AMZN. Not a screaming buy like in 2022/2023 but great value.
META has the best numbers (apart from cyclical NVDA) but less likely they will manage to sustain all this growth
$AMZN when it moves, it moons. It's really under valued considering that they are turning into a huge cash flow generating company after so many years of internal investing
For a company focused on long-term growth, growing OCF is crucial because it indicates strong operational performance. Temporary declines in FCF due to strategic investments can be acceptable if these investments are expected to drive future growth.
So, I do believe that $AMZN is very under valued at $183 today. It should be at least $260 imo.
A lot of “AI Capex” is expensed, not capitalized under US GAAP. So, OCF will in turn show lower figures. It’s important to ascertain in the IS what the R&D expenditures are on, and try to see how much can be attributed to AI development. It’s very hard to capitalize internally generated intangible assets to a balance sheet
Amzn
They are growing add revenue and aws quite quickly. Retail is always growing. Also interesting to see how Alex and prime video play out this year as well
I work at Amazon. The internal frugality is amazing and like nothing I've seen in my 10 years here. We are investing only in true cash-flow generating projects, not nonsense like delivering packages via hyper-precise catapults or remaking 'The Godfather' with an all-female cast. I keep all my stock awards and do not diversify. I believe that large-language models and general-purpose AI will revolutionize our business but won't say more about that.
Amazon employee here as well going on 5 yrs. 3k shares vested. Our ad business is about to boom with PV, we havent even touched the surface of whats to come
AMZN PE 51.41 forward PE 31.32
META PE 28.93 forward PE 21.75
GOOG PE 27.31 forward PE 20.81
Yea no thanks, AMZN is valued just slightly below MSFT. AMZN is also way behind in AI and self driving.
How is Amazon undervalued?
Fcf per share = 4.32
If we assume LT FCF growth per share = 7%, wacc=10%, FV of stock = 150 USD assuming Net debt = 0 ( which is close to reality for amazons scale). Current price = 180, where is the value?
You really believe perpetual growth of 7% is… too low? Come on now. I have absolutely zero opinion on the valuation of Amazon, and have no shares, but saying perpetual growth of something at 7% is too low is absurdity. There are laws of diminishing returns in play for literally every economy and business. It shouldn’t be disregarded and high growth rates projected
No position, but the argument would be that AMZN continues to invest in itself so should be valued more on earnings power and growth rather than trailing twelve months FCF generation
Because you don't use a single period perpetuity model to value a company that's heavily invested/continuing to invest in capex with tons of growth opportunities.
I have a degree in finance and your comment still looks like rocket science. Would you mind breaking down the logic and terminology? I’m just learning investing .
If not that’s absolutely fine, I appreciate we’re all busy. But thought I’d ask humbly.
I used GGM (Gordon Growth Model) which is:
Fair value =( Dividends at time 0 *(1+ dividend growth rate))/(discount rate - dividend growth rate)
FCF - free cash flow
WACC - weighted cost of
capital
LT - long term
The rest is googleable. Please google if unclear, use chat gpt afterwards.
If anything still remains unclear after that ask me and i will try to find a time to explain it to you
I can‘t tell if you‘re joking or not, but for people who think u/renaldomoon isn‘t: it‘s „dividends at time 0“ as in: dividends at the start of the calculation period, i.e. the time = 0. NOT „the dividends are equal to 0 at the time.“
5 years ago, nvidia looked expensive as hell. In hindsight, it obviously wasn't back then. You need to predict the future of a business to assess it's value. The ability to do that with a high accuracy is probably what buffett means when talking about "circle of competence"
I feel like no one read the thread title except you. Why is everyone posting 10-50 billion stocks.
I would say amazon and unh, roche. I think these two can be considered quite mega cap, certainly unh.
Evolution Gaming (EVO), listed on Stockholm Exchange. Not sure if they are mega cap, market cap ~$226B. Game studio for online casino, world wide growth at the moment.
*19.5* P/E declined 32% in past 5 years, *58.8%* net profit margin, *627%* EPS growth last 5 years, *-0.72* Net debt/EBITA
Incredible financials and underlying business growth, I think it’s trading below value but at the very least it’s fairly valued with a bright future ahead. Number 1 pick right now.
Edit: forgot to mention *2.81%* dividend with *775%* dividend growth in the past 5 years.
Yeah, I didn’t believe it when I converted. But I’m so dumb apparently, that when I did it again a second time I still got it wrong again, and just went whatever maybe it is huge.
Anyway, people can decide to ignore or look into it.
The products are games at the end of the day, so there’s sometimes news about the games being used in markets where online gambling is illegal.
But it’s important to note that nothing material has ever come of this as the company is not behind it, the games get pirated or whatever and used illegally sometimes.
