I’d be stunned if WA only has 129 deaths. SA has had more than that with 2/3 the population size. Qld nearly four times that with double the population.
For once government modelling looks too optimistic.
Yup. Most people hadn’t had the ok to get boosters in SA before our Gov followed BusinessSAs request to let it rip for our economy. It was an asinine decision. Plus these guys are releasing information clearly and letting people know what to expect and acknowledging it will be hard instead of “it’s going to be a safe Christmas” or “time to flex”. That’s why we noped out when self preservation kicked in and locked ourselves down till we could get boosters and RATs. We were lied to and treated like kindergarten kids who needed to go to school for the sake of the economy.
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Yup! Exactly the reason why delay, delay, delay, until you reasonably cannot with the border, is still the best strategy. I can understand the economic harm argument but I would rather side with "wait 4 weeks and reduce deaths and hospitalisations several folds".
Then again the vulnerable were freshly boosted vs having been boosted months ago with waning. The Eastern states waves are also barely 3 months in - so the six month totals will be higher.
I’ll be impressed if deaths are anywhere near 129, credit to WA if they can achieve that - consider me highly skeptical at this stage though.
The protection against severe disease doesn't wane that fast after the third dose, just the protection against catching and spreading it.
Also, WA has hopefully skipped a Delta outbreak entirely through opening borders later, and if Delta is still around the third dose will help with that.
In the US, over 1/3rd of the eligible population is unvaccinated. Against Delta those 1/3rd benefited from herd immunity, but there much less here immunity against Omicron.
Also, in the US only 25% of the population have had a third dose - and Omicron immunity increases significantly with that third dose.
For the WA experience:
From the sequencing counts at the bottom of the daily media release it looks like WA been 100% omicron since 20 January.
National sequencing from the last 3 weeks has been 99.4% omicron.
So very little delta can be expected from interstate - as the vaccination/masks offer better protection against catching delta than omicron I hope that any as small numbers of delta may arrive peter out as omicron out competes in the community.
However they do forecast 11 new seed cases per day from international travel. Currently global sequencing is averaging 98.8 omicron, if these numbers hold we could expect an non-omicron international case every 8 days.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2021/tracker-omicron-spread/
For the US experience:
Yeah they have 99.5 percent omicron at the moment but also are just coming down from [record case numbers](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_cases&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA). With case numbers like that it's but surprising, even if it is a "less severe" variants.
The modelling states the optimum Vax rate will fall in March. Lots of the extremely vulnerable have a 3 dose primary vaccination and a 4th as a booster.
The data around the new Covid treatment looks really promising.
It's interesting to read some of the comments. In NYC if you test positive and are symptomatic they will arrange for free delivery of the pills and in Atlanta they are available in the local pharmacy.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1494069081586216966
> The Paxlovid pill (Nirmatrelvir) randomized, placebo-controlled trial published
@NEJM
:
89% efficacy vs Covid hospitalizations or deaths, and quick reduction of viral load.
The active pills had less serious adverse events or discontinuations than placebo
https://t.co/HBMRZt4wBo
Interesting comparative. Governments obviously spend hundreds of millions on a regular basis to make roads safer, advertising campaigns, associated costs of road accidents and deaths, etc.
I’ve had a look and compared the covid fatalities to some of our most common fatal illnesses and in diseases... not for any point other than to compare the risk to cause death. Not trying to have a dig at the gov, just an interesting fact I thought.
I honestly think we will never truly know, as there will likely be so many healthy and boosted people who won’t know they have it and therefore won’t get tested.
Throughout the whole pandemic we have seen modelling that showed really alarming numbers, then what ended up transpiring wasn’t nearly as bad as what was modelled.
I am not a medical professional though. I am
purely guessing here. There will most definitely be many asymptomatic people though who will never get tested.
With the recent variant being highly transmitted but mild in symptoms... the figures are going to be way off.
The figures I take note of are the hospitalised and fatalities... they are the more sure and serious ones in my eyes.
We recently had a guy at work get a text to get tested, he was shattered that we may of had to shut down because of it... he came up negative. Minute he came in I went and reassured him that sooner or latter it’s going to get in and no ones going to be pointing the blame because it’s going to be a part of life for a long time. I think there is people suffering in silence also not wanting to be the person that passed it on... I’m sure there will be people that are feeling like that too.
