I know it does. But even with that, after time you make your averages, and are able to tell when things are not within that normal range. And I'd understand 1 or 2. But the last 6 or 7 is a lot
It’s not really. We’re more inclined to notice when things don’t go our way. Without actually tracking all the data chances are our perception isn’t the most accurate.
Just RNG. I have gotten 5 Mythics in the last 2 10 forges myself. Rng can have streaks of lows and highs as long as it averages out over the long run.
Sucks when your in a low run though.
I got 3 in the last 2 10 forges. but like i said the last 6 or 7 have been lower than they used to be, hope is just a streak like you say. Bright side is all those can still be sold for mythril
Just you. And me too. Last 5 10-pulls i've gotten only 1 red each pull. So 10% for a while.
That being said, i've had bad luck with mostly everything in the game so i'm grown to expect this.
You know I was just wondering this today.
I think Moonton (who I generally DO think is one of the better companies out there. MUCH better than Plarium at least) plays fast and loose with the rate drops.
I'm pretty convinced that every single % is fudged in this game tbh.
They havent exactly been giving us reasons to think so.
On the topic i have had the exact samt experience and also 0 hero specific artifacts from 20ish pulls there.
Extremely insignificant sample sizes.. But there is also supposed to be a 20% drop rate. If my percieved odd tells me i should have 4 on average it makes getting 0 feel pretty fucking shitty, while i have gotten about 10 legendary drops, which is also supposed to be only 20%. One could argue that kinda makes it even schteven, if it werent för the fact that it always seem to swing in the wrong fucking direction.
Doesn't really matter what the "actual odds" are. It's a game and random is a manifactured concept. Manifacture it so i feels better please and thank you.
Now that you mention, my guild leader has said the same about the exclusive artifact. He's gone 2 or 3 weeks without getting a single exclusive.
And yeah, RNG and % could make it all even, but to me it feels bellow the average I've been seeing for a long time.
They nerfed gear (drop rates and quality) so ppl went to do amr instead, makes sense they'd nerf it to slow us down again. Tinfoil hat thought, but they have given reasons to be sus
It can be. But enough to notice a difference with the average forge from the times before that. Yeah, I've had bad 20x in the forge, but was sporadic. 6-7 (bellow that average) in a row, that's a noticeable thing.
And makes me sus considering moonton history for silent nerfs.
Maybe is nothing and is just a really bad luck streak
Operate in the assumption that everything has been nerfed, because chances are it has been. I love this game, but man do I hate to see what they've made of it.
Unfortunately their track record of this makes it impossible for me to believe that they haven't changed rates. Folks can down vote me all they want, I've kept records since day one. This was a huge part of why I stopped making content for them
u/CAPATOB_64 just did 70 and got 9, that's 12.8%.
Yes it's a small sample size, but significantly below the 14 expected.
I don't intend to tinfoil hat this, we should all be keeping an eye on whether or not things are sliding downwards and in my experience, it definitely is. I got two ancients from 700 runs on gr2- less than 1/3 what was expected. They quiet nerfed the ancient rates when they did the half energy cost event- this was evident in a gigantic crowd sourced data set. It's absolutely something they manipulate.
I entirely agree! It isn't this one, it's the pattern. I'm on day 308, I've played this game *hard* (level 96) and I can say without a shadow of a doubt I've had more "bad luck" in the last 60 days than I did in all of the 240 in front of them.
The R in RNG stands for random.
I know it does. But even with that, after time you make your averages, and are able to tell when things are not within that normal range. And I'd understand 1 or 2. But the last 6 or 7 is a lot
It’s not really. We’re more inclined to notice when things don’t go our way. Without actually tracking all the data chances are our perception isn’t the most accurate.
Just you bud.
thanks
Just RNG. I have gotten 5 Mythics in the last 2 10 forges myself. Rng can have streaks of lows and highs as long as it averages out over the long run. Sucks when your in a low run though.
I got 3 in the last 2 10 forges. but like i said the last 6 or 7 have been lower than they used to be, hope is just a streak like you say. Bright side is all those can still be sold for mythril
Just you. And me too. Last 5 10-pulls i've gotten only 1 red each pull. So 10% for a while. That being said, i've had bad luck with mostly everything in the game so i'm grown to expect this.
You know I was just wondering this today. I think Moonton (who I generally DO think is one of the better companies out there. MUCH better than Plarium at least) plays fast and loose with the rate drops.
I'm pretty convinced that every single % is fudged in this game tbh. They havent exactly been giving us reasons to think so. On the topic i have had the exact samt experience and also 0 hero specific artifacts from 20ish pulls there. Extremely insignificant sample sizes.. But there is also supposed to be a 20% drop rate. If my percieved odd tells me i should have 4 on average it makes getting 0 feel pretty fucking shitty, while i have gotten about 10 legendary drops, which is also supposed to be only 20%. One could argue that kinda makes it even schteven, if it werent för the fact that it always seem to swing in the wrong fucking direction. Doesn't really matter what the "actual odds" are. It's a game and random is a manifactured concept. Manifacture it so i feels better please and thank you.
Now that you mention, my guild leader has said the same about the exclusive artifact. He's gone 2 or 3 weeks without getting a single exclusive. And yeah, RNG and % could make it all even, but to me it feels bellow the average I've been seeing for a long time. They nerfed gear (drop rates and quality) so ppl went to do amr instead, makes sense they'd nerf it to slow us down again. Tinfoil hat thought, but they have given reasons to be sus
6-7 is way to small of a sample size
It can be. But enough to notice a difference with the average forge from the times before that. Yeah, I've had bad 20x in the forge, but was sporadic. 6-7 (bellow that average) in a row, that's a noticeable thing. And makes me sus considering moonton history for silent nerfs. Maybe is nothing and is just a really bad luck streak
Operate in the assumption that everything has been nerfed, because chances are it has been. I love this game, but man do I hate to see what they've made of it.
well i thought that too, since they like to do silent nerfs made me wonder.
Unfortunately their track record of this makes it impossible for me to believe that they haven't changed rates. Folks can down vote me all they want, I've kept records since day one. This was a huge part of why I stopped making content for them
This one is fairly easy to test. Do it 100x, tell us the % mythic 🤷♂️.
u/CAPATOB_64 just did 70 and got 9, that's 12.8%. Yes it's a small sample size, but significantly below the 14 expected. I don't intend to tinfoil hat this, we should all be keeping an eye on whether or not things are sliding downwards and in my experience, it definitely is. I got two ancients from 700 runs on gr2- less than 1/3 what was expected. They quiet nerfed the ancient rates when they did the half energy cost event- this was evident in a gigantic crowd sourced data set. It's absolutely something they manipulate.
Thanks for adding me. [Here’s the post for convenience](https://www.reddit.com/r/WatcherofRealmsGame/s/uWBgPf0vWO)
There’s about a 4% chance of that through bad luck. Not enough for me to say it’s nerfed but sus.
The sus part cause like he says, they've done it before. And that's why I'm sure as well
I entirely agree! It isn't this one, it's the pattern. I'm on day 308, I've played this game *hard* (level 96) and I can say without a shadow of a doubt I've had more "bad luck" in the last 60 days than I did in all of the 240 in front of them.