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Now that russia is believed to have lost as many as 8,000 tanks and is reduced to deploying T-54s in assault operations, what's next once those geriatric machines also become scarce?
Will russia's army eventually become equipped solely with North Korean armor? And how long can that last?
I'd be surprised if half those Soviet relics actually get to fire a shot due to either, poor maintenance and they just break down before getting anywhere or Ukraine efficiency in taking them out, which won't be hard if drones are taking out bigger targets.
The russians better hope NK's tanks aren't customized to fit starved NK crews or there's gonna be some bitching and whining from russians trying to squeeze their bellies and fat asses inside them.
> what's next once those geriatric machines also become scarce
Igor & Ivan are currently busy stripping 6 Ladas for the their engines to put into the Maus sitting at the Kubinka tank museum!
Afterwards, they'll be yanking the T34's & IS-3's off the pedestals in the parks. Russia will not run out of tanks! /s
They are currently on track for 726k. If Russia only suffers 1k casualties per day, they'll hit 700k by about Dec 5.
It might even hit 700k in November, given we see 1100 and 1200 days fairly often.
Great numbers on artillery! Tank numbers are still low. I saw a video of an old turtle tank that had no ammo, and could note fire its gun.... It was only used for transport. I wonder if you could even call it a tank.
I saw that video as well. Those turtle tanks also have their turret locked. Basically, the russian military industry is running at full capacity but is still unable to meet the demands of the battlefield.
These meatwave tactics only work if there’s enough resources to sustain it. But the issue is that it’s barely working. So as a direct consequence, we see strange things such as chinese golf carts, motorcycles and turtle tanks which are APCs used for mechanized assaults.
It seems Russia is employing a different mix in their assault units, with one tank and 2-3 APCs/IFVs and a handful of infantry. Tank numbers are low because Russia isn't sending them in mass armor assaults like they tried early in the war.
Probably are facing a lack of T80, T90, and even T72 to risk sending on probing attacks. So we see T62 and T55/54 retrofitted as turtles instead.
I am still hopeful we get at least one reactivated museum T34 before Russia retreats.
I love being wrong. I though things were slowing down a bit over the last week.
1200+ infantry smoked every day - AFU is stomping the f\*ck out of putler's suki
There isn’t one. For Putin to end the war, is to accept death. He’s past the point of being able to withdrawal empty handed, while losing crimea, and having so many dead Russians. He will continue until he is overthrown by his people or runs out of equipment.
They have not run out of tanks but they are obviously desperately short of less ancient tanks, otherwise they would not have to deploy 75-year-old T-54s.
Also, russia's decrepit, corrupt and unproductive industry has been unable to keep up with losses for a long time now.
Comrade putin had no choice but crawl to North Korea and beg for help.
Where to now for the russians? How much longer can they go on?
I think a 60 year old tank having a coaxial machine gun isn't going to completely change the war. I think the entire tank is still going to get disabled a significant distance from UA positions because it's getting spotted and then hit by a drone swarm, likely before it can deploy its machine gun.
Yeah, it's ironic that putin started this war in large part to avenge the Soviet humiliation after Afghanistan, only for russia to then get reamed far worse by Ukraine.
The Soviets were pouring almost the entirety of their GDP into propping up the Potemkin village facades they absolutely could never afford.
A colossal-but-trash military; a space program show pony; all kinds of voodoo black magic social programs that benefited the Party but not the people ("USSR is have more doctor than any Western nation... although, naturally, they are all very bad doctors...")
No surprise Afghanistan was one reach too far.
I think his paranoia about the West would prevent him from accepting it. He "knows" that a high-profile target living abroad can be assassinated given he's had it done several times, so accepting amnesty would be tantamount to death all the same.
Well in excess of 2 million I am certain. Russia will never allow themselves to lose this war. They are in way too deep and will just continue to throw more and more meat at Ukraine. Russia will tolerate millions of dead. They can win the war this way simply because Ukraine will collapse at some point under an assault that kills millions. It's a war of mathematics.