Oh 100%. No one wants to be that person that infected their work place.
As more and more of us get it though I think we will become desensitised and then can finally start the true transition to living with it.
In WA I feel it’s harder now. Yes, we didn’t go through what the rest of the world did. COVID isn’t ‘new’ to us though. It’s been in the back of our minds 2 years now, hearing about it all the time.
That is why even though we have only just had to deal with it now, people are already tuning out as just like everywhere else, it’s been 2 years for us, and I think we all just want to move on when we see the rest of the world is.
Unfortunately to get to that next phase we have to go through the wave first.
Once you start knowing people who have people had it and they’re fine it’s much less scary. Worst part for me is more people than usual being off work and having to cover for the, but that will pass.
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I think they are estimating "symptomatic cases".
If somewhere between ⅔ and ¾ of infections go undetected or unreported we would be looking at closer to 1.4 or 1.8 million.
Current reported case totals for the entire pandemic;
Entirety of Australia - just under 12% of the entire population.
NSW - 15.4%
VIC -15.1%
QLD - 10.3%
SA - 7.7%
WA - 0.01%
TAS - 7.4%
NT - 15%
ACT - 10.5%
Are you claiming that every state in Australia has/will have a minimum of 50-60% of their respective populations catch covid before the end of this current wave of omicron?
Undoubtedly.
When we were having 40k cases a day no one was even able to get tests and we were still pulling in that number. The actual cases are undercooked by a significant amount.
That a number are undetected is guaranteed, what that number is will be harder to determine, and choosing a number for modelling is a matter of judgement.
Different studies at different times have found different results. This small Qld survey found 90% of the positive cases were previously undetected, with only 20% showing symptoms. Of course a.m number of those may have been early stage infections that's would have become symptomatic later, or otherwise picked up by surveillance testing for work/school/etc.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-04/qld-coronavirus-covid-pcr-tests-queensland-health-symptoms/100771540
So any modelling will need to estimate that number of undetected infections, for example the projections Chris Billington posts here regularly make this assumption:
>The projection assumes that only 27% of infections are captured by testing, as such, for every projected case there are an additional three to four infections implied that are not detected through testing.
https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html#sir
The WA modelling doesn't reveal its assumptions for undetected or unsymptomatic infections, that aspect of their modelling hasn't been revealed.
C'mon people, get with the reality, this stuff can't be stopped. Most people are vaxxed to the max and it's really made little difference. Just go about your lives.
In his advice to the Premier, Dr Robertson said 1700 daily cases were forecast on March 2, rising to 5450 cases by March 13 and peaking at 9700 cases at the end of March. Peak immunity would be reached in March and WA was in an “optimal position” to deal with the virus.
Considering 2nd of March is only 8 days away, seems unlikely we get to nearly 2,000 daily cases by then.
We have been limping along in the 200’s for 4 days now.
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Enough is enough WA this is a joke get off your high horse and join the rest of the country. You still are Australians right? Or do you think you are a special section of the country that should be separated forever? Give me a break.
It's hard to compare because they all have different omicron/booster balance and vaccination rates.
New South Wales reports covering 26 Nov to 29 Jan show:
751÷803,104 = 0.094%
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/weekly-reports.aspx
So they are around 3 time higher but there are reasons why it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.
I’d be stunned if WA only has 129 deaths. SA has had more than that with 2/3 the population size. Qld nearly four times that with double the population. For once government modelling looks too optimistic.
Yeah but boosters are at 57% compared to sweet fuck all when it got to SA. Should make a massive difference to the vulnerable deathrate.
Yup. Most people hadn’t had the ok to get boosters in SA before our Gov followed BusinessSAs request to let it rip for our economy. It was an asinine decision. Plus these guys are releasing information clearly and letting people know what to expect and acknowledging it will be hard instead of “it’s going to be a safe Christmas” or “time to flex”. That’s why we noped out when self preservation kicked in and locked ourselves down till we could get boosters and RATs. We were lied to and treated like kindergarten kids who needed to go to school for the sake of the economy.
RemindMe! 6 months "Compare SA vs WA covid deaths"
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Hey, it’s your reminder. I think I’m a bit early though I hope that’s alright. > “same thing”
Get outa here
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SA 747,000 cases 777 deaths WA 1.12 million cases 575 deaths. For those wondering.
