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The size and shape of the organisation is what determines how many senior commanders you have; if you kill a senior leader today you can do his replacement next week.
These are senior, not necessarily experienced, long-standing etc.
"One man carries the rank of senior commander, and the man behind him carries the rank of Assistant to the Senior commander. When the senior commander is killed then the man behind him will pick up the rank of senior commander!"
Senior now means 2 days on a job lol
Promotion process is basically: who wants a promotion step forward.... everyone steps back and slow Akbar gets promotion
I mean one thing you have to consider is movement probing. You can easily observe how you are being watched and send soldiers to move where in a place of a commander to see when they are actively air striking HVTs. So some of these might not even have HVTs they just leave out information for their enemy to act on.
Leaders, officers and commanders are the links that keep any organization coordinated or minimally cohesive. In addition, they are usually the ones with the most experience, connections and knowledge in the most complex tasks. A group of leaderless rookies and losers are like headless chickens: they will do stupid things that put them at risk and eventually be hunted more easily.
mate, that's simply not true, and there have been countless entire wars where the leader and soldiers actively worked to mitigate civilian harm.
Then there is this, where it was kicked off by one side killing kids and the other then flattening full apartment blocks.
Wars are fought for profit and personal gains. Mitigating civilian casualties doesn't mean you give a fuck about civilians, it just makes your task harder the more you kill. Every conflict there are war crimes and horrors being committed by both sides. This is the truth of war.
"There is nothing that war has ever achieved that we could not better achieve without it"
The only atribution I can find for that quote is to an individual named Henry Havelock Ellis, who was at one point the Vice President of the Eugenics Education Society. Wouldn’t be my choice for a moral authority. Perhaps you know better from where that quote originates?
Sure, and I’ll simplify things by keeping it to a US context (I can expand to include other militaries if you’d like). Let’s first remember that working to accomplish something and actually accomplishing something are two different things. I also find it necessary to stipulate that I believe evaluating the conduct of any military should be done by comparing the conduct of the military in question to its own precious conduct and the conduct of other peer militaries in similar situations.
Since WW2, but really more so since the Vietnam War Western militaries (mostly, but not exclusively Western NATO-aligned ones) have adopted Rules of Engagement (ROE) that prevent them (in theory at least) from shooting anything they feel like. The same militaries are also FAR more likely to prosecute soldiers who act criminally than (most of) their non-NATO counterparts. That isn’t to say Western Militaries don’t commit war crimes, Abu Ghraib absolutely occurred, but 17 US soldiers were disciplined for their role in the torture.
Compare that to how an army like Russia operates. The Russian military has a LONG standing practice of Dedovshchina which is basically an informal but widely practiced tradition of brutalizing new recruits using physical, sexual, and emotional violence. This leads to a military culture wherein the lives of Russian soldiers are given extremely little value. You can only imagine how they treat their enemies if they have no compassion for their own. The only examples of Russian soldiers being prosecuted by Russian authorities for crimes committed during war (that I can find) are punishments meted out for not following the strict rules about what you can and can’t post on social media.
So, going back to the US context, conflicts like the Invasion of Grenada, the invasion of Panama, Gulf War 1 and 2, and the fight against ISIS were fought under much different rules than we operated under previously. That isn’t to say the rules are perfect and prevent all civilian suffering, but it is to say there is at least a tangible policy driven attempt to operate with a greater appreciation for the safety of civilians. During WW2, bombing civilian targets with masses of bomber squadrons dropping unguided bomb with a less than 1% chance to hit their target was par for the course. In Vietnam, stricter rules of engagement were adopted. Many military men of that era believed the ROE to have been too strict and contributed to the American defeat (to be clear, I do not support this view). Here’s a link to a paper on the subject: [Link](https://media.defense.gov/2017/Dec/28/2001861735/-1/-1/0/T_DRAKE_RULES_OF_DEFEAT.PDF)
The ROE for subsequent military actions have (generally) been even more stringent than those imposed during the Vietnam War. It’s pretty difficult to drop any sort of ordnance now without first consulting a whole slew of lawyers. There are, obviously, still problems with this system, but empirical data demonstrates that our current tactics and ROE are far less destructive than those we previously operated under.
Here’s a good excerpt from Wikipedia demonstrating the effectiveness of strict ROE
“In 2011, the IBC (Iraq Body Count project) published data in PLOS Medicine on 2003-2008 civilian deaths in Iraq by perpetrator and cause of death. The study broke down civilian deaths by perpetrator into the following categories:
74% unidentified perpetrator: defined as "those who target civilians (i.e., no identifiable military target is present), while appearing indistinguishable from civilians: for example, a suicide bomber disguised as a civilian in a market. Unknown (i.e., unidentified) perpetrators in Iraq include sectarian combatants and Anti-Coalition combatants who maintain a civilian appearance while targeting civilians."