They’ve had the same leadership for many years so I’ve got a lot of confidence in them, but you can imagine the enemies they are making in THAT market, growing at that rate at that size.
Market Cap is $21B not 226 which kinda not puts you at a great DD.
But I have to say they are some titans of the industry.
I believe they will continue to drop till earnings so I'll load up before
Also frequently in hot water for some very shady deals involving unlicensed gray online casinos.
Make no mistake they are the software equivalent of a coke dealer. It's all fun and games until one day regulators decide to crush you
CVS has all the problems of running a major insurance company and all of the problems of running almost every single layer of healthcare on top of running a competitive retail operation.
With that level of specialization, they are sure to do well and be a lean operator in their fields.
There is definitely some value in CVS but I don't think there is any real significant growth to be had in there largest cash burn sector of the business which is retail.
I don't see how one of the winners out of the streaming wars isn't WBD, they have a great content library and HBO's team is extremely good. I do wonder what the long-term profitability of this sector will be though.
Down almost 40% on WBD, they can not generate an income from creating films for theatres, they need to reimagine movie budgeting and marketing budget as a whole, they are burning cash with there only possible respite in streaming who they have to compete with netflix on, it is an uphill battle but there catalogue is phenomenal when you consider there inventory is mostly focused in large non superhero/action hero films.
Net free cash flow on average has been positive the past several quarters, and that's after paying down quite a large amount of debt. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/WBD/warner-bros-discovery/cash-flow-statement?freq=Q
When you say “net free cash flow,” what are you referring to?
The calculation for free cash flow doesn’t account for debt repayment (which falls under financing cash flows), right? So are you saying free cash flows, net of big debt repayments, have been positive? If so, that’s definitely impressive, I’m just unclear on the meaning of “net free cash flow”.
profitable in this case is subjective. The have HUGE depreciation and amortisation costs, but in a lot of ways, their assets actually improve in value over time. Like Harry potter and Friends. Next they are paying off huge amounts of debt as a result of the merger. So while they arent 'profitable', its more the profits arent showing up in the typical way. They clearly will be very profitable soon, and those profits will be a third of their market cap.
This is where standard ratios on their own are unfit for valuation, more important is the stocks journey and destination.
Sold a whole set of mutual funds from my wife’s 401(K) to purchase META at $98 to lower my average to $134 overall around November 2022. I can’t think of a better stock to invest in even if I take profits, so I’m holding. 😊
The good news is also the cyclical side of the business looks like it's turning as well. Made 40% on them already just on HBM for AI datacenters revenues.
How should we look at a company like Micron from a value investing perspective? Genuinely curious — I get a bit lost when current earnings are negative. What metrics do you use to evaluate for a cyclical like this?
Everything is not expensive, some technology stocks have elevated forward earnings projections and are for that reason priced the way they are.
Some automakers, some European banks, and a few energy companies are all dirt cheap. Markets being forward-looking might miss this since risk outweighs expected growth for those industries. We'll see, some industries like semis seem close to overheating soon, we'll see what happens to the cheaper value companies then.
Check portuguese stock market … if tou have time check Galp, bcp, mota engil, ren, edp , greenvolt, altri, ramada , Jerónimo Martins ….
If your into european stocks cheap ones …try this.
All portuguese stocks are in small cap territory with no growth. Only that can growth and generate growing cash flows are Jerónimo martins or galp, but theres no margin on safety on this ones.
The buy on portuguese index was during financial debt crisis. For example Semapa its stil an undervalue holding but from 2012 to know if you held the stock and reinvest the dividends, you would be up 400%
Please do your own DD. There are two sharply divided camps.
One side sees it as a value trap. A lumbering, old money bluechip that over extended itself with lofty M&A and Covid bets and got its ass handed to it while facing a reckoning with several incoming patent protection losses and a shaky pipeline.
The other side, which is my side, sees it as a very well funded but temporarily punished company that has taken its licks but could probably only go up because part of what they were punished for was an ambitious M&A (Seagen) that will give them an incredible portfolio of oncology opportunities that will align with the CEO's public statements that Pfizer will work night and day to be the cancer therapy powerhouse of the future, which would solve the pipeline issue. In addition, it's capable of maintaining a healthy R&D budget and paying a .42 cent dividend per share, per quarter, with a goal of increasing it. All this, and at a very attractive entry price for what investors should expect to be a long hold. Just my take.
I’m curious to see how the Seagen pipeline plays out. I picked up a 1000 shares recently as a long term investment. Don’t mind collecting the dividend in the meantime.
