopters – 326 (+0) units, UAVs of operational-tactical level - 11538 (+29), cruise missiles ‒ 2331 (+2), ships/boats ‒ 28 (+0) units, submarines - 1 (+0) units, automotive equipment and tank trucks - 19,568 (+54) units, special equipment ‒ 2436 (+5) The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/29/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1070-okupantiv-57-artilerijskih-sistem-25-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/29/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1070-okupantiv-57-artilerijskih-sistem-25-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/)
You have a type in artillery units, or Russian artillery teams have gotten mega fucked yesterday
Thanks, fixed,
🇺🇦 Destruction of the 🇷🇺 Russian Grad with its crew. https://x.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1807044541502882042?t=_NjBtWgZ4Q_kXGH5wjiSeQ&s=19
Holy shit, that’s a big boom!
The crew could be ok, maybe the explosion threw them clear like in a 90s action movie.
Weird it looks like it's driving with the launcher deployed. Maybe they bugged out due to the drone.
They thought they could tube trap drone n fire it back at UA
r/ShockwavePorn
What a great way of hiding for fpv drone… NSFL https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1806978880625881548?t=BdAEt2AcH_939eJstw7gOg&s=19
I don't think infantry is a good job anymore.
Another one abandoned by his comrades.
Compilation of previously unpublished SBU strikes on Russian air defence systems. 4xTOR, 3xPantsir-S1 and 1xBUK air defence system equipment were targeted. For the majority of the shown strikes loitering munitions were used. https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1806978984137113917?t=v_OlEIqTToVBTxZ_B_-LLg&s=19
Nothing is as refreshing as reading eu reddit users praising draft dodgers with vatniks :D So...we are fucked, here in Ukraine? I have a feeling that if nato doesn't intervene, we're fucked, but western youth doesn't want to fight, which is not surprising... Well that's how these totalitarian scum win
You are psychologically manipulative. I know what it looks like because of my ex.
Are you talking about that thread in r/europe ? all the anti Ukraine people are coming out of the woodwork there so just ignore it. theyre acting like all of Ukraine doesn’t want to fight. There are still many Ukrainians in the front and they demand weapons. We in the west must still support them with aid.
I'm not sure I understand what your talking about?
Blah blah blah EUROPE WEAK blah blah UKRAINE FUCKED blah blah NATO blah blah WESTERN YOUTH WEAK blah blah REBEL SCUM SEE I'M ONE OF YOU Injecting keywords that's what they're talking about. They're freaking obsessed with NATO it's their tell.
Crazy how one debate and one bad election almost instantly obliterates optimistic propaganda.
Biden is up in the polls post debate, so...
It's one reason why optimistic propaganda is bad even when it successfully boosts morale. It also primes people for overly extreme disappointment and demoralization when occasional verified negative news hits. I see so many posts in this livethread every day where the contributor is trying to "keep people motivated for Ukraine" and "keep up hope." The problem is, if you are doing that at the cost of giving people a more realistic picture of the war, you are setting your audience up for failure down the line. And we have seen this happen repeatedly over the last two years, with big operations like the defense of Bakhmut, the Summer '23 counteroffensive, and the defense of Avdiivka. One of the most frustrating things I see regularly ITT is the insistence that the next batch of Western technology will become a watershed moment in the war, despite the overwhelming objective evidence in front of us that that will not be the case. Examples include the stubborn insistence that the Leo2s and Abrams would be uniquely capable of breaking through the Russian southern front lines, and this year people are making the similarly incorrect claim that the F-16 will give Ukraine air superiority. The evidence has always been very clear that neither of these technologies would give Ukraine a significant leg up in the war -- what they do is help Ukraine hang on, incrementally improving their defensive capabilities over a slow and long-spanning period of several years. Yet posters ITT still insist on fantastical, obviously false narratives like F-16s sweeping the Russian front lines out of a misguided attempt to inspire hope. Hope is fine, but it must always be tempered by honest and verifiable reports, not optimistic speculation and wish fulfillment. I swear to God the number of times I have corrected false claims about a development in this war, only for the other person to reply "I know it's not real but I just like imagining that it could happen." Dude get out of here with that nonsense. This is a news thread, not an unrealistic hype thread. Speculative hype only damages Western support for Ukraine's war needs because it is so likely to be proven false later down the line.
