Snapshot of _Labour leads Reform by 23%. Joint-highest Reform %. Joint-lowest Conservative %. 🇬🇧 Westminster VI (21-24 June): Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1) Changes +/- 19-20 June_ :
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I do wonder how much it'll carry over, the Tories offer nothing to anyone and have essentially capitulated with their rhetoric about preventing a supermajority, if you're voting regarding immigration, you'll stick with reform.
Seemed like they could get away with anything back in 2019, now we know that's not true. All the negative stories have sunk them and right before an election they get hit with another scandal? It's a disaster (if you're a Tory).
I don't understand how Reform are in that position though.
I got my local candidate's flyer in the post today. No details on policy whatsoever. Just a checklist:
- Bring back freedom (whatever that means)
- Net Zero Migration (details ommited)
- New NHS model (ahem *privatised*, but we don't want to say that)
- I live locally.
- Being back freedom (yes, again)
There were a few other similarly inane points, but that was literally the flyer.
Who is reading that garbage and saying *"Yes, this seems like well thought out, workable plan"*?
>New NHS model (ahem privatised, but we don't want to say that)
"Nige says it how it is. He's brave. If he wanted to privatise the NHS, he'd just come out and say it. Just more MSM nonsense. "
- From a literal real-life conversation I had today.
I know someone who said "Farage wouldn't be soft on Russia".
They're so far removed from the nitty gritty, people can project whatever they like onto them.
I think a lot of reform voters just want to punish the Tories. The biggest one is on immigration. Every Tory PM in the last 14 years ran on "controlling our borders" and now migration is at a record high. Those that feel strongly on that issue are rightly angry at the Tories for all the lying and just want to see them fail.
> I don't understand how Reform are in that position though.
The country is full of scam artist politicians and corrupt media owners pumping out lies for their own benefit and a large proportion of the population gullible enough to believe it.
There's not much more to it than that.
Please, let's see this happen. Lib Dems as the official opposition whilst Labour try to find enough space in the government benches for everyone to sit.
It doesn't work like that. Think there are only ~250 seats each side of the commons, and the rule is past a certain number of MP's (i.e. when it's impossible for the none government to fill it), some of the government side will sit on part of the opposition benches when the house is full.
Generally, the opening of Parliament, so this time it will be an absolute mess. Also any important votes, the 1st budget will probably be a key one to get through
100% this.
I've been saying this for months when people fret about such a massive majority being "Dangerous".
Yes, such a massive majority for the Tories, or Reform WOULD be dangerous, because they are intolerant, dangerous people.
A massive majority for a moderate party with a left leaning faction is not "Dangerous" in any way at all.
*YOU* personally might not like some of the things that might get passed. But having unfettered power to fix some of the shit that's been broken and maybe level the playing field a little bit with regards to inequality is not "dangerous".
It *would* be dangerous if an ideologically intolerant party/leader got in, because thats when things like concentration camps, genocides, and hollocausts happen.
Which is why PR is still an important thing to push for. But pretending Labour having a large majority is "Dangerous" when being led by a literal human rights lawyer who is borderline obsessed with lowering inequality is just ridiculous.
Do you mind explaining why that would be? Presumably it's so they
(Labour) can keep bringing up the Tories failures to look good but that's just a guess.
That's fine for the first year but Lib Dem opposition is better for Labour and the country over the course of the five years. PMQs would be a fair bit more constructive instead of it being silly culture war non-issues that are likely to be the big dumb important topic of the day in the conservative media.
However I am receptive to the argument that Tories at about 100 or so is better for Labour because they'd be strong enough to not completely fold to Farage and thus perpetuate the Tory civil war.
Davey's lib Dems are a very different style of party to any Tory party in recent years. There's good reason to suspect PMQs would be different with him as LOTO compared to whoever replaced Sunak.
I more mean jeering, making points solely for the Facebook clip, not attending any sessions which don't generate publicity, stupid gotchas will all still be present. I would expect it to turn into some well oiled ancient greek debating society.
Between 10pm and 6am you’d have to wait an average of 12.5 minutes between each Tory win announcement. But only 0.9mins between Labour wins.
They’d have time to go in-depth on every single Tory win.
We need a bingo card; I predict “Of course, it’s a very difficult night for us, but…” will make a lot of appearances.
Not sure how I’d do that haha, took an awfully long time to get all the images and text lined up for this one so reshuffling would be quite a process. Could simplify it for that purpose I suppose
If the result is anywhere close to this and the Tories start moaning about representation, interviewers need to immediately start quoting all their disingenuous nonsense about how FPTP is the best system because it produces strong governments.
Yeah, it doesn't make sense in this country. In countries with a written constitution, "supermajority" has a concrete meaning whereby governing parties can amend the constitution without calling a referendum. But in the UK, any change to the law, no matter how profound or drastic, simply requires a majority vote in the House of Commons. Sure, the Lords might throw the odd bill back and the King could refuse to sign off on something, but both institutions could be swept away by a majority vote in the Commons.
Realistically, the only power that could stand in the way of a cohesive and determined majority government with no respect for tradition or democratic norms is the military.
Isn't it just a replacement word for having such a majority he won't have to pander to fringe MPs or groups to get policy through. You only need 50%+1 MPs to have complete control of the Commons but if you're 75% of the commons you can tell a 3rd of your MPs to jog on when they don't like something without it affecting the results.
Yep..... I do worry a tad though about alternatives that give very right wing parties a voice in government, but perhaps (he says grudgingly) that's democracy
What do you thinks been happening the last 5-6 years? The right wing have been given the keys, FPTP is no longer able to claim to protect against extreme governments (how else can you describe the Torys as they are now) or hung parliaments or coalitions, it's literally useless and always has been.
Always has been a trash system.
You can blame the Parliamentary Labour Party for it being that way. Thankfully Labour *members* support electoral reform.
If this result holds, Lib Dem’s will be Marching Through G̶e̶o̶r̶g̶i̶a̶ Westminster!
The land, the land,
'Twas God who made the land.
The land, the land,
The ground on which we stand.
Why should we be beggars,
With the ballot in our hand?
God gave the land to the people!