VFC. Corporation that owns The North Face, Vans, Dickies and many more. Former CEO did his best to run it into the ground (80% decrease in share price from 3 years ago), and the new CEO, Bracken Darrel has done a great job overhauling the leadership team.
I think the stock is undervalued at this level, but that it is also a turnaround play.
I think that’s the turnaround part of the thesis.
YSL and Bottega should improve before Gucci.
They own 30% of Valentino which is doing well and they have the option to purchase 100% of it.
Definitely been a mess, the 5 year chart is unreal. But they’ve got some great brands. Bracken Darrel just did a big insider buy too, gives me the tiniest bit more confidence
Not a mega stock but I’m interested in Diageo. They own some brands that aren’t going anywhere (Guinness, Smirnoff, Johnnie Walker) and seem undervalued but maybe I’m missing something.
Only have a tiny position as I think you’re right, I think there is more bottom still but part of me thinks it could bounce from around 2400 if earnings aren’t terrible. What’s giving you your feeling?
Love me some Guinness and Johnny Walker, but net sales growth is negative 20-something percent in Latin America. They’re struggling there. There’s also a trend amongst gen Z for more sober lifestyles.
I’m in this industry and honestly it’s not worth investing in. I work for E&J Gallo and even though our sales and revenue are up it’s because of High Noon. Brown spirits are down and wine has been down for years. Diageo is in the same boat as Brown Forman right now. I’d look at them like tobacco stocks…
Just came here to say that INTC is not a mega stock anymore. Definition of “Mega” has changed with top 7 companies above $1T market cap. And top 3 above $3T
I looked at them, very impressive financials. 4.2 billion in cash, no debt. The business at least at the moment looks like it burns some money. (Trimmed from long ago). It seems like even basic treasuries can float the losses.
I’ve been around long enough to remember when people said the same thing about MSFT during the Balmer Era. It was stagnant and a has-been. I loaded up then and am up over 1,300% now.
I started a small position in INTC this week for a long-term hold. It’s a potential turnaround where I see the upside as much more favorable than the downside. My two cents at least. To each their own.
Biggest problem with Intel is talent and management. I know a few people who work there and always brag about working 10-15 hours a week and not having crap to do.
Micron (MU) is the only right answer. Least valued Major semiconductor stock right now. They sold out their entire year’s worth of supply for HBM3E and have already allocated most of 2025’s supply too. HBM3E is the fastest and most efficient memory chip that is used for DRAM and SRAM memory on Nvidia’s H200 tensor core GPU’s. Sk Hynix and Samsung are their competitors but micron has an edge over them as their chips save 30% more power than the competitors. Memory demand is on the rise and there will be a demand supply gap by the end of this year which will only increase the prices.
Surprised no one’s said ADBE (of course, before today). Not super undervalued but a great company at a slightly undervalued price. Bought on Tuesday, plan to hold forever barring massive overvaluation
$BROS.
Dutch Bros is planning on expanding up to 4K locations from 800 by 2040. The coffee and drink options taste so much better than Starbucks (IMO).
Not quite mega cap but Adobe is one of the bigger stocks in the NASDAQ100 and definitely undervalued.
I don't know why Adobe has sold off against the backdrop of this AI hype. I tried the new Adobe Express and could see how generative AI is adding a lot of value to their software. They are going to be the first to monetize generative AI.
I love the idea of being able to generate content with prompts as a hobbyist and definitely was tempted to sub.
Adobe has always been a rock solid growth company financially also. They increase revenue like clockwork.
PBR Petrobras. Fundamentals are crazy good. Bet on oil. Bet on US - Brazil currency exchange rates. But there's always a reason why the price is so low.
As a value investor your job is call *bullshit* on the fear. Where and when it's justified. And so I do. You're allright Lula and all that trash they're talking about you is *bullshit*.
Lula wants to keep dividends with in Brazil. They could also cancel the dividend at anytime.
They are just a publicly traded state monopoly company, buyer beware
Right now QCOM and PANW I have leaps on and I think they look good. I had a leap on TSLA but sold it and I’m watching TSLA again but I think it needs to go down if they’re going to pay musk by selling more stock which would push the stock price down to 165 if they did it all today. MSFT is honestly still good but apple and nvidia feel like chasing but I’m still holding my positions in them for the long term. And only do day trading on them with options.
Dell is high risk since it’s dancing on the 50SMA right now but I have a 100 share position cause I do think it will come back and it has a small dividend and am just selling otm call on it and if it gets called I’m fine with it. If there server business keeps doing well I’ll buy again if I get called or just buy more.
SONY is in AI, Gaming, VR, and has a wide range of consumer goods. I understand that ADRs can be unattractive, but with Japan's inflation, interest rates at 0, and major investment potential with Japanese currency so cheap. It's a fantastic buy.
