Isn't a recession then needed and an ultimate good thing? Do we currently have people living in recession like conditions but due to the external money being injected into the economy via immigration we will just be in a stagcession for the forseeable future?
>Isn't a recession then needed and an ultimate good thing
Tell that to NZ, UK and Canada who are experiencing higher unemployment, and not exactly better than Australia.
We have a million+ Indians flooding Canada per year. More when you include illegals. Our population for the longest time was 36 million. Now it's shot up to 40+ mil (larger in actual numbers). Median household income is 55k (both men and women working put together), 35k takeaway after taxes. While rent for a 1 bedroom is 2k. Shit is ugly in Canada and our PM continues to play the same games. Don't compare yourself to a dead rotting corpse like Canada. It doesn't do any good.
https://www.google.com/search?q=canada+population+growth
I get a graph that shows the rate increased (relative to the decades before) in 2016, maybe a 20-40% higher. Then there was a COVID dip, and a rebound, which probably makes the current rate lower over the last few years than before the pandemic. Population then was about 36 million in 2016.
Why can't people like you understand having 1 million people enter over 3 years is different to having 1 million people enter over one year. Also, you've basically missed 3 years of construction due to covid.
No. Contractionary gaps, unemployment and disinflation/deflation are correlated but not mutually exclusive to one another. You can have a technical recession (real GDP down consecutive quarters) with low employment, high inflation, and high asset values.
In all reasonable likelihood, a recession is needed for us. Just when we thought inflation was being curtailed, the decline has started to slow, and now inflation levels are showing resilience.
Per capita economic welfare is being crushed in Australia, almost entirely due to unsustainable levels of mass immigration, all in the pursuit of total GDP growth to some/any extent (which is obviously of no help to the existing citizens).
The aforementioned conditions remaining constant, a recession might be necessary.
Our economy is just a Ponzi scheme, propped up by immigration. It's not sustainable, and the longer that government(s) delay the tough decisions wrt to housing supply and taxation reform, the bigger the inevitable crunch.
I sell a fair bit of stuff as a side hustle. Did quite well last 2 years and products moved very quickly, last 3 months its slowed right down. The business I work for was expecting the downturn 6 months ago. Bit of a shock the can keeps getting kicked down the road, eventually it's going down a drain.
I’m on $68k at 40 but I’m not embarrassed by it. I was a 6 figure income earner but my old career was killing me so I changed careers. Studying now so in the next couple years I have a relevant degree and will likely be on 6 figures again. Sometimes you have to step back. Your health and your mental state is worth far more than money.
Society is quickly moving to a rich and poor divide, the middle-class lifestyle is being eroded faster than ever. Housing prices are at the centre of this.
Yes - other countries have true income inequality. Here we are largely within a pretty narrow band for the majority of incomes compared to the rest of the world.
Our issues are massive distortions due to house prices and housing costs in general. Even the best earners have trouble buying a median priced place now “from scratch”.
Bank will own most of it. And what does it really mean if you own a million dollar house in your 40s? You sell it and you still have to live somewhere.
Not an option for us at the moment but possibly in the future. Our house is 15 years old, nothing fancy in an outer suburb/semi regional area. Our youngest has disabilities and we need to access supports and therapies. Unfortunately many areas, particularly regional don’t have the services and resources many families need. Which is a whole other issue.
I was talking about his example of a million dollar house rather than your situation. But people have it good here, I know of a few people who grew up in HK in a family of 6 living in a two bedroom apartment with bunk beds and sofa beds. Thing is you can always downsize if you're desperate. So if you live in a house at the moment, you could have a fair bit of money left over if you buy a big apartment to move into.
Which crazily doesn’t really have the same meaning it used to have. Hell when you account for property value being a “millionaire” is down right bottom of middle class in some cities.
With the median house price in Sydney being 1.6M having a house, a car, a decent super fund and some savings you’d be pretty close to being a “multimillionaire” without even having an investment property.
Hell 10 years ago earning 120K a year household felt phenomenal, now it’s almost as if you need 160-200 households to be middle class.
*I know the median wage is still like 60-70K so middle class is probably closer to 120-140 joint. But it certainly doesn’t feel like it.
We were in a per capita recession in 2019 before Covid.
Source:
https://amp.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-falls-into-per-capita-recession-as-growth-tumbles-20190306-p5122r.html
We are in the position we are now due more than just printing too much money. Mass migration, bad trade deals and too much foreign ownership of our productive land and assets are bigger causes of our problems than just printing too much money
Sure, they contribute, but 90% of it is due to printing too much money, which pretty much every government in the world did, and pretty much every country has the same problems now.
> but 90% of it is due to printing too much money
Maybe but cutting mass migration would have a massive impact. Cutting mass migration would cause house prices to slowly fall as rents fall and investors have to sell unproductive rentals. This would have a deflationary impact on the economy without creating mass unemployment as locals either end up doing the jobs immigrants were doing (but for better pay) and uncompetitive businesses fold.
No one is suggesting that reducing migration won't relieve some pressure on housing. I mean that is very basic. But Australians have also changed the way we live significantly, the growth in one or two person houses is many times higher than it was even just 5 years ago this also adds significant pressure to housing stock, as people expect to live alone which wasn't true in the past. Then you have boomers who are empty nesters living in 4 and 5 bedroom houses (my parents included). Many of these people refuse to downsize because of the transactional costs, then there are empty houses being stored by investors because of the generous tax breaks we give. Etc etc etc. Cutting migration alone will help but not solve the problem, a complex problem. Even countries with net outflow migration have seen steep increases in asset prices due to money printing. If economics is so easy, why not become an economist and fix everything?
Nope. But we're heading towards 5-6 consecutive periods of negative GDP growth per capita
I don't believe that's ever happened in Australia, nor in most countries.
