The following submission statement was provided by /u/Arkbolt:
---
Once again, climate change is proving to be a food problem. As carbon emissions inexorably continue upwards, major climatic changes are causing substantial changes in the agricultural industry. Expect to see more damage in the agricultural sector and high premiums for future staple production around the world.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dgsqck/climate_graphic_of_the_week_record_rainfall_in_uk/l8s3bbm/
Once again, climate change is proving to be a food problem. As carbon emissions inexorably continue upwards, major climatic changes are causing substantial changes in the agricultural industry. Expect to see more damage in the agricultural sector and high premiums for future staple production around the world.
I know it's kinda the expected perspective from an article on FT but come on... "pushing milling-wheat futures on the Euronext exchange to their highest levels in a year" and "there is a real risk that a poor harvest in France could drive up prices."
In a not-too-distant future the real concern will be "there is a real risk that a poor harvest in France could lead to food insecurity in Algeria and Morocco, their main export markets for wheat".
"This heavier rainfall had become around 10 times more likely as a result of climate change, the researchers estimated."
Damn. Our disregard for maintaining a livable climate comes back to us in spades.
Last year had twice the amount of rain as the year before, and this year has so far had twice the amount of rain that we had this time last year, with the rainiest summer on record predicted.
So yeah, it just keeps getting rainier and rainier.
It's because we are surrounded by sea. Sea that is rapidly warming. This leads to MUCH more precipitation and therefore rain for islands or areas near the sea. The gulf stream means that the UK and France get the brunt of it.
Areas far from the ocean see major droughts. Areas close to the sea see much more rainfall.
If a crop fails in a US state A , and another state B has reserves of that crop and assume there is collapse all around. Can state B avoid sharing/ or has legal rights to not share it's reserve to another state A? Or the Federal govt takes over in this case
Well, the great majority of the crops in the US are grown in California, for use by the whole country. The majority of the rest is grown in grain growing states, including corn. Plus then you have a scatteirng of crops growing in other states likely to help supplement even further for locally.
It's slightly more complicated than that. The UK is roughly self sufficient in some areas (most meats, dairy, and notably for this story wheat) whilst particularly fresh fruit and salad vegetables is where the UK imports a lot. That means if there was a hit to fruit & vegetable production the impact would be fairly small as the UK usually imports a lot anyway, but because it's wheat, where the UK usually hovers around self sufficiency, it's going to have a big global impact on supply and prices.
Wow that’s terrifying but makes so much sense, I notice how rainy it is where I am but I hope it means that at least there won’t be wildfires like last summer
im in the uk and its raining right now as we speak lmao. It has been pretty bad for everyday weather with no winter type storms rolling in tbh. Although i would say that december should have been the worst recorded month for the UK rainfall, as in scotland almost every major road was closed, trainlines looked like canals, there was landslides and flooded houses. Once it had passed us it went to ireland and england and wiped them out as well with flooding. I will say that since that event, public transport has never been the same, we are currently always having closures and diversions so it makes it kinda hard to get around
it doesn’t feel like summer, nature just feels broken. My bedroom is technically in the attic and in the summer it gets unbearably hot because the sun heats it up but the weather has been so miserable ive had to put my heating on. We have had a few thunderstorms too which is nothing crazy but definitely out the norm for where im located both in time of year and frequency
i think this year will be the last “normal” year if we even get to the end of the year without that happening first
Also UK here, weather has been fucking WEIRD and those floods a few months ago touched basically everywhere in the country
Even with our upcoming change in government, things will still get worse... Just slower
Same about the heating. I've had to put the heating on twice this June because my room was unbearably cold, it felt like November. I've been renaming the UK "wet Alaska" cuz it feels like we're trapped in perpetual soggy winter.
I know for a fact from someone in France right now that it's been constantly raining. Neat, maybe I should invest in a flour mill and a few containers of the stuff. Looking forward to bread and pasta tripling in price /s
On the plus side, climate change is helping us cut carbs.
Unfortunately when there are no carbs/grains available, humans rely on meat. The problem is our industrial mixed agriculture methods, long ago implemented farming grains at scale to feed cows and pigs. Corn and soy mostly, right? So when the cows start vanishing bc no food for them….. and not enough grains for people………☠️🪦 Everybody seriously needs to get their Plan C in place and ready. By the time you’re gonna need it, “sooner than expected”, there won’t be any “supplies” left!!!
