I just want streetcars to take off again. They retrofit into existing roads. Electric without needing batteries or charging. Streetcars for high traffic routes, extensive bike lanes and sidewalks, and buses for everything else could take so many cars off the road even in suburbs. You still have some cul de sac issues in suburbs even then, but it could make a massive improvement and newer development could be better laid out.
Bonus points for commuter rail between suburban and urban areas
Did you know: Streetcar companies ended up doing some community development to encourage people to ride on weekends, including building amusement parks.
> One of the first trolley parks in Pennsylvania was Kennywood constructed in 1899 by the Monongahela Street Railway Company.
> Pennsylvania Trolley Museum - *A Ride to Remember: Trolleys and the Fair*
Many main roads in cities in North America have streetcar spacing already. This is because many places had street cars, until car companies came, bought em them up, stripped them down and removed them. So in a sense, we already have the infrastructure needed for street cars.
Bring street cars back!
Automotive engineer here: Yes. Hereās what would actually need to be in place for autonomous vehicles to operate on the roads safely
-every car on the road has to have CV2X (cellular vehicle to infrastructure connection). itās a modem that talks to every other vehicle, street lights and pedestrian phones
-every cell phone will have to have CV2x enabled on their phones (similar to having Bluetooth turned on)
-every street light will need to be a āsmartā street light
The combination of those things is what allows cars to detect every other car, detect when a street light is green/red, and detect when a pedestrian or biker is crossing a street.
Important to note: NO car without this capability can be on the roads. Thatās going to be the biggest hurdle besides infrastructure in street lights bc many people have cars 10-20 years old and wonāt be able to buy a brand new car.
China has already installed all this infrastructure in their street lights etc, and mandated all cars and manufacturers include this.
In the US, this is about 30-40 years away from being possible.
Yes agreed seeing how high speed rail has failed to materialize and weāre 50 years behind China and India.
So all that to say - autonomous vehicles are unlikely to ever be a reality in the US, but if they were itād be 40-50 years from now minimum.
Teslas āfull self driveā is literally just fancy cruise control lmao
Yep. This. Not to mention all the legal and liability hurdles that come with it. What if the car gets hacked? As Americans there will likely be a revolt about freedom when making said switch. And there will likely have to be some sort of car subscription to keep all cars up to date in order for them to work together properly.
That person who still has IOS10 will likely also cause traffic accidents because they refused to update their car. Will that be a fault of the manufacturer? Or the user?
Yeah, my take is 100% that we have already been hosed.
I VIVIDLY remember reading a 3-2-1 contact magazine in the 90s that said that by the year 2000, an 8 year old would be able to drive a car alone because of autonomous vehicles (I remember this so strongly because I turned 16 in the year 2000 and at the time it made me mad that I would be able to drive for real just when you didn't have to anymore).
LOL! Iām keeping my old cars bc Iām broke hahah.
But in all reality, the government would need to provide a major tax incentive for this like āturn in your old car and you get a $10k rebate on your taxesā similar to how theyāre getting some people to add solar panels to their homes.
There would never be enough incentive for me to give up my vehicles for self driving. Unless gasoline becomes so rare that it's impossible to get, I'll always have my older unconnected cars.
You are way off. For starters being an automotive engineer is not the proper field to evaluate the likelihood of autonomous driving. This is an AI problem not an automotive engineering problem.
Your solution to the problem creates a world where you could program the computer in a deterministic way. That will never happen. The cost is too high and the reward is too low.
AI can bypass all those constraints and the narrow AI needed to drive a car will solve this problem a lot sooner than you think.
Yeah. 30-40 years and having public support or bipartisan support, maybe?
CV2X sounds like it might actually make it safe, then you would really need government regulations for how all autonomous vehicles react to various issues/events. Not one company decides theyre going to fuck around with xyz while everyone else uses ___.
I doubt we'll see it due to:
-The U.S. doesnt even want to spend on current infrastructure (even when its failing).
-A lot of people will oppose it due to just not liking self driving for varying legitimate or nonsensical reasons.
-A new self driving vehicle (like you said) is a lot more expensive than some cheap, used, work vehicle.
On that note, if a country were to have fully autonomous vehicles. May as well just treat them like busses. Have a company maintain them and just charge people a fee. No more insurance, rent it for trips or treat it like an uber app daily.
Wow really appreciate the insight.
Is that 40 years mostly due to eventually getting all cars on road equipped, mandatory for new cars then 10/15 for old cars to fall off the roads.
Or the US is so slow to update infrastructure. Each state and municipality has its own unique infrastructure and laws. Makes me think of the challenges of updating our own electoral grid.
No problem!!
The 40 years is based on getting all old cars off the road + infrastructure.
The US is pretty bad at mass infrastructure projects (like high speed rail) so having to update every street light in the country would take awhile.
I think the idea is theyāll pilot in a few cities first āsmart citiesā like Ann Arbor that commit to putting the infrastructure in and then roll it out city by city and state by state.
So even if say California does it, but none else does, you could only use it in California
That will probably never happen in areas like mine especially if the power grid shuts down. There would be fights here over it. I can see it happening.
Yep exactly ! Thatās why Iām saying this isnāt happening any time soon and probably not ever.
However, ambulances are able to connect to street lights with a kinda back door method, while Police cars arenāt able to change a red light green.
The process the US went through for ambulances to turn red lights green would be a similar process to rolling out smart street lights.
The big 3 car companies basically shut down their autonomous vehicle devisions bc the infrastructure is such a long way off.
I was surprised by and dead wrong regarding the average age of vehicles. With cars becoming harder to service, too much technology and actually pieces in new cars all being connected. Like you canāt just slip your stereo out any more have to disassemble the entire front counsels. I assumed more people just buying new cars when once a simple fix is now 5K.
Looks like average age is 12.5 and growing every year. [Average Age Of Cars On US Roads Keeps Rising To Record Levels](https://www.motor1.com/news/667459/average-age-cars-us-2023/).
So yeah getting all the old cars off is going to take some time and harder every year if trends continue. Itās not a software issue itās a new device of hardware that would have to be installed if Iām hearing you correctly.
The infrastructure issue is maddening in the US. I absolutely agree it would be a shit show. One of the more frustrating things about a constitutional republic of separate states. Every thing is so much more inefficient.
There is just no unity currently, like the highway system or railroads connecting the entire country was celebrated and viewed as a US triumph of technological and engendering.
Interesting stuff.
Yes everything you said is accurate!!! Getting old cars off the road isnāt as big of a bottleneck as the infrastructure portion.
Iād basically think of CV2X like a new version of Bluetooth.
Eventually, Bluetooth was rolled out on every phone and new cars, but old cars donāt have it.
CV2X in a car hardware wise is basically 1 modem + a few antennas.
For a street light itās a bunch of sensors/a modem, and for phones itās just like turning on Bluetooth so just a software update. Itād also require some interesting data laws bc for a car to detect you, itād need to know where you are by your phone, and be connected to it while maintaining data security.
Sensors and camera on AVās can get this data without having a connection. Detecting red/green light is actually a pretty simple problem vs many other AV issues.
Yes detecting red/green light is already available to a certain extent in ambulances so they can change a red light to green.
I think the main missing piece is how to detect pedestrians and bikers, especially if they arenāt at a crosswalk.
Theyāre all detected by the cameras and also Lidar and Radar. If you look at the cruise and waymo cars thereās cameras and sensor all over. Thereās instances of people trying to stop an AV by putting a cone in front of it. And it will stop because it sees the cone. The computer vision tech has been around. If your iPhone can scan your face for id check then scanning for a biker or a person is doable.
I think this is more viable since it is already slowly creeping in. With things like "lane assist" and other warning sensors. Several companies have shown that autonomous vehicles work. Even if they have issues so do us humans that are distracted.
I'm looking forward to it because it will improve traffic efficiency and cut down on accidents. Every day I see people sit at green lights playing on their phones. Or they slow down to look at an accident. Not saying autonomous vehicles will be perfect but it can be so much better than how we are driving.
Like merging on the highway as an actual zipper.
I once heard in heavy traffic if a personās spills coffee on them selves and breaks hard. That can reverberate back for 45 minutes in traffic slow downs.