Oh way do south in the land of Ministers,
Crooked lobbyists and media spinners.
Poll away, poll away,
Poll away, poll away.
While Labour reigns,
with a Tory implosion.
Lib Dems form,
The opposition.
Poll away, poll away,
Poll away, poll away!
It’s funny because The Land is the actual official anthem for the Lib Dem’s and is sung to the tune of Marching Through Georgia, a fact I completely forgot until today.
We should bring more civil war music to British politics. I’m happy to adopt your lyrics on an official basis.
But then again .. these polls don't have the full impact of the betting scandal and a Tory MP calling his own party a "shower of sh\*t". Every time you think it can't get worse the fuckwits come out and go a step further. There is a reason why the downward slope of the Tory vote is getting steeper.
If that is a serious question, the reason is that we operate a First Past the Post system. And each person votes only for the MP in one of 650 separate consituencies.
So it matters WHERE your voters are. Let's imagine 5 Lab safe seats and 5 Conservative safe seats. Five are Lab 50% Con30% Ref 20% and the others are Con50%, Lab 30% Ref20%.
At the end of that Con and Lab have 5 seats each and Ref has 0 seats.
SNP is best example- their UK-wide% is VERY low because they only stand in Scotland- but UK-wide 5% means almost all the seats in Scotland for them.
Now, Reform is a generalised party of protest, so their votes are fairly even across GB, whereas Lib Dems are very much geographically targeted, so will get more seats on a smaller % of the vote. and Con and Lab both have historic strongholds.
501 seats is absolutely insane. Also good to see reform only getting 5.
The thing I want most is Starmers planning reforms to get through and a huge majority will enable that as the NIMBY opposition within Labour will be overcome. If that gets passed early on then it will be a successful government and a large majority should enable that. Labour will also have time to get the benefits in terms of economic growth in their term.
I still cant believe this has a chance of happening, I think Lib Dems being the opposition would be the best election outcome I could hope for but I just can't see it materialising on the night.
I'll be honest I would think the Tories will be in triple digits still, maybe up to 140-60 ish range. They are cockroaches and I think their support is being under represented before people are actually faced with voting.
The idea of the Tories being within spitting distance of the SNP in 4th place would be an absolute nut buster.
Labour would have a higher percentage of seats than Putin's United Russia has in the Duma. No rigging required, just a horribly disproportionate voting system that stops working when there are more than two parties.
It's insane how much Truss destroyed the Tories in the polls. The Tories had a pretty decent standing right before the minibudget was announced (around 28-35%), which leads to me to believe that had Sunak won on the first leadership election and proceeded to call a GE immediately, things could've been a bit different for them in the long run despite them probably going back to the opposition anyway as Labour wouldn't have lost the lead.
I remember immediately after both Truss and then Sunak became leader, lots of people said refusing the call an election immediately would result in the Tories falling further and further behind in the polls. Lots of "the best time to call one was last week, the next best time is now". Good to see those predictions held strong. I know there are lots of reasons for the Tories falling to pieces, but the refusal to call an election in a desperate hope to cling on to power when everyone could see they had nothing to offer really epitomises the contemporary Tory party for me. They are obsessed with power, and their obsession has doomed them. Time has finally run out, and we're all gleefully here to witness their destruction.
Suank's only chance was to call an election straight away before anyone found out how shit he is. Even if he'd beaten Truss, he would have tanked the Tories' polling just through being generally useless. He would definitely have faced a leadership challenge and now we'd probably be looking at a general election with Truss as PM, which is possibly the only way the Tories might lose this election any harder than they are going to.
Can't really see it. You would think the public would be a bit fed up of the Conservative calling an election every 2 years because they rebelled against their leader.
Truss gets quite right recency bias but it was Cameron who really did all of this. Without austerity you likely don’t get Brexit (which he allowed) and then you don’t get Johnson probably and Truss for sure.
Truss was just the peak of a ride that Cameron pressed start on 14 years ago, he should never be allowed to write a successful prologue to his political story. He’s the man that set all of this in motion.
Nobody is considering how racist a huge part of the electorate are. A distrust of Indians in the older generation is part of the poll slump. Only anecdotal of course but I've heard these thoughts from plenty of people.
It's already long since dropped off the BBC news homepage, and there's more chance of pigs flying than any right wing newspapers covering it.
The only people who will pay attention to it are people who are already unlikely to be voting Tory.
God, just imagine the media frenzy if this was a Labour scandal though. It'd be getting hammered home endlessly.
Truss should have called an election before her budget they might have stood a chance then. But not now. They shot themselves in both feet and wonder where it all went wrong
An insane statistic here in the [Political Party Trust](https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-21-24-june-2024/) question.
The Conservatives are trusted more than Reform on every issue, every single one. Most by a factor of 2-3, the only issues that are close are Immigration and Stop the Boats, but the Tories are still more trusted on them. Despite this Reform still polling higher.
If I was a Conservative looking for something to give me hope, it would be that. There are clearly a lot of people currently planning to vote Reform or saying they would vote Reform but who actually believe the Conservative party would be better at running the country. Those are the sort of voters they have to try and win over when it comes to actually voting.
> If I was a Conservative looking for something to give me hope, it would be that. There are clearly a lot of people currently planning to vote Reform or saying they would vote Reform but who actually believe the Conservative party would be better at running the country.
Though they face the problem that neither of them are in contention to run the country so a vote for either is in a sense a protest against the inevitable Labour government and some people may prefer Reform as a protest vote even if they’d prefer Conservatives to run the country.
This is what I think will really happen on the whole, these are people who would generally support the Conservatives but right now actively want to vote against them.
But I do think there might be some room for individual candidates campaigning as a "Local Conservative" and well liked in the community who might otherwise lose their seats. If they can distance themselves from the current government but convince people that it's worth keeping them for the next iteration of the party.
> There are clearly a lot of people currently planning to vote Reform or saying they would vote Reform but who actually believe the Conservative party would be better at running the country.
I would interpret those as Labour voters, not Reform ones.
