What is he talking about here? Don’t futures contract all have to settle in spot anyway? Why would a contract to buy/sell a certain number of BTC at a predetermined date be paper BTC?
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1801727009602646427?s=46
Clicking the @BlackRock link in the linked post from X just takes you to the Black Rock X feed. A quick scroll showed none of the listed quotes so they may just come from the comments to the BR posts. I guess you’d need to code a simple bot to actually answer your question or waste a lot of time reading the comments.
is a potential #2 ETF bullish or bearish for bitcoin?
https://x.com/ericbalchunas/status/1801725292404261308?s=46
> UPDATE: we are moving up our over/under date for the launch of spot <#2> ETF to July 2nd, hearing the Staff sent issuers comments on S-1s today, and they're pretty light, nothing major, asking for them back in a week. Decent chance they work to declare them effective the next week and get it off their plate bf holiday wknd. Anything poss but this is our best guess as of now.
i’m torn because i consider #2 a shitcoin (fitting) but another ETF approval adds further legitimacy to the entire space. if anyone is hesitant on bitcoin, then the more we can get folks into “crypto” the more likely they are to realize the benefits of bitcoin and will inch closer to maxi-dom.
price-wise, i think it’s definitely bullish because it’ll draw more money into the space and is another positive piece of news to make sellers slightly more hesitant
>i’m torn because i consider #2 a shitcoin (fitting) but another ETF approval adds further legitimacy to the entire space. if anyone is hesitant on bitcoin, then the more we can get folks into “crypto” the more likely they are to realize the benefits of bitcoin and will inch closer to maxi-dom.
Long term holder of both coins checking in. Can we please put this shitcoin talk about # 2 to rest? Look at the data and the numbers around coin #2, it is *ridiculous*. TVL, transactions, volume, apps, layer 2s, etc. No other altcoin comes remotely close to that level of usage and activity. Actual shitcoins couldn't be more different from # 2.
This is not a zero sum game. I don't undersand why it is so hard for people to accept that maybe, *just maybe*, there can be at least *one* other major asset in this space that is different. I don't see BTC and # 2 as direct competitors at all. They are apples and oranges and serve totally different purposes. Not to mention completely different tokenomic designs.
Regardless if we compare them or not, what is good for one is good for another. ETF inflows to # 2 simply bring new money into the space. That's always a good thing because some of this money eventually finds its way back to Bitcoin, especially during bear markets (when a flight to safety happens).
It's a shitcoin. It exists to give other shitcoins a platform. It's Centralized, Captured garbage. Which is why, 2 weeks from the launch of an ETH ETF, the market doesn't care, when BTC ran for months before its launch.
Also, it's literally a zero sum game when money is finite.
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>[it's not a shitcoin, simple as that](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/1d4r8ca/comment/l6odeia/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
This you? Lmao
I’m with this guy. There is room for both a dominant store of value and a dominant fractionalized decentralized computation network. Nobody (reasonable) is saying they’re trying to be the same thing. And a rising tide lifts all ships.
personally i think there are a couple of other coins that i wouldn't classify as shitcoins. those that have good use cases, cool technology, **and** fair distribution. #2 is not one of them and never will be due to how it began. #2 can brush its teeth all it wants but everyone will always remember how it ate that shit sandwich
83% was sold in a crowd sale. *Anyone could’ve bought it. Even then, the amount sold in the crowd sale became heavily diluted from the mining afterwards.
No launch is perfect. And I’d love to hear your idea of other coins that tick all three of those criteria, because there isn’t any.
At this point in the market with the money drying up, it is not a good news for Bitcoin as right now is more of a zero-sum situation between Bitcoin and ETH. It would be a good news in a raging bull market where money is being thrown around left and right. So basically, the ratio would increase and you might see at least 10% of BTC ETF being moved to ETH ETF.
Neutral at best. Any dollar flowing into an eth ETF is a dollar not flowing into a BTC ETF. And I don't think it's a big enough catalyst to draw a ton of capital to the space, the legitimacy you are talking about came with the BTC ETF imo.
I think with every non-bitcoin crypto ETF that gets approved moving forward (#2, #3, #4, etc etc) you're no longer adding legitimacy to the crypto space, instead you're subtracting from the legitimacy of the SEC and ETFs in general. Each one that may get approved makes a more and more of a joke of a once legit space (ETFs) more and more. The further you go down the line from #2, the more it becomes stupid as fuck. I wouldn't be surprised to see it, because money, but imagine if the top 20 all had ETFs. Clown world. We might be heading towards it, too.
Those smaller coins down the list are not getting ETFs any time soon, if ever. I just don't think there's enough demand, and there is way too much legal uncertainty surrounding them. Hell, many of them have already been labeled as securities.
I had the same sentiment about super shit coins getting listed onto "professional" exchanges back in 2017. Look where we are now. Shitcoins galore on every exchange. If there's any money to be made, brokers will pounce. I'm not saying cumrocket or other such bullshit gets listed, but I think there will be more than we expect get listed.
Except, once you go down below ETH, a lot of the big names just won't apply for its ETF. One of the big reasons why ARK decided to pull back their ETH ETF is that it just didn't deem ETH ETF profitable. The low rate just wasn't worth competing against other issuers and they declined. The drop from ETH and the next coin would be even more dramatic and the likes of Blackrock will not want to be involved in LTC ETF, ADA ETF, etc. even if it was deemed legal.
While I do think we could see more ETFs, the volume on a lot of these other coins won't justify an ETF. And I think that's what BlackRock and others will be looking at as they want to make money on fees ultimately. Like if you go down the list, #10 has only $15M average volume per day which is a small fraction of what even ETH does.
So I don't think an ETF for the top 20 is all that likely, maybe a few more ETFs at best...
It's already been effectively approved, they wouldn't be moving forward with S-1 applications if the rug was going to be pulled.
So it's basically priced in at this point, however, general sentiment seems to be that inflows will not match up to the BTC ETF. I don't know about that. Seems people in general were wrong on the inflows for BTC (turned out to be MUCH better than expectations), the same could end up being true for ETH ETF too.
Don't think good inflows would be bearish for BTC, in terms of USD price. Ratio could take a hit, but good for market overall. Very low inflows on ETH would likely be bearish overall while bullish on ratio. That's just my take on it.
I don't think ETH is going to flip BTC ever, but if inflows are good, it's possible it ignites a lot more buying activity in the space.
Looks like the local low is at $65k.
Last time BTC was at $65k was May 16th. BTC proceeded to rally to the local high of $71.9k on May 21st, 5 days later.
Similar >10% run within a few days incoming? We’ll see.