I'm a trucker. I watch these jackwagon assholes change lanes constantly on a major highway backup. It slows everyone down.
It causes an accordion effect as every driver wants to be "first" to stop.
How drunk?
Seriously, the idea of a drunk person backstopping the current generation of self driving is pretty scary. I feel like the self driving car could get the drunk person into a situation and then expect them to step in, and it all goes to shit.
My experiences are with the last five years of the Tesla model 3 with all the bells and whistles. Every update is a new iteration of joy and mild terror. Even four-way stop signs provide a moment to reflect on just how far we still need to go. Meanwhile, construction on the interstate? You better have a sober driver ready to take over.
I think this is going to continue to get better. I think that the features that people are adding can make driving much safer already by assisting drivers. I think itās all good stuff. But. I also think we are at least a decade away from the kind of self driving car where Iām willing to send it out with a drunk or a child or some other incompetent person as the only occupant
It'll be viable but likely never happen unless changes are made to liability. You'll have a kid jump out of nowhere in front of a car and get killed and the car manufacturer will be sued for $100m. Not to mention how we even program in the trolley problem.
you know whats nice? when a speed limit is 60km but the drivers are all comfortable at 70. will the autonomous cars learn to flow with real people? definitely not.
gone will be the human culture of driving. even more staring at phones and disconected from each other. doesnt sound ideal to me.
People really forget how objectively dangerous driving is. If youāre in your late teens to late 20ās you are statistically most likely to die in the car.
Weāve adapted pretty well but our eyes and brains are not made to operate at these speeds. Even if autonomous vehicles make mistakes itāll still save thousands of lives every year.
Society has accepted the risk of disfigurement and death since itās necessary to function in the modern world but autonomous driving would be a huge game changer.
Plus it would alleviate a ton of traffic. A lot of stop and go traffic is the result of people merging improperly, changing lanes unnecessarily, tailgating, etc.
I feel like Autonomous driving has the potential to have the single largest impact on lowering both traffic and accidents, but most people feel like itās āgiving up controlā.
Iām not sure what exactly is enjoyable about sitting in traffic..
If I want to feel in control of a car, Iād take it off roading or to a track.
The problem with autonomous driving is who watches the watchman. If all cars in a city operate off a single system all it'd take would be one bad actor, say a foreign hacker, to cause a catastrophe.
Sure, and the same risk is present now with the systems that control traffic lights and other related networks.
Iām not saying the risk isnāt real, Iād rather see support for autonomous driving go up along with investment protecting that infrastructure.
We donāt necessarily have to have one without the other.
Hold up on your statistics. Statistically younger people get into more car crashes does not equate to statistically youāre more likely to crash if youāre young. (Throwing a random number) if 60% of young people get into a car crash, that does not mean thereās a 60% chance you will crash if youāre young. It means that 60% of young people are idiots and donāt pay enough attention. Thereās not the same level of risk for all drivers. Not all drivers are created equal.
What he's saying is that the leading cause of death of people in their late teens in the US is car accidents.
The single leading cause of death.
* Motor vehicle crashes are the No. 1 leading cause of death for people ages 13 to 19.
* Teen drivers between 16 and 19 are nearly 3 times more likely to die in a car crash than drivers 20 and up.
If it makes you feel better it would eventually destroy the auto insurance industry. Once most cars are autonomous then accidents will be incredibly rare and nobody will be willing to pay these absurd premiums
We need more protections from corporate want-to-be overlords and thatās a whole other conversation. I agree that I donāt want to be in an autonomous car that is programmed for the bottom line.
I don't trust autonomous vehicles. I remember stories from folks who've worked on Tesla and said they'll never ride in a vehicle that is under autonomous control. Because of what they've seen/know is going on behind the scenes.
That said, I barely trust my toaster to toast bread without supervision. No way am I trusting my vehicle to not Blue Screen of Death or Hal9000 at the worst possible moment if I put it fully in charge.Ā
Itās hard because I also donāt trust the person that cut me off on my commute home this week with a literal physical book in hand reading.
I personally think cars will never be fully autonomous, but will have autonomous features that will increase safety, like automatic stopping, lane detection, etc.
I understand this sentiment. I work in technology and definitely have seen the limitations of it. That said, I've arrived at a different conclusion. I see how often humans and I personally make mistakes while driving. I think we can look at the data and see that computers will have errors much less frequently. It is scary to give up the control but statistically I do believe that it will be safer once it is released and ready for prime time. Even if I do end up dying because of a computer glitch, I'm rolling the dice every time I get in the car anyway and I'd rather have better odds.
If we ever start to actually value safety over profit in the technology development sector, then I might think about starting to trust my life to technology.
Thatās the thing that convinces me.
I think *Iām* a better driver than autopilot. But have you seen how many psycho drivers are out there? Iād love for them to just be in autonomous vehicles, instead
I see way too much crazy shit on the roads thatās entirely due to human error/recklessness
Yup, I hear ya. Most people think the same way.
Iāve owned 26 vehicles and never made an insurance claim, so it took my work in research some time to convince me.
Teslas are crap because the company is run by a moron who has deliberately muddied the waters about what "self-driving" is. Regulators have repeatedly said that referring to their cars as "autopilot" and "full self driving" are misleading. Teslas aren't capable of the level of autonomy that Waymos are.
I think this one is actually happening. There are already level 3 autonomous vehicles on the road in the US (this is the level where a driver is not legally required to be paying any attention to the road). Once the tech proliferates there won't even really be a choice because the dramatically lower rate of collisions will drive the insurance market which will make it prohibitively expensive to manual drive.
I think that shift may well take decades, but sometimes the market moves fast.
Humanity stayed indoors during winter or died at one point. I think weāll figure out inclement weather self-driving in no time. Even if we couldnāt figure out a direct solution, whatever network the cars are on can have a āactive driver only zoneā where new traffic signs would be designed (could be a digital warning in car for dynamic assignment) and non CDL vehicles would not use these routes.
Who cares. Overall thereās bad weather maybe 15% of the time. Large majority of traffic is not in bum fuck Alaska getting snow storms all the time.
People can drive themselves when thereās bad weather and have cars drive the other 85% of the time. Big deal
Parts of the northern continental have gotten 5 to 10 times more snow than anywhere in Alaska easily. Especially with the lake effect.
Iād love self driving cars for my commute -most- of the year, Iād just need the ground clearance and manual control for a couple months.
Itāll work. Just not for everyone.
Nah not me, I like driving. If they are gonna make it like that why should we pay monthly? Use our tax money to fund something like that if everyone has to use it.
Surely not āall of those places.ā Hamtramck, MI for example is quite affordable and extremely walkable. My house, also in MI, where I can walk to pretty much everything I need, was cheaper than most exurban new builds around here.
It'll come, then there'll be a huge accident or series of accidents caused by it, the corporations will have to pay huge settlements and the public trust in it will vanish for a long time.
I would be fine with autonomous driving, but there is no chance in hell I would do a ācar monthly subscriptionā. I HATE the āown nothing and be happyā mentally.
With things like heated seats subscriptions, software as a service, and other things like that, I worry that future generations literally will not be able to own anything beyond basic household items.
As long as the ones that like it can still drive I donāt really care if autonomous vehicles happen. They are shit but whatever. The day I canāt drive anymore is the day I jump off a bridge.
I've been buying daily driver cars to haul my ass around from the 80s and 90s for the last 15 years.
I plan to keep doing that for the foreseeable future.
You'll be riding around in your iPhone on wheels.
I'll continue to be an eyesore in my 1991 Chevy S10.
Ultimately no, I still rather drive myself as that is a form of independence and freedom. Think about it, you want a machine controlling where you go, how fast you go, etc? Someone controls the autonomous car, so you are sacrificing yet another freedom of yours and at the mercy of someone else.
The only reason I can see autonomous cars being beneficial is reducing traffic. If all vehicles are autonomous then we wouldn't have to worry about people congesting highways from those speeding and those who don't know how to drive properly
ofc we are. youāre naiĆÆve if you didnāt already see this coming. i once got judged for saying that i like driving when i was discussing these cars with others. itās never going to happen. stop acting like people are awful just because they like to drive themselves and donāt trust fucking robots!
