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I don't think it will happen until Ukraine decides to push the Kherson region, which i fully believe. It is the hardest to supply if they lose the bridges. It will happen when it is strategically the most important.
If they did it now, they would have time to set up efficient alternate routes. As of now they kinda do, but they also don't. It would take a while to get re situated. As soon as they push that region towards Crimea, Crimea will have no way to supply itself.
They are setting up alternative routes for years now. The strategic importance of this bridge was at its maximum two years ago and unless Ukraine is cutting the land bridge it wont ever reach that importance again.
Their nuclear arsenal is still what seems to keep them significant regardless of losses. I'm concerned that the country with the largest stockpile of WMDs gets pushed farther into a corner with each loss. They have less to lose, literally, as well. I know it's mostly just bluffing/posturing, but I feel like Putin is deranged enough to do anything.
I hate to say it but I'm starting to think that Putin would rather launch the missiles than ever accept defeat and pull out entirely, which anything less than that probably won't be acceptable to Zelensky('s people)... Please tell me I'm wrong though, I'd love to be proven wrong on that one!!
As a country they did not lose anything yet.
Should they decide to use nuclear weapons they will lose everything, including their lives, all of them.
While putin may wish to do it, other people in the chain of command may cherish their and their families lives more than their allegiance to putin.
I am not concerned at all about nuclear weapons being used, they were never meant to anyway, they are a deterrent that ensures that wars on 🌎 will be fought with conventional weapons.
When did they reach 500,000? End of May? 40,000 since the end of May! 200,000 b4 the end of Nov? 750,000 by Christmas? This is unsustainable. Putz needs help to the River Styx.
It was a little earlier than the end of May when the 500,000th Russian was eliminated.
Tomorrow will be very close to reaching 35,000 for June.
This would be the largest month ever except May was so much better than everything
Russian artillerycraft fucked itself.
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The general feedback loop is ukraine getting better longer range artillery while russia uses older and shorter range stuff, making counterbattery fire effective for Ukraine.
How many tanks do they possibly have left? I thought I heard at the beginning they were supposed to have something like 10,500 but a good chunk were believed to be junk / parts / inoperable…
Euromaidan's graphic the other day said Russia's lost about 56% of their total pre-war stockpiles of artillery, tanks, and APVs. I don't recall the exact number for each category, but it was in that vicinity. That also doesn't have any way of judging how many 'stores' vehicles have already been stripped for parts or are unrecoverable, and of course they'll have taken the best-condition stuff first, so what's left is likely worse and worse. So Russia's entire supply now is under 45% of where they started, and picked over. At a rate of 40 artillery losses a day, that looks like less than four months before Moscow has to start rationing their artillery pieces.
"At a rate of 40 artillery losses a day, that looks like less than four months before Moscow has to start rationing their artillery pieces."
Considering barrel wearouts etc. They have probably been rationing replacements for some time already. For most of 2022 The Russians were shooting 60,000 rounds per day. At 5000 rounds per barrel expected life ,that comes to 12 barrel equivalents per day, or for nine months 3240 barrels needing replacement. They had about 10,000 pieces to start including what was in storage with 4000 of the total SPGs, So they must be well into what they have bought from Iran and North Korea.
Well they have already played the ‘can we have peace where the lines are now’ card, so things are looking up. No ruZZia, fuck off back to your own country if you want peace.
What kind of peace plan would Russia possibly offer anyway? Even if they offered to return to the 2020 de facto borders, with them keeping Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea, that would still be unacceptable to Ukraine. Russia having Crimea means Russia being able to attack Ukrainian shipping, so that's a no-go, and they won't give up on that.
Any possible peace plan other than total military victory for Ukraine would require Ukraine to concede territory, and Ukraine is not giving any signs of willingness to do that. Even if Ukraine does take back control over its territory by force of arms, Putin would rather stay sanctioned forever than sign any peace plan conceding Ukraine's territorial integrity and admitting he was wrong to invade, so I expect a permanently militarized border afterward.
The rate coming from the stockpile keeps slowing, so the end of the stockpile keeps getting further away. If the maximum tanks 02/2022 was 10,500 - 3,400 active, there is a stockpile of 7,100. Reactivating at 120 a month would take 5 years.