I don’t think there’s shy Tories but I do think there’s lazy Labourites. Say they’ll vote Labour but just not turn up on the day because they’re not that enthusiastic and they think it’s a done deal
Think this is before Ukraine comments from farage. Be interesting to see if that causes any movement. 10 days to go and no movement, if other polls show similar stability then all the Tories can hope for is the polls are very wrong or Starmer murders someone live on television.
**Edit**
Read the dates wrong, this does cover the Ukraine comments and no movement to or away for reform.
> he's teflon with his core support
His core support appears to be 1 in every 5 people now.
Although as has been said, a lot of it is just to literally punish the Tories as much as possible for being so shit, people know they're going to lose anyway and with FPTP aside from the hilarity of the numbers there isn't really much functional difference between a party having a majority of 50 or 250, they'll still pass everything anyway.
Many reform supporters are simply concerned by the record high immigration of recent years. *3.5 million* people migrated to the UK over the last three years. That isn’t without impact. The numbers are unprecedented, and the Tories promised to lower it.
I don’t think it’s stupid to have concerns about this, it’s a simplistic way of not engaging with their concerns.
We’ve heard the same things about migration for decades. They won’t be happy even if immigration returns to pre-Brexit levels.
I’m all for Labour coming it an introducing reforms on the logic of if they don’t the far-right will, but from what I can see the average Reform voter doesn’t actually want reform, they want immigration to stop. That would cripple the UK like just about everything they seem to have wanted recently
It the same kind of voter who elects people like Marjorie Trailer Park Green over in the US. They've settled on politics as a way to punish others rather than improve lives, so they'll vote for people who'll tickle their ears because they feel left behind and would rather drag everyone else down than catch up.
Perhaps, but a lot of reform voters know Farage is a slime ball but feel it the only way to vote against mass immigration.
3.5 million people migrated to the UK in the last three years alone. Net migration of near two million. Completely unprecedented. None of the other main parties want to talk about that. The Tories only want to misdirect towards the 50,000 annual illegal migrants - relatively very small compared to legal migration.
It's because Farage hasn't said anything nearly as bad as this sub makes out.
If you read his reasoning **in full** (and are also geopolitically aware enough to interpret it correctly), he hasn't actually said anything outrageous.
For the record, I personally disagree with Farage, but it is an entirely reasonable POV, and not Putin shilling at all.
I really wonder if the voting intentions for Reform will translate on polling day. Reform have no chance of winning more than a handful of seats. Their leader is a Putin fanboy whose main schtick to date has been complaining about foreigners. Their candidates include some shall we say highly unsavoury individuals. The whole thing is basically Farage's ego. Are they really going to get 19%?
But many people's goal by voting reform is to show a middle finger to the system and express anger, not necessarily a practical goal around seats - especially with the election already decided in the mind of most
From the same con artist as well.
Farage gave more energy to "wah, I want a rich guy bank account" than he ever has to trying to improve anyone's life.
The tories have been gifting it to him, day after day. The youth policy they effectively decided to communicate is to introduce conscription and imply they'd really like to fling them under Russian tanks, while promising (through past inaction) they'll import enough migrants not to care. This week, the main effect of the press about Farage's comments is suggesting that if you're insufficiently gung ho, you must be a Russian stooge. Tory election strategy isn't just bad, it's suicidal. Raising the spectre of sending your children off to die in a foreign war is not going to win you votes.
We'll see on the day, but I suspect the polls are now overstating the tories. Voters are usually more likely to say to a pollster "of course I support the cause" but vote for the safer option that's less likely to send people to die, than the other way around.
> imply they'd really like to fling them under Russian tanks, while promising (through past inaction) they'll import enough migrants not to care
Vote for us. We'll send you off to war, but give anyone who rocks up on a boat a free house & an easy ticket for life.
No, you still won't be able to afford a house when you return. Oh and we'll be harvesting your organs for pensioners.
People aren't voting Reform to win seats.
It's a 'fuck the Tories' vote from people who have been betrayed election after election.
The seats campaign will begin for 2029.
Looks like it. Though I’m not looking forward to his Smugness actually finally winning a seat. Can the BBC find room to put him on Question time more often when he actually is in Parliament , I wonder.,
[Farage is **by far** the most popular British politician at the moment](https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/politicians-political-figures/all), and also the most well-known (tied only with Boris).
But according to the top-shelf political analysts on this sub, it's simply because people are easily duped by low-hanging-fruit, divisive rhetoric.
...Or maybe there's a little more to it? Just maybe it's not the kids who are wrong?
> ...Or maybe there's a little more to it? Just maybe it's not the kids who are wrong?
Nah, it's far easier for people to just insult the voting public & call them idiots. Totally works, every single time & doesn't lead to... exactly what they apparently want to stop
>But according to the top-shelf political analysts on this sub, it's simply because people are easily duped by low-hanging-fruit, divisive rhetoric.
Yes.
>Just maybe it's not the kids who are wrong?
People supporting a position doesn't make it right. It just means you could convince them to give you the power to do it.
If immigration is number one on your priorities reform is the only party to vote for.
All of the others are a vote for the whatever is going on right now to continue.
Hoping Labour takes notes from the danish left and hoovers up that reform vote by actually putting in policies that satisfy people’s demands to reduce / improve immigration.
If immigration is number one on someone's list, above health, the cost of living, the economy & they think Reform are going to make a meaningful difference, they need a reality check.
This is the man who sold us the prize turd that is Brexit, who fanboys Putin & Trump & basically exists to fuel his own ego.
Erm yeah ,try the following:
Housing (buying and renting, notably in major cities), pollution (notably NO2), the simple numbers of people on public transport and roads, NHS (dependants), schools (dependants). Not to mention the issues of ghettoisation, not assimilating, and frankly shunning culture of the country.
> Immigration and housing is directly linked and if you are renting the 700,000 annual figure is pushing that cost up
Yes. It blows my mind that people will argue that this isn't the case
"Just build more houses" - Yes, absolutely. But you try dealing with the rampant NIMBY'ism that exists in this country & is supported by every single MP who wants to get re-elected. Even if we did, we literally couldn't build enough houses fast enough to cover it.
