There's always that odd contingent that says, "Well, Babe Ruth wasn't unanimous, so no one should be!," but those people are deeply unserious and should be ignored. Ichiro's the lockiest lock for a unanimous vote, and anyone who says otherwise should absolutely have their voting privileges revoked.
Voters will sometimes leave obvious choices for induction off their ballots so they can vote for lesser players who might be at risk of being removed from the ballot due to receiving less than 5% of the vote.
A maximum of ten players can be selected by each voter. If a voter thinks 11 players are worthy, for example, they might leave off a surefire Hall Of Famer in an attempt to keep another player on the ballot.
At least one will leave ichiro off because he spent so much of his career in Japan even though his mlb career alone is hall of fame worthy. They'll make arguments that don't matter/make no sense to justify it ("he's not the hits leader if we only look at mlb", but they'll use 3 paragraphs to say it so it's not obvious).
He’ll be a first ballot without a doubt, but I’d bet that some jackass (or likely a few) out there votes no to be different or something. Same thing they did with Griffey, Jeter, Chipper Jones, etc.
Well get ready for it bc there is always one writer that thinks nobody should be 100%.
Baseball has the worst gate keepers to the HOF. Certain criteria that keep some guys out while other pass having fallen short of the same criteria.
The other sports get it right. They out in players that impacted the game and were the best of their era. You never hear “oh well he was only the best player for 6 years after that he was slightly above average”
Ichiro didn’t get on base enough for a lead off hitter to be unanimous among stat heads. Tim Raines had an OBP of .385, Rickey Henderson had a career OBP of .401. Ichiro had an OBP of .355 because he didn’t take as many walks as those other guys. Ichiro is still HOF worthy as one of the best slap hitters, but I don’t think his stats support a unanimous vote.
I'll accept this case. He may even be a Hofer, I dunno, but for pointing out how he's far from the greatest ever statically as a hitter, I get down voted like crazy. Stats don't tow the party line... Is it them or my pointing them out that angers so many?
It's probably because you think stats tow any line instead of them actually toeing the line. But I digress...
The stats you offered up seems like you're offering situational metrics to throw shade at his obvious abilities. I grow weary of the overhyped, multi-lettered acronyms that are so watered down as compared to definitive categories such as HITS, STOLEN BASES, & RUNS. All that silly jargon is as clear as in 630+ at bats a season, Ichiro got a hit 200+ times for 10 seasons in a row.
Stop overanalyzing it & simply appreciate the basic numbers that none of his contemporaries could match.
I don't think stats toe a line, my point is people find these stats that don't seem to toe that line inconvenient.
That said, however, analysis for induction, especially when the eye test can be so affected by results as to have people clamouring for unanimity for an overhyped player are valuable.
I realize he brings base running value and fielding value (at a lowered value position), but though above average in obp (if not as much as you expected by his avg), the fact is that runs are more likely scored by teams that fail to make outs (read: obp) and that this is the single most important metric for offensive baseball (and its converse defensively) matters.
Failure to grasp that and love Ichiro due to what he did well is fine, but doesn't make him a top 100 hitter of all time, and deeper analysis is a crucial part of Hall support.
He’s a HOFer, but also the most overrated baseball player ever.
Way too many people think he’s like top 20 or top 10 all time. It’s absolutely insane and I don’t get why people have so much trouble rating him properly
What an ignorant statement. 10 straight years of 200 hits, 10 straight years .300+ avg., 10 years with 30+ SB, an MVP. He is 25th all time in hits despite not seeing a pitch in the MLB game until he was 27. But some worthless stat says he was average because it factors in his home stadium?!? I’m sorry but I don’t think we should let equations determine HOFers instead of watching them play
Yes -- which is in part a function of being good at hitting singles, in part a function of getting a lot of plate appearances that season, and in part a function of almost never walking.
He never even led his league in on-base percentage. Hits are one way to get on base... when you factor in all the ways to get on base, he had one really good (but not spectacular) season, several above-average seasons, and that's it.
His ops+ says he is “slightly above average” but yet he is 25th all time in hits that doesn’t seem like a reliable “stat” to me. Only 24 other players in the history of the game hit the ball more times than him. The equation fails here.
70th overall in times on base. Only 69 other players got on base more times than him. Hits are a cherry-picked subset of that.
(And 49th in plate appearances. Only 48 players had more *chances* to get on base than he did.)
Anyway, I'm not even saying 70th is bad... but guys who got on base more than Ichiro include such illustrious figures as Rusty Staub, both Dwight and Darrell Evans, Bobby Abreu, Luis Gonzalez, Omar Vizquel, and Johnny Damon. A couple of those guys have decent Hall of Fame cases, most of them don't. None of them are in the Hall of Fame.
Getting on base a bunch *by itself*, especially when it's a function of longevity, doesn't make you a Hall of Famer. (Jamie Moyer was 40th all-time in recording outs. Dennis Martinez was 41st. Does that make them Hall of Famers? Harold Baines got on base 150 more times than Ichiro. Does that make his induction any less absurd?)
Not at all. I’m only 40, I just haven’t seen the future yet. This is a stat that makes no sense. By your logic here I am to believe that Danny Tartabull(133) is a better than Tony Gwynn(132). If I had no idea who these two guys were this “stat” would lead me to believe this. That’s my point. I don’t want someone in 20 years thinking that John Kruk(134) was better at hitting than Johnny Bench(120).
You're cherry picking data. Obviously, no one stat is perfect, but OPS gives a more comprehensive look into a batter's performance. You're also saying "stat", like I made up OPS, which is a common metric that's been around for a very long time.
Your switching it to OPS I said OPS+ which was the only stat you mentioned in the comment I replied to. OPS is much more reliable than OPS+ which is clearly not a good measure of who a better hitter is when looked at by itself which is what you did when I replied. You cherry picked a stat to make Ichiro look bad then you changed to a different stat mid argument so you could feel like you were right.
Who said anything about a home stadium? It factors in his .355 career OBP and .402 career slugging, both of which are nothing special. (And of course those numbers are affected by him hanging around way past his prime, but even if you cut off his tenures with the Yankees and Marlins, he ends up with a slash line of .321/.365/.416. There's a *lot* of empty average here, but that doesn't make it less empty.)
As I said below, I think he's a Hall of Famer -- but he wasn't actually especially good at getting on base, his power was nonexistent, and he only had two legitimately great seasons (2004 and 2001.) He ekes his way in on defensive/baserunning value and vibes.
As a very, very, very small factor, sure. Because he played in Seattle, his OPS+ would have been slightly... increased. His home field was a pitchers' park. OPS+ actually *helps* him a little.
The much bigger factor here is that a .757 career OPS isn't anything special, no matter what stadium you do it in. And even if you remove slugging from the equation, a .355 career OBP also isn't anything special. Ben Zobrist's career OBP was .358. Dave Hollins, Edgardo Alfonzo, and JT Snow were at .357. Michael Brantley and Orlando Merced were both at .355.
Now, obviously, Ichiro was a better player than any of those guys -- in part because of longevity, in part because of defensive/baserunning value. And .355 beats league average, which generally hovers around .330. You don't need to tell me those things.
But I think people treat Ichiro as a great leadoff hitter when the results just don't support that notion. As good as he was at getting on base via singles, he was equally bad at drawing walks. As a result, he was 2nd in the American League in OBP in 2004, 9th in 2007, 10th in 2002... and that's it. Just not elite numbers.
The stats you mentioned don’t support that, but Ichiro Suzuki had more hits batting lead off than everyone to ever play besides Rickey Henderson. That’s better than average
You're doing a parody here, right?
You could at least *argue* that hitting singles was a valuable skill of its own, rather than a subset of getting on base.
"While batting leadoff," though, is on par with "on odd-numbered Tuesdays." It's a clear function of usage, and simply means that the teams he played on had him batting leadoff more than any other player. (With the possible exception of Rickey, who was obviously in a whole other galaxy.)
If all you do is hit slap singles, and you have that many plate appearances, you’re going to accumulate a bunch of slap singles. Big whoop. .355 career on-base percentage is unimpressive. I’ve said 15 times that I think he just about scrapes into the Hall of Fame, but he’s not like an inner-circle guy.
Rate stats are so unfair to Ichiro because: (A) he missed like 5 years of all-star caliber play while in Japan, and (B) he played until his mid-40s.
The *majority* of his MLB career came after the age of 35. Do you realize how insane that is?
Through his age 35 season his OBP was like .378, which is better than the career OBPs of Ken Griffey Jr and Albert Pujols, and within a couple percentage points of Derek Jeter’s and Alex Rodriguez’s. Stop this nonsense talking point about Ichiro not getting on base. You’re talking about literally-in-his-40s Ichiro, not prime Ichiro
I've mentioned it several times elsewhere. Keep up. You're making excuses for post-peak seasons, you're cherry-picking his peak, and it's still nothing special. Because his on-base ability was never, not once, not a day in his life, special.
And yes, if you cherry-pick his top 8 seasons, he had a .378 OBP. The same, as you point out, as the full career numbers for a bunch of Hall of Famers who did stuff other than hitting slap singles. Not as good as Tim Raines's entire career -- and I think Raines is a clear Hall of Famer, but he as also better than Ichiro in every other way imaginable.