And total population for context: * WA 2.7 million * SA 1.8 million
What's that in per 100,000?
Yup! Exactly the reason why delay, delay, delay, until you reasonably cannot with the border, is still the best strategy. I can understand the economic harm argument but I would rather side with "wait 4 weeks and reduce deaths and hospitalisations several folds".
You can also add in access to anti-viral treatments like Paxlovid.
Then again the vulnerable were freshly boosted vs having been boosted months ago with waning. The Eastern states waves are also barely 3 months in - so the six month totals will be higher. I’ll be impressed if deaths are anywhere near 129, credit to WA if they can achieve that - consider me highly skeptical at this stage though.
The protection against severe disease doesn't wane that fast after the third dose, just the protection against catching and spreading it. Also, WA has hopefully skipped a Delta outbreak entirely through opening borders later, and if Delta is still around the third dose will help with that.
In the US omicron deaths have just overtaken Delta.
In the US, over 1/3rd of the eligible population is unvaccinated. Against Delta those 1/3rd benefited from herd immunity, but there much less here immunity against Omicron. Also, in the US only 25% of the population have had a third dose - and Omicron immunity increases significantly with that third dose.
For the WA experience: From the sequencing counts at the bottom of the daily media release it looks like WA been 100% omicron since 20 January. National sequencing from the last 3 weeks has been 99.4% omicron. So very little delta can be expected from interstate - as the vaccination/masks offer better protection against catching delta than omicron I hope that any as small numbers of delta may arrive peter out as omicron out competes in the community. However they do forecast 11 new seed cases per day from international travel. Currently global sequencing is averaging 98.8 omicron, if these numbers hold we could expect an non-omicron international case every 8 days. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2021/tracker-omicron-spread/ For the US experience: Yeah they have 99.5 percent omicron at the moment but also are just coming down from [record case numbers](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_cases&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA). With case numbers like that it's but surprising, even if it is a "less severe" variants.
The modelling states the optimum Vax rate will fall in March. Lots of the extremely vulnerable have a 3 dose primary vaccination and a 4th as a booster.
The data around the new Covid treatment looks really promising. It's interesting to read some of the comments. In NYC if you test positive and are symptomatic they will arrange for free delivery of the pills and in Atlanta they are available in the local pharmacy. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1494069081586216966 > The Paxlovid pill (Nirmatrelvir) randomized, placebo-controlled trial published @NEJM : 89% efficacy vs Covid hospitalizations or deaths, and quick reduction of viral load. The active pills had less serious adverse events or discontinuations than placebo https://t.co/HBMRZt4wBo
How many of those deaths were delta in SA?
Maybe the don’t have any residential aged care?
Just googled... road toll was 166 last year. That’s enough interwebs for me today.
Interesting comparative. Governments obviously spend hundreds of millions on a regular basis to make roads safer, advertising campaigns, associated costs of road accidents and deaths, etc.
I’ve had a look and compared the covid fatalities to some of our most common fatal illnesses and in diseases... not for any point other than to compare the risk to cause death. Not trying to have a dig at the gov, just an interesting fact I thought.
Like all the other modelling, it will probably get no where near what they are predicting.
Are you thinking it’s going higher or lower?
I honestly think we will never truly know, as there will likely be so many healthy and boosted people who won’t know they have it and therefore won’t get tested. Throughout the whole pandemic we have seen modelling that showed really alarming numbers, then what ended up transpiring wasn’t nearly as bad as what was modelled. I am not a medical professional though. I am purely guessing here. There will most definitely be many asymptomatic people though who will never get tested.
With the recent variant being highly transmitted but mild in symptoms... the figures are going to be way off. The figures I take note of are the hospitalised and fatalities... they are the more sure and serious ones in my eyes. We recently had a guy at work get a text to get tested, he was shattered that we may of had to shut down because of it... he came up negative. Minute he came in I went and reassured him that sooner or latter it’s going to get in and no ones going to be pointing the blame because it’s going to be a part of life for a long time. I think there is people suffering in silence also not wanting to be the person that passed it on... I’m sure there will be people that are feeling like that too.
