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Profiteer23

Of the 16 short-term directional bets I've made in the past 3 months, all risking less than 2% of my overall port, 14 of them were wins, with the vast majority being a 15% - 50% gain. That's an 87.5% win rate. But I know if I got cocky and bet bigger I'd immediately lose it all. Such is life I guess.


monkman99

What about if you held for longer vs betting bigger?


Profiteer23

Depends. There have been at least a few where I near perfectly timed the buys and sells, and would have lost money trying to hold out for more. There have also been a few where I would have made a 100%+ gain if I had held longer. Overall though I'm happier with a high win-rate with modest wins rather than a more modest win-rate with larger wins and losses.


monkman99

Yeah I need to get in to that mindset. I also find that longer term options 3-6 months are the best. You usually get at least 2-3 shots at gains on a solid company especially in this market. Takes longer to ramp up but ya taking profits always works


DaPurpleMage

Hang Seng is just beyond repair at this point.


Mhuisy

Any1 in PYPL? Lots of reddit buzz around it on the mainland for a while now.


vaingloriousthings

I’ve started to look at it, but I’m pretty skeptical. Lack of growth in new users is concerning.


HibHops

I’m in PYPL decently. I’ve been in since after the sell off at last earnings and Vaz mentioned it in one of his videos. I think the buzz is mostly people hoping it’s the next Tesla or Meta for an easy 2x - 3x off this current bottom. Honestly I’m kind of hoping the same. I’ve seen a few DDs that made sense but I’m just thinking it’s fallen so much and sentiment is so negative that it seemed worth a shot.


Mhuisy

Yeah agreed makes sense I’ll probably do a starter position in case it comes down a bit after runup


Smooth_Strawberry_11

thoughts on CVS short term outlook? seems like a bottom atm


No_Cow_8702

Bottom was like $68


TarCress

Checked my gainz today because new port ATH again and the markets basically back to where it was in early 2022 before the bear market. Up over 318% since the lows in October-December 2022. Up 268% YTD All I did was mostly buy shares and shares of etfs while the SPX was below 4100 last year and earlier this year. Got some leaps too of course. any other bear ignorers get massive gains by simply buying stocks when they were low? Edit: I was down 40% of my port ATH from April 2022 in October 2022. It wasn’t all sunshine and roses but it was worth it to be long term investor last year after all.


vaingloriousthings

Damn!! I’m up a little over 50% YTD and thought I was doing well! That’s fantastic.


Mhuisy

HOLY shit nice man


HibHops

Just out of curiosity. Small port size or larger? I find myself taking more risks with my smaller side port as compare to my larger port where I’m more conservative. Congrats on the gains. That’s pretty crazy. Down 40% and then up 318% is wild. You obviously came out on top.


TarCress

This is my combined accounts, which I think is a large port now. It was 220k at the bottom. Now it is 920k. I’ve taken profits on the way so no way it’s going back to the depths anytime soon.


HibHops

Holy shit that’s incredible. Congrats. Almost at the 1 mil mark!


TarCress

Thanks. Hope I hit it this year. Promised the boyfriend I’d take him to cheesecake factory if the SPX hits all time high or I hit the mil mark, whichever first.


HibHops

What a treat. Get extra mozz sticks for the occasion.


TarCress

We would both know that your wife’s boyfriend loves those 😉


HibHops

![gif](giphy|3o6Zt4HU9uwXmXSAuI)


Varro35

Congrats and fuck yourself! Must have been a lot of leaps no?


TarCress

I went in on margin in January at 3800, sold in February, then went in on margin again in March at 3900 and bought leaps. I know it was probably irresponsible but I took profit so ig it’s all good at this point. (A lot of it was nvidia, 2x etfs, and semiconductor etfs)


emeraldream

holy sheeet man, congrats thats amazing.


TarCress

Thanks man. Believe it or not I still think I could’ve done better 🙃. But it’s good to hear from others that overall it’s pretty dang good.


HibHops

It can always be better… or it could have been worse. Taking profits is good risk management.


No_Cow_8702

Yep, buy dips and call it a day.


JayArlington

CVNA announces its reporting earnings tomorrow morning premarket. I smell dilution!