Great weapons mean nothing if you have no troops to use them. Imagine Russia loses 2 million troops in this war. How many does Ukraine lose? Maybe if Ukraine massively increases its use of foreign troops they can maintain an army, but right now they simply do not have the manpower to deal with endless meat waves.
This assumes Russia's population maintains its zombie like stupor accepting endless casualties.
And, conversely, having troops without decent weapons means they'll just get slaughtered in higher numbers. Already seeing 1000+ casualty numbers with little or no tank and APV numbers. That will only go higher as the russian war machine just keeps grinding itself into dust.
What will happen if the war continues the way it is going is that the causality ratio between the two sides will just keep going up in Ukraine's favor. Ukraine is winning the artillery war and the drone war. That will continue and means that unsupported russian troops will get slaughtered before they can fire on the Ukrainians.
You also assume that the West won't supply troops. If the russians manage to start winning again, which isn't likely, foreign troops will be on Ukrainian soil fighting for Ukraine. The West wants Ukraine to win, they also want the russian war machine dismantled without losing their own people.
I don't know if Ukraine is winning the artillery war, but they are certainly doing a number on Russian artillery.
The probing Russian assaults with 3-4 armored units and a platoon of infantry doesn't seem to be very effective against UA positions. Drones see them from far away and start disabling them hundreds of meters from their positions or further. Then it's just a matter of FPVs and drone drops eliminating the entire assault group.
I hope France's decision to send trainers directly into Ukraine will remove that taboo from other nations. Maybe even see EU and US troops sent to garrison areas to free up UA troops. I think Russia would think twice about attacking across certain border areas if they knew NATO troops were stationed there to maintain internationally recognized borders.
No, doing more damage with your artillery is winning the artillery war. That's a combination of how many fires you send and how effective those fires are at destroying targets.
I seriously doubt anyone is going to be attacking Russia elsewhere along its vast border. I could be wrong but I think it's too much to hope for with a second front developing.
I just don't see Ukraine having enough troops to deal with Russia's apparent willingness to lose an unlimited number of troops. Not enough attention is being given to this aspect of the war. Again, imagine we see the daily casualty report and it's the day Russia passes 2 million dead and wounded. Imagine Ukraine's losses at the same point. Would it even be possible to reach this point? That is very much not clear.
Some people seem to be mindlessly concluding that Russia can lose millions of men and be fine because that’s what happened in WW2, yet they ignore the Afghan War.
It's really about when Ukraine runs out of soldiers. If Russia is willing to lose 10 million men, that is 2 million dead Ukrainians (roughly speaking). Can Ukraine survive that? Yes. But will they capitulate at some point due to losses? Possible. What should be readily apparent is that this war isn't going to stop until someone capitulates as the deployed technology has made it impossible to accumulate the forces necessary for breakthroughs of the defensive fortification on either side. The other option is a technology breakthrough but it hasn't been proposed. Without the necessary air assets to give the UAF air supremacy, nobody is gathering large forces for an assault. They need much more than F16s.
Russia would collapse far before they managed to gather 10 million soldiers.
Russia has about 150,000,000 people total (I'm using this number for ease of math, it's actually closer to 146m).
Half of those are women and very unlikely to be conscripted. That leaves 75m people.
About 17m are minors and not viable to send to Ukraine. Let's subtract 15m and count those remaining 2m as boys close enough to recruitment age, so they'll hit 17/18 in the next couple years. That's 60m left.
About 15.5% of Russia are elderly and not physically capable of fighting in Ukraine. That's about 22m people. Let's subtract 20m and the 2m are the youngest and fittest senior citizens that *might* be able to serve. 40m left.
So Russia has *maybe* 40m men in the right age range to fight. That isn't just peak fighting age, but basically 16-65. But this is also the group most likely to be working in the various industries across Russia. In the US, it's about 80-20 male to female in oil and gas industry, so I assume it's the same or even more skewed toward men in Russia. By all reports, the Russian oil and gas industry is already feeling heavy worker shortfalls in the 10s of thousands, and pulling millions from that 40m demographic will only make that worse. Not to mention all the manufacturing and other male dominated industries.