I’m still accumulating as long as we are under $70k. Almost reached my goal stack for the bear market. 99% of the way there, just need maybe 6 more weeks of DCA.
Of course, once I get there, my brain will try to shift the goal posts to next milestone. But I definitely feel like this summer might be the last time to load up before the real run starts in the fall.
In that case continuing to DCA below $140k would grant you 12 weeks to reach the goal.
You might not get 6 more weeks below $70k so might want to mentally prepare for failing to reach the goal or increasing the price at which you’re willing to accumulate more, whichever matters more to you.
👆Look at this man with “excess savings” four hundred years into the bear market . . .
My dude there is no “excess savings” left. That got thrown in when that stablecoin I can’t even remember the name of imploded, then when FTX fell, then finished off during the infinite “why are we stuck at $25k forever” time period - was that last fall? Last summer? It’s been 84 years …
All we got left is the daily fiat mines. Excess savings is already in. Running on fumes over here. If you’ve got “excess savings” throw them in today. Or throw some my way.
Bingo. Buying above previous cycle’s peak can be challenging mentally but fast forwarding a few years later and realizing you’ll never get the opportunity to buy at that level again is worse.
There’s definitely some OG’s who were here during 2013 and who refused to buy above $1k when 2017 came around only to learn this lesson.
Reading my T*e*A leaves here: this should bounce now or at least not go any deeper.
[1d, 4h and 1h chart](https://imgur.com/a/5xBYTM9)
Edit to clarify: ... in the nearer term, i.e. next hours to days if not weeks as we have a meaningful line of support. We could still eventually visit the lower range again and that 1d chart would still look ok'ish.
Over the last two years, the average price of bitcoin has been around 30k.
We’re over 60k and just under the ATH.
Alts, including eth, are dropping vs bitcoin.
Real estate is dropping against bitcoin.
Oil contracts are no longer required to settle in USD.
Nobody wants fiat. Dollars are only doing well against other currencies, which are horrible.
The price changes you are seeing are all noise. The FUD is here to keep you poor. The commentary is all manipulation.
My only USD is in my checking account just because I have to use that for some of my monthly bills and my salary is directly deposited into that account. All savings are invested with the majority in Bitcoin.
Daily chart is looking horribly like a wyckoff distribution. That aligns with fundamental analysis….whales have been unwinding large positions (GBTC) over the last few weeks whilst retail have been absorbing those coins.
These big players wouldn’t be selling and triggering a tax bill unless they envisage being able to buy back at a significantly lower price. Let’s hope they’re wrong
The number of whales is dramatically increasing, not decreasing.
GBTC has the highest fees. Therefore, we expect outflows from GBTC. Inflows to GBTC are and should be rare. Also, GBTC is a small portion of the global market by volume.
This is all just noise.
If they've been unwinding GBTC, it's not a given that those sales are taxable events. Could be held in an IRA. And there's no way to know if it's whales or retail selling if that's the case. And if you think whales are selling gbt, then who is buying IBit? We have 13Fs showing that whales were buying in q1.
Re the wykcoff meme: 70k certainly feels like 60k did back in April 2021, but I don't think we're going to plummet like we did then. We're just crabbing. People just get bearish at the range low and bullish at the range high. Probably more etf outflows today but we've already seen in the data that ETFs are buying tops/selling bottom
We probably won't see any sustained upward movement until High Priest Jerome Powell officially starts lowering rates and DXY subsequently goes down. Maybe the Fed meeting in mid-September.
The dollar, relative to other world currencies, is just incredibly strong right now. The thing to do now is visit Europe, Japan, South America, whatever, and flash greenbacks in their faces. In the 1990s, I went to Canada and one of my clearest memories was giving a guy at an arcade $1 USD and receiving five Canadian quarters as change. 🤑
Higher low at $65.1k broken.
10% drop from the local high at $71.9k would be $64.7k. 15% drop would be $61.1k. 20% drop would be $57.5k.
Remaining higher lows acting as resistance below here are at $64.6k, $61.3k, $61.1k, $60.7k, $60.6k, $60.4k, $60.2k, and $58.8k before a 20% drop becomes possible.
Might see a 10%-15% drop but $60k is going to be hard to crack with the built up supports around there.
These imaginary supports as some have alluded to is really just mental masturbation and nothing but numbers.
In a roaring bull market, it will easily surpass all these. in a bear market, it could slice through all. in a choppy BS market (like we have had since February), we could visit, re-visit and go above/below them multiple times.
therefore, meaningless.
How many times do we have to see BTC slice through "support" like paper before people realize their "supports" are arbitrary? Honey badger does not give a fuck.
These 100 support levels are just arbitrary numbers of candle closes, they are totally irrelevant… shift it by 5 minutes and everything changes: look at the big picture, zoom out.
Oh ok, got it. Wouldn’t make much of a difference moving the time zone though; the same daily low would usually just end up falling on a different day.
But currency does matter. Until yesterday BTC only made a lower low in USD, not in EUR. I'm not sure what to make of that. But seeing todays price action might confirm that USD price action is leading.
Market is getting weaker. No problem in breaking 60k if it gets there imo. Besides btc, this might have been the weakest bull market I’ve been part of. Anyway still holding on to my prediction of next moon party in october/november but I dont believe we’ll see crazy numbers.
I've been saying all along this is probably not the "real" bull run. We pumped in summer 2019, a year too early and it got almost completely reversed. Then it happens in 2024 and people seem to not remember. Sure the causes are totally different but my point is it happens.
You should probably stop including the "x price probably won't be reached" part, because this is crypto and we all know that ANY price is possible within any time frame
Could still occur after June 18th but the probability decreases the further away we get from that date because the handle starts losing symmetry and begins to get warped, no longer as clear of a formation.
But June 18th is actually quickly approaching. Just not in the direction that u/dopeboyrico promised... also its looks like the cup & handle / inverse H&S is failing if 65 doesn't hold
market pretty much hinted to us what was going down the past few days. we had great CPI/PPI and both times the market wouldn't budge resistance to the upside and instead faded both reports.
then we crabbed along in the 66/67's for awhile and now that we are dumping we are finally getting some movement
BTC kept fading good news and it was inevitable... we had every reason to break the range after re-testing the upside for the 5th time in a row but failed
I see that the current bull flag has that range. But...