You'll own nothing and be happy, be careful what you wish for, may end up getting it. EU is implementing controls on cars now. its coming. You'll get your autonomous fleet, just don't ask at what cost.
Ahhh Iāll likely be outnumbered w this opinion but Iād love to see it go the opposite way. Remove screens, actually ticket for cell phone use while driving. Improve public transit, but personal vehicles should come w a sense of responsibility and accountability that comes with learning that skill and privilege. I think weāre trading all kinds of values to convenience and sensors and Ai, while simultaneously complaining about how those values are vanishing from society. Even as a pedestrianā used to be taught to look both ways before crossing the road. Now youāre lucky if you witness someone crossing without staring at their phone
I've been working in autonomous vehicles for 7 years as an executive. I've been using Waymo (but for clarity don't work for them) on a regular basis for over a year, and find it safe and reliable. You might be surprised to find it's actually pretty boring, they're very cautious and being in an Uber with some random driver is reliably a more harrowing experience. They've been testing on the road since 2008/9, so the timeline is long. I disagree with the automotive engineer above who says all infrastructure must be improved to get there, it's not all or nothing, and the successful players will be able to operate around human factors (human operators and pedestrians). I also disagree AVs can't navigate country roads or snow or other already-solved problems, the hardest part is variable human factors, we are unpredictable and motivated by things a machine doesn't understand. In that way, a dense city is the ideal place to test.
The biggest hurdle right now is shitty companies poisoning public sentiment- we've certainly seen it with Tesla and to an extent, Cruise. Pushing to be first to market, when the product isn't ready, fueled by corporate greed. Tesla doesn't use lidar, and it's widely known and accepted that cameras are not sufficient for full autonomy. Tesla has killed a few hundred people since they released FSD, a new NTSB report just came out this week on this very topic. I fail to understand why they haven't been compelled to recall that software. Cruise, though using lidar, wasn't ready for release, and they've since had their operating permit revoked. I never got in a Cruise vehicle for the period they were operating, though I had access, it was clear to me it wasn't ready.
How can you say that? Elon Musk said that full self driving Tesla's are only a year away. In fact, he's been saying that for 10 years now. And don't forget when he said this in 2019 - "the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year."
Elon Musk said the current iterations of Teslas were fully self driving, and that was a lie.
He said we would have a colony on Mars by this year.
He's not good at telling the truth. He's good at hyping up investors and syphoning tax dollars out of his companies that take advantage of subsidies. Like a greedy cowardly leech.
it takes time to perfect the software programming and they need time to get the legislation worked out and the insurance companies would need to work it out on who is liable etc.
Waymo right now has had a decent amount of success in sf without huge incidents. And they keep increasing the number of rides they do every month. Overtime they will only get better, probably will take a very long time to go mainstream
I live in Phx and they are pretty big. My car was in the shop for 8 weeks due to a really unique accident that shredded my undercarriage. My insurance for a rental car ran out around week 6. I rode waymos everyday for $30 some dollars a day. It was honestly fun and I could snooze on my way home from the bar or work. The car would say hi when I got in and play my music from my phone. I also only waited 3 to 6 minutes for my ride and didnt have to tip or talk to a driver.
I think itās coming but slowly.
Judging by how Waymo works (the driverless taxis in SF and LA) I think basically theyāll just map the roads in certain areas like cities and allow for autonomous driving in certain zones first. Then someday have it work everywhere.
I would fucking love to never drive again.
We are way further away from fully self-driving than elon would have you believe, but it is such an interesting and scientifically possible idea that it will almost certainly happen eventually. Idk when, but like, we still don't have a scientific solution for antigravity or unrestrained personal propulsion. Cars just need adequate smarts and safety to go autonomous, and we're not quite there yet with the tech
I donāt think itās coming soon. One major hurdle is that computers canāt really think or generalize. There are an infinite number of variables a car might encounter even going the same route daily. For example, in the middle of autumn a wet leaf might get stuck to a stop sign. A human can tell itās still a stop sign but a computer canāt. Even if you take a pic of that sign and tell the computer, āyes this is a stop sign,ā it will get confused again the next day when the leaf is stuck in a different position and obscuring a different part of the sign. I think what you need is a true generalized AI that is capable of actually learning the way a human can. I donāt think weāre very close to that.
There is no financial incentive for people flying on jetpacks but you can fire everyone who is in the transportation industryĀ with autonomous vehicles
More likely we are going to get hosed of this in our life time, unless there's a breakthrough in autonomous technology or a massive infrastructure rehaul is implemented.
The "AI" or computing that we have now is no where near up to snuff for fully autonomous driving and keeping track of all the variables going on to drive with safety in mind.
Waymo while it looks impressive, is basically on an invisible track. Though, that is one possibility of having autonomous driving is by having dedicated autonomous car highways or streets. That's probably not going to happen though since US infrastructure is in the ass end of terrible.
So that really only leaves room for a technology breakthrough, which you might as well be willing lightening to strike for that to happen in our life time. That's not even mentioning the capitalist dystopia though that many have already mentioned. Why would you give our corporate overlords even more power to control and charge us up the ass for services we can already do ourselves?
Physics kinda hosed us on the jet packs tbf; there's just no substance safe enough to handle that can also make enough thrust to take off vertically. And if you can, it'll only be for a few seconds.
Until they figure out whoās liable when mistakes happen. If youāre not driving then how can you be liable? But if the car company is liable, then the costs of using autonomous will remain out of all but the most wealthy hands.
At the absolute least, can we stop getting millions of articles whenever one of these cars makes a mistake? They should always be compared to human drivers, and even today Iām pretty sure theyāre equal or better.
I will never use an autonomous vehicle. I live in a large tech city with a large number of drivers who already use auto pilot features and you can always tell which drivers have the features engaged because the cars act in aā¦it isnāt dangerous per se, but itās not normal human responses to changes in road conditions, and it requires other drivers to adapt and them and itās infuriating. Itās a problem in certain weather conditions and during traffic changes on freeways and it causes a lot of frustration because you have to now accommodate the driving habits of humans and machines and theyāre both different. It also makes the autonomous vehicle drivers complacent (Iāve had one accident and numerous near misses on surface streets, all with Tesla drivers).
If you arenāt comfortable driving, take transit. Thatās a public boon for everyone instead of getting an autonomous vehicle that only helps you.
Considering all the urban areas are trying to be less reliant on cars and neglecting to expand infrastructure, I doubt they will allow autonomous driving on a large scale. If autonomous driving becomes widespread local regulations will ban it.
Technically some of the autonomous vehicles can already drive themselves, I think some company just hit whatever 3rd level they're calling it ("tier 3 or level 3 or something") where the vehicle can drive itself with no driver involvement, though it doesn't work in inclement weather conditions.
I think we're getting there it's going to be the political willpower to allow them to go full driverless.
Having spent decades working in software development and seeing the slipshod processes and how programmer bias and lack of basic risk assessment is reflected in products, I wouldn't be caught dead in a self-driver. Remember when the Tesla could only recognize a pedestrian when they were in a crosswalk, to "cut down on processing load"? I give Teslas wide berth.
Theyāll never let it be truly autonomous as that would put the liability for accidents on the car company and not the individual. Car companies have lobbyists and average people dont.
Yes. Autonomous vehicles will never be a thing, at least not in the way people imagine. There's no way an autonomous vehicle can make the executive decision making a human can. What you want is cheap and abundant public transportation.
No. This issue with autonomous vehicles right now is that we don't have infrastructure for them. Everything needs to be self-contained, and these vehicles need to basically be human to be able to account for everything a human driver does. It's a very tough challenge.
Fast forward a few years and there will be sensor and data sharing standards that ease things. Your car with broadcast braking to vehicles around it, intersections will have sensors and cameras that AVs can use, services like Google Maps will have data banks of data about road conditions useful to AVs, etc. Although this is not a quick point to get to, it would actually make the technology significantly cheaper, easier and safer.
I think we just need that phase 2 to come before this becomes mainstream.
Uh duh- itās another pipe dream. Just read a little. Fusion is also not 10 years away. Materials science needs to catch up with some of yāallās wishful thinking.
I would need to find out who is in charge of it before I could give a yea or nay.
