NZ petrol prices have always been so high, no wonder so many leave for Australia.
Few years ago, when being a tourist pre-covid, I had a mini heart attack looking at ~NZ$80 for a full tank for a freaking Suzuki Swift on the cheapest petrol. The only place that I've filled up where it's been so expensive is Uluru/Yulara and that's because they can get away with it.
You say this as a joke - BUT what if the RBA says well shit, cant increase rates in all this global uncertainty - so fuck it, sub 1%, 5 year fixed loans for everyone.
Yes!! Would love it the bank pay me to have a loan with negative interest rates.. id just withdraw the cash every month and in invest it into other assets.
Ukraine invasion house prices go up
Iraq invasion house prices go up
Syria invasion house prices go up
Yemeni invasion house prices go up
Libyan invasion house prices go up
High unemployment, social instability. You know, things that happen when there is a significant crash in asset prices (see the 2008 GFC for reference).
If you think that many people will still have jobs and everything else will be rosy even with a 60% crash then you're sorely mistaken.
Too many politicians own property, a 60% drop will never happen here they will make sure of it, especially in an election year. We already had a recession in 2020 remember?
We all know that Russia has been wanting Ukraine back for a long time, you don't need to be a political scientist to figure this out lol.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
What I’m saying is that you and others can try and latch onto dreams about the nature of inflation, but it won’t change the fact that inflation is going to get worse because of what’s happened today and the Australian property market is crashing.
It is going to be a bloodbath.
Inflation now is endemic and is about to be exacerbated.
The RBA will be raising rates aggressively.
I expect property prices to fall 50%+.
The great Aussie housing crash has begun.
I'm not angry at you mate, but your complete refusal to respond to what should be a very basic question is frustrating - surely you can see that
Exchanges with you go - you make a statement, I ask a follow up, you repeat, I ask again, you repeat, I give up.
Not exactly an enjoyable exchange.
This is me giving up. Again. Enjoy your night.
You keep saying this but I can't see where the constant fall of 50+% call holds historical water though. Worst there has ever been is only about -20% in almost 150 years. Unless I'm reading this wrong
https://www.realestate.com.au/insights/if-housing-price-growth-seems-unusually-high-thats-because-it-is/
So your response to some actual evidence is some whataboutism?
They aren't Australia, all their politicians don't own a bunch of properties, all their citizens don't view property ownership as the #1 priority like Australians generally do, Perth isnt australia....so one suburb in one city might drop by a chunk, while a whole bunch along the coast continues to rise in leaps and bounds making the property market overall flat.
Even the last time there was mega inflation the property prices doubled.
You might have noticed they've been hesitant to raise
Reason being yes there's demand driven but (again, you might have noticed this too) there's a whole lot of supply issues in there
It's literally econ102, very basic concept. You don't fix supply issues by raising rates
Now, I'm just some dummy who didn't finish school who's happened to have read a book or two. u/without_my_remorse has a masters in econ. I was hoping he'd explain "inflation dictates they must raise rates", but well... You can see how that went.
If property crashes 60% wealthy people are just gonna buy them all up with outright cash or anyone with a 20% deposit is gonna buy it with a 50% LVR.
If I had a 300k deposit looking to buy a 1.5m house borrowing 1.2m my repayments are the same as borrowing 300k at 18%. And then I would literally pay that off asap within 5-9 years, paying less than $500k total for the whole loan.
Like I think you underestimate how many people can afford a home loan at 6% interest if house prices dropped 20%. And you're overestimating how many defaults will occur.
> inflation dictates they must raise rates.
it would depend on how bad inflation is - and the nature of the inflation. Demand pull inflation would mean raising rates, but supply restrictions and other factors would mean raising rates aren't gonna move it as much, while adding pain to economic growth.
> the distinction of why it manifested isn’t going to matter one bit
it certainly does - restricting credit liquidity in the face of supply and production disruptions will prevent investment in making more supply. It's not like the inflation comes from unfettered printing of money the way Venezuela or Zimbabwe did.
The inflation has 100% come from the unfettered printing of money. People aren't bidding up the price of the last potato on the shelves. They have excess cash and want to spend it on luxuries. Why do they have excess cash? It certainly isn't due to wages.