I live in Northern Ireland where the number of immigrants is relatively low. Rents have sky rocketed in recent years, mainly due to greedy landlords & a lack of social housing. We also have the worst NHS experience in the UK (thanks mainly to Tory underfunding) & the price of food is mad (due to global issues & profiteering supermarkets). Virtually none of it is linked to immigration. I'm not saying immigration isn't an issue. However it's an issue seized upon by govts trying to divert from their incompetency & charlatans with big egos who deliver disaster & then come back to sell it all over again.
Great and my circumstances mean that I prioritise making sure that the incoming Labour government knows that a substantial chunk of the country doesn’t want all immigration treated as equal and we need to be more selective in who we let in.
Other things are an issue as well but I’m in a solid Labour area and would be voting for them if it mattered at all.
I’ll vote for the protest party that most closely aligns with my views.
If it goes like Brexit, they'll go through with the 'thing' but in a way that only hurts certain already-vulnerable groups that the establishment is ok with hurting, and then use the presence of the rest of the shitty policy package as justification for adding more shit on top. Will of the people and all that...
Trump is just as crazy as was elected US president. Never underestimate the voting power of angry people who feel their issues are being ignored. Combined with a charismatic leader (charismatic to that group at least) and they can become a pretty motivated voting block. I don't expect them to beat the Tories on polling day, but reckon they'll be somewhere in the 15-20% range.
You mean the actual scrutiny that has been avoided previously because they weren’t taken seriously but were contrarian click bait for the media until now?
Intriguing. All odds from Bet365. Under 99.5 seats for the Tories is now 1/2, with 50 to 99 seats now the 10/11 favourite. The football ain't coming home but less than 100 seats looks like it is. These cowards need to stick up a match bet. Something like Lib Dems +20 seats vs the Tories 10/11 each side feels a very fair bet.
Tories did the worse to themselves, their talking points moved to right while their policies moved to left. They aliniated both sides of the aisle. I wonder if they will be able to recover in 10 years.
Be funny if a lot of these Labourites see these kinds of figures and think that Labour have got it in the bag; so then go off an vote for a dipshit 3rd party like LD or GR causing an overinflated Labour figure and resulting in a dung parliament :D
Snapshot of _Labour leads Reform by 23%. Joint-highest Reform %. Joint-lowest Conservative %. 🇬🇧 Westminster VI (21-24 June): Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1) Changes +/- 19-20 June_ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1805269652861231157) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1805269652861231157/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1805269652861231157) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1805269652861231157) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Even that opening sentence, ‘Labour leads *Reform*’ is absolutely staggering to read.
The Lib Dems had a very small lead in the polls right after the first 2010 debate over the Tories but lost it pretty quickly.
Imagine how different things would be if the Lib Dems had won 2010...
Yeah I think Tories will lead Reform by 5 or 6 points on the day
I do wonder how much it'll carry over, the Tories offer nothing to anyone and have essentially capitulated with their rhetoric about preventing a supermajority, if you're voting regarding immigration, you'll stick with reform.
Tories will get a ton of votes from pensioners by committing to abolish their own freezing of tax thresholds
After the Tories are found to be betting on the election my guess is they will be 4th or 5th
with all the shit the tories have gotten away with over the years? the betting thing is nothing.
Seemed like they could get away with anything back in 2019, now we know that's not true. All the negative stories have sunk them and right before an election they get hit with another scandal? It's a disaster (if you're a Tory).
I agree, many torys will go back to cons cos they are so terrified of labour.
labour are winning regardless, why would i vote for a party who spent the last 3 years doing the absolute opposite of what they said they would do.
I don't understand how Reform are in that position though. I got my local candidate's flyer in the post today. No details on policy whatsoever. Just a checklist: - Bring back freedom (whatever that means) - Net Zero Migration (details ommited) - New NHS model (ahem *privatised*, but we don't want to say that) - I live locally. - Being back freedom (yes, again) There were a few other similarly inane points, but that was literally the flyer. Who is reading that garbage and saying *"Yes, this seems like well thought out, workable plan"*?
Mine said stop the boats on as well, but actually nothing of substance, it’s all nonsense.
>New NHS model (ahem privatised, but we don't want to say that) "Nige says it how it is. He's brave. If he wanted to privatise the NHS, he'd just come out and say it. Just more MSM nonsense. " - From a literal real-life conversation I had today.
I know someone who said "Farage wouldn't be soft on Russia". They're so far removed from the nitty gritty, people can project whatever they like onto them.
I am still waiting for the NHS to be privatised, been told it would be for the past 10 years.
People who argue with feelings but pretend to argue with facts.
What, you have something against freedom?
Let me explain: Mass Immigration.
I think a lot of reform voters just want to punish the Tories. The biggest one is on immigration. Every Tory PM in the last 14 years ran on "controlling our borders" and now migration is at a record high. Those that feel strongly on that issue are rightly angry at the Tories for all the lying and just want to see them fail.
> I don't understand how Reform are in that position though. The country is full of scam artist politicians and corrupt media owners pumping out lies for their own benefit and a large proportion of the population gullible enough to believe it. There's not much more to it than that.
From a yank, happy independence day on the 4th of July.
Holy shit. I never even considered this. I'll be blasting out Bill Pullmans speach as I (hopefully) watch the Tory shitters get put in the bin.
Without an exclamation mark last week.
CON 38 LAB 501 LIB 60 Reform 5 Green 2 SNP 21 PlaidC 4
Please, let's see this happen. Lib Dems as the official opposition whilst Labour try to find enough space in the government benches for everyone to sit.
It doesn't work like that. Think there are only ~250 seats each side of the commons, and the rule is past a certain number of MP's (i.e. when it's impossible for the none government to fill it), some of the government side will sit on part of the opposition benches when the house is full.
So at 501 seats they fill both sides and have a fold out chair for Ed Milliband?
Not far from it. They'll have them crowding in the aisles at that point. In reality, it's quite rare for the HoC to be that full.
They'd do it as a flex. The tories can sit on the floor.
They've spent the last 14 years shitting all over the floor, so I guess that's some justice.
Labour being the year 6s sitting on the bench while the tories are on the floor cross legged
Generally, the opening of Parliament, so this time it will be an absolute mess. Also any important votes, the 1st budget will probably be a key one to get through
Only really recall seeing it during the Brexit vote and when BoJo called an early election.