No, they are not. The "Japanification" of China's economy has been a narrative for over a decade and is probably even less true now than it was before. Their Q1 growth was 5.3%, higher than most forecasts and was driven by a pivot to advanced manufacturing from property. Yes, it's only one quarter but I doubt this will not become a long-term trend. This was achieved precisely because they were able to deflate their property "bubble" before it became too large to deal with. The pivot to advanced manufacturing only was possible because of the property deflation. Ridiculous property prices distorts economic incentives (this is what happened to Hong Kong). There are lessons in this but I doubt Australian politicians will learn from it.
China will grow at 4-5% at least for the next 10 years. They are leading the world when it comes to EV, solar and other emerging tech. China bashing has been happening for the last 25 years. USA and other western countries just can't see how China can grow so much. But you can't blame them, they have a limited knowledge about most Non western countries. Just look at the anti Indian comments here in Reddit. I have been to China several times in the last 5 years. It is technologically so far ahead of Australia, every time I go I feel like I have come from a small village for the first 2-3 days. And I have lived in Melbourne for the last 20 years.
Lol I'm Australian. We are always complaining but would rather bury our heads in the sands than admit a communist country has figured out markets better than we have. Easier to blame immigrants in the end.
Yeah I also heard they are pulling out of a lot of their Australian investments in retail also. Still wild to me that we allow so much of our land to be bought internationally
Everything you wrote was straight from party line propaganda and has no basis in real world observation. That includes GDP.
And not sure what you mean by "helps me sleep better at night". China will be bringing down the world economy with its decline. This terrifies me and I wish it wasn't the case but here we are. I would sleep much better if China had a healthy, sustainable economy.
I mean the idea that you think China's property bubble is deflated with the worse behind it just shows you are not engaging with reality when it comes to where China is and where it's going.
You are presenting yourself as well read on Chinese economics yet you aren't aware that Chinese GDP has been considered unreliable in its accuracy for decades now?
the reason why we dont have a recession and never will, is they have figured out they can pass it on to the people. meaning instead of job losses, house prices going down, you just become poorer slowly but surely.
In December 2023 sales were -2.1 percent as of the latest retail spending update (Feburary) it has only rissen 0.3 percent in Feburary.
The 1 percent figure you're quoting was back in Janurary.
Unemployment rose to 4.1 percent
In reality yes, but as you ve seen, you can pretend you are not in recession if you focus on rly specific numbers and have really specific definition.
The average person notices the recession while the mainstream media and the ""experts"" here keep trying to gaslight people that all is going great xxd
Fun fact. It doesn't.
It's got plenty of definitions and some countries don't even use a definition, they use a panel of economists to decide before they call one.
I'm not about to go through them all and check 😁
Interestingly though we are all discussing one of the newest in the per capita recession. One that until recently no one thought could really exist without total GDP shrinking yet here it is.
Fair - though my comment was supposed to be a little snarky in that I believe most measures wouldn't show us to be in a recession. We just have a rough cost-of-living and rental crisis that makes it feel worse.
I missed that then. I was just offering up a fact without an opinion. Someone else accused me of some sort of agenda like I was part of a conspiracy by big God knows what to make the public think we are actually in a recession.
Clearly things got too heated.
Is it official? Did we have a referendum to include it in the constitution? What makes it Australia's?
The narrative that there is no definition of recession? Are you now trying to argue that the definition of the word definition isn't what we thought it was?
Grow up. There's no narrative except yours which I am guessing is "no recession here". I am sure when that doesn't suit you will move onto one of the other ways of measuring it or talking about something else.
No we're not, but only because of immigration growing our GDP every quarter, per capita though our economy is pretty bad, the gap in economical classes has suddenly become very obvious in the last few years than it ever has in the past (anecdotally atleast).
No. We're not. As other posters have said, a recession has a specific, technical, objective definition. It's not "the vibe".
If we were, you would have seen lots of announcements and the coalition using it to blame the federal government for bad economic management.
Same thing of avoiding a "technical recession"
The reality is that the pie is getting bigger but everybody gets less.
Call it what it is, using Queensland Medical Association standards: We're in a Recession (per capita).
I mean, we can all make up statistics to try and argue our point... Recession per capita isn't something you'll find being used by any economic authority (the RBA or the Treasury, not your favourite media commentator or Facebook).
Along those lines... Why would you look to the Queensland **Medical** Association for economic metrics?
For example, let's assume our female proportion had grown proportionally higher than our male population in recent quarters. We're probably in a "GDP per female" recession but not in a "GDP per male". Just because I can define a statistic doesn't make it useful.
The QMA standards for who can use the title Doctor became the national stamdards a few years ago. Basically, any allied medical professional can now call themselves Doctor, so long as they include their specialty in brackets afterwards.
For example, a chiropractor can insist on being called Doctor (Chiropractor). Your osteo... Doctor (Osteo).
Are they really Doctors? Can they write a prescription? Can they give you the good drugs? Can they order a scan? Does Medicare give a shit about them?
So, we're in a recession (per capita) as opposed to a recession (technical) or recession (GDP).
It's a very frivolous engineered statistic when the reality is that everybody is getting poorer bit because you can show that there's more money in the system then there's nothing wrong.
It makes the word meaningless when you can game it, just like a Dr title is now.
Correct answer based on the accepted and historically used definition of what a recession is in Australia - that being 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth = NO we are not.
Lately everyone jumps on the "per capita recession" because it helps the narrative that we are doing badly, but that is a slightly different metric and a different way looking at it, specifically it's repeated recently because it's a way to fit a narrative rather than the historically accepted definition. Part of the problem and why people want to go for per capita recession is this binary narrative of "in recession" or "not in recession" we probably should be looking at it like the sliding scale it is rather than yes or no. The GDP last reported qtr was not negative... but it was weak, very weak actually.
The job market is still strong though considering, unemployment from the last report is still quite low, so either things are changing very fast and you are seeing the leading edge of that change.. OR more likely you are seeing something specific to your industry or your location rather than an indicator of a recession.
