I had a buddy who often used the phrase, "What were the odds of THAT happening?" After I picked up on his trend, I would annoy him by saying, "Well, it happened, so apparently 100%." "Dammit that's not how statistics works!" He was right, of course, but I always led him to believe that I thought I was right.
at first i thought wouldnt you always want to pick 1? your practically garunteed money.
but then i realized why you pick higher numbers. the higher the number the more payout.
personally, i would probably pick something with less risk like 20 instead of the theoretically best possible being 50
this really is the answer.. TBH 50k wouldn't change my life but 25k could really put me ahead and the odds are much better.
That being said I picked 50 and got 58..
For those curious imagine you chose between
-80 % chance to win 1,000،000$ or
-50 % chance to win 2,000,000$
While the expected value is greater is second case people tend to chose first option because in general you do not consider 2,000,000$ to be twice as good (in terms of hapiness or whatever matters to you) as 1,000،000$
Not too sure about that, if you're £100k off a house deposit you're probably aiming for a property too large, bringing home an extra 20-40k likely pays for a wedding/house deposit, I would probably go for 35k and be ecstatic if it comes through.
50 is highest EV lower reduces variance
so the optimum is between 1 and 50 depending on how much money you already have / how much less benefit you get proportionality from the next 1k vs all the ones before it.
I went for 30 £21k EV so 16% lower than max EV but 40% lower chance of getting nothing then got 42 on the random number generator.
This is true. An 80% chance of $20k would be a very strong choice for most Americans. Even 90% for $10k could be life changing for millions of Americans. It could mean clearing a debt or being able to buy a car that would allow them to work.
If you have a home and a car and savings, it isn’t as impactful, but so many people have basically nothing, in terms of assets, that the utility of smaller amounts with high confidence is much higher than the effective value of probability * dollar amount. A 90% chance at $10k has a higher effective value than a 10% chance at $90k.
You're conflating EV of life outcomes with EV of this random chance game. If you're homeless and broke and you'll starve to death unless you get some money from this game, does that change things? The EV of the game random variable doesn't change. But your life outcome certainly does.
Agreed, unless some smaller value would have a greater utility, than just having more.
If $15k is what you need for a black market liver/saving grandmas house then just do that.
50 becomes much more obvious if the deal was, you get to pick 1 number but there’s 100 random numbers chosen and you get paid each time you win . Your EV with 50 is $2.5m and picking 1 you’d expect $99k
Solving this mathematically, the formula for how much money you can expect to get is ((100-x)/100)*x, where x is the chosen number. To find out the maximum expected money, you have to differentiate this, so you rearrange the formula to (100x-x^2)/100, then to x-(x^2/100) to make it easier to differentiate. Differentiating gets you 1-(2x/100), or 1-x/50. The value will be highest when this =0, or x=50. Subbing this back in to the first equation, the expected amount of money is $25000 on average.
Too dumb to math here. Monte Carlo code agrees with you, 50 is max expected value according to MATLAB
N=100000000
M=100
tic
a=randi(M,N,1);
b=randi(M,N,1);
c=(b>a).\*a;
d=\[\];
for i=1:M
d(i,1)=sum(c(find(a==i)))/sum(a==i);
end
toc
find(max(d)==d)
plot(d)
plot is a nice clean parabola, which matches your maths. nice!
I'm working on the assumption that ties mean I get the money.
* If I pick 1, I'm guaranteed something, at least 1000.
* If I pick 26, I have a 25% chance I will get nothing, but 75% chance of getting something nice.
* If I pick 51, I have a 50-50 chance of getting nothing or getting something really nice.
Hmmm....
All things considered, I'd pick 26 and be okay if I get nothing.
I think that's the key part of this solution: what percentage would you be okay getting nothing?
Right now we don’t know what a tie means. So the guy you replied to has a 50/50 chance of being correct, and they also put a disclaimer that ties being a win were based on assumption.
I’m curious towards why you don’t have to assume a tie is loss, but can instead accept it as fact, even though it also doesn’t say “less than or equal to” for the loss conditions, and that the guy you replied to must be wrong, somehow? Genuine question, no accusation, I’m assuming I’m missing something
Sounds like a job for The Table Killer. (My solid metal D100)
I would choose between 10 and 20 depending on how bold I felt. Tonight I'm feeling particularly bold so we'll go with 20.
36.