A regulated arm of the Department of Transportation (Or other equivalent in non-US countries)? Sign me the fuck up, I hate driving.
Samuel Snootypants III who bought the startup with blood money and will happily strand you in the middle of nowhere if he thinks it would generate two extra cents of profit margin? No thanks, I'll drive.
My new Subaru could technically drive the interstate for me with the lane assist, vehicle detection, and cruise control. Problem is that it yells at me if my hands are off the wheel for a bit of time and will then disable lane assist.
Only way we get hosed is if regulators tie things up needlessly with too much red tape. Iāve had Tesla fsd beta for 2 years now and with the most recent v12 updates itās on another level. Donāt let anyone tell you otherwise, weāre *this close* to not needing to drive again. At least on highways and less complex areas. I have a six year old daughter. I guarantee, unless weāre hosed with needless red tape, she will never actually need to manually drive a car in her life.
Jet packs were never viable. Self Driving will exist in looser forms like it has for years, you'll see better and better cruise control and even things like the Mercedes level 3 self driving. I think true sci-fi self-driving is many more years away than anyone working on it will admit.
The only thing we are missing is an open-source communication network for cars to run on so that every driverless vehicle knows where other nearby vehicles are.
Turns out making true autonomous vehicles that mix with human drivers and pedestrians requires AGI. Its an incredibly difficult problem to solve. If we could as society agree to end human driving and make every car computer controlled we could do it without AGI, but we aren't doing that so its probably not going to happen for another 15 - 20 years, if civilization continues long enough to crack AGI.
Mercedes is about to launch the first car with Level 3 autonomous driving - under 40mph, select highways, daytime only....its a big step forward but there's quite a ways to go for it to be full self driving.
Have you driven a car with hands free driving? That's pretty awesome! GM/Ford products and I'm sure some others have it, it is pretty sweet but doesn't work if you are wearing sunglasses as cameras need to see that your eyes are open - but you can drive without touching the steering wheel for the most part. For long highway drives it is awesome
Look up autonomous vehicles trying to navigate when thereās a cop directing traffic. Complete, total failure.
Trains. Guys, we have trains. What do we think is simpler: making a robot that can interpret every possible environmental encounter, while operating a deadly machine, or ā¦ build a train. The issues that come with that (distance to/from train from home work, accessibility, etc) are *very well understood*. But no, letās take *checks notes* a racist south african mining mogulās word for it that cars should drive themselves, obvious safety issues be damned.
Nope. Not because I need to drive but because it will become a monopoly and will gouge every cent out of people trying to get to work.
Its not an if, its a when.
I am a scientist and wasted 2 years on a startup in this domain.
it failed because big companies werenāt interested in making it workā¦
Itās a shitshow. Thatās what it is.
I work in the industry, the tech is impressive but the legal and liability stuff is hard to tackle. The tech will continuously improve but will take awhile for it to be adopted mainstream.
Fuck yeah, thats how i am too.
I had to take uber for for 2 months and i got 10 hours a week of work done bc i was able to just do work i stead of pay attention to road. The amount of life we miss out in bc of driving is fucking insane
Nah, this will happen. The productivity boost is too great and the technology is pretty much there following the recent focus on AI. Once someone finally cracks it, it'll be everywhere inside of 10 years. That part will be great.
Where it's going to go south is suddenly employers are going to start expecting employees to work during that time. Guarantee.
Sorry but you're getting hosed - despite what our car-salesman-in-chief continues to promise you, it's not coming in your lifetime.
That said, you will be able to get subscription services of mobility so you won't have to drive, they will just be partially automated or driven by another human. But isn't that almost as good from your POV?
Iād love to never own a car but have one available anytime that was driven automatically. No repairs maintenance lease insurance etc. no worries about a car. Hell I could drink and ride more. Win win win
Absolutely not. Do you comprehend the full ramifications of what comes with all cars on the road being autonomous?
-Auto makers can recall a car on demand
-Insurance can recall a car on demand
-Police can recall a car on demand
-Your employer can recall a car on demand
-Locking you out of your car for missing payment
-Automatic shut down for traffic infractions
I'm not sure. I kinda like to be in control of the car but that's only because the number of idiot drivers in my area is high. The neighboring city to me is in the US top 10 worst drivers list.
My argument:
The individual would need to have full and complete control and privacy and the consequences would need to meet the severity of the consequences real or potential of utilization of tech. No centralized oversight or requiring the vehicles to be connected to function. There should be no way for any external or third party other than the owner and those explicitly authorized, when it comes to any of the vehicles connectivity or data without any required telemetry, or otherwise.
Further expounding:
You will always have those who value independence and being independent of the system, while making use of its benefits, privacy, and security. Unless the individual has sole control of the autonomous vehicle, and isnāt subject to ANY sort of remote admin override, and being able to use the system without being tracked in any way,and manufacturers provide full control to the individual. Further, there would need to be sufficient personal responsibility tied to the use and ownership of the vehicle that is commensurate with the former inherent rights previously mentioned.
I've been ready to never drive again so I use public transit š¤·
I just want streetcars to take off again. They retrofit into existing roads. Electric without needing batteries or charging. Streetcars for high traffic routes, extensive bike lanes and sidewalks, and buses for everything else could take so many cars off the road even in suburbs. You still have some cul de sac issues in suburbs even then, but it could make a massive improvement and newer development could be better laid out. Bonus points for commuter rail between suburban and urban areas
Did you know: Streetcar companies ended up doing some community development to encourage people to ride on weekends, including building amusement parks. > One of the first trolley parks in Pennsylvania was Kennywood constructed in 1899 by the Monongahela Street Railway Company. > Pennsylvania Trolley Museum - *A Ride to Remember: Trolleys and the Fair*
Many main roads in cities in North America have streetcar spacing already. This is because many places had street cars, until car companies came, bought em them up, stripped them down and removed them. So in a sense, we already have the infrastructure needed for street cars. Bring street cars back!
The only winning move is not to play.
There is virtually no public transit where Iām at so no option but to drive
If that's something you want, vote with your feet. From a former rural southerner who fled to Chicago lol
Yeah everyone is all talking about autonomous driving and Iām all like, have you heard of the bus?
I say this over and over again: a critical mass of autonomous vehicles on the road is indistinguishable from a train with extra steps
Automotive engineer here: Yes. Hereās what would actually need to be in place for autonomous vehicles to operate on the roads safely -every car on the road has to have CV2X (cellular vehicle to infrastructure connection). itās a modem that talks to every other vehicle, street lights and pedestrian phones -every cell phone will have to have CV2x enabled on their phones (similar to having Bluetooth turned on) -every street light will need to be a āsmartā street light The combination of those things is what allows cars to detect every other car, detect when a street light is green/red, and detect when a pedestrian or biker is crossing a street. Important to note: NO car without this capability can be on the roads. Thatās going to be the biggest hurdle besides infrastructure in street lights bc many people have cars 10-20 years old and wonāt be able to buy a brand new car. China has already installed all this infrastructure in their street lights etc, and mandated all cars and manufacturers include this. In the US, this is about 30-40 years away from being possible.
I'm skeptical of us ever doing any large infrastructure project ever again, at least in a timely manner and in a way that isn't like half grifting.
Yes agreed seeing how high speed rail has failed to materialize and weāre 50 years behind China and India. So all that to say - autonomous vehicles are unlikely to ever be a reality in the US, but if they were itād be 40-50 years from now minimum. Teslas āfull self driveā is literally just fancy cruise control lmao
Thank you, Elon.
Don't be such a doomer. It'll be finished in time for us to be another 50 years behind the times, as per usual.
I suppose, if we do get it in 30 to 40 years, at least we can ride autonomous vehicles when we are too old to be driving safely or just don't care to.
Exactly lol but Elon is insane saying itās already here/will be here soon. Robotaxis are a complete scam lol
Yep. This. Not to mention all the legal and liability hurdles that come with it. What if the car gets hacked? As Americans there will likely be a revolt about freedom when making said switch. And there will likely have to be some sort of car subscription to keep all cars up to date in order for them to work together properly. That person who still has IOS10 will likely also cause traffic accidents because they refused to update their car. Will that be a fault of the manufacturer? Or the user?