You can’t be sure we’re not. Recession is diagnosed retrospectively. If the current quarter turns out to be negative growth and the next quarter is - would that not be that we are currently in recession? You would have been at the beginning of the 6 month period of contraction but doesn’t make this month not part of the recession.
Actually I can be sure, because it isn't called a recession until 2 consecutive quarters, even if right now we are in a negative quarter that hasn't been reported yet, it would only be the 1st one of the 2 consecutive required. It's called a recession AFTER its reported 2 consecutive, not during.
The concept I believe is that a recession is a PROLONGED period - IE a minimum of 6 months. Even if this quarter and next quarter are negative meeting that requirement, its not a recession this quarter.. it's kinda pedantic I guess but it's an official term so needs to be I suppose, Sure I'll agree we could be at the start of a recession but we can't call it now, and really why get hung up on it?
Like I said before, we probably need to stop getting hung up on the binary definition, what's clear is the GDP was very weak last quarter and likely will be again, who cares if its a "recession" or not really? people are hurting, the COL is real, we have a rental crisis and a house price crisis, things are not great for many even if we are not in a recession.
No as I said you can’t be sure because you can be in something when it’s retrospectively labelled. World War 1 was World War 1 at the time those brave soldiers were fighting for freedoms even though it wasn’t called that during the actual war.
geeze, it's pretty obvious when you are in a war.. like shooting at someone or being shot at is pretty easy to know.
As has been proven from the last 2 or 3 quarters when many on this sub wanted it to be a recession 6 months ago.. it hasn't yet happened, so it's clearly not very easy to be sure about if we are in a recession or not. Being in a war is much, much. much more obvious.
Chill out man, you seem to be getting upset just because someone is presenting a different viewpoint to you.
Also, by your argument, say if we find out this quarter and next quarter are negative growth, followed by a quarter of positive growth, when were we in recession (which is literally defined as two quarters of negative growth by economists) - it’s the start of this quarter. So I can with 100% certainty you cannot be sure and I can also see you don’t know what you’re talking about.
lol dude relax. Sure by your argument we could be right at the start of a recession - but we cant say that until its been reported. From my perspective it hasn't been reported and even if we are negative this quarter well next quarter could be positive again.
It's like you're trying to prove something "could" happen.
The question was are we in a recession and you answered no which was incorrect, as you cannot know that. Peddling misinformation is not useful. My ‘argument’ is not an argument it’s a statement of fact. Recessions are diagnosed retrospectively and therefore we can be in one. Yes we can talk about leading indicators but to say we categorically aren’t in recession when we very well could be is a falsehood and if I was being unkind I could very well call you a liar. I’m not calling you that I’m making it clear that you’ve misunderstood and we can in fact right now as we speak because in recession, and some leading indicators might suggest we are and others might but we will not know until after the fact. That’s the truth and a statement of fact. ‘No we are not in recession’ is NOT correct to say, but more nuance ‘we very well could be, but we can’t say with certainty until later, and here’s some indicators that we are’ is how one could put it if they want to speak truthfully.
Geeze ok mate, I accept I should have said "officially NO we are not, but maybe in 6 months we could look back say it was the start of it"
It's kind of a silly point to make frankly, I still stand by right now we are not officially in a recession, and I can be certain of that statement because it has not been called. But yes I agree we could look back and say now was the start of it.
and I also stand by my point.. who cares? people are doing it tough, does it really matter if we are officially in one or not.. it's a binary thing that does not reflect the sliding scale of pain the economy is in.. but obviously to you it does so fair enough.
Hope whatever is your pain point.. things get better for you, and I'm not saying that tongue in cheek, I genuinely hope whatever is going on things get better for you.
Ah yes, the ever political RBA likes the GDP measure for its fudgability. Importantly, like underemployment, we keep strict definitions for longitudinal studies, and revise and introduce new studies to better study our economy (e.g. unemployed vs underemployment).
Technically unemployment is still below 4% where historically it should be around 5%-6% so it's not yet a recession but it's heading there if migration is reduced. The layoffs is just the economy reverting to the mean. Expect the unemployment rate to tick up.
wow. thanks for the lesson. it's like saying starvation is the act of not getting enough sustenance it's not about not eating food. like duh. but you know not eating will lead to starvation right? unemployment leads to less income and less spending which will cause GDP to go down.
We are in a per capita recession as others said so technically we are at the very beginning of the downturn. Other economies have shown that you can't fight inflation without causing a recession so it is coming. Specific industries are shrinking or seeing their growth stagnate but it is widespread in the economy yet and an average person isn't seeing yet just yet.
RBA has only one tool to fight it and will keep pushing for higher interest rates. They can't say that to the public obviously so are keeping their statements vague - learnt from the Lowe's mistake. The problem is the government that keeps pouring more cash into the economy (purely political reasons that help them but don't help the nation)
Give it time. We are in for a downturn. It might not be a rapid fall into depression but rather a gradually worsening economic environment
It feels like it. Although, the immigration driven consumption is difficult to get a feel for because the market activity is concentrated in particular sectors.
Our previous metrics are not comparable when market factors are so different.
Ie. Population growth was babies, now it is adults who are peak consumers. They also are more prone to suppressing wage growth and drive rental prices. Distorts a lot.
Australians skipped the recession and are now in a period where holding on means everything to everyone here. Mental health decline, broken families, loneliness and increasing wealth are what you can expect on the road ahead. A very bleak and dire place to be wealthy. It's not like you will have a choice here.
Plenty of 'feels like it' and 'vibe' comments here. Confirmation bias. I look around and see every pub and restaurant heaving, shopping centres packed, overseas travel booming, six month wait lists for new cars, private schools increasing fees and still have wait lists, hotels full.. and on and on..
Unemployment still sitting fine though. It's a lagging metric but it's picking those companies doesn't refute that unemployment with a 4 in front of it is a very healthy economy.