11% anti-coalition forces: defined as "un-uniformed combatants identified by attacks on coalition targets" during the event. Anti-Coalition combatants in the event of targeting purely civilians would instead be classed under the "unidentified perpetrator" category.
12% coalition forces: identified by uniforms or use of air attacks.”
So despite being the invading force, having the ability to fly bombing missions without impediment, and access to a wider and more powerful array of weaponry, coalition forces accounted for just over 10% of civilian casualties.
I don’t have enough context to definitively say that about this particular video, but I do think that Israel has generally done a poor job (I believe deliberately, I’m no fan of Netanyahu and his right wing cronies) of minimizing civilian casualties in this conflict. It seems, to me, that they’re generally ok with an unjustifiably high amount of collateral damage.
So I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m just saying I don’t know, but I completely understand the skepticism.
I agree, all we see is a random car.
But generally speaking: What about roof knocking, flyers, calling etc. to prevent casualties? Have we seen that in any conflict before? Why did they do a poor job or compared to what? What exactly could they have done better?
So which countless wars? Seems like you’re suggesting there have been countless wars involving the west with flawless roe after Vietnam til nowz
Did the roe help hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who died? Were the USA just firing at anyone when they drone bombed that wedding?
It’s kinda frustrating that you seem to have deliberately misinterpreted my argument.
“So which countless wars”
I named 4 that the US were involved in because I limited my post to the US context to try to shorten an already long post. You could also trace how, let’s say, European Armies have evolved from their rather brutal tactics used during the wars of colonial independence in the mid 20th century (Portugal, France, England to name just a few) to their modern ROE as part of NATO. You could use the intervention in Bosnia (1995), the similar action in Kosovo (1999), Operation Ocean Shield (2009), and other actions to evaluate how the more modern ROE influenced the action.
“Seems like you’re suggesting there have been countless wars involving the west with flawless roe until nowz”
I actually didn’t make that argument, at all. Cite in my post where I said any action taken by the west has been “flawless” or even insinuated anything remotely close to “flawless”. I actually went out of my way to say the opposite, that despite the intentions, military actions involving the West absolutely come with civilian casualties.
What I am arguing, however, is if you actually examine the development of ROE through the history of armed conflict involving Western militaries, you’ll see a trend of increasing concern to minimize the civilian casualties. That argument does not imply perfection or flawlessness in any way. It doesn’t legitimate the conflicts either, you can plausibly argue every casualty suffered by Iraqi civilians as a result of our unjustified invasion is evidence of our brutality. What I implore you to do, however, is measure the effects of our ROE compared to those employed by other militaries with less strict rules.
Working in cyber security, I can't help but wonder how bad these commanders OPSEC is (or how good Israel's intelligence REALLY is).
These guys drop like flies, which really makes you question the capability of their leadership. I guess it's anyone who'll take the job these days...
Side effects of this position may include death from above in the form of hellfire missile
IDF intel basically owns Lebanese cyberspace and Hezbollah and Hamas try to mitigate this by minizing their EW signature. So the IDF heavily relies on HUMINT as well. Little anecdote on IDF EW capabilities; when I was deployed in south Lebanon I would receive unsolicited messages on my Lebanese phone from the IDF advising me to leave the area I was in due to imminent IDF "operational activities" aka blowing up shit.
Geolocation via cell towers is dope. IMSI triangulation works if you know the device of the guy you're hunting though.
If the likes of Hezbollah/ Hamas haven't learnt this lesson by now, they better prep more coffins.
Although, the point you made does raise some interesting questions about Oct 7th I'd been discussing in my intel circles. "Own Lebanese / Palestinian cyberspace, yet still get dropped on..."
From my understanding the attack plan was already known for some time, however the exact date was kept a secret and spread lastminute by word of mouth. It does raise the question if there was political incentive to just let it happen as a casus belli.
That's the angle for sure, further propelled by their unwavering momentum and desire to take it all the way, But given the sheer scale, it's just too unbelievable to have such a large, rapid force mobile only via word of mouth.
Apparently, they'd used private phone lines ran through the tunnel network they'd made, but if that wasn't know (And tapped) beforehand, I'd be fuming as a SIGINT commander.
They got the drop on them, sure. But for such a militarized nation such as Israel to be caught with their pants so thoroughly around their ankles is pretty surprising.
Actually, when an organisation is so thoroughly convinced of its superiority and total technological control, it a surprisingly easy mindset to manipulate. The Hamas did a large number of large-scale trainings the last few years, always in plain sight, and so it claimed it was doing during the night of the 6th October...
About the tunnel phone lines, according to the Israeli press it really wasn't known beforehand. Finally, according to a number of reports, it seems a lot of indications of an imminent attacks were detected, but most of them weren't taken seriously and no one had the whole data to be able to connect the dots.