Yeah, my take is 100% that we have already been hosed. I VIVIDLY remember reading a 3-2-1 contact magazine in the 90s that said that by the year 2000, an 8 year old would be able to drive a car alone because of autonomous vehicles (I remember this so strongly because I turned 16 in the year 2000 and at the time it made me mad that I would be able to drive for real just when you didn't have to anymore).
Not going to happen.
I'm gonna keep my old cars to spite this system
LOL! Iām keeping my old cars bc Iām broke hahah. But in all reality, the government would need to provide a major tax incentive for this like āturn in your old car and you get a $10k rebate on your taxesā similar to how theyāre getting some people to add solar panels to their homes.
There would never be enough incentive for me to give up my vehicles for self driving. Unless gasoline becomes so rare that it's impossible to get, I'll always have my older unconnected cars.
You are way off. For starters being an automotive engineer is not the proper field to evaluate the likelihood of autonomous driving. This is an AI problem not an automotive engineering problem. Your solution to the problem creates a world where you could program the computer in a deterministic way. That will never happen. The cost is too high and the reward is too low. AI can bypass all those constraints and the narrow AI needed to drive a car will solve this problem a lot sooner than you think.
I guess this is one of the reasons for EU to get rid of older vehicles by shutting down support/updates through 3g
I was for it before I now knew. That all sounds like way too much extra taxpayer expense, for a non essential car feature.
Yeah. 30-40 years and having public support or bipartisan support, maybe? CV2X sounds like it might actually make it safe, then you would really need government regulations for how all autonomous vehicles react to various issues/events. Not one company decides theyre going to fuck around with xyz while everyone else uses ___. I doubt we'll see it due to: -The U.S. doesnt even want to spend on current infrastructure (even when its failing). -A lot of people will oppose it due to just not liking self driving for varying legitimate or nonsensical reasons. -A new self driving vehicle (like you said) is a lot more expensive than some cheap, used, work vehicle. On that note, if a country were to have fully autonomous vehicles. May as well just treat them like busses. Have a company maintain them and just charge people a fee. No more insurance, rent it for trips or treat it like an uber app daily.
Wow really appreciate the insight. Is that 40 years mostly due to eventually getting all cars on road equipped, mandatory for new cars then 10/15 for old cars to fall off the roads. Or the US is so slow to update infrastructure. Each state and municipality has its own unique infrastructure and laws. Makes me think of the challenges of updating our own electoral grid.
No problem!! The 40 years is based on getting all old cars off the road + infrastructure. The US is pretty bad at mass infrastructure projects (like high speed rail) so having to update every street light in the country would take awhile. I think the idea is theyāll pilot in a few cities first āsmart citiesā like Ann Arbor that commit to putting the infrastructure in and then roll it out city by city and state by state. So even if say California does it, but none else does, you could only use it in California
That will probably never happen in areas like mine especially if the power grid shuts down. There would be fights here over it. I can see it happening.
Yep exactly ! Thatās why Iām saying this isnāt happening any time soon and probably not ever. However, ambulances are able to connect to street lights with a kinda back door method, while Police cars arenāt able to change a red light green. The process the US went through for ambulances to turn red lights green would be a similar process to rolling out smart street lights. The big 3 car companies basically shut down their autonomous vehicle devisions bc the infrastructure is such a long way off.
I was surprised by and dead wrong regarding the average age of vehicles. With cars becoming harder to service, too much technology and actually pieces in new cars all being connected. Like you canāt just slip your stereo out any more have to disassemble the entire front counsels. I assumed more people just buying new cars when once a simple fix is now 5K. Looks like average age is 12.5 and growing every year. [Average Age Of Cars On US Roads Keeps Rising To Record Levels](https://www.motor1.com/news/667459/average-age-cars-us-2023/). So yeah getting all the old cars off is going to take some time and harder every year if trends continue. Itās not a software issue itās a new device of hardware that would have to be installed if Iām hearing you correctly. The infrastructure issue is maddening in the US. I absolutely agree it would be a shit show. One of the more frustrating things about a constitutional republic of separate states. Every thing is so much more inefficient. There is just no unity currently, like the highway system or railroads connecting the entire country was celebrated and viewed as a US triumph of technological and engendering. Interesting stuff.
Yes everything you said is accurate!!! Getting old cars off the road isnāt as big of a bottleneck as the infrastructure portion. Iād basically think of CV2X like a new version of Bluetooth. Eventually, Bluetooth was rolled out on every phone and new cars, but old cars donāt have it. CV2X in a car hardware wise is basically 1 modem + a few antennas. For a street light itās a bunch of sensors/a modem, and for phones itās just like turning on Bluetooth so just a software update. Itād also require some interesting data laws bc for a car to detect you, itād need to know where you are by your phone, and be connected to it while maintaining data security.
Sensors and camera on AVās can get this data without having a connection. Detecting red/green light is actually a pretty simple problem vs many other AV issues.
Yes detecting red/green light is already available to a certain extent in ambulances so they can change a red light to green. I think the main missing piece is how to detect pedestrians and bikers, especially if they arenāt at a crosswalk.
Theyāre all detected by the cameras and also Lidar and Radar. If you look at the cruise and waymo cars thereās cameras and sensor all over. Thereās instances of people trying to stop an AV by putting a cone in front of it. And it will stop because it sees the cone. The computer vision tech has been around. If your iPhone can scan your face for id check then scanning for a biker or a person is doable.
I think this is more viable since it is already slowly creeping in. With things like "lane assist" and other warning sensors. Several companies have shown that autonomous vehicles work. Even if they have issues so do us humans that are distracted. I'm looking forward to it because it will improve traffic efficiency and cut down on accidents. Every day I see people sit at green lights playing on their phones. Or they slow down to look at an accident. Not saying autonomous vehicles will be perfect but it can be so much better than how we are driving.
Like merging on the highway as an actual zipper. I once heard in heavy traffic if a personās spills coffee on them selves and breaks hard. That can reverberate back for 45 minutes in traffic slow downs.
I'm a trucker. I watch these jackwagon assholes change lanes constantly on a major highway backup. It slows everyone down. It causes an accordion effect as every driver wants to be "first" to stop.
Hahah jack wagons! I should substitute that for ājamokes.ā Exactly pick a lane thatās moving at your desired speed and set it and forget it.
Check out Waymo!! First autonomous vehicle thatās like Uber!
I mean, would you rather a drunk person be drove home by a self driving car or drive themselves home?
How drunk? Seriously, the idea of a drunk person backstopping the current generation of self driving is pretty scary. I feel like the self driving car could get the drunk person into a situation and then expect them to step in, and it all goes to shit. My experiences are with the last five years of the Tesla model 3 with all the bells and whistles. Every update is a new iteration of joy and mild terror. Even four-way stop signs provide a moment to reflect on just how far we still need to go. Meanwhile, construction on the interstate? You better have a sober driver ready to take over. I think this is going to continue to get better. I think that the features that people are adding can make driving much safer already by assisting drivers. I think itās all good stuff. But. I also think we are at least a decade away from the kind of self driving car where Iām willing to send it out with a drunk or a child or some other incompetent person as the only occupant
It'll be viable but likely never happen unless changes are made to liability. You'll have a kid jump out of nowhere in front of a car and get killed and the car manufacturer will be sued for $100m. Not to mention how we even program in the trolley problem.
I found out yesterday about the Subaru eyeball monitor thing! Holy shit!
you know whats nice? when a speed limit is 60km but the drivers are all comfortable at 70. will the autonomous cars learn to flow with real people? definitely not. gone will be the human culture of driving. even more staring at phones and disconected from each other. doesnt sound ideal to me.
Statically theyāre already better than the average human driver, but it will take more than that to get the public to trust them
Iād rather drive then give my corporate landlords more control.
Iāve seen how the general population drives. I rather it be autonomous.
People really forget how objectively dangerous driving is. If youāre in your late teens to late 20ās you are statistically most likely to die in the car. Weāve adapted pretty well but our eyes and brains are not made to operate at these speeds. Even if autonomous vehicles make mistakes itāll still save thousands of lives every year. Society has accepted the risk of disfigurement and death since itās necessary to function in the modern world but autonomous driving would be a huge game changer. Plus it would alleviate a ton of traffic. A lot of stop and go traffic is the result of people merging improperly, changing lanes unnecessarily, tailgating, etc.