Once I started viewing Tesla as more of a software company then a Car Manufacturer. The more I see their stock as undervalued. Their FSD is not perfect but clearly ahead of the pack. Their enormous fleet of charging stations has a very big moat that other electric car manufacturers are no longer trying to compete with and are licensing from them makes it a very interesting long hold for me. Despite some of Elon’s antics.
Palantir, I’ll explain. I don’t know what they do, but I like everything about it in the current environment/hype cycle. AI, military defense spending, healthcare, huge contracts, and a first mover/ unique advantage. Just wish it wasn’t tied to Peter Thiel
They need to get more contracts in consumer sector and that would definitely help. Also, a merger with a military hardware company of sorts would help diversify their pipeline.
NVIDIA, because of poors post-split FOMO, financial institutions entrenching their positions, record Earnings and the impending launch of Blackwell architecture.
It's about to go to 300$ by EoY. Conservative estimate..
AMZN. Not a screaming buy like in 2022/2023 but great value. META has the best numbers (apart from cyclical NVDA) but less likely they will manage to sustain all this growth
AMZN all the way
$AMZN when it moves, it moons. It's really under valued considering that they are turning into a huge cash flow generating company after so many years of internal investing
Well, they are increasing AI Capex hugely so you may not see such a huge boost in FCF. OCF will continue to grow very fast though
For a company focused on long-term growth, growing OCF is crucial because it indicates strong operational performance. Temporary declines in FCF due to strategic investments can be acceptable if these investments are expected to drive future growth. So, I do believe that $AMZN is very under valued at $183 today. It should be at least $260 imo.
You might have a promising career as a chatbot if investing doesn’t work out
A lot of “AI Capex” is expensed, not capitalized under US GAAP. So, OCF will in turn show lower figures. It’s important to ascertain in the IS what the R&D expenditures are on, and try to see how much can be attributed to AI development. It’s very hard to capitalize internally generated intangible assets to a balance sheet
Isn’t the future cash flow priced in though? At a pe of 50 it seems like it is.
Keep in mind META tends to have really good years during election seasons and worldwide this is has lined up to be the biggest election season ever.
Of all magnificent 7 it’s the only one in buy territory
PE on GOOG is like half AMZN
That is correct
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Amzn They are growing add revenue and aws quite quickly. Retail is always growing. Also interesting to see how Alex and prime video play out this year as well
I work at Amazon. The internal frugality is amazing and like nothing I've seen in my 10 years here. We are investing only in true cash-flow generating projects, not nonsense like delivering packages via hyper-precise catapults or remaking 'The Godfather' with an all-female cast. I keep all my stock awards and do not diversify. I believe that large-language models and general-purpose AI will revolutionize our business but won't say more about that.
Hyper-Precise Catapults sounds like a folk rock band
I feel like folk rock would be more imprecise trebuchets
Amazon employee here as well going on 5 yrs. 3k shares vested. Our ad business is about to boom with PV, we havent even touched the surface of whats to come
Prime video sucked before ads. Now really sucks.
AMZN PE 51.41 forward PE 31.32 META PE 28.93 forward PE 21.75 GOOG PE 27.31 forward PE 20.81 Yea no thanks, AMZN is valued just slightly below MSFT. AMZN is also way behind in AI and self driving.
How is Amazon undervalued? Fcf per share = 4.32 If we assume LT FCF growth per share = 7%, wacc=10%, FV of stock = 150 USD assuming Net debt = 0 ( which is close to reality for amazons scale). Current price = 180, where is the value?
Long term fcf growth of 7% is just too low. They’re still growing revenue in double digits, no way is fcf going to be just 7.
You really believe perpetual growth of 7% is… too low? Come on now. I have absolutely zero opinion on the valuation of Amazon, and have no shares, but saying perpetual growth of something at 7% is too low is absurdity. There are laws of diminishing returns in play for literally every economy and business. It shouldn’t be disregarded and high growth rates projected
He never said perpetual, but long term, which means at most 10 years.
No position, but the argument would be that AMZN continues to invest in itself so should be valued more on earnings power and growth rather than trailing twelve months FCF generation
Because you don't use a single period perpetuity model to value a company that's heavily invested/continuing to invest in capex with tons of growth opportunities.
I have a degree in finance and your comment still looks like rocket science. Would you mind breaking down the logic and terminology? I’m just learning investing . If not that’s absolutely fine, I appreciate we’re all busy. But thought I’d ask humbly.