Manipulating the workforce ... higher unemployment the more desperate people want jobs the easier the employer can negotiate work conditions. The whole event is to drag people working from home back into the office. Plenty or mining jobs ... though.
Anecdote but my wife is negotiating her salary rise right now. We decided to have a look the last few weeks for job ads in her area and they’re probably about 20-30% the number there were a year or so ago. If there were layoffs I can see a fair number in the market… but other fields are on the rise (particularly anything in high demand from boomers who have substantial established savings). Ultimately it seems negotiating position is no where near what it was 2 years ago. Recession statistics look in the rear view mirror so not sure in own now but projecting I’d say there could easily be one this year.
Yes
In laymen's terms
If u have 100 gdp and 100 people that means 1 per person cool
If u have 110 gdp (increased by mass immigration) but u are 120 people = .917 per person.
That's what it means u feel broke and have no money although the pie has increased slightly it's not enough to offset the amount of people coming in.
Hence recession per person capita what ever.
So conclusion yes yes we are
If u remove mass immigration u will see gpd fall eg
80 gdp but 100 people... .8 per person savage....
But the issue is we as a society are buckling under the lack of infrastructure and actual jobs that train and grow the economy eg manufacturing etc
Not uber uber eats drivers and 7 11 petrol station attendants.....
With inflation running at 3.4% we are still above the productive capacity of the economy, so will need to slow even further. The interesting thing about the latest 1% rise this quarter was that 0.6% of the 1% was driven by education fees. All those expensive private schools have increased their fees tremendously. Looks like the CoL is going to stick it to the rich families. Betcha they will start whinging soon.
Employment ok, inflation going down, gdp good.
No
Recession means a few major indicators go negative more than one time in a row…
There is not many lay offs and mainly talking about US tech companies lay offs.
Per capita definitely. Who cares if we aren't in a technical recession? The reason why we care whether we are in recession is because the impacts of recession; ie. companies laying off workers, unemployment going up and living standards going backwards.
It’s kinda weird to say that when unemployment is 3.8%. I prefer the American definition to be honest. Sure it’s more woolly, but multi factorial. As such it probably matches the ‘vibe’ more closely.
This is purely to do with government policy... Hedge funds/super are purchasing Australian property at an alarming rate.
They want a world of renters not owners, Research Blackrock and Vanguard and look at their property investments world wide.
I believe this is the main cause, fueled with immigration / Inflation.
However then Agenda 30 cones into play.... You will own nothing and be happy...
Klaus Schwab......
Raise interest rates and we would be? Mass immigration are making the numbers seem better than they are however GDP per capita growth has gone backwards and GDP hasn't grown at a normal rate and unemployment is rising. These are all signs that we are already here or not far away at worst. Consumer spending is down 6% and and disposable income is at an all time low. If it wasn't for Labour letting in anyone and everyone then we would be in the same boat as NZ currently are already
Gdp growth is still positive, but we are in a gdp per capita recession. If we stopped the huge immigration tap we'd be in a recession officially
We were also in a GDP per capita recession pre COVID.
Also NDIS is single handedly propping up employment figures but doesn’t show up because it’s private companies
Isn't a recession then needed and an ultimate good thing? Do we currently have people living in recession like conditions but due to the external money being injected into the economy via immigration we will just be in a stagcession for the forseeable future?
>Isn't a recession then needed and an ultimate good thing Tell that to NZ, UK and Canada who are experiencing higher unemployment, and not exactly better than Australia.
We have a million+ Indians flooding Canada per year. More when you include illegals. Our population for the longest time was 36 million. Now it's shot up to 40+ mil (larger in actual numbers). Median household income is 55k (both men and women working put together), 35k takeaway after taxes. While rent for a 1 bedroom is 2k. Shit is ugly in Canada and our PM continues to play the same games. Don't compare yourself to a dead rotting corpse like Canada. It doesn't do any good.
$2k per month right? We pay $600-850/week on average
We usually have a higher household income than $55k though
That might be true for some parts of Sydney, but you can definitely get a 1 bed for 2000pm in many places.
Agreed, Australia is far superior with much lower unemployment and higher growth. 👍
https://www.google.com/search?q=canada+population+growth I get a graph that shows the rate increased (relative to the decades before) in 2016, maybe a 20-40% higher. Then there was a COVID dip, and a rebound, which probably makes the current rate lower over the last few years than before the pandemic. Population then was about 36 million in 2016.
Why can't people like you understand having 1 million people enter over 3 years is different to having 1 million people enter over one year. Also, you've basically missed 3 years of construction due to covid.
Interesting, I didn’t realise.
Yes we should compare ourselves as we are heading in the exact same direction as Canada with the exact same sort of PM.
> who are experiencing higher unemployment, And yet still have high immigration rates.
The injection of funds via immigration is miniscule compared to the carry trade in money flows between Japan and Australia.
I read that as curry trade...... I had so many questions
[удалено]
Yeah I understand that. I'd prefer a curry surplus in our trade though.
No. Contractionary gaps, unemployment and disinflation/deflation are correlated but not mutually exclusive to one another. You can have a technical recession (real GDP down consecutive quarters) with low employment, high inflation, and high asset values.
In all reasonable likelihood, a recession is needed for us. Just when we thought inflation was being curtailed, the decline has started to slow, and now inflation levels are showing resilience. Per capita economic welfare is being crushed in Australia, almost entirely due to unsustainable levels of mass immigration, all in the pursuit of total GDP growth to some/any extent (which is obviously of no help to the existing citizens). The aforementioned conditions remaining constant, a recession might be necessary.
Our economy is just a Ponzi scheme, propped up by immigration. It's not sustainable, and the longer that government(s) delay the tough decisions wrt to housing supply and taxation reform, the bigger the inevitable crunch.
So it’s either recession or let property keep increasing outrageously ?
A recession is when a friend loses their job. A depression is when you lose your job.
Am I in both?
That’s repression then isn’t it?
Browsing this sub… doesn’t look like it lmao everyone is a bloody millionaire
Lower income people aren't rushing to share their financial status on reddit.