Also: not as good as Dave Magadan's entire career. Not as good as Rusty Greer, Tim Salmon, JD Drew. Not as good as Brian Giles, Nick Johnson, John Olerud, John Kruk, Mike Hargrove, Bobby Abreu. Not as good as Mark Grace, Mo Vaughn, Kevin Youkilis, Merv Rettenmund, or Alvin Davis.
And that's Ichiro's *peak*, as compared to those guys' entire careers.
.378. That's the number you've massaged and cut out and shoved in to get. Oh, a .378 peak OBP, that's *real* special. If he had only played those 9 seasons, that OBP would have been -- gasp! -- 197th all-time.
The eye test lies. Remember the people giving all those Gold Gloves to Derek Jeter? Remember the years when batting average was worshipped without context and the ability to take a walk was ignored? Remember when bullshit stats like RBI, wins, and saves were taken seriously?
Thankfully , we’ve been beyond that point for a while now. We have the ability to look through 100+ years of baseball, determine what plays actually contribute to teams winning baseball games, and reward the players who consistently make those plays. This isn’t some new idea, and it’s pretty obvious: if you want to know how good a player was, you can look at the record of what he actually did.
It’s almost like he spent 6 years of his prime in another league and also played until he was in his mid-40s. Of course his career rate stats aren’t to be as good.
Literally half of his MLB career came after the age of 35
Incorporating slugging % with regards to one of the most pure contact hitters, if not the most in recent memory, isn’t a smart move. The job of a contact hitter is to get on base, not necessarily hit for extra bases. Ichiro did his job nearly as well as any player of his era, and if you’re trying to define him by OPS you’re not looking at the bigger picture with what his job was trying to accomplish. OBP is a much more reasonable stat to look at Ichiro.
Correct, but he played how many years in Japan, that should count for something no? 60 WAR in less seasons is much more valuable than 60 WAR in 7-8 more seasons.
I’m not saying he’s the greatest hitter ever, that’s probably bonds or ted williams, but the HOF is silly either way voting no to players who surely deserve it, for whatever reason, that’s kinda my whole point.
Yes, but I don’t think you’re not understanding what I mean.
Hypothetically speaking, having 50 WAR in 10 seasons is more valuable than having 50 WAR in 15 seasons, for the most part. There’s higher season WAR and it means the player is more efficient.
Ichiro averaged about 3 WAR per year, which is good, but hardly efficient. He also has less WAR in more seasons than Todd Helton and Keith Hernandez, neither of whom are in the Hall.
Griffey averaged just under 4 WAR and got nearly every vote (not even considering his last season). Ichiro in 17* seasons is about 3.6 WAR. You’re including 5 and 12 game seasons as the last two years thats just silly…
Consider their peaks not their later years and go from there.
Yes, OBP is what matters here, and that’s the problem. His career OBP was .355. (As discussed elsewhere, that’s affected a little by the fact that he hung on until his mid-40s, but even if you take his Seattle numbers only, it’s .365. Not elite.) He finished in the top 10 in OBP in the American League only three times, and two of them were ninth and tenth. He wasn’t anything special as a leadoff hitter. (He supplemented that value a little with steals, but if the job of a leadoff hitter is to get on base, Ichiro wasn’t like some generational talent at it. He was… fine.)
True, but he didn’t walk much at all. And maybe it’s better to say batting average because with very low walk rate his OBP is almost completely hits. And hits are worth more than walks.
And in a base loaded scenario, a walk drives in one, while a hit should drive in 2+ on most cases. Ichiro hit exceptionally well and also put the ball in play depending on the team needs. That was his offensive game; being the best role player instead of trying to always be the hero.
Ichiro, CC, Wagner, Jones, and Beltran are in for me no questions asked. Utley, A-Rod, Manny, and K-Rod all have arguments and could see going either way. McCann and Martin were very undervalued for their time due to revolutions in framing data and should at least stay on for another year.
a rod isnt getting in. and the argument for him is weaker than for bonds or mcgwire etc because he did it after the first set of player were banned so he wasnt just doing what everyone else was doing and it was unambiguously against the rules.
Do we know if bonds was ever clean or are we going by when his head got big??? Seriously though, his whole career is suspect in my opinion, we just don’t know
It was reported in court that he started in 1999. I personally think the head size isn’t enough to say he wasn’t taking them before, but I do think his shoe size growing 2 1/2 sizes is decent enough proof (it’s just not something that happens to mid 30 year olds) on top of the court statement. Add on that he hit a career high of 73 HR’s at age 36 when his high in his 20’s was a more reasonable 46. In my opinion however, he already had a HOF career way before ‘99.
The thing is you have to take his whole body of work into account when deciding who’s in the hall. Sportswriters have decided that the obvious steroid users are out. There has always been controversy on who is in and who is left out. Does bonds and the steroid era players deserve to get in? I don’t know. I think bonds is a major dick so I don’t feel bad for him.
Last 4 years were
2021: 33.9%
2022: 41.4%
2023: 58.1%
2024: 61.6%
He's got 3 more cracks at it, but it will take a bit of a Larry Walker type jump for him to get this year. Not crazy to think it could happen, it's a bit of a light 1st year class
Every year the voting body loses older writers who generally don’t vote for players with a career .254 BA and fewer than 2,000 hits, and the voting body gains newer writers who are generally more open to voting for a player with 60 WAR and 24 dWAR.
It’s also just possible for voters to change their minds based on learning new things.
Players also fall off the ballot, either elected or beyond 10 years, not every voter uses all 10 spots, etc, a number of reasons. But you're right, how stats are viewed as changed a lot and makes a huge difference
Their career has been over for 5 years I believe What new info is there. I always thought a true HOF’er would get I no on first ballot. Waters HOF down when we give guys 10 chances. Either a HOF or not
The other problem with that is years where the ballot is stacked, and they might not be able to vote for someone deserving that time around. "Hey, hes got 9 years left, I'll get him next time" sort of strategy. Not that we have seen too many of those in the last few years
As someone who wouldn't have voted for him as recently as last year, I'm gradually coming around on him.
The argument that turned me around starts with the fact that there's a reasonable case for him as the greatest defensive center fielder of all time. Maybe not an ironclad case -- I'm not necessarily convinced he *is --* but I can't say he *isn't*.
And when you look at the other positions where defense really matters, the greatest defender ever at that position is in the Hall of Fame. Ozzie Smith was the greatest defensive shortstop ever, Brooks Robinson the greatest defensive 3B. Neither was a particularly good hitter, but they're both obviously Hall of Famers. (Ivan Rodriguez makes matters easier by being HOF-worthy anyway -- as does the other strong contender for greatest defensive CF, Willie Mays.)
Your call how to take Bill Mazeroski as a data point -- he's probably the greatest modern defensive second baseman, and he's in, but he's just about universally regarded as an undeserving member of the Hall. (I think the key here is that no second baseman has ever had anywhere near an Ozzie/Brooks level of impact defensively. Which makes sense, as a second baseman that good probably would have been moved to short.)
Which brings us back to Andruw. I think it's fair to say that his career defensive value wasn't quite on that Ozzie/Brooks level either. But unlike Mazeroski, Andruw in his prime was a really good hitter. So he's possibly the best ever at one really important thing (center field defense), and it's not the only source of his value (434 HR etc.) Yes, he fell off a cliff in his thirties... but the guy's almost definitely a Hall of Famer.
Andruw Rudolf Jones is a Curaçaoan former professional baseball center fielder who played 17 seasons in Major League Baseball...sorry I misremembered and spelled it like the reindeer whoops
Ichiro is easily in first ballot obviously, CC will get in, I think it should be first ballot, but he might have to wait a little. The fact that Wagner isn't in yet is a fucking joke.
(Edit to add a new point- I think Jimmy Rollins has a slightly better Hall of Fame case, and no one has him as a lock. Borderline at best. Chase has a better case?)
Close? I doubt it. He doesnt have the numbers or awards. But mainly because Lou Whitaker or even Jeff Kent aren't in.
Also, Bobby Grinch and Willie Randolph. These 4 NOT in, but Chase is? He is on par or lesser than all 4 of these players, not better.
This argument never made sense to me. Why would we want the voters to continue to not vote deserving players in because voters of the past made bad decisions?
Is Chase Utley deserving? Compared to current Hall of Famers at the position, most of his numbers and accolades are below average. He never even finished in top 5 of MVP. No Rookie of the Year. ZERO Gold Gloves.
He was really good for 5 years, only good for 5 years, and average to below average the other 5.
His power numbers, especially Home Runs, is the only thing well above average for a 2nd basemen. Though Jeff Kent is higher in power numbers (#1 in HRs)...and basically higher in nearly every other offensive category AND an MVP.
Just look at the names and numbers below and keep in mind Gold Gloves too. Other than a few random old outliers, Chase simply doesn't measure up. If Chase did become a Hall of Famer, he'd be considered one of the worst in the Hall at his position. If that's the case...why do some think he's a lock? He's a lot closer to borderline than a lock.
Not only does he not stack up with current members...he doesn't even stack up with players NOT in the Hall of Fame.
https://www.baseball-almanac.com/hof/hofst2b.shtml
I think he is borderline. My point was that because X player deserves to be in the hall but are not, it shouldn't negate a similar players chances. This is the same logic that says because Ruth did not get a 100% of the vote, no one should.