I’d say 10. This question depends highly on your current financial situation and how much you can afford to risk losing. If I rolled a 5 after betting on 10, I could accept that it’s just bad luck. If I rolled a 15 after betting on 20, I’d be filled with regret.
Well, expected value is highest in the middle at 50 with both ends being worst.
1000 * .99 = 990
100,000 * .01 = 1000
50,000 * .5 = 25,000
So yeah I'll take the coin flip on the 50k.
Now *this*, this is a great hypothetical question. Good job OP. The payout isn't too ridiculously high, it doesn't have an obvious answer for most people. In fact, I'd be interested to see a distribution curve after a couple thousand people give their answers, or at least a couple hundred. It would be interesting. Maybe somewhere around...25 would be where the curve is highest.
So in my own case, I would ere on the side of caution, but also less cautious than if I just said "1," and say 15.
100. The prompt doesn’t say that the number generator is limited to a number 1-100, and it is implied that 100 can be a winner, so there’s at least 101 numbers for the generator to choose from. Logically, if 101 is a possible number, all three-digit numbers are fair game from a computer, so there’s likely at least a roughly 90% chance that the generator spits out a number greater than 100, and I’ll walk away with six figures.
Depends on how lucky I feel that day, but 49 would be my highest number, as a gamble of 51-49 is always in my favor. On an unlucky feeling day like 25. I rolled a 95.
I wouldn't blame someone for going super low. I think I'd probably go at least 20 if not 30. still really quite likely to succeed, but a lot more benefit.
If it's just me, I choose 20.
The increased chance of success is worth the decreased payout for me. . . But that said I would probably break down and say 50 in the spur of the moment, as that's the best odds I'll ever get to make that kind of money in one go. If you're given a 50% chance to make 50 grand, you should take it right?
Edit: Random Number Generator give me 67, and I chose 20. Hooray!
32. I added up total of a few big ticket purchase I want but feel selfish making.
RNG = 65
Nice…dang now I’m thinking about all the other stuff I could have had. I’m more upset about losing out on 33k than I am happy about getting 32k. :(
35- I want to retain strong odds, but it's also a free spin of the wheel, so might as well swing for something that'll make a big difference for me.
Edit: rolled a 60, solid call
100. It was never stated the range that the random number generator was pulling from and there are way more than 100 numbers in existence so I would say my odds are pretty good.
The mathematically correct answer as far as maximizing expected Value is 50, but you could argue going much lower to be optimal if you need a few $x,000
The real answer is you figure out what language it's written in, set the seed to be something where you know the first number will be 100, then choose 99.
I like 25 for this. That’s a substantial sum, and I have a 75% chance of winning it.
50 is tempting but that’s losing a coin toss and getting nothing. Where to lose 25, you’d have to lose two consecutive coin tosses - not impossible by any means, but much less likely.
Oof, this is a tough one. Hell, I could pay off my credit cards with just 5K or so. But then I start thinking, what could I do with just 10K, or 20K! Surely saying 49 wouldn't hurt, right? Surely the odds are still in my favor!?
I'm reminded of Let's Make a Deal, where almost every single contestant becomes consumed by greed and makes unwise choices, when they could have made a safe choice and walked away with free money.
Picked 43. Rolled 96. Hyped.
At first I was going at this pretty mathematically. And of course winning quite a bit of money would be pretty cool. But the higher you go, the worse your chances, obviously. So in the end I picked a number that felt good. And ended up with 43.
Does the number generator also have a limit of 1-100? Bc id just pick 100 since it is the largest number and the generator would be limited to, at best, picking the same number but couldn't possibly pick a larger number.
Edit: I misread. I'd have lost it all 😭
I'd just say fuck it and pick 95.... If I lose, I don't lose anything, but if I win, I get 95k... I didn't walk in with that money, so it's no big deal if I don't walk out with it.
~gamblers logic~
Wait, so the random number generator can't be limited to the between 1 and 100, so is it 0 to infinity? Are we and the number generator limited to integers? So many questions about the rules....
This post is very triggering for XCOM players
95% to hit is a miss 95% of the time but 80 % to hit is a hit 50% of the time unless it’s your favorite guy getting shot
IT'S JUST NOT MATHEMATICALLY POSSIBLE! ^It ^is! SHIT THE FUCK UP!
Will you roll under a 5 more times if you roll 500 times, or 5? You miss more 90%+ shots because that's *all you take*.