Sure, the Russians could bring in more women to work those jobs, like the US did for manufacturing in WW2. But that comes at a cost of initial training and losing experience. It's also Russia, who doesn't exactly have a great history of gender equality.
Russia may have the raw numbers for 10m soldiers, but they will destroy their industrial base and economy to pull that many. Inflation, goods shortages, logistics delays, etc.
You'll get different answers from different people, but I've been following this since the start of the invasion and the most well educated parties on the matter seem to agree that it is dead and wounded with a likely ratio likely at 1:2.5
Would it be in bad taste to set up a pool gambling on daily casualty numbers? I'm definitely not much of a gambler myself, but I could see it being morbidly fun. 1270 Seems to be a number I've seen come up before. I'll have to try that in Mega Millions or something. I wonder how you would calculate odds? I wouldn't be surprised if there's numbers that come up more frequently than others.
Please remember the human. Adhere to all Reddit and sub rules. Toxic comments (including incitement of violence/hate, genocide, glorifying death etc) WILL NOT BE TOLERATED, keep your comments civil or you will be banned. Tagging u/SaveVideo bot to archive this video in a link below this comment. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkraineWarVideoReport) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The unsung hero of the war. Counter-battery artillery radars.
Send them a few more and bump those arty numbers up
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That’s not a plus one for today. That’s 1 total. Orange text is for today.
Oh duh, don't know why I misread that. Must be tired. Thanks!
Now that russia is believed to have lost as many as 8,000 tanks and is reduced to deploying T-54s in assault operations, what's next once those geriatric machines also become scarce? Will russia's army eventually become equipped solely with North Korean armor? And how long can that last?
I'd be surprised if half those Soviet relics actually get to fire a shot due to either, poor maintenance and they just break down before getting anywhere or Ukraine efficiency in taking them out, which won't be hard if drones are taking out bigger targets.
I couldn’t imagine the accumulated mileage on those North Korean tanks from those stupid parades alone since they like a good ol parade
The russians better hope NK's tanks aren't customized to fit starved NK crews or there's gonna be some bitching and whining from russians trying to squeeze their bellies and fat asses inside them.
With their beer bellies? lol. Well they probably had to cut a hole in the top for kim to fit in during his playtime
> what's next once those geriatric machines also become scarce Igor & Ivan are currently busy stripping 6 Ladas for the their engines to put into the Maus sitting at the Kubinka tank museum! Afterwards, they'll be yanking the T34's & IS-3's off the pedestals in the parks. Russia will not run out of tanks! /s
Why did Putin visit North-Korea?
Because he knows he's losing.
Russia has now suffered 175,130 losses in the 175 days of fighting in 2024 for an average of 1000 losses a day.
Good stats on the artillery
Might reach 700k by the end of the year if they keep the numbers up!
They are currently on track for 726k. If Russia only suffers 1k casualties per day, they'll hit 700k by about Dec 5. It might even hit 700k in November, given we see 1100 and 1200 days fairly often.
Great numbers on artillery! Tank numbers are still low. I saw a video of an old turtle tank that had no ammo, and could note fire its gun.... It was only used for transport. I wonder if you could even call it a tank.
I saw that video as well. Those turtle tanks also have their turret locked. Basically, the russian military industry is running at full capacity but is still unable to meet the demands of the battlefield. These meatwave tactics only work if there’s enough resources to sustain it. But the issue is that it’s barely working. So as a direct consequence, we see strange things such as chinese golf carts, motorcycles and turtle tanks which are APCs used for mechanized assaults.
It seems Russia is employing a different mix in their assault units, with one tank and 2-3 APCs/IFVs and a handful of infantry. Tank numbers are low because Russia isn't sending them in mass armor assaults like they tried early in the war. Probably are facing a lack of T80, T90, and even T72 to risk sending on probing attacks. So we see T62 and T55/54 retrofitted as turtles instead. I am still hopeful we get at least one reactivated museum T34 before Russia retreats.
:) Yup at least one T-34 as a sign that their storages are totally depleted.
61 arty! Slava Ukraine!
A nice, long streak of >1000 days. May it continue!