. Moral atm in Ukraine is way higher than last year
How do you know this?
Moral in Ukraine is crazy low wtf are you talking about. We're sitting without power for 12+ hours every day (and winter will be deadly), the government insanely jacks up prices for electricity and services. Draconic mobilization laws making every male a criminal, shitty news every single day, with no end in sight... Russia deepening ties with Iran and nk, helping with ammo and manpower, drones, bombs, escalation after escalation. People are going crazy here.
Terrible article, but people need to know this: https://texty.org.ua/articles/112816/russian-death-camp-three-stories-ukrainian-prisoners/ >In early January 2024, I received information from another cellmate of my husband. This time, I heard that my husband was being tortured. On January 24, a Kyiv investigator called me and said there was an exchange of bodies in December 2023, and they had my husband's body. >I couldn’t believe it; I said they had made a mistake and hung up. Later, the investigator sent me a photo of the tattoo, and I recognized him by the tattoo. >It was the worst day of my life. >When we arrived in Kyiv for body identification on January 25, I was shocked by what I saw. It was a very horrifying sight. What struck me the most was how emaciated the body was. The pathologist said that he weighed less than fifty kilograms. >Sasha was tall—180 cm. Before captivity, he weighed 110 kg and was physically healthy. What was left of him were just bones and skin. His head was all bruised, his nose was crooked, and his index fingers had no nails. Whether they were ripped out or smashed, I do not know. There were signs of torture all over his body. >His cellmates later told me how they were tortured. Every day, they were beaten. They were beaten either in the cell or taken outside. They beat them very brutally, especially my husband. Because he was tall, stately, from western Ukraine, and didn’t want to speak Russian.
Horrible, horrible. They took a page from Hitler’s Nazis. The Hague for all the ruzzian soldiers still alive at the end of the war, which is really too good for them.
This is the world Putin and his rightwing friends want. Remember that when you vote.
[Return from Russian captivity. The pictures speak for themselves.](https://www.reddit.com/r/YUROP/comments/1drcckf/return_from_russian_captivity_the_pictures_speak/) [Russian military blogger Kirill Fedorov published an interview with a Russian military man, who told how Ukrainians in the occupied territories are kidnapped and tortured for using Ukrainian language Not even for a political position, just for speak Ukrainian](https://x.com/i/status/1805541835294597520)
The "russian world" needs to up and die at the end of this. Keep the people, re-educate them, but the government at ALL levels must be purged. Europe is fucking sick of russia always raping and pillaging its neighbors.
Not just the Russian world, but the world of all those who advocate for pushing Ukraine to negotiate and surrender to this.
They need to be culture cracked like Germany was. The culture is a disease in the world. No value, just destruction.
Russians are monsters
Day DCCCLVI, Part I. Thread MIII.
[удалено]
In retrospect I should probably not have watched that right before eating.
Should have stayed home.
Kinda NSFL.
Still not anywhere close to as bad as the video I saw where a Russian was hit by an FPV drone. It blew his back wide open but didn't kill him. Then the recon drone watching this zoomed in on him in ultra HD and you could see that his heart was completely exposed but still beating. Having been duly warned of the contents, here is the video if you are so inclined: [https://v.redd.it/b2447k4uhp7d1](https://v.redd.it/b2447k4uhp7d1)
He died instantly but what a waste of functioning heart. Could of gone to someone needing a heart transplant.
Well, the definition of clinical death is "the medical term for cessation of blood circulation and breathing, the two criteria necessary to sustain the lives of human beings and of many other organisms. It occurs when the heart stops beating in a regular rhythm, a condition called cardiac arrest." He may well have been brain dead, but clinically he was still alive. Your broader point though is spot on though, it's a real waste that his heart couldn't be used for good.
Hearts do that. Automaticity, see?