Yup. From what I read, only a few knew about it and planned it all in person. They sent the plans out to each commander of a unit before/during morning prayer on October 7th, which was 5 am. The idea was for the units to meet after morning prayer at their location and then commence. Since it was 5 am, the Israeli’s likely didn’t even have time to read the messages they were collecting.
Exactly. If the meeting is out of "earshot" (audible or electronic) then there is no interception.
As I understand it, though, Israeli top brass failed to listen to warnings from their subordinates.
Had a discussion on my travels with an Israeli who was involved in intelligence. Apparently they have some top notch stuff, not in par with USA or China, but still world class.
He didn't go into specifics, but based on the amount of mercenary spyware coming out of Israel, it doesn't surprise me.
I have no affiliation with the intelligence sector, but I expect there are layers to this. And no matter how good you are, you can be beaten with a budget
The USA defence and intelligence budget dwarves Israels, and no matter how good the IDF and Mossad are, theyre just not in the same league.
Was it? I had no idea it was that bad for them, i thought it was a \~30 day back and forth around the Golan heights which ended with Lebanon pleading for the UN to call for ceasefire.
theyve learned alot from last time though, theyve been sending in small strike teams always within a km or 2 from the border, and not meeting them headon. theyve been intensely drilling for months and are ready to in with an hours notice
>The war had ended without clear military victory, **a much smaller para-military organization successfully resisted against a much larger force** which had complete air superiority among other technological advantages. Lebanese rockets aimed at Israel's civilian population continued throughout the war which Israel could not effectively stop. Life in the affected regions of Israel was seriously disrupted, with many civilians either leaving their homes temporarily or spending time in shelters. When Israel initiated a large scale ground offensive the offensive did not result in military gains and was not completed.
>Some of the troubling findings revealed that there were serious failings and shortcomings in the decision-making processes at both the political and military levels, in preparedness, decision-making and performance in the IDF, particularly the army, in strategic thinking and planning, in both the political and the military echelons, and in the defence of the civilian population and in coping with rockets.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winograd_Commission#Final_report
HUMINT? Terrible. Too many loose ties. I have a life to live, and no single goal worth risking it all for. I've got no reason to go turtle mode.
SIGINT? Smarter than the average bear. Staying anonymous is one thing, reducing a footprint that makes your activity less attributable is another. And my awareness of that will definitely help. Thankfully, enough exposure to the field has ingrained this in me.
Ultimately, its a battle of resources. It all depends on how much they want me. I can confidently say they wont stumble upon whatever it is I'm hiding in this hypothetical scenario, but a focused effort, multi pronged Cyber and physical effort would do anyone without an intense security detail.
'Senior commander' is a pretty ambiguous term. Other sources are saying 'field commander'.
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/05/15/725617/High-ranking-Hezbollah-field-commander-killed-in-Israeli-attack-on-southern-Lebanon
I don't think there is any way to place this guys NATO equivalent rank without knowledge of Hezbollah's field structure that is not public.
I know them... I know it's infection methods and how it works, it's my job.* Pegasus, as reported to the public, runs on iOS and Android. A custom ROM, locked down system and iron tight OPSEC (burner phones) would mostly deal with that threat. Military leaders would know this, especially when dealing with Israel.
"Anything that connects to the internet" calm down. The game is pretty tight but using a device that ain't compromised isn't that tough. It's often laziness that gets people got. That, or insiders. The tech is often solid, the weakest link is always the users. And relying too faithfully on the tech is a weakness of the users.
- i.e. Pegasus on iPhone utilised a zero click infection method, however this required the recipient to open the iMessage. OPSEC would dictate "use only for internet-based phone calls over encrypted lines, No one should know this number, burn phone upon receipt of any unexpected comm"
some more interesting details: he is the 300th killed acknowledged by Hezbollah, although IDF belives that they have over 450 eliminated they typically admit only the losses of experienced fighter or commanders(additionally, the IDF has eliminated over 50 Hamas wing in Lebanon, +100 more from Amal terror organization)
As you can see he was targeted using 3 missiles to make sure he wouldn't survive, he was killed alonsinde his 2 bodyguards.
Israel has eliminated over 30 senior commanders in the Hezbollah organization, so the majority of the commanders in the south have been liquidated, and the remaining are hiding 24/7 in bunkers.
yesterday Hezbolla targeted an Israeli civilian using ATGM, 24 Israelis have been killed in the north since 8.10, almost half of them are civilians.
Though civilians are never legitimate targets unless they are involved directly in combat, the civilian targeted by the ATGM was a contractor working on a military installation so definitely not “uninvolved” as Israeli leaders put it.
> Amal terror organization
Do you have any sources for Amal committing terrorist attacks? As far as I can tell they function as a conventional militia.
A top Hezbollah field commander was killed in last night's drone strike in southern Lebanon, the military says.