The first 2.5 years, activating around 3,600 tanks, starting with a fleet of 3,400, and gaining around 200 tanks from other countries, making 150 new, that's 7,350 tanks, or 8 tanks per day.
So the next 2.5 years, if they double their new production to 10 a month, activate 120 a month, Ukraine will face a maximum of 130 tanks a month, 4 a day, unless Russia pauses to build up force. 4-5 is close to their confirmed losses per day for last 3 months.
If activation rates slows to 0 over 2.5 years, Ukraine will face less and less tanks, or you will see longer and longer pauses between offensives.
People were talking about russia running out of stuff since... well, a couple weeks after the war started basically.
People need to stop this. Its harmful to Ukraine. Ukraine needs the weapons to beat Russia even if Russia doesnt "run out" of its basic systems.
We dont know the actual russian losses. These number are claims by Ukraine.
We dont know the actual pre war stock.
We dont know the actual production.
We dont know how much russia can buy.
We cant rely on russia running out on anything. It may take years and years before that happens.
There's truth to your claim that declaring or even speculating in the imminent collapse of the Russian war effort can be harmfull to Ukraine as it risks leading to disappointment and exhaustion and worse yet, to a lack of the required support from other countries.
However, the opposite approach, that Russias resources are endless, is even more dangerous as it leads many people to believe that Ukraine is a lost cause. That was the prevalent oppinion back in february 22 and it resulted in a complete lack of adequate western backing which still haunts Ukraine.
Selling the message that this is a war that Ukraine can and must win but that it might continue to be an up hill struggle for many years to come, is a difficult task - especially in the comfortable west. I think therefore that it's right to rejoice in catastrophic russian losses while acknowledging that the war wont be won just because Russia runs out of this or that. There can be a long way to go anyway but the light at the end of the tunnel can actually be seen now. We just need to support Ukraine and in an emphatic way which most countries unfortunally don't and therefore it's not to late for Ukraine to lose, russian tanks or no russian tanks.
I always wonder how accurate the larger numbers are.
Warships, aircraft sure, those are very accurate, easy to identify. Most likely helicopters are 99-100% valid too. Tanks are in the ballpark.
But the APVs and the personnel, standard artillery e.g. mortars...?
EDIT: Thanks, could just answer or link something instead of downvoting.
Way more accurate than you would think considering how others would take the opportunity to use it for propaganda purposes. It looks like a genuine attempt at recording, with double counting and false recollections that come with how the human mind works.
Artillery and personnel are going to be hard, because there's so much of it, and there's so little left of it when artillery has blown it up.
Yes, and therefore it has been a great relief to see bukhankas, golf carts, garden sheds etc which should convince you that russian losses has been enormous and hurting them badly whether the true numbers are thousands more or less than the claimed.
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Yes!! Artillery getting wrecked today!
> 57 * 66 - 14.02.2024 * 65 - 04.06.2024 * 64 - 07.06.2024 * 61 - 23.06.2024 & 24.01.2024 * 60 - 28.06.24 & 09.06.2024 * 59 - 25.01.2024 * 58 - 16.06.2024, 03.05.2024 & 15.11.2023 * **57 - 29.06.2024** * 55 - 11.05.2024 * 54 - 21.06.2024, 07.04.2024 & 15.02.2024 * 53 - 21.02.2024 * 51 - 24.06.2024, 10.06.2024, 31.01.2024 and 23.01.2024 * 50 - 20.05.2024, 05.04.2024, 6.03.2024 and maybe other days Inspired by: https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/19ea4hr/losses_of_the_russian_military_to_2412024/kjbns5x/ > Dutch-cooking-guy said: > According to https://www.reddit.com/r/RussianLosses/ it is a record: If error, please let me know. I think I checked every day, but it's possible I forgot to or recorded incorrectly.
And of that list, 10 of those 50+ days have come in this month of June. Edit: Miscounted
I counted 10
I like how the top number is valentine's day. From Ukraine with love mother fuckers.
It's crazy that 57 isn't even in the top 10 anymore
People sometimes talks about total russian reserves. But how many arty pieces does they actually have at the frontline working? Just curious.
Another questions is how many of their artillery total have been robbed of their barrels to replace erosive losses at the front.
