Yep. I hope it crashes as I want to buy. Got deposit waiting and sick of renting. But unfortunately they'll just up the immigration.
Though what if the jobless rate significantly increases? Upping immigration would be like pouring petrol on the fire.
Global slowdown is on its way and I think Australia is cooked either way. Best they can do is delay it and drag it out, but that can sometimes make it worse.
This is the biggest issue that people need to understand. The housing market is literally rigged and actively manipulated. Inquiries and reforms (financial, legal, professional) are kept at bay, money laundering and selling to rich overseas residents encouraged, demand artificially inflated via immigration, government keeps pumping money into the sector via grants and programs to “help” ownership, etc. etc. etc.
There will be no significant reforms until after the market crashes spectacularly.
The market won’t crash spectacularly if the government can do anything about it.
When it inevitably does, no-one knows, but it could be decades away. They’d rather see half the market owned by chinese, other half by Indians and renting for life be the new normal before actually doing anything to reduce prices.
>The market won’t crash spectacularly if the government can do anything about it.
I expect the government is OK with runaway double digit inflation if it keep house prices from dropping.
Unfortunately its not as simple as singling out one group. eg. first home buyers are often propped up by parents. Other buyers might look on the surface as buying for themselves, but actually holding property for others. ASIO has made it clear the market is wide open to laundering, plus loads of money coming in from overseas, cushy tax policies benefit investors over owners, etc.
Add to that the fact that you don’t need the whole market to be propped up/ manipulated: prices are driven by outliers. eg. you might have a street with 50 houses. You only need one to sell 15% over reserve/ expectations, and every person on that street (and beyond) adjusts what they think their house is worth, regardless of everything else.
Most investors won't be forced to sell when tenants are paying their mortgages and majority investors are sitting 60-80% LVR. Only home occupiers are going to be forced to sell as they need to fork out the cash themselves.
Less than 10% of the population is negatively geared, and that does not include depreciation which means a lot are negatively geared with positive cash flow.
Even in this sub, bubbles are misunderstood.
They very rarely have to do with supply/demand of houses (china being an exception).
It's the other side of the equation (money/credit) which bubbles. Houses are just the transmission mechanism.
In the regions prices might come down more. Areas along the coast that saw a massive covid bump with WFH are already coming down considerably, but these areas are harder to measure as houses are more unique and have less houses being traded. The price difference between on the beach and a street back is massive for example.
Areas like Rosebud, Geelong or out near the great ocean road are already a lot softer.
These areas are also less popular with migrants.
Yes, but the recent boom is from affordability and how the market has not moved since 2013 or so. At 2011 Perth was called similar to Sydney. At that time it was mining that made it boom like that.
Now with working from home, affordability and a market that hadn't moved in over 10 years, everyone and their dog is buying property in Perth. This is not because of mining.
There would need to be a number of things to cause a crash of that type and it's very unlikely to happen. Massive layoffs, drop in migration, over supply of new developments.
There is so much money still in the system and coming from overseas and a massive undersupply of new properties.
There is a chance the market may stagnate for a few years but at the moment people are buying up everything they can and it's at all ends of the market.
2 years after next development boom *which comes after gov announces inititives /incentives to build more houses. Aaand we end up back where we are now.
I don’t know tbh, but I reckon it’s a couple months after rate cuts ( because unemployment is the trigger)
Secondly, itl probably take many years to bottom. The GFC took the US 6 years from peak to trough
I think that could happen early 2025
The AI forecast in government ranks is by 2035 48% of todays current jobs will be obsolete, they aren’t hiding it WEF, IMF, Silicon Valley and Stanford have all published papers over the last decade. So over the next decade as it ramps up and job losses kick in and becomes reality, I am going to say 2026 is when the slide will begin after the world wide elections are settled and BRICS has formed its new world alliance, trading partners are sorted.
Lol you are delusional, housing market in Aus is government backed, there is no way there will be a crash at least in the near to medium future.
Its BAU for the gov, no plans to change negative gearing or increase supply
70% of the Federal Parliament are Landlords with at least one investment property. Many have two or three, and one has ten. You think that cohort wants to see a crash?
Mate 4 months ago you "predicted" a 15% drop across the country, but since then nothing has changed and you have increased your prediction to 30% - seemingly with nothing to back it up.
You are delusional.
500k immigrants per year go burr
Yep. I hope it crashes as I want to buy. Got deposit waiting and sick of renting. But unfortunately they'll just up the immigration. Though what if the jobless rate significantly increases? Upping immigration would be like pouring petrol on the fire. Global slowdown is on its way and I think Australia is cooked either way. Best they can do is delay it and drag it out, but that can sometimes make it worse.
This is the biggest issue that people need to understand. The housing market is literally rigged and actively manipulated. Inquiries and reforms (financial, legal, professional) are kept at bay, money laundering and selling to rich overseas residents encouraged, demand artificially inflated via immigration, government keeps pumping money into the sector via grants and programs to “help” ownership, etc. etc. etc. There will be no significant reforms until after the market crashes spectacularly. The market won’t crash spectacularly if the government can do anything about it. When it inevitably does, no-one knows, but it could be decades away. They’d rather see half the market owned by chinese, other half by Indians and renting for life be the new normal before actually doing anything to reduce prices.