I sell a fair bit of stuff as a side hustle. Did quite well last 2 years and products moved very quickly, last 3 months its slowed right down. The business I work for was expecting the downturn 6 months ago. Bit of a shock the can keeps getting kicked down the road, eventually it's going down a drain.
Even the Marketplace scammers are slowing down lol
Just on my annual mate, will be back on in a few weeks
Don't forget to ask me if my item is still available.
Noticed that too.
I’m secretly ashamed of my salary, okay?!
I’m on $68k at 40 but I’m not embarrassed by it. I was a 6 figure income earner but my old career was killing me so I changed careers. Studying now so in the next couple years I have a relevant degree and will likely be on 6 figures again. Sometimes you have to step back. Your health and your mental state is worth far more than money.
Society is quickly moving to a rich and poor divide, the middle-class lifestyle is being eroded faster than ever. Housing prices are at the centre of this.
Yes - other countries have true income inequality. Here we are largely within a pretty narrow band for the majority of incomes compared to the rest of the world. Our issues are massive distortions due to house prices and housing costs in general. Even the best earners have trouble buying a median priced place now “from scratch”.
>Housing prices are at the centre of this. The banks are the real winners. The real landlords.
>The real landlords. The landlordlords.
If you own a house and have done so for a few years chances are you're a millionaire. 10 Mil is the new Mil
A single million in liquid assets is one thing, a (multi)million in PPOR is another.
Bank will own most of it. And what does it really mean if you own a million dollar house in your 40s? You sell it and you still have to live somewhere.
Yes but you could downsize or move to a lower cost of living area to work remotely or semi retire
Not an option for us at the moment but possibly in the future. Our house is 15 years old, nothing fancy in an outer suburb/semi regional area. Our youngest has disabilities and we need to access supports and therapies. Unfortunately many areas, particularly regional don’t have the services and resources many families need. Which is a whole other issue.
I was talking about his example of a million dollar house rather than your situation. But people have it good here, I know of a few people who grew up in HK in a family of 6 living in a two bedroom apartment with bunk beds and sofa beds. Thing is you can always downsize if you're desperate. So if you live in a house at the moment, you could have a fair bit of money left over if you buy a big apartment to move into.
Im a millionaire, there’s just a ➖ before my wealth
Which crazily doesn’t really have the same meaning it used to have. Hell when you account for property value being a “millionaire” is down right bottom of middle class in some cities. With the median house price in Sydney being 1.6M having a house, a car, a decent super fund and some savings you’d be pretty close to being a “multimillionaire” without even having an investment property. Hell 10 years ago earning 120K a year household felt phenomenal, now it’s almost as if you need 160-200 households to be middle class. *I know the median wage is still like 60-70K so middle class is probably closer to 120-140 joint. But it certainly doesn’t feel like it.
Household income is only part of the equation these days. At least as important is if, when and where you bought a house or multiple houses.
Millionaires need to grow even more money to avoid recession.
Not any more, my house is now valued at 980k
We need an Aussie middle class, working class, povvo subs.
We were in a per capita recession in 2019 before Covid. Source: https://amp.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-falls-into-per-capita-recession-as-growth-tumbles-20190306-p5122r.html
We were in a recession in Covid in 2020
Was that when we stopped people entering the country and wages increased while rents fell?
Well it was most notably all physical trade was practically closed, all flights out and in of Australia were closed.
Yes. But the government also printed crazy money which is largely why we are in the position we are now. Gotta pay the piper one day
We are in the position we are now due more than just printing too much money. Mass migration, bad trade deals and too much foreign ownership of our productive land and assets are bigger causes of our problems than just printing too much money
Sure, they contribute, but 90% of it is due to printing too much money, which pretty much every government in the world did, and pretty much every country has the same problems now.
> but 90% of it is due to printing too much money Maybe but cutting mass migration would have a massive impact. Cutting mass migration would cause house prices to slowly fall as rents fall and investors have to sell unproductive rentals. This would have a deflationary impact on the economy without creating mass unemployment as locals either end up doing the jobs immigrants were doing (but for better pay) and uncompetitive businesses fold.
No one is suggesting that reducing migration won't relieve some pressure on housing. I mean that is very basic. But Australians have also changed the way we live significantly, the growth in one or two person houses is many times higher than it was even just 5 years ago this also adds significant pressure to housing stock, as people expect to live alone which wasn't true in the past. Then you have boomers who are empty nesters living in 4 and 5 bedroom houses (my parents included). Many of these people refuse to downsize because of the transactional costs, then there are empty houses being stored by investors because of the generous tax breaks we give. Etc etc etc. Cutting migration alone will help but not solve the problem, a complex problem. Even countries with net outflow migration have seen steep increases in asset prices due to money printing. If economics is so easy, why not become an economist and fix everything?
> why not become an economist and fix everything? Because I don't have the right connections and I don't parrot the accepted economic wisdom
What connections do you need to be an economist? Pretty sure you just need to go to university and actually learn about it.
You got data on that?
https://amp.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-falls-into-per-capita-recession-as-growth-tumbles-20190306-p5122r.html
Nope. But we're heading towards 5-6 consecutive periods of negative GDP growth per capita I don't believe that's ever happened in Australia, nor in most countries.
Makes me think of Japan's situation
China is in Japan's situation of 30 years ago. Not good.
No, they are not. The "Japanification" of China's economy has been a narrative for over a decade and is probably even less true now than it was before. Their Q1 growth was 5.3%, higher than most forecasts and was driven by a pivot to advanced manufacturing from property. Yes, it's only one quarter but I doubt this will not become a long-term trend. This was achieved precisely because they were able to deflate their property "bubble" before it became too large to deal with. The pivot to advanced manufacturing only was possible because of the property deflation. Ridiculous property prices distorts economic incentives (this is what happened to Hong Kong). There are lessons in this but I doubt Australian politicians will learn from it.