Can’t wait until the S-500 is added to the stats
Also can't wait till Kerch Bridge gets added. But that requires a new type of item in the list so they might have to redesign it. 😭
I don't think it will happen until Ukraine decides to push the Kherson region, which i fully believe. It is the hardest to supply if they lose the bridges. It will happen when it is strategically the most important. If they did it now, they would have time to set up efficient alternate routes. As of now they kinda do, but they also don't. It would take a while to get re situated. As soon as they push that region towards Crimea, Crimea will have no way to supply itself.
They are setting up alternative routes for years now. The strategic importance of this bridge was at its maximum two years ago and unless Ukraine is cutting the land bridge it wont ever reach that importance again.
I think so too, plus RU has been able to do repairs fairly quickly
When that does happen it’s going to be quick I think
also ammo dumps, oil processing plants, and war factories ?
Day after day russia is becoming less significant. Good news for the future of humanity. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
Their nuclear arsenal is still what seems to keep them significant regardless of losses. I'm concerned that the country with the largest stockpile of WMDs gets pushed farther into a corner with each loss. They have less to lose, literally, as well. I know it's mostly just bluffing/posturing, but I feel like Putin is deranged enough to do anything. I hate to say it but I'm starting to think that Putin would rather launch the missiles than ever accept defeat and pull out entirely, which anything less than that probably won't be acceptable to Zelensky('s people)... Please tell me I'm wrong though, I'd love to be proven wrong on that one!!
As a country they did not lose anything yet. Should they decide to use nuclear weapons they will lose everything, including their lives, all of them. While putin may wish to do it, other people in the chain of command may cherish their and their families lives more than their allegiance to putin. I am not concerned at all about nuclear weapons being used, they were never meant to anyway, they are a deterrent that ensures that wars on 🌎 will be fought with conventional weapons.
Speed run to 600K
To #1 million
This was my thought! It’s almost like they are trying to make that number go up faster.
Good.
When did they reach 500,000? End of May? 40,000 since the end of May! 200,000 b4 the end of Nov? 750,000 by Christmas? This is unsustainable. Putz needs help to the River Styx.
It was a little earlier than the end of May when the 500,000th Russian was eliminated. Tomorrow will be very close to reaching 35,000 for June. This would be the largest month ever except May was so much better than everything
He's hoping to have some North Korean bodies to add to the funeral pile shortly.
[удалено]
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Hardly ever hear of the River Styx anymore
Better dust off my 20,000 Vehices & Fuel Tanks hat.
Tanks back down to single-digit. Guess we wait for the next train-load to turn up.
Russian artillerycraft number are looking spicy.
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Say it louder for those in the back!
My goodness is orc artillery feeling the pain. Good
More more more please.
[Daily stats](https://www.reddit.com/r/RussianLosses/comments/1dr2lei/estimated_russian_losses_from_24022022_to/)
How do the uaf manage to destroy that much of artillery the last weeks, have there been any new weapons given to do such?
The general feedback loop is ukraine getting better longer range artillery while russia uses older and shorter range stuff, making counterbattery fire effective for Ukraine.
Drones doing recon or FPV’s and really accurate counter Battery fire
it seems they are using satellite/radar intelligence info.
How many tanks do they possibly have left? I thought I heard at the beginning they were supposed to have something like 10,500 but a good chunk were believed to be junk / parts / inoperable…
Euromaidan's graphic the other day said Russia's lost about 56% of their total pre-war stockpiles of artillery, tanks, and APVs. I don't recall the exact number for each category, but it was in that vicinity. That also doesn't have any way of judging how many 'stores' vehicles have already been stripped for parts or are unrecoverable, and of course they'll have taken the best-condition stuff first, so what's left is likely worse and worse. So Russia's entire supply now is under 45% of where they started, and picked over. At a rate of 40 artillery losses a day, that looks like less than four months before Moscow has to start rationing their artillery pieces.
"At a rate of 40 artillery losses a day, that looks like less than four months before Moscow has to start rationing their artillery pieces." Considering barrel wearouts etc. They have probably been rationing replacements for some time already. For most of 2022 The Russians were shooting 60,000 rounds per day. At 5000 rounds per barrel expected life ,that comes to 12 barrel equivalents per day, or for nine months 3240 barrels needing replacement. They had about 10,000 pieces to start including what was in storage with 4000 of the total SPGs, So they must be well into what they have bought from Iran and North Korea.