Historical_Total4964

Absolutely. I got burned a couple times buying puts on the way back up, even longer dated ones, so have been staying away. But that shitco deserves to tank, and anyone buying at 40 was playing with fire rivaling 0DTEs


Shmokeshbutt

No wonder it tanked AH. It'd be crazy not to dilute now. They should have learned the lesson from BBBY execs from August 2022


TradeTheZones

Can I interest you V-bears into tasty overlayor? ​ https://imgur.com/b3LHugM


Varro35

Somebody buying a fuckload of 7/21 230, 240 calls on CAT which is trading 260+. Why?


rt9o

Ex-div tomorrow so it's likely dividend capture using buy-write >Some stocks pay generous dividends every quarter. You qualify for the dividend if you are holding on the shares before the ex-dividend date. > >Many people have tried to buy the the shares just before the ex-dividend date simply to collect the dividend payout only to find that the stock price drop by at least the amount of the dividend after the ex-dividend date, effectively nullifying the earnings from the dividend itself. > >There is, however, a way to go about collecting the dividends using options. On the day before ex-dividend date, you can do a covered write by buying the dividend paying stock while simultaneously writing an equivalent number of deep in-the-money call options on it. The call strike price plus the premiums received should be equal or greater than the current stock price. > >On ex-dividend date, assuming no assignment takes place, you will have qualified for the dividend. While the underlying stock price will have drop by the dividend amount, the written call options will also register the same drop since deep-in-the-money options have a delta of nearly 1. You can then sell the underlying stock, buy back the short calls at no loss and wait to collect the dividends. > >The risk in using this strategy is that of an early assignment taking place before the ex-dividend date. If assigned, you will not be able to qualify for the dividends. Hence, you should ensure that the premiums received when selling the call options take into account all transaction costs that will be involved in case such an assignment do occur. > >Example > >In November, XYZ company has declared that it is paying cash dividends of $1.50 on 1st December. One day before the ex-dividend date, XYZ stock is trading at $50 while a DEC 40 call option is priced at $10.20. An options trader decides to play for dividends by purchasing 100 shares of XYZ stock for $5000 and simultaneously writing a DEC 40 covered call for $1020. > >On ex-dividend date, the stock price of XYZ drops by $1.50 to $48.50. Similarly, the price of the written DEC 40 call option also dropped by the same amount to $8.70. > >As he had already qualified for the dividend payout, the options trader decides to exit the position by selling the long stock and buying back the call options. Selling the stock for $4850 results in a $150 loss on the long stock position while buying back the call for $870 resulted in a gain of $150 on the short option position. > >As you can see, the profit and loss of both position cancels out each other. All the profit attainable from this strategy comes from the dividend payout - which is $150.


BigCatHugger

That deep ITM on weekly options means premium is basically zilch tho, and likelihood of not being called is also very low.


Varro35

>The risk in using this strategy is that of an early assignment taking place before the ex-dividend date. If assigned, you will not be able to qualify for the dividends. Hence, you should ensure that the premiums received when selling the call options take into account all transaction costs that will be involved in case such an assignment do occur. Right. These are massive block trades. The guy buying MUST be planning on early exercise to fuck over the counterparty. They are both big boys so not sure how they are trying to position here.


accumelator

and then you get exercised on early, while the price drops and you lose more then the dividend would pay out.


botbootybot

CCJ with a 52W high today (also happens to be 12 year high)


No_Cow_8702

Gang Green is in the building.


Sh00tFirstThinkNever

There's apparently a rumor of institutions getting ready to dump PLTR, but chart is a great range breakout. I will do nothing with this information - but I had to help spread rumors.


_beto619

Souce? I heard this also but it was more of a trust me bro


Suspicious-Pick3722

I saw it on the realdaytrading chat and individual when short 20k shares


PleasFlyAgain_PLTR

⚠️ This post/comment is no longer available. /u/spez is destroying 3rd party reddit apps, now I'm destroying my activity originally made with /r/AppolloApp. was I helpfull, funny, dumb? who knows ... (sorry if you where hoping to find something ☹️)


_beto619

Haha ok same source I thought I was getting confirmation


Sh00tFirstThinkNever

Yep. Same sauce boss. Sorry, I don't hear a lot of people reference that sub, so thought worth a mention if someone was in.


_beto619

yeah it's a good sub and the main guy who posted this is good - have looked at his trades. worth a follow.


Reddit_Talent_Coach

METC has discovered artificially intelligent coal deposits in its mining locations.


Gandhi_nukesalot

Pure mania… Spy 500 EOY


TarCress

Hope so. I want to get unsacrificed but I don’t think it will be straight line.


TitaniumTacos

I capitulate too 🏳️ Should’ve never bought puts this morning. Was on a hot streak with SPY calls. I didn’t think SPY had another +0.5% day in her before a sizable correction….