I'm seeing another possible reverse H&S. Looking at the liquidation levels and when you look at the previous channel, which BTC bounced off of before, I think worst case is 62k. If this is another RH&S then the target would be about 88k
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/2TdupNyC/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/2TdupNyC/)
Weekly Zoomed in [https://www.tradingview.com/x/CWg9FxwU/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/CWg9FxwU/)
Let's take those Bernstein predictions ($200K in 2025, $1M in 2033) and see what they look like on some charts:
[https://imgur.com/a/lXNMz7t](https://imgur.com/a/lXNMz7t)
Chart 1 is price after halvening, normalized to Apr 2024 prices. Go out 365 days, which puts us in the middle of 2025, and $200K is modest.
Chart 2 is price after cycle tops, normalized to Nov 2021 prices. Go out 365 days and $200K is a bit aggressive, but not outrageously so.
Chart 3 uses my totally made-up rule that BTC price will remain between 2.5x and 7x the price 4 years earlier. Only the first half of 2025 is shown here, but $200K is comfortably in the middle.
Now let's talk about 2033. u/dopeboyrico points out that you can get to $1M by 2033 with a 35% compounded growth rate for the next 9 years. Is that possible? Chart 4 is 4-year compounded growth rate and 4-year median.
The four years from fall 2017 to fall 2021 had a median CGR that went between 95% and 125%. Then came the first reset, and the median CGR has been between 35% and 50% for the past two years. Which is more likely, that the CGR stays around the lower level of the past two years for the next nine years, or that we're two years or so away from another reset that makes 35% a fond memory? I have no idea. Ask me in two years.
[Markets fear the French far right could trigger a financial crisis](https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/14/investing/france-financial-crisis-elections/index.html)
This is what bitcoin was made for. It should be thriving in this uncertain economical environment
> but no party is ever far left.
That's because just about every left party across the globe morphed towards centre-right.
They all do the sensationalist hateporn thing, it brings in votes.
So laughably tone deaf. Politicians can do huge things on a macro level. All of our inflation is, likely, due to what politicians did on a macro level during COVID.
>All of our inflation is, likely, due to what politicians did on a macro level during COVID.
Sure, has nothing to do with companies price fixing and price gouging and earning record profits. You sound foolish.
Yes.. companies conveniently and coincidentally decided to price gouge immediately following trillions of money being printed and handed out (COVID stimulus), but the two facts are completely and totally unrelated. Keep crushing with the sage economic wisdom, king 👑
I agree with you there. But politicians did not create covid.
It is covid that caused macro economic events, not a specific government. Left or right, it was the same everywhere.
Not sure what you’re saying, and your agreement isn’t needed - I am just stating reality. Government response to COVID created inflation we are currently to seeing. Biden massive stimulus ostensibly has also been holding the economy up. You stated eiple overstate politicians effects on the macro economy - that is an insane take. That’s it for my engagement in this strangely simplistic made difficult conversation.
Yes. There it is: BIDEN. USA.
THE WHOLE DEVELOPED WORLD did the same thing, get oht of yohr ivory tower, its not biden, its not macron, its just… macro-economics…
Yes. People do not leave their respective countries and the global economy is nonexistent, rather there is a collection of insular economies who are shielded from each other totally.
I'm out of this but all I can say is you guys labeled me a LARPer so whatever. The crash in September will be epic and I'll be on the sidelines waiting to buy again at 18k.
I just can't really get the price to match up from CashBackForex to the price of IBIT and it appears the trades I did make didn't sell short/cover at the same price point. And I can't get it to take a screen shot with enough detail without revealing my Fidelity account number on my phone where I placed the trade. And I don't want people hacking my Fidelity account.
If we are still languishing below the 2017 cycle top 2 halvings later at the end of 2024 when the bull run is "supposed" to be starting then I will eat a hat.
Some Friday Hopium:
[https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bitcoin-could-hit-1m-within-10-years-bernstein-says-as-it-initiates-coverage-of-microstrategy/ar-BB1odxB9](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bitcoin-could-hit-1m-within-10-years-bernstein-says-as-it-initiates-coverage-of-microstrategy/ar-BB1odxB9)
* The bitcoin price could hit $1 million by 2033 and is likely to reach a $200,000 cycle-high by 2025.
* MicroStrategy initiated as outperform with a $2,890 price target at Bernstein.
* The software company's long-term convertible debt strategy means it has time to benefit from bitcoin upside with limited liquidation risk to the crypto on its balance sheet, the report said.
I lol'd. You age so much faster when you're in this space and follow price - it pumps/dumps and I'm as emotionally stable as my baby girls. It crabs and I feel like a bitter, senile senior.
Edit: cry baby it is then.
$1 million by 2033 would be an annualized rate of return of 35%/year from here.
BittyBot has me on the record calling for $1 million by end of 2027 before the next halving in 2028 even occurs.
People are generally bullish, I just don’t think anyone is bullish enough.
Wouldn’t call it a “struggle” at all. Just building foundation before the next leg up.
In 2021 BTC spent a total of 45 days at or above $60k.
So far this year BTC has spent 106 days at or above $60k. The year isn’t even halfway over yet.
Price is chilling at this >$60k level right now. In 2021 price was struggling to stay at or above this level. Additionally, we already hit a new ATH and that was BEFORE the halving for the first time ever.
It’s already pretty clear that the spot ETF’s have helped to propel the price above a certain floor. Next step is eating away at BTC being sold into the market until sellers get exhausted, then we make the next move up.
I'm a bit confused by the bearish sentiment in here. I thought we agreed it takes anywhere from 3-6 months for the halvening to really impact bitcoin's price. The halvening was less than 2 months ago. Take a deep breath, turn off the phone, and check the price in September.
This price area is frustrating having lived through the disappointment of the previous cycle.
Not everyone agrees price will go up from here. Some people believe price will mostly fall from here. You mostly hear from them when there is some downward momentum in the market. They don’t complain or say much when price is going significantly higher.
There is another group of people that mostly discuss short term price action. Day traders and swing traders won’t be as focused on what the price will be six months from now.
Support seems to have been found at 66.7, which is also the 100d SMA.
RSI, on the hourly, is at 50.6 (average 45.5) at time of writing. Nearby resistance are 67.4, 69, 70.3, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 66.7, 65.7, 64.5, 63, 61.7, 61.3, 60.5, 59, 57.5, 56.7, 55.7 and 54.5.
On the daily, the RSI is 46.4 and its average is currently at 54.9. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. The 50- and 100-day SMA acted as support (66003/66764).
BTC closed green last week. BTC’s RSI is currently 64.5 (72.6 average). It has been in flag formation for 3 months. BTC is below the upper resistance for the 6th time. Looking for a close above it on the weekly for confirmation. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 105.3k. Main resistances were noted above. u/dopeboyrico’s cup and handle are looking very pronounced and ready to give us a surge to 122.6k.