I hope it’s sooner. No sign yet of a serious peace plan from Russia.
Well they have already played the ‘can we have peace where the lines are now’ card, so things are looking up. No ruZZia, fuck off back to your own country if you want peace.
What kind of peace plan would Russia possibly offer anyway? Even if they offered to return to the 2020 de facto borders, with them keeping Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea, that would still be unacceptable to Ukraine. Russia having Crimea means Russia being able to attack Ukrainian shipping, so that's a no-go, and they won't give up on that. Any possible peace plan other than total military victory for Ukraine would require Ukraine to concede territory, and Ukraine is not giving any signs of willingness to do that. Even if Ukraine does take back control over its territory by force of arms, Putin would rather stay sanctioned forever than sign any peace plan conceding Ukraine's territorial integrity and admitting he was wrong to invade, so I expect a permanently militarized border afterward.
The rate coming from the stockpile keeps slowing, so the end of the stockpile keeps getting further away. If the maximum tanks 02/2022 was 10,500 - 3,400 active, there is a stockpile of 7,100. Reactivating at 120 a month would take 5 years. The first 2.5 years, activating around 3,600 tanks, starting with a fleet of 3,400, and gaining around 200 tanks from other countries, making 150 new, that's 7,350 tanks, or 8 tanks per day. So the next 2.5 years, if they double their new production to 10 a month, activate 120 a month, Ukraine will face a maximum of 130 tanks a month, 4 a day, unless Russia pauses to build up force. 4-5 is close to their confirmed losses per day for last 3 months. If activation rates slows to 0 over 2.5 years, Ukraine will face less and less tanks, or you will see longer and longer pauses between offensives.
People were talking about russia running out of stuff since... well, a couple weeks after the war started basically. People need to stop this. Its harmful to Ukraine. Ukraine needs the weapons to beat Russia even if Russia doesnt "run out" of its basic systems. We dont know the actual russian losses. These number are claims by Ukraine. We dont know the actual pre war stock. We dont know the actual production. We dont know how much russia can buy. We cant rely on russia running out on anything. It may take years and years before that happens.
There's truth to your claim that declaring or even speculating in the imminent collapse of the Russian war effort can be harmfull to Ukraine as it risks leading to disappointment and exhaustion and worse yet, to a lack of the required support from other countries. However, the opposite approach, that Russias resources are endless, is even more dangerous as it leads many people to believe that Ukraine is a lost cause. That was the prevalent oppinion back in february 22 and it resulted in a complete lack of adequate western backing which still haunts Ukraine. Selling the message that this is a war that Ukraine can and must win but that it might continue to be an up hill struggle for many years to come, is a difficult task - especially in the comfortable west. I think therefore that it's right to rejoice in catastrophic russian losses while acknowledging that the war wont be won just because Russia runs out of this or that. There can be a long way to go anyway but the light at the end of the tunnel can actually be seen now. We just need to support Ukraine and in an emphatic way which most countries unfortunally don't and therefore it's not to late for Ukraine to lose, russian tanks or no russian tanks.
Another great day for artillery numbers.
Damn! Nice work Ukrainian Army! 🇺🇦💪🇺🇦
Wow, almost 550k messed up. Keep up the great work Ukrainian army.
All of those dead and wounded are someone’s child.
I always wonder how accurate the larger numbers are. Warships, aircraft sure, those are very accurate, easy to identify. Most likely helicopters are 99-100% valid too. Tanks are in the ballpark. But the APVs and the personnel, standard artillery e.g. mortars...? EDIT: Thanks, could just answer or link something instead of downvoting.
Way more accurate than you would think considering how others would take the opportunity to use it for propaganda purposes. It looks like a genuine attempt at recording, with double counting and false recollections that come with how the human mind works. Artillery and personnel are going to be hard, because there's so much of it, and there's so little left of it when artillery has blown it up.
Yes, and therefore it has been a great relief to see bukhankas, golf carts, garden sheds etc which should convince you that russian losses has been enormous and hurting them badly whether the true numbers are thousands more or less than the claimed.
If they send North Koreans to the front lines these numbers are going to go through the roof.
What are Ukrainian losses? Hope much les than Russian.