China will grow at 4-5% at least for the next 10 years. They are leading the world when it comes to EV, solar and other emerging tech. China bashing has been happening for the last 25 years. USA and other western countries just can't see how China can grow so much. But you can't blame them, they have a limited knowledge about most Non western countries. Just look at the anti Indian comments here in Reddit. I have been to China several times in the last 5 years. It is technologically so far ahead of Australia, every time I go I feel like I have come from a small village for the first 2-3 days. And I have lived in Melbourne for the last 20 years.
Lol I'm Australian. We are always complaining but would rather bury our heads in the sands than admit a communist country has figured out markets better than we have. Easier to blame immigrants in the end.
Yeah I also heard they are pulling out of a lot of their Australian investments in retail also. Still wild to me that we allow so much of our land to be bought internationally
I guess it's not that wild if you consider that high property prices are a feature, rather than a bug, of the system.
Drinking the Kool-Aid from a giant punch bowl with both hands here nhan5653.
If it helps you sleep better at night, sure. But narratives of China's "doomed" economy have been around since the 90s. It hasn't happened yet.
Everything you wrote was straight from party line propaganda and has no basis in real world observation. That includes GDP. And not sure what you mean by "helps me sleep better at night". China will be bringing down the world economy with its decline. This terrifies me and I wish it wasn't the case but here we are. I would sleep much better if China had a healthy, sustainable economy. I mean the idea that you think China's property bubble is deflated with the worse behind it just shows you are not engaging with reality when it comes to where China is and where it's going.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-q1-gdp-grows-faster-than-expected-policy-support-2024-04-16/ Is Reuters also party propaganda?
You are presenting yourself as well read on Chinese economics yet you aren't aware that Chinese GDP has been considered unreliable in its accuracy for decades now?
the reason why we dont have a recession and never will, is they have figured out they can pass it on to the people. meaning instead of job losses, house prices going down, you just become poorer slowly but surely.
Retail sales surged 1% last month (12% annual), employment levels are the highest ever. We are nowhere near a recession.
In December 2023 sales were -2.1 percent as of the latest retail spending update (Feburary) it has only rissen 0.3 percent in Feburary. The 1 percent figure you're quoting was back in Janurary. Unemployment rose to 4.1 percent
Lol where did you get this annual number from? Don't tell me you took the 1% figure and multiplied it by 12?
Take away NDIS propped up companies, are we still booming?
Have you seen how many Camrys are getting around! No chance
In reality yes, but as you ve seen, you can pretend you are not in recession if you focus on rly specific numbers and have really specific definition. The average person notices the recession while the mainstream media and the ""experts"" here keep trying to gaslight people that all is going great xxd
Well..."recession" has a really specific definition too.
[удалено]
Actually that’s a depression good sir
Fun fact. It doesn't. It's got plenty of definitions and some countries don't even use a definition, they use a panel of economists to decide before they call one.
Fine enough, but would any of the other uncommon measures signal we're in a recession?
I'm not about to go through them all and check 😁 Interestingly though we are all discussing one of the newest in the per capita recession. One that until recently no one thought could really exist without total GDP shrinking yet here it is.
Fair - though my comment was supposed to be a little snarky in that I believe most measures wouldn't show us to be in a recession. We just have a rough cost-of-living and rental crisis that makes it feel worse.
I missed that then. I was just offering up a fact without an opinion. Someone else accused me of some sort of agenda like I was part of a conspiracy by big God knows what to make the public think we are actually in a recession. Clearly things got too heated.
[удалено]
Is it official? Did we have a referendum to include it in the constitution? What makes it Australia's? The narrative that there is no definition of recession? Are you now trying to argue that the definition of the word definition isn't what we thought it was? Grow up. There's no narrative except yours which I am guessing is "no recession here". I am sure when that doesn't suit you will move onto one of the other ways of measuring it or talking about something else.
Nah not yet, maybe it'll never happen again if we import enough people 🤡
No we're not, but only because of immigration growing our GDP every quarter, per capita though our economy is pretty bad, the gap in economical classes has suddenly become very obvious in the last few years than it ever has in the past (anecdotally atleast).
No. We're not. As other posters have said, a recession has a specific, technical, objective definition. It's not "the vibe". If we were, you would have seen lots of announcements and the coalition using it to blame the federal government for bad economic management.
And that’s why they keep pumping immigration. Who cares about a housing crisis as long as you aren’t labeled bad economic managers.
Same thing of avoiding a "technical recession" The reality is that the pie is getting bigger but everybody gets less. Call it what it is, using Queensland Medical Association standards: We're in a Recession (per capita).
I mean, we can all make up statistics to try and argue our point... Recession per capita isn't something you'll find being used by any economic authority (the RBA or the Treasury, not your favourite media commentator or Facebook). Along those lines... Why would you look to the Queensland **Medical** Association for economic metrics? For example, let's assume our female proportion had grown proportionally higher than our male population in recent quarters. We're probably in a "GDP per female" recession but not in a "GDP per male". Just because I can define a statistic doesn't make it useful.
The QMA standards for who can use the title Doctor became the national stamdards a few years ago. Basically, any allied medical professional can now call themselves Doctor, so long as they include their specialty in brackets afterwards. For example, a chiropractor can insist on being called Doctor (Chiropractor). Your osteo... Doctor (Osteo). Are they really Doctors? Can they write a prescription? Can they give you the good drugs? Can they order a scan? Does Medicare give a shit about them? So, we're in a recession (per capita) as opposed to a recession (technical) or recession (GDP). It's a very frivolous engineered statistic when the reality is that everybody is getting poorer bit because you can show that there's more money in the system then there's nothing wrong. It makes the word meaningless when you can game it, just like a Dr title is now.
Lol per capita recession is certainly relevant.