I used GGM (Gordon Growth Model) which is: Fair value =( Dividends at time 0 *(1+ dividend growth rate))/(discount rate - dividend growth rate) FCF - free cash flow WACC - weighted cost of capital LT - long term The rest is googleable. Please google if unclear, use chat gpt afterwards. If anything still remains unclear after that ask me and i will try to find a time to explain it to you
You don’t use ggm for actual valuation you use it for finance 101 classes
No one uses ggm
“Dividend growth rate”? Amzn doesn’t pay one. What number are you using?
He's using 0, that's why it says 0 after dividends at time. He's just giving the full formula if someone wants to use it as well.
I can‘t tell if you‘re joking or not, but for people who think u/renaldomoon isn‘t: it‘s „dividends at time 0“ as in: dividends at the start of the calculation period, i.e. the time = 0. NOT „the dividends are equal to 0 at the time.“
I mean the only way to value Amazon right now is by using price to operating cash flow.
Love seeing others just like me in here.
if number crunshing helped to identify undervalued stocks, everyone would be successfull ...
Correct, using math to try and find alpha on a stock is not an edge. I heard that from a podcast … might’ve been bill ackman?
5 years ago, nvidia looked expensive as hell. In hindsight, it obviously wasn't back then. You need to predict the future of a business to assess it's value. The ability to do that with a high accuracy is probably what buffett means when talking about "circle of competence"
I feel like no one read the thread title except you. Why is everyone posting 10-50 billion stocks. I would say amazon and unh, roche. I think these two can be considered quite mega cap, certainly unh.
AMZN is by a mile the megacap with the highest increase ahead
Evolution Gaming (EVO), listed on Stockholm Exchange. Not sure if they are mega cap, market cap ~$226B. Game studio for online casino, world wide growth at the moment. *19.5* P/E declined 32% in past 5 years, *58.8%* net profit margin, *627%* EPS growth last 5 years, *-0.72* Net debt/EBITA Incredible financials and underlying business growth, I think it’s trading below value but at the very least it’s fairly valued with a bright future ahead. Number 1 pick right now. Edit: forgot to mention *2.81%* dividend with *775%* dividend growth in the past 5 years.
Just to clarify, the 226b market cap is in Swedish kronas, it's around 21-22b usd
Yeah, I didn’t believe it when I converted. But I’m so dumb apparently, that when I did it again a second time I still got it wrong again, and just went whatever maybe it is huge. Anyway, people can decide to ignore or look into it.
Thanks for the heads up. I hadn’t seen this stock. What’s the story with the security fraud lawsuits?
The products are games at the end of the day, so there’s sometimes news about the games being used in markets where online gambling is illegal. But it’s important to note that nothing material has ever come of this as the company is not behind it, the games get pirated or whatever and used illegally sometimes. They’ve had the same leadership for many years so I’ve got a lot of confidence in them, but you can imagine the enemies they are making in THAT market, growing at that rate at that size.
Went all in on EVO tech off this comment. That's the right one right?
Did you really just go all in on a stock that a stranger on Reddit promoted without doing any research???
With the wrong ticker on the wrong exchange
WSB level investor research right there
Hang on, grabbing popcorn
As in Evotec SE ? No, no it's not
Oh...
We lose some
Market Cap is $21B not 226 which kinda not puts you at a great DD. But I have to say they are some titans of the industry. I believe they will continue to drop till earnings so I'll load up before
Me too, hoping to pick up aroung 980 SEK
Also frequently in hot water for some very shady deals involving unlicensed gray online casinos. Make no mistake they are the software equivalent of a coke dealer. It's all fun and games until one day regulators decide to crush you
GOOG. WTF, I did not see GOOG commented at all. Am I stupid or the commenters ?
Got in GOOGL when it fell to $126 in October, and will probably add more soon
Class a or c?
I chose class A, no real rhyme or reason though.
Gotta be one or the other, right?
Can be both too..
I see it going to 220 by end of year and 300 by next year as AI embeds in advertising.
CVS in the 50s
CVS has all the problems of running a major insurance company and all of the problems of running almost every single layer of healthcare on top of running a competitive retail operation. With that level of specialization, they are sure to do well and be a lean operator in their fields.
There is definitely some value in CVS but I don't think there is any real significant growth to be had in there largest cash burn sector of the business which is retail.
**🤣🤣🤣**
Amazon and V both trading at great value in comparison to others.
Visa is going nowhere. I work for them and I can tell you, they’ll be a great value at any price under $1000
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Probably meant they aren't going anywhere and not that they are going nowhere.
He meant that they won’t be not going away nor going nowhere, not that they weren’t going anywhere. Slight difference.
Wbd
I don't see how one of the winners out of the streaming wars isn't WBD, they have a great content library and HBO's team is extremely good. I do wonder what the long-term profitability of this sector will be though.