Post-leader Miliband would definitely do this for the memes.
That sounds like a recipe for chaos
Poor Ed. Why's he getting the camping chair?
He should sit there with a bacon sandwich
That's just mean.
And a little table for his bacon sandwich, the man deserves it
Should this happen, i suggest the real opposition will be the left of the Labour Party.
Whig Supremacy time; the official opposition is such a non-entity that MPs of the party technically in power fracture into factions within factions.
Googling Whig Supremacy time 🤭
100% this. I've been saying this for months when people fret about such a massive majority being "Dangerous". Yes, such a massive majority for the Tories, or Reform WOULD be dangerous, because they are intolerant, dangerous people. A massive majority for a moderate party with a left leaning faction is not "Dangerous" in any way at all. *YOU* personally might not like some of the things that might get passed. But having unfettered power to fix some of the shit that's been broken and maybe level the playing field a little bit with regards to inequality is not "dangerous". It *would* be dangerous if an ideologically intolerant party/leader got in, because thats when things like concentration camps, genocides, and hollocausts happen. Which is why PR is still an important thing to push for. But pretending Labour having a large majority is "Dangerous" when being led by a literal human rights lawyer who is borderline obsessed with lowering inequality is just ridiculous.
I don’t even think Labour wants lib dem as the opposition. They will lobby to ensure the tories become the main opposition
Do you mind explaining why that would be? Presumably it's so they (Labour) can keep bringing up the Tories failures to look good but that's just a guess.
That is why! They want to bring the tories up so they can look good.
That's fine for the first year but Lib Dem opposition is better for Labour and the country over the course of the five years. PMQs would be a fair bit more constructive instead of it being silly culture war non-issues that are likely to be the big dumb important topic of the day in the conservative media. However I am receptive to the argument that Tories at about 100 or so is better for Labour because they'd be strong enough to not completely fold to Farage and thus perpetuate the Tory civil war.
I admire your optimism, but I'd be very surprised if parliamentary culture changed, they're still all largely from the same schools.
Davey's lib Dems are a very different style of party to any Tory party in recent years. There's good reason to suspect PMQs would be different with him as LOTO compared to whoever replaced Sunak.
I think that Ed Davey would be very different in his approach compared to, say, Kemi Badenoch.
I more mean jeering, making points solely for the Facebook clip, not attending any sessions which don't generate publicity, stupid gotchas will all still be present. I would expect it to turn into some well oiled ancient greek debating society.
Yeah, but we'd have 100% less stupid culture war bullshit like who is using what toilet.
Thanks for confirming :)
I think it’s just the government that have to sit to the right of the speaker. MPs can technically sit wherever they want
Inject this into my veins please.
100% LIB 60 CON 38 I **need** this to happen
Between 10pm and 6am you’d have to wait an average of 12.5 minutes between each Tory win announcement. But only 0.9mins between Labour wins. They’d have time to go in-depth on every single Tory win. We need a bingo card; I predict “Of course, it’s a very difficult night for us, but…” will make a lot of appearances.
I’ve a [bingo card](https://imgur.com/a/NdZoTOR) of my own if you care to play along
Please post this on election night, this is so good.
Thanks lmao, will do
Tee please post it with randomised variants so we can actually play bingo 😁
Not sure how I’d do that haha, took an awfully long time to get all the images and text lined up for this one so reshuffling would be quite a process. Could simplify it for that purpose I suppose
Saved for the night, thank you.
Amazing, but I would suggest adding a 'Mogg Clogged' tile
I particularly like how in the '130 record defeat' box, the conservative oak tree looks like a mushroom cloud.
"The people have spoken and I'd like to congratulate Lord Buckethead on his exemplary campaign."
There's a drinking game somewhere in this. The difficult bit is how to engineer it so you don't die.
I will not stop partying all weekend if these results are announced in the exit poll
Is it possible to die of laughter? Asking for a friend…
If the result is anywhere close to this and the Tories start moaning about representation, interviewers need to immediately start quoting all their disingenuous nonsense about how FPTP is the best system because it produces strong governments.
But what about Starmer's supermajority!?
What's a step above super-majority? Starmer's approaching Sadam level results here.
It's fucking stupid because a supermajority isn't even a thing in UK politics. It's only in places like the US where they have a filibuster.
Yeah, it doesn't make sense in this country. In countries with a written constitution, "supermajority" has a concrete meaning whereby governing parties can amend the constitution without calling a referendum. But in the UK, any change to the law, no matter how profound or drastic, simply requires a majority vote in the House of Commons. Sure, the Lords might throw the odd bill back and the King could refuse to sign off on something, but both institutions could be swept away by a majority vote in the Commons. Realistically, the only power that could stand in the way of a cohesive and determined majority government with no respect for tradition or democratic norms is the military.
We did have a law requiring it between 2011 and 2022, and is still required in Scotland and Welsh parliaments.
Isn't it just a replacement word for having such a majority he won't have to pander to fringe MPs or groups to get policy through. You only need 50%+1 MPs to have complete control of the Commons but if you're 75% of the commons you can tell a 3rd of your MPs to jog on when they don't like something without it affecting the results.
> What's a step above super-majority? Mega-majority, then hyper-majority I suppose?
Regardless of politics. It's a really trashy electoral system where you can get 40% of the vote and 500 seats and 20% of the vote and 5 seats.
Yep..... I do worry a tad though about alternatives that give very right wing parties a voice in government, but perhaps (he says grudgingly) that's democracy
What do you thinks been happening the last 5-6 years? The right wing have been given the keys, FPTP is no longer able to claim to protect against extreme governments (how else can you describe the Torys as they are now) or hung parliaments or coalitions, it's literally useless and always has been.
Just ban parties that don't share the same views as you and then people can vote for the ones permitted.
Always has been a trash system. You can blame the Parliamentary Labour Party for it being that way. Thankfully Labour *members* support electoral reform.
If this result holds, Lib Dem’s will be Marching Through G̶e̶o̶r̶g̶i̶a̶ Westminster! The land, the land, 'Twas God who made the land. The land, the land, The ground on which we stand. Why should we be beggars, With the ballot in our hand? God gave the land to the people!