That's a different argument though. Most of the all-time greats were still first ballot or only had to wait one extra year. The percentage part is dumb. They're still Hall of Famers that made it fast.
I'm not saying voters will keep Utley out because they wrongly kept out Whitaker and Kent, I'm saying voters will most likely keep him out simply because Utley wasn't good enough.
I mean, Marcus Semien is near Utley caliber. And (before this season) Xander Bogaerts has been very productive. Anyone calling them possible Hall of Famers?
And then of course Jose Altuve is the best 2nd basemen in a while...better stats and accomplishments than Utley.
Voters will look at...What case does Utley have against current Hall members, players that just missed out, and the pears during his time or shortly after. His case against all of that...not a strong one.
Edit- I mean, I think Jimmy Rollins has a slightly better Hall of Fame case, and no one has him as a lock. Borderline at best. Chase has a better case?
Honestly, if Semien can stay healthy and play at a high level, I can see him being somewhat similar to Adrian Beltre. Most people would not have considered him a Hall of famer even halfway through his career. He clearly is one and belongs for sure, but he had a sneaky good career.
Yeah, Beltre ended up not only a HOFer but a no-doubt HOFer... but his career shape is deeply unusual. He started his career at 19, produced most of his value after turning 30, and remained elite (including major defensive value) up to his age-38 season.
My suspicion is that retaining defensive value in particular is harder for middle infielders than third basemen. Semien seems to be doing it through 33, but his offensive struggles are worrisome. Of course, Semien's career trajectory is also very weird, so I wouldn't count him out, but he's going to have to be a 4-5 WAR player for 4-5 more seasons to get into that level of career value.
Semien's career bWAR: 44.2
Bogaerts' career bWAR: 39.5
Rollins' career bWAR: 47.6
Utley's career bWAR: 64.5
I'm not saying this is the be-all and end-all of anything, but by this metric Utley was *way* better than Rollins, comfortably better than Kent (55.4), and on par with Biggio/Sandberg/Alomar (all between 60 and 70). Semien and Bogaerts could catch up, but would have to have a few more elite seasons, which is hard for a middle infielder over 30. Altuve's at 51.9, and seems likely to end up in the same territory as the established HOFers.
Now, the one big argument you'd make in favor of a guy with lower career value would be higher peak value. But here's Utley's bWAR by year from 2005-2009: 7.3, 7.3, 7.8, 9.0, 8.2. His OPS was over .900 every one of those years, and over this span, he was one of the top 5 defenders in the league at any position. Peak value is actually Utley's strength -- his peak was clearly higher than those of Biggio/Sandberg/Alomar, much less the guys who aren't HOFers.
(And yes, I agree that Whitaker is in this echelon too. So is Bobby Grich. They're all deserving Hall of Famers.)
People think WAR is the end all/be all deciding factor for the Hall of Fame...it never has been. Maybe it will mean more in the future, but how many Hall of Fame plaques have a player's WAR on it currently?
Also, if you want to use WAR, Willie Randolph and Bobby Grich are both higher. Whitaker is a LOT higher. Jeff Kent is less but has a LOT better overall numbers and if he was nicer to the media, he would probably be in.
Chase barely stacks up with those currently in, and 3 to 4 players NOT in have a better case. If it was just one or two, I'd say he has a good chance to get in, but that's not the case.
I don't know why I'm getting so many downvotes because Chase's Hall of Fame case gets brought up a lot, and whenever it does, half the time it never gets a direct answer since people only quote It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia, and whenever there IS any real discussion, half don't think he stacks up and mentions a lot of the same things I just did.
If the majority doesn't automatically think he's a Hall of Famer, then why do so many people on THIS post blatantly disagree and think he's a lock?
Personally, simply because he's so well liked and didn't have much competition at second base during his time...I give him a 50% of getting in. If he does, it will be after a long wait, and only get in by a couple votes. People thinking he's a sure fire lock just doesn't make sense to me.
I mean, Gold Gloves are an extremely silly popularity contest. He was the most valuable fielder at any position in 2008, and he had half a dozen seasons that were almost as good. MVP voting is (somewhat) less silly, but he was one of the top 5 players in the league every year from 2005 to '09.
Utley is pretty comparable to the likes of Biggio, Sandberg, and Alomar, all of whom were uncontroversial HOFers (subsequent developments aside) -- about 60-65 WAR. His peak was higher than any of them. I don't know that I'd put him in before Whitaker or Grich, but he's absolutely on par with the modern second basemen who have gotten into the Hall.
He’ll get in too because he had a long career in a big market or two. Who cares about stats?
Rolen, Baines, Helton.
That’s the bar now. So get ready for some big classes coming up!
Not a good arguement because all those players HAVE good stats....all much better than Chase Utley. Baines and Helton have great overall career numbers, and some people were a little surprised about Rolen, but he has a Rookie of the Year and EIGHT Gold Gloves, and the thing this sub loves more anything...higher WAR.
I mean, if anything, the 3 examples you just provided are examples I would have used on why Chase DOESNT deserve to be in the Hall.
A lot of people thought all those 3 were borderline or not deserving at all. But I'd say all 3 have a BETTER case than Utley. If that's the case, then why do so many people think Utley is a lock if he's no better than a borderline Hall of Famer?
I just said in a previous comment...I still give him a 50% chance, but he's far from a lock. If he does get in, he'll get the Fred McGriff treatment first.
Derek Jeter has 5 Gold Gloves, tells you everything you need to know about the award. According to advanced metrics Utley was one of the top few defensive second basemen in the league.
Inning for inning, Wagner is probably the most dominate lefty pitcher of all-time. Certainly the most dominate lefty reliever, but it's hard to compare relievers to starting pitchers. He belongs in the HOF.
If we were going to induct multiple relief pitchers, sure. We've had a lot of, in retrospect, extremely marginal players get into the Hall as relievers, so I'm wary of voting in any more. Even Rivera would have been a grudging selection for me.
(I wonder: is Jacob DeGrom a Hall of Famer if he never pitches again? If the argument for all these relievers is "yes, he pitched only 1000 innings, but he was really dominant in those innings"... DeGrom is up to 1356.1 innings with a 155 ERA+.)
I think they *are* elected... when it's deserved. But it's inherently a lower-impact position, so the bar has to be higher accordingly.
A modern relief pitcher, for his career, throws about 1000 innings. That's the equivalent of about a third of a starter's career. Now, a starter can certainly be elected based on a third of his career -- Sandy Koufax, for example, was a Hall of Famer based almost entirely on 5-6 seasons. But most relievers, by virtue of the fact that they don't play very much, don't have the career-long impact on the game that even a pretty good starter does.
Mariano Rivera was three orders of magnitude above any other reliever in MLB history... which made him a 56.3 WAR player. A starter could post 56 WAR and not be considered more than a marginal Hall candidate. And then you move down to guys like Lee Smith and Trevor Hoffman, who were very good players... and neither one of them posted even 30 career WAR.
You could just as easily ask "if there are no long snappers and only 1-2 punters etc. in the Football Hall of Fame, what's the point of having those positions?" And the answer is, "well, you need them to play the game... but that doesn't ultimately make them terribly important."
Yeah, I said Mariano was several notches above any other full-career reliever, and was a worthy Hall of Famer.
(Whether happening to be on teams that played in the postseason should award extra credit is another question.)
I'm not sure what Utley's case is if Kent isn't in.
Beltran should be in before Jones, but both will need a pretty soft class to compete with. This isn't necessarily that class. Ichiro, Sabathia and Wagner will get in, with percentages in that order, then I think it'll be a pretty large drop off from Wagner in the high 70's to the next guy, either Jones or Beltran, in mid to low 60's.
Ohtani was cleared by the FBI though. That wasn’t an MLB investigation where they can put their finger on the scale. The FBI has no reason to lie and cover for a foreign national. If Ohtani was betting on baseball, he would have been charged
Ichiro was... okay. Probably a Hall of Famer, but coming from Japan at 27 and the fact that his value was derived interestingly are doing a lot of the work here. Aside from that... lot of batting average, not as much power or OBP as I would have liked to see. I'd vote for him, but I'd respect someone arguing to the contrary.
Over 3,000 hits and as you stated starting at 27 years old… holds the record for most hits in a season, 10 straight seasons over 200 hits… look up how many have done that. And oh yea, do not try to go first to third on a single to right field. He didn’t hit home runs… would go rather have a guy hit .350, with 10 HR, or a guy hit .209 with 45 HR?? You must be a chick, because chicks dig the long ball
I mean, the lack of home runs isn't even the biggest issue here. It's the lack of on-base percentage. .355 for his career, .365 in Seattle, only one season over .400. Those numbers are fine, I wouldn't be looking to replace them if my leadoff hitter posted them, but they're not special.
Yes, he accumulated a lot of singles (some of them by playing long after he held any actual value to a team.)
*Also,* he hardly ever walked, and as you mentioned, his power was nonexistent. Like it or not, these things help win baseball games. If he wasn't a prolific and efficient stealer of bases, and an effective defender (albeit at a corner outfield position), .311/.355/.402 wouldn't be Hall of Fame numbers, no matter how much of an accumulator he was.