Veqq

Decided to take profit and sold half my WAL calls, still hold 42k shares. Up 9% today, just wow


Mobile_Donkey_6924

![gif](giphy|tEXUQQqQkjyV2)


ScreamingOffspring

While I wasn’t a bear, I was certainly not bullish and just waiting on the sidelines. I’m capitulating now and putting myself back in the market.


SlightlyPeculiar

Time to sell


fabr33zio

What is this market?


Steely_Hands

![gif](giphy|mb410b43HO7aU) We’ll see how long it lasts


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No_Cow_8702

\*In Beyonce's voice All the stonks go up to the right.


ClevelandCliffs-CLF

Wild one.


Astronomer_Soft

No news about ATVI other than the meta-news from the options market. * 7/21 95c still bid. I saw some go for $0.60. Must be retail. Lots of chatter on stocktwits and yahoo finance boards where people have convinced themselves that MSFT will pay up for an extension. * IV up on 3dte on the wings. Bids for 80p and 85p for 7/21 creeping up, $0.14 and $0.36 as a write this. * 95c for the liquid 1/19/24 and 1/17/25 issues have been creeping up through the day. I sold a few 95c's for Jan24's at $1.73 and Jan25's at $2.20. Usually, at this time in the deal cycle, IV would have collapsed, and you'd be barely getting any premium for puts and zero premium for calls above the deal price. Market is telling us that there are not only wildly divergent theories about how the end game will play out, but that there's serious money behind the different points of view to keep IV up on the OTM wings on this ticker.


CramsyAU

Sold my NFLX call. $1,000 closer to driveway heaven.


neocoff

Nutella is chad material. Pichai…not so much.


Reddit_Talent_Coach

Hi kids, can I interest you in some metallurgical coal stocks? I got in before The Starrett corporation broke ground on the Empire State Building and it’s been a boomin’ ever since. Sold some shares to buy war bonds though as was my patriotic duty at the time…


Varro35

Puts on CLF again. Otherwise long CMC.


ClevelandCliffs-CLF

I wish you no luck, sadly. Hahah And earnings on MONDAY!!!


Varro35

Just a temporary position m'lord. Good luck.


ClevelandCliffs-CLF

Ok ok ok. I’ll approve it. Haha


accumelator

![gif](giphy|l2SpSEaf8ytuBNNwQ|downsized)


Varro35

![gif](giphy|U6Fxnc2jTlBh2GKCTU)


JayArlington

[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington) Jay Trading is LIVE in 5 mins (12:40 EST). QQQ Rebalancing, MSFT AI announcements, Blackrock and Aramco, Banks, NVS, and more earnings action! ![gif](giphy|asMbV1lEhpcKnsbnSU)


HibHops

Can CVS hold $72? Looks like no. Am I surprised? Also, no.


_beto619

Ex Divi date coming up 7/20 might sell some calls and rebuy after


No_Cow_8702

She ain't shy no mor.


Suspicious-Pick3722

It is no longer a question of “will the market test ATHs this year” but rather “when will it” SPY 500 is a very realistic target given the current momentum in the market especially consider the soft landing / inflation beat narrative isn’t fully priced in and if the big boys provide good guidance then buckle up cause it’s 🚀


Steely_Hands

I think the soft landing/done with inflation narrative is largely priced in at this point. What it comes down to now is 2024 earnings and what multiple we want to put on it. I still like 19x $240 or 18x $250 which puts us around 4500 EOY


Suspicious-Pick3722

Has MSFT cured cancer and Alzheimer’s


SN715622917X

Wait, aren't you the expert on crazy bullish moves? ;-)


PlayingForPrettyLong

Saw a headline about commercialising AI bing with META


JayArlington

Three different announcements.


PlayingForPrettyLong

Ill hear it from you on stream!


may344

Rotation into msft lol. As soon as I decided to grab one spy put to hedge instantly up crazy.


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vaingloriousthings

I sold covered calls earlier today. Bought them back at a 1k loss and then held. Also bought a ton more shares and sold when they were about 2% up. Crazy.