Oh way do south in the land of Ministers, Crooked lobbyists and media spinners. Poll away, poll away, Poll away, poll away. While Labour reigns, with a Tory implosion. Lib Dems form, The opposition. Poll away, poll away, Poll away, poll away!
It’s funny because The Land is the actual official anthem for the Lib Dem’s and is sung to the tune of Marching Through Georgia, a fact I completely forgot until today. We should bring more civil war music to British politics. I’m happy to adopt your lyrics on an official basis.
Cool to know. Marching Through Georgia is an absolute banger
Diss tracks from the 1860’s just hit different
Will not happen surely…. But fuck I have hopes
But then again .. these polls don't have the full impact of the betting scandal and a Tory MP calling his own party a "shower of sh\*t". Every time you think it can't get worse the fuckwits come out and go a step further. There is a reason why the downward slope of the Tory vote is getting steeper.
At this point I feel those who still wanna vote Tory are gonna do it no matter what.. what the fuck do they still have going for them?
Why does reform get less MPs than the conservatives with a higher percentage of the vote?
If that is a serious question, the reason is that we operate a First Past the Post system. And each person votes only for the MP in one of 650 separate consituencies. So it matters WHERE your voters are. Let's imagine 5 Lab safe seats and 5 Conservative safe seats. Five are Lab 50% Con30% Ref 20% and the others are Con50%, Lab 30% Ref20%. At the end of that Con and Lab have 5 seats each and Ref has 0 seats. SNP is best example- their UK-wide% is VERY low because they only stand in Scotland- but UK-wide 5% means almost all the seats in Scotland for them. Now, Reform is a generalised party of protest, so their votes are fairly even across GB, whereas Lib Dems are very much geographically targeted, so will get more seats on a smaller % of the vote. and Con and Lab both have historic strongholds.
i need a cigarette after reading this
Do you guys hear that? It’s the Overton window getting thrown leftwards. Time to start writing to your ex-progressive MPs.
501 seats is absolutely insane. Also good to see reform only getting 5. The thing I want most is Starmers planning reforms to get through and a huge majority will enable that as the NIMBY opposition within Labour will be overcome. If that gets passed early on then it will be a successful government and a large majority should enable that. Labour will also have time to get the benefits in terms of economic growth in their term.
5 seats and around 6 million votes for Reform will be a very successful election for them. I imagine they will have a lot of 2nd places too.
Still so many SNP seats- I was hoping they’d be back down to single digits
I still cant believe this has a chance of happening, I think Lib Dems being the opposition would be the best election outcome I could hope for but I just can't see it materialising on the night. I'll be honest I would think the Tories will be in triple digits still, maybe up to 140-60 ish range. They are cockroaches and I think their support is being under represented before people are actually faced with voting. The idea of the Tories being within spitting distance of the SNP in 4th place would be an absolute nut buster.
It's insane we've reached a point that the tories getting 150 seats would be a good result for them.
I predict a riot... Calling for proportional representation.
Hopefully 🤞🏽
Labour would have a higher percentage of seats than Putin's United Russia has in the Duma. No rigging required, just a horribly disproportionate voting system that stops working when there are more than two parties.
If this gets announced at the exit poll I’m cracking open the single malt and going on a 3 day bender *chefs kiss*
Pump that shit straight into my veins 💉
It's insane how much Truss destroyed the Tories in the polls. The Tories had a pretty decent standing right before the minibudget was announced (around 28-35%), which leads to me to believe that had Sunak won on the first leadership election and proceeded to call a GE immediately, things could've been a bit different for them in the long run despite them probably going back to the opposition anyway as Labour wouldn't have lost the lead.
I remember immediately after both Truss and then Sunak became leader, lots of people said refusing the call an election immediately would result in the Tories falling further and further behind in the polls. Lots of "the best time to call one was last week, the next best time is now". Good to see those predictions held strong. I know there are lots of reasons for the Tories falling to pieces, but the refusal to call an election in a desperate hope to cling on to power when everyone could see they had nothing to offer really epitomises the contemporary Tory party for me. They are obsessed with power, and their obsession has doomed them. Time has finally run out, and we're all gleefully here to witness their destruction.
Truly, the more the Tories tighten their grip, the more constituencies will fall through. \[With apologies to Princess Leia\].
Suank's only chance was to call an election straight away before anyone found out how shit he is. Even if he'd beaten Truss, he would have tanked the Tories' polling just through being generally useless. He would definitely have faced a leadership challenge and now we'd probably be looking at a general election with Truss as PM, which is possibly the only way the Tories might lose this election any harder than they are going to.
After that, they never pushed above 30%, even when Rishi the dishy one took over.
That’s the issue see, turns out Rish had no dish.
Short men with Napoleon syndrome are so hot
Can't really see it. You would think the public would be a bit fed up of the Conservative calling an election every 2 years because they rebelled against their leader.
I think you're completely underestimating how unappetising conservatives find Rishi.
The Tories have lost a third of their support in the last six months alone. Rishi has been catastrophic for them too.
Truss gets quite right recency bias but it was Cameron who really did all of this. Without austerity you likely don’t get Brexit (which he allowed) and then you don’t get Johnson probably and Truss for sure. Truss was just the peak of a ride that Cameron pressed start on 14 years ago, he should never be allowed to write a successful prologue to his political story. He’s the man that set all of this in motion.
Nobody is considering how racist a huge part of the electorate are. A distrust of Indians in the older generation is part of the poll slump. Only anecdotal of course but I've heard these thoughts from plenty of people.
Polling has likely settled. Unless gamble-gate becomes a much bigger story we can likely expect Labour to be around 40% on July 4th.
It's already long since dropped off the BBC news homepage, and there's more chance of pigs flying than any right wing newspapers covering it. The only people who will pay attention to it are people who are already unlikely to be voting Tory. God, just imagine the media frenzy if this was a Labour scandal though. It'd be getting hammered home endlessly.
It's currently the third item on the BBC news page.
Probably, but how does the polling account for the shy Tories who’ll get cold feet in the polling booth and go back from Reform or Labour to the Cons?