Hussein Ibrahim Makki, according to the IDF, was a senior commander in the terror group's so-called Southern Front unit. He previously commanded Hezbollah's coastal division, the military says.
Hezbollah announced his death earlier following the airstrike near Tyre, but did not refer to him as a commander.
The IDF says Makki "planned and carried out many terror attacks against the Israeli home front amid the war."
Not really, Israel has eliminated 20-30 high-ranking Hezbollah commanders, those are people the closest in the circle of Nasralla, they had decades of experience fighting against Israel they can’t simply replace them with another dude, there were pictures of them with Nasralla or Solemami, it’s definitely a devastation blow to Hezbollah
Hezbollah acknowledged the strike and killing... what are you getting at?
Want him to have his name on the top of the car and a zoom in enhance of his ID documents?
Bibi and the Shin Bet got what they wanted, and what they knew would happen. They transferred soldiers from the Gaza border to the West Bank, to support the settlers. Until the 7th of October more than 200 Palestinians were killed in the West Bank by settlers and the IDF. How many times are you pushed before you push back?
There is no condoning killing civilians.
Sadly, the slaughter on the Gaza strip have probably created tenfold more resistance than it have killed. The problem have only been delayed further.
The Palestinian authority should've declared war on Israel first & attack military targets, not innocent teenagers at a festival.
Hamas needs to be dissolved, they care more about Terrorism & Anti Zionism than their own Palestinian population.
That is fair enough, but the PLO on the West Bank and Hamas and their Al Qassam (?) are separate organizations that doesnt seem to cooperate well.
The action of 7th of October was planned to be done to collect hostages for negotiations, which got extremely out of hand.
In the eyes of the population on Gaza i believe Hamas can not do anything wrong, as long as they are fighting their case. They are desperate.
They need a legitimate government, the UN should try harder to negotiate a permanent peace plan.
I'm fine with possible Palestine independence, but it should be monitored carefully by the UN.
Hamas is simply using terror to keep themselves in power, Hamas has been nothing but trouble for the local population.
I sincerely believe that a two-state solution is impossible. Unfortunately neither party would be satisfied with any partition, in terms of who gets what, where.
I think that the only viable solution is one state, and that all sides are thoroughly investigated for war crimes. Sadly this is probably even more unlikely to happen.
Yes, Hamas have overall been a bad deal for the people in Gaza. But, for them, it is better than indolence.
It's extremely difficult, but with UN pressure it should be somewhat possible.
Palestine needs to be under firm surveillance for a long time, going on the way it's been going for the last decades isn't really a solution either.
I definitely agree that the current handling of this conflict is inefficient, and that an increased surveillance of Palestine and Isreal is neccessary to ensure an eventual peace. But this is difficult as both parties are negatively positioned to the idea of a UN surveillance. The veto-nations in the UN doesnt help the situation either for that matter.
Should've used a knife missile and saved that motorcyclist's life. But, given that the IDF doesn't give a shit about civilian casualties, I guess it's not surprising.
Edit: damn this one got me a "reddit cares" message REAL quick lol
How do we know that was a senior commander from Hezbollah? Do we believe Israel, the biggest liar on the planet which is also guilty of genocide. It's more than likely some innocent family trying to get away from the Nazis/Israeli's
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A senior commander dies like once a week, how many they fuckin got lol
Lots. They all have 1 weeks experience in the job.
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.... have 1 week's (worth of) experience...
The size and shape of the organisation is what determines how many senior commanders you have; if you kill a senior leader today you can do his replacement next week. These are senior, not necessarily experienced, long-standing etc.
"One man carries the rank of senior commander, and the man behind him carries the rank of Assistant to the Senior commander. When the senior commander is killed then the man behind him will pick up the rank of senior commander!"
Senior now means 2 days on a job lol Promotion process is basically: who wants a promotion step forward.... everyone steps back and slow Akbar gets promotion
When you get promoted based on killing civilians, Alot.
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The bots of "from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free" have arrived
It's more like seniors in a high school.
Divided by allegiances, United by... Too many officers.
This was actually a car with humanitarian chefs in it.
I mean one thing you have to consider is movement probing. You can easily observe how you are being watched and send soldiers to move where in a place of a commander to see when they are actively air striking HVTs. So some of these might not even have HVTs they just leave out information for their enemy to act on.
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Leaders, officers and commanders are the links that keep any organization coordinated or minimally cohesive. In addition, they are usually the ones with the most experience, connections and knowledge in the most complex tasks. A group of leaderless rookies and losers are like headless chickens: they will do stupid things that put them at risk and eventually be hunted more easily.
That person riding his motorbike the opposite way absolutely got smoked too right? Or am I crazy?
yeah, but nobody cares about them
This is not a war that either belligerent gives a fuck about civilians at this point.