Correct answer based on the accepted and historically used definition of what a recession is in Australia - that being 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth = NO we are not. Lately everyone jumps on the "per capita recession" because it helps the narrative that we are doing badly, but that is a slightly different metric and a different way looking at it, specifically it's repeated recently because it's a way to fit a narrative rather than the historically accepted definition. Part of the problem and why people want to go for per capita recession is this binary narrative of "in recession" or "not in recession" we probably should be looking at it like the sliding scale it is rather than yes or no. The GDP last reported qtr was not negative... but it was weak, very weak actually. The job market is still strong though considering, unemployment from the last report is still quite low, so either things are changing very fast and you are seeing the leading edge of that change.. OR more likely you are seeing something specific to your industry or your location rather than an indicator of a recession.
You can’t be sure we’re not. Recession is diagnosed retrospectively. If the current quarter turns out to be negative growth and the next quarter is - would that not be that we are currently in recession? You would have been at the beginning of the 6 month period of contraction but doesn’t make this month not part of the recession.
Actually I can be sure, because it isn't called a recession until 2 consecutive quarters, even if right now we are in a negative quarter that hasn't been reported yet, it would only be the 1st one of the 2 consecutive required. It's called a recession AFTER its reported 2 consecutive, not during. The concept I believe is that a recession is a PROLONGED period - IE a minimum of 6 months. Even if this quarter and next quarter are negative meeting that requirement, its not a recession this quarter.. it's kinda pedantic I guess but it's an official term so needs to be I suppose, Sure I'll agree we could be at the start of a recession but we can't call it now, and really why get hung up on it? Like I said before, we probably need to stop getting hung up on the binary definition, what's clear is the GDP was very weak last quarter and likely will be again, who cares if its a "recession" or not really? people are hurting, the COL is real, we have a rental crisis and a house price crisis, things are not great for many even if we are not in a recession.
No as I said you can’t be sure because you can be in something when it’s retrospectively labelled. World War 1 was World War 1 at the time those brave soldiers were fighting for freedoms even though it wasn’t called that during the actual war.
geeze, it's pretty obvious when you are in a war.. like shooting at someone or being shot at is pretty easy to know. As has been proven from the last 2 or 3 quarters when many on this sub wanted it to be a recession 6 months ago.. it hasn't yet happened, so it's clearly not very easy to be sure about if we are in a recession or not. Being in a war is much, much. much more obvious. Chill out man, you seem to be getting upset just because someone is presenting a different viewpoint to you.
Also, by your argument, say if we find out this quarter and next quarter are negative growth, followed by a quarter of positive growth, when were we in recession (which is literally defined as two quarters of negative growth by economists) - it’s the start of this quarter. So I can with 100% certainty you cannot be sure and I can also see you don’t know what you’re talking about.
lol dude relax. Sure by your argument we could be right at the start of a recession - but we cant say that until its been reported. From my perspective it hasn't been reported and even if we are negative this quarter well next quarter could be positive again. It's like you're trying to prove something "could" happen.
The question was are we in a recession and you answered no which was incorrect, as you cannot know that. Peddling misinformation is not useful. My ‘argument’ is not an argument it’s a statement of fact. Recessions are diagnosed retrospectively and therefore we can be in one. Yes we can talk about leading indicators but to say we categorically aren’t in recession when we very well could be is a falsehood and if I was being unkind I could very well call you a liar. I’m not calling you that I’m making it clear that you’ve misunderstood and we can in fact right now as we speak because in recession, and some leading indicators might suggest we are and others might but we will not know until after the fact. That’s the truth and a statement of fact. ‘No we are not in recession’ is NOT correct to say, but more nuance ‘we very well could be, but we can’t say with certainty until later, and here’s some indicators that we are’ is how one could put it if they want to speak truthfully.
Geeze ok mate, I accept I should have said "officially NO we are not, but maybe in 6 months we could look back say it was the start of it" It's kind of a silly point to make frankly, I still stand by right now we are not officially in a recession, and I can be certain of that statement because it has not been called. But yes I agree we could look back and say now was the start of it. and I also stand by my point.. who cares? people are doing it tough, does it really matter if we are officially in one or not.. it's a binary thing that does not reflect the sliding scale of pain the economy is in.. but obviously to you it does so fair enough. Hope whatever is your pain point.. things get better for you, and I'm not saying that tongue in cheek, I genuinely hope whatever is going on things get better for you.
GDP has always been a bad measure of economic health but governments like it because it's easily fudged
Ah yes, the ever political RBA likes the GDP measure for its fudgability. Importantly, like underemployment, we keep strict definitions for longitudinal studies, and revise and introduce new studies to better study our economy (e.g. unemployed vs underemployment).
Technically unemployment is still below 4% where historically it should be around 5%-6% so it's not yet a recession but it's heading there if migration is reduced. The layoffs is just the economy reverting to the mean. Expect the unemployment rate to tick up.
True recession is measured is negative GDP, has nothing to do with unemployment
wow. thanks for the lesson. it's like saying starvation is the act of not getting enough sustenance it's not about not eating food. like duh. but you know not eating will lead to starvation right? unemployment leads to less income and less spending which will cause GDP to go down.
Lots of business in my town at least are having cash flow issues. People not paying bills because people aren’t being paid… domino effect
Watch unemployment and underemployment take off Then it'll be obvious
No, but the government is trying to land us there
Recession 🤣 Just wait for what's coming, Australia is already crashing, next year is going to be quite interesting
All the restaurants in Brisbane are packed tonight... looks good to me 
We are in a per capita recession as others said so technically we are at the very beginning of the downturn. Other economies have shown that you can't fight inflation without causing a recession so it is coming. Specific industries are shrinking or seeing their growth stagnate but it is widespread in the economy yet and an average person isn't seeing yet just yet. RBA has only one tool to fight it and will keep pushing for higher interest rates. They can't say that to the public obviously so are keeping their statements vague - learnt from the Lowe's mistake. The problem is the government that keeps pouring more cash into the economy (purely political reasons that help them but don't help the nation) Give it time. We are in for a downturn. It might not be a rapid fall into depression but rather a gradually worsening economic environment
most certainly are. the reason for the immigration is so the pollies can avoid using the full R word.