Pollsters publish their methodologies but they do take shy Tories into account
Truss should have called an election before her budget they might have stood a chance then. But not now. They shot themselves in both feet and wonder where it all went wrong
An insane statistic here in the [Political Party Trust](https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-21-24-june-2024/) question. The Conservatives are trusted more than Reform on every issue, every single one. Most by a factor of 2-3, the only issues that are close are Immigration and Stop the Boats, but the Tories are still more trusted on them. Despite this Reform still polling higher. If I was a Conservative looking for something to give me hope, it would be that. There are clearly a lot of people currently planning to vote Reform or saying they would vote Reform but who actually believe the Conservative party would be better at running the country. Those are the sort of voters they have to try and win over when it comes to actually voting.
> If I was a Conservative looking for something to give me hope, it would be that. There are clearly a lot of people currently planning to vote Reform or saying they would vote Reform but who actually believe the Conservative party would be better at running the country. Though they face the problem that neither of them are in contention to run the country so a vote for either is in a sense a protest against the inevitable Labour government and some people may prefer Reform as a protest vote even if they’d prefer Conservatives to run the country.
This is what I think will really happen on the whole, these are people who would generally support the Conservatives but right now actively want to vote against them. But I do think there might be some room for individual candidates campaigning as a "Local Conservative" and well liked in the community who might otherwise lose their seats. If they can distance themselves from the current government but convince people that it's worth keeping them for the next iteration of the party.
> There are clearly a lot of people currently planning to vote Reform or saying they would vote Reform but who actually believe the Conservative party would be better at running the country. I would interpret those as Labour voters, not Reform ones.
Another poll that shows minimal change. The betting scandal won't move the needle and we're in a pretty fixed position.
Postal votes are also starting to arrive, so an increasing percentage of the election result has already been decided.
There is still just about enough time for a massive Jeb! landslide.
Please clap!
Some already have, I posted mine at the weekend.
The fieldwork is from 5 days ago. It might not have picked up on it yet.
They're being terrible faster than people are able to react to it!
Bear in mind polls are always reactive and thus lagging behind events by 5-7 days.
If the rest of the shit they’ve done hasn’t put you off the Tories a bit of illegal gambling isn’t going to change anything is it?
Is this real? Or is it shy Tories? I think it might be real. It's fantastic.
I don’t think there’s shy Tories but I do think there’s lazy Labourites. Say they’ll vote Labour but just not turn up on the day because they’re not that enthusiastic and they think it’s a done deal
There are definitely 100% shy Tories in this election, but polling adjustments usually does a fairly good job of taking them into account.
Think this is before Ukraine comments from farage. Be interesting to see if that causes any movement. 10 days to go and no movement, if other polls show similar stability then all the Tories can hope for is the polls are very wrong or Starmer murders someone live on television. **Edit** Read the dates wrong, this does cover the Ukraine comments and no movement to or away for reform.
If Starmer murders some on TV - we'll finally get that libdem surge but the Tories are still doomed.
Mid Starmer murders
Any chance league of gentlemen can bang a parody together before 4th July on that premise you reckon
Like Trump, he's teflon with his core support. I can't imagine it would have a serious impact.
> he's teflon with his core support His core support appears to be 1 in every 5 people now. Although as has been said, a lot of it is just to literally punish the Tories as much as possible for being so shit, people know they're going to lose anyway and with FPTP aside from the hilarity of the numbers there isn't really much functional difference between a party having a majority of 50 or 250, they'll still pass everything anyway.
Sure. Most stupid things in recent history has been done with majority public support. Never underestimate the stupidity of people in groups
Many reform supporters are simply concerned by the record high immigration of recent years. *3.5 million* people migrated to the UK over the last three years. That isn’t without impact. The numbers are unprecedented, and the Tories promised to lower it. I don’t think it’s stupid to have concerns about this, it’s a simplistic way of not engaging with their concerns.
We’ve heard the same things about migration for decades. They won’t be happy even if immigration returns to pre-Brexit levels. I’m all for Labour coming it an introducing reforms on the logic of if they don’t the far-right will, but from what I can see the average Reform voter doesn’t actually want reform, they want immigration to stop. That would cripple the UK like just about everything they seem to have wanted recently
A lot of the reform vote is also a vote against the Tories, not Reform/Farage on their own merit.
It the same kind of voter who elects people like Marjorie Trailer Park Green over in the US. They've settled on politics as a way to punish others rather than improve lives, so they'll vote for people who'll tickle their ears because they feel left behind and would rather drag everyone else down than catch up.
Perhaps, but a lot of reform voters know Farage is a slime ball but feel it the only way to vote against mass immigration. 3.5 million people migrated to the UK in the last three years alone. Net migration of near two million. Completely unprecedented. None of the other main parties want to talk about that. The Tories only want to misdirect towards the 50,000 annual illegal migrants - relatively very small compared to legal migration.
It's because Farage hasn't said anything nearly as bad as this sub makes out. If you read his reasoning **in full** (and are also geopolitically aware enough to interpret it correctly), he hasn't actually said anything outrageous. For the record, I personally disagree with Farage, but it is an entirely reasonable POV, and not Putin shilling at all.
That’s why it’s called dog whistling.
Considering I got my dates of the poll wrong that does indeed seem true going off this single poll
It’s polling over the weekend up to today, so it would reflect Ukraine comments?
Oh I am indeed wrong, saw the dates of the previous poll as the dates for this. That will teach me not to read proper. My apologies all.
I really wonder if the voting intentions for Reform will translate on polling day. Reform have no chance of winning more than a handful of seats. Their leader is a Putin fanboy whose main schtick to date has been complaining about foreigners. Their candidates include some shall we say highly unsavoury individuals. The whole thing is basically Farage's ego. Are they really going to get 19%?
But many people's goal by voting reform is to show a middle finger to the system and express anger, not necessarily a practical goal around seats - especially with the election already decided in the mind of most
I guess so. Kind of like Brexit.
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From the same con artist as well. Farage gave more energy to "wah, I want a rich guy bank account" than he ever has to trying to improve anyone's life.