I feel like Autonomous driving has the potential to have the single largest impact on lowering both traffic and accidents, but most people feel like itās āgiving up controlā. Iām not sure what exactly is enjoyable about sitting in traffic.. If I want to feel in control of a car, Iād take it off roading or to a track.
The problem with autonomous driving is who watches the watchman. If all cars in a city operate off a single system all it'd take would be one bad actor, say a foreign hacker, to cause a catastrophe.
Same for the airline industry. But we make it work. We tackled the problem
Sure, and the same risk is present now with the systems that control traffic lights and other related networks. Iām not saying the risk isnāt real, Iād rather see support for autonomous driving go up along with investment protecting that infrastructure. We donāt necessarily have to have one without the other.
Hold up on your statistics. Statistically younger people get into more car crashes does not equate to statistically youāre more likely to crash if youāre young. (Throwing a random number) if 60% of young people get into a car crash, that does not mean thereās a 60% chance you will crash if youāre young. It means that 60% of young people are idiots and donāt pay enough attention. Thereās not the same level of risk for all drivers. Not all drivers are created equal.
What he's saying is that the leading cause of death of people in their late teens in the US is car accidents. The single leading cause of death. * Motor vehicle crashes are the No. 1 leading cause of death for people ages 13 to 19. * Teen drivers between 16 and 19 are nearly 3 times more likely to die in a car crash than drivers 20 and up.
If it makes you feel better it would eventually destroy the auto insurance industry. Once most cars are autonomous then accidents will be incredibly rare and nobody will be willing to pay these absurd premiums
We need more protections from corporate want-to-be overlords and thatās a whole other conversation. I agree that I donāt want to be in an autonomous car that is programmed for the bottom line.
I would go the Linux route. Own everything, but program it myself.
I don't trust autonomous vehicles. I remember stories from folks who've worked on Tesla and said they'll never ride in a vehicle that is under autonomous control. Because of what they've seen/know is going on behind the scenes. That said, I barely trust my toaster to toast bread without supervision. No way am I trusting my vehicle to not Blue Screen of Death or Hal9000 at the worst possible moment if I put it fully in charge.Ā
Itās hard because I also donāt trust the person that cut me off on my commute home this week with a literal physical book in hand reading. I personally think cars will never be fully autonomous, but will have autonomous features that will increase safety, like automatic stopping, lane detection, etc.
HAL, open the car door and let me out. HAL!!
"I'm sorry Dave, but I can't let you do that."
I understand this sentiment. I work in technology and definitely have seen the limitations of it. That said, I've arrived at a different conclusion. I see how often humans and I personally make mistakes while driving. I think we can look at the data and see that computers will have errors much less frequently. It is scary to give up the control but statistically I do believe that it will be safer once it is released and ready for prime time. Even if I do end up dying because of a computer glitch, I'm rolling the dice every time I get in the car anyway and I'd rather have better odds.
If we ever start to actually value safety over profit in the technology development sector, then I might think about starting to trust my life to technology.
If it makes any difference, you can add my anecdote to the pile: I work in the industry and trust autopilot. Itās far better than humans on average.
Thatās the thing that convinces me. I think *Iām* a better driver than autopilot. But have you seen how many psycho drivers are out there? Iād love for them to just be in autonomous vehicles, instead I see way too much crazy shit on the roads thatās entirely due to human error/recklessness
Yup, I hear ya. Most people think the same way. Iāve owned 26 vehicles and never made an insurance claim, so it took my work in research some time to convince me.
A Tesla just killed somebody in Washington State. Tesla's are literally the most dangerous car there is.
Teslas are crap because the company is run by a moron who has deliberately muddied the waters about what "self-driving" is. Regulators have repeatedly said that referring to their cars as "autopilot" and "full self driving" are misleading. Teslas aren't capable of the level of autonomy that Waymos are.
I think this one is actually happening. There are already level 3 autonomous vehicles on the road in the US (this is the level where a driver is not legally required to be paying any attention to the road). Once the tech proliferates there won't even really be a choice because the dramatically lower rate of collisions will drive the insurance market which will make it prohibitively expensive to manual drive. I think that shift may well take decades, but sometimes the market moves fast.
The tech is already at L4 and has been running in selected cities and nighttime
Agreed. Donāt know why you are being downvoted.
because anything that isn't miserable, depressed doomerism gets downvoted on this sub
L3 just got approved at low speeds on consumer cars. L4 already exists and can be used by consumers in test areas.
As a wheelchair user, who can't drive) I would absolutely LOVE autonomous cars!!!
I donāt think those will work well commuting through 20ā snow drifted country roads at 2 am. All for it in the city though!
Humanity stayed indoors during winter or died at one point. I think weāll figure out inclement weather self-driving in no time. Even if we couldnāt figure out a direct solution, whatever network the cars are on can have a āactive driver only zoneā where new traffic signs would be designed (could be a digital warning in car for dynamic assignment) and non CDL vehicles would not use these routes.
Who cares. Overall thereās bad weather maybe 15% of the time. Large majority of traffic is not in bum fuck Alaska getting snow storms all the time. People can drive themselves when thereās bad weather and have cars drive the other 85% of the time. Big deal
Parts of the northern continental have gotten 5 to 10 times more snow than anywhere in Alaska easily. Especially with the lake effect. Iād love self driving cars for my commute -most- of the year, Iād just need the ground clearance and manual control for a couple months. Itāll work. Just not for everyone.
Nah not me, I like driving. If they are gonna make it like that why should we pay monthly? Use our tax money to fund something like that if everyone has to use it.
I wouldnāt hold my breath. Iād suggest just moving somewhere walkable with decent public transit.
All of those places cost exponentially more to live in than where I live though. Not everyone can afford to just move to a major city
Surely not āall of those places.ā Hamtramck, MI for example is quite affordable and extremely walkable. My house, also in MI, where I can walk to pretty much everything I need, was cheaper than most exurban new builds around here.
And not everyone wants to live in a city. I like having a yard with trees, something you can't always have in the city.
The thought of never driving my Integra again breaks my heart. I Totally can not understand wanting to not drive at all ever.
It's definitely coming, but will undoubtedly be another subscription service
With Iām sure dynamic pricing
Fuck no. I live rurally and there's no way I want some corporate fleet of auto-drivers controlling where and how I get places.
It'll come, then there'll be a huge accident or series of accidents caused by it, the corporations will have to pay huge settlements and the public trust in it will vanish for a long time.
It's already happened before. Remember how long it took to put out a fire in one of these cars?
I would be fine with autonomous driving, but there is no chance in hell I would do a ācar monthly subscriptionā. I HATE the āown nothing and be happyā mentally. With things like heated seats subscriptions, software as a service, and other things like that, I worry that future generations literally will not be able to own anything beyond basic household items.
Going to be a long time before there are autonomous cars on my dirt roads.
As long as the ones that like it can still drive I donāt really care if autonomous vehicles happen. They are shit but whatever. The day I canāt drive anymore is the day I jump off a bridge.
Fuck no. This is how you get iRobot. I want full control of my car at all times and nothing can be shut down without me knowing.
I like riding a motorcycle wayyyy too much to sign on for this lol
I've been buying daily driver cars to haul my ass around from the 80s and 90s for the last 15 years. I plan to keep doing that for the foreseeable future. You'll be riding around in your iPhone on wheels. I'll continue to be an eyesore in my 1991 Chevy S10.
OP I think you were supposed to be born a boomer but the doctor was late.
I'm absolutely sick of everything being a subscription
What if the power grid shuts down? What happens when they all catch fire?
Ya I will not let AI drive for me
Call me a boomer, but I don't want autonomous vehicles.
And take away jobs from 5 million Americans who drive for a living. No thanks, take your robot cars and shove em
Ultimately no, I still rather drive myself as that is a form of independence and freedom. Think about it, you want a machine controlling where you go, how fast you go, etc? Someone controls the autonomous car, so you are sacrificing yet another freedom of yours and at the mercy of someone else. The only reason I can see autonomous cars being beneficial is reducing traffic. If all vehicles are autonomous then we wouldn't have to worry about people congesting highways from those speeding and those who don't know how to drive properly
Personally, I still like my manual transmission car. . . Kinda salty I canāt get a newer equivalent, tbh.