Bitcoin closed May out in the green with it’s monthly RSI at 69.3. Current RSI 68.7
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/YpHfhEvl/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/YpHfhEvl/)
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/M7COEqZP/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/M7COEqZP/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/hx5n9Q0J/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/hx5n9Q0J/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/qcVQStS6/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/qcVQStS6/)
Saudi Arabia terminated their agreement this past Sunday to only take USD for oil. They can now take any form of payment they choose. Imagine the price action if they announce they will take btc for oil. It would be the mother of all holy shit moments.
Downvote all you want, you WANT this thing to happen, which is different from it actually happening.
Why in fucks name would they use btc for oil and why the fuck would other nations agree? Answer: they wont.
MSTR upped their convertible note offering to $700 million with the possibility of another $100 million.
[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microstrategy-announces-pricing-offering-convertible-120000088.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microstrategy-announces-pricing-offering-convertible-120000088.html)
*MicroStrategy\*\***^(®)* *Incorporated (Nasdaq: MSTR) ("MicroStrategy") today announced the pricing of its offering of $700 million aggregate principal amount of 2.25% convertible senior notes due 2032 (the "notes").*
*MicroStrategy also granted to the initial purchasers of the notes an option to purchase, within a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the date on which the notes are first issued, up to an additional $100 million aggregate principal amount of the notes.*
That's a buyer of 10,000-12,000 BTC hitting the market in the next week - maybe even over the weekend. Saylor doesn't ever seem to structure his buys to minimize market impact. I think he like the shock and awe of making the market move on his big buys.
Mstr has a shit ton of debt - are they able to finance that debt with their cash flows or is the sale of their stash at some point in the future inevitable? I suppose I can look this up myself but I'm feeling pretty lazy on this Friday, curious if anyone knows off the top of their head.
Don't know the answer legally but -- Way down deep in the press release is this note:
*"MicroStrategy intends to use the net proceeds from the sale of the notes to acquire additional bitcoin and for general corporate purposes".*
Does not sound like debt service but who knows what "general corporate purposes" means.
Yesterday MSTR announced they would be raising another $500 million.
[It looks like they have increased it to $700 million instead.](https://www.microstrategy.com/press/microstrategy-announces-pricing-of-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes_06-14-2024)
How do we guesstimate *when* this money would be raised (and thus when MSTR will make a half billion dollar purchase)? If the note issuance was just announced, how long do investors have to purchase these notes? A day, week, month?
[Last time they announced pricing of offering of Convertible Senior Notes](https://x.com/saylor/status/1768608774900633983?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) was on March 15th which was also a Friday.
On March 19th, the following Tuesday they announced both the [cash had been raised](https://x.com/saylor/status/1770058304519024797?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) and the [additional BTC had been purchased](https://x.com/saylor/status/1770061111146033385?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw).
So sometime in the next few days most likely.
Great job, thank you. Although the article does say the agreement doesn't explicitly mention oil or dollar recycling. But, it did say in the article it was implicit.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, June 15, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1dg9cu9/daily_discussion_saturday_june_15_2024/)
U
What is he talking about here? Don’t futures contract all have to settle in spot anyway? Why would a contract to buy/sell a certain number of BTC at a predetermined date be paper BTC? https://x.com/woonomic/status/1801727009602646427?s=46
He’s been comically wrong over and over again. Idk why people listen to this rando
Some hopium for yalls for a happy weekend (Blackrock is very bullish): https://x.com/ap_abacus/status/1801614655988621534?s=61
Is there a real source for these quotes or is it just some random dude on twitter?
Clicking the @BlackRock link in the linked post from X just takes you to the Black Rock X feed. A quick scroll showed none of the listed quotes so they may just come from the comments to the BR posts. I guess you’d need to code a simple bot to actually answer your question or waste a lot of time reading the comments.
is a potential #2 ETF bullish or bearish for bitcoin? https://x.com/ericbalchunas/status/1801725292404261308?s=46 > UPDATE: we are moving up our over/under date for the launch of spot <#2> ETF to July 2nd, hearing the Staff sent issuers comments on S-1s today, and they're pretty light, nothing major, asking for them back in a week. Decent chance they work to declare them effective the next week and get it off their plate bf holiday wknd. Anything poss but this is our best guess as of now. i’m torn because i consider #2 a shitcoin (fitting) but another ETF approval adds further legitimacy to the entire space. if anyone is hesitant on bitcoin, then the more we can get folks into “crypto” the more likely they are to realize the benefits of bitcoin and will inch closer to maxi-dom. price-wise, i think it’s definitely bullish because it’ll draw more money into the space and is another positive piece of news to make sellers slightly more hesitant
>i’m torn because i consider #2 a shitcoin (fitting) but another ETF approval adds further legitimacy to the entire space. if anyone is hesitant on bitcoin, then the more we can get folks into “crypto” the more likely they are to realize the benefits of bitcoin and will inch closer to maxi-dom. Long term holder of both coins checking in. Can we please put this shitcoin talk about # 2 to rest? Look at the data and the numbers around coin #2, it is *ridiculous*. TVL, transactions, volume, apps, layer 2s, etc. No other altcoin comes remotely close to that level of usage and activity. Actual shitcoins couldn't be more different from # 2. This is not a zero sum game. I don't undersand why it is so hard for people to accept that maybe, *just maybe*, there can be at least *one* other major asset in this space that is different. I don't see BTC and # 2 as direct competitors at all. They are apples and oranges and serve totally different purposes. Not to mention completely different tokenomic designs. Regardless if we compare them or not, what is good for one is good for another. ETF inflows to # 2 simply bring new money into the space. That's always a good thing because some of this money eventually finds its way back to Bitcoin, especially during bear markets (when a flight to safety happens).
It's a shitcoin. It exists to give other shitcoins a platform. It's Centralized, Captured garbage. Which is why, 2 weeks from the launch of an ETH ETF, the market doesn't care, when BTC ran for months before its launch. Also, it's literally a zero sum game when money is finite.
I can't wait to come back to this. It'll age like milk, guaranteed. RemindMe! 6 months
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ETH is like a financial parasite to Bitcoin and a pre-mined piece of trash.
no
>[it's not a shitcoin, simple as that](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/1d4r8ca/comment/l6odeia/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) This you? Lmao
yeah, it's me > On the flipside BTC retains dominance for reasons that mystify me "it's not a shitcoin, simple as that" so what's your point?
Eth would be better running on databases.
I’m with this guy. There is room for both a dominant store of value and a dominant fractionalized decentralized computation network. Nobody (reasonable) is saying they’re trying to be the same thing. And a rising tide lifts all ships.