Suspicious-Pick3722

No need to hedge this market but if you want to best approach is BTFD


may344

That seems like a good way to get caught offsides, granted this market has some insane strength lol


may344

Grabbed one August 18th 440p for a hedge. Riding 45 Wal calls for earnings


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bobby_axelrod555

I like your news updates with humour


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bobby_axelrod555

one of us.. one of us..


spodgywaffles

Bought a lot of September TSM calls today. Feeling confident which is usually a bad sign though


_beto619

Flow was boolish


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spodgywaffles

Meh, sounds like bear porn. Don't think that's different from any other year


PlayingForPrettyLong

If china invades it sure as hell wont be just TSM thats down…


purju

oooh i love it, more tsm in da port


SteelColdKegs

**Business Inventories MoM** **MAY -** Actual 0.2%; Previous 0.1% ~~0.2%~~; Consensus 0.2% **NAHB Housing Market Index** **JUL -** Actual 56; Previous 55; Consensus 56 [Business Inventories Report](https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf) [NAHB Housing Market Source](https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index)


EMHURLEY

I think we can safely say the banking crisis is behind us.


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PlayingForPrettyLong

The loss on Bank of America BAC +4.06% ’s huge portfolio of debt securities widened by nearly $7 billion to $105.8 billion in the second quarter, according to supplemental data disclosed in conjunction with the bank’s earnings release Tuesday morning. The “held-to-maturity” debt portfolio where the losses are located totaled $614 billion at the end of the quarter, down from nearly $625 billion at the end of the March quarter. Seems like their HTM debt portfolio shrunk 11 billion, despite the 7 billion increase. Why leave that out?


Necessary-Shallot976

Do we think GS has been sand-bagging so hard in their messaging, only to deliver a big surprise on guidance? Morgan CEO is on CNBC right now, saying that the deal-making environment bottomed out 4-6 weeks ago and that 2024 is going to see huge volume. I'm beginning to suspect that GS will deliver ridiculous forward guidance, completely overshadowing most recent quarter's results. /u/JayArlington, curious to hear your take, I know you're looking for a GS entry.


JayArlington

I don't know. Should have a shit Q and yet their guide should be optimitic at least in commentary.


Necessary-Shallot976

Edit: I withdraw the statement below, the IV being used to price 20230721 options is \~2x historical volatility - IV crush w/b hard to beat on GS. It's a tough one to play with specific directionality, it looks pretty binary to me - the rip up following MS today is pricing in strong guidance, but the messaging from GS has been giving off strong "we shit the bed on this one..." vibes. Think I'll take a cut at it with a straddle, should either rip hard or dip hard; when in doubt, bet on volatility.


JayArlington

There never was a banking crisis. Instead we had a crisis of shitcos. Looking at the market... there are still a few left.


JayArlington

![gif](giphy|b3efR7BzOKDXa) Make em say UNH!


_-Stoop-Kid-_

Damn.. great call and great timing


Veqq

WAL having a 7% day already and earninfs are afterhours!


vaingloriousthings

Might be good time to sell


soberasagoose

“50 is the new 30” - AEHR, probably


hk20000

I wan it to drop so i can buy more


FirstAvailable1

CLF earnings next week. Get your Thank ready. ‘Bout to go from negative to positive, and if you don’t know, now you know!


CongenialFellow

Fuck TX.


ClevelandCliffs-CLF

I know a little about this stock, but you expand. Tech company? Hahahah


Auntie_Aircraft_Gun

It was all a dream I used to read Vito on my screen CLF and LG up in the limousine Tuning to the earnings call


No_Cow_8702

But X gonna give it to ya!


RonMexico13

HRC supercycle, no steel apocalypse Timna's dead broke now she couldn't picture this


SimokonGames

Your username 👍


SteelColdKegs

**Industrial Production MoM** **JUN -** Actual (-0.5%); Previous (-0.5%) ~~(-0.2%)~~; Consensus 0% **Industrial Production YoY** **JUN -** Actual (-0.4%); Previous 0.2%; Consensus 1.1% **Capacity Utilization** **JUN -** Actual 78.9%; Previous 79.4% ~~79.6%~~; Consensus 79.5% [Report](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/g17.pdf)


Film-Icy

Someone in here liked deckers $deck Hoka just dropped a new kids shoe line and I definitely think w the Nike boycott many have this revenue stream will do great for them. I love my hokas


SteelColdKegs

**Retail Sales MoM** **JUN -** Actual 0.2%; Previous 0.5% ~~0.3%~~; Consensus 0.5% **Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM** **JUN -** Actual 0.2%; Previous 0.3% ~~0.1%~~; Consensus 0.3% **Retail Sales YoY** **JUN -** Actual 1.49%; Previous 1.61% ~~1.6%~~; Consensus 1.6% **Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM** **JUN -** Actual 0.3%; Previous 0.5% ~~0.4%~~; Consensus 0.0% [Report](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf)


EMHURLEY

SCHW a few minutes late releasing earnings had me worried 😅 Earnings: - Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.75 beats by $0.04 - Revenue of $4.66B (-8.4% Y/Y) beats by $50M Pre-market likes it, I’ll be pleased if we can hold above $60


malydok

Congrats man, wish I had conviction when it went to the lows.


vaingloriousthings

In retrospect the obvious move was KRE.