Oh 100%. No one wants to be that person that infected their work place. As more and more of us get it though I think we will become desensitised and then can finally start the true transition to living with it. In WA I feel it’s harder now. Yes, we didn’t go through what the rest of the world did. COVID isn’t ‘new’ to us though. It’s been in the back of our minds 2 years now, hearing about it all the time. That is why even though we have only just had to deal with it now, people are already tuning out as just like everywhere else, it’s been 2 years for us, and I think we all just want to move on when we see the rest of the world is. Unfortunately to get to that next phase we have to go through the wave first.
Once you start knowing people who have people had it and they’re fine it’s much less scary. Worst part for me is more people than usual being off work and having to cover for the, but that will pass.
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464,000 cases total right? Surely more than 17% of the population is going to get it through this wave given its immense transmissibility.
I think they are estimating "symptomatic cases". If somewhere between ⅔ and ¾ of infections go undetected or unreported we would be looking at closer to 1.4 or 1.8 million.
Current reported case totals for the entire pandemic; Entirety of Australia - just under 12% of the entire population. NSW - 15.4% VIC -15.1% QLD - 10.3% SA - 7.7% WA - 0.01% TAS - 7.4% NT - 15% ACT - 10.5% Are you claiming that every state in Australia has/will have a minimum of 50-60% of their respective populations catch covid before the end of this current wave of omicron?
Undoubtedly. When we were having 40k cases a day no one was even able to get tests and we were still pulling in that number. The actual cases are undercooked by a significant amount.
That a number are undetected is guaranteed, what that number is will be harder to determine, and choosing a number for modelling is a matter of judgement. Different studies at different times have found different results. This small Qld survey found 90% of the positive cases were previously undetected, with only 20% showing symptoms. Of course a.m number of those may have been early stage infections that's would have become symptomatic later, or otherwise picked up by surveillance testing for work/school/etc. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-04/qld-coronavirus-covid-pcr-tests-queensland-health-symptoms/100771540 So any modelling will need to estimate that number of undetected infections, for example the projections Chris Billington posts here regularly make this assumption: >The projection assumes that only 27% of infections are captured by testing, as such, for every projected case there are an additional three to four infections implied that are not detected through testing. https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html#sir The WA modelling doesn't reveal its assumptions for undetected or unsymptomatic infections, that aspect of their modelling hasn't been revealed.
The experts suggest that this is the case already.
That many people were infected with Covid in NSW in about a week at the start of this year.
So it ended up being 1.1m cases and 561 deaths in six months. So 240% more cases and 430% more deaths than predicted.
Makes you wonder what modelling they were looking at.
C'mon people, get with the reality, this stuff can't be stopped. Most people are vaxxed to the max and it's really made little difference. Just go about your lives.
Just over 17% will get COVID? I am boosted and I don't like these odds.
In his advice to the Premier, Dr Robertson said 1700 daily cases were forecast on March 2, rising to 5450 cases by March 13 and peaking at 9700 cases at the end of March. Peak immunity would be reached in March and WA was in an “optimal position” to deal with the virus. Considering 2nd of March is only 8 days away, seems unlikely we get to nearly 2,000 daily cases by then. We have been limping along in the 200’s for 4 days now.
New Zealand was on a slow boil and they jumped very quickly to the 1000's.
What was that you were saying at slowly limping along at 200 cases?
Haha. Well we were until today. Looks like we were definitely under testing.
Remind me! 6 months
When has any of the Rona modelling been correct in Australia? They basically throw a number out and 50/50 it will be higher or lower.
If it's really 50/50 then they chose the right number!
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Enough is enough WA this is a joke get off your high horse and join the rest of the country. You still are Australians right? Or do you think you are a special section of the country that should be separated forever? Give me a break.
We are reopening in 8 days
8 days too late
More than that. Should have opened February 5th (In my opinion).
I agree
So just ignoring all the other outcomes
Plenty with boosters dying of Covid.
No there isn't
Give it a few months.
The projection of 129÷463932 = 0.028% mortality per symptomatic case seems a bit optimistic.
Isn't that the same as other states?
It's hard to compare because they all have different omicron/booster balance and vaccination rates. New South Wales reports covering 26 Nov to 29 Jan show: 751÷803,104 = 0.094% https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/weekly-reports.aspx So they are around 3 time higher but there are reasons why it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.