Fully agree with you there, I'm currently stockpiling canned and dry foodstuffs in what little spare time I have. Even thinking of quitting my job to have enough time and energy to prepare. Industrial meat farming will get hit hard. Beside scarcity of feed, imagine either floods, heatwaves or some virus on top of it.
Imho meat only has to get prohibitively expensive not disappear completely before people are forced to eat grains/legumes directly but this won't last long either. If it does go the way you mention, it will be a perfect storm and millions will starve ... at the very least.
“Before people are forced to eat grains/legumes….” ……..lol THIS vegan lives happily, and healthfully on gourmet food including legumes and vegetables (and limited grains). If only the rest of the world did same, our planet would be in a MUCH better situation. Big Ag sold us a crock of (cow)SHIT….. And the US subsidized it!
French here: the problem isn't even the current rain. Or rain at all. It's the wild mismanagement of soils everywhere.
For decades the ecologists advocated for the return of hedgerows, ponds and other wet areas. They absorb rain, better than any "mega basin" (the latest obsession of our agro-industry).
But furthermore, they keep the soil from washing away. And in an agriculture relying too much on nitrogen (thus wrecking the nitrogen/carbon balanc it happens that the soil just loves to waste away.
Which has been aggravated by the last droughts. Some region's soils have been hardened by the droughts, now they absorb rain with more difficulty.
Now I wouldn't worry too much in the short term, because if wheat suffers then corn will thrive. At least in the Southwest. But it's beginning hard to guess if one must plant corn, wheat, or sorgho these days. And *that* will have consequences.
More people need to understand the service wetlands provide the surrounding area. In MN, been watching this millionaire try to build a home on a swamp for over a year. Can't imagine what his "basement" looks like. Pretty sure the project will never finish
Well I'm not a pedo.
Pedologist, that is (sorry; they always do that joke)
As far as I know, the problem is pretty global since the cause is global too: a vicious circle of nitrogen, depleting the soil (the nitrogen/carbon balance), bringing more nitrogen as a result to keep productivity steady...
Some soils are more resilient than others. It must also depend on the raw quantity of soil at the beginning. Ukraine got outstanding soil. I don't know about Poland (must be a lot of sandy soil near the Baltic? And then the European plain, probably similar soil as the wheat granary in France)
?
The point of a basin is to have a reserve of water, not to absorb water to prevent over humid soil, it's a nonsense. Ponds being better than basin at water retention is absurd, it's a matter of size, the way it works is the same, it's a natural water basin. You could even argue that artificial ones are better on this because soil will always have some loss by infiltration.
The problem ecolo people have is that the basin keeps water from replenishing ground water. Which can be stupid depending where your basin is build, if your water goes straight in deep cavities it's basically lost. It's also going to be less true because of the topic, heavy rain. Heavy rain saturates the soil and doesn't infiltrate as much, causing the problem we have.
Ecolo people tend to be superficially educated on the thing they fight for/against.
PS: Have the balls to come argue with me, I'm always ready to tell people how wrong they are.
PS1: Thanks for confirming that you guys are downbots.
> Of all the commodities that agricultural hedge fund Farrer Capital looks at - *“wheat is the one that is the tightest in terms of supply relative to demand”*
Fun fact - only one region on Earth shares the geology and biodiversity of Ukraine - its Kansas. We are so similar that we even share the same state (national) flower - the sunflower.
Well, if Kansas is so blessed with the ability to grow wheat and corn and soy, why haven't *we* been invaded yet?
Oh that's right. You have to cross an entire ocean first, unless you're Canada or Mexico (and we all know these nukeless nations wouldn't fuckin dare).
Kansas is what Ukraine would be if Russia had no real security concerns. We (Kansas) are privately owned, so much so that 99% of the land is now in private hands. We have destroyed every last vestige of natural prairie. We waged genocide on buffalo, and by extension, the native population.
I'm not familiar with the biodiversity situation in Ukraine but I know win or lose, the outcome will be devastating. If you really think America or Russia gives two shits about the natural world, buddy, check out this bridge - half price!
Kansan here. So interesting to hear the comparison with Ukraine. I honestly don’t know much about the geography around that area, but my ancestors are Germans from Russia, and I was told one of the reasons they settled here in Kansas was because it reminded them so much of home. Perhaps it’s the same general area.