Honestly canāt wait, enjoy driving my old Wrangler from time to time on backroads but for city to city interstate travel give me the pod service.
ofc we are. youāre naiĆÆve if you didnāt already see this coming. i once got judged for saying that i like driving when i was discussing these cars with others. itās never going to happen. stop acting like people are awful just because they like to drive themselves and donāt trust fucking robots!
Yes please. Everyone that doesnāt want to drive needs to not do so and leave the road to the enthusiasts thanks.
You'll own nothing and be happy, be careful what you wish for, may end up getting it. EU is implementing controls on cars now. its coming. You'll get your autonomous fleet, just don't ask at what cost.
I actually enjoy driving my car. Iāll sometimes go for a nice cruise if Iāve got nothing to do.
Ahhh Iāll likely be outnumbered w this opinion but Iād love to see it go the opposite way. Remove screens, actually ticket for cell phone use while driving. Improve public transit, but personal vehicles should come w a sense of responsibility and accountability that comes with learning that skill and privilege. I think weāre trading all kinds of values to convenience and sensors and Ai, while simultaneously complaining about how those values are vanishing from society. Even as a pedestrianā used to be taught to look both ways before crossing the road. Now youāre lucky if you witness someone crossing without staring at their phone
I've been working in autonomous vehicles for 7 years as an executive. I've been using Waymo (but for clarity don't work for them) on a regular basis for over a year, and find it safe and reliable. You might be surprised to find it's actually pretty boring, they're very cautious and being in an Uber with some random driver is reliably a more harrowing experience. They've been testing on the road since 2008/9, so the timeline is long. I disagree with the automotive engineer above who says all infrastructure must be improved to get there, it's not all or nothing, and the successful players will be able to operate around human factors (human operators and pedestrians). I also disagree AVs can't navigate country roads or snow or other already-solved problems, the hardest part is variable human factors, we are unpredictable and motivated by things a machine doesn't understand. In that way, a dense city is the ideal place to test. The biggest hurdle right now is shitty companies poisoning public sentiment- we've certainly seen it with Tesla and to an extent, Cruise. Pushing to be first to market, when the product isn't ready, fueled by corporate greed. Tesla doesn't use lidar, and it's widely known and accepted that cameras are not sufficient for full autonomy. Tesla has killed a few hundred people since they released FSD, a new NTSB report just came out this week on this very topic. I fail to understand why they haven't been compelled to recall that software. Cruise, though using lidar, wasn't ready for release, and they've since had their operating permit revoked. I never got in a Cruise vehicle for the period they were operating, though I had access, it was clear to me it wasn't ready.
I'm still waiting on my hoverboard from bttf
Idk why you ever thought it had legs to stand on
I love driving. I don't think it's ever going to go away completely.
I think we are 15 years out from having full self driving. Probably 20 for it to be accessible in non brand new cars for normal people.
How can you say that? Elon Musk said that full self driving Tesla's are only a year away. In fact, he's been saying that for 10 years now. And don't forget when he said this in 2019 - "the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year."
Elon Musk said the current iterations of Teslas were fully self driving, and that was a lie. He said we would have a colony on Mars by this year. He's not good at telling the truth. He's good at hyping up investors and syphoning tax dollars out of his companies that take advantage of subsidies. Like a greedy cowardly leech.
It will be here soon, except for maybe in the most rural areas
it takes time to perfect the software programming and they need time to get the legislation worked out and the insurance companies would need to work it out on who is liable etc.
Waymo right now has had a decent amount of success in sf without huge incidents. And they keep increasing the number of rides they do every month. Overtime they will only get better, probably will take a very long time to go mainstream
I live in Phx and they are pretty big. My car was in the shop for 8 weeks due to a really unique accident that shredded my undercarriage. My insurance for a rental car ran out around week 6. I rode waymos everyday for $30 some dollars a day. It was honestly fun and I could snooze on my way home from the bar or work. The car would say hi when I got in and play my music from my phone. I also only waited 3 to 6 minutes for my ride and didnt have to tip or talk to a driver.
Id settle for more trains and buses.
I think itās coming but slowly. Judging by how Waymo works (the driverless taxis in SF and LA) I think basically theyāll just map the roads in certain areas like cities and allow for autonomous driving in certain zones first. Then someday have it work everywhere. I would fucking love to never drive again.
Elon seems a bit distracted by his social media company to work on this of late.
We are way further away from fully self-driving than elon would have you believe, but it is such an interesting and scientifically possible idea that it will almost certainly happen eventually. Idk when, but like, we still don't have a scientific solution for antigravity or unrestrained personal propulsion. Cars just need adequate smarts and safety to go autonomous, and we're not quite there yet with the tech
I donāt think itās coming soon. One major hurdle is that computers canāt really think or generalize. There are an infinite number of variables a car might encounter even going the same route daily. For example, in the middle of autumn a wet leaf might get stuck to a stop sign. A human can tell itās still a stop sign but a computer canāt. Even if you take a pic of that sign and tell the computer, āyes this is a stop sign,ā it will get confused again the next day when the leaf is stuck in a different position and obscuring a different part of the sign. I think what you need is a true generalized AI that is capable of actually learning the way a human can. I donāt think weāre very close to that.
There is no financial incentive for people flying on jetpacks but you can fire everyone who is in the transportation industryĀ with autonomous vehicles
Yeah, it was always a lie. Just take the train.
When do we get the teleporting so we donāt have to drive or sit in traffic?
Who owes you an autonomous car? Feel free to make your own.
You are getting self driving cars. Jet packs are a horrible idea.
You can pay for FSD, you canāt use it, but you can pay for it. No wonder heās the richest man in the world.
I'm still holding out for flying cars
donāt want to drive ? take a bus
More likely we are going to get hosed of this in our life time, unless there's a breakthrough in autonomous technology or a massive infrastructure rehaul is implemented. The "AI" or computing that we have now is no where near up to snuff for fully autonomous driving and keeping track of all the variables going on to drive with safety in mind. Waymo while it looks impressive, is basically on an invisible track. Though, that is one possibility of having autonomous driving is by having dedicated autonomous car highways or streets. That's probably not going to happen though since US infrastructure is in the ass end of terrible. So that really only leaves room for a technology breakthrough, which you might as well be willing lightening to strike for that to happen in our life time. That's not even mentioning the capitalist dystopia though that many have already mentioned. Why would you give our corporate overlords even more power to control and charge us up the ass for services we can already do ourselves?
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No - this actually has a profit-driven use case so it will absolutely get made.
Physics kinda hosed us on the jet packs tbf; there's just no substance safe enough to handle that can also make enough thrust to take off vertically. And if you can, it'll only be for a few seconds.
Until they figure out whoās liable when mistakes happen. If youāre not driving then how can you be liable? But if the car company is liable, then the costs of using autonomous will remain out of all but the most wealthy hands. At the absolute least, can we stop getting millions of articles whenever one of these cars makes a mistake? They should always be compared to human drivers, and even today Iām pretty sure theyāre equal or better.
How would I go offroading?
I will never use an autonomous vehicle. I live in a large tech city with a large number of drivers who already use auto pilot features and you can always tell which drivers have the features engaged because the cars act in aā¦it isnāt dangerous per se, but itās not normal human responses to changes in road conditions, and it requires other drivers to adapt and them and itās infuriating. Itās a problem in certain weather conditions and during traffic changes on freeways and it causes a lot of frustration because you have to now accommodate the driving habits of humans and machines and theyāre both different. It also makes the autonomous vehicle drivers complacent (Iāve had one accident and numerous near misses on surface streets, all with Tesla drivers). If you arenāt comfortable driving, take transit. Thatās a public boon for everyone instead of getting an autonomous vehicle that only helps you.
Considering all the urban areas are trying to be less reliant on cars and neglecting to expand infrastructure, I doubt they will allow autonomous driving on a large scale. If autonomous driving becomes widespread local regulations will ban it.
I watched a Tesla self drive through a red light into a four way intersection causing a T bone accident right off the freeway.