What happened to the ultra sound money narrative? Also, it sucks as a computation network. Something as ridiculous as CryptoKitties brought it down.
And yet here we are.
personally i think there are a couple of other coins that i wouldn't classify as shitcoins. those that have good use cases, cool technology, **and** fair distribution. #2 is not one of them and never will be due to how it began. #2 can brush its teeth all it wants but everyone will always remember how it ate that shit sandwich
83% was sold in a crowd sale. *Anyone could’ve bought it. Even then, the amount sold in the crowd sale became heavily diluted from the mining afterwards. No launch is perfect. And I’d love to hear your idea of other coins that tick all three of those criteria, because there isn’t any.
At this point in the market with the money drying up, it is not a good news for Bitcoin as right now is more of a zero-sum situation between Bitcoin and ETH. It would be a good news in a raging bull market where money is being thrown around left and right. So basically, the ratio would increase and you might see at least 10% of BTC ETF being moved to ETH ETF.
Neutral at best. Any dollar flowing into an eth ETF is a dollar not flowing into a BTC ETF. And I don't think it's a big enough catalyst to draw a ton of capital to the space, the legitimacy you are talking about came with the BTC ETF imo.
I think with every non-bitcoin crypto ETF that gets approved moving forward (#2, #3, #4, etc etc) you're no longer adding legitimacy to the crypto space, instead you're subtracting from the legitimacy of the SEC and ETFs in general. Each one that may get approved makes a more and more of a joke of a once legit space (ETFs) more and more. The further you go down the line from #2, the more it becomes stupid as fuck. I wouldn't be surprised to see it, because money, but imagine if the top 20 all had ETFs. Clown world. We might be heading towards it, too.
Those smaller coins down the list are not getting ETFs any time soon, if ever. I just don't think there's enough demand, and there is way too much legal uncertainty surrounding them. Hell, many of them have already been labeled as securities.
I had the same sentiment about super shit coins getting listed onto "professional" exchanges back in 2017. Look where we are now. Shitcoins galore on every exchange. If there's any money to be made, brokers will pounce. I'm not saying cumrocket or other such bullshit gets listed, but I think there will be more than we expect get listed.
Except, once you go down below ETH, a lot of the big names just won't apply for its ETF. One of the big reasons why ARK decided to pull back their ETH ETF is that it just didn't deem ETH ETF profitable. The low rate just wasn't worth competing against other issuers and they declined. The drop from ETH and the next coin would be even more dramatic and the likes of Blackrock will not want to be involved in LTC ETF, ADA ETF, etc. even if it was deemed legal.
While I do think we could see more ETFs, the volume on a lot of these other coins won't justify an ETF. And I think that's what BlackRock and others will be looking at as they want to make money on fees ultimately. Like if you go down the list, #10 has only $15M average volume per day which is a small fraction of what even ETH does. So I don't think an ETF for the top 20 is all that likely, maybe a few more ETFs at best...
It's already been effectively approved, they wouldn't be moving forward with S-1 applications if the rug was going to be pulled. So it's basically priced in at this point, however, general sentiment seems to be that inflows will not match up to the BTC ETF. I don't know about that. Seems people in general were wrong on the inflows for BTC (turned out to be MUCH better than expectations), the same could end up being true for ETH ETF too. Don't think good inflows would be bearish for BTC, in terms of USD price. Ratio could take a hit, but good for market overall. Very low inflows on ETH would likely be bearish overall while bullish on ratio. That's just my take on it. I don't think ETH is going to flip BTC ever, but if inflows are good, it's possible it ignites a lot more buying activity in the space.
I think the question is that there might be inflows from the Bitcoin ETF to the ETH ETF. That would hurt Bitcoin's price.
That was it folks. Only up from here.
Anyone know if /u/Antranik bought back in after selling half at 67500? Lots of opportunity since then...
38k looks good.
If we are going to dip I don't mind as long as it can dip back to 4k so I can buy more. Otherwise it's just watching paint dry
This guy was here in 2017
Salty. Ugly rected on shitcoins.
Looks like the local low is at $65k. Last time BTC was at $65k was May 16th. BTC proceeded to rally to the local high of $71.9k on May 21st, 5 days later. Similar >10% run within a few days incoming? We’ll see.
…with about $5K of that pump on a single daily (May 20th). That’s how that Corn likes to do it. =)
I’m still accumulating as long as we are under $70k. Almost reached my goal stack for the bear market. 99% of the way there, just need maybe 6 more weeks of DCA. Of course, once I get there, my brain will try to shift the goal posts to next milestone. But I definitely feel like this summer might be the last time to load up before the real run starts in the fall.
In that case continuing to DCA below $140k would grant you 12 weeks to reach the goal. You might not get 6 more weeks below $70k so might want to mentally prepare for failing to reach the goal or increasing the price at which you’re willing to accumulate more, whichever matters more to you.
Agreed. I fully expect to scrounge the sofa cushions when we hit about $75k to throw the rest in.
Or just put away excess savings regardless
👆Look at this man with “excess savings” four hundred years into the bear market . . . My dude there is no “excess savings” left. That got thrown in when that stablecoin I can’t even remember the name of imploded, then when FTX fell, then finished off during the infinite “why are we stuck at $25k forever” time period - was that last fall? Last summer? It’s been 84 years … All we got left is the daily fiat mines. Excess savings is already in. Running on fumes over here. If you’ve got “excess savings” throw them in today. Or throw some my way.
Bingo. Buying above previous cycle’s peak can be challenging mentally but fast forwarding a few years later and realizing you’ll never get the opportunity to buy at that level again is worse. There’s definitely some OG’s who were here during 2013 and who refused to buy above $1k when 2017 came around only to learn this lesson.
Reading my T*e*A leaves here: this should bounce now or at least not go any deeper. [1d, 4h and 1h chart](https://imgur.com/a/5xBYTM9) Edit to clarify: ... in the nearer term, i.e. next hours to days if not weeks as we have a meaningful line of support. We could still eventually visit the lower range again and that 1d chart would still look ok'ish.
Options expiry concluded. Price can recover.
Guys I sold my longs so bitcoin is gonna do good this weekend
Saylor Moon weekend
100k
Over the last two years, the average price of bitcoin has been around 30k. We’re over 60k and just under the ATH. Alts, including eth, are dropping vs bitcoin. Real estate is dropping against bitcoin. Oil contracts are no longer required to settle in USD. Nobody wants fiat. Dollars are only doing well against other currencies, which are horrible. The price changes you are seeing are all noise. The FUD is here to keep you poor. The commentary is all manipulation.