Ummm no. The majority of inflation has been due to supply disruptions such as workers in isolation leading to not enough product reaching shelves, port congestion driving up freight prices, semiconductor shortages causing a global shortfall of 4 million cars to name a few. Majority of the inflation is in products with inelastic demand like cooking oil and petroleum, and is supply side driven. Raising rates to try and temper cost pushed inflation risks causing stagflation, especially as wage growth is still low.
RBA will raise rates this year I’m sorry to tell you mate.
The great Australian property crash has begun.
I expect values to fall 50%+ by the end of 2025.
So imagine a world where they don’t raise rates because apparently the kings and queens running Australia want to secure their property investments (as if they couldn’t sell ages before they knew the knobs they were about to turn).
What would hyper inflation look like in Australia?
They’ll change their tune if inflation becomes pronounced in Australia. Central bankers have forgotten what it’s like to operate in a high inflation environment – they won’t enjoy the political spotlight that it’ll put them under.
Rising energy prices increase inflation. Interested to see what the USA does. I bet Australia isn’t far behind, although yet to see inflation as high as it is in the USA.
> Yep Property is a GUARANTEED return on investment.
historically this is what people say a fairly short period before they get absolutely pimp slapped by the market
Someone on this subreddit was unironically saying house prices were guaranteed to go up 30% this year (can find the link but not bothered) and got hugely upvoted.
Then you'll see swarms of property bulls bemoaning how this sub is "full of property bears".
Circlejerk is strong. Strong indeed.
I gonna say for you to win, house prices need to go up a measurably significant amount in the next 2 months, lets say 5% increase for average house price in Australia between now and end of April
With that goal in place, I will bet against you :)
Thank you Mr Putin, now expecting massive gains on my 4 investment properties. No way the RBA rises interest rates anytime soon. Price of fuel will be crazy high.
I’ll bet against you. Uncertainty in the markets means that the cost of debt will go up (banks will be less willing to loan and loans they do make will be at higher rates). Borrowers will have less money and won’t be bidding as high they would have say 2-6 months ago. Ergo, prices will go plateau or decline a couple of %
*What's your position,*
*Over what timeframe, and how*
*Would you measure it?*
\- withcertainty
---
^(I detect haikus. And sometimes, successfully.) ^[Learn more about me.](https://www.reddit.com/r/haikusbot/)
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Increase cost of energy, pushing up all costs. Increasing interest rates will further reduce supply and increase costs further.
Interest rates will remain low to encourage further capital to be invested in supply creation.
Fun fact, China invaded Vietnam in the 70s and got their asses handed to them. They are not an effective fighting force and no wonder with the level of corruption. Military positions being sold to the highest bidder. The payback is siphoning off money that is supposed to be for military hardware and supplies.
Why would that disappoint me?
My argument is that they are a much more industrialised and competent nation now, and therefore much more dangerous; at a time when democracy is stumbling about.
I'd much prefer 1970's China.
I respectfully challenge you. Interest rate will go up and I believe the residential housing market will be flat and not go up. The invasion of Ukraine might accelerate the interest rate going up. What could really threaten house price is if China decide to invade Taiwan while Russia is invading Ukraine.
No way. The crisis is exactly what the US and Australia wants to push the blame away from their incompetent monetary policies that has created the massive inflation in the first place.
The stones are now set in place to allow the Fed and RBA to point the finger at the crisis as a reason why inflation has ramped up even higher and install interest rates without the masses claiming the markets collapsed because of a policy mistake.
We will see massive asset price bubbles pop and double digit interest rates to combat even higher inflation that is about to come.
WWIII starts and housing rises. After the Nuclear Winter, there will be a special holiday home selling for a record 10 mill bottle caps.
Unexpected fallout
Oh I'm expecting fallout lol
BRB going to the nearest baseball diamond and establishing diamond city
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Fuel prices will go up in a couple of days nodoubt. $1.80 will be seen as cheap.
1.80 is already cheap. 2.00 on average in Tas.
1.70 in regional NSW
2.20 In WA
Yeah you guys are always screwed
$1.95-$2 in Perth though
If you buy the cheap shit i suppose
I paid $2.14 in Devonport yesterday. Edit: actually, worse, 214.9
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NZ petrol prices have always been so high, no wonder so many leave for Australia. Few years ago, when being a tourist pre-covid, I had a mini heart attack looking at ~NZ$80 for a full tank for a freaking Suzuki Swift on the cheapest petrol. The only place that I've filled up where it's been so expensive is Uluru/Yulara and that's because they can get away with it.