Historical_Total4964

Finally. I’ve been holding 1300 shares since mis-timing the buy at $59. The 7/21 62c we’re selling for .27 last week and instead I decided to play STNG earnings in a couple weeks so I still have regrets.


EMHURLEY

My first entry of 1100 shares was at $60 when the CEO bought which was obviously way too early. Bought another 1300 in the $49-$50 range which helped the average big-time. Just a waiting game after that


Historical_Total4964

We probably bought at about the same time. I didn’t have the capital to double down in the 40s at the time unfortunately. I did manage to drop my cost to 55 selling covered calls.


spacrunner

Yeah SCHW required some patience from a few months ago but today paid off very nicely 150% return in ITM options


monkman99

I did well on schw calls and bought some ikbr weeklies hoping they can mimic schw. We will see


EMHURLEY

Well done. I don’t trade options but wish I had for this one


monkman99

Yeah market seems to love it


Suspicious-Pick3722

Man I completely missed that XLK closed at ATHs yesterday! Well no bag holders now time to keep the Tech party bus going


mickeyfee

I'm short tech today ![img](emote|t5_3pnc7d|3073).. wish me luck![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|facepalm)


mickeyfee

Not going well ![img](emote|t5_3pnc7d|3073)


Mhuisy

Interesting trading rev was a miss *MORGAN STANLEY 2Q NET REV. $13.46B, EST. $13.11B *MS 2Q EQUITIES SALES & TRADING REV $2.55B, EST. $2.38B *MORGAN STANLEY 2Q FICC SALES & TRADING REV $1.72B, EST. $1.97B MS 2Q EPS $1.24, EST 1.15


Reddit_Talent_Coach

What’s FICC?


EMHURLEY

The [Fixed Income Clearing Corporation](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/ficc.asp#:~:text=The%20Fixed%20Income%20Clearing%20Corporation%20is%20a%20clearinghouse%20for%20certain,Depository%20Trust%20and%20Clearing%20Corporation) is a clearinghouse for certain fixed-income securities traded in the U.S. The agency functions as a subsidiary of the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation.


Reddit_Talent_Coach

Thanks!


Mhuisy

Think it’s a type of fixed income investing not 100% sure tho


Sportfreunde

Is bitcoin looking like a decent swing trade here or is that a canary in coal mine little dip?


SN715622917X

Any thoughts on TSLA earnings? Sales increased, but they significantly lowered prices to make that happen. They never had great margins to start with (which I assume is normal for an automotive company), so chances are profits will suck. After their recent run, P/E is already at 85, and with every other auto company now hopping onto the EV train, I don't see a whole lot of room for them to grow other than maybe with one of their sideshows.


Suspicious-Pick3722

I’m not intending playing TSLA, but folks are finally waking up to this is a bull market, this stock can (does) act like a meme, yesterday it closed at the trendline from ATHs and breaks through that it can easily run to 340s Given the current momentum in the market the slightest sign of positive/improved earnings/guide then 🚀


TheyWereGolden

Tesla has excellent margins in auto, that’s why they can cut price and still make profit,the others can’t, that said no clue about earnings. Probably keeping the promise self driving this year which is running out of months. Probably hype about cyber truck.


accumelator

Japan Steelworks closed +0.97%


apooroldinvestor

So I'm working at McDs for about 21 year now. Started as a dishwasher, then flipped hamburgers, now I've been promoted to driv thru and got a raise to $12.50. Been investing $25 a week for almost 20 years and I'm pretty well set! Don't let anyone tell you it can't be done!


SoFi_Best

Proof?


Suspicious-Pick3722

![gif](giphy|3o85xIgrOozChYrYCk)


IceEngine21

![gif](giphy|MXFGeEovd8hEHIBLLH)


fabr33zio

Bob?


tendiemountain

Finally some proper recognition. Today will be a good day.


Mobile_Donkey_6924

![gif](giphy|op2Br9pDuAIQo)


ClevelandCliffs-CLF

Great movie


Suspicious-Pick3722

![gif](giphy|DPx5PQTRRNYha)