Down almost 40% on WBD, they can not generate an income from creating films for theatres, they need to reimagine movie budgeting and marketing budget as a whole, they are burning cash with there only possible respite in streaming who they have to compete with netflix on, it is an uphill battle but there catalogue is phenomenal when you consider there inventory is mostly focused in large non superhero/action hero films.
Not gonna be profitable this year or next. What’s the story here?
Net free cash flow on average has been positive the past several quarters, and that's after paying down quite a large amount of debt. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/WBD/warner-bros-discovery/cash-flow-statement?freq=Q
When you say “net free cash flow,” what are you referring to? The calculation for free cash flow doesn’t account for debt repayment (which falls under financing cash flows), right? So are you saying free cash flows, net of big debt repayments, have been positive? If so, that’s definitely impressive, I’m just unclear on the meaning of “net free cash flow”.
profitable in this case is subjective. The have HUGE depreciation and amortisation costs, but in a lot of ways, their assets actually improve in value over time. Like Harry potter and Friends. Next they are paying off huge amounts of debt as a result of the merger. So while they arent 'profitable', its more the profits arent showing up in the typical way. They clearly will be very profitable soon, and those profits will be a third of their market cap. This is where standard ratios on their own are unfit for valuation, more important is the stocks journey and destination.
Do you think they have a chance at overturning Netflix?
Bought meta at 460 on that dip think it rips higher after earnings i genuinely think it’ll be beat buy back and split
I bought Meta at 451. Let’s ride this wave bro, election coming up too so that means more money funneled into meta’s pockets for the election campaign
100% she’s going back up to ath
Sold a whole set of mutual funds from my wife’s 401(K) to purchase META at $98 to lower my average to $134 overall around November 2022. I can’t think of a better stock to invest in even if I take profits, so I’m holding. 😊
Micron (MU). Maybe the least valued semiconductor stock. They are the shovel merchant of the AI goldrush.
+1 $MU and $LRCX. Memory is everything!
The good news is also the cyclical side of the business looks like it's turning as well. Made 40% on them already just on HBM for AI datacenters revenues.
+1 Micron. Just bought 23 shares of micron. HBM3E memory chips are a game changer for Nvidia’s AI accelerators.
I’m with you, their exposure to China doesn’t scare me. Famous last words? We’ll see.
How should we look at a company like Micron from a value investing perspective? Genuinely curious — I get a bit lost when current earnings are negative. What metrics do you use to evaluate for a cyclical like this?
Micron is a buy when it is trading near book value. The oppurtinity was there at the end of 2022
I dont. I bought it 2017 when it was a meme stock on WSB. And I never sold them.
Congrats, I’m jealous
Whats with the negative EPS?
BTI
BABA is dirt cheap too
AMZN. The quiet juggernaut.
Everything is not expensive, some technology stocks have elevated forward earnings projections and are for that reason priced the way they are. Some automakers, some European banks, and a few energy companies are all dirt cheap. Markets being forward-looking might miss this since risk outweighs expected growth for those industries. We'll see, some industries like semis seem close to overheating soon, we'll see what happens to the cheaper value companies then.
could you elaborate on the specific european bank and energy companies?
Check portuguese stock market … if tou have time check Galp, bcp, mota engil, ren, edp , greenvolt, altri, ramada , Jerónimo Martins …. If your into european stocks cheap ones …try this.
All portuguese stocks are in small cap territory with no growth. Only that can growth and generate growing cash flows are Jerónimo martins or galp, but theres no margin on safety on this ones. The buy on portuguese index was during financial debt crisis. For example Semapa its stil an undervalue holding but from 2012 to know if you held the stock and reinvest the dividends, you would be up 400%
Has to be BABA.
Of the mega caps? Google and Amazon are still not horrible purchases and have plenty of runway left.
SBUX.
PFE
How much?
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Holding that bitch at 28 for an year or so
I'm curious to hear more takes on PFE. I am considering adding to my position there.
Please do your own DD. There are two sharply divided camps. One side sees it as a value trap. A lumbering, old money bluechip that over extended itself with lofty M&A and Covid bets and got its ass handed to it while facing a reckoning with several incoming patent protection losses and a shaky pipeline. The other side, which is my side, sees it as a very well funded but temporarily punished company that has taken its licks but could probably only go up because part of what they were punished for was an ambitious M&A (Seagen) that will give them an incredible portfolio of oncology opportunities that will align with the CEO's public statements that Pfizer will work night and day to be the cancer therapy powerhouse of the future, which would solve the pipeline issue. In addition, it's capable of maintaining a healthy R&D budget and paying a .42 cent dividend per share, per quarter, with a goal of increasing it. All this, and at a very attractive entry price for what investors should expect to be a long hold. Just my take.