I had a buddy who often used the phrase, "What were the odds of THAT happening?" After I picked up on his trend, I would annoy him by saying, "Well, it happened, so apparently 100%." "Dammit that's not how statistics works!" He was right, of course, but I always led him to believe that I thought I was right.
>"Well, it happened, so apparently 100%." These are actually fighting words in the XCOM community.
XCOM is the source of my (very harmful) risk aversion, and also the source of my (somewhat useful) habit in ensuring redundancy when there is risk.
Looooool
75. That's like winning two coin flips. I just rolled a 43. Shit.
Just got 78 😎
Oh noooooo!!! Do you want to split your imaginary dollars with me?
1, duh. Practically guranteed $1000 win. Bird in the hand....
I bid $1 Drew!
For a second I completely forgot that Bob wasn't the host anymore... it's been almost 2 decades, at this point.
I'll take retired great ones for $200 Alex
at first i thought wouldnt you always want to pick 1? your practically garunteed money. but then i realized why you pick higher numbers. the higher the number the more payout. personally, i would probably pick something with less risk like 20 instead of the theoretically best possible being 50
With 2 you have a 99% chance of winning but get double the prize.
with 3 you have a 98% chance and thrice the prize
with 4 you have a 97% chance and quadruple the prize
Hmmm. I bet it stops there. Probably best to go with 4 then.
Exactly as the op states if numbers is LESS and only goes 1-100 youve got an easy win
25, high enough that it will solve 90% of my problems, and is low enough there are a lot of numbers after it
this really is the answer.. TBH 50k wouldn't change my life but 25k could really put me ahead and the odds are much better. That being said I picked 50 and got 58..
I feel like I would never forgive myself if the computer rolled a 24 though.
Isn't 50 going to be the highest EV choice? .50*50000=25000 No other choice has a higher EV outcome than that.
Sure but you assume that utility of money is linear which is not true at all in general
For those curious imagine you chose between -80 % chance to win 1,000،000$ or -50 % chance to win 2,000,000$ While the expected value is greater is second case people tend to chose first option because in general you do not consider 2,000,000$ to be twice as good (in terms of hapiness or whatever matters to you) as 1,000،000$
Use commas. I'm not counting your zeros.
I think at these scales it's pretty close to linear
Not too sure about that, if you're £100k off a house deposit you're probably aiming for a property too large, bringing home an extra 20-40k likely pays for a wedding/house deposit, I would probably go for 35k and be ecstatic if it comes through.
My thoughts exactly when I chose 30. It's a big part of a new home for us, and more likely than not to come through. Rolled a 36.
50 is highest EV lower reduces variance so the optimum is between 1 and 50 depending on how much money you already have / how much less benefit you get proportionality from the next 1k vs all the ones before it. I went for 30 £21k EV so 16% lower than max EV but 40% lower chance of getting nothing then got 42 on the random number generator.
EV applies in the long run. You have one chance. Do you need the $1000 right now? How about $2000?
This is true. An 80% chance of $20k would be a very strong choice for most Americans. Even 90% for $10k could be life changing for millions of Americans. It could mean clearing a debt or being able to buy a car that would allow them to work. If you have a home and a car and savings, it isn’t as impactful, but so many people have basically nothing, in terms of assets, that the utility of smaller amounts with high confidence is much higher than the effective value of probability * dollar amount. A 90% chance at $10k has a higher effective value than a 10% chance at $90k.
Well if I make the best EV decisions about this and all the other stuff in my life I'll be better off, even if each decision was unique
You're conflating EV of life outcomes with EV of this random chance game. If you're homeless and broke and you'll starve to death unless you get some money from this game, does that change things? The EV of the game random variable doesn't change. But your life outcome certainly does.
Agreed, unless some smaller value would have a greater utility, than just having more. If $15k is what you need for a black market liver/saving grandmas house then just do that. 50 becomes much more obvious if the deal was, you get to pick 1 number but there’s 100 random numbers chosen and you get paid each time you win . Your EV with 50 is $2.5m and picking 1 you’d expect $99k
15. RNG = 39. CHA-CHING!
50 Rng 51 Barely but still there
Solving this mathematically, the formula for how much money you can expect to get is ((100-x)/100)*x, where x is the chosen number. To find out the maximum expected money, you have to differentiate this, so you rearrange the formula to (100x-x^2)/100, then to x-(x^2/100) to make it easier to differentiate. Differentiating gets you 1-(2x/100), or 1-x/50. The value will be highest when this =0, or x=50. Subbing this back in to the first equation, the expected amount of money is $25000 on average.