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In return, however small, I appreciated not having to go inside the petrol station to pay. Really appreciated being able to pay at the pump!
Plenty of room to catch up with European prices. Shit’s wild over there
Just saw $1.99 in SA.
That's because people are still Russian to get into the property market
I see what you did there.
I don't understand. Can someone explain the joke for me?
Let me see if I can rephrase it in a way Ukraine understand
Why is it so hard for you guys to Putin simple words??
It's Vladi-mirly elementary, my dear Watson
And that fills my Russia pun quota for the day, I Moscow to another thread now.
Some people hate puns but they can Crimea river!
FK, ok. Have an upvote.
Interest rates go down? House prices up. Interest rates go up? House prices up. Over, under
It’s Tuesday House prices up It’s Friday House prices up I am wearing a blue shirt House prices up See…?
Yup. Sums it up.
I would prefer it summed down
Hooms go up Hoom always go up Hoom best
r/unexpectedpawnee
Interest rates hold? House prices up.
You say this as a joke - BUT what if the RBA says well shit, cant increase rates in all this global uncertainty - so fuck it, sub 1%, 5 year fixed loans for everyone.
Keep going...
Yes!! Would love it the bank pay me to have a loan with negative interest rates.. id just withdraw the cash every month and in invest it into other assets.
By other assets, you mean housing in the true blue Aussie way
No thanks I filled up on cheese and have no risk appetite :(
Ukraine invasion house prices go up Iraq invasion house prices go up Syria invasion house prices go up Yemeni invasion house prices go up Libyan invasion house prices go up
I will bet against you. This is bad for inflation and will mean rates have to go up more. Which is bad for housing.
In Soviet Ukraine, Sydney house market crush you
Mate, with pro build going under, Ukraine, and the recent report of real wages drop… no way rba is going to raise rates. Watch the US fed drop theirs.
Mate, inflation dictates they must raise rates. Aussie property about the crash 60%+.
Keep telling yourself that !
He has been for the past 5 years. Didn’t quite play out that way
I predicted Russia would invade Ukraine in 2022. Are you saying I was wrong?
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014…
Last year I correctly predicted Russia would invade Ukraine. I was right about that and I will be right about the housing crash.
Hahaha 60%. Lol
Haha yep it will be a bloodbath. Good luck to you and your family mate. 😂😂😂😂
I’m fine. Anyone who uses that many laugh emojis has issues.
What’s wrong with laugh emoji’s? 😂😂😂😂😂
If house prices drop 60% then we will have more things to worry about then that.
What will you be worrying about?
High unemployment, social instability. You know, things that happen when there is a significant crash in asset prices (see the 2008 GFC for reference). If you think that many people will still have jobs and everything else will be rosy even with a 60% crash then you're sorely mistaken.
I think Australia will have a recession and financial crisis. It’s sad what will become of property owners here in this country.
Too many politicians own property, a 60% drop will never happen here they will make sure of it, especially in an election year. We already had a recession in 2020 remember?
Time traveller confirmed?
We all know that Russia has been wanting Ukraine back for a long time, you don't need to be a political scientist to figure this out lol. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
I should have put a /s.
Hahaha all good, I wasn't directing it at you.
One of the few who are betting on this prediction so I can break into the market lol
Surely you know the difference between demand pull and cost push inflation Only one of those is countered with raising rates. Guess which.
What I’m saying is that you and others can try and latch onto dreams about the nature of inflation, but it won’t change the fact that inflation is going to get worse because of what’s happened today and the Australian property market is crashing. It is going to be a bloodbath.
So you believe cost push inflation is countered by raising rates? Your statement about inflation dictates they must raise is why I'm asking.
Inflation now is endemic and is about to be exacerbated. The RBA will be raising rates aggressively. I expect property prices to fall 50%+. The great Aussie housing crash has begun.
So you believe cost push inflation requires interest rates to be raised Righto. There's some personal beliefs clouding you there mate.
There’s no point getting angry at me. I’ve warned about the property bubble for awhile now.
I'm not angry at you mate, but your complete refusal to respond to what should be a very basic question is frustrating - surely you can see that Exchanges with you go - you make a statement, I ask a follow up, you repeat, I ask again, you repeat, I give up. Not exactly an enjoyable exchange. This is me giving up. Again. Enjoy your night.