My only USD is in my checking account just because I have to use that for some of my monthly bills and my salary is directly deposited into that account. All savings are invested with the majority in Bitcoin.
> The commentary is all manipulation. But that includes your commentary... 🧐 😋
And yours…
"*Pack it up and grab your go-bags boys, we've been made...!*" 🏃🏼♂️💨
some alts have 8d rekt strike while btc has slight pullback election year they said, up only they said... looks like only for SPX
btc simply sneezed and alts are slowly dying . imagine what a proper btc correction would do to alts
Daily chart is looking horribly like a wyckoff distribution. That aligns with fundamental analysis….whales have been unwinding large positions (GBTC) over the last few weeks whilst retail have been absorbing those coins. These big players wouldn’t be selling and triggering a tax bill unless they envisage being able to buy back at a significantly lower price. Let’s hope they’re wrong
The number of whales is dramatically increasing, not decreasing. GBTC has the highest fees. Therefore, we expect outflows from GBTC. Inflows to GBTC are and should be rare. Also, GBTC is a small portion of the global market by volume. This is all just noise.
If they've been unwinding GBTC, it's not a given that those sales are taxable events. Could be held in an IRA. And there's no way to know if it's whales or retail selling if that's the case. And if you think whales are selling gbt, then who is buying IBit? We have 13Fs showing that whales were buying in q1. Re the wykcoff meme: 70k certainly feels like 60k did back in April 2021, but I don't think we're going to plummet like we did then. We're just crabbing. People just get bearish at the range low and bullish at the range high. Probably more etf outflows today but we've already seen in the data that ETFs are buying tops/selling bottom
Sources? GBTC could've been offset by people just changing to another ETF.
We probably won't see any sustained upward movement until High Priest Jerome Powell officially starts lowering rates and DXY subsequently goes down. Maybe the Fed meeting in mid-September. The dollar, relative to other world currencies, is just incredibly strong right now. The thing to do now is visit Europe, Japan, South America, whatever, and flash greenbacks in their faces. In the 1990s, I went to Canada and one of my clearest memories was giving a guy at an arcade $1 USD and receiving five Canadian quarters as change. 🤑
Fwiw, the $25-30k range last 7 months. It’s only been 3.5 months since it first entered the $60-70k range. Could be a whole summer of crab.
F*king Fridays
Friday? More like buy-day
Higher low at $65.1k broken. 10% drop from the local high at $71.9k would be $64.7k. 15% drop would be $61.1k. 20% drop would be $57.5k. Remaining higher lows acting as resistance below here are at $64.6k, $61.3k, $61.1k, $60.7k, $60.6k, $60.4k, $60.2k, and $58.8k before a 20% drop becomes possible. Might see a 10%-15% drop but $60k is going to be hard to crack with the built up supports around there.
What if we get the $10k green god candle today, what price would that take us to?
dude did you just ask him to do basic addition for you?
he’s just being a douche. he thinks that someone posting interesting information that doesn’t come true is an unforgivable insult
It was just a joke, I appreciate OP’s contributions to the sub. No need to be so dramatic
sorry man what’s done is done. the only suitable punishment is 100 lashes
These imaginary supports as some have alluded to is really just mental masturbation and nothing but numbers. In a roaring bull market, it will easily surpass all these. in a bear market, it could slice through all. in a choppy BS market (like we have had since February), we could visit, re-visit and go above/below them multiple times. therefore, meaningless.
How many times do we have to see BTC slice through "support" like paper before people realize their "supports" are arbitrary? Honey badger does not give a fuck.
These 100 support levels are just arbitrary numbers of candle closes, they are totally irrelevant… shift it by 5 minutes and everything changes: look at the big picture, zoom out.
They’re actually daily lows, not a particular candle timestamp.
Yes, daily utc, with a never-closed market.
Oh ok, got it. Wouldn’t make much of a difference moving the time zone though; the same daily low would usually just end up falling on a different day.
Yes. And that would make a difference… if i would post this on a green day i wijldnt get downvoted… fucking bullshit
But currency does matter. Until yesterday BTC only made a lower low in USD, not in EUR. I'm not sure what to make of that. But seeing todays price action might confirm that USD price action is leading.
Market is getting weaker. No problem in breaking 60k if it gets there imo. Besides btc, this might have been the weakest bull market I’ve been part of. Anyway still holding on to my prediction of next moon party in october/november but I dont believe we’ll see crazy numbers.
I've been saying all along this is probably not the "real" bull run. We pumped in summer 2019, a year too early and it got almost completely reversed. Then it happens in 2024 and people seem to not remember. Sure the causes are totally different but my point is it happens.
You should probably stop including the "x price probably won't be reached" part, because this is crypto and we all know that ANY price is possible within any time frame
Possible and probable are two different things.
[удалено]
Could still occur after June 18th but the probability decreases the further away we get from that date because the handle starts losing symmetry and begins to get warped, no longer as clear of a formation.
But June 18th is actually quickly approaching. Just not in the direction that u/dopeboyrico promised... also its looks like the cup & handle / inverse H&S is failing if 65 doesn't hold
When did Rico promise a direction?
[https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cogjlp/comment/l8a9j1y/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cogjlp/comment/l8a9j1y/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
No where in that comment do I see Rico promising a direction.
Nope, no "promises" were ever made. Just moonboy numerology and what/if's and what could be's. The only promise is death & taxes, amirite?
Haha yep, death and taxes. I always throw in “change” as the third promise but I guess that goes without saying.
I think we could go all the way down to 62 before thinking the IH&S would become invalid. See my comment to u/AverageUnited3237 below.
market pretty much hinted to us what was going down the past few days. we had great CPI/PPI and both times the market wouldn't budge resistance to the upside and instead faded both reports. then we crabbed along in the 66/67's for awhile and now that we are dumping we are finally getting some movement BTC kept fading good news and it was inevitable... we had every reason to break the range after re-testing the upside for the 5th time in a row but failed
The problem is the dollar is strengthening, that screws btc. Look at a dxy vs btc chart. Generally inverse trends.
BTD. I just did. Looks like no good reason for this big drop
Sept/Oct, peoples. Remember your box breathing.
Uptober
This looks like a nice place for a leverage long on a tight stop.
My bet on that bounce filled while I was taking an afternoon nap.
Guess "sell in May" was right
Ah well. Looks like everybody selling today. Time to go do some yardwork. Good luck everybody and grats to those that shorted 70k.
Looks like we're now headed back to the bottom of the range
What range are you talking about?