Not really accurate. There's a small region across alberta/Saskatchewan that is also very similar to Ukraine, atleast in soil quality. It's the reason Canada has the largest Ukrainian diaspora outside Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainians were brought in to work the lands here when the west was being settled as they knew how to work land like this before, and native Canadians didn't.
I live in the Netherlands. I just saw a notice in the grocery store that they won't stock spinach due to the rains. Last weekend vegetable fridge was also quite empty.
Likely because of AMOC slowdown, so the opposite I guess? Europe would be a lot colder when AMOC slows down if I understand correctly. A friend of mine in France also mentioned quite a low temperature for June, under 20C. Anecdotal info, so take it with a grain of salt.
Oh, yes. Almost constant rain, here in Britain. The upshot is, it's knackered just about any social plans anyone has - no-one wants to go out to the pub or the films in case they get drenched - so societal ramifications are huge. But it's in a small, insidious way that people won't realise until it's too late.
Of course, food is vitally important, too. There's the old saying about being nine meals away from anarchy - fortunately we aren't at that point just yet, but you do have to wonder how long we've got before that threshold will be breached...
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Arkbolt: --- Once again, climate change is proving to be a food problem. As carbon emissions inexorably continue upwards, major climatic changes are causing substantial changes in the agricultural industry. Expect to see more damage in the agricultural sector and high premiums for future staple production around the world. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dgsqck/climate_graphic_of_the_week_record_rainfall_in_uk/l8s3bbm/
Once again, climate change is proving to be a food problem. As carbon emissions inexorably continue upwards, major climatic changes are causing substantial changes in the agricultural industry. Expect to see more damage in the agricultural sector and high premiums for future staple production around the world.
I know it's kinda the expected perspective from an article on FT but come on... "pushing milling-wheat futures on the Euronext exchange to their highest levels in a year" and "there is a real risk that a poor harvest in France could drive up prices." In a not-too-distant future the real concern will be "there is a real risk that a poor harvest in France could lead to food insecurity in Algeria and Morocco, their main export markets for wheat".
"This heavier rainfall had become around 10 times more likely as a result of climate change, the researchers estimated." Damn. Our disregard for maintaining a livable climate comes back to us in spades.
Last year had twice the amount of rain as the year before, and this year has so far had twice the amount of rain that we had this time last year, with the rainiest summer on record predicted. So yeah, it just keeps getting rainier and rainier. It's because we are surrounded by sea. Sea that is rapidly warming. This leads to MUCH more precipitation and therefore rain for islands or areas near the sea. The gulf stream means that the UK and France get the brunt of it. Areas far from the ocean see major droughts. Areas close to the sea see much more rainfall.
The UK and France will pretty much be totally fucked soon then I imagine.
Do UKand France have staple food reserves for the whole population
Ha ha ha ha. No. Our Tory government couldn’t even have basic PPE supplies in reliable storage in readiness for a predictable pandemic.
No idea, I'm from the US. i did hear though that potato crops are already starting to be effected.
If a crop fails in a US state A , and another state B has reserves of that crop and assume there is collapse all around. Can state B avoid sharing/ or has legal rights to not share it's reserve to another state A? Or the Federal govt takes over in this case
Well, the great majority of the crops in the US are grown in California, for use by the whole country. The majority of the rest is grown in grain growing states, including corn. Plus then you have a scatteirng of crops growing in other states likely to help supplement even further for locally.
If it kees raining like it has been and is being predicted over the next 2 days, Minnesota crops are going to be a problem, too.
I don't doubt it. On the flipside, California's crops wil decline from droughts over time., plus the ehat of course.
No, and the UK only produces 60% of its own food too.
It's slightly more complicated than that. The UK is roughly self sufficient in some areas (most meats, dairy, and notably for this story wheat) whilst particularly fresh fruit and salad vegetables is where the UK imports a lot. That means if there was a hit to fruit & vegetable production the impact would be fairly small as the UK usually imports a lot anyway, but because it's wheat, where the UK usually hovers around self sufficiency, it's going to have a big global impact on supply and prices.