You keep saying this but I can't see where the constant fall of 50+% call holds historical water though. Worst there has ever been is only about -20% in almost 150 years. Unless I'm reading this wrong https://www.realestate.com.au/insights/if-housing-price-growth-seems-unusually-high-thats-because-it-is/
In the last 20 years alone the US, Spain and Ireland have all had 50%+ crashes. Even Perth has fallen 30%.
So your response to some actual evidence is some whataboutism? They aren't Australia, all their politicians don't own a bunch of properties, all their citizens don't view property ownership as the #1 priority like Australians generally do, Perth isnt australia....so one suburb in one city might drop by a chunk, while a whole bunch along the coast continues to rise in leaps and bounds making the property market overall flat. Even the last time there was mega inflation the property prices doubled.
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You might have noticed they've been hesitant to raise Reason being yes there's demand driven but (again, you might have noticed this too) there's a whole lot of supply issues in there It's literally econ102, very basic concept. You don't fix supply issues by raising rates Now, I'm just some dummy who didn't finish school who's happened to have read a book or two. u/without_my_remorse has a masters in econ. I was hoping he'd explain "inflation dictates they must raise rates", but well... You can see how that went.
I only have a BEc. My masters is in AppFin. 👍🏻
If property crashes 60% wealthy people are just gonna buy them all up with outright cash or anyone with a 20% deposit is gonna buy it with a 50% LVR. If I had a 300k deposit looking to buy a 1.5m house borrowing 1.2m my repayments are the same as borrowing 300k at 18%. And then I would literally pay that off asap within 5-9 years, paying less than $500k total for the whole loan. Like I think you underestimate how many people can afford a home loan at 6% interest if house prices dropped 20%. And you're overestimating how many defaults will occur.
No this is totally wrong. We can see from previous crashes in property and stocks that this simply doesn’t happen. It’s laughable you think this mate.
A crash that monumental may result in high job losses.
It's the other way around.
Theres zero chance of a 60% price drop
Come back at the end of 2025 and tell me how that is going for you mate. 😉
> inflation dictates they must raise rates. it would depend on how bad inflation is - and the nature of the inflation. Demand pull inflation would mean raising rates, but supply restrictions and other factors would mean raising rates aren't gonna move it as much, while adding pain to economic growth.
lol what are you talking about.. Inflation is about to get much worse and the distinction of why it manifested isn’t going to matter one bit.
> the distinction of why it manifested isn’t going to matter one bit it certainly does - restricting credit liquidity in the face of supply and production disruptions will prevent investment in making more supply. It's not like the inflation comes from unfettered printing of money the way Venezuela or Zimbabwe did.
The inflation has 100% come from the unfettered printing of money. People aren't bidding up the price of the last potato on the shelves. They have excess cash and want to spend it on luxuries. Why do they have excess cash? It certainly isn't due to wages.
Ummm no. The majority of inflation has been due to supply disruptions such as workers in isolation leading to not enough product reaching shelves, port congestion driving up freight prices, semiconductor shortages causing a global shortfall of 4 million cars to name a few. Majority of the inflation is in products with inelastic demand like cooking oil and petroleum, and is supply side driven. Raising rates to try and temper cost pushed inflation risks causing stagflation, especially as wage growth is still low.
I disagree entirely. We will see if I’m right when the RBA raises rates this year.
Inflation dictates they should raise rates, there's always the possibility of going down the Turkey path.
Yes exactly mate. Which will destroy asset prices anyway!
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They said they wouldn’t raise rates until 2024 too. They’ve been totally wrong.
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They have no choice now. The great Aussie housing crash has begun.
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Rates will rise 1% this year alone.
I appreciate you even if the casual visitors here don't.
Thanks mate 🤝
What drugs are you on? Seriously this war is great for Australian property, no way RBA raises anytime soon. Now expecting 20%+ this yr.
RBA will raise rates this year I’m sorry to tell you mate. The great Australian property crash has begun. I expect values to fall 50%+ by the end of 2025.
So imagine a world where they don’t raise rates because apparently the kings and queens running Australia want to secure their property investments (as if they couldn’t sell ages before they knew the knobs they were about to turn). What would hyper inflation look like in Australia?
They also said we wouldn't engage in any QE ... a few short months later...