You’ve got some latex issues, bud. But thanks for doing the math.
Too dumb to math here. Monte Carlo code agrees with you, 50 is max expected value according to MATLAB N=100000000 M=100 tic a=randi(M,N,1); b=randi(M,N,1); c=(b>a).\*a; d=\[\]; for i=1:M d(i,1)=sum(c(find(a==i)))/sum(a==i); end toc find(max(d)==d) plot(d) plot is a nice clean parabola, which matches your maths. nice!
99. Go big or go home.
Choosing 20 because 20k pays off all my debts And I rolled a 24! Phew pays not to be greedy 20k for me!!!
87
50. RNG 98 lol.
I'm working on the assumption that ties mean I get the money. * If I pick 1, I'm guaranteed something, at least 1000. * If I pick 26, I have a 25% chance I will get nothing, but 75% chance of getting something nice. * If I pick 51, I have a 50-50 chance of getting nothing or getting something really nice. Hmmm.... All things considered, I'd pick 26 and be okay if I get nothing. I think that's the key part of this solution: what percentage would you be okay getting nothing?
You're 1% off on all your chances. It states "greater than" not "equal to or greater than", so if you pick 1 you still get nothing if they roll a 1.
Right now we don’t know what a tie means. So the guy you replied to has a 50/50 chance of being correct, and they also put a disclaimer that ties being a win were based on assumption. I’m curious towards why you don’t have to assume a tie is loss, but can instead accept it as fact, even though it also doesn’t say “less than or equal to” for the loss conditions, and that the guy you replied to must be wrong, somehow? Genuine question, no accusation, I’m assuming I’m missing something
Your assumption is wrong, it's clearly stated in the post. If the RNG rolls **greater** than your number. You do not win ties. > != >=
So, guess .99999999 to get that skrilla
I go with 27. It's a good number.
Table Killer says 21. So sad.
I went with 21 and RNG said 9. F.
Picked 40 got 86 good enough.
I got 86 too but I picked 30. You win :P. Well, you win more anyway.
20-25
Table Killer says 63. You win! (Nothing because I have no money)
20
Table Killer says 4. Wow, it does not like you.
I chose a low number that would solve a lot of problems for me. 12, figured that was pretty safe so I asked my phone to give me a RNG it gave me 9 fml
$35k Number: 59 I wish I did 50, but oh well. Picked $35k so that I could get a new car, phone, and computer. So my goal was still accomplished
Sounds like a job for The Table Killer. (My solid metal D100) I would choose between 10 and 20 depending on how bold I felt. Tonight I'm feeling particularly bold so we'll go with 20. 36.
I’d say 10. This question depends highly on your current financial situation and how much you can afford to risk losing. If I rolled a 5 after betting on 10, I could accept that it’s just bad luck. If I rolled a 15 after betting on 20, I’d be filled with regret.
Table Killer says 16. Pays to play it safe. Pays in FakeBucks because what is money?
10k
Well, expected value is highest in the middle at 50 with both ends being worst. 1000 * .99 = 990 100,000 * .01 = 1000 50,000 * .5 = 25,000 So yeah I'll take the coin flip on the 50k.
Now *this*, this is a great hypothetical question. Good job OP. The payout isn't too ridiculously high, it doesn't have an obvious answer for most people. In fact, I'd be interested to see a distribution curve after a couple thousand people give their answers, or at least a couple hundred. It would be interesting. Maybe somewhere around...25 would be where the curve is highest. So in my own case, I would ere on the side of caution, but also less cautious than if I just said "1," and say 15.
Table Killer has deemed you worthy of hypothetical money and rolled a 50.
33, that is the average percentage of correct answers on a multiple question test if you randomly picked the answers.
100. The prompt doesn’t say that the number generator is limited to a number 1-100, and it is implied that 100 can be a winner, so there’s at least 101 numbers for the generator to choose from. Logically, if 101 is a possible number, all three-digit numbers are fair game from a computer, so there’s likely at least a roughly 90% chance that the generator spits out a number greater than 100, and I’ll walk away with six figures.
its a bet, if i pick 10, i got a 10% chance of losing. I’m going 10
69 And now using a RNG I got 36. F***
Shit... I'd be really happy right now with 5.