56-74k range. Bottom of the range for me is below 62k
I see that the current bull flag has that range. But... I'm seeing another possible reverse H&S. Looking at the liquidation levels and when you look at the previous channel, which BTC bounced off of before, I think worst case is 62k. If this is another RH&S then the target would be about 88k [https://www.tradingview.com/x/2TdupNyC/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/2TdupNyC/) Weekly Zoomed in [https://www.tradingview.com/x/CWg9FxwU/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/CWg9FxwU/)
All of your lines pass through a single point. You really belong here.
That annoying moment when you get a bitpay invoice and wonder how long it will take to get back to short term range top …
yesterday 2000 BTC [bitfinex longs](https://datamish.com/btcusd/14d) liquidated / exited. I wonder...
Let's take those Bernstein predictions ($200K in 2025, $1M in 2033) and see what they look like on some charts: [https://imgur.com/a/lXNMz7t](https://imgur.com/a/lXNMz7t) Chart 1 is price after halvening, normalized to Apr 2024 prices. Go out 365 days, which puts us in the middle of 2025, and $200K is modest. Chart 2 is price after cycle tops, normalized to Nov 2021 prices. Go out 365 days and $200K is a bit aggressive, but not outrageously so. Chart 3 uses my totally made-up rule that BTC price will remain between 2.5x and 7x the price 4 years earlier. Only the first half of 2025 is shown here, but $200K is comfortably in the middle. Now let's talk about 2033. u/dopeboyrico points out that you can get to $1M by 2033 with a 35% compounded growth rate for the next 9 years. Is that possible? Chart 4 is 4-year compounded growth rate and 4-year median. The four years from fall 2017 to fall 2021 had a median CGR that went between 95% and 125%. Then came the first reset, and the median CGR has been between 35% and 50% for the past two years. Which is more likely, that the CGR stays around the lower level of the past two years for the next nine years, or that we're two years or so away from another reset that makes 35% a fond memory? I have no idea. Ask me in two years.
Any chance you could also post price after cycle lows, normalized to November 2022 prices?
[Markets fear the French far right could trigger a financial crisis](https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/14/investing/france-financial-crisis-elections/index.html) This is what bitcoin was made for. It should be thriving in this uncertain economical environment
Funny how everyone keeps calling all the parties that won far right but no party is ever far left. It's all propaganda.
> but no party is ever far left. That's because just about every left party across the globe morphed towards centre-right. They all do the sensationalist hateporn thing, it brings in votes.
Financial markets are stupid. People overestimate what politicians can do on a macro level..
So laughably tone deaf. Politicians can do huge things on a macro level. All of our inflation is, likely, due to what politicians did on a macro level during COVID.
>All of our inflation is, likely, due to what politicians did on a macro level during COVID. Sure, has nothing to do with companies price fixing and price gouging and earning record profits. You sound foolish.
Yes.. companies conveniently and coincidentally decided to price gouge immediately following trillions of money being printed and handed out (COVID stimulus), but the two facts are completely and totally unrelated. Keep crushing with the sage economic wisdom, king 👑
The central bankers are NOT politicians…
Central bankers did not create the COVID stimulus program - government did. Edit: lol @ the downvotes. Cream of the economic crop
I agree with you there. But politicians did not create covid. It is covid that caused macro economic events, not a specific government. Left or right, it was the same everywhere.
Not sure what you’re saying, and your agreement isn’t needed - I am just stating reality. Government response to COVID created inflation we are currently to seeing. Biden massive stimulus ostensibly has also been holding the economy up. You stated eiple overstate politicians effects on the macro economy - that is an insane take. That’s it for my engagement in this strangely simplistic made difficult conversation.
Yes. There it is: BIDEN. USA. THE WHOLE DEVELOPED WORLD did the same thing, get oht of yohr ivory tower, its not biden, its not macron, its just… macro-economics…
Yes. People do not leave their respective countries and the global economy is nonexistent, rather there is a collection of insular economies who are shielded from each other totally.
I'm out of this but all I can say is you guys labeled me a LARPer so whatever. The crash in September will be epic and I'll be on the sidelines waiting to buy again at 18k.
> you guys labeled me Man that earned a downvote quickly.
lol...$18k! Lol 😂
Maybe because you *are* a LARPer? What did you expect from posting about a bunch of fake trades? 🤷🏻♀️
I just can't really get the price to match up from CashBackForex to the price of IBIT and it appears the trades I did make didn't sell short/cover at the same price point. And I can't get it to take a screen shot with enough detail without revealing my Fidelity account number on my phone where I placed the trade. And I don't want people hacking my Fidelity account.
lol hahahaha
Oh please… stop the larp… you are doubling down.
It’s okay. As you said, you’re out of this, and I can’t imagine you’ll be missed. See you when come back to troll in September.
That’s low If it goes down that low this time it’s over to be honest so your 18k purchases will be wiped too.
If we are still languishing below the 2017 cycle top 2 halvings later at the end of 2024 when the bull run is "supposed" to be starting then I will eat a hat.
BittyBot, you heard the little lady. Register her prediction! code: if then {*permaban*}
Oh come on man…
Some Friday Hopium: [https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bitcoin-could-hit-1m-within-10-years-bernstein-says-as-it-initiates-coverage-of-microstrategy/ar-BB1odxB9](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bitcoin-could-hit-1m-within-10-years-bernstein-says-as-it-initiates-coverage-of-microstrategy/ar-BB1odxB9) * The bitcoin price could hit $1 million by 2033 and is likely to reach a $200,000 cycle-high by 2025. * MicroStrategy initiated as outperform with a $2,890 price target at Bernstein. * The software company's long-term convertible debt strategy means it has time to benefit from bitcoin upside with limited liquidation risk to the crypto on its balance sheet, the report said.
There is no hope.
2033? aint nobody got time for that
This is why most people don’t make it.
I lol'd. You age so much faster when you're in this space and follow price - it pumps/dumps and I'm as emotionally stable as my baby girls. It crabs and I feel like a bitter, senile senior. Edit: cry baby it is then.
$1 million by 2033 would be an annualized rate of return of 35%/year from here. BittyBot has me on the record calling for $1 million by end of 2027 before the next halving in 2028 even occurs. People are generally bullish, I just don’t think anyone is bullish enough.
S curve adoption on a fixed supply asset is hard to comprehend
as we struggle in the same range as 2021
>same range as 2021 Average closing price for Bitcoin in 2021 was roughly $47.5k. So not quite.
Wouldn’t call it a “struggle” at all. Just building foundation before the next leg up. In 2021 BTC spent a total of 45 days at or above $60k. So far this year BTC has spent 106 days at or above $60k. The year isn’t even halfway over yet.