Yep RBA have stuffed up massively.
They’ll change their tune if inflation becomes pronounced in Australia. Central bankers have forgotten what it’s like to operate in a high inflation environment – they won’t enjoy the political spotlight that it’ll put them under.
Rising energy prices increase inflation. Interested to see what the USA does. I bet Australia isn’t far behind, although yet to see inflation as high as it is in the USA.
Houses only go up. It’s now fact.
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> Yep Property is a GUARANTEED return on investment. historically this is what people say a fairly short period before they get absolutely pimp slapped by the market
i think you missed the /s ?
who can tell, there are millions in this country who legitimately think like that.
Someone on this subreddit was unironically saying house prices were guaranteed to go up 30% this year (can find the link but not bothered) and got hugely upvoted. Then you'll see swarms of property bulls bemoaning how this sub is "full of property bears". Circlejerk is strong. Strong indeed.
Confirmation bias 101
This is why self.managed super reigns supreme
Only if you can justify the high costs of managing it yourself
RoI justifies that cost quite easily
Well i just grabbed a house this week so here we go
I gonna say for you to win, house prices need to go up a measurably significant amount in the next 2 months, lets say 5% increase for average house price in Australia between now and end of April With that goal in place, I will bet against you :)
They won't be raising rates this year. I guarantee it.
You mean global uncertainty isn't a good time to be raising rates? Say it aint so!
You is smart!
If they don't there will just be another govt incentive, more QE and eased restrictions on debt
Thank you Mr Putin, now expecting massive gains on my 4 investment properties. No way the RBA rises interest rates anytime soon. Price of fuel will be crazy high.
Low quality shit post
Guarantee Australian property continues its climb.
Low quality shit post
I’ll bet against you. Uncertainty in the markets means that the cost of debt will go up (banks will be less willing to loan and loans they do make will be at higher rates). Borrowers will have less money and won’t be bidding as high they would have say 2-6 months ago. Ergo, prices will go plateau or decline a couple of %
Every single news event will be used to price gouge until the people riot
What's your position, over what timeframe, and how would you measure it?
*What's your position,* *Over what timeframe, and how* *Would you measure it?* \- withcertainty --- ^(I detect haikus. And sometimes, successfully.) ^[Learn more about me.](https://www.reddit.com/r/haikusbot/) ^(Opt out of replies: "haikusbot opt out" | Delete my comment: "haikusbot delete")
Whats the correlation between house prices and the war in Ukraine? Just curious
Increase cost of energy, pushing up all costs. Increasing interest rates will further reduce supply and increase costs further. Interest rates will remain low to encourage further capital to be invested in supply creation.
Please don’t make light of the situation. Ppl r dying. Please have respect for the people caught up in a war.
How dare you make jokes at a time when I am scared!
People are always dying
NIMBY, bro /s.
Can we close/lock this shit
China will go for Taiwan first.
China will take you before they take Taiwan buddy
I’ll get the lube
Fun fact, China invaded Vietnam in the 70s and got their asses handed to them. They are not an effective fighting force and no wonder with the level of corruption. Military positions being sold to the highest bidder. The payback is siphoning off money that is supposed to be for military hardware and supplies.
I'll venture that there is a difference between 2020's China and 1970's China.
You might be sorely disappointed. Xi Jinping is returning China to the Mao days
Why would that disappoint me? My argument is that they are a much more industrialised and competent nation now, and therefore much more dangerous; at a time when democracy is stumbling about. I'd much prefer 1970's China.
China will take Taiwan
This is a really heartless thing to say. Like, that's your concern ?
If nukes start flying I’m expecting at least a 100%+ Increase.
This is Australiaaayaaa.
I respectfully challenge you. Interest rate will go up and I believe the residential housing market will be flat and not go up. The invasion of Ukraine might accelerate the interest rate going up. What could really threaten house price is if China decide to invade Taiwan while Russia is invading Ukraine.
No way. The crisis is exactly what the US and Australia wants to push the blame away from their incompetent monetary policies that has created the massive inflation in the first place. The stones are now set in place to allow the Fed and RBA to point the finger at the crisis as a reason why inflation has ramped up even higher and install interest rates without the masses claiming the markets collapsed because of a policy mistake. We will see massive asset price bubbles pop and double digit interest rates to combat even higher inflation that is about to come.
And interest rates will remain the same or even lower.