I love being wrong. I though things were slowing down a bit over the last week. 1200+ infantry smoked every day - AFU is stomping the f\*ck out of putler's suki
>oriented To where?
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There isn’t one. For Putin to end the war, is to accept death. He’s past the point of being able to withdrawal empty handed, while losing crimea, and having so many dead Russians. He will continue until he is overthrown by his people or runs out of equipment.
They have not run out of tanks but they are obviously desperately short of less ancient tanks, otherwise they would not have to deploy 75-year-old T-54s. Also, russia's decrepit, corrupt and unproductive industry has been unable to keep up with losses for a long time now. Comrade putin had no choice but crawl to North Korea and beg for help. Where to now for the russians? How much longer can they go on?
China has 5,000 old Type 59 tanks that they could easily give to Russia to fight the Ukrainians.
Ukraine thanks China for the generous donation of so much scrap steel for Ukraine's industry.
You never know. The Type 59 was a game changer before, it could be so again.
Yeah...no. There's no way a 60 year old tank survives to become a game changer in Ukraine today. Drone drops and FPVs will shread their top armor.
They still have a coaxial machine gun which is devastating to infantry.
I think a 60 year old tank having a coaxial machine gun isn't going to completely change the war. I think the entire tank is still going to get disabled a significant distance from UA positions because it's getting spotted and then hit by a drone swarm, likely before it can deploy its machine gun.
>The Type 59 was a game changer before, it could be so again. Like the T-90M. Oh, wait.... **л о л с к и**
The Type 59 has a coaxial machine gun. That's important in today's war.
That's it, the end is here. Where do we sign on the surrender document?
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It's the best deal he could get. Comrade putin's sole motivation now is his survival and the preservation of his regime.
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Yeah, it's ironic that putin started this war in large part to avenge the Soviet humiliation after Afghanistan, only for russia to then get reamed far worse by Ukraine.
[удалено]
The Soviets were pouring almost the entirety of their GDP into propping up the Potemkin village facades they absolutely could never afford. A colossal-but-trash military; a space program show pony; all kinds of voodoo black magic social programs that benefited the Party but not the people ("USSR is have more doctor than any Western nation... although, naturally, they are all very bad doctors...") No surprise Afghanistan was one reach too far.
I think his paranoia about the West would prevent him from accepting it. He "knows" that a high-profile target living abroad can be assassinated given he's had it done several times, so accepting amnesty would be tantamount to death all the same.
Well in excess of 2 million I am certain. Russia will never allow themselves to lose this war. They are in way too deep and will just continue to throw more and more meat at Ukraine. Russia will tolerate millions of dead. They can win the war this way simply because Ukraine will collapse at some point under an assault that kills millions. It's a war of mathematics.
[удалено]
Great weapons mean nothing if you have no troops to use them. Imagine Russia loses 2 million troops in this war. How many does Ukraine lose? Maybe if Ukraine massively increases its use of foreign troops they can maintain an army, but right now they simply do not have the manpower to deal with endless meat waves. This assumes Russia's population maintains its zombie like stupor accepting endless casualties.
And, conversely, having troops without decent weapons means they'll just get slaughtered in higher numbers. Already seeing 1000+ casualty numbers with little or no tank and APV numbers. That will only go higher as the russian war machine just keeps grinding itself into dust. What will happen if the war continues the way it is going is that the causality ratio between the two sides will just keep going up in Ukraine's favor. Ukraine is winning the artillery war and the drone war. That will continue and means that unsupported russian troops will get slaughtered before they can fire on the Ukrainians. You also assume that the West won't supply troops. If the russians manage to start winning again, which isn't likely, foreign troops will be on Ukrainian soil fighting for Ukraine. The West wants Ukraine to win, they also want the russian war machine dismantled without losing their own people.