This comment spot on 👌
>The market won’t crash spectacularly if the government can do anything about it. I expect the government is OK with runaway double digit inflation if it keep house prices from dropping.
The only hope would be prices stay stable for 10 years while wages catch up. But that’s a long shot
Who are the Main buyers ? First home buyers? Indians? Chinese? Over seas investors?
Unfortunately its not as simple as singling out one group. eg. first home buyers are often propped up by parents. Other buyers might look on the surface as buying for themselves, but actually holding property for others. ASIO has made it clear the market is wide open to laundering, plus loads of money coming in from overseas, cushy tax policies benefit investors over owners, etc. Add to that the fact that you don’t need the whole market to be propped up/ manipulated: prices are driven by outliers. eg. you might have a street with 50 houses. You only need one to sell 15% over reserve/ expectations, and every person on that street (and beyond) adjusts what they think their house is worth, regardless of everything else.
How are house prices going to crash when there is no supply and high demand?
Lol yeah, unless the government changes something drastically it's impossible
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Most investors won't be forced to sell when tenants are paying their mortgages and majority investors are sitting 60-80% LVR. Only home occupiers are going to be forced to sell as they need to fork out the cash themselves.
[удалено]
Less than 10% of the population is negatively geared, and that does not include depreciation which means a lot are negatively geared with positive cash flow.
Even in this sub, bubbles are misunderstood. They very rarely have to do with supply/demand of houses (china being an exception). It's the other side of the equation (money/credit) which bubbles. Houses are just the transmission mechanism.
>It's the other side of the equation (money/credit) which bubbles. Houses are just the transmission mechanism. Bingo!!
Same as what happend during Covid. Low supply high demand. It’ll just cause demand destruction.
Nagganahappen.
Probably buy my first house...
This sub 😂
My guess is there’s no drop at all let alone a crash.
Selling mine though. Unfortunately due to divorce.
I mean Melbourne there's a chance. Everywhere else? Nah.
Why will it happen in melbourne and not elsewhere ?
Increased dumping of properties by investors due to increased land taxes. More houses built then anywhere else nationally due to flatter terrain.
In the regions prices might come down more. Areas along the coast that saw a massive covid bump with WFH are already coming down considerably, but these areas are harder to measure as houses are more unique and have less houses being traded. The price difference between on the beach and a street back is massive for example. Areas like Rosebud, Geelong or out near the great ocean road are already a lot softer. These areas are also less popular with migrants.
Seems plausible for Perth if there is another mining downturn.
This Perth boom is not from mining though
Half of Australias entire exports is from mining head queatered in Perth.
Yes, but the recent boom is from affordability and how the market has not moved since 2013 or so. At 2011 Perth was called similar to Sydney. At that time it was mining that made it boom like that. Now with working from home, affordability and a market that hadn't moved in over 10 years, everyone and their dog is buying property in Perth. This is not because of mining.
There would need to be a number of things to cause a crash of that type and it's very unlikely to happen. Massive layoffs, drop in migration, over supply of new developments. There is so much money still in the system and coming from overseas and a massive undersupply of new properties. There is a chance the market may stagnate for a few years but at the moment people are buying up everything they can and it's at all ends of the market.
2 years after next development boom *which comes after gov announces inititives /incentives to build more houses. Aaand we end up back where we are now.
First home owners grant of 1m to all new home owners
Prices won’t fall nominally but will go down in real terms
America wants to sanction Chinese banks that would mess Australia up.
I don’t know tbh, but I reckon it’s a couple months after rate cuts ( because unemployment is the trigger) Secondly, itl probably take many years to bottom. The GFC took the US 6 years from peak to trough I think that could happen early 2025
The AI forecast in government ranks is by 2035 48% of todays current jobs will be obsolete, they aren’t hiding it WEF, IMF, Silicon Valley and Stanford have all published papers over the last decade. So over the next decade as it ramps up and job losses kick in and becomes reality, I am going to say 2026 is when the slide will begin after the world wide elections are settled and BRICS has formed its new world alliance, trading partners are sorted.
Do you have a link to the 48% figure I’d love to have a read.
I will go look for it and post it. It is on their webpages they are not hiding anything. 15 min cities didn’t come from no where.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/15/tech/imf-global-employment-risk-ai-intl-hnk/index.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2023/03/31/goldman-sachs-predicts-300-million-jobs-will-be-lost-or-degraded-by-artificial-intelligence/
https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/s/9UF6Sw9mBC
2026 into 2027. That's all
When people think house prices are going to keep going up that’s usually when……they don’t
Lol you are delusional, housing market in Aus is government backed, there is no way there will be a crash at least in the near to medium future. Its BAU for the gov, no plans to change negative gearing or increase supply
70% of the Federal Parliament are Landlords with at least one investment property. Many have two or three, and one has ten. You think that cohort wants to see a crash?
It’s happening now before your eyes wahahshahaha
Mate 4 months ago you "predicted" a 15% drop across the country, but since then nothing has changed and you have increased your prediction to 30% - seemingly with nothing to back it up. You are delusional.
We will see
Atayls 2.0
I trust you bro lol
Mate, house prices are on the rise still since 2022. The opposite is happening before our eyes.