It feels like it. Although, the immigration driven consumption is difficult to get a feel for because the market activity is concentrated in particular sectors. Our previous metrics are not comparable when market factors are so different. Ie. Population growth was babies, now it is adults who are peak consumers. They also are more prone to suppressing wage growth and drive rental prices. Distorts a lot.
Australians skipped the recession and are now in a period where holding on means everything to everyone here. Mental health decline, broken families, loneliness and increasing wealth are what you can expect on the road ahead. A very bleak and dire place to be wealthy. It's not like you will have a choice here.
Plenty of 'feels like it' and 'vibe' comments here. Confirmation bias. I look around and see every pub and restaurant heaving, shopping centres packed, overseas travel booming, six month wait lists for new cars, private schools increasing fees and still have wait lists, hotels full.. and on and on..
Everyone spending like we are booming
Yes we are clearly in a recession but the official figures are denying it we seem to be suffering all the consequences of one.
If we are in a recession, the government and the rba will change fiscal policies to release more money to the public
So like... Tax cuts?
[удалено]
Apart from ANZ, RIO, Tech, BPT most asx 200 companies
Unemployment still sitting fine though. It's a lagging metric but it's picking those companies doesn't refute that unemployment with a 4 in front of it is a very healthy economy.
Have you seen the insane number of jobs on seek for tech? I doubt it…
This is fine 🐶🔥
If you removed NDIS and immigration related growth I suspect we would be in a decent recession.
we are in recession (for real) we are not in recession (on paper)
YES. but immigration hides it. We desperately need reform.
Who's asking?
Nope, thanks to immigration.
Debt growing = inflation growing = GDP growing
Manipulating the workforce ... higher unemployment the more desperate people want jobs the easier the employer can negotiate work conditions. The whole event is to drag people working from home back into the office. Plenty or mining jobs ... though.
Heck no, not yet. Lived through one. Fun times.
No , certain areas may be tightening up but overall it’s full steam ahead
I am jobless, not going out anymore, not spending, only cooking at home and only buying groceries on sale. So, yeah, for me at least yes!
Worse were in a crash lol
Anecdote but my wife is negotiating her salary rise right now. We decided to have a look the last few weeks for job ads in her area and they’re probably about 20-30% the number there were a year or so ago. If there were layoffs I can see a fair number in the market… but other fields are on the rise (particularly anything in high demand from boomers who have substantial established savings). Ultimately it seems negotiating position is no where near what it was 2 years ago. Recession statistics look in the rear view mirror so not sure in own now but projecting I’d say there could easily be one this year.
Building company go pop.
Yes, we are in a per capita recession. Real household incomes are going backwards.
We are on the precipice of a construction boom. Nothing Is slowing down. I’m hiring people.
Yes In laymen's terms If u have 100 gdp and 100 people that means 1 per person cool If u have 110 gdp (increased by mass immigration) but u are 120 people = .917 per person. That's what it means u feel broke and have no money although the pie has increased slightly it's not enough to offset the amount of people coming in. Hence recession per person capita what ever. So conclusion yes yes we are If u remove mass immigration u will see gpd fall eg 80 gdp but 100 people... .8 per person savage.... But the issue is we as a society are buckling under the lack of infrastructure and actual jobs that train and grow the economy eg manufacturing etc Not uber uber eats drivers and 7 11 petrol station attendants.....
With inflation running at 3.4% we are still above the productive capacity of the economy, so will need to slow even further. The interesting thing about the latest 1% rise this quarter was that 0.6% of the 1% was driven by education fees. All those expensive private schools have increased their fees tremendously. Looks like the CoL is going to stick it to the rich families. Betcha they will start whinging soon.
Per capita definitely.
Nah unemployment needs to go way way higher
well it's trending up. it just rose to 4.1 percent which is the highest its been in about two years or so.
We are in a per capita recession as gdp is only growing due to increased immigration
Is per capita recession the new buzz word for coping. Lmfao Recession you are dreaming.
We're certainly in a retail recession. Though retailers are in huge denial.
Many industries are. My business is dead, and so are most of my clients. It’s been that way since Xmas.
They will hide un/underemployment via disability pensions etc
No - the exact opposite. We’re in a boom.
Employment ok, inflation going down, gdp good. No Recession means a few major indicators go negative more than one time in a row… There is not many lay offs and mainly talking about US tech companies lay offs.
Per capita definitely. Who cares if we aren't in a technical recession? The reason why we care whether we are in recession is because the impacts of recession; ie. companies laying off workers, unemployment going up and living standards going backwards.
Nah. we aren't. Look at how busy the shops are. Only tech companies are suffering.
Animation and foster care workers are suffering too
Not while migrants are flowing in by the hundreds of thousands
It’s kinda weird to say that when unemployment is 3.8%. I prefer the American definition to be honest. Sure it’s more woolly, but multi factorial. As such it probably matches the ‘vibe’ more closely.
If it was measured the same way it was in the 80s then yeah. I guess they change the rules as they go. Seems legit.
This is purely to do with government policy... Hedge funds/super are purchasing Australian property at an alarming rate. They want a world of renters not owners, Research Blackrock and Vanguard and look at their property investments world wide. I believe this is the main cause, fueled with immigration / Inflation. However then Agenda 30 cones into play.... You will own nothing and be happy... Klaus Schwab......
We're not in a recession, if we had to raise interest rates any more we would be but we're not.
Raise interest rates and we would be? Mass immigration are making the numbers seem better than they are however GDP per capita growth has gone backwards and GDP hasn't grown at a normal rate and unemployment is rising. These are all signs that we are already here or not far away at worst. Consumer spending is down 6% and and disposable income is at an all time low. If it wasn't for Labour letting in anyone and everyone then we would be in the same boat as NZ currently are already