Wow that’s terrifying but makes so much sense, I notice how rainy it is where I am but I hope it means that at least there won’t be wildfires like last summer
im in the uk and its raining right now as we speak lmao. It has been pretty bad for everyday weather with no winter type storms rolling in tbh. Although i would say that december should have been the worst recorded month for the UK rainfall, as in scotland almost every major road was closed, trainlines looked like canals, there was landslides and flooded houses. Once it had passed us it went to ireland and england and wiped them out as well with flooding. I will say that since that event, public transport has never been the same, we are currently always having closures and diversions so it makes it kinda hard to get around it doesn’t feel like summer, nature just feels broken. My bedroom is technically in the attic and in the summer it gets unbearably hot because the sun heats it up but the weather has been so miserable ive had to put my heating on. We have had a few thunderstorms too which is nothing crazy but definitely out the norm for where im located both in time of year and frequency i think this year will be the last “normal” year if we even get to the end of the year without that happening first
You know it’s bad when someone from the UK says they have had too much rain
I’m in Wales and it only usually rains when it’s not foggy or snowing. And it’s not been foggy or snowing much at all…
Tbf here in NI we haven't really had heavy rain, like the rest of the UK, just a constant mizzle.m, but yeah ground is almost always waterlogged.
Also UK here, weather has been fucking WEIRD and those floods a few months ago touched basically everywhere in the country Even with our upcoming change in government, things will still get worse... Just slower
Same about the heating. I've had to put the heating on twice this June because my room was unbearably cold, it felt like November. I've been renaming the UK "wet Alaska" cuz it feels like we're trapped in perpetual soggy winter.
I know for a fact from someone in France right now that it's been constantly raining. Neat, maybe I should invest in a flour mill and a few containers of the stuff. Looking forward to bread and pasta tripling in price /s On the plus side, climate change is helping us cut carbs.
I'm in the UK, and yes, daily rain. And when it rains in the UK, it often rains the whole day.
Unfortunately when there are no carbs/grains available, humans rely on meat. The problem is our industrial mixed agriculture methods, long ago implemented farming grains at scale to feed cows and pigs. Corn and soy mostly, right? So when the cows start vanishing bc no food for them….. and not enough grains for people………☠️🪦 Everybody seriously needs to get their Plan C in place and ready. By the time you’re gonna need it, “sooner than expected”, there won’t be any “supplies” left!!!
The poor will starve while the rest will still eat the animals fattened with plants that would have fed the global population multiple times.
Yep! If only we’d used the millions of acres of farmland to grow human foods instead of cow food😕. If only we’d KNOWN….😭….Oh yeah, we DID. Sorry 🐄🪦☠️
Fully agree with you there, I'm currently stockpiling canned and dry foodstuffs in what little spare time I have. Even thinking of quitting my job to have enough time and energy to prepare. Industrial meat farming will get hit hard. Beside scarcity of feed, imagine either floods, heatwaves or some virus on top of it. Imho meat only has to get prohibitively expensive not disappear completely before people are forced to eat grains/legumes directly but this won't last long either. If it does go the way you mention, it will be a perfect storm and millions will starve ... at the very least.
“Before people are forced to eat grains/legumes….” ……..lol THIS vegan lives happily, and healthfully on gourmet food including legumes and vegetables (and limited grains). If only the rest of the world did same, our planet would be in a MUCH better situation. Big Ag sold us a crock of (cow)SHIT….. And the US subsidized it!
French here: the problem isn't even the current rain. Or rain at all. It's the wild mismanagement of soils everywhere. For decades the ecologists advocated for the return of hedgerows, ponds and other wet areas. They absorb rain, better than any "mega basin" (the latest obsession of our agro-industry). But furthermore, they keep the soil from washing away. And in an agriculture relying too much on nitrogen (thus wrecking the nitrogen/carbon balanc it happens that the soil just loves to waste away. Which has been aggravated by the last droughts. Some region's soils have been hardened by the droughts, now they absorb rain with more difficulty. Now I wouldn't worry too much in the short term, because if wheat suffers then corn will thrive. At least in the Southwest. But it's beginning hard to guess if one must plant corn, wheat, or sorgho these days. And *that* will have consequences.
More people need to understand the service wetlands provide the surrounding area. In MN, been watching this millionaire try to build a home on a swamp for over a year. Can't imagine what his "basement" looks like. Pretty sure the project will never finish
We own a wetland on our property. Makes up a significant portion of it. We get mail every other month from developers.
Would poland and other neighboring countries have the same biodiversity / soil?