There has never been a war were the people in charge gave a fuck about civilians mate
mate, that's simply not true, and there have been countless entire wars where the leader and soldiers actively worked to mitigate civilian harm. Then there is this, where it was kicked off by one side killing kids and the other then flattening full apartment blocks.
Wars are fought for profit and personal gains. Mitigating civilian casualties doesn't mean you give a fuck about civilians, it just makes your task harder the more you kill. Every conflict there are war crimes and horrors being committed by both sides. This is the truth of war. "There is nothing that war has ever achieved that we could not better achieve without it"
The only atribution I can find for that quote is to an individual named Henry Havelock Ellis, who was at one point the Vice President of the Eugenics Education Society. Wouldn’t be my choice for a moral authority. Perhaps you know better from where that quote originates?
Could you name some of the “countless wars where the leader and soldiers actively worked to mitigate civilian harm”?
Sure, and I’ll simplify things by keeping it to a US context (I can expand to include other militaries if you’d like). Let’s first remember that working to accomplish something and actually accomplishing something are two different things. I also find it necessary to stipulate that I believe evaluating the conduct of any military should be done by comparing the conduct of the military in question to its own precious conduct and the conduct of other peer militaries in similar situations. Since WW2, but really more so since the Vietnam War Western militaries (mostly, but not exclusively Western NATO-aligned ones) have adopted Rules of Engagement (ROE) that prevent them (in theory at least) from shooting anything they feel like. The same militaries are also FAR more likely to prosecute soldiers who act criminally than (most of) their non-NATO counterparts. That isn’t to say Western Militaries don’t commit war crimes, Abu Ghraib absolutely occurred, but 17 US soldiers were disciplined for their role in the torture. Compare that to how an army like Russia operates. The Russian military has a LONG standing practice of Dedovshchina which is basically an informal but widely practiced tradition of brutalizing new recruits using physical, sexual, and emotional violence. This leads to a military culture wherein the lives of Russian soldiers are given extremely little value. You can only imagine how they treat their enemies if they have no compassion for their own. The only examples of Russian soldiers being prosecuted by Russian authorities for crimes committed during war (that I can find) are punishments meted out for not following the strict rules about what you can and can’t post on social media. So, going back to the US context, conflicts like the Invasion of Grenada, the invasion of Panama, Gulf War 1 and 2, and the fight against ISIS were fought under much different rules than we operated under previously. That isn’t to say the rules are perfect and prevent all civilian suffering, but it is to say there is at least a tangible policy driven attempt to operate with a greater appreciation for the safety of civilians. During WW2, bombing civilian targets with masses of bomber squadrons dropping unguided bomb with a less than 1% chance to hit their target was par for the course. In Vietnam, stricter rules of engagement were adopted. Many military men of that era believed the ROE to have been too strict and contributed to the American defeat (to be clear, I do not support this view). Here’s a link to a paper on the subject: [Link](https://media.defense.gov/2017/Dec/28/2001861735/-1/-1/0/T_DRAKE_RULES_OF_DEFEAT.PDF) The ROE for subsequent military actions have (generally) been even more stringent than those imposed during the Vietnam War. It’s pretty difficult to drop any sort of ordnance now without first consulting a whole slew of lawyers. There are, obviously, still problems with this system, but empirical data demonstrates that our current tactics and ROE are far less destructive than those we previously operated under. Here’s a good excerpt from Wikipedia demonstrating the effectiveness of strict ROE “In 2011, the IBC (Iraq Body Count project) published data in PLOS Medicine on 2003-2008 civilian deaths in Iraq by perpetrator and cause of death. The study broke down civilian deaths by perpetrator into the following categories: 74% unidentified perpetrator: defined as "those who target civilians (i.e., no identifiable military target is present), while appearing indistinguishable from civilians: for example, a suicide bomber disguised as a civilian in a market. Unknown (i.e., unidentified) perpetrators in Iraq include sectarian combatants and Anti-Coalition combatants who maintain a civilian appearance while targeting civilians." 11% anti-coalition forces: defined as "un-uniformed combatants identified by attacks on coalition targets" during the event. Anti-Coalition combatants in the event of targeting purely civilians would instead be classed under the "unidentified perpetrator" category. 12% coalition forces: identified by uniforms or use of air attacks.” So despite being the invading force, having the ability to fly bombing missions without impediment, and access to a wider and more powerful array of weaponry, coalition forces accounted for just over 10% of civilian casualties.
>shooting anything they feel like. Which is also not what we are seeing is this video, right?
I don’t have enough context to definitively say that about this particular video, but I do think that Israel has generally done a poor job (I believe deliberately, I’m no fan of Netanyahu and his right wing cronies) of minimizing civilian casualties in this conflict. It seems, to me, that they’re generally ok with an unjustifiably high amount of collateral damage. So I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m just saying I don’t know, but I completely understand the skepticism.