3 years on and we have the promised ETF, yet price is the same. Explain that …. ?
Price is chilling at this >$60k level right now. In 2021 price was struggling to stay at or above this level. Additionally, we already hit a new ATH and that was BEFORE the halving for the first time ever. It’s already pretty clear that the spot ETF’s have helped to propel the price above a certain floor. Next step is eating away at BTC being sold into the market until sellers get exhausted, then we make the next move up.
good point
I'm a bit confused by the bearish sentiment in here. I thought we agreed it takes anywhere from 3-6 months for the halvening to really impact bitcoin's price. The halvening was less than 2 months ago. Take a deep breath, turn off the phone, and check the price in September.
There's still many battered bears deep down. Give it time. This sub will flip to bullish moonboys in an instant.
I will flip like a cheap burger as soon as we have some positive PA.
This price area is frustrating having lived through the disappointment of the previous cycle. Not everyone agrees price will go up from here. Some people believe price will mostly fall from here. You mostly hear from them when there is some downward momentum in the market. They don’t complain or say much when price is going significantly higher. There is another group of people that mostly discuss short term price action. Day traders and swing traders won’t be as focused on what the price will be six months from now.
Yeah but, Goblins gonna goblin. Everytime.
There are a few pretty emotional guys in here who are using this daily as a therapy session.
you watch your language mister -you talkin' bout my home yo
Support seems to have been found at 66.7, which is also the 100d SMA. RSI, on the hourly, is at 50.6 (average 45.5) at time of writing. Nearby resistance are 67.4, 69, 70.3, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 66.7, 65.7, 64.5, 63, 61.7, 61.3, 60.5, 59, 57.5, 56.7, 55.7 and 54.5. On the daily, the RSI is 46.4 and its average is currently at 54.9. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. The 50- and 100-day SMA acted as support (66003/66764). BTC closed green last week. BTC’s RSI is currently 64.5 (72.6 average). It has been in flag formation for 3 months. BTC is below the upper resistance for the 6th time. Looking for a close above it on the weekly for confirmation. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 105.3k. Main resistances were noted above. u/dopeboyrico’s cup and handle are looking very pronounced and ready to give us a surge to 122.6k. Bitcoin closed May out in the green with it’s monthly RSI at 69.3. Current RSI 68.7 Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/YpHfhEvl/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/YpHfhEvl/) Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/M7COEqZP/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/M7COEqZP/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/hx5n9Q0J/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/hx5n9Q0J/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/qcVQStS6/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/qcVQStS6/)
😭
Annnnnd it's gone!
Saudi Arabia terminated their agreement this past Sunday to only take USD for oil. They can now take any form of payment they choose. Imagine the price action if they announce they will take btc for oil. It would be the mother of all holy shit moments.
Keep LARPing
Downvote all you want, you WANT this thing to happen, which is different from it actually happening. Why in fucks name would they use btc for oil and why the fuck would other nations agree? Answer: they wont.
Crazier things have happened. Just look at El Salvador
> El Salvador Irrelevant. The only thing which happened there was a the new oligarchy executing an Affinity Scam to buy some support overseas.
They sold real oil for monopoly money until now... talking about crazy things.
Ah yes a totally irrelvant country being shady… totally the same thing is the opec switching to btc, just stop…
MSTR upped their convertible note offering to $700 million with the possibility of another $100 million. [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microstrategy-announces-pricing-offering-convertible-120000088.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microstrategy-announces-pricing-offering-convertible-120000088.html) *MicroStrategy\*\***^(®)* *Incorporated (Nasdaq: MSTR) ("MicroStrategy") today announced the pricing of its offering of $700 million aggregate principal amount of 2.25% convertible senior notes due 2032 (the "notes").* *MicroStrategy also granted to the initial purchasers of the notes an option to purchase, within a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the date on which the notes are first issued, up to an additional $100 million aggregate principal amount of the notes.* That's a buyer of 10,000-12,000 BTC hitting the market in the next week - maybe even over the weekend. Saylor doesn't ever seem to structure his buys to minimize market impact. I think he like the shock and awe of making the market move on his big buys.
> 2032 This seems like forever away in bitcoin terms. I mean by the time this comes due, MSTR is gonna be in another realm one way or another.
There was a time when news like this would have moved the price significantly
Mstr has a shit ton of debt - are they able to finance that debt with their cash flows or is the sale of their stash at some point in the future inevitable? I suppose I can look this up myself but I'm feeling pretty lazy on this Friday, curious if anyone knows off the top of their head.
They just converted $625million in convertible debt to shares. This diluted the shares but cleared a lot of debt off the books.
Don't know the answer legally but -- Way down deep in the press release is this note: *"MicroStrategy intends to use the net proceeds from the sale of the notes to acquire additional bitcoin and for general corporate purposes".* Does not sound like debt service but who knows what "general corporate purposes" means.
Yesterday MSTR announced they would be raising another $500 million. [It looks like they have increased it to $700 million instead.](https://www.microstrategy.com/press/microstrategy-announces-pricing-of-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes_06-14-2024)
How do we guesstimate *when* this money would be raised (and thus when MSTR will make a half billion dollar purchase)? If the note issuance was just announced, how long do investors have to purchase these notes? A day, week, month?
I feel like in the past it's been around a week or so later that they've announced the BTC purchase, but I could be wrong.
[Last time they announced pricing of offering of Convertible Senior Notes](https://x.com/saylor/status/1768608774900633983?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) was on March 15th which was also a Friday. On March 19th, the following Tuesday they announced both the [cash had been raised](https://x.com/saylor/status/1770058304519024797?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) and the [additional BTC had been purchased](https://x.com/saylor/status/1770061111146033385?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw). So sometime in the next few days most likely.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/us-saudi-petrodollar-pact-ends-after-50-years
That's the thanks the US gets after GWB worked so hard to shield Saudi Arabia from its proper culpability for 9/11. Thanks everyone.
Sounds like someone needs a delivery of "FREEDOM"
I wasn't aware that it was an official agreement, more of a quid pro quo. In fact I doubt it was and would like to see the source of this claim.
https://www.nytimes.com/1974/06/09/archives/milestone-pact-is-signed-by-us-and-saudi-arabia-acclaimed-by.html
Great job, thank you. Although the article does say the agreement doesn't explicitly mention oil or dollar recycling. But, it did say in the article it was implicit.
Oh shit. That’s actually a big deal. One step closer to the death of dollar hegemony
Don’t understand how the world isn’t talking about this. Seems like a huge deal.
You can bet it’s bigly suppressed in US media.
Oil contracts settled in bitcoin are a matter of when, not if.