I’m a Pfizer shareholder. I absolutely agree with your analysis 😀
I’m curious to see how the Seagen pipeline plays out. I picked up a 1000 shares recently as a long term investment. Don’t mind collecting the dividend in the meantime.
I'm in the same boat. I'll cap out at 2000 shares if I can and put them on a dusty shelf and check back in 10 years from now.
VFC. Corporation that owns The North Face, Vans, Dickies and many more. Former CEO did his best to run it into the ground (80% decrease in share price from 3 years ago), and the new CEO, Bracken Darrel has done a great job overhauling the leadership team. I think the stock is undervalued at this level, but that it is also a turnaround play.
PPRUY is a 10x better turnaround play imo.
Seems like a decent value but the only segment that seems to be growing is the Kering eyewear.
I think that’s the turnaround part of the thesis. YSL and Bottega should improve before Gucci. They own 30% of Valentino which is doing well and they have the option to purchase 100% of it.
Definitely been a mess, the 5 year chart is unreal. But they’ve got some great brands. Bracken Darrel just did a big insider buy too, gives me the tiniest bit more confidence
NVDIA LMAO
Not a mega stock but I’m interested in Diageo. They own some brands that aren’t going anywhere (Guinness, Smirnoff, Johnnie Walker) and seem undervalued but maybe I’m missing something.
I would wait. I feel as though the declines are only beginning.
Only have a tiny position as I think you’re right, I think there is more bottom still but part of me thinks it could bounce from around 2400 if earnings aren’t terrible. What’s giving you your feeling?
Love me some Guinness and Johnny Walker, but net sales growth is negative 20-something percent in Latin America. They’re struggling there. There’s also a trend amongst gen Z for more sober lifestyles.
That’s a trend but they’re all smoking like there’s no tomorrow
I heard that yeah, I heard they have strong sales in India though which could be interesting. They love a whiskey.
A fun fact I was told at a distillery in Scotland: in India, more Johnnie Walker is sold every year than is produced in the entire world.
I’m in this industry and honestly it’s not worth investing in. I work for E&J Gallo and even though our sales and revenue are up it’s because of High Noon. Brown spirits are down and wine has been down for years. Diageo is in the same boat as Brown Forman right now. I’d look at them like tobacco stocks…
$NTDOY - Nintendo
Knowing the average user of this sub... BABA, NVDA, GME, INTC
Nah average user in this sub gonna say stuff like PM, WM, Costco ,DCA & go away
Just came here to say that INTC is not a mega stock anymore. Definition of “Mega” has changed with top 7 companies above $1T market cap. And top 3 above $3T
GME
I looked at them, very impressive financials. 4.2 billion in cash, no debt. The business at least at the moment looks like it burns some money. (Trimmed from long ago). It seems like even basic treasuries can float the losses.
It’s the fact that Ryan Cohen receives no salary for what he is doing. It’s a go hard or go home play
An overvalued unprofitable company that burns cash with absolutely insane PE ratio?
Unprofitable? 2023Y was profitable. Now the company has $4B in cash. Just the yield on the cash makes it profitable in 2024Y.
I like the stock
PANW
The famous investing legend Nancy Pelosi loves this stock!
Nancy pelosi loves this stock. I got leaps and piled up with it
They gobbled up so many companies now they have figure out a way to platform what they bought and sell them bundled to customers
Intc
What catalyst are you waiting for
Fabs reaching production capacity and massive US DoD contracts and upgrades requires made in America silicon.
Maybe waiting for it to budge from being exactly $30 until the end of time
I’ve been around long enough to remember when people said the same thing about MSFT during the Balmer Era. It was stagnant and a has-been. I loaded up then and am up over 1,300% now. I started a small position in INTC this week for a long-term hold. It’s a potential turnaround where I see the upside as much more favorable than the downside. My two cents at least. To each their own.
Imagine intel making quantum chips
Biggest problem with Intel is talent and management. I know a few people who work there and always brag about working 10-15 hours a week and not having crap to do.
Qualcomm,PE 21, 1.6% dividend. Earnings grow every quarter.
Micron (MU) is the only right answer. Least valued Major semiconductor stock right now. They sold out their entire year’s worth of supply for HBM3E and have already allocated most of 2025’s supply too. HBM3E is the fastest and most efficient memory chip that is used for DRAM and SRAM memory on Nvidia’s H200 tensor core GPU’s. Sk Hynix and Samsung are their competitors but micron has an edge over them as their chips save 30% more power than the competitors. Memory demand is on the rise and there will be a demand supply gap by the end of this year which will only increase the prices.