Technically some of the autonomous vehicles can already drive themselves, I think some company just hit whatever 3rd level they're calling it ("tier 3 or level 3 or something") where the vehicle can drive itself with no driver involvement, though it doesn't work in inclement weather conditions. I think we're getting there it's going to be the political willpower to allow them to go full driverless.
Having spent decades working in software development and seeing the slipshod processes and how programmer bias and lack of basic risk assessment is reflected in products, I wouldn't be caught dead in a self-driver. Remember when the Tesla could only recognize a pedestrian when they were in a crosswalk, to "cut down on processing load"? I give Teslas wide berth.
Theyāll never let it be truly autonomous as that would put the liability for accidents on the car company and not the individual. Car companies have lobbyists and average people dont.
The movie rocketeer had me dreaming as a kid
Yes. Autonomous vehicles will never be a thing, at least not in the way people imagine. There's no way an autonomous vehicle can make the executive decision making a human can. What you want is cheap and abundant public transportation.
No. This issue with autonomous vehicles right now is that we don't have infrastructure for them. Everything needs to be self-contained, and these vehicles need to basically be human to be able to account for everything a human driver does. It's a very tough challenge. Fast forward a few years and there will be sensor and data sharing standards that ease things. Your car with broadcast braking to vehicles around it, intersections will have sensors and cameras that AVs can use, services like Google Maps will have data banks of data about road conditions useful to AVs, etc. Although this is not a quick point to get to, it would actually make the technology significantly cheaper, easier and safer. I think we just need that phase 2 to come before this becomes mainstream.
Uh duh- itās another pipe dream. Just read a little. Fusion is also not 10 years away. Materials science needs to catch up with some of yāallās wishful thinking.
Same here, buddy. I'll actually start pouring money into vacations if we actually get autonomous vehicles.
I would need to find out who is in charge of it before I could give a yea or nay. A regulated arm of the Department of Transportation (Or other equivalent in non-US countries)? Sign me the fuck up, I hate driving. Samuel Snootypants III who bought the startup with blood money and will happily strand you in the middle of nowhere if he thinks it would generate two extra cents of profit margin? No thanks, I'll drive.
My new Subaru could technically drive the interstate for me with the lane assist, vehicle detection, and cruise control. Problem is that it yells at me if my hands are off the wheel for a bit of time and will then disable lane assist.
Only way we get hosed is if regulators tie things up needlessly with too much red tape. Iāve had Tesla fsd beta for 2 years now and with the most recent v12 updates itās on another level. Donāt let anyone tell you otherwise, weāre *this close* to not needing to drive again. At least on highways and less complex areas. I have a six year old daughter. I guarantee, unless weāre hosed with needless red tape, she will never actually need to manually drive a car in her life.
Jet packs were never viable. Self Driving will exist in looser forms like it has for years, you'll see better and better cruise control and even things like the Mercedes level 3 self driving. I think true sci-fi self-driving is many more years away than anyone working on it will admit.
The only thing we are missing is an open-source communication network for cars to run on so that every driverless vehicle knows where other nearby vehicles are.
Turns out making true autonomous vehicles that mix with human drivers and pedestrians requires AGI. Its an incredibly difficult problem to solve. If we could as society agree to end human driving and make every car computer controlled we could do it without AGI, but we aren't doing that so its probably not going to happen for another 15 - 20 years, if civilization continues long enough to crack AGI.
Iām still waiting for my back to the future 2 skateboard god damnit
They really need to expand regional rail in the US
Itās probably a good thing we didnāt get [jet packs](https://youtu.be/vDIojhOkV4w?si=Jaxz7LbHavfW9oW6)
That means that I won't have to get my license. Not that I trust them.
Mercedes is about to launch the first car with Level 3 autonomous driving - under 40mph, select highways, daytime only....its a big step forward but there's quite a ways to go for it to be full self driving. Have you driven a car with hands free driving? That's pretty awesome! GM/Ford products and I'm sure some others have it, it is pretty sweet but doesn't work if you are wearing sunglasses as cameras need to see that your eyes are open - but you can drive without touching the steering wheel for the most part. For long highway drives it is awesome
Look up autonomous vehicles trying to navigate when thereās a cop directing traffic. Complete, total failure. Trains. Guys, we have trains. What do we think is simpler: making a robot that can interpret every possible environmental encounter, while operating a deadly machine, or ā¦ build a train. The issues that come with that (distance to/from train from home work, accessibility, etc) are *very well understood*. But no, letās take *checks notes* a racist south african mining mogulās word for it that cars should drive themselves, obvious safety issues be damned.
Not a chance in our lifetimes. Semi-autonomous, sure. Full autonomous is perpetually decades away.
Definitely for it.
No they are coming. There's too much money to be made for them not to. Jet packs were never something with money attached.Ā
We were promised jet packs is such a good band
Seems like a great answer for drunk drivers.
We got pretty close with jetpacks https://youtube.com/shorts/9cdxPslT3WQ?si=ktke6LOPdYFYixjx
Nope. Not because I need to drive but because it will become a monopoly and will gouge every cent out of people trying to get to work. Its not an if, its a when.
This exists already, they have them in Arizona. It's called Waymo.
Agreed. I'm excited for the very safe transportation system of the future. I think jet packs with 2 parachutes would be awesome.
I am a scientist and wasted 2 years on a startup in this domain. it failed because big companies werenāt interested in making it workā¦ Itās a shitshow. Thatās what it is.
I work in the industry, the tech is impressive but the legal and liability stuff is hard to tackle. The tech will continuously improve but will take awhile for it to be adopted mainstream.
Fuck yeah, thats how i am too. I had to take uber for for 2 months and i got 10 hours a week of work done bc i was able to just do work i stead of pay attention to road. The amount of life we miss out in bc of driving is fucking insane
Nah, this will happen. The productivity boost is too great and the technology is pretty much there following the recent focus on AI. Once someone finally cracks it, it'll be everywhere inside of 10 years. That part will be great. Where it's going to go south is suddenly employers are going to start expecting employees to work during that time. Guarantee.
[Speaking of jetpacks...](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hL_uogkDJk8)
Sorry but you're getting hosed - despite what our car-salesman-in-chief continues to promise you, it's not coming in your lifetime. That said, you will be able to get subscription services of mobility so you won't have to drive, they will just be partially automated or driven by another human. But isn't that almost as good from your POV?
People are dirty. Iām good.
Iād infinitely prefer quality high speed rail. Self driving cars is a pipe dream.
Sounds dystopian as fuck, to me. I like driving, and I value having the freedom to do it manually.
Iād love to never own a car but have one available anytime that was driven automatically. No repairs maintenance lease insurance etc. no worries about a car. Hell I could drink and ride more. Win win win
I had to give my car up before going abroad, and I truly don't want it back. The only bummer is road trips and national parks. Ugh.
Absolutely not. Do you comprehend the full ramifications of what comes with all cars on the road being autonomous? -Auto makers can recall a car on demand -Insurance can recall a car on demand -Police can recall a car on demand -Your employer can recall a car on demand -Locking you out of your car for missing payment -Automatic shut down for traffic infractions
Yes, yes we are. r/selfdrivingcarslie
Maybe, but the real money is with autonomous jetpacks! No way we will get hosed with those!
Did we just become best friends?
Idkā¦I like driving is the thing š
I'm not sure. I kinda like to be in control of the car but that's only because the number of idiot drivers in my area is high. The neighboring city to me is in the US top 10 worst drivers list.
My argument: The individual would need to have full and complete control and privacy and the consequences would need to meet the severity of the consequences real or potential of utilization of tech. No centralized oversight or requiring the vehicles to be connected to function. There should be no way for any external or third party other than the owner and those explicitly authorized, when it comes to any of the vehicles connectivity or data without any required telemetry, or otherwise. Further expounding: You will always have those who value independence and being independent of the system, while making use of its benefits, privacy, and security. Unless the individual has sole control of the autonomous vehicle, and isnāt subject to ANY sort of remote admin override, and being able to use the system without being tracked in any way,and manufacturers provide full control to the individual. Further, there would need to be sufficient personal responsibility tied to the use and ownership of the vehicle that is commensurate with the former inherent rights previously mentioned.