I don't know if Ukraine is winning the artillery war, but they are certainly doing a number on Russian artillery. The probing Russian assaults with 3-4 armored units and a platoon of infantry doesn't seem to be very effective against UA positions. Drones see them from far away and start disabling them hundreds of meters from their positions or further. Then it's just a matter of FPVs and drone drops eliminating the entire assault group. I hope France's decision to send trainers directly into Ukraine will remove that taboo from other nations. Maybe even see EU and US troops sent to garrison areas to free up UA troops. I think Russia would think twice about attacking across certain border areas if they knew NATO troops were stationed there to maintain internationally recognized borders.
Doing a number of the russian artillery IS winning the artillery war.
No, doing more damage with your artillery is winning the artillery war. That's a combination of how many fires you send and how effective those fires are at destroying targets.
Destroying 40-60 artillery units a day IS winning the artillery war. That's 40-60 units a day that aren't doing damage to your side.
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I seriously doubt anyone is going to be attacking Russia elsewhere along its vast border. I could be wrong but I think it's too much to hope for with a second front developing. I just don't see Ukraine having enough troops to deal with Russia's apparent willingness to lose an unlimited number of troops. Not enough attention is being given to this aspect of the war. Again, imagine we see the daily casualty report and it's the day Russia passes 2 million dead and wounded. Imagine Ukraine's losses at the same point. Would it even be possible to reach this point? That is very much not clear.
[удалено]
Some people seem to be mindlessly concluding that Russia can lose millions of men and be fine because that’s what happened in WW2, yet they ignore the Afghan War.
It's really about when Ukraine runs out of soldiers. If Russia is willing to lose 10 million men, that is 2 million dead Ukrainians (roughly speaking). Can Ukraine survive that? Yes. But will they capitulate at some point due to losses? Possible. What should be readily apparent is that this war isn't going to stop until someone capitulates as the deployed technology has made it impossible to accumulate the forces necessary for breakthroughs of the defensive fortification on either side. The other option is a technology breakthrough but it hasn't been proposed. Without the necessary air assets to give the UAF air supremacy, nobody is gathering large forces for an assault. They need much more than F16s.
Russia would collapse far before they managed to gather 10 million soldiers. Russia has about 150,000,000 people total (I'm using this number for ease of math, it's actually closer to 146m). Half of those are women and very unlikely to be conscripted. That leaves 75m people. About 17m are minors and not viable to send to Ukraine. Let's subtract 15m and count those remaining 2m as boys close enough to recruitment age, so they'll hit 17/18 in the next couple years. That's 60m left. About 15.5% of Russia are elderly and not physically capable of fighting in Ukraine. That's about 22m people. Let's subtract 20m and the 2m are the youngest and fittest senior citizens that *might* be able to serve. 40m left. So Russia has *maybe* 40m men in the right age range to fight. That isn't just peak fighting age, but basically 16-65. But this is also the group most likely to be working in the various industries across Russia. In the US, it's about 80-20 male to female in oil and gas industry, so I assume it's the same or even more skewed toward men in Russia. By all reports, the Russian oil and gas industry is already feeling heavy worker shortfalls in the 10s of thousands, and pulling millions from that 40m demographic will only make that worse. Not to mention all the manufacturing and other male dominated industries. Sure, the Russians could bring in more women to work those jobs, like the US did for manufacturing in WW2. But that comes at a cost of initial training and losing experience. It's also Russia, who doesn't exactly have a great history of gender equality. Russia may have the raw numbers for 10m soldiers, but they will destroy their industrial base and economy to pull that many. Inflation, goods shortages, logistics delays, etc.
It seems like it’s been a streak of casualty numbers getting into the thousands, what’s happening this time?
Anyone know if the 1/2 million personnel losses is deaths? Or casualties?
You'll get different answers from different people, but I've been following this since the start of the invasion and the most well educated parties on the matter seem to agree that it is dead and wounded with a likely ratio likely at 1:2.5
No military is dumb enough to release their real loss numbers. This is not how it works.
Would it be in bad taste to set up a pool gambling on daily casualty numbers? I'm definitely not much of a gambler myself, but I could see it being morbidly fun. 1270 Seems to be a number I've seen come up before. I'll have to try that in Mega Millions or something. I wonder how you would calculate odds? I wouldn't be surprised if there's numbers that come up more frequently than others.