I agree, all we see is a random car. But generally speaking: What about roof knocking, flyers, calling etc. to prevent casualties? Have we seen that in any conflict before? Why did they do a poor job or compared to what? What exactly could they have done better?
So which countless wars? Seems like you’re suggesting there have been countless wars involving the west with flawless roe after Vietnam til nowz Did the roe help hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who died? Were the USA just firing at anyone when they drone bombed that wedding?
It’s kinda frustrating that you seem to have deliberately misinterpreted my argument. “So which countless wars” I named 4 that the US were involved in because I limited my post to the US context to try to shorten an already long post. You could also trace how, let’s say, European Armies have evolved from their rather brutal tactics used during the wars of colonial independence in the mid 20th century (Portugal, France, England to name just a few) to their modern ROE as part of NATO. You could use the intervention in Bosnia (1995), the similar action in Kosovo (1999), Operation Ocean Shield (2009), and other actions to evaluate how the more modern ROE influenced the action. “Seems like you’re suggesting there have been countless wars involving the west with flawless roe until nowz” I actually didn’t make that argument, at all. Cite in my post where I said any action taken by the west has been “flawless” or even insinuated anything remotely close to “flawless”. I actually went out of my way to say the opposite, that despite the intentions, military actions involving the West absolutely come with civilian casualties. What I am arguing, however, is if you actually examine the development of ROE through the history of armed conflict involving Western militaries, you’ll see a trend of increasing concern to minimize the civilian casualties. That argument does not imply perfection or flawlessness in any way. It doesn’t legitimate the conflicts either, you can plausibly argue every casualty suffered by Iraqi civilians as a result of our unjustified invasion is evidence of our brutality. What I implore you to do, however, is measure the effects of our ROE compared to those employed by other militaries with less strict rules.
Someone should tell the 400k+ dead civilians killed by the USA since 9/11 how enlightened war is.
Working in cyber security, I can't help but wonder how bad these commanders OPSEC is (or how good Israel's intelligence REALLY is). These guys drop like flies, which really makes you question the capability of their leadership. I guess it's anyone who'll take the job these days... Side effects of this position may include death from above in the form of hellfire missile
IDF intel basically owns Lebanese cyberspace and Hezbollah and Hamas try to mitigate this by minizing their EW signature. So the IDF heavily relies on HUMINT as well. Little anecdote on IDF EW capabilities; when I was deployed in south Lebanon I would receive unsolicited messages on my Lebanese phone from the IDF advising me to leave the area I was in due to imminent IDF "operational activities" aka blowing up shit.
Geolocation via cell towers is dope. IMSI triangulation works if you know the device of the guy you're hunting though. If the likes of Hezbollah/ Hamas haven't learnt this lesson by now, they better prep more coffins. Although, the point you made does raise some interesting questions about Oct 7th I'd been discussing in my intel circles. "Own Lebanese / Palestinian cyberspace, yet still get dropped on..."
From my understanding the attack plan was already known for some time, however the exact date was kept a secret and spread lastminute by word of mouth. It does raise the question if there was political incentive to just let it happen as a casus belli.
That's the angle for sure, further propelled by their unwavering momentum and desire to take it all the way, But given the sheer scale, it's just too unbelievable to have such a large, rapid force mobile only via word of mouth. Apparently, they'd used private phone lines ran through the tunnel network they'd made, but if that wasn't know (And tapped) beforehand, I'd be fuming as a SIGINT commander. They got the drop on them, sure. But for such a militarized nation such as Israel to be caught with their pants so thoroughly around their ankles is pretty surprising.
Actually, when an organisation is so thoroughly convinced of its superiority and total technological control, it a surprisingly easy mindset to manipulate. The Hamas did a large number of large-scale trainings the last few years, always in plain sight, and so it claimed it was doing during the night of the 6th October... About the tunnel phone lines, according to the Israeli press it really wasn't known beforehand. Finally, according to a number of reports, it seems a lot of indications of an imminent attacks were detected, but most of them weren't taken seriously and no one had the whole data to be able to connect the dots.
Yup. From what I read, only a few knew about it and planned it all in person. They sent the plans out to each commander of a unit before/during morning prayer on October 7th, which was 5 am. The idea was for the units to meet after morning prayer at their location and then commence. Since it was 5 am, the Israeli’s likely didn’t even have time to read the messages they were collecting.
not much left to put in coffins... maybe decorative urns?
It would be difficult for the IDF or Mossad to "intercept" meetings held in Qatar or subterranean in Gaza.
Interception happens at source or destination. Not on the medium.
Exactly. If the meeting is out of "earshot" (audible or electronic) then there is no interception. As I understand it, though, Israeli top brass failed to listen to warnings from their subordinates.
Had a discussion on my travels with an Israeli who was involved in intelligence. Apparently they have some top notch stuff, not in par with USA or China, but still world class. He didn't go into specifics, but based on the amount of mercenary spyware coming out of Israel, it doesn't surprise me.