But he was an efficient stealer of bases and one of the best right fielders of his time (at least). Those combined with his hitting make him a hall of famer. At least.
Yes, I agree with you there. But I think, fundamentally, he gets way more credit for being a leadoff guy than he deserves, because he simply didn't walk enough to register an elite on-base percentage.
I don't discount that... but I certainly don't celebrate it. I don't believe in enshrining an undeserving player, or omitting a deserving one, based on, uh, *vibes*.
But sure, Ichiro's just about a deserving player. He's the kind of borderline case where he had a couple great seasons, he was really good at some things, he was overrated in a few ways, but I'm fine with vibes boosting him the rest of the way in. If I didn't feel the vibes, the raw facts are a lot more iffy.
You’re definitely not gonna find a crowd to support that point of view, but you’ve explained it well enough that I’d be stupid to say it’s nonsense. Even if the “vibes” make me want to ;)
Cheers.
I mean based on his performance when he began versus his performance in Japan, we can roughly estimate he would have been a 100-110 WAR player if he got on an MLB roster at 20.
His (immediate) peak was absolutely HOF level. And he got the counting stats. I gotta admit I don’t get what people want.
I’m sorry, what??
He retired with 57 WAR and his first season was age 27. Which means you’re assuming if he came over at 20 he would have put up 43-53 WAR those 6 missing years. Or matching his actual career high WAR every year for 6 years starting at age 20.
Only 18 players in baseball history have managed 43 WAR before age 27. Ichiro is not in that caliber of player
I use bWAR but whatever. 57… 60. Either way.
Considering that his first 4-5 seasons he averaged about 7 WAR, and his value was heavily derived from baserunning and defense, which are variables that consistently
peak earliest in a career, it is absolutely likely that he would have averaged 7 war from 20-26. It may even underestimate the level of defensive value he would have provided at those ages.
7x7 is 49. 49 plus 57 or 60… and you get 100-110.
His Japanese stats at 20 were already at his peak level and we know how those numbers translated early in his career in MLB.
Ichiro had 2 seasons over 6bWAR in the MLB, it is a giant stretch to say he would have had 7 seasons of 7+ WAR had he come earlier
(I don't agree with the original point though, I think it's a joke if you don't vote for Ichiro)
His average for his first 4 years was 6.5+. His average for his first 8 years was just under 6. And of course I wouldn’t expect him to be OVER 7 every year. The point is what his average would have been. If he was over 7 every year his average would probably have be been 9+
Again, for a player whose value is disproportionately based on defense and baserunning, with defense peaking in the early to mid 20s for most players, it isn’t remotely a stretch to believe he was a true 7 WAR player from 20-26. We likely missed out on most of his peak.
If it’s 6 WAR instead of 7 for those ages then he’s still a 100 WAR player…
Suzuki had 52 WAR in the NBP from 1994-2000 [http://npbstats.com/players/db/batting/?wdt\_search=104166](http://npbstats.com/players/db/batting/?wdt_search=104166) Which would be around 9 WAR per 162 game season in the MLB. Would that translate into 7 WAR per 162 games in the MLB. Available research says likely no.
One available MLE for Ichiro gave Ichiro around 31 WAR when I prorated his stats to 700 PA, which would overrate him if anything. The other site rates him a little higher, so he would be about 34 WAR\[5 per year\] at the maximum possible estimate. Which puts him at 94 total. Considering the actual MLE gives him 23 WAR in those 7 years, 83 total. This is a long way from 100 WAR.
Link to MLE [https://homemlb.wordpress.com/2021/05/06/discovering-japanese-right-fielders-part-ii/](https://homemlb.wordpress.com/2021/05/06/discovering-japanese-right-fielders-part-ii/)
Except that his NPB stats famously translated to a far higher degree than other players? Which we actually know is true? With very large sample sizes proving it during his first years in the league?
And how is 700 PA overstating it when MLB seasons are longer and he often exceeded 700…?
Ichiro's fangraphs average his first 5 years was 5.4 So pretty close in line with the high end of the MLE. Average of bbref and fangraphs, 5.7. And I find it difficult to imagine Ichiro in his early 20s being as good as he would be in the majors at his peak, very few players are. Age 27 when he hit the majors, is about the average player's prime. His stolen base rates in Japan the last few seasons before the majors, much lower than his MLB rate, so doesn't seem like he was getting more value from that. Defense I don't know the formula, but it makes sense to not be as strong on defense in your early 20s, also looks like he was playing more in center field which could be part of the change in rating, he was decent but not phenomenal at center in the majors.
King Felix isn't a hall of famer. When starters with 70 career war sit on the ballot for years a guy below 50 isn't getting in. His career was basically over at 30, he doesn't have the longevity needed.
I have a feeling Felix gets in, but I don't think it's this year or even next year.
If A-Rod gets in it's a while off, the voters have to change their opinion on PEDs, Manny doesn't make it in without the help of the Veterans Committee. He'd need an unprecedented jump to get to that 75%, also a PED thing obviously. Numbers are easy.
These are my Hall predictions, not necessarily how I'd vote.
Who WILL get in? Probably just Ichiro and Wagner.
Who SHOULD? Well, a bunch of people, starting with Ichiro, Sabathia, Andruw Jones.
And not Wagner. He would be in the running for one of the worst inductions of all time.
Curious, what makes you say that about Wagner? I can see someone saying he’s borderline, but not the worst induction of all time. Wagner exceeds some current HOFers on some stats.
'Current Hall of Famers' is never a good metric. It just compounds problems.
Why is Wagner not a Hall of Fame player? Because he hardly played. It would be like inducting a pinch hitter.
He averaged 55 innings per season. 900 CAREER innings. That is just not enough.
Mariano Rivera had double the career of Wagner.
If ichiro doesn’t get 100%, whoever didn’t vote for him Needs to have their voting privileges taken away
There's always that odd contingent that says, "Well, Babe Ruth wasn't unanimous, so no one should be!," but those people are deeply unserious and should be ignored. Ichiro's the lockiest lock for a unanimous vote, and anyone who says otherwise should absolutely have their voting privileges revoked.
"His numbers in NY and MIA were not great!" Will be some bs reason.
Leading up to his 10th ab he had dropped below .300, clearly not a unanimous guy /s
Had me in the first half...
It’s not that serious
Voters will sometimes leave obvious choices for induction off their ballots so they can vote for lesser players who might be at risk of being removed from the ballot due to receiving less than 5% of the vote. A maximum of ten players can be selected by each voter. If a voter thinks 11 players are worthy, for example, they might leave off a surefire Hall Of Famer in an attempt to keep another player on the ballot.
I think that the exception not the norm. A lot of the voters are insufferable and petty. That giving them too much credit
At least one will leave ichiro off because he spent so much of his career in Japan even though his mlb career alone is hall of fame worthy. They'll make arguments that don't matter/make no sense to justify it ("he's not the hits leader if we only look at mlb", but they'll use 3 paragraphs to say it so it's not obvious).
He’ll be a first ballot without a doubt, but I’d bet that some jackass (or likely a few) out there votes no to be different or something. Same thing they did with Griffey, Jeter, Chipper Jones, etc.
There’s probably about 3 dozen guys you could say that about
It truly pisses me off the only unaminous choice is a relief pitcher.
Griffey Jr had a case to be the first
Probably will be the same fuckknuckles who didn’t vote for Griffey
Well get ready for it bc there is always one writer that thinks nobody should be 100%. Baseball has the worst gate keepers to the HOF. Certain criteria that keep some guys out while other pass having fallen short of the same criteria. The other sports get it right. They out in players that impacted the game and were the best of their era. You never hear “oh well he was only the best player for 6 years after that he was slightly above average”
He didn't win a World Series, so I am not voting him in. /S
This
Ichiro didn’t get on base enough for a lead off hitter to be unanimous among stat heads. Tim Raines had an OBP of .385, Rickey Henderson had a career OBP of .401. Ichiro had an OBP of .355 because he didn’t take as many walks as those other guys. Ichiro is still HOF worthy as one of the best slap hitters, but I don’t think his stats support a unanimous vote.
Yeah, I mean Ichiro around the 700th best hitter ever by both OPS and OPS+, so clearly deserves to be unanimous
I remember my first sake-bomb 🇯🇵
He definitely voted for Harold Baines.
Are we ignoring his superlative contributions on defense, the base paths, and to baseball as an international sport
I'll accept this case. He may even be a Hofer, I dunno, but for pointing out how he's far from the greatest ever statically as a hitter, I get down voted like crazy. Stats don't tow the party line... Is it them or my pointing them out that angers so many?
It's probably because you think stats tow any line instead of them actually toeing the line. But I digress... The stats you offered up seems like you're offering situational metrics to throw shade at his obvious abilities. I grow weary of the overhyped, multi-lettered acronyms that are so watered down as compared to definitive categories such as HITS, STOLEN BASES, & RUNS. All that silly jargon is as clear as in 630+ at bats a season, Ichiro got a hit 200+ times for 10 seasons in a row. Stop overanalyzing it & simply appreciate the basic numbers that none of his contemporaries could match.