π^(π)
39. It's a little below max EV but I'm hoping for a very good return with a pretty strong probability.
33. $33k would just about clear all my debts. And rng says... 85! Nice. When can I expect my cheque...?
20 RNG results: 84 Cool
Depends on how lucky I feel that day, but 49 would be my highest number, as a gamble of 51-49 is always in my favor. On an unlucky feeling day like 25. I rolled a 95.
I wouldn't blame someone for going super low. I think I'd probably go at least 20 if not 30. still really quite likely to succeed, but a lot more benefit.
I probably pick 20ish. Yeah 50 is the mathematically correct pick, but the value of money isn't linear and 20 is a house deposit.
I chose 70, got 64 🥺
55x2 gamblers in shambles.
I chose 50, got 66. Imma cash out now.
75.. rng was 11 I've always been lucky lol
99 full send.
35. Decent odds of payout, not too small. And I rolled a 69; very nice!
lol I said 25 to myself because I thought the odds would be decent and the payout good too. Got 24
60.
Rolled a 3 😎 (Chose 34)
I said 55, generator gave me 56.
I chose 24, rolled a 37. Decent
45 felt safe. Rolled a 43...
42 And I just rolled a 51. Cool.
I went with 40 and rolled 78. Ka-ching!
75 Ring 76
32
20! Just used a random number generator and got 39 so I’d be safe
26 Rng = 28 Phew
I'd slap the button out of his hand and say, "You're a billionaire, Sundar." Then leave.
What happens if the random number is your number?
2. I like to live dangerously...
If it's just me, I choose 20. The increased chance of success is worth the decreased payout for me. . . But that said I would probably break down and say 50 in the spur of the moment, as that's the best odds I'll ever get to make that kind of money in one go. If you're given a 50% chance to make 50 grand, you should take it right? Edit: Random Number Generator give me 67, and I chose 20. Hooray!
32. I added up total of a few big ticket purchase I want but feel selfish making. RNG = 65 Nice…dang now I’m thinking about all the other stuff I could have had. I’m more upset about losing out on 33k than I am happy about getting 32k. :(
Picked 25 got 97
40. RNG: 7 CRAP
And if it lands exactly on that number?
50 lets go literally rolled a 51.. what the heck
20
I’ll pick 100. I like to live dangerously.
35- I want to retain strong odds, but it's also a free spin of the wheel, so might as well swing for something that'll make a big difference for me. Edit: rolled a 60, solid call
34 Rolled a 19 : /
19 19k does a lot of work and is statistically on the high end of occuring
20 gives 80% chance to win 20,000 which is life changing money. I'm comfortable with that level of risk.
100. It was never stated the range that the random number generator was pulling from and there are way more than 100 numbers in existence so I would say my odds are pretty good.
19
Ten. I have a ninety percent chance of winning $10,000. That's more than enough of a windfall for me
[Guess it doesn't matter.](https://i.imgur.com/YbqvsJt.png)
I'd go with 50, it's a 50 chance I get $50k. I'd take that.
I think I'd go with 40. So having a more than 50/50 chance to win a solid sum.
The answer is 42.
45 89! Dang it! I was too conservative! Thought about picking 60! Left $15k on the table!
i chose 60 the RNG on my computer chose 19 :/ edit: the next 5 numbers were all under 50.. fuck
The mathematically correct answer as far as maximizing expected Value is 50, but you could argue going much lower to be optimal if you need a few $x,000
62
2. I either get 1,000 or above, or I get nothing, but loss nothing.
49.99999 is the best option
Do I get to seed the number generator? Cuz if I do, 1 less than what it picks. lol.
25
10... and I just rolled a dice and got a 60, so would get 5k
I'm going with 20. It gives a good chance of winning it, and it's enough to be significant.
Op answer: I did this with my mom, I chose 50 she chose 17. I rolled a 73, she rolled a 21.
30 If I win I can finally afford a car!
Is the RNG also restricted to 1-100?
Go for a sum that's noticeable but reasonably high chance, For me that would be 10. 10k would help alot for a long time
I chose 35, random number generator also chose 35. Which I guess is not larger. Fuck.
The real answer is you figure out what language it's written in, set the seed to be something where you know the first number will be 100, then choose 99.
There's really not a wrong answer here, the expected value is the same for any choice right?