You know too much.
I always thought Israel are some of the best when it comes to gather intelligence, just not when it comes to Israel itself it seems...
I have no affiliation with the intelligence sector, but I expect there are layers to this. And no matter how good you are, you can be beaten with a budget The USA defence and intelligence budget dwarves Israels, and no matter how good the IDF and Mossad are, theyre just not in the same league.
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Was it? I had no idea it was that bad for them, i thought it was a \~30 day back and forth around the Golan heights which ended with Lebanon pleading for the UN to call for ceasefire.
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theyve learned alot from last time though, theyve been sending in small strike teams always within a km or 2 from the border, and not meeting them headon. theyve been intensely drilling for months and are ready to in with an hours notice
>The war had ended without clear military victory, **a much smaller para-military organization successfully resisted against a much larger force** which had complete air superiority among other technological advantages. Lebanese rockets aimed at Israel's civilian population continued throughout the war which Israel could not effectively stop. Life in the affected regions of Israel was seriously disrupted, with many civilians either leaving their homes temporarily or spending time in shelters. When Israel initiated a large scale ground offensive the offensive did not result in military gains and was not completed. >Some of the troubling findings revealed that there were serious failings and shortcomings in the decision-making processes at both the political and military levels, in preparedness, decision-making and performance in the IDF, particularly the army, in strategic thinking and planning, in both the political and the military echelons, and in the defence of the civilian population and in coping with rockets. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winograd_Commission#Final_report
How do you think you'd do against US and Israeli intelligence?
HUMINT? Terrible. Too many loose ties. I have a life to live, and no single goal worth risking it all for. I've got no reason to go turtle mode. SIGINT? Smarter than the average bear. Staying anonymous is one thing, reducing a footprint that makes your activity less attributable is another. And my awareness of that will definitely help. Thankfully, enough exposure to the field has ingrained this in me. Ultimately, its a battle of resources. It all depends on how much they want me. I can confidently say they wont stumble upon whatever it is I'm hiding in this hypothetical scenario, but a focused effort, multi pronged Cyber and physical effort would do anyone without an intense security detail.
'Senior commander' is a pretty ambiguous term. Other sources are saying 'field commander'. https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/05/15/725617/High-ranking-Hezbollah-field-commander-killed-in-Israeli-attack-on-southern-Lebanon I don't think there is any way to place this guys NATO equivalent rank without knowledge of Hezbollah's field structure that is not public.
Look up Pegasus Software. Isralie owned. You can't hide from them if you pick up literally anything that connects to the internet.
I know them... I know it's infection methods and how it works, it's my job.* Pegasus, as reported to the public, runs on iOS and Android. A custom ROM, locked down system and iron tight OPSEC (burner phones) would mostly deal with that threat. Military leaders would know this, especially when dealing with Israel. "Anything that connects to the internet" calm down. The game is pretty tight but using a device that ain't compromised isn't that tough. It's often laziness that gets people got. That, or insiders. The tech is often solid, the weakest link is always the users. And relying too faithfully on the tech is a weakness of the users. - i.e. Pegasus on iPhone utilised a zero click infection method, however this required the recipient to open the iMessage. OPSEC would dictate "use only for internet-based phone calls over encrypted lines, No one should know this number, burn phone upon receipt of any unexpected comm"
"It's often laziness that gets people got." Crux.
some more interesting details: he is the 300th killed acknowledged by Hezbollah, although IDF belives that they have over 450 eliminated they typically admit only the losses of experienced fighter or commanders(additionally, the IDF has eliminated over 50 Hamas wing in Lebanon, +100 more from Amal terror organization) As you can see he was targeted using 3 missiles to make sure he wouldn't survive, he was killed alonsinde his 2 bodyguards. Israel has eliminated over 30 senior commanders in the Hezbollah organization, so the majority of the commanders in the south have been liquidated, and the remaining are hiding 24/7 in bunkers. yesterday Hezbolla targeted an Israeli civilian using ATGM, 24 Israelis have been killed in the north since 8.10, almost half of them are civilians.
Why didn't the bodyguard protect him? Useless
wdym, they heroically blocked the first 2 missiles from hitting the commander!
Job Offer Request. Car roof Security Gaurd. -Must be 400+ lbs and able to carry many ballistic plates.
The anal terror organization
Though civilians are never legitimate targets unless they are involved directly in combat, the civilian targeted by the ATGM was a contractor working on a military installation so definitely not “uninvolved” as Israeli leaders put it.
Just like the Palestinian civilians hiding Hamas members in their homes? Definitely not “uninvolved”
So why announce it in the first place? That's unusual.
> Amal terror organization Do you have any sources for Amal committing terrorist attacks? As far as I can tell they function as a conventional militia.