I don't think stats toe a line, my point is people find these stats that don't seem to toe that line inconvenient. That said, however, analysis for induction, especially when the eye test can be so affected by results as to have people clamouring for unanimity for an overhyped player are valuable. I realize he brings base running value and fielding value (at a lowered value position), but though above average in obp (if not as much as you expected by his avg), the fact is that runs are more likely scored by teams that fail to make outs (read: obp) and that this is the single most important metric for offensive baseball (and its converse defensively) matters. Failure to grasp that and love Ichiro due to what he did well is fine, but doesn't make him a top 100 hitter of all time, and deeper analysis is a crucial part of Hall support.
It's probably the cherry picking
He’s a HOFer, but also the most overrated baseball player ever. Way too many people think he’s like top 20 or top 10 all time. It’s absolutely insane and I don’t get why people have so much trouble rating him properly
He was a prolific singles hitter, but didn't walk much and had little power.
Yea if he had come around 10 years later and been taught not to trade power for contact, he could have been so much better.
Career OPS+ of 107, which makes him slightly above average
What an ignorant statement. 10 straight years of 200 hits, 10 straight years .300+ avg., 10 years with 30+ SB, an MVP. He is 25th all time in hits despite not seeing a pitch in the MLB game until he was 27. But some worthless stat says he was average because it factors in his home stadium?!? I’m sorry but I don’t think we should let equations determine HOFers instead of watching them play
Side question: since we're now factoring Negro Leagues numbers into MLB stats, should we begin factoring in overseas production into HOF discussions?
Why not let’s count them in the record books too. I’d be okay saying Ichiro has like 5,000 hits
OPS+ is a more reliable stat than the ones you mentioned
He holds the record for most hits in a season you utter dunce
Yes -- which is in part a function of being good at hitting singles, in part a function of getting a lot of plate appearances that season, and in part a function of almost never walking. He never even led his league in on-base percentage. Hits are one way to get on base... when you factor in all the ways to get on base, he had one really good (but not spectacular) season, several above-average seasons, and that's it.
Is clown college a two-year or a four-year degree?
This guy couldn't even pass the entrance exam at clown college
His ops+ says he is “slightly above average” but yet he is 25th all time in hits that doesn’t seem like a reliable “stat” to me. Only 24 other players in the history of the game hit the ball more times than him. The equation fails here.
It’s cause he had no juice. Low average with power is more valuable than a high average contact hitter.
70th overall in times on base. Only 69 other players got on base more times than him. Hits are a cherry-picked subset of that. (And 49th in plate appearances. Only 48 players had more *chances* to get on base than he did.) Anyway, I'm not even saying 70th is bad... but guys who got on base more than Ichiro include such illustrious figures as Rusty Staub, both Dwight and Darrell Evans, Bobby Abreu, Luis Gonzalez, Omar Vizquel, and Johnny Damon. A couple of those guys have decent Hall of Fame cases, most of them don't. None of them are in the Hall of Fame. Getting on base a bunch *by itself*, especially when it's a function of longevity, doesn't make you a Hall of Famer. (Jamie Moyer was 40th all-time in recording outs. Dennis Martinez was 41st. Does that make them Hall of Famers? Harold Baines got on base 150 more times than Ichiro. Does that make his induction any less absurd?)
It's a very reliable stat, you're just stuck in the past
Not at all. I’m only 40, I just haven’t seen the future yet. This is a stat that makes no sense. By your logic here I am to believe that Danny Tartabull(133) is a better than Tony Gwynn(132). If I had no idea who these two guys were this “stat” would lead me to believe this. That’s my point. I don’t want someone in 20 years thinking that John Kruk(134) was better at hitting than Johnny Bench(120).
You're cherry picking data. Obviously, no one stat is perfect, but OPS gives a more comprehensive look into a batter's performance. You're also saying "stat", like I made up OPS, which is a common metric that's been around for a very long time.
Your switching it to OPS I said OPS+ which was the only stat you mentioned in the comment I replied to. OPS is much more reliable than OPS+ which is clearly not a good measure of who a better hitter is when looked at by itself which is what you did when I replied. You cherry picked a stat to make Ichiro look bad then you changed to a different stat mid argument so you could feel like you were right.
Who said anything about a home stadium? It factors in his .355 career OBP and .402 career slugging, both of which are nothing special. (And of course those numbers are affected by him hanging around way past his prime, but even if you cut off his tenures with the Yankees and Marlins, he ends up with a slash line of .321/.365/.416. There's a *lot* of empty average here, but that doesn't make it less empty.) As I said below, I think he's a Hall of Famer -- but he wasn't actually especially good at getting on base, his power was nonexistent, and he only had two legitimately great seasons (2004 and 2001.) He ekes his way in on defensive/baserunning value and vibes.
Ops+ takes into account the stadium a player played in look it up
As a very, very, very small factor, sure. Because he played in Seattle, his OPS+ would have been slightly... increased. His home field was a pitchers' park. OPS+ actually *helps* him a little. The much bigger factor here is that a .757 career OPS isn't anything special, no matter what stadium you do it in. And even if you remove slugging from the equation, a .355 career OBP also isn't anything special. Ben Zobrist's career OBP was .358. Dave Hollins, Edgardo Alfonzo, and JT Snow were at .357. Michael Brantley and Orlando Merced were both at .355. Now, obviously, Ichiro was a better player than any of those guys -- in part because of longevity, in part because of defensive/baserunning value. And .355 beats league average, which generally hovers around .330. You don't need to tell me those things. But I think people treat Ichiro as a great leadoff hitter when the results just don't support that notion. As good as he was at getting on base via singles, he was equally bad at drawing walks. As a result, he was 2nd in the American League in OBP in 2004, 9th in 2007, 10th in 2002... and that's it. Just not elite numbers.
The stats you mentioned don’t support that, but Ichiro Suzuki had more hits batting lead off than everyone to ever play besides Rickey Henderson. That’s better than average
You're doing a parody here, right? You could at least *argue* that hitting singles was a valuable skill of its own, rather than a subset of getting on base. "While batting leadoff," though, is on par with "on odd-numbered Tuesdays." It's a clear function of usage, and simply means that the teams he played on had him batting leadoff more than any other player. (With the possible exception of Rickey, who was obviously in a whole other galaxy.)
This guy must be a WAR worshipper. The dude has 5,000 hits with over 3,000 in mlb. Any argument against him being in the hall is literally absurd.
If all you do is hit slap singles, and you have that many plate appearances, you’re going to accumulate a bunch of slap singles. Big whoop. .355 career on-base percentage is unimpressive. I’ve said 15 times that I think he just about scrapes into the Hall of Fame, but he’s not like an inner-circle guy.
Rate stats are so unfair to Ichiro because: (A) he missed like 5 years of all-star caliber play while in Japan, and (B) he played until his mid-40s. The *majority* of his MLB career came after the age of 35. Do you realize how insane that is? Through his age 35 season his OBP was like .378, which is better than the career OBPs of Ken Griffey Jr and Albert Pujols, and within a couple percentage points of Derek Jeter’s and Alex Rodriguez’s. Stop this nonsense talking point about Ichiro not getting on base. You’re talking about literally-in-his-40s Ichiro, not prime Ichiro
Again. He was top-8 in the AL in on-base percentage exactly once. He was never an elite OBP guy.
[удалено]
I've mentioned it several times elsewhere. Keep up. You're making excuses for post-peak seasons, you're cherry-picking his peak, and it's still nothing special. Because his on-base ability was never, not once, not a day in his life, special. And yes, if you cherry-pick his top 8 seasons, he had a .378 OBP. The same, as you point out, as the full career numbers for a bunch of Hall of Famers who did stuff other than hitting slap singles. Not as good as Tim Raines's entire career -- and I think Raines is a clear Hall of Famer, but he as also better than Ichiro in every other way imaginable. Also: not as good as Dave Magadan's entire career. Not as good as Rusty Greer, Tim Salmon, JD Drew. Not as good as Brian Giles, Nick Johnson, John Olerud, John Kruk, Mike Hargrove, Bobby Abreu. Not as good as Mark Grace, Mo Vaughn, Kevin Youkilis, Merv Rettenmund, or Alvin Davis. And that's Ichiro's *peak*, as compared to those guys' entire careers. .378. That's the number you've massaged and cut out and shoved in to get. Oh, a .378 peak OBP, that's *real* special. If he had only played those 9 seasons, that OBP would have been -- gasp! -- 197th all-time.
Are we ignoring his superlative contributions on defense, the base paths, and to baseball as an international sport
The guy had a CANNON for an arm.
Imagine writing this and thinking you have a point 😂
Numbers don't lie
This is why we don’t use sabermetrics to determine a players worth. If you saw him play there was no doubt he was a HOFer
The eye test lies. Remember the people giving all those Gold Gloves to Derek Jeter? Remember the years when batting average was worshipped without context and the ability to take a walk was ignored? Remember when bullshit stats like RBI, wins, and saves were taken seriously? Thankfully , we’ve been beyond that point for a while now. We have the ability to look through 100+ years of baseball, determine what plays actually contribute to teams winning baseball games, and reward the players who consistently make those plays. This isn’t some new idea, and it’s pretty obvious: if you want to know how good a player was, you can look at the record of what he actually did.