NOEL Reports: In the latest episode of deluded Z-channels. "Military correspondents report that Ukraine is moving troops to the border with Belarus and is preparing for an invasion in several directions. The plan to seize the territory of Belarus by collaborators was approved by Boris Johnson." (Full text) “Military correspondents report that Ukraine is moving troops to the border with Belarus and is preparing for an invasion on several fronts Ukraine is pulling troops, weapons, and military equipment to the borders of Belarus. American infantry fighting vehicles, MLRS and heavy long-range artillery are deployed in the Zhytomyr region Yesterday, border guards discovered RDK militants in the zone of responsibility of the Zhytomyr border detachment On a drone planted in the Gomel region, the special services found files proving that it was reconnaissance on industrial facilities and border infrastructure. Military correspondent Pridybaylo writes: “according to available data, the plan to seize the territory of Belarus by collaborators was approved by Boris Johnson” He notes that ready-made shock fists are available both in Ukraine and in Poland. One of the goals of the operation is the destruction of Alexander Lukashenko.” https://x.com/noelreports/status/1807008571269218716?s=46&t=VUqNqjdwahL39seuvtxeiQ
What I really 'like' about this is the way they don't seem to get how democracies work, and how Boris Johnson hasn't been part of any decisions for some time now.
Bless their cold hearts! They’ve never lived in a democracy.
Exactly. Boris Johnson has the same authority to approve one foreign country's invasion of another as Lord Buckethead.
Additionally, [Lord Buckethead](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eQ0s4SBefU) probably has more popular support. At least, I would fervently hope so. Our benevolent Alien Overlord makes a lot of sense. Although I'll have to admit he's now got strong competition from Count Binface.
> The plan to seize the territory of Belarus by collaborators was approved by Boris Johnson. Ah, of course: foreign invasions always require approval from the MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip-- that is, the disgraced former one who hasn't been in Parliament for a year. lmfao
Was Boris particularly infamous in Russia for any particular reason?
When Boris Johnson was PM, his numerous scandals and indiscretions began to catch up with him and his (and his partys) popular support took a nose dive. So to counter this, BJ dialed UKs military support for Ukraine to 11, with UK becoming the first to send advanced weapons and other support. This didn't help him at home much, but made him very popular in Ukraine and, understandebly, less so in Russia.
They just don’t know how stupid they are, do they?!
It's astonishing. 'This just in: Margaret Thatcher threatens to nuke Moscow from beyond the grave!'
Now that one is reasonable.
Nah, I'm pretty sure she's not getting up. We had the 21 gun salute shoot the coffin just to be sure.
A perfectly sensible precaution under the circumstances.
Was her phylactery ever found? I'm not going to feel relaxed until it's found and destroyed properly.
🤣🤣 Along with the QUEEN!!!
Isn't Boris Johnson a Barista by now?
Oh no, he’s a “public speaker” - ie he goes around making speeches for huge fees so his paymasters can reward him for looking after their interests
I had thought he was going to be the Ambassador to Ukraine from UK; apparently that never happened!
Pravda.com “Mine cut off from power grid in Donetsk Oblast because of Russian attacks”. (All 73 miners were safely brought to the surface) https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/29/7463210/
There's a terrifying thought. Mining is dangerous enough as is, then to add in the risk that your life support equipment or the power plant supplying electricity gets destroyed by enemy action.
Another War Crime to the long list.
https://x.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1807014687747313895?t=m-JXjeDKysurcupnUwVFsQ&s=19 "Zaporizhzhia is under heavy Russian missile strike NOW!"
I haven’t seen any news on this yet.
https://x.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1807092503276880247?t=Gvjq8xfAqMc0oMtd-E0Agg&s=19 "Cancellation"
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1807009114561651142?t=gH7M0Iqw8omipL8LCv37Iw&s=19 :The SBU special forces destroyed eight Russian air defense systems using "RAM" strike drones, including four TOR-M2 SAMs, three Pantsyr-S1, and one BUK air defense system."
OPINION: NAFO Claims Another High-Profile Victim. The information war with Russia has demonstrated what a powerful weapon ridicule can be against a Moscow bent on undermining Western aid to Ukraine. https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/34772