Splash 1,2 and a 3rd holy fuck lol
*fuck that guy* Based on other intel released by the IDF it may have been a sign of very much being willing to escalate
Enjoy your 70 virgin goats
A top Hezbollah field commander was killed in last night's drone strike in southern Lebanon, the military says. Hussein Ibrahim Makki, according to the IDF, was a senior commander in the terror group's so-called Southern Front unit. He previously commanded Hezbollah's coastal division, the military says. Hezbollah announced his death earlier following the airstrike near Tyre, but did not refer to him as a commander. The IDF says Makki "planned and carried out many terror attacks against the Israeli home front amid the war."
Good riddance.
*Stop! Stop! He's already dead*
A singular sector commander maybe, those guys are easily replaceable
All they did is create a job opportunity
And another opportunity to blow up another commander.
Now he is senior shakshuka
Senior meant he had a car that worked - had
Congrats! And thank you, USA.
if one missile isn't enough, send more... gotta make sure he's toasted.
Bro is looking like an overcooked goulash right now. Missiles well spent.
Are these three strike or is the video bugged? To me looks like a bit of a waste of material, since I believe, those have precision.
When it’s not your money who cares !?!
I feel like every senior commander they kill it spawns 3 more.
Not really, Israel has eliminated 20-30 high-ranking Hezbollah commanders, those are people the closest in the circle of Nasralla, they had decades of experience fighting against Israel they can’t simply replace them with another dude, there were pictures of them with Nasralla or Solemami, it’s definitely a devastation blow to Hezbollah
This war is costing billions and the Israeli economy has shrunk by 20%, the quicker this bullshit is over, the better.
That is exactly what happens.
"Senior commander" - basically had full sandals rather than just flip-flops.
Guccis
100%
When you just want to kill civilians and don't have a purpose, call them " senior leaders"
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They are killing "senior" commanders every week. How many do they got. Come on
Are they eliminating anyone who included "SENIOR MANAGER" in their resume? HAMAS Inc *Senior manager* Boom
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what is actually in the video: Israelis blowing up a car.
Hezbollah acknowledged the strike and killing... what are you getting at? Want him to have his name on the top of the car and a zoom in enhance of his ID documents?
that car had bazillions children in it, most of them were unborn infants
Anyone know why they the videos are black and white? Is there a reason for not showing colour?
Perhaps thermal cameras on the UAVs?
Probably thermal set to white as hot.
It's thermal white hot
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Bibi and the Shin Bet got what they wanted, and what they knew would happen. They transferred soldiers from the Gaza border to the West Bank, to support the settlers. Until the 7th of October more than 200 Palestinians were killed in the West Bank by settlers and the IDF. How many times are you pushed before you push back? There is no condoning killing civilians. Sadly, the slaughter on the Gaza strip have probably created tenfold more resistance than it have killed. The problem have only been delayed further.
The Palestinian authority should've declared war on Israel first & attack military targets, not innocent teenagers at a festival. Hamas needs to be dissolved, they care more about Terrorism & Anti Zionism than their own Palestinian population.
That is fair enough, but the PLO on the West Bank and Hamas and their Al Qassam (?) are separate organizations that doesnt seem to cooperate well. The action of 7th of October was planned to be done to collect hostages for negotiations, which got extremely out of hand. In the eyes of the population on Gaza i believe Hamas can not do anything wrong, as long as they are fighting their case. They are desperate.
They need a legitimate government, the UN should try harder to negotiate a permanent peace plan. I'm fine with possible Palestine independence, but it should be monitored carefully by the UN. Hamas is simply using terror to keep themselves in power, Hamas has been nothing but trouble for the local population.
I sincerely believe that a two-state solution is impossible. Unfortunately neither party would be satisfied with any partition, in terms of who gets what, where. I think that the only viable solution is one state, and that all sides are thoroughly investigated for war crimes. Sadly this is probably even more unlikely to happen. Yes, Hamas have overall been a bad deal for the people in Gaza. But, for them, it is better than indolence.
It's extremely difficult, but with UN pressure it should be somewhat possible. Palestine needs to be under firm surveillance for a long time, going on the way it's been going for the last decades isn't really a solution either.
I definitely agree that the current handling of this conflict is inefficient, and that an increased surveillance of Palestine and Isreal is neccessary to ensure an eventual peace. But this is difficult as both parties are negatively positioned to the idea of a UN surveillance. The veto-nations in the UN doesnt help the situation either for that matter.
Should've used a knife missile and saved that motorcyclist's life. But, given that the IDF doesn't give a shit about civilian casualties, I guess it's not surprising. Edit: damn this one got me a "reddit cares" message REAL quick lol
How do we know that was a senior commander from Hezbollah? Do we believe Israel, the biggest liar on the planet which is also guilty of genocide. It's more than likely some innocent family trying to get away from the Nazis/Israeli's