I hate to break this to you, but sabermetrics are common now.
Huh? Every front office and most voters do use sabermetrics in that way lol
It’s almost like he spent 6 years of his prime in another league and also played until he was in his mid-40s. Of course his career rate stats aren’t to be as good. Literally half of his MLB career came after the age of 35
Incorporating slugging % with regards to one of the most pure contact hitters, if not the most in recent memory, isn’t a smart move. The job of a contact hitter is to get on base, not necessarily hit for extra bases. Ichiro did his job nearly as well as any player of his era, and if you’re trying to define him by OPS you’re not looking at the bigger picture with what his job was trying to accomplish. OBP is a much more reasonable stat to look at Ichiro.
Fine, then we'll use WAR. Ichiro's is 60, which makes him a borderline HOF, not a no doubt unanimous one.
Correct, but he played how many years in Japan, that should count for something no? 60 WAR in less seasons is much more valuable than 60 WAR in 7-8 more seasons. I’m not saying he’s the greatest hitter ever, that’s probably bonds or ted williams, but the HOF is silly either way voting no to players who surely deserve it, for whatever reason, that’s kinda my whole point.
It'll definitely count for something, but I'm not sure how much. Japanese baseball is considered a bit below MLB.
Yes, but I don’t think you’re not understanding what I mean. Hypothetically speaking, having 50 WAR in 10 seasons is more valuable than having 50 WAR in 15 seasons, for the most part. There’s higher season WAR and it means the player is more efficient.
Ichiro averaged about 3 WAR per year, which is good, but hardly efficient. He also has less WAR in more seasons than Todd Helton and Keith Hernandez, neither of whom are in the Hall.
Griffey averaged just under 4 WAR and got nearly every vote (not even considering his last season). Ichiro in 17* seasons is about 3.6 WAR. You’re including 5 and 12 game seasons as the last two years thats just silly… Consider their peaks not their later years and go from there.
Griffey was a far better all around player.
Again, you’re using a bunch of seasons in his 40s and late 30s to build out these career averages. You’re not very bright
You've never even met me, and you're hurling insults.
Yes, OBP is what matters here, and that’s the problem. His career OBP was .355. (As discussed elsewhere, that’s affected a little by the fact that he hung on until his mid-40s, but even if you take his Seattle numbers only, it’s .365. Not elite.) He finished in the top 10 in OBP in the American League only three times, and two of them were ninth and tenth. He wasn’t anything special as a leadoff hitter. (He supplemented that value a little with steals, but if the job of a leadoff hitter is to get on base, Ichiro wasn’t like some generational talent at it. He was… fine.)
His career OBP is .355, which would put him in the Hall of Very Good.
True, but he didn’t walk much at all. And maybe it’s better to say batting average because with very low walk rate his OBP is almost completely hits. And hits are worth more than walks.
Not necessarily. He was a leadoff hitter, so his main job was getting on base.
And in a base loaded scenario, a walk drives in one, while a hit should drive in 2+ on most cases. Ichiro hit exceptionally well and also put the ball in play depending on the team needs. That was his offensive game; being the best role player instead of trying to always be the hero.
I’d vote Ichiro, CC, Jones, Wagner. I’m coming around on Utley. Somebody from those Phillies teams (him or Rollins) needs to get in.
Scott Rolen did that’s plenty
He wasn’t from that era of Phillies. Rolen was with the Jays and Reds by then.
Utley has a monkey paw now so..
Ichiro, CC, Wagner, Jones, and Beltran are in for me no questions asked. Utley, A-Rod, Manny, and K-Rod all have arguments and could see going either way. McCann and Martin were very undervalued for their time due to revolutions in framing data and should at least stay on for another year.
a rod isnt getting in. and the argument for him is weaker than for bonds or mcgwire etc because he did it after the first set of player were banned so he wasnt just doing what everyone else was doing and it was unambiguously against the rules.
There's also evidence arod has been using since high school. Bonds was great before roids and I still have him out.
Do we know if bonds was ever clean or are we going by when his head got big??? Seriously though, his whole career is suspect in my opinion, we just don’t know
It was reported in court that he started in 1999. I personally think the head size isn’t enough to say he wasn’t taking them before, but I do think his shoe size growing 2 1/2 sizes is decent enough proof (it’s just not something that happens to mid 30 year olds) on top of the court statement. Add on that he hit a career high of 73 HR’s at age 36 when his high in his 20’s was a more reasonable 46. In my opinion however, he already had a HOF career way before ‘99.
The thing is you have to take his whole body of work into account when deciding who’s in the hall. Sportswriters have decided that the obvious steroid users are out. There has always been controversy on who is in and who is left out. Does bonds and the steroid era players deserve to get in? I don’t know. I think bonds is a major dick so I don’t feel bad for him.
Let them all in screw it
Jones has serious links to ped’s and Beltran cheated with the 2017 astros
Can't wait for "The Man" to get in.
Andruw
7.3% of the vote year one on the ballot to a plaque would be sick for him. You predict the voters to get him in or you would vote for him?
I would certainly vote for him! But he’s rising pretty quickly. He’ll get in this year or next I think.
Last 4 years were 2021: 33.9% 2022: 41.4% 2023: 58.1% 2024: 61.6% He's got 3 more cracks at it, but it will take a bit of a Larry Walker type jump for him to get this year. Not crazy to think it could happen, it's a bit of a light 1st year class
Never understood this. He hasn’t done anything in last 4 years to improve his stats. lol
Every year the voting body loses older writers who generally don’t vote for players with a career .254 BA and fewer than 2,000 hits, and the voting body gains newer writers who are generally more open to voting for a player with 60 WAR and 24 dWAR. It’s also just possible for voters to change their minds based on learning new things.
Players also fall off the ballot, either elected or beyond 10 years, not every voter uses all 10 spots, etc, a number of reasons. But you're right, how stats are viewed as changed a lot and makes a huge difference
Their career has been over for 5 years I believe What new info is there. I always thought a true HOF’er would get I no on first ballot. Waters HOF down when we give guys 10 chances. Either a HOF or not
Stats like WAR haven’t been around forever so older writers may not be familiar.
I get that but do you really have to see stats to know who was. hoF’er. Most guys you just know from watching over the years
"Do you have to have a record of what a player did to know whether what he did was valuable?"
The other problem with that is years where the ballot is stacked, and they might not be able to vote for someone deserving that time around. "Hey, hes got 9 years left, I'll get him next time" sort of strategy. Not that we have seen too many of those in the last few years
There’s never been a ballot especially lately where 10 guys even remotely belong in HOF
As someone who wouldn't have voted for him as recently as last year, I'm gradually coming around on him. The argument that turned me around starts with the fact that there's a reasonable case for him as the greatest defensive center fielder of all time. Maybe not an ironclad case -- I'm not necessarily convinced he *is --* but I can't say he *isn't*. And when you look at the other positions where defense really matters, the greatest defender ever at that position is in the Hall of Fame. Ozzie Smith was the greatest defensive shortstop ever, Brooks Robinson the greatest defensive 3B. Neither was a particularly good hitter, but they're both obviously Hall of Famers. (Ivan Rodriguez makes matters easier by being HOF-worthy anyway -- as does the other strong contender for greatest defensive CF, Willie Mays.) Your call how to take Bill Mazeroski as a data point -- he's probably the greatest modern defensive second baseman, and he's in, but he's just about universally regarded as an undeserving member of the Hall. (I think the key here is that no second baseman has ever had anywhere near an Ozzie/Brooks level of impact defensively. Which makes sense, as a second baseman that good probably would have been moved to short.) Which brings us back to Andruw. I think it's fair to say that his career defensive value wasn't quite on that Ozzie/Brooks level either. But unlike Mazeroski, Andruw in his prime was a really good hitter. So he's possibly the best ever at one really important thing (center field defense), and it's not the only source of his value (434 HR etc.) Yes, he fell off a cliff in his thirties... but the guy's almost definitely a Hall of Famer.
He should be in.
Why not he hit some HRs at 19 let him in!
Rudolph
Who?
Andruw Rudolf Jones is a Curaçaoan former professional baseball center fielder who played 17 seasons in Major League Baseball...sorry I misremembered and spelled it like the reindeer whoops
I’m the one that should apologize. I didn’t know his middle name, and missed a shot to close the loop with a reply of “Jones”. I downvoted myself.
Ichiro is easily in first ballot obviously, CC will get in, I think it should be first ballot, but he might have to wait a little. The fact that Wagner isn't in yet is a fucking joke.
Pretty much my exact take. I am pretty confident CC gets in, wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't. Agree on Wagner, but he'll make it
Utley is gonna get close.
Career numbers fall short.
Fuck Chase Utley
LOLMets
Well yeah, but still, Fuck Chase Utley
It’s hard to argue with your point. I’ll allow it.
Thank you, Your Honor
(Edit to add a new point- I think Jimmy Rollins has a slightly better Hall of Fame case, and no one has him as a lock. Borderline at best. Chase has a better case?) Close? I doubt it. He doesnt have the numbers or awards. But mainly because Lou Whitaker or even Jeff Kent aren't in. Also, Bobby Grinch and Willie Randolph. These 4 NOT in, but Chase is? He is on par or lesser than all 4 of these players, not better.