The tories have been gifting it to him, day after day. The youth policy they effectively decided to communicate is to introduce conscription and imply they'd really like to fling them under Russian tanks, while promising (through past inaction) they'll import enough migrants not to care. This week, the main effect of the press about Farage's comments is suggesting that if you're insufficiently gung ho, you must be a Russian stooge. Tory election strategy isn't just bad, it's suicidal. Raising the spectre of sending your children off to die in a foreign war is not going to win you votes. We'll see on the day, but I suspect the polls are now overstating the tories. Voters are usually more likely to say to a pollster "of course I support the cause" but vote for the safer option that's less likely to send people to die, than the other way around.
> imply they'd really like to fling them under Russian tanks, while promising (through past inaction) they'll import enough migrants not to care Vote for us. We'll send you off to war, but give anyone who rocks up on a boat a free house & an easy ticket for life. No, you still won't be able to afford a house when you return. Oh and we'll be harvesting your organs for pensioners.
People aren't voting Reform to win seats. It's a 'fuck the Tories' vote from people who have been betrayed election after election. The seats campaign will begin for 2029.
Looks like it. Though I’m not looking forward to his Smugness actually finally winning a seat. Can the BBC find room to put him on Question time more often when he actually is in Parliament , I wonder.,
One man’s ego gets 19% of votes is pretty staggering in anyone’s books!
ReformUK’s success can in large part be contributed to the unpopularity of The Conservative Party.
Don’t underestimate the cult of personality that Farage projects, though.
Maybe he’s just popular?
[Farage is **by far** the most popular British politician at the moment](https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/politicians-political-figures/all), and also the most well-known (tied only with Boris). But according to the top-shelf political analysts on this sub, it's simply because people are easily duped by low-hanging-fruit, divisive rhetoric. ...Or maybe there's a little more to it? Just maybe it's not the kids who are wrong?
> ...Or maybe there's a little more to it? Just maybe it's not the kids who are wrong? Nah, it's far easier for people to just insult the voting public & call them idiots. Totally works, every single time & doesn't lead to... exactly what they apparently want to stop
>But according to the top-shelf political analysts on this sub, it's simply because people are easily duped by low-hanging-fruit, divisive rhetoric. Yes. >Just maybe it's not the kids who are wrong? People supporting a position doesn't make it right. It just means you could convince them to give you the power to do it.
If immigration is number one on your priorities reform is the only party to vote for. All of the others are a vote for the whatever is going on right now to continue. Hoping Labour takes notes from the danish left and hoovers up that reform vote by actually putting in policies that satisfy people’s demands to reduce / improve immigration.
If immigration is number one on someone's list, above health, the cost of living, the economy & they think Reform are going to make a meaningful difference, they need a reality check. This is the man who sold us the prize turd that is Brexit, who fanboys Putin & Trump & basically exists to fuel his own ego.
Erm yeah ,try the following: Housing (buying and renting, notably in major cities), pollution (notably NO2), the simple numbers of people on public transport and roads, NHS (dependants), schools (dependants). Not to mention the issues of ghettoisation, not assimilating, and frankly shunning culture of the country.
Immigration and housing is directly linked and if you are renting the 700,000 annual figure is pushing that cost up
> Immigration and housing is directly linked and if you are renting the 700,000 annual figure is pushing that cost up Yes. It blows my mind that people will argue that this isn't the case "Just build more houses" - Yes, absolutely. But you try dealing with the rampant NIMBY'ism that exists in this country & is supported by every single MP who wants to get re-elected. Even if we did, we literally couldn't build enough houses fast enough to cover it.
I live in Northern Ireland where the number of immigrants is relatively low. Rents have sky rocketed in recent years, mainly due to greedy landlords & a lack of social housing. We also have the worst NHS experience in the UK (thanks mainly to Tory underfunding) & the price of food is mad (due to global issues & profiteering supermarkets). Virtually none of it is linked to immigration. I'm not saying immigration isn't an issue. However it's an issue seized upon by govts trying to divert from their incompetency & charlatans with big egos who deliver disaster & then come back to sell it all over again.
Great and my circumstances mean that I prioritise making sure that the incoming Labour government knows that a substantial chunk of the country doesn’t want all immigration treated as equal and we need to be more selective in who we let in. Other things are an issue as well but I’m in a solid Labour area and would be voting for them if it mattered at all. I’ll vote for the protest party that most closely aligns with my views.
If it goes like Brexit, they'll go through with the 'thing' but in a way that only hurts certain already-vulnerable groups that the establishment is ok with hurting, and then use the presence of the rest of the shitty policy package as justification for adding more shit on top. Will of the people and all that...
Trump is just as crazy as was elected US president. Never underestimate the voting power of angry people who feel their issues are being ignored. Combined with a charismatic leader (charismatic to that group at least) and they can become a pretty motivated voting block. I don't expect them to beat the Tories on polling day, but reckon they'll be somewhere in the 15-20% range.
Aww, are the hitpieces not working? Diddums.
Farage status: Unbarraged
You mean the actual scrutiny that has been avoided previously because they weren’t taken seriously but were contrarian click bait for the media until now?
Intriguing. All odds from Bet365. Under 99.5 seats for the Tories is now 1/2, with 50 to 99 seats now the 10/11 favourite. The football ain't coming home but less than 100 seats looks like it is. These cowards need to stick up a match bet. Something like Lib Dems +20 seats vs the Tories 10/11 each side feels a very fair bet.
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>What is wrong with people? Is it just brain rot and racism? No, Labour has much more support than people who like drinking the tears of white people.
[Excuse me..?](https://gifdb.com/images/high/white-guy-shocked-meme-blinking-6d4iqbfsfjd4y6rb.gif)
How realistic is this poll? I guess I’m asking how good is this pollsters track record?
Tories did the worse to themselves, their talking points moved to right while their policies moved to left. They aliniated both sides of the aisle. I wonder if they will be able to recover in 10 years.
Be funny if a lot of these Labourites see these kinds of figures and think that Labour have got it in the bag; so then go off an vote for a dipshit 3rd party like LD or GR causing an overinflated Labour figure and resulting in a dung parliament :D