Surprised no one’s said ADBE (of course, before today). Not super undervalued but a great company at a slightly undervalued price. Bought on Tuesday, plan to hold forever barring massive overvaluation
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$BROS. Dutch Bros is planning on expanding up to 4K locations from 800 by 2040. The coffee and drink options taste so much better than Starbucks (IMO).
Alibaba
I agree, among the mega stocks, BABA is the most undervalued.
Why anybody would buy a Chinese stock is baffling.
AAPL. Still a long runway for the company
AAPL. Big upgrade cycle with Apple Intelligence; plus best consumer AI usefulness will drive multiple new revenue streams.
Some are mid caps: PARA, WBD, DNUT, MTCH, BMBL, S, PATH, CXM
Tencent
I'm bagholding LULU
QCOM and ETN
CCJ. Where do you think the world’s future energy needs are going to come from if not nuclear? They essentially have a monopoly on uranium.
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Rivian, sumoto, and my favorite LWLG Edit sumitomo
TTD. Trade Desk. They just keep making money.
Not quite mega cap but Adobe is one of the bigger stocks in the NASDAQ100 and definitely undervalued. I don't know why Adobe has sold off against the backdrop of this AI hype. I tried the new Adobe Express and could see how generative AI is adding a lot of value to their software. They are going to be the first to monetize generative AI. I love the idea of being able to generate content with prompts as a hobbyist and definitely was tempted to sub. Adobe has always been a rock solid growth company financially also. They increase revenue like clockwork.
PBR Petrobras. Fundamentals are crazy good. Bet on oil. Bet on US - Brazil currency exchange rates. But there's always a reason why the price is so low. As a value investor your job is call *bullshit* on the fear. Where and when it's justified. And so I do. You're allright Lula and all that trash they're talking about you is *bullshit*.
Lula wants to keep dividends with in Brazil. They could also cancel the dividend at anytime. They are just a publicly traded state monopoly company, buyer beware
I believe after the president of Brazil fired the CEO over dividend payments, the dividend is no longer 21%
TD Bank. One of the Big 6 in Canada and will never fail. Extremely profitable. Currently at a 2 year low.
I’ll always says ASTS because I’m in a full Conviction rn
Spacemob!
Evolution Gaming (EVO)
Nice combo of growth and value. Thanks for the heads up.
WBD, PBI, BABA
Perhaps Pfizer (PFE)? It's a \~$150b market cap stock that was $225b a year ago.
GME
Amkor is crazy undervalued
NET (Cloudflare) - Cyber, Edge compute, Ai 4 million customers around the world.
Right now QCOM and PANW I have leaps on and I think they look good. I had a leap on TSLA but sold it and I’m watching TSLA again but I think it needs to go down if they’re going to pay musk by selling more stock which would push the stock price down to 165 if they did it all today. MSFT is honestly still good but apple and nvidia feel like chasing but I’m still holding my positions in them for the long term. And only do day trading on them with options. Dell is high risk since it’s dancing on the 50SMA right now but I have a 100 share position cause I do think it will come back and it has a small dividend and am just selling otm call on it and if it gets called I’m fine with it. If there server business keeps doing well I’ll buy again if I get called or just buy more.
CVS, BA, PFE, and ILMN
SONY is in AI, Gaming, VR, and has a wide range of consumer goods. I understand that ADRs can be unattractive, but with Japan's inflation, interest rates at 0, and major investment potential with Japanese currency so cheap. It's a fantastic buy.
ADM, BABA,WBD, Arcadium Lithium
Paypal and Evolution ab are the only names I've looked at offering decent growth at a fair price rn
Once I started viewing Tesla as more of a software company then a Car Manufacturer. The more I see their stock as undervalued. Their FSD is not perfect but clearly ahead of the pack. Their enormous fleet of charging stations has a very big moat that other electric car manufacturers are no longer trying to compete with and are licensing from them makes it a very interesting long hold for me. Despite some of Elon’s antics.
Palantir, I’ll explain. I don’t know what they do, but I like everything about it in the current environment/hype cycle. AI, military defense spending, healthcare, huge contracts, and a first mover/ unique advantage. Just wish it wasn’t tied to Peter Thiel
They need to get more contracts in consumer sector and that would definitely help. Also, a merger with a military hardware company of sorts would help diversify their pipeline.
Rolls Royce 👌
$1.18 DCA 💁🏼♀️
Congrats! Super jealous of that one.
Autodesk
VZ and BAX
Snow, BA, intel
$gme
Tsla
Tesla at 182
Blink at 182
NVIDIA, because of poors post-split FOMO, financial institutions entrenching their positions, record Earnings and the impending launch of Blackwell architecture. It's about to go to 300$ by EoY. Conservative estimate..
Tesla!