This argument never made sense to me. Why would we want the voters to continue to not vote deserving players in because voters of the past made bad decisions?
Is Chase Utley deserving? Compared to current Hall of Famers at the position, most of his numbers and accolades are below average. He never even finished in top 5 of MVP. No Rookie of the Year. ZERO Gold Gloves. He was really good for 5 years, only good for 5 years, and average to below average the other 5. His power numbers, especially Home Runs, is the only thing well above average for a 2nd basemen. Though Jeff Kent is higher in power numbers (#1 in HRs)...and basically higher in nearly every other offensive category AND an MVP. Just look at the names and numbers below and keep in mind Gold Gloves too. Other than a few random old outliers, Chase simply doesn't measure up. If Chase did become a Hall of Famer, he'd be considered one of the worst in the Hall at his position. If that's the case...why do some think he's a lock? He's a lot closer to borderline than a lock. Not only does he not stack up with current members...he doesn't even stack up with players NOT in the Hall of Fame. https://www.baseball-almanac.com/hof/hofst2b.shtml
I think he is borderline. My point was that because X player deserves to be in the hall but are not, it shouldn't negate a similar players chances. This is the same logic that says because Ruth did not get a 100% of the vote, no one should.
That's a different argument though. Most of the all-time greats were still first ballot or only had to wait one extra year. The percentage part is dumb. They're still Hall of Famers that made it fast. I'm not saying voters will keep Utley out because they wrongly kept out Whitaker and Kent, I'm saying voters will most likely keep him out simply because Utley wasn't good enough. I mean, Marcus Semien is near Utley caliber. And (before this season) Xander Bogaerts has been very productive. Anyone calling them possible Hall of Famers? And then of course Jose Altuve is the best 2nd basemen in a while...better stats and accomplishments than Utley. Voters will look at...What case does Utley have against current Hall members, players that just missed out, and the pears during his time or shortly after. His case against all of that...not a strong one. Edit- I mean, I think Jimmy Rollins has a slightly better Hall of Fame case, and no one has him as a lock. Borderline at best. Chase has a better case?
Honestly, if Semien can stay healthy and play at a high level, I can see him being somewhat similar to Adrian Beltre. Most people would not have considered him a Hall of famer even halfway through his career. He clearly is one and belongs for sure, but he had a sneaky good career.
Yeah, Beltre ended up not only a HOFer but a no-doubt HOFer... but his career shape is deeply unusual. He started his career at 19, produced most of his value after turning 30, and remained elite (including major defensive value) up to his age-38 season. My suspicion is that retaining defensive value in particular is harder for middle infielders than third basemen. Semien seems to be doing it through 33, but his offensive struggles are worrisome. Of course, Semien's career trajectory is also very weird, so I wouldn't count him out, but he's going to have to be a 4-5 WAR player for 4-5 more seasons to get into that level of career value.
Semien's career bWAR: 44.2 Bogaerts' career bWAR: 39.5 Rollins' career bWAR: 47.6 Utley's career bWAR: 64.5 I'm not saying this is the be-all and end-all of anything, but by this metric Utley was *way* better than Rollins, comfortably better than Kent (55.4), and on par with Biggio/Sandberg/Alomar (all between 60 and 70). Semien and Bogaerts could catch up, but would have to have a few more elite seasons, which is hard for a middle infielder over 30. Altuve's at 51.9, and seems likely to end up in the same territory as the established HOFers. Now, the one big argument you'd make in favor of a guy with lower career value would be higher peak value. But here's Utley's bWAR by year from 2005-2009: 7.3, 7.3, 7.8, 9.0, 8.2. His OPS was over .900 every one of those years, and over this span, he was one of the top 5 defenders in the league at any position. Peak value is actually Utley's strength -- his peak was clearly higher than those of Biggio/Sandberg/Alomar, much less the guys who aren't HOFers. (And yes, I agree that Whitaker is in this echelon too. So is Bobby Grich. They're all deserving Hall of Famers.)
People think WAR is the end all/be all deciding factor for the Hall of Fame...it never has been. Maybe it will mean more in the future, but how many Hall of Fame plaques have a player's WAR on it currently? Also, if you want to use WAR, Willie Randolph and Bobby Grich are both higher. Whitaker is a LOT higher. Jeff Kent is less but has a LOT better overall numbers and if he was nicer to the media, he would probably be in. Chase barely stacks up with those currently in, and 3 to 4 players NOT in have a better case. If it was just one or two, I'd say he has a good chance to get in, but that's not the case. I don't know why I'm getting so many downvotes because Chase's Hall of Fame case gets brought up a lot, and whenever it does, half the time it never gets a direct answer since people only quote It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia, and whenever there IS any real discussion, half don't think he stacks up and mentions a lot of the same things I just did. If the majority doesn't automatically think he's a Hall of Famer, then why do so many people on THIS post blatantly disagree and think he's a lock? Personally, simply because he's so well liked and didn't have much competition at second base during his time...I give him a 50% of getting in. If he does, it will be after a long wait, and only get in by a couple votes. People thinking he's a sure fire lock just doesn't make sense to me.
No one gives a fuck about WAR.
Plenty of people do. You don't, and that's fine.
I mean, Gold Gloves are an extremely silly popularity contest. He was the most valuable fielder at any position in 2008, and he had half a dozen seasons that were almost as good. MVP voting is (somewhat) less silly, but he was one of the top 5 players in the league every year from 2005 to '09. Utley is pretty comparable to the likes of Biggio, Sandberg, and Alomar, all of whom were uncontroversial HOFers (subsequent developments aside) -- about 60-65 WAR. His peak was higher than any of them. I don't know that I'd put him in before Whitaker or Grich, but he's absolutely on par with the modern second basemen who have gotten into the Hall.
He’ll get in too because he had a long career in a big market or two. Who cares about stats? Rolen, Baines, Helton. That’s the bar now. So get ready for some big classes coming up!
Not a good arguement because all those players HAVE good stats....all much better than Chase Utley. Baines and Helton have great overall career numbers, and some people were a little surprised about Rolen, but he has a Rookie of the Year and EIGHT Gold Gloves, and the thing this sub loves more anything...higher WAR. I mean, if anything, the 3 examples you just provided are examples I would have used on why Chase DOESNT deserve to be in the Hall. A lot of people thought all those 3 were borderline or not deserving at all. But I'd say all 3 have a BETTER case than Utley. If that's the case, then why do so many people think Utley is a lock if he's no better than a borderline Hall of Famer? I just said in a previous comment...I still give him a 50% chance, but he's far from a lock. If he does get in, he'll get the Fred McGriff treatment first.
I hate WAR too and I agree he’ll get in just because that’s the participation trophy hall of fame voters hard at work
Derek Jeter has 5 Gold Gloves, tells you everything you need to know about the award. According to advanced metrics Utley was one of the top few defensive second basemen in the league.
Haha
Love Ichiro, but not concerned. Wagner has better stats than any reliever In the HOF except for Rivera. He Must be elected!
Inning for inning, Wagner is probably the most dominate lefty pitcher of all-time. Certainly the most dominate lefty reliever, but it's hard to compare relievers to starting pitchers. He belongs in the HOF.
If we were going to induct multiple relief pitchers, sure. We've had a lot of, in retrospect, extremely marginal players get into the Hall as relievers, so I'm wary of voting in any more. Even Rivera would have been a grudging selection for me. (I wonder: is Jacob DeGrom a Hall of Famer if he never pitches again? If the argument for all these relievers is "yes, he pitched only 1000 innings, but he was really dominant in those innings"... DeGrom is up to 1356.1 innings with a 155 ERA+.)
If bullpen guys aren't deservingly elected for the hall then what's the point of having the position.
I think they *are* elected... when it's deserved. But it's inherently a lower-impact position, so the bar has to be higher accordingly. A modern relief pitcher, for his career, throws about 1000 innings. That's the equivalent of about a third of a starter's career. Now, a starter can certainly be elected based on a third of his career -- Sandy Koufax, for example, was a Hall of Famer based almost entirely on 5-6 seasons. But most relievers, by virtue of the fact that they don't play very much, don't have the career-long impact on the game that even a pretty good starter does. Mariano Rivera was three orders of magnitude above any other reliever in MLB history... which made him a 56.3 WAR player. A starter could post 56 WAR and not be considered more than a marginal Hall candidate. And then you move down to guys like Lee Smith and Trevor Hoffman, who were very good players... and neither one of them posted even 30 career WAR. You could just as easily ask "if there are no long snappers and only 1-2 punters etc. in the Football Hall of Fame, what's the point of having those positions?" And the answer is, "well, you need them to play the game... but that doesn't ultimately make them terribly important."
56 WAR. Which ignores a 0.70 postseason ERA in 141 innings...
Yeah, I said Mariano was several notches above any other full-career reliever, and was a worthy Hall of Famer. (Whether happening to be on teams that played in the postseason should award extra credit is another question.)
Write in for Pete Rose !!!!!
Ineligible by his plea agreement with the league.
Ichiro, Wagner, MAYBE cc get in. I think Felix will get in but it won't be for a few years. Beltran and Andruw Jones get in within the next 2
Yeah but the resin will burn
I agree with those 3 (Ichiro, CC, & Wagner) plus, Beltran and Andruw move upward. Utley stalls.