45
74
2. No need to be greedy.
50 has the highest expected value and is mathematically the correct choice.
Picked 66, rolled 38. Fuck
Rolled a fucking 5 lmao
I like 25 for this. That’s a substantial sum, and I have a 75% chance of winning it. 50 is tempting but that’s losing a coin toss and getting nothing. Where to lose 25, you’d have to lose two consecutive coin tosses - not impossible by any means, but much less likely.
I went with 75 found an rng online and it came up with 85...I win
10. 10,000 Would be life-changing money for me at the moment. So I'll take the 90% odds.
I draw my pistol and empty the magazine into that guys face. He's a billionaire right?
Honestly I’d pick 10 and not greater than 20
I picked 25 and generated 59. I left money on the table, but I’d be stoked about 25k extra.
lol, my RNG chose 99 but I chose 22.
Picked 30 Rolled 37 I feel I did pretty good
What are the parameters of the random number generator, if it is picking between 0-100000 then I’ll pick 100.
40
50, give me the coin toss
Oof, this is a tough one. Hell, I could pay off my credit cards with just 5K or so. But then I start thinking, what could I do with just 10K, or 20K! Surely saying 49 wouldn't hurt, right? Surely the odds are still in my favor!? I'm reminded of Let's Make a Deal, where almost every single contestant becomes consumed by greed and makes unwise choices, when they could have made a safe choice and walked away with free money.
45. Let’s see Edit: got an 80
60k Rolled a 74. Big money!
10 RNG 36 Nice.
Picked 43. Rolled 96. Hyped. At first I was going at this pretty mathematically. And of course winning quite a bit of money would be pretty cool. But the higher you go, the worse your chances, obviously. So in the end I picked a number that felt good. And ended up with 43.
I would have gone 25. Enough to be significant while maintaining a good probability. Hit 13, so I lost out.
35, good odds but still a lot of money (to me) Whooo I got an 86. I’ll take my $35k in one dollar bills please.
Does the number generator also have a limit of 1-100? Bc id just pick 100 since it is the largest number and the generator would be limited to, at best, picking the same number but couldn't possibly pick a larger number. Edit: I misread. I'd have lost it all 😭
44 cuz fours have always been lucky for me
37
40, RNG was 43, I’m good
I got 5 :(
Is this RNG like the one used when I was trying to craft critical in LoTRO? Lol
I picked 20: decent amount of money, 80% chance of success. Not bad, right? RNG = 5 😕
For a reason I can’t explain, I went with 35. My first pull on a random number generator resulted in a 64.
Well I picked 60, and rolled a 61, so I just barely won.
I need roughly 60k to get myself on the absolute straight and narrow from where I am. So lets dance! \*Rolls actual RNG\* 53.....well shit.
25. In the best case scenario, I walk away with all my debts paid up with a little fun money.
I was bold and picked 70. RNG said 94. 70k, nice.
30 **Result**: 1d100 (36) **Total**: 36
I chose 72 and I rolled a 75
Whats the upper limit of the random number generator? Bc unless its capped at 1000 or something, chances are you can pick 100 and win
Probability wise, 50 and 51 have equal chance of returning the most money so I would just choose either one of those two
27. I got a 20...I hate this game lol
I'd just say fuck it and pick 95.... If I lose, I don't lose anything, but if I win, I get 95k... I didn't walk in with that money, so it's no big deal if I don't walk out with it. ~gamblers logic~
My number was 20. I had to hit the generator 6 times to get something lower, so I like those odds
17.5 RNG says 70.
20,000
69
Wait, so the random number generator can't be limited to the between 1 and 100, so is it 0 to infinity? Are we and the number generator limited to integers? So many questions about the rules....
I picked 24,since I've never seen it on a random number generator, and for 82
20, it clears my debts except mortgage, and it's a 4/5 chance to work
lol literally got 99. I went with 63
Went for 49 and got an 86. Thankfully I don’t believe in potential profit as lost assets so I’m incredibly happy with 49 thousand free dollars
100. There is nothing in the post that says the random number generated is limited in any fashion. There are a lot more numbers over 100 than under.
I think picking the optimal EV response gives me the highest probability of getting a job offer from the CEO of google
I choose pi, just to see how the hypothetical apple ceo handles an infinite expression.
Picked 13 , got 87
I pick 49, so I have a better than 50% chance to win.
33. I'm happy with 1 in 3 three odds.