Well I'm not a pedo. Pedologist, that is (sorry; they always do that joke) As far as I know, the problem is pretty global since the cause is global too: a vicious circle of nitrogen, depleting the soil (the nitrogen/carbon balance), bringing more nitrogen as a result to keep productivity steady... Some soils are more resilient than others. It must also depend on the raw quantity of soil at the beginning. Ukraine got outstanding soil. I don't know about Poland (must be a lot of sandy soil near the Baltic? And then the European plain, probably similar soil as the wheat granary in France)
[https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/the-major-soil-types-of-europe](https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/the-major-soil-types-of-europe)
Ukraine, Souther Russia and Caucasus seem to have the best soil
? The point of a basin is to have a reserve of water, not to absorb water to prevent over humid soil, it's a nonsense. Ponds being better than basin at water retention is absurd, it's a matter of size, the way it works is the same, it's a natural water basin. You could even argue that artificial ones are better on this because soil will always have some loss by infiltration. The problem ecolo people have is that the basin keeps water from replenishing ground water. Which can be stupid depending where your basin is build, if your water goes straight in deep cavities it's basically lost. It's also going to be less true because of the topic, heavy rain. Heavy rain saturates the soil and doesn't infiltrate as much, causing the problem we have. Ecolo people tend to be superficially educated on the thing they fight for/against. PS: Have the balls to come argue with me, I'm always ready to tell people how wrong they are. PS1: Thanks for confirming that you guys are downbots.
No paywall version. https://archive.ph/AaPy3
doing gods work
> Of all the commodities that agricultural hedge fund Farrer Capital looks at - *“wheat is the one that is the tightest in terms of supply relative to demand”* Fun fact - only one region on Earth shares the geology and biodiversity of Ukraine - its Kansas. We are so similar that we even share the same state (national) flower - the sunflower. Well, if Kansas is so blessed with the ability to grow wheat and corn and soy, why haven't *we* been invaded yet? Oh that's right. You have to cross an entire ocean first, unless you're Canada or Mexico (and we all know these nukeless nations wouldn't fuckin dare). Kansas is what Ukraine would be if Russia had no real security concerns. We (Kansas) are privately owned, so much so that 99% of the land is now in private hands. We have destroyed every last vestige of natural prairie. We waged genocide on buffalo, and by extension, the native population. I'm not familiar with the biodiversity situation in Ukraine but I know win or lose, the outcome will be devastating. If you really think America or Russia gives two shits about the natural world, buddy, check out this bridge - half price!
Kansan here. So interesting to hear the comparison with Ukraine. I honestly don’t know much about the geography around that area, but my ancestors are Germans from Russia, and I was told one of the reasons they settled here in Kansas was because it reminded them so much of home. Perhaps it’s the same general area.
Most German immigrants circa WW2 chose the midwest because it was shockingly similar to Germany. It doesn't hurt that the land is very easy to work.
Not really accurate. There's a small region across alberta/Saskatchewan that is also very similar to Ukraine, atleast in soil quality. It's the reason Canada has the largest Ukrainian diaspora outside Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainians were brought in to work the lands here when the west was being settled as they knew how to work land like this before, and native Canadians didn't.
I live in the Netherlands. I just saw a notice in the grocery store that they won't stock spinach due to the rains. Last weekend vegetable fridge was also quite empty.
Yep. Spinach is one thing, but the fun really starts when potatoes and wheat harvests fail.
Is this a result of the Atlantic being significantly hotter?
Likely because of AMOC slowdown, so the opposite I guess? Europe would be a lot colder when AMOC slows down if I understand correctly. A friend of mine in France also mentioned quite a low temperature for June, under 20C. Anecdotal info, so take it with a grain of salt.
Yeah, May and June has been unseasonably cold in the UK
A week ago in France we had night as cold as 2°C in fricking june !
It's like we skipped spring and summer and went straight for autumn... I really need some sun now, its depressing.
Oh, yes. Almost constant rain, here in Britain. The upshot is, it's knackered just about any social plans anyone has - no-one wants to go out to the pub or the films in case they get drenched - so societal ramifications are huge. But it's in a small, insidious way that people won't realise until it's too late. Of course, food is vitally important, too. There's the old saying about being nine meals away from anarchy - fortunately we aren't at that point just yet, but you do have to wonder how long we've got before that threshold will be breached...