I'm not sure what Utley's case is if Kent isn't in. Beltran should be in before Jones, but both will need a pretty soft class to compete with. This isn't necessarily that class. Ichiro, Sabathia and Wagner will get in, with percentages in that order, then I think it'll be a pretty large drop off from Wagner in the high 70's to the next guy, either Jones or Beltran, in mid to low 60's.
Barry Bonds won't be in it so its a joke.
Worst hof in sports. With no Rose it is meaningless
Bonds, McQuire, Clemons
Ichiro, CC, Utley, Jones, and Wagner are the guys I’d 100% vote for. Don’t have the ballot in front of me, so can’t say who else.
Wagner doesn’t need to be in. Let alone over guys like Arod & Andrew Jones
Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe, McGwire, and Wally Pipp
Pete Rose should never get in the HOF while he’s alive. Gambling needs to be unforgivable
Unless you have an interpreter
Ohtani was cleared by the FBI though. That wasn’t an MLB investigation where they can put their finger on the scale. The FBI has no reason to lie and cover for a foreign national. If Ohtani was betting on baseball, he would have been charged
What a naive statement
In what way? Are you suggesting the FBI is actively covering up a foreign national’s illegal gambling and match fixing? For what purpose
Public relations
What makes you think the FBI cares about helping major league baseball with public relations?
2025
I think that Ichiro, CC, and Wagner get in. My ballot would be Ichiro, CC, Wagner, Andruw Jones, Beltran, and Utley.
Ichiro will be the only first year guy getting in this go around… and he should be the first position player to be unanimous
Ichiro was... okay. Probably a Hall of Famer, but coming from Japan at 27 and the fact that his value was derived interestingly are doing a lot of the work here. Aside from that... lot of batting average, not as much power or OBP as I would have liked to see. I'd vote for him, but I'd respect someone arguing to the contrary.
Over 3,000 hits and as you stated starting at 27 years old… holds the record for most hits in a season, 10 straight seasons over 200 hits… look up how many have done that. And oh yea, do not try to go first to third on a single to right field. He didn’t hit home runs… would go rather have a guy hit .350, with 10 HR, or a guy hit .209 with 45 HR?? You must be a chick, because chicks dig the long ball
I mean, the lack of home runs isn't even the biggest issue here. It's the lack of on-base percentage. .355 for his career, .365 in Seattle, only one season over .400. Those numbers are fine, I wouldn't be looking to replace them if my leadoff hitter posted them, but they're not special. Yes, he accumulated a lot of singles (some of them by playing long after he held any actual value to a team.) *Also,* he hardly ever walked, and as you mentioned, his power was nonexistent. Like it or not, these things help win baseball games. If he wasn't a prolific and efficient stealer of bases, and an effective defender (albeit at a corner outfield position), .311/.355/.402 wouldn't be Hall of Fame numbers, no matter how much of an accumulator he was.
But he was an efficient stealer of bases and one of the best right fielders of his time (at least). Those combined with his hitting make him a hall of famer. At least.
Yes, I agree with you there. But I think, fundamentally, he gets way more credit for being a leadoff guy than he deserves, because he simply didn't walk enough to register an elite on-base percentage.
Raw technicality, sure. But this is baseball. There’s romance and soul in this game. That can’t be discounted.
I don't discount that... but I certainly don't celebrate it. I don't believe in enshrining an undeserving player, or omitting a deserving one, based on, uh, *vibes*. But sure, Ichiro's just about a deserving player. He's the kind of borderline case where he had a couple great seasons, he was really good at some things, he was overrated in a few ways, but I'm fine with vibes boosting him the rest of the way in. If I didn't feel the vibes, the raw facts are a lot more iffy.
You’re definitely not gonna find a crowd to support that point of view, but you’ve explained it well enough that I’d be stupid to say it’s nonsense. Even if the “vibes” make me want to ;) Cheers.
I mean based on his performance when he began versus his performance in Japan, we can roughly estimate he would have been a 100-110 WAR player if he got on an MLB roster at 20. His (immediate) peak was absolutely HOF level. And he got the counting stats. I gotta admit I don’t get what people want.
I’m sorry, what?? He retired with 57 WAR and his first season was age 27. Which means you’re assuming if he came over at 20 he would have put up 43-53 WAR those 6 missing years. Or matching his actual career high WAR every year for 6 years starting at age 20. Only 18 players in baseball history have managed 43 WAR before age 27. Ichiro is not in that caliber of player
I use bWAR but whatever. 57… 60. Either way. Considering that his first 4-5 seasons he averaged about 7 WAR, and his value was heavily derived from baserunning and defense, which are variables that consistently peak earliest in a career, it is absolutely likely that he would have averaged 7 war from 20-26. It may even underestimate the level of defensive value he would have provided at those ages. 7x7 is 49. 49 plus 57 or 60… and you get 100-110. His Japanese stats at 20 were already at his peak level and we know how those numbers translated early in his career in MLB.
Ichiro had 2 seasons over 6bWAR in the MLB, it is a giant stretch to say he would have had 7 seasons of 7+ WAR had he come earlier (I don't agree with the original point though, I think it's a joke if you don't vote for Ichiro)
His average for his first 4 years was 6.5+. His average for his first 8 years was just under 6. And of course I wouldn’t expect him to be OVER 7 every year. The point is what his average would have been. If he was over 7 every year his average would probably have be been 9+ Again, for a player whose value is disproportionately based on defense and baserunning, with defense peaking in the early to mid 20s for most players, it isn’t remotely a stretch to believe he was a true 7 WAR player from 20-26. We likely missed out on most of his peak. If it’s 6 WAR instead of 7 for those ages then he’s still a 100 WAR player…
Suzuki had 52 WAR in the NBP from 1994-2000 [http://npbstats.com/players/db/batting/?wdt\_search=104166](http://npbstats.com/players/db/batting/?wdt_search=104166) Which would be around 9 WAR per 162 game season in the MLB. Would that translate into 7 WAR per 162 games in the MLB. Available research says likely no. One available MLE for Ichiro gave Ichiro around 31 WAR when I prorated his stats to 700 PA, which would overrate him if anything. The other site rates him a little higher, so he would be about 34 WAR\[5 per year\] at the maximum possible estimate. Which puts him at 94 total. Considering the actual MLE gives him 23 WAR in those 7 years, 83 total. This is a long way from 100 WAR. Link to MLE [https://homemlb.wordpress.com/2021/05/06/discovering-japanese-right-fielders-part-ii/](https://homemlb.wordpress.com/2021/05/06/discovering-japanese-right-fielders-part-ii/)
Except that his NPB stats famously translated to a far higher degree than other players? Which we actually know is true? With very large sample sizes proving it during his first years in the league? And how is 700 PA overstating it when MLB seasons are longer and he often exceeded 700…?
Ichiro's fangraphs average his first 5 years was 5.4 So pretty close in line with the high end of the MLE. Average of bbref and fangraphs, 5.7. And I find it difficult to imagine Ichiro in his early 20s being as good as he would be in the majors at his peak, very few players are. Age 27 when he hit the majors, is about the average player's prime. His stolen base rates in Japan the last few seasons before the majors, much lower than his MLB rate, so doesn't seem like he was getting more value from that. Defense I don't know the formula, but it makes sense to not be as strong on defense in your early 20s, also looks like he was playing more in center field which could be part of the change in rating, he was decent but not phenomenal at center in the majors.
He isn't even close to that caliber. His lack of power and low walk rate wouldn't have had him in the majors at 20 either.
Ichiro, CC, King Felix, Wagner, Jones, Utley, A-Rod, Manny // Dustin Pedroia doesn’t have the longevity.
King Felix isn't a hall of famer. When starters with 70 career war sit on the ballot for years a guy below 50 isn't getting in. His career was basically over at 30, he doesn't have the longevity needed.
I have a feeling Felix gets in, but I don't think it's this year or even next year. If A-Rod gets in it's a while off, the voters have to change their opinion on PEDs, Manny doesn't make it in without the help of the Veterans Committee. He'd need an unprecedented jump to get to that 75%, also a PED thing obviously. Numbers are easy. These are my Hall predictions, not necessarily how I'd vote.
I agree with you, the ones I listed would be my ballot
Cc won't be next year. Just ichiro and Wagner imo
HOF is a joke - It’s popularity contest
Who WILL get in? Probably just Ichiro and Wagner. Who SHOULD? Well, a bunch of people, starting with Ichiro, Sabathia, Andruw Jones. And not Wagner. He would be in the running for one of the worst inductions of all time.
Curious, what makes you say that about Wagner? I can see someone saying he’s borderline, but not the worst induction of all time. Wagner exceeds some current HOFers on some stats.
'Current Hall of Famers' is never a good metric. It just compounds problems. Why is Wagner not a Hall of Fame player? Because he hardly played. It would be like inducting a pinch hitter. He averaged 55 innings per season. 900 CAREER innings. That is just not enough. Mariano Rivera had double the career of Wagner.
Why no love for Wagner? RP are a different animal but he was the real deal.
Wagner is the second best reliever ever man, come on.